《德勤（Deloitte）：2023年消費品行業展望報告（英文版）（20頁）.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《德勤（Deloitte）：2023年消費品行業展望報告（英文版）（20頁）.pdf（20頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、Pursuit of profitable growth in challenging times2023 consumer products industry outlook22023 consumer products industry outlookContents Methodology 3Introduction 4A good or bad year for the industry?6 Checking in on challenges 8 Labor 8 Supply chain 8 Inflation9Pursuingprofitablegrowth11 Thebestare

2、liketherest11 Differenceinaction11 Embracingthechangingconsumer12 Goingformarketshare14 Creativelytransforming14 Drivingdatathroughsupplychains15 PrioritizingESG16Bringingprofitablegrowthtoyourcompany17Authorsandacknowledgments18Endnotes1932023 consumer products industry outlookDeloittesurveyed150co

3、nsumerproducts executives from an industry proportional mix of food and beverage,household goods,personal care,and apparel companies in November 2022.Most of the companiesaremultinationals,allwithmorethan$500millioninrevenue.Forthisyearsedition,weconductedadditionalsurveyswithexecutivesinJapanandChi

4、na(50ineachcountry)toexpandourviewintothoseuniqueconsumermarkets.Surveyquestionsweredeveloped through an analysis of trending topics found in company communications and disclosures usinganAI-assistedanalyticstool,aswellasthroughinternalsurveysandinterviewswithDeloitteclientleadersineachconsumermarke

5、t.Finally,weconductedafinancialanalysisofconsumerproductscompaniesin the top 30th percentile of performance based on three-year average total shareholder return,return onassets,andeconomicmarginproductivityaswell asthree-yearrevenueandEBITDAgrowthtoensuretheyfitourprofitablegrowthprofile.Methodology

6、42023 consumer products industry outlookIntroductionFeeling a little frazzled?Whiletheindustrybenefitedfromstronggrowthtailwinds,thepastfewyearshavebeenanythingbutplainsailing.Whether you are a food and beverage,household goods,personal care,or apparel company executive,seven in 10respondentssaybein

7、ganexecutiveintheindustryismorestressfultodaythanitwasfiveyearsago.Forthreein10,itisalotmorestressful(seemethodology).In almost any direction you look,the squeeze is on.Recordinflation,supplychainissues,laborshortages,globalconflicts,climatechange,andapotentialrecessioneach in isolation is challengi

8、ng.Combined,theycouldbeoverwhelming.Industryexecutivessurveyedthinkmany,ifnotall,ofthesechallengeswillbewithusinsomeformthroughout2023,andnewsurprisesarenowthenorm.And consumers heads are likely spinning.They have seeneverythingfromlockdownstoreopenings,fear togoouttofree-for-alls,laborpowertopotent

9、iallayoffs,officelifetowork-from-home,hankeringforhomegoodstorevengespendingonservices,andsavingsgrowthtosavings decline,through several cycles and back again.The context keeps changing.Hence,decisions made by individuals also change.Major demographic,political,environmental,technological,and cultur

10、al shifts are underwaythatforecastmorechangetocome.Executivesinoursurveythinkkeepingupwiththechangingconsumerwillbeoneoftheirgreatestchallenges.Consumer products companiesMacro trendsSector trendsClimatechangeRecord inflationEconomicslowdownGeopoliticalinstabilityLaborshortagesSupply chainissuesPriv

11、ate labelcompetitionChangingconsumersChange52023 consumer products industry outlookConsumer products,as an industry,is based on stability andconsistency.Nowthesqueezeandwhipsawofchangecouldmakethisoneofthemostdifficultperiodsto navigate in recent decades.In this environment,perhaps the best signal o

12、f success comes from those whomanagetoachieveprofitablegrowth.Topullthatoff,theymustnowsolveamorecomplexobjectivefunctioninvestingtokeepconsumersengagedwhilefindingwaystodomorewithless.So,whatsetstheseforward-leaningcompaniesapart?Welooktothespecificactionsprofitablegrowthcompanies take to get resul

13、ts.At the highest level,wefindthatprofitablegrowthleadersare:Makinginvestmentsthatwillhelpthemadapttothedemands of the changing consumer,including in direct-to-consumer platforms,product innovation,digital marketing,and analytics.Usingthisopportunitytotrytogrowmarketshare through several means,inclu

14、ding pricing differentiationandinorganicgrowth.Taking creative approaches to transformation and,in some cases,pursuing vertical integration.Improving supply chains by enhancing data capture and transparency.Placing more emphasis on delivering against environmental,social,andgovernance(ESG)goals,even

15、 though the economic environment could make it a continuing challenge.Consumer products,as an industry,is based on stability and consistency.Nowthesqueezeandwhipsawofchange could make this one of the mostdifficultperiodstonavigate in recent decades.62023 consumer products industry outlookConsumerpro

16、ductsexecutivessurveyedareoftwomindsabout the year ahead.On the one hand,they are negative aboutthemacroenvironment.Eightin10respondentssay they are neutral or leaning pessimistic about the global economyandgeopoliticalstability.Sevenin10assumehighenergypricesandhigherinputcostswillbewithusforayearo

17、r longer.The same holds for supply chain challenges and the Russia-Ukraineconflict.1 Atthesametime,despitetheseheadwinds,theyarebullish ontheirowncompanies.Threeinfourareoptimisticabout theircompanysperformance(74%)anditsstrategy(80%).Timewilltellifthatoptimismiswarranted,especiallyasmorethanone-thi

