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1、 2023 Boston Consulting Group1Climate technologiestechnologies that accelerate decarbonizationare essential to limiting globalwarming.Despite the many attractive opportunities for investing in clean tech,global investmentscontinue to fall short.As a result,many of todays companies lack the technolog

2、ies they need todecarbonize their operations and value chains.At the current level of investment,the second wave ofclimate technology innovation will follow the long and winding path of wind and solar:scaling up andreducing carbon emissions over 20 to 30 years.Ushering in the Next Generation ofClima

3、te TechnologyAPRIL 18,2023 By Thomas Baker,Bahar Carroll,Greg Fischer,Karan Mistry,Paulina Ponce de Len Barid,and TinaZuzek-ArdenREADING TIME:12 MIN1 2023 Boston Consulting Group2But we do not have 20 to 30 years.To reduce emissions and avoid the worst impacts of climate change,we need to spend$3.5

4、trillionevery year on climate technologies.Starting now.Public and philanthropic funding alone cannot fill thisgiant gap.But public and philanthropic funding combined with market-shaping mechanisms designedto accelerate the development and scaling of climate technologies can.(See“Executive Summary.”

5、)The Power of Market ShapingEXECUTIVE SUMMARY To achieve global net zero by 2050,the global community must invest$3.5 trillionper year in emerging climate technologies,such as green hydrogen,clean steel,and long-duration energy storage.Emerging climate technologies oen require significant amounts of

6、 capital withuncertain returns.Market-shaping mechanismssuch as innovative financing,climate-friendly legislation,and industry coalitionsreduce the investment risk.All companies,regardless of size or climate maturity,can play a role in creating amarket for emerging climate technologies.To define the

7、ir role in shaping the market and accelerating deployment of climatetech solutions,leaders should ask:What can my company do now?Define your decarbonization strategy;set tangible,actionable net-zero targets(rather than mere ambitions)and transition plans;issueadvance market commitments,especially wh

8、en you cannot act alone;and set sustainablefinancing commitments.What can my company do with industry partners now?Execute oake agreements andvolume guarantees,pool procurement of climate technologies,and join industrycoalitions.What should I advocate for?Advocate for just transition incentives,supp

9、ort permittingreform,and engage with the public sector to steer future policy.2023 Boston Consulting Group3Market shaping is a strategy used by companies,governments,and investors to address marketfailures and positively shape the development of a market.By coordinating actions with otherstakeholder

10、s,organizations can address the bottlenecks and breakdowns that occur within a diverseecosystem,distribute risk,and leverage purchasing power.In the case of climate technologies,marketshaping has the potential to dramatically speed up the green revolution.Consider this.The global equity market cap i

11、s$120 trillion,and the global fixed-income market isanother$120 trillion.By leveraging innovative market-shaping mechanisms,this huge pool of privatecapital that would otherwise go to less impactful investments can instead be directed into climateaction.Private capital can be used to advance novel t

12、echnologies faster,scale up proven solutions,andsupport adaptation and resilience to improve the lives of billions.A decade ago,we saw the power of market-shaping mechanisms in global health when governmentsand philanthropists committed$1.5 billion to GAVI,the Vaccine Alliance.This landmark public-p

13、rivatepartnership accelerated development and production of pneumococcal vaccines by at least five years,saving over half a million lives.Public and philanthropic funding combined with market-shaping mechanisms are keyto avoiding the worst impacts of climate change.The same sense of urgency and inve

14、stment are needed to address the defining challenge of our time:climate change.Market-shaping activities are most effective when multiple players have a stake in theoutcome,but limited incentives to act individually.Climate technology producers face uncertaintiesaround the potential demand and willi

15、ngness to pay for their products,while climate technologybuyers can be reluctant to make long-term purchase commitments.Market-shaping mechanisms playa crucial role in creating the collective incentive for players across the climate technology value chainby derisking both demand-side and supply-side

16、 factors and encouraging economies of scale.We know what happens if we dont invest aggressively in climate technologies.Recent models showthat if we had invested$5 billion into solar in 1985,solar would have scaledand started displacingcarbon-intensive power eight years sooner.The Challenges of Scal

17、ing Climate Technologies2 2023 Boston Consulting Group4Strategic investments in climate technologies,combined with market-shaping activities,can acceleratethe development and deployment of critical climate technologies.The aim of market shaping is toensure high-potential technologies can successfull

18、y cross the so-called valley of deaththe gap infunding that exists when companies want to transform a proven concept into a viable and affordableproduct.(See Exhibit 1.)We have identified eight emerging technologies(beyond solar and wind)that,with the help of marketshaping,can get us to net zero:ele

