《DHL：2023年3月全球海運市場更新報告（英文版）（21頁）.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《DHL：2023年3月全球海運市場更新報告（英文版）（21頁）.pdf（21頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、MARCH 2023 PUBLICATION DATE FEBRUARY 28TH,2023OCEAN FREIGHTMARKET UPDATEDHL Global Forwarding Excellence.Simply delivered.UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)ContentsOcean Freight Market update March 2023DGF Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|March 202321Topic of the month Megamax newbuildings

2、to phase into the Asia Europe trades 2High level market development3Market outlook4Economic outlook&demand development5Capacity 6Carriers7Ports8Ocean schedule reliabilityUNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Topic of the month MegamaxnewbuildingstophaseintotheAsia Europe tradesDGF Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|

3、March 20233The top-11 container lines are scheduled to receive another 89 large containervessels in the remaining course of the year.This number includes 31 megamax(MGX),41 neopanamx(NPX)and 9 other mainline vessels(XXX)larger than7000 TEU.Depending on market demand,delivery of some of these ships c

4、ouldbe deferredto nextyear.The delivery wave will start rolling on 14 March,when the 24116 TEU MSCTESSA will join the AE6/Lion service at Ningbo.Upon delivery,the vessel isexpected to become the worlds largest container ship-but only for a few days.The 24,188 TEU OOCL SPAIN will take-over this title

5、 on 18 March when it willleave Shanghai to join the Far East-North Europe LL3 loop on 21 March,beforepassing the crown to the 24346 TEU MSC IRINA which is to join the AsiaMedAE10/Jade service on 21 March in Qingdao.The first two sister ships of theMSC TESSA will follow her soon.The 24,116 TEU MSC CE

6、LESTINO MARESCAwill join her sister in the fleet of the AE6/Lion loop on 28 March in Ningbo,whilethe MSC RAYA will start her maiden voyage on 9 April in Shanghai for the AE55/Griffin service.Also,in April will Hapag-Lloyds 23666 TEU BERLIN EXPRESS,the first of 12 LNG-powered megamaxes for the carrie

7、r,join one of THEAlliances FarEast North Europe loops.The new megamax ships will hit the market at a time of weakening demand on the main East West trades.202320242025XXXNPXMGXXXXNPXMGXXXXNPXMGXMSC01914123016154Maersk Group0200900902M021141320 2M expires in 2024CMA CGM Group22012110191COSOC/OOCL0160

8、660130Evergreen0200111072OCEAN Alliance256122871293Hapag-Lloyd036035001ONE4356210100HMM0001120600Yang Ming000000000THE Alliance461171766101Zim3801220100Wan Hai Lines090060010TOTAL949313285138404Source:AlphalinerUNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)High level market developmentDGF Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|

9、March 202341)Real GDP,Copyright IHS Markit,now part of S&P Global,Q4 2022 Update 8 Dec 22.All rights reserved;2)IHS Markit,now part of S&P Global,Q3 2022 Update 5 Sep 22.All rights reserved;3&4)Surcharges related to e.g.,equipment&space availability are not reflected in WCI&SCFI;3)Drewry,in USD/40ft

10、 container,including BAF&THC bothends,42 individual routes,excluding intra-Asia routes;4)Shanghai Shipping Exchange,in USD/20ft ctnr&USD/40ft ctnrfor US routes,including BAF,EBAF,CAF,PSS,WRS,PCS&SCS/SCF/PTF/PCC,excl.THC,15 routes from Shanghai;5)Source:DHLECONOMIC OUTLOOK GDP GROWTH BY REGION1)INFLA

11、TION,YOY in%2)WORLD CONTAINER INDEX(WCI)3)SHANGHAI CONTAINERIZED FREIGHT INDEX(SCFI)4)6,00002,00010,0004,0008,00012,000Q122Q1 21Q2Q3Q4Q2Q3Q4Q1236,0002,00001,0004,0003,0005,000Q1 21Q4Q2Q3Q122Q2Q3Q4Q123BUNKER PRICES5)ForecastActualActualForecast8009007004005001,2006001,0001,100M22AMJJASONDJ2330%2022F

