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1、The future of supply chains in EuropeMay 23,2022From disruption to reinventionMeet the AuthorsJean-Marc OllagnierCEO EuropeKris TimmermansSenior Managing Director,Lead Supply Chain&OperationsMichael BruecknerSenior Managing Director Growth&Strategy Lead,EuropeJean-Marc Ollagnier is the chief executi

2、ve officer of Accenture in Europe,with management oversight of all industries and services in Europe.He is also a member of Accentures Global Management Committee.Prior to being named to his current position in March 2020,Jean-Marc was group chief executive of Accentures Resources group since 2011 s

3、erving the energy,utilities,chemicals,forestry products,metals and mining industries.Between 2006 and 2011,Jean-Marc served as managing director for Accentures Resources group in Europe,Africa,the Middle East and Latin America.Prior to this role he was country managing director of Accenture in Franc

4、e and the Benelux countries.Kris Timmermans leads Accentures Supply Chain&Operations function and is a member of the companys Global Management Committee,where he also represents the Chief Financial Officer/Enterprise Value and Customer and Channels functions.Kris has set a clear mission for supply

5、chain:help clients reimagine their supply networks to be more relevant,resilient,and socially and environmentally responsible.He guides a multidisciplinary team using the transformative power of data and technology to drive customer-centric business models.With 27 years of experience in the sector,K

6、ris is a pioneer in the evolution toward digitally powered“intelligent”supply chains.Since joining Accenture in 1994,he has led supply chain and enterprise-wide transformations for clients across multiple sectors,including consumer goods,automotive,chemicals,pharmaceuticals,industrial equipment and

7、life sciences.Michael leads Growth&Strategy for Europe,overseeing all aspects of Accentures strategy including shaping and implementing strategy and investments,including several significant acquisitions.He also serves on Accentures Global Leadership Committee and Europes Management Committee.Michae

8、l has been with Accenture for more than 22 years and held many significant roles including Head of Health&Life Sciences,Strategy&Management Consulting lead,Regional P&L for Products Industries,and Global Growth&Strategy Lead for Accenture Digital.2Contents Disruption:sources ofdisruptionRisk:value a

9、t stake and projected recoveryReinvention:how to reinvent supply chains for a new era of perpetual uncertainty3Due to the pandemic,companies were already struggling with supply chain disruption Economic losses due to supply chain disruptions in the Eurozone in 2021.1-112.7billion-0.9%of GDPPlease re

10、fer to Methodology section.4The war in Ukrainehas compoundedthese challengesSeveral factors are exacerbating the shock to supply:energy prices and inflation raw material shortages and logistics breakdowns talent shortagesDepending on the length and severityof the war,the cost of supply chain disrupt

11、ion in the Eurozone across 2022-2023 could amount to:242 billion(2%of GDP)in an ongoing war scenario,or 920 billion(7.7%of GDP)in a protracted war scenario.2Please refer to methodology section.5Disruption:supply chain shocks and the accumulation of disruption6Supply chain shocksLack of material supp

12、liesResurging demand and initial precautionary hoarding led to inflation and overwhelmed supply chains.The concentration of suppliers for critical minerals and food is compounding challenges.For example,Russia is one of the largest suppliers of palladium,platinum and diamonds,4 while Ukraine is a cr

13、itical supplier for neon gas,agricultural products,and metal ores.5Logistics breakdownsTransportation bottlenecks worsened input shortages and sent costs skyrocketing.Continued lockdowns in Chinese ports and war in Ukraine further strain the issue.90%of Ukraines wheat exports have halted due to port

14、 closures.Ukraine accounts for nearly 10%of global wheat exports.Wheat prices hit record highs,rising 30%in 2022Q1 on the previous quarter.3Energy securityEnergy markets were already undersupplied before the war given the economic recovery.The war in Ukraine has caused further oil and gas price spik

