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1、EV Charger Deployment OptimizationAn Analysis of U.S.State-level Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment Demand Forecast and Supporting Infrastructure ConsiderationsAUGUST 2022S&P Global Mobility Prepared for and commissioned by The Fuels I About S&P Global MobilityAt S&P Global Mobility,we provide invalu

2、able insights derived from unmatched automotive data,enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction.Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses,reach the right consumers,and shape the future of mobility.We open the door to automotive innovation,revealing the

3、 buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global(NYSE:SPGI).S&P Global is the worlds foremost provider of credit ratings,benchmarks,analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital,commodity and autom

4、otive markets.With every one of our offerings,we help many of the worlds leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow,today.For more information,visit S&P Global Mobility data and information referenced herein(the S&P Global Mobility Materials”)are the copyrigh

5、ted property and of S&P Global.and its subsidiaries and represent data,research,or opinions of S&P Global Mobility and are not representations of fact.The information and opinions expressed in the S&P Global Mobility Materials are subject to change without notice and S&P Global Mobility has no duty

6、or responsibility to update the S&P Global Mobility Materials.Moreover,while the S&P Global Mobility Materials reproduced herein are from sources considered reliable,the accuracy and completeness thereof are not warranted.S&P Global Mobility makes no representation or warranty of any kind,express or

7、 implied,regarding the contents or data herein.Nothing in this document constitutes or is intended to constitute financial advice in any way whatsoever.Data and information shall not be relied upon for any investment activities.2022 Fuels Institute Disclaimer:The opinions and views expressed herein

8、do not necessarily state or reflect those of the individuals on the Fuels Institute Board of Directors and the Fuels Institute Board of Advisors or any contributing organization to the Fuels Institute.The Fuels Institute makes no warranty,express or implied,nor does it assume any legal liability or

9、responsibility for the use of the report or any product or process described in these materials.1FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECASTSTUDY OBJECTIVES.02METHODOLOGY.03EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.05LITERATURE REVIEW KEY FINDINGS.07 Ratio of EVs to EVSE.07

10、EVSE Business&Development Considerations.08 Utility&Grid Impacts.10 Consumer Perspectives.13US HISTORICAL EV AND EVSE MARKET REPORT.14 Plug-In Vehicles in Operation.15 Plug-In New Vehicle Registrations.17 EV Consumer Purchase Trends.20 Established Public EVSE.22 EV Range vs.Charging Time Trends.23US

11、 NATIONAL EVSE FORECASTING.25US STATE-LEVEL EV FORECASTING.28 Plug-In New Vehicle Sales Forecast.28 Electric Vehicles(EV)in Operation Forecast.29US STATE-LEVEL EVSE FORECASTING.30 Prioritization of EVSE Expansion by State.31 Prioritization of EVSE Expansion within California.37 Ideal Forecast EV to

12、EVSE Ratios in 2030.38SELECT METRO-LEVEL EVSE FORECASTING.41 Case Study:A Charging Desert in Detroit,MI.42 Case Study:Supporting Growth in Dallas,TX.47 Case Study:Equitable Growth in Portland,OR.50SUMMARY&STUDY CONCLUSIONS.53BIBLIOGRAPHY.56Contents2In summer 2021,the Fuels Institute commissioned S&P

13、 Global Mobility to conduct a project evaluating the electric vehicle(EV)charging infrastructure deployment forecast in the U.S.While nationwide electric vehicle supply equipment(EVSE)forecasts are useful,a deeper state-level(and even local-level)analysis is required to understand the gravity of the

14、 challenge ahead of the industry and government to deploy a sustainable and equitable public EV charging network.The underlying issue is timing and efficiency of EVSE deployment.As consumers begin to purchase EVs in greater volumes,the need for in-market charging facilities will increase.There are m

15、any models projecting how many chargers will be needed and where,yet there remains uncertainty among many stakeholders regarding which will be the most effective deployment strategies.Furthermore,a one-size-fits-all deployment strategy will not satisfy all needs or economic considerations.Determinin

16、g the optimum charging solutions for specific use cases will help instill confidence in end users while providing businesses investing in charger deployment greater confidence in their potential return on investment(ROI).This study investigates how many charging stations and outlets may be required

17、at various stages of EV market development in different regions to satisfy actual demand and to instill within end users the confidence that availability will be sufficient.In addition,the study aims to better understand what types of chargers(Level 2 and DC fast chargers of varying capacity)will be

18、 required at different locations to optimize deployment to satisfy consumer needs while reducing overall infrastructure costs and accelerating the business case for charger installation.STUDY OBJECTIVESFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECASTFUELS

19、INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST3S&P Global Mobilitys approach to the micro-level EVSE forecasting involved many different types of data,inputted into a model that incorporates forecasting,indexing,and geo-location insights to ascertain the optim

20、al volume,variety,and timing for EVSE across the U.S.More specifically,the S&P Global Mobility model leveraged the data inputs shown in Figure 1-A and 1-B.METHODOLOGYFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECASTFIGURE 1-A:S&P GLOBAL MOBILITY ELECTRIC VE

21、HICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT FORECAST MODEL INPUTSFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECASTSCRUBBERSReports estimate that the number of scrubbers by 2020 will be anywhere from 3%to 15%of marine vessels.Current estimates of switch volumes from high sulfur

22、fuel to LNG in 2020 are anywhere between 1.9%and 7%.SLOW STEAM10%reduction in speed drops fuel consump-tion by 25%;and reducing speed by a few knots can reduce fuel consump-tion between 25%and 50%.25%LNG1.9%-7%3%-15%EV VEHICLES IN OPERATIONEXSISTINGLEVEL 2&3 PUBLICEVSEMOBILITY PATTERNS&PARKING HEAT

23、MAPSLOCALIZED INCENTIVES OR REGULATIONSDEMOGRAPHICAREA PROFILEHOUSINGMIXVEHICLE MILES TRAVELED(VMT)FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST4The state EVSE forecast and associated investment prioritization was developed at a census tract(CT)level wi

24、th the above data inputs shown in Figure 1.The S&P Global Mobility national public EVSE infrastructure forecast was used as a starting point for determining top-line EVSE volumes and EV:EVSE ratios for Level 2(AC)and Level 3(DC)charging.These baseline ratios were applied to the light consumer EV veh

25、icles in operation(VIO)forecast,which was calculated at a CT level using the S&P Global Mobility new vehicle sales forecast,historical VIO,and consumer demographics to predict future EV VIO at a granular level.The above factors of vehicle miles traveled,housing type mix,and parking hotspots were sub

26、sequently implemented down to the CT level to align the number and locations of public EVSE infrastructure in accordance with local market conditions.For the purposes of this report,S&P Global Mobility defines EV as battery electric vehicles(BEV)and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles(PHEV).Where appro

27、priate,the two powertrain system designs are broken out in the report.We do not include mild-hybrid electric vehicles,hybrid electric vehicles,or fuel cell electric vehicles into our analysis for this report.This report also references three different count categories for EVSE.Charging locations rep

28、resent the location on the map wherein a single or multiple charging station(s)are installed.Charging stations represent the individual stack installed in the ground,on the wall,or in a similar placement with one or more charging outlets.A charging outlet is the plug itself that connects to the EV o

29、r outlet to plug in to a user-owned charging cable.Charging stations is the count-type most often used throughout the report.FIGURE 1-B:S&P GLOBAL MOBILITYS DATA INPUTS FOR MICRO-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECASTINGDATA CATEGORYDATA TYPESOURCE AND DATECurrent U.S.market electri

30、c vehicles in operationUnit volumesS&P Global Mobility (July 2021)Forecasted U.S.market electric vehicles in operation(VIO)Unit volumesS&P Global Mobility(based on the second half 2020 EV sales forecast)Current U.S.market Level 2 and 3 electric vehicle supply equipment infrastructureStation and port

31、 types,locations,and volumesPlugShare (September 2021)Consumer mobility patterns vehicle miles traveledIndexed travel metricsU.S.Dept.of Transportation (July 2021)Consumer mobility patterns parking hotspotsDaytime parking hotspotsMBI GmbH (2021)Demographic area consumer profilesIndexed data and rati

32、osMBI GmbH(2021)Localized housing mixIndexed data and ratiosClaritas PopFacts (2021)Localized incentive and regulatory frame-workState-level considerationsS&P Global Mobility (2021)SCRUBBERSReports estimate that the number of scrubbers by 2020 will be anywhere from 3%to 15%of marine vessels.Current

33、estimates of switch volumes from high sulfur fuel to LNG in 2020 are anywhere between 1.9%and 7%.SLOW STEAM10%reduction in speed drops fuel consump-tion by 25%;and reducing speed by a few knots can reduce fuel consump-tion between 25%and 50%.25%LNG1.9%-7%3%-15%EV VEHICLES IN OPERATIONEXSISTINGLEVEL

34、2&3 PUBLICEVSEMOBILITY PATTERNS&PARKING HEAT MAPSLOCALIZED INCENTIVES OR REGULATORSDEMOGRAPHICAREA PROFILEHOUSINGMIXVEHICLE MILES TRAVELED(VMT)5FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECASTIn the U.S.,there were 1.87 million EVs(plug-in hybrid and batte

35、ry-powered)in operation as of July 2021.This follows over 300,000 new EVs registered per year from 2018 to 2021.California is home to 40.9%of all EVs and PHEVs in the U.S.and the top 15 states are home to 81.7%of EVs registered in the U.S.as of July 2021.Washington,D.C.,is treated as a state in this

36、 report.The year 2020 was challenging for many industries,and the automotive sector was no exception.Despite this,several states,including Florida,New Jersey,Pennsylvania,and Texas,showed strong growth in EVs last year.California new registrations have declined year-over-year from 2018 to 2020,but s

37、trong 20062021 numbers point to a reversal of the trend this year for the state,and the nation.By 2030,California is expected to contribute 17.4%of new plug-in EV registrations with the top 15 states contributing a combined 73.4%(versus 38%and 81%in 20062021,respectively).New EV registrations per ye

38、ar are expected to hit 1.75 million in 2025 and 2.75 million by 2030.By this 2030 timeframe,S&P Global Mobility estimates EVs will make up 5.9%of the U.S.registered vehicles.According to S&P Global Mobility data,while EVs were often purchased as additions to the garage historically,the first quarter

39、 of 2021 marked the first in which greater than 25%of BEVs where purchased as a replacement,likely making it the primary vehicle.The top 15 states currently make up approximately 73%of the 115,197 public EVSE stations nationally.California is home to 28%of all charging locations and 30%of charging s

40、tations in the U.S.,although only 19%of Tesla-networked stations are found in California.The highest EV-to-EVSE ratios are visible along the West Coast as well as Illinois,New Jersey,and Texas.According to several internationally recognized industry and academic sources,a ratio of greater than 10 to

41、 15 vehicles to public charging stations represents a congested infrastructure(Hall,Dale and Nic Lutsey,2017).Nationally,there are 19.7 vehicles for every one charging station.S&P Global Mobility forecasts more than 18 million EVs to be on the road in 2030 in the U.S.To support this volume of vehicl

42、es,1.8 million charging stations will be required by that same 2030 milestone.As much as 95%could be Level 2 AC chargers,built alongside points of interest(POIs)with the intent of servicing many vehicles concurrently.Level 3 DC fast charge(DCFC)EVSE should then be deployed strategically to support i

43、nstances where fast charging and high throughput is required.The U.S.state prioritization in this report can help planners and investors understand the level of EVSE development that is required to support the growth and adoption of plug-in EVs in each state.Figure 2 illustrates how all 50 states ar

44、e categorized.The quadrant dividing line for the X-axis(electric vehicles in operation)is growth at 20 times or more,whereas the Y-axis(required charging to meet demand)is a weighted average between AC and DC charging needs,at or above 60,000 or 3,000 public chargers,respectively.EXECUTIVE SUMMARYFU

45、ELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST6Required charging to meet demandElectric vehicles(EV)in operation(VIO)growth 2021-2030#2 PrioritySUPPORT VOLUME#1 PriorityCONTINUED GROWTH#4 PrioritySUPPORT GROWTH#3 PriorityCONTINUED GROWTHCaliforniaTexasFlor

46、idaNew YorkNew JerseyAlabamaArkansasKentuckyLouisianaMississippiNorth DakotaOklahomaSouth DakotaWest VirginiaWyomingAlaskaArizonaColoradoConnecticutDelawareGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIowaKansasMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew MexicoNorth Carolin

47、aOhioOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaTennesseeUtahVermontVirginiaWashingtonWashington DCWisconsinHIGHHIGHLOWCalifornia stands alone as the top priority simply due to the huge volume expectations.The infrastructure in California is already among the densest in the nation,but the forecaste

48、d continuous growth of EVs in the state will need commensurate continued growth in the charging infrastructure.The next priority 2 level is dominated by the high-population states of Florida,New Jersey,New York,and Texas.These states will have lower growth rates of EV VIO compared to California,yet

49、due to sheer population size,a smaller increase in EV VIO will have a profound effect on the demands for a public charging network.Priority 3 states are lower volume in 2030 and have minimal EV adoption today but stand to see astronomical percentage growth rates in EV VIO over 20212030.Given the min

50、imal adoption today,the current infrastructure is lacking,thus creating a need for additional EVSE to support the growth these states will see.Additionally,Priority 3 states,especially in the South,will provide crucial charging corridor support for highway transportation between states with higher E

51、V VIO(such as Florida and Texas).So,building out infrastructure in Priority 3 states will not only benefit the local growth in EV VIO but also for those passing through.Finally,Priority 4 states are those where expected volume is low to moderate but the growth rate is not astronomically higher than