18、rdofthetopperformersinourfinancialanalysishave analysts that cover them forecasting negative earnings persharegrowth.Consumers also bring their perspectives and realities.Globally,fourin10consumerssurveyedfeeltheirfinancialsituationworsenedoverthepastyear.Thissentimentisprevalentacrossincomegroupsan

19、dconnectedtosignificantshiftsinspendingintentions.Lessthanhalf(43%)havepaycheckmoneyleftoverat the end of the month after expenses.Only one in three are optimisticthattheirfinancialsituationwillimproveinthenextyear.Thesesameconsumersaretwotimesmorelikelytobeworriedabouttheirsavingsanddelayinglargepu

20、rchases.Theyrealso1.5timesmorelikelytobeconcernedaboutmonthlypayments(whichmaysignalfuturecreditdefaults).2 So,although individual companies may have their unique reasonsforoptimism,therearescenarioswhereconsumersexhaust their savings and face a softening labor market,leaving little for continued ex

21、penditure.3 Consumer products companiesshouldnotignoresuchdownsidepossibilities.(For an economists perspective,see The economic outlook for the consumer products industry).A good or bad year for the industry?Globally,fourin10consumers surveyed feeltheirfinancialsituationworsenedoverthepastyear.72023

22、 consumer products industry outlook7The economic outlook for the consumer products industryThe pandemic shocked the global economy,but so has its aftermath.The consumer products industry enters 2023 with an economy experiencing ruinous inflation,rapid tightening monetary policy,and recessionary risk

23、.Consumer behavior and supply chains are still disrupted,and crises from war to weather add to the turmoil.All things being equal,it would take time for the global economy to return to normalcy.But uncertainty and fear undermine political support for a return to the basics of globalization.The comin

24、g decade,therefore,will be different than before.Inflation arrived largely as a consequence of supply chain disruption,amplified by the whiplash of consumers rapidly switching from services to goods in the pandemic.Now,with the pandemic perceived as being over,consumers are shifting back to services

25、 and cutting spending on goods.This development should help alleviate inflationary pressure but creates some headwinds for consumer product sales.Oil and other commodity prices have declined as the global economy has weakened,providing additional hope for reduced inflation and cheaper transportation

26、 and inputs for the industry.Still,once it goes up,inflation is hard to bring down.The International Monetary Fund(IMF)forecasts worldwide average inflation to remain stubbornly high at 6.5%in 2023.Central banks in Europe and North America are rapidly tightening monetary policy to stifle inflation.T

27、he US Federal Reserve is likely to continue tightening by raising interest rates until it is objectively evident inflation is receding.These actions may increase the likelihood of recession.One casualty of war is the global market for grain and fertilizer,much of which is produced in Ukraine and Rus

28、sia.Disruption of production and distribution led to a big increase in food prices,which is likely to persist,especially given the fertilizer shortage.Weather and climate are also playing their roles.For example,drought in the United States affects transportation on the Mississippi and cattle produc

29、tion in ways that may be felt for a few years.Combined,this means greater price sensitivity on the part of consumers,at least in advanced economies.Speaking of consumers,although labor markets are tight in Europe and North America,wages have not kept pace with inflation,thereby leading to a decline

30、in real incomes.In the United States,consumers have offset this problem by dipping into their savings.In Canada and Europe,however,real spending has declined.Japans economy has lately seen improvement as COVID-related restrictions were lifted,and pent-up consumer demand led to strong retail spending

31、 growth.On the other hand,the sharp rise in energy and food prices and a falling yen have weakened household incomes.In China,retail spending was growing,but slowly.The state of global consumer health factors into the IMFs modest forecast for real GDP growth of only 2.7%in 2023.Although global suppl

32、y chain stress has eased since the worst of the pandemic,supply chains are not yet back to normal.As consumer products companies struggle to obtain the inputs and commodities they require,they also face a changing geopolitical and business environment.This involves governmental restrictions on techn

33、ology transfer,fraught relations between the worlds greatest powers,and increased regionalization of supply chains.It also involves new efforts by global companies to reinforce supply chain resilience and redundancy,partly by diversifying supply chain processes and no longer depending on just one co

34、untry or supplier.As a result,we may begin to see a consumer products industry emerge that is,in many ways,more diverse than before.Dr.Ira KalishChief Global Economist,Deloitte82023 consumer products industry outlookChecking in on challenges With reasons to be optimistic or not,the industry is nonet

35、heless expected to face several challenges,including some holdovers fromtheprioryearnamely,labor,supplychain,andinflation.4 Labor Of the three big challenges executives called out for 2022,labor made the most positive progressthough the nature ofthechallengemaybechanging.Thisyear42%ofcompaniessurvey

36、edsaytheyhaveaproblemwithhigher-than-normallevelsofvoluntaryattrition,whichisdown13percentagepointsfrom 2022.More than half of executives either think labor shortageswillbeoverinsixmonthsorarealreadynolongeraproblemforthem.Only8%thinkworkforceissueswillbeextremely challenging for their company in th

37、e year ahead.Our past research suggests some companies may have taken stepstoimprovetheirlaborprofile,includingbyembracingdiversity,equity,andinclusion(DEI)atopstrategyweveseenseveral food industry companies use to improve overall hiring and retention.5Ourfinancialanalysisreflectstopperformingcompan