15、es:the price of brent crude oil could peak at$115 USD per barrel in 2022.6Suppliers are shutting down some operations because energy costs are too high,which creates another wave of input supply shocks.A tight talent marketLabor and skill shortages plagued most industries.The war has created further

16、 tension in targeted skills areas like transportation.14.5%of the global seafarer workforce are from Russia and Ukraine.77Logistics breakdownsPorts,vessels and containers are critical to trade.Around 90%of traded goods are transported by ocean shipping.8The pandemic disrupted logistics networks,and

17、the war is compounding everything.The result?more pricing and availability issues in ocean freight greater port congestion longer air traffic routes and transit times delays in road and rail transportationRising rates and severe port congestionWith Russia-bound containers stranded in Europe and lock

18、downs in the Chinese port of Shanghai,global port congestion was still close to peak levels in April 2022,causing delays and low arrival reliability.9Container shortages and severe port congestion have driven shipping rates rising to nearly 10 times their level compared to June 2020.10Liners have or

19、dered over 500 new container vessels,but they wont come online until 2023 or 2024.118-2-1012342010201120122013201420152016201720182019 2020 20212022IndustryConstructionZ-scoresLack of material supplies.Companies are increasingly concerned about the lack of intermediate inputs and critical components

20、.Supply of these is concentrated:over half(52%)of the share of EU import value ofthe most foreign-dependent products originates from China.12 Naturally,supply shortages have billowing effects across industries like automotive.In Germany,car production in the first four months of 2022 was down 32%com

21、pared to 2019 as a result of a lack of primary product inputs.13Material shortages are a rising concern Source:Oxford Economics/Haver AnalyticsNotes:A z-score is a numerical measurement that describes a values relationship to the mean of a group of values.We compute z-scores to indicate the extent t

22、o which reported shortages have risen by historical standards.9.A tight talent market-7.2mworkers in Germany projected by 2035.14The most complex and enduring supply chain disruptor is the talent challenge.The skills the world needs are changing,along with demographics and employee expectations.The

23、combined effect of these monumental shifts is here to stay.To contend with tight labor markets,employers will need to continue to consider raising wages and improving working conditions as they attempt to attract and retain workers.The changing world of work 1 in 4UK workers areplanning a job change

24、.15425,000heavy goods vehicle driver shortfall in Europe.1662%of supply chain leaders say their employees are not advancing enough in the new skills their companies need.1710Energy securityEnergy security is difficult to protect,as both world and European economies are still heavily reliant on oil a

25、nd gas.Together,oil and gas make up nearly 50%of the total energy supply in 2022.18How can we reduce dependency?Increase industrial and building efficiency and switch to green electricity and low-carbon transport fuels.A few comparisons:A combination of 20 million Electric Vehicles(EVs)and 200,000 h

26、eavy-duty trucks using renewable diesel can replace the equivalent of more than 150 million barrels of oil demand.19Switching 15%of European aviation to sustainable aviation fuels(SAF)can reduce oil demand similar to the impact of ca.10 million EVs in road transport.20.Notes:1 Assumed a car using 72

27、0 liter of gasoline a year with 6 l/100km and 12,000 km/yr.2 Assuming a 40-ton truck using 33.1 L/100km for 150.000 km/year.3 Based on European 2021 aviation fuel demand4 Assumed gas-fired baseload power plants replaced by flexible wind/solar/battery storage mix able to provide stable supply similar

28、 to baseload power generation.5 Assuming 0.03 boe natural gas needed to produce 1 kg SMR-based H2 todaySource:Accenture Research Analysis based on Eurostat and IEA906442604220 million passenger electric vehicles200,000 trucks on renewable diesel or green H2215%of European aviation on Sustainable Avi

29、ation Fuels/synfuels3+5%in industrial efficiency in Europe+US+5%in building efficiency in Europe+US5%of Europe gas-fired powergen to renewables4109164OilGas30%of Europe refinery demand from grey togreen hydrogen 5Potential actions to reduce dependency on petroleum-based energyOil and gas demand avoi

