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1、 Foreword 01 December 2022 Low band UHF spectrum,in particular frequencies sub-one gigahertz,has become a highly valued asset sought after and used by a wide range of services,including digital terrestrial television(DTT),Programme-making and special events(PMSE)and mobile services among others.Give

2、n the critical importance of low-frequency UHF spectrum for a variety of sources and the relevance of this subject to WRC-23,the UK Spectrum Policy Forum considered it appropriate to explore the long-term use post 2030 of 470-694 MHz prior to WRC-2023 and subsequent regulatory implications from a UK

3、 perspective.Earlier this year,the UK Spectrum Policy Forum commissioned an independent report to Coleago Consulting to add to the evidence base and present a suite of options for policy and regulatory makers.The report considers the current use of these frequencies,market,and technology development

4、s,as well as potential changes in viewing and consumer habits,and proposes four potential regulatory scenarios for the future of 470-694 MHz frequencies.The four scenarios are as follows:-Scenario 1 Status Quo-Scenario 2 Flexible Use-Scenario 3 IMT600 band plan-Scenario 4 Transition to IPTV UHF spec

5、trum will remain a scarce valuable resource and,according to the Coleago report,it may not be possible to fully accommodate all stakeholder groups simultaneously.As a result,and understandably,there are competing views as to how the UK can best use these frequencies and the impact on spectrum users.

6、The UK Spectrum Policy Forum does not advocate nor recommend any of the four potential future scenarios detailed in the report.Similarly,no single scenario is considered more likely than any of the others in the report.Further commercial and technical studies will be necessary to make an informed de

7、cision on the various options detailed.Moreover,there is a significant degree of uncertainty about future trends,upcoming developments and other external factors that might have an impact in each of the four scenarios,as these are based on future-looking forecasts of likely spectrum demand.With chan

8、ges in DTT use,ongoing technological developments in mobile,DTT and PMSE systems and with future spectrum requirements yet to be identified,decisions on changes to spectrum allocations will require careful consideration.Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK FINAL REPORT prepared for 3

9、0th November 2022 Content 1.Executive Summary.6 2.Introduction.9 2.1 Background.9 2.2 Key socio-economic considerations.9 2.3 Organisation of this report.11 3.Key Industry Issues and Trends.12 3.1 DTT.12 3.1.1 Trends in linear TV viewing share and DTT receiver penetration.12 3.1.2 The impact of new

10、technologies on broadcasting spectrum use.13 3.2 Mobile.15 3.2.1 Mobile utilisation of low-band spectrum in the 4G era.15 3.2.2 Growing demand for sub-1 GHz bandwidth.16 3.2.3 Technological developments.18 3.2.4 Impact of low-band spectrum insufficiency and possible mitigation.19 3.3 PMSE.20 3.3.1 T

11、he diversity and high-level economic importance of audio PMSE.20 3.3.2 Future PMSE growth.22 3.3.3 Recent technological advances.22 3.3.4 The potential for further technological progress.22 3.3.5 Prospects for additional spectrum bands for PMSE.23 4.Main Spectrum Scenarios.25 4.1 Status quo no chang

12、e in allocation.25 4.1.1 IMT under“no change”all cases.26 4.1.2 No change Case 1:DTT grows.29 4.1.3 DTT under no change case 1:DTT grows.30 4.1.4 PMSE under no change case 1:DTT grows.31 4.1.5 DTT under no change case 2:DTT declines.32 4.1.6 PMSE under no change case 2:DTT declines.33 4.2 Flexible u

13、se-co-primary broadcast&mobile services.33 4.2.1 Co-primary case 1:DTT declines&IMT SDL used.36 4.2.2 DTT under co-primary case 1:DTT declines&IMT SDL used.36 4.2.3 IMT under co-primary case 1:DTT declines&IMT SDL used.37 4.2.4 PMSE under co-primary case 1:DTT declines&IMT SDL used.37 4.2.5 Co-prima

14、ry case 2:invest in DTT for IMT SDL.37 4.2.6 DTT under co-primary case 2:invest in DTT for IMT SDL.38 4.2.1 IMT under co-primary case 2:invest in DTT for IMT SDL.39 4.2.1 PMSE under co-primary case 2:invest in DTT for IMT SDL.40 4.3 IMT600 band plan-broadcast&mobile services split in 470-694 MHz.41

15、4.3.1 DTT under IMT600 band plan.42 4.3.2 IMT under IMT600 band plan.44 4.3.3 PMSE under IMT600 band plan.47 4.4 Transition to IPTV.49 4.4.1 DTT under transition of DTT to IPTV.50 4.4.2 IMT under a transition of DTT to IPTV.53 4.4.3 PMSE under transition of DTT to IPTV.53 4.4.1 Other stakeholders fo

16、r 470-694 MHz spectrum.54 4.5 Summary of international regulatory implications for the scenarios.54 5.Potential Areas of Further Research.56 Annex 1:Literature Search.57 Annex 2:Stakeholder Interviews.59 Annex 3:Glossary.60 Annex 3:Glossary.59 Exhibit 1:Potential outcomes and their relative social h

17、arm.10 Exhibit 2:Daily viewing of traditional broadcast TV.12 Exhibit 3:Proportion of 4G traffic carried by band and by operator in the UK.15 Exhibit 4:Spectrum deployments in 4G(total MHz uplink plus downlink).16 Exhibit 5:Current UK mobile spectrum holdings(total MHz uplink plus downlink).16 Exhib

18、it 6:Increase in total UK mobile data traffic 2021-2027.17 Exhibit 7:%Potential capacity per site by frequency range.19 Exhibit 8:Distribution of unique locations by effective total peak PMSE spectrum occupancy over 12-month period.21 Exhibit 9:No-change to spectrum allocations scenario spectrum all

19、ocation for DTT,IMT&PMSE.25 Exhibit 10:No-change to spectrum allocations scenario-evolution cases between DTT,IMT&PMSE.26 Exhibit 11:No-change to spectrum allocations scenario-evolution for IMT.27 Exhibit 12:MNO spectrum allocation across 700,800,and 900 MHz bands.27 Exhibit 13:Example defragmented

20、MNO spectrum allocation across 700,800,and 900 MHz bands.28 Exhibit 14:No-change to spectrum allocations scenario-evolution for DTT case 1.29 Exhibit 15:Projected%households penetration of TV sets by DVB-T(T1)&DVB-T2(T2)technology in the UK.30 Exhibit 16:No change to spectrum allocations scenario ex

21、ample of the evolution for DTT m-case 1.31 Exhibit 17:No change to spectrum allocations scenario-evolution for DTT case 2.32 Exhibit 18:No change to spectrum allocations scenario example of the evolution for DTT in case 2.33 Exhibit 19:Co-primary use for 470-694 MHz scenario spectrum allocation for

22、DTT,IMT&PMSE.34 Exhibit 20:Co-primary use for 470-694 MHz scenario-evolution cases for DTT,IMT&PMSE.35 Exhibit 21:Co-primary use for 470-694 MHz scenario-evolution case 1.36 Exhibit 22:Co-primary use for 470-694 MHz scenario-evolution case 2.38 Exhibit 23:Co-primary use for 470-694 MHz scenario exam

23、ple of the evolution for DTT multiplexes-case 2.39 Exhibit 24:Co-primary use for 470-694 MHz scenario example spectrum allocations case 2b.40 Exhibit 25:Broadcast and mobile split in 470-694 MHz scenario spectrum allocation for DTT,IMT&PMSE.41 Exhibit 26:Broadcast and mobile split in 470-694 MHz sce

24、nario-evolution case for DTT,IMT and PMSE.42 Exhibit 27:Broadcast and mobile split in 470-694 MHz scenario example of DTT multiplex arrangements.43 Exhibit 28:Broadcast and mobile split in 470-694 MHz scenario DTT sites in Republic of Ireland and France occupying channels 45 to 48 being co-channel w

25、ith IMT600 FDD uplink sub-band.45 Exhibit 29:Estimated field strength values exceeded for 1%of the time from French DTT sites using channel 45.46 Exhibit 30:Estimated spectrum available for professional PMSE applications for an IMT600 band plan with a nominal PMSE/IMT geographic sharing model.47 Exh

26、ibit 31:Licenced PMSE Spectrum over the period Oct 2021-Sept 2022.48 Exhibit 32:Co-primary and mobile split spectrum for transition to IPTV scenario-DTT,IMT&PMSE.49 Exhibit 33:Transition to IPTV scenario-evolution case for DTT,IMT and PMSE.50 Exhibit 34:Transition to IPTV scenario-example of DTT mul

27、tiplex arrangements.51 Exhibit 35:Broadband availability across the UK.52 Exhibit 36:Transition to IPTV scenario broadband availability by%premises,by 10Mbps and 30Mbps as of May 2022.52 Exhibit 37:Transition to IPTV scenario broadband availability by%premises,by 10Mbps and 30Mbps as of May 2022.53

28、Exhibit 38:Co-primary and mobile split spectrum for transition to IPTV scenario spectrum allocation examples.54 Exhibit 39:Implications of the international regulatory framework for the scenarios.55 Exhibit 40:Research table.57 Contact Scott McKenzie BE,MBA Coleago Consulting Ltd Tel:+44 7825 294 57

29、6 Ade Ajibulu MA,MPhil Coleago Consulting Ltd Tel:+44 7971 281876 David Barker BEng,MSc Coleago Consulting Ltd Tel:+44 7958 418816 Nick Fookes CFA,MSc Coleago Consulting Ltd Tel:+44 7710 350816 FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 6 1.Executive Summary Spe

30、ctrum is a vital national resource for the United Kingdom which generates significant economic and social benefits for citizens and consumers.Spectrum needs change over time in response to technology and market developments,so it is incumbent on spectrum management authorities to periodically review

31、 whether the current spectrum allocations are optimal.The ITU WRC-23 Agenda Item 1.5 will consider future uses of 470-694 MHz band in Region 1,given that the main existing use,broadcasting,faces potentially far-reaching market and technological changes over the coming decade.As a result,it is approp

32、riate for the UK to consider the future needs for the spectrum from existing uses principally DTT,and PMSE use in the interleaved spectrum and potential other uses such as mobile communications for which the spectrum is attractive in view of its favourable propagation characteristics.It is in this c

33、ontext that the UK Spectrum Policy Forum have commissioned this report which identifies and analyses possible future scenarios for use of the 470-694 MHz band in the UK in a post-2030-time frame.We believe the key trends that will drive changes in UHF spectrum use are:the decline of linear TV and gr

34、owth of alternative platforms for linear and non-linear television;the increasing demand for mobile spectrum and the particular importance of low band in maximising both economic and social benefits from 5G and beyond;the continued growth in the use of PMSE equipment such as wireless microphones,in-

35、ear monitors and production services for radio and TV to support broadcasting,news gathering,streaming services,theatrical productions and special events,such as concerts,sport events,conferences and trade fairs;and the convergence between mobile and broadcasting.After conducting an extensive litera

