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1、An introduction to using energy and emissions data to inform strategic decisions TRANSITIONING TO SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY CONTENTSINTRODUCTIONSUSTAINABLE MOBILITY NAVIGATING THE MANY TRADE-OFFS OF YOUR NET ZERO TRANSITIONASSESSMENT EXAMPLE 1ASSESSMENT EXAMPLE 234679BRINGING TOGETHER PROPULSION,ENERGY,A

2、ND DIGITAL TO ENABLE SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY103Sustainable MobilitySustainable Mobility3INTRODUCTION:MAKING LONG-TERM DECISIONS IN A COMPLEX,CHANGING WORLDThe automotive industry must play its role in delivering net zero by 2050,by creating low and zero emissions vehicles.The strategic decisions that w

3、ill deliver this vision will take time to filter through into new vehicle designs,supply chains and consumer behavior.However,they must be taken now.Demand for vehicles and fuel is increasing as the world becomes more global and urban.Every increase in a vehicles emissions is multiplied as more peop

4、le drive them.We must therefore make vehicles as sustainable as possible.But what does maximum sustainability look like?What fuel and propulsion methods should you use?What raw materials should you pursue?Where should you manufacture?These big decisions will set corporate direction for years,and wil

5、l be hard to change once committed to.Yet they will be impacted by complex trade-offs beyond your control,from land use,to infrastructure,to competition for energy resources from other industries.When setting a strategy for 30 years or more,how can we ensure we take all the competing factors into ac

6、count to make the best decisions?This paper uses worked examples to explore how to think about these decisions,and discusses how to take this thinking into your organization.4Sustainable MobilitySustainable Mobility4SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY THE SIZE OF THE EMISSIONS-REDUCTION PRIZEThere are a lot of veh

7、icles on the road,and numbers will only grow.In 2022,just shy of 80 million vehicles were sold.This is projected to grow to nearly 96.5m by 20291.This is particularly driven by Asia,where private ownership of cars will increase sharply with urbanisation and the continued growth of the middle classes

8、.In the USA there are 890 vehicles per thousand people vs 221 vehicle per thousand people in China2.Thats a lot of room to grow.1 7 year light vehicle sales forecast data,IHS Markit 2 List of countries by vehicles per capita,WikipediaFigure 1Global light vehicle sales by 2029Source:IHS Markit19milli

9、on5million18million5million41millionNorthAmericaSouthAmericaEuropeAfrica/Middle EastAsia5Sustainable MobilitySustainable Mobility5Every one of these vehicles has a carbon footprint defined by its materials,production,and its in-use emissions ie those produced by the energy source that powers it,whet

10、her that is combusting oil,or generating electricity or fuel.The latter is partly beyond the control of the automaker,and will vary by location(depending on energy mixes,distance from fuel source,etc)but must be considered when making sustainable design choices.Every vehicle sold multiplies those em

11、issions.But,equally,every reduction in emissions is multiplied.This means we must look into the overall lifecycle of a vehicle,from cradle to grave.Then we must make decisions to minimise their emissions to achieve the maximum sustainability possible.Production phaseUse phaseHandover to customerSupp

12、ly chainProductionLogisticsWell-to-tankTank-to-wheelEnd of Life8.4Scope 3 Production:Procured goods and services0.7Scope 1 and 2:Mercedes-BenzCars production1.1Scope 3 logistics:Transport and distribution(upstream and downstream)6.3Scope 3:Use phase:Fuel production and electricity generation(well-to

13、-tank)32.2Scope 3:Use phase:Vehicle operation(tank-to-wheel)0.4Scope 3 End of Life:Recycling and waste disposalSource:Mercedes-Benz(page 139)Figure 2Scope 1,Scope 2,and selected Scope CO2 emissions in tons per vehicle.Sustainable Mobility6 6Some things are clear.A low or zero carbon vehicle cannot h

14、ave an internal combustion engine(ICE)even one that uses cleaner fuels since these will still produce polluting NOx.The alternative options on the table are a battery electric vehicle(BEV)or a hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle(FCEV).Most automotive manufacturers recognise that,although many are pu

15、rsuing multiple routes.Is this a good strategy?Given that even these mechanisms will not be completely emissions-free in the short term since electricity and hydrogen are not yet produced by 100%renewable energy there is also the need to use digitalisation and automation to minimise fuel consumption

