《殼牌（Shell）：2019年液化天然氣（LNG）前景報告（英文版）（34頁）.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《殼牌（Shell）：2019年液化天然氣（LNG）前景報告（英文版）（34頁）.pdf（34頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、Royal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK2019Royal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2019The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities.In this presentation“Shell”,“Shell group”and“Royal Dutch Shell”are sometimes used for convenience where refer

2、ences are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general.Likewise,the words“we”,“us”and“our”are also used to refer to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them.These terms are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the part

3、icular entity or entities.Subsidiaries,“Shell subsidiaries”and“Shell companies”as used in this presentation refer to entities over which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control.Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred

4、to as“joint ventures”and“joint operations”,respectively.Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as“associates”.The term“Shell interest”is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in

5、an entity or unincorporated joint arrangement,after exclusion of all third-party interest.This presentation contains forward-looking statements(within the meaning of the U.S.Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995)concerning the financial condition,results of operations and businesses of Ro

6、yal Dutch Shell.All statements other than statements of historical fact are,or may be deemed to be,forward-looking statements.Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on managements current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and un

7、certainties that could cause actual results,performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements.Forward-looking statements include,among other things,statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing

8、 managements expectations,beliefs,estimates,forecasts,projections and assumptions.These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as“aim”,“ambition,anticipate,believe,could,estimate,expect,goals,intend,may,objectives,outlook,plan,probably,project,risks,“schedul

9、e”,seek,should,target,will and similar terms and phrases.There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation,including(withou

10、t limitation):(a)price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas;(b)changes in demand for Shells products;(c)currency fluctuations;(d)drilling and production results;(e)reserves estimates;(f)loss of market share and industry competition;(g)environmental and physical risks;(h)risks associated with th

11、e identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets,and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions;(i)the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions;(j)legislative,fiscal and regulatory developments including

12、regulatory measures addressing climate change;(k)economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions;(l)political risks,including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities,delays or advancements in the approval of projects

13、 and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs;and(m)changes in trading conditions.No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments.All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the

14、cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section.Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shells Form 20-F for the year ended December 31,2017(available at and www.sec.gov).

15、These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward-looking statements contained in this presentation and should be considered by the reader.Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation,February 25,2019.Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries und

16、ertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information,future events or other information.In light of these risks,results could differ materially from those stated,implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this prese

17、ntation.We may have used certain terms,such as resources,in this presentation that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC)strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC.U.S.Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F,File No 1-32575,ava

18、ilable on the SEC website www.sec.gov.2Cautionary NoteRoyal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 20193ContentGrowing recognition of the role of gas and LNG as the world tackles poor air quality and climate changeAsian LNG imports exceed expectations again in 2018 absorbing continued supply growthNear term s

19、upply growth expected to be absorbed by Europe and Asia continued need for investment in supply to meet long-term demand growth010203Royal Dutch ShellGrowing recognition of the role of gas and LNG as the world tackles poor air quality and climate change01Bunkering of worlds first LNG fuelled cruise

20、ship,AIDAnovaRoyal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 20195The energy challengeRoyal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2019Growing populationRisingdemandNeed for energy solutionsMitigating climate changeImproving air qualityAccording to United Nations estimates,the current world population of 7.6 billion is ex

21、pected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030,9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100.Nearly a billion people still live without electricity while another billion struggle with unreliable supplies of electricity.By 2070 the world is likely to be using at least 50%more energy than it does today as populat

22、ion grows and people seek to improve their quality of life.According to the International Energy Agency(IEA),renewable generation is expected to underpin the growth of electricity from 18%to 50%of energy supply by 2050.The remaining energy demand that is difficult to electrify will still require cle

23、aner solutions.The world currently emits 33 billion tonnes of energy-related CO2eachyear.To limit the rise in global temperature to 2C,the IEA has calculated that energy related CO2emissions need to fall to around 18 billion tonnes a year by 2040.The challenge is not just to reduce emissions,but to

24、do this while providing more reliable energy supplies.Updated World Health Organization(WHO)estimates reveal an alarming death toll of 7 million people every year caused by outdoor and household air pollution.According to WHO,global air pollution is linked to inefficient energy use in every sector o