36、ture search as well as holding interviews with 17 stakeholder organisations and considering the above trends,we have identified four main scenarios as follows:Scenario 1,“Status Quo”no change in allocation.In this scenario mobile broadband demand continues to grow at a similar level to recent years,

37、but IoT growth is slower than expected.MNO revenue growth is set back due to the uncertain economic outlook and the MNOs focus turns toward cost reduction rather than maximising demand growth.The decline in linear TV is much slower than expected as SVoD struggles to recapture past levels of growth a

38、lso due to the uncertain economic outlook.However,the DTT platform does still evolve through investments made primarily in video coding upgrades for delivery of more HDTV content.PMSE demand continues to grow moderately.In this scenario,there are no changes to how the 470-694 MHz UHF spectrum is all

39、ocated from the early 2030s.The UHF spectrum range in the UK remains allocated to broadcast services on a primary basis and mobile allocated on a secondary basis,where PMSE continues to use interleaved DTT spectrum.Scenario 2,“Flexible Use”-co-primary broadcast and mobile services use for 470-694 MH

40、z.In this scenario mobile data demand continues to grow at a similar level to recent years and rural areas experience congestion.Linear TV declines steadily,but the number of DTT households falls more slowly.In one case examined there is external investment made into the DTT platform to engineer an

41、IMT supplemental downlink(SDL)spectrum dividend whilst at the same time maintaining payload capacity for DTT including support for some growth of HDTV delivery.However,internationally,there is significant support for 5G Broadcast and,whilst not adopted in the UK,this allows an IMT SDL eco-system to

42、emerge.PMSE demand continues to grow moderately.In this scenario,a co-primary allocation for broadcast and mobile services is in force for the entire 470-694 MHz range from the early 2030s.This co-primary scenario would assume that any IMT services which are deployed in the band are supplemental dow

43、nlink(SDL)and not FDD or TDD.Scenario 3,“IMT600 Band Plan”-broadcast and mobile services split in 470-694 MHz.In this scenario,mobile data demand continues to grow at a similar level to recent years and rural areas experience congestion.Linear TV declines steadily;a sizeable minority still watches l

44、inear TV,but the reach of some channels falls to very low levels.Broadcasters do question the viability of their channel mix in terms of meeting their financial and PSB objectives,resulting in some programme departures on the DTT platform.However,there is external investment made into the DTT platfo

45、rm to engineer an IMT600 spectrum dividend whilst at the same time maintaining payload capacity for DTT including support for some growth for HDTV content for other TV channels,driven through DTT network re-design.PMSE demand continues to grow moderately.In this scenario,the current 470-694 MHz band

46、 is divided into two ranges.The first range is between 470-606 MHz and allocated to broadcast on a primary basis with mobile on a FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 7 secondary basis.The second range is between 606-694 MHz and allocated to mobile on a pr

47、imary basis.However,due to its predictable nature,high demand PMSE can also share this range with mobile through coordination.The portion allocated to mobile is designed to accommodate the 2 x 35 MHz 3GPP Band 71/n71,or the recently approved 2 x 40 MHz APT 600 MHz band plan which is awaiting assignm

48、ent of a 3GPP Band number1,or sub-sets of these band plans.Scenario 4,“Transition to IPTV”.In this scenario,mobile data demand booms driven by a strong economic rebound to a shorter than expected recession.Users in rural areas experience significant congestion.Linear TV falls to low levels during th

49、e 2030s given the strong growth of SVoD and significant investment by the traditional broadcasters into their own online platforms.PMSE demand continues to grow moderately.The second and third scenarios are brought together for this fourth scenario,where the 470-694 MHz band is divided into two rang

50、es.The first range is between 470-606 MHz and allocated to broadcast and mobile on a co-primary basis.The second range is between 606-694 MHz and allocated to mobile on a primary basis.The portion allocated to mobile is designed to accommodate the 2 x 35 MHz 3GPP Band 71/n71.The first range between

51、470-606 MHz as a co-primary allocation would assume that any IMT services are deployed in the band are supplemental downlink(SDL)and not FDD or TDD.In our scenarios we have attempted to identify technological improvements that we believe could increase spectral efficiency and therefore accommodate u

52、sers requirements more fully i.e.,the technology dividend.We would urge all stakeholders to consider how they can use UHF spectrum more efficiently as this will clearly deliver wider benefits to society.During the rest of this decade we can expect to see operators deploy 5G services,and more 4G capa

53、city using 700 MHz and using re-farmed 900 MHz spectrum as 3G and eventually 2G services are shut down in the 900 MHz band.Assuming the continued growth in traffic demand,and no additional low-band IMT spectrum the mobile industry may need to explore more ways of increasing spectral efficiencies fro

54、m their existing low-band spectrum for the 2030s.A key theme in all our scenarios has been the identification and recognition that the UK DTT platform could take advantage of spectral efficiency gains,whilst maintaining expected DTT payloads,and providing a spectrum dividend for IMT and PMSE service

55、s(or increasing payloads if there were viable demand from viewers and advertisers to support it).Five of the six DTT multiplexes still use MPEG2 coding.A move to MPEG4 coding by 2030 could permit repacking of TV channels into three of the five DVB-T multiplexes,with limited impact on viewers as most

56、 TV sets should be MPEG4 capable.As a benchmark,most DTT platforms in Europe make extensive use of MPEG4 coding already,A further investment into DVB-T2 would provide an additional and meaningful spectrum dividend.Although DTT in the UK may not be technology optimised,the way in which UK MNO spectru

57、m allocations in the sub-1GHz band have occurred means that they are also not necessarily optimised in terms of spectral efficiency.There is room for improvement,but this would require some cooperation between the MNOs to defragment and trade their respective spectrum holdings.This is something high

58、lighted in Scenario 1 where there is no spectrum dividend for IMT.For Scenarios 3 and 4,where IMT600 FDD is considered,there may be increased co-channel interference risks into FDD uplink from DTT transmissions in neighbouring countries maintaining DTT in the band.However,our analysis indicates that

59、 the Republic of Ireland uses only two DTT multiplexes and Belgium will only be using four out the 26 UHF DTT channels by 2030,and the Dutch DTT network is Medium Power Medium Tower.These aspects provide scope for potential movement and amendment in bilateral agreements.There is also scope for Frenc

60、h DTT coordination,and there are also several DTT interference mitigation techniques which suggest co-channel interference risk can be minimised.Scenario 2 with its flexible mix between IMT SDL and DTT removes the IMT/DTT co-channel interference issues associated with Scenario 3 and 4.However an IMT

61、 SDL eco-system does not yet exist and has so far not been accepted at the 3GPP standards level implying this scenario may be least likely to emerge from 2030.Furthermore,IMT SDL,whilst being more harmonious with DTT,presents additional practical challenges such as how IMT could accommodate a very w

62、ide range of spectrum(470-960 MHz)without triggering the need for more antennas at base stations.IMT SDL may also mean TV receivers,particularly those using head-end amplification,may need more complex RF filtering solutions when close to IMT base stations.Notwithstanding DTT and IMT having scope to

63、 improve spectral efficiency,the way in which PMSE spectrum is used may allow for additional spectrum-sharing opportunities to be explored.Professional PMSE applications tend to need very high levels of high-quality spectrum in a very small number of locations,and very little or no spectrum in the v

64、ast majority of locations.This peak PMSE spectrum demand has historically been the point of contention between 1 https:/ FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 8 professional PMSE and IMT stakeholders of the UHF band,when UHF spectrum has been licenced to IM

65、T at a national level.Our initial analysis of over 120,000 PMSE licenses issued by Ofcom in 470-703 MHz across the UK over the last 12-month period suggests there should be ample scope for exploring IMT/PMSE spectrum sharing opportunities.For example,there were only 53 locations in the UK which held

66、 PMSE licenses totalling more than 96 MHz at some point in the 12-month period between October 2021 and September 2022.If IMT SDL or IMT600 is not deployed in these relatively small number of locations,Professional PMSE would have access to more spectrum than currently accessible via the DTT/PMSE in

67、terleaved spectrum model.In summary,despite technological improvements UHF spectrum will remain a scarce resource and we believe that it may not be possible to fully accommodate all stakeholder groups simultaneously.This necessitates the use of a balanced approach.To reduce social harm and costs to

68、society,compromises in spectrum use(such as sharing)will almost certainly be required to ensure an equitable partition that safeguards societies and users vital interests and obligations.To identify which of the scenarios is most likely to prevail we have identified several topics that we believe wi

69、ll merit further research.Options on future UHF use will also likely be impacted by international developments,and the need to maintain economies of scale in equipment and terminals markets.However,many of the issues confronting the UK will also affect numerous other countries,and this may help prom

70、ote common solutions.Our hope is that this report,and the scenarios that we have examined,will provide a constructive contribution to the discourse on this topic.FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 9 2.Introduction 2.1 Background Spectrum is an important

71、resource for the UK which generates significant economic and social benefit for UK citizens and consumers.Spectrum needs change over time in response to technology and market developments,so it is incumbent on spectrum management authorities periodically to review whether the current spectrum alloca

72、tions are optimal.The World Radiocommunication Conferences(WRCs)of the ITU are the major forum for revising frequency allocations internationally and represent an opportunity for concerted international action in responding to such changes.The Radio Regulations also detail mechanisms for coordinatio

73、n of spectrum use between neighbouring countries.These are important not only in limiting harmful cross-border interference but also in allowing some scope for divergence in frequency use between countries.WRC-23 Agenda item 1.5 will consider possible regulatory actions in the use of the 470-694 MHz

74、 band.Furthermore,the main existing use,broadcasting,may face potentially far-reaching market and technological developments over the next decade which are driving a reassessment of how broadcast content is distributed.As a result,it is appropriate for the UK to consider the future needs for the spe

75、ctrum from existing uses principally Digital Terrestrial Television(DTT)as well as Programme Making and Special Events(PMSE)use in the interleaved spectrum and potential other uses such as mobile communications for which the spectrum is attractive in view of its propagation characteristics allowing

76、good wide-area coverage and indoor penetration.It is in this context that the UK Spectrum Policy Forum retained Coleago Consulting Limited to review the industry trends that will drive the potential changes in UHF spectrum usage and to highlight the most likely scenarios for the usage of the UHF ban

77、d post 2030.2.2 Key socio-economic considerations DTT,Mobile and PMSE all bring substantial socio-economic benefits to the UK,and each of these industries have compelling claims to UHF bandwidth.DTT Despite a steady ongoing shift among younger audiences from linear to non-linear content viewing,62.5

78、%of households still relied on DTT as of March 20202,either as their primary TV access mechanism or for additional TV sets within the home.While none of the scenarios examined in this report contemplate this,were DTT to disappear,this would likely deprive vulnerable social groups of TV altogether.To

79、 the extent that the majority of households would access TV content through alternative platforms,this,and any reduction in the overall DTT offering,would likely impose predominantly social rather than economic costs on aggregate.Mobile Mobile needs additional low-band spectrum to deliver more wide-

