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1、What a Difference a Year Makes:2023 Commercial Real Estate OutlookU.S.Research Report After a record-setting year in 2021 the office sector aside 2022 was a tale of two half-years featuring more twists and turns than a boardwalk roller coaster.The years first half featured strong investment activity

2、 a continuation of 2021s momentum.Robust demand for goods boosted the industrial and retail sectors but further stressed an already fragile supply chain,causing inflation to surge to 9.1%in June,a four-decade high.In response,the Fed increased interest rates by a cumulative 425 basis points in the r

3、est of 2022,bringing the once white-hot housing market to a standstill and sidelining commercial real estate investors in the last half of the year.While demand for industrial space remained strong,tenant downsizing and the shift to hybrid work began to take hold in the office sector,leaving subleas

4、e availability at a record high of 242.8 million square feet.Multifamily rents grew strongly,particularly earlier in the year,as rising home values priced many would-be buyers out of the single-family market.The retail sector gained momentum as emergency conditions of the pandemic began to subside,a

5、nd other asset classes like data centers,self-storage,and life sciences buildings continued to shine.With the economy projected to tip into a mild recession during the second quarter of this year,2023 will serve as a year of discovery.Multifamily will remain a favored asset,but the unbridled rent gr

6、owth of 2022 will moderate.In the office sector,higher vacancy and reduced space needs will cause distress.The retail sector will be impacted as consumers scale back due to higher borrowing costs,drawn-down savings accounts,and slower job growth.Meanwhile,the industrial sector,after healthy growth d

7、uring the supply-constrained environment of the last two years,will now face industrial production declining due to a strong dollar,higher interest rates,and softening demand in the U.S.and abroad.Overall,we expect the commercial real estate sector to catch its collective breath in 2023 and begin to

8、 regain its footing as the economy heats up again in 2024 and beyond.EconomyTrends to Watch in 2023 U.S.Slides into a Mild Recession:The Feds swift and aggressive monetary policy,coupled with persistent inflation and slower global demand,will push the economy into a mild recession by midyear.While t

9、he Fed is likely to stop hiking rates after its first quarter meetings,it wont begin to reverse course despite moderating inflation until later in the year or early 2024.Inflation Poised to Drop Significantly:Easing supply chain challenges and falling energy,gas,and commodity prices will relieve inf

10、lationary pressures.Inflation can then fall significantly because of lower rents and housing costs,moderating healthcare costs,and retailers unloading too much inventory.Labor Constraints Ease:Strong employment growth propelled the economy in 2022,but the labor market will begin to stall in 2023,and

11、 growth will turn negative by summer.Although relatively low by historical standards,the unemployment rate will rise above 4.5%,and wage growth will drop closer to the Feds 2%target range.U.S.Market Overview2|2023 Commercial Real Estate Outlook Consumer Spending Runs Out of Steam:As the pandemic-boo

12、sted household savings rate falls below pre-pandemic levels,households will likely curb spending,particularly on higher-priced goods,as labor market conditions deteriorate and wage growth retreats.Residential and Business Investment Weaken:Despite stabilization in the 10-year Treasury and 30-year mo

13、rtgage rates,single-family sales will remain tepid.As pent-up demand eases,higher borrowing costs and tightening lending standards will cause business investment to soften as companies reduce expenses in a contracting economy.Housing Affordability:Despite a quick and dramatic reversal in the housing

14、 market by the end of last year,affordability will remain a paramount concern.Elevated mortgage rates will discourage existing homeowners from moving and sideline many would-be buyers.Therefore,multifamily demand will persist,and,limited inventory in most markets will keep housing costs for owners a

15、nd renters elevated.CRE Trends to WatchSustainability and the Bottom LineAs climate concerns take center stage,attitudes towards sustainability will shift from wanting to do something to needing to.According to the Environmental and Energy Study Institute,buildings across the U.S.account for 40%of c

16、arbon emissions.While sustainability initiatives are expensive,theyre becoming non-negotiable for institutional investors.Distressed Assets EmergeThe pandemic wave of distressed assets failed to materialize,as owners and lenders worked in unison;however,distress will emerge in 2023 in all asset clas

