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1、March 2023REPORT RELEASEGlobal Investment Outlook 2023 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use 2 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.Contents3Executive summaryPortfolio priorities for a surprise-free 2023/244Macro outlook for the major count

2、riesU.S.:the labour demand/supply imbalance is supporting high wage growth,high core inflation,and resilient nominal spending growth Europe:energy and goods market imbalances have eased;labour market imbalances are a riskChina:the China reopening theme 20Portfolio prioritiesWill 2023/24 be more like

3、 2022 or the decade before it?Macro volatility remains an important theme for 2023/24;we believe this boosts the benefits from portfolio diversificationTaking advantage of downside risk hedging in an environment of high volatility should support strong return potential The return from skilled active

4、 management is likely 3 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.How can we deliver needed returns,whilst controlling the impacts from economic volatility?Portfolio priorities for a surprise-free 2023/24DiversifyThe exceptional returns from a mix of equities and bonds ov

5、er the decade to 2021 were driven by low macro volatility;economic imbalances suggest ongoing market volatilityDiversification is always a good idea and is an especially good idea nowDownside risk hedging at the right priceUnderstanding the range of outcomes is an important way to reduce uncertainty

6、;integrate real world scenario analysis into risk managementOur expectation of ongoing macro volatility in 2023/24 increases the value of tail risk hedgesOpportunities for alphaHigh macro volatility typically leads to high return differentiation across and within asset classesIn these conditions,the

7、 value of skilled active management is outsized our track record shows it can be foundBackgroundDemand and supply conditions in the major advanced economies remain out of balance;inflation,interest rates,and growth are likely to remain volatile in 2023/24.Asset market pricing implies a rapid fall in

8、 inflation to central bank targets,cuts in policy rates,and only a moderate slowdown in economic and corporate earnings growth.We think this understates the potential for higher than expected inflation,higher than expected interest rates,and/or lower than expected growth.We believe diversity with do

9、wnside protection and active management continues to be the best way to maximise the chance of investment 4 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.United States macro 5Our view is that the pathway back to balance is more likely to be volatile than smooth 2023 WTW.Propr

10、ietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.How to frame the outlook for the United StatesThe US economy the US labour market especially remains out of balance.The question investors must grapple with is“what is the pathway back to balance in 2023/24?”Will this be a period of high macro

11、volatility or a smooth rebalancing?We think there are three scenarios that define the range of likely economic conditions for the US:Scenario A:a smooth rebalancing Job openings and wage growth decline;inflation falls to close to Fed target by end-2023;interest rates peak in Q1 2023 and policy rates

12、 are cut gradually;growth slows moderately Scenario B:macro volatility Wages and inflation are more sticky and higher interest rates for longer are required,despite the negative impact on growthScenario C:major recession The size of monetary tightening causes a deep downturn;labour imbalances,inflat

13、ion,and interest rates fall more quickly Sources:WTWUnderstanding the range of US outcomes is an important way to reduce uncertainty.0246822 Q423 Q424 Q4%024622 Q423 Q424 Q4%-202422 Q423 Q424 Q4%A smooth rebalancingCPI inflation(YoY%)Fed Funds Rate(%)Real GDP growth(QoQ ann.)0246822 Q423 Q424 Q4%Mac

14、ro volatility024622 Q423 Q424 Q4%-202422 Q423 Q424 Q4%0246822 Q423 Q424 Q4%Major recession024622 Q423 Q424 Q4%-202422 Q423 Q424 Q4%6 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.The US labour market remains imbalancedLabour demand/supply imbalance is supporting high wage and

15、 nominal spending growthJob openings(demand)are around 2x the number of unemployed workers(supply),underpinning wage inflationHigher labour supply is unlikely to rebalance the market US labour participation has not recovered to pre-COVID levelsSources:St.Louis Fed,WTW.Past performance is not indicat

