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1、EMEA Research&StrategyJanuary 20232023 Property PredictionsA year of challenges and opportunities“2|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.We enter the new year facing an unprecedented set of challenges that will shape the real estate industry over the next twelve months.The war in Ukrai

2、ne continues to loom large,affecting global commodity markets and trade flows;an energy shock is driving inflation and a cost-of-living crisis for households across Europe;and central banks are raising rates pushing up borrowing costs and forcing a repricing of risk and return across all asset marke

3、ts,including real estate.The outlook is far from all being bad news.In fact,inflation now looks to have peaked,the majority of repricing has been completed or will conclude in H1,and even as we enter this period of slow growth(or recession),there is light at the end of the tunnel.A recovery looks li

4、ke it will take shape in the second half of the year.Looking to the year ahead we can see the continuation of a number of cyclical and structural adjustments.Sustainability and ESG continue to move up the agenda for investors and occupiers,and exciting new work in the arena such as on green leases a

5、nd retrofitting will accelerate.Firms will continue to experiment to find the right balance of hybrid working for them,bringing in new data,analytics,and partnerships to address the expanding complexity of real estate management.Tom Carroll EMEA Head of Research&StrategyAfter years as the black shee

6、p of the family,the Retail sector is back in the fray,predicting stronger returns and a shift into bricks and mortar for previously online-only sellers.Meanwhile,Hotels in gateway markets expect to benefit from the inflow of capital from Asian and Middle Eastern investors looking to deploy capital f

7、rom high energy export receipts.The affordability challenge in resi will continue to mount,pushing more households into the rental sector and enhancing the premium on energy efficiency homes in these expensive times.Energy efficiency and future-proofing buildings for the transition to Net Zero is a

8、theme across the other sectors too,progress on which could mean the difference between a“green premium”and the risk of a stranded asset.Whilst conditions will be difficult,I feel positive about the year ahead and hope,on reading my teams predictions,you will be able to share my optimism.We look forw

9、ard to discussing these,and our other views,with you in 2023.Contents3|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.SustainabilityLegislation avalanche will drive the ESG transitionOperational carbon will be embedded in due diligenceGreen leases will transform landlord-tenant relationshipEcono

10、micsLight at the end of the growth tunnelInflation will decline but will leave a legacyThe era of cheap money is overFuture of WorkHybrid implementationDynamic operationsEcosystem of partnershipsCapital MarketsRecovery to begin in 2023 as inflation subsidesPrivate RE markets will catch up with publi

11、c ones2023 is not 2008:systemic risk is absent OfficesOccupier expansion to slowSectors driving demand to changeRefurbishments to accelerateIndustrial&LogisticsHeightened risk of obsolescence Supply chains continue to become more regionalGrowing emphasis on future-proofing buildingsRetailLuxury mark

12、et forecast to grow despite recession fearsMore online retailers are turning to physical retail spaceQuality retail stock on track to deliver higher returnsLivingImproving energy efficiency to drive up asset valuesHousing under-supply will continue to worsenFall in house sales to create all-time hig

13、h rental demand 3HotelsLimited service and luxury will do best in 2023Asian&Middle Eastern investors to dominate in 2023Rising finance costs risk driving forced hotel sales 3Contacts0102030405060708091001 SustainabilityCityNationalSustainability|Legislation avalanche will drive the ESG transition5|2

14、023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Forthcoming legislation across all jurisdictions will become the principal driver of the ESG transition across EuropeDcret Tertiaire:Mandates 40%whole building energy consumption reduction by 2030 on 2010-19 baselineMEES*:Proposed EPC B by 2030 with

15、consultation on a move to operational ratingsEnergy performance standard for buildings:All new buildings from 2021 are to be nearly zero-energy buildings(NZEB)RegionalAmsterdam:50%of refurbishment and maintenance operations to follow circular construction principles by 202520%of all new homes to be

16、constructed using timber as primary material from 2025London:Whole Life-Cycle Carbon AssessmentsParis:Design for Reuse Principles-30%of new office space to be adaptable by 2030,rising to 50%by 2050RE2020-building performance regulation considers entire life-cycle carbon impactTCFD*:Will be mandatory

