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1、U N I T E D N AT I O N S C O N F E R E N C E O N T R A D E A N D D E V E L O P M E N TOpening green windowsTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT2023TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023ii 2023,United NationsAll rights reserved worldwideRequests to reprodu

2、ce excerpts or to photocopy should be addressed to the Copyright Clearance Center at .All other queries on rights and licences,including subsidiary rights,should be addressed to:United Nations Publications405 East 42nd StreetNew York,New York 10017United States of AmericaEmail:publicationsun.orgWebs

3、ite:https:/shop.un.org/The designations employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country,territory,city or area or of its authorities,or concerning the

4、delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.Mention of any firm or licensed process does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations.This publication has been edited externally.United Nations publication issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and DevelopmentUNCTAD/TIR/2022ISBN:978-92-1

5、-113085-0eISBN:978-92-1-002344-3ISSN:2076-2917eISSN:2224-882XSales No.E.22.II.D.53OPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023iiiNOTEWithin the UNCTAD Division on Technology and Logistics,the Technology and Innovation Policy Research Se

6、ction carries out policy-oriented analytical work on the impact of innovation and new and emerging technologies on sustainable development,with a particular focus on the opportunities and challenges for developing countries.It is responsible for the Technology and Innovation Report,which seeks to ad

7、dress issues in science,technology and innovation that are topical and important for developing countries,and to do so in a comprehensive way with an emphasis on policy-relevant analysis and conclusions.The Technology and Innovation Policy Research Section supports the integration of STI in national

8、 development strategies and in building up STI policy-making capacity in developing countries;a major instrument in this area is the programme of Science,Technology and Innovation Policy Reviews.In this report,the terms country/economy refer,as appropriate,to territories or areas.The designations of

9、 country groups are intended solely for statistical or analytical convenience and do not necessarily express a judgement about the stage of development reached by a particular country or area in the development process.Unless otherwise indicated,the major country groupings used in this report follow

10、 the classification of the United Nations Statistical Office.These are:Developed countries:the member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD)(other than Chile,Mexico,the Republic of Korea and Turkey),plus the European Union member countries that are not OECD mem

11、bers(Bulgaria,Croatia,Cyprus,Lithuania,Malta and Romania),plus Andorra,Liechtenstein,Monaco and San Marino.Countries with economies in transition refers to those of South-East Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States.Developing economies,in general,are all the economies that are not specifi

12、ed above.For statistical purposes,the data for China do not include those for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China(Hong Kong,China),Macao Special Administrative Region of China(Macao,China)or Taiwan Province of China.An Excel file with the main country groupings used can be downloade

13、d from UNCTADstat at:http:/unctadstat.unctad.org/EN/Classifications.html.References to sub-Saharan Africa include South Africa unless otherwise indicated.References in the text to the United States are to the United States of America and those to the United Kingdom are to the United Kingdom of Great

14、 Britain and Northern Ireland.The term“dollar”($)refers to United States dollar,unless otherwise stated.The term“billion”signifies 1,000million.Annual rates of growth and change refer to compound rates.Use of a dash()between dates representing years,such as 19881990,signifies the full period involve

15、d,including the initial and final years.An oblique stroke(/)between two years,such as 2000/01,signifies a fiscal or crop year.A dot(.)in a table indicates that the item is not applicable.Two dots(.)in a table indicate that the data are not available,or are not separately reported.A dash()or a zero(0

16、)in a table indicates that the amount is nil or negligible.Decimals and percentages do not necessarily add up to totals because of rounding.OPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023ivFOREWORDThe world finds itself trapped in the grip

17、 of cascading crises from global poverty and inequality,to hunger and conflicts that require collective action to address.In particular,climate change is a global challenge that calls for global solutions.The battle to keep the 1.5-degree limit alive will be won or lost this decade.We need to act to

18、gether to close the emissions gap,and transform our energy systems to secure the liveable future required by people and planet alike.The theme of this years report Opening green windows:Technological opportunities for a low-carbon world reminds us that innovation and frontier technologies can drive

19、the transformative solutions we need.We need a revolution in renewable energy innovation and technology.Supported by adequate regulations,incentives and investment,renewables provide a clear path to real energy security,affordable power prices and sustainable employment opportunities.Above all,we mu

20、st support developing countries as they make the transition to renewable energy.A renewables revolution means sharing knowledge and technologies with all countries,equally.Currently,the majority of global renewable energy capacity,technology and expertise is housed within a handful of countries.As t

21、he world transitions to a net-zero,resilient and just future,we cannot allow developing countries to fall behind.A renewables revolution also means ensuring that policies and processes are in place to reduce market risk and attract investments to the renewable energy transition across developing cou

22、ntries.Together with international financial institutions and the private sector,developed countries must level the playing field to fast-track renewable energy projects in developing countries.The fight against climate change is everybodys fight.By working in solidarity and creating the conditions

23、for the renewables revolution,we can harness the full potential of a just transition for all countries,and pass on a greener,prosperous and more sustainable world to our children and grandchildren.Antnio GuterresSecretary-GeneralUnited NationsOPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a lo

24、w-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023vPREFACEDeveloping countries are facing a series of interconnected and cascading crises,including war in Ukraine,the COVID-19 pandemic,the impacts of climate change,and disruptions in geopolitics.To address these challenges,the Technology and Innova

25、tion Report(TIR)2023 focuses on the opportunities presented by the renewable energy revolution in the Global South.These opportunities not only offer the chance to build resilience and mitigate climate disaster,but also to spur economic and technological development,allowing developing countries to“

26、leap”out of the cascade of crisis and move forward.The report provides a comprehensive picture of green and frontier technologies today,including analyses of their market size,potential for employment creation,and most promising sectors.We cover 17 frontier technologies such as artificial intelligen

27、ce,Internet of Things,green hydrogen,and electric vehicles.The report estimates that these technologies already represented a$1.5trillion market in 2020.Thanks to their rapid growth,by 2030 their market value could reach over$9.5trillion about three times the current size of the Indian economy.The r

28、eport presents a critical assessment of the potential catch-up trajectories in renewable energy technologies in the Global South,sharing lessons from various developing countries in Latin America,Asia,and Africa.The report also presents very original methodology that identifies which are the most co

29、mplex sectors(requiring more technological capacities)with the lowest carbon footprints.This methodology can help various stakeholders in developing countries in designing a roadmap that selects the greenest paths for economic diversification,while taking advantage of Industry 4.0 to get into specif

30、ic global value chain(GVC)niches.This TIRs novel research directly addresses one of the four major transformation of the Bridgetown Covenant-Transforming economies through diversification.This report leaves us with three key messages:First,developing countries must strategically position themselves

31、to catch the green technological revolution early.Access to technologies and knowhow is not enough timing is especially crucial.Without it,the green revolution will not close but widen global inequalities.Second,international business-as-usual conditions mean that developing countries cannot on thei

32、r own take advantage of these green windows of opportunity.Immediate support from the international community is needed to gather enough resources and build the required knowhow.It is also critical that we improve the consistency of the trading system with the Paris Agreement,so that green technolog

33、y can be effectively transferred to developing nations.Third,lastly:to address the current technological challenge we need two key things agency and urgency.The fight against climate change and inequalities is everybodys fight if we all share the same problem,then we must also share the same tools t

34、o solve it.But time is running out.And if this window of opportunity closes,it may well be the last one.Rebeca Grynspan Secretary-General United Nations Conference on Trade and DevelopmentOPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023viAC

35、KNOWLEDGEMENTSThe Technology and Innovation Report 2023 was prepared under the overall guidance of Shamika N.Sirimanne,Director of the Division on Technology and Logistics,by a team comprising Clovis Freire(team leader),Fabianna Bacil,Ni Zhen and Zenathan Hasannudin.Rasmus Lema(Associate Professor,U

36、NU-MERIT),Roberta Rabellotti(Professor of Economics,University of Pavia),in collaboration with Dalila Ribaudo(Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Economics,University of Pavia),and Andreas Stamm(Senior Researcher,German Institute for Development Policy,DIE)were part of the team as external consultant ex

37、perts.Eugenia Nunez and Maria Godunova(UNCTAD)and Wai Kit Si Tou(UNECE)provided substantive inputs.Laura Cyron and Liping Zhang provided substantive comments and suggestions.Research support was provided by Carlos Leiva,George Colville,Hao Chen,Haomin Zhang,Henrique Pinto Coelho,John Chua,Olivia Dal

38、y,Seiana Priante and Taiye Chen during their internship at UNCTAD.The work of the team was supervised by Angel Gonzlez Sanz.Comments and suggestions received from experts attending an ad-hoc informal expert consultation held online in September 2021 and October 2022,and the online peer review meetin

39、g organized in October 2022,are also gratefully acknowledged.The experts included:Alejandro Lapova(UNIDO),Alfred Watkins(Global Solutions Summit),Anna Pegels(German Development Institute),Carlota Perez(Tallinn University of Technology),Dorothea Kleine(Sheffield Institute for International Developmen

40、t),Fernando Santiago(UNIDO),Jean-Eric Aubert(International Ocean University),Ludovico Alcorta(UNU-MERIT),Mia Mikic(ARTNeT,Asia Pacific Research and Training),Miriam Stankovich(Center for Digital Acceleration,DAI),Mulu Gebreeyesus(Barnard College),Rebecca Hanlin(Social Business Solutions East Africa

41、Limited),Richard Roehrl(DESA),Susan Cozzens(Georgia Tech),Valentina di Marchi(University of Padova),Xiaolan Fu(Oxford Department of International Development)and Wai Kit Si Tou(UNECE).The Division on Technology and Logistics would like to express its special thanks to David Jose Vivas Eugui,Miho Shi

42、rotori,and Taisuke Ito(Division on International Trade and Commodities),and Mia Mikic(ARTNeT,Asia Pacific Research and Training)for their valuable contributions to the trade and intellectual property rights policy issues discussed in Chapter 6.Their expertise and insights have greatly enriched the c

43、ontent and analysis of that chapter.Comments received from other UNCTAD divisions as part of the internal peer review process,as well as comments from the Office of the Secretary-General,are acknowledged with appreciation.Comments and suggestions by the following UNCTAD staff are also gratefully ack

