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1、Coffee Market Report October 2022 1 Despite prices dropping 21.09 US cents/lb,I-CIP remains 18.1%above the 2021 calendar year average.The ICO Composite Indicator Price(I-CIP)lost 10.6%from September to October 2022,averaging 178.54 US cents/lb for the latter,whilst posting a median value of 177.22 U

2、S cents/lb.Average prices for all groups indicators decreased in October 2022.The Colombian Milds-Other Milds and the Brazilian Naturals-Robusta differential both took the hardest hit from September to October 2022,retracting 17.8%and 17.5%.The differential for the aforementioned period shrank from

3、26.60 to 21.87 US cents/lb and 108.23 to 89.25 US cents/lb.The arbitrage between the New York and London Futures markets shrank by 15.4%,falling to 99.56 US Cents/lb in October 2022 from 117.74 US cents/lb in September 2022 as the price decline was more marked for Arabica than Robusta.Intra-day vola

4、tility of the I-CIP decreased 1.2 percentage points between September and October 2022,reaching a low of 7.1%.The New York certified stocks decreased 9.3%from the previous month,closing in at 0.41 million bags,whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.52 million bags,representing a decreas

5、e of 4.3%.Global exports of green beans were down 1.1%in coffee year 2021/22,totalling 116.07 million bags from 117.32 million bags in coffee year 2020/21.Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 7.1%in coffee year 2021/22,falling to 12.14 million bags from 2022 from 13.07 million bags in the pre

6、vious coffee year.Shipments of the Other Milds increased by 1.3%in coffee year 2021/22,rising to 23.9 million bags from 23.59 million bags in the previous coffee year.Exports of the Robustas totalled 42.2 million bags in coffee year 2021/22,up 2.6%as compared with 41.12 million bags in coffee year 2

7、020/21.Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 6.1%in coffee year 2021/22 to 12.1 million bags from 11.4 million bags in coffee year 2020/21.In October 2021 to September 2022,South Americas exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 7.1%to 55.31 million bags.Exports of all forms of coffee from

8、 Asia&Oceania increased by 12.8%to 43.86 million bags in coffee year 2021/22.Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 5.1%to 13.73 million bags in coffee year 2021/22 from 14.48 million bags in the previous coffee year.In October 2021 to September 2022,exports of all forms of coffee f

9、rom Mexico&Central America were down 3.3%to 16.09 million bags as compared with 16.63 million in coffee year 2020/21.Coffee Market Report October 2022 2 Green Coffee Price The ICO Composite Indicator Price(I-CIP)lost 10.6%from September to October 2022,averaging 178.54 US cents/lb for the latter,whi

10、lst posting a median value of 177.22 US cents/lb.In October 2022,the I-CIP fluctuated in between 159.30 and 194.92 US cents/lb.Average prices for all groups indicators decreased in October 2022.The Colombian Milds and Other Milds,decreased by 10.9%and 10.2%,respectively,month-on-month in October.The

11、 former averaged 261.95 US cents/lb in October 2022,whilst the latter averaged 240.08 US cents/lb.The Brazilian Naturals declined the most within all four groups,falling 12.4%to 192.27 US cents/lb.The Robustas averaged 103.01 US cents/lb for the month of October,a 7.5%decline from the previous month

12、.The downturns are in part due to the average 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE New York futures market,which lost 12.1%in October 2022 versus September 2022.The average of the 2nd and 3rd positions of the ICE Futures Europe for the Robustas also shrank by 8.3%.5075100125150175200225250275300325Nov-2

13、0Feb-21May-21Aug-21Nov-21Feb-22May-22Aug-22US cents/lbFigure 2:ICO Group Indicator Daily PricesColombian MildsOther MildsBrazilian NaturalsRobustasCoffee Market Report October 2022 3 The Colombian Milds-Other Milds and the Brazilian Naturals-Robusta differential both took the hardest hit from Septem

14、ber to October 2022,retracting 17.8%and 17.5%.The differential for the aforementioned period shrank from 26.60 to 21.87 US cents/lb and 108.23 to 89.25 US cents/lb.The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential declined by 6.5%to 69.68 US cents/lb in October 2022.The Colombian Milds-Robustas di

15、fferential shrank by 13.0%to 158.94 US cents/lb.The strongest differential amongst all groups is the Other Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential,declining only 0.2%,to 47.82 US cents/lb.Lastly,the Other Milds-Robustas differential lost 12.2%from September to October 2022.The average monthly differen

16、tial stood at 137.07 US cents/lb,down from 156.13 in September 2022.The arbitrage between the New York and London Futures markets shrank by 15.4%,falling to 99.56 US Cents/lb in October 2022 from 117.74 US cents/lb in September 2022 as the price decline was more marked for Arabica than Robusta,marki

