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1、European EV Charging Infrastructure MasterplanMarch 2022Research WhitepaperWith contributions fromExecutive summary 7A.EV Charging Masterplan for EU-27 8 1.Introduction and methodology 8 2.Key insights 12B.Charging infrastructure 20 1.EV outlook 21 2.Charging infrastructure for PCs 22 3.Charging inf

2、rastructure for CVs 32 4.Required investment in charging infrastructure 38C.Electricity grid upgrades and energy supply 42 1.Electricity grid upgrades and investments 42 2.Renewable energy power generation and investments 49D.Key interventions 51 1.Consumer concerns around charging 51 2.Key interven

3、tions for accelerating charging infrastructure rollout 54E.Conclusion and outlook 65Appendix 67 1.Methodology for modelling charging infrastructure 67 2.Tailored methodology for PCs 68 3.Tailored methodology for CVs 68 4.EVCI and renewable energy investment assessment 71 5.TEN-T corridors charging i

4、nfrastructure density mapping 71Glossary 72Table of Contents3Exhibit 1:8 associations involved and 85+interviews conducted 10Exhibit 2:User segments,charging location,and technology for passenger cars (same view available for buses and trucks as well as LVCs in the appendix)12Exhibit 3:The Masterpla

5、n translates into a synced build-up of PC charging infrastructure,grid,and energy implications(1/4)13Exhibit 4:The Masterplan translates into a synced build-up of LCV charging infrastructure,grid,and energy implications(2/4)14Exhibit 5:The Masterplan translates into a synced build-up of trucks charg

6、ing infrastructure,grid,and energy implications(3/4)15Exhibit 6:The Masterplan translates into a synced build-up of buses charging infrastructure,grid,and energy implications(4/4)16Exhibit 7:Required investments in charging infrastructure are a fraction of total investment needs 17Exhibit 8:A nine-f

7、old acceleration in charging point installation speed is required to reach required charging points by 2030 18Exhibit 9:In 2021,largest EU countries lag behind required weekly rollout of charging points 19Exhibit 10:The model used has differing granularities for countries,regional archetypes,and hig

8、hway corridors 20Exhibit 11:The EUs 2030 CO2 reduction target translates into 58%PC EV sales and 42.8 million electric PC vehicles in the parc by 2030 22Exhibit 12:The demand-driving infrastructure rollout requires a rollout of 6.8 million public charging points by 2030 24Exhibit 13:EV to public cha

9、rge point ratio driven by EV penetration and user behavior 25Exhibit 14:Cities,towns,and rural areas have different concentration of charging points 26Exhibit 15:Passenger cars will need 184 fast chargers for every 100 km of road to charge on core TEN-T corridors by 2030 28Exhibit 16:The average of

10、184 charging points per 100 km for passenger cars on the TEN-T corridors in 2030 varies significantly across countries 29Exhibit 17:Six populations of user segments are used to define charging behaviors across archetypes 30Exhibit 18:Each user segment is defined by its share of charging (in percent

11、of energy charged)across charging locations 31Exhibit 19:Charging energy demand is split into charging locations and by charging speed 32Exhibit 20:Trucks and buses energy demand will surge to 26.1 TWh and 2.7 TWh in 2030 respectively,requiring 50,000 public charging stations 33List of Exhibits4Exhi

12、bit 21:An estimated 40,000 fast charging points are required in public (incl.highways)for trucks and buses 35Exhibit 22:Trucks and buses will require 51 fast chargers every 100 km of road to charge on core TEN-T corridors by 2030 36Exhibit 23:For trucks and buses,five use cases(with distinct annual

13、mileages and charging patterns)have been used for modelling charging infrastructure 37Exhibit 24:For LCVs,five use cases(with distinct annual mileages and charging patterns)have been used for modelling charging infrastructure 38Exhibit 25:Both public and nonpublic charging points will be necessary b

14、y 2030 to meet the EV uptake needs 39Exhibit 26:Total investments into private and public charging infrastructure for passenger cars and commercial vehicles will equate to 172 bn in the demand-driving-oriented pathway 40Exhibit 27:The per kW cost of installing chargers varies from 125 for AC 4-22 kW

15、 chargers to 260 for DC 1 MW chargers 41Exhibit 28:An extensive number of grid upgrades on the distribution network will be required 43Exhibit 29:41 bn DSO investments into upgrades for EV charging by 2030,10%of total investments 44Exhibit 30:Grid upgrade investments until 2030 equate to an average

16、cost of 1,000 per charging point 45Exhibit 31:Country differences regarding grid stability have been considered 46Exhibit 32:There is some evidence of correlation between the investments in grid upgrades and continuity of power supply 47Exhibit 33:Grid upgrade investments until 2030 vary highly by c

17、ountry 48Exhibit 34:Deployment of renewable power will require 69 bn investments by 2030 50Exhibit 35:Multiple consumer concerns around EVs exist,with the primary concerns being access to EV charging infrastructure,driving range,and high vehicle prices 51Exhibit 36:Public charging is associated with

18、 pain points attributed to charger localization,access,and charging experience 52Exhibit 37:Home charging is associated with pain points attributed to feasibility,installation,and charging experience 53Exhibit 38:Several stakeholders are taking action to address consumer pain points 54Exhibit 39:Eig

19、ht grid and charging infrastructure bottlenecks have been identified 555Exhibit 40:Five critical clusters of interventions to boost rollout of infrastructure have been identified 56Exhibit 41:Streamlining the infrastructure approval process can be achieved by following best practice examples 58Exhib

20、it 42:The EU DSO Entity is one example of cross-member collaboration to accelerate EVCI rollout 60Exhibit 43:The investments of charging points will average 2.7 k per EV,lower than subsidies in most countries 61Exhibit 44:The EIB has an extensive range of instruments to mobilize public and private s

21、ector investors,and fund projects of differing risk levels 62Exhibit 45:The EIB has contributed to financing e-mobility projects in Europe 63Exhibit 46:Various enablers can be used to accelerate charging infrastructure rollout 64Exhibit 47:A diverse set of stakeholders can contribute to the investme

22、nts required for the Masterplan 65Exhibit 48:EV Charging Master Plan model:granular overview 67Exhibit 49:User segments,charging location,and charging power for commercial vehicles:trucks and buses,assuming balanced CCS and MCS public chargers 69Exhibit 50:User segments,charging location,and chargin

23、g power for commercial vehicles:trucks and buses assuming MCS fast chargers only 70Exhibit 51:User segments,charging location,and technology for light commercial vehicles 706Executive SummaryEV Charging Masterplan for EU-27We developed an EV Charging Masterplan with input from 8 industry association

24、sThe masterplan translates into a synced buildup of EV rollout addressing charging infrastructure,grid,and energyCharging infrastructure6.8 mn public charging points are required by 2030 for consumer-driven EV adoption in the PC segment with a high share of AC slow charging,and 144 bn EVCI investmen

25、tsBalanced charger utilization and consumer adoption with a higher share of fast charging requires 2.9 mn public chargers by 2030,and 104 bn EVCI investmentsOn the core TEN-T corridors,184 charging points will be needed for every 100 km for passenger EVsTrucks will need 51 fast chargers every 100 km

26、 to charge on the core TEN-T corridors11 bn investment will be required for EV public charging infrastructure for LCVs and CVs until 2030Electricity grid upgrades and energy supplyGrid upgrades due to EVs will cost 41 bn by 2030 11%of total DSO investments into upgrades for electrification of buildi

27、ngs and mobility and the transition to fossil-free electricity generation by 2030Deployment of renewable power will cost 69 bn 18%of total renewable investments until 2030 to generate the additional electricity needed for EV charging with new green energy capacity In total up to 280 bn investments a

28、re necessary until 2030 in private(30%)and public(30%)charging infrastructure,grid upgrades(15%),and renewables(25%)Key interventionsOn average,up to 14,000 public charging points need to be installed per week,today,only 2,000 are installed per week,in balanced optimization 6,000 public chargers are

29、 required5 critical interventions are needed to accelerate charging infrastructure rollout:streamline the infrastructure approval process,define EU Member State and cross-country coordination bodies,implement smart incentive programs,facilitate access to financing,and ensure a wide rollout of smart

30、chargingPCsLCVs,trucks,and busesRange and charging remain key consumer concerns in the purchase of an EV,further consumer pain points along the charging experience have been identified and addressed With 55%CO2reduction(2021-30)for PCs and LCVs,and 30%(based on HDT regulations)for trucks and buses,E

31、V sales grow to 6.7 mn,1.0 mn,and 0.1 mn in 2030,respectivelyA balance of private and public investments is required to ensure fast build-up of charging infrastructure across Europe,especially for public on-street charging for EV owners without home chargers7A.EV Charging Masterplan for EU-27The EU

32、Commission has set ambitious CO2 targets for the transport sector.The EUs“Fit for 55 Package”published in July 2021 revealed its plans to reduce emissions by at least 55%by 2030(compared to 1990 levels),and to be the worlds first climate-neutral continent by 2050.All sectors of the economy are expec

33、ted to contribute to achieving these reductions,transport included.Transport is one of few sectors,where greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions have been rising since 1990,with the sector accounting for almost 20%of total EU GHG emissions.Understanding the transport sectors significant contribution to GHG emi

34、ssions,the EU Commission has reviewed the climate and energy legislations for road transport in 2021.By 2030,new passenger cars and trucks have to reduce their CO2 emissions by 55%compared to 2021.1 The current truck regulation requires a 30%emissions reduction by 2030 and will be reviewed in 2022.T

35、ogether,these targets need a significant share of new passenger car(PC)and commercial vehicle(CV)sales to be electric vehicles(EVs)by 2030.The uptake of EVs requires the build-up of an electric vehicle charging infrastructure in Europe.The automotive industry is of critical importance for the EU:acc

36、ounting for over 7%of the EUs GDP,providing jobs to 14.6 million Europeans,and currently changing due to such ambitious targets.With high economic and social value at stake,the automotive sector will be empowered to undergo structural shifts to low-emission technologies while maintaining its role as

37、 a global leader in clean mobility.1.Introduction and methodologyThe objective of the EV Charging Masterplan is to provide a neutral fact base how the EV infrastructure ecosystem should ramp-up to support the transition to e-mobility.The Masterplan is based on the proposed EU regulatory CO2 targets

38、for 2030 in the road transport sector,i.e.,55%for passenger cars(PCs)and 30%for trucks.The Masterplan comprises PCs and CVs and focuses on charging stations(both public and private or nonpublic),required electricity grid upgrades,and the build-out of renewable energy to supply EVs with“green”electri

39、city.The underlying vehicle market models consider emission improvements of combustion engine vehicles,hybrids,as well as fuel cell powertrains and provide a technology-neutral outlook of powertrains.Fuel cell electric vehicles,which are considered equally relevant to decarbonize the commercial tran

40、sport sector,are not in scope of this report.Similarly,the Masterplan acknowledges the potential to decarbonize the existing vehicle parc and use cases that are difficult to electrify through sustainable fuels,yet these are not in scope of the study as well.The complexity of decarbonizing transport

41、is high,also due to multiple complementary technologies that can be used to achieve zero-emission mobility.While passenger cars will quickly transition to battery electric vehicles(BEVs),with only a minor share of fuel cell electric vehicles(FCEVs)by 2030,the percentage of BEVs and FCEVs for trucks,

