《仲量聯行：2023年亞太地區房地產市場展望報告（英文版）（24頁）.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《仲量聯行：2023年亞太地區房地產市場展望報告（英文版）（24頁）.pdf（24頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、Asia Pacific 2023Confronting challenges,selective opportunities Asia Pacific 2023/Confronting challenges,selective opportunitiesContentsKey takeaways 3Economy 5Capital Markets 8ESG 11Office 14Logistics&Industrial 17Retail 19Hotels 21Conclusion 23Asia Pacific 2023/Confronting challenges,selective opp

2、ortunities3JLLKey takeawaysAsia Pacific brightness amid the gloom?Macro headwinds cast a shadow on the outlook for the global economy that will slow,but not halt growth in this region.This will test the resiliency of real estate markets as decision-making is likely to slow.However,this situation wil

3、l create opportunities for market participants to position themselves for a likely recovery in the second half of 2023.Are companies willing to pay more to rent green space?Accelerating commitments to net zero will see corporates being more selective about their real estate solutions.Our analysis hi

4、ghlights this polarisation with green-certified buildings across 11 major Asian cities commanding a rental premium of up to 28%.Is the office dead?Up to 77%of corporate real estate leaders surveyed in Asia Pacific agree that the office will remain central to their organisations long-term business st

5、rategy and the spotlight is on premium buildings to meet their evolving requirements.Is the strong run over for logistics&industrial?The story for logistics&industrial remains one of growth underpinned by structural tailwinds.The investible universe is projected to expand by USD 36 billion in 2023,a

6、s nearly 26 million sqm of supply comes on stream to meet growing demand.Will there be a continued pivot in retail to experience?A refocus of consumer priorities in the post-pandemic world will see the retail landscape continue to evolve.A bigger emphasis will be placed on elevating the experience t

7、o drive greater customer engagement and encourage foot traffic.Will the hotel recovery pause?The path ahead for hotels will undoubtedly be bumpy but operators will pivot to building more sustainable strategies.Tailwinds from countries reopening look supportive of tourism activity in the region,while

8、 weakened currencies could provide additional impetus to momentum.1236745How much will investment transactions contract by?Investment volumes are expected to moderate by 5-10%in 2023 following a projected decline of 25%this year though it is likely to be a tale of two halves as a dissipation of unce

9、rtainty will begin to shore up investor confidence,fuelling a pick-up in transaction activity.Asia Pacific 2023/Confronting challenges,selective opportunitiesJLLJLL4Japan Yen weakness coupled with low interest rates to entice offshore investors InvestmentSingapore Safe-haven reputation and sound pro

10、perty fundamentals to attract capitalAustralia Highly transparent,low beta characteristics to draw core investorsJLLTop investment picks(country)Top sector rental picks(markets)SeoulTight vacancy,healthy demandand inflation pressures to push up rentsTaipeiLow vacancy,limited supply and stable demand

11、 to support rising rentsSeoulStrengthening leasing activity,low vacancy and tourism recovery to bolster rentsSingaporeReopening tailwinds to underlie spending growth,sustaining rent momentumHo Chi Minh CityImproving demand and new supply to drive robust rental performancePerthIncentives to edge lowe

12、r and face rents increase amid firming demand MelbourneElevated demand and limited availability to sustain rent uptrend South VietnamHigh-quality completions to underpin a strong uplif in rentsSydneyTight market conditions to exert upward rental pressure OficeRetailIndustrialAsia Pacific 2023/Confro

13、nting challenges,selective opportunities5JLLAsia Pacific in 2023Asia Pacifics economy entered 2022 from a position of strength,fuelled by the wavering of most COVID-19 curbs,an uptick of social engagement and the rebound of travel.Twelve months later,sentiment has shifted and the outlook for the yea

14、r ahead is clouded with uncertainty.Optimism fuelled by the prospect of the end of the pandemic has slowly given way to caution amid lingering concerns about inflation,interest rates,and unpredictable geopolitics(Figure 1).EconomyAsia Pacific brightness amid the gloom?The ostensible result being the

15、 global economy slowing(+1.3%in 2023 according to Oxford Economics)and some major economies outside of Asia Pacific are likely to teeter on the edge of recession although it is likely to be mild and short-lived.While the Asia Pacific region is forecast to weather the storm better(+3.3%in 2023)due to

