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1、Renewable energy targets in 2022A guide to design IRENA 2022Unless otherwise stated,material in this publication may be freely used,shared,copied,reproduced,printed and/or stored,provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright holder.Material in this publicati

2、on that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions,and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material.ISBN:978-92-9260-480-6Citation:IRENA(2022),Renewable energy targets in 2022:A guide to design,In

3、ternational Renewable Energy Agency,Abu Dhabi.ABOUT IRENAThe International Renewable Energy Agency(IRENA)is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future and serves as the principal platform for international co-operation,a centre of exc

4、ellence,and a repository of policy,technology,resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy.IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy,including bioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solar and wind energy,in the pursuit of sustainable developme

5、nt,energy access,energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity.www.irena.orgACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThis report was developed under the guidance of Rabia Ferroukhi(Director,IRENA Knowledge,Policy and Finance Centre)and Ute Collier,and authored by Diala Hawila,Faran Rana,Abdullah Abou Ali and

6、 Arslan Khalid(IRENA),Costanza Strinati and Sufyan Diab(former IRENA colleagues),Miquel Muoz Cabr(Stockholm Environment Institute),David Jacobs(IET Consulting)and Toby Couture(E3 Analytics),with valuable contributions from Adrian Whiteman,Nazik Elhassan,Sonia Rueda Silva,Emanuele Bianco,Jinlei Feng,

7、Imen Gherboudj,and Gerardo Escamilla(IRENA),Paola Prez(Tufts University)and Michelle Benaderet(Boston University).Valuable review and feedback were provided by IRENA colleagues Aleksandra Prodan,lvaro Lpez-Pea,Arieta Gonelevu Rakai,Badariah Yosiyana,Binu Parthan,Camilo Ramirez Isaza,Elizabeth Njoki

8、Wanjiru,Ines Jacob,Joong Yeop Lee,Jos Torn,Kamlesh Dookayka,Kamran Siddiqui,Karanpreet Kaur,Margaret Suh,Nadia Mohammed,Petya Icheva,Paul Komor,Simon Benmarraze,Toyo Kawabata,Wilson Matekenya and Zoheir Hamedi.Valuable external review was provided by Katarina Uherova Hasbani(AESG).The report was edi

9、ted by Justin French-Brooks.Cover image credits: and .IRENA is grateful for the generous support for this report provided by the Walloon government.For further information or to provide feedback:publicationsirena.org.Available for download:www.irena.org/publications.DISCLAIMERThis publication and th

10、e material herein are provided“as is”.All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication.However,neither IRENA nor any of its officials,agents,data or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind,either expressed o

11、r implied,and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein.The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA.The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply

12、 that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region,country,terri

13、tory,city or area or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries.3CONTENTS SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS 7 INTRODUCTION 151 NDCS AND OTHER COMMITMENTS TOWARDS CLIMATE OBJECTIVES 181.1 Momentum for global climate action and updates on NDCs since COP26 191.2 Net zero targe

14、ts and commitments 211.3 Fossil fuel phase-out(phase-down)targets 252 RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS IN NATIONAL PLANS 292.1 Trends in renewable energy targets 302.2 Quantification and analysis of renewable energy targets in the power sector 413 KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR TARGET SETTING 503.1 Objectives and c

15、ontext for renewable energy target setting 523.2 The statistical basis for renewable energy targets 573.3 The scope of targets sector coverage and end uses 603.4 The indicator used for targets when they are defined as a share of a mix 613.5 The indicator used for targets when they are defined as an

16、absolute amount 653.6 Technology specificity of targets 673.7 Modalities for target implementation 684 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 76 ANNEX 1:METHODOLOGY 81 ANNEX 2:RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS IN NATIONAL ENERGY PLANS 82 REFERENCES 112FIGURES 4TABLES 5BOXES 5ABBREVIATIONS 64FIGURESFigure S1 Renewab

17、le energy targets in NDCs(as of 16 October 2022)8Figure S2 Number of countries with renewable power targets in NDCs and national energy plans,by region and country grouping 9Figure S3 Global cumulative renewable power,installed capacity,historical trends and future projections 10Figure S4 Aggregate

18、targeted renewable electricity capacity by 2030 by region,country grouping,and technology 11Figure S5 Key decisions for renewable energy target setting 14Figure 1.1 CO2 emission trajectories based on COP26 announcements and the WETO 1.5C Scenario 18Figure 1.2 NDCs by ambition and share of global emi

19、ssions(as of 16 October 2022)19Figure 1.3 Renewable energy targets in NDCs(as of 16 October 2022)20Figure 1.4 Companies net zero targets by status as of August 2022 24Figure 2.1 Role of targets at different stages of policy-making 29Figure 2.2 The role of renewable energy in the energy transition 30

20、Figure 2.3 Hydrogen strategies,including those in preparation as of June 2022 35Figure 2.4 Total electrolyser 2030 targets,globally,as of September 2022 36Figure 2.5 Number of cities with renewable energy targets,by region as of the end of 2021 37Figure 2.6 Companies with 100%renewable energy target

21、s by sector,as of August 2022 38Figure 2.7 Aggregate targeted renewable electricity capacity by 2030 by region,country grouping and technology 42Figure 2.8 Aggregate targeted renewable electricity capacity by 2030,by technology,total target capacity(left)and remaining target capacity(right)43Figure

22、2.9 Progress made on aggregated targets for 2030,by region,as of 2021 44Figure 2.10 Global cumulative installed capacity of renewable power,historical trends and future projections 45Figure 2.11 Global renewable power installed capacity in 2021,targeted capacity by 2030 and level needed as per IRENA

23、s 1.5C Scenario 46Figure 2.12 Number of countries with renewable power targets in NDCs and national energy plans,by region and country grouping 47Figure 3.1 Key decisions for renewable energy target setting 51Figure 3.2 Percentage of population with access to electricity and clean cooking to reach t

24、he targets set in SDG7 53Figure 3.3 Factors affecting future electricity demand 57Figure 3.4 Spectrum of renewable energy targets 71Figure 3.5 Evolution of renewable energy targets in the European Union 73Figure 3.6 Data needed before the setting of the target,while monitoring the progress and after

25、 the achievement of the target 74Cover credits:S and F5TABLESBOXESTable 1.1 Jurisdictions with net zero pledges,divided into high emitters(G20),low emitters(LDCs and SIDS)and others according to the Net Zero Tracker by October 2022 22Table 1.2 Coal-phase out commitments and plans of selected countri

26、es 25Table 3.1 Decision on the statistical basis of targets 59Table 3.2 Decision on the scope of targets sector coverage and end uses 60Table 3.3 Decision on the indicator for share of total energy targets TPES or TFEC 62Table 3.4 Decision on the indicator for share of electricity generation or inst

27、alled capacity 63Table 3.5 Decision on the indicator for the share of renewables in end-use targets 65Table 3.6 Decision on the indicator for power targets-Capacity based vs.output based 66Table 3.7 Decision on the indicator for green gas targets output or capacity/unit based 67Table 3.8 Decision on

28、 technology specificity of targets 68Table 3.9 Indicators for achieving Chinas 14th FYP 69Table 3.10 Decision on long-term and short-term targets 70Table 3.11 Examples of data collection objectives and data needs 74Box 1.1 Net zero targets announced by companies as of August 2022 24Box 1.2 Six-month

29、 progress update on South Africas Just Transition Partnership 27Box 2.1 The main functions of renewable energy targets 29Box 2.2 Ecuadors targets and policy measures to transition to electric cooking 34Box 2.3 IRENAs Beyond Food initiative:Clean cooking and climate action through electrification 35B

30、ox 2.4 Renewable energy targets at the company level the RE100 38Box 2.5 The US governments socio-economic aims for the deployment of renewables 40Box 2.6 Methodology for quantifying renewable power targets and assumptions for major renewable energy players 41Box 3.1 I ncrease in ambition of renewab

31、le energy targets in the European Union REPowerEU 54Box 3.2 Potential socio-economic impacts of the energy transition in Africa with a comprehensive policy framework 55Box 3.3 IRENAs work on resource assessment 56Box 3.4 The European Union 2020 renewable energy targets 58Box 3.5 The United Kingdoms

32、Net Zero Strategy 61Box 3.6 Chinas 14th Five-Year Plan 69Box 3.7 Compliance with renewable energy targets and renewable portfolio standards in the EuropeanUnion,the United States and the Philippines 726 ABBREVIATIONSCSP concentrated solar powerETS emissions trading systemEV electric vehicleFCV fuel

33、cell vehicleFIT feed-in tariffGIS geographic information systemGDP gross domestic productGHG greenhouse gasJETS Just Energy Transition PartnershipLCOE levelised cost of electricityLDC least developed countriesLPG liquefied petroleum gasMENA Middle East and North AfricaNDC Nationally Determined Contr

34、ibutionPV photovoltaicRPS renewable portfolio standardsSDG Sustainable Development GoalSIDS small island developing statesSWH solar water heaterTFEC total final energy consumptionTPES total primary energy supplyWETO World energy transitions outlookUNITS OF MEASUREGt gigatonneGW gigawattGWh gigawatt

35、hourkg kilogramkt kilotonnekW kilowattkWh kilowatt hourMtce million tonnes of coal equivalentMW megawattMWh megawatt hourTW terawatt7A guide to designRenewable energy targets in 2022 SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERSGLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL WHY URGENT CHANGE IS NEEDEDThe summer of 2022 has giv

36、en the world a glimpse of a future in which the fight against climate change has been lost.Temperatures are on the rise.July 2022 was the 46th consecutive July and the 451st consecutive month with temperatures exceeding the average for the 20th century(National Centers for Environmental Information,

37、2022).Heatwaves caused wildfires of unprecedented severity in Europe and the UnitedStates.Drought frequency and duration have increased by nearly a third since 2000 and water restrictions have been imposed in numerous jurisdictions,including in France,the United States and southwest China.Climate ch

38、ange is negatively affecting harvests and pushing up food prices globally,leaving 18 million people in Africa facing the risk of severe hunger(World Economic Forum,2022).In Pakistan,which contributes less than 1%of annual global greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions,major climate-induced flooding left almost

39、 one-third of the country submerged,washing away half the countrys crops and causing significant food shortages(BBC News,2022).Multiple crises and the conflict in Ukraine reveal the fragility of a fossil fuel-based energy system.Food prices were already high globally,as the world grapples with recor

40、d-high inflation and energy prices,partly due to the conflict in Ukraine.In the European Union,electricity prices rose to historic levels in 2022.Meanwhile,some 2.4 billion people still relied on traditional biomass for cooking in 2020 and 733millionpeople remained without access to electricity.In m

41、any countries,where there is access to electricity it is unreliable,slowing down socio-economic development.At the same time,supply chain disruptions,permitting and licensing issues,along with other political and regulatory barriers are impeding the development of urgently needed renewable energy pr

