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1、SOFTENING GROWTH AMID A DARKENED GLOBAL OUTLOOKadb.org/outlookDeveloping Asias recovery progresses even as challenges mount Since the April Asian Development Outlook,various headwinds have strengthened:Russian invasion of Ukraine has raised uncertainty,reinforced supply disruptions,and unsettled ene

2、rgy and food markets,boosting inflation More aggressive tightening by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks isdenting global demand and rattling financial markets Zero-COVID lockdowns in the PRC threaten growth and supply chains Developing Asia is now projected to grow more slowly,from 5.2%

3、to 4.3%for 2022 andfrom 5.3%to 4.9%for 2023 Inflation forecasts are revised upfrom 3.7%to 4.5%for 2022,and from 3.1%to 4.0%for 2023on higher energy and food prices Several downside risks loom large,including a sharp deceleration in global growth,stronger-than-expected monetary policy tightening,esca

4、lation of the Russian invasion ofUkraine,deeper-than-expected deceleration in the PRC,and negative pandemicdevelopments2The pandemic lingers,but declining COVID-19 mortality riskDaily new COVID-19 cases,7-day moving averageCOVID-19=coronavirus disease.Source:Our World in Data(accessed 1 September 20

5、22).COVID-19 case fatality ratesAfter surging globally early this year,COVID-19 cases have fallen and are at low levels in developing Asia.Confirmed COVID-19 fatality rates fell across the world this year301,0002,0003,0004,000Developing AsiaEuropean UnionUSOmicron COVID-19 variantNew cases,7-day mov

6、ing average,thousandWorld2.01.61.72.31.10.90.71.70123WorldDeveloping AsiaAdvanced economiesEmerging economies%Case fatality rate,25 November 2021Case fatality rate,30 August 2022Note:The World Health Organization classified Omicron as a variant of concern on 26 November 2021.The case fatality rate i

7、s the number of confirmed deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases.Source:Mortality Risk of COVID-19-Our World in Data(accessed 1 September 2022)is allowing more flexible containment policies,supporting economic activity4Reopening is supporting expansion of manufacturing and services.Purchasi

8、ng managers index(50 improving;50 worsening)More flexible pandemic containment measures are being rolled out,but not in the PRC.Government stringency index Manufacturing PMI,seasonally adjustedJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugIndia57.757.555.455.550.848.155.352.353.755.957

9、.655.554.054.954.054.754.653.956.456.2Indonesia52.250.953.254.655.353.540.143.752.257.253.953.553.751.251.351.950.850.251.351.7Malaysia48.947.749.953.951.339.940.143.448.152.252.352.850.550.949.651.650.150.450.650.3Philippines55.555.555.252.052.953.853.449.453.954.054.754.850.052.853.254.354.153.850

10、.851.2PRC51.550.950.651.952.051.350.349.250.050.649.950.949.150.448.146.048.151.750.449.5Republic of Korea53.255.355.354.653.753.953.051.252.450.250.951.952.853.851.252.151.851.349.847.6Taipei,China60.260.460.862.462.057.659.758.554.755.254.955.555.154.354.151.750.049.844.642.7Thailand49.047.248.850

11、.747.849.548.748.348.950.950.649.551.752.551.851.951.950.752.453.7Viet Nam51.351.653.654.753.144.145.140.240.252.152.252.553.754.351.751.754.754.051.252.7Services PMI,seasonally adjustedIndia52.855.354.654.046.441.245.456.755.258.458.155.551.551.853.657.958.959.255.557.2PRC52.051.554.356.355.150.354

12、.946.753.453.852.153.151.450.242.036.241.454.555.555.0Whole Economy PMI,seasonally adjustedHong Kong,China47.850.250.550.352.551.451.353.351.750.852.650.848.942.942.051.754.952.452.351.2Singapore52.954.953.551.854.450.156.752.153.852.352.055.154.452.552.956.759.457.558.056.0Delta COVID-19 variantOmi