25、f human activity including coal-fired power plants,industry,agriculture and transport.Royal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 20196Source:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie Q4 2018 data CAGR-Compound annual growth rateGlobal energy demand growth by fuel typeGlobal energy demand growth by fuel typeGas

26、 growth in the energy mix 2018Gas growth in the energy mix 2018-20352035BCMGas and renewables to play a critical role in meeting the energy challenge04,0008,00012,00016,00020,000Energy demand 1%CAGR41%30%15%6%4%4%0%10%20%30%40%GlobalNorth AmericaEuropeChinaIndiaGas share%in the energy mix20182035Roy

27、al Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 20197Source:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit and ICE Q4 2018 data and announced public policySouth Korean taxes to South Korean taxes to favour gas over coalfavour gas over coalTax$/MMBtuGovernment policies being implemented encouraging a cleaner energy mixChinese G

28、overnment Chinese Government policies targetpolicies targetBCMEU carbon pricing supported EU carbon pricing supported by policy changesby policy changes/CO2tn00.511.522013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019CoalGas4%7%10%0%3%6%9%12%0100200300400201020182020(Target)Gas demandGas share051015202530Jan-17Jun-

29、17Nov-17Apr-18Sep-18/CO2tnGas shareRoyal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 20198Source:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie Q4 2018 data Res&Comm Residential and CommercialGlobal gas demand growth by sector 2016 Global gas demand growth by sector 2016-20182018Global gas demand growth by sectorGlobal ga

30、s demand growth by sectorBCMGas demand growth not reliant on the power sector3,3003,4003,5003,6002016PowerNonpower2017PowerNonpower201801,0002,0003,0004,0005,0002018PowerIndustryRes&commTransport2035Gas demand 2%CAGR41%29%25%5%BCMRoyal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 20199Source:Shell interpretation EN

31、TSOG,REE,World Nuclear Association 2017 and 2018LNG complements wind and solar LNG complements wind and solar Spain(DecSpain(Dec-2017)2017)New power generation needed to replace ageing plantsNew power generation needed to replace ageing plantsNuclear capacity online by start dateNuclear capacity onl

32、ine by start dateLNG supplied(GWh/h)Capacity GWPower generation(GWh/h)Gas provides required flexibility for power generation010203040500102001-Dec31-Dec26-Dec21-Dec16-Dec11-Dec06-Dec051015202530351969197419791984198919941999200420102015North AmericaSouth AmericaAfricaEuropeRussiaAsia+40yrs old30-40y

33、rs oldWind Solar LNG supply(GWh/h)Royal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 201910Source:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit,Beijing Gas Group and US Embassy Beijing(US State Department)2018 dataAir quality improvements in BeijingAir quality improvements in Beijing176 MT CO176 MT CO2 2saving from Chinas sav

34、ing from Chinas air quality programme in 2018air quality programme in 2018Air quality ug/m3PM 2.5CO2MT/yrGas demand(BCM)Coal-to-gas switching in China achieves blue skies and reducesCO2emissions02468101214161820020406080100120140160180200Feb-09Jun-10Oct-11 Feb-13Jun-14Oct-15 Feb-17Jun-18ug/m3 PM2.5B

35、eijing gas demand-30-25-20-15-10-50Royal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 201911Source:Shell interpretation of National Grid,IHS Markit,Weather Channel 2018 data Meeting heating demand in UK in 2018Meeting heating demand in UK in 2018Meeting seasonal cooling demand in KuwaitMeeting seasonal cooling dema

36、nd in KuwaitLNG supplied(mcm/d)MTTotal gas demand(mcm/d)Average monthly temperature CLNG flexibility mitigates demand shocks and meets seasonal needs0501001502002503003504004500204060801001-Feb15-Feb1-Mar15-Mar29-Mar12-Apr26-AprLNG supplyTotal gas demand(RHS)05101520253035404500.20.40.62009 2010 201

37、1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018LNG importsTemperature CRoyal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 201912New countries choosing LNG for various benefitsNatural gas meets over half of total energy demandDeclining domestic gas productionLNG meeting existing and new gas demandReplacing oil-fired power gene

38、rationComplement renewable power generationStrategic location of Panama Canal offers opportunities for LNG bunkeringReplacing oil-fired power generationInnovative small-scale LNG solutionIncreases diversity of supplySource:Shell interpretation of Woodmac Q4 2018 DataBANGLADESHPANAMAGIBRALTAR Royal D