42、ojects.The focus of renewable energy policy on cost-competitiveness has led to the concentration of supply chains in a small number of countries.Trade issues and COVID-related lockdowns have disrupted the supply of key components and equipment from those countries to the rest of the world,demonstrat

43、ing the vulnerability of this model and the value of localisation.These developments show the need for immediate action to increase ambition for renewable energy deployment,for climate goals,energy security and affordability,and to ensure universal basic rights such as access to energy,food and wate

44、r.Recent developments also show that greater ambition is needed for the development of local supply chains that can contribute to energy security.This report sets out to support governments in designing renewable energy targets that can help achieve the pressing objectives of reducing GHG emissions

45、from burning fossil fuels,increasing resilience to climate impacts,limiting the dependence on energy imports,and achieving universal access to clean,affordable and reliable energy.While the report focuses mainly on national-level renewable energy targets,the lessons and insights apply to targets ado

46、pted by other levels of government.8 Summary for policy makersCLIMATE PLEDGES MADE TO DATE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED TO UNLOCK THE FULL POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE ENERGY,WHICH REMAINS LARGELY UNTAPPED Almost all countries have signed the Paris Agreement and submitted Nationally Determined Contrib

47、utions(NDCs),but the collective level of ambition of the commitments made to date is still not enough to limit global temperature rise to 1.5C.Since the signing of the Paris Agreement,194 Parties have submitted NDCs.Since COP26 in November 2021,24 countries had updated their NDCs(up to 16 October 20

48、22),8 out of which have updated their NDCs following the Glasgow Climate Pact that requested Parties to revisit and strengthen the 2030 targets in their NDCs by the end of 2022.Renewable energy is one of the key components of the energy transition,but not all countries have included targets for thei

49、r deployment in their NDCs.As of 16 October 2022,183 Parties had included renewable energy components in their NDCs,of which only 143 had a quantified target.Of these targets,108 focus on power and only 31 have targets for heating and cooling,transport or cooking.Only 12 Parties had committed to a p

50、ercentage of renewables in their overall energy mixes.Of the 108 Parties that had defined targets for renewables in the power sector in their NDCs,47 presented them only in the form of additions mostly in the form of capacity(GW)and a few in terms of output(GWh).Of the 61 Parties with targets define

51、d as a share of the power mix,13 commit to achieving a renewable energy share lower than 24%,23 commit to a share between 25%and 59%,13 commit to shares between 60%and 89%,and 12 committed to shares between 90%to 100%(see Figure S1).The design elements of renewable energy targets are detailed furthe

52、r in Chapter 3 of this report.Parties Parties Power targetParties Parties 12Parties 90-100%13Parties 60-89%23Parties 25-59%13Parties 0-24%Targeted renewable sharein the electricity mix1831433112Total renewables mentionsRenewables targetPower target108Parties Parties Share-basedPercentage-based39Part

53、ies 22Parties 47Parties CombinationCapacity andoutput-basedFigure S1 Renewable energy targets in NDCs(as of 16 October 2022)9A guide to designRenewable energy targets in 2022 Commitments are being made outside the NDC process and beyond the 2030 time horizon.As of October 2022,137 countries,116 regi

54、ons and 237 cities had made net zero commitments for 2050 as reported by the Net Zero Tracker.Private companies have also made such pledges.Almost 700 out of the 2000largest publicly traded companies globally have or are considering a net zero target.Together these 700 companies represent more than

55、half of their cohorts total annual revenue in 2020(Net Zero Tracker,2022).However,many of them have not backed up these targets with operational plans and strategies,leaving open the question of whether they would be realised(Energy Tracker Asia,2022a).For renewable energy targets in NDCs to become

56、reality,they need to be aligned with renewable energy targets set in national energy plans and laws.As of mid-October 2022,82 countries had set renewable targets in the power sector in both national policies and NDCs,while 67 had set them only in national plans and 26 only in NDCs,and 21 countries p

57、arty to the Paris Agreement had not made any specific commitments(Figure S2).In most countries,renewable energy targets in NDC pledges do not align with those included in national energy plans.Aligning renewable energy targets in NDCs and national energy plans would increase the effectiveness and cr

58、edibility of both,and reinforce clear signals to investors,developers and other players across the supply chain,thus enabling further development of the renewable energy sector.In some cases,this will involve establishing or updating national targets.In other cases,it will mean including existing na

59、tional targets in the next round of NDCs.62722143151511248213479291044116710872611222726532115210%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%G20LDCsSIDSAsiaEuropeLatin Americaand the CaribbeanMiddle East and North AfricaNorth America and OceaniaSub-Saharan AfricaGlobalTargets in both national policies and NDCsT

60、argets in national policies onlyTargets in NDCs onlyNoneFigure S2 Number of countries with renewable power targets in NDCs and national energy plans,by region and country grouping10 Summary for policy makersFor renewable energy targets to be useful,they need to be ambitious enough to guide deploymen

61、t on a path that exceeds historical trends and current deployment levels.In IRENAs 1.5C Scenario,half of the total energy consumed comes from electricity by 2050,90%of which is renewables based.As such,targets in the power sector,along with electrification targets for end uses,play a major role in d

62、ecarbonising the energy sector.In order to keep the world on track to achieving the energy transition as per IRENAs 1.5C Scenario by 2050,the level of ambition of renewable energy power targets set in national plans and strategies for 2030 needs to at least double.In fact,non-ambitious targets may e

63、ffectively act as a cap on renewables,hindering rather than promoting their deployment.IRENAs quantification of renewable energy targets in the power sector globally finds that existing targets aim to increase the total renewable capacity stock to 5.4terawatts(TW)by the end of this decade,which is h

64、alf of the 10.8TW needed according to IRENAs 1.5C Scenario(Figure S3).This is readily achievable,as the current targets are below the market pace and lag recent deployment levels.To meet the targets set for 2030,totalling 5.4 TW,countries would be aiming for an additional 2.3TW by 2030,equivalent to

65、 average yearly additions of 259gigawatts(GW)in the next nineyears.This is below the capacity installed in the past two years.In 2020 and 2021,despite the complications that resulted from the pandemic and consequent supply chain disruptions,the world installed almost 261GW each year.Globally,the ren

66、ewable electricity capacity targeted for 2030 remains concentrated in a few regions and technologies.IRENAs quantification of renewable energy targets in the power sector shows that Asia(including China and India),with aggregated targets totalling 2.6 TW in 2030(from 1.5 TW installed in 2021)makes u

67、p around half of the global targeted capacity.Europe and North America and Oceania have targets to increase their renewable electricity capacity by almost 80%compared to 2021 levels,totalling 1 261 GW and 908 GW by 2030 respectively(Figure S4).02468101220102010201120122013201420152016201720182019202

68、02021202220232024202520262027202820292030HistoricalProjected based on targets 3.1 TW(Current)5.4 TW(Targeted)10.8 TW(IRENA 1.5C)TWHydropowerOnshore windOfshore windSolar PVCSPBioenergyGeothermalOtherFigure S3 Global cumulative renewable power,installed capacity,historical trends and future projectio

69、nsNotes:CSP=concentrated solar power;PV=photovoltaic.11A guide to designRenewable energy targets in 2022 The Middle East and North Africa(MENA)account for just 3%of global deployment targets for 2030(or 185 GW,up from 37 GW in 2021),despite the regions high potential and the unsatisfied need for rel

70、iable and secure energy in many countries.Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for just 2.6%of global targets for 2030,aiming for capacity of 140 GW by 2030(up from around 43 GW in 2021).Sustainable renewable energy is integral to Africas future,which currently hosts 77%of the worlds population without elect

71、ricity access.The countries targeting the highest level of deployment are all part of the G20,making up almost 90%of the global aggregate targeted capacity.Although least developed countries(LDCs)and small island developing states(SIDS)make up a small share of past renewable deployment,their aggrega

72、te targeted capacity totals 86 GW and 13GW respectively,both doubling their current renewable capacity.Countries renewable power targets mostly entail installing solar PV,onshore wind and offshore wind by 2030.Large shares of solar PV,onshore wind and offshore wind are expected,given the dramatic dr

73、op in the cost of these technologies an 88%,68%and 60%drop in their levelised cost of electricity(LCOE),respectively,between 2010 and 2021.Targets need to be set and ambition needs to increase in end uses heating and cooling,cooking,and transport in both NDCs and national energy plans.Stronger commi

74、tments are needed to drive the energy transition in end uses including harder-to-abate sectors(e.g.heavy industry).Heating and cooling,and transport account for about 80%of global energy demand,yet only 31 countries have set renewable energy targets for these end uses in their NDCs.When it comes to

75、national energy plans,only 40 countries had renewable heating and cooling targets by mid-2022,most of which are in Europe.Of these,30countries had set their targets as a percentage of all energy needed for heating and cooling without specifying the technology and 10 had set targets for specific tech

76、nologies.A handful of countries in sub-Saharan Africa have set targets for specific technologies(e.g.solar water heaters),including Kenya,Niger and Zimbabwe.5 397 GW2 602 GW1 261 GW908 GW301 GW185 GW140 GW4 800 GW993 GW86 GW13 GW01 0002 0003 0004 0005 0006 000GlobalAsiaEuropeNorth Americaand Oceania

77、Latin America and the CaribbeanMiddle Eastand North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaG20EU 27Least developedcountriesSmall islanddeveloping statesSolar PVOnshore windOfshore windHydropowerGeothermalBioenergyCSPOtherGW Figure S4 Aggregate targeted renewable electricity capacity by 2030 by region,country group

78、ing,and technology 12 Summary for policy makersFor the use of renewables in transport,only 33 countries have renewable energy targets in their national energy plans,focusing on biofuels.For example,in the European Union,countries should reach at least a 3.5%share of advanced biofuels in their overal

79、l 14%target for transport by 2030.Globally,policy support has focused on road transport,mainly in the form of mandates and incentives to support the production and use of biofuels.Countries such as India,Indonesia and Zimbabwe have set biofuel targets that aim to gradually increase the renewable sha

80、re of transport fuels.Policy support for renewable energy use in aviation and shipping remains modest.TARGETS NEED TO BE DESIGNED TO SERVE COUNTRY OBJECTIVES,AND THEIR DESIGN SHOULD CONSIDER THE SPECIFIC CONTEXT The main function of targets is to signal the countrys long-term political commitment to

81、 renewable energy,which is required to attract the investment needed to develop the sector.The more detailed,specific and credible the target is,the more likely it is to drive deployment,including through increased market confidence.This can ultimately translate into lower costs of capital and hence

82、 more project development.The main objectives behind the drive for renewable energy deployment in the country need to be put at centre stage of target setting.These may include GHG emission and pollution reduction,energy access,energy security,reliability and affordability,industry policies and soci

83、o-economic development goals.Target design should also consider the specific context of the respective jurisdiction.The factors to consider while designing targets include resource availability and the technical potential of various technologies to select the most suitable energy mix;future energy n

84、eeds across all end uses(considering energy efficiency targets)to avoid shortages or at the same time ensure resources are not wasted on overcapacity;the level of development of the renewable energy sector and existing infrastructure to make sure the targets are achievable within the set timeframe.W