16、ive of future results.Demand for US workers is high and rising in recent months.US job openings and unemployed workers,thousandsSupply of US workers is likely to remain low.US labour force participation rate,%Sources:St.Louis Fed,WTW.Past performance is not indicative of future results.6062646668909

17、5000510152005,00010,00015,00020,00025,0000104071013161922Job openingsUnemployedBig gap more jobs than can be filledFall in the labour force due to early retirement and other factors;unlikely to be 7 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.US inflation is driven by labou

18、r imbalances and spending growth.US inflation measures,year-over-year%Sources:Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta,US Bureau of Labor Statistics,WTWUS core inflation may stay higher than expectedWhy?InflationThe impact of high post-Covid goods demand,supply-chain bottlenecks,and rising energy costs looks

19、 to be fadingHigh wage and nominal spending growth is supporting a shift to high demand for servicesRecent falls in headline inflation are mainly due to falls in cyclical goods and energy inflation;sticky inflation,e.g.,services prices,is yet to show a clear peakFederal Reserve reaction functionThe

20、Federal Reserves task is clear:slow the demand for labour,restore balance to the labour market,and core inflation will subside-2%0%2%4%6%8%8286909498020610141822Sticky InflationHeadline Inflation:CPI8 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.What level of US interest rat

21、es will slow core inflation?Perhaps the Federal Reserve has done“just enough”and inflation will subside smoothly with reasonable growth rates.Perhaps inflation will be sticky and higher interest rate increases are required despite the implications for growth.Perhaps it has alreadySources:St.Louis Fe

22、d,WTWSources:Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta,US Bureau of Economic Analysis,WTW 0%2%4%6%8%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%980104071013161922Real GDP growthWage growth03691204812162024283236Increase in Fed rate:months from start of tightening cycle The level of interest rates required to rebalance the economy is un

23、known.Fed Funds Rate,percentage point increaseMar-22Tightening cycles:Nov-54 to Dec-16(RHS)tightened too much,with the recent slowdown in growth building momentum towards a material economic and/or earnings contraction.Uncertainty is high;markets are pricing in the optimistic“just enough”outcomeSign

24、s of slowing US growth;wage growth adds to margin pressures.Year-over-year%9 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.US financial markets implicationsMarkets expect a rapid inflation reversal and Fed pivot;the margins for error are highMarkets expect a rapid normalisati

25、on in inflation and policy rates.US inflation and Federal Funds RateAnalyst earnings expectations for the next 12m have remained resilientUS large-cap company EPS in$Sources:Refinitiv Eikon,WTWSources:Refinitiv Eikon,WTWMarkets expect a smooth economic rebalancing in line with our Scenario AMonetary

26、 tightening typically leads to macro and earnings volatility through declining credit creation,consumption,investment,and profit margins especially in environments with high inflationWe think that ongoing macro volatility and sticky inflation(Scenario B)or a major economic contraction(Scenario C)are

27、 more likelyUS financial market implicationsExpect heightened asset volatility over 2023/24Diversification is an especially good idea nowThe return from diversifying active management is outsizedAdd exposure to high quality bonds,US inflation-linked bonds and/or US inflation especially05010015020025

28、0000204060810121416182022S&P 500 EPS 12 month forward Est.-1%1%3%5%7%9%1516171819202122232425262728US CPI,YoY%US policy rate,%10 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.Europe macro -15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2021222324GDP y/y,ppt-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2021222324GDP forecast ra

29、ngeHigher peak interest rate;growth contractionHigher gas pricesHigher US/ECB rates Embedded inflationMacro volatility11 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.Sources:Refinitiv Eikon,WTWThe outlook for Europe is two-sidedEnergy and goods imbalances have easedNatural g

30、as demand/supply pressures have easedConsumption has been lower than expected and supply of liquid natural gas higher than expected,leading to above average energy storage levelsEasing of supply chain bottlenecks has improved manufacturing in important industries,e.g.,autosEnergy and goods markets w