12、2023F 2024F 2025F 2026FCAGR(2023-26)AMER 2.2%0.2%1.5%2.0%2.1%1.9%ASPA 3.4%3.8%4.6%4.3%4.3%4.4%EURO 2.3%-0.6%1.8%2.1%1.8%1.9%MEA 5.0%3.1%3.4%3.3%3.0%3.2%DGF World2.8%1.4%2.8%3.0%2.9%2.9%-101234567892022F2017201820192026F20202024F2023F20212025FCNDEJPUSUKVLSFIFO 380UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Major trades Mark

13、et outlook March 2023 month-on-month development5Source:DHL*incl Mexico and Central America/CenacStrong Increase+Strong Decline-Moderate Decline-Moderate Increase+No Change=KEYImport regionCapacityRateAMNO=AMLA&MX=-ASPA=/-MENAT=/-SSA=/-EUROPEImport regionCapacityRateEURO=-AMNO=AMLA=EC/+WC=EC/+WCASPA

14、=/-MENAT-+OCEANIA=-ASIA PACIFICImport regionCapacityRateEURO=AMLA=-ASPA+=MENAT+-SSA=/-NORTH AMERICAImport regionCapacityRatesEURO=-AMNO=-ASPA=MENAT=-SSA=LATIN AMERICA*DGF Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|March 2023UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Market outlook March 2023Ocean Freight rates Asia-Pacific expor

15、ts6ASPA-EUROASPA-AMNOASPA-AMLAASPA-MENATASPA-ASPASource:DHLThe blank sailing program continues after CNY break to balance out demand and supply.The port situation globally is improving on both the East and West Coast with vessel dwell decreasing week over week due to softening demand.The volume reco

16、very in March remains slow and carriers are looking for more support.After Februarys blank voyage program and waves of GRI,the rate level of both East Coast and West Coast had been pulled up by 70-90%compared to pre-CNY level.Capacity will resume to 100%in March,market is expecting the rates in 1H t

17、o be maintained as the rolling pool effect,and subsequently coming down in 2H March.Caribbeans including Panama is open in March.Middle East markets are facing strong volume surge in view of early Eid holidays this year.Coupled with blank sailings starting from Pre Lunar New Year,GRIs are taking pla

18、ce strongly for the Gulf/Red Sea markets.East MED market is affected by blank sailing programs especially from The Alliance but extra loaders deployed by non-Alliance members are counterbalancing capacity thereby diminishing possibility of immediate GRIs.However,stronger forecasts to TR/IL can be se

19、en from customers from mid Feb onwards which could see GRI possibility from March.Earthquake in TR/SY is affecting South-Eastern ports and Iskenderun is now not operational until further notice.African markets are lull but more blank sailings are taking place from carriers to stop rate erosion.In ge

20、neral,Marchs outlook show signs of volume surge especially for Middle East markets.Rate continue to slide but at a much slower pace as capacity of several location had been reported tight.This was resulted from the CNY blank sailing arrangements where roll pool were accumulated at origin and transsh

21、ipment ports.Time-sensitive cargoes are recommended to load on direct service to prevent any potential delay at transshipment port.In general,carriers have positive outlook in coming months with CN resuming production post CNY.DGF Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|March 2023UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Mar

22、ket outlook March 2023Ocean Freight rates Other major trades7EURO-AMNOEURO-ASPA+MEAAMNO-EUROAMNO-ASPAAMLA ExportsSource:DHLPorts in Europe and North America remain fluent.Inland transport situation in Europe is generally sufficient but a series of strikes in various countries may lead to short term

23、disruptions and impacting the productivity.Even though the overall situation improved significantly,capacity constraints within the rail yards and chassis shortages still occur throughout the US.Seasonal weather delays have to be expected for truck and rail moves in Canada and the US.Load weight res

24、trictions(Spring Thaw Regulation)will come into effect as of March 6th,2023 for all truck moves within or through to province of Quebec.Schedule integrity improved further as less port omissions are seen since the vessels are catching up to their original schedule.Vessel space is generally available

25、 on short notice but can be tight on certain departures.Asia:space situation is still relaxed.No issues with capacity only vessel delays,even though a high number of blank sailings in March are expected.Rates are still decreasing slightly and are on a very low level.AU/NZ:no space issues any longer