16、.But how?Beyond that,there is a need to rethink the design,development and manufacturing of the vehicle.It is important to understand the material,and how it is assembled,in order to minimise supply chain emissions,maximise recyclability,and create a design that will reduce energy needs in use eg th

17、rough lighter materials.For EVs,we must look at the choice of battery materials to understand how the raw material will be mined,and which energy source and how much energy is needed for the production of the battery,so we can understand the CO2 impact per kWh.All these factors must be balanced.To u

18、nderstand this,and make the right decision,we need a deep understanding of the full life cycle,which understands how all the overlapping factors influence each other.We call this an integrative Life Cycle Assessment,or iLCA.This gives us the insights to make smart strategic decisions.In the followin

19、g sections we explore how we might assess some key factors in the lifecycle emissions of a vehicle in order to reach a final strategic decision.For the purposes of providing generalisable examples in this paper,these are top-level and designed to be illustrative of how we might reach results,rather

20、than de facto recommendations,which will always be bespoke to a company,depending on its strategy and markets.NAVIGATING THE MANY TRADE-OFFS OF YOUR NET ZERO TRANSITION7Sustainable MobilitySustainable Mobility7ASSESSMENT EXAMPLE 1:THE IMPACT OF THE ENERGY SOURCE ON SUSTAINABLE MOBILITYLets assume we

21、 are looking at three low carbon propulsion approaches for our next range of vehicles,and our goal is maximum emissions reduction:Electric Hydrogen E-fuels Which one should you pursue to achieve the most sustainable vehicle?We can inform this decision by looking at the complete flow from the source

22、to the vehicle,a process known as:WELL-TO-WHEEL(see illustration).In an electrical power source ie a battery we lose about 24%of the energy between the primary energy source and the propulsion.This is due to losses between generation,transmission,charging and in the battery itself.In other words,for

23、 10kWh of energy generated,we will get 7.6kWh of driving power.If we look at hydrogen fuel feeding a fuel cell(which also involves a small battery),these lose about 70%of energy over the value chain,so that same 10kWh of primary energy gets us 3kWh of driving.Then,we can look at E-fuels(Power to Liq

24、uid).If were using an ICE to burn E-Fuel,were losing 87%of the energy along the way,so 10kWh of primary energy produces just 1.3kWh for driving.E-fuels are only CO2 neutral if they are produced by green energy and if CO2 is directly taken out of the air.E-Fuels are still polluting(i.e NOx,.).8Sustai

25、nable MobilitySustainable Mobility8Once we know the energy requirements we need to consider where this energy comes from.For this analysis,lets assume we are aiming to produce this power with renewable energy.To produce the primary energy we must build renewable energy sources such as wind turbines.

26、If we have lower overall efficiency,we need more turbines to produce the same energy(see diagram).That infrastructure comes with its own environmental cost in the short term the opportunity cost of replacing fossil fuel power,in the long term the need to build more infrastructure to meet higher powe

27、r demands.Source:VW news storiesSo we see in the case of cars when looking at the whole picture battery vehicles represent the more sustainable option in most instances.This picture could of course become much more detailed in a bespoke analysis.Hydrogen has benefits over electricity such as being e

28、asier to store and transport,so there will be exceptions where those benefits take precedence,such as vehicles that need to travel long distances away from electricity sources,or if countries have green hydrogen infrastructure but not green electricity.The point is that only by a full analysis well-

29、to-wheel,considering the energy requirements and emissions of energy sources,can we get a reliable picture of the most sustainable decisions.Battery vehiclesFACTOR:1Hydrogen fuel cell vehiclesFACTOR:2.5E-fuel vehiclesFACTOR:5.8Energy input equivalent per unit of energy outputWELL-TO-TANKTANK-TO-WHEE

30、LOVERALL EFFICIENCY RATE100%70%61.6%49.3%32%30%100%80%76%OVERALL EFFICIENCY RATEEnergyElectrolysisCompressionand liquefactionTransportion and fillingFuel cell and power generationElectric battery(high capacity)E-engineHydrogen carEnergyTransportationand StorageElectric battery(high capacity)E-engine