80、area rural and deep indoor capacity.Mobile is a key broadband access mechanism where fixed alternatives are unavailable,and among lower-income user groups who cannot afford a fixed broadband connection.As discussed in Section 3.2,significant mobile network densification3 in rural areas is not feasib

81、le.Without additional sub-1GHz bandwidth assignments to mobile,the quality of deep indoor coverage will suffer,and rural congestion will increase.This would risk perpetuating the Digital Divide and hamper the future potential for in-vehicle connectivity.Reduced network performance would also risk si

82、gnificant economic harm,given the spillovers from mobile use on wider economic activity and productivity.PMSE The creative industries contribute over 116 billion in Gross Value Added(GVA)to the UK,accounting for 5.9%of the economy4.PMSE enables output that is of high economic as well as cultural imp

83、ortance for the nation,and both mobile and DTT depend on PMSE for much of the content that they convey.Much of the bandwidth requirements in this sector 2 Source:BARB survey of TV households,April 2019-March 2020.3 By densification,we mean the building of more mobile sites to increase network capaci

84、ty(we would refer to other means of increasing capacity in any given band,such as increasing the number of sectors per site,as technological enhancements).4 Source:Impact of government policy on the creative sector,28 October,2021,House of Lords Library(available at https:/lordslibrary.parliament.uk

85、/impact-of-government-policy-on-the-creative-sector/).FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 10 powers high-quality audio wireless microphones that are used in creative performances and content production.While PMSE has a high and growing bandwidth demand,th

86、is tends to be highly localised in time and space and is largely predictable(see Section 3.3).Nevertheless,it is essential that the industry continues to have access to significant quantities of low-band spectrum where needed.Due to increased body loss propagation characteristics typically above 1.5

87、GHz,higher-band spectrum does not provide a suitable alternative for professional PMSE applications,and spectrum lower down in the VHF ranges is prone to interference from ignition sources,and antenna sizes can be much longer due to increased wavelength.As such the UHF spectrum range 470-694 MHz is

88、very well optimised for body worn,professional PMSE applications.Risk of socio-economic harm Resources in this frequency range being limited,there are no scenarios for the future use of the UHF band that would fully satisfy the needs of each of these three industry groups.During the interviews that

89、we conducted,stakeholders highlighted a range of adverse socio-economic effects that could arise in the event of low-band spectrum insufficiency within their respective sectors.However,not all these harms are equally severe,and it may be helpful to rank them qualitatively as illustrated below.Exhibi

90、t 1:Potential outcomes and their relative social harm Source:Coleago Consulting More limited access to mobile broadband in areas where fixed broadband is prevalent might be deemed less harmful than absence of adequate broadband due to mobile network congestion in rural areas.Policy measures to addre

91、ss fixed broadband affordability may exist,at least in principle,where infrastructure is available.Similarly,reduced mobile video quality in areas and at times of high network congestion should be less of a concern than a comprehensive lack of connectivity for rural communities and low-income groups

92、.A respondent from the mobile industry emphasised the importance of consistent quality of service,which would be difficult to maintain if certain spectrum resources had to be shared with other users at certain times and locations.It seems to us,however,that while it would indeed be for the mobile ne

93、twork operators(MNO)to deal with customer complaints,having additional low-band resources most of the time and in most locations should still be preferable to not having access to these at all.Other mobile industry stakeholders agree with this assessment.Sharing between mobile and PMSE,for example,m

94、ay still allow the industry to boost network capacity,especially in rural areas,which could help address the Digital Divide.In the TV broadcast domain,a reduced choice of DTT channels is bound to be less harmful than being deprived of TV altogether.Likewise,offering either Standard Definition(SD)or

95、High Definition(HD)TV programmes(rather than both)would impose less severe social costs than having access to fewer channels.A possible future reduction in DTT output would likely also make DTT relatively less competitive as a platform.This could threaten its sustainability on a standalone commercia

96、l basis,though public funding would remain an option to ensure continued operations.Threats of HighersocialharmLowersocial harmPerpetuating the Digital DivideHampering creative industries,performing arts and special eventsDepriving vulnerable social groups of TVMore limited access to mobile broadban

97、d where alternatives existFewer TV channels accessible by vulnerable social groupsSome channels SD only,others HD onlyLower competitiveness of DTT versus alternative platformsEconomic and social harmEconomic,cultural and social harmMainly social harmAffordability issues when mobile used as a substit

98、ute for fixed Broadband accessReplacement of PMSE equipment(with government support)SD rather than HD mobile video and gaming(at certain times)MNOs having to explain temporary bandwidth limitations to customerse.g.in PMSE UHF sharing scenarios FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band

99、in the UK Copyright 2022 11 economic losses within the DTT-specific value-chain,provided these do not result in a loss of TV access for more vulnerable groups,might also be deemed less detrimental to society as a whole than some of the other possible outcomes.Clearly,the object of future policy deve

100、lopment must be to minimise harm and net costs to society.This will call for a balanced approach.Policy options on future UHF use will also likely be constrained by international developments,and the need to maintain economies of scale in equipment and terminals markets.However,many of the issues co

101、nfronting the UK likely also affect numerous other countries,and this may help promote common future solutions.Our hope is that this report,and the scenarios that we have examined,will provide a constructive contribution to the discourse on this topic.2.3 Organisation of this report From here on,thi

102、s report is organised as follows.Section 3 addresses key industry issues and trends,for DTT,mobile and the PMSE sector respectively.Within this context,we develop four main scenarios on future UHF spectrum use in Section 4.Section 5,finally,lists our recommendations for further research.FINAL REPORT

103、 Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 12 3.Key Industry Issues and Trends 3.1 DTT 3.1.1 Trends in linear TV viewing share and DTT receiver penetration DTT is the prime means in the UK for the delivery of free-to-air broadcasting services.These services play an importan

104、t role in the UK economy both directly through the economic impact of the transmission providers and broadcasting channels,and indirectly through the economic impact on the wider ecosystem of programme production and ancillary services.DTT also provides significant social value through the delivery

105、of public service broadcasting which provides universal access to a wide range of high-quality content free at the point of use,and reflects,represents and serves the needs of the UKs varied and diverse population.One indication of the importance of broadcasting is its reach,i.e.,the proportion of t

106、he population regularly accessing programmes or channels.For example,the reach of linear TV channels5(over DTT,cable and satellite)across the population as a whole was still high at 86.3%in 2021,though it had fallen from 95%in 2011.For 1634-year-olds,linear TV reach in 2021 was lower than for the ge

107、neral population,but still substantial at 74.5%(down from 91.4%in 2011).In comparison,an Ofcom survey measured the reach of alternative platforms to the PSB DTT channels as follows:iPlayer(74%),Netflix(69%)and YouTube(56%)in 20226.In terms of minutes of television viewed,linear TV fell proportionate

108、ly more than in terms of reach.Daily broadcast TV viewing over the whole population was still substantial at 179 minutes a day in 2021,but had fallen from 242 minutes in 2011,as shown in the graph below.In contrast,it fell more rapidly,from 165 to 53 minutes a day,for 16-24-year-olds in the same per

109、iod7.However,there has been a corresponding rise in other video services including SVOD and YouTube,so that the trend growth in total minutes watched per day has been quite moderate.As a result,the share of broadcast TV8 in all video content Public Service Broadcasters(PSBs)only fell from 73%to 59%b

110、etween 2017 and 2021 with a corresponding rise in SVoD and online viewing.Although there was a small shift away from SVoD in the height of the pandemic and the current cost of living crisis may also affect SVoD,we expect SVoD use to move back on trend in the near future.Exhibit 2:Daily viewing of tr

111、aditional broadcast TV Source:BARB In summary,although linear TV is still in a strong position today,the experience of the past ten years suggests the beginnings of a possibly fundamental shift in the consumption of video content in the UK and in most of our European neighbours.While there is much u

112、ncertainty,it is likely that linear TV will remain the most popular mode of TV 5 Ofcom,Media Nations,2022,source:BARB 6 Both reported in Ofcom,Media Nations,2022,(BARB data,Seven-day consolidated.Reach criteria:3+consecutive minutes)7 BARB,Research criteria is 15+minutes.As reported in Ofcom Media N

113、ations 2022:Interactive Report,https:/www.ofcom.org.uk/research-and-data/tv-radio-and-on-demand/media-nations-reports/media-nations-2022/media-nations-2022-interactive-report 8 Ofcom,Media Nations,2022.This includes live,recorded playback and the PSB channels SVoD services.05010015020025030020112012

114、201320142015201620172018201920202021Daily minutes of viewingMinutes of Viewing per DayAdults 16-24All individuals(4+)FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 13 consumption in the short to medium term,but in the longer term(beyond 2030)it is conceivable that s

115、treaming video on-demand and online consumption of video content may come to dominate.As for the commercial sector of the broadcasting industry,it remains healthy,but it is facing competition for advertising revenue.Pre-pandemic figures show a clear decline in TV advertising in the UK,from 5.1 to 4.

116、5 billion over 2016-19 and a rise in online advertising from 4.6 to 6.1 billion over the same period9.However,total TV advertising expenditure rebounded strongly in 2021 up to 4.7 billion from 3.9 billion in 202010.Furthermore,Ofcom reports that broadcast video on demand(BVoD)e.g.All 4,iPlayer and I

117、TV Hub advertising is growing,but from a much smaller base than for linear television(733 million in 2021)and that streaming video on demand(SVoD)players,such as Netflix and Disney,are also considering introducing advertising supported packages.In conjunction with a potential switch away from linear

118、 TV,there may be a concomitant shift from digital broadcasting,particularly DTT,towards platforms such as IPTV and social media such as YouTube.The proportion of households where the only receiver is DTT fell by about 40%from 26.8%in 2016 to 15.4%in 202211.However,the number of households with a DTT

119、 receiver,including second or third sets where the primary set is cable or satellite,has only fallen slightly in recent years and was relatively high at 62%in 202012.Given these trends,it is clearly possible that DTT may end up serving a minority of viewers in the longer term,even taking into accoun

120、t second and third sets.In tandem,linear TV may decline to a much smaller level which may mean that the business case for some of commercial channels on the DTT platform becomes unviable and the case for the DTT platform as a whole is further undermined.However,while there may be compelling economic

121、 arguments to facilitate a transition from DTT in the long term,there are a number of other important factors that should be taken into account.First,those viewers still be reliant on DTT in the future may be more vulnerable than average.For example,the over 75 age group is most likely to depend on

122、broadcast content for some form of social inclusion and is likely to be the most reluctant to move away from DTT.In addition,those on lower incomes may find it difficult to afford upgrading their receivers and potentially having to pay higher charges for a suitable broadband connection for IPTV.Give

123、n that 8.3%of households which relied on DTT alone for television had no broadband connection in 2020(although this may not fully overlap with low-income households)the number of people concerned may be material.Hence,considerable social harm social exclusion,insecurity and loneliness could arise if

124、 the interests of these groups are not appropriately dealt with.Other considerations relevant to this policy decision would be the long-standing principles of universal access to public service television and content free at the point of use.One solution would be to retain some UHF capacity for DTT

