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1、Effective metro system investmentGetting on trackContactsDubaiMark HaddadPartner+971-4-436- Elias KaramPrincipal+971-4-436- Ruggero Moretto Principal+971-4-436- About the authorsMark Haddad is a partner with Strategy&Middle East,part of the PwC network.Based in Dubai,he is the leader of the urban mo

2、bility team in the Middle East within the industrial manufacturing and automotive practice.He specializes in all aspects of surface transport and the future of mobility,focusing on policy setting,strategic and financial planning,operating model design,and restructuring and turnaround.Elias Karam is

3、a principal with Strategy&Middle East.Based in Dubai,he is a member of the urban mobility team in the Middle East within the industrial manufacturing and automotive practice.He specializes in urban mobility and smart cities.He has experience in city mobility strategies,setting up transport-related c

4、ompanies,designing governance and operating models of transport entities,and running the implementation of large-scale transport projects.Ruggero Moretto is a principal with Strategy&Middle East.Based in Dubai,he is a member of the urban mobility team in the Middle East within the industrial manufac

5、turing and automotive practice.He specializes in urban transport,focusing on strategic and financial planning,infrastructure development,and operationalization.Strategy&|Effective metro system investment1The case for public transportation in the cities of the Middle East is intensifying in response

6、to population growth,ambitious economic growth goals,new expectations for commute times,and plans to improve quality of life.At the heart of urban public transportation is a metro system,a challenging project to undertake given the lengthy development time and cost,with lagging economic returns.Howe

7、ver,not investing is also problematic,as a lack of public transit leads to road congestion,pollution,and traffic accidents.In the Middle East,significant metro system projects are underway in the cities of the Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC).1 Cities in the GCC have around 400 km combined of metro sys

8、tem track.We estimate that they will need around 1,500 km in total to cope with projected growth.Therefore,cities,or the local authority,must make sizable investments and do so through a clearly defined implementation framework.Using this framework,cities can make considerable gains,with a large-sca

9、le metro system generating three to four times the cost of investment in direct and indirect socioeconomic benefits,according to our calculations.The implementation framework helps cities realize the anticipated returns and implement a metro system in a cost-efficient and effective manner.The framew

10、ork consists of four pillars.The pillars are:1.Clear objectives2.Integrated planning3.High-quality service and customer-centric experience4.Commercial mindset The foundation on which these pillars rest is composed of four elements:effective governance;an ecosystem of policies and incentives to suppo

11、rt transit adoption;funding throughout system development,launch,and early operations;and local capabilities that enable effective long-term management.EXECUTIVE SUMMARYStrategy&|Effective metro system investment2THE STATE OF METRO SYSTEMS IN THE MIDDLE EASTMetro systems are spreading in the Middle

12、East after over 20 years in which many cities deliberated whether to invest in them on a large scale.Many delayed taking the leap because of concerns about the long development time and the steep costs of building and operating these systems,issues that can lead to underwhelming economic returns.Ano

13、ther challenge for these cities is the car-centric nature of their societies and urban sprawl,which make it costlier and more difficult to establish urban transport connectivity.Adding to the difficulties is that each city has distinct requirements for the amount it should invest in metro systems an

14、d a different starting point in terms of available transit modes.To date,within the GCC,Dubai,Doha,and Riyadh have begun implementing large-scale metro systems.2 As of 2022,Dubai and Doha have 90 km and 76 km of operational metro system track,respectively.Riyadh is planning to launch a 176 km metro

15、system by 2024(see Exhibit 1).Meanwhile,Abu Dhabi began electric bus trials in 2019,and it has outlined plans for a 131 km metro system by 2030.3 Bahrain is in the implementation phase of its metro system project,which will connect commercial and residential areas.4 Kuwait City also has metro system

16、 plans.5EXHIBIT 1GCC cities have varied metro system needs and plans Source:Strategy&analysisKuwait CityDammamManamaMANAMA,BAHRAINDohaRiyadhMakkahJeddahMedinaDubaiMuscatAbu DhabiUnder studyUnder developmentOperationalDEPLOYMENT STATUSStatus:Implementation phaseInvestment to date:US$7 billionCurrent

17、network size:29 kmDeployment status:Under developmentwith planned expansionsRIYADH,SAUDI ARABIAStatus:Operational launchby 2024Investment to date:US$40 billionCurrent network size:176 kmDeployment status:Under developmentwith planned expansionsMAKKAH,SAUDI ARABIAStatus:Under studyInvestment to date:

18、US$1 billionCurrent network size:18 kmDeployment status:Small sectionlaunched in 2010(seasonal operation)DUBAI,UNITED ARAB EMIRATESStatus:Launched in 2009Investment to date:US$25 billionCurrent network size:90 kmDeployment status:Operational with planned expansionsDOHA,QATARStatus:Launched in 2019In

19、vestment to date:US$55 billionCurrent network size:76 kmDeployment status:Operational with planned expansionsThe investment imperativeCities in the Middle East are forging ahead with metro systems for compelling reasons.These cities cannot meet the demands of accelerated population and tourism growt

20、h without expanding and further developing metro systems.Roads will be overburdened with the anticipated surge in private transportation.For example,Riyadhs population is expected to roughly double by 2030 because of the development of several giga-projects that support the national development plan

21、,Vision 2030.6 These projects,which include hotels and residential developments,are expected to attract a substantial influx of residents and tourists.In addition,the number of pilgrims visiting Makkah is anticipated to reach 50 million by 2030,with peaks of up to 10 million during Hajj week.The loc

22、al authority in Makkah plans to expand the current 18 km metro system to 188 km by 2030,which will correspond to 84 km of track per 1 million inhabitants,which will be nine times the coverage today.7Governments also are reimagining transportation systems given the return to normal commuting habits f

23、ollowing the easing of the COVID-19 pandemic.Many riders have little patience for lengthy commute times and greater expectations about the quality of their journeys.Rising fuel prices are eroding the affordability of private car transportation.More generally,efficient mobility is important as it sup

24、ports national goals to increase the standard of living.For instance,the UAEs 2071 Centennial Program seeks to make the country a world leader with a positive lifestyle and high quality of life,aims that a robust and flexible mobility ecosystem can support.Dubai,as part of its 2040 urban plan,intend

25、s to use smart and green mobility initiatives so that 55 percent of its residents reside“within 800 meters of a main public transport station.”8The scale of metro system investment and the returnsWe estimate that based on current supply and expansion plans to meet population demand,GCC cities togeth

26、er require an additional 1,100 km of metro system by 2030.Such an expansion would increase the total network size to around 1,500 km(compared with some 400 km at present),leading to a ratio of 34 km of metro system track per million inhabitants(compared with 13 km per million inhabitants today).We c

27、alculate that these plans would involve US$220 billion of additional investment by 2030.Riyadh,for example,would need an extra$34 billion in capital investment by 2030 in addition to the$40 billion it has already invested(see Exhibit 2,page 4).Strategy&|Effective metro system investment3Although the

28、 cost is significant,a properly implemented and funded metro system can generate three to four times in direct and indirect socioeconomic benefits.If GCC cities were to build the additional roughly 1,100 km of metro rail required by 2030,they could realize direct and indirect socioeconomic benefits

29、worth around$700 billion from 2031 to 2050.Less road traffic would mean fewer road accidents,a cut in healthcare and social costs,and less need to spend on road infrastructure(see Exhibit 3,page 5).Additional indirect,qualitative benefits would include more predictable travel times,and improved air

30、quality.EXHIBIT 2GCC cities plan to invest significantly more in metro systems(US$billions)Source:Strategy&analysis3Medina1091Makkah12Muscat17Jeddah16DammamManama30KuwaitCityAbuDhabiDubaiDohaRiyadhAdditional planned capital investment by 2030Capital investment to 20227272035255732675512407434Strateg

31、y&|Effective metro system investment4EXHIBIT 3More metro system capacity would lead to identifiable direct and indirect socioeconomic benefits(US$billions 203150)1.Fuel cost represents the fuel cost saved when people ride metro-rail rather than use private vehicles.2.Congestion represents the labor

32、productivity gain hours not wasted in peak and nonpeak traffic congestion.3.Traffic accidents represents the savings from having fewer accidents in terms of healthcare and associated costs(repairs,insurance premium increases,etc.).Calculated in terms of vehicle kilometers driven and accident cost es

33、timates from Royal HaskoningDHV.4.Road infrastructure spending is based on estimates from GCC governments.5.Private car usage cost represents the cost ownership savings in terms of a citys population resulting from increased public transportation use.6.Air pollution cost represents savings from the

34、reduction in total emissions from private vehicle use,calculated using US$amount per CO2 emissions based on long-term data.Source:Royal HaskoningDHV,“Make roads become safer and healthier for its citizens”(https:/ cost1Congestion2Trafficaccidents3Roadinfrastructurespending4Private carusage5Airpollut