42、buses and light commercial vehicles(LCVs)will be more balanced,depending on the segment and use case.BEVs win for shorter distances and along predictable routes with access to charging,while for long-haul trucking also FCEVs play a role,especially for heavy payloads and long daily distances(not part

43、 of this report).In addition,sustainable fuels can help decarbonize the existing internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicle parc for PC and CV and replace fossil fuels for commercial use cases that are difficult to electrify in the long term.1 The overarching target of the EU“Fit for 55”proposal is to r

44、educe net CO2 emissions by 55%compared to 1990.Concerning the transportation sector,the proposal includes reducing average yearly emissions of all newly registered vehicles by 55%compared to 2021.8This report focuses on the EV Charging Masterplan for the EU-27,a masterplan that demonstrates how a sm

45、ooth transition to BEV mobilityfrom an electric vehicle driver point of viewcan be achieved.More specifically,its aim is two-fold.First,it provides transparency on the infrastructure and investment needs to reach EU“Fit for 55”CO2 reduction targets for road mobility.Second,it creates awareness of th

46、e factors that may slow down deployment and suggests interventions to accelerate the build-up of EV charging infrastructure.With few countries on track to deliver such targets,a significant ramp-up in the deployment of EV charging is required.In synching EV charging,grid expansion,and renewable ener

47、gy needs with CO2 targets and resulting EV sales and parc,the EV Charging Masterplan provides a holistic perspective across geographies(all EU-27 countries included)and vehicle types(encompassing PCs,LCVs,trucks,and buses).The Masterplan centers around the PC consumers and CV customers key concerns

48、for purchasing EVs:access to charging infrastructure and EV driving range.In order to facilitate a fast and smooth adoption of EVs,the demand-driving-oriented charging infrastructure pathway involves an accelerated built-out of charging infrastructure within this decade.The demand-driving-oriented p

49、athway relies on a dense build-up of slow public charging infrastructure in cities to ensure that each EV owner has close and convenient access to a public charger.As a result,the demand-driving-oriented pathway will not result in an investment and profit optimizing utilization of chargers.Therefore

50、,an alternative pathway,the utilization-oriented pathway,that balances the average network utilization of charging points and consumer-as well as customer needs was also developed.To achieve higher levels of utilization,the utilization-oriented pathway relies more on the build-up of fast charging in

51、frastructure,also in cities.Charging infrastructure can only be deployed successfully by adopting a cross-industry and cross-country approach.For this reason,eight industry associations from across the e-mobility landscape contributed to the EV Charging Masterplan,and McKinsey provided analytical su

52、pport.The eight associations include the European Automobile Manufacturers Association(ACEA)and the European Association of Automotive Suppliers(CLEPA),representing automotive original equipment manufacturers(OEMs)and suppliers;WindEurope and SolarPower Europe representing the energy generation sect

53、or;Eurelectric representing the wider electricity industry;ChargeUp Europe,representing charge-point operators;and FuelsEurope bringing in the perspective of alternative fuels.ACEA,WindEurope,SolarPower Europe,and Eurelectric contributed to the report in their respective area of expertise,while CLEP

54、A,ChargeUp Europe,and FuelsEurope only reviewed the report.Also,the Banks Innovation Finance Advisory Division has been consulted to inform selected parts of the report,notably on potential EIB instruments of relevance to finance-relevant investments.In addition to the input from each association,mo

55、re than 60 publications and over 85 interviews helped inform and refine the following insights(Exhibit 1).The report does not reflect the unique view of one association but rather the range of industry views with two potential pathways.9The Masterplan is derived from a granular bottom-up model that

56、calculates number of chargers,required capital investments into charging points,grid reinforcement,and new renewable energy sources(namely solar and wind)2 to meet the proposed EU CO2-reduction targets of 55%(PCs and LCVs)and 30%(trucks).An extract of the underlying model methodology is explained in

57、 Text box 1 and partly visualized in Exhibit 2.The complete explanation of the model can be found in the appendix.2 It must be noted that although nuclear can also be used to cater for increased energy needs,it was excluded from the analysis.Sources of insight8associations involved60+publications re

58、viewed50+external expert interviews20+internal expert interviews15+interviews with associationsExhibit 1:8 associations involved and 85+interviews conductedSource:EU EV Charging Masterplan10How is the total number of required charging points for PCs by2030 calculated?First,the required EV sales and

59、car population from 2020 to 2030are derived based on the CO2reduction target of 55%.Consideringthe current EV share,level of subsidies,and charging rollout,differentspeeds of EV uptake are modelled by country.Second,the EV car population is attributed to different categoriesacross three dimensions:-

60、Where the car is used,called regional archetype(eg,car-reliantcities or rural areas)-The use case of the vehicle,called vehicle segmentation(eg,private,corporate and government fleet,rental)-How the car is used/charged,called user segment(eg,EV ownerwith access to home charging,EV owner relying on s

61、treet andpublic charging)Third,the energy demand is calculated based on annual distance ofEVs,their efficiency and the segmentation in the previous step.Theenergy demand is then allocated to different charging locations(eg,multi-home,public fast off-highway).Fourth,the 9 charger types used in the mo

62、del,from AC 4-22 kW toDC 500+kW,are combined with the different charging locations,called the charging technology split.Then,for AC slow and DC fastcharging,anaveragenetworkchargingpointutilizationisassumed.In the last step,the energy demand needing to be charged isconverted to the required number o

63、f charging points for PCs usingthe charging technology split and assumed utilization.Exhibit 2 provides an overview of how user segments,charginglocation,and technology are combined in the model.A more detailed explanation of this and all other methodologies usedcan be found in the appendix.42.8 mn

64、EVs in all EU-27 countries by 203020%of private EV owners in cities have access to public charging only in 203070%public overnight charging of private EV owners with access to public charging only expected in 203080%of workplace charging points with AC 4-22 kW technology6.8 mn public charging points

65、 in demand-driving-oriented pathway required in EU-27 by 2030Exemplary resultMethodologyText box 1:Example of methodology used to calculate required number of charging points for PCs112.Key insights The EV Charging Masterplan for the EU-27 estimates that by 2030,approximately 280 billion need to be

66、invested in installing charging points(hardware and labor),upgrading the power grid,and building capacity for renewable energy production for EV charging.Of this total,approximately 185 billion can be attributed to PCs,50 billion to LCVs,and 45 billion to trucks and buses.In this analysis,both publi

67、c and nonpublic charging points have been taken into consideration.Across the EU,a public charging point is defined as a charging point with nondiscriminatory access.By this definition,charging points at supermarket parking lots or in openly accessible parking garages are included within public char

68、ging.A total investment of approximately 1,000 billion by 2050 in charging infrastructure(public and nonpublic),grid upgrades,and renewable energy sources are necessary to complete the transformation to electric road mobility in EU-27.According to the EV Charging Masterplan,approximately 30%of this

69、total capital expenditure would need to be invested in infrastructure to reduce CO2 emissions in road transport by 2030,although less than 20%of the car parc will be electric by 2030.Value in thousands of charging pointsLocationCharging technologyEU-27 demand-driving-oriented pathwayCorporate car EV

70、 ownerE-taxi driver1,196E-rental car driver2192,651Private EV owner:access to public charging only29,077Private EV owner:access to work charging1,083Private EV owner:access to home charging2,021AC slow L2:4-22 kw34,949DC 150 kwDC 25 kwDC 350 kwDC 50 kw373474172279Fleet hub99Multi-family home7,609Pub

71、lic fast highway167Public fast off-highway461Public overnight2,333Retail and destination(incl.public garages)3,845Single home20,887Work845User segmentSource:EU EV Charging MasterplanExhibit 2:User segments,charging location,and technology for passenger cars(same view available for buses and trucks a

72、s well as LVCs in the appendix)12Exhibit 3:The Masterplan translates into a synced build-up of PC charging infrastructure,grid,and energy implications(1/4)The Masterplan translates into a synced build-up of charging infrastructure,grid,and energy implicationsEV sales and parc for PCs252021203010.55.

73、034.73.515.68.042.82.96.795 g CO2/km6.30.820212543 g CO2/km20301.53.8BEVPHEVCO2PC sales,million vehiclesPC parc,million vehiclesEV charging infrastructureGrid implicationsEnergy implications11.0-2.420302.9-6.820210.2-0.42529.720212520301.913.32615145202125682030940113PublicNonpublicMillion public ch

74、arging pointsGrid upgrade investments,billionsEV charging energy demand,TWh30-70 bnInvestments until 203049 bnInvestments until 203030 bnInvestments until 2030-55%CO2 emission1.Split referred to demand-driving-oriented pathway TextSource:EU EV Charging Masterplan13Exhibit 4:The Masterplan translates

75、 into a synced build-up of LCV charging infrastructure,grid,and energy implications(2/4)EV sales and parc for LCVs0.10.920212520304.495 g CO2/km252030202143 g CO2/km0.10.41.0CO2BEVLCV sales,million vehiclesLCV parc,million vehiclesEV charging infrastructureGrid implicationsEnergy implications14-5 bn

76、Investments until 20308.9 bnInvestments until 20306.5 bnInvestments until 2030 20210.4-0.7250-0.0120300.1-1.32.90.42021256.520301820211203042504523PublicNonpublic-55%CO2 emissionMillion public charging pointsGrid upgrade investments,billionsEV charging energy demand,TWh1.Split referred to demand-dri

77、ving-oriented pathway Source:EU EV Charging Masterplan14Exhibit 5:The Masterplan translates into a synced build-up of trucks charging infra-structure,grid,and energy implications(3/4)EV sales and parc for trucks20210.2325203000.03Truck sales,million vehiclesTruck parc,million vehiclesEV charging inf

78、rastructureGrid implicationsEnergy implications203020212.20.3255.0203012140202113250426PublicNonpublic5 bnInvestments until 203010 bnInvestments until 20305 bnInvestments until 2030 250.0753 g CO2/tkm20302021037 g CO2/tkm0.02BEVCO2252021203001345-30%CO2 emissionsThousand public charging pointsGrid u

79、pgrade investments,billionsEV charging energy demand,TWhSource:EU EV Charging Masterplan15Exhibit 6:The Masterplan translates into a synced build-up of buses charging infra-structure,grid,and energy implications(4/4)EV sales and parc for buses2021250.05203000.01Bus sales,million vehiclesBus parc,mil

80、lion vehiclesEV charging infrastructureGrid implicationsEnergy implications20215.02520300.32.2012021203012533PublicNonpublic0.4 bnInvestments until 20301 bnInvestments until 20305 bnInvestments until 2030 20302520210.0100.01BEV4332021252030Thousand public charging pointsGrid upgrade investments,bill

81、ionsEV charging energy demand,TWhSource:EU EV Charging Masterplan16Although these investments are sizeable,they represent only a fraction of the total investments into comparable infrastructure projects(Exhibit 7).For instance,yearly EVCI investment for PCs and CVs is 16%of the estimated required in

82、vestment for 5G and glass fiber infrastructure in EU-27.Similarly,the required distribution grid upgrades for EVs are 11%of past annual distribution system operator(DSO)investments and deployment of renewable power.This is because EV charging accounts for 18%of the total renewable energy that is exp