125、broadcasting,particularly for the PSB channels.Other options include targeted programmes to develop digital skills and targeted subsidies for upgrading receivers.Secondly,for a transition to IPTV to be feasible,near universal broadband coverage of sufficient capacity to support the required channels

126、 would need to be in place the coverage of the PSB DTT multiplexes is 98.5%.Currently,superfast broadband coverage,i.e.,providing download speeds of at least 30Mbps,is 96%in the UK meaning over 1 million households are not yet covered.Moreover,superfast broadband take-up was only 69%where it is avai

127、lable.Hence,broadband coverage and affordability issues may also need to be resolved.3.1.2 The impact of new technologies on broadcasting spectrum use Any reduction in the UHF spectrum available for broadcasting in the UK would lead to a reduction in the number of channels that could be supported,ab

128、sent the deployment of more spectrally efficient technologies.Greater spectral efficiency in broadcasting use of UHF spectrum could be achieved both within the confines of the current DTT network and through a more radical change to a different terrestrial transmission technology.The following trend

129、s and barriers to their adoption are explored in this section:upgrading SD channels using MPEG2 Video Coding to H.264/Advanced Video Coding(AVC)with MPEG4;switch to DVB-T2 across all multiplexes,with or without HEVC(High Efficiency Video Coding);and 5G Broadcast.9 Ofcom,Media Nations,2022 10 Ofcom,M

130、edia Nations,2022 11 Ofcom,Media Nations,2022 12 BARB,Viewing Report,June 2021 FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 14 DVB-T2,is a more spectrally efficient transmission technology for digital transmission than the original DVB-T technology introduced for

131、DTT.DVB-T2 enables higher bit rate transmission and delivers an almost 50%increase in capacity compared to DVB-T13.The introduction of at least the H.264/AVC MPEG4 compression standard would allow a significant increase in spectral efficiencies where MPEG2 is currently used.H.265/HEVC(High Efficienc

132、y Video Coding),as,in conjunction with DVB-T2 would offer further gains in capacity.Some countries,such as Germany(2017)and Italy(2021-2023),are switching or have switched over their whole terrestrial TV network to DVB-T2.Germany also uses H.265/HEVC throughout its DTT platform.In the UK,DVB-T2 has

133、been used for the transmission of a limited number of high definition(HD)TV channels since 2009.However,the original DVB-T standard has been used to transmit standard definition(SD)channels on most of the multiplexes(five out of six).Converting the remaining DVB-T multiplexes to the DVB-T2 would all

134、ow a combination of more SD and HD channels to be transmitted in the same amount of spectrum(assuming there was viable demand from viewers and advertisers to support it)or enable the current mix of channels to be transmitted over less spectrum14.A switch to DVB-T2 would require significant network u

135、pgrades and substantial costs for broadcasters.Viewers would also need compatible receivers to be able to receive DVB-T2 signals.However,in 2020,88%of receivers were HD compatible15 driven by the relatively early introduction of HD on DTT,cable and satellite and more recently by increasing adoption

136、of large TV receivers on which the difference between SD and HD is readily visible.An EC study forecast that the cost of replacing receivers with DVB-T2(with MPEG4 coding)in the UK would be roughly 50 million16 in 2022,assuming a 7-year natural replacement cycle.The same study found that a DVB-T2 re

137、ceiver replacement to HEVC instead of MPEG4 would add an extra to 130%to replacement costs(on average across EU member states).On this basis,the costs of a transition to DVB-T2 appear significant,but moderate compared to the overall size of the DTT sector.However,a sizeable minority has yet to upgra

138、de.As discussed in the previous section,these viewers are likely to be older and on lower incomes than average,hence a programme of government support may be necessary to encourage them to switch.For comparison,the Italian government made available a package of 100 million to support viewers in Ital

139、ys transition to DVB-T2.5G Broadcast is a potential converged mobile and TV broadcasting service,which would extend the delivery of broadcast content from fixed receivers to mobile devices,including in-vehicle systems.The service would be delivered over 5G using either a broadcast network,a cellular

140、 network or an amalgam of the two.However,5G Broadcast is still in the early stages of development though a significant number of trials and testbeds having taken place including 5G VISTA in the UK and 5G MEDIA2GO in Germany17.Much remains uncertain about the ideal use cases for the platform,its mar

141、ket positioning and its chances for commercial success.Our research and stakeholder discussions have shown that one of the initial drivers of interest in 5G Broadcast has been to deliver live content sports,news,concerts based on the belief of an unmet demand for live broadcasting since consumers ma

142、y be on the move when a live event is taking place.Another use case being considered is to use 5G Broadcast as a distribution channel for public information during an emergency or natural disaster.Opinion varies as to whether 5G Broadcast would develop as a complementary service to broadcast TV or a

143、s a replacement for the DTT network in the longer term.Some commentators reconcile these views by suggesting 5G Broadcast could begin as a complementary service then potentially evolve later on to replace DTT.As yet,the bandwidth delivered by 5G Broadcast(30Mbps)has been unable to match that provide

144、d by DVB-T2(c.40Mbps depending on encoding)18 and 5G Broadcast requires a higher signal to interference and noise ratio.Trials have also found that,in order to serve mobile devices,a significantly higher power level is necessary than for rooftop aerials.This requires the deployment of additional Low

145、 Power Low Tower(LPLT)sites alongside the High Power High Tower(HPHT)of the current broadcast networks and the additional sites are most likely to be required in urban areas.13 EBU,“Frequency and Network Planning Aspects of DVB-T2”,2011 https:/tech.ebu.ch/docs/news/2012_01/wrcdocs/Planning%20aspects

146、%20of%20DVB-T2%20-%20EBU%20TECH3348%20-%20May%202011.pdf 14 We note there has been some activity in broadcasting Ultra High Definition(UHD)over DTT for example,the French Open Tennis Championships since 2020 and 2022 World Cup games in Spain.Moreover,the emerging ASTC 3.0 standard in the United Stat

147、es provides more capacity than DVB-T2 and enables 4K or UHD image quality.However,in our view there is not yet enough evidence to judge whether significant demand for UHD over DTT might develop in the UK.15 https:/ VVA&LS telcom for the EC,“Study on the use of the sub-700 MHz band(470-694 MHz)”,2022

148、 17 For more details of 5G Broadcast trials and projects see:EBU TR 044,“Trials Tests and Projects Relating To 4G/5G Broadcast Supported by European PSB”,2022,https:/tech.ebu.ch/docs/techreports/tr044.pdf 18 VVA&LS telcom for the EC,“Study on the use of the sub-700 MHz band(470-694 MHz)”,2022 FINAL

149、REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 15 Hence,a 5G Broadcast network could incur greater costs than a traditional broadcast network.Although,there is little direct evidence to date on the level of these costs,there is some indicative research.An EBU study19 refe

150、renced by the European Commission20 found that,in Germany,an LPLT network with a similar spectral efficiency to DVB-T2 would cost approximately seven to eight times than the cost of the DTT network.This 2014 study considered the network density required to achieve a similar capacity for mobile/light

151、 indoor reception over an LPLT network(LTE)compared to existing portable reception over the German DTT network.We reiterate that this study was for a different technology to 5G Broadcast,and that further study of the costs of a 5G Broadcast network compared to DTT would be desirable to inform discus

152、sion of its potential.The potential need for additional sites compared to a traditional DTT network may have implications for the 5G Broadcast business model.Would a broadcaster itself deploy the additional sites needed to serve mobile devices given the substantial costs involved and the ongoing dec

153、line in linear TV?Or would it make more sense for at least the fixed costs of the network(but not the additional capacity costs)to be shared with mobile operators or independent tower companies?A variety of arrangements could be used from purchasing dedicated capacity upfront to a capacity as a serv

154、ice model.Another challenge to be overcome for 5G Broadcast to become a replacement for DTT,would be to ensure that the traditional receiver(connected to the rooftop aerial)is 5G Broadcast compatible.This would require sufficient time and forward planning for compatible TV sets to be manufactured an

155、d to penetrate across households through the normal replacement cycle.Even so,similar issues would likely arise as for a DVB-T2 transition,with digital literacy and affordability issues for a significant minority of viewers.3.2 Mobile Due to its superior propagation characteristics,conferring signif

156、icant wide-area and indoor coverage benefits,spectrum below 1GHz is a very important resource for mobile.As outlined below,existing sub-1GHz allocations carry a disproportionate amount of current mobile traffic per MHz of available bandwidth.This reflects the fact that much of the mobile usage occur

157、s in locations that are hard to reach with higher bands notably indoors and in rural areas(albeit the latter tends to account for a small proportion of total mobile consumption).If the unrelenting growth in total mobile broadband demand persists,and without effective mitigation,pressure on the low b

158、ands would continue to increase.In section 3.2.1 below,we examine the proportion of traffic carried in low and mid-bands.We focus on 4G for the sole reason that we were unable to source information on utilisation by band across other technologies.Total existing mobile spectrum holdings in low and mi

159、d bands are considered in sections 3.2.2 and 3.2.3,within the context of the overall rise in demand for mobile capacity,and technological developments.Impact and mitigation are discussed in section 3.2.4.3.2.1 Mobile utilisation of low-band spectrum in the 4G era Crowdsourced network data published

160、by Tutela suggests that the 800 MHz band,accounting for around 13%of 4G bandwidth,carried over a third of total 4G traffic in the UK in 2020.Exhibit 3:Proportion of 4G traffic carried by band and by operator in the UK Source:Tutela based on data from March-August 2020 19 EBU,“Assessment of available

161、 options for the distribution of broadcast services”,2014 https:/tech.ebu.ch/docs/techreports/tr026.pdf 20 VVA&LS telcom for the EC,as above FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 16 The marked difference between 3 UK and EE versus O2 and Vodafone,in the pro

162、portion of 4G traffic carried by 800 MHz is likely explained by the following factors.O2 and Vodafones 800 MHz holdings are double those for EE and 3UK,yielding a higher proportion of bandwidth this band(albeit the difference in%800 MHz bandwidth with 3 UK is narrower,as shown in Exhibit 4 below);A

163、2 x 10 MHz 800 MHz channel(O2 and Vodafone)is more efficient spectrally than a 2 x 5 MHz channel(EE and 3UK),yielding both higher net capacity per MHz and higher channel data-speed performance;3 UK(and to a lesser extent EE)may plausibly have deployed 800 MHz less widely at the time,as the cost per

164、MHz for an inefficient(and less performant)2 x 5 MHz channel is around double that for a 2 x 10 MHz channel,and many sites originally built for 1800 MHz and above needed costly rebuilds to carry the larger 800 MHz antennas21;EE and 3 UKs network grids are denser,as these were originally designed for

165、 higher bands(with inferior coverage characteristics)than O2 and Vodafones,which were originally built for 900 MHz as a result,EE and 3 UK may plausibly be able to address a higher proportion of their respective demand with higher bands.The 4G spectrum holdings aligned to Tutelas analysis are shown