13、cron COVID-19 variantQ2EconomyQ12021Q4Q2Q32022Q1Q30102030405060708090100Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22RangeDeveloping Asia excl.PRCPeoples Republic of ChinaindexDelta variantOmicron variantCOVID-19=Coronavirus Disease 2019,PRC=Peoples Republic of China.Note:The go

14、vernment stringency index measures on a 0-100 scale the degree of containment and closure policies.A higher score indicates a stricter response.Developing Asia line plots the average for all economies with data.Source:Our World in Data(accessed 5 September 2022).PMI=Purchasing managers index PRC=Peo

15、ples Republic of China,Q=quarter.Notes:The PMI is an indicator of business activity.Pink to red indicates deterioration(50).Source:CEIC Data Company(accessed 2 September 2022).and allowing domestic demand to strengthen.5Demand-side contributions to growthH1=first half,PRC=Peoples Republic of China,R

16、OK=Republic of KoreaSource:CEIC Data Company(accessed 1 September 2022).With reopening and increased mobility,consumption and investment recovered and have driven economic growth8.12.58.78.46.3-2.64.13.07.64.16.63.43.75.23.16.95.77.81.52.4-505101520212022H120212022H120212022H120212022H120212022H1202

17、12022H120212022H120212022H120212022H120212022H1PRCIndiaHong Kong,ChinaROKSingaporeTaipei,ChinaIndonesiaMalaysiaPhilippinesThailandPercentage pointsNet exportsInvestmentConsumption2021 GDP growth,yoy2022 H1 GDP growth,yoyFood and oil prices have fallen back to pre-invasion levels,but natural gas pric

18、es have surgedPrices of key agricultural productsPrices of energy productsMMBtu=million British thermal units,US=United States.Notes:For energy,data refer to the dated Brent crude spot price,LNG Japan/Korea Marker Swap Futures(Asia),and TTF Futures(Europe).For food,data refer to prices of Thailand 5

19、%rice(weekly data),Gulf Hard Red Winter wheat,Gulf No.2 Yellow corn(US).Source:Bloomberg(accessed 5 September 2022).Oil prices are decreasing on softening global demand,but natural gas prices are surging as Russias exports to Europe plungeFood prices remain high,but have fallen from their peaks on w

20、eaker demand prospects and improved crop expectations 6Inflation is trending upward,to varying degrees across economiesPrices in developing Asia increased less than in the US and euro area this year,but to varying degrees across subregions.7Headline inflationNote:Dark green denotes low inflation;dar

21、k red denotes high inflation,both relative to the range of inflation datapoints for all economies from December 2021 to June 2022.Sources:CEIC Data Company(accessed 4 September 2022);Solomon Islands National Statistics Office;Tonga Statistics Department,Vanuatu National Statistics OfficeSources:CEIC

22、 Data Company and Haver Analytics(both accessed 1 September 2022).Inflation remains highest in the Caucasus and Central Asia and rose faster in South Asia.-303691215Jan 2019Jul 2019Jan 2020Jul 2020Jan 2021Jul 2021Jan 2022Jul 2022%,year on yearDeveloping AsiaCaucasus and Central AsiaEast AsiaSouth As

23、iaSoutheast AsiaUnited StatesEuro areaEconomyDec 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022Jun 2022Jul 2022Armenia7.77.16.57.48.49.010.39.3Azerbaijan12.012.411.912.112.913.714.113.7Georgia13.913.913.711.812.813.312.811.5Kazakhstan8.48.58.712.013.214.014.515.0Kyrgyz Republic11.211.210.813.214.