44、nowledged:Andres Anzol,Anida Yupari,Bruno Antunes,Chantal Line Carpentier,Claudia Contreras,Dong Wu,Ebru Gokce-Dessemond,Sergio Alfredo Martinez Cotto and Zarja Vojta.The manuscript was substantively edited by Peter Stalker.Magali Studer designed the cover.The Layout was prepared by Nathalie Loriot

45、and Magali Studer.Infographics were prepared by Carlos Reyes,Gabriel Lora and Magali Studer.Malou Pasinos and Xiahui Xin provided administrative support.OPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023viiCONTENTSForeword.ivPreface.vAcknowle

46、dgements.viOverview.xv1.Green windows of opportunity.xv2.Moving fast with frontier technologies.xvi3.Laying the foundations.xvii4.Priorities for opening green windows.xxii5.International collaboration for more sustainable production.xxivI.Green windows of opportunity.1A.Green innovation.5B.Creating

47、green windows.6C.Alert and ready for change.7D.Catch-up trajectories .8II.Moving fast with frontier technologies.11A.Technologies in the fast lane.131.Creation and extinction of jobs.162.Knowledge on frontier technologies.173.Trade expansion.22B.The expansion of green frontier technologies .231.Gree

48、n hydrogen.262.Electric vehicles.29C.Ready to act.30III.Growth powered by renewable energy.37A.Opening green windows in developing countries.391.Solar PV.392.Biofuels.423.Green hydrogen .44B.Green windows of opportunity.471.Scenario 1 Windows open.482.Scenario 2 Windows to be open.493.Scenario 3 Win

49、dows within reach.504.Scenario 4 Windows in the distance.51C.Maturity and tradability of green technologies.511.Technological maturity.522.Tradability.53D.Requirements for opening green windows.541.Identify and switch.552.Assess and sustain sectoral systems.58OPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological oppor

50、tunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023viiiIV.Twin transitions for global value chains green and digital.65A.The greening of GVCs.671.Environmental upgrading.672.The twin transitions.693.Slow diffusion of digital technologies in latecomer countries.76B.Creating a twin tr

51、ansition.78V.Pathways to more complex and sustainable production.85A.Identifying greener production.88B.Paths to greener production .89C.Complexity and greenness.95D.Opportunities for greener production .100VI.International collaboration for more sustainable production.107A.Cooperating for green inn

52、ovation.1091.A widening North-South divide .1092.ODA for green innovation .1123.United Nations support for technology transfer.119B.Fostering international cooperation for green innovation .1211.Align trade with the Paris Agreement.1212.Reform international protection of IPRs for less technologicall

53、y advanced countries .1243.Partners for green technology .1264.Multilateral and open innovation .1275.Assessing technologies.1286.Regional and South-South STI .1297.A multilateral challenge fund“Innovations for Our Common Future”.130Annex A.Frontier technology trends.136A.Summary of frontier technol

54、ogies.1381.Artificial Intelligence .1382.Internet of things.1383.Big data.1394.Blockchain.1405.5G.1406.3D printing.1417.Robotics.1428.Drone technology.1429.Gene editing.14310.Nanotechnology.14411.Solar photovoltaic .14412.Concentrated solar power.14513.Biofuels.14514.Biogas and biomass.14615.Wind En

55、ergy.14616.Green Hydrogen.147OPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023ix17.Electric Vehicles.148B.Technical note .1491.Publications.1492.Patents.1503.Market size.1514.Frontier technology providers.1515.Frontier technology users.151An

56、nex B.Frontier technologies readiness index .154A.Results of the readiness for frontier technologies index.154B.Readiness for frontier technologies index results by selected groups.163C.Technical note readiness for frontier technologies index.168Annex C.Examples of catch-up trajectories in selected

57、green industries.1701.Biogas and biomass.1702.Concentrated Solar Power.1723.Wind power.1734.Electric Vehicles.175References.181OPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023xBOXESBox I 1 Overlapping technological waves.6Box II 1 China and

58、 the United States dominate patents on frontier technologies .19Box II 2 Green hydrogen standards and regulations .28Box II 3 Download speeds in China .32Box III 1 How China came to dominate the global PV market.40Box III 2 The Mekong power delta with the sun.41Box III 3 Green hydrogen is a game-cha

59、nger in South Africa.46Box III 4 Mission-oriented policymaking.55Box III 5 Political economy challenges of renewable energy sectors.56Box III 6 Renewable energy support mechanisms.57Box III 7 Promoting R&D in green areas.59Box IV 1 The impact of Industry 4.0 technologies in global value chains.69Box

60、 IV 2 Industry 4.0 technologies in mining .70Box IV 3 The strategic importance of sustainable smart ports.74Box IV 4 Examples of voluntary sustainability standards.75Box IV 5 A firm-level survey in developing countries.77Box V 1 Transforming economies through diversification.87Box V 2 Viet Nam thriv

61、es with foreign direct investment .93Box V 3 Latvia increases complexity through regional clusters.94Box V 4 Opportunities for green diversification.99Box V 5 Instruments for fostering green technologies.102Box VI 1 United Nations Climate Technology Centre and Network(CTCN).120Box VI 2 Selected elem

62、ents of the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights(TRIPS).124Box VI 3 2013 proposals by Ecuador to adapt the Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights .126Box VI 4 Examples of partnership-oriented approach to research.127Box VI 5 Examples of multilateral modes

63、 of research and research cooperation.128Box VI 6 Technology assessment elements in emerging economies.129OPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023xiFIGURESFigure 1 The sequence for opening green windows.xiiiFigure 2 Country share of

64、 publications and patents,by frontier technology(percentage).xivFigure 3 Patent maturity of frontier technologies.xvFigure 4 Readiness to benefit from the diffusion of Industry 4.0.xviFigure 5 Association between carbon footprint and product complexity,2018.xviiiFigure 6 Selecting realistic opportun

65、ities for diversification.xixFigure I 1 The great divide,rise in CO2 per capita,and waves of technological change.3Figure I 2 Catching up with green innovation.5Figure II 1 Frontier technologies covered in this report.13Figure II 2 Market size estimates of frontier technologies,$billion.14Figure II

66、3 Number of publications on frontier technologies,2000 2021.18Figure II 4 Number of patents for frontier technologies,2000 2021.18Figure II 5 Country share of publications,by frontier technology.18Figure II 6 Country share of patents,by frontier technology.19Figure II 7 Technology imports and export

67、s by top countries,2018-2021($billions).22Figure II 8 Installed renewable energy capacity,2020(percentage of world total).23Figure II 9 Installed renewable energy capacity by regions(percentage of world total).24Figure II 10 Top 10 countries in renewable energy sectors according to installed capacit

68、y(MW),2010 and 2020.25Figure II 11 The value chain of green hydrogen from inputs to production to final use.26Figure II 12 Main components of an electric vehicle.29Figure II 13 Top ten countries:electric vehicles stock 2010-2020.30Figure II 14 Average index score by development status.32Figure II 15

69、 Correlation between the index score and the adoption of selected frontier technologies,2021.33Figure II 16 Import value of selected frontier technologies($millions).33Figure II 17 Average index ranking by building block(selected country groupings).34Figure III 1 Processes for producing bioenergy.43

70、Figure III 2 Patent maturity of frontier technologies.53Figure IV 1 Steps for greening GVCs.68Figure IV 2 Readiness to benefit from the diffusion of Industry 4.0.76Figure V 1 Distribution of carbon emissions by products within sectors,2018.88Figure V 2 Distribution of index of carbon footprint,selec

71、ted countries 2010.89Figure V 3 Association between carbon footprint and product complexity,2018.89Figure V 4 Green outcomes and complexity by sector,2018.90Figure V 5 Change in complexity and carbon footprint,2000-2018.91Figure V 6 Examples of changes in complexity and carbon footprint,selected cou

72、ntries.92Figure V 7 Emulation vs innovation.97Figure V 8 Import substitution opportunities for diversification .98Figure V 9 Export opportunities for diversification.98OPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023xiiFigure V 10 Identific

73、ation and selection of realistic opportunities for diversification.101Figure VI 1 Changes in climate-related ODA 2012-2020.113Figure VI 2 Top ten sectors in 2020(bilateral provider perspective).113Figure VI 3 Financial instrument by the top ten recipients in 2020($millions,2020 prices).114Figure VI

74、4 Financial instrument by income group of recipients in 2020,$millions,2020 prices .114Figure VI 5 Top ten providers of green ODA and used financial instruments in 2020,$millions,2020 prices.115Figure VI 6 ODA for STI by sector,20002021.116Figure VI 7 ODA by STI category as percentage of total ODA f

75、or STI,2000 and 2020.116Figure VI 8 Total ODA for STI per region($million,2020 prices).117Figure VI 9 Top 10 donor countries of ODA targeting STI capacities in 2020,$millions,2020 prices).117Figure VI 10 Green ODA targeting STI capacities,2012-2020($million,2020 prices).118Figure VI 11 Pledge of cou

76、ntries to the GEF of the successive replenishment rounds.119Figure VI 12 Largest recipients of GEF Trust Fund by number of grants since GEF-5(2010).120OPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023xiiiTABLESTable 1 Four green window scena

77、rios.xviiTable II 1 Top frontier technology providers.15Table II 2 Key indicators.20Table II 3 Technical potential for producing green hydrogen at less than$1.50/kg(in exajoules)by 2050.27Table II 4 Readiness towards the use,adoption and adaptation of frontier technologies,selected countries.31Table

78、 III 1 Four green window scenarios .48Table III 2 Examples of opening green windows.49Table III 3 Examples of windows to be open.50Table III 4 Examples of windows within reach.50Table III 5 Examples of distant windows.51Table III 6 Maturity and tradability of different sustainable industries.52Table

79、 III 7 Three dimensions of tradability.54Table IV 1 Selected industry 4.0 technologies in manufacturing.71Table IV 2 Five types of GVC governance.73Table V 1 Degree of complexity of products that are greener than global average,2018.95Table V 2 Factors affecting complexity and carbon footprint .96Ta