30、ded(Million barrels of oil equivalent(Mmboe)/yr)11Risk:value at stake and projected recovery12The war impactPrimary market forces such as economic growth,inflation and consumer sentiment,already impacted by the effects of the pandemic,will be further influenced by the evolution of the war.As a resul

31、t,we have considered a number of possible scenarios that may unfold,with varying levels of economic impact.Unfortunately,the controlled impact scenario has elapsed.The ongoing impact is the current baseline.2.Ongoing impact Supply disruption of key commodities continues through 2022.Some countries c

32、ontinue to face oil and gas embargoes.Commodity supply shocks cause short-term price increases.Consumers cut back on some nonessentials and businesses focus on improving operating efficiency.3.Protracted impact A wide Russian oil and gas embargo leads to significant structural supply disruption.Comm

33、odity prices remain high and volatile into 2023.Sustained price increases reduce consumer spending power,contributing to a notable decline in consumer and business confidence and a slowdown in growth.1.Controlled impact Sanctions do not escalate and may even scale back as part of a negotiated truce,

34、alleviating supply disruptions.Commodity prices return to prewar levels.Consumer and business confidence increases;companies and people return to prewar investment plans and spending.2.Ongoing impact Supply disruption of key commodities continues through 2022.Some countries continue to face oil and

35、gas embargoes.Commodity supply shocks cause short-term price increases.Consumers cut back on some nonessentials and businesses focus on improving operating efficiency.3.Protracted impact A wide Russian oil and gas embargo leads to significant structural supply disruption.Commodity prices remain high

36、 and volatile into 2023.Sustained price increases reduce consumer spending power,contributing to a notable decline in consumer and business confidence and a slowdown in growth.Three potential scenarios13Market force:economic growthpoint changeSource:Based on the mapping of Oxford Economics World Eco

37、nomic Prospects estimates to three scenarios of controlled impact(upside as of April 25th 2022),ongoing(baseline data as of April 25th 2022)and protracted(downside,April 25th 2022)Ongoing impact scenarioProtracted impact scenarioControlled impact scenario%GDP yoy real growthThe current view among ec

38、onomic forecasters is that the war will lead to a material deceleration in growth.21Under the ongoing scenario,Oxford Economics forecasts that the Eurozone will avoid recession,but Eurozone gross domestic product(GDP)will be 1.1 percentage point lower in 2022,relative to prewar forecasts made in Jan

39、uary of 3.9%.22The Eurozones trade relationships make it vulnerable to a slowdownForecasted GDP growth in the Eurozone by scenario(Percentage yoy change)14Prewar forecast00,511,522,533,5420222023Market force:inflation%CPI yoy increaseInflationary pressure may lead to potential upward pressure on wag

40、e inflation in some countries and industries.Under the ongoing scenario,Oxford Economics forecasts that inflation will rise by 5.9 percentage points in 2022 and by 1.2 percentage points in 2023.23Inflation is forecasted to rise in the EurozoneForecasted Eurozone inflation by scenario(Percentage yoy

41、change)Ongoing impact scenarioProtracted impact scenarioControlled impact scenarioSource:Based on the mapping of Oxford Economics World Economic Prospects estimates to three scenarios of controlled impact(upside as of April 25th 2022),ongoing(baseline data as of April 25th 2022)and protracted(downsi

42、de,April 25th 2022)15Prewar forecast012345678920222023Energy inputs=percent share of energy inputs(of total intermediate inputs)for the utilities industry.Energy inputs include coal and lignite,crude petroleum and natural gas,coke and refined petroleum products and electricity,gas,steam and air cond

43、itioningInflation impacts differ by industry*Weighted average of 19 industries(Aerospace&Defense,Automotive/Mobility,Banking,Capital Markets,Chemicals,Communications&Media,Consumer Goods&Services,Energy,Health,High Tech,Industrial,Insurance,Life Sciences,Natural Resources,Public Sector,Retail,Softwa