17、 in the UK from 2025;sets requirements to provide climate data that will enable better informed pricing of the risks and opportunitiesEU Taxonomy&SFDR*:Provides a uniform language that helps to distinguish which investments contribute to the European environmental objectives.Funds are required to di

18、sclose the ESG objectives of their product,with the first reporting period year-end Dec 2022Fit for 55*:Through a revisassociated with the net zero transitionion of climate-,energy-and transport-related legislation,the EU aims to cut emissions by 55%by 2030,an intermediate step to climate neutrality

19、 by 2050Managing the transition and transition risk will become a key component of portfolio managementSource:JLL.*SFDR=Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation.TCFD=Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosure.MEES=Minimum Energy Efficiency Standard.Sustainability|Operational carbon will be e

20、mbedded in due diligence6|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Source:CRREM Survey on Transition Risk in Real Estate(April 2022).*Operational carbon=total greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions(often simplified to“carbon”)during the operational or in-use phase of a building.This includes heating

21、,cooling,ventilation,lighting,and operation of appliances within the building.Measurement of operational carbon will become a standard part of the due diligence processOperational carbon*continues to drive the majority of due diligence discussions around ESG,with energy efficiency capex transactions

22、 used as a negotiating tool for brown discounts across Europe 64%of investors have/would turn down investment opportunities due to concerns over ESG standardsESG metrics are now a standard part of the due diligence process:Maximise liquidity&pricingOperational carbon targets Whole life carbon costin

23、gNet Zero waterZero wasteBiodiversityEmployment&skillsLocal economyCommunity engagementUser well-beingSocial innovationSocialGovernanceStakeholder commitments(JV agreements,green leases,data coverage)EnvironmentSustainability|Green leases will transform landlord-tenant relationship7|2023 Jones Lang

24、LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Source:JLL.Tenant engagement is imperative to reaching Net Zero carbon goalsLandlord&tenant goals overlapGreen leases will move beyond boilerplate green clauses and include KPIs around energy reduction and data sharing.Green leases provide cost effective solutions

25、to align on and achieve sustainable objectives.However,they require collaboration from both parties to agree on co-investment opportunities,cost-sharing models and incentives for sustainable tenants.The rise in energy prices creates a synergy with landlord/tenant win/win conversations.For example,in

26、 order to drive transition costs down,there is a clear opportunity for the acceleration of integration of renewables as primary energy sources.Investor value drivers:Reduce carbon emissionsReduce wasteLower operating costsImprove occupancy ratesIncrease tenant satisfactionReduce financing costsReduc

27、e riskOccupier value drivers:Reduce carbon emissionsReduce wasteLower operating costsImprove well-beingIncrease productivityImprove engagement&collaborationThe traditional landlord-tenant relationship will transform into new,more collaborative business models driven by green leases.Achieving sustain

28、ability goalsImproving human value propositionInvestor responsibilityOccupier responsibility02 Economics8587899193959799101103-1012345678Pre-recession peak GDP=100Quarters from recession startEurozone:Real GDPCurrent crisis:c.-1.0%Covid-19 recession:-14.4%Euro crisis:-1.8%Global Financial Crisis:-5.

29、7%1990s recession:-1.9%Economics|Light at the end of the growth tunnel9|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Source:Oxford Economics,forecasts from 6th December 2022;JLL.A short and shallow downturn will see a recovery commence in the second half of the yearQ3 2022Q4 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023

30、Q3 2023Q4 2023Eurozone+Germany+France+Italy+Spain+Netherlands+UK+GDP growth(positive or negative),quarter on quarterEconomics|Inflation will decline but will leave a legacy10|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Source:Consensus Forecasts,October&November 2022;JLL.Temporarily high infl

31、ation will leave its mark on economies and real estate 02468101220192020202120222023202420252026CPI inflation forecast(%YoY)NetherlandsUKGermanyFranceForecastLegacy of temporarily high inflationFuture inflation will be higher but not muchPrice level will remain elevatedRelative value will be distort

32、edDisplace complacency about inflation risksImplications for real estateConstruction cost impact on future supplyRisk of over-reacting to short-term dynamicsChanges to CPI indexation for leasesEconomics|The era of cheap money is over11|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Source:Refini

