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1、Retail Trends-2022 ForecastAlmost two years after the first lockdowns,it seems that the pandemic hasactually enhanced offline shoppings long-term prospects.The radically newsituation created by the pandemic gave many retailers a license to thinkoutside the box as they navigated wholly uncharted terr

2、itory,which led to theadoption of novel and creative strategies to retain old customers and acquirenew ones.The pandemic also reminded many consumers that“you dontknow what you got till its gone”specifically,you dont know how much youmiss shopping in physical stores until the physical stores are shu

3、ttered.And sodespite the widespread safety concerns at the onset of COVID,and despite thewidespread availability of online channels for everything from perishablegroceries to childrens toys to home furnishings,consumers quickly andforcefully returned to brick-and-mortar stores.Today,consumers and re

4、tailers alike are more aware than ever of brick andmortars unique value propositions.Consumers have a new appreciation ofthe social experience of in-person shopping,the possibilities for productdiscovery,and the customer service guidance and support that is difficult toreplicate online.Retailers und

5、erstand the brand-building capabilities,customer acquisitions potential,and logistical support that only physicalstores provide.But retails potential will not actualize itself retailers need to actively adapttheir strategies and seize the opportunities presented by this unique momentin time.Brands t

6、hat fail to keep up with consumers expectations will be leftbehind,while retailers who succeed today will consolidate their standing foryears to come.Physical retailers are not dead but those that dont evolvemight be on their way.This white paper identifies eight trends that are expected to play a k

7、ey role inshaping the future of brick-and-mortar retail going into 2022.Where relevant,we have provided examples using foot-traffic data and location analytics toshow how these trends have already begun to impact the retail landscape.Wehope that this report will serve retailers,real-estate executive

8、s,andprofessionals in the consumer goods space to make informed decisions andposition their brands and properties for success.Comprehensive Approachto Omnichannel is a MustDespite the bleak picture of brick-and-mortar retail presented in recent years,it is now clear that even with the rise of e-comm

9、erce the physical store isntgoing anywhere.If anything,the COVID recovery has proven thatbrick-and-mortar retail may actually be stronger than ever before.More andmore retailers understand the business advantages of having an omnichannelstrategy that blends the two modes of shopping.A more harmonize

10、d and holistic approach to retail is critical.Rather thanframing online and physical sales as battling in a zero-sum contest,the twochannels need to be leveraged together to provide a better overall experiencefor the customer.The key for retailers is to focus on the unique benefits that online and o

11、fflinechannels provide and to build experiences around these strengths.Forexample,brick and mortar is still more effective at enabling real productdiscovery and allows customers the ability to touch and feel the items they areinterested in and to try on products.Even if the ultimate purchase takes p

12、lacethrough a digital channel,it is still fundamentally enabled and improved by thephysical store experience.There is also the added ability to provide a trulyauthentic brand experience in a location.The result is a deeper relationshipwith the customer and the capacity to leverage experiential strat

13、egies.A retailers online presence can also be improved by access to physical stores.From Buy Online,Pick Up In Store(BOPIS)to curbside pickup to cheaperreturns,there are ways to leverage stores as an ideal complement to positiveonline experiences.Measuring the uplift that physical stores provide to

14、onlinepurchases in a given region,the impact they can have on lowering deliverycosts,and even the improvements to brand awareness and engagement iscritical to truly understanding the value physical locations provide.A recent study by Nielsen found that online channels are an essential meansto compar

15、e prices,research new products,and find physical stores.But otherelements are often overlooked,limiting the visibility needed to bettermaximize these channels in a complementary way.Retailers like Target and Walmart have led the way with their omnichannelcapabilities,and the success they have had is

16、 directly related to these efforts.Going into 2022,expect more brands to drive a heavy focus on offeringcustomers a cross-channel experience that allows them to pick their idealroute to buying specific products.Digitally NativesBrick-and-Mortar FutureDigitally native brands(DNBs)have a unique perspe

17、ctive on the potential ofomnichannel shopping.While most traditional retailers used stores as astarting point and then moved online,the online-only approach that thesebrands pioneered provided the key,and often only,path to early growth.Yet,many are now turning to physical locations to help expand t