31、ill likely be less inflationary in the future but inflationary pressures are becoming more broad-basedLabour markets imbalances remainUnemployment rates are lowBusinesses and workers may get used to higher inflation and adjust their price and wage-setting accordinglyFinancial markets pricing a smoot

32、h rebalancingEuropean markets are pricing-in a quick fall in inflation and a shallower peak in interest rates;possible but less likely in our viewMarkets are pricing-in a rapid fall in inflation,a shallower peak rate,and only a slowing in growthTwo scenarios for European economic conditions.Eurozone

33、 real GDP,year-over-year%Shallower peak interest rate;smooth slowdown in growthLower gas pricesStable/lower US/ECB rates Softening inflationFiscal 12 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.European energy markets in 2023/24Gas stores in Europe are much better than expe

34、cted due to both lower consumption and high supply of liquid natural gasGas prices remain above their pre-conflict levels but have fallen significantly from their August 2022 highsSources:Refinitiv Eikon,WTWSources:Refinitiv Eikon,WTWNatural gas supply/demand balances and storage have improved signi

35、ficantly010020030040050060031-Jan31-Mar31-May31-Jul30-Sep30-Nov5y rangeAverageLast 12 months0501001502002503003502021222324Storage of natural gas is at its highest point in the last five-years.Terrawatts hour;aggregate for Belgium,France,Germany,NetherlandsMarkets expect the gas price to trade at 57

36、-64 over the next year.Dutch TTF natural gas price,EUR per Megawatt hour,1stmonth -6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%050709111315171921EZ core CPI,y/yEZ labour compensation per employee,y/y13Economic conditions in the Euro area have been more resilient than expected 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and

37、 WTW client use only.Sources:Refinitiv Eikon,Reuters,WTWGrowth in the Euro areaGDP has surprised to the upside;it grew in Q4 2022,contrary to consensus expectationsActivity has been supported by lower gas pricesChinas reopening should help it is the third largest export market after the US and the U

38、KThe ECB has voiced its concern over economic imbalances and their impact on prices outside energy marketsBusinesses and workers may get used to higher inflation and adjust their price and wage-setting accordinglyThe ECB may need to raise interest rates significantly into restrictive levels and stay

39、 there for a sufficiently long period Inflationary pressures are at risk of becoming more widespread.?14 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.UK macro volatility is likely to continue in 2023/24The UK labour market is imbalanced;low productivity growth limits the abi

40、lity of the supply-side to meet strong demandThe risks of monetary policy error either not bringing inflation down quickly enough or hitting growth too hard are highSources:Refinitiv Eikon,WTWUK experiencing the highest wage pressures in advanced economies.UK policy rate and 10-year bond yield have

41、risen sharply.Sources:Refinitiv Eikon,WTW-1%1%3%5%7%9%050709111315171921UK core CPI,y/yUK regular pay,private sector,3ma,y/y0%2%4%6%05070911131517192123Policy rate10yThe Bank of England faces a more difficult trade-off between growth and -1%3%7%11%20212223242526272815 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confid

42、ential.For WTW and WTW client use only.European rates implicationsEuro area:bond markets are pricing-in a rapid normalisation in inflationSources:Refinitiv Eikon,WTWThe Macro:Euro areaThe ECB has described its concern that inflation may stay above its 2%objectiveShort-term inflation is likely to be

43、higher than market expectationsThe priced-in path for ECB interest rates reflects our views United KingdomShort and intermediate-term inflation is likely to be higher than priced-inExpect heightened rate volatility in 2023/24Limited additional tightening priced-in for the UK relative to the Euro are

44、a UK:market expectations are for a similarly quick decline in UK inflationEurozone CPI,YoY%ECB policy rate,%UK RPI,YoY%BoE policy rate,%-1%4%9%14%16 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.China macro 17Growth was weak in 2022;well below the pre-covid trend 2023 WTW.Pro