33、tiv;JLL.Data from 12th December 2022.Policy rates will overshoot“neutral”to defeat inflation,then will be lowered again Central banks will keep raising policy rates until it is clear that inflation is defeatedThey will overshoot“neutral”(deliberately)then have to cut rates again to support growthBen

34、chmark rates will not again see their post-GFC levels:The era of cheap money is over!Neutral policy rates will be lower than in the past:interest rate sensitivity has increased0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.00Dec-22Feb-23Apr-23Jun-23Aug-23Oct-23Dec-23Feb-24Apr-24Jun-24Aug-24Oct-24Dec-24Fe

35、b-25Apr-25Jun-25Aug-25Oct-25Dec-25Market interest rate expectations(%)Bank of England Bank RateECB Deposit RateCurrent ECB deposit Rate=1.50%Current BoE Bank Rate=3.00%03 Future of WorkWork Dynamics|Hybrid implementation13|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Aligning workspace,technol

36、ogy and HR policies is essential to successfully operationalizing hybrid workingof corporates consider operationalising hybrid work models a top priority between now and 202556%of organizations have already or will introduce tech this year to boost in-office collaboration69%of organizations to make

37、remote working permanently available to all employees by 202553%of corporates have/are planning to make all office spaces open and collaborative,with no dedicated desk spaces73%46%40%25%29%19%20%7%7%2%4%Remote workingtechnologyIn-office collaborationtechnologyAlready in placePlan to introduce this y

38、earPlan to introduce over next three yearsNo plans to introduceDont knowQ.Which of the following options best describes hybrid working in your organization?Businesses expect to increase the level of flexibility they offer to meet employee expectations:Employee choice set to overtake fixed office day

39、sThe future office will be open and a space for collaboration:This will be facilitated by greater technology infrastructureQ:Which technologies does your organization plan to introduce between now and 2025?45%20%13%12%8%3%11%22%25%21%17%6%9%11%24%23%25%8%No or limitedhybrid workingFixed office daysP

40、ercentage oftime on siteA function-drivenapproachEmployee choiceDont knowBefore COVID-19TodayBy 2025Source:JLL Future of Work Survey,August 2022.N=1095 responses.Work Dynamics|Dynamic operations14|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Real-time monitoring that drives decision-making and

41、 transforms operationsof organizations are collecting data on an ongoing or real-time basis and leveraging advanced forms of analysisOnly 13%of CRE decision-makers are prioritizing improving operational efficiency and portfolio resilience53%of corporates plan to accelerate or maintain investment in

42、leveraging data analytics to enable real time decision making,mitigate risk,and ensuring compliance85%A lack of data and tech maturity is holding occupiers back from executing their CRE priorities at pace:Expanding the scope and depth of real-time data collection will help corporates boost portfolio

43、 agility and flexibilityThe level of investment in technology increases the capacity to innovateSource:JLL(2022)Technology and innovation in the hybrid ageHow to drive performance and resilience through tech&data:1.Sensors to introduce sustainability technologies to improve environmental performance

44、2.Monitor space and workplaces to maximise efficiency3.Use predictive maintenance/management to improve the efficiency of building systems4.Introduce data science and modelling techniques and governance process to act on recommendations5.Consider the use of health-tech wellbeing solutions to leapfro

45、g the competitionSource:JLL Future of Work Survey,August 2022.N=1095 responses.Work Dynamics|Ecosystem of partnerships15|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Expanding networks to address emerging complexities for real estateof EU building stock is not efficient enough to comply with f

46、uture carbon reduction targets97%of leading CRE functions anticipate more reliance on external partners75%organizations are looking to outsource more around health&wellbeing and sustainability4-in-10predict they will require more outsourcing support for renewable energy supply and sourcing over the

47、next three years43%Organizations are not equipped to tackle the challenges,risks and opportunities of the future of work alone:Instead,they will need to rely more on alliances,partnerships and outsourcing City Governments/Academia/Non ProfitReal Estate Owners/Investors/LendersCorporate Occupiers/End