18、he potentialsuccess and this shift is incredibly important.The push for physicalexpansion and the exceptional growth it has provided for DNBs like WarbyParker,Allbirds,Everlane,and even Amazon,is critical not just because of theearly success,but also for the wider implications.For many,the shift of

19、DNBs offline presents one of the most powerfultestaments to the importance of brick-and-mortar locations.These brands areproving that wider omnichannel approaches are critical to driving growth,andwhen considered comprehensively,enable them to maximize the impact ofeach location.The fact that these

20、brands are renowned for their data-drivenapproach to growth and deep understanding of customers only reinforces theimpact.Should the trend continue to hold,the impact on the retail real estateecosystem could be even more significant.The entry of more chains into themix creates a greater level of bra

21、nd diversity and offers a wide,new pool ofpotential tenants.The result is more optionality,more diversity and aninfusion of fresh retail perspectives into the mix.For the shopping centers,downtown areas,and malls that can attract these rising chains,the effectcould be significant.As a result,expect

22、attracting top-tier DNBs to be amongthe key trends in the coming year.Retail Healthcareis on the RisePre-COVID,many retailers were already placing an added emphasis onproducts and services within the wider health and wellness category.Theimpact of the pandemic should only increase that investment.CV

23、S announcedit would be closing 900 stores in the next three years and remodelinghundreds of others to put more emphasis on providing healthcare services.Walgreens too is doubling down on its investment in healthcare offerings,launching a new business segment called“Walgreens Health”to create a moreu

24、nified healthcare offering for consumers.And the strategy appears rooted in the offline success the sector is alreadyseeing.Both CVS and Walgreens have been providing in-store COVID testingand vaccinations and seeing a massive jump in visits during the heaviestvaccination period from March through J

25、uly.In August,at the height of thesummer rise in COVID cases,year-over-two-year visits to CVS and Walgreensreached 40.3%and 45.5%,respectively.The move is also attracting attention from industry giants.Although Walmartis newer in the healthcare space,it has big plans for the future.The retail giantp

26、lans to install 4,000 primary care“supercenters”in stores by 2029,includingclinical laboratory testing services,and Walmart already operates 24 medicalclinics in Arkansas,Georgia,Texas,and Illinois.Despite the shaky start it had with the reorganization of its health leadershipamid a slow clinic roll

27、out,it appears that Walmarts new health centers areperforming exceptionally well.The 24 Walmart stores containing a new healthcenter have seen significantly higher year-over-two-year visits than both thechains nationwide change in visits and the chains state-wide change in visitsfor the states conta

28、ining the new health centers.The growing strength of these formats alongside the rise in visits forhealthcare oriented changes across the country only reinforce the growingposition of this sector within the wider retail focus.Small-Format Stores-The Next Big Thing?During the summer,Target began the

29、process of opening dozens of Ultashops-in-shop.At the same time,the initial batch of 200 Sephora storesopened within Kohls locations.In a recent interview,Kohls CEO Michelle Gasssaid that Sephora in Kohls shops was driving“extraordinary growth”in Kohlsbeauty business and boosting average unit sales

30、in the category.Gass saidthat Sephora customers are purchasing across a wide range of beautycategories and price points and tend to shop across the store.Roughly half aremaking purchases in at least one other category.In addition,over 25 percentof those shopping at these Sephora spaces are new to Ko

31、hls.Kohls location data from July through October only affirmed the potential ofthe shop-in-shop concept.Comparing Kohls visits from the last four monthsto a July 2021 baseline showed that Kohls with Sephora locations had highergrowth in visits than Kohls without the Sephora addition.Comparing Kohls

32、visits from the last months to those in 2019 confirmed the trend-Kohls storescontaining Sephora had consistently outperformed those without inyear-over-two-year visits.The same pattern could be seen with Ulta in Target.Comparing Target storeswith and without Ulta shops to a July 2021 baseline shows

33、that Target storescontaining Ulta saw stronger visit performance than those without.But it wasnt just top retail giants launching new concepts.Though in adifferent format,department stores also adopted the small-concept storetrend this year.Macys launched three“off-mall”store formats of Market byMac