38、ies also invested in more automation to improve productivity(e.g.,using machine vision to improve quality control andreducematerialwasteonproductionlines).Still,thelaborchallenge is likely being aided by expectations of a deteriorating economyandsubsequenteffectsonthelabormarket.Theconversationshift

39、edfromtheGreatResignationtotalkoflayoffsin other sectors spilling into consumer products.We see this in ourdata:69%surveyedarenotgoingtoincreasetheirrateofhiringormayevendecreaseit.Oneinfourplanlayoffs.Supply chainSupply chain operations may have seen improvements from the height of the pandemic dis

40、ruption,but it still rates as a topconcernamongindustryexecutives:62%ofrespondentsexpectsupplychainissueswillbequiteorextremelychallenging in 2023.Theindustryisstilladaptingtolargeshocksandnewwaysofthinking.For instance,almost half of companies think just-in-timeasasupplychainstrategywillneedtoberep

41、laced(48%).Similarnumbersareworriedaboutthereliabilityofsupplyfromoncedependablemarkets(57%)andworrythatalackoftradecollaborationamongcountrieswillfurtheraffecttheirabilitytodobusinesswiththosesuppliers(47%).Atthesametime,thelaborcostdifferentialsthatinitiallyattractedthemtothesemarketshavesignifica

42、ntlyeroded,makingtheargumentforcontinued use more tenuous.6Ashalfofourrespondents(52%)saytheyareshorteningtheirsupplychainstode-risk,weexpect2023willbringmorenearshoring.Freight companies see this change coming too.Half of transportation companies are actively preparing for nearshoringbytheirmanufac

43、turingclients,whileanother thirdareexploringwhatactiontheyshouldtaketoaccommodate a shift.7 Additionally,the need for supply chain data to meet sustainability reporting or other regulatory or safety objectives continues to expand.Forinstance,sevenin10executivessurveyedagreethatsustainabilityneedsthe

44、samerigorasfinancialreporting.Butonly3%ofconsumercompaniessaytheycanproducesustainabilitydatathatisasaccurateandverifiableastheirfinancialdata,mainlyduetotheneedtoaccountforthird-partysuppliers(i.e.,Scope3emissions).8 Or take the case of the UnitedStates,whereFoodSafetyModernizationAct(FSMA)Rule 204

45、 may constitute the most substantial food traceability requirements in decades.9 Then theres the European Union,whichplanstorequirea“DigitalProductPassportfortextiles”thatwillincludedataoncircularityandotherenvironmentalaspects.10Theseandsimilarneedswilllikelychallengeconsumerproducts companies to g

46、et more and better data from their supply chains.Of the three big challenges executives called out for 2022,labor made the most positive progressthough the nature of the challenge may be changing.92023 consumer products industry outlookInflationPrices are already up.2022 set the record for higher co

47、nsumer packagedgoods(CPG)prices(aidedbythetopperformersinourfinancialanalysis,whichallincreasedtheirpricesmultipletimesin2022).11Centralbanksaredoingtheirbesttofightinflationandpreventhigherprices.Nonetheless,eightin10companiesin our survey plan to raise their prices further in 2023.Those higherpric

48、esarehelpingtoboostrevenueexpectations,with83%expectinghigherrevenueintheyearahead.Still,56%ofcompaniessurveyedsaysalesgrowthwillbequiteorextremelychallenging.Growingunitsaleswillbeespeciallydifficultaselasticitybecomesamoresignificantheadwind.Theindustrysplitsdownthemiddleonwhetherconsumerproductsc

49、ompaniescanraisepriceswithoutmaterially affectingdemand.Only48%thinktheycangetawaywith raisingpricesinthissense.Theresteitherdonot(39%)ordontknowiftheycan(13%).Withsales,companiescalloutthedifficultiesofkeepingup withthechangingconsumer.Two-thirdsofexecutivesagreethatconsumers purchasing preferences

50、 have changed considerably overthepast12months.Thetopproblematicchangesfromanexecutivepointofviewwereadecreasedwillingnesstopayhigherprices(63%)andconsumerstradingdowntolower-costofferingsandoptions(57%).Thatincludes41%whorecognizeanewconsumeropennesstobuyingstorebrands(akaprivateorownlabels).Butexe

51、cutivesseethechangingconsumerasa more generalized change.Changing preferences,be they dietaryorfashion,waslistedbymorethanfourin10asveryproblematic for their company.Improvementinoperatingmarginswilllikelybeharderthanrevenueintheseinflationarytimes.Halfofthecompaniessurveyed expect their margins to

52、be the same or to even shrink this year.Margins are the number one challenge in our survey(68%quite/extremelychallenging).Inadditiontoconsumerpricesensitivity,companiessufferfromcostinflationintheirsupplychain:82%expectinputcosts,betheygrain,plastic,fabric,orpackaging,togoupfurtherin2023.Andpotentia

53、llylowerunitvolumesproducedonthesamefixedcostbasecouldwreakhavoc on production economics.Theindustrysplitsdownthemiddleonwhetherconsumer products companies can raise prices withoutmateriallyaffectingdemand.102023 consumer products industry outlookThe view from JapanJapans economic context is mixed.R

54、ecent lifting of COVID-related restrictions unleashed pent-up consumer demand and led to strong retail spending growth.On the other hand,the sharp rise in energy and food prices,combined with a falling yen,have weakened household incomes.Meanwhile,the government has offered monetary and fiscal stimu