80、ble VI 1 R&D expenditure,selected countries and regions(percentage of GDP).109Table VI 2 Researchers in R&D permillion inhabitants.110Table VI 3 Scientific and technical journal articles,2018.111Table VI 4 Top green patenting economies-cumulative number of patents,1975-2017 .111Table VI 5 Green pate

81、nts from emerging countries(number of patents andper cent of total).112Table VI 6 Green ODA as a percentage of all ODA in leading donor countries(2016/2017).112Table VI 7 Top reporters and exporters in countervailing actions,1995-2021.122Table 1 Frontier technologies covered in this report.136Table

82、2 Index score ranking.154Table 3 Index results-Small Island Developing States(SIDS).163Table 4 Index results-Least Developed Countries(LDCs).164Table 5 Index results-Landlocked Developing Countries(LLDCs).165Table 6 Index results-Sub-Saharan Africa.166Table 7 Indicators included in the index.168Tabl

83、e 8 Breakdown of principal components.169OPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023xvOVERVIEW1.GREEN WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITYIn 2023,the world faces severe social and economic challenges.While trying to recover from the COVID-19 pandemi

84、c,many countries are now coping with the repercussions of the war in Ukraine,which has not only caused immense suffering but has also heightened geopolitical tensions and created threats to global trade and energy and food security.The most difficult choices are in developing countries where this co

85、njuncture of crises threatens hard-won development gains.To eliminate poverty,they need diversified and more productive economies to create more and better jobs and boost household incomes.But faster economic growth will demand far more energy which,if sourced from fossil fuels,would sendmillions of

86、 tons of carbon billowing into the atmosphere.Developing countries need not,however,follow the historical pathways of carbon-fuelled growth if the global community is committed to equitable social,economic and technological transformations guided by the Sustainable Development Goals.The 2023 edition

87、 of the Technology and Innovation Report focuses specifically on what can be achieved by technological innovation,by opening green windows of opportunity.It does not suggest that these problems will be solved by technology alone,nor that new technology is necessarily beneficial since the gains for o

88、ne group can be detrimental for others.But it does argue that innovation and advances in science and technology,if guided by the Sustainable Development Goals,can be used to drive the world along more sustainable and equitable pathways,particularly in the generation and use of energy.The report is b

89、uilt around the concept of green innovation creating or introducing new or improved goods and services that leave lighter carbon footprints and open up green windows of opportunity.Developing countries now have opportunities to catch up,reduce poverty,and at the same time help tackle climate change

90、and set the world on a more sustainable course.For countries aiming to catch up with the more technologically advanced countries,switching green requires more than simple imitation;it demands creative adaptation and innovation.The pathways are likely to differ substantially from those taken by advan

91、ced economies.The figure below sets out the four main components of green innovation.The starting point is experimenting with new ideas and technologies and adapting these to local circumstances,values and priorities(Figure 1).To take advantage of these ideas,countries will need the appropriate infr

92、astructure and in the form of public goods through direct government intervention,supporting the establishment of new green sectors,for example,or introducing regulations such as on air or water pollution.Green innovation is also influenced by global agreements and agendas,rules,and mechanisms,espec

93、ially those related to climate change,such as the Paris Agreement.Figure 1 The sequence for opening green windowsSource:UNCTAD.ExperimentationHigher degree of experimentation and novelty:Limited opportunities for a path-following catch-upPublic goodsDriven by social value and the provision of climat

94、e-related public goodsDirected developmentSocial drive implies directed development:High levels of policy interventions Global agendasInfluenced by global agendasOPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023xvi2.MOVING FAST WITH FRONTIER

95、 TECHNOLOGIESAt the leading edge of green innovation are new and rapidly developing technologies that take advantage of digitalization and connectivity.The Report examines 17 of these frontier technologies from artificial intelligence(AI)to green hydrogen to biofuels highlighting their potential eco

96、nomic benefits and assessing country capabilities to use,adopt,and adapt these innovations.These technologies have experienced tremendous growth in the last two decades:in 2020 the total market value was$1.5trillion and by 2030 could reach$9.5trillion.Around half of the latter is for the Internet of

97、 things(IoT)which embraces a vast range of devices across multiple sectors.These technologies are supplied primarily by a few countries,notably the United States,China and countries in Western Europe.As with previous waves of automation,frontier technologies are both destroying old jobs and creating

98、 new ones.Current job expectations may be more pessimistic because of the increasing capacity of AI to mimic human intelligence.Nevertheless,most alarmist scenarios often fail to take into account that not all tasks in a job are automated,and,most importantly,that technology also creates new product

99、s,tasks,professions,and economic activities throughout the economy.The net impact on jobs will depend on the final balance between creation and extinction.For these new technologies,the knowledge landscape is dominated by the United States and China,with a combined 30per cent share of global publica

100、tions and almost 70per cent of patents(Figure 2).Other countries compete in specific categories,notably France,Germany,India,Japan,the Republic of Korea,and the United Kingdom.Figure 2 Country share of publications and patents,by frontier technology(percentage)Source:UNCTAD calculations based on dat

101、a from Scopus and PatSeer.All these technologies are at the frontiers of change,but some are more mature than others,as is evident by the record of patents and publications.On the basis of the years in which patents were first sought and the period over which the original patents were subsequently c

102、ited,the most mature technology is AI.Most patents for this technology were applied for in 2014 and cite patents on average from 2005,producing a difference of around 9 years.This may seem counterintuitive.But todays AI patents,such as those for autonomous vehicles and the metaverse,are technologica

103、lly closer to those for search engines and digital maps,and many of the underlying principles patented in 2005 are still valid.161768Industry 4.0 frontier technologies151669Green frontier technologies211564Other frontier technologiesOthersChinaUnited StatesPatentsPublications184933Industry 4.0 front

104、ier technologies95635Green frontier technologies402732Other frontier technologiesOPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023xviiFigure 3 Patent maturity of frontier technologiesSource:UNCTAD.Note:For each technology,the number in the b

105、ar graph shows the patent maturity,which is the difference between the weighted average patent application year and the weighted average year of the 20 most cited patents between 2000 and 2021.IoT,on the other hand,is relatively immature,with an average patent application year of 2017 and an average

106、 citation date of 2016.This suggests that the dominant design behind IoT innovation is being updated almost yearly,reflecting a technology that is still evolving fast.For developing countries that need to catch up,the more mature technologies may seem simpler and more affordable options since they d

107、emand less research and development.Biomass and solar PV,for example,have well-tested technologies that latecomers can absorb and use with imported machinery from the outside.For solar PV,for example,China initially imported foreign production machinery and benefited from economies of scale.However,

108、these markets may now be more difficult to enter since the incumbents will have developed strong and efficient production processes and are able to trade internationally at more competitive prices.3.LAYING THE FOUNDATIONSIf developing countries are to capture the economic gains associated with new t

109、echnologies,their firms must have the required capabilities.This includes not just scientific or technical skill,but also the necessary policies,regulations,and infrastructure.To assess national preparedness to equitably use,adopt and adapt frontier technologies,this report presents the 2023 results

110、 of the readiness index that combines indicators for ICT,skills,R&D,industrial capacity and finance.This ranking for 166countries is dominated by high-income economies,notably the United States,Sweden,Singapore,Switzerland,and the Netherlands.The second quarter of the list includes emerging economie

111、s notably Brazil,which 0123456789101.41IoT1.60Concentrated Solar Power2.08Blockchain2.84Nanotechnology3.28Big Data3.325G3.61Biofuels3.74Electric Vehicles4.32Gene Editing5.12Robotics5.22Drone Technology5.223D Printing5.69Wind Energy6.58Biogas and Biomass6.99Green Hydrogen7.94Solar PV8.72AIYearsFronti

112、er TechnologyOPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023xviiiis ranked at 40,China at 35,India at 46,the Russian Federation at 31,and South Africa at 56.Chinas lower-than-expected position in the ranking,when compared with its producti

113、ve and innovative capacities in frontier technologies,is due to urban-rural disparities in Internet coverage and broadband speed.Further behind are countries in Latin America,the Caribbean,and Sub-Saharan Africa,which are the least prepared to use,adopt and adapt frontier technologies and are at ris

114、k of missing current windows of opportunity.Data on individual components of the index highlights areas that need to be improved.Overall,developing countries as a group have lower rankings for their indicators on ICT connectivity and skills.The LDCs,LLDCs,and SIDS rank lower than 100 for all the ind

115、icators,with particular weaknesses in ICT infrastructure and research&development.The countries best placed to move to smart production are those with higher levels of skill and stronger manufacturing industries.The figure below shows the balance between workforce skills and market opportunities bas

116、ed on high-skill and technology-intensive manufacturing exports as a percentage of total exports,and high-skill employment as a percentage of the working population.Figure 4 Readiness to benefit from the diffusion of Industry 4.0Source:UNCTAD(2022).Industry 4.0 for Inclusive Development(United Natio

117、ns publication,Sales No.E.22.II.D.8,New York and Geneva).Note:The solid lines represent the global unweighted averages under these two indicators.Data labels use International Organization for Standardization economy codes.Windows opening and closingFor developing countries and specific renewable en

118、ergy products,the rapidly changing technological scene offers green windows of opportunity.Countries should take advantage of these now,if possible,since they are likely to close as other countries take over the markets.Otherwise,they may be firmly locked into fossil-fuel pathways,leaving the market

119、s entirely to foreign investors.Much depends on the national preconditions and capacities and willingness to take opportunities and respond strategically as they arise.102030405060700102030405060708090High-skill employment (percentage of working population)High skills but low opportunities High oppo

120、rtunities and skills Low opportunities and skills High opportunities but low skills High-skill and technology-intensive manufacturing exports(percentage of total exports)AFGALBDZAAGOARGAUSAUTBHRBGDBRBBELBTNBOLBRABRNBGRBFACMRCANCAFCHLCHNCOMCRICIVCUBCZEPRKCODDNKDJIDOMESTSWZETHFJIFINFRAGEODEUHNDHKGHUNI

