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1、Will they choose the right road? leaders prepare to seize big opportunities23rd Annual Global Automotive Executive SurveyForewordThe 23rd edition of the KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey comes at a momentous time for the industry.Every facet of automotive from product development,to manufactur

2、ing,to supply chains and the customer experience is undergoing profound changes,driven by the powerful convergence of the automotive and technology sectors.A year ago,automotive executives sensed a change was coming and the future was theirs to seize.In the latest survey,translated into 20 languages

3、,more than 900 executives in 30 countries remain optimistic,but the mood is tempered by realism.The exciting future is no longer theoreticalmore than half a trillion dollars have been committed to developing a dazzling array of new vehicles built in advanced manufacturing facilities.They are investi

4、ng in electric-battery plants,semiconductors,autonomous systems,software,and electronics.(Readers can go to our website to interact with the data and view graphical results by country,company type,and job title.)To deliver on the promise of those billions of investments,car companies will take many

5、roads to their destination.Some roads will lead to success,others could end in abject failure.To enable executives to navigate the future,the survey findings help frame some strategic questions:Should we go it alone,form alliances,or do joint ventures?With whom and why?How should we allocate capital

6、 among our different powertrain ecosystems?What role will contract manufacturing play in the future of the industry?What does a reimagined customer experience look like?How important should autonomous systems be to our strategy?These and other questions are growing more urgent by the day,as competit

7、ion intensifies.For some,the answer is the status quo.For others,it is diversification and being a fast follower.For still others,the path is to be bold and go all-in with new operating models.Strategic flexibility has never been more important.So yes,some roads will lead to success and others will

8、end in failure.For the executives who responded to our survey,the future is in their hands.Gary Silberg Global Head of Automotive KPMG International2 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.

9、Main findings The global outlook Auto executives are more optimistic than in 2021 about the prospects for long-term,profitable growth.Eighty-three percent are confident of higher profits over the next five years,compared with 53 percent in 2021.They have become more cautious about near-term results,

10、however,given the headwinds facing the global economy:76 percent are concerned that inflation and high interest rates will adversely affect their business in 2023.Future of powertrains Expectations of global electric vehicle(EV)sales in 2030 are becoming more realistic.In 2021,executives predicted t

11、hat EVs would capture between 20 percent and 70 percent of the market by 2030.Now they are taking a more cautious view of the challenges of shifting to battery power,with forecasts varying from 10 percent to around 40 percent of sales by 2030.Specifically,executives have greatly tempered their expec

12、tations about EV sales growth in India(poor infrastructure),Brazil(biofuels as an alternative)and Japan(a focus on hybrid and energy sources other than batteries).There is,though,more confidence that EVs will achieve cost parity with internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicles without government help.Ei

13、ghty-two percent believe that in the next 10 years EVs can be adopted widely without subsidies.And 21 percent,three times the proportion in 2021,do not think governments should provide any direct consumer subsidies for EVs.Digital consumers With the proliferation of new models,entrants,and technolog

14、ies,executives believe consumer buying decisions in the next five years will focus on driving performance and brand image.Data privacy and security are also key factors in purchase decisions.Car customers are expected to shop increasingly online,opening opportunities for manufacturers to sell direct

15、ly to consumers,as well as online through dealerships.Traditional e-commerce players will also compete for car purchasers.New technologies and new entrants Many executives think Apple will enter the car market and become a leader in EVs by 2030,moving to fourth place in the survey from ninth in 2021

16、.Tesla is expected to remain the market leader in EVs.Whichever company becomes the leader,nine in 10 executives say start-ups will have a sizeable effect on the auto industry.More than one in five say they are extremely likely to sell non-strategic parts of their businesses,given the massive invest

17、ments required to compete.Contract manufacturing will become even more strategic going forward.Vulnerable supply chains Executives remain very concerned about supplies of commodities and components,especially semiconductors,as well as items such as electrical steel and lightweight materials that are

18、 crucial to increase fuel efficiency and extend battery range.In response to the vulnerability of supplies,car makers are focusing on near-shoring and on-shoring,in an effort to reduce their reliance on only one or two countries.Auto executives are very optimistic about the prospects for after-sale

19、revenues.Sixty-two percent are very confident that consumers will be willing to pay monthly subscription fees for software services such as EV charging,car-maintenance analytics,advanced driver assistance,and other over-the-air updates.Executives think automakers continue to see the insurance market

20、 as a key growth opportunity,but they have shifted focus from competing against insurers to partnering with them or selling them data.3 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.The global out

21、lookAuto executives are very optimistic that the billions spent on investments in new factories and powertrains are going to yield big dividends.Eighty-three percent are confident that the industry will achieve more profitable growth over the next five years versus today.In 2021,only 53 percent were

22、 as confident.Now car companies have to deliver on the promise,and executives know they will face multiple challenges.Obstacles include skills shortages,uncertain supplies of materials and components,a troubled geopolitical picture,and tough macroeconomic conditions.Seventy-six percent or respondent

