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1、The latest Bain-Altagamma Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study forecasts increased resilience to recession after robust 2022 growth.Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its ReboundCopyright 2022 Bain&Company,Inc.All rights reserved.About the authorsThe Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study was a

2、uthored by Claudia DArpizio,Federica Levato,and Filippo Prete.This report was written by Jolle de Montgolfier with support from Allison Kavanagh.Claudia DArpizio()is a Bain&Company partner based in Milan and the leader of the firms Global Luxury and Fashion vertical.Federica Levato()is a Bain partne

3、r and a leading member of the Luxury and Fashion vertical.She is based in Bains Milan office.Filippo Prete()is an associate partner in Bains Milan office.He also works with the firms Luxury and Fashion vertical.Jolle de Montgolfier()is Bains global practice executive vice president for Consumer Prod

4、ucts,Retail,and Luxury.She is based in the firms Paris office.Allison Kavanagh is a practice manager in Bains Retail practice.She is based in the firms New York office.1Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its Covid Rebound ContentsExecutive summary .2Luxury spending trends in 2022 .5Regional

5、 highlights.10Distribution trends .15Individual category performance .18Outlook for the future .22Appendix.262Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its Covid Rebound Executive summaryThe global luxury goods market took a leap forward in 2022,despite uncertain market conditions.The industry is

6、poised to see further expansion next year and for the rest of the decade to 2030,even in the face of economic turbulence.These are key findings from the 21st edition of the Bain&Company-Altagamma Luxury Study,a collaboration between Bain&Company and Fondazione Altagamma,the trade association of Ital

7、ian luxury goods manufacturers.The overall luxury industry tracked by Bain&Company encompasses both luxury goods and experiences.It comprises nine segments,led by luxury cars,luxury hospitality,and personal luxury goods,which together account for more than 80%of the total market.After a severe contr

8、action in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic,the market grew back to 1.15 trillion in 2021 and surprised everyone in 2022 by further growing 19%21%,according to our estimates.Luxury spending continued to skew toward products,with steep growth in personal luxury goods and more moderate growth in exper

9、ience-based goods.Spending on experiences will be the last luxury outlay to recover historical highs given its reliance on the resumption of international tourism and business travel.The market for personal luxury goodsthe“core of the core”of luxury segments and the focus of this analysissaw impress

10、ive growth in 2022,coming on the heels of the V-shaped Covid rebound enjoyed in 2021.Despite worsening macroeconomic indicators globally and specific challenges in China,the sector performed strongly across quarters,and it is likely to have reached 353 billion in retail sales value in 2022,marking a

11、n advance of 22%at current exchange rates(or 15%at constant exchange rates)vs.2021.In 2022,we estimate that 95%of brands experienced positive growth,but most luxury players continued to invest for the future,which resulted in a slight erosion of average profitability following an unprecedented incre

12、ase in 2021.Luxury in 2023:More resilient to recession than in 2009 Despite recessionary conditions expected across leading economies in 2023,personal luxury goods should see further expansion.The impact of a possible global recession on the industry in 2023 could differ from the impact of the 20080

13、9 global financial crisis.The luxury market now appears better equipped to cope with economic turbulence,thanks to a consumer base that is both larger and more concentrated on top customers who are less sensitive to downturns.The customer centricity honed in recent years is another source of resilie

14、nce for the industry,as is the multi-touchpoint ecosystem that luxury has developed.3Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its Covid Rebound As a result,two scenarios could play out in 2023,with sales growth in the personal luxury goods market ranging from 3%to 5%in the base case and up to 6%t

15、o 8%(at constant exchange rates)in a more positive case,depending on the strength of economic recovery in China and the ability of the US and Europe to withstand economic headwinds.Old markets lead,but newcomers surpriseThe US luxury market proved very strong in 2022.Europe managed to recover beyond

16、 pre-Covid 2019 levels thanks to solid domestic demand,alongside a boost from US and Middle Eastern tourist shoppers.Meanwhile,China,which remains crucial to the long-term future of the luxury market,was challenged due to Covid lockdowns,and sales are likely to be down vs.2021.Chinas luxury market i