85、hile designing targets,decisions need to be made regarding their statistical basis,scope and coverage in terms of sectors and end uses,indicators,technology specificity and modalities for implementation(Figure S5).These key design elements for targets are explained below and are discussed in further

86、 detail in Chapter 3.The statistical basis relates to whether targets are determined as a share of a mix relative to a baseline(e.g.share of energy supply,electricity generation mix,percentage of vehicles)or a fixed absolute amount(e.g.capacity added,number of solar water heaters installed).Although

87、 targets expressed as a share of the mix may provide more clarity on the level of ambition on climate goals,as they imply phasing out(or opting out)fossil fuel-based energy and systems,they can be difficult to implement and monitor.Absolute amount targets can provide clearer commitment from policy m

88、akers and more certainty for market participants and investors as they stipulate a specific quantity that must be installed or produced by a specified time.Section 3.2 provides further details.The scope and coverage relate to whether the target covers the entire energy sector or specific end uses su

89、ch as heating and cooling,transport and cooking.While the former provides a comprehensive view of the impact of the target with regard to climate goals and energy security,the latter may provide a clearer signal for the development of local supply chains for specific technologies.Many countries have

90、 used a combination of both.Section 3.3 provides further details.Targets can be set based on a range of indicators that vary in terms of scope and coverage.For percentage-based targets covering the whole energy sector,a decision is needed on whether they apply to total final energy consumption(TFEC)

91、or total primary energy supply(TPES).For percentage-based targets in the power sector,a decision is needed on whether they represent a share of the generation or installed capacity.In end uses,a decision is needed on whether they represent a share of the total 13A guide to designRenewable energy tar

92、gets in 2022 number of systems added by/after a given year(e.g.bans on combustion engine vehicle sales in the European Union and the state of California by 2035 correspond to a target of 100%of vehicles added after 2035 to be EVs)or a share of the total in use by a given year(e.g.Pariss ban on all c

93、ombustion engine vehicles by 2030 corresponds to 100%of vehicles on the street to be electric).For amount-based targets covering the power sector,a decision is needed on whether they are capacity-based(e.g.GW of installed capacity)or output-based(e.g.GWh of electricity produced).For end use sectors,

94、a decision is needed on whether they represent a number of systems(e.g.solar water heaters)or output(e.g.tonnes of green hydrogen produced).These design elements are discussed in Sections3.4 and 3.5.Technology specificity relates to whether the target should be technology-neutral or technology-speci

95、fic.While technology-neutral targets can be strategic in the early stages of renewable energy development,as they allow markets to identify the most cost-effective technologies,technology-specific targets can enable further diversification of the energy mix,with benefits such as resilient systems an

96、d fewer integration issues.They can also enable the development of local value chains for selected technologies.Section 3.6 provides further details.Modalities for target implementation relate to whether the target is mandatory or aspirational,short to medium term or long term,and determine the proc

97、ess for its review and revision.Section 3.7 provides further details.Aspirational targets are often common in markets and jurisdictions in the early stages of renewable energy development.As experience and know-how on technology costs,performance and other technology dynamics improve,and capacities

98、of institutions covering energy data and policies develop,aspirational targets should be updated and become more binding.However,mandatory or binding targets require specific compliance and enforcement mechanisms(e.g.fines or penalties if the target is not achieved)and the designation of an entity t

99、hat is responsible for achieving them.Long-term targets provide a key signal to project developers,investors,service providers and manufacturers about the overall direction and long-term opportunities in a particular market,while short-to medium-term targets can introduce a sense of urgency and moti

100、vate stakeholders to act.Ideally,a balanced approach should be taken where long-term targets are translated into a series of short-to medium-term targets.In addition,linking renewable energy targets to regular monitoring of market conditions is a key design element that allows for timely adaptation

101、to changes in policy objectives and priorities,market dynamics,renewable energy costs and learning curves.Periodic revisions are also important as data collection and energy balances improve.In many cases,monitoring and adjustment can allow for an increase in ambition.14 Summary for policy makersRen

102、ewable energy target Absolute amount Share of a mixStatistical basisGreen hydrogenSystemsGeneration(GWh)Capacity(GW)Green hydrogenFuelsSystems(EVs.FCVs.,SWHs)Capacity(%)(%)of the power Generation(%)Final consumption(%)Primary supply(%)IndicatorTonnesElectrolysercapacityTotalAddedTotalAddedTotalAdded

103、Hydrogen/gas(%)Biofuelblending(%)Totalsystemsinstalled(%)Systemsadded(%)Capacityadded(%)Capacity installed(%)IndicatorSpecificNeutralTechnologyBindingAspirationalModality for implementationLong term ShorttermBiofuel mandateMandateRPS/RPOLawRegional/blockFrequency of revisions Monitoring progressEnd

104、usesElectricityWhole economy ScopeEnd usesElectricityFigure S5 Key decisions for renewable energy target settingNotes:EV=electric vehicle;FCV=fuel cell vehicle;SWH=solar water heaters.15A guide to designRenewable energy targets in 2022 INTRODUCTION The summer of 2022 has given the world a glimpse of

105、 a future in which the fight against climate change has been lost.Temperatures are on the rise.July 2022 was the 46th consecutive July and the 451st consecutive month with temperatures exceeding the average for the 20th century(National Centers for Environmental Information,2022).Heatwaves caused wi

106、ldfires of unprecedented severity in France,Greece,Spain,Portugal and the United States.Drought frequency and duration has increased by nearly a third since 2000.In the summer of 2022 almost half of US states experienced droughts,the Horn of Africa experienced its worst drought in more than 40 years

107、,Italy and France faced their worst drought since the 1950s and water restrictions were implemented in numerous jurisdictions.Climate change is negatively affecting food harvests and pushing up prices globally,leaving 18 million people facing the risk of severe hunger in the Ethiopia,Somalia and par

108、ts of Kenya(World Economic Forum,2022).Pakistan,which contributes less than 1%of annual global greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions,suffered one of its most severe heatwaves in March,after which the country experienced 190%more rain compared to its 30-year average from June to August,causing major flooding

109、in almost one-third of the country,washing away half the countrys crops and causing significant food shortages(BBC News,2022).Food prices were already high globally,as the world grapples with record-high inflation and energy prices,partly due to the conflict in Ukraine.In the EuropeanUnion electrici

110、ty prices rose to historical levels.Significant year-on-year increases in electricity wholesale prices were registered in EU countries in the first quarter of 2022,in Spain and Portugal(411%),Greece(343%),France(336%)and Italy(318%)(European Commission,2022a)and in Germany prices reached almost six

111、times the level of the same time the year before(B,2022).Meanwhile,733 million people remain without access to electricity and some 2.4 billion people still rely on traditional biomass for cooking(IRENA et al.,2022a).In many countries where there is access,electricity is unreliable,slowing down soci

112、o-economic development.At the same time,renewable energy projects that are urgently needed to help address the energy crisis are facing hurdles such as increasing costs,supply chain disruptions,permitting and licensing issues,and other political and regulatory barriers.The cost of shipping renewable

113、 energy equipment and the price of many of the raw materials used for their production have been rising since the start of 2021.By March 2022 the price of aluminium had doubled,copper had risen by 70%,steel had increased by 50%and freight costs had risen almost fivefold(IEA,2022).The price of polysi

114、licon reached USD 40/kilogram(kg)in the first quarter of 2022,up from USD 6.80/kg in 2020(Fitch Solutions,2022).As such,the installation costs of wind and solar have increased,reversing the long-term trend of decreasing costs seen in recent decades.The focus of renewable energy policy on cost-compet

115、itiveness has led to the concentration of supply chains in a number of countries.Trade issues and COVID-related lockdowns have disrupted the supply of key components and equipment from those countries to the rest of the world,demonstrating the vulnerability of this model and the value of localisatio

116、n.These developments show the need for immediate action to increase ambition for renewable energy deployment,for climate goals,energy security and affordability,and to ensure universal basic rights such as access to energy,food and water.Recent developments also show that greater ambition is also ne

117、eded for the development of local supply chains that can contribute to energy security.16 IntroductionThis report sets out to support governments in designing renewable energy targets that can help achieve the pressing objectives of reducing GHG emissions from burning fossil fuels,increasing resilie

118、nce to climate impacts,limiting the dependence on energy imports,and achieving universal access to clean,affordable and reliable energy.While the report focuses mainly on national-level renewable energy targets,the lessons and insights apply to targets adopted by other levels of government.The first

119、 chapter presents an overview of the latest updates in climate commitments made ahead of the 27th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)COP27.It focuses on the Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)under the Paris Agreement,updated ahead of COP2

120、7,which outline each signatorys commitments to mitigation and adaptation,indicating the pathway that the world will follow as it undertakes enhanced climate action and net zero emissions.For renewable energy targets set within NDCs to materialise,they need to be reflected in national energy plans.Bu

121、t,to date,there is a mismatch between the renewable energy component in NDCs and the renewable energy targets set at the national level.Chapter 2 shows this mismatch,after presenting the latest trends in targets and an analysis of the level of ambition in renewable power targets globally by quantify

122、ing them.Chapter 3 draws on IRENAs Renewable Energy Target Setting report and presents the design elements of targets to achieve policy objectives related to the climate and beyond,within the specific contexts of resource availability,the level of development of the renewable energy sector,and the f

123、uture energy mix.Finally,recommendations for the way forward in target setting and monitoring are provided in Chapter 4.phil_berryS171181 NDCs and other commitments towards climate objectives1 NDCS AND OTHER COMMITMENTS TOWARDS CLIMATE OBJECTIVESBy COP26 in 2021,updated NDCs and other commitments,su

124、ch as net zero targets,were predicted to be able to reduce emissions by 20%by 2030 compared to business as usual(i.e.prior to the submission of the first round of NDCs following the Paris Agreement),with the potential to limit warming to 2.1C(UNEP,2021).In addition,COP26 witnessed a number of signif

125、icant announcements,including a pledge by over 100countries to cut their methane emissions by 30%by 2030.The International Energy Agency(IEA)finds that these commitments,along with the NDCs and net zero targets,would be adequate to limit the increase in global temperatures to 1.8C by the end of the

126、century,if achieved(IEA,2021).In addition,a number of countries made pledges on coal phase-out and phase-down and ending coal and gas exploitation,while over 130countries agreed to halt and reverse deforestation.Globally,these pledges represent crucial steps in the right direction,but they are not e

127、nough to meet the 1.5C target.Figure 1.1 shows two trajectories for(estimated)future global CO2 emissions based on COP26 announcements(the orange line)and IRENAs World Energy Transitions Outlook(WETO)1.5C Scenario,which outlines a pathway for limiting global temperature rise to 1.5C and bring CO2 em

128、issions to net zero by 2050(the blue line).The area between the two lines represents the gap between a 1.5C scenario and the pledges made at COP26.In 2030,under the COP26 announcement scenario,global CO2 emissions are estimated to reach 37.5gigatonnes(Gt),but to reach the 1.5C target,emission levels