83、ected to be installed until 2030.The investments require a balance of private and public investments,where public investments focus on regions and public chargers with initially low utilization before positive business cases are achieved.Private investments so far have focused on building out more p

84、rofitable fast DC charging infrastructure,while slow AC charging infrastructure has relied on public funding.Exhibit 7:Required investments in charging infrastructure are a fraction of total investment needsCharging infrastructure,annualized11.For annualized numbers,the total investment sum was divi

85、ded by the number of years the investment program runs(2021-30)Grid upgrade,annualized Renewable investment,annualizedComparison of infra-structure projects8 bn for public EV charging infrastructure incl.installation and hardware50 bn for full 5G and high-speed internet ramp-up across EU-27 from 202

86、1 to 2025 annually18%of 5G and high-speed internet investments in EU-274 bn for upgrades to distribution system work extensions and transformer upgrades36 bn average annual EU-27 investments in grid upgrades from 2021 to 203011%of yearly EU-27 grid investments 7 bn to meet increased e-mobility energ

87、y demand with renewables(solar,wind,hydro,and biomass)38 bn average annual EU-27 investments in renewable energy from 2021 to 203020%of total investments in RES for energy transitionSource:EU EV Charging Masterplan,ACEA,WindEurope,Eurelectric,European Telecommunications Network Operators Association

88、EU-27 demand-driving-oriented pathway17Achieving a 55%CO2 reduction for PCs and LCVs and a 30%CO2 reduction for trucks requires an EV parc share of more than 17%,13%,and 3.5%,respectively,by 2030.This translates to 42.8 million EVs(BEVs and PHEVs),4.4 million electric LCVs,and 0.3 million electric t

89、rucks and buses on the road by the end of the decade.A rapid EV Charging Infrastructure(EVCI)rollout is required for smooth customer adoption.The EV Charging Masterplan estimates that by 2030 a total of 6.8 million public chargers for PCs,0.7 million for LCVs,and 0.1 million for trucks and buses wou

90、ld need to be installed in the demand-driving-oriented pathway.To achieve this goal,deployment would have to increase from about 2,000 public charging points per week in 2021 to over 23,000 charging points per week in 2030.On average,14,000 public charging points would have to be deployed weekly bet

91、ween 2021 and 2030(Exhibit 8).For the utilization-oriented pathway,an average of 6,000 public charging points would need to be deployed weekly(approximately three times the current deployment rate).Overall,a quick acceleration of the rollout of charging stations is required.The current installation

92、rate of around 2,000 charging points per week is already 1.7 times below the weekly requirement and needs to increase even more each year.Exhibit 8:A nine-fold acceleration in charging point installation speed is required to reach required charging points by 20301.Required number of charging points

93、is derived from the EV Charging Infrastructure Masterplan2.470 weeks left until end of 2030 and 7.6 million public charging points to be installedSource:European Alternative Fuels Observatory,national transport and mobility organizations,EU EV Charging MasterplanCurrent vs required weekly public cha

94、rging point rollout,2021-30Number of public AC and DC charging points per week,thousands9xAverage weekly EVCI rollout acceleration needed by the mid-2020s to reach required number of public AC and DC charging points2 25051015202622202123242527282920309x1.7x100 public charging points needed per week

95、for commercial vehicles(1%)14,000 is the average no.of charging points needed per week until 20302,000 per week is the current rate of installa-tion of new charging pointsFast build-up of charging points to enable smooth EV penetrationEU-27 demand-driving-oriented pathway4xBuild-up of charging point

96、s for utilization-oriented pathway6,000per week for utilization-oriented pathwayDemand driving orientedUtilization oriented18It is interesting to note that of the 14,000 required chargers to be installed per week,EU-27 countries are,on average,currently installing at a rate that is 11%of this number

97、(see Exhibit 9).Thus,a nine-fold acceleration is needed.However,countries are expected to require differing degrees of acceleration,primarily due to EV market share and adoption outlook differences.Current and required rollout speeds are compared at a country level to understand these country-specif

98、ic rollout acceleration needs.The current percentage of the average required installation rate is used for the comparison.Using this methodology,Austria is currently closest to reaching the average required rollout speed,installing at a rate that is 30%of its required 344 chargers per week(Exhibit 9

99、).However,larger countries are installing at a rate that is less than 10%of their required number of charging points.Germany,for example,is installing 6%of its required 4,200 chargers per week.Exhibit 9:In 2021,largest EU countries lag behind required weekly rollout of charging points 1.Required num

100、ber of charging points is derived from the EV Charging Infrastructure Masterplan Source:European Alternative Fuels Observatory,national transport agencies,mobility organizations,EU EV Charging MasterplanCurrent vs required average weekly public charging point rollout,2021-30Share of required public

101、AC and DC charging points120%11-20%11%101Other26France148Italy111Austria64SwedenSpain242291881.616HungaryEU-27105Romania199BelgiumNetherlands404Germany9xAverage required charging point rollout/week(target 2021-30)Share of completion to targetStatus of required rollout speed in 202129.6%22.0%21.2%18.

102、4%14.6%13.3%13.3%10.6%10.0%5.8%9.8%11.5%9xRollout acceleration needed to stay on track for necessary public charging infrastructureEU-27 demand-driving-oriented pathway19EVCI needs can be determined in three levels of granularity(Exhibit 10):the first level of granularity is by country,the second is

103、 by regional archetype(cities,towns,and rural areas),and the third is by highways.Taking Germany as an example,the model can be used to determine charging infrastructure needs across the country,throughout German cities,towns,and rural areas,or even along Germanys core trans-European transport netwo

104、rk(TEN-T)highway corridors.This model forms the basis for the numbers presented in this report.B.Charging infrastructureExhibit 10:The model used has differing granularities for countries,regional archetypes,and highway corridorsFigures refer to EU-27 totals by 2030CVs and LCVs1PCsCharging point dis

105、tributionLowHigh5 EVs per public charging point in cities7 and 8 EVs per public charging point in towns and rural areas,respectively69 bn investments in public charging infrastructure until 2030184 fast charging points per 100 km on TEN-T core network(incl.9 corridors)6.8 mn public charging points29

106、.4 mn non-public charging points11 bn investments in public charging infrastructure until 203051 fast charging points per 100 km on TEN-T core network for trucks(incl.9 corridors)0.8 mn public charging points3.0 mn nonpublic charging points1.Incl.trucks,buses,and LCVsSource:EU EV Charging Masterplan

107、Regional archetypesHighwaysDemand-driving-oriented pathwayCountry level20This chapter is divided into four subsections:EV sales and parc penetration,PC infrastructure requirements,CV infrastructure requirements,and total investment needs.1.EV outlookTo achieve the“Fit for 55”target of CO2 reductions

108、 in road transport,both PCs and CVs will require a transition from ICE vehicles to zero-emission vehicles(BEVs,PHEVs during the transition,and FCEVs).For passenger cars and LCVs,the announced 55%reduction target for new cars by 2030 is incorporated and for HDT trucks the current 30%reduction target,

109、that will be revised this summer.Considering the current targets,the share of EVs among total PC and LCV sales is expected to rise above 50%by 2030 amounting to a BEV and PHEV parc of 47.5 million EVs on the road(Exhibit 11).This shift will grow the total EV(BEV and PHEV)PC and LCV parcs in 2030 to

110、42.8 million and 4.4 million,respectively.As for trucks and buses,BEVs will still account for less than half of the total sales in 2030,but their vehicle population(parc)will amount to 235,000 and 53,000 in 2030,respectively.3 3 In addition to the BEV and PHEV segments,the FCEV share in 2030 account

111、s for 360,000 PCs,500,000 LCVs,62,000 trucks,and 4,000 busesthe FCEV segment will not be discussed in this report.212.Charging infrastructure for PCsCharging infrastructure requirementsDifferent approaches to developing charging infrastructure can be taken to achieve the required EV parc targets.Mor

112、e specifically,two distinct pathways for the rollout of EVCI were developed,namely the demand-driving-oriented pathway and the utilization-oriented pathway(Exhibit 12).The two approaches differ on two key factors:the split between slow and fast public charging and the average network utilization of

113、charging points.Charging point utilization refers to the energy provided by the charging point,as a percentage of its total charging capacity,within a specific timeframe.Exhibit 11:The EUs 2030 CO2 reduction target translates into 58%PC EV sales and 42.8 mn electric PC vehicles in the parc by 20301.

114、BEVs and PHEVs only2.CO2reduction target:55%by 20303.CO2 reduction target:30%by 2030Source:EU EV Charging Masterplan40%20282022 202420%202620300%60%80%100%EV salesshare in 203058%50%40%20%EV parcshare 203017%15%10%5%3,50315,57543,129FCEVBEVPHEV020212025252030297639524,90257113Share of EV sales in EU

115、-271Share of total salesShare of EV parc in EU-27Number of vehicle population,thousands2332BEV and PHEV parc3.6 mn16.6 mn47.5 mnEV parc incl.FCEV3.6 mn16.6 mn48.4 mn22The demand-driving-oriented pathway is anchored in the minimal accepted average network utilization of charging points of 5%.It focus

116、es on quickly establishing a dense,slow AC charging infrastructure network to enable proximate and convenient consumer adoption and accelerate the transition to EVs.However,the low average network utilization in the demand-driving-oriented pathway is not economically sustainable in the long term,lim

117、iting investments from private charging point operators(CPOs).Therefore,a second pathway,the utilization-oriented pathway,was developed,using an average network utilization of 15%for DC fast charging,the rate currently observed by top-tier CPOs in Europe.In the utilization-oriented pathway,2.9 milli

118、on public charging points would be required by 2030,approximately 40%of the 6.8 million public charging points necessary in the demand-driving-oriented pathway.While the latter accelerates the installation of charging points by four to six years compared to the utilization-oriented pathway,it requir

119、es more financial support to install and operate the 6.8 million public charging points.The rollout investment gap is expected to amount to 40 billion by 2030 between the demand-driving and utilization-oriented pathway.Significant private investments have already been made into establishing todays f

120、ast charging infrastructure along main highways.Public investments are also essential to overcoming low utilization in regions that electrify slower and slow on-street charging to ensure the development of charging infrastructure across Europe and rural areas.Average network utilization of 15%is req

121、uired for economic viability in the medium to long term.In the EU,the industry is expected to converge toward even higher utilization in the next five to 15 years.Although the number of charging points in both pathways eventually converges,the earlier the charging infrastructure is in place,the more

122、 seamless the transition will be for consumers.A 2020 McKinsey EV Consumer survey shows that charging infrastructure remains a crucial bottleneck for consumer adoption;faster and earlier uptake of public charging infrastructure is fundamental.For this reason,the rollout of the EVCI proposed in the E

123、V Charging Masterplan will follow the demand-driving-oriented pathway.23Despite the single CO2-reduction target across EU-27 countries,cross-country differences are expected to impact charging point needs per country.The ratio of EVs per public charging point can be used to illustrate such differenc

124、es:while the ratio is expected to average seven in EU-27(Exhibit 13),the value ranges from six in Germany to eight in Poland in 2030 according to the Masterplan.The primary driver of such cross-country differences is the difference in EV drivers opportunities to install and use a personal charger at