17、ses.With the rapid rise in interest rates,valuations will be challenged upon debt maturity,forcing owners to put more capital into their assets.While rescue capital is gaining traction,many cash-constrained owners and developers will return their keys to the bank.Flight to QualityThe flight to quali

18、ty is happening in the office sector as employers focus on premium spaces,not only to bring their employees back but also to attract and retain top talent in an ultra-tight labor market.However,as a recession looks more likely and tightening regulations push more companies towards ESG initiatives,tr

19、ophy assets will outperform others in all property types.Colliers U.S.Research Report|3Trends to Watch in 2023 Return to the Office:Properties that combine cutting-edge amenities with optimal work experience should succeed in returning staff to the office.The desire to be more visible during a reces

20、sion could also motivate staff to return.Hybrid Working:Many firms have adopted hybrid working,and more will follow.The dominant model could be three days a week in the office and two days of remote work.Increased Flexibility:Businesses are demanding greater flexibility from owners,impacting both le

21、ase terms and the layout and use of office space.This will have knock-on effects on building valuations and tax rolls.Downsizing:Expect a significant number of firms to reduce their office footprint as leases roll.A reduction of 20%to 30%is typical for larger occupiers,but some cuts are 50%or more.G

22、reater Bifurcation:Performance and demand differentials are expected to widen between building classes plus between and within markets and different business sectors.Office4|2023 Commercial Real Estate OutlookU.S.National Office Forecast Vacancy:The U.S.vacancy rate is rising and is expected to reac

23、h,or exceed,the prior cyclical peak over the year ahead.Increased building obsolescence will result in greater structural vacancy.Demand:Net absorption turned negative in Q4 2022,erasing the gains seen earlier in the year.A significant uptick looks unlikely in the face of business and economic uncer

24、tainty.As the tech sector retrenches,leasing activity will decline unless another tenant sector takes the lead.Sublease Space:Sublease space has reached a record high and is expected to rise as more firms cut space and put the surplus on the market.Construction:Development,already down 40%from this

25、cycles peak,will continue to fall,due to a downturn in pre-leasing and fundamentals that do not support speculative projects.Rents:Asking rents are holding up,but with generous concessions.The prevalence of lower-cost,high-end sublease options will place further pressure on direct rates.Colliers U.S

26、.Research Report|5Trends to Watch in 2023 Outsourced Distribution:Growing demand for reverse logistics in the retail sector will increase the deployment of third-party logistics(3PL)services.In 2022,3PL occupiers accounted for roughly 30%of all bulk transactions,and this market share is expected to

27、increase over the next several years.Companies using a 3PL provider are better able to scale space,labor,and transportation,which can often mitigate the risk of supply chain disruptions.Manufacturing Reshoring:More manufacturing facilities are breaking ground in the U.S after global events revealed

28、more risks on the supply chain.Reshoring is generally costly;however,it may be the best cost option for some to ensure supply chain resiliency.Bloomberg reported that the construction of new U.S.manufacturing facilities in 2022 increased 116%over that in 2021.Demand For Cold Storage:Demand for groce

29、ry delivery services has increased,prompting demand for cold storage facilities,which historically have rarely been built speculatively.More speculative cold storage development is expected,especially in markets with high population growth.Greater Focus on ESG:Following record development levels ove

30、r the last two years,new industrial starts are expected to pause in 2023.However,developers that are breaking ground have been incorporating new design standards.Many occupiers are looking for 45-ft.clear facilities with heavy power,lots of parking,and more building and park amenities,with a greater

31、 focus on ESG.Industrial6|2023 Commercial Real Estate OutlookU.S.National Industrial Forecast Vacancy:The U.S.industrial vacancy rate is expected to rise in 2023.As demand wanes and new development delivers,the overall rate could increase by 120 to 150 basis points.However,core markets and those nea

32、r our vital seaports will continue to have robust demand and low vacancy.Demand:Occupancy growth is expected to decelerate in 2023 while remaining above pre-pandemic levels.While that may seem like a sharp drop in demand compared to historically high levels in 2021 and 2022,large occupiers,including

