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1、 November 2022 Economic and Market Report State of the EU auto industry First three quarters of 2022 www.acea.auto 1 Contents EU economic outlook.2 Passenger cars.4 Registrations.4 World.4 The European Union.6 Production.8 World.8 The European Union.11 Commercial vehicles.12 Registrations.12 The Eur

2、opean Union.12 Production outlook.14 World.14 COPYRIGHT NOTICE Reproduction of(parts of)this information or related documents is not permitted without the prior written consent of ACEA.Wherever reproduction is permitted,ACEA shall be referred to as source of the information.www.acea.auto 2 EU ECONOM

3、IC OUTLOOK Ongoing supply chain disruptions caused by the protracted conflict in Ukraine have raised inflation risks and reduced growth prospects for the European economy in the near-term.The conflict may also lead to a worsening of supply chain disruptions,particularly in the manufacturing sector,a

4、s Russia and Ukraine are key producers of neon gas,which is used in semiconductor production.According to the European Commissions latest forecast,real GDP growth in the European Union is now expected to decline from 5.4%in 2021 to 3.3%this year and 0.3%in 2023.With food and energy prices exerting c

5、onsiderable upward pressure,consumer price inflation in the European Union is forecast to exceed 9%in 2022.It is then expected to decline in 2023,although projected to remain high at 7%.On the bright side,solid labour market conditions and high household savings should help to moderate the impact of

6、 higher inflation on private consumption.Unemployment rates in the EU remain unusually low and are forecast to decline to a 6.2%historic low this year,and then increase only slightly to 6.5%in 2023.Table 1:Overview EU economic forecast 2021 2022 2023 Real GDP(%)(%)5.4 3.3 0.3 Inflation(%)2.9 9.3 7.0

7、 Unemployment rate(%)7.0 6.2 6.5 SOURCE:EUROPEAN COMMISSION ECONOMIC FORECASTS,AUTUMN 2022 www.acea.auto 3 Figure 1:EU GDP growth forecast for 2022|by country SOURCE:EUROPEAN COMMISSION ECONOMIC FORECAST,AUTUMN 2022 www.acea.auto 4 PASSENGER CARS REGISTRATIONS World Nine months into 2022,the global

8、car market remained vulnerable to ongoing supply chain pressures and rising geopolitical tensions.This caused a decline in global new car sales by 2.9%so far this year nearly 1.5 million units below the 2021 level,and more than 7.5 million units less than in 2019.European passenger car registrations

9、 fell by 15.4%over the first nine months of 2022,mainly because of the limited supply of vehicles due to semiconductor shortages.At the same time,the war in Ukraine and the emerging energy crisis has had a significant negative impact on car demand,especially in Eastern European countries,with the bi

10、ggest declines observed in those countries that are directly involved in the conflict,namely Ukraine(-65.3%)and Russia(-61.8%).Passenger car sales in North America continued to be affected by supply chain issues,which limited the availability of new vehicles.Over the first three quarters of 2022,reg

11、ional car sales declined by 13.3%,down approximately 1.5 million units from the same period the year before.The same trend was observed in the US,where sales volumes contracted by 14.3%during this nine-month period.Demand for new cars in South America remained stable at 2 million units during the fi

12、rst three quarters of 2022,despite a 3.8%drop in Brazilian sales,which account for more than half of total regional car sales alone.Japanese and South Korean passenger car sales declined by 8.7%and 7.5%respectively from January to September as shortages of semiconductors and other components continu

13、ed to impact production.The strong recovery observed in Chinese car demand from June this year was largely due to the Chinese governments decision to halve the purchase tax for new passenger vehicles,in order to boost sales after the disruptions of the AprilMay lockdowns.As a result,JanuarySeptember

14、 cumulative volumes in China increased by 8.2%to more than 15.3 million cars registered.The Chinese market now accounts for almost 32%of global passenger car sales.Indian sales over the first three quarters of 2022 remained strong as an accumulation of savings,combined with lower interest rates and

15、an increasing preference for personal mobility,convinced customers to buy a new car.As a result,new car registrations in India grew by 20.2%in JanuarySeptember 2022 to reach 2.8 million units.www.acea.auto 5 Table 2:World new passenger car registrations|by region Jan-Sep 20221 Jan-Sep 2021%change 22

16、/21%share 2022 EUROPE 9,389,481 11,098,502-15.4 19.5 European Union2 6,784,318 7,526,831-9.9 14.1 EFTA 278,429 318,732-12.6 0.6 United Kingdom 1,208,368 1,316,614-8.2 2.5 Russia 449,699 1,178,139-61.8 0.9 Turkey 396,054 434,800-8.9 0.8 Ukraine 27,046 78,053-65.3 0.1 Others:Europe3 245,567 245,333+0.