35、ion6TotalStrategy&|Effective metro system investment5Strategy&|Effective metro system investment5Strategy&|Effective metro system investment6A METRO SYSTEM IMPLEMENTATION FRAMEWORKCities can use an implementation framework to build metro systems in a cost-effective manner that maximizes socioeconomi

36、c returns.The framework has four pillars,which are supported by a foundation of four elements.Each city will lean on different pillars to varying degrees based upon its metro system starting point(see Exhibit 4).Source:Strategy&EXHIBIT 4The metro system implementation framework has four pillarsPILLA

37、RSFOUNDATIONIntegrated planningHigh-quality service and customer-centric experienceCommercial mindsetClear objectives02030401Effective governancePolicies and incentives to support transit adoption Funding throughout system development,launch,and early operationsLocal capabilities that enable effecti

38、ve long-term managementThe four pillars of the metro system implementation framework are discrete yet complementary.Pillar one:Clear objectives Cities must define clear objectives at the outset to prevent conflicts among different goals during metro system implementation.Each metro system has numero

39、us goals that vary widely and that can be potentially inconsistent;for example maximizing ridership,meeting financial targets,and pursuing environmental sustainability.Pillar two:Integrated planningIntegrated planning is vital if cities are to provide riders with a convenient and smooth experience.F

40、or example,it is important to consider first-mile and last-mile challengesthat is,how riders get to the public transportation system,and how close that system puts them to their final destination.The metro system is at the heart of integrated planning,as it carries the largest number of passengers.C

41、ities can plan for their metro system to be flexible and provide maximum connectivity for riders by considering how transport modes work together,whether they are such existing modes as buses,taxis,and ride-hailing,or emerging modes such as micro-mobility,autonomous shuttles,and pods(fully autonomou

42、s,electric vehicles that seat up to four people).Integration spares cities from overinvesting in capacity that could take too long to build or that may not receive adequate long-term use,such as isolated metro stations or dedicated bus networks that run through low-density residential areas.Pillar t

43、hree:High-quality service and customer-centric experienceA metro system should provide its users with a high-quality experience that is convenient,safe,and smooth.People have high expectations for their quality of life and their transport service.If these are not met,they may avoid using the metro s

44、ystem.One way to provide a high-quality experience is to make the interaction between the digital and physical aspects of the service seamless.Mobility-as-a-service apps,for instance,can help riders plan their entire journey and offer electronic ticketing,fare payment,and service updates.Such apps c

45、an collect journey data and user feedback to inform service improvements.These apps can include loyalty programs.Some GCC metro systems are already building the high-quality experience pillar.Doha,for example,increased the number of transit cars and how often they ran for the 2022 FIFA World Cup.The

46、 city also offered a transit card that riders could use on the metro,buses,and trams.9 Similarly,Dubai allows riders to pay for tickets on their mobile phones.10Pillar four:Commercial mindsetA metro system should aim to realize its full commercial potential through arrangements that capture long-ter

47、m revenue generation opportunities beyond ticketing.Such a commercial mindset yields options in the short to medium term such as advertising,sponsorships,and retail spaces at metro stations.In the long term,there are possibilities for the metro system to work with developers to build new commercial

48、and residential areas attached to the metro system.Strategy&|Effective metro system investment7The foundationThe four pillars of the implementation framework rest on a foundation of four elements.Effective governanceCities need an overarching governance structure that clearly defines roles and respo

49、nsibilities.Such integrated control over all transport modes is vital for the success of a metro system.The governance structure allows cities to manage vital decisions across the planning,delivery,and operations of the metro,thereby avoiding the danger of having transport modes operating in silos a

50、nd investments failing to deliver the anticipated benefits.Policies and incentives to support transit adoptionCities need an ecosystem of policies and incentives that encourage people to swap private car journeys for public transportation.They can encourage more people to use metro systems by provid

51、ing attractive and sustainable first-mile and last-mile mile options such as placing bikes and e-scooters near stations.Cities can also provide fare incentives,including discounts for users such as university students and frequent commuters.Simultaneously,cities can nudge people away from private ca

52、r use.They can limit private car access in specific areas and offer last-mile taxis or ride-hailing.Cities also can use parking charges,tolls,and vehicle registration fees,and a vehicle fuel efficiency tax.Such approaches raise funds for investment in public transport.Similar initiatives in Dubai ha

53、ve encouraged residents to move away from private car use.11Funding throughout system development,launch,and early operationsIt is vital that funding for any new metro system endure through the development,launch,and early operation phases.Such a guarantee of support prevents gaps in investment,prev