39、utch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 201913China LNG fuelled heavyChina LNG fuelled heavy-duty transportduty transportEurope moving to LNG fuelled heavyEurope moving to LNG fuelled heavy-duty transportduty transportNumber of LNG trucks and buses in 1000 Number of LNG trucksEconomic and environmental benefits

40、 increasing the use of LNG in road transport2004002012201320142015201620172018LNG HD trucksLNG buses06.7 MT of LNG consumed in China for road transport in 20182,552 LNG fuel stations in 2018 153240005,5000200040006000201620172018Co-financed by EU,BioLNGEuroNet is building 39 LNG stations,2000 LNG tr

41、ucks and a BioLNG production plant 280,000 LNG trucks expected by 2030155 LNG fuel stations in 2018Source:Shell analysis of Woodmac,SCI,and NGVA data Royal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 201914Source:Shell interpretation of Wood Mackenzie Q4 2018 dataGlobal gas supply by sourceGlobal gas supply by sou

42、rceBCMLNG continues to be the fastest-growing gas supply sourceLNG imports by regionLNG imports by regionBCMLNG imports in AsiaLNG imports in AsiaBCM01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0002018DomesticproductionPipelineimportsLNGimports203562%4%34%Gas demand 2%CAGR02004006008001,0002018AsiaEurope AmericasMid-East

43、&Africa2035LNG demand 4%CAGR59%22%10%9%01202403604806002018ChinaJKTSouthAsiaSouthEast Asia2035Asia LNG demand 3%CAGR32%-8%35%41%Royal Dutch ShellAsian LNG imports exceed expectations again in 2018 absorbing continued supply growth02Russias first LNG plant on SakhalinRoyal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOO

44、K 201916Source:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit Q4 2018 dataLNG trade volumeLNG trade volumeLNG liquefaction capacity additionsLNG liquefaction capacity additionsMTPA(DES)MT(DES)Share onlineMore than 70%of the current wave of LNG capacity additions online3190100200300400200520072009201120132015201

45、720190%20%40%60%80%100%010203040502015201620172018201920202021Capacity additions(2018 forecast)Capacity additions(actual/2019 forecast)Share online(nameplate capacity)Royal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 201917Source:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit,Wood Mackenzie and Poten&Partners 2017 and Q4 2018

46、 dataYoY:Year on YearNet exports YoYNet exports YoYNet imports YoYNet imports YoYMT(DES)MT(DES)Asian LNG demand continues to exceed expectations-100102030TotalTotalAustraliaUSARussiaRest ofworld20172018Previous forecast(consensus)Actuals-100102030TotalTotalNorth Asia NWEuropeS EuropeRest ofworld2017

47、2018Previous forecast(consensus)ActualsRoyal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 201918Source:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit,Wood Mackenzie and Poten&Partners 2017 and Q4 2018 dataNet imports:2018 YoYNet imports:2018 YoYMT(DES)LNG imports increased by 27 MT in 2018-40481216EgyptUAESpainJordanJapanArgen

48、tinaMalaysiaGreeceLithuaniaChileNorwayKuwaitUSAFinlandSwedenJamaicaIsraelDom RepItalyCanadaPortugalPanamaColombiaMaltaTaiwanMexicoPuerto RicoUKIndonesiaBrazilTurkeySingaporeBangladeshPolandFranceThailandNetherlandsBelgiumIndiaPakistanSouth KoreaChinaPrevious forecast(consensus)ActualsRoyal Dutch She

49、llSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 201919Source:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit Q4 2018 dataChina energy demand growth by fuelChina energy demand growth by fuelBCMLNG imports continued to enable China to meet its growing need for cleaner energyChina gas demand growth by sectorChina gas demand growth by sectorBC

50、MChina gas supply growth by sourceChina gas supply growth by sourceBCM3,5003,5503,6003,6503,70019%24%35%6%16%20022024026028011%44%38%20022024026028026%21%7%53%Royal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 201920Source:Shell interpretation of PPAC and PNGRB Q4 2018 dataIndia gas demand growth by sectorIndia gas