16、 more resilient domestic demand,it will not be left unscathed from the broader challenges.As a result,policymakers will need to delicately balance support measures against exacerbating pressure points.That said,Chinas potential reopening could bode well for an upward revision in growth forecasts.Asi

17、a Pacific 2023/Confronting challenges,selective opportunities6JLL Will cost pressure continue to build?For much of 2022,it seemed as if Asia Pacific may escape the brunt of the inflation storm facing the rest of the world.However,as the severity of the issue became clearer,inflationary pressure has

18、ramped up across much of the region.While some of the inflationary drivers have eased,the general view remains that the current cycle of high inflation is near a peak and should gradually start to dial back to more moderate levels over the next 12 to 24 months.Will rate hikes become less aggressive?

19、Stubborn inflation,currency depreciation and a hawkish tone by the US Federal Reserve point to many central banks in Asia Pacific,and globally for that matter,keeping on the tightening path until headline inflation displays a clear downtrend.That said,central bankers in this region may not match the

20、 Feds aggressiveness.China and Japan will remain outliers in 2023,where economic slack and relatively subdued inflation have allowed central banks to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance.We foresee no major change in course in Asia Pacifics two largest economies.Will the dollars strength

21、 continue?Both advanced and emerging countries alike have been struggling against the strength of the greenback in 2022,especially as tightening US monetary policy and perceived risks saw capital pivot to the safe-haven status of the USD.Given ongoing uncertainty about the Fed terminal rate,the poss

22、ibility of further softening of currencies against the greenback remains but a likely slowdown in the pace of hikes should cushion against sustained depreciation.Once clearer signs about the end of the Fed tightening cycle emerge,regional currencies should begin a sustained recovery.Figure 1:Real GD

23、P(y-o-y growth in local currency)Source:Oxford Economics,November 20222020202120222023Asia PacificEuropeUSAustraliaChinaIndiaJapan%-8-6-4-20246810Asia Pacific 2023/Confronting challenges,selective opportunities7JLLWhat does this all mean for real estate?The near-term outlook for real estate looks ch

24、allenging,but fraught with opportunities in this region.Any disruption to the economy should prove relatively short and shallow,with activity in the real estate sector reflecting the predicted economic cycle in this region.In our interactions,many market participants are already thinking beyond this

25、 period and planning how to take advantage of any opportunities.Uncertainty to affect decision-makingThe uncertain outlook will weigh on sentiment until there are distinct cues that headwinds are dissipating.Occupier caution could lead to elongated decision-making timetables and,in some cases,possib

26、ly reduced requirements.Likewise,investors and vendors may take pause,seeing deal pipelines stay limited in the near term.Inflation challenge to operational and capital expendituresBroad price increases including energy,labour and materials will translate to higher operational costs.This reality wil

27、l potentially lead to a rethink of space requirements and operational strategies as well as capital enhancement initiatives.We believe price pressures will also force developers to keep a closer eye on project costs and possibly see speculative developments slowed or paused.Investors and developers

28、reassess opportunities and risksRising financing costs will prompt many developers and investors to reevaluate deal economics based on new assumptions.However,the cost of money will not necessarily be felt the same across all markets and sectors.Additionally,currency weakness against the dollar coul

29、d increase the appeal of some markets.JLL forecasts a moderate downturn of 5-10%for 2023 Asia Pacific investment volumes.Asia Pacific 2023/Confronting challenges,selective opportunities8JLLOne of the bigger questions facing the investment market is not whether volumes will decline so much as by how

30、much.Capital MarketsHow much will transactions contract by?There will be sectoral exceptions.The hotel sector is expected to buck the trend with capital flows anticipated to rise 6%in 2023,following a 10-15%increase in 2022,benefitting from border reopening tailwinds(Figure 2).Bid-ask spreads are li

31、kely to remain wide in the near term and drag on price discovery,prolonging deal closures.Concurrently,the difficulty associated with securing equity or debt financing in some markets will add to the challenges.With less engaged vendors and investors,deal pipelines are likely to be constricted until

32、 there are more visible signs that risk levels are stabilising.Viewed more objectively,albeit from a low base as volumes are projected to be down 25%in 2022,as the tumultuous economic and financing conditions weigh on sentiment.20182019202020212022F2023F050100150200USD billion-25%-5%to-10%Asia Pacif

