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1、Growth opportunities may be closer than they appear.By Roch Baranowski,Eric Zayer,Klaus Stricker,and Ingo SteinThe Outlook for the European Used Car MarketCopyright 2023 Bain&Company,Inc.All rights reserved.AcknowledgmentsThe authors would like to acknowledge the contributions of Pawel Szreder to th

2、is report.1The Outlook for the European Used Car MarketAt a Glance The European used car market will continue to grow,despite the coming recession.The main market driver will be low availability of young cars in the face of continuing global supply chain disruptions.The often-discussed impact of bat

3、tery-electric vehicles on the used car market will be positive rather than negative.While new online business models will disrupt the market,it will be largely at the expense of consumer-to-consumer transactions and less at the expense of traditional dealers.For many years,the European used car mark

4、et has been a large and attractive market with healthy growth.Current Bain market modeling indicates that key drivers are generally intact,and the used car market is expected to weather the coming recession well.While there may be turbulence in new car sales,the market for used cars is expected to r

5、emain more resilient and attractive for key players like car dealers,omnichannel players,automotive manufacturers,marketplaces,and investors.High overall market attractiveness,despite the looming downturnWith a total volume of 429 billion euros in 2021,the market for used cars in Europe is similar t

6、o the market for new cars.Of the 32 million used cars sold in Europe in 2021,some 44%were sold privately in consumer-to-consumer(C2C)transactions,while 56%were sold by professional retailers,which tend to focus on higher-class,younger cars.Furthermore,used car margins typically beat new car margins

7、for dealers.Overall,the used car market is growing healthily,with a CAGR of 7%between 2015 and 2021.So far,Europes car retailers are still highly fragmented,and most firms operate only in very confined local markets:Together,Europes top 20 car dealerships trade only around 6%of all used cars.The use

8、d car market is generally quite stable,even in downturns:Many people rely on their cars to reach work and see family,and they would rather sacrifice other purchases than give up their cars.In addition,new car buyers may switch to used cars when their older cars cannot be maintained economically and

9、they can no longer afford new carsso there will always be turnover in the used car market.Therefore,even though the economic environment is expected to become more difficult in the coming years,Bain expects the used car market to be more stable than other markets.2The Outlook for the European Used C

10、ar MarketSource:Bain Market ModelUsed car market(EUR B,201525)Passenger car parc(M,201525)Used car turn(Percentage of passenger car parc,201525)Used car price(EUR K,2015-25)CAGR 2015217%201514%19142013211322F1323F1324F1325F13(-0.1%)(-6)(+2)(+1)(+1)(+0.5)2015919112012211322F1423F1424F1425F15(+4%)(+12

11、)(+9)(+6)(-2)(+4)201529119358203812142922F46023F45724F47825F503(+5%)(+6)(+12)(+7)(-1)(+5)201522419241202442124722F24923F25124F25325F254(+2%)(+1)(+1)(+1)(+1)(+1)Used car turn slow down due to demand shift to new cars(stabilization of new car supply)Expected price correction after period of car shorta

12、ge=Figure 1:The EU used car market will return to 5%growth trajectoryBain&Company has comprehensively modeled the future European used car market,based on the probable influence of the most relevant market drivers,which were explored and tested through quantitative modeling and validated in structur

13、ed expert interviews.On this basis,Bain predicts a European used car market that will soon be back on its old 5%growth trajectory in the coming years(see Figure 1).Used cars are expected to enjoy stable turnovers for years to come,mainly due to almost four years of low new car production volumes fro

14、m 2020 through 2023.A structural undersupply of carsThe most significant market driver for used car sales will be the low availability of new and young used cars.Starting with disruptions caused by new Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure(WLTP)emission standards,followed by pandemic sh

15、utdowns and the semiconductor and shipping crises in their wake,European new car production and sales have taken a severe hit.The shortage in chips is expected to impact production of light vehicles at least until mid-2023,but with further shutdowns in China still possible and the war in Ukraine lea

16、ding to shortages in raw 3The Outlook for the European Used Car MarketSource:Bain analysisCar parc trends?Used car turnover?Used car prices?Moderate population growth More remote workSuburban lifestyleShared mobility?Fewer new car purchases:limited offerLonger vehicle lifetime:less demandHigh used c

17、ar pricesShift to leasing and subscription:more churnWait for EV advances:fewer purchasesCovid-19 lock downs:demand backlogShortage of new cars and resulting shortage of used carsUsed car prices follow rising new car pricesYounger cars,more extrasEV trend:lower demand for combustion engine used cars

18、?Figure 2:Different market drivers are at play in the European used car marketmaterials and parts,such as wiring harnesses for German automobiles and soot for tire production,further disruptions are foreseen.By that point,cumulative production will be at more than 10 million units behind the pre-sho

19、rtage expectations.In the longer run,electric vehicle production is also likely to face repeated battery shortages.This would limit European electric vehicle output,which,because of existing European fleet emission standards,could not be balanced by production increases for cars with internal combus