26、and decreasing rates on both services.MEA:Space is OK.Rates are decreasing slightly.No issues with equipment.Capacities into East Med available and rates soften for short-and long-term contracts.The FAK rates are now stable after seeing some reductions in Jan/Feb.There is no change in capacity.Sched

27、ules and services are now returning to some normalcy.Rates are very stable.Capacity is up and carriers are actively looking for freight.AMLA AMNO&INTRA:NAC short term/long term pricing is flexible with free time conditions.Spot pricing is very fluid,with aggressive levels ex BR&MX in particular.Spac

28、e is opening up and readily available.Carriers monitoring heavily allocation use&no show bookings.Booking forecasts remain mandatory.AMLA ASPA:Good space availability,due to low demand.Stable rates for same reason.AMLA EURO,MENAT&SSA:Mexico exports to N.Euro,Med and Mideast have softened.Vessels are

29、 open.In the middle of contracting season,SAEC market continues the fast,downwards trend to EURO and Med.Rates are back to pre-Covid levels.Only Central America exports and trades to Africa remain at high levels.DGF Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|March 2023UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Economic outlook&d

30、emand evolution The global economy moves forward,averting recession8Source:IHS Markit,now part of S&P Global,IHS Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing,a PMI at 50 is considered neutral,expanding above 50,and business shrinking below 50The eurozone may avert a recession,but economic conditions remai

31、n challenging.Owing to mild winter weather,high natural gas storage levels,and falling energy prices,the risk of a severe recession has been averted.Consumer and business sentiment has improved.Despite easing,consumer price inflation remains high,at 8.5%YoY in January,eroding household incomes.Risin

32、g interest rates,tightening credit standards,and housing marketcorrections will impede near term grow.Asia Pacific will lead all regions in growth as mainland China re-opens.The shift in policy focus from zero-COVID to economic stimulus has advanced mainland Chinas growth.Tourism surged during the L

33、unar New Year holidays.However,manufacturing activity has remained sluggish,weak export demand.Consumers remain cautious,saving at a high rate and refraining from large purchases that require financing.Real GDP growth should pick up to 5.6%in 2024 before resuming a long-run deceleration.Although gro

34、wth in other parts of Asia Pacific will moderate in 2023,IN,VN,PH,&KH will achieve real GDP growth rates above 5.0%.However,tightening financial conditions and downturns in segments of the electronics industry will lead to more subdued growth in KR,TW,MY,AU,&NZ.The Middle East and North Africa(MENA)

35、regions growth outlook remains a tale of two halves.With the oil price remaining at around USD90 per barrel and the global outlook for oil demand reasonably solid,the regions oil exporters expect robust growth in 2023 and 2024.In contrast,several oil-importing countries,including Egypt and Tunisia,a

36、re confronted with a difficult global financial environment and expect growth to slow in the near term.In January,the JPMorgan Global Composite Output Index(compiled by S&P Global)climbed 1.6 points to 49.8,signaling a stabilization in economic activity.The global services PMIadvanced 2.0 points to

37、50.1,while the manufacturing PMIedged up 0.4 point to 49.1.Input costs accelerated,while output price inflation continued to ease.The US economy enters 2023 with a new burst of energy.In January,unemployment rate fell to 3.4%,its lowest level since May 1969.After declines in November and December,re

38、tail sales and manufacturing production posted strong rebounds in January.IHS Markits latest US GDP tracking suggests that real GDP will decrease at a modest 0.5%annual rate in the first quarter of 2023,pulled down by a sharp reduction in inventory accumulation and further declines in residential co

39、nstruction and business equipment investment.Consumer spending remains on a slow growth path,supported by risingemployment and savings accumulated during the pandemic but restrained by rising interest rates and rising debt.After 2.1%growth in 2022,we project US real GDP to increase 0.7%in 2023 and 1

40、.6%in 2024.EUROPEAMERICASASIA PACIFICEMERGING&DEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEMAND DEVELOPMENTDGF Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|March 2023UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Capacity 1/29Source:Alphaliner,Dynaliners,CarriersDGF Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|March 2023Commercially idle tonnage is now the largest c