166、below:Exhibit 4:Spectrum deployments in 4G(total MHz uplink plus downlink)BT/EE O2 Vodafone 3 UK Total 800 MHz 10 20 20 10 60 1800 MHz 80 10-30 120 2.1 GHz 30 20 30 20 100 2.3 GHz-40-40 2.6 GHz FDD 80-40-120 2.6 GHz TDD-20-20 Total bandwidth(MHz)200 90 110 60 460%Sub1 GHz 5.0%22.2%18.2%16.7%13.1%Sou

167、rce:Coleago based on Pedroc analysis22 Taking shares of customers as a rough proxy for shares of 4G data traffic,we obtain a weighted average utilisation per MHz in the 800 MHz band in the UK that is 3.8x that for higher bands with over a third of UK 4G traffic carried by 800 MHz.This underscores th

168、e significance of low-band holdings for mobile services.3.2.2 Growing demand for sub-1 GHz bandwidth Following the awards of 700 MHz,1400 MHz and 3.4-3.8 GHz spectrum to mobile,MNOs sub-1 GHz holdings now account for around 19%of their total low and mid-band holdings(17%if we exclude the 700 MHz SDL

169、,which still lacks a viable international ecosystem).Exhibit 5:Current UK mobile spectrum holdings(total MHz uplink plus downlink)BT/EE VMO2 Vodafone 3 UK Total 700 MHz 20 20-20 60 700 MHz SDL 20-20 800 MHz 10 20 20 10 60 900 MHz-35 35-70 Total sub1 GHz 50 75 55 30 210 1400 MHz-20 20 40 21 EE may pl

170、ausibly have deployed 800MHz more widely than 3 UK at the time,because of EEs need to meet higher network availability metrics under its Emergency Services Network(ESN)contract with the UK government.Note that as of today,we believe that operators policies both in the UK and across Europe are genera

171、lly to deploy sub1GHz spectrum on all sites in which this is feasible.22 Source:https:/pedroc.co.uk/content/uk-commercial-mobile-spectrum,accessed in October 2022.FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 17 BT/EE VMO2 Vodafone 3 UK Total 1800 MHz 90 10 10 30 1

172、40 2.1 GHz 40 20 30 29 119 2.3 GHz-40-40 2.6 GHz FDD 100 40-140 2.6 GHz TDD-25 20-45 3.4-3.8 GHz 80 80 90 140 390 Total mid bands 310 175 210 219 914 Total bandwidth(MHz)360 250 264 249 1,123%Sub1 GHz 13.9%29.9%20.7%12.0%18.7%Source:Ofcom Nevertheless,mobile-industry stakeholders have indicated that

173、 they continue to experience significant low-band congestion,even though operators actively direct traffic to higher frequencies where possible,only defaulting to the sub-1GHz bands when these are the only resources customer devices can“see”.Pressure on low-band spectrum is likely to increase dramat

174、ically if the unrelenting growth on overall mobile data traffic persist,which we believe is plausible,albeit future projections are of course subject to uncertainty.Ofcoms Communications Market Report 2022 suggests that total mobile data traffic grew by 36.2%between 2020 and 2021,reaching an average

175、 of 6.9GB per capita in 2021.Ericsson projects average annual growth in traffic of 24%between 2021 and 2027 implying traffic 3.6x 2021 levels if the UK follows the same trend23.We have not seen external forecasts beyond 2027.However,by 2030,which is the earliest data by which scenarios for future UH

176、F band use are being considered,these forecasts imply that traffic will have grown to:7x 2021 levels if demand continues to grow by a 24%compound annual growth rate(CAGR)beyond 2027;and 5x 2021 levels if the average annual growth rate were to halve after 2027.And by 2035,traffic will have grown to:1

177、9x 2021 levels if demand continues to grow by a 24%compound annual growth rate(CAGR)beyond 2027;and 9x 2021 levels if the average annual growth rate were to halve after 2027.This is broadly consistent with industry expectations of 100 GB mobile data consumption per capita within 15-20 years24.Exhibi

178、t 6:Increase in total UK mobile data traffic 2021-2027 Source:Coleago consulting based on Ofcom data and Ericsson projections 23 Source:Ericsson Mobility Report,June 2022.Note that Ericssons estimate for Western European mobile data traffic growth is very close to the figure implied by Ofcom for the

179、 UK between 2020 and 2021,suggesting similar trends across the UK and Western Europe.24 We have seen multiple projections by operators internationally within the context of spectrum auctions that suggest this.0.05.010.015.020.025.020212027EB per yearUK mobile data usageLow-band demandAddressable wit

180、h mid bands3.6x FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 18 Assuming the growth in demand is uniform across the network,we would expect a similar proportion of future traffic being hard to reach with mid bands(above 1 GHz and below 6 GHz)roughly a third,accord

181、ing to our 4G analysis in Section 3.2.1 above.The issue is that there is significant scope to the capacity per MHz for mid-bands,using technology enhancements,as outlined in Section 3.2.3 below,but there are very few opportunities to do so in sub-1GHz bands.Given this projected growth in demand,and

182、without either additional sub-1GHz spectrum or effective mitigation,severe congestion is likely to be felt by 2030 in the low bands in particular.The recent award of 700 MHz spectrum to mobile represents a significant increase in low-band capacity relative to 2020(the time of our 4G analysis),albeit

183、 one should bear in mind that traffic will likely have grown by around 70%between 2020 and 202225.Further refarming of 900 MHz spectrum from 2G to 5G and from 3G to 5G will also contribute to low-band capacity(albeit some resources will need to be kept for legacy traffic26),as will future refarming

184、of 800 MHz from 4G to 5G.Even accounting for the increases in spectral efficiency described below,these increases in low band capacity are likely to fall well-short of projected demand by 2030 and even more severely so by 2035.The only remaining route to increase low-band capacity would be to densif

185、y the network.As discussed in section 3.2.4 however,the scope for this is curtailed by both economic and practical factors.3.2.3 Technological developments 5G already improves on the performance and capacity achievable with 4G,for a given configuration typically increasing capacity per MHz by around

186、 15%27.Two further approaches to improving spectral efficiency include technology enhancements,such as sectorisation and higher-order Multiple-Input/Multiple-Output(MIMO)antenna systems.Adding a fourth sector to a three-sector site may extend the effective site capacity from a given band by around 4

187、0%28.This result(more than the one-third increase in the number of sectors)is due to the uneven distribution of traffic across the site.Sectorisation and higher-order MIMO both support 4G and 5G.Accordingly,massive MIMO will help address the growing demand for 4G capacity in the near term,while prov

188、iding future 5G air-interface functions that can be activated through software upgrades.A conservative rule of thumb is that each doubling of the MIMO order above 4 x 4 MIMO(i.e.,doubling of the transmit and receive antennas on each sector)increases capacity by a factor of around 1.3x.For example,64

189、 x 64 order MIMO(massive MIMO)can generate over 3.3x more capacity per MHz than a 2 x 2 MIMO configuration(the base for 4G and 5G)29.Some operators and vendors are even more optimistic about the MIMO uplift.Given that lower band antennas are larger and due to space limitations on sites,increased sec

190、torisation is easier to implement in mid-and high bands.The same is true for higher MIMO orders,there may be scope for up to 4 x 4 deployments in sub-1GHz bands,as discussed further in 4.1.1.Note that while 4 x 2 MIMO is likely to be the best achievable in low band with mobile handsets(due to device

191、-antenna constraints),4 x 4 might be feasible for connected vehicles and some future rural fixed-wireless applications that rely on low band for connectivity.Based on current mobile industry holdings and assuming 5G is deployed in all bands with 64 x 64 MIMO in 3.5 GHz and 2.3 GHz,8 x 8 MIMO in 2.6

192、GHz TDD,and 4 x 4 MIMO in all other bands30,sub-1GHz bandwidth would account for less than 10%of potential site capacity.This percentage could be even lower if even higher order MIMO is assumed in the 3.5GHz band.25 With 36.6%growth between 2020 and 2021,as outlined above,compounded by growth likely

193、 in excess of 24%between 2021 and 2022,we obtain an increase of around 70%between 20wo and 2022.26 In particular,legacy machine-to-machine devices may require some spectrum to be kept on 2G or 3G for some time yet,albeit we consider this a second-order issue for overall spectrum needs.27 See also ht

194、tps:/tools.pedroc.co.uk/4g-speed/and https:/tools.pedroc.co.uk/5g-speed/28 Source:Coleago discussions with operators.29 We assume a downlink throughput of 1.8 bit/s/Hz for 2x2 MIMO and 2.2 bit/s/Hz for 4x4 MIMO.64 represents a 4-fold doubling of 4.The capacity per Hz for 64x64 MIMO is calculated as

195、1.31.31.31.32.2=6.0 bit/s/Hz which is 3.3x that for 2x2 MIMO.The 1.3x multiplier reflects a view expressed to us by the GSMA.30 This yields an optimistic outlook for the existing sub-1 GHz holdings,yet the potential capacity per site from low bands still remains below 10%of the total achievable).FIN

196、AL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 19 Exhibit 7:%Potential capacity per site by frequency range Source:Coleago Consulting There is also scope to further enhance total network capacity by deploying small cells,however these tend to be focused on urban areas

197、and are not suitable for sub-1GHz.In short,there are ample opportunities to extend the capacity provided by mid bands,but very few that address rural wide-area and deep indoor coverage quality.3.2.4 Impact of low-band spectrum insufficiency and possible mitigation With industry expectations that tot

198、al mobile data demand will exceed 100 GB per capita(15x current levels)within 15-20 years,the mobile industry is likely to eventually“run out of road”whether or not extra sub-1GHz spectrum is made available for mobile during the intervening period.This is of course only the case if the rapid growth

199、in mobile data demand does indeed persist in the years ahead,and assuming the distribution of traffic across time and space remains as it is today.Under these assumptions,which we believe are plausible,this could result in a significant proportion of future demand not being adequately served in the

200、absence of effective mitigation.This could be very costly to society,given the high reliance that businesses,consumers and,increasingly,devices,place on mobile connectivity.Rural communities would no longer be able to rely on mobile as a substitute for fixed broadband access,as increasing levels of

201、rural network congestion degrade the service.Low-band congestion would likely also hamper the future potential for in-vehicle connectivity across the country.Where fixed broadband is available for backhaul,indoor coverage solutions may address mobile capacity needs within commercial premises.Multi-o

202、perator systems,operated by accredited neutral hosts,would ensure seamless provision of services to customers within these locations.Residential premises are harder to deal with,albeit signal repeaters and femtocells may offer a possible avenue.A concern expressed by mobile industry stakeholders is

203、that incorrect installation or use of these by consumers could lead to complaints which are difficult and costly for mobile operators to address especially if the problem lies with broadband connections provided by other parties.Nevertheless,in the absence of better alternatives,this might not be in

204、surmountable.Yet,femtocells would not address indoor capacity for(lower income)households that use mobile as a substitute for fixed broadband,since these require a fixed broadband for backhaul as does Wi-Fi.Nor would hotspot-type solutions address demand in sparsely populated areas,where premises ar