17、s expected to recover by the second half of 2023.Southeast Asia and South Korea have been excelling in both growth and future potential.Although there will never be“another China”in terms of growth contribution to the industry,new markets(such as India and emerging Southeast Asian and African countr

18、ies)have significant potential,assuming their luxury shopping infrastructure can evolve quickly enough.Among the rising stars,India stands out;its luxury market could expand to 3.5 times todays size by 2030.Stores win back their roleRetail continued to grow faster than wholesale and reached parity i

19、n terms of market share.Meanwhile,the online channels market share is normalizing.The coming years will see a further blurring of the boundaries between monobrand outlets and e-commerce,which will increasingly push brands to take an“omnichannel 3.0”approach,enabled and enhanced by new technologies.O

20、utperformance of all categoriesAll personal luxury goods categories have now recovered to 2019 levels or better,with hard luxury,leather,and apparel leading the resurgence following the pandemic.A deliberate(and effective)elevation strategy has driven a progressive price increase across the leather

21、categoryaccounting for about 60%of 201922 growthwithout damaging volume growth.Expanding,yet elevated,customer baseThe luxury markets consumer base will expand from some 400 million people in 2022 to 500 million by 2030.The share of top customers has been expanding and accounted for some 40%of marke

22、t value in 2022,compared with 35%last year.These consumers are hungry for unique products and experiences,putting brands VIC(very important client)strategies into overdrive.4Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its Covid Rebound Strong generational and technology trends to reshape the market

23、through 2030The prospects for personal luxury goods out to 2030 are positive.Solid fundamentals are set to boost the markets value to between 540 billion and 580 billion by the end of the present decade,from an estimated 353 billion in 2022a rise of 50%or more.A powerful factor for sector growth thi

24、s decade will be generational trends.Generation Y(millennials)and Generation Z accounted for all of the markets growth in 2022.The spending of Gen Z and the even younger Generation Alpha is set to grow three times faster than other generations through 2030,making up a third of the market.This reflec

25、ts a more precocious attitude toward luxury,with Gen Z consumers starting to buy luxury items some three to five years earlier than millennials did(at 15 vs.at 1820);Gen Alpha is expected to behave in a similar way.New types of activities,often powered by technology,should also spark an additional 6

26、0 billion to 120 billion in sales by 2030,from sources such as the metaverse and brand-related media content.5 5 The overall luxury market tracked by Bain&Company comprises nine segments:luxury cars,personal luxury goods,luxury hospitality,fine wines and spirits,gourmet food and fine dining,high-end

27、 furniture and housewares,fine art,private jets and yachts,and luxury cruises.Luxury cars,luxury hospitality,and personal luxury goods together account for 80%of the total market.Overall,we estimate that in 2022 the luxury markets overall retail sales value grew by 19%21%to 1.38 trillion,or 8%10%abo

28、ve 2019 levels.All segments gained momentum,but only luxury hospitality and cruises havent yet closed the gap with pre-Covid levels.Sales of luxury cars,the biggest portion of the overall market,hit a new record,reaching an estimated 566 billion,6%more than 2021 at current exchange rates and 3%above

29、 2019.Luxury cars are still subject to supply chain disruption,with component shortages further heightened by the Russia-Ukraine war.In Europe,high-end Asian automakers,particularly Chinese brands,have gained share from local rivals.As consumer interest in greener vehicles grows,along with governmen

30、t encouragement,premium car manufacturers have focused on larger models,to ease the higher cost of electric-car components.Demand for personalization and digital connectivity rose.Consumer expectations for service levels are rising too,with brands embracing direct-to-consumer models to create a more

31、 luxurious shopping experience at every stage.The luxury hospitality market surged to an estimated 191 billion,more than doubling in value in 2022.In spite of 110%year-over-year growth at current exchange rates,sales were still down 7%from their 2019 level.Growth was steady across regions as people

32、finally realized travel ambitions previously blocked by Covid,using money they couldnt spend on trips during the pandemic.However,Chinese lockdowns,a continued shortfall in international Asian tourism,and limited business travel constrained total market growth.Travelers were lured not just to leadin

33、g cities but also to out-of-the-way destinations,in keeping with the pandemic trend to seek Luxury spending trends in 20226Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its Covid Rebound rural solitude.Intuitive service that goes beyond merely offering“the human touch”is becoming more crucial,and oper