55、lus to offset the negative headwinds coming from the global economy.Japanese executives see increased input costs,high energy prices,and a slowing global economy lasting into 2023 and beyond.However,these executives remain confident about the prospects for their industrys and their organizations per

56、formance,with the majority expecting revenue,market share,and profits to increase.This optimistic view likely includes expectations of improved inbound demand critically important to several Japanese consumer product companies.Japanese executives also rate their jobs as less stressful than their Wes

57、tern counterparts do.Japanese companies expect to protect their margins by increasing productivity,with supply chain and operational excellence being the top investment areas.To pursue that strategy,Japanese businesses are aiming to improve transparency,especially around product information for cons

58、umers and exchanging more data with partners.Growing market share may be important,but investing in M&A to meet that objective is less of a priority in Japan.In terms of challenges,most Japanese executives agree that consumers declining willingness to pay higher prices and their changing channel pre

59、ferences will be problematic for their company.One in two see the increase in prices as likely to negatively impact consumer demand.But when it comes to labor shortages,they are more optimistic than European and US executives who are three times as likely to say the workforce crisis will last throug

60、h 2023.To better serve changing consumers,Japanese companies are putting emphasis on their digital strategy.Executives agree that their organizations will need faster product innovation,better analytics,and more omnichannel sales capability to meet changing consumer preferences.The view from ChinaCh

61、inas economy is growing slowly.This reflects COVID-related factors,which hinder consumer interaction;a struggling property market;electricity shortages due to climate change policies;and headwinds from the global economy.Retail spending was growing,but slowly,with November numbers declining.The outl

62、ook is for continued modest growth with increased volatility.Nevertheless,Chinese executives have a high level of confidence about the prospects for their industrys performance and are also less stressed than their Western counterparts.While they are not so worried about the global economy or geopol

63、itical instability,maybe due to being less exposed to it than the West,they recognize that the global economic slowdown,currency devaluation,and higher energy prices are crises that will impact their industry for the next year and beyond.In response,Chinese businesses expect to improve their operati

64、ng margins by increasing prices and investing in profitable growth and operational excellence.However,one in four Chinese executives see price increases as a risk that could lead to a deterioration in consumer demand.In terms of their organizations performance expectations,Chinese executives are rat

65、her bullish.A large majority expect revenue and profits to increase in 2023,and one in two expect their companys market share to rise.Chinese executives are clear on where meeting their business objectives will be challenging,including in their supply chain operations,sales growth,sustainability,and

66、 digital transformation.Even more so than in the West,Chinese organizations are focusing their strategic efforts on adapting to the changing consumer.To do so,Chinese businesses say they need better analytics capabilities,faster product innovation,and more data from consumers.As a result,they have a

67、 clear focus on accelerating the move to digital platforms and technologies,including personalizing the customer experience and improving data security.Not all markets look the same.To create an ever-more globalized outlook fortheconsumerproductsindustry,weconductedadditionalinterviews andsurveyswit

68、hexecutivesworkinginChinaandJapanfortheirtakeon those unique markets.102023 consumer products industry outlook11PursuingprofitablegrowthGrowingsalesandmarginswhilechasingthechangingconsumerinaninflationaryandchallengingeconomicenvironmentwontbeaneasytask.Welooktocompaniesontrackforprofitablegrowthin

69、oursurvey(N=71)aswellasthosefromourfinancialanalysistodiscover possible drivers of their impressive success.The best are like the restBeforewelookatwhatsetstheseprofitablegrowers(PG)apart,itisjustasimportanttounderstandhowtheyarethesameasallother(AO)companiesinthesurvey.Forinstance,profitablegrowers

70、areessentiallyjustaslikelytocomefromanyindustrysubsectorsuch as food and beverage,household goods,personal care,orapparel.Theyarealsowellrepresentedacrosscompanysizes,headquarterlocations,andpublicorprivateownershipcategories.Itdoesntappearthattheseprofitablegrowercompaniesareespecially lucky in man

71、y respects either.They share similar expectationsoninputcostincreases(PG83%;AO81%),their abilitytoraisepriceswithoutmateriallyaffectingdemand(PG45%;AO51%),andcompetitivefactorssuchastheirsusceptibilitytoprivate-labelofferings(PG76%;AO65%).Whenassessingchallenges,profitablegrowersratesupplychain,digi

72、taltransformation,productinnovation,sustainability/ESG,andevensalesgrowthasalittlemorechallengingthanallothercompanies.Profitablegrowersseeonlytwoareasaslesschallenging:margins(PG59%;AO76%,whichfitsthedefinition)andlabor(PG24%;AO49%).Regardinglabor,profitablegrowersaremorelikelytokeephiringonpaceand

73、lesslikelytoplanlayoffs.Giveninflation,growingmarginsmaybemorechallengingthangrowingrevenue,soitwouldbefairtoassumethatprofitablegrowerswillplacemoreemphasisonkeepingcostsdown.However,thatisnotwhatweseeinthedata.Allothercompanies arejustaslikelyasprofitablegrowerstosaytheircompanieswillfocus on decr

74、easing costs in 2023 more than in prior years (77%each).Bothkindsofcompaniesareessentiallytiedinthelikelihoodtoprioritizeimprovingproductivityandefficiency(PG90%;AO88%),andalmostallcompaniesaremakinginvestments in margin improvement and cost transformation (94%each).It appears,though very important