125、 home.Exhibit 12:The demand-driving infrastructure rollout requires a rollout of 6.8 mn public charging points by 2030 5003020104060708090100EV parc and public charging points for demand-driving and utilization pathways20502040202522030112203502045345678910116.82.9Demand-driving-oriented pathwayUtil

126、ization-oriented pathwayDemand-driving-oriented pathway:smooth EV consumer adoption5-7 years(+29 mn nonpublic charging points)(+29 mn nonpublic charging points)Utilization-oriented pathway:balance of utilization and EV consumer adoptionExpected number of charging points at 80%+EV parc penetrationEV

127、PCs parc,percent of total Public charging points,millionsSource:EU EV Charging Masterplan24The detail of this analysis can be increased further by comparing the 2030 EV to public charging point ratio for the three geographical archetypes:expected to average five,seven,and eight,for cities,towns,and

128、rural areas,respectively.As for the former,this lowest ratio of five is driven by the lower opportunities in cities to install private charging points,thus obliging EV owners to rely more on public-charging infrastructure.While the previously mentioned ratios refer to EU-27 averages,cross-country di

129、fferences are expected.Taking Germany as an example(Exhibit 14),the ratio is expected to be four for large cities(such as Berlin,Munich,and Hamburg),seven for towns(for example,Kiel),and seven for rural areas.A contrary example is Poland,where cities such as Warsaw are expected to have six EVs per c

130、harging point,towns(for example,Bialystok)nine EVs per charging point,and ten EVs per charging point in rural areas.In the utilization-oriented pathway,the EV to public charger ratio is around two times higher than in the demand-driving-oriented pathway,at an average of 15 EVs per public charger.Exh

131、ibit 13:EV to public charging point ratio driven by EV penetration and user behaviorEVCI in 2030 by country,ordered by public EVCI Number of charging points,thousandsPCs EVCI network,country overview FranceGermany5,9075772,3875033,080Denmark1,329Italy1,747782 163BelgiumOthersSpain412Netherlands6291,

132、5693136868,841Sweden8711851,344480Austria1262,074Poland2,245Private chargersPublic chargersSource:EU EV Charging Masterplan6.8 mn public charging points 29.4 mnnonpublic charging points7 average EV/public EVCI EU-27 demand-driving-oriented pathwayEV to public charging point ratio Number of EVs per p

133、ublic charger6.0 6.6 5.3 7.3 5.6 4.8 7.0 6.7 6.4 8.3 7.314.1 15.5 12.3 17.2 12.8 11.4 16.6 16.2 16.0 20.6 17.6Demand-driving-oriented pathwayUtilization-oriented pathway 15average EV/public EVCI 25Exhibit 14:Cities,towns,and rural areas have different concentration of charging pointsNumber of chargi

134、ng points per archetypeGermany example2,3251,5536,091CitiesTowns and suburbs4,8912,102Rural areas2,499Share of population PercentShare of EV parcPercentEVs/charging point1312444856721207EV per charging point 203029CommentsGermany has the highest number of public charging infrastructures in towns and

135、 suburbs,followed by cities and rural areasIn cities,there will be 1 public charger for every 4 electric PCs,and 1 charger for every 7 electric PCs in towns,suburbs,and rural areas1.Ratio refers to public EVCI network only 2.Cities in Germany:Berlin,Munich,Bonn,Bremen,Dresden,Dsseldorf,Frankfurt am

136、Main,Hamburg,Hannover,Karlsruhe,Cologne,Leipzig,Mannheim,Mnster,Nuremberg,Stuttgart,Bielefeld,Bochum,Dortmund,Duisburg,Essen,WuppertalSource:EU EV Charging MasterplanGranular ZIP-code-level model availableDemand-driving-oriented pathwayHome(AC)Work(AC and DC)Fleet hub(AC and DC)Public overnight(AC)P

137、ublic fast highway(DC)Public fast off-highway(DC)Retail and destination(incl.Public garages)(AP and DC)Public fast non-Highways(DC)26Highway infrastructure requirements Another measure relevant for the deployment of public charging infrastructure is the required number of fast chargers for every 100

138、 kilometers of highway,with particular emphasis on the core TEN-T corridors.The core TEN-T network(nine core corridors)represents some of Europes most heavily used and significant roads,with an average of about 50,000 vehicles per day per corridor traveling approximately 62%of the total yearly vehic

139、le kilometers traveled in the entire TEN-T network(core and noncore).By 2030,85,000 fast chargers for passenger cars will span the 47 thousand kilometers of the core TEN-T network(Exhibit 15),equivalent to 184 fast-charging points every 100 kilometers(92 fast-charging points every 100 kilometers in

140、each direction of travel).These chargers will serve the approximately 6,000 vehicles that travel on these routes each hour during peak times,of which 1,500 are estimated to be EVs and 75 to 85%of those to be passenger cars.The density of fast chargers differs widely across corridors and countries du

141、e to differences in traffic volume(Exhibit 16).The Netherlands,for example,considering its high density of EVs and port cities,requires 360 fast chargers for every 100 kilometers of TEN-T highway in 2030.27Exhibit 15:Passenger cars will need 184 fast chargers for every 100 km of road to charge on co

142、re TEN-T corridors by 2030Source:EU EV Charging Masterplan,Trans-European Transport Network(TEN-T),EU CommissionAtlanticNorth Sea BalticScandinavian MediterraneanMediterraneanNorth Sea MediterraneanBalticAdriaticRhineDanubeOther core network highwaysRhineAlpineOrient East Mediterranian4.96.43.11.71.

143、11.44.62.72.918.137.03.410.38.46.44.66.83.12.52.9215132223264215139311125100207TEN-T corridor47.01851841.Referred to current completed kilometers of road along TEN-T 9 corridors and other core-network highways 2.Incl.public fast highwayLengthThousand kmPublicly accessible fast chargers2ThousandsPubl

144、ic fast chargers per 100 km of roadMain corridors of the EU TEN-T road networkMadridVstra Gtalands ln(Gothenburg)Stedoeskkraj(Prague)HamburgGroot-Rijnmond(Rotterdam)Grevena,KozaniWarsawMilanParis/Seine et MarneLinzBarcelonaIllustrative mapEU-27 demand-driving-oriented pathwayMM:reviewed28User segmen

145、ts and corresponding charging behavior To understand the charging location of EVs,six user segments with different charging behaviors are modelled(Exhibit 17).Three of these segments are private EV owners(one segment with access to home charging,one segment with access to workplace charging but no a

146、ccess to home charging,and one segment with access to public charging only).The remaining three are corporate EV owners,e-Rental drivers,and e-Taxi drivers.The behavior of each user segment is taken into account to derive the share of energy demand per charging location.Each charging location is in

147、turn associated with charging technologies of differing powers,and our modelling assumes an optimal distribution of such technologies:from DC 1MW fast chargers expected to appear on the market over the next few years,to curbside AC slow chargers.The latter can be as slow as 3 to 5 kW,which is suffic

148、ient to charge for a daily commute range overnight,and which is not expected to put large strains on the grid.Each user segment is defined by a particular charging behavior(Exhibit 18).Private EV owners with home charging use their home charging equipment for 31%of charging.Private EV owners with ac

149、cess to workplace charging charge 42%of required energy in the workplace.Private EV owners with no access to either home or workplace charging charge 70%overnight at Exhibit 16:The average of 184 charging points per 100 km for passenger cars on the TEN-T corridors in 2030 varies significantly across

150、 countriesThe average of 184 charging points per 100 km for PCs on the TEN-T corridors in 2030 varies significantly across countriesSource:EU EV Charging Masterplan,Trans-European Transport Network(TEN-T),EU CommissionEVCI TEN-T density on EU-27 core corridors,passenger cars1.EV charging points 2.We

151、ighted average of the other 17 EU-27 countries Overview of core TEN-T corridors by country,PCsEVCP1/100 km3501036034631130023120819017117013484NetherlandsGermanyBelgiumIrelandAustriaDenmarkFranceCzech RepublicItalySwedenOthersAverage2184Top 10 countries for total EVCI density along core TEN-T corrid

152、orsEU-27 demand-driving-oriented pathway29public charging stations.Corporate EV owners are expected to use workplace charging as their dominant location(22%of charging).In contrast,e-Rental and e-Taxi EVs are expected to have retail and destination charging as their dominant location(56%of charging)

153、followed by public fast charging on and off highways(combined 39%of charging).It must be noted that throughout this report,public overnight charging includes curbside charging and chargers that range from 4 to 11 kW.Of the six user segments,it is primarily the EV owners with access to home charging

154、who influence the lower EV to public charging point ratio across archetypes:a lower proportion of EV owners with access to home charging is associated with a lower ratio.In cities,58%of EV owners have access to home charging in 2021,a value which is 76%in towns and 83%in rural areas.Between 2021 and

155、 2030,the share of EV drivers with access to home chargers is expected to decrease for all three archetypes,reaching 38%,60%,and 68%for cities,towns,and rural areas,respectively.This decrease is primarily driven by the fact that although drivers with access to home charging are most likely to buy an

156、 EV,a robust public charging network rollout will facilitate access for EVs when home charging is not possible.In the EU,it is estimated that approximately 50%of the EV owners do not live in homes that can easily be equipped with charging points(see Exhibit 17).These drivers are expected to adopt EV

157、s later when public charging infrastructure is more widespread.Exhibit 17:Six populations of user segments are used to define charging behaviors across archetypesSource:Institute of Transport Economics,London Vehicle Infrastructure Delivery Plan,Mobilitt in Deutschland,web search,EU EV Charging Mast

158、erplanUser segmentation for PCs in 2021 and 2030,percent5838192692099202141612030CitiesTowns and suburbsRural areas76607168121231132021203018368111212120211213152030E-taxi driverE-rental car driverCorporate car EV ownerPrivate EV owner:only access to public chargingPrivate EV owner:access to work ch

159、argingPrivate EV owner:access to home chargingPopulation in regional archetypePercent36402430Exhibit 18:Each user segment is defined by its share of charging(in percent of energy charged)across charging locationsUser segmentSingle homeMulti-family homeWorkRetail and destinationPublic fast highwayPub

160、lic fast off-highwayPublic overnightFleet hubOwner with home charging31%14%3%25%14%13%-Owner without home charging but with work charging-42%29%15%14%-Owner relying on street and public charging-15%8%7%70%-Corporate EV owner16%7%22%12%12%12%-19%E-rental car driver-56%20%19%-5%E-taxi driver-56%20%19%

161、-5%EU-27 demand-driving-oriented pathwayAverage charging location by regional archetype in 2030Percent of energy20134 51211151328Cities100%415819Rural areas121413542013Towns andsuburbs910326100%100%Retail and destination(incl.public garages)Public overnightPublic fastoff-highwayPublic fasthighway Wo

162、rkSingle homeMulti-family homeFleet hubAverage charging location by user segment in 2030Percent of energy by user segmentSource:EU EV Charging Masterplan,expert interviews and insights31By 2030,it is expected that the majority(about 60%)of PC energy demand will come from public locations(Exhibit 19)

163、.Public charging stations will be equally divided into slow AC charging on streets,retail,and destination locations,and DC charging along highways,rural areas,cities,and retail and destination locations.In the demand-driving-oriented pathway,public charging energy demand is split equally into AC slo

