《硅谷銀行（SVB）：2023年第一季度全球經濟報告（英文版）（32頁）.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《硅谷銀行（SVB）：2023年第一季度全球經濟報告（英文版）（32頁）.pdf（32頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、1st Quarter 2023SVB Asset Management views on economic and market factors affecting global markets and business healthOverviewDomestic EconomyForeign ExchangeCentral Banks and Fiscal PolicyCorporate Bond MarketMarkets and PerformanceThe US dollar(USD)bull run takes a pause.The USD reversed sharply i

2、n Q4 as Fed rate hikes became priced in and global economic conditions improved.Further tightening of monetary policy by the Fed is likely.The Fed remains focused on lowering inflation to its target 2%rate,and ongoing increases to the fed funds rate,albeit less aggressive,are expected in the near te

3、rm.Corporate credit spreads tighten in Q4 2022.Indications that the pace of Fed policy tightening would slow along with signs of cooling inflation contributed to corporate credit generating positive returns and outperforming US Treasuries in Q4.Improvements in inflation have affected central banks e

4、xpectations.The US,UK and EUR have lower expectations for rates in 2023 and 2024,while Japan and China are expected to slowly raise rates over time.Global equity markets experience 2022 losses.Persistent inflation,rising interest rates,geopolitical events and slowing corporate profits all contribute

5、d to global equity shortfalls.The Federal Reserve has aggressively raised the fed funds rate.In 2022,the rate was increased by 425 basis points(bps)in response to high inflation data.The labor market remains solid,with the unemployment rate at a 50-year low while inflation remains elevated.Although

6、the Q1 and Q2 2022 gross domestic product(GDP)releases were negative,Q3 rebounded to+3.2%while the initial reading for Q4 GDP came in higher than expected at+2.9%.Front-end yields remain elevated and inverted relative to longer-term rates.Although the Fed is forecasting keeping rates restrictive for

7、 some time,bond yields in 2023 will reflect incoming data,most notably around inflation.Labor markets remain strong.The labor market has sustained economic growth and remains strong,although the pace of job growth may be moderating.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0223-0181AD-0228243Source:Bureau of Econo

8、mic Analysis,Congressional Budget Office and SVB Asset Management.Data as of 1/30/2023.2022 and 2023 data points are estimates.GDP values shown in graph are percent change vs.prior quarter on an annualized basis.Q4 2022 GDP read 2.9%(quarter-over-quarter QoQ,annualized rate)down slightly from 3.2%in

9、 Q3 due to rising interest rates and elevated inflation.For the full year 2021,GDP growth was 2.1%,with personal consumption and domestic investment heavily contributing.Growth is expected to slow down in 2023,with market consensus showing expectations for 0.1%for Q1 2023 and-0.6%for Q2 2023.QUARTER

10、LY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0223-0181AD-0228245-40.0-30.0-20.0-10.00.010.020.030.040.0Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2018Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2019Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 20

11、21Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Personal consumptionPrivate domestic investmentNet exportsGovernmentGDPSource:US Bureau of Labor Statistics,Bloomberg and SVB Asset Management.Data as of 1/30/2023.During the fourth quarter of 2022,the average number of jobs grew by approximately 242,000 per mont

12、h.The unemployment rate stayed historically low,ending the period at 3.5%,the same rate that it was before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US in February 2020.There continue to be more jobs available(10 million)than unemployed Americans(5 million),as companies continue to report difficulty

13、 in hiring despite rising wages.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0223-0181AD-0228246-25-20-15-10-505202020212022Percent0.02.55.07.510.012.515.0202020212022Percent02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000012345678Thousands-PersonsPercentHire RateQuit RateJob Openings RateJob Openings(RHS)Source:Bloomberg and

14、 SVB Asset Management.Data as of 1/30/2023.Consumption for Q4 2022 increased 2.1%from the prior period and increased 4.4%on a year-over-year(YoY)basis.Market expectations are for personal consumption to moderate to 0.8%in Q1 2023.Retail sales excluding vehicles rose 6.1%on a YoY basis at the end of

15、December 2022,down from 18.9%in December 2021.Higher wages and savings rates should lead to continued consumer spending.The rotation from goods to services should also be in effect.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0223-0181AD-0228247020406080100120-40-30-20-1001020304050Household debt to disposable income

