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1、2022EXECUTIVE SUMMARYTHE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE AGRI-FOOD SECTOR IN SOUTHEAST ASIAThe economic impact of the agri-food sector in Southeast AsiaECONOMIC IMPACT OF AGRI-FOOD SECTOR ON KEY SOUTHEAST ASIAN MARKETS IN 2021Agricultural productionF&B manufacturingF&B distributionThailandMalaysiaGDP contrib

2、ution$129 billionGDP contribution$92 billionTax revenue$22.6 billionTrade position$19.9 billion surplus25%of total GDP.25%of total GDP.48%of total employment.35%of total employment.Employment18.0 million jobsEmployment5.4 million jobs$55 billion$43 billion12.3 million2.0 million$46 billion$28 billio

3、n2.1million1.1million$28 billion$21 billion3.6 million2.3 millionTotals may not sum due to rounding$=US dollar throughout this reportTotal impact across all 5 countriesGDP contribution$808.7 billionEmployment126.1 million jobsTax revenue$8.9 billionTrade position$9.4 billion surplusThe economic impa

4、ct of the agri-food sector in Southeast AsiaVietnamGDP contribution$95 billionTax revenue$12.3 billionTrade position$4.2 billion surplus26%of total GDP.48%of total employment.Employment23.5 million jobs$67 billion17.9 million$17 billion2.5 million$11 billion3.1 millionIndonesiaGDP contribution$366 b

5、illion31%of total GDP.47%of total employment.Employment61.7 million jobs$191 billion39.3 million$124 billion9.8 million$51 billion12.5 millionTax revenue$42.0 billionTrade position$18.7 billion surplusPhilippinesGDP contribution$127 billion32%of total GDP.40%of total employment.Employment17.6 millio

6、n jobs$51 billion11.1 million$59 billion3.8 million$17 billion2.7 millionTax revenue$17.3 billionTrade position$7.9 billion deficit4The economic impact of the agri-food sector in Southeast AsiaEXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe Southeast Asian economy is enjoying an economic revival in 2022 as borders reopen,soci

7、al distancing measures are ratcheted back,and businesses return to more normal operations in the transition to a post-pandemic environment.Sat at the heart of this regional economy is the agri-food industry,which has played a crucial role in the regions resilience throughout the past two years of th

8、e pandemic and is central to its future trajectory,too.The sector not only puts food on the table for the regions enormous population,but also provides income and employment for a large portion of its workforce and a multitude of opportunities to businesses at each stage of the agri-food value chain

9、.As the industry looks forward,it faces significant risks on the horizon,that threaten its growth.From inflationary pressures to challenging demographics and policy risks,the implications matter not only to the livelihoods of agri-food industry entrepreneurs and employees butgiven the size of the se

10、ctor and its role in supply chainsthe wider economy too.Oxford Economics was commissioned by Food Industry Asia(FIA)to assess the total economic impact in 2021 of the agri-food sectors in five major Southeast Asian economies:Indonesia,Malaysia,the Philippines,Thailand,and Vietnam.In doing so,we unpa

11、ck the importance of the sectors contribution to the wider Southeast Asian economy,and its future trajectory.THE AGRI-FOOD SECTORS ECONOMIC IMPACTThis study builds on the foundations of our previous collaboration with Food Industry Asia in 2021,in which we redefined the agri-food sector to include t

12、hree components of the food value chain:agricultural production;food and beverage(F&B)manufacturing;and F&B distribution(including wholesale,retail and hospitality services).In 2021,the agri-food sector contributed USD 808.7 billion to the five Southeast Asian economies in our study(see Fig 1).This

13、impact is 21%higher,in real terms,than it was in 2015the first year of our analysis.In addition,the sector is also responsible for USD 104 billion in tax revenues across the five countries,made up mostly of corporate and income taxes.In Indonesia,the sector contributed USD 366.3 billion to the econo

14、my in 2021,equivalent to 31%of GDP.In Malaysia,it contributed USD 92.0 billion to the economy in 2021,equivalent to 25%of GDP.In the Philippines,the agri-food sector contributed USD 126.7 billion to the economy in 2021,equivalent to 32%of GDP.US$809 bnAgri-food sector contribution to 2021 GDP across

15、 Indonesia,Malaysia,the Philippines,Thailand,and Vietnam.5The economic impact of the agri-food sector in Southeast Asia In Thailand,the sector contributed USD 128.6 billion to the economy in 2021,equivalent to 25%of GDP.In Vietnam,it contributed USD 95.1 billion to the economy in 2021,equivalent to

16、26%of GDP.Fig.1:Contribution of the agri-food sector to GDP,2021 As well as contributing this large share of the regions GDP,the agri-food sector plays an unrivalled role in Southeast Asian labour markets.It sustained around 126.8 million jobs in 2021 across the five countries featured in our study,