44、re&Platforms,Travel,Utilities).*Utilities include electricity,gas and steam(and exclude water and waste management)Source:Accenture Research analysis of OECD Input Output tables.Industries bearing the most exposure to inflation are those in which material inputs,energy and labor represent a large pa

45、rt of the overall cost structure.Take the chemicals industry,where material costs tie mainly to the cost of petroleum.Similarly,the high-tech and industrial sectors(excluding logistics/freight)rely on energy-intensive material inputs.24The critical question:Is it possible to pass increased costs ont

46、o customers?Cost structure of selected industries in Europe(%share of inputs)Materials Inputs14%Industry Average*Automotive78%Aerospace&Defence:75%Consumer Goods&Services:72%Energy Inputs8%Industry Average*Utilities*:51%Mobility/Freight:11%Chemicals:10%Labor Inputs59%Industry Average*Public Services

47、:77%Health:75%Software&Platforms:67%16Materials inputs=percent share of materials inputs(of total intermediate inputs).Materials inputs include all raw materials and processed goods.Energy inputs=percent share of energy inputs(of total intermediate inputs).These include coal and lignite,crude petrol

48、eum and natural gas,coke and refined petroleum products as well as electricity,gas,steam and air conditioning.Labor inputs=percent share of wage within value added.The supply chain is thenerve center of the European economyUp to 30%of total European value added relies on functioning cross border sup

49、ply chains,either as a source of input or as a destination for production.25We see particular exposure to supply chain shocks in manufacturing sectors,and even more in industries like high tech(e.g.,80%of final value added comes from inputs sourced across borders,while 75%of demand for final product

50、s comes from non-domestic markets),automotive and aerospace.26Industry exposure to supply chain disruption variesValue added by European industry related to supply and demand networks(Share of value added final demand)Note:Size of the bubble indicates weight on GDP in 2022,color indicates expected G

51、DP CAGR for the 19-24 period under Oxford Economics baseline scenario*1,2%is CAGR expected for total economy.High indicates the industry is growing faster than the overall economySource:Accenture Research Analysis of OECD TiVA and Oxford Economics Industry Databank.IndustrialOther servicesPublic Ser

52、vicesRetailHealthNatural ResourcesBankingSoftware and PlatformsTravelCommunications and MediaUtilitiesChemicalsConsumer Goods and ServicesLife SciencesOther ManufacturingInsuranceHigh TechAutomotive/MobilityCapital Aerospace&DefenseEnergy-10%10%30%50%70%90%0%20%40%60%80%100%Imported Value(share of v

53、alue added of European final demand that comes from inputs from the rest of the world)Exported Value(share of non-domestic demand for European production)Real GDP growthHigh above 1,2%*Moderate between 0,6%and 1,2%Low below 0,6%17The value at stakeA protracted scenario could cost up to 920 billion i

54、n lost GDP for Eurozone economies as a result of supply shocks.2718Ongoing ScenarioProtracted ScenarioLost GDP in real figuresIn 2022-2023-242 billion-920 billionLost GDP%in 2023-2.0%-7.7%Source:Oxford Economics Global Economic Model results for scenarios designed by Accenture ResearchDisruptionReco

55、very timeLogistics disruptionMaterials shortagesEnergy pricesLabour and skill shortages Labor and skills shortages will remain a long-term,structural issue for European economies across all scenarios.That said,these labor shortages will be rather less acute over the next 18 months in the“protracted

56、impact”scenario,given the weaker outlook for economic activity.Recovery time by scenario:supply chain disruptions could take up to 24 months to ease in a protracted scenario,versus approximately 12 months in the ongoing impact scenario.280-3mm3-6mm6-9mm9-12mm12-15m15-18m18-21m21-24mPrewar baseline“C

57、ontrolled Impact”“Ongoing Impact”“Protracted Impact”0-3mm3-6mm6-9mm9-12mm12-15m15-18m18-21m21-24mPrewar baseline“Controlled Impact”“Ongoing Impact”“Protracted Impact”0-3mm3-6mm6-9mm9-12mm12-15m15-18m18-21m21-24mPrewar baseline“Controlled Impact”“Ongoing Impact”“Protracted Impact”Source:Oxford Econom