33、ic 2023/Confronting challenges,selective opportunities9JLLAustraliaSingaporeChinaJapanWhat strategies will be popular?Our top investment picksexpansion for traditional asset classes in some markets provide further backing for the investment thesis of alternatives.Value-added strategies are also expe

34、cted to be a preferred route for institutional investors with capital to be deployed in major markets to upgrade office assets to comply with the ever-Figure 2:Asia Pacific investment volumesSource:JLL,November 2022Note:Investment volume figures refer to transactions over USD 5 million(excluding lan

35、d and development sites)Despite a slackening in fundraising activity,momentum is being underpinned by opportunistic strategies as investors look to sectors benefitting from structural tailwinds and higher potential returns namely data centres,logistics,multifamily,and in a slew of scheduled greenfie

36、ld projects in emerging markets including India and Southeast Asia.Expectations of yield OfficeLogisticsMultifamilyAsia Pacific 2023/Confronting challenges,selective opportunities10JLLincreasing sustainability targets,and also for the re-purpose of hotel assets to other living uses such as multifami

37、ly or co-living in light of the demographic trends prevailing in the region.Yen weakness coupled with ultra-low interest rates are likely to encourage offshore investors to deploy capital in Japan,where yield spreads are extremely attractive.With some investors set to dispose of portions of large po

38、rtfolios in Japan,this could provide more investment opportunities in the year ahead.Japans multifamily sector will remain popular as investors push deeper,while the recent border reopening should bolster interest in hotels.Logistics demand in China is anticipated to hold up better than other sector

39、s and institutional capital will continue to pile in due to the positive sector outlook.Multifamily is also likely to gain further traction in China given favourable government policies,healthy market fundamentals and a maturing investment environment.The recent launch of rental housing Real Estate

40、Investment Trusts(REITs)is another feather in its cap.Sound property market fundamentals and a safe-haven reputation support the case for Singapore still being a major destination for capital.We view the office sector a top pick given promising long-term rental prospects as well as limited investibl

41、e stock.Tight supply and demand dynamics for Australias logistics sector continue to underpin a solid outlook for rents as well as investor interest.Institutional investors are re-weighting portfolios to assets with high Environmental,Social,and Governance(ESG)credentials and reassessing sector and

42、asset preferences,with logistics being the preferred sector.With increasing corporate commitments around net zero,occupiers are being more selective when deciding what space to occupy and are demanding real estate solutions which are tied to their sustainability ambitions.Asia Pacific 2023/Confronti

43、ng challenges,selective opportunities11JLLCurrently,60%of Fortune 500 companies have sustainability targets in place.ESGAre companies willing to pay more to rent green space?if organisations must meet their net-zero targets.JLL research shows that sustainability credentials,along with location and r

44、ental cost,constitute the top three leasing criteria for corporate real estate leaders.According to JLL research,occupiers in Asia aspire to have market-recognised sustainability certification for at least half of their portfolio by 2025.The current supply of green-certified buildings,which currentl

45、y stands at about 40%With buildings accounting for more than 60%of carbon emissions in cities,urgent action is needed Seoul7%-22%Shanghai4%-10%Singapore4%-9%Chennai4%-12%Mumbai7%-20%Delhi3%-17%Beijing2%-7%Hong Kong7%-28%Bangkok4%-11%Bengaluru5%-19%Guangzhou3%-8%Asia Pacific 2023/Confronting challeng

46、es,selective opportunities12JLLFigure 3:Rental premium for green-certified stock in Asian marketsfor Grade A office stock,is insufficient to meet the ambitious net zero targets set by occupiers.This supply-demand gap is leading to a rental premium for green-certified buildings,with the increment bei

47、ng more pronounced in cities with lower levels of green stock.However,as sustainability regulations ramp up and green stock increases,the narrative is likely to quickly shift from a premium to a discount for buildings unable to meet the new requirements.We found that cities with more availability of

48、 green-certified Grade A office stock have lower rental premiums than those with less availability a clear sign of demand and supply economics at work.In Singapore,where 90%of the Grade A office stock is green,rental premiums stand between 4%and 9%,with the highest rental premium commanded by buildi