52、the national average.Some of these states already have strong adoption of EVs.As such,the growth in EV VIO should be met with equally steady growth in EVSE.Fortunately,this accounts for most states,including many of those with higher populations(such as Illinois,Pennsylvania,and Ohio).Fundamentally,

53、deployment happens on the local and municipal level,and this report introduces these details.However,the state-level analysis is an important and vital step to organizing the EVSE infrastructure strategies from a federal to state and,ultimately,local level of deployment.FIGURE 2:U.S.STATE-LEVEL ELEC

54、TRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT GROWTH PRIORITIZATIONFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECASTnext priority level is dominated by the high-population states of Florida,New Jersey,New York,and Texas.These states will have lower growth rates of EV VIO c

55、ompared to California,yet due to sheer population size,a smaller increase in EV VIO will have a profound effect on the demands for a public charging network.FIGURE 1:U.S.STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT GROWTH PRIORITIZATION Priority 3 states are lower volume in 2030 and have minimal EV

56、 adoption today but stand to see astronomical percentage growth rates in EV VIO over 20212030.Given the minimal adoption today,the current infrastructure is lacking,thus creating a need for additional EVSE to support the growth these states will see.Additionally,Priority 3 states,especially in the S

57、outh,will provide crucial charging corridor support for highway transportation between states with higher EV VIO(such as Florida and Texas).So,building out infrastructure in Priority 3 states will not only benefit the local growth in EV VIO but also for those passing through.Finally,Priority 4 state

58、s are those where expected volume is low to moderate but the growth rate is not astronomically higher than the national average.Some of these states already have strong adoption of EVs.As such,the growth in EV VIO should be met with equally steady growth in EVSE.Fortunately,this accounts for most st

59、ates,including many of those with higher populations(such as Illinois,Pennsylvania,and Ohio).Fundamentally,deployment happens on the local and municipal level,and this report introduces these details.However,the state-level analysis is an important and vital step to organizing the EVSE infrastructur

60、e strategies from a federal to state and,ultimately,local level of deployment.7FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECASTLITERATURE REVIEWKey Findings To provide a baseline for this study,S&P Global Mobility began with a thorough review of published

61、works on EVSE planning and development topics.1 Academic-,industry-,and utility-sourced insights were gathered to build a foundation for both the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the study.A ratio of 10 to 15 EVs to one charging station will provide a sustainable infrastructure when the hous

62、ing mix largely offers home-charging access,as it does in the U.S.The financial considerations for developing EVSE infrastructure can include land acquisition,hardware costs,installation labor,permitting and zoning fees,among other expenses.Service providers must also structure usage fees that cover

63、 these costs while meeting an acceptable price point for the end consumer.Three of the top five major factors that deter consumers from buying a hybrid or an EV are related to charging.simply put,the coordination of all the stakeholders creates the biggest barrier to bringing EV charging to the mark

64、et,because SO SO many players are involved from banks,to cities,to utilities,to charging station network operators,to engineers,to electricians,and more.1 Mobilyze.ai,Access to Electric Vehicle Charging in the United States,eds.D.Keith,J.Long,&B.Gaiarin,August 2021,https:/www.mobilyze.ai/research-re

65、port-download.2 Mobilyze.ai,Access to Electric Vehicle Charging in the United States,eds.D.Keith,J.Long,&B.Gaiarin,August 2021,https:/www.mobilyze.ai/research-report-download.3 Dale Hall and Nic Lutsey,Emerging Best Practices for Electric Vehicle Infrastructure(International Council on Clean Transpo

66、rtation,October 2017),https:/theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/EV-charging-best-practices_ICCT-white-paper_04102017_vF.pdf.RATIO OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES TO ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENTThe first and most important topic to preview pertained to the ratio of EVs to charging stations becaus

67、e it establishes the level of congestion for the EVSE infrastructure.According to a research report published in August 2021 by Mobilyze.ai and the Toyota Mobility Foundation,international benchmarks suggest one public charging station is needed for every 10 to 15 EVs,even when the housing mix enabl

68、es easy access to home charging.2 This ratio varies widely,especially when focusing on only AC or DC public charging.However,in international markets,the housing mix can also vary widely,requiring a different ratio.According to a report from October 2017 from the International Council for Clean Tran

69、sportation,some metro areas in California can have upward of 25 to 30 EVs per charger where the housing mix supports more home charging versus parts of Europe and China where charger ratios are much lower with no more than three to five EVs per public charging station on average.3 For the U.S.in gen

70、eralS&P Global Mobility presumed a ratio of one EVSE to 1015 EVs to analyze the nation on a state level.This ratio assumption was used as a baseline to develop insights on where todays EVSE infrastructure is congested and where it is under-utilized.FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC

71、 VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECASTFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST8ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT BUSINESS AND DEVELOPMENT CONSIDERATIONSInitial investment and ROI highlight much of the concern for business owners,retail centers,p

72、arking facilities,and other stakeholders when considering the installation of either Level 2 or Level 3 DCFCs.Questions of funding,tax credits or grants,and permitting all factor into the equation for landowners and developers.4 Eaton,Education&Cooperation Will Deliver eMobility Expansion,February 2

73、021,prepared by HIS Markit,https:/ to a whitepaper from Eaton in February 2021,the factors vary widely from housing stock and throughput to subsidized charging fees and installation costs.4 Figure 3 visualizes some of the various advantages and disadvantages of each type.Putting AC Level 2 stations

74、in the ground is generally less expensive to purchase,install and operate than DCFC stations since high voltage lines are not as easily accessible around certain public parking facilities,such as older parking garages,retail complexes,and existing workplace parking lots.FasterChargingSlowerFewerUnit

75、s needed per site for same throughoutMoreSmallerSite footprint neededLargerLargerIndividual station footprint neededSmallerMoreComplicated site electrical install processLessMultiple DCRequired connector stadardOne ACNeutralCommonly drives indirect revenues from chargingNeutralDC FAST CHARGINGAC CHA

76、RGINGCHARGING CONSIDERATIONS26.629.232.835.839.441.439.941.241.32030 PLUG-IN VIO FORECAST BY STATESource:S&P Global MobilityFIGURE 3:PUBLIC CHARGING CONSIDERATIONSThe difference here is a site is equivalent to a charging location-you need more space with multiple AC chargers than you need with DC ch

77、argers to serve the same number of vehicles,because of throughput.However,the individual station footprint is smaller with AC charging,so they dont take up as much individual space,versus a large DC fast charging cabinet.FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DE

78、MAND FORECAST9Furthermore,the AC stations will generally offer the end user a less expensive charge since the current is delivered at a slower rate.This then provides the station host with a chance to maximize other revenue opportunities for the duration of charging,which may include more time in th

79、e hosts store or restaurant or simply a competitive edge for an urban parking facility.The negatives for AC stations include the need for a larger footprint with more physical stations and outlets per site to meet demand,which can become an issue for smaller EV charging sites where fewer vehicle par

80、king spots are available.It is also less likely for AC units to generate direct charging revenues,and they obviously provide a slower charge to the end user.AC stations are more likely to be free or very inexpensive to the end user,depending on level and potential incentives from other sources.In co

81、ntrast,DCFC offers end users a“rapid”charging experience,especially compared to users experiences with home charging.Strategically placed DCFCs can help make or break the usability of EVs for lengthy commutes or road trips.DCFCs will match more of the traditional vehicle fueling user-experience mode

82、l,wherein the user must go to a station to refuel.In particular areas and scenarios,this is the optimal solution.Another aspect to consider is the tariffs utilities assess at each charging station and how this impacts the ultimate cost to the end-user.This can vary based on location,charger power le

83、vels,and time-of-day,all of which impact how a charging station operators profitability may be calculated.Given these considerations,and the overall benefits to AC charging solutions,S&P Global Mobility used a prioritization toward AC charging in its forecast modeling,especially in urban markets whe

84、re space is in limited supply and driving distances are shorter overall.DCFC makes a bigger impact along highway5“Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Master Plan(EVMP),”Florida Department of Transportation,April 2021,https:/www.fdot.gov/planning/fto/ev/default.interchanges and in suburban and rural area

85、s where the opposite factors are at play:longer driving distances and more real estate to work with.Regardless of location or charger type,the specific site plan details can actually provide the biggest impediment toward EVSE deployment,as utilities,landowners,operators,and other stakeholders will w

86、eigh in on each specific installation.With this in mind,officials with the Florida Department of Transportation put together a comprehensive master plan for the adoption of EVs and infrastructure in the state.Their report,updated in April 2021 from an earlier version,identified power supplies,space

87、requirements,and future EV and EVSE sales and installations as the key considerations that every location plan should have prior to start.Specifically,the space requirements highlighted how electrical utilities require easements for power supplies and that transformers often need three feet of space

88、 available to the sides and rear for fire safety,and up to 10 feet in front for operational safety.5The plan goes on to list requirements from the Americans with Disabilities Act(ADA)for users with accessibility issues as well as ensuring the proper options for vehicle queue management,in the event

89、of a high-demand scenario with EVs waiting to charge.FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST10UTILITY AND GRID IMPACTSOne of the biggest challenges to EVSE deployment is the stakeholder alignment.Many of the articles and reports we reviewed highli

90、ghted aspects of thisfrom utility involvement on rate plans and equipment rebates to the impact on the grid and technologies to reduce grid strain.In a Fuels Institute report from August 2021,the utilities and other Authority Having Jurisdictions(AHJs)can either empower or ensnare developers trying

91、to get EVSE in the ground.Utilities may engage by developing make-ready infrastructure,providing documentation in interconnect and inspection processes,organizing development zones with other utilities,and providing aid in obtaining environmental credits after installation is complete.6 6 Fuels Inst

92、itute,Installing and Operating Public Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure,August 6,2021,https:/www.fuelsinstitute.org/Research/Reports/Installing-and-Operating-Public-Electric-Vehicle-C.7 Fuels Institute,Installing and Operating Public Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure.8 Eaton,Education&

93、Cooperation Will Deliver eMobility Expansion.Meanwhile,AHJs might have ordinances and codes applied to a particular site,such as permits and permit requirements that vary from site to site.AHJs might require a long lead-time on the installation site plans and may offer other requirements related to

94、the parking,building codes,or operation of the EVSE itself.7 This process of stakeholder coordination is comically complicated in the U.S.today.For example,across the nation,there are 49 individual jurisdictional commissions whose mission is to ensure cost prudence and be gatekeepers over this type

95、of infrastructure development.On top of that,there are often watchdog organizations who overlook the commissioners.All this puts pressure on the utilities,and if the utilities do not have approvals from the regulators,then development programs will stall.8 FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL

96、ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECASTFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST11As cities big and small begin to transform their infrastructure to a more connected,digital footprint,the incentives and development projects will help to dr

97、ive further EV charging infrastructure.In the public domain,the key factors at play are electrical provisioning at the site,adequate incentives,uniform building codes,and significant planning.The Eaton paper addresses another key topicthe impact to the electrical grid.Much is claimed in the media ab

98、out the potential for EVs to have a detrimental impact on the nations electrical grid,but this is misguided.As we have experienced 100 years of growth in need for electricity,a careful balance between supply and demand has mostly met the needs of modern society.However,the stable operation and funct

99、ioning of the grid has recently come into question due to widespread blackouts,including the 2003 Northeast Blackout,2011 Southwest Blackout,Hurricane Sandy,and most recent the 2021 Texas Power Crisis.In one scenario,the growth of EVs could impact the grid and have detrimental effects on power trans

100、mission to other electricity destinations such as housing,public works,industry,and more.Furthermore,the increased load from EVs is coming while an increase in renewable generation is changing the load and source characteristics of the grid.However,this scenario implies that the build-out of chargin

101、g stations goes unchecked and is unregulated.Based on the sheer complexity of organizing the various stakeholders,we can conclude there is too much oversight for this to become an issue.9 Eaton,Education&Cooperation Will Deliver eMobility Expansion.Furthermore,there are many novel solutions to this

102、problem(Figure 4).Such solutions include time-of-use charging schemes,demand-response methods,renewable energy and Energy Storage System(ESS),bi-directional charging technologies,integrated charging networks,and incentivizing consumer and fleet management to be active in sharing their charging statu

103、s.These technical and non-technical solutions will enable EVs to become a living,dynamic part of the electrical grid,versus an endpoint that simply consumes energy.9 FIGURE 4:FOUNDATIONS OF A SMART ELECTRIC VEHICLE GRIDSCRUBBERSReports estimate that the number of scrubbers by 2020 will be anywhere f

104、rom 3%to 15%of marine vessels.Current estimates of switch volumes from high sulfur fuel to LNG in 2020 are anywhere between 1.9%and 7%.SLOW STEAM10%reduction in speed drops fuel consump-tion by 25%;and reducing speed by a few knots can reduce fuel consump-tion between 25%and 50%.25%LNG1.9%-7%3%-15%R

105、ENEWABLESDEMAND-RESPONSEMETHODSBI-DIRECTIONALCHARGINGNETWORKED CHARGING STATIONSINCENTIVIZE ACTIVE USER PARTICIPATIONTIME-OF-USE CHARGING11Across the nation,there are 49 individual jurisdictional commissions whose mission is to ensure cost prudence and be gatekeepers over the electric grid infrastru

106、cture development.On top of that,there are often watchdog organizations who overlook the commissioners.FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST12FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST13CONSUMER

107、PERSPECTIVES Education is a key requirement for the ongoing growth of EV adoption among mainstream consumers.This element must not be lessened among the long list of other EVSE deployment considerations,as consumer demand will be a catalyst to a heavily used infrastructure.Therefore,this study aims