129、 would need to be further reduced to 22.2Gt in that year.204020452025203020212035205040 30 20 10 0-5Gt CO2/yearWETO1.5 CAnnouncements made at COP26 FIGURE 1.1 CO2 emission trajectories based on COP26 announcements and the WETO 1.5C ScenarioNote:The“Announcements made at COP26”trajectory includes all

130、 NDCs and long-term strategies or net zero targets communicated by Parties as of 12 November 2021.To estimate emissions for the trajectory,“optimistic”data,i.e.the lowest emission level of the full implementation of the NDC(conditional and unconditional),have been applied.Source:IRENA(2022a)19A guid

131、e to designRenewable energy targets in 20221 1.1 MOMENTUM FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE ACTION AND UPDATES ON NDCS SINCE COP26 The“Glasgow Climate Pact”,one of the major outcomes of COP26,called on Parties to review and strengthen their NDCs by the end of 2022,in order to limit the global temperature increase

132、to below 1.5C.Against this backdrop and building on the most recent announcements made since COP26,this section provides an overview of the latest NDC commitments and some of the main agreements made ahead of COP27.Since COP26 in November 2021,24 Parties had updated their NDCs(up to 16 October 2022)

133、.This includes sixParties from the G20:Australia,the Federative Republic of Brazil(Brazil),India,Indonesia,Republic of Korea,and the United Kingdom.Almost all of these Parties had in fact submitted updated NDCs in 2020-2021 ahead of COP 26,1 but shared further updated NDCs to either communicate enha

134、nced targets or further expand on means of implementation.Only three of these Parties have specific renewable energy targets,although some Parties made other commitments to clean energy;for example Australia has committed to invest around USD 20 billion in its grid infrastructure to unlock higher pe

135、netration of renewables,in addition to investments in manufacturing and deployment of renewables.By 16October 2022,193 Parties had ratified the Paris Agreement and 194 had submitted NDCs.2 Of the 166 Parties that submitted new or updated NDCs,only 99 Parties representing 81%of global GHG emissions s

136、ubmitted enhanced ambitions.3 Of the remaining Parties that submitted new or updated NDCs in 2022,67 Parties(accounting for a further 14%of global emissions in 2019)submitted NDCs with either the same emission reduction targets,increased emissions compared to their first NDCs,or emission reduction t

137、argets that are not comparable with their initial NDCs(Climate Watch,2022).These are shown in Figure 1.2.1 Excluding India which had submitted its prior NDC in 2016.2 As of 16 October 2022,Eritrea had not ratified the Paris Agreement but had submitted an NDC.3 These countries revised their emission

138、targets upwards compared to targets submitted previously.6%14%80%Enhanced ambitionNo clear indicationNo indication to submit996728194Parties submitted NDCs166Parties submitted new or updated NDCs99Parties indicated enhanced ambitionTotal GHG emissions(2019)46 GTCO2FIGURE 1.2 NDCs by ambition and sha

139、re of global emissions(as of 16 October 2022)Source:Climate Watch(2021)updated as of 16 October 2022.Note:The European Union and its 27 member States communicated one joint NDC which for this report has been counted as one NDC representing 28 Parties.201 NDCs and other commitments towards climate ob

140、jectivesRenewable energy plays a key role in IRENAs 1.5C Scenario,with its share of the worlds total final energy consumption(TFEC)needing to grow from 19%in 2019 to 38%in 2030(IRENA,2022a).Yet the renewable energy targets in NDCs are nowhere near that.As of 16 October 2022,183 Parties had included

141、renewable energy components in their NDCs,of which only 143 had a quantified target.Of these targets,108 focus on power and only 31 explicitly mention heating and cooling,transport,or cooking.Only 12 Parties had committed to a percentage of renewables in their overall energy mixes.They include the B

142、ahamas,China,Eswatini,the EuropeanUnion,Ghana,Indonesia,Jamaica,the Maldives,Mauritius,Nepal,Pakistan and Paraguay.Of the 108 Parties that had defined targets for renewables in the power sector in their NDCs,47 presented them in the form of additions mostly in the form of capacity(GW)and a few in te

143、rms of output(GWh).Commitments to add renewable power(in terms of capacity or output)deliver many benefits namely providing long-term clarity on the trajectory of the renewable energy sector,increasing investor confidence,and building a local industry with its associated socio-economic benefits.Howe

144、ver,a target in this form does not give a clear indication of progress towards achieving climate goals.By comparison,targets defined as a share of the electricity mix provide more clarity on the ambition with regard to climate goals,as they take account of phasing out or choosing to opt out of fossi

145、l-based power(see Section 3.2).Naturally,this only applies where the target covers a considerable share of the total electricity mix.Of the 61 Parties with targets defined as a share of the power mix,only 12 commit to shares between 90%to 100%,and 13 commit to shares between 60%and 89%,23 commit to

146、a share between 25%and 59%,and 13 commit to achieving a renewable energy share lower than 24%(see Figure 1.3).4 The difference between percentage-based targets and amount-based targets and the way they serve different policy objectives are detailed further in Chapter 3 of this report.4 Note that 22

147、Parties define targets in terms of both capacity/output and share of the power mix.Parties Parties Power targetParties Parties 12Parties 90-100%13Parties 60-89%23Parties 25-59%13Parties 0-24%Targeted renewable sharein the electricity mix1831433112Total renewables mentionsRenewables targetPower targe

148、t108Parties Parties Share-basedPercentage-based39Parties 22Parties 47Parties CombinationCapacity andoutput-basedFIGURE 1.3 Renewable energy targets in NDCs(as of 16 October 2022)Source:Climate Watch(2021)updated as of 16 October 2022.Note:The European Union and its 27 member States communicated one

149、joint NDC which for this report has been counted as one NDC representing 28 Parties.21A guide to designRenewable energy targets in 20221 1.2 NET ZERO TARGETS AND COMMITMENTS Commitments are being made outside the NDC process and beyond the 2030 time horizon.Many jurisdictions at the national,subnati

150、onal and city level,in addition to private corporations,have made net zero commitments,and renewable energy is poised to play a pivotal role in the achievement of these targets.At the national level,the Net Zero Tracker5 reported that 137 countries had announced they were considering net zero target

151、s(as of October 2022).Of these countries,seven declared that they have achieved their net zero target,17 have translated net zero targets into law,40 have stated net zero in policy documents,16 have made a pledge or declaration to reach net zero,and 57 are having ongoing discussions on adopting net

152、zero targets(Net Zero Tracker,2022).Table 1.1 shows the jurisdictions with net zero pledges as of October 2022.They include pledges described as achieving net zero,carbon neutrality,climate neutrality and zero carbon.6Such targets are also being adopted at a faster rate at the subnational and city l

153、evel.Out of the 713regions and 1 177 cities covered by the Net Zero Tracker,116 regions and 237 cities had net zero targets.At the city level,six have passed net zero targets into law,while 107 have stated them in policy documents and 36 in proposed documents,while 88 have made some form of declarat

154、ion or pledge(Net Zero Tracker,2022).Private companies have also made such pledges.Corporations can have a significant impact on the energy transition,especially those involved in high-emitting activities and sectors such as industry and oil and gas.Almost 700 of the more than 2 000 companies covere

155、d in an analysis by Net Zero Tracker have announced net zero targets(Box 1.1).However,many of them have not backed up these targets with operational plans and strategies,leaving open the question whether these would be realised(Energy Tracker Asia,2022a).5 A collaboration between four organisations

156、The Energy&Climate Intelligence Unit(ECIU),the Data-Driven EnviroLab(DDL),the NewClimate Institute and Oxford Net Zero funded by the European Climate Foundation(ECF),ClimateWorks Foundation and the IKEA Foundation.6 Net zero is a state where a balance between anthropogenic GHG emissions and removals

157、 is achieved.This can be achieved through reducing and avoiding emissions,and then implementing solutions to capture the remaining ones at the point of generation,or by removing them from the atmosphere.Climate neutrality synonymous to net zero means achieving a balance between emissions and removal

158、s of GHGs from the atmosphere.Carbon neutrality describes a state in which the GHG emissions released to the atmosphere by a stakeholder(individual,organization,company,country,etc.)have been reduced or avoided and the remaining ones are compensated with carbon credits.Source:(UNFCCC,2022).Zero carb

159、on-Zero carbon means that no carbon emissions are being produced from a product or service.It concerns the emissions produced from a product or serviceit means no carbon is given off at all.Source:(National Grid ESO,n.d.).Aerovista LuchtfotografieS221 NDCs and other commitments towards climate objec

160、tivesNotes:LDCs=least developed countries;SIDS=small island developing states.Source:Net Zero Tracker(2022).TABLE 1.1 Jurisdictions with net zero pledges,divided into high emitters(G20),low emitters(LDCs and SIDS)and others according to the Net Zero Tracker by October 2022 G20/High emittersLDCs and

161、SIDSOtherAchieved BeninBhutanCambodiaComorosGuyanaMadagascarSurinameIn lawCanadaDenmarkEuropean UnionFranceGermanyJapan Republic of Korea Russian FederationUnited KingdomFijiHungaryIrelandLuxembourgNew ZealandPortugalSpainSwedenIn policy documentAustraliaChinaSaudi ArabiaTrkiyeUnited States Antigua

162、and BarbudaBarbadosBelize Lao Peoples Democratic RepublicLiberiaMaldivesMarshall IslandsNepalSaint Kitts and NevisSeychellesSingaporeSouth SudanArmeniaAustriaBelgiumCabo VerdeChileCosta RicaCroatiaEcuadorFinlandGreeceIcelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaMaltaMonacoPanamaPeruRomaniaSloveniaSri LankaUkraineUrug

163、uay23A guide to designRenewable energy targets in 20221 Declaration/pledgeArgentinaBrazilIndiaSouth AfricaMalawiBahrainAndorraColombiaEstoniaIsraelKazakhstanMalaysiaNigeriaThailandUnited Arab EmiratesViet NamProposed/in discussion IndonesiaMexicoPakistanAfghanistanBangladeshBurkina FasoBurundiCentra

164、l African Republic ChadDominican RepublicEritreaEthiopiaGambia GrenadaGuineaGuinea-BissauHaitiJamaicaKiribatiLesothoMaliMauritaniaMauritiusMozambiqueMyanmarNauruNigerNiuePalauPapua New GuineaRwandaSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesSamoaSao Tome and PrincipeSenegalSierra LeoneSolomon IslandsSomaliaSuda

165、nUnited Republic of Tanzania Timor-LesteTogoTongaTrinidad and TobagoTuvaluVanuatuYemenZambiaBulgariaCyprusLebanonFederated States of MicronesiaNamibiaNicaraguaSlovakiaSwitzerlandThe Bahamas241 NDCs and other commitments towards climate objectivesBox 1.1 Net zero targets announced by companies as of