34、ators are increasingly looking to technology to automate predictable tasks and free employees to focus on the most important interactions.Sales of fine wines and spirits hit 96 billion,up 16%on 2021.Spirits grew faster than wine,with“status spirits”growing internationally and across categories,tappi

35、ng into usage occasions once reserved for wines.Sparkling wine(and not just Champagne)gained share over still.Gourmet food and fine dining grew 12%at current exchange rates to 57 billion,completing its recovery to prepandemic levels,as social restrictions were lifted across major cities.The pandemic

36、-fueled interest in consuming gourmet food at home continued,boosting select food retailers and fostering demand for culinary education.The high-end furniture and housewares market reached 53 billion,up 13%from 2021.The growth was fueled by the greater emphasis consumers have been placing on their h

37、ome lifeas both shelter and source of self-definitionsince the pandemic.Lighting and living/bedroom categories benefited the most,as consumers looked for more comfort,functionality,and beauty.Demand for high-end furniture and fixtures in commercial spaces was driven by an increasing appetite for ref

38、ined aesthetics and higher quality.The fine art market grew 13%to 39 billion,as the ranks of potential buyers swelled and new Asian art hubs strengthened.Art benefited from being seen by the wealthy as an alternative asset to hedge against volatility in financial markets.In keeping with greater soci

39、al interest in diversity,equity,and inclusion,galleries and collectors focused more on areas such as women artists and African art.The nonfungible token(NFT)market stabilized after a wave of speculative interest from investors.Art-based NFTs still represent a limitedalbeit expandingportion of the ov

40、erall market;artists are looking for ways to meaningfully integrate NFTs into fine arts.Sales of private yachts and jets grew by 18%at current exchange rates relative to 2021,reaching 26 billion.Luxury yacht orders rose to a record level,amid solid growth in deliveries.Interest from high-net-worth i

41、ndividuals continued to rise,reflecting a desire for deeper connections with nature and comfort;designs increasingly reflect these preoccupations,through features such as enlarged stern areas or a preference for explorer yachts able to sail to the remotest areas.Sustainability remains a focus for bo

42、th consumers and shipyards,from greener propulsion systems to design-for-disassembly solutions that make yacht materials more recyclable.Wealthy individuals turned to private jets more in 2022,due to their perceived safety and efficiency mercial travel.However,rising sustainability concerns,coupled

43、with increased operational costs,narrowed the potential customer base and restricted airplane utilization rates.7Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its Covid Rebound When segmented into goods vs.experiences,spending continued to skew to tangible products in 2022.The steepest growth rate bet

44、ween 2019 and 2022 belonged to personal luxury goods,followed by experience-based goods,such as fine art and luxury cars.Demand for luxury experiences has been improving,but this segment will be the last of the three to regain its 2019 levels,probably in 2023.The market for personal luxury goodsthe

45、heart of the entire luxury industryenjoyed another year of strong double-digit growth.Sales are set to hit a new record in 2022,with the market forecast to grow by 22%at current exchange rates to 353 billion.The most likely outcome in the fourth quarter of 2022 is a 19%year-over-year rise in sales,w

46、hich would be a slight slowdown from 23%growth in the third quarter.8Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its Covid Rebound Notes:Growth shown at current exchange rates;experience-based goods include fine art,luxury cars,private jets and yachts,fine wines and spirits,and gourmetfood;personal

47、goods include high-end furniture/housewares and personal luxury goods;experiences include luxury hospitality,cruises,and fine diningSource:Bain&CompanyGrowth of global luxury goods segments,indexed to 20102010111213141516171819202122E8%9%6%6%7%25%Overallgrowth201922ECAGR201019Experience-based goodsE

48、xperiencesPersonal goodsNote:E indicates estimated growthSource:Bain&CompanyWorldwide luxury market,2022E(billions)at constant exchange ratesPersonalluxurygoods35326%15%22%Luxurycars5663%1%6%Luxuryhospitality1917%95%110%Fine wines andspirits 9626%9%16%Gourmetfood and finedining 578%11%12%High-endfur