164、w charging(including DC 25 and DC 50)and DC fast charging(over 150 kW).In the utilization-oriented pathway,public fast charging supplies more than 65%of the public energy demand.3.Charging infrastructure for CVsCharging infrastructure requirements for LCVs,trucks,and busesWhile the EU Commission set

165、 official regulatory targets for CO2 emissions reduction in new sales for the PC and LCV segment(55%by 2030),policymakers are still debating a revised target level for commercial vehicles.Based on the discussions with the associations involved and the information availability about the upcoming regu

166、latory changes,two scenarios have been developed,driving two underlying EV(BEV)parcs for trucks:30%CO2 emissions in 2030 and 40%CO2 emissions in 2030;this report takes into consideration the first scenario.Exhibit 19:Charging energy demand is split into charging locations and by charging speedPC ene

167、rgy demand in 2030,by location and charging speed,TWhTotal:113.1 TWhMulti-family home50 kWPublic,overnight350 kW4-22 kWPublic fast highwayWork150 kWPublic fast off-highway25 kWSingle home100 kWRetail and destinationFleet hub10.619.114.91.05.98.20.12.37.01.51.61.67.50.20.31.10.50.50.28.39.54.55.21.5(

168、Semi-)private(40%)Public(60%)Demand-driving-oriented pathwayACDCSource:EU EV Charging MasterplanDemand-driving-oriented pathway32Exhibit 20:Trucks and buses energy demand will surge to 26.1 TWh and 2.7 TWh in 2030 respectively,requiring 50,000 public charging stations-30%C02emissions in 20301-40%C02

169、emissions in 20301Trucks energy demand(BEV only)E-trucks charging energy demand,TWhTrucks charging infrastructure(BEV only)Th charging stations-30%C02emissions in 20301-40%C02emissions in 20301Buses energy demand(BEV only)E-buses charging energy demand,TWhBuses charging infrastructure(BEV only)Th ch

170、arging stationsSource:EU EV Charging Masterplan0.964%0.196%3.84%Fleet hubPublic fast highwayPublic overnight250.70.12030202176%98%2%2.70.136.95.563%43%48%9%26.1202140%76%2553%0.17%20303.90.8234.9202133.68.62536.0203046.7279.460.338.01.114.5265.661.1341.23.6252021203013.052.355.94.316.469.359.114.722

171、.06.010.21.All scenarios are referred to EU-27 only,emissions savings vs 202030%is reference scenario in report33LCVs show different usage patterns;nevertheless,most charging points(56%or 1.9 million)are also in fleet hubs.LCVs,depending on the use case,are also often charged in public overnight(18%

172、or 647,000 charging points)and at home(for example,passenger LCVs,SME,and utilities LCVs and rental LCVs)with a cumulative 24%of all charging points(810,000).In contrast to PCs,CVs are often charged in private-fleet hubs(where vehicles are safely parked and usually maintained).This is so as CVs are

173、an investment that needs to be operational by the start of the vehicle service life.Long-haul and regional trucks and buses also rely on public charging for fast(daytime stops)and overnight charging(on long multiday trips).Taking a closer look at the specific charging infrastructure needs for these

174、vehicle types by 2030(Exhibit 20),trucks will require 279,000 charging points,of which 84%will be in fleet hubs.The remaining charging points will predominantly be made up of public,fast-charging points along highways(36,000)and public overnight charging points(9,000).For buses,a total of 56,000 cha

175、rging points will be required,of which 92%will be in fleet hubs,while the other 4,000 charging points allow fast charging off highways,especially for regional buses and coaches.The average charging speed highly correlates with the number of public chargers.The emergence of the Megawatt Charging Syst

176、em(MCS)allowing average charging speeds of 700 to 800 kW for trucks and busesis expected to become the industry standard for fast public charging for CVs by 2025.Considering that most installed public chargers could become MCS chargers,the number of public charging stations could be reduced by aroun

177、d 70%,as they would provide charging that is twice as fast and has one-and-a-half times higher utilization rates,assuming the energy demand from electric trucks remains constant(Exhibit 21).Text box 2:Introduction to Megawatt Charging SystemsMcKinsey&Company1MCS will become the new technology standa

178、rd for class 6-8 commercial vehicles post 2025New CV high-power charging solution to maximize customer flexibility when using fully electric commercialvehicles,specifically class 12+ton(N2+,M2+)trucks and buses.The technology can also be leveraged inmarine(ie,ferries),aviation(short haul,VTOLs),and

179、rail.Megawatt Charging System(MCS)MCS up to 1,250 V and 3,000 AVehicles equipped with MCS should be able to charge from the existing CCS infrastructure.RequirementsDescriptionCross-industry effort involving truck manufacturers,suppliers,and charging operators to ensure fast chargingof commercial veh

180、icles at charging speeds of up to 1+MW,since current technology(CCS)is limited to500 kW,which is not sufficient to drive electrification of HDT transport and charge trucks within the45 minutes breaks that truck drivers are legally required to take in the EU.Motivation34Exhibit 21:An estimated 40k fa

181、st charging points are required in public (incl.highways)for trucks and busesAn estimated 40k fast charging points are required along highways for trucks and busesCharging infrastructure(BEV only),number of charging points,thousands9342351220253620304727912,000-40,000fast public charging points for

182、trucks and buses in 203010,000public overnight chargers for trucks80%+of chargers to be in fleet depots for trucks and buses20252030Total fast public charging points,thousands512 1540TrucksBusesSource:EU EV Charging MasterplanEU-27 demand-driving-oriented pathway161332025452203056Public fast highway

183、Fleet hubPublic overnight30%CO2 reduction target3843420252351192030254Trucks202513152203011453BusesBalanced CCS and MCS scenarioMCS fast-charger-only scenario2025203011k MCS chargerswith 800 kW power6k MCS 800 kw chargers30k 300 kW chargers35Deep dive:highway charging infrastructure requirements for

184、 trucks and buses4 A reliable network of fast chargers on the TEN-T core network is of great importance for electric CVs,specifically trucks.On average,24,000 public fast chargers will be required across the 47 thousand kilometers,resulting in an average of 51 fast charging points every 100 kilomete

185、rs(Exhibit 22).5 4 The following deep dive on highway charging infrastructure will focus on trucks and buses because LCVs are predominantly used for shorter trips.Only a negligible fraction of rental LCVs is used for long-distance trips,for example,for moving or recreational activities.5 The 8,000 t

186、o 24,000 charging points are in addition to the 160 charging points already estimated for PCs.The reason that charging points are calculated separately and not assumed to be used by all vehicle types,is that CVs will need DC 500+kW charging points,whereas charging points of up to DC 350 kW will be s

187、ufficient for PCs.Exhibit 22:Trucks and buses will require 51 fast chargers every 100 km of road to charge on core TEN-T corridors by 2030Source:EU EV Charging Masterplan,Trans-European Transport Network(TEN-T),EU CommissionNorth Sea MediterraneanScandinavian MediterraneanAtlanticMediterraneanNorth

188、Sea BalticRhine DanubeBalticAdriatic6.4Rhine Alpine3.1Orient East MediterranianOther core network highways4.91.71.418.14.61.12.72.92.61.91.63.11.22.12.31.00.97.155301017116021114775440TEN-T corridor47.0124511.Referred to current completed kilometers of road along TEN-T 9 corridors and other core net

189、work highways 2.Incl.public fast highwayLengthThousand kmPublicly accessible fast chargers2ThousandsPublic fast chargers per 100 km of roadEU-27 demand-driving-oriented pathway30%CO2 reduction targetBalanced CCS and MCS scenarioMCS fast-charger-only scenario81747.0136User segments and corresponding

190、charging behavior for trucks and busesAs was done for PCs,the assessment of charging infrastructure for trucks and buses is based on representative subsegments(Exhibit 23),each having a differing share of energy charged in three locations:public fast,public overnight,and fleet hubs.On average,across

191、 the five subsegments,57%of charging in 2030 will happen in fleet hubs,36%will be public fast,and the remaining 7%will be public overnight.As for the former,with the exception of long-haul trucks,all truck and bus subsegments are expected to charge 90%of the energy at fleet hubs.On the other hand,lo

192、ng-haul trucks43%of the electric trucks and buses parcare expected to charge 50%of the energy at public fast charging stations.Long-haul trucks are expected to charge at a public fast charger once daily,and they will not make it to a fleet charger once every five nights,in which case they will charg

193、e at an overnight charger.6 User segments and corresponding charging behavior for LCVsOn average,LCVs are expected to obtain 47%of their energy from fleet charging,34%from home charging,and the remaining share split relatively evenly between public overnight and public fast charging.Five subsegments

194、 were defined for LCVs(Exhibit 24),each representing 6 All three subsegments of trucks include medium-duty trucks as well as heavy-duty trucks.Exhibit 23:For trucks and buses,five use cases(with distinct annual mileages and charging patterns)have been used for modelling charging infrastructureSource

195、:EU EV Charging Masterplan based on IHS Markit and KBA sales data1.Germany taken as reference data point2.Figures referred to 2030Trucks and buses segment overview AverageCharging type2Percent Regional buses and coachesBuses carrying passengers along specified routes,with predetermined stops within

196、regional areasCV subsegmentEstimated annual mileage1Kilometers266431313100Share of parcPercentRegional trucksHeavy-duty and medium-duty trucks running interregional road connectionsLong-haul trucksHeavy-duty and medium-duty trucks travelling overnight on long routes9010504010100036577060,00060,00011

197、6,00074,00034,00067,000Urban trucksHeavy-duty and medium-duty trucks running last mile in urban centersMunicipal busesBuses and coaches running within the city area(incl.school buses)9010Fleet hub(DC)Public overnight(DC)Public fast(DC)95537a distinct charging and usage pattern with its own mix of ch

198、arging locations.The high share of fleet charging is primarily driven by urban LCVs,which are expected to obtain 95%of their energy from fleet hub charging and make up 20%of the parc.The home charging share is primarily driven by passenger LCVs,which are owned and driven in a similar way to PCs and

199、thus have a similar charging pattern to PCs,with 70%home charging expected.Public overnight and public fast charging are reserved for circumstances in which home charging is not possible.Other use cases,such as logistics LCVs,are charged similarly to trucks and buses,where fleet overnight charging i

200、s the predominant method.4.Required investment in charging infrastructure For the demand-driving-oriented pathway,the cumulative investment to develop the required infrastructure for PCs and CVs amounts to 172 billion by 2030(Exhibit 26).From a charging location perspective,85 billion,out of the tot

201、al 172 billion,would have to be invested for public charging infrastructure,of which 59 billion are needed for public fast charging.The 172 billion refer to both public and nonpublic charging points,necessary to meet the EV uptake needs by 2030(Exhibit 25).Exhibit 24:For LCVs,five use cases(with dis

202、tinct annual mileages and charging patterns)have been used for modelling charging infrastructureSource:EU EV Charging Masterplan based on IHS Markit and KBA sales data1.Germany taken as reference data point2.Figures referred to 2030LCV segment overview Rental LCVsCar and truck rental companiesPassen

203、ger LCVsMostly private use(eg,Renault Kangoo,campervans)151570Public overnight(AC)Public fast(DC)Fleet hub(DC)Home(AC)9010405055955252530209344710Logistics LCVsPostal and delivery servicesSME and utility LCVsCraftsmen,service vehiclesUrban LCVsPublic service vehicles,retail delivery vehicles,dealer

