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1、Royal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018DEFINITIONS&CAUTIONARY NOTE2Reserves:Our use of the term“reserves”in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves.Resources:Our use of the term“resources”in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil

2、 and gas reserves.Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers(SPE)2P+2C definitions.Operating costs are defined as underlying operating expenses,which are operating expenses less identified items.Organic free cash flow is defined as free cash flow excluding inorganic capital inv

3、estment and divestment proceeds.Clean CCS ROACE(Return on Average Capital Employed)is defined as defined as the sum of CCS earnings attributable to shareholders excluding identified items for the current and previous three quarters,as a percentage of the average capital employed for the same period.

4、Capital employed consists of total equity,current debt and non-current debt.Capital investment comprises capital expenditure,exploration expense excluding well write-offs,new investments in joint ventures and associates,new finance leases and investments in Integrated Gas,Upstream and Downstream sec

5、urities,all of which on an accruals basis.In 2016,the capital investment was impacted by the acquisition of BG Group plc.which are included in“Change in non-controlling interest”within“Cash flow from financing(CFFF)activities”.Divestments comprises proceeds from sale of property,plant and equipment

6、and businesses,joint ventures and associates,and other Integrated Gas,Upstream and Downstream investments,reported in“Cash flow from investing activities(CFFI)”,adjusted onto an accruals basis and for any share consideration received or contingent consideration recognised upon divestment,as well as

7、proceeds from the sale of interests in entities while retaining control(for example,proceeds from sale of interest in Shell Midstream Partners,L.P.),This presentation contains the following forward-looking Non-GAAP measures:Organic Free Cash Flow,Free Cash Flow,Capital Investment,CCS Earnings,CCS Ea

8、rnings less identified items,Gearing,Underlying Operating Expenses,ROACE,Capital Employed and Divestments.We are unable to provide a reconciliation of the above forward-looking Non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures because certain information needed to reconcile the above

9、Non-GAAP measure to the most comparable GAAP financial measure is dependent on future events some which are outside the control of the company,such as oil and gas prices,interest rates and exchange rates.Moreover,estimating such GAAP measures consistent with the company accounting policies and the r

10、equired precision necessary to provide a meaningful reconciliation is extremely difficult and could not be accomplished without unreasonable effort.Non-GAAP measures in respect of future periods which cannot be reconciled to the most comparable GAAP financial measure are calculated in a manner which

11、 is consistent with the accounting policies applied in Royal Dutch Shell plcs financial statements.The financial measures provided by strategic themes represent a notional allocation of ROACE,capital employed,capital investment,free cash flow,organic free cash flow and underlying operating expenses

12、of Shells strategic themes.Shells segment reporting under IFRS 8 remains Integrated Gas,Upstream,Downstream and Corporate.The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities.In this presentation“Shell”,“Shell group”and“Royal Dutch Shell”a

13、re sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general.Likewise,the words“we”,“us”and“our”are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them.These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by

14、 identifying the particular company or companies.Subsidiaries,“Shell subsidiaries”and“Shell companies”as used in this presentation refer to companies over which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control.Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control

15、 are generally referred to“joint ventures”and“joint operations”respectively.Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as“associates”.The term“Shell interest”is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership intere

16、st held by Shell in a venture,partnership or company,after exclusion of all third-party interest.This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition,results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell.All statements other than statements of historical fact

17、are,or may be deemed to be,forward-looking statements.Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on managements current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results,performance or events to dif

18、fer materially from those expressed or implied in these statements.Forward-looking statements include,among other things,statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing managements expectations,beliefs,estimates,forecasts,projections and as

19、sumptions.These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as anticipate,believe,could,estimate,expect,goals,intend,may,objectives,outlook,plan,probably,project,risks,“schedule”,seek,should,target,will and similar terms and phrases.There are a number of factors

20、that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation,including(without limitation):(a)price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas;(b)changes in demand f

21、or Shells products;(c)currency fluctuations;(d)drilling and production results;(e)reserves estimates;(f)loss of market share and industry competition;(g)environmental and physical risks;(h)risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets,and successfu

22、l negotiation and completion of such transactions;(i)the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions;(j)legislative,fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change;(k)economic and financial market conditio

23、ns in various countries and regions;(l)political risks,including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities,delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs;and(m)changes in trading conditions.N

24、o assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments.All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section.Readers should not place

25、 undue reliance on forward-looking statements.Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shells 20-F for the year ended December 31,2016(available at and www.sec.gov).These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward looking statements contained in this p