108、to uncover some high-level perspectives of consumers as it pertains to infrastructure availability,convenience,and charging preferences.According to S&P Global Mobility consumer research from 2019,there are a few interesting shortcomings around the awareness and acuity of charging EVs.The survey int

109、erviewed buyers of new vehicles in countries and regions all over the world on topics from connectivity and safety to electrification perspectives.Of the respondents who had not purchased a hybrid or EV,cost,lack of charging stations,time to charge,and range were the major pain points that kept cust

110、omers in traditional internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicles (Figure 5).Lack of charging station availability10 S&P Global Mobility,Automotive E-Mobility Consumer Analysis 2021.11 S&P Global Mobility,Automotive E-Mobility Consumer Analysis 2021.came in as the second most important detractor at 54%of

111、 respondents,while time required for charging came as the third most important detractor at 41%of respondents.Furthermore,among those who bought an EV,there are yet more concerning results.Looking at consumer perception on a global basis,51%of respondents who bought an EV said they were not familiar

112、 with any public vehicle charging locations near where they live and work.10 As mentioned before,any vehicle owner who does not see charging stations nearby will be less likely to believe they can maintain their current mobility needs with an EV.Nationwide,29%of U.S.EV owners who said they wouldnt b

113、uy another EV(15%)believed the public charging infrastructure in their locality was insufficient.11 Regionally,the West Coast states of California,Oregon,and Washington currently make up 47.2%of the U.S.EV VIO.Respondents from this region felt strongly that their charging infrastructure was inadequa

114、te compared with other regions of the U.S.where EV uptake has not yet reached congested levels.Too expesive/Pricing issuesLack of charging station availabilityTime required for chargingLimited travel rangeUnfamiliar user experienceThere were too few model optionsPerforance issuesUnclear resale value

115、OtherWhy wouldnt you purchase an electric/hybrid vehicle?10%20%30%40%50%60%010203040500 31%51%36%12%28%4%3%22%FIGURE 5:CONSUMER BARRIERS TO PURCHASING AN ELECTRIC VEHICLESource:S&P Global Mobility eMobility Consumer Survey,202114MARKET REPORTU.S.Historical Electric Vehicle and Electric Vehicle Suppl

116、y Equipment Market ReportTo understand where the market will likely be in the coming years and what it will take to get there,it is important to first be familiar with current market conditions.The following section provides summaries of current EVSE,EV new vehicle registrations(NVR),and EV VIOs to

117、give context to how the U.S.EV market has been developing,its total size,and the current service level.FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECASTFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST15U.S.Histori

118、cal Electric Vehicle and Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment Market Report To understand where the market will likely be in the coming years and what it will take to get there,it is important to first be familiar with current market conditions.The following section provides summaries of current EVSE,E

119、V new vehicle registrations(NVR),and EV VIOs to give context to how the U.S.EV market has been developing,its total size,and the current service level.Plug-In Vehicles in Operation IHS Markit VIO and NVR data sets provide the most complete and accurate picture of where vehicles are registered when t

120、hey are first purchased and throughout their life cycle.In Figure 6,plug-in VIO has been isolated and compared against the total VIO population to determine the current adoption of EVs in the top 15 states and nationally.These data represent light consumer vehicle registrations only.FIGURE 5:CURRENT

121、 U.S.PLUG-IN VEHICLES IN OPERATION,TOP 15 STATES Figure 7 shows the U.S.mapped by plug-in EV VIO volume categories.Currently only a few states have an adoption of EVs higher than 1%,and even California has just 2.4%of vehicles registered as EVs.Outside of the top 15,Hawaii and Washington,D.C.,come i

122、n at 1.3%and 1.5%adoption,respectively.California is home to 40.9%of all EVs and PHEVs in the U.S.,and the top 15 states are home to 81.7%of EVs registered in the U.S.as of July 2021.U.S.Historical Electric Vehicle and Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment Market Report To understand where the market wi

123、ll likely be in the coming years and what it will take to get there,it is important to first be familiar with current market conditions.The following section provides summaries of current EVSE,EV new vehicle registrations(NVR),and EV VIOs to give context to how the U.S.EV market has been developing,

124、its total size,and the current service level.Plug-In Vehicles in Operation IHS Markit VIO and NVR data sets provide the most complete and accurate picture of where vehicles are registered when they are first purchased and throughout their life cycle.In Figure 6,plug-in VIO has been isolated and comp

125、ared against the total VIO population to determine the current adoption of EVs in the top 15 states and nationally.These data represent light consumer vehicle registrations only.FIGURE 5:CURRENT U.S.PLUG-IN VEHICLES IN OPERATION,TOP 15 STATES Figure 7 shows the U.S.mapped by plug-in EV VIO volume ca

126、tegories.Currently only a few states have an adoption of EVs higher than 1%,and even California has just 2.4%of vehicles registered as EVs.Outside of the top 15,Hawaii and Washington,D.C.,come in at 1.3%and 1.5%adoption,respectively.California is home to 40.9%of all EVs and PHEVs in the U.S.,and the

127、 top 15 states are home to 81.7%of EVs registered in the U.S.as of July 2021.U.S.Historical Electric Vehicle and Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment Market Report To understand where the market will likely be in the coming years and what it will take to get there,it is important to first be familiar w

128、ith current market conditions.The following section provides summaries of current EVSE,EV new vehicle registrations(NVR),and EV VIOs to give context to how the U.S.EV market has been developing,its total size,and the current service level.Plug-In Vehicles in Operation IHS Markit VIO and NVR data set

129、s provide the most complete and accurate picture of where vehicles are registered when they are first purchased and throughout their life cycle.In Figure 6,plug-in VIO has been isolated and compared against the total VIO population to determine the current adoption of EVs in the top 15 states and na

130、tionally.These data represent light consumer vehicle registrations only.FIGURE 5:CURRENT U.S.PLUG-IN VEHICLES IN OPERATION,TOP 15 STATES Figure 7 shows the U.S.mapped by plug-in EV VIO volume categories.Currently only a few states have an adoption of EVs higher than 1%,and even California has just 2

131、.4%of vehicles registered as EVs.Outside of the top 15,Hawaii and Washington,D.C.,come in at 1.3%and 1.5%adoption,respectively.California is home to 40.9%of all EVs and PHEVs in the U.S.,and the top 15 states are home to 81.7%of EVs registered in the U.S.as of July 2021.STATE.PLUG-IN XEV.BEV.PHEV.SH

132、ARE PLUG-IN XEV.%BEV.%PHEV California 768,473 476,268 292,205 2.38%1.48%0.91%Florida 102,290 74,698 27,592 0.57%0.41%0.15%Texas 83,253 59,123 24,130 0.35%0.25%0.10%New York 80,951 42,762 38,189 0.68%0.36%0.32%Washington 78,097 56,262 21,835 1.11%0.80%0.31%New Jersey 50,592 35,509 15,083 0.70%0.49%0.

133、21%Arizona 50,403 35,711 14,692 0.73%0.52%0.21%Illinois 45,558 29,886 15,672 0.43%0.29%0.15%Massachusetts 43,532 25,009 18,523 0.78%0.45%0.33%Colorado 40,885 28,312 12,573 0.78%0.54%0.24%Oregon 39,417 25,421 13,996 1.06%0.68%0.38%Georgia 38,623 27,194 11,429 0.41%0.29%0.12%Pennsylvania 38,211 22,144

134、 16,067 0.33%0.19%0.14%Maryland 36,729 22,106 14,623 0.73%0.44%0.29%Virginia 36,131 22,765 13,366 0.48%0.30%0.18%Top 15 1,533,145 983,170 549,975 0.93%0.59%0.33%National 1,876,293 1,188,318 687,975 0.66%0.42%0.24%PLUG-IN VEHICLES IN OPERATIONS&P Global Mobility VIO and NVR data sets provide the most

135、 complete and accurate picture of where vehicles are registered when they are first purchased and throughout their life cycle.In Figure 6,plug-in VIO has been isolated and compared against the total VIO population to determine the current adoption of EVs in the top 15 states and nationally.These dat

136、a represent light consumer vehicle registrations only.FIGURE 6:CURRENT U.S.PLUG-IN VEHICLES IN OPERATION,TOP 15 STATES (MOST REGISTERED EVS IN TOTAL)SHARE OF TOTAL VEHICLES IN OPERATION(percentage)PLUG-IN VEHICLES IN OPERATIONFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPME

137、NT DEMAND FORECASTFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST1625,000-45,000FIGURE 7:MAP OF U.S.STATES,BY PLUG-IN VEHICLES IN OPERATION VOLUMES80,0000 Plug-In New Vehicle Registrations The EVSE requirement is primarily determined by the number of EVs

138、in operation within a given market,but for additional context,Figure 8 details the new registration development seen over the past three years.The year 2020 was challenging for many industries,and the automotive sector was no exception.Despite the challenges,several states,including Florida,New Jers

139、ey,Pennsylvania,and Texas,showed substantial growth last year.FIGURE 7:U.S.NEW VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS,PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES,BY TOP 15 STATES Figure 7 shows the U.S.mapped by plug-in EV VIO volume categories.Currently only a few states have an adoption of EVs higher than 1%,and even California has

140、 just 2.4%of vehicles registered as EVs.Outside of the top 15,Hawaii and Washington,D.C.,come in at 1.3%and 1.5%adoption,respectively.California is home to 40.9%of all EVs and PHEVs in the U.S.,and the top 15 states are home to 81.7%of EVs registered in the U.S.as of July 2021.FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.

141、S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST17.STATE201820192020JAN-JULY 2021CHANGE 2018-2020 California 145,255 135,075 115,539 84,393-20.5%Florida 13,257 16,272 20,157 13,837 52.0%New York 14,565 13,156 17,090 11,585 17.3%Texas 11,173 14,438 13,643 11,705 22.1%New Jersey

142、8,661 8,926 13,337 7,742 54.0%Washington 12,140 11,560 11,755 7,616-3.2%Massachusetts 8,693 6,997 8,110 5,417-6.7%Colorado 6,747 7,578 7,718 5,039 14.4%Illinois 6,949 6,375 7,398 5,027 6.5%Pennsylvania 5,733 5,587 7,015 4,625 22.4%Arizona 6,703 7,046 6,825 4,551 1.8%Maryland 5,902 6,371 6,552 4,185

143、11.0%Oregon 5,616 6,493 6,366 4,538 13.4%Virginia 6,157 5,946 5,924 4,476-3.8%North Carolina 4,492 4,816 5,102 3,955 13.6%Top 15 262,043 256,636 252,531 178,691-3.6%National 308,147 302,665 303,766 220,187-1.4%PLUG-IN NEW VEHICLE REGISTRATIONSThe EVSE requirement is primarily determined by the numbe

144、r of EVs in operation within a given market,but for additional context,Figure 8 details the new registration development seen over the past three years.The year 2020 was challenging for many industries,and the automotive sector was no exception.Despite the challenges,several states,including Florida

145、,New Jersey,Pennsylvania,and Texas,showed substantial growth last year.FIGURE 8:U.S.NEW VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS,PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES,BY TOP 15 STATESFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECASTFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHI

146、CLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST18-4.9%to 10.0%FIGURE 9:MAP OF U.S.BY NEW PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS GROWTH 2018-2020-21.2%to-19.0%-18.9%to-5.0%10.1%to 35.0%35.1%to 64.2%As seen in Figure 9,according to IHS Markits new registration data,California new registrations have declined year

147、-over-year from 2018 to 2020,but strong 20062021 numbers point to a reversal of that trend this year for the state as well as the entire nation.Since January 2018,California has been home to 64%of new EV registrations,however that share of the EV market has declined to 38%.This is a testimony to the

148、 increasing adoption of EVs across the country,not necessarily a decline in gross sales in California.Among these are Nevada,Florida,Maine,New Jersey,and West Virginia.While those are standout states,much of the U.S.in Figure 9 is colored yellow,indicating a 10.1%to 35%plug-in vehicle registration g

149、rowth,demonstrating the trend is not isolated to a few states but to the nation as a whole.FIGURE 8:MAP OF U.S.BY NEW PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS GROWTH Electric Vehicle Consumer Purchase Trends Figure 10 is a summary of the top 22 BEV models(excludes PHEV)in the U.S.and indicates whether

150、 they were purchased as an additional vehicle for the household(garage)or to replace a retired or trade-in vehicle.It is clear that,compared to gas models,BEVs are typically purchased as additions to the garage.But in the first quarter of 2021,for the first time more than 25%of new BEVs where purcha

151、sed as a replacement,according to IHS Markit Retail Loyalty data.This trend may point to an increased williningness of consumers to rely on BEVs as their primary vehicle.As seen in Figure 9,according to S&P Global Mobilitys new registration data,California new registrations have declined year-over-y

152、ear from 2018 to 2020,but strong 20062021 numbers point to a reversal of that trend this year for the state as well as the entire nation.Since January 2018,California has been home to 64%of new EV registrations,however that share of the EV market has declined to 38%.This is a testimony to the increa

153、sing adoption of EVs across the country,not necessarily a decline in gross sales in California.Among these are Nevada,Florida,Maine,New Jersey,and West Virginia.While those are standout states,much of the U.S.in Figure 9 is colored yellow,indicating a 10.1%to 35%plug-in vehicle registration growth,d

154、emonstrating the trend is not isolated to a few states but to the nation as a whole.FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST1919California is home to 40.9%of all EVs and PHEVs in the U.S.,and the top 15 states are home to 81.7%of EVs registered in

155、the U.S.as of July 2021.California is home to 40.9%of all EVs and PHEVs in the U.S.,and the top 15 states are home to 81.7%of EVs registered in the U.S.as of July 2021.California is home to 40.9%of all EVs and PHEVs in the U.S.,and the top 15 states are home to 81.7%of EVs registered in the U.S.as o

156、f July 2021.California is home to 40.9%of all EVs and PHEVs in the U.S.,and the top 15 states are home to 81.7%of EVs registered in the U.S.as of July 2021.California is home to 40.9%of all EVs and PHEVs in the U.S.,and the top 15 states are home to 81.7%of EVs registered in the U.S.as of July 2021.

