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1、Navigating the global real estate reset 2023 Global Investor OutlookGlobal Capital MarketsActionable advice has never been more important to investors in real assets.Faced with a macro environment that offers no shortage of reasons to hesitate,many are confining capital to the sidelines,awaiting mor

2、e clarity and for relative stability to return.We understand this caution and that,more than anything,what our clients value at this volatile point in time is guidance on how policy shifts are likely to impact portfolio performance;on which markets or assets remain firmly positioned for long-term gr

3、owth;on managing risks and meeting the demands of their many stakeholders.The 2023 Colliers Global Capital Markets Investor Outlook is designed to provide a big-picture version of the tailored intelligence we deliver to individual clients.It distills views from Colliers senior real estate leaders an

4、d experts across our markets globally,along with data from a survey of our international investor client base and our industry-leading research team.As the report will show,real estate is by no means immune to the volatility impacting capital markets globally.In many markets a recalibration is under

5、way that we expect to continue well into 2023.Yet,it is also immediately evident that the fundamentals around real estate remain strong and that investors are highly attuned to the advantages it presents as an asset class.We are already witnessing heightened interest in assets and locations where va

6、lue has clearly emerged and bolder investors are judging a bottom has been reached.When confidence returns to the markets in earnest,we expect a surge in activity as investors look to make up for months of paralysis,putting the substantial pools of capital they have at their disposal to work.It is f

7、or all these reasons that we recommend that investors view recent trends not so much as a downturn but as a return to relative rationality.It is a time that presents some truly exceptional opportunities for those with the right strategies and resources.In key gateway cities this period could be view

8、ed as a once-in-a-lifetime chance to buy top-quality real estate at a significant discount to historical averages.Just as 2023 will continue to present risks and challenges,many of which will be unexpected,we will continue to provide our investor clients the insights they need to navigate market shi

9、fts and capitalize on the possibilities that emerge as a result.Fundamentals around real estate remain strong.Tony HorrellHead of Global Capital Markets&CEO UK&IrelandForewordFOREWORD2023 GLOBAL KEY THEMES:ONETWOTHREEFOURFIVESIXSEVENKEY TAKEAWAYSREPORT CONTRIBUTORSEIGHTThis is the third edition of o

10、ur annual outlook for global property investors and is an exploration of the forces that will shape the real estate world in 2023 and beyond.The number of investor responses for this survey has been higher than ever,undoubtedly reflecting investors concerns and views on global and regional real esta

11、te markets in the year ahead.In addition to investor responses to the survey,we interviewed over 30 Colliers Capital Markets professionals to provide their local,sectoral,and regional insights.Background30+in-depth interviews with our Capital Markets experts around the world.Sentiment from 750+inves

12、tors who took part in our global outlook survey.What is your company type?About the reportAbout the investors surveyedPrivate Investor/Family Office/Family TrustPrivate EquityInvestment ManagerInstitution(e.g.Pension Fund,Insurance Company,Sovereign Wealth Fund)Listed Property Company(e.g.REIT)Lende

13、r(e.g.Bank,Debt Fund)Other12%11%41%8%12%14%2%How do you manage and deploy capital?*DirectIndirectPlatform:Mergers&AcquisitionsPlatform:Joint VentureSeparate AccountsOther*This chart represents how often each selection was chosen relative to total responses provided.For each selection,the%figure indi

14、cates the percentage of investors surveyed who chose this specific selection,whereby each investor could choose multiple answers.87%30%29%20%10%2%Responses included:Developer,Private REIT,Real Estate Consultant,Superannuation,Owner&Operator FOREWORD2023 GLOBAL KEY THEMES:ONETWOTHREEFOURFIVESIXSEVENK

15、EY TAKEAWAYSREPORT CONTRIBUTORSEIGHT2023 Global key themesFOREWORD2023 GLOBAL KEY THEMES:ONETWOTHREEFOURFIVESIXSEVENKEY TAKEAWAYSREPORT CONTRIBUTORSEIGHT1.Pricing“reset”and recalibration before stabilization.2.Momentum is key.3.Expect the unexpected.4.Pockets of opportunity rather than widespread di