17、ng a reversal of the previous trend.Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP decreased 1.2 percentage points between September and October 2022,reaching a low of 7.1%.Robustas and the London futures market presented the lowest volatility amongst all group indicators,at 5.8%and 5.7%,respectively,in October

18、2022.The Brazilian Naturals volatility was the highest amongst the group indicators,averaging 9.6%,a 1.3 percentage point decrease from the previous month.The variation in volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds for September to October 2022 is-0.6 to 7.4%and-1.0 to 7.6%,respectively.The N

19、ew York futures market remained the most volatile,albeit posting a decrease of 1.4 percentage points,averaging 9.8%for the month of October 2022.25456585105125145US cents/lbFigure 3:Arbitrage between New York and London futures markets0%5%10%15%20%VolatilityFigure 4:Rolling 30-day volatility of the

20、ICO composite indicator priceCoffee Market Report October 2022 4 The New York certified stocks decreased 9.3%from the previous month,closing in at 0.41 million bags,whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.52 million bags,representing a decrease of 4.3%.Export by Coffee Groups Global expo

21、rts of green beans were down 1.1%in coffee year 2021/22,totalling 116.07 million bags from 117.32 million bags in coffee year 2020/21.This marks the third largest annual exports in volume on record,with the biggest ever exports having been seen in coffee year 2018/19 when 121.32 million bags of gree

22、n beans were shipped.Fundamentally,the decrease in green bean exports is a reflection of reduced world coffee production,which is estimated to be down 2.1%to 167.17 million bags for coffee year 2021/22,as compared with an estimated 170.83 million bags in coffee year 2020/21.The performances of the f

23、our groupings were varied in coffee year 2021/22,with the Brazilian Naturals and Colombian Milds down and the Other Milds and Robustas up.The exports of the Brazilian Naturals were down by 4.3%to 37.83 million bags in coffee year 2021/22 from 39.54 million bags in coffee year 2020/21.The downturn wa

24、s driven by Brazil,the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals,with its total green bean exports decreasing by 12.5%in coffee year 2021/22.An estimated smaller crop harvested during its Arabica“off-season”and issues with containers and shipping reported earlier in the coffee year are

25、,in turn,the main reasons behind Brazils poor performance.Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 7.1%in coffee year 2021/22,falling to 12.14 million bags from 2022 from 13.07 million bags in the previous coffee year.This is the lowest volume of exports since 2015,when total shipments of green b

26、eans totalled 12.78 million bags.The main origin contributing to the overall drop for the group can be traced to Colombia,the biggest producer and exporter of the Colombian Milds,with the countrys exports falling to 10.84 million bags,the lowest level since 2014.The fall in Colombias exports is link

27、ed to unfavourable weather conditions,reducing the available coffee supply in the country,with the total output estimated to be down 13%in coffee year 2021/22 to 11.68 million bags.Coffee Market Report October 2022 5 Shipments of the Other Milds increased by 1.3%in coffee year 2021/22,rising to 23.9

28、 million bags from 23.59 million bags in the previous coffee year.The small uptick in the exports of the Other Milds was mainly the result of a confluence of struggles between Honduras and Guatemala,the first and third largest exporters of the Other Milds,and Peru and Nicaragua,the second and fourth

29、 largest exporters of the Other Milds which both recorded a stellar performance.In Honduras,the coffee industry has been struggling with leaf-rust that hit the industrys harvests,while Guatemala has been dealing with impact of a lower production,due mainly to climatic reasons and availability of lab

30、our,which lowered the exports by 7.6%and 20.0%,respectively,to 3.41 million bags and 4.7 million bags.For Nicaragua,coffee year 2021/22 has been a record year,as it shipped 2.87 million bags of green beans,the highest level on record,while for Peru total exports of green beans were 4.58 million bags

31、,the second highest on record,just behind the 4.69 million bags shipped in coffee year 2011/12.Exports of the Robustas totalled 42.2 million bags in coffee year 2021/22,up 2.6%as compared with 41.12 million bags in coffee year 2020/21.Vietnam and India were the two main positive highlights for coffe

32、e year 2021/22 for the Robustas,with the respective exports of green beans increasing by 15.1%and 26.1%to 26.78 million bags and 5.01 million bags.Burundi and Uganda were the two main negative highlights,with their respective exports of green beans decreasing by 62.1%and 10.0%to 134,000 bags and 5.8

33、5 million bags.Export by Regions In October 2021 to September 2022,South Americas exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 7.1%to 55.31 million bags.Brazil is the reason for the drop in exports,with shipments from the country declining by 11.4%to 38.12 million bags.This is the first time since 20