49、ngs certified with BCA Green Mark Platinum levels.On the other hand,in Hong Kong,where less than one-third of Grade A office stock is green-certified,we found the rental premium for LEED Platinum buildings inching towards 28%.This,however,is not true for Indian cities.Despite the high availability o

50、f green stock as a percentage of total stock,all Indian cities see an upper premium range in the double-digits.This is largely due to the vast presence of multinationals in the Indian market with ambitious ESG targets,for whom occupancy of green-certified buildings is non-negotiable.To capitalise on

51、 the green momentum,progressive owners are doubling down on net zero carbon interventions in the knowledge that liquidity,pricing,and debt are increasingly influenced by a buildings emissions performance.Owners also recognise that the penalty for buildings failing to meet emissions standards will ri

52、se sharply in the next few years amid ever-tightening regulations that target existing real estate.Asia Pacific 2023/Confronting challenges,selective opportunities13JLLEarly adopters of retrofitting will benefit from resilient and future-fit assets,higher rentals and better prospects for attracting

53、and retaining tenants.Real estate is at the start of its retrofitting journey;this decade will be crucial to kickstart the work that needs to be done.Another important piece of the puzzle for the decarbonisation of real estate is the changing face of the landlord-occupier relationship.It needs to re

54、focus to one centred more on a collaborative partnership.According to JLL research,eight in 10 sustainability professionals in Asia Pacific agree that green leases are essential to facilitating more cooperation on sustainability initiatives and six in 10 believe that green leases will replace conven

55、tional leases by 2025.One of the biggest value drivers for the adoption and execution of green leases is reducing building energy and its associated carbon emissions.According to JLL estimates,approximately 50%to 65%of a buildings energy is used by tenants.For energy efficiencies to be achieved,the

56、owners have a high incentive to talk to the tenants and agree on building performance standards.Green leases focus on reducing overall energy consumption and this translates to overall cost savings,making the green movement ideal for both landlords and tenants alike.Among corporates who have signed

57、green leases in Asia Pacific,seven in 10 highlights cost savings from energy efficiency as the top motivation to sign a green lease.However,true responsibility goes beyond just environmental sustainability.Leasing decisions today need to deliver climate-positive impact along with creating social val

58、ue under the umbrella of good governance.In the future,we foresee more corporates asking for social and governance clauses to be made part of commercial leasing agreements,thus broadening the scope of green leases to responsible leases.In a recent JLL survey of corporate real estate leaders in Asia

59、Pacific,77%agreed that the office will remain central to their organisations long-term ecosystem.Asia Pacific 2023/Confronting challenges,selective opportunities14JLLIt is clear that the office is here to stay but corporates are more focused on the type of space that they occupy than expanding their

60、 total footprint.Flight to quality is a pervasive trend across most markets in Asia Pacific and it is easy to see why:OfficeAre offices here to stay?Health and wellbeing is now the number one priority for Asia Pacific employees,replacing a comfortable salary at the top spot in JLLs Workforce Prefere

61、nces Barometer report.Quality office space allows firms to offer an array of health and wellbeing amenities and ensure employees needs are met.A big part of being able to live a healthier lifestyle is having some degree of flexibility in terms of when and where employees work.The vast majority(85%)o

62、f APAC HR leaders in a 2022 JLL survey Asia Pacific 2023/Confronting challenges,selective opportunities15JLLacknowledged that hybrid/remote policies will be key to attracting and retaining the best talent.High-specification office space also gives firms the flexibility to rethink their workspaces an

63、d incorporate innovative fit-outs,technology,and amenities.These things are especially important as corporates firm up their hybrid strategies in a bid to be future fit.High-quality space is also best suited to facilitate firms sustainability ambitions.By occupying green-certified buildings,opting f

64、or green leases,and retrofitting existing buildings and offices with sustainability features,corporate real estate leaders can accelerate towards their net zero carbon goals through real estate.Consistent with these themes,high-quality,premium assets are significantly outperforming the rest of the m

65、arket as occupiers look to upgrade their space.JLL research data shows that since the onset of the pandemic,leasing demand has been strongest for newer vintage buildings as net absorption in buildings completed in 2010 or later Figure 4:Net absorption by building age since onset of COVID-19(000 sqm)