58、ics Global Economic Model results for scenarios designed by Accenture Research19Reinvention:how to reinvent supply chains for a new era of perpetual uncertainty20The Reinvention of Supply Chains From:Optimizing for CostEnergy,material,transportation as a commodity availability is more important than

59、 source.Global networks that prioritize efficiency.Sustainability is an afterthought.Products and processes designed with a linear mindset-responsibility ends when the product is purchased.Powered by Digital TechnologiesReal Time data,Cloud and Intelligent OperationsA Paradigm ShiftEurope is at the

60、dawn of a new era:a new energy system,new economic cycles and a new geopolitical order.The decade ahead heralds a fundamental rethinking of supply chains for competitiveness.To:Optimizing for Value and Resilience Reimagined networks that focus on security of supply and services,tier-1 and beyond,pri

61、oritizing sourcing diversification.Supply chains prioritize increasing relevancy to customers,with a holistic definition of value,markets/customers proximity.Sustainability as a must have embedded by design supply chains become circular.21Redesigning for the new era To contend with an uncertain futu

62、re and build long-term value,European businesses need to redesign their supply chains around three key ideas:resilience,relevance and sustainability.02Relevance01Resilience03Sustainability22ResilienceResilience is enhanced by a combination of visibility,agile processes and robust networks which also

63、 offer additional benefits in the mid-and long-term,such as achieving sustainability goals and complying with supply chain regulations.How to get there:Address operational riskRespond to sudden supply chain changes with improved dynamic visibility,risk identification and mitigation solutions.Address

64、 tactical riskAdapt to evolving supply and demand with scenario planning and risk/opportunity analysis as part of sales and operations planning.Address strategic riskManage uncertainty by boosting flexibility and capacity through network modeling and simulation,stress tests,strategic buffer sizing a

65、nd multi-sourcing options.BenefitsEarly detection of logistics challenges,demand spikes and material shortages.Dynamic visibility of the supply chain to respond to disruptions as they happen as well as help achieve sustainability targets and regulatory compliance.Potential to offset investment costs

66、,as the same technologies you use to build your intelligent supply chain can provide mid-and long-term benefits to sustainability and compliance.Modern supply chains must minimize day-to-day risk but also absorb,adapt to,and recover from catastrophe whenever and wherever it strikes.Organizations can

67、 proactively manage risk and boost resilience by building intelligent and resilient supply chains that are risk-aware,secure,transparent,adaptive,fast-moving and optimized.of European C-level executives are planning fundamental changes to their operations as a result of the crises.2986%23RelevanceCu

68、stomer needs are accelerating and changing especially in terms of value,choice,and convenience.Relevance requires that companies are there for their customers“moments that matter”by prioritizing the customer experience.71%of executives say that technology is giving them the opportunity to reimagine

69、the fundamentals of their business.30The relevant supply chain is intelligent and agile,able to anticipate and adapt to shifting business conditions and remain applicable to customer expectations,stakeholder demands and ecosystem potential with data,analytics and automation at its core.How to get th

70、ere:Learn from the future Capture new data sets that come directly from customer interaction,including real-time data,from inside and outside your organization and across the value chain.Process data using automation and artificial intelligence(AI)to identify new data patterns rapidly and inform dec

71、ision making.Reinvent the organizationMove to a flatter,faster organizational structure where the corporate center and C-suite focus on making cross-cutting decisions together.Jointly define organizational purpose,set strategy and allocate capital for key initiatives.Work backwards from the customer

72、 embed capabilities into business processes that directly benefit the customer experience.Embed intelligence in the enterpriseTransition to intelligent processes,products and platforms.Apply a cloud-first approach as the key tenet of your supply chain transformation.Use tools like zero-based cost ma