17、1 0.5 NORTH AMERICA4 9,497,214 10,954,518-13.3 19.8 of which the United States 7,989,413 9,318,552-14.3 16.6 SOUTH AMERICA 2,022,897 2,038,579-0.8 4.2 of which Brazil 1,113,122 1,156,818-3.8 2.3 ASIA 24,572,865 22,951,648+7.1 51.1 China 15,309,586 14,144,576+8.2 31.9 Japan 2,620,949 2,871,234-8.7 5.

18、5 India 2,819,761 2,345,917+20.2 5.9 South Korea 1,024,944 1,107,783-7.5 2.1 Others:Asia5 2,797,625 2,482,138+12.7 5.8 MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA 2,560,650 2,434,018+5.2 5.3 WORLD 48,043,107 49,477,265-2.9 100.0 SOURCE:ACEA,S&P GLOBAL MOBILITY 1 Provisional figures 2 Data for Malta not available 3 Includes

19、Belarus,Bosnia-Herzegovina,Kazakhstan,North Macedonia,Serbia and Uzbekistan 4 Based on production type 5 Includes Hong Kong,Taiwan and all the other South Asian countries,excluding India www.acea.auto 6 The European Union The European Union passenger car market posted its second consecutive monthly

20、increase in September,with a 9.6%uplift to 787,870 units,although this was largely driven by the low base of comparison from September the previous year.However,this helped to reduce the year-to-date decline to 9.9%,at 6.8 million units,compared to the 14.0%drop recorded in the first half of the yea

21、r.This trend was reflected in the performances of most countries,with all the regions major markets remaining in negative territory despite recent improvements.Italy saw the steepest decline(-16.3%),followed by France(11.8%),Germany(-7.4%)and Spain(-7.4%).So far in 2022,the EU car market has continu

22、ed to remain well below pre-pandemic levels with 3.1 million fewer cars registered compared to JanuarySeptember 2019 and it is expected to shrink again this year,slipping by 1%to 9.6 million units by the end of the year.Table 3:Top 4 New passenger car registrations in the EU Jan-Sep 2019 Jan-Sep 202

23、0 Jan-Sep 2021 Jan-Sep 2022%change 22/21 Germany 2,740,158 2,041,831 2,017,561 1,867,885-7.4 France 1,641,367 1,166,698 1,260,373 1,112,067-11.8 Italy 1,468,237 966,335 1,165,692 976,055-16.3 Spain 965,286 595,436 647,954 600,281-7.4 EUROPEAN UNION 9,908,370 7,057,927 7,526,831 6,784,318-9.9 SOURCE:

24、ACEA www.acea.auto 7 Figure 2:New passenger car registrations in the EU|12-month trend SOURCE:ACEA www.acea.auto 8 PRODUCTION World Passenger car production in Europe dropped by 2.4%in the first three quarters of 2022,while remaining positive in the rest of the worlds regions.The decline was largely

25、 due to the collapse of the Russian(-66.4%)and Ukrainian(-84.6%)markets,which had an impact on overall production volumes in the region.Despite continued supply chain and logistical issues,North American output increased by 11.8%during the first nine months of 2022 to nearly 8 million cars driven by

26、 robust demand for new vehicles in the US.South American production volumes maintained a positive trend from the second quarter onwards.This helped to improve the year-to-date performance,with roughly 1.6 million units produced from January to September 12.4%more than during the same period in 2021.

27、Nine months into 2022,passenger car production in Japan remained stagnant as the impact of the COVID Omicron variant significantly disrupted manufacturing activities,further aggravating ongoing semiconductor shortages.As a result,Japanese production in the first three quarters of the year dropped by

28、 2.1%year-on-year,despite the relatively low base in 2021.Chinese passenger car production rebounded strongly after manufacturing activity was heavily affected by lockdowns during the second quarter of the year.This was due to incentives designed to stimulate private auto consumption.As a result,16.