45、prietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.Sources:Oxford Economics,WTWChina reopening themeSummaryChina is at an inflection point after the unwinding of its zero-COVID policyGrowth and policyThe easing of health-related policies means aggregate demand should recover strongly in 2023,

46、albeit after an initial negative economic impact associated with high COVID rates.There also appears to be a greater focus from policymakers on securing higher growth in 2023.Broader implicationsWhile this would benefit global demand,it may also increase the total demand for commodities,adding to in

47、flationary pressures in advanced economies.China real GDP is likely to accelerate in 2023.Index,end 2019=10080859095100105110115120201720182019202020212022?18 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.The implications of Chinas reopening for ChinaChinese household consump

48、tion was weak in 2022 well below its pre-covid trend.However,household saving rates are high,suggesting some pent-up demand for consumption over 2023.Manufacturing output was resilient in 2022,despite widespread mobility restrictions;scope for moderate production increases in 2023 Sources:National B

49、ureau of Statistics of China,WTWChina domestic growth indicators.Retail sales and manufacturing growth,year-over-year,%China residential property indicators.Year-over-year,%Sources:National Bureau of Statistics of China,WTW-20-10010203040Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Retail SalesIn

50、dustrial-10.0-7.2-15.0-24.3 10.5-30-20-1001020Investment in Real EstateFloor space under construction(Mn Sqm)Floor space completion(Mn Sqm)Floor space sold(Mn Sqm)Floor space for sales(Mn Sqm)Weakness in Chinas overindebted residential property market was also a major drag on growth in 2022;and will

51、 likely remain weak in 2023/24 as it rebalancesCPI inflation in China remains relatively low,which provides scope for an acceleration in domestic 19 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.IMF real GDP growth forecasts.Year-over-year,%Sources:IMF,WTWThe implications of

52、Chinas reopening for the worldWe believe Chinas growth is likely to increase significantly over 2023,in contrast to slowing growth in advanced economiesThe global implications of reopening will vary on the balance of Chinese growth:Reopening will support China production and ease supply chain issues

53、;this will put downward pressure on global goods inflationA pick-up in Chinese consumption will add to global demand,e.g.,for goods and through international tourism;this will put upward pressure on inflationIncreased travel and higher infrastructure spending will increase global demand and prices f

54、or commodities like oil and iron ore3.05.24.52.71.21.44.35.35.20123456202220232024ChinaAdvanced EconomiesEmerging and Developing AsiaHigher global demand;increasing travel;and higher commodity 20 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.Portfolio 21 2023 WTW.Proprietary

55、and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.How can we deliver needed returns,whilst controlling the impacts from economic volatility?Portfolio priorities for a surprise-free 2023/24DiversifyThe exceptional returns from a mix of equities and bonds over the decade to 2021 were driven by low macr

56、o volatility;economic imbalances suggest ongoing market volatilityDiversification is always a good idea and is an especially good idea nowDownside risk hedging at the right priceUnderstanding the range of outcomes is an important way to reduce uncertainty;integrate real world scenario analysis into

57、risk managementOur expectation of ongoing macro volatility in 2023/24 increases the value of tail risk hedgesOpportunities for alphaHigh macro volatility typically leads to high return differentiation across and within asset classesIn these conditions,the value of skilled active management is outsiz

58、ed our track record shows it can be foundBackgroundDemand and supply conditions in the major advanced economies remain out of balance;inflation,interest rates,and growth are likely to remain volatile in 2023/24.Asset market pricing implies a rapid fall in inflation to central bank targets,cuts in po

59、licy rates,and only a moderate slowdown in economic and corporate earnings growth.We think this understates the potential for higher than expected inflation,higher than expected interest rates,and/or lower than expected growth.We believe diversity with downside protection and active management conti

60、nues to be the best way to maximise the chance of investment 22 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.Will 2023/24 be more like 2022 or the decade before it?The path back to economic balance is likely to be volatileUS headline CPI inflation.Year-over-year,%Rolling 12-