48、 UsersBy working with partners,corporates are also looking to reduce costs and risks,whilst optimizing operationsIncreasingly,legislation will impact real estate.Partnerships are the way forwardDrive greater harmonization and consistency in the approach towards common goalsPooling financial resource

49、s to enable the transition to a low-carbon economyCollaborative and coordinated business modelsShare the wisdom and scale best practiceTechnology solutions will facilitate the transitionSource:JLL Future of Work Survey,August 2022.N=1095 responses.04 Capital MarketsCapital Markets|Recovery to begin

50、in 2023 as inflation subsides17|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Falling inflation will provide more visibility on underwriting,underpinning the start of a recovery in investment 96.894.69095100105110Jan-19Jun-19Nov-19Apr-20Sep-20Feb-21Jul-21Dec-21May-22Oct-22Global bid intensity*(

51、2019=100)100:bidding intensity above historic norms.100:bidding intensity below historic norms.Global bid intensity has fallen to a level below that during the global pandemic.As we look ahead to 2023,falling inflation,stabilising debt markets and a return to growth will underpin a turnaround in the

52、 investment market.Source:JLL.*Index is a proprietary composite index of average number of bids,Variability of bids,and winning bid vs asking price.When above 100,private capital markets are more intense than historic norms.Capital Markets|Private RE markets will catch up with public ones18|2023 Jon

53、es Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Source:JLL,Green Street.*Net income yield,forecast from Q3 2022Yields will continue to adjust up through 2023 as private markets close the gap with public ones2.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.0Western Europe weighted prime yield(Office,%)3.753.254.755.252.02.53.03.54

54、.04.55.05.520182019202020212022202320242025Prime office yield forecast*(%)ParisBerlinLondonWarsaw2026Prime yields will continue to move up in 2023 before plateauing then compressing again in later years.Capital Markets|2023 is not 2008:systemic risk is absent 19|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All ri

55、ghts reserved.Source:JLL.Expect pressure to build around the periphery but no systemic risk to emerge.This will create opportunities30040050060070080090010001100120030035040045050055060020042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Western Europe capital

56、 value and rental indices(Office)GFC2022 Capital values and rents both collapse as market priced systemic risk Capital values adjust as debt becomes more expensive again.Rents continue to growRental index(RHS)Capital values index(LHS)05 OfficesOffice|Occupier expansion to slow21|2023 Jones Lang LaSa

57、lle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Source:JLL.Occupiers face an increasingly difficult balance of cost pressure and a need to transform portfoliosFootprint reductionWage inflationESG Targets/green footprintStronger rental indexationWorkplace diversityESG targetsFit-out cost increasesMargin squeezeEnergy

58、/service cost hikesIndoor qualityMore high quality spaceOn balance,cost pressures will result in a slowdown in expansionary demand,heightened sublease activity/grey space and a focus on renewals and regearsOffice|Sectors driving demand to change22|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.S

59、ource:JLL.*Sector leasing represents a proxy:The data refers to the top 100 most active tenants over the last decade in the UK,Paris,Germany,Amsterdam,Brussels,Dublin,Madrid and Barcelona.Tech sector take up to decline and be(mostly)replaced by demand from Professional Services firms0%5%10%15%20%25%

60、Banking&FinanceGovernementManufacturingTechProfessionalServicesSector demand*(top 100 most active tenants)2017-2021Q1-Q3 2022 Tech accounted for over 20%of office take up between 2017 and 2021.More subdued Tech sector activity will weigh on 2023 office demand.Professional Services firms will pick up

61、 most,but not all,of the slack.Total“new office”take up in 2023 is forecast to fall by 5%on 2022.Many Tech sector companies recently invested in growth space.Some will attempt to release this back into the market by sublease.New sublease space is likely to compete with high quality pipeline offices.