24、514.013.113.8Tajikistan8.07.87.17.37.37.58.3Uzbekistan10.09.89.710.410.411.012.212.3Hong Kong,China2.41.21.61.71.31.21.81.9Mongolia13.414.614.214.414.415.216.115.7PRC1.50.90.91.52.12.12.52.7Korea,Rep.of3.73.63.74.14.85.46.06.3Taipei,China2.62.82.33.33.43.43.63.4Bangladesh6.15.96.26.26.37.47.67.5Indi

25、a5.76.06.17.07.87.07.06.7Maldives0.00.20.61.11.22.55.2Nepal7.15.66.07.17.37.98.68.1Pakistan12.313.012.212.713.413.821.324.9Sri Lanka14.016.817.521.533.845.358.966.7Brunei Darussalam2.22.83.23.83.93.8Cambodia3.74.16.37.27.37.27.8Indonesia1.92.22.12.63.53.64.34.9Lao PDR5.36.27.38.57.312.823.625.6Malay

26、sia3.22.32.22.22.32.83.44.4Myanmar12.613.814.117.317.8Philippines3.13.03.04.04.95.46.16.4Singapore4.04.04.35.45.45.66.77.0Thailand2.23.25.35.74.67.17.77.6Viet Nam1.81.91.42.42.62.93.43.1Fiji3.02.71.94.74.75.05.15.2Papua New Guinea5.76.9Solomon Islands2.62.0-1.1-2.71.54.3Tonga9.28.29.07.99.411.211.31

27、3.1Vanuatu0.72.7Central Asia and CaucasusEast AsiaSoutheast AsiaThe PacificSouth Asiadriven by rising food and energy prices.8Contributions to average inflation,January to July 2022PRC=Peoples Republic of China.LAO PDR=Lao Peoples Democratic Republic.Notes:Data for Cambodia,Malaysia,Maldives,and Ton

28、ga refer to January to June 2022;while that for Solomon Islands and Brunei Darussalam,up to May;Myanmar and Vanuatu,up to March.For lack of a more disaggregated breakdown,energy-related consumer prices for most economies includes housing,water,and non-fuel transport.Developing Asia is calculated as

29、the weighted average of all economies covered.Source:Staff calculations using data from Haver Analytics;CEIC Data Company;national sources(29 August 2022).Contributions to inflation differ across the region,with food prices playing the main role in high-inflation economies.Exports remain healthy,but

30、 clouds gather on the horizon9PRC=Peoples Republic of ChinaNote:Developing Asia excluding the PRC comprises Hong Kong,China,India,Indonesia,the Republic of Korea,Malaysia,Pakistan,Singapore,Taipei,China,Thailand,and Viet Nam.Data are seasonally adjusted.Sources:CEIC Data Company;CPB World Trade Moni

31、tor(both accessed 30 August 2022).Nominal exportsPRC=Peoples Republic of China.Source:IHS Markit(accessed 4 September 2022).Exports remained healthy in developing Asia in the first half of this year.But manufacturing export orders are weakening,particularly for the two leading exporters of electroni

32、c inputs.Manufacturing export orders(50 improving;10%of GDPAverage of the same quarter in 20182019=100A.Rebound since 2021B.Rebound since JanuaryC.No rebound yet-100-50050100Jul2019Jul2020Jul2021Jul2022ArmeniaFijiGeorgiaIndiaMaldivesNepalSri Lanka-100-50050100Jul2019Jul2020Jul2021Jul2022CambodiaIndo

33、nesiaPhilippinesSingaporeThailandViet NamMalaysia-100-50050100Jul2019Jul2020Jul2021Jul2022BhutanHong Kong,ChinaMyanmarPalauRepublic of KoreaTaipei,ChinaTongaVanuatu4070100130160190220Q12019Q12020Q12021Q12022BangladeshCambodiaFijiPakistanPhilippinesSri Lanka4070100130160190220Q12019Q12020Q12021Q12022

34、ArmeniaGeorgiaKyrgyz RepublicNepalSamoaTajikistanTongaUzbekistanMonetary policy tightening in the region has acceleratedChange in policy interest rates(selected economies)ECB=European Central Bank,PRC=Peoples Republic of ChinaSource:Bloomberg(accessed 31 August 2022).Following 14 rate increases in Q