54、ents significant delays,and ensures that operational funding is accessible to provide the quality and availability that attracts riders.The continuity of funding prevents cities from cutting corners and enables public transportation to reach its full potential.Cities can supplement direct funding by

55、 commercializing public transport entities.That means creating subsidiaries that focus on activities such as retail and advertising,entities that are part of the systems commercial mindset.Cities can obtain additional funding through long-term loans,bonds with assets as collateral,and the sale and l

56、ease-back of movable assets.Local capabilities that enable effective long-term managementCities need to develop local capabilities such as design,planning,and maintenance to ensure the metro system is managed well and operates effectively over the long term.That is particularly important for those c

57、ities with little experience in metro systems.In particular,cities need to expand the skill sets of their workers and deploy technology.Dubai plans to train recent graduates so they can work in operations and maintenance.The city also is using an artificial intelligence system called“City Brain”to i

58、mprove efficiency and service in the citys bus system.12Strategy&|Effective metro system investment8Leaning on the pillarsAlthough the implementation framework applies to all cities,individual cities will focus their attention and investments based on where they stand in terms of their metro system(

59、see Exhibit 5).For example,as all metro systems strive to define clear objectives,the first pillar,some cities are already advanced in their design plans for integrated metro systems.Therefore it makes sense for them to focus on integrated planning,the second pillar,while attending to the four eleme

60、nts of the foundation.Some other cities,meanwhile,aim to expand further their soon-to-be-launched metro system.Such cities could then focus on a high-quality service,the third pillar,and a commercial mindset,the fourth pillar.Source:Strategy&analysisEXHIBIT 5Metro systems will lean on different pill

61、arsKEY PILLARSMATURITY ASSESSMENT OF METRO SYSTEMIntegrated planningHigh-quality service and customer-centric experienceCommercial mindsetClear objectivesPLANNINGPHASEIMPLEMENTATIONPHASEOPERATIONAL READINESS PHASECOMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT PHASEMedina 31 kmSize of bubble is indicative of metro lengthCur

62、rent length(km)Planned length(km)Muscat 55 kmJeddah 161 kmAbu Dhabi 131 kmMakkah 188 kmKuwait City160 kmDammam 50 kmManama109 km29 kmRiyadh331 km176 kmDoha 94 km76 kmDubai 211 km90 kmStrategy&|Effective metro system investment910Strategy&|Effective metro system investment11Strategy&|Effective metro

63、system investmentStrategy&|Effective metro system investment12CONCLUSIONCities in the Middle East have the opportunity to transform their public transport systems.Irrespective of where they are on that journey now,they require an implementation framework to ensure that their large-scale investment m

64、eets future demographic and economic demands.Properly implemented and managed,metro systems can create long-term socioeconomic returns,promote sustainability,and improve the quality of life for residents.Strategy&|Effective metro system investment13ENDNOTES1.The GCC countries are Bahrain,Kuwait,Oman

65、,Qatar,Saudi Arabia,and the United Arab Emirates.2.Afrah Bari,“Everything you need to know about the Riyadh Metro,”Time Out Riyadh,June 1,2022(https:/ United Arab Emirates Government portal,“Metro”(https:/ Metro Project,Kingdom of Bahrain,”Railway Technology,November 10,2021(https:/ Burroughs,“Kuwai

66、t announces details of metro project,”International Railway Journal,January 31,2020(https:/ Vision 2030”(https:/ Shahbandari,“Makkah to have four metro lines,88 stations,”Gulf News,April 29,2014(https:/ 2040 Urban Master Plan(https:/ 2040,“Key Outcomes”(http:/dubai2040.ae/en/);Sultan Al Ghurair,“The

67、 15-minute city:Blueprint for post-Covid recovery;Dubai a prime candidate,”Arabian Business,November 8,2021(https:/ Alagos,“Minister says Doha Metro safe,ready for influx of World Cup fans,”Gulf Times,October 4,2022(https:/ World Cup,Qatar 2022,“Hayya Card Terms of Issue and Use”(https:/ public tran

68、sport payments to be made with mobile phones,”The National,October 7,2019(https:/ Forster,“More than 304 million journeys on Dubai public transport in first half of 2022,”The National,August 14,2022(https:/ Oommen,“How Dubai is using AI to get people on public buses,reduce waiting time,and speed up

69、journeys,”Arabian Business,June 13,2022(https:/ PwC.All rights reserved.PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms,each of which is a separate legal entity.Please see for further details.Mentions of Strategy&refer to the global team of practical strategists that is integrat

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