23、s are concerned that inflation and high interest rates will adversely affect their business in 2023,compared with only 14 percent who are not.There are significant differences in expectations.In the near term,net sentiment(those concerned/optimistic minus those who arent)varies from 18 percent at on

24、e extreme to 93 percent at the other.Executives in China are the least concerned,while the rest of Asia and North America are more concerned,by a large margin.Interact with the dataTo see how expectations differ from one market to the next:Explore nowIf the workforce in the tech industry continues t

25、o shrink,this is a golden opportunity for auto-makers to acquire skills in crucial areas,such as development of future connectivity,including transport data,end-to-end user experience and secure mobile communications.”James Walker,Automotive Principal,KPMG in the US4 2022 Copyright owned by one or m

26、ore of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.Future of powertrainsIn just one year,the outlook has changed appreciably.The survey in 2021 showed that auto executives were very optimistic about the prospects for global EV sales.

27、They estimated that EVs could capture as much as 70 percent of the market share by 2030.Since then,the top estimates have fallen to around 40 percent,which still indicates confidence.The range of forecasts has narrowed,too.The decline in the estimate of EV penetration was particularly noticeable in

28、India,Brazil,and Japan.Indias infrastructure challenges mean that EV demand is likely to be much lower for cars than for two-and three-wheeled vehicles,which are not part of the survey.Brazil may focus less on electrification and more on alternative fuel,such as ethanol.And Japans leading car manufa

29、cturers are likely to continue emphasizing hybrid vehicles and other potential energy sources such as hydrogen.The closer the expert is to the customer,the lower the EV share expectations seem to be.For example,US executives say car dealers expect EVs to capture 22 percent of the market by 2030,eigh

30、t percentage points less than OEMs predict.One reason for the overall reassessment is that automakers are confronting the sheer complexity of shifting the industry from internal combustion engines to batteries.It will affect every facet of the value chain,not just the sourcing of raw materials.It wi

31、ll change every step of the product lifecycle:the way the cars are made,how they are distributed,fueled(recharged),and serviced.By 2030,what percentage of new vehicles sales do you believe will be battery-powered(excluding hybrids)within each market?100806040200%of ChargingDistribution by MarketBraz

32、ilChinaIndiaJapanU.S.WesternEuropeDistribution of votesMedian valueMean value100806040200%of ChargingDistribution by MarketBrazilChinaEuropeIndiaJapanU.S.Distribution of votesMedian valueMean value20212022Source:KPMG International The automotive industry faces challenges with high energy prices alon

33、gside a potential economic slowdown.There will be pressure to postpone investments that would reduce carbon footprint,but automakers need to stay focused on the importance of a long-term carbon-free future and make strategic investments in these new technologies.”Laurent Des Places,Partner,Head of A

34、utomotive,KPMG in France5 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.Underlying these EV sales expectations are some key predictions based on a growing confidence among manufacturers in the eco

35、nomics of EV car production.This can be attributed in part to the billions of dollars that have been invested in new plants and R&D.As EV output expands,costs are expected to fall due to economies of scale.Seventy percent of respondents expect that EVs will reach cost parity with ICE vehicles by 203

36、0 without subsidies.More than 80 percent of executives surveyed believe that EVs will achieve widespread adoption without government subsidies in the next 10 years.And the proportion in 2021 or respondents who do not agree that governments should provide direct consumer subsidies for EVs was 21 perc

37、ent,three times the share in 2021.Such subsidies often distort markets and tend to complicate international trade.Some 78 percent say subsidies should be phased out at car prices ranging from$30,000-plus to$70,000-plus.When do you believe battery electric vehicles will reach cost/affordability parit

38、y with ICE without any subsidies?20212022Dont knowThey already haveBy 2025By 2030By 2035After 2035Never0%2%9%9%27%37%37%20%6%7%1%0%21%24%Do you believe battery-electric vehicles can achieve widespread adoption in the next 10 years without government intervention?20212022Yes77%82%21%15%2%3%NoDontknow

39、Some governments are providing direct consumer subsidies for battery-electric vehicles.Do you agree with this policy?91%75%20212022Yes21%7%2%4%NoDontknowSource:KPMG International With automakers placing huge bets on the future of EVs,they have to make them pay off.With this transformation,they must

40、transition their workforce skills to align with the new direction and collaborate closely with partners to maximize the benefits for their ecosystem.”Andreas Ries,Automotive Partner,KPMG in Germany 6 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities p

41、rovide no services to clients.All rights reserved.20212022No,all battery electric vehicles should be subsidized35%30%31%8%1%1%17%33%23%21%Yes,subsidies shouldphased out above$70,000Yes,subsidies shouldphased out above$50,000Yes,subsidies shouldphased out above$30,000Dont knowIf yes,should the subsid