66、has been orders of magnitude higher than in older buildings.Supply volumes are expected to peak in 2023,meaning that occupiers will continue to have multiple options to consider at new,high-quality buildings and as such,net absorption will be strongest for the newer segment of the market in the comi

67、ng year(Figure 4).And in some markets,upgrade demand has also driven a divergence in like-for-like rent growth since the onset of the pandemic with newer vintage buildings recording stronger rent growth.For example,rents at newer buildings in Singapore are up nearly 1.5%on a like-for-like basis sinc

68、e the emergence of COVID-19 while rents at buildings constructed before the year 2000 are still below pre-pandemic levels.We have observed a similar trend in some markets where rents have declined during the peak of COVID-19 with premium rents falling slower compared to their older peers.We see a si

69、milar trend when narrowing our analysis to Central Business District(CBD)rents and segmenting the market by building grade.Consistent with the flight to quality,rents at Source:JLL-2000200400Pre-1980s1980s1990s2000s2010-presentHong KongShanghaiTokyoThousandsThousandsThousands-1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,0

70、00-50005001,000Asia Pacific 2023/Confronting challenges,selective opportunities16JLLpremium buildings outperformed their Grade A peers.While these observations will come as no surprise to astute observers of office market dynamics,they have meaningful implications for both occupiers and investors.Gl

71、obally,demand is strengthening for space in high-quality buildings,and we expect to see these trends continue over the coming yearTop performers in 2023 Regional rents are expected to rise despite the challenging leasing outlook and vacancy pressures.Another solid rental performance is predicted for

72、 Seoul as tight vacancy and firm demand give landlords the confidence to push rents higher.Perth and Sydney net-effective rents to rise as incentives peak and face rents increase with demand for prime space remaining healthy.Asia Pacific capital markets outlook is somewhat divided,similar to monetar

73、y policy.Seoul prime office assets will continue to attract interest and capital values are forecast to increase with backing coming from favourable supply-demand dynamics and rent growth.While in many emerging markets,including Bengaluru and Hanoi,modest yield compression coupled with rental growth

74、 should underpin rising capital values.Figure 5:Premium vs Grade A rental growth(4Q20-3Q22)Source:JLLGrade APremium Grade-20%-10%0%10%20%30%SeoulSingaporeBengaluruMumbaiNCR DelhiShanghaiBeijingHong KongSydneyTokyoMelbourneTop five rental growth marketsTop five capital value growth markets4.3%Sydney4

75、.5%Bengaluru3.6%Hanoi4.3%Beijing6.8%Seoul7.3%Hanoi5.2%Taipei7.1%Taipei4.7%Perth6.8%Seoul*Rents and capital values pertain to Grade A office in the major submarket in each city.Rent growth is based on net effective rentsJLL estimates 25.9 million sqm of new stock is expected to come on stream in 2023

76、 alone to meet the growing needs.This means that the prime logistics and industrial investible universe may increase by an estimated USD 36 billion in 2023,Asia Pacific 2023/Confronting challenges,selective opportunities17JLLTailwinds for the logistics and industrial sector remain stronger than the

77、headwinds.E-commerce-related demand is holding up and is still expected to be a key long-term driver for warehouse space,particularly in emerging Asia where the growth story has plenty of runway.The favourable long-term prospects have fuelled a building boom in parts of the region.Logistics&Industri

78、alIs the strong run over for logistics&industrial?possibly providing an avenue for investors once relegated to the sidelines because of a lack of available product to enter.That said,rising construction costs and interest rates could lead to a moderation in the future pipeline as projects are potent

79、ially delayed.Asia Pacific 2023/Confronting challenges,selective opportunities18JLLDespite strong supply,there remains a chronic undersupply of prime suitable space in core locations,and this coupled with an expectation of resilient take-up paints a picture of further rental growth despite rising va

80、cancy.The backdrop of undersupply,along with the strong uplift in rents in recent years,should translate through to healthy rent reversion in many markets.Sydney and Melbourne,for example,are forecast to show a+25%rent reversion in 2023,while rents are projected to show an upward reversion of betwee

81、n 5%and 10%in Singapore,Beijing,and Tokyo.The story of rising rents along with broader inflationary pressure is supporting the case for greater use of automation and technology to help reduce operational costs and increase efficiency.This is not just a theme for 2023,but central to a longer-term str