31、E-car9Sustainable MobilitySustainable Mobility9ASSESSMENT EXAMPLE 2:THE IMPACT OF THE BATTERY AND THE GRID Now lets assume,following the above assessment,we want to pursue a BEV strategy.Of course,the battery itself comes with a CO2 footprint.How can we minimise this?The size of the batterys CO2 foo

32、tprint is highly influenced by the energy source which is used to power the manufacturing facility making the cells,and the battery system.There are very large differences between countries power mix which feeds their electricity grid.For example,looking at three major manufacturing countries,we see

33、 the CO2 emission for a kWh of power is(as of August 16th,2022):South Korea502g COe/kWhFrance77g COe/kWhGermany279g COe/kWhWe must also consider the transport of raw materials and assembled parts how far will they travel?Which vehicles will transport them?What are those vehicles carbon emissions per

34、 km?Then we must look at the emissions to produce the energy for EV charging,based on the grids in different markets.Again,we see huge differences between countries,which will impact our roadmap to net zero vehicles(August 16th,2022):New South Wales(AUSTRALIA)742g COe/kWhSweden 26g COe/kWh Finally,w

35、e need to consider recycling-today it is already possible to recycle up to 95%of a battery.In all cases,we need models of each countrys energy mix.Into these,we can add our own data on materials used,locations,and vehicle charging needs to get reliable projections of lifetime emissions.The point her

36、e is that all of this needs to be properly assessed in order to create a roadmap for vehicles with“clean”propulsion,using 100%renewable energy,and a circular economy of parts,with close to ZERO impact on the environment.10Sustainable MobilitySustainable Mobility10PLANNING YOUR NET ZERO TRANSITION ST

37、RATEGYAs this paper shows,the maximum sustainability for most light vehicles mobility involves electrification and renewable energy to power both production and charging.But of course that is not the end of the story.Within that broad claim,many companies and regions will face specific challenges an

38、d opportunities that change the calculus.Other vehicles and products will have different optimal routes.Companies wishing to make the transition to net zero must understand the best route for them.The way to do that is a lifetime transition assessment.This must consider internal and external factors

39、 relating to fuel source,energy required to generate that fuel,efficiency from generation to transportation to use,as well as the myriad ways vehicles can be optimized either in design or use.Good transition planning requires an understanding of many different factors,not just in isolation,but withi

40、n an ecosystem where resources have upper limits,and other industries may make decisions that compete with your own.Making good decisions needs highly sophisticated system-of-systems modeling,combining your own engineering and supply chain models with climate,energy,demographic and macroeconomic mod

41、els.Perfect future forecasting is of course impossible,but by taking a system-of-systems approach it is possible to build up highly predictive models of what any long-term decision will look like.From there,you can make the best technology decisions,from propulsion mechanisms,to assisted driving,to

42、the systems engineering that holds it all together.About the authorKlaus Feldmann Chief Technical Officer for automotive sustainability&e-MobilityKlauss 22-year career in the Automotive industry began in the Research and Development departments of FORD Europe and AUDI.He found his passion for sustai

43、nability and e-Mobility in 2010.His involvement in several innovative commercial and special vehicle projects for MAN and ZF has been honored with the eCarTec Award 2012.He has gained a deep expertise of the complete e-mobility ecosystem and demonstrated proven experience as strategic Product-line M

44、anager at StreetScooter and as consultant of e-Mobility for the Fleet of the Deutsche Post DHL.Since 2022,Klaus has been the Chief Technical Officer for Automotive Sustainability&e-Mobility Capgemini engineering.About Capgemini EngineeringWorld leader in engineering and R&D services,Capgemini Engine

45、ering combines its broad industry knowledge and cutting-edge technologies in digital and software to support the convergence of the physical and digital worlds.Coupled with the capabilities of the rest of the Group,it helps clients to accelerate their journey towards Intelligent Industry.Capgemini E

46、ngineering has more than 55,000 engineer and scientist team members in over 30 countries across sectors including Aeronautics,Space,Defense,Naval,Automotive,Rail,Infrastructure&Transportation,Energy,Utilities&Chemicals,Life Sciences,Communications,Semiconductor&Electronics,Industrial&Consumer,Softwa

47、re&Internet.Capgemini Engineering is an integral part of the Capgemini Group,global leader in partnering with companies to transform and manage their business by harnessing the power of technology.The Group is guided everyday by its purpose of unleashing human energy through technology for an inclus

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