42、ies be phased out for vehicles above a certain vehicle price?Perceptions of the infrastructure challenge are also shifting,as more government money is allocated for charging stations.While executives still think most charging will take place at consumer homes,a rising proportion of executives say ow

43、ners will park at public charging stations,at work,or on the street.There is more clarity about what the charging technology can do.More executives in 2022 expected consumers to wait longer for an 80 percent recharge than in 2021.Also,26 percent say consumers would be willing to wait 45 minutes,eigh

44、t percentage points more than in 2021.The proportion who believe consumers will only accept a 20-minute wait fell from 27 percent to 17 percent.30%23%22%18%18%20%15%17%15%16%6%0%Dont knowSingle familyhome/garagePublic or privatecharging stationsApartment garageor parking lotAt workOn the streetIn yo

45、ur home country,where will owners charge their battery-electric vehicles?Source:KPMG International While traveling and running low on battery charge,how long will the typical consumer be willing to wait for an 80 percent or greater charge?9%27%41%43%18%26%6%8%17%6%10 minutes20 minutes30 minutes45 mi

46、nutes60 minutesTotal does not add to 100%due to rounding202120227 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.Auto executives still expect Tesla will be the market leader in battery-powered vehi

47、cles in 2030,the same as in 2021,but by a much narrower margin.One interesting change:Apple is now in fourth place,having risen from ninth position in 2021,even though it has not yet produced or even announced a single car.BYD of China looks to be another strong contender.Auto executives will be wat

48、ching closely for new entrants,because the field remains wide open.Looking out to 2030,which of the following companies do you think will be the market leaders in electric vehicles?418238165155140134124121914644Ranking:1 2TeslaBMWAppleFordHondaBYDHyundai-KiaMercedes-BenzToyotaVWGroupFisker0100200300

49、400500223TeslaAudiBMWApple FordHonda BYD Hyundai-KiaMercedes-BenzToyota Baidu Fisker2061961331281061017878554234Ranking:1 205010015020025020212022Source:KPMG International 8 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clie

50、nts.All rights reserved.Digital consumersCar buyers have an unprecedented array of choices for EVs.Auto makers have announced investments of more than$500 billion in EV programs and 160 new EV models are slated for the global market in the next four years.More than 50 new manufacturers are jostling

51、for market share.Company names like Rivian,Lucid,BYD,Xpeng,Nio,Fisker,and Vinfast have emerged in only the past few years.The explosion of new auto manufacturers is driving significant changes in consumer car tastes,especially in terms of performance and branding.When executives are asked which fact

52、or is most important in the next five years when consumers buy a car,80 percent,the highest number,focus on driving performance,a nine-percentage-point increase over the previous year.Given the range of options,consumers see automotive performance as a more critical differentiator than before,when p

53、erformance was generally perceived as similar.Branding is also a key differentiator.The survey shows a six-point increase in the importance of brand and image.With prices rising sharply,car buyers are raising their expectations.Also,with so many new models to choose from,branding becomes more import

54、ant.In the field of EVs,the new brands may possibly have a“cool”cachet that consumers gravitate towards,and this is a critical trend to watch.Brand&image9%6%6%7%23%40%28%24%41%28%20%37%25%45%19%36%5%23%38%33%8%5%10%24%37%20%44%25%40%26%30%27%Data privacy&securityDriving performanceInfotainment/perso

55、nalconnectivity featuresSeamless&hassle-freeexperienceSelf-driving cars/active driverassistance systemsVehicle maintenanceconnectivity featuresZero emission/sustainableelectric mobility2%1%1%1%1%2%1%1%1%2%2%2%1%Not at all importantSlightly importantModerately importantVery importantExtremely importa

56、nt6%24%38%32%5%20%38%36%4%7%16%43%37%22%39%30%8%20%46%24%8%24%39%27%8%24%33%34%7%23%39%31%0%0%0%Total does not add to 100%due to roundingHow important do you think the following features will be for consumers when deciding to purchase a car in the next 5 years?20212022Source:KPMG International 9 202

57、2 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.Performance and image are not the only ways in which automakers expect to separate themselves from the pack.They also offer a wide range of software opti

58、ons that can create a different driving experience.Digitization will extend well beyond the point of sale to the entire functional and experiential life of the car,executives believe.Sixty-two percent say they are very confident that consumers will be willing to pay monthly subscription fees for suc

59、h things as software services and advanced driver assistance systems(ADAS).This revenue model is widely familiar to consumers who buy personal computers and then pay subscriptions for their software or those who buy monthly streaming entertainment services.If this prediction proves correct,such ongo

60、ing revenue streams are likely to help fatten automaker profit margins considerably.But given the attractive profits from subscriptions,car dealers are likely to want a share of the revenue,just as they will aim to increase their online car sales.20212022YesNoDont know78%78%18%17%3%5%Total does not

