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1、The Voluntary Carbon Market:Climate Finance at an Inflection PointB R I E F I N G P A P E RJ A N U A R Y 2 0 2 3In collaboration with Bain&CompanyContentsIntroduction1 The need for a well-functioning voluntary carbon market2 The carbon market is at an inflection point3 Five key recommendations to sc

2、ale responsible engagement in the carbon market4 Building and evolving the credit portfolio over timeContributorsEndnotes3469111314Cover:Gettyimages/weerapatkiatdumrong Inside:Gettyimages/Andriy OnufriyenkoDisclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a proje

3、ct,insight area or interaction.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum,nor the entirety of its Membe

4、rs,Partners or other stakeholders.2023 World Economic Forum.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.The Voluntary Carbon Market:Climate Finance

5、 at an Inflection Point 2The Voluntary Carbon Market:Climate Finance at an Inflection Point January 2023IntroductionThe corporate net-zero imperative:accelerating decarbonization and investing in nature.The science is clear:the world must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43%by 2030 to limit global

6、 warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.1Mitigation plans must reduce emissions across company operations and value chains,while investing in nature in parallel.According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),the net CO2 emissions from land use,land-use change and forestry cont

7、ributed to around 10%of global emissions between 2010 and 2019.2 Deforestation is responsible for nearly 15%of global CO2 emissions.3 Failure to invest in nature and to prevent or reverse natural loss increases global emissions.Natural climate solutions can provide one-third of the mitigation requir

8、ed by 2030 to achieve global climate goals and are some of the few solutions that are ready today for carbon removal.4 Conserving natural carbon sinks has significant benefits beyond emissions reduction:around 350 million people rely directly on forests for more than 20%of their income,5 and 80%of t

9、errestrial species reside in tropical forests.6This means governments and businesses must continue to commit to and implement direct decarbonization policies and actions that align with the pace of decarbonization required by science.For companies,it means acting on the following critical levers:7 D

10、irect mitigation by decarbonizing Scope 1,2 and 3 emissions at a pace consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.Investing in the protection and restoration of ecosystems beyond the emissions reductions in their own operations;for example,through high-integrity carbon credi

11、ts and investment in nature-positive projects.Purchasing high-quality carbon credits from projects that remove and sequester carbon from the atmosphere to balance out truly unavoidable emissions at net zero.The voluntary carbon market(VCM)is expected to have channelled more than$1.2 billion in inves

12、tment flows over 2022,helping to mitigate about 161 megatonnes(Mt)of carbon emissions8 but it is at an inflection point,and it has come under greater scrutiny.Is it working to deliver the promised outcomes?Should companies invest as part of their corporate decarbonization strategies?How can such inv

13、estment be directed in a nature-positive direction with integrity and impact?What is the best way to scale such investments?This briefing paper provides an insight into the critical challenges delaying the market from achieving scale as well as an initial set of recommendations that corporate leader

14、s can adopt and support to address these challenges as part of a decarbonization agenda.The paper serves as the basis for further dialogue to pave the way for wider action in 2023.The Voluntary Carbon Market:Climate Finance at an Inflection Point 3The need for a well-functioning voluntary carbon mar

15、ketPut simply,companies will need all available levers to achieve their targets and mitigate delivery risk.Nature offers one of the most effective near-term means of reducing emissions.To decarbonize without addressing nature loss will fail to capture some of the lowest-risk decarbonization solution

16、s available.Additionally,investing today in engineered solutions will help reduce the green premium for solutions that will be critical to achieving corporate decarbonization strategies and limiting warming to a 1.5-degree trajectory.The IPCC has clearly stated that carbon removals will be critical

17、to achieving this objective in the Summary for Policymakers of the Sixth Assessment Report.9 Whether through a voluntary or compliance market structure that evolves over time,companies will need to use limited offset solutions to balance their unavoidable residual emissions.Carbon credits are the es

18、sential“net”in net zero to balance carbon accounts between emissions and reductions.1Meeting corporate commitments to deliver net-zero pathways represents a material challenge for all companies.Voluntary carbon markets will be important to go the last mile,i.e.neutralize the last 10%of emissions tha

19、t cant be further reduced.Business Vice-President,Energy and Climate,Chemical CompanyBottom-up analysis of the 2,000 leading global companies by Bain&Company suggests the voluntary carbon market could provide demand for up to 2.6 gigatonnes(Gt)of carbon credits by 2030,a factor approximately 13 time