16、 ratioPersonal consumption(%)Personal consumptionHousehold debt to disposable income ratio 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25-100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800Vehicle sales(units in millions)Retail and food services sales($billions)Retail sales excluding vehiclesVehicle salesSource:Bloomberg,US Bureau of L

17、abor and Statistics and SVB Asset Management.Data as of 12/31/2022.*FED AIT is average inflation targeting.The CPI measures the weighted average price change in the prices paid by consumers for household goods and services.*Month over Month.Inflation has started to cool down with the December 2022 c

18、onsumer price index(CPI)YoY reaching 6.5%.Core personal consumption expenditures(PCE),the Feds preferred inflation indicator,rose 4.4%on a YoY basis,down from 5.2%in September 2022.In addition to market forecasts,the Fed continues to reiterate that it expects inflation to decline over the course of

19、2023.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0223-0181AD-0228248All itemsFoodFood at homeFood away from homeEnergyGasoline(all types)ElectricityNatural gas(piped)All items less food and energyCommodities less food and energyApparelNew vehiclesMedical care commoditiesServices less energy servicesShelterMedical ca

20、re servicesEducation and communicationDec-226.50%10.40%11.80%8.30%7.30%-1.50%14.30%19.30%5.70%2.10%2.90%5.90%3.20%7.00%7.50%4.10%0.70%Nov-227.10%10.60%12.00%8.50%13.10%10.10%13.70%15.50%6.00%3.70%3.60%7.20%3.10%6.80%7.10%4.40%0.70%Oct-227.70%10.90%12.40%8.60%17.60%17.50%14.10%20.00%6.30%5.10%4.10%8.

21、40%3.10%6.70%6.90%5.40%0.00%Sep-228.20%11.20%13.00%8.50%19.80%18.20%15.50%33.10%6.60%6.60%5.50%9.40%3.70%6.70%6.60%6.50%0.20%Aug-228.30%11.40%13.50%8.00%23.80%25.60%15.80%33.00%6.30%7.10%5.10%10.10%4.10%6.10%6.20%5.60%0.50%Jul-228.50%10.90%13.10%7.60%32.90%44.00%15.20%30.50%5.90%7.00%5.10%10.40%3.70

22、%5.50%5.70%5.10%0.50%Jun-229.10%10.40%12.20%7.70%41.60%59.90%13.70%38.40%5.90%7.20%5.20%11.40%3.20%5.50%5.60%4.80%0.80%May-228.60%10.10%11.90%7.40%34.60%48.70%12.00%30.20%6.00%8.50%5.00%12.60%2.40%5.20%5.50%4.00%0.80%Apr-228.30%9.40%10.80%7.20%30.30%43.60%11.00%22.70%6.20%9.70%5.40%13.20%2.10%4.90%5

23、.10%3.50%1.00%Mar-228.50%8.80%10.00%6.90%32.00%48.00%11.10%21.60%6.50%11.70%6.80%12.50%2.70%4.70%5.00%2.90%1.50%Feb-227.90%7.90%8.60%6.80%25.60%38.00%9.00%23.80%6.40%12.30%6.60%12.40%2.50%4.40%4.70%2.40%1.60%Jan-227.50%7.00%7.40%6.40%27.00%40.00%10.70%23.90%6.00%11.70%5.30%12.20%1.40%4.10%4.40%2.70%

24、1.60%Dec-217.00%6.30%6.50%6.00%29.30%49.60%6.30%24.10%5.50%10.70%5.80%11.80%0.40%3.70%4.10%2.50%1.60%Nov-216.80%6.10%6.40%5.80%33.30%58.10%6.50%25.10%4.90%9.40%5.00%11.10%0.20%3.40%3.80%2.10%1.70%Oct-216.20%5.30%5.40%5.30%30.00%49.60%6.50%28.10%4.60%8.40%4.30%9.80%-0.40%3.20%3.50%1.70%1.80%Sep-215.4

25、0%4.60%4.50%4.70%24.80%42.10%5.20%20.60%4.00%7.30%3.40%8.70%-1.60%2.90%3.20%0.90%1.70%Aug-215.30%3.70%3.00%4.70%25.00%42.70%5.20%21.10%4.00%7.70%4.20%7.60%-2.50%2.70%2.80%1.00%1.20%Jul-215.40%3.40%2.60%4.60%23.80%41.80%4.00%19.00%4.30%8.50%4.20%6.40%-2.10%2.90%2.80%0.80%1.10%Jun-215.40%2.40%0.90%4.2

