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1、COST OF LIVING CRISISNordic Consumer Sentiment 2022 November 2022By Nanna Gelebo,David Sandberg,Fanny Sjberg,Emil Stamp,Andreas Malby,John Dannberg,Magnus Proesch,Michael Stahle and Jacob Ziesler Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important cha

2、llenges and capture their greatest opportunities.BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963.Today,we work closely with clients to embrace a transformational approach aimed at benefiting all stakeholdersempowering organizations to grow,build sustainable competitive advantage

3、,and drive positive societal impact.Our diverse,global teams bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of perspectives that question the status quo and spark change.BCG delivers solutions through leading-edge management consulting,technology and design,and corporate and digital ventur

4、es.We work in a uniquely collaborative model across the firm and throughout all levels of the client organization,fueled by the goal of helping our clients thrive and enabling them to make the world a better place.Contents02 At a glance04 We are in the middle of a spending shift10 E-commerce share o

5、f retail is expected to stabilize with price perception the key to success14 Sustainability remains important for consumers but fewer are willing to pay for it20 Priorities to win in the cost-of-living crisis24 About the authorsAs the economic outlook across the Nordics worsens,the Nordic consumer c

6、onfidence index hits its lowest point in 20 yearsdropping below that of the COVID-19 crisis and the financial crisis of 2008.In October 2022,BCG surveyed 4,000 consumers across Sweden,Norway,Denmark,and Finland to understand consumer sentiment and the resulting behavioral and spending changes at thi

7、s time of economic uncertainty.Our research focused on key insights for retailers and consumer goods companies that can enable them to respond to the cost-of-living crisis and emerge stronger.The survey confirms that Nordic consumer sentiment has weakened.Consumers have seen a significant de-crease

8、in how much they can affordand they expect this trend to continue.In mid-2021,when Covid began to subside,Nordic consum-ers were very optimistic about increasing their spending,especially in categories hard hit during the pandemic,such as restaurants,leisure travel,and live entertainment.How-ever,th

9、ese plans have now been abandoned,with consum-ers reporting that they plan to spend less across categories and focus on essentials.Consumers are planning to buy less and trade down by purchasing more from discounters and opting for cheaper brands to cut down on their spending We also see that the e-

10、commerce share of retail seems to be stabilizing after the post-pandemic drop,with con-sumers intending to keep their current online share of purchases.However,online shopping is often perceived as more expensive than in-store shopping which makes price perception a key driver for e-commerce in the

11、new environment.At a glanceCOST OF LIVING CRISIS:NORDIC CONSUMER SENTIMENT 20222 With less money to spend,consumer willingness to pay for sustainable products have also decreased.Nonetheless,they still see sustainability as important,and the cost-of-living crisis accelerates trends toward other more

12、 sustain-able consumer behaviors,such as purchasing secondhand goods and consuming less meat.It is time for retailers to actrevisiting price and price perception across channels,lowering costs,and revamp sustainability efforts to offer more affordable options for consumers.Source:OECD;Statista;Dansk

13、e Bank Nordic Economic Outlook H2-2022;BCG analysisNordic consumer confidence index(CCI)per country from 2001-2022SwedenFinlandDenmark105100950Jan 2005Jan 2010Jan 2015Jan 2020Higher than expected inflation,rising interest rates,and consumer wealth eroded by lower asset values all point to a weaker o

14、utlook across the Nordic countriesGiven current levels of economic uncertainty,consumer confidence is at its lowest it has been in the 21st centuryWith a darkening economic outlook,Nordic consumer confidence is at its lowest in 20+yearsBOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 3CONSUMERS EXPECT THEIR DISCRETIONARY IN

15、COME TO DECLINE FURTHERNo less than 68%of surveyed consumers report that their discretionary income has declined over the last six months.However,it will get worse before it gets better,with 72%expecting that their discretionary income will take a fur-ther hit in the next six months.Among Nordic con