20、s larger than the market in 2021.10 However,decisive action is needed to scale this market from around 0.2 Gt of CO2e(CO2 equivalent:the warming potential of greenhouse gases expressed in units of CO2 impact)in 2021 and ensure that it functions in service of the potential environmental and societal

21、outcomes it promises.11The Voluntary Carbon Market:Climate Finance at an Inflection Point 4Increase in ecosystem protection and restorationNatural climate solutions account for a third of the mitigation required by 2030 to keep global warming below 2CCritical lever for companies to achieve their net

22、-zero targetsHalf of natural climate solutions(11.3 Gt CO2e)cost less than$100/t of CO2Increase capital flows into carbon reductions and removalsThe voluntary carbon market is expected to have channelled more than$1.2 billion in investment flows over 2022,helping to mitigate 161 Mt carbon emissionsB

23、etter preservation of biodiversity80%of terrestrial species reside in tropical forestsProtection of local communities livelihoods350 million people depend on forests for their subsistence,with 20%of their income coming from forest sources The voluntary carbon market provides considerable opportuniti

24、esFIGURE 1Source:WBSCD,Trove Research,WWF,the World BankThe Voluntary Carbon Market:Climate Finance at an Inflection Point 5The carbon market is at an inflection point2Urgent interventions,market reforms and corporate commitments to ensure credible participation in the carbon market are urgently nee

25、ded.These are the preconditions to growing market scale.Necessary actions include reforms to increase the credibility of supply and demand,and the transparency of the market connecting the two.Waiting until 2030 to do so is not an option.The global price of inaction is high.Market participants will

26、instead need to find ways to address these challenges.Despite this potential and the urgent need to take action to avoid further deforestation(and the associated emissions and loss of biodiversity),the voluntary carbon market is at a turning point.2.1 Three key challenges the market facesProject qua

27、lity and credibility The supply side requires reform to ensure that carbon credits are a trustworthy representation of real mitigation action.The action must also be additional that is,it would not have happened without the income from carbon credits and permanent,and it must not result in adverse e

28、ffects within or outside of its boundary.Emerging guidance from initiatives such as the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market(ICVCM)will be critical for bringing the credibility needed to scale the market significantly.The Voluntary Carbon Market:Climate Finance at an Inflection Point 6B

29、uilding the business case and commitment for participation in a time of evolving standards On the demand side,a lack of short-term urgency,market imperfections and reputational risk are holding corporates back from scaling their funding of climate action through carbon markets.12Many corporates are

30、in a waiting position because it is safe.We need to make it more risky to wait than to act.Climate action director,technology companyA survey conducted in the fourth quarter of 2022 by the World Economic Forum in partnership with Bain&Company shows that,while more than 90%of corporate respondents ta

31、rget net zero by 2050,less than 25%of these respondents plan to compensate for any emissions before achieving net zero.More than 50%of the respondents highlight market imperfections and a lack of transparency on climate impact and quality as reasons for their inaction and unwillingness to participat

32、e in the voluntary carbon market.Additionally,respondents emphasize the reputational risk of participating,with concern about public criticism,including legal action.Leading companies are investing a great deal of time and effort to ensure the quality and integrity of their carbon investments,yet a

33、lack of standards and guidelines makes“good”market participation indistinguishable from investment in low-quality projects.As a result of this uncertainty,retirement of carbon credits(the action representing the claim of the attached climate benefit)declined by 3%in 2022(from 2021)compared to an ave

34、rage annual growth of 48%from 20192021.13 The Voluntary Carbon Market Integrity Initiative(VCMI)seeks to introduce and scale the use of new threshold standards for high-quality carbon credits to help increase the integrity of the market supply.The Voluntary Carbon Market:Climate Finance at an Inflec

35、tion Point 7Reform requirements to build transparency and trust In addition to critical improvements needed in supply and demand,the transparency of the market urgently needs to be improved.Recent reports suggest that in some cases significant shares of end-user costs do not reach the projects and c

36、ommunities that so acutely need financial support.14 There are important opportunities for market reform that would increase transparency and ensure that market capital flows to where it should.Global standards and integrity bodies could play a vital role in defining norms for and instilling confide