75、as table stakes for any company,afocusoncostwillnotbeaprimarydifferentiatingfactorforprofitablegrowth.Inotherwords,companiesareunlikelytosqueezetheirwaytosuccess.Instead,profitablegrowerswilllikelybetheonesthatfindawaytomanagethetensionofinvestinginmoreengagementandpreservingunitvolumeeconomicswhile

76、alsounlockingnewefficienciesandloweringcosts.DifferenceinactionAclearerpictureemergesfromwhereprofitablegrowthcompaniesinvesttheirattentionandfinancialresources.Trackingtheirprioritiesandinvestments,weseemeaningfuldifferencesin fiveareas.Profitablegrowthcompaniesare:1.Embracing the changing consumer

77、2.Going for market share3.Creatively transforming4.Driving data through supply chains5.Prioritizing ESGProfitablegrowthwillbeour measure of success for consumer products in 2023.122023 consumer products industry outlook1.Embracing the changing consumerWhatconsumerswanthaschangeddramaticallyandfreque

78、ntlyduringthepastseveralyears,andprofitablegrowersexpectthattrendtocontinue.Eightin10executivesinoursurveyconsiderthechangingconsumerasoneoftheirgreatestchallenges,and93%saykeepingupwithchangingconsumerdemandsisapriority(+22percentagepointshigherthanallothercompanies).Butwhenitcomesdowntoit,profitab

79、legrowthcompaniesarefindingwaystogetclosertoconsumers,mainlythroughmoresignificantdigitalinvestmentsthathelpthemengageandpersonalize.For example,some companies let consumers try on clothes virtually or provide AI-enabledproductrecommendations.Othersareworkingbehindthescenestoimprovesalesandcustomerl

80、ifetimevalueperformancewithpredictiveanalyticsmodelsworkinginclosetorealtime.Investmentsindirect-to-consumer(DTC)channelsandinprotectingtheconsumerdatathatmakesthesesystemsfunctionalsoratehighlyintheplansofprofitablegrowthcompanies.ButbewarnedthatDTCmodelsatlargeincumbentbrandshavestruggledforprofit

81、abilityandarenotforthefaintof heart.12Abusiness-to-businesswholesalemodeldiffersfromdirectretailing,anditcanbehardtodoboth.Newregulatoryandtechnologicalchangestoconsumertracking,forexample,aroundcookies and opt-in requirements,are making it harder still by increasing customer acquisition and marketi

82、ng costs.BasedonDeloittesanalysisofexecutiveinterviewsforthe2023 consumer products industry outlook.N=150:ComparingresponsesofAgreeandStronglyAgree;*N=53:ComparingresponsesofSignificantandModerateinvestment.Getting closer to the changing consumer Profitable growersAll othersPercentage point(pp)diffe

83、renceInvesting in creating or improving a direct-to-consumer sales channel*93%42%+51ppAgree improving consumer data privacy and cybersecurity is critical to digital strategy89%61%+28 ppInvestingintechnologytoimproveabilitytoengagewith consumers and employees*86%50%+36 ppInvesting in ability to perso

84、nalize the consumer experience*86%54%+32 ppAgree the ability to personalize the consumer experience willbekeytodifferentiatingofferings80%65%+15pp2023 consumer products industry outlookBasedonDeloittesanalysisofexecutiveinterviewsforthe2023 consumer products industry outlook.*N=53:Comparingresponses

85、ofOneofourverytopprioritiesandAclearpriority.N=150:ComparingresponsesofIncreasedSomewhatandIncreasedSignificantly.N=150:ComparingresponsesofAgree andStronglyAgree.N=150:ComparingresponsesofSignificantandModerateinvestment.Improving product innovationProfitable growersAll othersPercentage point(pp)di

86、fferencePrioritizingtheintroductionofnewproducts/services*86%46%+40 ppInvesting in product innovation77%42%+35ppUsing sophisticated analytics to identify opportunities for newbrandsandproducts77%56%+21ppInvestinginhealthandwellnesstrends72%53%+19ppAnotherwayprofitablegrowersembracethechangingconsume

87、risbyprioritizingnewproductsand services created to meet evolving needs.They invest more in product innovation and use data fromtheirdigitalengagementsystemstoquicklyidentifynewopportunities.Successfulcompaniesinourfinancialanalysisalsopursuedproductpremiumization.Wesawthisinnovationstrategygainpopu

88、larity over the past year,as premiumization helps to justify price increases to consumers by providing additional value.1313Profitable growth companies are investing their attention and financial resources differently in five major ways:Prioritizing ESG97%agree becoming more environmentally sustaina

89、ble is a priority(compared to 58%for all othercompanies)Creatively transforming68%are pursuing vertical integration as a strategy(compared to 32%forallothercompanies)Driving data through supply chains90%are investing in increasing the level of transparency provided to consumers and other stakeholder

90、s(compared to 46%forallothercompanies)Going for market share85%say the current environment providesanopportunitytogrow share(compared to 52%for all othercompanies)Embracing the changing consumer93%say keeping up withchangingconsumerdemands is a priority(compared to 71%for all othercompanies)12345142

91、023 consumer products industry outlook2.Going for market shareProfitablegrowthcompaniesthinkthechallengingbusinessenvironmentexpectedforthisyearprovidesanexcellentopportunitytogrowshare(85%,+33percentagepointshigherthanallothercompanies).Theyaremorelikelytosaygrowingshareisoneoftheirtoppriorities.Th