82、uctural rethink of operations.The size of the global warehouse automation market is set to rise from USD 14 billion in 2020 to USD 26.2 billion by 2025(LogisticsIQ;William Blair;Statista estimates;ID 1094202).This equates to a 13.4%compound annual growth rate(CAGR),which is significantly higher than

83、 the 8.7%CAGR in the previous five-year period.Top performers in 2023 Rapid rent expansion is forecast to continue in Australia.The market will likely remain very tight,with a signification proportion of upcoming supply already pre-committed.The uptrend in rents should persist in Southeast Asia,led

84、by double-digit growth in South Vietnam.However,much of this uplift will be attributable to the availability of higher quality stock A diverging yield cycle is impacting the capital value outlook.Yield decompression in Australia may lead to limited growth;however,markets where yields are expected to

85、 continue to compress,albeit moderately,should outperform in 2023.Top five rental growth marketsTop five capital value growth markets4.5%Singapore4.5%Singapore3.6%Greater Seoul3.8%Hong Kong12.0%Sydney7.4%Southeast Asia8.0%Melbourne6.7%Beijing4.7%Southeast Asia5.6%Tokyo*Major markets/sub-regions;Sydn

86、ey and Melbourne are net face rent,net effective rent otherwise Simple average of Greater Jakarta,Greater Kuala Lumpur,Greater Bangkok,North Vietnam,and South VietnamA continual return to experiences driven by consumers preference for in-person activities is expected to persist and underpin a spendi

87、ng recovery.Asia Pacific 2023/Confronting challenges,selective opportunities19JLLAfter major upheaval to everyday life during the pandemic and a backdrop of uncertainty,consumers will be more intentional and mindful about consumption choices with an eye on newfound values and motivations.RetailWill

88、there be a continued pivot to experience?We expect a healthy rebound in spending in Asia Pacific across various consumer segments including clothing and footwear as well as household goods in 2023,particularly given that shoppers are keen to release their pent-up demand for retail spending after a y

89、ears of mobility restrictions.Notably,spending growth for service-related sectors is forecast to outpace goods-related segments,a testament to consumers stronger preferences for experiences over material goods.Asia Pacific 2023/Confronting challenges,selective opportunities20JLLBoth mall owners and

90、retailers will look to continue to adjust their business strategies to adapt to these trends in consumer behaviour.Retail landlords have been reimagining their malls to make them more interactive and experience-oriented for shoppers.Strategies include the use of innovation and technology to improve

91、visitors experiences,such as the deployment of smart displays and smart sensors to provide an immersive shopping experience.Incorporating green space and parkland for a relaxing ambience has been another landlord strategy to draw in shoppers.Mall owners across the region have also been curating tena

92、nt mixes towards more experience-based operators,such as food and beverage,entertainment,and health and wellness businesses.Retailers will further adjust to an evolving landscape by transforming their physical stores into locations that are more than just a point of purchase.For example,some busines

93、ses have injected more experiential elements into the shopping journey by using augmented reality technology,offering personalised service and frictionless checkout.Others have focused on enhancing the social aspect of the retail experience by including caf or exhibition spaces within their stores,h

94、elping to promote engagement.Even for retailers whose core products are physical goods,transforming their stores to be more service-oriented,be it offering a seamless omnichannel experience or providing troubleshooting or repair services,will add tremendous value to their customers and provide a com

95、petitive advantage in the marketplace.Top performers in 2023 Retail recovery is likely to drive rent growth in Southeast Asian cities such as Ho Chi Minh City,Singapore and Jakarta,with Ho Chi Minh City leading with double-digit rent growth.Rents in Hong Kong are also expected to rebound in 2023 as

96、market uncertainty eases and confidence returns,especially as the border with the rest of the world continues to reopen.Southeast Asian cities are expected to see the strongest growth in capital values in 2023,as yields are expected to continue to compress in these markets while the rest of Asia Pac

97、ific sees relatively stable or even decompressing yields.Ho Chi Minh City is expected to see the largest growth in capital values driven by strong rent growth as well as tightening yields.Top five rental growth marketsTop five capital value growth markets3.7%Hong Kong4.0%Jakarta3.0%Jakarta3.9%Seoul1