157、California is home to 40.9%of all EVs and PHEVs in the U.S.,and the top 15 states are home to 81.7%of EVs registered in the U.S.as of July 2021.California is home to 40.9%of all EVs and PHEVs in the U.S.,and the top 15 states are home to 81.7%of EVs registered in the U.S.as of July 2021.California i

158、s home to 40.9%of all EVs and PHEVs in the U.S.,and the top 15 states are home to 81.7%of EVs registered in the U.S.as of July 2021.FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECASTFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT

159、 DEMAND FORECAST20ELECTRIC VEHICLE CONSUMER PURCHASE TRENDSFigure 10 is a summary of the top 22 BEV models(excludes PHEV)in the U.S.and indicates whether they were purchased as an additional vehicle for the household(garage)or to replace a retired or trade-in vehicle.It is clear that,compared to gas

160、 models,BEVs are typically purchased as additions to the garage.But in the first quarter of 2021,for the first time more than 25%of new BEVs where purchased as a replacement,according to S&P Global Mobility Retail Loyalty data.This trend may point to an increased williningness of consumers to rely o

161、n BEVs as their primary vehicle.Building off Figure 10,Figure 11 looks at vehicle-buying households in the first six months of 2021 who either purchased a BEV or were an exisiting BEV owner who returned to market.Of the households who purchased an EV in the first half of 2021,66.5%had most recently

162、purchased a gas-powered vehicle.Of households who already owned an EV and returned to market in the first half of 2021,53.4%chose to purchase another and 36.1%returned to gas.These numbers tell a story that the majority of pure EV owners who return to market are happy enough with their EV to buy ano

163、ther.It also clairifies a commonly held notion that for many consumers a gas-powered vehicle is still most desirable,at least until the required infrastrucure and EV technology mature.Furthermore,Figure 12 shows a clear clustering of EV loyalty along the coastal regions.However,loyalty rates are gro

164、wing in the lower Midwest and the South-Central U.S.,with EV powertrain loyalty over 35%.TIME PERIODTOP 22 BEV MODELSCOMPETING GAS MODELS 2020-Qtr1 78.1%52.7%2020-Qtr276.4%46.6%2020-Qtr3 75.4%46.4%2020-Qtr4 75.7%47.9%2021-Qtr1 74.7%42.7%FUEL TYPEBEV PURCHASERS PREVIOUS PURCHASEBEV OWNERS NEXT PURCHA

165、SEDiesel1.9%2.0%Electric18.6%53.4%flexible(gas/eth)3.1%0.8%Gasoline66.5%36.1%Hybrid9.9%7.8%FIGURE 10:OVERALL U.S.ELECTRIC VEHICLE RETAIL PURCHASE TYPE(ADDITIONAL VS.REPLACEMENT)OF TOP U.S.BEV MODELSFIGURE 11:U.S.ELECTRIC VEHICLE RETAIL PURCHASE POWERTRAIN LOYALTYSource:S&P Global Mobility Retail Loy

166、altySource:S&P Global Mobility Retail LoyaltyPrevious vehicle and next purchase decisions 06-21 YTDAddition to garage(vs.replacement)This metric is mapped by state in Figure 13FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST2145.1%to 50.0%FIGURE 12:MAP OF

167、U.S.BY ELECTRIC VEHICLE OWNER POWERTRAIN LOYALTY25.0%to-35.0%35.1%to-45.0%50.1%to 55.0%55.1%to 65.5%21FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST22ESTABLISHED PUBLIC ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENTFigure 13 details the existing publicly available EV

168、SE infrastructure in the top 15 states and nationally.Level 2 refers to AC charging and Level 3 refers to DCFC.According to PlugShare(Sept 2021),these top 15 states currently make up approximately 73%of all public EVSE nationally.CCalifornia is home to 28%of all charging locations and 30%of all char

169、ging stations in the U.S.,although only 19%of Tesla-networked stations are found in California.This stark difference in distribution between the Tesla network and the rest illustrates how Teslas network is intended to support brand growth,compared to most charging networks,which seek to serve existi

170、ng and forecasted demand.STATECHARGING LOCATIONSSTATION COUNTTESLA STATIONSLEVEL 2LEVEL 3OUTLET COUNTLEVEL 2LEVEL 3TESLA DEST.TESLA SUPER California 7,790 26530 5,465 6,626 4,439 32603 22,002 5,136 1,927 3,538 New York 2,546 5457 1,628 3,321 508 6976 4,786 562 1,158 470 Florida 2,401 5312 1,492 3,13

171、4 686 6068 3,770 806 796 696 Texas 2,021 3869 1,240 2,202 427 4530 2,753 537 703 537 Washington 1,634 3700 565 2,599 536 4375 3,132 678 231 334 Massachusetts 1,254 2809 345 2,234 230 3984 3,366 273 105 240 Georgia 1,271 3040 708 1,878 454 3693 2,446 539 420 288 Colorado 1,261 2496 529 1,467 500 3205

172、 2,072 604 288 241 Maryland 1,077 2728 351 1,822 555 3173 2,219 603 140 211 Virginia 1,072 2615 777 1,317 521 2889 1,491 621 395 382 Pennsylvania 1,247 2233 562 1,469 202 2748 1,925 261 256 306 North Carolina 1,157 2250 543 1,458 249 2669 1,829 297 279 264 Michigan 1,184 2318 366 1,607 345 2639 1,89

173、9 374 142 224 Illinois 1,163 2162 584 1,356 222 2569 1,680 305 278 306 Oregon 1,009 2140 383 1,401 356 2432 1,612 437 216 167 Top 15 28,087 69659 15,538 43,891 10,230 8455356,982 2,033 7,334 8,204 National 42,402 95290 22,213 59,013 4,064 115197 6,452 6,532 10,753 11,460 FIGURE 13:U.S.PUBLIC ELECTRI

174、C VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT COUNTS,BY TYPE AND LEVELCHARGING STATIONSCHARGER OUTLETSTOTAL22FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST2310.5-14.0FIGURE 14-A:MAP OF U.S.BY RATIO OF PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES TO PUBLIC CHARGING STATIONSFIGURE 14-B:PLUG-IN

175、 ELECTRIC VEHICLES TO PUBLIC CHARGING STATIONS18.0High EV-to-EVSE ratios are visible along the West Coast and in Arizona,Florida,Illinois,New Jersey,and Texas(Figure 14).According to many internationally recognized sources,a ratio of greater than 15 EVs to 1 EVSE station represents a congested infra

176、structure.According to S&P Global Mobility custom analysis,nationally there are 19.7 EVs for every one charging stations,and looking at this state by state provides a stark picture of where the need is highest today.However,the states to focus on will change slightly in the future.ELECTRIC VEHICLE R

177、ANGE VS.CHARGING TIME TRENDSS&P Global Mobility forecasts look deep into the technical elements and components of all vehicles,including EVs.Just as ICE vehicles have long competed on certain technical efficiency ratings,EVs also differ in myriad ways.For example,while many EVs might.STATETOTAL RATI

178、OLEVEL 2LEVEL 3California29.041.496.3Florida19.326.074.0Texas21.528.786.4New York14.818.182.8Washington21.127.689.8New Jersey30.247.881.6Arizona31.142.4116.1Illinois21.127.986.3Massachusetts15.518.692.6Colorado16.423.355.2Oregon18.424.475.4Georgia12.716.852.1Pennsylvania17.122.275.2Maryland13.518.74

179、7.9Virginia13.821.140.0Top 1522.430.783.3National19.726.973.5Source:PlugShare,September 2021;S&P Global Mobility Vehicles in Operation,July 2021FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST24have a similar-sized batteryoften between 40 and 80 kilowatt-h

180、our(kWh)in capacitycharging those batteries can vary based on on-board charging equipment,software,and even the chemistry of the battery cells.Other aspects like energy efficiency(miles per kWh)and driving range are often direct comparables.According to S&P Global Mobility,looking across all EVs pro

181、duced in North America in 2021,the weighted average driving range today is 317 miles on a full charge.This number is forecasted to drop down to 270 miles in 2025 as more lower-cost,lower-spec EVs begin outnumbering the higher-end,longer-range EVs that have made up a bulk of the current volume.Howeve

182、r,as these vehicles range from 270 to 315 miles or more,charging times will be a critical component to the end users perception of convenience and user experience.Using the same weighted averaging,in 2021 the average EV produced in North America will take approximately 1.5 hours to charge to 80%on a

183、 50 kW DCFC.Due to the model mix,charger technologies,and software,this number is expected to increase to approximately two hours by 2025.Interestingly,the rated charge times increase here due to a significant increase in battery capacity among the high-end,premium EVs,which skew the weighted averag

184、e toward longer recharge rates.Another factor to consider for consumers is the state-of-charge(SoC)when they begin their session.SoCs will directly impact how fast or slow a charge session is completed.The natural conclusion here is that the evolution of the public charging network must strive for h

185、igher power kW ratings on average,especially among Level 3 charging stations.However,a debate is currently underway on the viability of Level 2 AC charging versus high-powered Level 3 charging options.Many industry officals believe the effectiveness of an average Level 2 charging station with 7.2 kW

186、 of power on a full-size truck with a 150 kWh battery is pretty low,when it could very well take more than 20 hours to reach 80%charged.Meanwhile,if plugged into a high-powered 350 kW DCFC,the same truck might reach replace with 80%state of charge in three hours,with the first 10 minutes providing u

187、pward of 100 miles of range,before tapering off to lower power rates.In reality,neither are a perfect solution.Low-power AC charging provides a lower cost to install,operate,and charge,which will attract economically oriented developers,whereas higher powered DCFC stations are not only much more exp

188、ensive to install and operate but also drive higher costs to end users to overcome demand charges(which assess fees based on a customers peak electricity usage)or result in higher margins to operators.Yet,despite the user-experience advantage,costs and physical installation constraints of high-power

189、ed DCFCs may prove to be too challenging to overcome for many developers.Herein lies a potential for a“Goldilocks solution.”The 25 to 50 kW DCFCs have a smaller footprint than those 150 and 350 kW chargers,and while they require power transformers,they are still much less expensive to install and op

190、erate in the long run.Furthermore,they provide a decent charge time to both mainstream and high-end EVs without costing the end user as much in charge session fees.Obviously,all of these considerations will be measured when developers are choosing which power rating and technologies to install,but o

191、nly the future will determine if these mid-range DCFCs prove most valuable in a majority of scenarios.Yet,despite the user-experience advantage,costs and physical installation constraints of high-powered DCFCs may prove to be too challenging to overcome for many developers.25FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.

192、PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECASTU.S.NATIONAL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT FORECASTINGAmong the major countries in the Americas,most of the charging station deployments are expected to be in the U.S.,followed by Canada and Mexico.According to the S&P Global Mo

193、bility EV charging infrastructure forecast,in 2020,the U.S.accounted for about 90%of the charging stations deployed across North and South America;Canada accounted for 8%.FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECASTFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-

194、LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST26Domestic charging is still expected to be a preferred source of charging among U.S.EV owners and as such will grow to over 10 million charging stations in homes across the U.S.by 2030(Figure 15).Furthermore,public charging stations will grow i

195、n commensurate volumes with AC charging reaching more than 1.7 million units by 2030 and DC charging reaching nearly 90,000 at the same time.S&P Global Mobility expects that the on-road EVs in the U.S.will increase from 1.4 million in 2020 to about 18.1 million units in 2030,a massive 29%compound an

196、nual growth rate,and by that time will represent about 5.9%of the vehicle parc.Such rapid increase in EV penetration in the U.S.market,coupled with the favorable regulatory policy developed by the government,is driving the rapid deployment of both public and domestic charging stations in the U.S.vs

197、national averageMILES TRAVELED INDEXPUBLIC/SEMI-PUBLIC EVSE DEMAND FORECAST 2030HOUSING MIX INDEX118%EVSE LEVEL 240,696AC chargingEVSE LEVEL 32,161Fast charging39%of people feel charging infrastructure is suficientDomestic(home chargers)Public(public and semi-public are chargers that are for public

198、use,including workplace or public parking location.United States:Cumulative growth in domestic and public EV charging stationsDOMESTIC CHARGING STATION GROWTH(2020-30)PREFERRED PLACE AND ADEQUACY OF CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE2020-30Millions24681012AC VS DC PUBLIC AND SEMI-PUBLIC CHARGING STATION GROWTH

199、(2020-30)AC station growth 2020-30Millions0.20.40.80.61.211.41.81.6DC station growth 2020-30Thousands2040608010031%16%53%FIGURE 15:U.S.ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT INSTALLATION GROWTHNote:The E-Mobility consumer survey 2021 is a separate offering of S&P Global Mobility and is neither related to

200、 nor has any influence on the EV charging infrastructure forecast.The sufficiency of the charging infrastructure survey is not limited to the EV owners.Source:S&P Global Mobility 2021FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST27In November 2021,Presid