51、 demand growth by sectorBCMLNG provides energy security for IndiaIndia gas supply growth by sourceIndia gas supply growth by sourceBCMIndia city gas distribution areasIndia city gas distribution areasNumber of geographical areas3035404550552017PowerIndustryRes&comm20183035404550552017DomesticLNGImpo

52、rts2018050100150200250ExistingUnderconstructionAwarded in2018To beawarded in2019Royal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 201921Source:Shell interpretation of DNV-GL&Woodmac*Other vessels includes fishing vessels,dredgers,etc.Projections for LNG in MarineProjections for LNG in MarineMTPAMarine LNG poised f

53、or growth010203040202020252030203501020304050Bulk carriersCar carriersCar passenger ferriesContainer shipsCrude oil tankersCruise shipsMulti-gas tankersGeneral cargo shipsOffshore supply shipsOil/Chemical tankersOther vessels*RoPaxRo-Ro cargo shipsTugsIn operationOn orderQUARTER 1Mitsui OSK order LN

54、G bunker barge to serve Total-CMA-CGM dealWorlds first LNG-fuelled bulk carrier charter deliveredCarnival orders 9thLNG fuelled Cruise shipQUARTER 4Crowley takes delivery of second LNG-powered container/roll on-roll off(ConRo)shipBunkering of the first LNG fuelled Aframaxtanker by Shell CardissaH-Li

55、ne Shipping ordered two LNG fuelled bulk carriersWorlds first LNG powered cruise ship sets sailKairos,the 7,500 m bunker vessel started operationsAdnoc and Inpex sign agreement to explore LNG bunkering opportunities in UAEPublic Gas Corp of Greece signed a grant agreement with EU for construction of

56、 the first LNG bunkering vesselQUARTER 2Shell agrees to charter two LNG poweredtankers from AETMPA awards grants for two LNG bunker barges for SingaporeQUARTER 3First Japanese LNG bunker vessel orderedHapag Lloyd announces it will convert a container vessel to operate on LNG20182018LNG fuelled vesse

57、lsLNG fuelled vesselsRoyal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 201922Source:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit Q4 2018 dataAverage contract lengthAverage contract lengthTotal LNG contract volumes by seller typeTotal LNG contract volumes by seller typeYears MTResurgence of longer term contracts supports new

58、 supply projects 0481216202008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018020040060080010002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018PortfolioProjectRoyal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 201923Source:Shell interpretation of Japanese customs data(Japan LNG import),S&P Global Platts(JKM

59、),ICE(NBP,Brent,ARA coal),NYMEX(Henry Hub)Global Energy pricesGlobal Energy pricesAsian spot priceAsian spot price$/MMBtuJKM as%BrentSpot prices remained robust0510152025201020112012201320142015201620172018Energy price rangeHenry HubBrentNBPJKM(Platts)JLCCoal(ARA)0%5%10%15%20%25%JanFeb MarAprMayJunJ

60、ulAugSepOctNovDecRange 2012-201720172018Royal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 201924Source:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit Q4 2018,S&P Global Platts and the ICE dataSpot LNG SupplySpot LNG SupplyCargoesSpot market gains momentum with volume growthShare spotSpot LNG deliveriesSpot LNG deliveriesCargo

61、esShare spotICE JKM LNG(Platts)futuresICE JKM LNG(Platts)futuresCargoes1000 Lots0%10%20%30%040080012001600201020112012201320142015201620172018AustraliaUSAQatarOtherRe-exports%spot0%10%20%30%040080012001600201020112012201320142015201620172018JKTChinaSouth AsiaMiddle EastEuropeAmericas%spot03060901201

62、501800100200300400500600201020112012201320142015201620172018Royal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 201925Source:Shell interpretation of S&P Global Platts data and IHS Markit Q4 2018 dataJKM price versus freight rateJKM price versus freight rateLNG demand growth by regionLNG demand growth by region$/MMBT

63、uMTK$/DayAn evolving global LNG market0501001502000510152020102012201420162018JKM priceFreight(RHS)-5051015Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4201620172018AsiaEuropeSouth AmericaMiddle EastRoyal Dutch ShellNear term supply growth expected to be absorbed by Europe and Asia continued need for investment in supply