17、representing more than 45%of the workforce in Indonesia,Thailand and Vietnam(see Fig 2).Fig.2:Contribution of the agri-food sector to jobs,2021126.8 millionTotal number of jobs supported by the agri-food sector across the five Southeast Asian economies.US$104 bnTax revenues supported by the agri-foo

18、d sector in Indonesia,Malaysia,the Philippines,Thailand,and Vietnam.Billion US$,2021 prices,equivalent shares of national GDP in parenthesisSource:Oxford Economics0IndonesiaPhilippinesMalaysiaThailandVietnam50100150200250300350450400Agricultural production totalFood and beverage manufacturing totalF

19、ood and beverage distribution19151556743124594617285117281121366(31%)127(32%)129(25%)95(26%)92(25%)Employment,millions,shares of national employment in bracketsSource:Oxford Economics0IndonesiaPhilippinesThailandVietnamMalaysiaAgricultural production totalFood and beverage manufacturing totalFood an

20、d beverage distribution1020304050607039111218104231333362(47%)18(40%)18(48%)24(48%)2125(35%)6The economic impact of the agri-food sector in Southeast AsiaEVOLUTION OF THE AGRI-FOOD SECTOR AND THE IMPACT OF COVID-19The Covid-19 pandemic affected the agri-food sector in different ways across Southeast

21、 Asian economies,according to the local context and conditions on the ground.In Indonesia and Malaysia,the sectors strong growth rate was slowed considerably in 2020 as a result of physical distancing measures and the severe disruption to travel and tourism.In Thailand and the Philippines,the sector

22、s economic footprint shrank so significantly that year,it has yet to regain its pre-Covid value.In Vietnam,after handling the impacts of Covid adeptly in the first year,the agri-food sectors contribution to GDP stagnated in 2021,under the harsher effects of the Delta variant.Across all Southeast Asi

23、an markets,the severe and sudden restrictions to travel and tourism meant that F&B distribution was by far the worst affected part of the agri-food supply chain.The sector is enjoying a resurgence this year,with the reopening of borders and hospitality venues,but in every country in our study,its ec

24、onomic footprint was still considerably lagging pre-Covid levels,in 2021.In fact,the resilience of the sector throughout the pandemic and its recovery thereafter have been driven most strongly by agricultural production and F&B manufacturing.In Indonesia,Malaysia,and Vietnam,the GDP contribution of

25、these sectors continued to grow year-on-year throughout the crisis in real USD terms.Only in the Philippines is the economic footprint of the agricultural production and F&B manufacturing still smaller in 2021 than it was in 2019.The agri-food sectors of all countries in the study have been characte

26、rised by a sustained period of labour productivity growth in recent years.Generally speaking,the sectors GDP contribution has grown rapidly against a fairly stable base of employees.This productivity growth was particularly significant in Vietnam the country with traditionally the lowest GDP footpri

27、nt per worker in our study,but one that is quickly catching up.Southeast Asia is particularly vulnerable to the threat of climate change,in particular with regards to agricultural productivity.For this reason,continued investment in new technologies and techniques across the agri-food sector to impr

28、ove the productivity and sustainability of food production and distribution processes are a key component of the green transition,as recognised by the UN Climate Change Conference in 2021.The agri-food sectors of all countries in the study have been characterised by a sustained period of labour prod

29、uctivity growth in recent years.Across all Southeast Asian markets,the severe and sudden restrictions to travel and tourism meant that F&B distribution was by far the worst affected part of the agri-food supply chain.7The economic impact of the agri-food sector in Southeast AsiaOUTLOOK FOR AGRI-FOOD

30、 DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIADespite a challenging global environment,Oxford Economics forecasts a continued economic recovery in Southeast Asia in the next five years,which will fuel demand for food and beverages.Despite inflationary pressures,we expect real wage growth for every country in our study i

31、n 2022 except for Thailand(where wages will outpace inflation from 2023 onwards),thanks to the ongoing economic recovery raising the demand for labour and giving workers extra bargaining power.The pace of the tourism revival(dependent crucially on the continued relaxation of border measures by both

32、source and destination countries)will play a key role in the agri-food sectors performance,as higher spending returns to hospitality services.We forecast the number of tourist visitors to the region to rise from 3.1 million in 2021 to 38.7 million in 2022.Although remaining well short of the 123.8 m

33、illion tourists entering the region in 2019,this rebound will have ripple effects in Southeast Asias tourism-centric economies,supporting the broader recovery in domestic demand.The regions longer-term F&B demand outlook is also supported by rising prosperity and living standards at home.Nevertheles

34、s,there are significant risks on the horizon for the agri-food sector,not least four major macroeconomic challenges that could hinder the sectors progress.The first is the impact of rising inflation.The Russia and Ukraine war has driven commodity prices sharply higher across a range of commodity typ