61、add to 100%due to rounding19%Extremelyconfident 43%Very confident22%Moderatelyconfident13%Slightly confident3%Not at allconfidentMany automakers are contemplating selling additional features and services as a monthly subscription(software services,maintenance,charging,advanced driver assistance syst

62、ems,etc.)How confident are you that consumers would be willing to pay monthly subscription fees for this?By 2030,do you believe the majority of new vehicle purchases will be completed online?(Excluding test drive)Executives expect consumers to swing decisively to online:78 percent predict that most

63、vehicle purchases will be completed digitally by 2030.Within the same timeframe,auto executives expect 34 percent of new cars will be sold directly to consumers by car manufacturers and the same proportion by dealers.In addition,traditional e-commerce platforms will be key players,along with new com

64、panies that specialize in online car sales.Source:KPMG International 10 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.Do you think automakers will successfully participate in the insurance market?

65、If so,how?20212022Yes,by partnering with existing insurance companies players36%46%7%6%2%2%1%14%43%44%Yes,by selling driverand vehicle data toinsurance companiesYes,by competingdirectly with existinginsurance companiesNoOther/Dont knowTotal does not add to 100%due to roundingGiven the amount of data

66、 that will be generated by each car and what it can tell about the driver,it is logical to expect automakers to want to participate in the market for car insurance.Executives think automakers will join forces with insurers,rather than competing against them.Only 7 percent predict that auto companies

67、 will compete directly with insurers,half the level of the previous year.Nearly half(46 percent)expect them to partner with insurance companies and 44 percent expect automakers to sell car and driver data to the insurers.Directly entering the car insurance market appears to be a road that few automa

68、kers will follow.Source:KPMG International Unfortunately,it would only take one or two highly publicized incidents of cyber breaches for car companies to lose their customers trust.To prevent this from happening,the industry needs to make a concerted effort to mitigate and prepare for possible data

69、attacks.”Vinodkumar Ramachandran,Partner,Head of Automotive,KPMG in IndiaThe market for data knows few bounds;it will be hard for auto manufacturers and dealers to wall off the automobile data market from insurers and technology companies.The rising connectivity of cars will create a rapidly growing

70、 market for the data;whichever segment manages the data is likely to win big.”Richard Peberdy,Partner,Head of Automotive,KPMG in the UK11 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.The growing

71、connectivity of cars raises cybersecurity risks that car companies have only recently begun to address.However,executives recognize its significance:75 percent say it will be a very important factor in purchase decisions in the next five years.Despite the fact that car makers have little track recor

72、d in managing digital risks,40 percent of executives say that consumers would trust automakers most to safeguard the data,twice as many as car dealers.In fact,80 percent of respondents say car manufacturers have adequate cyber security and data-privacy protection.These high expectations place the on

73、us on the OEMs to safeguard the trust consumers may have in them;if they fail and hackers are able to exploit weaknesses in the system,that trust may evaporate very quickly.Do you believe automakers have adequate cyber security and customer data privacy protections in place?Who do you think a consum

74、er would trust to safeguard the data generated by the vehicle?YesNoDont know81%80%14%16%5%4%2021202220212022OEM/vehicle manufacturerRetailer/car dealerSupplierGovernmentMobility solutions providersNo one except herself/himselfInformation,communication,and technology companies 42%40%19%14%8%5%6%5%4%4

75、%9%11%13%19%Total does not add to 100%due to roundingSource:KPMG International 12 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.Vulnerable supply chainsThe continuity of supplies of components and

76、 raw materials remains a source of high anxiety for executives.About half or more of respondents are very or extremely concerned about supplies of all eight commodities or components listed in the survey.Despite big,new investments in semiconductor manufacturing plants,procurement continues to be a

77、near-term worry.Two other categories should be noted.More than half of executives are very concerned about the supply of specialty metals such as electrical steel,a key component for EVs.A slightly higher number worry about lightweight materials,which are increasingly essential as heavy batteries ad

78、d greatly to the weight.In response to such problems,automakers and their suppliers are making significant changes to their supply chain strategies.There is an increase over 2021 in the number of executives who say that near-shoring and re-shoring are very important,as well as the direct sourcing of

79、 raw materials and investments in suppliers.In the US,more than$40 billion has been invested in 15 factories to make car batteries.Local sourcing of raw materials,especially for battery components,is a high priority.Right now,much of the mining and processing is done in Asia and in China in particul

80、ar.The number of new lithium,cobalt,and nickel mines and refineries that will be needed runs into the hundreds and on-shoring will be complex.Many of these must be located in the US and Europe.Expect supply constraints and commodity-price swings to continue.How concerned are you about continuity of

81、supply for the following commodities/components?Lithium and otherbattery componentsRare earth elementsSemiconductorsSteel,aluminumcopper,oil,etc.Oil and gas andother fossil fuelsOther electricpowertrain componentsSpecialty light weight materials(e.g.,titanium,magnesium)Specialty metals(e.g.,high-str