49、nitureand house-wares 5324%9%13%Privatejets andyachts 2612%10%18%Luxurycruises 225%325%355%at current exchange ratesFineart397%5%13%202122E growth 201922E overall growth at current exchange ratesTotal1,38419%21%11%13%8%10%Figure 2:Personal luxury goods and experience-based goods have driven the post

50、-Covid recovery;luxury experiences are still lagging but on a positive trajectoryFigure 1:The global luxury market has fully recovered from the Covid-19 crisis,having grown 8%10%over 20199Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its Covid Rebound Source:Bain&CompanyGlobal personal luxury goods ma

51、rket(billions)7619968497889898991160012201122021200312804139051500616107159081470916710186112071221213219142451524416254172621828119220202902135322“Sortie du temple”DemocratizationCovid-19 crisis and reboundRenaissanceCrisisChinese accelerationRebootNew normal19962019 CAGR+6%201922E overall growth+2

52、6%At currentexchange ratesAt constantexchange rates+22%202122E growth+22%At currentexchange ratesAt constantexchange rates+15%Best case:+24%Worst case:+10%26%Q118%Q223%Q319%Q4E22%11%15%13%2%Q23%Q37%Q4Source:Bain&CompanyGlobal personal luxury goods market,estimated quarterly growth(at current exchang

53、e rates)0%Q1Expected full-year market growth by scenario(202122E)Best case+24%+17%at constantexchange ratesBase case+22%+15%at constantexchange rates Worst case+19%+12%at constantexchange rates 20212022QOQ growth vs.2019QOQ growth vs.2021QOQ growth vs.2021 at constant exchange ratesFigure 3:After 20

54、21s V-shaped rebound,2022 set a new record for personal luxury goods sales,despite broader turbulence and uncertaintyFigure 4:The 2022 holiday season is hard to predict,due to a strong performance in 2021,possible macroeconomic headwinds,and Chinas gradual recovery1010 The global ranking of luxury s

55、ales by region changed in 2022,as the Americas regained the top position for personal luxury goods sales.Asia(excluding Japan)switched to second position,followed by Europe.The personal luxury goods market reached an estimated 113 billion in the Americas,growing 25%over 2021.Performance was particul

56、arly robust in the first half of the year.In the United States,traditional luxury hubs gradually returned to growth while suburban areas retained their new prominence as a source of luxury sales.Latin America experienced solid growth,especially in Mexico and Brazil.Asia surged by 43%when mainland Ch

57、ina and Japan were excluded,reflecting the booming performance of Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries,as well as a stellar year for South Korea,which narrowed the gap with Japan in terms of market size.Hong Kong and Macau were weaker spots,while Taiwan slowly recovered.In contrast,Mainland

58、China lost a little ground,dropping 1%from 2021.The market was constrained by prolonged Covid lockdowns in the second quarter,which affected consumer confidence and resulted in lackluster performance across all categories and channels(including online).We observed a rebound when and where Covid rest

59、rictions were lifted,yet not enough to offset the performance of the second quarter.Consumption was very strong in Europe.All markets fared well throughout the year,aided by healthy domestic demand and the return of tourists from the US and Middle East.The spending of US tourists in Europe doubled b

60、etween 2019 and 2022;about two-thirds of that gain reflected an increase in transactions while the other third came from an increase in average transaction size,according to Global Blue data.Italy and France were the 2022 growth champions,followed by Turkey,the UK,and Spain,while Germany softened.Th

61、e Russian market was mostly inactive due to war-related suspension of operations.Regional highlights 11Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its Covid Rebound Japan grew by 18%at current exchange rates to 24 billion,finally catching up to its pre-Covid level.Local Japanese consumption was soli

62、d,and the market also benefited from the return of tourists after the country reopened to visitors.Although there will never be“another China”in terms of outsize growth contribution to the industry,India and emerging Southeast Asian and African countries have significant potential,if the luxury indu

63、strys infrastructure(such as malls)and regulation can evolve quickly enough in those markets.India stands out;its luxury market could expand to 3.5 times todays size by 2030,propelled by younger customers and an expanding upper and middle class.12Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its Covid

64、 Rebound Figure 5:The Americas were back to being the biggest region for personal luxury goods sales;Europe grew the fastestNotes:Growth shown at current exchange rates;India included in AsiaSource:Bain&CompanyGlobal personal luxury goods market,by region(billions)20101671118612207132121421915245162