201、ent Joe Biden signed into law a$1.2 trillion infrastructure bill.12 The bill is expected to support the automotive industry in many ways,including improved road conditions,cleaner commercial vehicles,EV battery factories,battery recycling,and lithium mining and refining.However,one of the largest EV

202、 appropriations will be toward vehicle charging.Some$7.5 billion has been allocated to alternative fueling stations,primarily for EV chargers and supporting infrastructure across the country.S&P Global Mobility expects this funding will support the installation of approximately 400,000 new charging

203、stations over the next five years through 2026.This is in comparison to the promise of 500,000 U.S.public charging stations that Biden promised voters by 2030.S&P Global Mobility expects that the addition of 400,000 new public charging stations via Biden administration funding will not be enough to

204、support the massive influx of EVs in the region by 2030.There will be a gap to fill.According to PlugShare(Sept.2021)in 2021,there were about 95,000 public charging stations in the U.S.,of which approximately 22,000 were Tesla-specific charging stations,leaving only 73,000 for owners of other brands

205、 EVs.S&P Global Mobility forecasts that by 2030,the cumulative deployment of public charging stations will increase to approximately 1.8 million units.At this level,the approximate EV-to-EVSE ratio nationwide would be 10.4,providing a nearly optimal ratio.As estimated,if we assume the infrastructure

206、 bill will provide 400,000 new stations,in addition to the 73,000 existing public stations,the U.S.will have a sizable gap of more than 1.3 million stations needed to keep the EV-to-EVSE ratio within a sustainable level.12 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act,H.R.3684,117th Congress,introduced Jun

207、e 4,2021,signed November 15,2021,available at https:/www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/text.We can presume that future federal funding may occur,but fortunately,the development of charging infrastructure in the U.S.is not limited to EVSE companies,original equipment manufacturers(

208、OEMs),or the federal government;it is also driven by individual states,utilities,and corporate institutions that are actively partnering with technology suppliers to deploy an increasing number of charging stations.The recent Southern California Edison plan to spend$436 million,together with New Yor

209、k utilities plan to spend$701 million,will support the development of nearly 100,000 EV charging stations.(Walton,2020)(Balaraman,2020)Investments like these in multiple states should provide a substantial support against the federal funding to get the U.S.infrastructure to a sustainable density at

210、1.8 million stations by 2030.Because so much of the momentum will be carried by state-and utility-level investments,it is critical to investigate the state-level EV VIO trends to ensure infrastructure development is deployed where it will be in demand.S&P Global Mobility expects that the addition of

211、 400,000 new public charging stations via Biden administration funding will not be enough to support the massive influx of EVs in the region by 2030.There will be a gap to fill.28FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECASTPLUG-IN NEW VEHICLE SALES FOR

212、ECASTThe EVSE forecasting in this report leverages S&P Global Mobilitys unrivaled competency in light-vehicle sales forecasts for predicting the market demand.This forecast(Figure 16)represents new vehicle sales,different from vehicles in operation,and considers many factors and draws upon expertise

213、 from across S&P Global Mobility,incorporating model policy,economic indicators,production capacity,and more.This forecast is regionalized using a robust methodology combining factors of historical vehicle registrations,demographic and socioeconomic data,and housing development information to arrive

214、 at a granular forecast for use in planning EVSE requirements at a micro-geography level.Shown in Figure 16,in 2030,California is expected to contribute 17.4%of new plug-in EV registrations(at roughly 484,000),and the top 15 states will contribute a combined 73.4%(versus 38%and 81%in 20062021,respec

215、tively).The growth in EVs is expected to expand in the coming years as traditional OEMs ramp up model rollouts and emerging start-ups work to establish their place in the market.U.S.STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE FORECASTING.STATEMODEL YEAR 2023MODEL YEAR 2025MODEL YEAR 2028MODEL YEAR 2030 California

216、286,903 345,964 462,204 483,859 Texas 92,239 146,210 212,157 240,297 Florida 95,387 145,935 212,493 236,646 New York 74,661 99,022 129,026 154,760 Michigan 48,022 79,523 118,677 135,103 Illinois 48,867 67,185 87,384 102,730 New Jersey 46,528 62,212 81,945 99,202 Pennsylvania 40,211 55,818 75,989 91,

217、512 Oklahoma 34,004 53,274 74,122 86,106 Ohio 33,858 50,565 70,337 84,952 Georgia 31,384 46,233 67,476 74,831 North Carolina 24,744 38,044 53,410 63,423 Virginia 25,598 35,249 51,305 62,172 Arizona 26,827 38,599 55,409 61,614 Massachusetts 30,434 36,895 49,386 58,891 Top 15 939,667 1,300,728 1,801,3

218、20 2,036,098 National 1,189,311 1,756,572 2,429,161 2,775,727 FIGURE 16:U.S.STATE-LEVEL PLUG-IN ELECTRIC VEHICLE SALES FORECAST THROUGH 2030,TOP 15 STATESFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST29FORECAST OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN OPERATIONThe new ve

219、hicle sales forecast in Figure 16 was subsequently converted to a VIO forecast through a methodology,which combines the historical VIO with forecasted sales,applies yearly scrappage,and models change-of-ownership as older-model EVs shift to different markets over time(Figure 17).Figure 17 shows that

220、,by 2030,California is expected to hold 24.9%of plug-in VIO with the top 15 states having a combined 75.7%(versus 41%and 81.7%in 20062021,respectively).The percentage growth from 2025 to 2030 is expected to vary widely by state as emerging markets pick up speed and states home to early adopters buil

221、d on their existing base.To achieve this growth to 2025,2030,and beyond,a significant investment in infrastructure is required to support mass-market adoption of EVs.It is important to contrast the significant growth rates in EV VIO with the forecasted EV VIO market share,when combined with ICE and

222、hybrid vehicles.To this end,nationally,the U.S.vehicle parc is forecasted to be approximately 307 million vehicles in 2030 among all cars,light trucks,and SUVs.Even as sales and cumulative VIO of EVs expand,the market is only expected to have about 5.9%be plug-in EVs by then.STATE VIO 2025 VIO 2030

223、GROWTH 2025-30 California 2,943,532 4,518,839 53.5%Texas 373,007 1,413,638 279.0%Florida 353,572 1,367,370 286.7%New York 384,381 1,118,911 191.1%Michigan 219,987 690,699 214.0%Illinois 186,769 585,425 213.4%New Jersey 169,174 577,492 241.4%Pennsylvania 121,643 490,824 303.5%Oklahoma 123,873 474,604

224、 283.1%Ohio 268,907 465,586 73.1%Georgia 141,039 439,410 211.6%North Carolina 128,006 411,960 221.8%Virginia 191,189 408,620 113.7%Arizona 159,463 393,973 147.1%Massachusetts 149,554 378,517 153.1%Top 15 5,914,098 13,735,870 132.3%National 7,457,557 18,149,360 143.4%FIGURE 17:U.S.STATE-LEVEL PLUG-IN

225、 ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN OPERATION FORECAST THROUGH 2030,TOP 15 STATESNew York 6%NewJersey 4%Illinois3%Pennsylvania3%Michigan 3%Ohio 3%Washington 3%Georgia 2%North Carolina 2%Massachusetts 2%Arizona 2%Virginia 2%0%More than 25 years21 to 25 years16 to 20 years11 to 15 years6 to 10 years0 to 5 years Cal

226、ifornia25%Florida 8%Texas 8%Other states24%2030 PLUG-IN VIO FORECAST BY STATEFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST30The forecasting of EVSE is a data driven process,taking into consideration the expected future plug-in electric vehicles in opera

227、tion along with factors which influence out-of-home charging requirements including housing mix,miles traveled,and parking habits.The S&P Global Mobility methodology combines these inputs and was used to forecast EVSE requirements at a CT level.This highly granular forecast was then aggregated for t

228、he purpose of this report.A state-level prioritization has been created from the resulting aggregation to help guide industry stakeholders in the coming years.U.S.STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT FORECASTINGFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEM

229、AND FORECASTFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST31PRIORITIZATION OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT EXPANSION BY STATEThe state prioritization can help planners and investors understand the level of EVSE development that is required to suppor

230、t the growth and adoption of plug-in EVs in each state.As shown in Figure 2 in the executive summary of this report,California stands alone as the top priority simply due to the huge volume expectations for this state,which has already gone far and above the rest of the country in terms of adoption,

231、but as is seen in subsequent exhibits there are vastly differing levels of investment required for sub-areas of the state.The next priority level is dominated by the high-population states of Florida,New Jersey,New York,and Texas.This group will require massive investment in EVSE to support the larg

232、e volume of EVs expected to be registered by 2030 if even a relatively modest percentage of drivers adopt these vehicles.Priority 3 states are those with minimal EV adoption today but stand to see the largest percentage growth rates.The total volume in these states will still be light in comparison

233、to much of the country,but reasonable adoption is foreseeable if they have the infrastructure in place to lead growth.Finally,Priority 4 states are those where expected volume is low to moderate but the growth rate is not astronomically higher than the national average.Some of these states already h

234、ave relatively strong adoption of EVs and in general are expected to be good destinations for willing investors to expand EVSE networks and support growth over the coming years.Required charging to meet demandElectric vehicles(EV)in operation(VIO)growth 2021-2030#2 PrioritySUPPORT VOLUME#1 PriorityC

235、ONTINUED GROWTH#4 PrioritySUPPORT GROWTH#3 PriorityCONTINUED GROWTHCaliforniaTexasFloridaNew YorkNew JerseyAlabamaArkansasKentuckyLouisianaMississippiNorth DakotaOklahomaSouth DakotaWest VirginiaWyomingAlaskaArizonaColoradoConnecticutDelawareGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIowaKansasMaineMarylandMassachus

236、ettsMichiganMinnesotaMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew MexicoNorth CarolinaOhioOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaTennesseeUtahVermontVirginiaWashingtonWashington DCWisconsinHIGHHIGHLOW31FIGURE 2:U.S.STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT GROWTH PRIORITIZATIONnext priorit

237、y level is dominated by the high-population states of Florida,New Jersey,New York,and Texas.These states will have lower growth rates of EV VIO compared to California,yet due to sheer population size,a smaller increase in EV VIO will have a profound effect on the demands for a public charging networ

238、k.FIGURE 1:U.S.STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT GROWTH PRIORITIZATION Priority 3 states are lower volume in 2030 and have minimal EV adoption today but stand to see astronomical percentage growth rates in EV VIO over 20212030.Given the minimal adoption today,the current infrastructure i

239、s lacking,thus creating a need for additional EVSE to support the growth these states will see.Additionally,Priority 3 states,especially in the South,will provide crucial charging corridor support for highway transportation between states with higher EV VIO(such as Florida and Texas).So,building out

240、 infrastructure in Priority 3 states will not only benefit the local growth in EV VIO but also for those passing through.Finally,Priority 4 states are those where expected volume is low to moderate but the growth rate is not astronomically higher than the national average.Some of these states alread

241、y have strong adoption of EVs.As such,the growth in EV VIO should be met with equally steady growth in EVSE.Fortunately,this accounts for most states,including many of those with higher populations(such as Illinois,Pennsylvania,and Ohio).Fundamentally,deployment happens on the local and municipal le

242、vel,and this report introduces these details.However,the state-level analysis is an important and vital step to organizing the EVSE infrastructure strategies from a federal to state and,ultimately,local level of deployment.FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT

243、DEMAND FORECAST32Figure 18 shows a matrix visualized in more quantifiable terms,with California excluded to help with chart scaling.In the upper left,the high-volume states of Florida,New Jersey,New York,and Texas have public AC EVSE(Level 2)requirements of 75,000 stations,up to nearly 130,000 for T

244、exas.Of note,New Jersey and Texas have a lower volume of EVs in operation than Florida and New York,respectively,but are expected to require more EVSE due to the factors driving high rates of out-of-home charging.Figure 19 is an expanded view of the lower left quadrant of Figure 18 to show how each

245、of the Priority 4 states are plotted.This shows states like Illinois,Massachusetts,and Michigan will all need more than 45,000 AC charging stations installed and operational by 2030.This still pales in comparison to California or Texas,but it separates the Priority 4 states into yet another priorty

246、split.Due to many factors,several states will need fewer than 10,000 AC charging stations by 2030 to sustain their forecasted EV VIO.Additionally,Figure 20 tells a similar story for DCFC requirements,albeit with a lower overall volume.Florida,New Jersey,New York,and Texas all still place well into t

247、he Priority 2 zone,requiring between 3,200 and just under 6,000 DCFCs in place by 2030 to support the growth in the region.Notably,there are 15 states shown that will require 1,000 DCFCs in place(or more)by 2030 for a sustainable infrastructure.!#$%&(C)=I?I%&5$%&8-11*-%#6#+/-/76+B4+/-/&-683%7%/40&2&

248、0!?/A;9!X!/.!+#!h(+#!6/f!01!)*!,0f9!,1)!9+#)!01!?/A;9!XV!)0!.*0f!*0f!+8*!01!)*!P9/09/)-!Y!.)+).!+9!(,0)3!N*/.!.*0f.!.)+).!,/e!$,/#0/.!I+.+8*;.).!+#!I/8*/A+#!f/,!+,!#!=09!)*+#!YH!B!8*+9A/#A!.)+)/0#.!/#.)+,!+#!0(9+)/0#+,!C-!LE3!N*/.!.)/,!(+,.!/#!80=(+9/.0#!)0!B+,/109#/+!09!Nh+.!C;)!/)!.(+9+).!)*!P9/09