33、 major retailers,3PL companies,and food and beverage companies,will continue to expand in 2023.Construction:With record levels of product underway at the end of 2022,new delivery benchmarks are expected once again in 2023.However,as demand continues to moderate,deliveries could outstrip demand this

34、year.The oversupply of new industrial product and easing demand will cause the expected vacancy increase in 2023.Rents:Average asking lease rates grew at an unprecedented pace in 2022,often by double digits in many tight markets.Rates will continue to rise this year,but at a tempered pace,likely bet

35、ween 4%6%.Colliers U.S.Research Report|7Trends to Watch in 2023 Retailers Eye Emerging Markets:Motivated by the pandemic,people prioritized quality-of-life considerations and migrated from larger urban areas.This shift has boosted many cities in the South and West regions of the U.S.into top-ranking

36、 commercial real estate markets and has increased demand for quality retail space in tertiary submarkets.Shrinking Requirements:The average lease size will continue to decline as retailers look to shrink overall footprints and expand with smaller-format store concepts,maximizing their impact in each

37、 market while lowering costs.The average lease term is also contracting,with momentum growing for three to five years of term as retailers try to remain flexible and maintain leverage over landlords.Core Retail Remains Attractive:With persisting inflation expected to push the U.S.into recession,groc

38、ery-anchored retail assets will remain a source of stability within the sector due to their importance to consumers and relatively low competition from e-commerce.Evolving Store Formats:The importance of omnichannel services will force retailers to consider new store formats,including more space for

39、 fulfillment and a deeper merchandise assortment,and will allow consumers to shop both online and in-store.Central Social Districts:As the return to office continues to languish,look for Downtowns to embrace the idea of a central social district.Residential and other complementary uses can bring mor

40、e foot traffic and spending to retail stores during the daytime.Retail8|2023 Commercial Real Estate OutlookU.S.National Retail Forecast Vacancy:The U.S.retail vacancy rate will stabilize during the first part of the year as the rapid leasing of the past two years loses momentum.Suburban markets will

41、 continue to attract greater leasing volume,however,as many urban markets struggle with recovery.Demand:Net absorption will begin to decline in 2023 specifically in the mall segment as availabilities remain higher than before the pandemic.Overall demand will still be positive for shopping centers an

42、d freestanding single-tenant properties.And retailers will extensively research potential locations and use sales and location-tracking technology to pinpoint where new stores will succeed and what size footprint is needed.Construction:The oversupply of retail inventory is stabilizing,since more tha

43、n 80 million square feet of existing retail space has been demolished in the U.S.since 2019 as properties are repurposed.The lack of quality retail supply will compress the availability rate and slow store openings,and starts on new projects have fallen to their lowest levels in decades.Rents:Minima

44、l new retail supply plus positive demand growth in many of the major U.S.markets are expected to push rents higher this year.Although this will bring nominal rent gains to retail owners in strong locations,inflation will continue to weigh on the real rate of rent growth.Colliers U.S.Research Report|

45、9Trends to Watch in 2023 Migration Patterns:According to the U.S.Census,the Sun Belt continues to lead in population growth,with more than 400,000 new residents in both Texas and Florida in 2022.Population growth leads to household formation,and in turn,multifamily demand.Mortgage Costs:While rates

46、dropped slightly by year-end from November highs north of 7%,the cost of a 30-year mortgage is prohibitive to many buyers,slowing down home sales and keeping people in the rental market.Affordability:Rents have surged in most markets across the country,stressing renters budgets.A recent survey repor

47、ted by Bloomberg noted a significant share of Millennials moving back in with family in the past year in order to save money and because they couldnt afford the rent.Multifamily owners have noticed stalled household formation.Capital Flows:Multifamily has led U.S.sales volume for eight straight year

48、s,catalyzed by falling interest rates.Investors still rank multifamily as a top target,but higher borrowing costs are slowing down sales volume.How far and fast pricing adjusts will be an important factor in total sales volume.Multifamily10|2023 Commercial Real Estate OutlookU.S.National Multifamily