73、nagement to overcome the ongoing effects of inflation.BenefitsMitigates supply chain challenges for materials,logistics and labor.Allows you to manage service levels and costs while providing an infrastructure and governance model to unleash innovation and growth.26SustainabilityEvery business must

74、now be a sustainable business.Companies must pursue improved environmental,social,and governance performance by transforming their operations to be circular,net zero and trusted.63%of European executives state that becoming a truly responsible/sustainable business is a top priority over the next thr

75、ee years.31The sustainable supply chain factors in current and future needs of all stakeholder groups including business leaders,employees,customers,investors,ecosystem partners and society at large.How to get there:Reach net zero and beyond Find ways to get your value chain to zero environmental an

76、d social impact.From there,look for ways to become net positive.A deep understanding of the impact of your internal operations and those of partners and suppliers is vital.Engage in circular business models Shift from linear processes to closed-loop,circular processes that minimize waste.Recycling,r

77、euse,and repurposing must replace a“use once”mindset.Find creative ways to nurture talent Redesigning for sustainability calls for a rethink of workforce skills.Moving toward more empowered,multidisciplinary teams means people may need to take on more complex roles.Build trust through transparency U

78、se multiparty systems like blockchain to add transparency to your value chain and improve trust among stakeholders.BenefitsHelps ensure a habitable world and the availability of resources for future generations.Reduces global socioeconomic inequities and unlocks the power of all employees.25The deca

79、de to deliver:Finding ways to grow amid uncertaintyis the new perennial leadership challenge26For leaders and their organizations,there is no return to the relative comfort and safety of thenot-so-distant past.The war in Ukraine,on top of the effects of the pandemic,has made clear that many of the c

80、omfortable certainties on which business leaders have long relied are no longer there.Success may ultimately depend on how well leaders adapt to the demands of this new,testing environment.More than ever,their resolve will be critical.MethodologyCost of supply chain disruptions:We estimated the impa

81、ct of supply disruptions for 2021 in two stages,focusing on energy and non-energy bottlenecks separately:Step 1:the impact of non-energy bottlenecks(logistical disruptions,and shortages of labor and materials)was estimated:We ran a counterfactual scenario on the Oxford Global Economic Model,where de

82、velopments in demand were allowed to feed through to sectoral output under normal conditions.We then compared the counterfactual with the outturn in 2021 to estimate losses from these non-energy supply bottlenecks.Results were sense-checked against country-level survey evidence on supply disruptions

83、.Step 2:we estimated the impact of higher energy bills:We ran another counterfactual scenario on the Oxford Global Economic Model to estimate how the economy would have developed if energy prices had remained at more normal levels.Step 3:We then compared the counterfactual with the outturn in 2021 t

84、o estimate losses from these energy-related disruptions.The estimated impacts resulting from energy and non-energy disruptions were combined to produce total cost estimates(based on output losses and measured in nominal Euro terms)for the Eurozone.These were then aggregated to estimate the total imp

85、act.Industries of focus include manufacturing,construction,retail and wholesale trade and transportation and storage.Industry dependance on cross-border inputs and demandStep 1:As demand impacts,we estimate the share of non-domestic demand for a countrys total production.Using data from the OECD TiV

86、Atables,for each industry in each country we estimated the following shares:Value added by source Country to Final demand World-Value added by source Country to Final demand Domestic/Value added by source Country to Final demand WorldStep 2:As supply we compute the share of value added of a countrys

87、 final demand that comes from inputs of rest of the world.Using data from the OECD TiVAtables,for each industry in each country we estimated the following shares:Value added by source World to Final demand Country-Value added by source Domestic to Final demand of the country/Value added by source Wo

88、rld to Final demand Country.Analysis covers all 19 Eurozone countries.Scenario analysisStep 1:The Oxford Global Economic Model was used to project forward the path of the Eurozone economy under three alternative scenarios relating to the Ukraine conflict:Controlled impact scenario where sanctions do