166、August 20227 Some examples of Scope 3 activities are extraction and production of purchased materials;transport of purchased fuels;and use of sold products and services(WBCSD and WRI,n.d.).According to the Net Zero Tracker,which tracks over 2 000 of the largest publicly traded companies in the world

167、(representing USD 42 trillion in annual revenue in 2020),almost 700 companies(representing USD 21 trillion in annual revenue)have or are considering a net zero target.While most targets are set for dates in the future up to 2050,about 31 companies claim to have already achieved net zero,of which thr

168、ee are externally validated while the rest have self-declared reaching net zero.The externally validated targets include Salesforce(an American cloud-based software company with around USD 17 billion in annual revenue),ITC(an Indian conglomerate with a diversified presence across industries such as

169、hotels,software and agribusiness and annual revenue of around USD5.5 billion)and the Goodman Group(an Australian commercial and industrial property group with annual revenue of around USD 1.1 billion).These companies are using carbon credit offsets,while Salesforce further claims to rely on CO2 remo

170、val methods such as nature-based and carbon capture-based removal.The company has also declared that it is operating on 100%renewable energy as of 2021(Salesforce,2021).About 430 companies have net zero targets as part of their corporate strategy.These include some of the highest grossing firms glob

171、ally,which are also among the firms with highest GHG emission footprint,for example Walmart,Royal Dutch Shell,Aramco,Amazon,Toyota,BP and Exxon.Company-based net zero targets have varying emissions coverage.More than 80%of the targets cover Scope 1(direct emissions resulting from sources that are ow

172、ned or controlled by the company)and Scope 2 emissions(emissions from generation of purchased electricity).However,many companies,especially the top 10 highest grossing companies,have targets that either do not cover,or only partially cover,Scope 3 emissions(i.e.indirect emissions as a consequence o

173、f the companys activities,but which occur from sources not owned or controlled by the company).7 Finally,there are 205 companies that have made a net zero pledge,but have yet to outline their plans in their corporate strategy,while an additional 18 are still discussing the possibility of a net zero

174、target.Figure 1.4 shows the status of companies net zero targets as of August 2022.Number of companiesAchieved(externally validated)Achieved(self-declared)Proposed/in discussionIn corporate strategyDeclaration/pledge05032819430205100150200250300350400450500FIGURE 1.4 Companies net zero targets by st

175、atus as of August 2022Source:Net Zero Tracker(2022).25A guide to designRenewable energy targets in 20221 1.3 FOSSIL FUEL PHASE-OUT(PHASE-DOWN)TARGETS Transitioning to a low-carbon future as laid out in IRENAs 1.5C Scenario requires not only scaling up renewables,but also phasing out(or phasing down)

176、existing carbon-intensive generation,such as from coal,natural gas and oil.Fossil fuel phase-out(and phase-down)has gained further political traction in 2022,as countries seek to increase their energy security and reduce their dependence on imported oil and gas with the conflict in Ukraine.Targets f

177、or coal phase-out have been adopted by several countries,mainly in Europe,with the addition of Canada and New Zealand.Table 1.2 presents all 22 economies that have adopted coal phase-out plans to date.However,these countries account for less than 4%of global electricity generation(Alvarez,2021).Majo

178、r existing and new coal players in the Asia Pacific region and in Africa are expected to drive future coal demand unless a broader coal phase-out is adopted.Many of these commitments were made at COP26,when more than 40 countries(and around 150organisations)signed a pledge to phase out(or phase down

179、)coal(UNFCCC,2021).The pact included 23 countries that pledged,for the first time,to cease building and issuing permits for new coal-fired plants domestically and to eventually transition away from coal.Five of the top 20 countries in the world that produce electricity using coal are among them:Pola

180、nd,Indonesia,Korea,Viet Nam and Ukraine.However,these countries have yet to follow up their pledge with specific targets,timelines for phase-out or plans at the national level(Europe Beyond Coal,2022).Furthermore,European countries including Austria,Germany,Greece,Poland and the Netherlands are amon

181、g the first to revert back to coal in a bid to secure energy supplies as gas imports from the Russian Federation have declined amid the sanctions introduced in 2022(Daily News Egypt,2022).TABLE 1.2 Coal-phase out commitments and plans of selected countries CountryShare of coal in electricity mix in

182、2021DeadlineComments Bulgaria37.2%2038 or 2040The 20th EU country to announce a coal phase out date Canada6%2030 Only for electricity generation.This is part of Canadas goal to reach net-zero emissions by 2050Croatia9.7%2033Croatia announced to phase out coal by 2033 at COP26Czech Republic40%2030The

183、 22nd EU country to announce a coal exit date Denmark16%2028In 2017,Denmark was among the first signatories to the Powering Past Coal Alliance(PPCA),declaring a phase out coal by 2030.This has now been brought forward to 2028Finland4.4%2029The use of coal in power generation will be banned after May

184、 2029France 1.1%2022Coal phase out initially planned by 2023,and later moved to by 2022.In 2019,the coal phase-out was legislated through the Energy and Climate Law Germany27.8%2030Earlier phase out plans by 2038 were brought forward to 2030 to reach further alignment with the UN Paris climate agree

185、ment 1.5C requirements261 NDCs and other commitments towards climate objectivesGreece12.4%2028Lignite-fired power plants will be ceased by 2023.Only one plant remaining until 2028,which is currently being constructed and whose fate is unclear.The conversion to fossil gas is being considered Hungary8

186、.5%2025Coal phase-out plans outlined at the United Nations Climate Action Summit in New York in September 2019 to be brought forward from 2030 to 2025 by the closing of its last coal power plant of 884 MW capacityIreland13.2%2025End coal power use by 2025.In 2018,the parliament passed a bill to sell

187、 the countrys shares in coal,peat,oil and gas,making Ireland the worlds first country to divest from all fossil fuelsItaly5.1%2025Coal phase-out by 2025 as part of the National Energy Strategy Montenegro40.3%2035No plans to build new coal plants although the existing Plevlja I plant will be retrofit

188、ted for district heating.A cap-and-trade system for major CO2 emitters was introduced in Feb 2020 The Netherlands14.6%2029All coal-fired power plants will shut by the end of 2029.Three of the five remaining plants will operate for less than half of their expected lifetime New Zealand6.2%2037Ban new

189、low-and medium-temperature coal boilers and phase out existing coal boilers by 2037North Macedonia32.6%2030Coal phase out has been delayed from 2027 to 2030Romania18.3%2032The country plans to phase-out hard coal and lignite power production by 2032 in its National Resilience and Recovery Plan annou

190、nced in September 2021.This plan aims to cut coal capacity by more than three quarters by 2025Slovakia7%2030The environmental policy strategy of the Slovak Republic published in 2019 states a coal phase-out by 2030 Slovenia24.6%2033Coal phase out by 2033 as per the national coal phase out strategy a

191、dopted in February 2022Spain2.2%2030The country also joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance in February 2021United Kingdom2.1%2024First country in the world to announce a coal phase-out policy.It is considering an emission limit on coal power stations from October 2025 onwards.Since the United Kingd

192、om introduced a carbon tax for power plants in 2013,installed coal capacity and coal power generation has already sharply decreasedViet Nam46.6%2040At COP26,the Prime Minister declared to phase out coal fired power plants by the 2040s in order to meet its“net zero by 2050”commitment.Viet Nams Nation

193、al Strategy on Climate Change up to 2050,issued in 2022,specified that Vietnam do not develop new coal-fired power projects after 2030 and gradually reduce the scale of coal power capacity after 2035 Sources:Europe Beyond Coal(2022);Government of Canada(2021);New Zealand et al.(2022);Energy Tracker

194、Asia(2022b);Our World in Data(2022);USDA and GAIN(2022).27A guide to designRenewable energy targets in 2022At COP26,South Africas Just Energy Transition Partnership(JETP)was launched,a joint initiative supported by the European Union,France,Germany,the United Kingdom and the United States.It aims to

195、 help decarbonise South Africas energy sector,which is currently dependent on coal for more than 70%of its electricity needs.The partnership is founded on the recognition that a transition away from coal must be carried out in a just and equitable manner,to prevent and manage certain transition risk

196、s such as the displacement of jobs or other impacts on livelihoods.Six months on from its launch,the JETP is now developing an investment plan to support the just transition objectives(Box 1.2).Although the United States in addition to Australia,China and India did not take part in the coal phase-ou

197、t pledge at COP26,the country took part in a ministerial-level joint communiqu in May 2022,whereby G7 countries committed to make progress towards phasing out unabated coal power but did not specify a date yet for doing so.The countries also committed to decarbonising their electricity sectors by 20

198、35,shifting road vehicle sales to zero-emission vehicles,and halting public financing for overseas fossil fuel projects by 2030.The communiqu was released against the backdrop of the conflict in Ukraine,which has reignited efforts in Europe,in particular to urgently switch to more sustainable energy

199、 sources(Carbon Brief,2022).Other related commitments made include targets for the phase-out of internal combustion engine vehicles.These are discussed together with targets for electric vehicles(EVs)in Section 2.1.1.Box 1.2 Six-month progress update on South Africas Just Transition Partnership Sout

200、h Africas Just Energy Transition Partnership(JETP)was launched at COP26 to support the decarbonisation of the countrys energy sector,thereby helping meet its NDC target of keeping annual GHG emissions in the range of 350-420million tonnes of CO2-eq by 2030.Supported by the EuropeanUnion,France,Germa

201、ny,the United Kingdom and the United States,USD8.5billion were committed to be mobilised in the first round of financing.This deal to finance a just transition is first of its kind and can be used as a model for climate action,encouraging further international co-operation through increased financia

202、l and technical assistance directed at developing countries.Following the announcement,an Independent Partners Group,chaired by the United Kingdom,and a Presidential Climate Finance Task Team have been set up to oversee the JETPs governance.The JETP secretariat has been further established to provid

203、e a technical and coordination function.Consultations with related government representatives and development finance institutions have been ongoing,with a view to informing the development of an investment plan and financing package,while embedding just transition elements into the programme.Furthe

204、r discussions are ongoing to identify the financing instruments suited to South Africas climate goals and investment needs,while keeping in mind the current fiscal situation.A combination of concessional loans,grants and debt guarantees is likely,supported with technical assistance.The JETP workplan

205、 aims to finalise the investment plan by COP27.In addition,five working groups have been established to deliver the technical experience and expertise to develop the investment plan,covering distinct topics:finance,power,hydrogen,transport,and implementation.Building on the efforts of South Africas

206、JETP,as announced in the G7 Chairs Summary on Climate Neutrality,further JETPs are being developed in other countries,including India,Indonesia,Senegal and Viet Nam.Sources:COP26(2022);G7(2022).1 28229A guide to designRenewable energy targets in 20222 RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS IN NATIONAL PLANSBy the

207、 middle of 2022,176 countries had in place some sort of renewable energy target at the national and/or subnational(e.g.state or city level).8 Of these,12 had targets that expired in 2020(IRENA,2022b);these are included in the analysis,as they still contribute to achieving the energy transition.This