29、4 million cars were manufactured in China from January to September an increase of 15.1%compared to the same period in 2021.During the first three quarters of 2022,Indian car production increased by 21.4%to 3.2 million units.This was mainly due to previous years low base and a growing trend towards

30、personal mobility,which strengthened domestic demand.On a similar trend,Indonesias year-to-date passenger car production illustrated double-digit growth(+23.2%),largely driven by robust domestic market demand and strong exports.Passenger car production in the Middle East/Africa region was up by 27.8

31、%on a year-on-year basis,with most of the growth coming from Iran(+31.2%).Nearly 50 million passenger cars were manufactured globally during the first three quarters of 2022,up 9%compared to the same nine-month period in 2021.However,this was still around 5 million units below pre-pandemic levels in

32、 2019.www.acea.auto 9 Table 4:World passenger car production|by region Jan-Sep 20226 Jan-Sep 2021%change 22/21%share 2022 EUROPE 9,733,499 9,971,174 -2.4 19.5 European Union 7,965,864 7,530,082+5.8 16.0 United Kingdom 572,375 650,180-12.0 1.1 Russia 339,372 1,008,969-66.4 0.7 Turkey 572,543 572,279+

33、0.05 1.1 Ukraine 943 6,135-84.6 0.002 Others:Europe7 282,402 203,529+38.8 0.6 NORTH AMERICA 7,887,753 7,053,616+11.8 15.8 of which the United States 5,292,276 4,721,074+12.1 10.6 SOUTH AMERICA 1,589,386 1,413,611+12.4 3.2 of which Brazil 1,356,584 1,246,395+8.8 2.7 ASIA 29,092,398 26,072,832+11.6 58

34、.4 China 16,361,878 14,215,852+15.1 32.8 Japan 4,826,804 4,930,635-2.1 9.7 India 3,240,878 2,668,816+21.4 6.5 South Korea 2,480,809 2,368,284+4.8 5.0 Indonesia 741,325 601,914+23.2 1.5 Thailand 491,776 529,541-7.1 1.0 Others:Asia8 948,928 757,790+25.2 1.9 MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA 1,514,562 1,185,465+27.8

35、3.0 of which Iran 949,817 723,726+31.2 1.9 WORLD 49,817,598 45,696,698+9.0 100.0 SOURCE:S&P GLOBAL MOBILITY 6 Provisional figures 7 Includes Belarus,Kazakhstan,Serbia and Uzbekistan 8 Includes Taiwan,Australia,Malaysia,Pakistan,Philippines and Vietnam www.acea.auto 10 Figure 3:Top 10 world passenger

36、 car producers SOURCE:S&P GLOBAL MOBILITY www.acea.auto 11 The European Union During the first three quarters of 2022,nearly 8 million cars were manufactured in the European Union,5.8%more than during the same period in 2021.Although the supply of semiconductors remains significantly constrained,wid

37、er supply shortages could begin to ease in the final quarter of 2022 allowing production volumes to slowly recover.Among the key Western European producers,passenger car production in the first three quarters was up 9.1%in Germany,4.5%in Spain,8.4%in France,and 10.1%in Italy.Central Europe also prov

38、ided a strong boost,with significant gains seen in Romania(+19.3%)and the Czech Republic(+9.1%).Table 5:Top 10 passenger car producers in the EU Jan-Sep 2019 Jan-Sep 2020 Jan-Sep 2021 Jan-Sep 2022%change 22/21 Germany 3,437,164 2,311,981 2,210,025 2,411,981+9.1 Spain 1,631,679 1,182,381 1,216,373 1,

39、271,540+4.5 Czech Republic 1,043,090 789,720 825,978 901,030+9.1 Slovakia 817,593 656,539 729,180 724,297-0.7 France 1,234,917 584,050 640,107 693,890+8.4 Romania 354,812 305,073 315,115 376,047+19.3 Italy 448,417 290,161 326,669 359,661+10.1 Hungary 402,818 311,429 320,298 326,757+2.0 Belgium 185,8

40、49 160,809 159,660 183,565+15.0 Sweden 215,102 167,988 193,781 176,831-8.7 EUROPEAN UNION 10,743,307 7,362,002 7,530,082 7,965,864+5.8 SOURCE:S&P GLOBAL MOBILITY www.acea.auto 12 COMMERCIAL VEHICLES REGISTRATIONS The European Union Commercial vehicle registrations in the EU remained weak in the firs