121、SLINDIDNIRNIRQIRLISRITAJPNJORKAZKENKWTLAOLVALBNLUXMACMYSMLTMUSMEXMARNPLNLDNZLNGAMKDNOROMNPAKPANPHLPOLPRTQATKORMDAROURUSLCASTPSAUSRBSGPSVNSOMESPSURSWECHETWNTHATUNUKRGBRUSAVUTVNMOPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023xixLooking at re

122、newable energy technologies,there is significant variability in catch-up trajectories at the sector and country level.The table below considers four scenarios illustrating which windows have been open,or are within reach,and countries and technologies that have taken advantage of them.Table 1 Four g

123、reen window scenariosSource:UNCTAD.The best scenario is the one in which strong preconditions are combined with strong responses.For green hydrogen in Chile,for example,the country has adequate preconditions and can show a strong response in development of the technology.Brazil,on the other hand,is

124、in a strong position for biofuel.It has a long history of sugarcane cultivation and from the 1970s started to make significant investments in the technologies,while creating demand,and establishing a supportive framework.With that,the country has managed to catch up and become a global leader both i

125、n terms of technology,usage of ethanol,and fuel exports.However,the lack of strong preconditions does not mean that the window of opportunity is closed.Much depends on the responses at different levels of government and the involvement of various public and private stakeholders.For example,the Thai

126、government addressed weak initial preconditions for biofuel through strong policy responses.Countries should surpass their initial constraints if they want to reap economic gains.While the opportunities differ greatly from one renewable energy technology to another,there are two main stages for coun

127、tries switching green.The first is to identify and open windows of opportunity,based on the availability of natural resources,such as favourable wind conditions,and using policies to boost demand and national capacity to use or build the necessary technology.The second is to assess what is needed to

128、 sustain the processes.There are also likely to be feedback loops requiring regular adjustments.ReadinessStrongWeakStrongScenario 1:Windows open Solar PV,Biomass,CSP ChinaBioethanol BrazilHydrogen Chile(potentially)Scenario 2:Windows to be openSolar PV IndiaBiogas BangladeshCSP MoroccoWind ChinaWeak

129、Scenario 3:Windows within reachBiomass Thailand and Viet NamHydrogen NamibiaScenario 4:Windows in the distanceWind KenyaBioenergy Mexico and PakistanResponsesOPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023xxPathways to more complex and sus

130、tainable productionThe best direction for developing countries is to switch to products that are more complex,1 have greater value added and lower carbon footprints.In most low-income developing countries,economic diversification involves emulating industries in more developed countries a steady pro

131、gression that builds on existing industries it is thus path-dependent.If a country already has the capacity for manufacturing medium and high technology products,it is in a stronger position and can move in a number of directions.But if it is largely producing primary products,it has fewer starting

132、points.If basic technologies need to be learned or transferred from abroad,then innovation is likely to require greater government support.But whatever path they choose for switching green,governments in low and lower-middle-income developing countries have to act fast and decisively;otherwise,they

133、will be left further behind.Generally,as countries move from agriculture to industry,and to medium and high-tech manufacturing,complexity increases.But this does not necessarily lead to greener production.The less-complex sectors that also have lower carbon footprint include textiles,vegetable produ

134、cts,foodstuffs and footwear.The sectors that are more complex and have higher carbon footprints include chemicals and allied industries,metals and mineral products.However,much will depend on the product mix,because within each industry,one can find products in a range of carbon emissions-from below

135、 to above the global average.To help countries choose greener pathways UNCTAD has produced indices of economic complexity and carbon footprints for 43,000 products exported in international markets.As the product mix becomes more complex and more sophisticated,carbon emissions can fall per unit of G

136、DP,though if more products are being produced for more people total emissions will rise(Figure 5).Figure 5 Association between carbon footprint and product complexity,2018Source:UNCTAD.For selecting more complex and greener directions,governments should strengthen national capacities for analysing n

137、ew sectors(Figure 6).This will mean taking stock of the countrys existing technological and productive capacities and the availability of natural resource such as wind or agricultural waste.The evaluation can also take advantage of international tools,such as UNCTADs Catalogue of Diversification Opp

138、ortunities 2022.They also need to consider how they can fit into global value chains.And as the windows of opportunity open,policymakers should be prepared to adjust their institutional frameworks.1 More complex products are considered to require higher levels of technology to be produced.y=0.1254x+

139、0.0003R=0.0157Index of carbon emissions per GDPy=0.7796x 0.0006R=0.6075Index of carbon emissions per capita-4-2024681012-3-2-112345Product complexity-3-2-101234567-3-2-112345Product complexityOPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023

140、xxiFigure 6 Selecting realistic opportunities for diversificationSource:UNCTAD.Note:Product space is a network representation of the similarity between products traded in the global market in terms of the technology required for their production.Twin transitions for global value chains green and dig

141、italFor most countries their capacity for moving to complex and greener products will depend on trade on how they can fit into global value chains(GVCs).By participating in GVCs,countries can diversify by producing and exporting parts and components of final products or by upgrading existing output

142、to have greater value added.The greening of GVCs in manufacturing industries is driven by 1)national environmental legislation and trade agreements including environmental provisions,2)new patterns of demand preferences and consumer behaviours,and 3)new technologies inducing efficiency gains to meet

143、 greener demand requirements.These drivers can open green windows of opportunities for firms in latecomer countries involved in GVCs,but seizing these opportunities is not automatic and the failure to do so may leave enterprises worse off than before.GVCs can become greener through two main routes.T

144、he first is by manufacturing the goods used for green production,such as solar PV panels and wind turbines.The second is by greening traditional manufacturing industries,such as food,garments and textiles,leather and shoes,and furniture.Greening of traditional GVCs can be achieved by switching to di

145、gital frontier technologies associated with smart manufacturing often referred to as Industry 4.0.For example,data collected from online-connected sensors,and from GPS tracking systems,can optimize logistics and significantly reduce carbon emissions.So far,digital technologies have only diffused slo

146、wly in most of developing economies.Manufacturing companies more likely to use Industry 4.0 technologies are found in the more advanced economies.Countries with largely lower-skilled labour are less likely to benefit.There are also differences between companies in many developing countries,only a mi

147、nority of larger companies tend to adopt digital technologies;while the majority are still confined to analogue production.To promote the twin transition of green and digital,latecomer countries will need to build digital competency along with the necessary infrastructure and institutions,while buil

148、ding innovation capacity and overcoming financial barriers.Trade dataIndustrydataThe product spaceInitial list of potential products with above-average complexity and lower carbon footprintNational priorities:social,economic and environmental considerations(e.g.,job creation,gender perspective,water

149、 use,balance of payments impact,infrastructure)Short list of potential new productsDiversification policiesInform policiesOPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023xxiiWithin value chains,governments can consider targeted policies,suc

150、h as support for small and medium-size enterprises with finance for new machinery and other requirements for upgrading.They can also create training or technology demonstration centres as well as industrial institutes.As they upgrade,companies and countries should embed strong social and environment

151、al values.Social upgrading refers to improving the rights and entitlements of workers and their employment.Environmental upgrading refers to a firms ecological footprint,including its use of natural resources,its emission of greenhouse gases and its impact on biodiversity.These ideals are increasing

152、ly being demanded by consumers who are seeking more ethical products,as well as by governments and others who now have more exacting social and environmental standards.Upgrading value chains can be based on voluntary sustainability standards(VSS)which have emerged mainly through collaboration among

153、NGOs,industry groups or multi-stakeholder groups.By 2020 there were 150 VSS in agriculture,and around 30 for mining and industrial products.4.PRIORITIES FOR OPENING GREEN WINDOWSFor opening green windows,governments need to assess the current conditions and then strengthen sectoral innovation system

154、s.Much of this happens within green industrial policy,which mainly involves mobilizing the necessary actors and resources and directing how knowledge capacities are upgraded often amid considerable technological,economic,and political uncertainties.The report identifies a set of priorities for latec

155、omer countries.They can build digital competency along with the necessary infrastructure and institutions,while strengthening innovation capacity and overcoming financial barriers.This requires collaboration between the private sector and other stakeholders.A lead agency within government should mob

156、ilize resources and convene stakeholders to assess overall state capacity in the areas related to the new technology,as well as the strengths of relevant public agencies,particularly for regulation,extension support systems,and for providing required public services.Overall policy should be mission-

157、oriented going beyond levelling the playing field to fixing market failures and involving broader programmes of market co-creation and shaping.In industries where the technology is more mature,as with wind and solar,it may be difficult for latecomers to produce core components.But there can be oppor

158、tunities further down the value chain related to deployment,such as project development,engineering,procurement and construction.Governments need to assess at various stages where and how production and innovation should be strengthened and changed.To do so,they can take advantage of UNCTADs Science

159、,Technology and Innovation Policy reviews which cover the activities of national and local governments,private companies,universities,research institutes,financial institutions,and civil society organizations.While the options differ from one country and company to another,there are some common prio

160、rity areas.Set the directionAlign environmental and industrial policiesGovernments need transformational agendas to mitigate climate change,commit to renewable energy production and consumption,electrify rural communities,and increase energy security.Policies that might previously have been develope

161、d in separate domains need to be co-created across the energy-environmental and industrial spheres.This requires a whole-of-government approach involving ministries of education,industry,trade,to cultivate design and engineering capabilities and prepare the economy and businesses for responding.OPEN

162、ING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023xxiiiInvest in more complex and greener sectorsThe government,the private sector and other stakeholders should develop the capacities and build the institutions to continuously and strategically i

163、dentify new technologies and sectors for diversification that are more complex and greener.The priority sectors should be supported through vertical policy instruments such as clusters,smart specialization initiatives,pilot and demonstration projects and areas,and the associated finance.The governme

164、nt and the private sector should also expand financing opportunities for developing and commercializing green technologies.These can include Investment funds for green technology,technical assistance in innovation and technology,and advisory services.To encourage the private sector,both government a

165、nd donor agencies should come forward as early investors.These activities can be complemented by foreign direct investment.Build consumer demandGovernments can offer the incentives and infrastructure that help shift consumer demand to encourage recycling and the circular economy.This can be supporte