208、is a significant increase from just 43 countries in 2005(IRENA,2015).Renewable energy targets have become increasingly diverse as policy makers have set out to adapt them to the unique circumstances of their jurisdictions and encourage investment in specific sectors or technologies.Targets perform a

209、 range of functions in policymaking and can be grouped into three main stages,formulation,implementation and evaluation,as illustrated in Figure 2.1(Box 2.1).8 IRENA analysis encompasses all national-level targets for renewable power generation as per the countrys national laws,official strategies a

210、nd plans.Targets in NDCs are considered separately as these can often be conditional or non-binding.Box 2.1 The main functions of renewable energy targets At the policy formulation stage,targets play an important knowledge and exploratory function.They can enhance the transparency of the policymakin

211、g process and help develop a knowledge base.Target formulation can also include intense political discourse and engagement.By fostering a sense of co-ownership,stakeholder participation can increase robustness and efficacy.At the policy implementation stage,targets can indicate political commitment,

212、signal a long-term trajectory for policy direction and investment,support planning and encourage stakeholders to take action.They can further improve alignment and coordination of policies across different sectors and market segments.Targets with clearly assigned responsible entities can also help f

213、oster accountability.At the evaluation stage,targets serve as a benchmark through which the effectiveness of various policies is measured.Monitoring and evaluation can expose deficiencies in operations and planning,while highlighting opportunities for correction and adaptation.FIGURE 2.1 Role of tar

214、gets at different stages of policy-makingPOLICY FORMULATIONPOLICY IMPLEMENTATIONPOLICY EVALUATION Develop information base Validate through consultation Reveal gaps in knowledge Increase transparency Debate,raise awareness,gain acceptance Improve planning Provide clear policy direction and signal po

215、litical commitment Encourage policy alignment Motivate stakeholders Foster acountability Provide milestones for evaluation Show deficiencies in operations Highlight opportunity to correct deviations Expose data needs/discrepanciesSource:(IRENA,2015)2 302 Renewable energy targets in national plansThe

216、 first section of this chapter presents the trends in renewable energy targets as of mid-2022.It shows innovation in target design,and the increasing diversity in the way targets are framed to cover different end uses and multiple policy objectives.These aspects of renewable energy target design are

217、 covered in Chapter 3.One trend that has sustained over the years is the prevalence of targets in the power sector.A quantification of these targets is presented in Section 2.2,to analyse the current level of ambition in comparison to where we need to be in order to limit the rise in the average glo

218、bal temperature to 1.5C,as per IRENAs analysis in the 2022 World Energy Transitions Outlook(WETO).2.1 TRENDS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS Renewable energy targets remain focused mainly on the power sector.In IRENAs 1.5C Scenario,half of TFEC is in the form of electricity by 2050,90%of which is renewa

219、bles-based.By 2030 almost a third of TFEC is electricity,almost two-thirds renewables-based(Figure 2.2).As such,targets in the power sector,along with electrification targets for end uses,play a significant part in decarbonising the energy sector.Trends in the adoption of renewable power and electri

220、fication targets are discussed in Section 2.1.1.The section also discusses targets for peaking power,an emerging trend to support the integration of higher shares of variable renewable energy into the system.Targets for rural electrification using off-grid technologies are also discussed.The decarbo

221、nisation of the power sector alone will not be sufficient to put the world on a climate-safe pathway:20%of the emission reductions needed in the energy sector will have to come from the accelerated use of renewables in end uses such as heating and cooling,as well as transport(IRENA,2022a).Section 2.

222、1.2 gives an overview of targets for the direct use of renewables in end uses,focusing on targets for specific technologies and solutions,for example green hydrogen and clean cooking.Another trend in renewable energy targets is their increased adoption at varying levels of governance,including the s

223、upranational level(such as the EuropeanUnion),the state,city and even community level.This trend is explored in Section 2.1.3.Finally,targets for socio-economic benefits from renewable energy deployment,including jobs and development of local industries,are highlighted in Section 2.1.4.TFEC(%)201920

224、30 -Where we need to be(1.5-S)392EJ Total final energy consumption373EJ Total final energy consumption373EJ Total final energy consumption3%District heat21%Electricity(direct)5%Modern biomass6%Traditional biomass13%Coal15%Natural gas36%Oil4%District heat30%Electricity(direct)12%Modern biomass8%Coal9

225、%Natural gas30%Oil3%Hydrogen(direct use and e-fuels)Other renewablesRenewable share inhydrogen:33%6%40%65%Renewableshare in district heat:Renewable share in electricity26%Renewable share in electricityRenewable share in district heat:0.6%Other renewables3%2050 -Where we need to be(1.5-S)348EJ Total

226、final energy consumption5%District heat51%Electricity(direct)Electricity(Nuclear)Electricity(Natural gas)CoalNatural gas18%Modern biomass12%Hydrogen(direct use and e-fuels)4%other renewablesOil2%4%Renewable sharein hydrogen:66%90%90%Renewable share in district heat:Renewable share in electricity4%FI

227、GURE 2.2 The role of renewable energy in the energy transitionSource:IRENA(2022a).31A guide to designRenewable energy targets in 20222.1.1 MOST COUNTRIES STILL FOCUS THEIR TARGETS ON THE POWER SECTORTargets for renewable power at the national and state level By mid-2022,149 countries had targets for

228、 renewable power.Of these,125 countries have set targets as a share of the electricity mix:15 countries(mostly SIDS)are aiming for 100%renewables,13(mostly in Europe and SIDS)are targeting shares above 80%.There are 35 countries aiming for a share of renewables in their electricity mix between 50%an

229、d 79%,which include 10 countries in Europe,seven countries in sub-Saharan Africa,9 six in SIDS10,six in Latin America,11 three in MENA(Mauritania,Morocco and Saudi Arabia),and three in Asia(Kazakhstan,Philippines and Sri Lanka).Some countries targets are further complemented by state level targets.F

230、or example,United States federal level target is supplemented by various state-level targets such as Californias target for 60%of electricity to be from renewables by 2030.Some countries have set targets in the form of installed capacity,either mentioning specific technologies or remaining technolog

231、y-neutral.For example,Ethiopia set a target of 25 GW by 2030,of which 22 GW is to be hydropower,2 GW wind and 1 GW geothermal.Other countries have set both.The Peoples Democratic Republic of Algeria,for example,is targeting a 27%share for renewable electricity generation by 2030,translating into 22

232、GW of installed capacity.The attributes of each of these target design elements are discussed in Chapter 3.Targets for the electrification of end uses As the electrification of end uses gains importance in the energy transition,an increasing number of countries are setting targets for the deployment

233、 of heat pumps,EVs and charging stations.Coupled with targets for high shares of renewables in the electricity mix,electrification targets can play an essential role in the decarbonisation of heating and cooling and transport.Moreover,the electrification of end uses can enhance grid flexibility thro

234、ugh demand response management.For heating and cooling,the European Commissions REPowerEU plan includes a target to double the rate of deployment of heat pumps(European Commission,2022b).Before that,the United Kingdom adopted a target to install 600000 heat pumps a year in homes and in public buildi

235、ngs by 2028(Government of the United Kingdom,2020a).Electrification targets require comprehensive policymaking,as demonstrated in Ecuador.In 2019 the government launched a nationwide initiative to transition 3.5 million households away from liquefied petroleum gas(LPG)to induction electric stoves,to

236、 meet their cooking needs(Box 2.2)In the transport sector,EV targets and internal combustion engine bans have proliferated in recent years,particularly in Europe and Asia.By the end of 2020 about 37 countries had an EV target and/or a target to ban internal combustion engine vehicles(15 of which wer

237、e in Europe and 13 in Asia)(REN21,2021a).In the last year,sevenadditional countries have enacted similar targets or bans(REN21,2022).Germany has increased its previous target by committing to putting at least 15 million fully electric and hybrid vehicles on the road by 2030,and maintained a previous

238、 target of building 1 million charging stations(Energy Monitor,2022).To date,these have been incentivised through a wide mix of fiscal measures in the form of grants,subsidies,tax incentives and other benefits.The United States is also set to enact a target that calls for all new vehicles sold in 20

239、30 to be zero-emission vehicles,such as plug-in hybrid electric,battery electric or fuel cell electric vehicles(The White House,2021).In 2019 the first internal combustion engine phase-out target in China was announced by the Hainan province,aiming to ban fossil fuel car sales by 2030(Science X,2019

240、).Moreover,targets for the electrification of railways combined with renewable electricity have been set by railway operating companies in Europe and India(International Railway Journal,2019).9 Eritrea,Eswatini,Guinea,Guinea-Bissau,Namibia,Niger and Rwanda.10 Cabo Verde,Cook Islands,Mauritius,Samoa,

241、Sao Tome and Principe,and Solomon Islands.11 Belize,Bolivia,Chile,Nicaragua,Panama and Peru.2 322 Renewable energy targets in national plansHowever,realising the positive impact of electrification will need a simultaneous increase in renewable power generation.For example,the Russian Federation plan

242、s to ramp up its EV fleet by setting a target for the annual production of 220000EVs by 2030.As the renewable electricity generation target is set at only 2%by 2030,much of the EV fleet could be powered by fossil fuel-based electricity.To date,only ninecountries that have an EV target have also set

243、a 100%renewable power target(REN21,2022).Targets for peak power Some countries have defined targets specifically for peak generation.Guinea-Bissaus National Plan of Action for Renewable Energy,for instance,sets an ambition for renewable energy capacity to reach 72MW by 2030,representing 52%of peak d

244、emand(in terms of MW)and 72%of total electricity demand(in terms of share of production)(ECREEE,2017).The use of renewables and battery storage for“peaking”power is starting to gain ground,as several jurisdictions,mainly in the United States,start to seek ways to reduce reliance on natural gas plant

245、s to meet peak electricity demand and ease the integration of variable renewable energy into the grid.In August 2020 Massachusetts became the first state to adopt a so-called“Clean Peak Standard”,which refers to an additional target to the states existing renewable portfolio standard(RPS)of 33%by 20

246、25.The standard requires 1.5%of total peak electricity demand to be procured from eligible clean peak sources,including renewables,storage and demand response.The minimum requirement is scheduled to increase by 1.5 percentage points per year up to 16.5%by 2030(Commonwealth of Massachusetts,2022).Tar

247、gets for rural electrification with off-grid renewables Rural electrification targets specifying off-grid renewables continue to be widespread,in a bid to close the access gap that still exists for 733 million people,of which 568 million reside in sub-Saharan Africa(IRENA et al.,2022).As of August 2

248、022,renewable energy targets for rural electrification were implemented in almost 30 countries,mostly focusing on off-grid solar photovoltaic(PV).Nearly half of these countries are in West Africa,where all countries have set a target.In contrast,Central Africa has the fewest countries with renewable