82、ength and electrical steels)5%14%22%35%25%7%14%12%41%26%4%13%23%29%30%6%12%20%36%26%5%13%13%38%30%5%14%25%27%30%4%13%21%33%29%7%13%22%34%24%5%13%21%36%24%7%13%16%33%31%5%13%21%36%25%5%14%20%35%26%Not at all concernedSlightly importantModerately concernedVery concernedExtremely concernedTotal does no

83、t add to 100%due to rounding20212022Source:KPMG International Securing supplies of key raw materials and components will remain a consistent concern going forward.For various OEMs,the answer will be taking stakes in sector-specific companies that produce strategic ingredients.For others,it will incl

84、ude global alliances and partnerships at integral points along the supply chain.”Goran Mazar,Partner,Head of Automotive and ESG,KPMG EMA and in Germany13 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reser

85、ved.How concerned are you that the recent volatility in commodity prices will adversely impact your business in the next 12 months?How concerned are you that labor shortages or wage increases will adversely impact your business in the next 12 months?How important are each of the following to your su

86、pply chain strategy?39%Extremelyconcerned21%VeryconcernedModeratelyconcernedSlightlyconcernedNot at allconcerned11%19%35%31%26%19%13%3%3%30%ExtremelyconcernedVeryconcernedModeratelyconcernedSlightlyconcernedNot at allconcerned23%20%32%24%30%16%17%5%4%Direct sourcing ofraw materialsHolding more inven

87、tory/safety stockInternalizing more productionMaking direct investmentsin suppliers/JVsRe-shoring/near-shoringExiting end markets/segmentsFinancial hedgingRe-shoring or dual-sourcing3%11%19%43%25%1%9%25%37%27%2%9%25%39%26%1%7%23%42%27%2%10%22%37%29%2%7%19%49%23%1%7%28%34%30%1%6%30%36%27%2%7%32%37%23

88、%2%7%24%41%26%3%9%23%42%24%1%6%26%44%24%1%8%26%39%26%Not at all concernedSlightly importantModerately concernedVery concernedExtremely concernedTotal does not add to 100%due to rounding20212022Source:KPMG International Recent years have highlighted supply chain vulnerabilities.To gain more control a

89、nd mitigate risk,automakers are using technology to dig deeper into supply chains.They are also forming alliances,joint ventures and taking equity stakes in key suppliers with the goal of efficiency,continuity,and flexibility.”Seung-Hoon Wi,Partner,Head of Automotive,KPMG in South Korea20212022Total

90、 does not add to 100%due to rounding14 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.There is another important reason why sourcing is becoming more difficult:tariffs,trade rules and regulations a

91、re more costly and complex than before.The European Union has banned the sale of new gasoline and diesel cars by 2035 and has proposed increases in carbon-dioxide reductions targets for new cars and vans.1 In China,the government has set a goal that EVs will comprise 40 percent of vehicle sales by 2

92、030 and insists on interoperability for charging systems and infrastructure.2 The recently enacted Inflation Reduction Act provides some subsidies for the US EV industry,with specific rules for battery manufacturing,mining,and processing.3 Global car makers will need to navigate these rules very car

93、efully.Do you believe the cost and complexity of tariffs,trade rules,and regulations will increase or decrease in the next five years?2021202245%45%23%13%10%4%2%26%12%20%Significantly increaseSomewhat increaseRemain about the sameSomewhat decreaseSignificantly decrease1 Source:“EU ban on the sale of

94、 new petrol and diesel cars from 2035 explained,”European Parliament News,November 3,20222 Source:“China is racing to electrify its future,”Wired,June 29,20223 Source:“Fact Sheet:Biden-Harris Administration Driving U.S.Battery Manufacturing and Good-Paying Jobs,”The White House,October 19,2022Source

95、:KPMG International 15 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.New technologies and new entrantsCar makers remain very confident in their ability to implement Industry 4.0 technologies,such

96、as machine learning,advanced robotics,and 3D printing.Most auto firms have gone through several stages of transformation and are learning the lessons from each iteration.Keeping up with,or ahead of,changes in manufacturing technology,and to do so at scale,will be a critical cost differentiator.How p

97、repared is your company for Industry 4.0 technologies(e.g.machine learning,advanced robotics,3D printing)?43%20212022Extremelyprepared21%VerypreparedModeratelypreparedSlightlypreparedNot prepared21%20%38%27%24%12%10%2%2%Total does not add to 100%due to roundingInvestments in new powertrain technolog

98、ies continue to be vital,but executives are also emphasizing advanced computing to enable the cars electronic systems.They are focusing on technologies to reduce the vehicles weight and improve gasoline efficiency and battery range.Automakers will need to make better use of technology such as AI,mac

99、hine e-learning alongside data analytics to gain profound insights into the working of their supply chain.These efforts will help them build more resilient ecosystems.”Fabrizio Ricci,Partner,Head of Automotive KPMG in ItalyIf you were given approval to double your existing R&D investment,how would y