166、d by green procurement to create a ripple effect across the rest of the economy.Build green productive and innovative capacitiesInvest in R&DNascent green technologies usually require significant investments in R&D.Governments can offer subsidies to build up research,with the collaboration of univer

167、sities and industry,both domestic and foreign.Public R&D investments are also needed in process improvements and complementary technologies.And when technologies are rapidly evolving,as in the wind industry,this investment will need to be continuous.In the early stages,when the domestic market canno

168、t support a competitive industry,governments can set up technology demonstration projects.Raise awareness of green technologiesThe government,private sector and other stakeholders should create greater awareness of the potential of green technologies.This should start within basic education,along wi

169、th campaigns to inform the private sector and consumers of the benefits of these technologies and their capacity to reduce carbon footprints.Within firms,technical education and skills development upskill and prepare the manufacturing sector to adopt green technology.Organized civil society is also

170、important for sensitizing the public about the significance of green technology.Civil society organization can support transfer of knowledge and capacity development activities for farmers and other small businesses.They can also start pilot projects that can be scaled-up by governments.Civil societ

171、y organizations and the academia can serve as incubators or accelerators for young entrepreneurs interested in starting businesses in green agricultural technologies.Develop digital infrastructure and skillsAs these technologies progress,all countries will need stronger digital infrastructure,in par

172、ticular high-speed and high-quality Internet connections.This will mean public and private investments in ICT infrastructure along with regulations to foster competition in the telecommunications sector.Governments should also address the connectivity gaps between small and large firms and between u

173、rban and rural regions.Some technologies,such as drones,may also need specific regulations.Skills are needed for adopting existing technologies,for basic use,for adapting these technologies,and finally for creating new ones.For developing countries,it is particularly important to have the capacity t

174、o adapt and modify technologies since these are likely to be used in circumstances different from those in which they were originally developed.OPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023xxivGovernments should support businesses,includ

175、ing SMEs,to help them build digital skills in areas such as market research,product development,sourcing,production,sales,and after-sales services.Special consideration should be given to women in informal and artisanal small and microenterprises,particularly for entrepreneurs.Countries also need to

176、 reduce brain drain,retain skilled professionals,and attract skilled expatriates.5.INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION FOR MORE SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTIONIn developing countries,opening green windows is unlikely to happen naturally as a result of businesses seeking greater efficiency and profits;it has to be th

177、e consequence of deliberate government action.The least technologically able countries cannot seize green opportunities without the support of the international community and official development assistance.This should be based on equitable partnerships to build local innovation capabilities and mar

178、shal the necessary technologies.Collaboration on innovation not only transfers capital goods and equipment,it also enables people to develop the skills needed to operate and maintain the equipment(know-how)and understand why it is running(know-why).Green technologies typically need more adaptation t

179、o local conditions.Empowering developing countries for switching green thus requires broad and comprehensive development strategies that can deal with multiple tensions and develop partnerships for common public goods.Cooperation through international tradeGiven the extent to which the production an

180、d consumption of products related to green technology are traded internationally,much will depend on the conditions on which this trade takes place.Trade rules should,for example,permit developing countries to protect infant green industries through tariffs,subsidies and public procurement so that t

181、hey not only meet local demand but reach the economies of scale that make exports more competitive.There should also be requirements for local content though these need to be carefully managed and deliberately sequenced so as to avoid the pitfalls that earlier industrial policies faced in most devel

182、oping countries.To support these efforts,the World Trade Organization can review trade rules to make them more consistent with the Paris Agreement.However,member countries can also take steps within existing WTO rules.Countries with larger domestic markets,for example,can subsidize nascent sectors f

183、or components for domestic solar and wind energy products.They can thus start producing for import replacement while strengthening capacity for exports,by improving trade facilitation,and ensuring a stable and competitive exchange rates that would have effects similar to those of export subsidies.Th

184、e international community should also be innovative and propose new and bold trade mechanisms to support the development of innovation and technological capacity in developing countries for cleaner and more productive production.Developed countries can use development assistance to help countries to

185、 emulate the production of more advanced countries.On the demand side,developed countries should open their markets to production from latecomer economies.Identifying the products and countries that should benefit from such a proposal would,however,probably need a new institutional structure.A pilot

186、 could be an international programme of guaranteed purchase of tradable green items such as products,parts and components used for renewable energy.Reform of intellectual property rightsWhen the developed economies were producing new products and catching up with Britain after the Industrial revolut

187、ion,or when a few Asian countries started upgrading their productive and innovative capacities they were often copying production processes with or without permission.Now the OPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023xxvintellectual p

188、roperty rights(IPR)regime is tighter,making it harder for new producers to break in.The international IPR system should be reformed to enable governments in developing countries to manage their systems to support climate action,based on the needs of different sectors and different stages of developm

189、ent.Manufacturers in technologically weak and less diversified countries should be allowed to imitate the production of more technologically advanced economies.The principle that sustainable development should take precedence over commercial objectives was demonstrated during the COVID-19 crisis.In

190、2022,the WTO allowed eligible Members until 2027 to produce and supply vaccines without the consent of the patent holder to the extent necessary to address the COVID-19 pandemic.Similarly,flexibilities in the TRIPS Agreement should be given for environmentally-sound technologies to make the trade re

191、gime more consistent with climate change agreements.Partners for green technologyGlobal efforts should be put in place to accelerate the development and deployment of green technologies under the philosophy of common contributions to common goods.One ground-breaking model for this approach is the In

192、tergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC).Others are the Paris Agreement of 2015 and the agreements for the Sustainable Development Goals.Even under such an approach,governance mechanisms should be put in place to avoid the North-South divide in knowledge management and ensure that developing co

193、untries views and priorities are fully considered.There are also successful examples of collective research whose results belong to all participating countries,particularly in natural sciences,including the European Organization for Nuclear Research(CERN),the International Thermonuclear Experimental

194、 Reactor(ITER)and the Square Kilometre Array(SKAO)project.Similar collaborations can also shape international cooperation for green innovations that equitably incorporate the views and priorities of developing countries.Multilateral and open innovationMost science,technology and innovation efforts a

195、re governed at the national level and generally reflect the priorities of developed countries.The international community can offset this bias by shifting research from the national to the multinational level.Such research should be based on open innovation with all the results available to internat

196、ional experts and knowledge communities.A useful model is the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research.Multilateral research can cover the whole value chain,or just a part of it.Research institutions could,for example,bring products or processes close to technology maturity and invi

197、te private companies to take care of rapid deployment.Or they might take concepts only to the laboratory stage or to early demonstration projects.Assessing technologiesMost technologies can have both positive and negative consequences depending on the local context and on how they are used.Each coun

198、try needs to be able to assess the benefits and dangers of each technology according to their own needs,priorities and concerns.To date,technologies have largely been assessed either from the perspective of the developed countries or emerging economies.UNCTAD is currently carrying out pilot projects

199、 involving three African countries to build capacity for technology assessment.What is needed however is a more general multilateral system for assessing new technologies such as AI and gene editing based on the opportunities and risks they offer to different types of country.It could also consider

200、how developing countries can be systematically supported to use such technologies.OPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 2023xxviRegional and South-South cooperation in science,technology and innovationTechnological innovations to addr

201、ess the global climate crisis should increasingly be generated at transnational or even global levels.However,cooperation has been limited,even in issues in which countries in the same region often face similar problems.Researchers and investors in the poorer countries have little incentive to coope

202、rate with their regional peers and are more likely to enter research projects with developed countries and emerging economies which can offer access world-class research and laboratories as well as computing power.Moreover,small and vulnerable countries also have limited domestic markets to attract

203、local or international investment in the manufacture of goods related to green innovation.More technologically advanced developing countries should step up and strengthen efforts to promote regional and South-South cooperation for green innovation.Developed countries can support regional centres of

204、excellence for green technologies and innovation such as the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management(SASSCAL)and West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use(WASCAL).A multilateral challenge fund“Innovations for Our Common

205、 Future”Successful innovation systems create multiple incentives for companies and entrepreneurs to develop their own ideas and transfer them to practice.However,most developing countries lack the financial or management capacities to develop similar incentives.This Report proposes therefore a multi

206、lateral challenge fund“Innovations for our common future.”Funded by international organizations,donors and international philanthropy the fund would mobilize creative thinking and stimulate innovations that could respond to many global challenges.The next step would be to design a global green innov

207、ation competition.The criteria for assessing projects would be the extent to which they incorporate North-South and South-South STI cooperation for green innovation.CHAPTER IGREEN WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITYCHAPTER IGreen windows of opportunityTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 20233In 2023,the world faces

208、 severe social and economic challenges.While trying to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic,many countries are now coping with the repercussions of the war in Ukraine,which has not only caused immense suffering but has also heightened geopolitical tensions and created threats to global trade,and to en

209、ergy and food security.Hovering over this sombre conjuncture is the climate crisis.As indicated in Figure I1,rises in per capita incomes have historically been accompanied by higher CO2 emissions.Now,governments need to raise the incomes of the poor while also limiting carbon emissions.They must the

210、refore make complex trade-offs between competing policy priorities between promoting inclusive economic growth and protecting the planet.Figure I 1 The great divide,rise in CO2 per capita,and waves of technological changeNotes:“Core”corresponds to Western European countries and Australia,Canada,New

211、Zealand,the United States and Japan.“Periphery”corresponds to the rest of the world.Source:UNCTAD,based on data from Our World in Data and the Maddison Project Database,version 2018,Bolt et al.(2018),Perez(2002),and Schwab(2013).The most difficult choices are in developing countries where this conju

212、ncture of crises threatens hard-won development gains.They need more diverse and more productive economies to create more and better jobs,boost household incomes and reduce poverty.But faster economic growth will demand far more energy which,if sourced from fossil fuels,would sendmillions of tons of

213、 carbon billowing into the atmosphere.Moreover,repeating the historical patterns of growth would further widen inequality.Before the industrial revolution,average incomes at the national level were similar across the world.Subsequently,as highlighted in the 2021 Technology and Innovation Report,nati