26、0%24.50%45.10%3.80%15.60%4.50%8.70%4.90%5.30%-2.20%3.10%2.60%1.00%2.10%May-215.00%2.20%0.70%4.00%28.50%56.20%4.20%13.50%3.80%6.50%5.60%3.30%-1.90%2.90%2.20%1.50%1.90%Apr-214.20%2.40%1.20%3.80%25.10%49.60%3.60%12.10%3.00%4.40%1.90%2.00%-1.70%2.50%2.10%2.20%1.70%0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0Core PCEF

27、ED AIT*Average Hourly EarningsSource:Bloomberg and SVB Asset Management.Data as of 1/30/2023.*Federal Housing Finance Agency.*The Case-Shiller 20-City measures the prices of residential real estate in 20 major US metropolitan areas.Home sales have slowed significantly,while inventory has slightly in

28、creased.For 2023,the market will be focused on the impact that multiyear highs in mortgage rates could have on home sales.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0223-0181AD-0228249*0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0Home supply(months)Home sales(units in millions)Total sales(new and existi

29、ng)Existing home supply0501001502002503003504004502004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022$in thousandsMedian home priceFHFA purchase*Case-Shiller 20-City*Source:Bloomberg,Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD,2022)and BCI(indicator).Updated

30、1/27/2023.Heatmap colors are based on the indices and time periods shown and summarizes businesses plan for economic activities.For the Fed surveys,the number represents business sentiment and the higher number represents higher business sentiment.For ISM indexes,the neutral number is usually 50.50,

31、the economy is likely to expand;50,the economy is likely to contract.Business sentiment has declined over the past several quarters and dropped to below average in Q4 2022.Economic activity continued steadily throughout the fourth quarter.Institute for Supply Management(ISM)data remained in solid te

32、rritory,and companies continue to be impacted by supply-chain issues and geopolitical events.#0223-0181AD-0228241095969798991001011021032008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022US Business Consumer IndexAverageDallas Fed Manufacturing SurveyPhilly Fed Manufacturing S

33、urveyNew York Feds Empire Manufacturing SurveyKansas City Fed Manufacturing SurveyRichmond Fed Manufacturing SurveyISM Manufacturing PMI SAISM Non-ManufacturingDec-22-19.4-7.1-9.1-2.0-10.050.054.5Nov-22-14.4-15.54.5-2.0-9.049.055.5Oct-22-18.8-13.7-11.2-4.01.048.449.2Sep-22-17.2-9.9-1.51.00.050.956.7

34、Aug-22-12.96.2-31.33.0-8.052.856.9Jul-22-22.6-12.311.113.00.052.856.7Jun-22-17.7-2.8-1.211.0-9.053.156.0May-22-7.33.5-11.621.0-9.056.156.4Apr-221.113.124.622.07.055.957.5Mar-228.723.2-11.832.011.057.058.4Feb-2214.012.73.125.03.058.457.2Jan-222.020.8-0.723.06.057.660.4Dec-217.815.531.927.014.058.661.

35、7Nov-2111.541.430.925.014.060.867.6Oct-2114.425.319.831.012.060.466.6Sep-214.632.934.323.0-1.060.762.1Aug-219.019.718.327.014.059.661.7Jul-2127.327.343.027.024.060.064.0Jun-2131.131.417.428.027.061.161.2May-2135.732.724.328.021.061.963.9Apr-2138.145.626.330.017.061.063.0Mar-2128.951.817.426.017.064.

36、762.3Feb-2117.223.112.124.014.060.855.3Jan-217.026.53.517.014.058.758.73%3%7%7%-2%2%3%-5%6%1%3%9%13%8%13%6%11%3%2%-6%-8%-9%-9%-11%-11%-12%-13%-13%-14%-17%-17%-18%-18%-20%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%Brazilian RealMexican PesoSingapore DollarSwiss FrancIndian RupeeCanadian DollarChinese RenminbiColom

37、bian PesoAustralian DollarIsraeli ShekelTaiwanese DollarEuroSouth Korean WonBritish PoundNew Zealand DollarSwedish KronaJapanese YenQ1-Q3Q412Source:Bloomberg.Data as of 12/31/2022.The USD was strong through the first three quarters of 2022,but reversed sharply in Q4 as Fed rate hikes became priced i