61、month change in the US Federal Funds Rate.%-2261014196119711981199120012011202131/06/2022:9.1%-10-6-226101961197119811991200120112021Sources:Refinitiv Eikon,WTWSources:Refinitiv Eikon,WTWA high return from an equity-bond portfolio over the decade to 2021 was driven by low macro volatility low and st

62、able inflation,low and stable interest rates,high levels of global liquidity as major central banks printed money,and steady GDP growth rates across most advanced economies.These macro drivers lowered bond yields and risk premia,supporting returns from both bonds and equities.Economic conditions cha

63、nged abruptly in 2022 excess demand relative to supply caused high inflation,monetary policy has been tightened aggressively,central banks are withdrawing liquidity,and economic and corporate earnings growth has slowed.The size of these moves has been large.The major economies remain imbalanced;the

64、path back to balance is likely to be volatile;and portfolio responses need to 23 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.200.20.40.60.8186909498020610141822DiversifyMacro volatility remains an important theme for 2023/24,supporting portfolio diversificati

65、onAn equity-bond portfolio performed poorly in 2022 because inflation and real interest rates were higher than expected;this remains a material risk in 2023.Many investors could still benefit from diversifying equity risk.Simple ways of doing so include investing in real assets,alternative credit,an

66、d hedge funds.Sources:Refinitiv Eikon,FactSet,Robert Shiller,McCulloch,J.,and Kwon,H.,1993,WTWRolling 12-month nominal total return for a 60/40 portfolio.60%US and global equity/40%US intermediate bondsThe correlation between equities and bonds has turned positive.Rolling 12m correlation of daily gl

67、obal equity and global bond returnsSources:Refinitiv Eikon,FactSet,MSCI,FTSE Russell,WTWNote:The proxy for equities is the S&P 500 index(1947-1969)and the MSCI World Index(1970-2023);the proxy for US intermediate government bonds is the 10-year US Treasury bond;an assumed TER of 0.1%p.a.has been add

68、edValues may go down as well as up.Securities and derivatives trading in which the portfolio funds engage are speculative and involve a substantial risk of loss.Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.Note:The proxy for equities is the MSCI World Index;the proxy for global gov

69、ernment bonds is the Citi World Government Bond Index(USD)7-10yrs-30%-15%0%15%30%45%Define major risks,assess likelihood and exposure,contrast with market pricing,size,and implementA downside tail risk is an event that lies in the far left tail of the distribution of possible outcomes.Despite a tail

70、 risk having a low probability of occurring,if such an event does occur it can be highly impactful and costly.Downside risk hedging is the process of analysing which tail events you would like to immunise your portfolio against and adding exposures that will provide a payoff when such a tail event o

71、ccurs.1What is your ability to withstand an adverse outcome to any major risk?2What is your outlook for the drivers of these risks?Where are the key sensitivities or tipping points of these drivers?Integrate real world scenario analysis into risk management3Understand the attractiveness or cost of m

72、arket pricing of downside risk hedging4Execute positions that hedge specific risks assets,active/passive structures,incentives,benchmarking,liquidity,trading rulesTaking advantage of downside risk hedging in an environment of high volatility should support strong return potentialLosses 00.050.10.150

73、.20.250.30.350.40.450.5-4.5-3.5-2.5-1.5-0.50.51.52.53.54.5Gains Frequency of events The“tail”a low probability of big losses24 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.Downside risk hedging at the right priceWhat it is;how to develop a framework“Expected”returnsFat tail

74、distribution more likely given imbalancesNormal distributionFor illustrative purposes 25Broaden the investment opportunity set to manage uncertainty 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.Opportunities for alpha:hedge fundsPositioning for higher economic and policy dif

75、ferentiation in 2023/24In 2022,most economies tightened monetary policy aggressively in response to high inflation.The macro outlook for 2023/24 is highly uncertain,with higher variance across countries and within their capital markets.In these conditions,the return from skilled active management is