204、registrationsAverageCharging type2Percent CV subsegmentEstimated annual mileage1Kilometers510353020100Share of parcPercent30,00013,00031,00025,00020,00021,20038Exhibit 25:Both public and nonpublic charging points will be necessary by 2030 to meet the EV uptake needsCharging infrastructure(BEV and PH

205、EV)Number of charging points,thousands29,60036,430566,8302,700710230445243,410274Source:EU EV Charging MasterplanNonpublic charging pointsPublic charging pointsExample:public and nonpublic charging points for PCsThousands100170 46029,6002,3003,9007,60021,0009006,830Retail and destination(incl.public

206、 garages)WorkPublic overnightSingle homePublic fast highwayPublic fastoff-highway Multi-family homeFleet hubEU-27 demand-driving-oriented pathway39Of the 172 billion investment,approximately 60%(120 billion)will be allocated to DC fast charging points(Exhibit 26).While fewer in number compared to th

207、e AC charging points,the hardware and installation of DC charging points is more expensive(Exhibit 27):the 2030 investment per kW ranges from 125 for AC 11 kW to 400 for DC 150 kW.In terms of total investment,while an AC 11 kW charger is expected to cost 1,000 per unit,this is expected to be 104,000

208、 for DC 500+kW and reach 260,000 for DC 1 MW chargers.Exhibit 26:Total investments into private and public charging infrastructure for PCs and CVs will equate to 172 bn in the demand-driving-oriented pathwaySource:EU EV Charging Masterplan1.Split between fast and slow charging is based on energy dem

209、and2.DC 500+kW technology scales up to 1 MW of power per charger at 2030Number of EV charging points,millionsInvestment in EVCI,billionsCumulative charging points and investment in EVCI13.336.4202120250.32.40.30.40.2203015.240.0AC 4-22 kWDC 25 kWDC 100 kWDC 150 kWDC 50 kWDC 350 kWDC 500+kW2521720211

210、32025363023220301473172CommentsThe vast majority of EV public charging infrastructure will consist of AC 4-22 kW charging points,mainly due to the nonpublic chargers segmentThe most common technologies for PCs,AC 4-22 kW,will induce 30%of the total costDC 100 kW technology will be key for public ove

211、rnight chargers and fleet depots for trucks and busesEU-27 demand-driving-oriented pathwayPrivate and public chargers40Exhibit 27:The per kW cost of installing chargers varies from 125 for AC 4-22 kW chargers to 260 for DC 1 MW chargers1.These numbers are averages and great variability may arise due

212、 to local differencesCapex for different charger types in 2030335161152243440101124113126011146086104HardwarePlanning and engineeringAdministrationInstallation260208247400558125DescriptionTechnologyCost per kW of capacity,Standalone fast charging stations these can range from 25 kW to 350 kW,and cha

213、rge for a range of 100-200 km in 10-20 minutes depending on the charger and the vehicleSeparate wallbox wired to homes electricity supply or public station wired to lamp post for curbside overnight chargingStandalone fast charging stations currently 500 kW are ready for commercial use(trucks)In the

214、next 2-3 years,the 1MW will become commercially availableAC 4-22 kWDC 25 kWDC 150 kWDC 350 kWDC 500+kWSource:Selected RFPs,expert interviewsCharger capex,thousands11 kW chargerExcludes grid investments411.Electricity grid upgrades and investmentsTo support the development of e-mobility and the rollo

215、ut of EVCI,grid reinforcement will be necessary before connecting chargers to the electricity network.This reinforcement will ensure EVs are effectively integrated into the power system,guaranteeing that the required power quality and security levels can be maintained(Exhibit 28).While the whole ele

216、ctricity network consists of both transmission(carrying high-voltage electricity from a power plant to a substation)and distribution systems(carrying medium-and low-voltage electricity from substations to end consumers),only distribution systems are likely to be upgraded due to e-mobility.As such,al

217、l investments referred to in this chapter only consider this latter part of the network,and all estimates refer to upgrades strictly related to e-mobility,namely grid capacity extensions,smart charging,and vehicle-to-grid charging functionality.Investments in smart meters,digitization,automation,mod

218、ernization,or resilience upgrades are not included.However,these latter investments are critical and will act as enablers,as e-mobility investments will take place in tandem with generic grid upgrades.With the distribution network consisting of medium-and low-voltage grids,the most common upgrades w

219、ill be transformer upgrades,modifications,and network extensions at low-voltage grids,which is where slow chargers will be connected.Since slow charging is typically associated with a high level of simultaneous usage(in residential and commercial transformers),the low-voltage grid is where peak powe

220、r issues will be most critical,and the largest congestion is expected.However,fast chargers are connected to the medium-voltage grid,which typically has sufficient capacity.Congestion issues are only likely to cause concern when several fast chargers are close to each other,and all have the same con

221、nection to the medium-voltage grid.On average,the addition of EV loads will accelerate the reinforcement of the medium-voltage grid.However,e-mobility will not be the primary driver for such reinforcements,which will mainly be driven by electrification unrelated to e-mobility(for example,heating).C.

222、Electricity grid upgrades and energy supply42Expected cumulative investments into grid upgrades between 2021 and 2030 have been calculated as 41 billion(900 per EV on the road),11%of total annual investments of 363 billion(Exhibit 29).Thus,over the ten years between 2021 and 2030,yearly grid upgrade

223、s related to e-mobility amount to 4.1 billion.With 2015 DSO investments of 24 billion,total annual investments are expected to increase by 51%to reach the required 36 billion.It must be noted that between 2021 and 2030,a linear increase is unlikely,but rather an increase in part dependent on EV mark

224、et share.Step functions are,for example,expected to take place in 2025,2028,and 2030 where the EV share of the total vehicle parc is expected to exceed 5%,10%,and 15%,respectively.However,minimizing the peak load via smart-charging solutions can reduce the number of grid reinforcements.Smart chargin

225、g facilitates a reduction in grid investments,especially for slow home,workplace,and fleet-depot charging,where vehicles are parked and connected to the charger for a prolonged period.By 2030,smart charging,centrally controlling the times at which the vehicle charges,will be widely rolled out.Bidire

226、ctional charging,which allows discharging where vehicles also provide electricity to the grid,will similarly play a role.Exhibit 28:An extensive number of grid upgrades on the distribution network will be requiredAn extensive number of grid upgrades will be required,most of which will occur on the d

227、istribution networkPower constraints expected by 2025 in many circumstancesLittle to no power constraintsPower constraints in most deployment scenariosMajor customer experience pain point!Distribution substationConcentration of EVs in specific regions(eg,urban areas)likely to accelerate capacity upg

228、radesPower generationTransmissionDistribution feeder lineDistribution transformerService to meterEVs will not require significant changes to system-level generation planningExisting transmission systems more than capable of delivering power where needed;EVs might add some incremental load but not a

229、significant changeResidential distribution transformers will need to be upgraded once the feeder reaches 30%EV penetrationMost residential service drops can support current L2 charging except in older homesCommercialDepending on country,potential constraintsIf a grid upgrade is needed,customers migh

230、t need to wait for several weeks for a new interconnectionCommercial customers frequently face demand charges,making EV adoption cost prohibitive without managed charging!Commercial sites need an upgrade to the service drop and on-site electrical hardwareCommercial distribution transformers will nee

231、d to be upgraded in many use casesSource:EU EV Charging Masterplan43Due to the number of slow chargers connected to the low-voltage grid at home and the workplace,it is in these two charging locations where approximately 75%of the investments originate(30 billion).The investments are related to upgr

232、ades of lines and transformers.Line upgrades refer to the replacement of existing cables and overhead lines and the extension of the meshing of the grid.For transformer upgrades,the nominal power of transformers can be increased by replacement or by adding switchgears or switchboards.The 30 billion

233、for home and workplace charging upgrades are thus mainly driven by excavation costs and civil works associated with cable upgrades and the material and installation costs of the transformers themselves.The remaining 25%of investments are related to public fast chargers connected to the medium-voltag

234、e grid,which typically refer to transformer upgrades at high-or medium-voltage substations.Negligible investments Smart charging can actively balance the grid and avoid peaks,reducing the required grid investments.Exhibit 29:41 bn DSO investments into upgrades for EV charging by 2030,10%of total inv

235、estments 41 bn DSO investments into upgrades for EV charging until 2030,10%of total investments175363678041Generic upgrades2REGS3Electrification of building and housesElectrification of mobility incl.smart chargingTotalCumulative 2021-30 DSO investments,billions41 bncumulative e-mobility grid invest

236、ments until 203011%of total DSO1investments needed for electrification of mobility24.0Required 2021-30Past annualized436.3+51%Annual investments billionsSource:Eurelectric 2020 study,a top-down estimate that uses EVCI model energy demand,and a bottom-up estimate based on EVCI model charging location

237、s,European Commission,expert interviews,EU EV Charging Masterplan 1.Distribution system operator2.Such upgrades include smart metering,grid modernization,digitization and automation,resilience,and storage3.Renewable energy generation systems4.Historicals refer to 2015Equivalent to 11%of total invest

238、mentsEU-27 demand-driving-oriented pathway44Exhibit 30:Grid upgrade investments until 2030 equate to an average cost of 1,000 per charging point 41 bn in grid upgrade investments to be made by 2030,equivalent to an average cost of 1,000 per charging pointSource:Web search,expert interviews,EU EV Cha

239、rging Masterplan1.Detailed logic relies on number of chargers,penetration of EVs,concentration of EVs,size of charging hub,and average load of transformers2.Total%does not sum to 100%due to rounding errors2281011141LocationHomeWorkPublic overnightPublic fastFleet depotRetail and destinationTotal54%2

240、0%24%0%1%1%100%16141111Upgrade of residential transformers(between 50 kVA and 100 kVA),and addition of linesNo grid upgrades applicableUpgrade of 5+MVA transformers,and network extensionUpgrade of 5+MVA transformers upgrade per fleet depotUpgrade of commercial transformers(typically 100 kVA),and add

241、ition of linesUpgrade of commercial transformers(typically 100 kVA),and addition of linesCumulative 2030 cost,billionsCumulative 2030 cost/charging point,thousandsGrid upgrade required1Share of total cost2are expected to be needed for public overnight charging since analyses suggest that by 2030 the

242、se charging needs can be met with regular modernization of the grid(Exhibit 30).Commercial vehicle charging normally occurs around noon at public fast chargers or at night in depots or in private fleet depots.An index to measure the grids reliability and the continuity of the power supply is the Sys

243、tem Average Interruption Frequency Index(SAIFI).This indicator measures the average number of service interruptions experienced by a customer annually.Countries with the highest power supply continuity had a SAIFI of less than 0.25 in 2020,those with the lowest power supply continuity had a SAIFI gr

244、eater than 1.0(Exhibit 31).On average,SAIFI has decreased over the past years,indicating that DSOs have dealt with increasing volumes of distributed generation despite an aging grid and increased climate hazards.Country differences also exist,with some countries lagging in grid reliability.In additi

245、on,DSOs are expected to be challenged further with the EVCI rollout to keep the network running smoothly.As a result,increased system flexibility will be critical to guarantee the grids stability.45The medium-and low-voltage grids are not uniform across countries;cross-country differences exist as g