38、n and equity markets recovered.Looking ahead,however,it is premature to call an end to the USD bull run.Two-way risk in currencies will persist as long as inflation uncertainty remains,and the ultimate impact on economic growth is still not known.The USD has the tendency to do well in times of finan

39、cial distress due to its flight-to-quality status.Intervention from developed and emerging central banks has helped lift currencies from stressed levels against the USD.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0223-0181AD-02282413Central banks have engineered demand slowdowns to manage down price pressures.Econom

40、ic contraction has arrived,but recessions are probable as tightening has gone for longer than many expected.Central banks were late to get started and had to play catch-up and they have operated under pressure not to be labeled complacent on inflation.Central banks continue to measure progress by tr

41、acking backward-looking metrics,and assumed the responsibility of undoing the excesses of the previous decades loose policies.The USD has been positively correlated to risk aversion in and around recessions going back 30 years.It has traded lower heading into the recession,likely on optimism that th

42、e recession will be brief up during the recession on flight-to-quality inflows;and then down heading out of the recession associated with a relief rally in risk assets.Analysis uses DXY Index to compute USD returns.Recession periods selected per the definition outlined by the National Bureau of Econ

43、omic Research(NBER).Recession startLength(months)12m before6m beforeDuring recession6m after12m after7/31/19908-10.6%-5.8%5.5%-2.3%-2.6%3/31/2001811.3%3.6%-1.1%-3.7%-8.4%12/31/200718-8.3%-6.4%4.5%-2.8%7.3%2/29/202022.1%-0.8%0.9%-5.0%-7.8%Average9.0-1.4%-2.3%2.5%-3.5%-2.9%Sources:Bloomberg and NBER.Q

44、UARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0223-0181AD-022824The end to Chinas zero-COVID policy and the reopening of its economy will result in a boost to global demand for goods,services,raw materials and commodities.On expectations of this trend to manifest over the coming quarters,the currencies of commodity-pro

45、ducing countries have outperformed so far in 2023.Most notably,the pesos of Colombia(key exports crude oil,coal,coffee)and Chile(key export copper)are leading the way,up roughly 10%and 6%respectively.0.981.001.021.041.061.081.101.121/5/20231/9/20231/13/20231/17/20231/21/2023Colombian PesoChilean Pes

46、oAustralian DollarBrazilian RealNew Zealand DollarCanadian DollarNorwegian Krona14All exchange rates vs.USD are normalized at 1.0 as of 1/05/2023.Source:Bloomberg.Data as of 1/05/2023.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0223-0181AD-022824The Fed slowed the pace of rate hikes as it allows the impact of 400 bp

47、s of higher yields to flow through the economy.Source:Bloomberg and SVB Asset Management.Data as of 12/31/2022.Q3 2020:The Fed announced it would aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2%“for some time.”Fed projections showed rates remaining near zero through 2023.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0223-

48、0181AD-02282416Q2 2021:The stronger recovery triggered the Fed to revise growth and inflation expectations.The dot plot was updated to reflect two potential rate hikes in 2023.Q1 2022:The Fed turned hawkish in an effort to slow persistently elevated inflation.Seven or more rate hikes along with bala

49、nce sheet reductions pushed interest rates to multiyear highs.Q3 2022:The Fed remains very hawkish with three consecutive 75 bps rate hikes in Q3 2022.Inflation stays elevated,and all Fed speak is unified in the message to raise rates until there is evidence inflation is heading toward the2%target.Q

50、2 2022:Inflation and deteriorating consumer confidence forced the Fed to hike 50 and 75 bps in May and June.The Fed warned that the likelihood of a soft landing would be challenging as growth slowed.0.000.250.500.751.001.251.501.752.002.252.502.753.003.253.503.754.004.254.504.755.00Jul-20Aug-20Sep-2

51、0Oct-20Nov-20Dec-20Jan-21Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Percent1-Year UST Yield2-Year UST YieldFed Funds MidpointQ4 2022:The Fed reduced the pace of rate hikes from 75 bps to 50 bps in December

52、,as inflation has shown signs of abating and the market expects a fairly stable fed funds rate in 2023.Economic Projections202220232024United StatesChange in real GDP0.5%0.5%1.6%Core PCE4.8%3.5%2.5%Unemployment rate3.7%4.6%4.6%United KingdomChange in real GDP0.2%(1.9%)(0.1%)CPI10.9%5.2%1.4%Unemploym