249、/)-!Y!.)+).!/#)0!-)!+#0)*9!(9/09)-!.(,/)3!&;!)0!=+#-!1+8)09.!.69+,!.)+).!f/,!#!1f9!)*+#!X!B!8*+9A/#A!.)+)/0#.!C-!LE!)0!.;.)+/#!)*/9!1098+.)!7:!:$F3!#$%&(E)=I?I%&5$%&8-11*-%#6#+/-/76+B3%7%/40&2&0+/-/&+7604!0051015202530354020k40k60k80k100k120k140kRequired net AC charging stations2021-2030 Electric ve

250、hicles in operation growth rate(growth in hundreds of percent)2030 PLUG-IN VIO FORECAST BY STATEFIGURE 18:2030 REQUIRED AC CHARGING STATIONS,BY STATE AND PRIORITY LEVELFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST33005101510k20k30k40k50kRequired net AC

251、charging stations2021-2030 Electric vehicles in operation growth rate(growth in hundreds of percent)2030 PLUG-IN VIO FORECAST BY STATE!#$%&(F)=I?I%&5$%&881!-+/1*-%#6#+/-/76+B4+/-/&-683%7%/40&2&0!5/ef/.!?/A;9!LX!/.!+#!h(+#!6/f!01!)*!,0f9!,1)!9+#)!01!?/A;9!L!)0!.*0f!P9/09/)-!Y!.)+).!/#!A9+)9!)+/,3!$#)

252、9.)/#A,-!;!)0!*/A*9!8099/09!)9+11/8!+#!(0(;,+)/0#!,6,.!)*!&B?B!.)+)/0#!9!F*/0!f/,!C!=;8*!8,0.9!)0!I/8*/A+#!+#!$,/#0/.!f*/8*!*+!+!,+9A9!9,+)/6!A+(!+=0#A!B!8*+9A/#A!#.3!S69)*,.!=0.)!01!)*.!P9/09/)-!Y!.)+).!f/,!#!=09!)*+#!H!&B?B!.)+)/0#.!)0!.;.)+/#!)*!7:!:$F!/#!LE!.(+9+)/#A!)*=!190=!,0f9%108;.!.)+).!/#

253、!)*!P9/09/)-!Y!9+#A3!005101520253035401k2k3k4k5k6k7kRequired net DC charging stations2021-2030 Electric vehicles in operation growth rate(growth in hundreds of percent)2030 PLUG-IN VIO FORECAST BY STATEFIGURE 19:2030 REQUIRED AC CHARGING STATIONS,PRIORITY 4 LEVEL STATES ONLYFIGURE 20:2030 REQUIRED D

254、C FAST CHARGING STATIONS,BY STATE AND PRIORITY LEVELFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST34Likewise,Figure 21 is an expanded view of the lower left quadrant of Figure 20 to show Priority 4 states in greater detail.Interestingly,due to higher cor

255、ridor traffic and population levels,the DCFC station requirements in Pennsylvania and Ohio will be much closer to Michigan and Illinois,which had a larger relative gap among AC charging needs.Nevertheless,most of these Priority 4 states will need more than 500 DCFC stations to sustain the EV VIO in

256、2030,separating them from lower-focus states in the Priority 4 range.The primary factor influencing these results is per capita vehicle miles traveled.U.S.Department of Transportation data from July 2021 was used in conjunction with S&P Global Mobility VIO to index where travelers are taking longer

257、trips.Drivers on urban New Jersey roads were shown to travel 26%farther than the regional average.Conversely,New York drivers tend to stay closer to home,traveling 19%less distance per capita.Another critical factor that influences where charging infrastructure will be required on a micro-geography

258、level is housing mix.Areas with a higher occurrence of multi-family dwellings will require more charging close to home given that,in general,home-charging infrastructure will be a greater challenge for these dwelling types.Considering that,nationally,approximately 74%of housing is single family with

259、 off-street parking or a garage,the housing mix is less of an influence when looking at a state-level view.But in local markets,understanding where multi-family dwellings are and where the EV!#$%&=I)=I?I%&5$%&881!-+/1*-%#6#+/-/76+B3%7%/40&2&0+/-/&+7604!N*!(9/=+9-!1+8)09!/#1,;#8/#A!)*.!9.;,).!/.!(9!8

260、+(/)+!6*/8,!=/,.!)9+6,3!2343!&(+9)=#)!01!N9+#.(09)+)/0#!+)+!190=!a;,-!LLX!f+.!;.!/#!80#G;#8)/0#!f/)*!$O4!I+9e/)!:$F!)0!/#h!f*9!)9+6,9.!+9!)+e/#A!,0#A9!)9/(.3!&9/69.!0#!;9C+#!Sf!a9.-!90+.!f9!.*0f#!)0!)9+6,!LZi!1+9)*9!)*+#!)*!9A/0#+,!+69+A3!B0#69.,-!Sf!Q09e!9/69.!)#!)0!.)+-!8,0.9!)0!*0=!)9+6,/#A!Xi!,.

261、!/.)+#8!(9!8+(/)+3!#0)*9!89/)/8+,!1+8)09!)*+)!/#1,;#8.!f*9!8*+9A/#A!/#19+.)9;8);9!f/,!C!9!0#!+!=/890%A0A9+(*-!,6,!/.!*0;./#A!=/h3!9+.!f/)*!+!*/A*9!088;99#8!01!=;,)/%1+=/,-!f,/#A.!f/,!9f,/#A!)-(.3!B0#./9/#A!)*+)!#+)/0#+,-!+(90h/=+),-!Yi!01!*0;./#A!/.!./#A,!00510155001000150020002500Required net DC ch

262、arging stations2021-2030 Electric vehicles in operation growth rate(growth in hundreds of percent)2030 PLUG-IN VIO FORECAST BY STATEFIGURE 21:2030 REQUIRED DC FAST CHARGING STATIONS,PRIORITY 4 LEVEL STATES ONLYFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECA

263、ST35owners in these dwellings park when they arent at home will be critical in the development of convenient and sufficient EVSE infrastructure for those who cannot charge at home as readily.A simple way to understand the required investment in EVSE through 2030 is to compare the required infrastruc

264、ture to the volume of EVs in operation(Figure 22).Keeping in mind the expected national average of 11 EVs per Level 2 AC charger in 2030,with local adjustments based on per capita miles traveled and housing mix,the huge requirements of Priority 1 and 2 states compared to that of Priority 3 and 4 are

265、 clearly visualized.Amazingly,Figure 22 shows regions of California,like the Bay Area and Southern California,have the same(or greater)EVSE growth requirements as entire states,like Texas or Florida(see the next section for more information on how California is subdivided).1+=/,-!f/)*!011%.)9)!(+9e/

266、#A!09!+!A+9+A!)*!*0;./#A!=/h!/.!,.!01!+#!/#1,;#8!f*#!,00e/#A!+)!+!.)+)%,6,!6/f3!W;)!/#!,08+,!=+9e).!;#9.)+#/#A!f*9!=;,)/%1+=/,-!f,/#A.!+9!+#!f*9!)*!7:!0f#9.!/#!)*.!f,/#A.!(+9e!f*#!)*-!+9#c)!+)!*0=!f/,!C!89/)/8+,!/#!)*!6,0(=#)!01!80#6#/#)!+#!.;11/8/#)!7:47!/#19+.)9;8);9!109!)*0.!f*0!8+#0)!8*+9A!+)!*0

267、=!+.!9+/,-3!#$%&=()=I?I%&5$%&8-11*-%#6#+/-/76+-683%7J&1/&8&0&1/%12&*10&+673&%-/764+/-/&G1-0!7%6-%&-.7$/+H!./=(,!f+-!)0!;#9.)+#!)*!9!/#6.)=#)!/#!7:47!)*90;A*!LE!/.!)0!80=(+9!)*!9!/#19+.)9;8);9!)0!)*!60,;=!01!7:.!/#!0(9+)/0#!_?/A;9!LL3!b(/#A!/#!=/#!)*!h(8)!#+)/0#+,!+69+A!01!XX!7:.!(9!56,!L!B!8*+9A9!/#

268、!LE!f/)*!,08+,!+G;.)=#).!C+.!0#!(9!8+(/)+!=/,.!)9+6,!+#!*0;./#A!=/h!)*!*;A!9!L!.)+).!80=(+9!)0!)*+)!01!P9/09/)-!E!+#!Y!+9!8,+9,-!6/.;+,/g3!=+g/#A,-!?/A;9!LL!.*0f.!9A/0#.!01!B+,/109#/+!,/e!)*!W+-!9+!+#!40;)*9#!B+,/109#/+!*+6!)*!.+=!_09!A9+)9!7:47!A90f)*!9+!_.!)*!#h)!.8)/0#!109!=09!/#109=+)/0#!0#!*0f!

269、B+,/109#/+!/.!.;C/6/3!$#!?/A;9!LE!h(+#.!)*!,0f9!,1)!9+#)!01!?/A;9!LL!)0!/,;.)9+)!f*9!.0=!01!)*!.=+,9!9A/0#.!01!B+,/109#/+!C-!7:!60,;=!./)!9,+)/6!)0!)*!.=+,9!.)+).!/#!)*!#+)/0#3!N*!/.89(+#8-!)*90;A*0;)!B+,/109#/+!/.!f/)*!40;)*9#!B+,/109#/+!1+9!+#!+C06!6#!)*!,+9A.)!01!)*!P9/09/)-!L!.)+).!f*/,!J9+)9!4+

270、89+=#)0!.,0).!/#!+=0#A!=/;=%60,;=!P9/09/)-!E!+#!Y!.)+).!.;8*!+.!N#.!09!B0#8)/8;)3!S09)*9#!B+,/109#/+!0#!)*!0)*9!*+#!1+,.!+=0#A!)*!,0f.)!60,;=!.)+).!_C;)!#0#)*,.!)*/.!;#(0(;,+)!+9+!.)/,!=+)8*.!)*!60,;=!01!.69+,!.)+).!/#!LE3!00200k100k400k300k600k700k500k10k20k40k30k60k50k70kRequired net AC charging s

271、tations2030 Electric vehicles in operationOUTSIDE OF CHART SCALE1+=/,-!f/)*!011%.)9)!(+9e/#A!09!+!A+9+A!)*!*0;./#A!=/h!/.!,.!01!+#!/#1,;#8!f*#!,00e/#A!+)!+!.)+)%,6,!6/f3!W;)!/#!,08+,!=+9e).!;#9.)+#/#A!f*9!=;,)/%1+=/,-!f,/#A.!+9!+#!f*9!)*!7:!0f#9.!/#!)*.!f,/#A.!(+9e!f*#!)*-!+9#c)!+)!*0=!f/,!C!89/)/8+

272、,!/#!)*!6,0(=#)!01!80#6#/#)!+#!.;11/8/#)!7:47!/#19+.)9;8);9!109!)*0.!f*0!8+#0)!8*+9A!+)!*0=!+.!9+/,-3!#$%&=()=I?I%&5$%&8-11*-%#6#+/-/76+-683%7J&1/&8&0&1/%12&*10&+673&%-/764+/-/&G1-0!7%6-%&-.7$/+H!./=(,!f+-!)0!;#9.)+#!)*!9!/#6.)=#)!/#!7:47!)*90;A*!LE!/.!)0!80=(+9!)*!9!/#19+.)9;8);9!)0!)*!60,;=!01!7:.

273、!/#!0(9+)/0#!_?/A;9!LL3!b(/#A!/#!=/#!)*!h(8)!#+)/0#+,!+69+A!01!XX!7:.!(9!56,!L!B!8*+9A9!/#!LE!f/)*!,08+,!+G;.)=#).!C+.!0#!(9!8+(/)+!=/,.!)9+6,!+#!*0;./#A!=/h!)*!*;A!9!L!.)+).!80=(+9!)0!)*+)!01!P9/09/)-!E!+#!Y!+9!8,+9,-!6/.;+,/g3!=+g/#A,-!?/A;9!LL!.*0f.!9A/0#.!01!B+,/109#/+!,/e!)*!W+-!9+!+#!40;)*9#!B

274、+,/109#/+!*+6!)*!.+=!_09!A9+)9!7:47!A90f)*!9+!_.!)*!#h)!.8)/0#!109!=09!/#109=+)/0#!0#!*0f!B+,/109#/+!/.!.;C/6/3!$#!?/A;9!LE!h(+#.!)*!,0f9!,1)!9+#)!01!?/A;9!LL!)0!/,;.)9+)!f*9!.0=!01!)*!.=+,9!9A/0#.!01!B+,/109#/+!C-!7:!60,;=!./)!9,+)/6!)0!)*!.=+,9!.)+).!/#!)*!#+)/0#3!N*!/.89(+#8-!)*90;A*0;)!B+,/109#/

275、+!/.!f/)*!40;)*9#!B+,/109#/+!1+9!+#!+C06!6#!)*!,+9A.)!01!)*!P9/09/)-!L!.)+).!f*/,!J9+)9!4+89+=#)0!.,0).!/#!+=0#A!=/;=%60,;=!P9/09/)-!E!+#!Y!.)+).!.;8*!+.!N#.!09!B0#8)/8;)3!S09)*9#!B+,/109#/+!0#!)*!0)*9!*+#!1+,.!+=0#A!)*!,0f.)!60,;=!.)+).!_C;)!#0#)*,.!)*/.!;#(0(;,+)!+9+!.)/,!=+)8*.!)*!60,;=!01!.69+,!