34、17 that Brazils annual exports of all forms of coffee have fallen below the 40 million bags mark.As explained earlier in this Report,a smaller crop harvested during its Arabica“off-season”and problems with containers and shipping explain the large drop in exports in Brazil.Exports of all forms of co

35、ffee from Asia&Oceania increased by 12.8%to 43.86 million bags in coffee year 2021/22.Vietnams exports increased by 14.8%to 28.19 million bags from 01020304050Colombian MildsOther MildsBrazilian NaturalsRobustasMillionsFigure 6:Green Exports(October-September)2018/192019/202020/212021/22Coffee Marke

36、t Report October 2022 6 24.56 million bags in coffee year 2020/21,which made the regions biggest producer and exporter also the single largest absolute contributor to Asia&Oceanias strong gains in exports in coffee year 2021/22.Indias exports of all forms of coffee jumped 21.7%in coffee year 2021/22

37、,rising to 7.24 million bags from 5.95 million bags in coffee year 2020/21.Indonesia,the third largest producer and exporter of the region,saw its exports of all forms of coffee increase marginally to 6.92 million bags in coffee year 2021/22 from 6.82 million bags in the previous coffee year.Exports

38、 of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 5.1%to 13.73 million bags in coffee year 2021/22 from 14.48 million bags in the previous coffee year.As explained earlier within this Report,Burundi and Uganda were the two main contributors to the regions downturn.Ugandas decrease in exports is expla

39、ined by the impact of drought in most of the coffee growing regions,which led to a shorter main harvest season in central and eastern parts of Uganda,and hence lower output and exports.Ethiopia,the second largest producer and exporter of the region,saw its exports of all forms of coffee increase mar

40、ginally to 4.02 million bags in coffee year 2021/22 from 3.98 million bags in the previous coffee year.In October 2021 to September 2022,exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico&Central America were down 3.3%to 16.09 million bags as compared with 16.63 million in coffee year 2020/21.Honduras was t

41、he single largest contributor to the regions downturn,with the countrys exports of all forms of coffee down 20.0%,a loss of 1.17 million bags versus the volume shipped in coffee year 2020/21.Costa Rica and Guatemala were the next two biggest contributors,with their absolute decreases recorded at 50,

42、576 bags and 280,445 bags,respectively.010203040506070AfricaAsia&OceaniaCentral America&MexicoSouth AmericaMillionsFigure 7:Total Exports(October-September)2018/192019/202020/212021/22Coffee Market Report October 2022 7 Export by Forms of Coffee Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 6.1%in co

43、ffee year 2021/22 to 12.1 million bags from 11.4 million bags in coffee year 2020/21.The share of soluble coffee of the total exports of all forms of coffee was 9.4%for the year,the highest on record.Brazil was the largest exporter of soluble coffee,shipping 3.89 million bags,followed by India with

44、2.22 million bags,with Indonesia in third place at 1.66 million bags exported in coffee year 2021/22.Exports of roasted beans increased by 5.0%in coffee year 2021/22 to 0.82 million bags.Production and Consumption The estimated outlook for total production in coffee year 2021/22 remains unchanged at

45、 167.2 million bags,a 2.1%decrease as compared to 170.83 million bags in the previous coffee year.World coffee consumption was projected to grow by 3.3%to 170.3 million 60-kg bags in 2021/22 as compared to 164.9 million for coffee year 2020/21.In 2021/22,consumption was expected to exceed production

46、 by 3.1 million bags.0204060801001201401602018/192019/202020/212021/22Million 60-kg bags of GBEFigure 8:Total Exports(October-September)GreenRoastedSolubleCoffee Market Report October 2022 8 Table 1:ICO daily indicator prices and futures prices(US cents/lb)ICO CompositeColombian MildsOther MildsBraz

47、ilian NaturalsRobustasNew York*London*Monthly averagesNov-21195.17279.56258.95218.90109.40223.94100.30Dec-21203.06290.57267.71230.26112.76234.14104.14Jan-22204.29294.93271.08233.80109.71236.13101.06Feb-22210.89306.36279.83245.05109.44245.38100.58Mar-22194.78285.81258.49222.03103.82222.4495.21Apr-221

48、98.37292.64265.40226.11103.96225.3795.07May-22193.71286.44260.42217.84103.10218.6194.31Jun-22202.46301.57273.69230.40103.81229.3894.48Jul-22190.82286.07255.91214.80100.44210.8489.60Aug-22200.11295.66268.43221.91109.65218.5398.75Sep-22199.63294.09267.49219.59111.36218.24100.49Oct-22178.54261.95240.08

49、192.27103.01191.7292.16%change between Sep-22 and Oct-22-10.6%-10.9%-10.2%-12.4%-7.5%-12.1%-8.3%Volatility(%)Sep-228.3%8.0%8.6%10.9%7.3%11.2%7.0%Oct-227.1%7.4%7.6%9.6%5.8%9.8%5.7%Variation between Sep-22 and Oct-22-1.2-0.6-1.0-1.3-1.5-1.4-1.3*Average prices for 2nd and 3rd positionsTable 2:Price dif