53、entrate3.7%4.9%5.9%EurozoneChange in real GDP3.4%0.5%1.9%CPI8.4%6.3%3.4%Unemploymentrate6.7%6.9%6.8%JapanChange in real GDP2.0%1.7%1.1%CPI3.0%1.7%1.9%UnemploymentrateNANANAChinaChange in real GDP3.0%5.0%5.0%CPI2.1%2.3%2.2%Unemploymentrate4.1%4.1%4.1%Recession predictions,slower global growth and per

54、sistent inflation push central banks to remain hawkish in their monetary policy.Source:Bloomberg.Data as of 12/31/2022.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0223-0181AD-02282417Source:Bloomberg.Data as of 12/31/2022.Improvements in inflation have pushed central bank rate expectations lower in 2023 and 2024 for

55、 the US,UK and EUR,while Japan and China are expected to slowly raise rates over time.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0223-0181AD-02282418-0.750.251.252.253.254.255.256.2503/30/202306/30/202309/29/202312/29/202303/28/202406/28/202409/30/202412/30/202403/31/2025Expected Central Bank Rate(%)USDEURGBPJPYCNY

56、Source:Bloomberg Barclays Indices.Data as of 12/30/2022.Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.New issue of corporate bonds was slightly lower in 2022 than the prior two years,which is expected due to increased funding costs.Duration decreased noticeably YoY.372.1508.3492.2658.4659.16

57、30.3855.9810.3857.01,062.71,084.11,136.7921.4993.41,661.41,310.71,154.30.0200.0400.0600.0800.01,000.01,200.01,400.01,600.01,800.020062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022$BillionsIndustrialUtilityFinancial$285.95$485.59$539.18$175.00$331.00$456.000.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.

58、0300.0350.0400.0450.0500.0550.0600.013yr+612yr15yr13yr+612yr15yr20212022$BillionsIndustrialFinancialUtility1%7%15%9%5%16%17%10%13%11%8%13%35%35%41%35%40%46%48%49%31%45%47%25%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%13yr+6-12yr1-5yr13yr+6-12yr1-5yr20212022AAAAAABBBQUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0223-0181AD-02282

59、420Source:Bloomberg.Data as of 12/30/2022.EBITDA Earnings before interest,taxes,depreciation and amortization.FCF Free cash flow.While credit metrics remained favorable in 2022 due to a stable debt balance and strong corporate earnings,leverage and debt coverage have started to normalize from 2021 l

60、evels.Shareholder buybacks tapered in early 2022 as companiesshifted from cash distribution to cash preservation amidst the economic slowdown.Meanwhile,dividends and capital expenditures remain elevated.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0223-0181AD-02282421-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%

61、0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.0FCF/DebtDebt/EBITDA(times)Debt/EBITDA(LHS)FCF/Debt020406080100120Share price($)DividendCapExBuybackSource:Bloomberg.Data as of 2/03/2023.The risk premium between US Treasuries and corporate bonds has tightened from the elevated levels in late 2022.SVB ASSET MANAGEMENT|#022

62、3-0181AD-02282422-15-55152535EnergyMaterialsIndustrialsConsumerDiscretionaryConsumerStaplesHealth CareInformationTechnologyTelecomServicesUtilitiesPercentDecember 2021December 20220100200300400500600700BPSOperating profitability,as measured by EBITDA margin,declined YoY for most sectors,with the exc

63、eption of the Energy sector,which benefited from rising energy prices.All returns above are on a total return basis.YTD 2022 returns are on an aggregate basis up to 12/31/2022.US Aggregate refers to Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index.US Treasuriesrefers to the US Treasury allocation of the Bloo

64、mberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index.US IG Corporate refers to the IG Corporate allocation of the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index.High Yield refers to the US Corporate High Yield Bloomberg Index.Crude Oil refers to the Spot West Texas Intermediate Crude OilBloomberg-sourced.S&P 500 refers to

65、the S&P 500 TotalReturn Index.Tech refers to the S&P Global1200 InformationTechnologyIndex.Biotech refers to the S&P BiotechnologySelect IndustryIndex.IPO Indexrefers to the RenaissanceIPO Index.Asset Class ReturnsSource:WSJ,S&P 500 Posts Worst First Half of Year Since 1970,12/31/2022.Bloomberg and

66、Bloomberg Barclays Indices.Past index performance is no guarantee of future results.It was a difficult year for equity and fixed income markets as sticky inflation,aggressive Fed rate hikes,the Russia/Ukraine war,and volatile economic data kept markets on edge,weighing on investors sentiment through