100、ou allocate the additional funding among the following technologies?2021202223%18%16%13%16%17%0%8%20%18%Advanced ADAS/autonomousvehicle hardware and softwareConnected vehicle technologiesOther advanced computing(e.g.,computer chip,quantum computing)Vehicle light weightingOther areasSource:KPMG Inter

101、national 16 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.One of the most notable shifts in sentiment between 2021 and 2022 involves portfolio-shaping plans to sharpen their focus.Almost twice as

102、many respondents as in 2021 say they are extremely likely to divest nonstrategic parts of the business in the next several years.More than one in five executives say they are extremely likely to make such sales,given the massive investments required to compete.Source:KPMG International As automotive

103、 companies change their business models,they must investigate the tax implications of divestments,carve-outs,and acquisitions.Each may be able to improve the tax efficiency of separated assets after the deal closes,but these opportunities are likely to be missed if they do not focus on the underlyin

104、g businesses.”Flavia Spadafora,Partner,Head of Automotive,KPMG in BrazilM&A is playing a crucial role in helping car companies accelerate their transformation efforts.Executives who can see into both buy and sell sides of the equation are likely to restructure their asset portfolio to grow more prof

105、itably.”Lenny LaRocca,Automotive Partner,KPMG in the USHow likely are you to divest nonstrategic parts of your businesses in the next several years?2021202211%21%34%34%30%22%21%20%3%3%Extremely likelyVery likelyModerately likelySlightly likelyNot likely at allTotal does not add to 100%due to roundin

106、gMany new automakers are pursuing“asset-light”strategies using third parties to manufacture their vehicle.Do you believe automakers can succeed using contract manufacturing?20212022Yes82%76%14%16%4%8%NoDontknowContract manufacturing of vehicles is emerging as a big,growth opportunity,as a result of

107、the large number of new EV automakers entering the market and the billions of dollars required to produce these vehicles at scale.Seventy-six percent believe automakers can succeed if the manufacture is done by a third party.Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn,which assembles iPhones for Apple,is working

108、 to produce EVs for Lordstown Motors and Fisker.In later 2022,Foxconn unveiled two of its own EV vehicle concepts.Elsewhere,Magna Steyr has begun producing the Fisker Ocean model and is working with several other OEMs.17 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG Int

109、ernational entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.2021202227%21%19%10%16%16%16%14%14%7%1%5%15%19%Advanced manufacturingengineers(e.g.,Industry 4.0)Digital marketing andsocial mediaElectronic hardwareengineersAl/AV softwareData scienceMechanical engineeringUI/UX designersSource:K

110、PMG International Which of these skills and roles do you believe will be the most important to your business in the next several years?Skills are a critical element in the transformation of the car industry.Workers with knowledge of advanced manufacturing continue to be the most sought after,but the

111、 past year has seen significant increases in demand for skills in the fields of electronics engineering,mechanical engineering,and data science.In the last several years there has been significant investment in auto start-ups.In the next 10 years,what do you think the impact of these companies will

112、be?2021202231%61%60%8%9%31%Major impactOne or more will take significant market share,causing a reordering of the industryModerate impactA few will find some success,but will be eventually bought out by established automakers or will remain niche.No impactMost,if not all,will failThe large number of

113、 automotive start-ups is changing the industry in many ways and executives expect them to have a considerable impact in the future.Nine out of ten executives say car startups will have a sizeable effect and,of these,three in ten expect them to take a significant market share.18 2022 Copyright owned

114、by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.Source:KPMG International Industry sentiment toward the development of autonomous vehicles(AV),is changing,after the billions spent to bring the technology to market.Execu

115、tives continue to be positive about the prospects for the technology,but have pushed further into the future the time when they will be available within major cities.Tesla remains the perceived leader,and by a wider margin than in 2021,since when there has been significant industry consolidation.Lyf

116、t sold its AV assets to Toyota(Woven Planet),Uber sold its self-driving unit to Aurora,and Ford and VW have shut down their Argo AI joint venture.These moves are a sign that implementing AV technology is proving more complex than previously thought.Success will require patience and deep pockets.When

117、 do you believe autonomous ride hailing and/or delivery will be commercially available within major cities in the following markets?ChinaIndiaJapanUSAWesternEurope26%38%25%9%0%3%9%35%28%23%5%0%20%40%28%11%0%1%1%2%1%26%39%26%8%0%1%15%40%33%11%0%2%21%30%27%11%7%2%5%33%30%24%5%15%35%32%15%2%2%19%31%32%

118、15%12%30%35%18%3%2%Before 20252025203020302035After 2035NeverDont know/no opinionTotal does not add to 100%due to rounding20212022Several forecasts show a delay in the implementation of autonomous driving systems.However,the economics and potential impact in urban ride-share markets and long-haul tr