37、nce in the use of credits.A report by the UN-commissioned High-Level Expert Group on Credible Net-Zero Claims for Non-State Actors supports global standardization for example,through standardized reporting formats and a global database.15 Additionally,consensus on legal definitions of terms such as“

38、net zero”and“carbon neutral”could provide clear guidance and confidence to actors genuinely trying to create positive climate impacts,while reducing opportunities for companies trying to avoid meaningful,difficult actions that mislead consumers and investors.The need for direct regulation of VCMs is

39、 likely to become especially important as the boundaries between voluntary carbon markets,compliance carbon markets and sovereign carbon credit mechanisms under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement increasingly blur.The design of much-needed regulatory regimes can provide upfront clarity as to how and u

40、nder what conditions VCMs can be used.The recent introduction of the Singapore carbon tax mechanism is an example worthy of further assessment.Lack of urgency given limited benefitLimited recognition from regulatory bodies resulting in lack of urgency to purchase creditsMajority of survey respondent

41、s do not have a near-term climate ambition that involves the use of carbon creditsClimate Ambition-Forecast%of respondents55%0100(20%)Net zero/carbon neutral(90%)20252050Market imperfectionsMarket imperfections leading to high barrier to entry of respondents highlight lack of transparency in the mar

42、ket55%of respondents flag varying quality definitions of carbon credits50%of respondents mention complex landscape of standardsWe need to have easy access to more detailed information on projects(precise impact on community and biodiversity)and be able to monitor the actual impact over time.Global c

43、limate lead,manufacturing company40%Reputational risk of participatingPotential for public criticism creating concern for reputational risk of respondents are concerned about reputational riskCommunication around carbon credits is highly risky there is currently a class action in the US for one of o

44、ur competitor brands.General counsel,consumer goods companyVoluntary carbon markets are not endorsed by SBTi,so why would we buy carbon credits?Chief sustainability and innovation officer,manufacturing company50Lack of urgency,market imperfections and reputational risk are holding corporates backFIG

45、URE 2Note:Survey questions this data is based on:“Has your company pledged to be fully net zero by 2050 or sooner?”(n=137);“Does your company claim carbon neutrality(or an equivalent term)before reaching net zero?”(n=130);“Which are the complexities that you face/foresee on your engagement with volu

46、ntary carbon markets?”(n=127).Source:Voluntary Carbon Markets Survey(n=137);Voluntary Carbon Market interviewsThe Voluntary Carbon Market:Climate Finance at an Inflection Point 8Five key recommendations to scale responsible engagement in the carbon market3To bring the market to its full potential an

47、d accelerate climate action,wider private-sector participation with credible near-term decarbonization plans is needed.Companies should step up and commit to meaningful procurement(or generation)and subsequent retirement of high-quality carbon credits that support the environmental and societal bene

48、fits beyond their value chain.To help scale meaningful climate action using carbon markets,it is recommended that climate leaders follow five critical steps.Step 1:Set a decarbonization pathway aligned with scientific recommendations to ensure demand-side credibility in the use of carbon creditsComp

49、anies with credible near-term decarbonization plans need to communicate how offsets will be integrated into those decarbonization plans and will complement,not replace,direct carbon abatement.Step 2:Acknowledge the urgency of protecting natural carbon sinks and other high-integrity community-based p

50、rojectsCompanies should integrate their nature and climate strategies into the core of their decarbonization efforts.Doing so is an economically rational lever for any chief executive officer or board that can be part of a broader nature-positive sustainability endeavour,while delivering on other go

51、als such as biodiversity and community development.Step 3:Adopt and scale leading standards and practices critical to improving quality and establishing credibility of corporate credit use(e.g.the ICVCM or the VCMI)There is need for common global standards and more independent third-party verifiers

52、to provide certainty about carbon credits and their use.Yet the slow pace at which standards are evolving and projects are certified has constrained stakeholders ability to respond.This could push some companies to seek new standards,which consequently leads Leadership will be critical in driving th

53、e voluntary carbon market into its next chapter.The Voluntary Carbon Market:Climate Finance at an Inflection Point 9to market fragmentation.Market infrastructure needs to be credible and quickly scalable to work.Step 4:Create market transparency through corporate disclosures on climate and nature im

54、pact,project types,pricing and transaction costs and flows Lack of transparency of capital and credit flows creates uncertainty about the actual impact of the market.Participants need to find the right approach to disclosure and compliance that allows scaling and innovation,which may include non-ide