62、This will increase availability and potentially ease some of the rental growth in this part of the market.Office|Refurbishments to accelerate23|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Source:JLL.*If the frame and foundations are kept,refurbishments can save up to 50%in embodied carbon com

63、pared to a new build.Supply constrains on new development and dwindling demand for older space will support rise in refurbishmentsRising energy costs will hasten the move towards more efficient buildingsMore cost-efficient option than new buildSupply contraints will highlight the value of,and need f

64、or,refurbishments Avoids the risk of stranded assets More sustainable than a demolished/new-build office by up to 50%*02468101214161820Future occupational requirementsFuture development pipelinesq.ft.(millions)UK future NZC office demand and NZC pipelineIn the UK 19.2 million sq.ft of future occupat

65、ional requirements will be focused on Net Zero Carbon buildings.The current pipeline for new stock does not support even half of this.Refurbished office space will be required if the market is to meet demand for Net Zero Carbon buildings06 Industrial&LogisticsLogistics|Heightened risk of obsolescenc

66、e 25|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Source:JLL.Image from UK Green Building Council.Non-ESG compliant buildings are more at risk of becoming functionally obsoleteMajor corporates will increasingly seek to decarbonise their logistics(transport and buildings)in order to:reduce thei

67、r energy costsmeet regulatory demandssatisfy customers and shareholdersThe role of real estate will expand beyond operational energy efficiency to adopt a whole life embodied carbon approach and embrace wider ESG goals.Logistics space needs to support green transport modes including charging station

68、s.New building standards accelerated by the large rise in energy prices.Prime buildings must be:energy efficient(sensors,automatic systems)produce renewable energy and capacityAs occupiers align production and suppliers with cost control measures,investors and lenders focus on buildings that provide

69、 efficiencies to meet these aims.GLP BREEAM excellent,Magnitude 314,Milton Keynes,UK26|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Logistics|Supply chains continue to become more regionalReshoring suppliers and some production is underway to control supply chain costs and reduce riskSource:JL

70、L.The risk of supply chain disruptions due to geopolitical events and natural disasters is expected to increase and create significant cost increases over the long term.The trend to regionalise some production and supply networks will accelerate.New logistics facilities will agglomerate in markets s

71、trategic to new manufacturing sitesStrategically-located secondary and tertiary markets have potential to broaden occupier baseLand availability will define market potential Europes gateway hubs will remain important links for regional supply chainsProducts from nearshoring countries will still be r

72、outed through major European seaports(e.g.Rotterdam).Despite an accelerating reshoring trend,APAC region will likely retain over 50%of productionAdditional suppliers of raw materials and parts will come from and near Europe.27|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Logistics|Growing emph

73、asis on future-proofing buildingsResilience achieved through location,building specifications,and market fundamentalsIn line with long term trends impacting warehouse operations,labour availability,energy,and where and how goods are produced and transported,resiliency in rental revenues refers to bu

74、ildings that meet current and future occupier requirements and,therefore,investor standards:A secure income stream(strong tenant covenant and/or relatively long term to lease expiry)Tenants in robust business sectors(e.g.grocery/discounters/automobile parts)Modern,energy efficient,sustainable buildi

75、ngs with access to good transportation infrastructureBuildings in locations that are characterised by limited supply and strong competition for land Accessible infill sites for urban logistics(B2B,B2C,and light industrial uses)Buildings that can serve a diverse range of occupiers and create cost eff

76、iciencies through design and energy usageMore resilient,or future-proof,buildings will see greater demand and command higher rents and lower yields07 Retail29|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Retail|Luxury market forecast to grow despite recession fearsLuxury market in 2023 set to

77、be more resilient to recession than during the 2009 global financial crisisSource:JLL,Statista,Bain&Company(November 2022).Luxury retail sales are expected to rise in 2023 and beyond,driven by growing demand from ultra-wealthy individuals and younger shoppersThe global luxury retail market has becom

78、e more resilient to financial shocks as the share of sales from ultra-wealthy individuals has grown from 35%in 2009 to 40%in 2022Luxury retailers are also increasing sales by targeting younger shoppers through strong digital communication and expansion of the product rangeLuxury retailers continue t

79、o expand their physical retail footprint.This includes new store concepts,supported by technology that blurs the boundaries between online and stores.0204060801001202014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027Annual revenue(billion)European revenue by luxury segmentLuxury Ey

80、ewearLuxury FashionLuxury Leather GoodsLuxury Watches&JewelryPrestige Cosmetics&Fragrances30|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Retail|More online retailers are turning to physical retail spaceDwindling margins are pushing online retailers to adopt an omni-channel approachSource:Comp