65、45172541826219281202202129022E3534%7%3%12%5%CAGR201022E2%10%0%14%8%CAGR201922E27%25%18%15%21%YOYgrowth202122EAmericasAsia(excludingJapan)EuropeJapanRest of worldFigure 6:European and American customers showed a renewed appetite for luxury in 2022,as did Asian markets outside of China and JapanNote:S

66、egments may not total 100%due to roundingSource:Bain&CompanyShare of global personal luxury goods market,by consumer nationality(billions)Share of global personal luxury goods market,by region(billions)JapaneseChineseRest of worldOther AsianEuropeanAmericanJapanChinaRest of worldRest of AsiaEuropeAm

67、ericas201917%22%10%33%13%6%281202122%24%30%32%6%8%21%23%11%13%4%6%2902022E22%24%32%34%6%8%17%19%13%15%4%6%353201928132%30%8%11%15%4%2021290 26%31%7%21%11%4%2022E27%32%7%17%14%4%35313Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its Covid Rebound Figure 7:The US remained the largest market,while sales

68、in South Korea,France,and the UK were highly concentrated in a single cityFigure 8:Europe surpassed its 2019 levels,thanks to strong domestic demand and an extra boost from touristsSources:Global Blue;Bain analysisEuropean personal luxury goods market,201922E(billions)2019Domesticcustomers Tourists8

69、9202174Domestic growthTourist growth102022E9410US98New YorkMainland ChinaBeijing59Japan24TokyoItaly23MilanSouth Korea21SeoulFrance20ParisUK18LondonGermanyMunich12Top city in countrySource:Bain&CompanyPersonal luxury goods market,top countries 2022E(billions)14Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds

70、 on Its Covid Rebound Figure 9:Emerging countries are poised to gain about 70 million mid-and high-income consumers(40%of Chinas increase since 2014)Notes:Southeast Asia includes Indonesia,Singapore,Malaysia,the Philippines,Vietnam,and Thailand;Africa includes South Africa and NigeriaSource:Bain&Com

71、panyForecasted number of new mid-and high-income consumers between 2022 and 2030(percentage relative to Chinas 201422 increase)2030F20222030F20222030F2022IndiaSoutheast AsiaEmerging African countries+35M40M(20%)+20M25M(15%)+10M(5%)1515Distribution trends Brands continued to exert more control over t

72、heir distribution,with directly operated channels increasing in importance again.The retail channel has now reached parity with the wholesale channel.Monobrand stores were boosted by the willingness of customers to return to in-person shopping.Online sales rose 20%from 2021 to 2022 to reach an estim

73、ated 75 billion.The online channels market share remained in line with 2021.Monobrand websites gained further ground,raising their share to about 45%of the online segment,up from 43%in 2021.Department stores experienced faster growth than in previous years,gaining 20%.That reflected a renewed value

74、proposition in the US and successful reengagement with tourists in Europe.The secondhand luxury goods market rose to 43 billion in 2022.Sales growth accelerated to 28%,equivalent to 1.3 times the growth rate for new luxury goods.That ratio has come down from 3.4 times in 2018.The US and Europe still

75、 command the lions share of the market,but Asia(especially China)accelerated as consumer acceptance increased.Internationally,secondhand growth was aided by sustained demand for watches,which account for 60%70%of the total market.As sales of secondhand goods on online platforms soared,brands are mov

76、ing to increase their direct control of the market.16Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its Covid Rebound Note:Growth shown at current exchange ratesSource:Bain&CompanyGlobal personal luxury goods market,by distribution channel and format(billions)201912%13%6%31%20%18%281202122%12%33%16%15%

77、2902022E21%12%34%15%15%35320%19%40%26%15%20%YOY growth202122EOnlineOutletTravel retailMonobrandSpecialtyDepartment storeFigure 11:Monobrand stores saw strong growth in 2022 while the online channels market share normalized;travel retail was revitalized but remains far below prepandemic levelsNote:Gr

78、owth shown at current exchange ratesSource:Bain&CompanyGlobal personal luxury goods market,by channel(billions)2010287216711297118612307020713326821214326821915356524516366424417376325418386226219406028120465422021495129022E50%50%35311%3%CAGR201022E16%2%CAGR201922E23%20%YOYgrowth202122E Owned retail