41、t three quarters of 2022,with Septembers decline marking the fifteenth consecutive monthly decrease.Despite a strong rebound in truck registrations during August and September,year-to-date commercial vehicle sales contracted by 17.6%to 1.2 million units,dragged down by the negative performance in th

42、e van segment which accounts for the vast majority of commercial vehicle sales.This negative trend was reflected across individual countries,with most EU markets suffering steep falls during the nine-month period.Looking at the regions four largest markets,the strongest decline was recorded in Spain

43、 (-23.0%).Other key markets performed similarly,with double-digit reductions in France(-20.4%),Germany(-15.7%)and Italy(-11.0%).On a category basis,light commercial vehicles were hit hardest by the semiconductor shortage,which continued to impact vehicle availability.As a result,new van registration

44、s in the EU dropped by 21.2%to 944,509 units during the first nine months of the year.By contrast,the number of new trucks registered across the European Union grew by 1.5%,with 220,066 units sold from January to September,as gains recorded in August and September brought the cumulative total into p

45、ositive territory.EU registrations of new buses and coaches remained on a negative trajectory during the first three quarters of the year,apart from March(+21.6%)and May(+32.8%).As a result,sales volumes fell by 4.8%,with a total of 20,457 buses registered from January to September.Table 6:New comme

46、rcial vehicle registrations in the EU Jan-Sep 2019 Jan-Sep 2020 Jan-Sep 2021 Jan-Sep 2022%change 22/21 Vans9 1,308,920 1,009,786 1,199,268 944,509-21.2 Trucks10 260,833 175,793 216,864 220,066+1.5 Buses11 27,772 20,422 21,492 20,457-4.8 TOTAL 1,597,525 1,206,001 1,437,624 1,185,032-17.6 SOURCE:ACEA

47、9 Light commercial vehicles up to 3.5t 10 Medium and heavy commercial vehicles over 3.5t 11 Buses and coaches over 3.5t www.acea.auto 13 Figure 4:Top 4 New commercial vehicle and bus registrations in the EU SOURCE:ACEA www.acea.auto 14 PRODUCTION OUTLOOK World Commercial vehicle production in North

48、America is expected to reach roughly 4.6 million units in 2022 or 10.5%more compared to 2021 provided that supply constraints gradually ease.Chinese output was severely disrupted during the first half of 2022 as lockdowns impacted commercial vehicle supply and demand.As a result,the overall van,truc

49、k and bus assembly output for 2022(full-year)is projected to be down by 29%to 3.9 million units.European production output continued to be affected by the availability of semiconductors and other components.In addition,the Russia-Ukraine conflict had a significant impact on production,especially in

50、Eastern Europe.As a result,production in the region is expected to decrease by 1.2%to nearly 3.1 million commercial vehicles in 2022.After recording solid growth in 2021,South Asian production was expected to further increase in 2022 to reach 2.6 million units,primarily fuelled by India and Thailand

51、,the two largest producers of commercial vehicles in the region.Production in Japan and Korea remained under pressure owing to a decline in domestic demand.Full-year output is expected to decrease by 5.2%to 1.2 million units in 2022.In 2022,the total number of commercial vehicles manufactured in Sou

52、th America is expected to increase by 2.8%compared to 2021,reaching roughly 871,464 units,assuming ongoing supply constraints gradually ease.Van,truck and bus production in the Middle East/Africa region is estimated to increase by 5.2%over the course of the year,totalling 0.5 million units in 2022.w

53、ww.acea.auto 15 Figure 5:World commercial vehicle production12|by region SOURCE:S&P GLOBAL MOBILITY 12 2022 S&P Global Mobility forecast ABOUT THE EU AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY 13.0 million Europeans work in the auto industry(directly and indirectly),accounting for 7%of all EU jobs 11.5%of EU manufacturing

54、 jobs some 3.4 million are in the automotive sector Motor vehicles are responsible for 374.6 billion of tax revenue for governments across key European markets The automobile industry generates a trade surplus of 79.5 billion for the European Union The turnover generated by the auto industry represe

55、nts almost 8%of the EUs GDP Investing 58.8 billion in R&D per year,automotive is Europes largest private contributor to innovation,accounting for 32%of the EU total ACEA REPRESENTS EUROPES 16 MAJOR CAR,VAN,TRUCK AND BUS MANUFACTURERS ACEA European Automobile Manufacturers Association +32 2 732 55 50 infoacea.auto www.acea.auto