205、e far apart,or the future needs of connected vehicles.With respect to the latter,a report for the German telecoms regulator states that“at least 50 MHz will be required for mobile radio applications in the spectrum below 1 GHz to support automated driving in rural areas”31.31 Our translation,from Pe

206、rspektiven Zur Nutzung Des Uhf-Bands 470-694 Mhz Nach 2030,Studie im Auftrag der Bundesnetzagentur,Goldmedia GmbH Strategy Consulting and Fraunhofer-Institut fr Integrierte Schaltungen IIS,November 2021.Stakeholders participating in this study have suggested that enhanced DTT to vehicles might subst

207、itute some of the demand for mobile-to-vehicle data.While we agree with the principle,a discussion on the extent to which this could mitigate mobile spectrum constraints is beyond the scope of this report.18.7%9.6%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%MHz%Capacity%of totalSub1GHz1400MHz1800MHz2100MHz2300

208、MHz2600MHz3500MHz FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 20 Sub-1GHz insufficiency may be felt most acutely in rural communities,beyond the reach of fixed broadband.In theory,additional low-band capacity could be delivered by deploying more radio sites in th

209、ose areas.But with demand in those same areas increasing by over an order of magnitude,the levels of future densification required would be vast.Moreover,rural sites tend to be far more expensive to build and operate,due to more complicated power provision and backhaul transmission.The commercial bu

210、siness case for such infrastructure build is non-existent:despite explosive growth in mobile consumption,industry service revenues have been in decline over the past decade32,and mobile operators often struggle to earn their cost of capital33.Nor is it clear that public funding of rural densificatio

211、n could provide a comprehensive solution.The Mobile Infrastructure Project(MIP)launched by the UK government in 2011,for example,only delivered 75 rural sites(covering 7,200 premises)against an original target of 575(intended to cover 60,000 premises)34.A number of stakeholders outside the mobile in

212、dustry also raised the Shared Rural Network(SRN)initiative as possible mitigation for a lack of low-band resources for mobile.However,the main objective of SRN is to address not-spots and partial not-spots.While expanding the footprint of mobile communications is unquestionably of high importance,we

213、 do not consider SRN a substitute for bandwidth which would be needed to address future capacity needs rather than for coverage per se.A further point raised was that new building regulations result in premises being intrinsically difficult to penetrate with either low or higher band spectrum.While

214、this may affect new builds,this issue is unlikely to bear on much more than 1%of premises nationally over the time-horizon under consideration,and we do not consider it material to the present study.Future reorganisation including defragmentation of the sub-1GHz mobile band-plan could improve the ef

215、ficiency with which these resources are used and deliver an uplift of 20-40%to capacity,as outlined in 4.1.1.However,this would certainly still fall far short of needs,and is highly unlikely to materialise within the medium-term timeframe under consideration within this report.Access to additional s

216、ub-1GHz spectrum,even on a shared basis,would provide much needed respite to operators and their customers.It would delay the point at which the industry does indeed“run out of road”and might allow for smoother(and economically less disruptive)longer term mitigation.3.3 PMSE 3.3.1 The diversity and

217、high-level economic importance of audio PMSE Audio PMSE use in the UHF band comprises a number of different services including radio microphones and in-ear monitors(IEMs)which are used by musicians and television presenters to hear a personalised feed of music or instructions,in support of live perf

218、ormance or in content production.Significant economic value added is associated with the activities that audio PMSE helps support.For example,the film industry contributed an estimated 6 billion to UK Gross Value Added(GVA)in 2017(on a turnover 14.8 billion)35,theatre generated 1.3 billion in revenu

219、e in 201836,and festivals and concerts generated revenues of 1.1bn and 1.3bn revenues in 201737.Though only a portion of these revenues should be attributed to PMSE(and it is difficult to determine what this proportion should be),PMSE has become an integral part of delivering these services.Without

220、PMSE,the attractiveness and value of many cultural,sporting and other events,and of similar activities in the broadcasting sector would be diminished.Audio PMSE users are strikingly diverse.They run the gamut from television coverage of the largest,premium events such as the Eurovision song contest

221、and international sporting championships,to festivals and major theatrical productions,to other commercial users such as trade fairs,local theatre(1,100)and film/video/TV post-production(16,240 companies)to non-commercial users such religious venues(40,000 churches and 1,825 mosques)and schools(32,0

222、00).32 Based on mobile service revenue estimates obtained from successive Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Wireless Matrices.33 For example,F estimates Vodafone Groups return on invested capital(ROIC)at 2.9%,significantly below its cost of capital(WACC),estimated between 4.8%and 7.9%by Valueinve

223、sting.io.34 Source:DCMS,Mobile Infrastructure Project Impact and Benefits Report,July 2017.35 BFI,“The UK Film Economy”,2018,https:/www2.bfi.org.uk/sites/bfi.org.uk/files/downloads/bfi-uk-film-economy-2018-12-19.pdf.GVA is the amount by which a sector adds to economic value and is estimated as the r

224、evenues of the end-product/service minus the costs of the inputs(raw materials,components and services)used to make the product/service.36 Venues represented by the Society of London Theatre and UK Theatre,https:/solt.co.uk/about-london-theatre/press-office/solt-and-uk-theatre-continue-to-work-with-

225、government-to-find-solutions-for-the-theatre-industry/37 Plasa,Entertainment Technology Industry Research Report 2017/18 FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 21 The diversity of PMSE users is also reflected in the uneven distribution of locations in terms

226、of their spectrum usage.The graph below,based on our processing of Ofcom data of over 120,000 PMSE licenses in 470-694MHz over the period of Oct 2021 to Oct 2022,shows that fewer than 2.5%of 1km2 locations occupied more than 104MHz of unique spectrum at some time over the year.Occupied spectrum in t

227、his context takes into account the effective increase in PMSE spectrum needs due to intermodulation interference avoidance,which is necessary for many large-scale events using PMSE Exhibit 8:Distribution of unique locations by effective total peak PMSE spectrum occupancy over 12-month period Source:

228、Ofcom and Coleago This translates into spectrum demand as follows.For the largest scale events and shows,the spectrum required to support audio PMSE is at or near the limit of that available in the UHF band in Europe and a number of other similar markets.For example:Sennheiser reports from Australia

229、 that large scale shows such as the musical Hamilton can routinely use over 40 wireless audio channels simultaneously and that frequency coordination at this scale will typically consume most of the 184 MHz of available UHF spectrum in Australia38.Swiss broadcaster SRF estimates a requirement of 174

230、 MHz for the most demanding events such as Eurovision and the Tour de France,though for limited periods only,and a daily requirement of up to 115 MHz for the next level of large event venues39.However,while larger scale productions require significant amounts of spectrum for audio PMSE,demand is hig

231、hly localised and predictable.PMSE demand tends not to be in rural areas,apart from a few one-off events such as Glastonbury.Hence,in rural areas,the overlap between PMSE and potential future users who might be interested in gaining access to the spectrum in the medium term,such as IMT,is likely to

232、be limited.In some urban areas,however,such as the West End of London,there will be a considerable overlap between PMSE use and potential future uses.In other urban areas,PMSE use may be periodic but predictable,hence the overlap with potential future uses may be delimited temporally,i.e.,according

233、to when audio PMSE is in use.In summary,where the overlap between PMSE and potential future demand from IMT is limited,there may be a case for opening up access to UHF spectrum(on a geographic or time-limited basis)but predicated on protecting PMSE use.This is certainly likely to be the case in rura

234、l 38 Submission from Sennheiser Australia Pty Ltd To Media Reform Green Paper,Modernising Television Reform in Australia,May 2021 39 VVA&LS telcom for the EC,“Study on the use of the sub-700 MHz band(470-694 MHz)”,2022.This is similar to the EUs estimate of a requirement of 150 MHz for the largest e

235、vents GIVE REF.FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 22 areas.A priori,there would therefore appear to be significant scope for sharing of any additional UHF spectrum between PMSE and IMT,which could provide an avenue for mobile to better address connectivi

236、ty needs in those areas which would help address the rural Digital Divide.3.3.2 Future PMSE growth PMSE demand has been steadily growing particularly for the higher tier commercial use such as festivals,theatre and live coverage of sporting events.This growth has been driven by an increasing level o

237、f microphone and IEM use across the performers or participants in order to enhance the quality and sophistication of the entertainment provided to the audience.Recent years have also seen significant developments in the nature and scale of reality TV and talent shows which are making much greater us

238、e of microphones to enhance their ability to make engaging content and improve the viewing experience.Another example of increasing use of audio PMSE demand has been the growth of recording and live streaming of theatrical productions for the home,cinemas and other venues.Moreover,at home viewing of

239、 cultural events was given a boost during the pandemic.Now,live streaming and on-demand are seen as important streams of additional revenue alongside public performances which have recommenced.As a result of growing demand,the largest scale events,which are already experiencing some spectrum constra

240、ints,would face increasing congestion in the future,assuming spectral efficiency remains the same.Some commentators predict that as much as 224 MHz may potentially be required for major events in the future,i.e.,the whole sub-700 MHz UHF band40.In addition to high tier users increasing demand for PM

241、SE,small and non-commercial user demand is also growing and professional PMSE equipment is increasingly being used,though the gap in requirements between high and low tier users remains.This trend may limit the ability of these lower tier users to use smaller blocks of spectrum,such as guard bands,t

242、hat are already unsuitable for the larger commercial users.3.3.3 Recent technological advances Significant improvements in audio PMSE spectrum efficiency have been made in the past.For example,as a result of the introduction of digital technology,equipment is now able to deliver around 2.541 to 3 ti

243、mes the number of audio channels in a fixed amount of radio spectrum whilst achieving acceptable levels of quality(though analogue PMSE does still retain some performance advantages over digital).In addition,the development of very linear power amplifiers has increased spectral efficiency of PMSE eq

244、uipment by improving its intermodulation performance.However,the amount of spectrum available for PMSE has fallen by nearly 50%due to the clearance of broadcasting from the UHF band to release the 700 and 800 MHz digital dividends.Hence,recent technological advances have only enabled audio PMSE user

245、s to compensate for the decline in available UHF spectrum and will not help meet future growth in PMSE demand or facilitate further reductions in the UHF spectrum available for PMSE.3.3.4 The potential for further technological progress Research is currently underway into several new technologies wh

246、ich could lead to further improvements in spectral efficiency for audio PMSE,though the outlook is far from certain at this stage.In particular,we focus on the following two technologies which we believe currently hold the most promise:Wireless Multichannel Audio Systems(WMAS);and 5G for PMSE.WMAS a

247、llows for easier coordination and greater allocation efficiency in using multiple devices over a relatively wide block of spectrum(6,7,8,10,20 MHz)compared to narrowband audio channels.WMAS is particularly effective for larger scale PMSE users managing large numbers of devices.It allows statistical

248、multiplexing,and it can optimise for devices with differing performance requirements e.g.,quality,latency,robustness enabling further efficiency gains.Hence,WMAS can significantly increase spectral efficiency.However,if PMSE spectrum is fragmented,so that a sufficiently wide block of contiguous spec

249、trum cannot be obtained,the benefits of WMAS will not be achieved.Views on the size of the potential efficiency gains vary,but the general consensus is that gains will be significant but not revolutionary.For example,ETSI predicted that efficiency could increase by about 50%in comparison to narrowba

250、nd 40 VVA&LS telcom for the EC as above 41 RSPG,2017 FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 23 systems42.Other commentators suggested that WMAS could lead to a rough doubling in the number of audio channels that could be supported in one TV channel bandwidth

251、.However,WMAS is still an emerging technology.It is uncertain whether it will gain the level of traction in the market necessary to generate the economies of scale needed to drive down costs,especially as it is only one of several innovations,e.g.,wireless 3D audio capture,competing for commercial a

252、doption by equipment manufacturers.If and when WMAS establishes a firm position in the market,it may still take five to ten years for WMAS-compatible equipment to diffuse through the user base.Although,if high tier users are becoming spectrum constrained,they will have an incentive to take-up WMAS e

253、quipment more quickly.Research is being carried out on the use of 5G for audio PMSE43.The key performance requirements that 5G will have to meet are the demanding levels of latency and reliability necessary for the use of audio PMSE in live and recorded performance.Latency is critical because if it

254、rises above a certain level,musicians will be unable to synchronise with other performers.Reliability is essential for live performances,because any failure,even temporary,may be noticed by the audience and detract from their enjoyment,with a knock-on effect on what audiences will be willing to pay.