76、 outsized our track record shows it can be found.Multi-strategy hedge funds can:Take advantage of this macro divergence;Add downside protection to portfolios during equity falls.Multi-strategy hedge funds can provide a differentiated return profile in volatile macro environmentsRolling 12-month vola

77、tility of YoY US growth and core inflation(12mma)04812162001234567197019801990200020102020Volatility of US real GDP growth(RHS)Volatility of US core CPISources:Refinitiv Eikon,WTWNote:12mma is the 12-month moving average 26 2023 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.Higher

78、 return variation improves equity alpha opportunities.Dispersion of MSCI World index sector equity returns Sources:FactSet,MSCI,WTWOpportunities for alpha:equitiesMicro factors are becoming more important for stock returnsBetter,concentrated equity portfoliosDiversifying exposure to specific risk fa

79、ctors and the economic cycle is one thing,stock diversification is another.High macro and policy uncertainty typically drives greater variation in industry and stock returns due to the different directional impacts of policy.In the US and Europe,wage and financial tightening pressures will also incr

80、ease the importance of company-specific factors,e.g.,profit margins or leverage.Our outlook for lower average stock correlation and high volatility amplifies the gross potential alpha from concentrated high-conviction equity portfolios.-1-0.500.511.504060810121416182022Sector return dispersion(vs.20

81、y avg.)12m avg.Note:Dispersion of annual price returns for MSCI World sectors,on a rolling monthly basis;assumed TER of 0.1%p.a.Values may go down as well as up.Securities and derivatives trading in which the portfolio funds engage are speculative and involve a substantial risk of loss.Past performa

82、nce is not a reliable indicator of future WTW has prepared this material for general information purposes only and it should not be considered a substitute for specific professional advice.In particular,its contents are not intended by WTW to be construed as the provision of investment,legal,account

83、ing,tax or other professional advice or recommendations of any kind,or to form the basis of any decision to do or to refrain from doing anything.As such,this material should not be relied upon for investment or other financial decisions and no such decisions should be taken based on its contents wit

84、hout seeking specific advice.This material is based on information available to WTW at the date of this material and takes no account of developments after that date.In preparing this material we have relied upon data supplied to us or our affiliates by third parties.Whilst reasonable care has been

85、taken to gauge the reliability of this data,we provide no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of this data and WTW and its affiliates and their respective directors,officers and employees accept no responsibility and will not be liable for any errors,omissions or misrepresentations by any t

86、hird party in respect of such data.This material may incorporate information and data made available by certain third parties,including(but not limited to):Bloomberg L.P.;CRSP;MSCI;FactSet;FTSE;FTSE NAREIT;FTSE RAFI;Hedge Fund Research Inc.;ICE Benchmark Administration(LIBOR);JP Morgan;Markit Group

87、Limited;Russell;and,Standard&Poors Financial Services LLC(each a“Third Party”).Details of the disclaimers and/or attribution relating to each relevant Third Party can be found at this link https:/ material may not be reproduced or distributed to any other party,whether in whole or in part,without WT

88、Ws prior written permission,except as may be required by law.In the absence of our express written agreement to the contrary,WTW and its affiliates and their respective directors,officers and employees accept no responsibility and will not be liable for any consequences howsoever arising from any us

89、e of or reliance on this material or any of its contents.27Disclaimer 2022 WTW.Proprietary and confidential.For WTW and WTW client use only.About WTWAt WTW(NASDAQ:WTW),we provide data-driven,insight-led solutions in the areas of people,risk and capital.Leveraging the global view and local expertise

90、of our colleagues serving 140 countries and markets,we help you sharpen your strategy,enhance organizational resilience,motivate your workforce and maximise performance.Working shoulder to shoulder with you,we uncover opportunities for sustainable success and provide perspective that moves you.Learn more at 2023 WTW.All rights