35、1,central banks in developing Asia hiked rates 29 times from April to Augustto curb inflation and safeguard macro-financial stability.1112Equity market performance Financial conditions remain tighter than in April,despite easing in Q3Asian equity markets retreated in Q2 but partly recovered in Q3,cl

36、osely tracking expectations on Fed tightening.FOMC=Federal Open Market Committee.Note:Non-Asia emerging markets include Brazil,Russian Federation,and South Africa.Source:Bloomberg(accessed 1 Sep 2022).JP Morgan EMBI stripped spreads,selected Asian economiesSimilarly,risk premiums increased in Q2 and

37、 then declinedNote:JP Morgan EMBIG(Emerging Market Bond Index Global)index is a benchmark index to capture government bondperformance in global emerging markets,developed by JP Morgan.Non-Asia emerging markets include Argentina,Brazil,Mexico,Poland,South Africa,and Republic of Trkiye.Source:Bloomber

38、g(both accessed 1 Sep 2022).708090100110120Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-221 January 2022=100Caucasus and Central AsiaEast AsiaSouth AsiaSoutheast AsiaUnited StatesNon-Asia emerging marketsJune FOMC meetingMay FOMC Less hawkish than expected forward guidanceLockdown in PRC;hawkish Fe

39、d forward guidance40-year high US inflation HawkishFed forward guidance70130190250Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-221 January 2022=100Caucasus and Central AsiaEast AsiaSouth AsiaSoutheast AsiaThe PacificDeveloping AsiaNon-Asia emerging markets13Currencies continued to depreciate

40、against the US dollar,on Fed tightening and growth headwinds.Exchange rate movementsCurrency depreciations and portfolio outflows continued,but FDI remained robust on solid medium-term fundamentalsNote:FDI inflow to select Asian economies include Armenia,Azerbaijan,Bangladesh,PRC,Georgia,Hong Kong,C

41、hina,India,Indonesia,Kazakhstan,Malaysia,Nepal,Pakistan,Philippines,Singapore,Solomon Islands,and Thailand.Source:Bloomberg(accessed 1 Sep 2022).Note:Negative values indicate currency depreciation against US dollar and positive value indicate currency appreciation against US dollar.Real effective ex

42、change rate indicates an economys international competitiveness in comparison with its trade partner.Source:Bloomberg(accessed 1 Sep 2022).Foreign investment flows into the regionForeign portfolio outflows continued in Q2 and reverted in Q3,while FDI posted robust growth in Q1.-375-250-1250125250-3-

43、2-1012Dec-20Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Developing AsiaDeveloping Asia excluding PRCPeoples Republic of China$billion,3-week moving average$billionFDI inflow to select Asian economies Average FDI from Q1 2018 to Q4 201914Global demand is expected to softenBaseline assumptions on the internat

44、ional economyaAverage growth rates are weighed by GDP purchasing power.Sources:Bloomberg;CEIC Data Company;Haver Analytics;IMF World Economic Outlook;Asian Development Bank estimates.20222023AprADO 2022SepUpdateAprADO 2022SepUpdateGDP growth,%Major advanced economiesa3.51.92.41.0United States3.91.62

45、.31.0Euro area3.32.52.60.7Japan2.71.41.81.6Brent crude spot prices,average,$/barrel107.00106.0093.0095.00Headline inflation,major economies average,%4.87.22.13.0High inflation prompted the US and the euro area to tighten monetary policy,which will eventually weaken global demand.152022202320222023Ap

46、rADO 2022SepUpdateAprADO 2022SepUpdateAprADO 2022SepUpdateAprADO 2022SepUpdateDeveloping Asia(DA)5.24.35.34.9DA excluding the PRC5.55.35.85.3Caucasus&Central Asia3.63.94.04.2Kazakhstan3.23.03.93.7East Asia4.73.24.54.2Hong Kong,China2.00.23.73.7Southeast Asia4.95.15.25.0Peoples Rep.of China5.03.34.84