276、.)+).!/#!LE3!Required AC:212,9072030 EV:2,204,0691+=/,-!f/)*!011%.)9)!(+9e/#A!09!+!A+9+A!)*!*0;./#A!=/h!/.!,.!01!+#!/#1,;#8!f*#!,00e/#A!+)!+!.)+)%,6,!6/f3!W;)!/#!,08+,!=+9e).!;#9.)+#/#A!f*9!=;,)/%1+=/,-!f,/#A.!+9!+#!f*9!)*!7:!0f#9.!/#!)*.!f,/#A.!(+9e!f*#!)*-!+9#c)!+)!*0=!f/,!C!89/)/8+,!/#!)*!6,0(=#)

277、!01!80#6#/#)!+#!.;11/8/#)!7:47!/#19+.)9;8);9!109!)*0.!f*0!8+#0)!8*+9A!+)!*0=!+.!9+/,-3!#$%&=()=I?I%&5$%&8-11*-%#6#+/-/76+-683%7J&1/&8&0&1/%12&*10&+673&%-/764+/-/&G1-0!7%6-%&-.7$/+H!./=(,!f+-!)0!;#9.)+#!)*!9!/#6.)=#)!/#!7:47!)*90;A*!LE!/.!)0!80=(+9!)*!9!/#19+.)9;8);9!)0!)*!60,;=!01!7:.!/#!0(9+)/0#!_?

278、/A;9!LL3!b(/#A!/#!=/#!)*!h(8)!#+)/0#+,!+69+A!01!XX!7:.!(9!56,!L!B!8*+9A9!/#!LE!f/)*!,08+,!+G;.)=#).!C+.!0#!(9!8+(/)+!=/,.!)9+6,!+#!*0;./#A!=/h!)*!*;A!9!L!.)+).!80=(+9!)0!)*+)!01!P9/09/)-!E!+#!Y!+9!8,+9,-!6/.;+,/g3!=+g/#A,-!?/A;9!LL!.*0f.!9A/0#.!01!B+,/109#/+!,/e!)*!W+-!9+!+#!40;)*9#!B+,/109#/+!*+6!)

279、*!.+=!_09!A9+)9!7:47!A90f)*!9+!_.!)*!#h)!.8)/0#!109!=09!/#109=+)/0#!0#!*0f!B+,/109#/+!/.!.;C/6/3!$#!?/A;9!LE!h(+#.!)*!,0f9!,1)!9+#)!01!?/A;9!LL!)0!/,;.)9+)!f*9!.0=!01!)*!.=+,9!9A/0#.!01!B+,/109#/+!C-!7:!60,;=!./)!9,+)/6!)0!)*!.=+,9!.)+).!/#!)*!#+)/0#3!N*!/.89(+#8-!)*90;A*0;)!B+,/109#/+!/.!f/)*!40;)*

280、9#!B+,/109#/+!1+9!+#!+C06!6#!)*!,+9A.)!01!)*!P9/09/)-!L!.)+).!f*/,!J9+)9!4+89+=#)0!.,0).!/#!+=0#A!=/;=%60,;=!P9/09/)-!E!+#!Y!.)+).!.;8*!+.!N#.!09!B0#8)/8;)3!S09)*9#!B+,/109#/+!0#!)*!0)*9!*+#!1+,.!+=0#A!)*!,0f.)!60,;=!.)+).!_C;)!#0#)*,.!)*/.!;#(0(;,+)!+9+!.)/,!=+)8*.!)*!60,;=!01!.69+,!.)+).!/#!LE3!Re

281、quired AC:132,4132030 EV:1,400,5071+=/,-!f/)*!011%.)9)!(+9e/#A!09!+!A+9+A!)*!*0;./#A!=/h!/.!,.!01!+#!/#1,;#8!f*#!,00e/#A!+)!+!.)+)%,6,!6/f3!W;)!/#!,08+,!=+9e).!;#9.)+#/#A!f*9!=;,)/%1+=/,-!f,/#A.!+9!+#!f*9!)*!7:!0f#9.!/#!)*.!f,/#A.!(+9e!f*#!)*-!+9#c)!+)!*0=!f/,!C!89/)/8+,!/#!)*!6,0(=#)!01!80#6#/#)!+#

282、!.;11/8/#)!7:47!/#19+.)9;8);9!109!)*0.!f*0!8+#0)!8*+9A!+)!*0=!+.!9+/,-3!#$%&=()=I?I%&5$%&8-11*-%#6#+/-/76+-683%7J&1/&8&0&1/%12&*10&+673&%-/764+/-/&G1-0!7%6-%&-.7$/+H!./=(,!f+-!)0!;#9.)+#!)*!9!/#6.)=#)!/#!7:47!)*90;A*!LE!/.!)0!80=(+9!)*!9!/#19+.)9;8);9!)0!)*!60,;=!01!7:.!/#!0(9+)/0#!_?/A;9!LL3!b(/#A!

283、/#!=/#!)*!h(8)!#+)/0#+,!+69+A!01!XX!7:.!(9!56,!L!B!8*+9A9!/#!LE!f/)*!,08+,!+G;.)=#).!C+.!0#!(9!8+(/)+!=/,.!)9+6,!+#!*0;./#A!=/h!)*!*;A!9!L!.)+).!80=(+9!)0!)*+)!01!P9/09/)-!E!+#!Y!+9!8,+9,-!6/.;+,/g3!=+g/#A,-!?/A;9!LL!.*0f.!9A/0#.!01!B+,/109#/+!,/e!)*!W+-!9+!+#!40;)*9#!B+,/109#/+!*+6!)*!.+=!_09!A9+)9

284、!7:47!A90f)*!9+!_.!)*!#h)!.8)/0#!109!=09!/#109=+)/0#!0#!*0f!B+,/109#/+!/.!.;C/6/3!$#!?/A;9!LE!h(+#.!)*!,0f9!,1)!9+#)!01!?/A;9!LL!)0!/,;.)9+)!f*9!.0=!01!)*!.=+,9!9A/0#.!01!B+,/109#/+!C-!7:!60,;=!./)!9,+)/6!)0!)*!.=+,9!.)+).!/#!)*!#+)/0#3!N*!/.89(+#8-!)*90;A*0;)!B+,/109#/+!/.!f/)*!40;)*9#!B+,/109#/+!1

285、+9!+#!+C06!6#!)*!,+9A.)!01!)*!P9/09/)-!L!.)+).!f*/,!J9+)9!4+89+=#)0!.,0).!/#!+=0#A!=/;=%60,;=!P9/09/)-!E!+#!Y!.)+).!.;8*!+.!N#.!09!B0#8)/8;)3!S09)*9#!B+,/109#/+!0#!)*!0)*9!*+#!1+,.!+=0#A!)*!,0f.)!60,;=!.)+).!_C;)!#0#)*,.!)*/.!;#(0(;,+)!+9+!.)/,!=+)8*.!)*!60,;=!01!.69+,!.)+).!/#!LE3!Required AC:125,7

286、392030 EV:1,367,3701+=/,-!f/)*!011%.)9)!(+9e/#A!09!+!A+9+A!)*!*0;./#A!=/h!/.!,.!01!+#!/#1,;#8!f*#!,00e/#A!+)!+!.)+)%,6,!6/f3!W;)!/#!,08+,!=+9e).!;#9.)+#/#A!f*9!=;,)/%1+=/,-!f,/#A.!+9!+#!f*9!)*!7:!0f#9.!/#!)*.!f,/#A.!(+9e!f*#!)*-!+9#c)!+)!*0=!f/,!C!89/)/8+,!/#!)*!6,0(=#)!01!80#6#/#)!+#!.;11/8/#)!7:47

287、!/#19+.)9;8);9!109!)*0.!f*0!8+#0)!8*+9A!+)!*0=!+.!9+/,-3!#$%&=()=I?I%&5$%&8-11*-%#6#+/-/76+-683%7J&1/&8&0&1/%12&*10&+673&%-/764+/-/&G1-0!7%6-%&-.7$/+H!./=(,!f+-!)0!;#9.)+#!)*!9!/#6.)=#)!/#!7:47!)*90;A*!LE!/.!)0!80=(+9!)*!9!/#19+.)9;8);9!)0!)*!60,;=!01!7:.!/#!0(9+)/0#!_?/A;9!LL3!b(/#A!/#!=/#!)*!h(8)!

288、#+)/0#+,!+69+A!01!XX!7:.!(9!56,!L!B!8*+9A9!/#!LE!f/)*!,08+,!+G;.)=#).!C+.!0#!(9!8+(/)+!=/,.!)9+6,!+#!*0;./#A!=/h!)*!*;A!9!L!.)+).!80=(+9!)0!)*+)!01!P9/09/)-!E!+#!Y!+9!8,+9,-!6/.;+,/g3!=+g/#A,-!?/A;9!LL!.*0f.!9A/0#.!01!B+,/109#/+!,/e!)*!W+-!9+!+#!40;)*9#!B+,/109#/+!*+6!)*!.+=!_09!A9+)9!7:47!A90f)*!9+

289、!_.!)*!#h)!.8)/0#!109!=09!/#109=+)/0#!0#!*0f!B+,/109#/+!/.!.;C/6/3!$#!?/A;9!LE!h(+#.!)*!,0f9!,1)!9+#)!01!?/A;9!LL!)0!/,;.)9+)!f*9!.0=!01!)*!.=+,9!9A/0#.!01!B+,/109#/+!C-!7:!60,;=!./)!9,+)/6!)0!)*!.=+,9!.)+).!/#!)*!#+)/0#3!N*!/.89(+#8-!)*90;A*0;)!B+,/109#/+!/.!f/)*!40;)*9#!B+,/109#/+!1+9!+#!+C06!6#!)

290、*!,+9A.)!01!)*!P9/09/)-!L!.)+).!f*/,!J9+)9!4+89+=#)0!.,0).!/#!+=0#A!=/;=%60,;=!P9/09/)-!E!+#!Y!.)+).!.;8*!+.!N#.!09!B0#8)/8;)3!S09)*9#!B+,/109#/+!0#!)*!0)*9!*+#!1+,.!+=0#A!)*!,0f.)!60,;=!.)+).!_C;)!#0#)*,.!)*/.!;#(0(;,+)!+9+!.)/,!=+)8*.!)*!60,;=!01!.69+,!.)+).!/#!LE3!Required AC:115,5872030 EV:1,413

291、,6381+=/,-!f/)*!011%.)9)!(+9e/#A!09!+!A+9+A!)*!*0;./#A!=/h!/.!,.!01!+#!/#1,;#8!f*#!,00e/#A!+)!+!.)+)%,6,!6/f3!W;)!/#!,08+,!=+9e).!;#9.)+#/#A!f*9!=;,)/%1+=/,-!f,/#A.!+9!+#!f*9!)*!7:!0f#9.!/#!)*.!f,/#A.!(+9e!f*#!)*-!+9#c)!+)!*0=!f/,!C!89/)/8+,!/#!)*!6,0(=#)!01!80#6#/#)!+#!.;11/8/#)!7:47!/#19+.)9;8);9!

292、109!)*0.!f*0!8+#0)!8*+9A!+)!*0=!+.!9+/,-3!#$%&=()=I?I%&5$%&8-11*-%#6#+/-/76+-683%7J&1/&8&0&1/%12&*10&+673&%-/764+/-/&G1-0!7%6-%&-.7$/+H!./=(,!f+-!)0!;#9.)+#!)*!9!/#6.)=#)!/#!7:47!)*90;A*!LE!/.!)0!80=(+9!)*!9!/#19+.)9;8);9!)0!)*!60,;=!01!7:.!/#!0(9+)/0#!_?/A;9!LL3!b(/#A!/#!=/#!)*!h(8)!#+)/0#+,!+69+A!

293、01!XX!7:.!(9!56,!L!B!8*+9A9!/#!LE!f/)*!,08+,!+G;.)=#).!C+.!0#!(9!8+(/)+!=/,.!)9+6,!+#!*0;./#A!=/h!)*!*;A!9!L!.)+).!80=(+9!)0!)*+)!01!P9/09/)-!E!+#!Y!+9!8,+9,-!6/.;+,/g3!=+g/#A,-!?/A;9!LL!.*0f.!9A/0#.!01!B+,/109#/+!,/e!)*!W+-!9+!+#!40;)*9#!B+,/109#/+!*+6!)*!.+=!_09!A9+)9!7:47!A90f)*!9+!_.!)*!#h)!.8)/

294、0#!109!=09!/#109=+)/0#!0#!*0f!B+,/109#/+!/.!.;C/6/3!$#!?/A;9!LE!h(+#.!)*!,0f9!,1)!9+#)!01!?/A;9!LL!)0!/,;.)9+)!f*9!.0=!01!)*!.=+,9!9A/0#.!01!B+,/109#/+!C-!7:!60,;=!./)!9,+)/6!)0!)*!.=+,9!.)+).!/#!)*!#+)/0#3!N*!/.89(+#8-!)*90;A*0;)!B+,/109#/+!/.!f/)*!40;)*9#!B+,/109#/+!1+9!+#!+C06!6#!)*!,+9A.)!01!)*!