79、WholesaleFigure 10:Owned retail gained further ground and is now on par with wholesale17Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its Covid Rebound Figure 12:The online luxury market grew at double-digit rates,in line with the overall market;monobrand online stores continued to gain shareNote:Grow

80、th shown at current exchange ratesSource:Bain&CompanyGlobal online personal luxury goods market(billions)201730%23201935%332021 43%632022E Monobrand sites 45%75+30B+12B9%12%22%21%+10BShare of luxury market online+92%vs.2019+44%vs.2017+20%vs.2021Figure 13:The secondhand luxury market continued to exp

81、andSource:Bain&CompanySecondhand vs.new luxury goods market(indexed to 100 in 2017)139201720182019202020212022E103111861141001111291411662123.4xYOY 2017181.3xYOY 202122ESecondhandNew43BEstimated marketvalue in 2022Annual growth of secondhand market vs.new market 1818Individual category performance A

82、ll personal luxury goods categories performed well in 2022,with double-digit growth rates across the board.All categories have now recovered to 2019 levels or better,with hard luxury,leather goods,and apparel leading the resurgence following the pandemic.Accessories remained the largest personal lux

83、ury goods category and grew by 21%23%.Within accessories,leather goods grew by 23%25%,far surpassing its pre-Covid levels(up 39%41%compared with 2019).Iconic models and new hero products were the most desirable items.Recognizable brand signifiers(whether a shape,a piece of metalware,a material,or a

84、monogram)remained popular.Small leather goods gained further traction.The leather goods category has benefited from a generalized price increase(from the most expensive products to entry-level items)that didnt hamper volume growth.Between 2021 and 2022,about 70%of leather category growth has been dr

85、iven by price increases;by contrast,price increases accounted for only about 50%of category growth from 2019 to 2021.The apparel category grew by 22%24%in 2022,aided by wardrobe restocking.Womenswear and menswear grew at about the same pace.“Post-streetwear”is emerging as the new look.It maintains s

86、ome elements of streetwear(such as gender fluidity,a disregard for occasion,inclusiveness,and sports-driven inspiration),but goes beyond its style codes through new and enhanced techniques,materials,and functions.Beauty reached 69 billion,up a“mere”14%16%on 2021(but still double its pre-Covid growth

87、 rate in 2019).The makeup and fragrances categories led growth.Travel retail is in recovery mode,at least in Western markets,but not yet back on its pre-Covid track.Watches have evolved from a challenged category to the new object of desire.Sales of new watches grew by 22%24%and reached a record 52

88、billion,reflecting solid demand for top-of-the-range models and iconic pieces,but growth was capped by low product availability.Sales of secondhand watches,estimated at an additional 2530 billion,rapidly grew in 2022,fueled by the appetite of Generation Z and millennials for investment and resale op

89、portunities,given the high resilience of the category during crises.19Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its Covid Rebound Jewelry sales in 2022 are estimated to have risen to 28 billion,up 23%25%from 2021.Brands invested heavily(and successfully)to fuel demand.“Uber-luxury”jewelry outperfo

90、rmed globally,as did iconic pieces and lines.Fashion jewelry showed solid growth.Shoes grew by 20%22%compared with 2021 to reach 28 billion.Heels and formal shoes are now back to their 2019 levels.Casual categories,such as fussbett sandals and Wellington boots,are on the rise.20Renaissance in Uncert

91、ainty:Luxury Builds on Its Covid Rebound Note:Growth shown at current exchange ratesSource:Bain&CompanyGlobal personal luxury goods market,by category(billions)Leather80Apparel74Beauty69Watches52Shoes28Jewelry2823%25%20%22%22%24%23%25%22%24%14%16%YOY growth,202122E39%41%34%36%29%31%36%38%15%17%13%15

92、%Overall growth,201922EFigure 15:All categories have well exceeded their 2019 levelsNotes:Growth shown at current exchange rates;hard luxury includes jewelry and watchesSource:Bain&CompanyGlobal personal luxury goods market,by category(billions)2010167111861220713212142191524516244172541826219281202