16、sumers,25%do not feel financially secure with the current status of their household economy.Another 47%feel secure at the moment,but are worried that this will changedriven mainly by concerns around rising energy costs,eroding savings,and skyrocketing inflation.As expected,low-income consumers and h

17、ouse-holds with children are feeling the least secure.Almost half of surveyed consumers,44%,report that they will either save less,not save at all,or even have to tap into their existing savings.From a Nordic perspective,although the sentiment is similar across the region,consumers in Norway and Fin

18、-land expect their discretionary income to decline more than their Nordic counterparts.We are in the middle of a spending shiftCOST OF LIVING CRISIS:NORDIC CONSUMER SENTIMENT 20224 BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 5Source:BCG research based on management teams of top 100 Belgian companies by revenueGrowth in

19、 spend today vs.the last 6 monthsExpected growth in spend over the next 6 months1005%0%-5%0-10%-5%5%10%0%ReboundersRestaurantsLeisure travelLive entertainment and culture events Packaged,frozen or canned food,and beveragesElectronics and appliancesVitamins,minerals and supplementsFood delivery/take-

20、outDigital entertainment/streamingTransportationClothingFresh meatSports and sporting equipmentFresh fruit and vegetablesJewelry and accessoriesCosmetics,skin care and hygieneAlcohol,tobacco,and nicotineHome furnishing and DIYToys and gamesWinnersPermanentdeclineShort-term boost Long-term declinedPo

21、sition in 22 Consumer Sentiment studyPosition in 21 COVID-surveyGrowth in spend today vs.before COVIDExpected growth in spend after lifted restrictions1005%0%-5%0-10%-5%5%10%0%ReboundersRestaurantsLeisure travelLive entertainment and culture events Packaged,frozen or canned food,and beveragesElectro

22、nics and appliancesVitamins,minerals and supplementsFood delivery/take-outDigital entertainment/streamingTransportationClothingFresh meatSports and sporting equipmentFresh fruit and vegetablesJewelry and accessoriesCosmetics,skin care and hygieneAlcohol,to-bacco,and nicotineHome furnishing and DIYTo

23、ys and gamesWinnersPermanentdeclineShort-term boost Long-term declinedSegments expected to boom after COVID are now seeing a significant decline in spendingCOST OF LIVING CRISIS:NORDIC CONSUMER SENTIMENT 20226 BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 71.8%of consumers state that they will both buy less and trade dow

24、nBOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 7TIGHTER BUDGETS MEAN FOCUSING MORE ON ESSENTIALS,BUYING LESS,AND SHIFTING TO CHEAPER OPTIONSAlthough spending will decline across categories,the big-gest drop is expected to be in discretionary categories.Apparel,restaurants,leisure travel,live entertainment,and cultural ev

25、entsin which spending boomed immediately post-Covidare expected to show a strong decline(5%7%in overall spending)in the months to come.A similar trend is expected for other discretionary categories such as jewel-ry;home furnishing and DIY;electronics and appliances;sports and sporting equipment;as w

26、ell as food delivery.Essentials such as fresh fruits and vegetables;packaged,frozen,and canned food and beverages;and transportation are the least impacted in terms of reduction in sales.With-in essentials,consumers are planning to cut their spending primarily by switching to cheaper brands and shop

27、ping at discount stores,rather than buying less.Among respon-dents,35%plan to trade down in groceries,while only 13%feel that they will buy less groceries in the next six months.1 39%of respondents are already shopping at low-cost grocery brands,and another 40%state that they are likely to increase

28、their share of grocery shopping at low-cost brands,creating a big opportunity for retailers.Consumers likely to trade down in essentials such as groceries,while also reducing consumption in non-essentialsCOST OF LIVING CRISIS:NORDIC CONSUMER SENTIMENT 20228 36%of consumers shop at low-cost grocery r

29、etailers;large shift toward low-cost retailers expected,particularly in SwedenBOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 9E-commerce share of retail is expected to stabilize with price perception the key to successPOST-COVID DECLINE IN ONLINE SHARE IS LEVELING OFFDuring the pandemic,a large share of consumers moved on