16、stress.5.More platform and privatization plays.6.A shift from equity to debt.7.A flight to quality and a focus on fundamentals.8.Sustainability driving decisions,as opposed to an afterthought.Inflation and higher interest rates will continue to weigh on investor decision making in 2023 as the market

17、 continues on a journey of price discovery.Markets have already seen a correction in pricing,particularly during Q3 of 2022,with yields/cap rates moving out by up to 100 basis points.However,some markets are yet to see any price correction,emphasizing that the timing of the“landing,stabilization and

18、 recovery”of each market and sector will differ markedly.Overall,Colliers consensus is that the stabilization of the global real estate market will take hold by mid-2023 as more certainty emerges around the interest rate and economic outlook.Survey results reflect the significant variance in how and

19、 when markets will land.Overall,investors consensus view is that there will be a further correction in core asset values of-10%by the end of 2023.Value-add assets are prone to a further drop.That said,almost 20%of investors stated that they simply“dont know”where values will land in 2023.This was ab

20、ove 30%for retail,hospitality,and multifamily/build-to-rent(BTR)value-add assets.We would put this down to the multiple factors driving pricing change across markets,and the timing and velocity of change.Our global investor survey took place between October 3-November 3,2022,during which time there

21、were significant changes in values in some markets.We cannot be certain whether all the views expressed by investors accounted for this or they represent the expectation of further price changes in 2023.It simply confirms that the price discovery journey still has some way to go.The view on value ch

22、ange also differs by region.For North American core offices,this was far more bearish,with 13%of investors believing values will decline by over 20%in 2023.Less than 5%thought this would be the case in APAC and EMEA.1.Pricing“reset”and recalibration before stabilization.Our experts view“How this pla

23、ys out in the more transparent,liquid markets will dictate the most popular gateway destinations for global capital.Those markets which reprice the quickest,and so look like better value,will attract money in the first part of 2023.Those markets that lag behind on repricing may find themselves waiti

24、ng longer for investment to return.There are two markets that are already clearly repricing faster than all the others the UK and U.S.”Tony Horrell,Head of Global Capital Markets&CEO UK&IrelandGlobal capital values:%change in 2023 for all asset classes0%5%10%15%20%25%30%I dont know20%+10 to 20%0 to

25、10%No change0 to-10%-10 to-20%-20%+Value-addCore%of investors deciding what the capital values will be for core and value-add across all asset classes.Source:Colliers 2023 Global Investor SurveyFOREWORD2023 GLOBAL KEY THEMES:ONETWOTHREEFOURFIVESIXSEVENKEY TAKEAWAYSREPORT CONTRIBUTORSEIGHT2.Momentum

26、is key.Sentiment across markets is clearly low,with investor attention primarily focused on managing a“survival and stability”strategy before turning their attention to growth.The speed with which investors can get assets into a stable position will be key to driving positive momentum and an upturn

27、in market activity.The challenge is the market remains susceptible to further shocks and events that have the capacity to trigger backward steps,as much as push the market forward.3.Expect the unexpected.It is unlikely to be a smooth landing,certainly not for all markets.Real estate markets offer a

28、solid,long-term investment and income stream once pricing levels are clearer.Yet the factors influencing decision-making are changing hourly and daily,not monthly or quarterly,so many of the benchmarks,data,and analysis used to guide future activity become redundant.Currency volatility is yet anothe

29、r factor for investors to consider.Investors just cannot predict where future finance costs are going,and it is very difficult to financially model new opportunities.Those who pay all cash still think the markets havent moved enough in terms of pricing,creating a sense of“Why buy today when it could

30、 be cheaper tomorrow?”While the market is feeding off daily market changes and anecdotes,it is unlikely to pick up any real momentum.Top regional macro challengesAPACEMEAThe AmericasEnergy supply/costsDeglobalization/rising geopolitical tension(global/regional)Currency fluctuation62%78%58%68%72%53%6

31、3%61%49%Source:Colliers 2023 Global Investor SurveyGlobal challenges:key downside risksInterest rates88%Inflation74%Supply chain disruption68%Average%of investors who cited the following as the top three negative challenges that will affect their real estate strategies in 2023.FOREWORD2023 GLOBAL KE