255、Nokia and Sennheiser conducted a testbed for PMSE over 5G in 202144.They reported a 7ms application latency for 2-way transmission from microphone to receiver unit and back to the artists IEM.Although,the required application latency for PMSE is 4ms or less,Nokia and Sennheiser concluded that 5G hel

256、d promise for PMSE,though further improvement was necessary to prove it could meet the latency requirements.They also noted that commercialised equipment may offer superior performance to the equipment used in the testbed and this would help to bridge the gap.Nokia and Sennheiser also noted that 3GP

257、P standardised URLLC enables the reliability requirements for PMSE to be met with Release 15 providing successful packet delivery of 99.999%or higher and work was continuing in Release 16 to reach 99.9999%.In practice,a number of commercial issues would need to be resolved to enable PMSE to move to

258、5G.Significant development in commercial,off the shelf equipment would be necessary.There would need to be sufficient demand to give manufacturers confidence of the economic viability of including 3GPP Release 16 URLLC standards within their equipment.5G networks would need to deploy additional capa

259、city to accommodate PMSE traffic and meet its performance requirements.If provided over the public network,mobile operators would need to make significant investment in their networks and deploy advanced features such as network slicing.If a non-public network solution for PMSE were economically via

260、ble,dedicated spectrum in the appropriate frequency range would need to be made available.Regardless of whether audio PMSE were carried over a public or a non-public network,a clear business model would need to be established so that services are provided to users at a reasonable price(taking into a

261、ccount the costs of upgrading equipment)and network operators gain an appropriate return on their investment.3.3.5 Prospects for additional spectrum bands for PMSE An alternative to deploying new technologies to provide more capacity for PMSE would be to identify new spectrum bands.Any new spectrum

262、would have to lie in the sub-1.5GHz range in order for audio devices to function acceptably.As stated earlier,this is because many audio PMSE equipment is body worn and,as a result,radio waves interact with the human body.At frequencies above 1.5GHz,this interaction can lead to problems with the dir

263、ectivity of the signal and body absorption.International harmonisation is also an important factor in introducing new bands for audio PMSE,especially for international PMSE users.Manufacturers are less likely to supply equipment for spectrum that is only available in a few countries.Moreover,any equ

264、ipment that is produced for a limited market will be relatively expensive due to the weaker economies of scale.This phenomenon is apparent in the UK,where the UK has pioneered the 960-1164 MHz band for audio PMSE(a few other countries are considering following suit).Although there is some profession

265、al use of the band in the UK,take-up is low due,in part,to the cost of the equipment.42 ETSI TR 103 450 V1.1.1 System Reference document(SRdoc);Technical characteristics and parameters for Wireless Multichannel Audio Systems(WMAS),2017,https:/www.etsi.org/deliver/etsi_tr/103400_103499/103450/01.01.0

266、1_60/tr_103450v010101p.pdf 43 E.g.the PMSE-xG project,http:/pmse-xg.research-project.de/index.html 44 Nokia,Sennheiser white paper,January 2021,“Low Latency 5G for Professional Audio Transmission”https:/www.bell- REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 24 Furthermo

267、re,there has been opposition in CEPT to sharing between PMSE and aeronautical services in the 960-1164 MHz band.Established positions would have to be revised substantially for any progress towards wider international adoption of the band for PMSE.FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz B

268、and in the UK Copyright 2022 25 4.Main Spectrum Scenarios The backdrop to each scenario will be a certain combination of the trends and issues that we outlined in Section 3.To provide some context on how these trends inform our scenario development,we set out one potential combination of trends unde

269、r which each scenario could emerge.However,this is one of several such combinations and is only intended to be indicative.In each scenario,we then describe how the UHF band would be allocated to different services,we provide an overview of any relevant international coordination issues and describe

270、the high-level outcomes for IMT,DTT and PMSE.Next,we discuss in detail the implications for each of the three services before providing some concluding remarks.4.1 Status quo no change in allocation Our indicative set of key trends for this scenario is as follows.Mobile broadband demand continues to

271、 grow at a similar level to the previous five years,but IoT growth is slower than expected.MNO revenue growth is set back due to the uncertain economic outlook and MNOs focus turns more to cost reduction than maximising demand growth.The decline in linear TV is much slower than expected as SVoD stru

272、ggles to recapture past levels of growth also due to the uncertain economic outlook.However,the DTT platform does still evolve through investment made primarily in video coding upgrades by the owners of the DTT platform for delivery of more HDTV content.PMSE demand continues to grow moderately.In th

273、is scenario,there are no changes to how the 470-694 MHz UHF spectrum is allocated from the early 2030s.The UHF spectrum range remains allocated to broadcast services on a primary basis and land mobile allocated on a secondary basis as per the current Ofcom Frequency Allocation Table,where PMSE conti

274、nues to use interleaved DTT spectrum.The Exhibit below depicts the spectrum allocations in this range including the existing UK mobile operator allocations up to 862 MHz for reference,which is up to where broadcast originally occupied prior to the first Digital Dividend afforded by the switch-off of

275、 analogue TV in the early 2010s.Exhibit 9:No-change to spectrum allocations scenario spectrum allocation for DTT,IMT&PMSE Source:Coleago Consulting There can be several cases under this“no change to 470-694 MHz”scenario as to how DTT as the primary allocation in the 470-694 MHz band could evolve.We

276、present two possible evolutionary cases linked to how DTT might evolve.These DTT evolution cases are illustrated in the Exhibit below and described in more detail in the following paragraphs.FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 26 Exhibit 10:No-change to s

277、pectrum allocations scenario-evolution cases between DTT,IMT&PMSE Source:Coleago Consulting The“no change to 470-694 MHz”scenario for the UK may be brought about or influenced strongly by the interference concerns from high power DTT transmissions in neighbouring countries such as France or the Repu

278、blic of Ireland being co-channel with the uplink sub-band of FDD based IMT600 networks in the UK.This co-channel interference mechanism is often cited by many industry stakeholders as the principal barrier for supporting co-primary broadcast and mobile allocation of the band where mobile has an upli

279、nk channel,because coordination distances of over 200km or greater have been shown to be ideally needed45.These co-channel interference risks are examined further,along with mitigation considerations in Section 4.3.2 when the scenario where an IMT600 FDD band plan in the UK is considered.The“no chan

280、ge to 470-694 MHz”scenario for the UK may also be brought about or influenced by a lack of adoption of 3GPP specified supplemental downlink(SDL)band plans and channel arrangements by 2030.Such IMT SDL band plans have been proposed to allow a more harmonious co-primary broadcast and mobile co-existen

281、ce in the UHF band.IMT SDL for the UHF band proposes 8 MHz channel sizes for LTE&5G in order to fit into the existing UHF channel sizes.The introduction of IMT SDL is examined in the next scenario in Section 4.2.3.4.1.1 IMT under“no change”all cases In this“no change to 470-694 MHz”scenario,there wo

282、uld be no additional low-band spectrum resources available for the mobile operators to help meet their growing traffic needs,regardless of how DTT evolves and hence applies to all cases under this scenario.Since the first Digital Dividend,over the last decade,mobile operators have deployed 4G servic

283、es which includes 800 MHz band.According to Ofcoms Connected Nations 2021 report46,over 96%of premises in rural areas across the UK now have access to 4G services indoors.During the rest of this decade we can expect to see operators deploy 5G services,and more 4G capacity using 700 MHz and using re-

284、farmed 900 MHz spectrum as 3G and eventually 2G services are shut down in the 900 MHz band.Assuming the continued growth in traffic demand,and no additional low-band IMT spectrum the mobile industry may need to explore more ways of increasing spectral efficiencies from their existing low-band spectr

285、um for the 2030s.One area for exploration is whether there could be spectral efficiency gains achieved through defragmenting and repacking operator spectrum allocations across the 700,800 and 900 MHz bands.45 https:/www.itu.int/pub/R-REP-BT.2337 46 https:/www.ofcom.org.uk/research-and-data/multi-sec

286、tor-research/infrastructure-research/connected-nations-2021/interactive-report FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 27 Exhibit 11:No-change to spectrum allocations scenario-evolution for IMT Source:ColeagoConsulting The Exhibit below illustrates the curren

287、t low-band spectrum allocations in the 694-960 MHz range in the UK for the UK MNOs.These allocations are the result of spectrum auctions at 800 MHz and at 700 MHz,plus some recent rationalisation in the 900 MHz band which Telefnica O2 and Vodafone have always occupied.An analysis of these operator s

288、pectrum allocations does indicate a couple of inherent spectral inefficiencies brought about by the fragmented allocations.Exhibit 12:MNO spectrum allocation across 700,800,and 900 MHz bands Source:Coleago Consulting All operators have allocations which are across at least two bands.This is not seen

289、 as a network capacity inefficiency as such since the same total number of LTE or 5G resource blocks are available.The same inherent capacity is provided by two 5 MHz channels as one 10 MHz channel.A first perceived inefficiency in using allocations from different spectrum bands is having to rely on

290、 carrier aggregation device support to exploit and experience higher throughput rates.Consider the scenario where devices are at the cell edges and only have access to low-band spectrum.There are very few IMT devices supporting carrier aggregation combinations across these 700,800,and 900 MHz bands

291、at present,as most carrier aggregation support is focused on low-band plus mid-band combinations for increasing throughputs.There are also associated additional signalling overheads in managing carrier aggregation normally manifesting as some latency increases.However,if by the early 2030s,there mig

292、ht be a large and growing population of devices supporting carrier aggregation across these bands,there would be a diminishing impact in throughput FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 28 experiences at the cell edges in having fragmented versus non-fragme