119、ucking remain quite compelling.”Megumu Komikado,Partner,Head of Automotive,KPMG in JapanWhich company do you think will be the leader in autonomous vehicle solutions?20212022More than two-thirds of auto executives expect Apple to enter the car market with their own branded vehicles,a speculation fue

120、led in part by the entrance of Foxconn,the iPhone manufacturer,in the auto market.Incumbents often underestimate the impact of new entrants,and the auto industry is no exception.With more than 50 new manufacturers,a shakeout is inevitable.Some might succeed in their own right;others will be bought o

121、ut.There has rarely been a time of such disruption and some of the winners may surprise people.”Norbert Meyring,Partner,Head of Automotive,KPMG in ChinaTeslaHuaweiWaymo(Google)Argo Al(Ford and VW)Motional(Hyundai and Aptiv)Woven Planet(Toyota)Cruise(GM and Honda)MobileyeAuroraAutoX53%9%7%6%6%5%2%4%2

122、%1.2%TeslaHuaweiWaymo(Google)Argo Al(Ford and VW)Motional(Hyundai and Aptiv)Woven Planet(Toyota)Cruise(GM and Honda)BaiduAuroraAutoX331304324959106304387 79749224396 669120248294 662353430100438 573108372 51482260171 513108348 48693178150 42157134177368123Total does not add to 100%due to roundingWeR

123、idePony.aiDidiBaiduOther1.2%1.1%1%.5%.1%19 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.Source:KPMG International Do you think the following major technology companies will enter the auto market

124、with their own branded vehicles?20212022The prediction of auto execs that large technology companies are likely to enter the auto market is a sign that the tech and auto industries are converging.And not just two industries:aerospace companies are competing for a share of the market for air taxis.Te

125、ch companies not only have the technologies needed by auto makers;the larger technology firms also have the financial firepower to make a big impact in autos.”Per Edin,Automotive Principal,KPMG in the USWhen,if ever,do you believe eVTOLs will be in most major cities?2021202218%14%40%37%25%13%13%2%2%

126、2%2%32%Before 20302030203520352040After 2040NeverDont know/no opinionTotal does not add to 100%due to roundingEnthusiasm for flying cars,known as electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft(eVTOLs),remains strong,but executives have tempered expectations of when they will be widely available.Alm

127、ost seven in 10 now say they will be common sometime in the 2030s.GoogleAppleAmazonHuaweiSamsungTencentByteDanceBaidu62%30%8%60%35%6%58%35%10%55%35%10%48%40%12%34%48%19%29%51%20%59%32%9%68%24%8%57%33%9%45%39%16%42%44%14%30%47%23%25%48%27%28%47%25%YesNoDont knowTotal does not add to 100%due to roundi

128、ng20 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.ConclusionRarely has the automotive sector faced such an array of opportunities and challenges,as the survey shows.Executives predict big changes

129、 aheadnew powertrains,relationships with consumers,revenue models,manufacturing processes,technologies,and data flows.The next decade is slated to see business model innovation on a global scale.But their existing capabilities are not going to be enough to see them through.They should prepare to be

130、stretched as never before.Here are four implications of our survey to consider:Prepare for the unexpected:It is clear there are many“known unknowns,”but executives should plan for an even wider range of scenarios.There are many strategic questions that need to be asked.What assets should be divested

131、 and which ones acquired?Is it worth continuing to produce gasoline-powered cars?Does it make sense to work with a contract manufacturer?What software development needs to be done in-house?Leaders must test every assumption,challenge long-held beliefs and develop a culture that rewards this type of

132、thinking.Speed is of the essence:If executives think events are moving at a breakneck pace,they can expect the clock speed of change will go even faster in the coming years.The evolution of the automotive industry is rapidly accelerating,and the winners are likely to be those companies that make bet

133、ter decisions faster than their competitors.There are many roads that will lead to success and more than a few will end in failure.Now is the time to choose.You cant do it alone:To succeed,companies will need to develop skills outside their current competenciesfrom software development and software

134、as a service,to artificial intelligence/deep learning algorithms,to customer analytics and massive,new data sets.Some of these capabilities can be developed organically,but others will need to be obtained through alliances,joint ventures,and acquisitions.All about the customer:The auto industry has

135、for too long been distanced from its customers.No more.Digitization offers automakers the opportunity to build direct customer relationships that are deep,long-lasting,and mutually beneficial.Success will likely depend on creating a seamless,multi-year customer experience based on personalization,ef

136、ficiency and trust,especially over data stewardship.21 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.Respondent profileKPMG International conducted a survey of 915 executives across the automotive

137、 and adjacent industries in October 2022.Two hundred and seven CEOs responded to the survey,along with 209 other C-level executives,293 heads of business units and departments,and 205 business unit managers.Of these,15 percent work for car manufacturers and 15 percent for Tier-1 suppliers;16 percent