81、any Reports;*Trailing 12 months of published financial results(TTM).Profit margins have taken a hit among online retailers due to weakening consumer demand,over-expansion and rising costs.Online retailers are changing operating models to improve margins.This includes investments in non-retail sector

82、s,measures to cut fulfilment costs,and higher return fees for customers.Some online retailers are turning to physical retail space,mimicking omni-channel retailers who continue to perform well.Demand for physical retail space will strengthen as physical space contributes to a more profitable and fle

83、xible business model.Financial performance major fashion retailersRevenue,millions,LCU(LHS)Net profit margin(RHS)Zalando(online retailer)ASOS(online retailer)Next(omni-channel)H&M(omni-channel)0%1%2%3%0246810120%1%2%3%4%5%6%0501001502002500%5%10%15%0246-2%0%2%4%6%01234531|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,

84、Inc.All rights reserved.Retail|Quality retail stock on track to deliver higher returnsAs pandemic-related effects ease,long-term rental growth for prime retail space will support higher returnsSource:Source:JLL Research;The European growth forecast is based on a weighted average for High Street reta

85、il and an unweighted average for Shopping Centers.-20-15-10-50510201820192020202120222023202420252026European prime capital value growth(%YoY)High StreetShopping CentreThe Covid-19 pandemic has caused a major correction in capital values for quality retail stock as yields moved-out and rental income

86、 fell.The impact of recent interest rate rises has been relatively limited on prime retail yields,most notably for prime shopping centres,supported by a strong collection of rents and conservative lending.More affordable retail rents levels,coupled with a recovery in footfall and tourism,will likely

87、 result in solid prime rental growth once inflation eases.As a result of forecast rental growth and a moderate impact of interest rate rises,prime retail assets are expected to deliver solid returns over the next 5 years.Forecast08 Living32|2022 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.33|2023

88、Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Living|Improving energy efficiency to drive up asset valuesEnergy efficiency of homes will be at the forefront of tenants and purchasers concernsDespite government measures across Europe aiming to curb the effects of the cost-of-living crisis,households

89、will continue to spend record-high shares of their income on energy billsExpected high inflation across Europe will continue to drive high rental growth,especially in less regulated markets such as the UK.Affordability of housing energy will remain a fundamental issue for tenants.Landlords will not

90、be able to pursue high rental growth indefinitely as tenants will not be able to bear the additional costs of high bills and rising rent.Hence,energy efficiency will become a number one concern for both tenants and landlords,as it allows for tenants to lower operating costs,and for landlords to char

91、ge higher rents in less tense housing markets.Energy-efficient homes are expected to benefit from a green premium,encouraging landlords to retrofit their assets or invest in the most energy-efficient onesSource:Oxford Economics;JLL.*Average share of household energy spending in total household perso

92、nal disposable income,nominal,local currency terms.2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%Share of household income spent on energy*Range 2010-20222022202334|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Living|Housing under-supply will continue to worsenConstruction slowdowns will exacerbate supply-demand imbalances

93、As the housing sector construction activity contracted by the most since May 2020,the delivery of new housing units is set to slow down,further deepening the housing shortage across EuropeInput cost inflation,reflecting supply shortages and rising energy and transport costs,will lead to a slow-down

94、of forward-funding deals as investors will remain cautious,prioritizing high-quality developments in prime locations.Overall,the slow-down in new housing construction and the drop in the number of building permits are expected to deepen the housing shortage across Europe.Population growth is expecte

95、d to continue to outpace growth in new housing supply.In 2023,we expect to see a divergence in construction output across Europe.While the fall in supply will be felt in most markets,some countries will adapt faster and emerge as relative winners,while others will continue to struggle with runaway c

96、osts and supply shortages for another year.Despite cyclical macroeconomic effects that will put home prices under pressure in the short term,deepening housing shortages and strong fundamentals will continue to drive real price growth in the longer termSource:Oxford Economics;JLL.90100110120130140150

97、20152016201720182019202020212022European construction cost index:(2015=100,based on 10 markets)RangeAverage35|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Living|Fall in house sales to create all-time high rental demandRising mortgage costs will squeeze out hundreds of thousands of first-time