93、202129022E3539%4%7%5%CAGR201022ECAGR201922E21%23%22%24%23%25%14%16%YOYgrowth202122E10%10%5%5%AccessoriesApparelHard luxuryBeautyFigure 14:Accessories remained the largest category while apparel and hard luxury grew the fastest21Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its Covid Rebound Note:Growt

94、h shown at current exchange ratesSource:Bain&CompanyGlobal luxury watch market,at gross merchandise value(billions)2014844New2019552022E25307782374015524%CAGR20141912%14%CAGR201922ESecondhandFigure 16:Luxury watches have been rediscovered and moved from a challenged category to the new object of des

95、ire2222Outlook for the future Luxury brands have faced three years of tremendous turbulence and uncertainty,but the industry shows more strength,resilience,and ability to innovate than before.Profit levels that had quickly recovered post-Covid to an average 21%in 2021 have slightly eroded in 2022,do

96、wn to 19%21%.While the industry has benefited from increased prices and a continued shift to higher-margin direct channels,the lower profit levels reflect luxury brands investment in future growth,particularly through increased marketing spending and ambitious transformation programs.However,the pro

97、fit erosion also reflects higher energy prices and increased labor costs.None of this has stopped brands from investing in modernizing their operations,especially through more robust information technology infrastructure to support the ongoing digitalization of the industry,and through a reconfigura

98、tion of their store networks(primarily through renovation and relocation projects).The robust performance in 2022 suggests that growth should stay healthy for the personal luxury goods market in the medium term.We expect that solid market fundamentals will result in annual growth rates between 5%and

99、 7%until 2030.We therefore forecast that the market value of personal luxury goods will rise to between 540 billion and 580 billion by the end of the present decade,from an estimated 353 billion in 2022an increase of more than 50%.Four growth engines will profoundly reshape the luxury market by 2030

100、:Chinese consumers should regain their pre-Covid status as the dominant nationality for luxury,growing to represent 38%40%of global purchases.Mainland China should overcome the Americas and Europe to become the biggest luxury market globally(25%27%of global purchases).Younger generations(Generations

101、 Y,Z,and Alpha)will become the biggest buyers of luxury by far,representing 80%of global purchases.Online should become the leading channel for luxury purchases with an estimated 32%34%market share,followed by monobrand stores(30%32%market share).23Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its Cov

102、id Rebound By 2030,luxury should have expanded beyond its traditional business model,typically defined by sales of products,transcending an original form rooted in craftmanship and functional excellence.Broader meanings and business models will emerge.We expect that the growth of new types of activi

103、ties,often powered by technology,will result in an additional 60 billion to 120 billion of luxury industry sales.This could include revenues generated by:the metaverse and NFTs(such as through collectibles and other new products and services);the monetization of communities(through virtual events an

104、d data monetization,for instance);brand-related media content(such as movies,music,and art);secondhand luxury goods(by bringing more secondhand sales in-house,for instance);and“3.0 experiences”(such as virtual stores,digital shopping assistants,and ultra-luxury travel and hospitality).24Renaissance

105、in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its Covid Rebound Figure 17:Profitability slightly decreased in 2022 as players invest in growth(marketing,renovations,IT,transformation costs)while facing inflationFigure 18:Solid market fundamentals should lead to a positive medium-term trajectory for personal luxur

106、y goods(with potential bumps along the way)18%16%19%21%12%21%19%21%Note:EBIT is earnings before interest and taxesSource:Bain&Company EBIT margin of selected personal luxury goods brands2007080910111223%13141516171820192122ENote:F indicates forecasted growthSource:Bain&Company Global personal luxury

107、 goods market(billions)5405802812202903533603802019202020212022E2023F2030F5%7%2022E30F CAGR6%7%201930F CAGR25Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its Covid Rebound European 17%American 22%Japanese 10%Chinese 33%Other Asian 13%Rest of world 6%281 22%24%32%34%6%8%17%19%13%15%4%6%35316%18%21%23%

108、5%7%38%40%13%15%4%6%540580Europe 32%Americas 30%Japan 8%China 11%Rest of Asia 15%Rest of world 4%28127%32%7%17%14%4%353 23%25%23%25%6%8%25%27%14%16%4%6%540580Note:Segments may not total 100%due to roundingSource:Bain&CompanyShare of global personal luxury goods market(billions)NationalityRegion20192