30、line due to lockdowns and other restrictions.However,as soon as those restrictions were lifted,they started returning to brick-and-mortar stores,leading to a decline in onlines share of consumption.Going forward,the online share is expected to plateau at current levels.Consumers have reported two ma

31、in reasons for choosing to shop at a physical store instead of online:1)the need to touch and feel products before purchasing,and 2)conve-nience of bringing the products home directly.Consumers value the inspiration they find in stores,the ease of finding the products they want and the availability

32、of customer support,all of which are missing online.Consumers also started getting back to re-discovering experiences they were missing out on during the pandem-ic.For example,footfall increased in restaurants,resulting in a strong decline in online share of consumption,going down 6 percentage point

33、s,from 25%to 19%.Home furnishings,electronics,cosmetics,and groceries were hit less hard and only saw a 3%decline in online consumption share.COST OF LIVING CRISIS:NORDIC CONSUMER SENTIMENT 202210 BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 11Online consumption has declined;the recent decrease in online consumption pos

34、t COVID is expected to stabilizePREFERENCE FOR ONLINE OVER PHYSICAL STORES RELATED TO PRICE PERCEPTIONTThe low share of online consumption in groceries(10%),home furnishings and DIY(18%),and restaurants and take-out(19%)seem to be linked to a higher price percep-tion of online products(price includi

35、ng delivery)in these categories.This trend seems to hold true for all Nordic countriesthe lone exception being Finland,where,surprisingly,all cate-gories have a higher price perception online.Despite this,Prices are perceived to be higher online compared with physical stores in grocery,home furnishi

36、ng and DIY,and restaurants and take-outNordic deep dive|online consumption across categoriesthe countrys stated online consumption in most catego-ries is at par with its Nordic counterparts.Also,it is interesting to note that Swedish consumers state that 31%of their total consumption was online in t

37、he past six months in cosmetics,skin care,and hygiene compared with only 18%in Finland,22%in Denmark,and 24%in Norway.Overall,this shows a possibility for retailers that want to drive online sales to revisit the actual prices and price perception.This is especially relevant in the groceries and home

38、 furnishings categories.COST OF LIVING CRISIS:NORDIC CONSUMER SENTIMENT 202212 BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 13Cost of delivery and fast delivery are key factors for online shoppers,but very few are willing to pay for fast deliveryCONSUMERS WANT FAST DELIVERY BUT ARE NOT WILLING TO PAY EXTRA FOR ITPrice a

39、nd speed are the top two factors influencing shop-pers when choosing delivery options for online purchases.However,only 27%of consumers are willing to pay an addi-tional fee to shorten delivery times.Consumers have also reported being able to bring products home with them instantly as a key reason f

40、or shopping in physical stores,ranking just below ability to touch/feel the products.This points to a possible systemic shift away from the high-convenience,instant-delivery model as consumers ability and willingness to pay for shorter delivery times decreases along with retailers ability to fund th

41、ese models Companies should revisit their online offering and delivery pricing to align it to changing consumer expectations.This also presents an opportunity for companies that have estab-lished efficient supply chain models to position themselves as offering fast delivery options at low costs.Sust

42、ainability remains important for consumers but fewer are willing to pay for itCurrently,29%of consumers on an average report that many to most of their purchases today are sustainable.Those who report few or none of their purchases being sustainable indicate that high price is a key barrier to purch

43、asing sustainable products.Consumers in Sweden and Finland are more frequent buyers of sustainable products,with 34%and 40%consum-ers,respectively,reporting that many to most of their purchases are sustainable,compared with 25%and 19%in Norway and Denmark.Sustainability holds a high value in consume

44、rs mind,with 58%of surveyed consumers reporting that sustainability aspects are important to them when purchasing a product However,as is often the case,there is a clear say-do gap.The majority of consumers are not willing to pay a premi-um for sustainability.Only 20%30%of respondents stated that th