49、 Forecast Leasing:With a wave of new development completing and uncertain economic conditions,landlords will offer concessions to lure in new renters or maintain existing occupancies,which will in turn weigh on NOI growth and values.Demand:Household formation is retrenching,rents are high,and new pr

50、oduct is coming,all of which will lower occupancies.While this isnt what owners want,occupancies are coming off record highs and will still be relatively strong.Sales Volume:While cap rates are facing upward pressure,multifamily remains a highly desirable asset class.Its higher borrowing costs are n

51、ot unique,so it can be expected to maintain its spot at the top of the investment mountain.Colliers U.S.Research Report|11Trends to Watch in 2023 Uninvested Capital:Near-record amounts of capital remain idle.How this is deployed and at what pace will be major factors in overall investment sales volu

52、mes in 2023.Value-add,opportunistic,and debt capital look to be the most active.Debt plays are yielding equity-like returns,causing a shift in capital allocations.Liquidity can be found,but from different sources.Defensive Strategies Remain Popular:Multifamily and industrial are the top two asset cl

53、asses attracting capital in 2023,per our recent Global Investor Outlook report.Theyre seen as safe harbor plays due to strong fundamentals and durable cash flows.Future of Office:Trophy properties are vastly outperforming all others,demonstrating the need for upgrading and occupiers focus on ESG-com

54、pliant assets.This need for new product will be difficult to meet,with capital investment preferring to upgrade existing assets.Conversions,repositioning,and recapitalizations will all be common themes throughout the year as the office sector evolves.Distress will emerge.Retail and Hotel Investors S

55、tay the Course:Grocery-anchored centers and luxury hotels were the top asset segments in our Global Investor Outlook survey.Grocery-anchored properties have proven resilient,while luxury hotels have shown incredible market fundamentals.Alternatives are Mainstream:Life sciences assets,data centers,an

56、d student housing once again ranked first,second,and third for alternative assets in our survey,respectively.They offer demographically driven upside and strong fundamentals and can be expected to continue attracting investors.Capital Markets12|2023 Commercial Real Estate OutlookU.S.National Capital

57、 Markets Forecast Volume:Elevated borrowing costs,persistent inflation,and strong fundamentals should limit deal volume in the first part of 2023.Unless owners need to sell due to a redemption queue or capital event such as a debt maturity,many will hold on and ride out this period of uncertainty.Th

58、is will limit aggregate sales volume at the beginning of the year.By the second half,investors holding capital will be back seeking deals.Year-over-year volume comparisons will look harsh for the first two quarters.Pricing:The public markets have been repriced,while private real estate has just begu

59、n to show signs of going through this.This lag effect will take time to play out.Until the private market realizes losses,there will continue to be a wide bid-ask spread.Distress:Distress will emerge in 2023 across asset classes.Investors have been and are continuing to raise rescue capital.Owners w

60、ill find challenged valuations upon debt maturity or refinancing,necessitating equity capital infusion,and those in tight spots will hand the keys back to the bank.Colliers U.S.Research Report|This document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only.Coll

61、iers International makes no guarantees,representations or warranties of any kind,expressed or implied,regarding the information including,but not limited to,warranties of content,accuracy and reliability.Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information.

62、Colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms,conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from.This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers International and/or its licensor(s).2023.All

63、 rights reserved.Research Steig SeawardSenior Director,National Research|U.S.+1 303 888 Stephen NewboldDirector,National Office Research|U.S.+1 202 534 Aaron JodkaDirector,National Capital Markets Research|U.S.+1 617 330 OfficeKevin MorganPresident,Northwest/North Central Head of Agency Leasing|U.S.

64、+1 775 823 Scott NelsonCEO,Occupier Services|Global+1 470 386 Chris ZlockiHead of Client Experience EVP Occupier Services|Global+1 313 595 IndustrialStephanie RodriguezNational Director Industrial Services|U.S.+1 954 553 RetailAnjee SolankiNational Director Retail Services|U.S.+1 415 288 Capital MarketsDavid AmsterdamPresident,Capital Markets and Northeast Region|U.S.+1 212 716 Amanda OrtizDirector,National Industrial Research|U.S.+1 847 698 Nicole LarsonManager,National Retail Research|U.S.+1 954 652