35、es,at the same time as we have seen increasing measures to restrict food trade.As spending on food and beverages to consume at home accounts for a relatively large portion of household budgets in Southeast Asian countries,average households are highly impacted by this shift in global commodity price

36、s.This is especially true in Thailand,the Philippines and Vietnam,where food accounts for 36-37%of the consumer price index basket of goods and services,although at 19%and 28%respectively food is also a high proportion of total spend in both Indonesia and Malaysia.The second challenge is demographic

37、.The decline in the working age population in some Southeast Asian countries,and the continued allure of the cities for young rural workers mean labour market conditions may deteriorate for the agricultural sector in particular,necessitating new and faster solutions to grow productivity.Despite a ch

38、allenging global environment,Oxford Economics forecasts a continued economic recovery in Southeast Asia in the next five years.The regions longer-term F&B demand outlook is also supported by rising prosperity and living standards at home.8The economic impact of the agri-food sector in Southeast Asia

39、The third challenge is the threat of currency instability that has heightened in the past year.This could pose a particular problem for countries that are running large fiscal deficits(specifically the Philippines)or have historically been prone to running trade deficits(specifically Indonesia).Thes

40、e countries may face greater volatility and uncertainty in imported input costs,as well as fluctuating prices for major agricultural exports.Finally,as discussed in our 2021 publication with FIA,“Fiscal Risks in the food sector in Asia after COVID-19”,governments in the region are focused on balanci

41、ng their books after the extraordinary fiscal policy measures of the pandemic and rising interest rates.The agri-food sector therefore faces a potential policy risk from new taxes on food and beverage consumptionparticularly in countries where value added tax rates are currently lowor reductions in

42、public spending in countries where agricultural subsidies are currently high.Each of these risks could also hinder the sectors future recovery and growth.Overall,whilst the macroeconomic drivers for demand in the agri-food sector look robust across the region,the conditions and emerging risks on the

43、 supply-side of the industry could continue to create challenges in the years to come.Governments in the region are focused on balancing their books after the extraordinary fiscal policy measures of the pandemic and rising interest rates.9The economic impact of the agri-food sector in Southeast Asia

44、Trisnoandcompany/S10The economic impact of the agri-food sector in Southeast AsiaABOUT OXFORD ECONOMICSOxford Economics was founded in 1981 as a commercial venture with Oxford Universitys business college to provide economic forecasting and modelling to UK companies and financial institutions expand

45、ing abroad.Since then,we have become one of the worlds foremost independent global advisory firms,providing reports,forecasts and analytical tools on more than 200 countries,250 industrial sectors,and 7,000 cities and regions.Our best-in-class global economic and industry models and analytical tools

46、 give us an unparalleled ability to forecast external market trends and assess their economic,social and business impact.Headquartered in Oxford,England,with regional centres in New York,London,Frankfurt,and Singapore,Oxford Economics has offices across the globe in Belfast,Boston,Cape Town,Chicago,

47、Dubai,Dublin,Hong Kong,Los Angeles,Melbourne,Mexico City,Milan,Paris,Philadelphia,Stockholm,Sydney,Tokyo,and Toronto.We employ 400 full-time staff,including more than 250 professional economists,industry experts,and business editorsone of the largest teams of macroeconomists and thought leadership s

48、pecialists.Oxford Economics is a key adviser to corporate,financial and government decision-makers and thought leaders.Our worldwide client base now comprises over 1,500 international organisations,including leading multinational companies and financial institutions;key government bodies and trade a

49、ssociations;and top universities,consultancies,and think tanks.ABOUT FOOD INDUSTRY ASIAFood Industry Asia(FIA)was formed in 2010 to enable major food and beverage manufacturers and ingredients suppliers to speak with one voice on complex issues such as health and nutrition,food safety,sustainability

50、,and regulations and trade.From its base in Singapore,FIA seeks to enhance the industrys role as a trusted partner and collaborator in the development of science-based policy across Asia.To do so means acting as a knowledge hub for Asias national industry associations and affiliated groups,to suppor

51、t with their engagement of public bodies and other stakeholders across the region.August 2022All data shown in tables and charts are Oxford Economics own data,except where otherwise stated and cited in footnotes,and are copyright Oxford Economics Ltd.The modelling and results presented here are base

52、d on information provided by third parties,upon which Oxford Economics has relied in producing its report and forecasts in good faith.Any subsequent revision or update of those data will affect the assessments and projections shown.To discuss the report further please contact:James Lambert Oxford Ec

53、onomics 6 Battery Road.#38-05.Singapore 049909Matt Kovac matt.kovacfoodindustry.asia Food Industry Asia 33 Mohamed Sultan Road,#03-02,Singapore 238977 Cover photo:Tavarius/S11The economic impact of the agri-food sector in Southeast AsiaExtarz/SGlobal headquartersOxford Economics Ltd Abbey House 121

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