45、ey would prefer sustainable products even if they cost more than non-sustainable alternatives.An exception to this is groceries,where no less than 48%would open their wallets to buy sustainably even if it costs extra.It is worth noting that Norwegian and Finnish consumers have a higher willingness t

46、o pay a sustainability premium in many categories,including apparel and accessories,electronics and appliances,and home furnishings and DIY.Danish consumers take a lead in cosmetics skin care and hygiene,and Swedish consumers in groceries and restau-rants/take-out.COST OF LIVING CRISIS:NORDIC CONSUM

47、ER SENTIMENT 202214 BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 15Despite continued awareness,few consumers are willing to pay extra for sustainability,except for in groceriesBOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 15Norwegian and Finnish consumer generally more willing to pay a sustainability premium except for groceriesCOST OF LIVIN

48、G CRISIS:NORDIC CONSUMER SENTIMENT 202216 BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 17As the cost-of-living crisis continues,consumer willingness to pay extra for sustainable products is likely to decrease even further.A majority of surveyed consumers(65%)stated that they will shift to less-costly non-sustainable alt

49、ernatives if their discretionary income decreases.Inter-estingly,52%of consumers who are currently willing to pay a sustainability premium also echoed this sentiment.Price and quality are top of mind for consumers when purchasing sustainable products,keeping them above sustainable raw materials,coun

50、try of production,low carbon dioxide footprint,etc.This indicates that there is a potential for companies to offer affordable sustainability.The key is to find a positioning focusing on the product value in terms of price/quality rather than believing the products sustainability will outweigh other

51、aspects.Somewhat likelyNot likelyNo riskVery likelySource:BCG Consumer Sentiment Survey 2022;BCG analysisIf your disposable income were to decrease,how likely would you be to switching to non-sustainable alternatives?Assumes that the non-sustainable alternatives cost lessTendency to switch similarly

52、 across income groups and regions;Gen X and boomers more resilient than Gen Z and millennials%respondents100%Gen Z and millennials100%100%Gen X and boomers28%37%23%12%35%37%19%9%23%36%27%14%The majority of consumers are likely to shift to non-sustainable alternatives if disposable income declinesRes

53、pondents say they are more likely to purchase secondhand products as disposable incomes decrease with inflation50%In which of the following categories do you see yourself buying more secondhand products in the next 6 months?Source:BCG Consumer Sentiment Survey 2022;BCG analysis500Home furnishing38%3

54、8%22%20%17%Apparel and accessoriesToys and gamesElectronics and appliancesSporting equipmentAs disposable income declines,consumers are more likely to buy secondhand,esp.in apparel and home furnishingsTHE COST-OF-LIVING CRISIS ACCELERATES THE TREND TOWARD MORE SUSTAINABLE CONSUMER BEHAVIORSThe silve

55、r lining for sustainability in the cost-of-living crisis is that it seems to accelerate the trend toward more sus-tainable consumer behaviors,such as buying more second hand,eating less meat,and buying only what is needed.Circular business models:Among consumers,50%report being more likely to purcha

56、se second hand productses-pecially in home furnishings and apparelas their discre-tionary incomes decline.However,it is worth noting that limited cost benefits,diffi-culty in finding products,items being too worn down,and low quality are key inhibitors slowing down the adoption of secondhand alterna

57、tives.Reduced consumption of fresh meat products:The survey indicates a stronger decline in spending on fresh meat products compared with other food products,with consum-ers stating that they“plan to buy less meat,due to sustain-ability reasons,as well as to save money.”Reduced overconsumption:The c

58、ost-of-living crisis has made consumers more cautious.They plan to buy only as much as they need,with many planning to buy less across categories.Consumers are,for example,stating that they“think a lot more before they commit to a purchase”and“only buy products that they need and will use for a long

59、 time.”COST OF LIVING CRISIS:NORDIC CONSUMER SENTIMENT 202218 BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 19BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 19Priorities to win in the cost-of-living crisis After reflecting on the latest consumer sentiment,we believe retailers should focus on six things to better navi-gate the cost-of-living cr