55、ntifiable disclosure aggregation,being more prescriptive in their sourcing strategies,using independent ratings and tapping new technology-based solutions such as measurement,reporting and verification(MRV).Step 5:Amplify corporate commitments to immediate participation at scale through collective a

56、ction to establish credibility while signalling demand to the marketA collective approach that aligns on credible strategies and focuses on the highest-quality credits can mitigate the risk of perceived greenwashing.It sends a strong signal of support for climate action beyond value chains,which put

57、s corporates on the front foot with their climate change strategies.This helps to encourage more market participation and creates clear demand signals.It will take years for the market and standards to mature,so industry-specific alignment is needed to agree on the right direction while meeting the

58、imperative for individual and collective climate action today.Strong uptake and trust in VCMsLimited traction in VCMs0.2 Gt2.6 GtCurrent2030 potentialscenariosProgressive enhancements in VCMsVCM impact potential(in CO2e)Set a decarbonization pathway aligned with scientific recommendations to ensure

59、demand-side credibility in the use of carbon credits01Acknowledge the urgency of protecting natural carbon sinks and other high-integrity community based projects02Adopt and scale leading standards and practices critical to improving quality and establishing credibility of corporate credit use(e.g.t

60、he ICVCM or the VCMI)03Create market transparency through corporate disclosures on climate and nature impact,project types,pricing and transaction costs and flows04Amplify corporate commitments to immediate participation at scale through collective action to establish credibility while signalling de

61、mand to the market05Five actions to drive meaningful participation in the voluntary carbon marketFIGURE 3Source:Voluntary Carbon Markets Survey(n=137);Voluntary Carbon Market interviews;Bain&Company database;Net-Zero Tracker;Refinitiv;CDP;IEA;EnerData;World Bank Carbon Pricing Dashboard;Bain&Company

62、 analysis The Voluntary Carbon Market:Climate Finance at an Inflection Point 10Building and evolving the credit portfolio over time4To achieve net zero,companies will need their own strategies to move forward,ones that fit their objectives for climate,nature and wider sustainability.Best practices a

63、nd principles are emerging that offer guidance for corporate action and portfolio construction.The Oxford Principles for Net Zero Aligned Carbon Offsetting provides one example of a targeted portfolio for carbon credit procurement after committing to decarbonization aligned with science-based pathwa

64、ys.16 A strategy encompassing collective action by industry value chain,a portfolio approach to sourcing carbon credits and clear communication of a companys action constitutes a viable pathway.It taps the most economical sources for carbon offsetting today(nature),supports industry investment at sc

65、ale via common practices and progressively invests in emerging carbon removal technology over time.In the short term,corporates should seek high-quality credits with short-lived storage like those from nature conservation and restoration.These channel much-needed funds into preserving natural carbon

66、 stocks by avoiding emissions,reducing emissions and removing carbon.In doing so,they should focus on projects that maximize co-benefits,focusing on natural,biodiverse ecosystems of domestic species(not monoculture plantations)with additional benefits for local communities.In the mid to long term,co

67、rporates should gradually shift to financing carbon dioxide removals(CDR)with long-term storage.The technologies for this include Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage(DACCS),Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage(BECCS),Biomass with Carbon Removal and Storage(BiCRS)and enhanced weathering.Engine

68、ered and nature-based carbon removal credits should constitute the majority of carbon portfolios after 2040.17 The Voluntary Carbon Market:Climate Finance at an Inflection Point 11To navigate the more immediate future,the recommendations outlined in this paper suggest a point of departure for corpor

69、ates to use the voluntary carbon market well.Wider dialogue is planned to shape an agenda for collective action in 2023 and provide optimal pathways for companies to follow.What can a net-zero-aligned carbon credit portfolio look like?FIGURE 4Nature-based avoidanceIllustrative/indicativeNet-zero-ali

70、gned carbon credits portfolioBest practice in three steps%breakdown of carbon credit portfolio over time11Nature-based removal2Engineeredremoval3Cut emissions and,in the short term,use high-quality avoidance credits from nature conservation2Shift the portfolio towards nature-based removal,e.g.refore

71、station3Remove carbon from atmosphere using engineered solutions0%20%40%60%80%100%2020203020402050Source:Based on The Oxford Principles for Net Zero Aligned Carbon OffsettingThe Voluntary Carbon Market:Climate Finance at an Inflection Point 12ContributorsWorld Economic ForumAntonia Gawel Head,Climat