41、ontributor to the inactive container fleet,after the segment recorded an increase of 13 ships for 114278 TEU over the pastfortnight.Overall,the global inactive container ship fleet remained on an upward trajectory this month,with a total increase in capacity of around 140000 TEU.In its latestsurvey

42、on 13 February,Alphaliner counted 366 inactive container ships with a combined capacity of 1616569 TEU.This is equivalent to 6.2%of the global cellular fleet-up from 5.7%two weeks ago.Despite weaker container markets,MSC continues to buy second-hand tonnage,taking advantage of the massive drop in as

43、set values in the last months.Among its latestacquisitions is the 4922 TEU classic panamax NYK DENEB(Hyundai 5000)which the Geneva-based carrier has snapped up from Singapore-based Eastern Pacific Shipping(EPS)at an undisclosed price.This further acquisition brings to 284 the number of second-hand c

44、ontainer vessels bought by MSC since the carrier embarked on its shipbuying spree inAugust 2020.ZIM has announced a significant restructuring of its standalone Asia-US East Coast ZIM Xpress Baltimore loop(ZXB).The Suez Canal-routed service will become aneastbound Asia-USEC round-the-world loop with

45、an extra call at Kingston in Jamaica to connect Southeast Asia and China with ZIMs Latin America regional network,Philadelphia and the US Gulf.ZIM currently deploys five ships of 2700 4250 TEU on the ZBX,which is only half the number of ships needed for weekly sailings.Startingfrom late February,the

46、 Asian rotation will be extended to include Jakarta,Laem Chabang and Haiphong.Ships will sail from Asia to ZIMs hub at Kingston via the PanamaCanal.Norfolkwill be added as extracall in the USA,whereafter the vessels will returnto Southeast Asia via the SuezCanal.MSC extends its Asia US West Coast st

47、andalone Sentosa service to North India and Sri Lanka.This will not only create direct connections between Nhava Sheva,Mundra,Colombo,the main Southeast Asian ports and the USWC,but also offer additional capacity from Korea,North and Central China,Taiwan and South China to India on thereturn leg.The

48、 Sentosa service was launched in April 2021 outside the scope of the 2M Vessel Sharing Agreement with Maersk as a replacement for the direct linksbetween Laem Chabang,Singapore,Long Beach and Oakland provided by the former 2M Europe Asia USWC AE6 TP2/Lion Jaguar pendulum service.Thispendulum service

49、 was split in March 2021,leaving Laem Chabang at that time with a direct 2M connection to/from Europe only.During the COVID-19 pandemic,thestandaloneSentosa loop provided MSC with much needed extra loadercapacity to cope with the veryhigh cargo demand onthe Transpacific.The planned upgrade ofthe Zim

50、 ContainerPacific(ZCP)to a fleet of15000TEU ships will also see ZIM make some rotationchanges to this FarEast US East Coast loop.ZIM,which is the only vessel operator on this service,will implement these changes in coordination with its VSA partners Maersk and MSC,who will also modify a jointly-oper

51、ated Far East US East service on which ZIM is a slotter.The ZIM-operated ZCP will cease calling at the ports of Jacksonville,Florida,and Wilmington,North Carolina,inthe USA.Instead,the service,on which Maersk(TP10)and MSC(Amberjack)areco-loading,will howeverstart calling at Norfolk,Virginia.UNCLASSI

52、FIED(PUBLIC)Capacity 2/210Source:Alphaliner,Dynaliners,CarriersDGF Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|March 2023ZIM has announced that it will launch a new independent weekly service between the US East Coast and the West Coast of South America(WCSA).The new line brandedZIM Colibri Express(ZCX)will

53、 place emphasis on refrigerated cargoes from Chile,Peru,Ecuador and Colombia.The ZCX will call at Philadelphia,Miami,Kingston,Buenaventura,Guayaquil,Callao,SanAntonio,Callao,Guayaquil,Cartagena(Colombia),Kingston,Philadelphia.The loop will turn in six weeks,using six yet unnamed vessels of 1700 TEU,

54、all fitted with a substantial number of reefer plugs.The ZCX is the second direct container service launched in the USEC-WCSAtrade routeinthe space of onlytwo months.It followsthe start inDecember ofa weekly USEC-WCSA service by CMA CGM,the Americas XL.Maersk has announced the temporary suspension o