138、 are employed by information and communication technology companies.Among the respondents,351 work at companies with annual revenue of more than$1 billion.The two countries with the largest number of responses are the US(28 percent)and China(17 percent).Europe has 29 percent of respondents,with 26 p

139、ercent located in India,Japan,South Korea,Australia,Thailand,Indonesia,Canada,Latin America,South Africa,and Saudi Arabia.33%CEO/President/Chairman29%C-level Executive15%Business UnitHead/Functional Head11%Business Unit/Functional Manager11%Head of DepartmentTotal does not add to 100%due to rounding

140、Which of the following best describes your job title?Which of the following best describes your company?9%Independently ownedautomotive dealer 7%OEM captive financial services company5%Mobility solutions provider3%New technolo-gies components supplier3%OEM-owned dealer3%Truck manu-facturer2%Tier 2 o

141、r 3 supplier1%3%Noncaptive financial services company3%Mobility start-up company6%Energy supplier/charging infrastructure provider16%Information and communication technology company15%OEM/vehicle manufacturer15%Tier 1 supplier9%Technology start-up companyTransport(government)authoritiesSource:GAES 2

142、022,KPMG International 22 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.In what country,territory,or jurisdiction do you live?Not ApplicableLess than$100 million$100 million to$500 million$500 mil

143、lion to$1 billion$1 billion to$10 billionOver$10 billion3%36%29%24%0%8%Which of the following best describes your companys annual revenues in 2022?Number of respondentsNorth AmericaUnited States252CanadaMexico3422Western EuropeSpainFranceU.K.ItalySwedenDenmarkNetherlandsBelgiumNorwaySwitzerlandAustr

144、ia2731312597108767Germany82Eastern EuropeHungaryTurkeyCzech Republic376India and ASEANIndiaIndonesiaThailand52126Mature AsiaJapanSouth KoreaOther27121South AmericaBrazilArgentina329Rest of World AustraliaSaudi ArabiaSouth Africa17118ChinaChina154Source:GAES 2022,KPMG International 23 2022 Copyright

145、owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reserved.Some or all of the services described herein may not be permissible for KPMG audit clients and their affiliates or related entities.The information contained herein

146、is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity.Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information,there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accu

147、rate in the future.No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities.KPMG International entities provide no services to clients.All rights reser

148、ved.KPMG refers to the global organization or to one or more of the member firms of KPMG International Limited(“KPMG International”),each of which is a separate legal entity.KPMG International Limited is a private English company limited by guarantee and does not provide services to clients.For more

149、 detail about our structure please visit home.kpmg/governance.The KPMG name and logo are trademarks used under license by the independent member firms of the KPMG global organization.Throughout this document,“we”,“KPMG”,“us”and“our”refers to the global organization or to one or more of the member fi

150、rms of KPMG International Limited(“KPMG International”),each of which is a separate legal entity.Designed by DAS Design.DASD-2022-11095Publication name:Auto leaders prepare to seize big opportunitiesPublication date:December 2022Gary Silberg Global Head of Automotive,KPMG International,National Auto

151、motive Industry Leader,KPMG in the US+1 312 665 1916 Norbert Meyring KPMG in China+862122122707 Seung-Hoon Wi KPMG in Korea+82221120620 Vinod Ramachandran KPMG in India+912230901930 Megumu Komikado KPMG in Japan+81335485111 Ashley Peck Global Sector Executive,Growth&Strategy+1 770 710 7262 Flavia Sp

152、adafora KPMG in Brazil+551139407858 .brLenny LaRocca KPMG in the US+1 810 962 9122 GlobalScott Stelk Global Automotive Audit Leader KPMG International+1 917-318-6933 Peter Schalk Global Automotive Tax Leader KPMG International+49 174 3138574 Bernd Oppold Financial Services Leader KPMG International+

153、49 174 3368139 AmericasJames Walker KPMG in the US+1 248-766-7390 Per Edin KPMG in the US+1 650 605 5653 Fabrizio Ricci KPMG in Italy+3902676431 fabrizioriccikpmg.itLaurent Des Places KPMG in France+33155686877 ldesplaceskpmg.frRichard Peberdy KPMG in the UK+44 207 6944722 richard.peberdykpmg.co.ukG

154、oran Mazar EMA Automotive Leader,KPMG International Automotive Industry Leader,KPMG in Germany+49 172 6908101 Europe,Middle East,AfricaAcknowledgments:Angelika Huber-Straer KPMG in Germany+49 173 5764021 Remy Boulesteix KPMG in France+33615233808 rboulesteixkpmg.frAsia PacificThis survey would not be possible without the collaboration from colleagues around the world who generously contributed their support,knowledge and insights into the planning,analysis,writing and production of this report.Thank you to Anthony Magrogan,Ashley Peck,Bala Lakshman,Gary Chung,Iqbal Khan,Yoshinori Suganuma.