295、P9/09/)-!L!.)+).!f*/,!J9+)9!4+89+=#)0!.,0).!/#!+=0#A!=/;=%60,;=!P9/09/)-!E!+#!Y!.)+).!.;8*!+.!N#.!09!B0#8)/8;)3!S09)*9#!B+,/109#/+!0#!)*!0)*9!*+#!1+,.!+=0#A!)*!,0f.)!60,;=!.)+).!_C;)!#0#)*,.!)*/.!;#(0(;,+)!+9+!.)/,!=+)8*.!)*!60,;=!01!.69+,!.)+).!/#!LE3!Required AC:77,1202030 EV:1,118,911FIGURE 22:20

296、30 REQUIRED AC CHARGING STATIONS AND PROJECTED ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN OPERATION BY STATE(CALIFORNIA BREAKOUTS)FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST36Figure 23 expands the lower left quadrant of Figure 22 to illustrate where some of the smaller reg

297、ions of California by EV volume sit relative to the smaller states in the nation.The discrepancy throughout California is quite pronounced,with Southern California far and above even the largest of the Priority 2 states,while Greater Sacramento slots in among medium-volume Priority 3 and 4 states su

298、ch as Tennessee or Connecticut.Northern California on the other hand falls among the lowest volume states(but nonetheless,this unpopulated area still matches the volume of several states in 2030).!#$%&=)=I?I%&5$%&8-11*-%#6#+/-/76+-683%7J&1/&8&0&1/%12&*10&+673&%-/76407;:3%7%/4+/-/&+G1-0!7%6-%&-.7$/+H

299、!)1()1#1I#1(.$(2$34&%#)1%$5&61%4&$,-+4*$38-1+9&.#$3J+.71(.$K1#61.$%&-.7$/+7604!0051015202530354050k100k150k200k250kRequired net AC charging stations2021-2030 Electric vehicles in operation growth rate(growth in hundreds of percent)2030 PLUG-IN VIO FORECAST BY STATEFIGURE 25:2030 REQUIRED AC CHARGING

300、 STATIONS AND PROJECTED ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN OPERATION,CALIFORNIA BREAKOUTS ONLYFIGURE 24:CALIFORNIAS NINE MAJOR ECONOMIC REGIONSFIGURE 23:CALIFORNIAS NINE MAJOR ECONOMIC REGIONS As seen in Figure 24,Southern California and the Bay Area(highlighted in dark blue in Figure 24)are still as large as Tex

301、as and Florida in terms of projected 2030 EV volume and EVSE needs,requiring roughly 210,000 and 140,000 AC chargers respectively by 2030.Northern CaliforniaSouthern CaliforniaSouthern BorderCentral CoastSan Joaquin ValleyBay AreaNorthern Sacramento ValleyGreater SacramentoCentral SierraFUELS INSTIT

302、UTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST38IDEAL FORECAST ELECTRIC VEHICLE TO ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT RATIOS IN 2030The recommended EV-to-EVSE ratio in 2030 varies widely by state and compared to what we see today.California should have a much lower r

303、atio to support true mainstream adoption of EVs and the ultimate push toward a pure electric future.Given that the large majority of EVs currently purchased are additions to the garage and that the EV market primarily sits in a premium segment,the need for out-of-home charging is likely far less for

304、 the average consumer today than it will be in the future.When the day comes that the typical EV consumer is a mass-market car buyer with no ICE vehicle in the garage for longer journeys or lives in an apartment complex with no dedicated at-home EVSE,the need for charging throughout the day publicly

305、 and semi-publicly will become of more paramount importance.Figure 26 details how the forecast should evolve in each of the top 15 states and nationally.Overall,the 2030 ideal number of EVs to EVSE nationally is about 10.4 to 1 public/semi-public EVSE.This ideal figure would ensure that all markets

306、across the whole of the U.S.do not experience infrastructure congestion and that EVSE is available to consumers across the common-place use of their vehicle.STATEELECTRIC VEHICLES IN OPERATIONAC REQUIREDDC REQUIREDAC RATIODC RATIOOVERALL RATIOCalifornia4,518,839455,91524,2169.9186.69.4Florida1,413,6

307、38120,1536,38211.8221.511.2Texas1,367,370129,1966,86210.6199.310.0New York1,118,91183,0654,41213.5253.612.8New Jersey690,69974,4263,9539.3174.78.8Illinois585,42549,0722,60611.9224.611.3Pennsylvania577,49244,0722,34113.1246.712.4Michigan490,82446,5482,47210.5198.510.0Ohio474,60442,6192,26411.1209.710

308、.6Washington465,58633,0791,75714.1265.013.4Georgia439,41044,8142,3809.8184.69.3North Carolina411,96036,1841,92211.4214.410.8Massachusetts408,62054,1152,8747.6142.27.2Arizona393,97327,3801,45414.4270.913.7Virginia378,51734,4141,82811.0207.110.4 Top 15 13,735,8701,275,05067,72410.77202.810.2 National

309、18,149,3601,649,94287,63611.00207.110.4FIGURE 26:2030 U.S.ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN OPERATION AND ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT RATIO FORECAST,TOP 15 STATESFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST39Our approach to forecasting the mix of Level 2 and

310、Level 3 does not necessarily reflect how the market will ultimately play out but is intended to predict what is required if EVSE is deployed optimally based on EV vehicles in operation volumes regionally.In most cases,Level 2 AC charging is all that is required to service users in a day-to-day use w

311、hen they also have access to personal or shared residential charging.Level 3 DCFC EVSE should be deployed strategically,such as along highway routes and in locales with poor at-home charging adoption due to the housing mix.It is important to note that S&P Global Mobilitys assumptions for DCFC volume

312、s were modeled prior to the release of the NEVI(National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure)Program Formula in February 2022.Level 3 EVSE,of course,provides faster charging throughput,but this is not always of tangible benefit.According to the S&P Global Mobility mobility trace data,cars parked at shop

313、ping malls and other POIs have a higher likelihood of a 1-4 hour dwell time,where having more Level 2 EVSE is generally better than having only a few Level 3 EVSE.Cars often remain parked in charging spots for longer than needed in these environments,so why bother deploying an EVSE geared to high ve

314、hicle turnover when the investment can be better spent on being able to serve a higher concurrent volume of vehicles.Given that the large majority of EVs currently purchased are additions to the garage and that the EV market primarily sits in a premium segment,the need for out-of-home charging is li

315、kely far less for the average consumer today than it will be in the future.FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECASTFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST40In most cases,Level 2 AC charging is al

316、l that is required to service users in a day-to-day use when they also have access to personal or shared residential charging.Level 3 DCFC EVSE should be deployed strategically,such as along highway routes and in locales with poor at-home charging adoption due to the housing mix.41FUELS INSTITUTE|EV

317、C|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECASTSELECT METRO-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT FORECASTINGFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECASTIt is important to view the EVSE forecasts on a micro-level of geograp

318、hy,because EVSE deployment is going to physically occur in the locales and municipalities where people live and work and not on a federal or even state level.To this point,this section provides a few samples for how EVSE forecasting will vary in different cities and core-based statistical areas(CBSA

319、s)in the U.S.This section will look deeper at Detroit,Michigan,DallasFort Worth,Texas,and Portland,Oregon,comparing how infrastructure looks today and how these cities should be addressing future charging demand and equity.FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT

320、DEMAND FORECAST42FIGURE 27:DETROIT,MICHIGAN:CHARGING DESERT IN THE CITYSCRUBBERSReports estimate that the number of scrubbers by 2020 will be anywhere from 3%to 15%of marine vessels.Current estimates of switch volumes from high sulfur fuel to LNG in 2020 are anywhere between 1.9%and 7%.SLOW STEAM10%

321、reduction in speed drops fuel consump-tion by 25%;and reducing speed by a few knots can reduce fuel consump-tion between 25%and 50%.25%LNG1.9%-7%3%-15%15%of EV buyersare African American and Hispanic vs 25%total industryLEVEL 2 LEVEL 3RATIO*/A*9!,/e,/*00!01!+!X%Y!*0;9!f,!)/=!f*9!*+6/#A!=09!56,!L!7:4

322、7!/.!A#9+,-!C)9!)*+#!*+6/#A!0#,-!+!1f!56,!E!7:473!B+9.!01)#!9=+/#!(+9e!/#!8*+9A/#A!.(0).!109!,0#A9!)*+#!#!/#!)*.!#6/90#=#).!.0!f*-!C0)*9!(,0-/#A!+#!7:47!A+9!)0!*/A*!6*/8,!);9#069!f*#!)*!/#6.)=#)!8+#!C!C)9!.(#)!0#!C/#A!+C,!)0!.96!+!*/A*9!80#8;99#)!60,;=!01!6*/8,.3!/.8.4&!6.&%7I(,0-=#)!/.!A0/#A!)0!(*-

323、./8+,-!088;9!/#!)*!,08+,.!+#!=;#/8/(+,/)/.!f*9!(0(,!,/6!+#!f09e!j!+#!#0)!0#!+!19+,!09!6#!.)+)!,6,3!N0!)*/.!(0/#)!)*/.!.8)/0#!(906/.!+!1f!.+=(,.!109!*0f!7:47!1098+.)/#A!f/,!6+9-!/#!/119#)!8/)/.!+#!809%C+.!.)+)/.)/8+,!+9+.!_BW4.!/#!)*!2343!N*/.!.8)/0#!f/,!,00e!(9!+)!&)90/)!I/8*/A+#!&+,+.j?09)!T09)*!Nh

324、+.!+#!P09),+#!F9A0#!80=(+9/#A!*0f!/#19+.)9;8);9!,00e.!)0+-!+#!*0f!)*.!8/)/.!.*0;,!C!+9./#A!1;);9!8*+9A/#A!=+#!+#!;/)-3!7&$,#-/*O$P$.8+(!/#!LLX!96+,.!)*!.A9A+)/0#!01!7:!C;-9.!+#!/#+!/#!C,;!/#!?/A;9!L3!N*!+9+!.;990;#/#A!)*!0f#)0f#!01!&)90/)!/.!+!(+9)/8;,+9,-!(90#0;#8!h+=(,!C;)!./);+)/0#.!,/e!)*/.!h/.)

325、!)*90;A*0;)!)*!2343!6#!/#!B+,/109#/+!f*9!7:!+0()/0#!/.!=0.)!+6+#83!#$%&=D)8&/%7/B,1*#-6)1*-%#6#8&+&%/6/*&1/4!8809/#A!)0!$O4!I+9e/)!8;.)0=!+#+,-./.!Yi!01!7:!C;-9.!+9!+(+9)!01!*0;.*0,.!)*+)!=+e!=09!)*+#!oX!+!-+9!80=(+9!)0!YYi!109!)*!069+,!+;)0=0)/6!/#;.)9-!f*/8*!/.!01!80;9.!+!9.;,)!01!)*!,;h;9-%,+#/#A

326、!7:!=0,!,/#;(!)0+-3!?;9)*9=09!0#,-!XHi!01!)0+-c.!7:!C;-9.!+9!19/8+#!=9/8+#!09!O/.(+#/8!f*9+.!)*0.!A90;(.!=+e!;(!0#%;.)9-3!,!01!)*.!1+8)09.!*+6!9+=/1/8+)/0#.!109!f*9!+88./C,!+1109+C,!8*+9A/#A!.)+)/0#.!+9!/#.)+,3!N0!#.;9!)*!.;88.!01!=+.%=+9e)!7:.!+890.!)*!2343kf*/8*!f/,!90()/0#!190=!,0f9%/#80=!+#!=09!

327、/69.!C;-9.k)*!A+(.!/#!#)f09e!8069+A!f*/8*!h/.)!)0+-!=;.)!C!/#)/1/!+#!1/,!/#!)*!80=/#A!-+9.3!OVERLAY OF INCOME AND CHARGING POINTS15,350EVs in operation861|119Public EVSE16.0Aligned to national averageEV VEHICLES IN OPERATIONEXSISTINGLEVEL 2&3 PUBLICEVSEMOBILITY PATTERNS&PARKING HEAT MAPSLOCALIZED IN

328、CENTIVES OR REGULATORSDEMOGRAPHICAREA PROFILEHOUSINGMIXVEHICLE MILES TRAVELED(VMT)15%LESS LIFETIME GHG EMISSIONS THAN ICEVs74%of EV buyersare part of wealthy lifestage groups vs 40%for total industryThe EV landscape in 2021 reveals the segregation of EV buyers and inadequate infrastructure for vast

329、parts of the population,particularly in low-income areas(visualized in blue in Figure 27).The area surrounding the downtown of Detroit is a particularly pronounced example,but situations like this exist throughout the U.S.,even in California where EV adoption is most advanced.According to S&P Global

330、 Mobility custom analysis,74%of EV buyers are apart of households that make more than$100,000 a year,compared to 44%for the overall automotive industry,which is of course a result of the luxury-leaning EV model lineup today.Furthermore,only 15%of todays EV buyers are African American or Hispanic,whe

331、reas those groups make up one-quarter of the whole U.S.automotive ownership.All of these factors have ramifications for where accessible,affordable charging stations are installed.To ensure the success of mass-market EVs across the U.S.which will require adoption from lower-income and more diverse b

332、uyersthe gaps in network coverage,which exist today,must be identified and filled in the coming years.CASE STUDY A Charging Desert in Detroit,MichiganFUELS INSTITUTE|EVC FUELS INSTITUTE|EVC|U.S.PUBLIC STATE-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUPPLY EQUIPMENT DEMAND FORECAST43Figure 28 illustrates that,by 2030,E

333、V VIO will reach a moderate density within the areas of Detroit with households whose self-reported income were in the lowest income bracket(avg.household income of$49K$/7641&6+$+/%-1/!?/A;9!LV!/,;.)9+).!)*+)!C-!LE!7:!:$F!f/,!9+8*!+!=09+)!#./)-!f/)*/#!)*!+9+.!01!&)90/)!f/)*!*0;.*0,.!f*0.!.,1%9(09)!/#80=!f9!/#!)*!,0f.)!/#80=!C9+8e)!_+6A3!*0;.*0,!/#80=!01!oYbp!+.!=+.%=+9e)!F7I.!90,!0;)!80#0=-%8,+.!0