55、fits standalone Southeast Asia-Far East-US East Coast TP20 service.This Asia-North America loop turns in ten weekswith 10classic panamax ships of 4100 4800TEU and connects Jakarta,CaiMep,Shanghai,Ningbo,Busan(PanamaCanal)Mobile,Newark (SuezCanal)Jakarta.The suspension until further notice is a conse

56、quence of forecast reductions in global demand,which prompted Maersk to act and adapt its network capacity.In theforthcoming weeks,several ships will end their voyages in China,which means that the vessels still can act as local feeders from Jakarta to China for Indonesian export cargoto the US West

57、 Coast and the US Gulf.Export containers from Jakarta to the US East Coast will be carried by ships of Maersks regional carrier Sealand Asia to Singapore orTanjungPelepas fortranshipment onthe 2M/Zim FarEast-USECTP11/Elephant/ZNF and TP17/America/Z7S services.Two years after temporarily suspending t

58、he loop,MSC will soon re-introduce its Far East-Med Dragon service.This time around,the somewhat revamped loop will offernew direct connections between the Far East,the Italian port of Naples,and Ashdod in Israel.The former Dragon was one of four Asia Med loops operated under the 2MVessel Sharing Ag

59、reement of MSC and Maersk.Its closure was announced in March 2020 when,in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak,cargo demand from countries in theMediterranean Sea region reduced notably.The new Dragon,which is to be re-launched from Shanghai on 15 March,will again focus on the Italian and French market

60、s,butit will notserve Beirutor anySpanishports.Instead,it will call at Ashdod to broaden MSCs coverage of Israel.South Korean carrier HMM has turned to two compatriot shipyards for the procurement of nine 9000 TEU container ships with methanol dual-fuel propulsion.According toa filing to the Korean

61、Stock Exchange KRX from 14 February,HMM will invest a total of KRW 1412820 M(USD 1.12 bn)in the nine new ships.Based upon the contractuallystipulated exchange rate,this translates to USD 124.28 M per vessel.Seven of the ships will be built at the KSOE Groups Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries shipyard a

62、nd twounits will come from HJ Shipbuilding.The yards areexpected to build individual,though very similar designs.Deliveriesareexpected to begin in mid-2025 and the lastvessels are believed due in May of 2026.With the nine additional orders,HMM has added 81000 TEU of capacity to its newbuilding pipel

63、ine which now stands at 265000TEU and 26 vessels.UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Carriers(1/2)11Source:Alphaliner,Dynaliners,CarriersDGF Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|March 2023Maersk Group posted a record operating profit(EBIT)of USD 30.8 bn for 2022,beating last years earnings by 57%,but the group warne

64、d financial results for this year couldbe a fraction of its latest earnings.At a segment level,Maersks Ocean division posted EBIT of USD 29.1 bn for 2022(2021:USD 17.9 bn)on revenues of USD 64.3 bn(2021:48.2 bn).4thquarter earnings were lower than a year ago(USD 4.8 bn)as average rates slumped to US

65、D 1934 per TEU,and liftings fell to 5.6 mTEU Maerks lowestquarterlyliftings since 2017.Indeed,the carrierconfirmed lower volumes,ratherthan lower rates,drove the earningsdecline in the last three months ofthe year.HMM increased its group net profit by 89%to KRW 10.1 trn(USD 7.9 bn)in 2022,but saw a

66、sharper-than-average drop in container earnings in the 4thquarter.Operatingincome for container activities reached KRW 1.2 trn(USD 975 M)for the last three months of the year,less than half the KRW 2.6 trn recorded for the previous quarter.Itwas the third consecutive quarterly fall in container earn

67、ings for the line.Average earnings dropped to USD 1620 per TEU from USD 2862 in Q3,while the Q4 containeroperating margin was 39%,its lowest since the end of 2020.Despite the soft conditions,HMM highlighted an overall 12.2%increase in freight rates over the year,driven bymore long-term contract busi

68、ness,though volumes fell 3.5%Hapag-Lloyd is proposing to distribute EUR 11.1 bn(USD 11.9 bn)in dividends to investors for the 2022 financial year,pending approval by its supervisory board in March.The payout,which is equivalent to EUR 63 per share,represents an 80%uplift on 2021 when stockholders re