20、tion engines.Thus,further shortages are highly likely in the near future.Fewer new cars produced and sold means there is a lower supply of young used cars,as more customers who cannot get their preferred new cars are thus going for younger used cars.There is also still a pandemic backlog in the dema

21、nd for carsmany people in Europe have postponed their car purchases during the shutdowns.Taken together,these developments mean there is a structural undersupply of cars in Europe that is expected to keep up prices for new and especially used cars,even in a downturn.We already saw used car prices su

22、rge 9%to 12%between 2019 and 2021.Despite lower demand during the first half of 2022,residual values of used cars have continued to go up faster than the list prices for new cars(see Figure 2).4The Outlook for the European Used Car MarketNote:Select European countries incl.Germany,UK,France,Italy,Sp

23、ain,Netherlands,Sweden,Austria,Belgium,Poland,Hungary,Czechia,SlovakiaSources:ACEA;Edmunds;Manheim;US Department of Transportation;DAT;KBA;SMMT;Lit.search;Bain analysisNumber of vehicles,in millionsEuropean new and used car transactions 2019(select Western and Eastern European countries by total num

24、ber of cars,in millions of units)Total=52Germany3.6(33%)7.2(67%)11UK2.4(23%)7.9(77%)10France2.2(28%)5.7(72%)8Italy1.9(25%)5.6(75%)8Spain1.5(42%)2.1(58%)40.5(16%)2.6(84%)30.4(17%)2.0(83%)20.3(19%)1.4(81%)20.3(25%)0.9(75%)10.5(41%)0.7(59%)1Hungary 0.1(17%)0.7(83%)1Czechia0.2(32%)0.5(68%)1Slovakia0.1(2

25、6%)0.3(74%)0New carsUsed carsUSNew cars17(29%)Usedcars41(71%)58Europe(select countries)New cars14(27%)Usedcars38(73%)52PolandNetherlandsSwedenAustriaBelgiumFigure 3:Just four countries make up majority of European used car marketBattery electric vehicles help the used car players Pushed by the EU an

26、d a growing awareness for sustainability,there is a strong shift to battery-electric vehicles(BEVs)in Europe.In 2021,Europe became the second-largest BEV market after China,with sales of 1.2 million BEVs,a 63%rise compared with 2020(see Figure 3).Three questions are especially important when assessi

27、ng BEVs impact on the used car market:Will BEVs change the frequency of vehicle sales?How stable will the residual values be?How will used BEVs be traded in the future?So far,BEVs have meant faster turnover for the used car business.Early BEV adoption markets like Norway show a clear increase in use

28、d car sales activities:Some car owners change to a BEV before the date when they would normally have bought a new car.Also,initial BEV customers replace their cars more frequently,as new and technologically advanced BEVs come out(offering,for example,faster charging,bidirectional charging,or newer b

29、attery technologies).This outweighs the smaller opposing effect of owners of traditional cars holding on longer to their combustion engine cars,waiting for BEVs to become more mature and affordable.Early-BEV-adoption countries have thus experienced a slight overall price increase in used cars,as mor

30、e expensive BEVs and younger used cars have come on the market.5The Outlook for the European Used Car MarketThe residual value of used BEVs is generally higher than that of comparable combustion engine cars because of their higher new car price,further supporting high price levels on the used car ma

31、rket.The price for an individual BEV will largely depend on the state of the battery,which is the most valuable and degradable part of the car.Thus,most buyers prefer services like professional battery status checks and battery warranties.This favors business-to-consumer(B2C)sales over C2C sales and

32、 should thus benefit the dealerships.Additionally,the higher cost of BEVs means more need for used car financing,leasing,or more innovative arrangements like used car subscriptionsfurther opening new opportunities for dealers,especially over peer-to-peer transactions.Further,BEVs create new customer

33、 needs for accessories like charging cables and home charging stations(wallboxes),which dealers can readily supplymaybe even including installation services.In addition,BEV drivers have a higher affinity to online channels,possibly leading to a preference of dealers with professional online channels

34、.New online business models to buy and sellOver the past several decades,the commercial used car market has remained largely traditional,centered on local dealerships.The 1990s and first decade of the 2000s brought traditional offline classifieds online,in the form of websites like Germanys mobile.d

35、e and Frances Leboncoin.Only lately,such sites have started offering additional services,like direct online car buying and subscriptions.It took until the late 2010s for true digital retailers to appear:Companies like Autohero,Carvago,and Driverama offer a full digital sales experienceincluding a vi

36、rtual“seat trial,”free delivery,full vehicle checks,warranties,and a host of optional extra services and guarantees.Alongside online sales platforms,there are also online acquisition platforms that buy used cars from consumers and commercial sellers alike.They use asset-heavy business models,like Wi

37、rkaufendeinauto(Germany),or asset-light models,like Motorway(UK).After some problems in the beginning,these online purchasers now transparently and reliably offer fair market prices with considerably less hassle,according to independent market checks.Initially,investors hyped used car online retaile

38、rs.AUTO1,the publicly listed company behind Autohero and Wirkaufendeinauto,raised 1.8 billion euros when going public in February 2021 and was hailed as one of Europes unicorns.But the hype was short lived,and in light of Europes slide into stagflation as a result of the war in Ukraine,AUTO1 lost mo