246、rid size and capacity are influenced by country-specific factors,including the infrastructures age,population density,and electrification levels(for example,heating).For instance,fewer concerns are expected around distribution grid capacity for countries with widespread electric heating.To understan

247、d how the 41 billion differ between countries,country power supply continuity was used as a proxy since the data suggests a correlation between SAIFI(and thus power supply continuity)and grid investment per country(Exhibit 32).This correlation informed the calculations underlying countries investmen

248、t needs.For example,of all countries displayed in Exhibit 32,Italy is estimated to have the highest investment needs,in line with being the country with the highest 2020 SAIFI of 2.2.Exhibit 31:Country differences regarding grid stability have been consideredSource:World Bank,Eurelectric,CEER1.Syste

249、m Average Interruption Frequency Indices,high:1;medium:0.5-1;low:0.25-0.5;very low:2,000/EV;medium:1,000-2,000/EV;low:500-1,000/EV;very low:500/EV2.PCs,LCVs,and CVs parc(number of vehicles)3.Investments of countries in the“other”category are scaled according to SAIFI and the System Average Interrupt

250、ion Duration IndexSource:EU EV Charging Masterplan,Eurelectric 2020 study and SAIFI2021-30 country investments in distribution grids1,thousands/EV parc2HighMediumVery lowLow2021-30 investments in distribution grids due to e-mobility,k/EV parc21.1FranceDenmarkIrelandSpain0.2PolandItalyHungaryGermanyP

251、ortugalSwedenOther3Average5.10.62.21.90.90.60.20.11.20.9393130.5630.50.51241Low impact of charging infrastructure on the grids as most residential charging is assumed to happen at off-peak hours(especially at night)Large proportion of residential charging points due to rural spread of customers resu

252、lting in high investments to reinforce the LV grid in particular30%of households with an EV will require additional connection capacity to charge their vehiclesMost of the charging points expected in urban areas;urban grids have spare capacity to integrate most of the charging pointsElectricity dema

253、nd(not exclusively related to e-mobility)is expected to grow at 6.1%CAGRThe grid has capacity to integrate majority of charging needs by 2030;50%of EVs smart charge during off-peak hours2021-30 investments,billionsWith 2021 EV penetration below 1%,moderate EV uptake expected up to 2030,where EV pene

254、tration will reach 10%;major penetration after 2030With 2021 EV penetration at less than 2%,significant EV uptake expected up to 2030,where EV penetration will reach 24%With 2021 EV penetration at less than 1%,moderate EV uptake expected up to 2030,where EV penetration will reach 14%With 2021 EV pen

255、etration below 1%,moderate EV uptake expected up to 2030,where EV penetration will reach 10%;major penetration after 2030Description482.Renewable energy power generation and investmentsAccording to McKinsey estimates,57%of the total electricity supply(1,721 TWh)will be generated by renewable energy

256、sources by 2030.The dominant renewable energy sources will be solar(470 TWh)and wind(806 TWh),while the remaining 445 TWh will be supplied by biomass and hydropower.Overall electricity consumption in the EU-27 will rise in line with electricity generation,resulting in around 2,813 TWh of consumption

257、(demand)in 2030,93%of the total electricity generated.Electricity demand created by EV charging is likely to increase from 9 TWh in 2021 to 165 TWh in 2030(Exhibit 34).This increase of 165 TWh represents 6%of the expected EU-27 electricity consumption in 2030.In the full contribution case,it is assu

258、med that by 2030,the additional 75 GW demand from EV charging will be met entirely by renewable energy sources,namely solar and wind.All renewable energy is supplied by newly installed solar and wind capacity.This 75 GW will be made up of 44 GW from solar,22 GW from wind onshore,and 9 GW from wind o

259、ffshore.The cumulative investment needed by 2030 would be 69 billion in the full contribution case.This 69 billion investment represents around 18%of the EU-27s total investments in renewable energy sources by 2030(375 billion).In the fair contribution case,the 69 billion investment could be reduced

260、 by around 57%to 30 billion,considering the current and expected contribution of other traditional energy sources to the electricity generation mix(around 43%)and leveraging the existing capacity of other nonscalable renewables,such as hydropower and biomass(approximately 14%).49Exhibit 34:Deploymen

261、t of renewable power will require 69 billion investments by 2030Deployment of renewable power will cost 74 bnthats 1,600 per EVElectricity demand due to EV charging infrastructure in 20301,TWhSource:EU EV Charging Masterplan,McKinsey Global Energy Perspectives,WindEurope,SolarPower Europe 1.The anal

262、ysis assumes that additional installed capacity is renewable energy sources,but nuclear could also be used for decarbonizing electricity2.Based on electricity production split between renewables and traditional sources22(32%)25(36%)Cumulative investments in new RES capacity in 203022(32%)Full contri

263、bution-EV charging comes from new green capacity investmentsFair contribution EV charging with average energy mix 375 bn 30 bn 69 bn95016543%202120302025Total electricity demand in 2030257%2.813+38%p.a.EVCI energy demandElectricity demand,renewablesElectricity demand,traditional sources18%of total E

264、U investments into renewables until 2030 in the full contribution caseElectricity demand due to EV charging6%of total demandEU-27 demand-driving-oriented pathwayCumulative investments in renewables by 2030,billions9(12%)44(59%)22(29%)RES full contribution new installations,GW75 GWSolar PVWind,offsho

265、reWind,onshore18%501.Consumer concerns around chargingBeing aware of and addressing consumer concerns will be critical in reassuring consumers and ensuring a smooth rollout of EVCI.A McKinsey 2021 consumer survey shows that besides high vehicle prices of EVs,access to chargers and driving range are

266、key concerns.By building an accessible and fast charging infrastructure the concerns around access to chargers and driving range can be alleviated.D.Key interventionsExhibit 35:Multiple consumer concerns around EVs exist,with the primary concerns being access to EV charging infrastructure,driving ra

267、nge and high vehicle pricesLargest concerns about EVsSource:McKinsey Center for Future Mobility 2021 Consumer SurveyShare of respondents,percentAccess to chargers40Driving rangeBattery lifetimeBattery safety concernsHigh maintenance costHigh vehicle priceReliability/quality concernsResale value8Vehi

268、cle type not available9No attractive design3837302523189GlobalConcern4864371716223334364125891534159545below global averageabove or equal to global averagePublic charging concerns can be divided into three distinct categories:charger localization,charger access,and charging experience(Exhibit 35).As

269、 for the former,drivers encounter difficulties localizing chargers,with 47%of Italian,French,and Spanish EV drivers frustrated by this process.Creating accurate real-time dashboards with centralized information from multiple operators has been identified as the most effective mitigating measure.As f

270、or charger access,consumer concerns include fears that the plug type may be incompatible or that the charger may be inaccessible(for example,due to plugged-in and charged EVs).44%of Italian,French,and Spanish EV drivers are frustrated by waiting for an available charger.Such concerns could be mitiga

271、ted by enforcing adequate restrictions to avoid blockage and by using time-51Home charging concerns have also been split into three categories:charger installation feasibility,charger installation,and charging experience.As for the former,approximately 50%of EV car owners in cities are not expected

272、to install a home charger.Local laws may act as barriers to installation(such as monument protection),as could resistance from co-owners in multi-family homes.Two equally effective interventions are strengthening EV-ready building codes and introducing a“right to socket.”As for the installation,65%o

273、f EV owners in Germany and the United Kingdom consider efficient installation as one of the essential criteria for home charging;enforcing clear guidelines around the installation is recommended to guarantee this.Lastly,room for improvement exists around the home charging experience based tariffs to

274、 avoid chargers occupied by fully charged vehicles.Lastly,during the charging experience itself,65%of Norwegian EV owners consider charging costs as the first key buying factor.In addition to the cost itself,consumers are concerned about incompatible payment methods and accounts or location safety a

275、nd comfort.The standardization and ease of use of payment systems(for example,through“one-click payment”)and the increased transparency of charging point location(with regard to safety and comfort)could help mitigate such causes of anxiety and facilitate a seamless interoperability of charging stati

276、ons.Exhibit 36:Public charging is associated with pain points attributed to charger localization,access,and charging experienceSource:F2M eSolutions customer survey(n=303 respondents),EVCI Norwegian customer survey(n=200 respondents)Pain pointsReal-time information on charger location,availability,a

277、nd working statusCharger blocked by vehicle or by plugged-in EV not charging,or plug may not be compatibleIncompatible payment methods,limited cost transparency,feeling uncomfortable during charging(eg,due to unlit area)Inter-ventionEnsure real-time maps are available that centralize information1fro

278、m multiple operators onto one single platformEnforce adequate restrictions to avoid charger blockage;use time-based tariffs to avoid EVs plugged in without chargingStandardize payments and accounts,and ensure chargers are in well-lit and comfortable areas StepLocalizationAccessCharging47%of EV owner

279、s are frustrated by locating and driving to chargers44%of EV owners are frustrated by waiting for a free charger65%of EV owners consider charging cost as the first key buying factor1.Including location,availability,working statusNot exhaustivePublic charging52Exhibit 37:Home charging is associated w

280、ith pain points attributed to feasibility,installation,and charging experienceSource:Fleet manager survey in Germany and UK(n=40)Pain pointsAssessing feasibility of charger installation and costs in single/multi-family homesFinding a certified installer and understanding end-to-end installation proc

281、essHaving transparency on charging costs and servicing needs,and limited charging access due to plugged-in EV not chargingInter-ventionStrengthen EV-ready building codes;introduce a“right to a charging spot”Ensure clear guidelines are in place to inform consumers as necessary;strengthen EV-ready bui

282、lding codes Make cost,and status/availability of chargers transparent as a standard feature of chargers1StepFeasibilityInstallationCharging50%of car owners in cities are not expected to be able to install a charger at home65%of EV owners consider efficient installation as one of the most important c

283、riteria for home charging85%of EV owners consider cost as one of the most important criteria for home charging1.This would also serve to incentivize smart chargingNot exhaustiveHome chargingitself,with 85%of EV owners in Germany and the United Kingdom considering cost as one of the most important cr

284、iteria for home charging.A call for action is required to increase the transparency of costs of installing and charging point usage,which could also serve as a way to increase consumer awareness of the financial benefits associated with charging off-peak,reducing the expected impact on the grid.Nume

285、rous stakeholders,including governments,CPOs,and OEMs,that are already taking action have been identified to minimize user concerns around charging(Exhibit 38).As for public charging,Zap-Map facilitates localization in the United Kingdom by displaying information on more than 95%of charging points,o

286、f which around 70%show live availability.ChargePoint has also implemented a strategy to reduce EV-driver waiting times:a driver signs up to a“waitlist”and gets notified as soon as the driver before has finished charging.In parallel,the driver who has completed their charging is notified to move thei

287、r EV.Actions are also being taken to mitigate concerns attributed to home charging:a 2020 EU Directive requires the EU Member States to implement their own EV-ready building policies by 2025.This will inevitably serve as one way to increase the feasibility and speed of home charger installation.Fran

288、ce and Spain are two countries that have also introduced a“right to socket.”Regarding the installation process itself,the Mobility House and Zeplug are two companies that support customers throughout the end-to-end installation process.532.Key interventions for accelerating charging infrastructure r