50、ferentials(US cents/lb)Colombian MildsOther MildsColombian MildsBrazilian NaturalsColombian MildsRobustasOther MildsBrazilian NaturalsOther MildsRobustasBrazilian NaturalsRobustasNew York*London*Oct-2117.8158.89153.6341.08135.8294.74109.69Nov-2120.6160.66170.1640.05149.55109.50123.64Dec-2122.8660.31

51、177.8137.45154.95117.50130.00Jan-2223.8561.13185.2237.28161.37124.09135.07Feb-2226.5261.30196.9234.78170.39135.61144.80Mar-2227.3363.79181.9936.46154.66118.21127.23Apr-2227.2466.53188.6839.28161.44122.15130.30May-2226.0268.60183.3442.57157.32114.75124.30Jun-2227.8871.18197.7643.29169.88126.59134.90J

52、ul-2230.1671.27185.6341.10155.46114.36121.24Aug-2227.2373.75186.0146.52158.78112.26119.79Sep-2226.6074.50182.7447.90156.13108.23117.74Oct-2221.8769.68158.9447.82137.0789.2599.56%change between Sep-22 and Oct-22-17.8%-6.5%-13.0%-0.2%-12.2%-17.5%-15.4%*Average prices for 2nd and 3rd positionsCoffee Ma

53、rket Report October 2022 9 Table 4:Total exports by exporting countriesSep-21Sep-22%change2020/212021/22%changeTOTAL10,263 9,946 -3.1%129,508 128,986 -0.4%Arabicas6,302 6,390 1.4%82,535 80,634 -2.3%Colombian Milds1,168 925 -20.8%14,152 13,317 -5.9%Other Milds1,998 1,923 -3.7%26,015 26,690 2.6%Brazil

54、ian Naturals3,136 3,541 12.9%42,368 40,627 -4.1%Robustas3,962 3,556 -10.2%46,974 48,352 2.9%In thousand 60-kg bagsMonthly trade statistics are available on the ICO website at www.ico.org/trade_statistics.aspYear to Date Coffee YearTable 5:Certified stocks on the New York and London futures marketsNo

55、v-21Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22 Mar-22Apr-22 May-22Jun-22Jul-22 Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22New York1.711.661.391.081.231.201.161.040.770.720.450.41London1.781.661.571.541.631.561.711.761.801.611.591.52In million 60-kg bagsCoffee Market Report October 2022 10 Explanatory Note for Table 3 For each year,the Secretariat

56、uses statistics received from Members to provide estimates and forecasts for annual production,consumption,trade and stocks.As noted in paragraph 100 of document ICC 120-16,these statistics can be supplemented and complemented by data from other sources when information received from Members is inco

57、mplete,delayed or inconsistent.The Secretariat also considers multiple sources for generating supply and demand balance sheets for non-Members.The Secretariat uses the concept of the marketing year,that is the coffee year commencing on 1 October of each year,when looking at the global supply and dem

58、and balance.Coffee-producing countries are located in different regions around the world,with various crop years,i.e.the 12-month period from one harvest to the next.The crop years currently used by the Secretariat commence on 1 April,1 July and 1 October.To maintain consistency,the Secretariat conv

59、erts production data from a crop year basis to a marketing year basis depending on the harvest months for each country.Using a coffee year basis for the global coffee supply and demand,as well as prices,ensures that analysis of the market situation occurs within the same time period.For example,the

60、2018/19 coffee year began on 1 October 2018 and ended 30 September 2019.However,for producers with crop years commencing on 1 April,the crop year production occurs across two coffee years.Brazils 2018/19 crop year began on 1 April 2018 and finished 31 March 2019,covering the first half of coffee yea

61、r 2018/19.However,Brazils 2019/20 crop year commenced 1 April 2019 and ended 31 March 2020,covering the latter half of coffee year 2019/20.In order to bring the crop year production into a single coffee year,the Secretariat would allocate a portion of the AprilMarch 2018/19 crop year production and

62、a portion of the AprilMarch 2019/20 production into 2018/19 coffee year production.It should be noted that while estimates for coffee year production are created for each individual country,these are made for the purpose of creating a consistent aggregated supply-demand balance for analytical purpos

63、es and does not represent the production occurring on the ground within the individual countries.Note:Materials provided may be used,reproduced,or transmitted,in whole or in part,in any form or by any means,electronic or mechanical,including photocopying,recording or the use of any information storage and retrieval system,if the International Coffee Organization(ICO)is clearly acknowledged as the source.*