249、s-based rural electrification plans(IRENA and AfDB,2022).2.1.2 AN INCREASING NUMBER OF COUNTRIES ARE IMPLEMENTING TARGETS FOR RENEWABLES IN END USES(TRANSPORT,CLEAN COOKING,HEATING AND COOLING)Although heating and cooling account for about 50%of global total primary energy demand(IRENA,IEA and REN21

250、,2020),only 40 countries had renewable heating and cooling targets by mid-2022,most of which are in Europe.Of those,30 countries have set their targets as a percentage of all energy needed for heating and cooling without specifying the technology,and 10 have set targets for specific technologies.For

251、 example,India has a solar water heating(SWH)target of 14 GWth(20 millionm of solar receptors)by 2022.A handful of countries in sub-Saharan Africa have set similar targets,such as Kenya,Niger,Nigeria,Senegal and Zimbabwe.Ecuador presents an interesting case that showcases the need for comprehensive

252、policymaking to achieve targets(Box 2.2).In 2019 the government launched a nationwide initiative to transition 3.5million households away from liquefied petroleum gas(LPG)to induction electric stoves,to meet their cooking needs.For the use of renewables in transport,only 33 countries have targets.Po

253、licy support has focused on road transport,mainly in the form of mandates and incentives to promote the production and use of biofuels12 12 Although bioenergy brings many benefits,it can also cause negative environmental,economic and social impacts such as loss of biodiversity,deforestation and redu

254、ced food security.A robust policy framework is needed to minimise the potential negative impacts.IRENAs report,Bioenergy for the Transition:Ensuring Sustainability and Overcoming Barriers,studies potential sustainability aspects and analyses the elements of the policy framework required,including se

255、tting sustainability-based targets and long-term plans;ensuring sustainability governance supported by regulations,certification schemes and cross-sector coordination;and integrating bioenergy policymaking with the Sustainable Development Goals(IRENA,2022c).33A guide to designRenewable energy target

256、s in 20222(in addition to the deployment of EVs running on renewable electricity).Some of those targets increase gradually,such as in India(see Section 3.4.3).Another example is Zimbabwe,where the biofuel policy of 2020 sets out a target for ethanol blending of 20%by 2030 and biodiesel blending of 2

257、%starting from 2020 when available(Government of Zimbabwe,2020).Indonesia has a target for biodiesel blending and bioethanol of 30%and 20%respectively,by 2025(USDA,2018).There are plans to increase the biodiesel target to 40%,although these have not yet materialised into any legislation or policy(Ch

258、ristina,2022).The aviation and shipping sectors have received modest policy attention.The International Maritime Organization and the International Civil Aviation Organization are two international organisations that have adopted GHG emission reduction targets for international shipping and aviation

259、 in 2030,respectively(International Civil Aviation Organization,2017;International Maritime Organization,n.d.).Some regional and national governments have set targets for sustainable aviation fuels.In its Fit for 55 packages,the EuropeanUnion has proposed blending 5%sustainable aviation fuels(SAF)in

260、to general aviation fuel by 2030.Other countries,including Finland,Indonesia,the Kingdom of Sweden,the United Kingdom and the United States,have set specific targets for the aviation sector.For instance,Finland has set a target for a 30%biofuel share in aviation to support its goal of carbon neutral

261、ity by 2035(Biofuels International,2019).Targets for clean cooking According to the latest SDG7 Tracking report,about 2.4 billion people were still without access to clean cooking in 2020,more than 80%of whom reside in one of the 20 countries with the lowest access to clean fuels.In seven of these c

262、ountries,the Democratic Republic of the Congo,Ethiopia,Madagascar,Mozambique,Niger,Tanzania and Uganda,less than 5%of the population have access to clean fuels and technologies.Unless efforts are ramped up significantly,this access deficit will continue to grow as population growth outpaces the rate

263、 at which clean cooking access is provided(IRENA et al.,2022).In a bid to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030,countries are increasingly adopting targets for clean cooking.13 These include targets for the adoption of efficient cookstoves and a transition to renewables-based clean cooki

264、ng options,including the use of electricity and biogas.Ghana,for example,has set a target of installing 3 million improved cookstoves by 2030,Kenya has framed its target as achieving a 57.7%rate of adoption of improved cookstoves among households by 2030 and Rwanda is aiming for 100%access to higher

265、-efficiency cookstoves than currently used by 2030(IRENA,2022b).Rwanda is also aiming to almost halve the share of households using wood and other biomass fuels from 83%to 42%by 2024(SEforAll,2018).IRENA,supported by the government of the United Arab Emirates under the Beyond Food initiative,is stud

266、ying how countries that have clean cooking targets in their NDCs can meet them through electrification(Box 2.3).13 Although the report focuses on renewable energy targets,targets for improved and more efficient cookstoves are also included as these are widely adopted to support clean cooking goals.3

267、42 Renewable energy targets in national plansBox 2.2 Ecuadors targets and policy measures to transition to electric cooking Ecuadors plan to transition 3.5 million households relying on liquefied petroleum gas(LPG)for their cooking needs to induction electric stoves was part of the strategy to trans

268、ition to electric cooking and water heating in a country where renewables,predominantly hydropower,account for more than 60%of the electricity mix(IRENA,2022d).The Energy Efficiency Programme provided a tariff subsidy to 13%of the population,consisting of a zero tariff rate for the consumption of el

269、ectricity up to 80 kilowatt hours(kWh)per month for the purpose of using induction cookers,and up to 20 kWh for water heating systems.The scheme involves visits to verify the use of the induction cooker or the electrical water heater.Despite the subsidised tariffs,electric cookers still met resistan

270、ce from some consumers.In addition to cultural habits that may take some time to change,electric stoves require the use of induction appliances,which are more costly and limited in terms of size and application.But more importantly,there is a misconception among consumers that the use of induction c

271、ookers increases electricity bills and that LPG remains more affordable.LPG is still subsidised and is sold at an official price of USD1.6 for a 15kg cylinder(enough for a month in a family of four members).The LPG state subsidy was not removed as was planned,and in 2021 it amounted to approximately

272、 USD860million,and this number is expected to increase in 2022 with the rise in global energy prices.In addition,the eligibility of a household to receive the zero-rate subsidy for up to 80 kWh depends on showing an increase in power consumption following the installation of cookstoves,compared to t

273、he average consumption in the year before the installation.Other factors might contribute to evening out consumption(e.g.reduced consumption due to fewer people in the household or the retirement of other less efficient appliances).At the same time,some households might have increased consumption du

274、e to reasons other than the use of the cookstoves,but are still eligible for the subsidy even if they continue to use gas for cooking.This highlights the need for coordinated policy measures to support target achievement.Source:(2022).EkaterinaBratovaS35A guide to designRenewable energy targets in 2

275、0222 Targets for green hydrogen Green hydrogen14 plays a major role in decarbonising hard-to-electrify sectors,such as the production processes of basic chemicals and primary steel.Long-haul transport(shipping and aviation)can also benefit from hydrogen derivatives,namely ammonia and synthetic fuels

276、.In IRENAs 1.5C Scenario,green hydrogen accounts for around 8%of total energy consumption(Figure 2.2).By October 2022 more than 60countries had developed or were preparing hydrogen strategies,from just onecountry(Japan)in 2017(Bianco et al.,2022).Countries with hydrogen strategies as of October 2022

277、 are shown in Figure 2.3.14 Namely hydrogen produced using only renewable energy.While many production pathways may exist,for the sake of this report green hydrogen refers to hydrogen produced by renewables-fuelled electrolysis.Box 2.3 IRENAs Beyond Food initiative:Clean cooking and climate action t

278、hrough electrificationOn 4March 2022,at Expo 2020 Dubai,IRENA launched a new initiative,“Beyond Food:A partnership to empower people and communities through clean cooking and sustainable energy”,supported by the United Arab Emirates government,looking at the role of women,enterprises and clean cooki

279、ng,as well as finance facilitation and climate action.Under the initiative,IRENA is assessing efforts towards achieving clean cooking commitments in Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs)and national energy plans by IRENA member states that are also Parties to the Paris Agreement.The aim is to su

280、pport them to meet their NDC commitments and achieve SDG7.IRENA is also developing a country engagement and finance facilitation strategy for the clean cooking energy transition based on electrification.The outcomes will be combined with and build on IRENAs ongoing and potential climate action suppo

281、rt to Paris Agreement Parties,enhancing and implementing their climate pledges through NDCs and long-term low-emission development strategiesFIGURE 2.3 Hydrogen strategies,including those in preparation as of June 2022051015202530AsiaEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle East and North AfricaNorth AmericaOceani

282、aSub-Saharan AfricaStrategy Roadmap DraftingNumber of countriesNote:Strategy indicates an official final document approved by the government.Roadmap indicates the publication of a preliminary document.Drafting is for countries for which there is an official announcement that a strategy is being deve

283、loped.362 Renewable energy targets in national plansAs part of their strategies,several countries have adopted targets for green hydrogen,most commonly framed in terms of electrolyser capacity(Section 3.5.2).The total installed capacity of electrolysers in these targets is around 100 GW by 2030(Figu

284、re 2.4)The EU REPowerEU package sets a target to domestically produce 10 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen,in addition to 10 million tonnes of imports by 2030,with a view to replacing natural gas,coal and oil in hard-to-abate industries and the transport sector.The increase in the production of g

285、reen hydrogen translates into a need to increase the installed capacity of electrolysers to 65 GW in 2030(current capacity is less than 1 GW)(European Commission,2022b).Other common targets included in strategies are for the share of green hydrogen in total hydrogen or gas demand.France,for example,

286、has set a target specifying that 10%of the gas in the supply mix should be renewable by 2030.In Spain,the government developed a hydrogen strategy that sets a minimum 25%green hydrogen contribution to the total hydrogen consumed by all industries in 2030,both as an energy carrier and as a feedstock.