67、out 2022.Meanwhile,crude oil outperformed for the second consecutive year after demand rebounded from 2020.Biotech32.91%IPO Index54.33%Biotech43.24%Biotech13.09%Crude Oil45.03%Biotech43.85%US Treasury0.86%Tech45.97%IPO Index109.60%Crude Oil55.01%Crude Oil6.71%IPO Index17.86%Biotech48.20%Tech14.23%Te

68、ch3.23%High Yield17.13%Tech39.65%US Aggregate0.01%Crude Oil34.46%Biotech48.10%Tech28.73%High Yield-11.19%S&P 50016.00%S&P 50032.39%S&P 50013.69%S&P 5001.38%Tech12.27%IPO Index35.75%High Yield-2.08%IPO Index33.87%Tech42.64%S&P 50028.71%US Treasury-12.46%High Yield15.81%Tech23.66%US IG Corporate7.46%U

69、S Treasury0.84%S&P 50011.96%S&P 50021.83%US IG Corporate-2.51%Biotech32.34%S&P 50018.40%High Yield5.28%US Aggregate-13.01%Tech14.52%High Yield7.44%IPO Index7.17%US Aggregate0.55%US IG Corporate6.11%Crude Oil12.47%S&P 500-4.38%S&P 50031.49%US IG Corporate9.89%US IG Corporate-1.04%US IG Corporate-15.7

70、6%US IG Corporate9.82%Crude Oil7.19%US Aggregate5.97%US IG Corporate-0.68%US Aggregate2.65%High Yield7.50%Tech-6.02%US IG Corporate14.54%US Treasury8.00%US Aggregate-1.54%S&P 500-18.11%US Aggregate 4.22%US IG Corporate-1.53%US Treasury5.05%High Yield-4.47%US Treasury1.04%US IG Corporate6.42%Biotech-

71、14.99%High Yield14.32%US Aggregate7.51%US Treasury-2.32%Biotech-25.62%US Treasury1.99%US Aggregate-2.02%High Yield2.45%IPO Index-7.98%IPO Index-0.51%US Aggregate3.54%IPO Index-17.53%US Aggregate8.72%High Yield7.11%IPO Index-9.89%Tech-30.29%Crude Oil-7.09%US Treasury-2.75%Crude Oil-45.87%Crude Oil-30

72、.47%Biotech-15.61%US Treasury2.31%Crude Oil-24.84%US Treasury6.86%Crude Oil-20.54%Biotech-20.38%IPO Index-57.06%QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0223-0181AD-02282424Rising bond yields in 2022 pushed returns negative in global bond markets as central banks underestimated the inflationary pressures caused b

73、y historically tight labor markets,rising commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine,and COVID-19 lockdowns in China,disrupting global supply chains.25Sources:Bloomberg and ICE BofA Indices.As of 12/31/2022.Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.Past performance is not a guarantee

74、of future results.-18%-16%-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%ICE BofA US Corporate IndexICE BofA Global Broad Market IndexICE BofA US Broad Market IndexICE BofA US Inflation-Linked Treasury IndexICE BofA US High Yield IndexICE US Broad Municipal IndexICE BofA 1-3 Year US Treasury IndexICE BofA 0-3 Month US

75、 Treasury Bill Index0%1%2%3%4%5%6%January-20February-20March-20April-20May-20June-20July-20August-20September-20October-20November-20December-20January-21February-21March-21April-21May-21June-21July-21August-21September-21October-21November-21December-21January-22February-22March-22April-22May-22Jun

76、e-22July-22August-22September-22October-22November-22December-22Federal Funds Target Rate(Upper Bound)10-Year US Treasury2-Year US TreasuryQUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0223-0181AD-022824Unprecedentedmonetary policy tightening from the Fed has pushed all-in yields higher in 2022 for both global and dom

77、estic bonds to levels not seen since 2008-2009.Daily yields from 12/31/2021 to 12/31/2022.Sources:Bloomberg and ICE BofA indices.Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.*US Treasuries pertain to on-the-run sovereign 10-year secur

78、ities.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0223-0181AD-02282426-1.000.001.002.003.004.005.006.00USGermanyUKItalySpainJapanFranceCanadaYield(%)AverageCurrent0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.00USTreasuries*USAgenciesCorporatesUS MBSUS ABSUS CMBSYield(%)AverageCurrent0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.001-3 Year USTreas