32、Y THEMES:ONETWOTHREEFOURFIVESIXSEVENKEY TAKEAWAYSREPORT CONTRIBUTORSEIGHT4.Pockets of opportunity rather than widespread distress.The current environment is different from crises past.Unlike the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis,liquidity remains broadly available,leverage is lower,and demand

33、 in most asset classes remains healthy.However,capital values will be negatively impacted by the transition to higher interest rates,so some distress will become more evident in 2023.Investors will be under pressure to refinance,and it will not be confined to owners who invested late-cycle or in hig

34、h-risk assets.Investors are already eyeing the relative bargains that may emerge,with significant opportunity funds being drawn up to act on assets that have to trade,particularly in the first half of 2023.This will help drive new pricing levels.6.005.004.003.002.001.000.00-1.00-0.10-0.104.003.252.5

35、02.753.432.702.754.252.503.75STIR 23 Forecast5yr SwapSTIR 24 ForecastShort Term Interest Rates(STIR)vs Swap Rates3.523.943.980.32.453.86CanadaUnited StatesJapanEurozoneUnited KingdomAustraliaOur experts view%“Investors will find low basis opportunities in the gateway markets of New York,San Francisc

36、o,Washington,D.C.,Boston,Chicago,and Los Angeles,as liquidity events drive decision-making.This will allow buyers to reposition assets,through reinvestment or conversion.Alternative asset classes such as life science are viable targets,while conversions to assets within the broader housing sector ar

37、e also gaining traction.”David Amsterdam,President,U.S.Capital Markets&Northeast RegionSource:Colliers/FactSet/BloombergData based on daily rates and forecasts as of November 29,2022FOREWORD2023 GLOBAL KEY THEMES:ONETWOTHREEFOURFIVESIXSEVENKEY TAKEAWAYSREPORT CONTRIBUTORSEIGHT5.More platform and pri

38、vatization plays.Publicly listed investors continue to trade at discounts to net asset value(NAV).Although these discounts have started to wind back in,we will see risk-on private equity and other cash-rich investors take positions in the listed sector,with routes to market including the purchase of

39、 bonds that can be converted to equity.Tighter conditions also mean some of the larger platforms assembled by developers and asset owners will become increasingly expensive to maintain.This will lead to large-scale capital placement and direct opportunities as non-performing assets and portfolios co

40、me to market to shore up balance sheets.“Discounts to NAV in the listed sector remain high,and well see private equity and similar investors taking advantage of that arbitrage.We expect to see selective take-private scenarios happen in Europe,with investors taking a controlling interest in REITs and

41、 then delisting.”Luke Dawson Managing Director,EMEA Cross Border Capital Markets“From a capital markets perspective,many REITs today are trading well below their implied NAV,which means its difficult to raise capital,especially if you are at the top end of your debt metrics.A more effective way to r

42、aise capital is to privatize or merge with another company.”Emeka Mayes Partner,Head of Capital Markets BrokerageCanadaOur experts viewsOur experts view“Core assets are incredibly difficult to source in many locations.A very attractive option for investment fund managers and capital allocators in ma

43、rkets like Japan is working in partnership with developers to create new core assets from older sites.This is a great strategy that we expect to continue in 2023.”John HowaldExecutive Director,Head of International Capital,APACFOREWORD2023 GLOBAL KEY THEMES:ONETWOTHREEFOURFIVESIXSEVENKEY TAKEAWAYSRE

44、PORT CONTRIBUTORSEIGHT6.A shift from equity to debt.“The speed at which the equity allocators and investment managers are adopting credit opportunity strategies has been a surprise.Theyre deploying across the capital stack,chasing what they perceive to be attractive relative risk/reward versus takin

45、g common equity positions.”Jeff Black U.S.Capital Markets Board of Advisors,Debt&Equity LeadResponses to our survey illustrate how big an impact interest rates are having when it comes to the cost and availability of debt.Globally,76%of investors said the rising cost of debt will have a negative imp

46、act on their real estate strategies in 2023.A further 60%anticipate a reduction in the availability of debt will have negative consequences.As the cost of capital rises,investors are recognizing it can be more advantageous to extend their activities into debt than aim for direct equity investment.We