287、Relative to current hydrogen consumption in Spain,this amounts to around 125000tonnes per year(IRENA,2022f)(IRENA,2021).Strategies can also set socio-economic targets.These include targets for increased revenues,investment and exports,positive impact on gross domestic product(GDP),and most commonly,

288、job creation.Expectations for job creation in the hydrogen sector can be found in the strategies of Canada,the Republic of Colombia,France and Italy(IRENA,forthcoming).ChileUruguayColombiaSouth AfricaLatin AmericaEurope115 GWGermanyUnited KingdomFranceDenmarkItalyItalySwedenSpainNetherlandsPortugalP

289、olandAustria FinlandRest of European UnionHungaryCroatia25 GW25 GW1.5 GW1.5 GW2 GW2 GW14.2 GW14.2 GW10 GW7.5 GW6.5 GW6.5 GW5 GW5 GW5 GW5 GW4 GW3.5 GW2 GW1 GW1 GW0.2 GW0.1 GW19.6 GWAfrica2.1 GWFIGURE 2.4 Total electrolyser 2030 targets,globally,as of September 2022Note:When a strategy presents a targ

290、et range,the mid-point has been selected.“Rest of EuropeanUnion”target refers to the REPowerEU target(65GW)minus the sum of EU member states own targets.37A guide to designRenewable energy targets in 20222 2 2.1.3 TARGETS DETERMINED AT THE CITY LEVEL ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY COMMON As local leaders

291、hip grows,local governments and cities are playing an increasingly vital role in speeding up the energy transition,as many have announced renewable energy targets(and net zero targets as mentioned in Section 1.1.2).At the end of 2021 about 925 cities in 73 countries had adopted renewable energy targ

292、ets in the power and/or other end-use sectors(REN21,2022).15 Consistent with global trends,most city-level renewable energy targets apply to the power sector,although cities are increasingly enacting targets for transport(mainly on electric mobility)and heating and cooling.By the end of 2020 about 6

293、17 cities had 100%renewable energy targets in place,mainly for the power sector,and at least 125 cities had already achieved their target of 100%renewable electricity.(REN21,2021b).Many jurisdictions are trying to accelerate the transition to cleaner modes of transport by combining their policies to

294、 encourage electric and other clean forms of transport.About 100 cities had e-mobility targets by the end of 2021(REN21,2022),while a growing interest in hydrogen for transport in cities in East Asia,Australia,California and Europe is resulting in targets for renewable hydrogen-powered transport.In

295、addition,many cities have enacted policies to discontinue the sale of,or completely ban the entry of,internal combustion engines by a certain date.For example,Amsterdam has announced that petrol-and diesel-powered vehicles would be prohibited from entering the city by 2030,with a non-electric bus ba

296、n already in place in 2022(REN21,2021b).City-level targets in the heating sector are also growing.By the end of 2021 some 170 renewable heating targets were active at the city level,mainly across Europe and the United States.In addition,bans on the use of natural gas,oil,or coal for space and water

297、heating had been passed or proposed in more than 59 cities across 13 countries(REN21,2022).City-level targets are more prevalent in high-income countries.North America and Oceania(together)and Europe account for 80%of all city-level renewable energy targets,the first having 406 targets and the secon

298、d having 374 targets.Asia(64),Latin America(48),sub-Saharan Africa(24)and MENA(9)make up the rest.Figure 2.5 presents an overview of city-level targets by region.Relatively smaller cities with populations under 500000 make up almost three-quarters of the cities with renewable energy targets;examples

299、 include Bakata(Burkina Faso),Hanover(Germany),Takarazuka(Japan)and Santa Cruz(California),although large cities such as Beijing,Cape Town,Dubai and Frankfurt have also set renewable energy targets(REN21,2022).15 While these targets are often limited to“municipal operations”,some cities are also app

300、lying them city-wide.0100200300400500North America and Oceania406Europe374Latin America and the Caribbean48Asia64Sub-Saharan Africa24Middle East and North Africa9FIGURE 2.5 Number of cities with renewable energy targets,by region as of the end of 2021Source:REN21(2022).382 Renewable energy targets i

301、n national plansPrivate companies are increasingly adopting renewable energy targets,with many aiming for a 100%renewable energy share.Some of these have come together to form a global network,the RE100(Box 2.4).Box 2.4 Renewable energy targets at the company level the RE100 The RE100 is a global ne

302、twork bringing together hundreds of businesses that have made a commitment to run on 100%renewable energy.As of August 2022,a total of 370 companies are part of the network and together they consumed 340terawatt hours(TWh)of electricity in 2020(more than United Kingdom),of which 45%was reported to b

303、e from renewable sources.The network is growing fast,with most new members coming from the Asia Pacific region,particularly Japan and the Republic of Korea.The sectoral composition of companies with 100%renewable energy targets is skewed towards the service sector,although the representation of the

304、manufacturing sector is growing fast.As Figure 2.6 shows,140 companies from the service industry with an average 71%renewable electricity share have set such targets.They include multinational firms such as Accenture,Barclays and Deloitte.About 77companies have set similar targets in the manufacturi

305、ng sector,with a current average renewable energy share of 32%.They include companies such as Apple and General Motors.The timelines for the targets differ between regions and sectors.Companies in Asia Pacific typically have targets for well beyond 2030 as it may be relatively more difficult to proc

306、ure renewable electricity in the region.By sector,most firms in the manufacturing and materials sectors have set targets for 2030 and beyond.In contrast,companies in the service sector have mainly set targets for 2025 or earlier.As the share of renewables is lower in the manufacturing sector to begi

307、n with,the longer timelines show the need for further research and development to deploy feasible and commercial solutions for their decarbonisation.Going 100%renewable can therefore pose more challenges in hard-to-decarbonise sectors.For example,the ALTANA Group produces chemical products and has 4

308、8facilities and 65 research and service laboratories globally.Although the corporation has a 100%renewable energy target and has so far achieved 96%renewable power across its operations worldwide,the remaining 4%continues to come from gas-based plants and is only expected to be renewables-based by 2

309、040.020406080100120140160ServicesManufacturingFood,beverage and agricultureMaterialsRetailInfrastructureBiotech,healthcare and pharmaApparelHospitalityTransportservices5811202728303277140Number of companiesTarget end year for service sectorTarget end year for manufacturing sector19%16%26%39%By 2021

310、2022-20252026-20302031-205047%32%12%9%FIGURE 2.6 Companies with 100%renewable energy targets by sector,as of August 2022Source:RE100(n.d.)39A guide to designRenewable energy targets in 20222.1.4 COUNTRIES ARE INCREASINGLY SETTING TARGETS FOR SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY DEPLOYMEN

311、TA global energy transition based on renewables under IRENAs 1.5C Scenario leads to an increase in world GDP that is 2.4%greater(on average)than that under the Planned Energy Scenario over the next decade.Economy-wide employment is 0.9%higher on average.In addition,IRENAs Energy Transition Welfare I

312、ndex,with its five dimensions economic,social,environmental,distributional and energy access shows that the 1.5C pathway improves global welfare significantly(IRENA,2022a).In Africa,the energy transition under IRENAs 1.5C Scenario predicts 6.4%higher GDP,3.5%higher economy-wide jobs and a 25.4%highe

313、r welfare index than that realised under current plans,on average up to 2050(IRENA and AfDB,2022).But these continent-level benefits mask large disparities between regions and countries,and they do not occur automatically.They need a comprehensive set of policies,including industrial and labour poli

314、cies,and measures for education and training,and public financing,among others.This is why setting a target for the socio-economic benefits that the energy transition aims to achieve in a given country is very important.Such a target can provide a clear direction with regard to the policies that nee

315、d to be implemented to ensure a just and inclusive energy transition.Morocco and South Africa were among the first countries to set such objectives at their early stages of renewable energy development,and pioneered policy measures and auction design to serve those objectives.Their cases are detaile

316、d in the IRENA report Renewable energy auctions:Status and trends beyond price(IRENA,2019a).More recently,policy makers in the United States have been working to provide workforce training and grow manufacturing.Goals have been set for at least 300 000 additional diverse solar employees and 1 GW per

317、 year of new US PV manufacturing capacity.The focus is also on removing barriers to equitable solar access and supporting a diverse and inclusive workforce.A goal has also been set for 100%of US energy consumers to be able to choose residential or community solar that does not increase their electri

318、city cost(Moreno,n.d.).In 2021 President Biden set a GHG reduction target by 2030 that aims to create well-paid union jobs and secure US leadership on clean energy technologies(Box 2.5).The UnitedKingdoms strategy to speed the transition to net zero,support green jobs and improve infrastructure is o

319、utlined in the Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution.In order to create and sustain up to 250000green jobs,the government intends to mobilise GNP12billion in public investment and potentially up to three times that amount from the private sector.The governments net zero strategy plans to

320、support the transition with cross-cutting action.This includes reforming the skill development sector so that trainers,employers and students are motivated and prepared to contribute to the shift to net zero(Government of the United Kingdom,2020b).Targets are also being set to develop local supply c

321、hains,as the disruptions,increase in prices,trade conflicts and conflict in Ukraine have emphasised the importance of energy security and independence.One of the European Commissions industry strategies,the European Solar Initiative,is targeting an annual production of 20 GW by 2025.Around EUR 8-10

322、billion would be needed,reflective of the EUR8billion trade deficit in solar equipment in the EuropeanUnion.Incentives will be required to enable bigger market shares for EU-manufactured solar products.In addition,the blocs wider climate agenda to protect its manufacturing sector may be helpful,with

323、 potential carbon footprint restrictions for imported solar products.This has already succeeded in protecting local solar manufacturing in France and would help establish a level playing field with lower-cost imported products(Fitch Solutions,2022).2 402 Renewable energy targets in national plansBox

324、 2.5 The US governments socio-economic aims for the deployment of renewables In the United States,policy makers are aiming to maximise the opportunities presented by a transition to clean energy,to support well-paid union jobs and working communities,advance environmental justice and protect public

325、health.To develop the goal,the administration analysed how every sector of the economy can spur innovation,unleash new opportunities and create benefits.The target builds on leadership from various stakeholders including businesses,investors,healthcare organisations and communities.The US 2030 targe

326、t to reduce emissions also aims to support the long-term goals of achieving a carbon-free electricity sector by 2035 and a net-zero economy by 2050,while achieving socio-economic objectives that include:Job creation.Meeting the 2030 target of reduced emissions is intended to create millions of well-

327、paid union jobs,for example in constructing transmission lines,in EV manufacturing and charging infrastructure installation,developing green hydrogen and carbon capture in cement and steel production,and in agricultural applications of carbon innovation.Local manufacturing.The objective is to streng

328、then domestic supply chains and position the United States as an exporter of clean energy products,such as EV batteries.Source:The White House(2021).Juice FlairS41A guide to designRenewable energy targets in 20222.2 QUANTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS IN THE POWER SECTORApproxima

329、tely 90%of global electricity needs have to be supplied by renewables by 2050 up from around 26%in 2019 to put the world on a climate-safe pathway(IRENA,2022a).This section provides an in-depth analysis of targets adopted in the power sector to date,and how they fair in putting the world on the path

330、 to achieving climate goals.2.2.1 RENEWABLE POWER TARGETS ARE HALFWAY MET GLOBALLY,BUT THEY ARE CONCENTRATED IN FEW REGIONS AND TECHNOLOGIES To analyse the level of ambition in renewable power targets currently in place,IRENA has undertaken an exercise to quantify them(currently active and expired)b

331、y country,and then aggregate them by region and by technology.The quantification methodology is explained in Box 2.6.Box 2.6 Methodology for quantifying renewable power targets and assumptions for major renewable energy playersIRENAs quantification exercise aims to provide estimates of the total ren

332、ewable capacity that would be installed should countries successfully meet their targets.In cases where targets are expressed in terms of fixed capacity(e.g.Brazil and VietNam),figures are used as is.In cases where the target is expressed as a share of the power mix(e.g.Japan has a 2030 renewable en

333、ergy generation target of 36-38%),the total electricity generation in the target year is obtained or derived from data provided in official documents.Where this is not possible,it is projected based on a 10-year historical cumulative annual growth rate(CAGR).The quantity of renewable energy generation in the target year is then obtained by multiplying the overall electricity generation by the targ