34、ys,while Bloomingdales opened its first small Bloomies store in Fairfax,Virginia.These small-concept department stores focus mainly on thecustomers experience,offering a curated assortment of products,whichrotate frequently.Bloomies offers alterations,a drop box for returns andappointments with styl

35、ists.The stores also support the retailers fulfillmentcapabilities,especially when it comes to buy online,pick up in-store(BOPIS).A comparison of Bloomies in Fairfax,Virginia,and adjacent Bloomingdales inTysons Corner Center from the past three months showed some fascinatingdifferences.Firstly,and u

36、nsurprisingly,Bloomies attracted visitors from amuch closer radius than Bloomingdales did.While around only 40%ofBloomindales visitors came from a 10 mile radius,Bloomies saw nearly 70%of its visitors arrive from that distance.Another interesting difference between the department store and thesmall-

37、format store was the hours of visits and median length of stay.Bloomingdales saw a higher percentage of visits in the morning hours(two-thirds of daily visits were before 4 PM),while Bloomies saw visits spreadout more evenly across the day.Interestingly,Bloomies witnessed asignificantly higher media

38、n length of stay than Bloomingdales did 44minutes median stay for Bloomies compared to 31 minutes for the nearbyBloomingdales.These differences point to a critical factor that defines these newer formats-they are complementary to the existing strength the department store brandshave already shown.Wh

39、ereas Bloomingdales gains strength from the mallformat it generally calls home,Bloomies smaller footprint enables locations indifferent types of areas,which offers the ability to better target certainsegments and to align merchandising accordingly.Yet,the bigger takeaway may be the willingness that

40、more retailers areshowing to testing new concepts in new markets as a means to betteroptimize their overall ability to reach customers.Expect these tests to drivewider adoption and interest in pushing new boundaries especially for moreestablished retailers looking to diversify their mix.The Great Re

41、gressionThe pandemic led some sectors to thrive and others to struggle.As COVIDbegan to impact retail in spring 2020,sectors like dining,fitness and shoppingcenters were the first to get hit and suffered a huge blow with every lockdownand restriction.Meanwhile,other sectors benefited whether because

42、 ofessential retail status,strong alignment with key shopping trends,or acombination of the two.One example of the latter phenomenon was the growth seen by homeimprovement giants Home Depot and Lowes.As late as March 2021,the twochains saw visits up 29.7%and 24.5%year over year.Yet,those numbersquic

43、kly began to plummet into declines by spring 2021 when the comparisonto the unique heights hit in 2020 set a difficult standard to match.This“failure”is critical to understand in context as it in no way represents a true setback.Itis true that Home Depot and Lowes surged during the pandemic only to

44、seevisits decline year over year.But looking at visits compared to 2019 still showsa significant jump indicating that the step forward in 2020 was so massive,that even a step back in 2021 still amounts to strong growth.And this is another key element and trend for 2022 a regression to the norm.Brand

45、s that benefited from the unique confluence of factors in the COVIDenvironment could see declines even though they are still in a strongerposition today than they were pre-pandemic.The same is also true in reverse.Segments like dining and fitness were hit especially hard during the pandemic,and whil

46、e concerns over Peloton bikes replacing the need for a gym stoleheadlines the reality was never that stark.Instead,we need to account for the unique environment of recent years tobetter contextualize the performance of certain chains and key segments.Sowhile the steep declines and massive recoveries

47、 are certain to driveexcitement,the wider performance can only be properly analyzed as part of awider evolution.The coming months will reveal which chains werefundamentally improved and which were negatively impacted by thepandemic.Disciplined ExpansionTaking a hit from a global pandemic in the midd

48、le of a retailers expansionplan is far from ideal.But even so,several retailers who had started to scalemassively before COVID managed to continue executing their plan successfully and much of this is being seen from brands with very clear and disciplinedapproaches to growth.Dutch Bros.expanded aggr

49、essively and currently operates 471 locations in 11Western states.In a recent public statement,the company announced itsplans to expand to 4,000 shops,with most of its growth focussing oncompany-owned locations.Dutch Bros.impressive foot traffic performanceduring recent years,and especially througho

50、ut the pandemic,can helpsupport this ambitious decision.Drilling down to the chains visits compared toJanuary 2019 shows a consistent gradual increase in foot traffic.Visits to thechain in October were nearly 200%higher than they were in January 2019.Yet,much of the success here and expected strengt