47、 have witnessed heightened activity and creativity in the debt space and see this evolving,as more investors explore solutions like mezzanine debt,bridge loans and project finance.This will help close any liquidity gaps and recalibrate pricing in the process.Cost of debtPositive impactNo impactNegat

48、ive impactAPACEMEAThe Americas73%78%78%14%13%13%13%9%9%Please rank the following factors in terms of their influence on your ability to pursue your investment strategy during 2023:%of investors who chose how the cost and availability of debt will impact their real estate strategies in 2023.Our exper

49、ts viewsAvailability of debtAPACEMEAThe Americas52%26%22%63%18%19%68%20%12%“Capital continues to be raised for new debt platforms in the UK and Europe,but with an even greater focus on opportunistic and core plus transactions.Senior debt remains readily available,but sponsors need to have strong tra

50、ck records and business plans to match.”Ben Thomason Director,Head of Debt Advisory,UK Source:Colliers 2023 Global Investor SurveyFOREWORD2023 GLOBAL KEY THEMES:ONETWOTHREEFOURFIVESIXSEVENKEY TAKEAWAYSREPORT CONTRIBUTORSEIGHT7.Sectors:A flight to quality and a focus on fundamentals.Office,industrial

51、&logistics and multifamily/BTR assets continue to top the list of preferences globally,but the weighting of interest continues to differ by region.While core assets in top-tier global cities remain the preference,sectors closely connected to changing demographic and economic realities,such as multif

52、amily/BTR,student,and senior housing continue to drive activity away from major cities.This will continue to push investors into second and third-tier cities,particularly in American and European markets.“The flight to quality means the smart investor is really executing plans proactively.A key elem

53、ent to asset management is factoring in capital expenditure(CAPEX)for asset upgrades and repositioning to improve energy efficiency and overall operational costs.”John Marasco Managing Director,Capital Markets&Investment Services,ANZOur experts viewsAPACEMEAThe AmericasEstablished,larger citiesGrowt

54、h tier 2&3 citiesBoth74%55%52%3%7%26%23%39%38%During 2023,what is your city preference when investing in asset classes?Please choose the asset classes you are considering investing in during 2023.%of investors,split by region,choosing their preference on city type.60%of investors chose office.This s

55、ector was the#1 choice in APAC and EMEA.60%of investors chose industrial&logistics.This was also the most popular asset choice last year.48%of investors chose multifamily/BTR.This sector was the#1 choice in the Americas.26%of investors chose retail.27%of investors chose hotel.25%of investors chose s

56、pecialized(alternatives).This sector has become a mainstream option.Average%of investors who chose sectors.For each selection,the%figure indicates the percentage of investors surveyed who chose this specific selection,whereby each investor could choose multiple answers.“Secondary markets boomed duri

57、ng the pandemic,and we see continued investor interest in smaller cities.Alternative assets like life science that are viewed as recession proof will move to the forefront.”Adam Jacobs Senior National Director,Research,Canada24%of investors chose land.Source:Colliers 2023 Global Investor SurveyFOREW

58、ORD2023 GLOBAL KEY THEMES:ONETWOTHREEFOURFIVESIXSEVENKEY TAKEAWAYSREPORT CONTRIBUTORSEIGHTWhile there will be renewed focus on opportunistic plays in 2023,multifamily/BTR and industrial&logistics assets will be most in favor as defensive asset strategies persist.Supply and demand fundamentals in bot

59、h of these sectors are key.Under-supplied housing markets and low vacancy rates across industrial assets help underpin capital values and support income growth.Equally,industrial&logistics assets will continue to absorb market share,with investor interest in first-mile assets on the rise as the near

60、-shoring of Foreign Direct Investment(FDI)becomes a reality.For multifamily/BTR assets,greater attention needs to be placed on operational expenditure(OPEX),especially as yields/cap rates are often most resistant to change in this sector.Operational-intensive assets will require closer scrutiny as t

61、he cost base rises.This was one of the biggest concerns of investors going into 2023,alongside the rising cost of creating new assets.Defensive assets driving activityOur experts views“The living sector is well protected right now.Lower mortgage availability and higher interest rates,coupled with an