26、resentation and should be considered by the reader.Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation,February 26,2018.Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result

27、 of new information,future events or other information.In light of these risks,results could differ materially from those stated,implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation.This presentation may contain references to Shells website.These references are for

28、the readers convenience only.Shell is not incorporating by reference any information posted on .We may have used certain terms,such as resources,in this presentation that United States Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC)strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC.U.S.Investo

29、rs are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F,File No 1-32575,available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.Royal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018Queensland Curtis LNG Facility,Australia3The energy challengeGrowing economies need more and cleaner energyPolicy actions for clean ene

30、rgy support gas and LNG Gas plays growing role to meet energy challengeGas supports renewablesOECD leading the move to gas and renewables for power generationStrong China gas demand driven by growth outside powerLNG is the fastest growing gas supply sourceLNG provides new form of energy securityUnpr

31、ecedented LNG capacity expansion 45%completeGlobal LNG market continues to defy expectations29 mt increase in LNG imports in 2017LNG accommodates China growth and seasonal demandSpot prices continue to reflect strong demand for LNGPhysical and financial liquidity increases as market evolvesFast,flex

32、ible FSRUs continue to increase LNG importsDemand for LNG in transport grows globallyLack of supply investment risks future global LNG market growthLNG buyers and their needs are changingLNG buyers signing shorter and smaller contractsLiquefaction investment needed to meet demand growth 01 EXTERNAL

33、ENVIRONMENT CREATING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS AND LNG02 STRONG LNG FUNDAMENTALS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IN 201703 SUPPLY INVESTMENT REQUIRED TO MEET LONG-TERM DEMAND GROWTHCONTENTSRoyal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018EXTERNALENVIRONMENTCREATING MOREOPPORTUNITIES FORGAS AND LNG401Oman LNG facil

34、ityRoyal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT CREATING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS AND LNG5Growing PopulationAccording to the World Bank,global population isexpected to increase fromaround 7 billion today toover 9 billion by 2050,with 66%living in cities.RisingDemandOver a billio

35、n people continue to live without electricity while another billion struggle with unreliable supplies of electricity.According to the International Energy Agency(IEA)New Policies Scenario,global energy demand is expected to grow by 30%between 2015 and 2040.OngoingSupplyAs per IEA,it is expected that

36、 renewable energy could increase significantly by 2040.However,we will still need large amounts of oil and gas to provide the full range of energy products that the world needs.Mitigating Climate ChangeThe world currently emits 32 billion tonnes ofenergy-related CO2 eachyear.To limit the rise in glo

37、bal temperature to 2C,the IEA has calculated that energy related CO2 emissions need to fall to around 18 billion tonnes a year by 2040.Improving AirQualityThe World Health Organization(WHO)has found that outdoor air pollution in both cities and rural areas is estimated to cause some 3 million premat

38、ure deaths a year worldwide.THE ENERGY CHALLENGERoyal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT CREATING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS AND LNG6BangladeshChinaIndiaMyanmarPakistanSouth KoreaThailandVietnam0200,000400,000600,000800,0000%25%50%75%100%ExtremeHighMediumAsia air quality index

39、Coal share in electricity mix(2017)Change in energy demand(2017-2035),KTOEEnergy demand growth vs coal share Energy demand growth vs coal share Air quality index 2017Air quality index 2017GROWING ECONOMIES NEED MORE AND CLEANER ENERGYSource:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie and Verisk Maplecrof

40、t Q4 2017 dataPopulation sizeRoyal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT CREATING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS AND LNGPOLICY ACTIONS FOR CLEAN ENERGY SUPPORT GAS AND LNGGLOBALGLOBALG20 endorses the role of natural gas in energy transitionIEA credits levelling of global CO2 emission

41、s to coal displacementIncreasing recognition of Increasing recognition of environmental benefitsenvironmental benefitsREGIONALREGIONALMore than 10 countries announce coal phase-out ambitions-25%of coal power capacity in EUEU confirms reforms to strengthen EU Emissions Trading SchemeEU policies suppo

42、rting EU policies supporting coal phase outcoal phase outNATIONALNATIONALPolicies favour gas and Policies favour gas and renewablesrenewablesLOCALLOCALBerlin closes local coal-fired power plants to improve air qualityBeijing meets ambitious 2017 air quality targets,supported by coal to gas switching

43、Policymakers targeting Policymakers targeting air qualityair quality7China reforms gas market to increase competitiveness of delivered gasSouth Koreas 8th Basic Plan for Energy prioritises renewables and gas,while not sanctioning new nuclear and coalRoyal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018EXTERNA