79、uries1-3 Year USAgencies1-3 YearCorporates1 YearCorporatesAAA AssetBackedYield(%)AverageCurrentQUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0223-0181AD-02282427Percentages in table represent total return.Red cells indicate the lowest returns and green indicates the highest returns.Gray boxes indicate there were no se

80、curities within the specific duration range for the evaluation period.Credit spreads tightened across the last three months of 2022 on improved risk sentiment.Indications that the pace of Fed policy tightening wouldslow along with signs that elevated inflation was cooling contributed to corporate cr

81、editgenerating positive returns and outperforming US Treasuries in Q4.Duration0-0.250.25-0.5 0.5-1.01.0-1.51.5-2.02.0-2.52.5-3.03.0-4.04.0-5.05.0-6.06.0-7.07.0-8.08.0-9.0 9.0-10.010.0-11.011.0-12.0Over 12.0AAA1.16%1.05%0.84%0.82%0.77%0.97%1.15%1.83%1.61%3.21%0.80%2.51%3.42%3.60%3.61%4.17%3.18%AA10.9

82、1%0.65%0.70%0.90%1.01%1.09%1.76%2.37%2.45%3.06%3.98%5.02%3.08%3.06%AA21.03%1.10%0.90%0.92%0.77%1.12%0.92%1.53%1.82%2.65%1.84%2.66%5.93%3.68%4.14%3.10%2.67%AA31.06%1.00%0.92%0.81%0.98%1.40%1.45%1.82%2.14%2.69%3.65%3.27%3.69%5.84%4.79%4.59%4.39%A11.12%1.04%0.97%0.88%1.07%1.28%1.63%1.87%2.47%2.74%2.95%

83、3.26%3.80%4.34%4.50%4.85%3.67%A21.22%1.13%1.11%1.10%1.23%1.70%1.87%2.43%3.14%3.46%3.53%3.90%4.09%5.16%5.38%5.67%4.67%A31.16%1.18%1.05%1.09%1.05%1.58%1.94%2.42%3.30%3.54%3.48%3.88%4.42%5.31%5.45%6.65%5.08%BBB11.28%0.99%1.20%1.09%1.14%1.73%2.13%2.55%3.18%3.44%3.88%4.10%6.00%5.07%5.71%6.80%5.44%BBB21.2

84、0%1.34%1.05%1.21%1.18%1.64%2.25%2.61%3.32%3.94%4.28%4.54%5.30%7.09%7.86%7.61%5.97%BBB31.29%1.46%1.41%1.48%1.49%2.62%2.48%3.20%4.39%4.84%5.32%4.90%7.56%7.47%10.14%8.06%5.97%Duration0-0.250.25-0.5 0.5-1.01.0-1.51.5-2.02.0-2.52.5-3.03.0-4.04.0-5.05.0-6.06.0-7.07.0-8.08.0-9.0 9.0-10.010.0-11.011.0-12.0O

85、ver 12.0AAA0.91%0.89%0.80%0.66%0.60%0.86%1.11%1.31%1.34%1.34%1.16%1.08%0.92%0.27%0.33%-0.40%Sources:Bloomberg and ICE BofA Indices.Performance data as of 12/31/2022.Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.28Source:Bloomberg.Represents price return from 01/01/2022 to 12/31/2022.Indices

86、are unmanagedand cannot be invested in directly.Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.Global equity markets were down 20%at the end of 2022 the worst performance since 2008.It was a consistent theme for 2022,with high and persistent inflation,rising interest rates,the war in Ukraine

87、and slowing corporate profits all weighing on investors,with signs pointing to a likely recession in 2023.-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%Return(%)MSCI EMMSCI EAFES&P 500RUSSELL 2000PriceReturn2022MSCI EM-22.4%MSCI EAFE-16.8%S&P 500-19.4%Russell 2000-21.6%QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0223-0181AD-022824

88、29Source:Bloomberg.Represents total return of S&P 500 sectors for 2022.Sector weights as of 12/31/2022.Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.9.8%7.3%2.7%25.7%3.2%7.2%15.8%11.7%2.7%8.7%5.2%Index WeightUS equities generated posit

89、ive returns in Q4,as investors balanced ongoing caution from the Fed that the pace of rate hikes would slow with signs that inflation may be cooling.On top of that,especially strong corporate earnings in certain sectors in Q4 served as an additional factor.-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%Q4 2022 Return#0