214、onal incomes started to diverge,widening the gap between the developed countries at the core of the world economy and the developing countries at the periphery.1 A hotter climate will affect everyone rich and poor.And rising poverty and inequality will further heighten tensions within and between co

215、untries.0123456010 00020 00030 00040 00050 00060 0001700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000CO2 per capita(tonnes)Real GDP per capita in 2011US$GDP per capita CoreGDP per capita PeripheryGlobal average CO2 per capitaIndustrial RevolutionAge of steam and Age of

216、steel,electricity and heavy engineering Age of oil,the automobile and mass Age of ICTIndustry 4.0OPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 20234Developing countries need not,however,follow the historical pathways of carbon-fuelled growth

217、if the global community is committed to equitable social,economic and technological transformations guided by the Sustainable Development Goals.This report focuses specifically on technological innovation.It does not suggest that these problems will be solved by technology alone,nor that new technol

218、ogy is necessarily beneficial since the gains for one group can be detrimental for others.New technologies can destroy habitats,for example,or polarize societies,leaving many people further behind.But it does argue that innovation and advances in science and technology,if guided by the Sustainable D

219、evelopment Goals,can be used to drive the world along more sustainable and equitable pathways,particularly in the generation and use of energy.Developing countries need to open green windows now,at the beginning of the technological transformation,so that they can benefit from technological innovati

220、on and have a voice on the direction and pace of change,otherwise they will be once again left behind.The report is built around the concept of green innovation creating or introducing new or improved goods and services that leave lighter carbon footprints and open up green windows of opportunity th

221、at can help developing countries to catch up,achieve the SDGs,reduce poverty,tackle climate change and set the world on a more sustainable course.In terms of technology,developing countries typically lag behind richer countries.But as latecomers they can profit from earlier experiences,skipping some

222、 intermediate stages,and following their own trajectories and paths.2For these transformations,developing countries should also rely on support from the more technologically advanced countries.In the past such assistance has been considered“technology transfer.”In practice however,often firms have t

223、ransferred manufacturing equipment with just enough training to operate it.Technology now needs to be transferred more through innovation cooperation through equitable partnerships that evolve with changing technological needs and capabilities and with shifts in international political and economic

224、landscapes.This will require new policies for innovation,along with new business models and approaches to financing.3A report on these issues could be very wide in scope.It could,for example,consider how frontier technologies can affect climate change mitigation and adaptation,and how to balance the

225、 positive and negative sides of this transformation.Or it could address the impacts of greener products on inequality and elaborate on the important principals of the circular economy.In the interests of brevity,however,the report focusses primarily on three topics,building on the recommendation of

226、the Technology and Innovation Report 2021 for developing countries to“adopt frontier technologies while continuing to diversify their production bases by mastering many existing technologies.”First,developing renewable energy technologies.Second,applying frontier technologies to greener global value

227、 chains.Third,diversifying towards sectors that have lower carbon footprints.These topics are addressed across six chapters:Chapter I Green windows of opportunity Describes the process of catch-up using green windows.Chapter II Moving fast with frontier technologies With a special focus on green tec

228、hnologies and the preparations needed.Chapter III Growth powered by renewable energy-Examines the production of renewable energy in developing countries and provides insights on the opportunities for these countries to forge ahead in green sectors and related value chains.Chapter IV Twin transitions

229、 for global value chains green and digital How developing countries can use frontier technologies to go digital and go green.Chapter V Pathways to more complex and sustainable production How developing countries can diversify their economies towards sectors with lower carbon emissions.CHAPTER IGreen

230、 windows of opportunityTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 20235Chapter VI International collaboration for more sustainable production How international cooperation can transfer technology to and foster innovation in developing countries.A.GREEN INNOVATIONGreen innovation has its roots in the idea of a

231、 green techno-economic paradigm first presented 25years ago by economist Christopher Freeman.A techno-economic paradigm can be defined as a set of“common-sense guidelines for technological and investment decisions as pervasive new technologies mature.”4 A sustainable new techno-economic paradigm inv

232、olves switching to greener technologies and modes of production.Typically,each new techno-economic paradigm arises within the existing paradigm and may take 30 to 60 years to fully diffuse.5 The current information and communications technologies(ICT)paradigm was born the early 1970s.The embryonic g

233、reen paradigm is also benefitting from advances in ICT but more fully embraces digital technologies.6Once a technological revolution matures,financial capital will explore the opportunities for higher profits,either by extending the paradigm to other countries or by investing in the development of f

234、urther technologies,creating fresh technological waves.Typically,these waves reach developing countries after a delay arriving initially in the form of consumer goods as,for example,with the introduction of smartphones and e-commerce.Only later have developing countries applied new technologies to t

235、heir own production,through investment by multinational companies and later by domestic firms.The outcome is a patchwork of elements of different paradigms at different stages of diffusion in various sectors of the economy.7Developing countries need not,however,wait for new technologies to arrive.Th

236、ey can start to ride the waves of technology in their earlier stages,using these advances to restructure their economies and to grow more rapidly(Box I-1).If they miss the earlier stages of a technological wave there is always the risk of falling irretrievably behind.8Catching up requires more than

237、simple imitation;it demands creative adaptation and innovation.As a result,current catch-up pathways differ substantially from those taken by technologically advanced economies.Figure I2 illustrates four main components of catch-up based on green innovation.The starting point is experimenting with n

238、ew ideas and technologies and adapting these to local circumstances,values and priorities(Figure I2).To take advantage of these ideas,they will need the appropriate infrastructure in the form of public goods which often require direct government intervention,supporting the establishment of new green

239、 sectors,for example,or introducing regulations such as on air or water pollution.9 These public goods are freely available to all they are non-excludable.Green innovation is also influenced by global agendas,rules,and mechanisms,especially,those related to climate change such as the Paris Agreement

240、.Figure I 2 Catching up with green innovationSource:UNCTAD.ExperimentationHigher degree of experimentation and novelty:Limited opportunities for a path-following catch-upPublic goodsDriven by social value and the provision of climate-related public goodsDirected developmentSocial drive implies direc

241、ted development:High levels of policy Global agendasInfuenced by global agendasOPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 20236Box I 1 Overlapping technological wavesSource:UNCTAD.B.CREATING GREEN WINDOWSGreen windows are time-bounded oppo

242、rtunities that arise from changes in public institutions and policy interventions,markets,and technologies.10 Previous opportunities have depended largely on external technology11 or market changes,12 but green windows of opportunity arise mainly within countries.Created by public institutions Green

243、 windows of opportunities are often institutional promoted by public actions and related adjustments to the institutional framework conditions(rules,regulations,policies,etc).In Brazil,for example,the 1973 oil crisis triggered industrial policies to promote the use of biofuels.Similarly,in China in

244、2006 a renewable energy law stimulated the initial development of the Technological changes can be very uneven and often arrive in overlapping waves.In the chart below,technological paradigm A reaches peripherical countries only when it has already matured in core countries.It first affects infrastr

245、ucture and consumption patterns and only later is deployed in the production sectors.The pattern is similar for technological revolution B,which has yet to reach the production sectors of peripherical countries.This pattern can be broken if developing countries take advantage of the emergence of a n

246、ew technological revolution at its beginning.In technological revolution C,they actively take part in the installation phase strategically and actively promoting:a)Changes in domestic consumption pattern towards products related to the new paradigm b)Installation and diffusion of the required infras

247、tructure,and c)Diffusion of the new technologies and related innovation in their domestic productive sectors.Degree of technology developmentTimeCore countriesPeripherical countriesTech revolution ATech revolution BTech revolution CInstallation periodDeployment periodTurning pointDeployment periodTu

248、rning pointInstallation periodInstallation periodTurning pointDeployment periodDegree of development of infrastructure and consumption patternsDegree of technology development in productionTech revolution ATech revolution ATech revolution BTech revolution CTech revolution CUsual pattern of uneven an

249、d delayed deployment of technological revolutionsOpportunity for breaking the pattern by catching the technological wave at TimeTimeCHAPTER IGreen windows of opportunityTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 20237biomass industry,13 which was supported by solar energy missions such as the Rooftop Subsidy

250、and the Golden Sun Demonstration Programs.14 In Egypt,the 2014 Renewable Energy Law encouraged the private sector to produce more electricity from renewable resources.In the Philippines,the Renewable Energy Act of 2008 provided incentives for adopting new technologies.15Created by domestic markets G

251、overnments have been stimulating local demand for green products,for example,by feed-in tariffs aimed at creating competitive parity between green energies and fossil fuels.In India,the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles plan stimulates the purchase and the deployment of charging

252、 infrastructure.16 In the Philippines,the Green Public Procurement Roadmap aims to integrate the sustainability criteria in the public procurement process.17 In China in 2013,the“Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Promotion of the Application of New Energy Vehicles”provided purchase subsidies for

253、electric vehicles,supported by the 2015“Guidelines for Accelerating the Plug-in Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Deployment”.18 Local producers can also consider exports,but many green energy products are not readily tradable.Created by research and development Governments can also invest in

254、 public R&D programmes.Some examples are the wind offshore demonstration projects in China,19 the demonstration project on the deployment of solar energy systems in rural health units in the Philippines,20 and the governmental support for R&D,experimental proof and technology demonstration projects

255、on Clean Energy in India.21Throughout these processes,policymakers have to strike balances.They need to encourage local enterprises by subsidizing products,but if these capabilities are not to remain dormant,they must also stimulate market demand.At the same they must avoid the trap of stimulating g

256、reen domestic sectors without corresponding investment in technical change,such that firms in developing countries may become market leaders but remain as technology followers.22 Such institutional-cum-demand windows have been most effective for energy generation as with the use of solar PV in Brazi

257、l,China,and India which have large internal markets.C.ALERT AND READY FOR CHANGEIf developing countries are to catch up,they should be alert to opportunities.This applies both to the policymakers and to firms and supporting institutions,such as universities,research centres,and standards organizatio

258、ns.23 The firms most likely to be ready and alert are those operating in the same or closely related sectors.24Readiness to seize opportunities has enabled some companies to become national champions.In China for example,this includes Dragon Power in the production of biomass,Suntec for solar PV,and