72、e Change;Member of the Executive Committee,World Economic Forum,SwitzerlandNasim Pour Lead,Carbon Removals and Market Innovation,World Economic Forum,SwitzerlandBain&CompanyClaudia Brechenmacher Senior Manager,Bain&Company,SingaporeDale Hardcastle Head of Carbon Markets,Bain&Company,SingaporeHenning

73、 Huenteler Expert Associate Partner,Bain&Company,The NetherlandsAnn Siml Senior Manager,Bain&Company,United KingdomEva Wilde Senior Manager,Bain&Company,United KingdomThe Voluntary Carbon Market:Climate Finance at an Inflection Point 131.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),Sixth Assessme

74、nt Report:Climate Change 2022:Mitigation of Climate Change,2022:https:/www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2022/06/SBSTA_IPCC_WGIIIPresentation.pdf.2.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,Climate Change 2022,Mitigation of Climate Change,2022:https:/www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR

75、6_WGIII_SPM.pdf.3.World Economic Forum,Forests for Climate:Scaling up Forest Conservation to Reach Net Zero,2022:https:/www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Forests_for_Climate_2022.pdf.4.Beare,Peter,“Natural Climate Solutions and Human Rights”,WBCSD,30 January 2019:https:/www.wbcsd.org/Overview/News-Insights/

76、WBCSD-insights/Natural-Climate-Solutions-and-Human-Rights.5.The World Bank,“Forest and Terrestrial Ecosystems(Landscapes)”:https:/www.worldbank.org/en/topic/forests.6.WWF,“Tropical Rainforests”:https:/wwf.panda.org/discover/our_focus/forests_practice/importance_forests/tropical_rainforest.7.Science

77、Based Targets,Foundations for Science-Based Net-Zero Target Setting in the Corporate Sector,2020:https:/sciencebasedtargets.org/resources/files/foundations-for-net-zero-executive-summary.pdf;The United Nations High-Level Expert Group on the Net Zero Emissions Commitments of Non-State Entities,Integr

78、ity Matters:Net Zero Commitments by Businesses,Financial Institutions,Cities and Regions,2022:https:/www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/high-level_expert_group_n7b.pdf.8.Trove Research,“Trove Research 3Q22 Voluntary Carbon Market Webinar”,YouTube,27 October 2022:https:/youtu.be/Wi9uVW4DwKE?t=808.9.In

79、tergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),Sixth Assessment Report:Headline Statements from the Summary for Policymakers,4 April 2022:https:/report.ipcc.ch/ar6wg3/pdf/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_HeadlineStatements.pdf.10.Bain&Company analysis.11.Trove Research,“Trove Research 3Q22 Voluntary Carbon Market Webi

80、nar”,YouTube,27 October 2022:https:/youtu.be/Wi9uVW4DwKE?t=808.12.Bain&Company analysis.13.Verra,Verra Registry,2022:https:/registry.verra.org/.14.Hodgson,Camilla,“Surge of Investment into Carbon Credits Creates Boom Time for Brokers”,Financial Times,2 May 2022:https:/ Haldevang,Max,“BP Paid Rural M

81、exicans a Pittance for Wall Streets Favorite Climate Solution”,Bloomberg,27 June 2022:https:/ United Nations High-Level Expert Group on the Net Zero Emissions Commitments of Non-State Entities,Integrity Matters:Net Zero Commitments by Businesses,Financial Institutions,Cities and Regions,November 202

82、2:https:/www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/high-level_expert_group_n7b.pdf.16.Allen,Myles,Kaya Axelsson,Ben Caldecott,et al.,The Oxford Principles for Net Zero Aligned Carbon Offsetting,September 2020:https:/www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2022-01/Oxford-Offsetting-Principles-2020.pdf.1

83、7.Ibid.EndnotesThe Voluntary Carbon Market:Climate Finance at an Inflection Point 14World Economic Forum9193 route de la CapiteCH-1223 Cologny/GenevaSwitzerland Tel.:+41(0)22 869 1212Fax:+41(0)22 786 2744contactweforum.orgwww.weforum.orgThe World Economic Forum,committed to improving the state of the world,is the International Organization for Public-Private Cooperation.The Forum engages the foremost political,business and other leaders of society to shape global,regional and industry agendas.