60、isis:Lowering prices and revisiting product mixes to compete with discounters;Better manage price perception online to drive e-com-merce sales;Reduce cost in order to afford a better price positioning;Revisit online delivery offering to match consumer ex-pectations and willingness to pay;Guide consu

61、mers to affordable sustainable options;And rethink their business model to incorporate sustain-ability and circularity.Retailers that manage to develop affordable circular business models will be able to meet consumer demand for secondhand products and low-cost sustainable options,while also insulat

62、ing them against e.g.geopolitical instability and supply chain disruptionsIt is said that Winston Churchill once quipped,”Never let a good crisis go to waste”.Now is the time for business-es to invest in resetting their positioning,redefining their setup,and reducing wastecoming out of the cost-of-l

63、iving crisis with a stronger offering and a more efficient and resilient setup.COST OF LIVING CRISIS:NORDIC CONSUMER SENTIMENT 202220 BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 21BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 21COST OF LIVING CRISIS:NORDIC CONSUMER SENTIMENT 202222 BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 23BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP 23For Fur

64、ther ContactIf you would like to discuss this report,please contact the authors.COST OF LIVING CRISIS:NORDIC CONSUMER SENTIMENT 202224 About the AuthorsNanna Gelebo is a Partner in the Stockholm office of the Boston Consulting Group.You may contact her at Gelebo.N David Sandberg is a Managing Direct

65、or and Partner in the Stockholm office of the Boston Consulting Group.You may contact him at Sandberg.D Fanny Sjberg is a Managing Director and Partner in the Stockholm office of The Boston Consulting Group.You may contact her by email at Sjoberg.F Emil Stamp is a Managing Director and Partner in th

66、e Copenhagen office of The Boston Consulting Group.You may contact him by email at Stamp.E Andreas Malby is a Managing Director and Partner in the Copenhagen office of the Boston Consulting Group.You may contact him by email at Malby.AJohn Dannberg is a Managing Director and Partner in the Helsinki

67、office of the Boston Consulting Group.You may contact him by email at Dannberg.J Michael Stahle is a Principal in the Helsinki office of the Boston Consulting Group.You may contact him by email at Stahle.M Magnus Proesch is a Partner in the Oslo office of the Boston Consulting Group.You may contact

68、him by email at Proesch.M Jacob Ziesler is a Partner in the Oslo office of the Boston Consulting Group.You may contact him by email at Ziesler.JBoston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities.BCG

69、 was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963.Today,we help clients with total transformationinspiring complex change,enabling organizations to grow,building competitive advantage,and driving bottom-line impact.To succeed,organizations must blend digital and human capabilities.Ou

70、r diverse,global teams bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of perspectives to spark change.BCG delivers solutions through leading-edge management consulting along with technology and design,corporate and digital venturesand business purpose.We work in a uniquely collaborative mo

71、del across the firm and throughout all levels of the client organization,generating results that allow our clients to thrive.Uciam volora ditatur?Axim voloreribus moluptati autet hario qui a nust faciis reperro vitatia dipsandelia sit laborum,quassitio.Itas volutem es nulles ut faccus perchiliati do

72、luptatur.Estiunt.Et eium inum et dolum et et eos ex eum harchic teceserrum natem in ra nis quia disimi,omnia veror molorer ionsed quia ese veliquiatius sundae poreium et et illesci atibeatur aut que consequia autas sum fugit qui aut excepudit,omnia voloratur?Explige ndeliaectur magnam,que expedignis

73、t ex et voluptaquam,offici bernam atqui dem vel ius nus.Nem faccaborest hillamendia doluptae conseruptate inim volesequid molum quam,conseque consedipit hillabo.Imaio evelenditium haribus,con reictur autemost,vendam am ellania estrundem corepuda derrore mporrumquat.Add Co-Sponsor logo hereFor information or permission to reprint,please contact BCG at .To find the latest BCG content and register to receive e-alerts on this topic or others,please visit .Follow Boston Consulting Group on Facebook and Twitter.Boston Consulting Group 2022.All rights reserved.11/