69、ceived EUR 35 per share.Hapag-Lloyd recently announced EBITof EUR17.5bn for2022,up from EUR 9.4bn the previous year.Orient Overseas Container Line(OOCL)reported a 35%year-on-year decline in revenues to USD 3.2 bn in Q4 2022,as the lines average freight rates dropped to USD 1822per TEU.The biggest co

70、ntraction was seen on the transpacific and Asia-Europe trades,where revenue fell 43%and 46%respectively to USD 996 M and USD 795 M versus ayear ago.However transatlantic revenues rose 28%.Q4 liftings were down 5.6%.The result brings OOCLs total revenues for 2022 to USD 18.7 bn,an increase of 19%on t

71、heUSD15.7bn recorded for2021.Yearlyvolumes dropped 6%year-on-yearto 7.13mTEU,whileaverageearnings per TEU were USD2619.During fiscal 9M 2022(April-December),ONE posted a turnover of USD 24.6 million,14%more than in the year before.EBITDA and Net profit grew by similar percentagesto USD14.8billion(+1

72、5%)and USD13.8billion(+18%),respectively.This is alldespite a decline of 8%incarryingsto 8.48millionTEU.UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Carriers(2/2)12Source:Alphaliner,Dynaliners,CarriersDGF Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|March 2023Maersk Group confirmed Monday that it had filed a lawsuit against Japans S

73、hoei Kisen,Taiwanese carrier Evergreen,and the technical managers of the EVER GIVEN whichblocked the Suez Canal for a period of six days in 2021.Maersk is claiming compensation for delay-related losses caused by the incident.The lawsuit has been filed in theDanish Maritime and Commercial High Court.

74、Shoei Kisen is the owner of the 20388 TEU vessel which ran aground in the Canal on 23 March 2021 while under charter byEvergreen,blocking the waterway and preventing traffic inboth directions.Maersk declined to confirmreports inthe Danishmedia that the claim is in excess ofUSD40M.French carrier CMA

75、CGM is set to use its increased liquidity to carry out the early redemption of its EUR 525 M bonds due 2026.The move is also expected to haveimplications for the companys financial reporting.CMA CGM will pay off the full principal amount of the 7.5%bonds as part of its debt reduction strategy initia

76、ted in late2020.With the redemption of the notes it remains to be seen if the worlds third largest container carrier,which is not a publicly-listed company,will continue to release itsfinancialresults,as required by the bond issue.Maersk has decided to unifyallits companies,such as Hamburg Sd and Se

77、aLand,plus its logistics and airfreight activities,under a single brand name.The re-brandingwillhappen over the course of the year and at different times for the various brands.Non-integrated elements,such as Svitser,APM Terminals and Maersk Container Industrywill continueto operate under their exis

78、ting names.UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Ports13Source:Alphaliner,Dynaliners,CarriersDGF Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|March 2023Container volumes at the port of Hamburg dropped 5.1%to 8.3 mTEU in 2022,mirroring a negative trend in many European ports during the year.Declines were even moresevere in the

79、 last quarter of the year as normal gains in the run-up to Christmas failed to materialize.Q4 volumes fell 12.3%year-on-year.With the decline,Hamburg falls to20th place in the global port rankings,overtaken by Laem Chabang.The Thai port has added more than 1 mTEU in throughput since 2020,while Hambu

80、rg has to date lostaround 250,000 TEU.Elsewhere in Europe,annual volumes at Antwerp-Bruges dropped 5.2%in 2022 to 13.5 mTEU,while results are still awaited at Rotterdam.However,with volumes already down 4.4%at the 9-month stage,it is also expected to post significant losses.The trend continued in Ja

81、nuary.COSCO reported a-20%year-on-yeardrop in monthly throughput at its Antwerp Gateway terminal,while CSP Zeebrugge recorded a massive-54%decline.Drops were recorded at most of its other Europeanterminals.By contrast,US ports largelymaintained their volumes in2022at a national level,albeit throughp

82、ut was significantly redistributed from west to east coast ports.UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Ocean Schedule Reliability 14Schedule reliability trending sidewardsSource:Sea Intelligence,DHLAfter a rapid increase in schedule reliability especially in the second half of 2022reliability seems to be trending sid