44、L ENVIRONMENT CREATING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS AND LNG8Source:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie Q4 2017 data04,0008,00012,00016,00020,00046%18%14%10%7%6%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,00045%27%20%7%BCMGlobal energy demand growth by fuelGlobal energy demand growth by fuelBCMGlobal gas demand growth b

45、y sectorGlobal gas demand growth by sectorGlobal gas demand growth by regionGlobal gas demand growth by regionEnergy demand:1%CAGRGas demand:2%CAGR01,0002,0003,0004,0005,00038%33%14%2%13%BCMCAGR-Compound Annual Growth RateGAS PLAYS GROWING ROLE TO MEET ENERGY CHALLENGEAsia gas demand:3%CAGRRoyal Dut

46、ch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT CREATING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS AND LNG9Source:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie Q4 2017,IHS Markit and CAISO data10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00004812162024Mar-13Mar-17Flexible gas generation complements solar to provide Flexible gas gen

47、eration complements solar to provide reliable power generation in Californiareliable power generation in CaliforniaNet load,MWhFlexible LNG supply balances hydro generation to provide Flexible LNG supply balances hydro generation to provide reliable power in Brazil reliable power in Brazil Reservoir

48、 levelBCM/Month0.000.250.500.751.000%25%50%75%100%North&South hydro reservoir levels(LHS)LNG imports(RHS)GAS SUPPORTS RENEWABLESHour of the dayNet load equals total generation minus solar and wind output;7 day sampleRoyal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT CREATING MORE OPPORT

49、UNITIES FOR GAS AND LNG10SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT CREATING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS AND LNGSource:Shell interpretation of International Energy Agency(IEA)dataOECD electricity output by sourceOECD electricity output by source0%10%20%30%40%50%60%197519801985199019952000200520102015

50、Natural GasCoalNuclearHydroOther renewablesBiofuels and wasteOilShareNonNon-OECD electricity output by sourceOECD electricity output by source0%10%20%30%40%50%60%197519801985199019952000200520102015Natural gasCoalNuclearHydroOther renewablesBiofuels and wasteOilShareOECD LEADING THE MOVE TO GAS AND

51、RENEWABLES FOR POWER GENERATIONRoyal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT CREATING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS AND LNG11China demand growth by sector,2017China demand growth by sector,201701020304050050100150200250200120032005200720092011201320152017Gas demand(LHS)Change YoY(RHS)

52、China gChina gas demandas demandBCMSource:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit,China National Bureau of Statistics and Chinese customs data;latest estimates for 2017STRONG CHINA GAS DEMAND DRIVEN BY GROWTH OUTSIDE POWER2002102202302402502016ElectricityIndustrialRes,comm&heatTransport2017BCMABCMRoyal D

53、utch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT CREATING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS AND LNGSource:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie Q4 2017 dataBCMLNG imports by regionLNG imports by region12LNG IS THE FASTEST GROWING GAS SUPPLY SOURCECAGR-Compound Annual Growth Rate01,0002,0003,0004,0

54、005,0002017DomesticproductionPipelineimportsLNG imports203562%7%31%BCMGlobal gas supply by sourceGlobal gas supply by sourceLNG demand:4%CAGR02004006008001,0002017AsiaEuropeAmericas Middle East&Africa203555%16%15%13%Royal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018Royal Dutch Shell plcEXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

55、 CREATING MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR GAS AND LNG13LNG SOLVES GAS MARKET UNCERTAINTIES:Declining domestic productionPipeline disruptionsFalling nuclear utilisation and reliabilityHydroelectric seasonality,renewable intermittencyWeather disruptionsGeopoliticsTiming of new supplyExisting plant outputChangi

56、ng trade patternsGas supply and demand uncertaintyLNG PROVIDES NEW FORM OF ENERGY SECURITYLNG RESILIENT TO ITS OWN UNCERTAINTIES:Queensland Curtis LNG Facility,AustraliaRoyal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018STRONG LNG FUNDAMENTALS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IN 20171402SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018LNG bunke

57、r vessel Cardissa Royal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018STRONG LNG FUNDAMENTALS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IN 201715Source:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit Q4 2017 dataLNG tradeLNG trade293010020030040020052007200920112013201520172019MTPA(DES)MTPA(FOB)LNG liquefaction capacity additionsLNG liquefa

58、ction capacity additions0%25%50%75%100%01020304050201520162017201820192020Nameplate capacity additionsShare online(nameplate capacity)UNPRECEDENTED LNG CAPACITY EXPANSION 45%COMPLETERoyal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018STRONG LNG FUNDAMENTALS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IN 201716Source:Shell interpr