62、 uncertain economic outlook,act as a demand boost to the institutional,residential multifamily leasing markets.This trend often lasts beyond the short-term horizon.”Chris PilgrimDirector,Global Capital Markets“The U.S.is vastly under-housed and that is not solved in a short amount of time.This is es

63、pecially the case in a higher interest rate environment where the cost of building materials is rising and labor shortages are prevalent.”Aaron JodkaDirector of Research,U.S.Capital MarketsLight industrial/FlexCold/Dark storageLast-mile distributionBig box/Warehouse7%5%15%11%15%16%12%16%25%25%26%Whi

64、ch types of industrial&logistics assets do you intend to invest in during 2023?2023202227%77%The top two market factors investors cited as having a negative impact on their real estate strategies in 2023.%of investors who will be investing in industrial&logistics assets during 2023.Rising constructi

65、on costs Higher asset operating costs 85%Container terminal(Truck park)Industrial park/ManufacturingSource:Colliers 2023 Global Investor SurveyFOREWORD2023 GLOBAL KEY THEMES:ONETWOTHREEFOURFIVESIXSEVENKEY TAKEAWAYSREPORT CONTRIBUTORSEIGHT8.Sustainability driving decisions,as opposed to an afterthoug

66、ht.Closely connected to the flight to quality is the growing emphasis investors are placing on environmental,social,and governance(ESG)criteria and ratings.This is not just for regulatory and reputational reasons but increasingly in response to occupier demands and to balance out asset operational c

67、osts longer-term.Investors are focusing on assets with strong sustainability characteristics,with expectations these will command a premium.Non-compliant assets will increasingly be confined to discounted territory and targeted for redevelopment as disposal and acquisition strategies are activated.A

68、re you taking action on the environmental performance of your assets?45%of investors intend to dispose of up to 20%of their portfolio in the next five years.5%of respondents chose N/A in 2023 and 4%in 2022Only a considerationCurrently being integratedCompleted full asset assessmentCapital program,di

69、sposals&acquisitions strategy in place20%33%25%17%10%30%34%21%+7%20222023Our experts views“Theres a dynamic shift in peoples thinking around ESG across APAC and it is not just from office tenants.If you go to a financier,a tenant,or an investor,ESG is one of the major criteria being enquired for mov

70、ing from a nice to have consideration to a need to have.”Joanne HendersonNational Director,Research,Australia Investors environmental considerations in 2023(%)“We have seen some investors make clear decisions on where and what to buy,indeed where and what not to buy,based on their ESG-informed inves

71、tment strategy.Theyve looked at their portfolio and they know certain buildings are going to be a problem going forward,so they have already started to offload them.The rationalizing of portfolios as investors step away from non-ESG compliant assets will be a key source of market activity over the n

72、ext few years.Discounts on non-compliant buildings are inevitable.”Damian HarringtonDirector,Head of Research,Global Capital Markets&EMEASource:Colliers 2023 Global Investor SurveySource:Colliers 2023 Global Investor SurveyFOREWORD2023 GLOBAL KEY THEMES:ONETWOTHREEFOURFIVESIXSEVENKEY TAKEAWAYSREPORT

73、 CONTRIBUTORSEIGHTKey TakeawaysThe velocity and timing of market stabilization,repricing,and recovery will differ across markets and sectors in 2023.But some markets may move backward before they move forward.Core assets to prevail,but non-core will be a source of some distress.We expect to see some

74、 creative routes to market in the year ahead through the curation of debt,platforms,privatization,and project management.Understanding and managing the multitude of rising cost pressures impacting real estate is critical.The cost of capital is only one part of the equation.Colliers consensus is that

75、 the stabilization of the global real estate market will take hold by mid-2023.Colliers will be continually tracking the key themes presented in this report.Keep an eye out during 2023,as we will be releasing additional reports based on these subjects on a regional and global level.FOREWORD2023 GLOB

76、AL KEY THEMES:ONETWOTHREEFOURFIVESIXSEVENKEY TAKEAWAYSREPORT CONTRIBUTORSEIGHTReport contributorsOur Colliers Capital Markets Experts listed to the right were interviewed between October 24-November 14,2022.It is their expert views and knowledge,alongside our global investor survey,that have shaped