259、 Goldwind for wind technologies.Such firms can then expand to international markets whether through licensing production overseas or establishing overseas subsidiaries.Goldwins and Envisions R&D subsidiaries in Europe,for example,established links with foreign universities and benefited from the rec

260、ruitment of very experienced engineers.25 These enterprises also expanded by buying companies in developed countries.For example,Dragon Powers acquisition of a Danish company was crucial for its leadership in the international biomass sector.26In mature sectors,it is relatively easy for firms to acq

261、uire world-class technologies,and market success depends more on capital investment in organizational capabilities.In China,for example,following the 2006 renewable energy law,companies licensed core technologies and production plant designs for biomass and wind,mainly from European firms.27 Similar

262、ly,for solar PV production capability they used foreign technologies to manufacture solar panels using globally dominant designs.28In the domestic industry,innovation diffuses from first-movers to followers.In China,a relatively weak intellectual property regime has allowed knowledge to spill over f

263、rom the leading companies to other domestic firms in related industries.29OPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 20238Within specific sectors there can be intense interactions among lead firms,suppliers,technology providers,and financi

264、al institutions.30 During the more demanding stages of technological upgrading,these contribute to technological deepening,as happened in the Chinese solar PV industry.31Firm-level initiatives need to be supported by national institutions,particular in government and in universities for example,thro

265、ugh public R&D investments in process improvements and the application of complementary technologies.32 In China,for wind power,university-industry collaboration facilitated the shift from onshore to offshore turbine technologies.33For each of these sectors,the innovation system must continuously ad

266、apt to changing market and technological opportunities and take into account the different impacts and influences on men and women.A key to all of this is smart sequencing.Typically,environmental and energy policies create demand which is then filled through industrial and innovation policies.For in

267、stance,the strategy may aim to create a demand through subsidies and price incentives for renewable energy,followed by a subsequent law allocating a share of domestic content for components in wind turbines.34 Or conversely,in the case of the global shift from combustion engines to electric vehicles

268、,innovation and industrial policies can support domestic design and manufacturing.Transportation policy then encourages domestic diffusion,followed by preparation for exports.35D.CATCH-UP TRAJECTORIES Catch-up refers to shifts in the balance of economic power between incumbents and latecomers,and ca

269、n be driven by markets or technologies.Market catch-up This can start with government policies that stimulate a domestic market that can be satisfied by local products.36 In renewable energy this may be quantified and measured as the share of energy generation capacity(in megawatts)sold and installe

270、d by domestic producers in the domestic and global markets.In other sectors,such as EV,it can be measured by domestic producers number of units sold in domestic and global markets.Global market catch-up means achieving internationally competitive quality and prices for green products,such as wind tu

271、rbines and solar PV panels,and related services.Marketplaces are small for certain pre-competitive,still immature technologies,such as concentrated solar power and green hydrogen.Technological catch-up To a significant degree,this relies on capabilities based on pre-existing knowledge and routines a

272、nd strengthened by user-producer interactions.37 There is however a distinction between technology that is new-to-the-country and world-class technology at the global knowledge frontier.38 Both types interact during the latecomer development process since a closer connection to larger and more sophi

273、sticated markets may provide critical knowledge for technology improvements.39 In addition,more robust technological capabilities may increase the competitiveness of national firms in the home and export markets.40 However,this outcome is not automatic.A certain degree of technological capability at

274、tainment may enable domestic market development but may be insufficient for export competitiveness.Conversely,demand-led domestic development may help catch up in production capability,but not technological catch-up,which depends on firm-level advantages provided by access to lead markets.41The next

275、 chapter assesses the current state of countries technological capabilities in Industry 4.0 and green technologies.CHAPTER IGreen windows of opportunityTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 202391 UNCTAD,2021a2 Perez and Soete,1988;Altenburg et al.,2008;Guennif and Ramani,2012;Lee,20193 Pandey et al.,202

276、2;Hultman et al.,2012;WEF,2022;IMF,20224 Freeman,1992,1996;see also Kemp and Soete,19925 Perez,19836 Lema et al.,20207 Perez and Soete,19888 Perez,20029 Although the current ICT paradigm and the digital economy was very much spurred by public sector programmes and benefited from large investments in

277、 the military sector,much less deliberate direction was given by public policies.In fact,the digital economy is to a large extent an unintentional by-product,or positive externality,of investments in the military-industrial complex in the US,even if the state also sought to commercialise the outcome

278、s of these investments.See also Deleidi et al.,2020.10 Lee and Malerba,201711 Wu and Zhang,201012 Morrison and Rabellotti,201713 Hansen and Hansen,202014 Iizuka,201515 UNCTAD,2022a,2022b16 Press Information Bureau of India,202217 GPPB-TSO,201718 Kalthaus and Sun,202119 Dai et al.,202020 UNCTAD,2022b

279、21 UNCTAD,2022c22 Hain et al.,202023 Vrtesy,201724 Lee and Malerba,201725 Haakonsson et al.,2020;Lema and Lema,2012;Fu and Zhang,201126 Hansen and Hansen,202027 Dai et al.,2020;Hansen and Hansen,202028 Binz et al.,202029 Hansen and Hansen,202030 Fu,201531 Binz et al.,202032 Shubbak,201933 Dai et al.

280、,202034 Lema et al.,201335 Lema et al(2020)discuss the sequencing of the various elements of GWOs.See also Konda,2022.36 Hain et al.,202037 This can be measured based on quantitative information(e.g.,patent numbers and quality)or qualitative assessments of the distance from the global knowledge fron

281、tier in each sector.38 Altenburg et al.,200839 Schmitz,200740 Lee and Malerba,201741 Beise and Rennings,2005 MOVING FAST WITH FRONTIER TECHNOLOGIES CHAPTER IICHAPTER IIMoving fast with frontier technologiesTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 202313This chapter examines frontier technologies new and rap

282、idly developing technologies that take advantage of digitalization and connectivity highlighting their potential economic benefits.It also assesses country capabilities to use,adopt,and adapt these innovations.As indicated in Figure II-1,the chapter focuses on 17 technologies divided into three broa

283、d categories:Industry 4.0,green and renewable energy technologies,and other frontier technologies.Nevertheless,these categories also intersect and overlap.For instance,drones are not classified here as a green frontier technology,though delivery by drone can cut GHG emissions due to their lower ener

284、gy consumption per package when compared to vehicles.1 Similarly,nanotechnology can improve the use of renewable sources,for example,by enabling lighter rotor blades for wind turbines.2 Figure II 1 Frontier technologies covered in this reportSource:UNCTAD.These technologies have experienced tremendo

285、us growth in the last two decades and will continue to affect economic and social structures,offering possibilities for market growth and a chance for economies to develop their labour markets.In addition,countries that have the required capabilities can enter and develop new sectors like renewable

286、energy sources or EVs,opening green windows to drive their economic growth.Nonetheless,developing economies have to optimize their preparedness and close the gaps for the use,adoption,and adaptation of frontier technologies.The readiness index included in this chapter can help countries do so using

287、an evidence-based approach.A.TECHNOLOGIES IN THE FAST LANEFrontier technologies have experienced tremendous growth in the last two decades.3 In 2020 their market value was$1.5trillion and by 2030 could reach$9.5trillion(Figure II-2).For comparison,over this period the global market for smartphones i

288、s expected only to double,from$508billion to$983billion.4 But it is important to note that these estimates may be inflated by double counting for instance,many IoT technologies also involve the deployment of AI and big data.Other frontier technologiesNanotechnologyGene editingIndustry 4.0 frontier t

289、echnologiesArtificial intelligenceInternet of thingsBig dataBlockchain5G3D printingRoboticsDrone technologyGreen frontier technologiesSolar PVConcentrated solar powerBiofuelsBiogas and biomassWind energyGreen hydrogenElectric vehiclesOPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon

290、worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 202314Figure II 2 Market size estimates of frontier technologies,$billionSource:UNCTAD based on various estimates.5 Around half the market value of these technologies is for the Intern of things(IoT)which embraces a vast range of devices that are ubiquitous acro

291、ss multiple sectors.Industry 4.0 has accelerated the use of these multiple interconnected devices from Teslas automotive factories to Amazons warehouses to IoT devices in sustainable aquaculture.6 By 2030,IoT revenues could reach$4.4trillion.7There is also a rapidly expanding market for AI,which by

292、2030 might be contributing between$13trillion and$16trillion to the global economy.8 Growth is driven by continued technical improvements in multiple sectors,such as AI-enabled self-programming robots for manufacturing,and AI-based software in financial investment,trading,and loan screening.AI is al

293、so improving urban service delivery in smart cities and drone delivery by directing semi-autonomous vehicles,cars,trucks,and buses,in which drivers are assisted by cameras,radar,and navigation systems.9 Between 2020 and 2030,the market revenues for electric vehicles(EVs)could increase from$163billio

294、n to$824billion.This growth is being driven primarily by demands from consumers who wish to reduce their carbon footprints but are also responding to rising prices for gasoline and diesel that have arisen from geopolitical instability.This demand is now being met by many more suppliers,including com

295、panies who previously only produced vehicles with internal combustion engines.Greater competition has reduced prices,encouraging better charging infrastructure,and supportive government regulations and incentives.The numbers in Figure II-2 are significantly higher than those given in the previous Te

296、chnology and Innovation Report.This is partly because this report adds six more green technologies but also because the use of several technologies accelerated after the COVID-19 pandemic and triggered more rapid digitalization.10 For the global investment promotion agencies,ICT is now reported as t

297、he second most important industry,with technologies like blockchain,big data,5G,and IoT as the main choices for online activities.11 Frontier technologies are supplied primarily from a few countries,notably the United States,China,and countries in Western Europe(Table II-1).The biggest providers of

298、Industry 4.0 technologies are from the United States which is home to major computing platforms that offer a wide range of one-stop,pay-as-you-go services.12 Companies from China are particularly active in 5G,drone technology,and solar PV.Robotics and green frontier technologies suppliers,on the oth