92、etopcompaniesinourfinancialanalysisareallgrowingsharerelativetotheirpeersonathree-yearbasis.Suchsharegrowthisimportantas,amongotherbenefits,ithelpsimproveunitvolumesandopenssubsequentopportunitiesforeconomiesofscale.Howdotheyplantogoaboutit?Somemayraisepricesyetkeepthemlowerthancompetitorsanduseprom

93、otions.Thepotentialtoundercutonpriceisthereasthosecompaniesthatdontanticipateprofitablegrowthmayhavetheirhandforcedtheyarefourtimesmorelikelytosaytheirinputpricesareincreasingsignificantly.Sevenin10profitablegrowersarelookingtogrowtheirsharebyinvestinginemergingmarkets.And as pointed out earlier,the

94、y are investing in more innovative products to attract changing consumers.Butthemostdramaticdifferencesareinmarketing(includingdigitalmarketing)andexpandingby acquisition.BasedonDeloittesanalysisofexecutiveinterviewsforthe2023 consumer products industry outlook.N=150:ComparingresponsesofIncreasedSom

95、ewhatandIncreasedSignificantly.*N=53:ComparingresponsesofOneofourverytopprioritiesandAclearpriority.Going for market shareProfitable growersAll othersPercentage point(pp)differencePlan to increase market share in 202385%49%+36 ppInvesting more in marketing and advertising79%30%+49ppPrioritize expand

96、ing by acquisition*48%21%+27pp3.Creatively transformingProfitablegrowersarechangingtheirbusinessesasconsumerneedsevolve.Forsome(two-thirds),this involves transformation through divestitures and portfolio optimization.Creative examples in the marketplaceincludejointventuresandinnovativepartnershipswi

97、thprivateequitytoturnoverbusinesses thatwouldoperatebetterexternally.Somebrandsmightevenbeabletoformprivateequityfundstofacilitate these deals.Profitablegrowersaredoingsomethingelseunique:verticalintegration.Integrationmayprovideflexibilityintimesofsignificantturbulence.Itisnotwithoutpotentialdownsi

98、des,butitcanbeusedasalevertogain greater control,ensure supply,and protect margins from input cost increases.Ratings agencies and financialfirmssuggestverticalintegrationisbehindthesuccessofmeatcompaniesinrecentyears,creditingintegrationwithincreasingtheirefficiency,providinganaturalhedgetoinputpric

99、eswings,andimprovingtraceability.14Inanotherexample,researchinthefashionindustryreflectsbackwardintegrationenablescompaniestogainmoredataandimprovetheirabilitytomakeproduct-specificclaims,suchasaroundsustainability.15BasedonDeloittesanalysisofexecutiveinterviewsforthe2023 consumer products industry

100、outlook.N=150:ComparingresponsesofAgreeandStronglyAgreeorresponsesofSignificantInvestmentandModerateInvestment.Creatively transformingProfitable growersAll othersPercentage point(pp)differencePursuing vertical integration as a strategy (i.e.,owningmorepartsofthevaluechain)68%32%+36 ppInvesting in di

101、vestitures and portfolio optimization66%44%+22 pp2023 consumer products industry outlook15BasedonDeloittesanalysisofexecutiveinterviewsforthe2023 consumer products industry outlook.N=53:ComparingresponsesofSignificant and Moderate investment.*ComparesonlySignificantinvestment.Supply chain dataProfit

102、able growersAll othersPercentage point (pp)differenceInvesting in increasing the level of transparency provided to consumers and other stakeholders90%46%+44 ppInvesting in improving capabilities to safely share data withpartners76%50%+26 ppMakingasignificantinvestmentincollectingmoredetailed data fr

103、om supply chains*48%21%+27pp4.Driving data through supply chainsLikecostcutting,thesupplychainisapriorityforalmosteverycompany.Morethanninein10companiesinoursurveyareinvestinginsupplychainimprovementandoperationalexcellence,soitdoesntdifferentiate.Additionally,those companies that say they are movin

104、g beyond just-in-time supply chain strategies are aboutaslikelytobeprofitablegrowersasanyotherconsumerproductscompany.However,supplychaindataisanareawhereprofitablegrowersstandout.Theyaremuchmorelikelytoinvestindatacapabilitiesandwanttosharemoredatawithconsumersandpartners.Thisdatacanhelppowersmartl

105、abelstohelpconsumersmakebetterdecisionsandcanhelpsupplychainpartnerscoordinateandoptimizelogistics.Companieswiththesecapabilitiesarelikelybetterpositionedtomeettrackingandtraceability requirements.And it enables other capabilities,such as assessing supply chain carbon footprints(79%,+38percentagepoi

106、ntshigherthanallothercompanies)andmonitoringandcomplyingwithethicalworkingpractices(89%,+25percentagepointshigherthanallothercompanies).Examplesfromhigherperformersinourfinancialanalysisincludenewproductlabelingsystemsincorporatingcarbonemissions,oceanacidification,andbiodiversityallenabledbysupplyc

107、haindata.Morethanninein10companies in our survey are investing in supply chain improvement and operational excellence.162023 consumer products industry outlook5.Prioritizing ESG Profitablegrowersaremorecommittedtoenvironmental,social,andgovernanceobjectives.Examplesfromhighperformersinourfinancialan

108、alysisincludeinvestmentsinreusablepackagingandbottles,deforestationpreventioninitiatives,sustainablepalmoilsourcingefforts,andclimate-smart farming practices.AdifferentiatingfactoristhatprofitablegrowersinvestinimprovingtheirESGreporting.Thosethatdo this tend to outperform in making sustainability p