83、ewards lately,with the MoM increase of amarginal 0.1 percentage points to 56.6%in December.On a YoY level however,reliabilitywasup 24.8 percentage points.In December,schedule reliability improved in 26 of the 34 trade lanes whencompared to November,whileremainingunchanged on Asia-Oceania.Reliability

84、 increased by 0.6 ptp on Asia-North America West Coast,reaching41.2%,and increased by 1.7 ptp on Asia-North America East Coast to 37.2%MoM.Asia-North Europe registered improvements by 4.0 ptp MoM to 51.8%,whileAsia-Mediterranean saw schedule reliabilityincreaseby 3.8 ptp to 57.9%.Schedule reliabilit

85、y increased by 0.8 ptp on Transatlantic Eastbound anddecreased by-0.6 percentage points on the Westbound trade MoM,reaching49.8%and 37.3%,respectively.Asia-West Coast South America recorded the largest MoM improvement of 21.1ptp to 73.5%.On the other end,Africa-Asia recorded the largest MoM decline

86、in of-10.7 percentage points to 48.5%.SCHEDULE RELIABILITY(%)303540455055606570758085AFMDJAMJJSON2019202120202022DGF Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|March 2023UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)SUBSCRIBE TO OUR EMAIL ALERTSReceive our Air&Ocean Freight market updates and exclusive industry content directly in

87、your inbox.STAY INFORMEDSTAY IN TOUCH WITH THE EXPERTSARE YOU READY TO MOVE FORWARD?TALK TO A LOCAL FREIGHT FORWARDING EXPERTFind their contact details on the DGF Station Finder and let us simplify global trade for you.SPEAK WITH US GET A FREE,INSTANT QUOTATIONCompare rates&transit times for air,oce

88、an and rail freight on myDHLiQuote+Book.GET A QUOTEUNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)BACK-UP16UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Market outlook March 2023 Ocean Freight rates additional trades(1/2)17Source:DHLEURO-AMLA+MXAMLA:Further reductions received to WCSA.NAC rates continue to decrease slightly to ECSA,reaching new low le

89、vel as for WCSA.No space issues.MX:Market remains more stable than Latam,but with ongoing rate reductions or elimination of PSS surcharges.No space issues.EURO-MENATspace and equipment is available.Demand and rates to Middle East remain at a stable level.Capacity into East Med available,along with a

90、 slight downfall in rates.EURO-SSASouth Africa:Schedule reliability is still affected by various coincidents(strike actions in South Africa,industrial action in Rotterdam,heavy weather conditions in the Bay of Biscay and further operational delays in Cape Town).West Africa:space constrains softening

91、 and carriers are able to offer allocation on shorter terms.Still a pre-booking period of a couple of weeks in advance needs to be considered.Congestion situation in major transshipment hubs remains stable.East Africa:space situation remians soft.Congestion in the major transshipment hubs is easing

92、up.AMNO-MENATCapacity is opening up for service to Mideast,North Africa and TR/EG.Rates are softening.Turkey/Syria earthquake leaves Iskenderun,TR port closed indefinitely with Mersin,TR port likely taking all cargo destined to Iskenderun,including humanitarian relief.AMNO-SSACapacity is opening up

93、for service to East,South and West Africa,and carriers are hinting at softening rates.Services are settling for now,with carriers finding their groove in the market.AMNO-AMLAVessel reliability increasing month on month creating fluid conversations with carriers.Space constraints easing at Gulf Ports

94、 and bottlenecks at transshipment hubs dissipating.NAC&allocation negotiations are flexible.Booking forecasts remain mandatory.DGF Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|March 2023UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Market outlook March 2023 Ocean Freight rates additional trades(2/2)18Source:DHLEURO MED-AMNOWeak deman

95、d.Rates reduced in January and further reductions expected during Q1.EURO MED-AMLAECSA and WCSA trade are both stableEURO MED-ASPA and MENATASPA:rates reductions depending on the service and allianceMENAT:stable with slight softening of ratesEURO MED-SSArate reductions depending on the service and a