98、5.6%Ho Chi Minh City19.9%Ho Chi Minh City3.9%Seoul5.5%Hanoi3.9%Singapore5.1%Kuala Lumpur*Rents and capital values pertain to prime shopping centres.Since the second quarter of 2022,there has been a disconnect between the recovery that we are seeing in tourism demand versus the headwinds permeating g

99、lobally.This mismatch has added to the predicament facing tourism operators as they try to formulate strategies to the sustain momentum of the nascent recovery.Asia Pacific 2023/Confronting challenges,selective opportunities21JLLHotelsWill the recovery pause?encouraging industry participants from to

100、urism agencies to hotel operators to try to broaden source markets.There is an understanding of the need to build a more resilient industry.Governments are exploring avenues such as improving flight connectivity to encompass new markets and regions,while hotel operators are adjusting products and op

101、erations as well as curating focused marketing campaigns to appeal to new customers.The aim of all of this is to lay the foundations for the transformation to a model of sustainable growth.The continuous absence of Chinese tourists,which were the largest spenders on global outbound tourism pre-pande

102、mic,as well as other key Asian markets during the first half of the year,is Asia Pacific 2023/Confronting challenges,selective opportunities22JLLFigure 6:Deferred hotel projects in Asia PacificAn additional element creating a quandary for hotel operators is the large volume of supply in the pipeline

103、.The pandemic significantly slowed down new openings across the region,with an estimated 126,000 deferred rooms in the pipeline as of September 2022.Now that borders are reopening,a large number of new hotels will hit the market in addition to those that underwent asset enhancement during the pandem

104、ic.This is likely to cumulate in intensified competitive pressures given the smaller number of tourist arrivals compared to when hotel projects were originally planned.All in all,these tensions may add downward pressure on rates and occupancy.Fortunately,a continued reopening in Asia Pacific and ref

105、ocus on consumer spending priorities post-pandemic should provide positive tailwinds for the tourism industry even if economies are under increased pressure.The World Travel&Tourism Council expects that the regions travel industry will continue to gain traction with a positive growth forecast for 20

106、23.Weak currencies may provide additional motivation for foreign tourists to take advantage of their increased spending power.050,000100,000150,00020182019YTD Sep 202220202021Number of roomsCAGR:+20%Source:Smith Travel Research(STR)23JLLAsia Pacific 2023/Confronting challenges,selective opportunitie

107、sConclusionUncertainty will inevitably influence decision-making and activity levels,with the start of 2023 likely to be on the weakside.However,there are reasons for cautious optimism amid growing cues that inflation pressures are easing,and this may provide the necessary motive for policymakers to

108、 pivot to a less aggressive stance.A move in this direction would go a long way in calming business and household concerns and,for the real estate industry,allow market participants to refocus on to the positive long-term prospects that this region holds.Asia Pacific1 Paya Lebar Link,#10-08 PLQ2Sing

109、apore 408533tel+65 6220 .sgAbout JLLJLL(NYSE:JLL)is a leading professional services firm that specialises in real estate and investment management.JLL shapes the future of real estate for a better world by using the most advanced technology to create rewarding opportunities,amazing spaces and sustai

110、nable real estate solutions for our clients,our people and our communities.JLL is a Fortune 500 company with annual revenue of$19.4 billion,operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of more than 102,000 as of September 30,2022.JLL is the brand name,and a registered trademark,of Jones La

111、ng LaSalle Incorporated.For further information,visit Peter GuevarraDirector,Research ConsultancyAsia PMarina BraccianiSenior Research AssociateAsia PTeddy LuSenior Manager,Research ConsultancyAsia PAdvisoryCapital MarketsStuart CrowCEO,Capital MarketsAsia PWork DynamicsMarina KrishnanDivision Presi

112、dent,Work DynamicsAsia PSusheel KoulDivision President,Work DynamicsAsia PResearchRoddy AllanChief Research OfficerAsia PPamela AmblerHead of Investor IntelligenceAsia PJames TaylorHead of Work Dynamics Research Asia PKamya Miglani Head of ESG ResearchAsia Pacific Lee FongDirector,Research Consultancy Asia P Christopher ClausenDirector,Research ConsultancyAsia P