109、022E2030F20192022E2030FNotes:Segments may not total 100%due to rounding;generations defined by birth year(Silent Generation 192845,baby boomers 194664,Generation X 196580,Generation Y 19811995,Generation Z 19962015,Generation Alpha 2016present)Source:Bain&CompanyShare of global personal luxury goods

110、 market(billions)GenerationChannel20192022E2030F20192022E2030FGen Z 8%Gen Y 36%Gen X 30%Baby boomers 23%28118%47%25%11%35325%30%50%20%540580Other brickand mortar 57%Monobrand 31%Online 12%28144%34%21%35335%37%30%32%32%34%540580Silent GenerationGen Alpha 5%Figure 19a:By 2030,Chinese consumers should

111、become the top personal luxury goods customers again and China the biggest marketFigure 19b:By 2030,Gen Y should become the primary personal luxury goods buyers;online and monobrand stores will be the leading channels26Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its Covid Rebound AppendixAbout the B

112、ain Luxury Goods Worldwide Market StudyBain&Company analyzes for Fondazione Altagamma the market and financial performance of more than 280 leading luxury goods companies and brands.This database,known as the Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Observatory,has become a leading and much-studied source in t

113、he international luxury goods industry.Bain has published its annual findings in the Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study since 2000.The studys lead author is Claudia DArpizio,a Bain partner in Milan.Fondazione Altagamma is led by Matteo Lunelli,who was named chairman in 2020.Bains insights are based

114、 on triangulating information and sources available as of November 10,2022,including:data regarding the outbreak of Covid-19 and consequential lockdowns across countries;macroeconomic data(e.g.,GDP,consumer confidence index)and latest forecasts;current trading performance from relevant luxury indust

115、ry players;annual reports,quarterly results,and analyst reports;and consensus of 100-plus expert interviews.The scenarios do not consider disruptive changes to the Covid-19 status quo(e.g.,potential future waves of Covid-19 related to variations of the virus)nor to the global sociopolitical situatio

116、n.27Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its Covid Rebound Source:Bain&CompanyBottom-up and top-down estimatesRevenues at retail equivalent valueRevenues at retail sales value represent total sales valued at retail price(final price paid by consumers at point of purchase).Each players consoli

117、dated sales are brought back to retail sales value through the following methodology:Player2Player.TotalPlayer1Player3Player282Bottom-up sum of retail sales value by brandTop-down cross-checks Category-specific data in the main geographical markets Comparison of market breakdown and turnover breakdo

118、wn of key players Expert interviews(top management of brands,distributors,department stores)Consistency check and fine-tuningApplication of estimated markups by geography and categoryApplication of estimated royalty rates and markups by geography andproduct categoryRetailWholesale at retail valueLic

119、enses at retail value=Player sales at retail value+RetailWholesale Licenses=Player consolidated sales+Figure 20:Methodology of the study28Renaissance in Uncertainty:Luxury Builds on Its Covid Rebound Key contacts in Bains Luxury Goods practiceEurope,Middle East,and AfricaClaudia DArpizio in Milan()F

120、ederica Levato in Milan()Stefano Fenili in Milan()Xavier Bersillon in Paris()Mathilde Haemmerl in Paris()Marc-Andr Kamel in Paris(marc-)Jolle de Montgolfier in Paris()Nathalie Remy in Paris()Miltiadis Athanassiou in Zurich()Sanjay Dhiri in London()AmericasAaron Cheris in San Francisco()Monisha De La

121、 Rocha in New York()Sarah Elk in Chicago()Naftali Israel in Boston()Erika Serow in New York()Suzanne Tager in New York()Asia-PacificBruno Lannes in Shanghai()Weiwen Han in Hong Kong()Weiwei Xing in Hong Kong()Bold ideas.Bold teams.Extraordinary results.Bain&Company is a global consultancy that helps

122、 the worlds most ambitious change makers define the future.Across 64 cities in 39 countries,we work alongside our clients as one team with a shared ambition to achieve extraordinary results,outperform the competition,and redefine industries.We complement our tailored,integrated expertise with a vibr

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