59、etation of IHS Markit,Wood Mackenzie and Poten&Partners 2016 and Q4 2017 data-100102030Total importsNorth AsiaSouth Europe Rest of worldNorth WestEuropePrevious consensus forecast(as of late 2016)ActualsNet imports:2017 YoYNet imports:2017 YoYMillion tonnes(DES)-100102030Total exportsAustraliaUSAfri

60、caRest of worldPrevious consensus forecast(as of late 2016)ActualsMillion tonnes(DES)Net exports:2017 YoYNet exports:2017 YoYGLOBAL LNG MARKET CONTINUES TO DEFY EXPECTATIONSRoyal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018STRONG LNG FUNDAMENTALS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IN 201717Source:Shell interpretation o

61、f IHS Markit,Wood Mackenzie and Poten&Partners data 2016 and Q4 2017-40481216UKEgyptUAEIndonesiaArgentinaPuerto RicoLithuaniaUSNorwayColombiaSwedenFinlandBelgiumCanadaChileJapanJamaicaJordanDom RepIsraelSingaporeBrazilMaltaNetherlandsPolandMalaysiaKuwaitGreeceThailandMexicoIndiaPortugalItalyTaiwanPa

62、kistanFranceSpainTurkeyKoreaChinaPrevious consensus forecast(as of late 2016)ActualsNet imports:2017 YoYNet imports:2017 YoYMillion tonnes(DES)29 MT INCREASE IN LNG IMPORTS IN 2017Royal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018STRONG LNG FUNDAMENTALS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IN 2017180102030402010201120122

63、0132014201520162017LNG importsContracted LNG supplyChina LNG importsChina LNG importsMillion tonnesSource:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit Q4 2017,S&P Global Platts,ICE data and Wood Mackenzie Q4 2017 dataLNG ACCOMMODATES CHINA GROWTH AND SEASONAL DEMAND0%20%40%60%80%100%Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Ch

64、inaJapan,Korea,TaiwanRest of WorldOther EuropeNorth West EuropeDemand seasonalityDemand seasonalityShare of cargoes Royal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018STRONG LNG FUNDAMENTALS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IN 201719Source:Japanese customs data(Japan LNG import),S&P Global Platts(JKM),ICE(NBP,Brent,AR

65、A coal),NYMEX(Henry Hub)JKM as%BrentAsian spot priceAsian spot price0%5%10%15%20%25%JanFeb MarApr MayJunJulAugSepOctNov DecRange 2010-201520162017Global energy pricesGlobal energy prices$/MMBTU0510152025201020112012201320142015201620172018Energy price rangeHenry HubBrentNBPJKM(Platts)Japan LNG Impor

66、tCoal(ARA)SPOT PRICES CONTINUE TO REFLECT STRONG DEMAND FOR LNGRoyal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018STRONG LNG FUNDAMENTALS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IN 201720Source:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit Q4 2017,S&P Global Platts and the ICE dataSpot LNG supplySpot LNG supplyCargoes0%5%10%15%20%25%30

67、%02004006008001000120020102011201220132014201520162017AustraliaUSQatarOtherRe-exports%spot(RHS)Share spotSpot LNG deliveriesSpot LNG deliveriesCargoes0%5%10%15%20%25%30%02004006008001000120020102011201220132014201520162017JKTChinaSouth AsiaMiddle EastEuropeAmericas%spot(RHS)Share spotICE JKM LNG(Pla

68、tts)futuresICE JKM LNG(Platts)futuresCargoesLots(10,000 MMBTU)PHYSICAL AND FINANCIAL LIQUIDITY INCREASE AS MARKET EVOLVES09,00018,00027,00036,00045,00054,000030609012015018020102011201220132014201520162017Royal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018STRONG LNG FUNDAMENTALS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IN 201

69、7210%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%051015202530352008200920102011201220132014201520162017AmericasEuropeME&AfricaAsiaFSRU shareDeliveries to FSRUsDeliveries to FSRUsMTPAFSRU shareFSRU importing marketsFSRU importing marketsArgentinaBrazilChinaColombiaEgyptIndonesiaIsraelItalyJamaicaJordanKuwaitLithuaniaMalta Paki

70、stanTurkeyUAE ExistingExistingCroatiaCyprusEl SalvadorHong KongIvory CoastSouth AfricaSri LankaProposedProposedSource:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit Q4 2017 dataFAST,FLEXIBLE FSRUs CONTINUE TO INCREASE LNG IMPORTSFSRU FSRU picture to be addedpicture to be addedUnder Construction&DevelopmentUnder