39、re than 80%of its stock value by December 2022.Two other online used car retailers decided to leave the German market altogether:Cazoo and Carnext,focusing on their core markets again.6The Outlook for the European Used Car MarketSource:Bain analysisAutomotive manufacturersCar appraisal Price setting

40、 and comparison Car financingOnline communityDigital C2B used car intermediaries(asset heavy and light)Digital B2C used car intermediaries(asset light)B2B auctions(asset heavy and light)Traditional car dealershipsCar rental companiesCar leasing companiesPure-play e-commerce dealersCar subscription a

41、nd mobility providers Car dealers in the C2B and B2CClassifiedadvertisementsValue-added service providersTransactionownershipTransaction participantsPrimary focus of this reportUsed car search sitesFigure 4:European used car market continues to move onlineDespite this temporary setback,Bain&Companys

42、 scenario modeling shows that there might be substance beyond the hype.Online used car retailers are still poised for growth:In 2020,online sales of used cars were around 1%in Europe.The Bain market model predicts that the European used car market will continue to professionalize and move online(see

43、 Figure 4).Online is all about convenience and trust Online car sales clear advantage lies in its convenience to the customer:The buyers do not have to physically hunt down,examine,and test-drive their future cars or fear being cheated in the transaction.Rather,the buyer can comfortably do everythin

44、g from their living room couch.The main challenge of this sales channel lies in building trust:Are there hidden problems with the car?Will I receive the purchase in a safe way?This is where risk-mitigating services come into play:the brands strength and trust,expert opinions,extended warranties,spec

45、ial insurances,and local repair partners to fix minor issues.To succeed in this market will require building excellence into all steps of the customer journeyincluding research,finding the right offer,examining the car,test drives,old car trade-in,price 7The Outlook for the European Used Car MarketS

46、ource:Bain Market ModelPercentage of used passenger car market volume,201525FHigh case:70%CAGR Market incumbents expected to grow in linewith historical growth of leading pure-onlineplayers,e.g.,AutoHero Assumes market entry of new pure-online players and elevated online activity preserved after Cov

47、id-19 Continued growth at B2C online historic CAGR of 60%,development of major onlineplayers and some emerging players Base case:60%CAGRLow case:historic 50%CAGR2015161718192021F22F23F24F25FForecast3%4%6%Covid-19 accelerated the switch to online channel2025F onlinepenetration inused car market1%Stat

48、us quo preserved with pure-online players already present in the market developing in line with historic trends,futuregrowth eroded by customers post-Covid-19 coming back to offline shoppingFigure 5:Online offers high growth perspectives in the European used car marketnegotiation,contract closing,pa

49、yment,and final car delivery.For a car dealership to move online,some of these steps must be either digitized or executed by local partners.Successful online traders will probably establish a hybrid model,featuring online conveniences as well as physical representations on the ground to generate tru

50、st;players like Cinch and Cazoo already do this.As professional online dealers continue to remove customer pain points,there will be a significant market shift from C2C to C2B2C.The key to this development is transparent and hassle-free purchase and sales processes as well as risk-reducing services,

51、like warranties,insurance,and maintenance plans.Online will see solid growth in the future Bains driver-based market model sees three scenarios for online players in the used car market:The first is a low-case scenario in which post-pandemic customers largely return to traditional car dealerships an

52、d no new competitors appear on the scene.Still,this would mean that 3%of all used cars will get sold online in 2025,adding up to 15 billion euros that year(see Figure 5).In the base-case scenario,we are seeing major online players developing and new business models emerging.This can draw more custom

53、ers to online buying and would generate a 4%online share in 2025.The high-case 8The Outlook for the European Used Car Marketscenario even predicts a market growth of the top online car dealerships along the median of other online retailers post-Covid.In this case,the online channels could gain a 6%s

54、hare of the used car market,or a transaction value of 26 billion euros.An attractive market with significant digital disruptionFor the years to come,the used car market will remain an attractive business field for many different players.This includes traditional car dealers(franchised and independen

55、t),new omnichannel players,automotive manufacturers,online marketplaces,and investors,as well as new digital disruptors like B2B2C or B2C platforms.New emerging customer needs such as professional battery testing and an increase in existing needs for used car financing,leasing,and subscriptions furt

56、her open opportunities for new digital business models.Market participants should evaluate how the market shifts anticipated in this report will impact their businesses and how they can profit.Now is the time for all players to actively develop their business models.The aim should be to occupy a swe

57、et spot within the changing used car environment that can ensure continued success in this highly interesting market.Bold ideas.Bold teams.Extraordinary results.Bain&Company is a global consultancy that helps the worlds most ambitious change makers define the future.Across 64 cities in 39 countries,

58、we work alongside our clients as one team with a shared ambition to achieve extraordinary results,outperform the competition,and redefine industries.We complement our tailored,integrated expertise with a vibrant ecosystem of digital innovators to deliver better,faster,and more enduring outcomes.Our

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