293、nted spectrum allocations.This however is an area we recommend for proposed further investigation.A second spectral inefficiency is related to some of the specific operator band combinations leading to some Passive Intermodulation(PIM)interference risks.It is beyond the scope of this study to detail

294、 these,but to avoid PIM interference,it is common to use two separate RF chains and antenna arrays to host the fragmented spectrum.This means there would be less opportunity to take advantage of higher order MIMO configurations,such as 4 x 2 MIMO on downlink,in one or more bands at a future date,sin

295、ce additional antenna arrays needed to support higher order MIMO are being used for PIM interference avoidance.4 x 4 MIMO at low-band for handheld devices is generally not possible due to size limitations of handheld devices not being able to accommodate four antennas.However,larger devices and conn

296、ected vehicles could take advantage of 4 x 4 MIMO,and multiple handheld devices may also be scheduled using 4 x 4 multi-user MIMO(MU-MIMO)schemes for capacity enhancements too.A full discussion of MIMO schemes however is beyond the scope of this project.Band defragmentation in principle may solve th

297、ese inefficiencies,but because 700 MHz(Band 28)is a more recent band globally,there are generally fewer devices which support 700 MHz than 800 MHz band currently.The August 2022 GSA LTE Ecosystem report indicates that there are just over half as many devices supporting 700 MHz than for 800 MHz as of

298、 August 202247.This implies that spectrum at 800 MHz,at this time at least,may be seen as being more valuable to an operator than 700 MHz band,simply because there will be more subscribers able to access 800 MHz than 700 MHz.700 MHz spectrum however continues to be allocated,and 700 MHz networks con

299、tinues to be deployed around the world,most notably Jio in India recently securing 700 MHz48,and China Broadcast Networks announcing their deployment at 700 MHz49.In several years time(perhaps around 2030)we could expect similar levels of LTE and 5G device support across all three spectrum bands at

300、700,800 and 900 MHz.At such a time,the value of 700 MHz and 800 MHz spectrum to each operator may become more blurred.Likewise,the value of 900 MHz spectrum to Telefnica and Vodafone may be seen as being similar to 700 or 800 MHz.Therefore,from 2030 there may be more desire and appetite for operator

301、s to engage in a spectrum defragmentation process across the 700,800 and 900 MHz bands.It does not make sense for defragmentation now.There are also dozens of potential defragmentation outcomes,and these will also be influenced by operator sharing agreements such as those in place with Vodafone and

302、Telefonica,and any future operator consolidation.The Exhibit below depicts an example outcome of a future low-band spectrum defragmentation process perhaps achieved via spectrum trading mechanisms.In this example,all operators achieve more contiguous spectrum in a single band(except for Telefnica in

303、 the example)thereby reducing reliance on carrier aggregation and maximising cell edge throughput experiences when Low-Band spectrum might only be available(e.g.,at the cell edges).Exhibit 13:Example defragmented MNO spectrum allocation across 700,800,and 900 MHz bands Source:Coleago Consulting The

304、above spectrum configuration is designed to also minimise PIM interference,such that the need for maintaining separate RF/Antenna chains is avoided,and thus maximise the opportunity for operators to use higher order MIMO at 47 LTE Ecosystem August 2022:Quarterly update,GSA 48 https:/ 49 https:/ FINA

305、L REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 29 low-band through in using 4T4R radio configurations to deliver downlink 4 x 2(or even 4 x 4 MIMO to devices capable of supporting 4x terminal antennas).We estimate that the defragmentation of spectrum in this manner coul

306、d provide between 20-40%capacity gains50.There could also be a useful increase in downlink coverage owing to precoder based beamforming gains in using a dual cross-polar antenna arrays,which would be valuable for further enhancing rural area coverage and for increasing in-building penetration.Such d

307、efragmentation may however benefit one operator more than another,which we would expect to be reflected in any spectrum trading prices,though it may also create competitive imbalances.Additionally,operators may have already factored such inefficiency and competitive aspects into their network roadma

308、ps.As such there is also the real possibility that spectrum does not get defragmented due to competitive tension and ultimately remains with some inefficiencies.Studies on re-farming the entire 694-960 MHz band to arrive at completely new band plans have been proposed and studied51.These new band pl

309、ans essentially explore the capacity gains if the current 700,800 and 900 MHz band plans could be consolidated,removing guard-bands and reducing duplex gaps,and even includes a conversion of the whole band to TDD.The practical challenge is how such new bands could ever be introduced,as it would requ

310、ire global efforts,and a lengthy transitional period which may have to endure lower spectral efficiencies in the band before reaping the greater spectral efficiencies of any new band plan across 694-960 MHz.As such,we do not consider these as practical options for a 2030 timeframe at least.4.1.2 No

311、change Case 1:DTT grows Exhibit 14:No-change to spectrum allocations scenario-evolution for DTT case 1 Source:Coleago Consulting 50 https:/www.5gamericas.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/2018_5G_Americas_Rysavy_LTE_to_5G-_The_Global_Impact_of_Wireless_Innovation_final.pdf 51 The defragmentation divide

312、nd,A more efficient use of the UHF band White paper on behalf of Digital UK,Nov 2017 FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 30 4.1.3 DTT under no change case 1:DTT grows As stated earlier there are several cases as to how DTT could evolve from todays network

313、 until the early 2030s.We examine two possible cases.The first case examined is where there is an increase in the HDTV payload of DTT programmes brought about by some investments in the DTT platform.All SDTV programmes on the five DVB-T multiplexes are currently encoded using MPEG2 video coding.The

314、UK is one of the few countries in Europe to continue to use MPEG2 coding for SDTV content at a national level.For what should be a modest investment into the DTT network(but subject to further study)all current SDTV content carried on the five DVB-T multiplexes could be encoded using H.264 or Advanc

315、ed Video Coding(AVC)with an MPEG4 transport.Assuming that almost all TV receivers are also AVC/H.264 MPEG4 compatible by early 2030s virtually all TV households should be able to take advantage of AVC/H.264 MPEG4 video coding.Also,it is fully expected that all AVC/H.264 MPEG4 patent licencing will h

316、ave expired after 2030,meaning that any ongoing costs for encoding content for delivery via the DTT network should be minimised.AVC/H.264 MPEG4 coding allows approximately a 50%decrease in bit rate to support the same picture quality as MPEG2 coding.Such a move to AVC/H.264 MPEG4 coding should comfo

317、rtably allow a meaningful delivery of many more HDTV services.There are other factors at play which may cause an increase of the opportunity to supply HDTV content.The first factor is associated with TV programme and content makers looking to consolidate programmes delivered by DTT or move certain c

318、ontent away from DTT to online all together as part of cost savings or wider policy objectives,such as the recent decision by the BBC to merge news channels and move BBC Four,CBBC and Radio 4 Extra services away from DTT before 203052.This frees up some DTT capacity for other TV channels to then bec

319、ome HDTV.Another factor is by the early 2030s,there would not be an expectation or need to provide both simultaneous SDTV and HDTV content of PSB programmes,due to the almost universal proportion of TV sets capable of supporting H.264/MPEG4 and HDTV by that time,and thus allows DTT capacity to be re

320、leased for enabling other HDTV for other programmes.However,the key enabling factor for more HDTV content would be the investment into the DTT platform for supporting at least H.264/MPEG 4 video coding and possibly upgrading to more DVB-T2 multiplexes.A study carried out by Mediatique in relation to

321、 an Ofcom consultation predicted that by 2030 there would be fewer than 0.4m households relying solely on DVB-T53 This graph serves as a proxy for HDTV penetration since all DVB-T2 receivers support H.264/MPEG 4.Exhibit 15:Projected%households penetration of TV sets by DVB-T(T1)&DVB-T2(T2)technology

322、 in the UK Source:Mediatique 52 https:/ 53 https:/www.ofcom.org.uk/data/assets/pdf_file/0024/40569/mediatique.pdf FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 31 Due to these factors,it may be conceivable by the early 2030s the DTT network could deliver much more

323、HDTV programme content using its six multiplexes.The concept of such a DTT upgrade is illustrated below to provide more HD content,maintaining some SD content,along with some policy driven TV channel departures,and removal of dual SD/HD content delivery by the early 2030s.In the illustration below w

324、e have assumed that video coding is upgraded only,but equally multiplexes can also be upgraded to DVB-T2 to support more capacity.The exact upgrade route will depend upon the amount of HDTV content envisaged,and the business case for such investments.Exhibit 16:No change to spectrum allocations scen

325、ario example of the evolution for DTT m-case 1 Source:Coleago Consulting 4.1.4 PMSE under no change case 1:DTT grows In the event DTT HDTV content increases via investment into the DTT network,and all six multiplexes are maintained under this“no change to 470-694 MHz”scenario,there would be correspo

326、ndingly no more or no less interleaved spectrum available for PMSE use.Empirical evidence reveals there are cases that professional audio PMSE spectrum demand is slowly increasing largely driven by increasingly large and more frequent media and arts events(such as Glastonbury,Eurovision,etc.).Such i

327、ncreases in PMSE peak demand during the 2030s,may be addressed through emerging PMSE technologies such as WMAS.If,however,WMAS is not adopted at meaningful levels to absorb such peaks in professional PMSE,then the PMSE community may need additional PMSE spectrum bands,and/or make more use of the exi

328、sting 960-1164 MHz aeronautical band.FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the 470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 32 4.1.5 DTT under no change case 2:DTT declines Exhibit 17:No change to spectrum allocations scenario-evolution for DTT case 2 Source:Coleago Consulting In this case there is networ

329、k investment made into upgrading the network with H.264/MPEG4 video coding as per the previous case to offer more HDTV content,but there are more departures than expected and muted demand for such HDTV services.This decline would include the already planned departures of some TV programmes and conso

330、lidation of parallel HD/SD content delivery as described for the previous case.Such a move to H.264 MPEG4 coding coupled with a lack of HDTV demand may allow for a consolidation from todays five DVB-T multiplexes to three or four DVB-T multiplexes to at least continue to support todays TV programme

331、payload.The concept of consolidation through some decline and AVC/H.264 MPEG4 upgrading is illustrated in the Exhibit below.The precise ownership or part ownership of the consolidated multiplexes would be subject to further study and assessment for such a case.FINAL REPORT Future Utilisation of the

332、470-694 MHz Band in the UK Copyright 2022 33 Exhibit 18:No change to spectrum allocations scenario example of the evolution for DTT in case 2 Source:ColeagoConsulting 4.1.6 PMSE under no change case 2:DTT declines In the event DTT supply is maintained under a“no change to 470-694 MHz”scenario,by add

333、itionally using AVC/H.264 MPEG4 coding upgrades in the DTT network by 2030,then there would be on average 16 MHz more interleaved spectrum available for PMSE use.The DTT multiplexes have reduced,from todays six multiplexes to four multiplexes by the early 2030s,releasing this spectrum dividend for PMSE.In many respects,this spectrum dividend,through the use more up to date video coding for the DTT