64、 to meet long-term demand growth03Shell Cardissa fuelling Gagarin Prospect,the worlds first crude oil tanker to be powered by LNGRoyal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 201927Source:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit,Wood Mackenzie,Poten&Partners Q4 2018 dataLNG supply growth range by countryLNG supply g

65、rowth range by countryLNG demand growth range by regionLNG demand growth range by regionMTPAMTPANew supply expected to be absorbed by Asia as well as Europein 2019-505101520253035AustraliaUSARussiaRest of world-505101520253035AsiaEuropeAmericasMiddle East&AfricaRoyal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 201

66、928Source:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit Q4 2018 dataEurope gas supply outlookEurope gas supply outlookGas supply by source in 2019Gas supply by source in 2019BCMABCMAEurope needs more imports to offset declining domestic gas production01002003004005006002010201520202025Domestic productionNorway

67、 pipelineAlgeria pipelineOther pipelineRussian pipelineLNG4004505005506002018DomesticproductionAlgeriapipelineOtherpipelineRussianpipelineLNG2019Royal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 201929Source:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit Q4 2018 dataCoal and gasCoal and gas-fired generation capacity and fired

68、 generation capacity and utilisationutilisationEuropean power switching economicsEuropean power switching economicsGW$/MMbtu/tn CO2European power sector is also capable of absorbing more LNG 0102030036912Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Range of coal-to-gas switchingTTF Gas$/MMBTUARA Coal$/

69、MMBTUEuropean carbon price(RHS)0%20%40%60%80%100%0501001502002502010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Coal CapacityGas CapacityCoal UtilizationGas UtilizationRoyal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 201930Source:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit and Wood Mackenzie Q4 2018 data2018 Regasification ca

70、pacity 2018 Regasification capacity and and utilisationutilisationAsia has significant potential to take more LNG volumes2018 Gas2018 Gas-fired power generation fired power generation capacity and capacity and utilisationutilisation2018 Coal2018 Coal-fired power generation fired power generation cap

71、acity and capacity and utilisationutilisation0%20%40%60%80%100%Unutilised CapacityUtilised CapacityHighest utilisation(past 10yrs)0%20%40%60%80%100%Unutilised CapacityUtilised CapacityHighest utilisation(past 10yrs)0%20%40%60%80%100%Unutilised CapacityUtilised CapacityLowest utilisation(past 10yrs)M

72、T177 101712719109873GW87368126163315201312GW4342996 235205229110.2Royal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 201931Source:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit Q4 2018 dataChina China RegasRegas capacity additionscapacity additionsIndia India RegasRegas capacity additionscapacity additionsMTMTChina and India c

73、an double import infrastructure in 5 years02040608010012014016020182019202020212022ExistingUnder constructionProposed01020304050607020182019202020212022ExistingUnder constructionProposedRoyal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 201932Source:Shell interpretation of IHS Markit,Wood Mackenzie,FGE and Poten&Pa

74、rtners Q4 2018 dataEmerging LNG supplyEmerging LNG supply-demand gapdemand gapInvestment in liquefaction capacityInvestment in liquefaction capacityMTPAMTSupply investment still needed to meet continued LNG demand growth0100200300400500600700200020052010201520202025203020352018 outlook rangeLNG supp

75、ly in operationLNG supply under constructionDemand forecast range010203040201020122014201620182020*2022*Year of investment decision*Assumption-5 years FID to be onstreamFIDs needed for high demandFIDs needed for low demandRoyal Dutch ShellSHELL LNG OUTLOOK 201933SummarySHELL LNG OUTLOOK 2019Royal Du

76、tch ShellGrowing recognition of the role of gas and LNG as the world tackles poor air quality and climate changeGas to supply the largest share of energy demand growth,supplying over 40%of additional demand by 2035Coal-to-gas switching led to 78%improvement in Beijing winter air quality over the las

77、t five yearsAsian LNG imports exceed expectations again in 2018 absorbing continued supply growthChina became the worlds largest gas importer,with LNG imports doubling over two yearsJKM futures trading volume increased ten-fold since 2016Near term supply growth expected to be absorbed by Europe and Asia continued need for investment in supply to meet long-term demand growth35 MT additional supply expected in 20192018 saw final investment decisions on 21 MT of new capacity compared to a total of 7 MT in the last two years combinedRoyal Dutch Shell