109、rogress,based on past research16.And their investmentsinDEImaybehelpingprofitablegrowers,astheydontneedtoemphasizehiringandretainingtoptalentintheirprioritiesatthesamerateasallothercompanies(45%;-30percentagepointslowerthanallothercompanies).Notethattheeconomyscontinueddeteriorationmaymakeitmorediff

110、iculttokeeptheseprioritiesatthetopofthelist.Thoughmanyconsumersvaluesustainability,wevealreadyseensignsofapullbackinwillingnesstopayapremiumforsustainability.17BasedonDeloittesanalysisofexecutiveinterviewsforthe2023 consumer products industry outlook.N=150:ComparingresponsesofSignificant and Moderat

111、e investment or comparing responses of Agree and Strongly Agree.*N=53:ComparingresponsesofAclearpriorityandOneofourverytopprioritiesorcomparingresponsesofSignificantandModerateinvestment.Prioritizing ESGProfitable growersAll othersPercentage point(pp)differenceAgree becoming more environmentally sus

112、tainable is a priority*97%58%+39ppInvesting in increasing environmental,social,and governance(ESG)reporting*83%50%+33 ppIncreasing the companys positive impact on society is a priority*76%50%+26 ppInvestingindiversity,equity,andinclusion(DEI)75%47%+28 ppPlan to participate in the circular economy68%

113、44%+24 pp2023 consumer products industry outlook17BringingprofitablegrowthtoyourcompanyItmaynotbedifferentiating,butallconsumerproductscompaniesshouldconsideraddressingcostandefficiencythisyear.Therearemany levers,including SKU rationalization,value engineering to stripawaynon-valuedfeatures,changes

114、inprice-packarchitecture,renegotiating supplier prices and payment terms,cutting labor costs and increasing productivity,reengineering service delivery,and adopting intelligent automation such as AI and machine vision toreducematerialloss.Whichleversworkbestandwhichhave alreadybeenpulledwillvaryfrom

115、companytocompany.But many of the most successful companies are doing more than addressing costs.They are making the investments necessary toadapttothesqueezeandwhipsawofchange.Thoseleadersinterested in taking this path should consider asking themselves thefollowingquestions:Prioritizing ESG Havewema

116、depubliccommitmentsonsustainabilitygoals,andarewelivinguptothem?Areweconfidentourconsumerswillpayforsustainabilitydifferentiationordoesitsimplymeettheirbaselineexpectations?Canwedecreasethecostofsustainability?Dowehavethenecessarysystemsandprocessestoreportonprogress?Are our systems for sustainabili

117、ty tracking as good as thoseforfinancialreporting?Canwemorefullyembraceequityforouremployeesandotherstakeholders?Canweassesshowthoseeffortsprovidereturns,such as better talent retention rates?Embracing the changing consumer Thesameconsumerwillmakeseemlyinconsistentdecisionsin differentcontexts.Doweg

118、otomarketinawaythatisconsumer-centric or context-centric?Areweinvestingsufficientlyintechnologythatwillallowustoengage,personalize,predict,and adapt to changing consumer contexts?Dowehavechannelsthatcanreachthemdirectly?Whatmorecanwedotoprotecttheconsumerdataneededtorun these engagement systems and

119、preserve consumer trust?Areweinnovatingnewproductsandservicesasconsumersneedsrapidlychange?Dowehavetheanalyticsandmarket Going for market share Whiletakingstepstoensureprofitability,willourcoststructuresupportrelativelysmallerpricehikessothatwecantakesharefromweakercompetitors?Canweusepromotions,inc

120、reasedadvertising,or productinnovationtowinovernewconsumers?Isthereanopportunitytogrowsharethroughacquisition?Havedecreased valuations made such purchases more feasible in our Creatively transforming Aretherepartsofourportfolionolongerviewedassupportingfuturegrowth?Insteadofsellingthemtocompetitors,

121、couldtheybecome stand-alone entities attractive enough to secure private equity funding?Vertical integration can help companies gain more control over costandavailability.Aretherepartsofoursupplychainwheremarginspaidseemexcessive?Orotherswherewehavestruggledwithtimeliness,availability,andpredictabil

122、ity?Couldverticalintegrationallowustodevelopuniqueproductclaims or features,such as sustainable or equitable sourcing,product traceability,or proprietary formulations?Driving data through supply chains Howcanbettersupplychaintransparencytranslateintohighersales and enhanced consumer trust?What data

123、do our consumers wanttohavemost?Howcanwebestprovideittothem?Whatdigitalinvestmentsandecosystempartnershipsdoweneedto prioritize to make our supply chains more transparent and accountable?Wouldmoredatafromoursupplychainenableustomakenew,valuableproductclaims(e.g.,sustainability)?Howcanbettervisibilit

124、yofmysupplychainimproveefficiencies?182023 consumer products industry outlookTheauthorsaregratefulfortheknowledgeandcontributionsofalargegroupofsubject-matterspecialistsintheconsumerproductsindustryspanningtheUnitedStates,Europe,China,andJapanaswellasvariousspecialists indataanalysis,production,andm