77、this report.If you have any questions regarding the content within this report or if you wish to discuss how we can help you with your real estate investment needs in 2023 and beyond,please reach out to one of our experts or contact Damian Harrington or Alison Hunter.Local Knowledge,Global Connectio

78、nsDamian HarringtonDirector,Head of Research,Global Capital Markets&EMEAE:Alison HunterDirector,Head of Operations,Global Capital MarketsE:Tony HorrellHead of Global Capital Markets&CEO UK&Ireland Chris PilgrimDirector,Global Capital MarketsDamian HarringtonDirector,Head of Research,Global Capital M

79、arkets&EMEAGlobal Capital MarketsJohn HowaldExecutive Director,Head of International Capital,APAC John MarascoManaging Director,Capital Markets&Investment Services,ANZ Joanne HendersonNational Director,Research,AustraliaLachlan MacGillivrayManaging Director,Asia Pacific,Retail Capital MarketsRichard

80、 Kirke International Sales Director,Capital Markets,New ZealandAdam WoodwardHead of Office Capital Markets,AustraliaKaren WalesNational Director,Asia Pacific,Hotels Transaction ServicesJimmy GuDeputy Managing Director,Capital Markets&Investment Services,ChinaJason YangDeputy Managing Director,Capita

81、l Markets&Investment Services,ChinaHisakazu Iso Deputy Managing Director&Head,Capital Markets&Investment Services,JapanPiyush Gupta Managing Director,Capital Markets&Investment Services,IndiaWeiLeng Tang Managing Director,Head of Capital Markets SingaporeThomas Chak Co-Head Capital Markets&Investmen

82、t Services,Hong KongSungwook Cho Executive Director,Capital Markets&Investment Services,KoreaDerek Huang Deputy Managing Director,Head of Capital Markets&Investment Services,TaiwanPaul Chua Director,Capital Markets&Investment Services,PhilippinesGavin BishopManaging Director,Industrial,Australia APA

83、CLuke DawsonManaging Director,Head of EMEA Cross Border Capital MarketsRichard DivallDirector,EMEA Cross Border Capital MarketsEdward PlumleyDirector,EMEA Cross Border Capital MarketsPaddy Allen Director,National Capital Markets,UKDr van LeeuwenExecutive Director,Capital Markets&Agency,NetherlandsAl

84、berto DazManaging Director,Capital Markets,SpainSilvio SancilioHead of Capital Markets,ItalyChristian KadelHead of Capital Markets,GermanySimon GlennHead of Central London Capital MarketsAndrew ThomasHead of International Capital Markets,LondonBen ThomasonDirector,Head of Debt Advisory,UKDavid Amste

85、rdamPresident,U.S.Capital Markets&Northeast Region Aaron JodkaDirector or Research,U.S.Capital Markets Frank PetzU.S.Capital Markets Board of Advisors,Office LeadJeff BlackU.S.Capital Markets Board of Advisors,Debt&Equity LeadMichael KendallU.S.Capital Markets Board of Advisors,Industrial LeadEmeka

86、MayesPartner,Head of Capital Markets Brokerage,CanadaAdam JacobsSenior National Director,Research,CanadaAyesha ShafiqSenior Vice President,Capital Markets,CanadaEMEAThe AmericasFOREWORD2023 GLOBAL KEY THEMES:ONETWOTHREEFOURFIVESIXSEVENKEY TAKEAWAYSREPORT CONTRIBUTORSEIGHTThis report has been prepare

87、d by Colliers for advertising and general information only.Colliers makes no guarantees,representations or warranties of any kind,expressed or implied,regarding the information including,but not limited to,warranties of content,accuracy and reliability.Any interested party should undertake their own

88、 inquiries as to the accuracy of the information.Colliers excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms,conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from.This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers and/or its

89、 licensor(s).2022.All rights reserved.This communication is not intended to cause or induce breach of an existing listing agreement.Annual revenueCountries we operate inAssets under managementLease/sale transactionsSquare feet managedProfessionals$4.6B63$92B53,0002B18,000All statistics are for 2022,are in U.S.dollars and include affiliates