51、h moving forward centersaround the willingness of the brand to expand in a disciplined manner.Asopposed to diving into a Starbucks-esque third place experience,Dutch Bros isremaining committed to a drive-thru focused experience.In the fitness sector,Crunch Fitness had recently announced the opening

52、of its400th branch in San Angelo,Texas.The chains continued plan to scale canalso be justified by a gradual increase in foot traffic seen throughout the year.Since September 2020,the chain witnessed a consistent increase in visits,withvisits in October 2021 63%higher than they were in September.Crun

53、ch,likePlanet Fitness,is showing a focused approach to growth that underscores theunique advantages the chain offers without being overly tempted to move intoother areas of the fitness space.While new concepts and tests are likely acrossspaces,the role of this type of disciplined approach in certain

54、 stages ofexpansion should make it a critical theme for 2022.The Haves and Have NotsThe pandemic has presented a huge test for retailers.The global crisis haswidened the gap between different types of retailers like off-mall retailerssuch as big-box stores and mall-based retailers.And it has also hi

55、ghlighted thedifferences between retailers who were healthy enough to weather the stormand come out stronger to those who couldnt.Location analytics from retail giants like Target,Walmart,and Best Buydemonstrate that the changes in visits they saw throughout the pandemicwere minor to non-existent.Ev

56、en a brand like Best Buy,which did experiencean initial dip in visits with the pandemic outbreak in the spring of 2020,wasable to get back on route quickly,exceeding its pre-pandemic level quickly bythe holiday season of 2020.These types of unquestionable winners can also be found in sectors that we

57、rehit harder by the pandemic.In the dining space,giants like McDonalds,Starbucks,and Panera Bread could bounce back fully to their pre-pandemiclevels of visits.The reason for this was more than just a quick adaptation toCOVID circumstances like enhancing delivery capabilities or contactless orders i

58、t was the fact that they are the“Haves”,having enough strength to weathera storm elegantly,whether it takes the form of a global pandemic,inflation,orany other economic crisis.The power of these chains lies in their wider strength.Expect them to leveragetheir dominance aggressively in the next year

59、as they double down on theadvantages gained from their size and scale during the pandemic period.Strong in theFace of ChallengesDespite the fact that inflation has been rising at the fastest pace in 30 years,consumers dont appear to be cutting down on their purchases.In Octoberalone,retail across ca

60、tegories rose by 1.7%,compared with 0.8%inSeptember,and sales are up 16.3%on a year-over-year basis.Foot traffic dataacross retail categories shows a similar trend,with visits to stores constantlyincreasing through October.But the primary challenge may be supply-chain concerns from lingering COVIDch

61、allenges.While the global nature of the pandemic is driving much of theissue,an added component comes from shifts in where consumer demand istaking place.Not only are global challenges placing pressure on theinternational supply chain,shifts in where demand is taking place locally aredeepening these

62、 issues.For example,while Starbucks visits are rising inDallas,they are down significantly in Chicago those same weeks,largelybecause of changes to office routines and new migration patterns.The ability of retailers to stay ahead of these shifts will go a long way inenabling them to more rapidly ove

63、rcome supply-chain issues and laborshortages.The Future is Brightfor Offline RetailThe pandemic has infused new life into offline retail.Consumers are feelingrenewed excitement about shopping in stores,while retailers are more willingto experiment with new approaches and strategies.A major window of

64、 opportunity for retail is now open and at the same time,the retail landscape is consolidating.Brands that understand the shifts in bothconsumer expectations and in leading retailers strategies will gain acompetitive edge,while brands that fail to adapt their approach may loseground and fall by the

65、wayside.In this report,we outlined eight major trends that emerged in 2021 and thatwill likely continue to shape retail going forward.Given the innovation that iscurrently sweeping the sector,the trends we highlighted do not cover all theshifts that are currently underway in the industry.Nevertheles

66、s,this reportoffers a useful guide to retailers,CRE managers,and CPG professionalslooking to make sense of the current state of retail,to anticipate successesand failures,and to evaluate brands and properties going into 2022.Which of these will stand the test of the coming years and which will prove lesssturdy?Visit Placer.ai to find out.