90、223-0181AD-022824Head of SVB Asset MPortfolio MSenior Credit AInvestment AManaging DirectorHead of Portfolio MCredit AFixed Income TSpecial ContributorIvan Asensio,Ph.D.Head of FX Risk ASenior ManagerFixed Income TCredit APortfolio MManaging DirectorHead of Investment RSenior Portfolio MSenior Portf

91、olio MSenior Fixed Income TSenior Portfolio MPortfolio MSenior Portfolio MQUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0223-0181AD-02282430This material,including without limitation to the statistical information herein,is provided for informational purposes only.The material is based in part on information from thir

92、d-party sources that we believe to be reliable but which has not been independently verified by us,and,as such,we do not represent the information is accurate or complete.The information should not be viewed as tax,accounting,investment,legal or other advice,nor is it to be relied on in making an in

93、vestment or other decision.You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision.Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation,offer or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment,or to engage in any other transaction.Fo

94、reign exchange transactions can be highly risky,and losses may occur in short periods of time if there is an adverse movement of exchange rates.Exchange rates can be highly volatile and are impacted by numerous economic,political and social factors as well as supply and demand and governmental inter

95、vention,control and adjustments.Investments in financial instruments carry significant risk,including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.Before entering any foreign exchange transaction,you should obtain advice from your own tax,financial,legal,accounting,and other advisors and only

96、make investment decisions on the basis of your own objectives,experience and resources.Opinions expressed are our opinions as of the date of this content only.The material is based upon information that we consider reliable,but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete,and it should not be

97、 relied upon as such.SVB Private provides a full range of banking,brokerage,and investment management services through Silicon Valley Bank and SVB Investment Services,Inc.(formerly SVB Wealth Advisory).Silicon Valley Bank provides deposit and lending services and products.SVB Investment Services,Inc

98、.(member FINRA and SIPC;SEC-registered investment advisor)offers brokerage and investment management products and services,and is a wholly owned,non-bank subsidiary of Silicon Valley Bank.Silicon Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group(Nasdaq:SIVB)and a member of the Fed

99、eral Reserve System and FDIC.Bank loans are subject to credit and collateral approval.Financing available and varies by state.Restrictions may apply.Terms and conditions subject to change.NMLSR ID 442029.Neither SVB Investment Services,Inc.,Silicon Valley Bank nor its affiliates provide tax,legal or

100、 insurance advice.We can work with your third-party advisors on these topics.SVB Wealth LLC,an SEC-registered investment advisor,offers wealth management services and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Silicon Valley Bank.IRS Circular 230 Disclosure:SVB Investment Services,Inc.and its affiliates do not

101、 provide tax advice.Accordingly,any discussion of US tax matters contained herein(including any attachments)is not intended or written to be used,and cannot be used,in connection with the promotion,marketing or recommendation by anyone unaffiliated with SVB Private Bank of any of the matters address

102、ed herein or for the purpose of avoiding US tax-related penalties.QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0223-0181AD-02282431Views expressed are as of the date of this report and subject to change.This material,including without limitation the statistical information herein,is provided for informational purpose

103、s only.The material is based in part upon information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable,but which has not been independently verified by us and,as such,we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete.This information should not be viewed as tax,investment,legal

104、 or other advice,nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decision.You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision.Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation,offer or recommendation to acquire or dispose

105、of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.None of this material,nor its content,nor any copy of it,may be altered in any way,copied,transmitted or distributed to any other party,without the prior express written permission of SVB Asset Management.SVB Asset Management is an investment a

106、dviser registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC).Registration with the SEC does not in any way constitute an endorsement by the SEC of an investment advisers skill or expertise.Moreover,registration does not imply that a registered adviser has achieved a certain level of skill,c

107、ompetency,sophistication,expertise or training in providing advisory services to its clients.SVB Asset Management is a non-bank affiliate of Silicon Valley Bank.For institutional purposes only.Investment products and services offered by SVB Asset Management:Are not insured by the FDIC or anyother fe

108、deral government agencyAre not deposits of orguaranteed by a bankMay lose valueQUARTERLY ECONOMIC REPORT|#0223-0181AD-02282432 2023 SVB Financial Group.All rights reserved.SVB,SVB FINANCIAL GROUP,SILICON VALLEY BANK and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group(Nasdaq:SIVB),used under license.