98、buyers from the property ladder with transactions expected to drop by between 10%and 30%,depending on the market.Higher demand,coupled with housing shortage in major European cities,will continue to underpin long-term stable rental growth.As governments seek a balance between protecting tenants thro

99、ugh rent regulations and encouraging investment into the living sector,investors appetite for the affordable housing sector will continue to grow.0.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8Rent/Buy ratio:Monthly buying costs versus rental costs2015-2022 RangeForecast Q3 2023Record high rental demand and long-term rent

100、al growth will drive investors appetite for the build-to-rent sectorSource:Oxford Economics;Hypo.Mortgage rates are expected to remain above 2021-levels,potentially accelerating the shift from home ownership to renting,underpinned by a change of preferences and demographic trendsSoaring mortgage cos

101、ts will curtail sales and lead to an all-time high in rental demand across EuropeRent is cheaperMortgage is cheaper09 HotelsHotels|Limited service and luxury will do best in 202337|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Despite soaring operating costs,some hotel segments are well placed

102、to weather the storm Luxury hotels are insulated from the downturn and rising costs due to theirability to upwardly adjust average ratesLandlords able to limit their exposure to operating costs will see the least margin compressionThe budget end of the market will also do well as consumers trade dow

103、n while exercising their post-covid pent-up demand for travel/holidaysSignificant pent-up demand is driving travel recovery across Europe Source:JLL.Hotels|Asian&Middle Eastern investors to dominate in 202338|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds

104、 push Asian capital towards Europe,while cash rich Middle East investors are ready to deploy capitalHeightened tensions between the US and China are leading Asian investors to focus on intra-regional and European assets.Safe havens across Europe,including London and Paris,remain key target markets.T

105、he weaker British Pound and Euro relative to other major global currencies are making assets across Europe more attractive.With increased Revenue from energy prices,Middle eastern investors are cash rich and looking to deploy capital.Rising debt costs will add to the other headwinds hotel owners fac

106、e,depleting profit margins.Hotel owners are likely to be required to inject more equity into the capital stack where they have to refinance in the short term.Rising debt costs will impact owners decisions around their hold periods and exit values.Hotels|Rising finance costs risk driving liquidity pr

107、oblems for owners39|2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.Hotel investors due to refinance debt face a sharp rise in costs,which could lead to insolvency or forced sales ContactsHelge ScheunemannGermany Head of RVirginie HouzFrance Head of RJon NealeUK Head of RInes AraguasSpain Head of

108、 RTom MundyEMEA Capital Markets RAlex ColpaertEMEA Markets RTom CarrollEMEA Head of RHannah DwyerEMEA Work Dynamics RLisa GrahamEMEA Logistics RBo GlowaczEMEA Offices RNick WhittenEMEA Living RKim MarkiewiczEMEA Sustainability RTjard MartinusEMEA Retail RDana SalbakEMEA Living RDavid ReaChief Econom

109、ist EMEAJessica JahnsEMEA Hotels&Hospitality RAbout JLL ResearchJLLs research team delivers intelligence,analysis and insight through market leading reports and services that illuminate todays commercial real estate dynamics and identify tomorrows challenges and opportunities.Our more than 500 globa

110、l research professionals track and analyze economic and property trends and forecast future conditions in over 60 countries,producing unrivalled local and global perspectives.Our research and expertise,fueled by real-time information and innovative thinkingaround the world,creates a competitive adva

111、ntage for our clients and drives successful strategies and optimal real estate decisions.About JLLJLL(NYSE:JLL)is a leading professional services firm that specializes in real estate and investment management.JLL shapes the future of real estate for a better world by using the most advanced technolo

112、gy to create rewarding opportunities,amazing spaces and sustainable real estate solutions for our clients,our people and our communities.JLL is a Fortune 500 company with annual revenue of$19.4 billion,operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of more than 102,000 as of September 30,202

113、2.JLL is the brand name,and a registered trademark,of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated.For further information,visit .42|2022 Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.All rights reserved.This publication is the sole property of Jones Lang LaSalle IP,Inc.and must not be copied,reproduced or transmitted in any form o

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