96、llianceASPA-SPACVolume recovery after CNY is still slow and do not foresee any sudden surge in volumes expected in March23 yet.NEA and SEA into AU/NZ rates continue to reduce due to lack of volumes overall.Cyclone have hit NZ which caused bad weather situation and disruptions from 1st-15th Feb23,NZ

97、congestion is expected to worsen with the Cyclone hit in March23.Carriers are willing to lower rates for firm spot volumes to gain more volumes.DGF Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|March 2023UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)2.6 mTEU+3.3%6.7 mTEU+3.8%Market volume 2022 202619Source:Seabury Dec22 updateN O R T

98、HA M E R I C AI n c l.M E X I C O4.6 mTEU+1.8%1.6 mTEU+2.1%1.7 mTEU+2.3%1.7 mTEU+2.5%N O R T HA M E R I C AI n c l.M E X I C OL A T I NA M E R I C AE U R O P EI n c l.M E D15.6 mTEU+3.1%4.9 mTEU+1.5%3.6 mTEU+1.9%23.8 mTEU+3.6%1.5 mTEU+2.7%6.3mTEU+4.2%F A R E A S TI N T R A A S I Aexcl.Oceania42.1 mT

99、EU+3.5%3.0 mTEU+4.9%1.6 mTEU+3.0%L A T I NA M E R I C AM I D D L E E A S T&N O R T H A F R I C AGLOBAL CONTAINER TRADE 140.7 mTEU 2022e+3.3%CAGR 2023e 2026e3.2 mTEU+3.3%3.3 mTEU+3.1%I N T R A M E N A T2.7 mTEU+3.4%DGF Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|March 2023UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)State of the ind

100、ustry Ocean Carrier alliances20HAPAG-LLOYDONEYANG MINGHMMTHE ALLIANCEOCEAN ALLIANCEOOCLCMA CGMCHINA COSCO SHIPPINGEVERGREEN2MMAERSK LINEMSCSource:CarriersDGF Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|March 2023UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Acronyms and Explanations Ocean Freight glossary21AMLALatin AmericaOWSOverwe

101、ight SurchargeAMNONorth AmericaPHPhilippinesARArgentinaPMA-Pacific Maritime Association ASPAAsiaPacificPNWPacific North West BRBrazil Ppt.Percentage pointsCAGRCompound Annual Growth RatePSWPacific South West CENACCentral Amercia and CaribbeanQoQQuarter on quarterCNCCNC Line(Cheng Lie Navigation Co.L

102、td.)SAECSouth America East CoastDGDangerous Goods SAWCSouth America WestCoastDWTDead Weight Tonnage SOC-Shipper Owned ContainerEBEastboundSOLAS Safety of Life at SeaECSAEast Coast South America(synonym for SAEC)SPRC South Peoples Republic of China South ChinaECRS-Emergency Cost Recovery SurchargeSSA

103、Sub-Saharan AfricaEGLVEvergreen Marine CorpSSLSteam Ship LineEUROEuropeTThousandsGRIGeneral Rate IncreaseTA-Trans AtlanticHMMHyundai TEUTwenty foot equivalent unit(20 container)HLHapag-LloydTSATrans Pacific Stabilization AgreementHSFOHigh-Sulphur Fuel Oil(3.5%Sulphur)USGCUS Gulf CoastHSUDHamburg Sd

104、US FMCUS Federal Maritime Commission HWSHeavy Weight SurchargeUSECUS East CoastIAIntra AsiaUSWCUS West Coast IPBCIndia Pakistan Bangladesh Ceylon(=Sri Lanka)VGMVerified Gross Mass IPIInland Point IntermodalVLCSVery Large Container ShipISCIndian Sub Continent(synonym for IPBC)VLSFOVery Low-Sulphur Fu

105、el OilMEA-Middle East and AfricaVSAVessel Sharing AgreementMENATMiddle East and North AfricaWBWestboundMLMaersk LineWCSAWest Coast South America(synonym for SAWC)mn MillionsWHLWanHaiMoMMonth-on-MonthWRSWar Risk SurchargeNOONon-operating(vessel)ownersYMLYang Ming Line NOR-Non-operating reeferYoYYear-on-YearOCRSOperational Cost Recovery surchargeYTDYear-to-DateOOCLOrient Overseas Container LineTHEAThe AllianceSource:DHLDGF Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|March 2023