89、 not escalate and may even be scaled back as part of a negotiated truce,alleviating supply disruptions.Commodity prices return to prewar levels and so does consumer and business confidence.Ongoing baseline scenario:The conflict in Ukraine proves to be relatively short lived,with a negotiated settlem

90、ent achieved by the end of 2022.The major economic spillovers from the war on the rest of the world are via higher prices for commodities such as oil,gas,and wheat and wider financial market disruptions.Protracted impact scenario:In this scenario,we assume that the fighting in Ukraine lasts into 202

91、3 and the West imposes further sanctions on Russia.Gas prices spike higher,while uncertainty in financial markets and among consumers also increases,exacerbating the negative impact of high inflation.Prewar figures refer to forecasted figures as of January 2022Step 2:Potential losses of the ongoing

92、baseline scenario and those of a more protracted scenario are measured as the differential relative to prewar forecast,adding both 2022 and 2023 losses in real Euros.Recovery times are based on Oxford Economics baseline assumptions and draw on a range of Oxford Economics forecasts,market data,and ot

93、her indicators of future supply capacity.27References1 Accenture Research analysis of Oxford Economics data2Oxford Economics Global Economic Model results for scenarios designed by Accenture Research3“Commodity Markets Outlook April 2022”,World Bank(2022)4 Everest data,used with permission5“Commodit

94、y Markets Outlook April 2022”,World Bank(2022)6Oxford Economics data7“Russian and Ukrainian seafarers make up 14.5%of global shipping workforce,according to ICS,”International Chamber of Shipping(2022),used with permission8“Ocean shipping and shipbuilding,”OECD9“Container shipping:volume growth calm

95、s,tariffs remain strong,”ING Bank N.V.(2022)10“Harper Peterson Charter Rates Index,”Harper Petersen,used with permission11“Container shipping:volume growth calms,tariffs remain strong,”ING Bank N.V.(2022)12“Strategic dependencies and capacities,”European Commission(2021)13VDA Press Release(“Producti

96、on and market also down in April,”),from 4 May 2022,used with permission14“Nur mit einer jhrlichen Nettozuwanderung von 400.000 Personen bleibt das Arbeitskrfteangebot langfristig konstant,”Institute for Employment Research(2021)15“The great resignation:69%of UK workers ready to move job,”Randstad(2

97、021),used with permission16“European road freight rates index up 4.3 points in Q1,hitting a new record,”IRU(2022),used with permission17“Skilling the future supply chain workface is easier than you think,”Accenture(2022)18Thunder Said Energy 2022,used with permission19“The war in Ukraine:A moment of

98、 reckoning for the oil and gas industry,”Accenture(2022)20ibid.21Accenture Research analysis based on Morgan Stanley,Barclays,Goldman Sachs,BNP Paribas,Credit Suisse and J.P.Morgan 2022 GDP&Inflation Outlooks22Oxford Economics Global Economics Database.Prewar refers to forecast as of January 202223

99、ibid.24Accenture Research analysis of OECD World Input Output tables 25 Accenture Research analysis of OECD TiVA and Oxford Economics Industry Databank26ibid.27Oxford Economics Global Economic Model results for scenarios designed by Accenture Research28ibid.29Accenture Survey of 1,100 C Suite execut

100、ives in Europe;10thDecember 2021 21stJanuary 202230Accenture Survey of 300 C Suite Executive in Europe,10thJanuary 28thFebruary 2022 31Accenture Survey of 545 C Suite Executives in Europe,1stOctober 30thNovember 202128About AccentureAccenture is a global professional services company with leading ca

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109、nd HBSguides our innovations and allows us to transform theories and fresh ideas into real-world solutions for our clients.AcknowledgementsResearch LeadSvenja FalkResearch TeamLaura WrightAna Ruiz HernanzStephen MeyerVincenzo PalermoBobby JamesDeepak TantryMamta KapurMaria Victoria ArbeletcheLasse KariYuhui XiongMarketing+Communications TeamSusie RavasioBradley NixonFrancois LuuKaren Wolf