47、.5Indonesia5.05.45.25.0Republic of Korea3.02.62.62.3Malaysia6.06.05.44.7Taipei,China3.83.43.03.0Philippines6.06.56.36.3Singapore4.33.73.23.0South Asia7.06.57.46.5Thailand3.02.94.54.2India7.57.08.07.2Viet Nam6.56.56.76.7The Pacific3.94.75.45.5Revisions to the growth outlook vary across subregionsGDP

48、growth,%Notes:Data for India are on fiscal year basis,with FY2022 ending 31 March 2023.=forecast increased,=forecast decreased,=no change.Source:Asian Development Outlook database.Growth is forecast to weaken in East and South Asia but improve in the other subregionsRisks to the outlook are skewed t

49、o the downside Sharp deceleration in global growth Stronger-than-expected monetary policy tightening in advanced economies Escalation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its spillovers on global commodity markets remain a threat A deeper-than-expected deceleration in the PRC Negative pandemic dev

50、elopments,such as the emergence of new COVID-19 variants Other risks:debt and fragilities,geopolitical tensions,food insecurity,climate change.16adb.org/outlookDigital entrepreneurship can become an engine of growth.Sustained economic growth depends on a vibrant private sector,which depends on the e

51、mergence of entrepreneurs who start and run businesses.On-going digitalization of economy has opened up a world of entrepreneurial opportunities.Singapore offers global best environment for digital entrepreneurs,but most developing Asian economies must improve digital entrepreneurship environments.A

52、 one-standard deviation in GIDES is associated with an 8.2 percentage point in the probability of a new business innovating.18Singapore tops the world in digital entrepreneurship environment;most economies in the region must improve.Note:Red=top tier of entrepreneurship environment,orange=2nd best t

53、ier,yellow=3rdbest tier,green=4thbest tier,blue=bottom tierSource:Autio,E.et al.2022.Asian Index of Digital EntrepreneurshipSystems 2021.Asian Development Bank.54.143.135.328.327.426.0 25.925.523.120.419.618.517.5 17.215.212.8 12.5 12.3 12.011.50.015.030.045.060.0GIDES score,0-100GIDES 2021 score an

54、d global ranking of Developing Asian economies(out of 113 economies)81.3.but sound institutions remain vital for entrepreneurs Institutions such as property rights protection benefit entrepreneurs by mitigating risk and uncertainty.Analysis of 230,000 individuals in 15 economies confirms a positive

55、link between an economys institutional environment and productivity of its entrepreneurs.For instance,a one-standard deviation improvement in rule of law was associated with a 5.4 percentage point increase in the likelihood of product innovation by a new business.19There is an economically significa

56、nt link between country-level institutions and individual-level entrepreneurial productivity.Estimates are statistically significant at 1 percent level.New businesses are businesses that are less than 42months old.Business registration cost is in percent of per capita income.Rule of law is a measure

57、 of theextent to which individuals and firms have confidence in and abide by the rules of society.Private credit toGDP ratio is a proxy for financial development.Source:Autio,E.andK.Fu.2022.Country-LevelInstitutionalConditionsandIndividual-Level EntrepreneurshipDynamics.Asian Development Bank.Develo

58、ping Asias recovery progresses even as challenges mount Since the April Asian Development Outlook,various headwinds have strengthened:Russian invasion of Ukraine has raised uncertainty,reinforced supply disruptions,and unsettled energy and food markets,boosting inflation More aggressive tightening b

59、y the US Federal Reserve and other central banks isdenting global demand and rattling financial markets Zero-COVID lockdowns in the PRC threaten growth and supply chains Developing Asia is now projected to grow more slowly,from 5.2%to 4.3%for 2022 andfrom 5.3%to 4.9%for 2023 Inflation forecasts are

60、revised upfrom 3.7%to 4.5%for 2022,and from 3.1%to 4.0%for 2023on higher energy and food prices Several downside risks loom large,including a sharp deceleration in global growth,stronger-than-expected monetary policy tightening,escalation of the Russian invasion ofUkraine,deeper-than-expected deceleration in the PRC,and negative pandemicdevelopments20