125、arketing.Weextendourthankstothefollowingpeople:SanjayAgarwal,LizzieAngwin,DavideBertoia,JacobBruun-Jensen,HeatherBygrave,ConorCahill,ErickCalvillo,NickDavies,EricDeJong,DanielEdsall,JensEwert,KaoruFukazawa,BrookeFurman,SandeepGill,MeghanGragtmans,CharlieGribben,MakotoIshiwata,ToddJansma,BradJohnson,

126、KyleA.Johnson,AkihiroKataoke,JimKilpatrick,PhilLane,ErnestoLanzillo,MikeManby,MattMarsh,ManognaMarthi,JunMatsuo,RicardoMauriciobalkins,Paul A.Maynard,Umberto Mazzuco,Bill McFarland,Elmaleh Michel,Kevin Moss,Satish Nelanuthula,Michael Nie Deng,AnkitPatel,JeffPlowman,EugenioPuddu,BarbRenner,StephenRog

127、ers,JonathanRothman,DavidRudini,NielsSahl,EvanSheehan,MichaelSlattery,MargaretSparks,KarineSzegedi,EliTidhar,JesseTingJiang,CraigTurnbull,SanjayVadrevu,JohnvanWyk,KoenVandaele,NeilWhite,DavidWingHungLung,StephanieWolfe,SunnyYingJiang,SpencerYoung,ThorstenZierlein.AcknowledgmentsAuthorsLeon PietersGl

128、obal Consumer Industry Leader&Consumer Products Sector LeaderDeloitte Consulting B.V.+31882882517LeonPietersdeloitte.nlNick HandrinosVice Chairman and US Retail&Consumer Products LeaderDeloitte LLP+Cline FenechUK Consumer Products Insight LeadDeloitte LLP+44(0)2073032064cfenechdeloitte.co.ukJustin C

129、ookUS Consumer Products Research LeaderDeloitte Services LP+Jagadish UpadhyayaResearch&Insights Manager,Consumer ProductsDeloitte Support Services Pvt.Ltd.+2023 consumer products industry outlook19Endnotes1.Deloitte 2023 Consumer Products Outlook Survey.2.Deloitte Global State of the Consumer Tracke

130、r,data as of October 2022.3.HarrietTorry,“Assavingsslowlyshrink,consumerspendingisonborrowedtime,”WallStreetJournal,November20,2022.4.Deloitte,2022 consumer products industry outlook,January2022.5.BarbRenner,KimberlyBetts,andJustinCook,“Futureofwork:Diversity,equity,andinclusioninthefoodindustry,”De

131、loitteInsights,August24,2021.6.DeloitteanalysisofdatafromTheEconomistIntelligenceUnit,Seriesname:Manufacturinglaborcostperhour(US$);Geography:Allcountries;Timeperiod:2010to2022.7.LarryHitchcocketal.,“Thefutureoffreight:Transformingthemovementofgoods,”DeloitteInsights,November1,2022.8.JamesCasconeeta

132、l.,“Driving accountable sustainability in the consumer industry,”DeloitteInsights,June9,2022.9.USFoodandDrugAdministration,“FSMAFinalRule:RequirementsforAdditionalTraceabilityRecordsforCertainFoods,”November17,2022.10.EuropeanCommission,“EU strategy for sustainable and circular textiles,”authoredbyt

133、heDirectorate-GeneralforEnvironment,March30,2022.11.CarmanAllison,“EnduringsignsofaU.S.consumerrecession:CPGinflationhitsanall-timehighof12%,”NielsenIQ,September20,2022.12.BenUnglesbee,“AnalyststhrowcoldwateronthegreatDTCpivot,”Retail Dive,September27,2021.13.Deloitte,2022CAGNYconferencehighlights,A

134、pril1,2022.14.CreditSuisse,“Tyson:Chickencontinuestoimprove,butbottominbeefremainsunclear,”EquityResearch,November15,2022;“FitchaffirmsSmithfieldFoods,Inc.sIDRatBBB;outlookstable,”FitchRatings,August3,2021.15.AngeloArcuriandLorenzoGiolli,“Therelationshipbetweenupstreamverticalintegrationandenvironme

135、ntalsustainabilityintheluxuryfashionindustry,”SN Business&Economics 2,no.73(2022).16.Casconeetal.,“Driving accountable sustainability in the consumer industry.”17.LeonPietersetal.,“Thecostofbuyinggreen:PartII,”DeloitteInsights,November28,2022.This publication contains general information and predict

136、ions only and Deloitte isnot,bymeansofthispublication,renderingaccounting,business,financial,investment,legal,tax,or other professional advice or services.This publication is not a substitute for such professional advice or services,nor should it be used as abasisforanydecisionoractionthatmayaffecty

137、ourbusiness.Beforemakinganydecisionortakinganyactionthatmayaffectyourbusiness,youshouldconsultaqualifiedprofessionaladviser.Deloitteshallnotberesponsibleforanylosssustainedbyanypersonwhoreliesonthispublication.About DeloitteDeloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited,a UK priv

138、ate companylimitedbyguarantee(“DTTL”),itsnetworkofmemberfirms,andtheirrelatedentities.DTTLandeachofitsmemberfirmsarelegallyseparateandindependententities.DTTL(alsoreferredtoas“DeloitteGlobal”)doesnotprovideservices to clients.In the United States,Deloitte refers to one or more of the US memberfirmsofDTTL,theirrelatedentitiesthatoperateusingthe“Deloitte”nameintheUnitedStates,andtheirrespectiveaffiliates.Certainservicesmaynotbeavailable to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting.P 2023 Deloitte Development LLC.All rights reserved.