299、er hand are more evenly spread among developed economies in Western Europe and East Asia,where companies have benefitted from favourable regulation and rising demand for renewable energy.Only two of the top frontier technology providers are from developing economies,and both are in the renewables se

300、ctor.Firms in these countries urgently need more government support if they are to operate more effectively close to technological frontiers.20202030Electric vehicles 163Biogas and biomass 127$9.5 trillionBiogas and biomass 210Electric vehicles 824IoT4 422AI1 582Drones 102Big data 252Robotics 1503D

301、printing 51Blockchain 885G 621Gene editing 36Nanotechnology 34Concentratedsolar power 133Solar PV641Biofuels 59Green hydrogen 89Wind energy 175$1.5 trillionSolar PV180IoT740AI65 Big data73Green hydrogen 1Drones 19Robotics 123D printing 12Blockchain 15G 6Gene editing 5Nanotechnology 2Concentrated sol

302、ar power 42 Biofuels 6Wind energy 71CHAPTER IIMoving fast with frontier technologiesTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 202315Table II 1 Top frontier technology providers3D printingRoboticsDrone technologyGene editingNanotechnologySolar PV3D SystemsABB3D RoboticsCRISPR TherapeuticsBASFJinko SolarExOne

303、CompanyFANUCDJI InnovationsEditas MedicineApeel SciencesJA SolarHPKUKAParrotHorizon Discovery GroupAgilentTrina SolarStratasysMitsubishi ElectricYuneecIntellia TherapeuticsSamsung ElectronicsCanadian SolarYaskawaNorthrop Grumman Precision BioSciencesIntelHanwa Q cellsHanson RoboticsLockheed MartinSa

304、ngamo TherapeuticsPal RoboticsBoeing RobotisSoftbank Alphabet/WaymoAptivGMTesla.BiofuelsWind energyGreen hydrogenElectric vehiclesConcentrated solar powerBiogas and biomassArcher Daniels MidlandGE PowerSiemens EnergyTeslaAbengoa SolarFuture BiogasALTEN GroupMitsubishi Heavy IndustriesLindeFordIberol

305、ica GroupAir LiquideLouis DreyfusABBToshiba Energy HyundaiENGIEPlanET Biogas GlobalBrasil Bio FuelsSiemens Gamesa Renewable EnergyAir LiquideChevroletNextEra Energy ResourcesAmerescoBIOX CorpGoldwindNel ASABYDBrightSource EnergyQuantum GreenRenewable Energy GroupEnerconAir Products and Chemi-calsVol

306、kswagenEnvitech BiogasWilmar internationalGuangdong Nation-Synergy Hydro-gen Power TechnologiesRenault-Nissan-Mitsubishi AllianceWeltec BiopowerSource:UNCTAD based on various sources.Notes:American companies in dark blue,Chinese companies in orange,others from developed economies in light blue and d

307、eveloping economies in yellow.AIIoTBig dataBlockchain5GAlphabetAlphabetAlphabetAlibabaEricssonAmazonAmazonAmazon Web ServicesAmazon Web ServicesHuawei(network)AppleCiscoDell TechnologiesIBMNokiaIBMIBMHP EnterpriseMicrosoftZTEMicrosoftMicrosoftIBMOracleHuawei(chip)OracleMicrosoftSAPIntelPTCOracleMedi

308、aTekSalesforceSAPQualcommSAPSplunkSamsung ElectronicsTeradataOPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 202316Given the multiple overlaps between various technologies,it is difficult to arrive at market sizes.A more accurate way of evaluat

309、ing each is to project the value they add to the global economy.Some estimates for 5G,for example,suggest that between 2022 and 2030 its economic contribution will increase from$150billion to$1.3trillion.13 Similarly,by 2030 AI could be adding$13trillion to global economic output 1.2per cent of glob

310、al GDP,while IoT could be adding between$5.5trillion and$12.6trillion.14 Finally,blockchain is estimated to generate$176billion of value by 2025 and$3.1trillion by 2030.15 1.CREATION AND EXTINCTION OF JOBSAs with previous waves of automation,frontier technologies have both destroyed old jobs and cre

311、ated new ones.16 Current job expectations may be more pessimistic because of the increasing capacity of AI to mimic human intelligence and recent job cuts by some big technology companies,nevertheless the alarmist scenarios often fail to take fully into account that not all tasks in a job are automa

312、ted,and,most importantly,that technology also creates new products,tasks,professions,and economic activities throughout the economy.17 The net impact on jobs will depend on the final balance between creation and extinction.18Industry 4.0 frontier technologiesAI A study in the United States using dat

313、a on online job vacancies found that between 2010 and 2019 demand for AI skills rose sharply across most industries and occupations.The highest demand was in IT occupations,followed by architecture,engineering,scientific and management occupations.19 Big data There is a booming demand for data scien

314、tists in the United States.Between 2020 and 2030 there are expected to be 7,100 job openings,with annual job growth projected at 15per cent or higher.20Blockchain Between 2020 and 2021,on I the number of postings for blockchain jobs doubled.21 Blockchain developers continue to be remunerated well,wi

315、th an estimated annual income in the United States of$136,000,in Asia of$87,500 and in Europe of$73,300.The five biggest blockchain employers are Deloitte,IBM,Accenture,Cisco,and Collins Aerospace.22 Drones Between 2020 and 2040,in Australia,on average drones are expected to support 5,500 full-time

316、job equivalents per annum.23 Meanwhile between 2013 and 2025 the United States should add more than 100,000 drone-related jobs.The top three drone job locations are the United States,China,and France.24 5G Between 2022 and 2034,around 4.6million 5G-related jobs will be created in the United States,d

317、riven largely by employment in agriculture,construction,utilities,manufacturing,transportation and warehousing,education,healthcare,and government.25 By 2035,the global 5G value chain is expected to support 22million jobs.263D printing Additive manufacturing is demanding more skilled professionals,s

318、uch as engineers,software developers,material scientists and a wide range of business support functions including sales,marketing,and other specialists.In the United States,it is estimated that 3D printing will add between three and fivemillion new skilled jobs in the next decade.27IoT The growth of

319、 IoT has led to skills shortages.According to one study,between July 2021 and April 2022 the number of online job ads that included IoT increased by one-third.28 LinkedIn data suggest more than 13,000 IoT-related job openings in the United States.29Robotics Job growth in robotics is more modest.In t

320、he United States,in 2016 there were 132,500robotics engineers and the job market for this professional type is expected to grow by 6.4per cent between 2016 and 2026.30 Robotics careers include robotics engineers,software developers,technicians,sales engineers,and operators.31CHAPTER IIMoving fast wi

321、th frontier technologiesTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 202317Green frontier technologiesBiofuels Worldwide,the liquid biofuel market employs an estimated 2,411,000 people.32 Although biofuel jobs declined between 4 and 5per cent in the United States in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic,the dem

322、and for workers is projected to rebound.33Biogas and biomass Job markets will keep growing.Biomass is estimated to create 73permanent full-time direct jobs per 100MW of installation capacity.Solid biomass employs around 765,000individuals worldwide,while biogas employs approximately 339,000 people.3

323、4Solar PV Solar PV is the largest contributor to employment among the renewable energy industries,accounting for almost fourmillion jobs worldwide.35 Solar energy jobs are set to grow rapidly but there is little evidence of solar hiring boom.Growth in the solar energy sector has been slowed by polit

324、ical and industry turbulence due to regulatory uncertainty and the bankruptcy and layoffs of big companies due to lower prices and shifts in the technology,making old ones obsolete.36Concentrated solar power Worldwide,the concentrated solar power industry has created an estimated 32,000 jobs.37 In t

325、he best-case scenario,concentrated solar projects could create 100,000 to 130,000 new jobs by 2025.Of these,45,000 would be permanent roles in operations and maintenance.38Wind energy The job market is expected to experience rapid growth.Wind energy currently employs an estimated 1,254,000 people wo

326、rldwide,39 and another 3.3million direct jobs are expected to be created by 2025 as a result of additional 470GW of wind capacity.40 Green hydrogen Between 2030 and 2050,green hydrogen is expected to create as many as twomillion jobs,through investments in electrolysers and other green hydrogen infr

327、astructure.41 Electric vehicles Electrifying the transportation industry is expected to result in net job growth.In Europe by 2030 around 200,000 permanent jobs could be created to provide EV infrastructure for battery manufacturing,charger manufacturing,installation of the chargers,grid connections

328、,and charge point operations.42 Likewise,by 2035 globally there could be more than twomillion net jobs.43 Other frontier technologiesNanotechnology The nanotechnology job market is expected to expand at a modest rate.In the United States,the nanotechnology engineer job market is set to grow by 6.4pe

329、r cent between 2016 and 2026.44 Gene editing Labour demand in gene editing is expected to soar,especially in developed countries.In the United Kingdom,an estimated 18,000 new jobs will be added between 2017 and 2035,45 while in the United States,medical scientists and biomedical engineers together a

330、re expected to add 22,500jobs between 2021 and 2031.462.KNOWLEDGE ON FRONTIER TECHNOLOGIESOver the past two decades,frontier technologies have generated increasing interest amongst academics and innovators.The number of associated publications and patents has soared(FigureII-3 and Figure II-4).Parti

331、cularly high volumes are evident in Industry 4.0 for AI,438,619publications and 214,365 patents;for robotics,276,027 publications and 122,940 patents;and for IoT,139,805publications and 147,906 patents.In green frontier technologies in 2000-2021:for electric vehicles 79,732 publications and 206,049

332、patents;and for wind energy 37,514 publications and 58,134patents.The knowledge landscape is dominated by the United States and China with a combined 30per cent share of global publications and almost 70per cent of patents(Figure II-5,Figure II-6,and BoxII-1).Other countries compete in specific cate

333、gories,notably India,the Republic of Korea,Germany,the United Kingdom,France,and Japan.OPENING GREEN WINDOWSTechnological opportunities for a low-carbon worldTECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION REPORT 202318Figure II 3 Number of publications on frontier technologies,2000 2021Source:UNCTAD calculations based on data from Scopus.Figure II 4 Number of patents for frontier technologies,2000 2021Source:UNCTAD ca