289、olloutEight critical bottlenecks have been identified for the rollout of the charging infrastructure,five of which are related to long lead times(Exhibit 39).CPOs require around three to 18 months to obtain construction work permits for DC 150 kW or higher chargers,and DSOs need about five to eight

290、months to obtain approvals for network extensions and substation creation.Such approvals are made by permit-granting authorities,including highway bodies,energy or geology local authorities,authorities dealing with archeological studies,and transport ministries.Additional lead times are related to g

291、rid connections(for example,in Portugal,up to 20 months may be needed for new transformer delivery and installation)and EVCI hardware delivery(with six to eight months typically necessary across the EU).Also lead times to find qualified electricians for installation are significant.The demand for ch

292、arging infrastructure installation has more than doubled in 2021,while the number of qualified electricians has not significantly changed.The three remaining bottlenecks are related to the grid.Limited visibility of user load profiles reduces the opportunities to integrate alternative energy resourc

293、es into the grid,which could increase blackouts and energy waste in the future.Similarly,capped investments of DSOs(typically as a fixed percentage of revenues)lag investment needs for modernization.This is a particular concern for aging grids,such as the Polish grid built in the 1970s and 1980s.Las

294、tly,the complex DSO landscape that certain countries have(for example,Germany with more than 850 DSOs)leads to significant effort for CPOs to coordinate with diverse stakeholders.Exhibit 38:Several stakeholders are taking action to address consumer pain pointsSeveral stakeholders are taking action t

295、o address consumer pain pointsSource:EU EV Charging Masterplan,expert interviews,Eurelectric,CLEPABest practice exampleCharging locationPublicHomeStepInstallationSupports customers through charger planning,building,and operationThe app keeps track of costs,energy,and carbon usageChargingLocalization

296、UK app with 95%+of public charge points and 70%showing live availabilityTesla enables“plug and charge,”enabling automatic charging after vehicle is connectedChargingDrivers get a message when their EV is charged,asking them to move it;the next driver on the waitlist is notified and the charger held

297、for the driverAccessSupports customers through end-to-end home and work installation processRequires EU Member States to implement their own EV-ready building policies by 2025Feasibility54The rollout of renewable electricity,especially photovoltaic panels,faces the same challenges.Permit and approva

298、l processes are long,and the lack of qualified electricians also slows down adoption of renewable electricity installations.The identified consumer challenges and EVCI bottlenecks were used to define five clusters of critical interventions(Exhibit 40).First,the infrastructure planning process requir

299、es streamlining in order to reduce long lead times.This could be achieved by standardizing the approval process to minimize the back-and-forth between stakeholders and publishing clear guidelines,illustrating the steps to be taken.Second,EU Member State and cross-country coordination bodies must be

300、established.Such central bodies are vital in overlooking and tracking rollout and could also effectively manage capital allocation as required.An example could be a digital central EU-wide data office that tracks and shares charging infrastructure rollout status,identifies potential bottlenecks for

301、grid and renewable energy production,and Exhibit 39:Eight grid and charging infrastructure bottlenecks have been identified8 grid and EVCI bottlenecks have been identifiedSource:EU EV Charging Masterplan,expert interviews,Eurelectric,CLEPAExampleBottleneckSeverityEVCI setup for DC 150+kW highway cha

302、rgers takes 14 months,of which 8 months are for acquiring the required planning permissions from the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management3-to 18-month lead times for construction work permits for DC 150+kW chargers,due to approvals from city planning and highway bodies and local energy/ge

303、ology authorities,and performance of archaeological studiesIt takes 3 months for the project to be assessed and queued by an engineer,then 3 months for the DSO to secure planning permissions5-to 8-month lead times for DSO approvals for network extension and substation creation for approvals from cit

304、y planning,transport/environmental ministries,and authorities dealing with archeological discoveriesLead time for delivery and installation of new transformers is 20 months when new substation is requiredUp to 20 months time to get access to grid,also due to shortage and long delivery times of trans

305、formersDC 150 kW chargers have lead time of 6-8 months for hardware delivery6+months to deliver EVCI hardwareWith 5%smart meter penetration rate,DSOs have limited opportunities to predict and evaluate alternative solutions to grid reinforcements(eg,ToU,decentral power solutions)Limited visibility of

306、 user load profiles hinders deployment of smart charging solutions850+DSOs throughout Germany require CPOs to follow different processes for deploying EVCISignificant effort by CPOs to coordinate with multiple DSOs across Europe and within countriesCapped investments of DSOs(fixed percentage of reve

307、nues)lag behind investment needs for modernizationIn Poland,DSOs have an obligation to invest each year 10-30%of annual profits,this is insufficient to upgrade grid built in the 1970s and 1980sHighMedium+1 month waiting time for installation,due to lack of experienced electriciansElectricians are ov

308、erbooked due to PV and EVCI installations,often waiting+3 weeks55develops mitigation measures in collaboration with relevant players.This would improve transparency to all players involved and help to address charging infrastructure rollout issues at an early stage.Two critical clusters are centered

309、 around financing:public investments are to be allocated efficiently via smart-incentive programs,and access and transparency of financing instruments is to be increased.The final cluster is centered on the importance of smart charging.The first stage of smart charging controls the charging of vehic

310、les.It reduces the grid load in times of high electricity demand(load balancing),increases the share of solar power when charging around noon,and reduces charging costs for consumers by introducing time-of-use tariffs.The second stage of smart charging involves vehicle-to-grid charging.In this case,

311、EVs can be discharged to balance the grid and reduce electricity generation in peak times.EV owners that support vehicle-to-grid charging will be financially rewarded for their services.The entire EV ecosystem needs to work together to ensure successful smart-charging capabilities.Charging operators

312、 and hardware manufacturers should install and produce smart-charging stations,OEMs and suppliers need to bring the vehicle-to-grid charging technology to the market,and grid players and energy producers need to build the capabilities and promote business models to increase and incentivize the use o

313、f smart charging.Exhibit 40:Five critical clusters of interventions to boost the rollout of the infrastructure have been identified5 critical clusters of interventions to boost rollout of smart charging infrastructureSource:Expert interviews(incl.associations as EIB,Eurelectric,CLEPA,others)Example

314、interventions shownStandardize approval process to minimize back-and-forth between stakeholders,and publish clear guidelines with steps to be taken(eg,Sustainable Transport Forum guidelines)Devise central bodies to track availability and progress of rollout,coordinating efforts and readdressing fund

315、s as neededFacilitate access to financing instruments and increase transparency on financing instruments available for EVCI rolloutDevise complementary incentives to EV purchase subsidies for EVCI and grid upgradesA|Streamline the infrastructure approval processB|Define EU Member State and cross-cou

316、ntry coordination bodiesD|Increase access and transparency of financing instrumentsC|Implement smart incentive schemesCriticalclustersE|Ensure rollout of smart charging Drive rollout of smart charging to reduce load on grid,reduce costs for consumers,and increase share of renewables56Streamline the

317、infrastructure approval process Streamlining the infrastructure planning process would play a key role in reducing lead times(Exhibit 41).Regarding the EVCI setup of DC 150 kW or higher chargers,the time necessary can range between seven and 20 months depending on country specificities.Stockholm is

318、a leader in this area,with an average end-to-end installation time of seven months.While the citys planning-oriented approach requires an upfront time investment to identify and publish potential charging locations in collaboration with DSOs,this accelerates CPO planning and feasibility assessments.

319、It also speeds up approval processes since both the DSOs and the city perform high-level feasibility screenings before publishing potential charging point locations.Stockholms approval time is around three months;in contrast,Portugal requires 12 months.Besides Stockholms planning-oriented approach,o

320、ther best practices to streamline installation have been identified.Oslo has a checklist to accelerate project approvals.The Netherlands has a knowledge platform to address concerns quickly.Frances“right to a socket”eliminates the back-and-forth required for home installation approvals.Including spe

321、ed of grid access as an annual efficiency improvement metric for the DSOs could potentially improve lead times attributed to grid upgrades needed for EV charging infrastructure rollout.57Exhibit 41:Streamlining the infrastructure approval process can be achieved by following best practice examplesA|

322、Best practice DC 150+kW highway charger installation takes 7 monthsSource:2021 International Council on Clean Transport,expert interviews03691215185 months7 months14 months13 months20 months7-20 monthsSpainFranceNetherlandsAveragePortugalCountrySweden1Time needed to install DC 150+kW chargers on hig

323、hways,monthsApproaches to charger rolloutTimePlanning approvals and permits are required from city planning and highway bodies and local energy/geology authorities,and archaeological studies must be carried out.In Stockholm,lead times are shorter,as high-level screening/feasibility assessments are p

324、erformed in the planning phaseDSO/CPO approvals and DSO lead times3 months12 monthsStepDescriptionSweden1PortugalIn Stockholm,the city identifies all potential charging station locations and,in collaboration with the DSO,publishes a map displaying these locations and the estimated cost of connecting

325、 them to the grid;in Portugal,CPOs individually perform feasibility assessmentsLocation identification and feasibility2 months4 monthsThe charging station operator contacts the grid operator and together,they prepare the area(wiring,foundation,and any other civil work)Site preparation,installation,a

326、nd commissioning2 months4 monthsTotal7 months20 monthsAdditional best practices for streamlining the infrastructure planning process All tenants have a“right to install,”meaning that tenants have the right to install charging without seeking permissionThe Knowledge Platform for Charging Infrastructu

327、re allows any questions about installation processes to be addressed,reducing delays Oslos Agency for Urban Environment has developed a checklist to accelerate project approvals1.The 7-month process refers to Stockholm58Define EU Member State and cross-country coordination bodiesThe majority of stak

328、eholders in the complex e-mobility landscape require strong collaboration within and across the EU Member States(Exhibit 42).Coalitions are encouraged to have well-defined roles,set clear and tangible deliverables,and engage with customers.Taking the DSO ecosystem as an example,multiple coalitions e

329、xist(for example,Eurelectric and E.DSO),and the EU DSO entity is the first to have been mandated by regulation.The entity aims to strengthen the cooperation between Europes 2,500 DSOs.Centralizing the DSOs will have the additional advantage of creating a forum of expertise to encourage exchanging id

330、eas.Other examples of best-practice collaboration include the CoordiNet project to improve TSO-DSO-consumer collaboration projects,and the EVI-PCP,intending to create a global platform to facilitate cross-city communication.A central EU-wide data office could be a concrete instrument to measure and

331、steer the e-mobility transition.First,the office should gather,process,and share relevant data to create transparency on EV distribution and the status of charging infrastructure rollout(vs target)on a granular level(ideally on country,region,and zip code level).Second,the data office should identif

332、y potential future grid bottlenecks and future renewable energy production capacity needed.Third,it should share this information with relevant players and collaborate with them to accelerate charging infrastructure rollout and develop tailored mitigation measures.Such a data office would improve tr

333、ansparency to all players involved in charging infrastructure rollout and help to address issues early on.59Implement smart incentive programsGovernments are encouraged to ensure efficient capital allocation through smart incentive programs,which can complement purchase subsidies(Exhibit 43).Comparing current EV purchase subsidies to average annual EVCI investments needs of 2,700 per EV by 2030 sh