71、 Construction&DevelopmentBahrainBangladeshChileGhanaRussiaPanamaFSRU moored off the port of Aqaba in JordanRoyal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018STRONG LNG FUNDAMENTALS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS IN 201722Diverse marine segments choosing LNGLNG bunkering network developing globallyLNG road fuelling

72、network developing in China(2000+stations)and EU(100+stations)DEMAND FOR LNG IN TRANSPORT GROWS GLOBALLYBargeBargeCar CarrierCar CarrierFerryFerryLNG Heavy Duty Truck LNG Heavy Duty Truck trucktruckContainer ShipContainer ShipCruise ShipCruise ShipTankerTankerLNG Fuel StationLNG Fuel StationRoyal Du

73、tch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018SUPPLY INVESTMENT REQUIRED TO MEET LONG-TERM DEMAND GROWTH2303SHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018Royal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018SUPPLY INVESTMENT REQUIRED TO MEET LONG-TERM DEMAND GROWTH24Source:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit,Wood Mackenzie,FGE,BNEF and Poten&Pa

74、rtners Q4 2017 dataInvestment in liquefaction capacityInvestment in liquefaction capacity0102030402008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017MTPA(FOB)LACK OF SUPPLY INVESTMENT RISKS FUTURE GLOBAL LNG MARKET GROWTHYear of investment decisionEmerging LNG supplyEmerging LNG supply-demand gapdeman

75、d gapMTPA(DES)010020030040050060020002005201020152020202520302035LNG supply in operationLNG supply under constructionDemand forecastsRoyal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018SUPPLY INVESTMENT REQUIRED TO MEET LONG-TERM DEMAND GROWTH25Source:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie Q4 2017 dataDriver

76、s of LNG demandDrivers of LNG demandMTPA(DES)010020030040050060020002005201020152020202520302035Other market driversDeclining domestic gas production0%20%40%60%80%100%20102017Traditional marketsLiquid or liberalising marketsLNG buyers domestic gas competitionLNG buyers domestic gas competitionShare

77、of LNG deliveriesLNG BUYERS AND THEIR NEEDS ARE CHANGINGRoyal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018SUPPLY INVESTMENT REQUIRED TO MEET LONG-TERM DEMAND GROWTH26Source:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit Q4 2017,Moodys and Fitch data0481216202008200920102011201220132014201520162017Average contract leng

78、thAverage contract lengthYears0.00.51.01.52.02.52008200920102011201220132014201520162017Average contract volumeAverage contract volumeMTPANew longNew long-term contract credit ratingterm contract credit rating0%20%40%60%80%100%2008200920102011201220132014201520162017A-ratedB-ratedNon-investment grad

79、eInvestment gradeLNG BUYERS SIGNING SHORTER AND SMALLER CONTRACTSShare of contract volumeRoyal Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018SUPPLY INVESTMENT REQUIRED TO MEET LONG-TERM DEMAND GROWTHTerm sales to importers by supplier typeTerm sales to importers by supplier type0%20%40%60%80%100%2008-2010201

80、5-2017Supply projectPortfolioTraderIntermediaries27LIQUEFACTION INVESTMENT NEEDED TO MEET DEMAND GROWTHSource:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit Q4 2017 dataShare of total contract volumeSTALEMATE CONSTRAINING GROWTH OF LNG SUPPLYFINANCIERSFINANCIERSLook to ensure revenue certaintyENDEND-USERSUSERSL

81、ook to avoid long-term contracts that are not in line with their competitive position LNG BUYERSLNG BUYERSSeek smaller,more flexible purchases to remain competitive in downstreammarketLNG PRODUCERSLNG PRODUCERSSeek long-term LNG sales to secure financing MISMATCH BETWEEN BUYER AND SELLER NEEDSRoyal

82、Dutch Shell plcSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 201828SUMMARYSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2018Methane Shirley ElisabethExternal environment creating more opportunities for gas and LNGExternal environment creating more opportunities for gas and LNG Multiple levels of policy support gas and LNG demand Gas supports renewable po

83、wer generation and provides cleaner non-power energy supplyStrong LNG fundamentals exceeded expectations in 2017Strong LNG fundamentals exceeded expectations in 2017 11%increase in LNG imports Physical and financial liquidity increases as market evolvesSupply investment required to meet longSupply investment required to meet long-term demand growthterm demand growth