19、ctric vehicles,clean steel,green cement,sustainable aviation fuel,direct air capture,low-carbon hydrogen,long-duration energy storage,and advanced nuclear small-modular reactors.(See Exhibit 2.)2023 Boston Consulting Group5At maturity,and if adopted at scale,these technologies could collectively ena

20、ble about 22 gigatonnesper year in global emissions abatement and fuel a cumulative global market size of$45 to$60 trillionthrough 2050.But these emerging climate technologies will not achieve widespread adoption until we remove thefollowing barriers:Unattractive Risk-Return Profile for Institutiona

21、l Investors.Without proper incentives,organizationscan be reluctant to invest in unproven technologies under development given the risk that thetechnologies may fail.Unproven Markets.When introducing a new product,companies must prove that its safe,reliable,affordable,and scalableand prove to invest

22、ors it is commercially viable to raise capital.Subscale Investments for Projects.Even promising projects can languish for years in the valley ofdeath as they seek additional funding from governments and other sources to scale up.Insufficient Value Proposition for Corporate Buyers.Some climate techno

23、logies will come at a costpremium as they scale without additional functional benefits;companies must be willing to paythat differential.2023 Boston Consulting Group6The good news is that these barriers can be overcome with deliberate actions.In the US,for example,the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act pr

24、ovides both production and investment tax incentives for keyclimate technologies,including incentives to ramp up carbon-capture facilities and boost greenhydrogen production.The goal is to improve the overall risk-return profile and spur investments in theinnovative technologies most needed to meet

25、net-zero goals.These incentives have spurred action notjust in the US but globally,with many major economies developing similar plans to support the marketfor climate technologies.Market-shaping mechanisms like these can dramatically shi the economicviability of green energy and climate technology.H

26、ow to Drive New Forms of InvestmentCompanies and investors are experimenting with new mechanisms to accelerate the development andscaling of climate technologies.Here are some of the most promising ones being used today.Mobilize capital through innovative finance and send clear demand signals.Compan

27、ies canaccelerate the development and deployment of climate technologies by mobilizing capital through avariety of mechanisms,including advance market commitments,concessional capital,oakeagreements,volume guarantees,and coalitions.These mechanisms not only provide alternativefunding sources beyond

28、institutional investors to help companies cross the valley of death but alsosupport mitigation beyond companies value chains and help address some of the imbalance thatexists today between net zero targets and available offset mechanisms.Advance Market Commitments(AMCs).With AMCs,a pool of money is

29、allocated to purchase largequantities of a product at established prices,which incentivizes large-scale development anddeployment at an affordable price.Example:Frontier Climate has committed$925 million to fund the development of carbonremoval technologies between 2022 and 2030.Frontiers AMCs send

30、a strong demand signalwithout favoring any particular technology.Similarly,the Carbon Removal Alliance,anindustry group of 20-plus members,is working to advance policies that support permanentcarbon removal technologies.Concessional Capital.Concessional capital aims to benefit the greater good and c

31、atalyze additionalthird-party investment,making it a more patient and risk-tolerant investment.Example:Breakthrough Energy Catalyst has raised over$1.5 billion of concessional capitalfrom philanthropies,governments,and companies to support large-scale demonstrations ofcritical climate technologies.O

32、akes,Volume Guarantees,and Pooled Procurement.These mechanisms deploy capital when atechnology is available for purchase,reducing the financial risk companies face when scaling up 2023 Boston Consulting Group7Advocate for and implement beneficial policy mechanisms.Companies can also work withgovernm

33、ents and regulators to spur investment in promising technologies so they can scale up andbecome more affordable,which in turn incentivizes financial institutions and buyers to invest in thetechnology.Here are just a few examples:Investment is flowing.In 2021,venture capital and private equity in cli

34、mate technologies exceeded$50billion,and in 2022,the US Inflation Reduction Act devoted approximately$400 billion in funding toaccelerate climate tech.Now is the time for corporations and financial institutions to execute market-production.Oakes and volume guarantees can be purchased in conjunction

35、with othercompanies(using a mechanism called pooled procurement),allowing buyers to gain purchasingpower and secure supply.Example:The Clean Energy Buyers Association deploys clean energy and tracks utility-scaledeals in the procurement of renewables,where the deals serve as customer-led volumeguara

36、ntees for renewables providers.Coalitions can send a clear signal that market demand exists for climate technologies.Example:As part of First Movers Coalition,50+companies committed to decarbonizingseven hard-to-abate industrial sectors by purchasing clean energy technologies.This includesadvance pu

37、rchasing a portion of materials and transportation needed from suppliers usingnear-zero or zero-carbon solutions.Permitting.Permitting and reviews can be a hurdle that slows deployment of many climatetechnologies.The direct and indirect costs of permitting can account for 30%of residential solarinst

38、allation costs and the average wait time for installation has doubled from 2005 to 2020.Incentives.In the United States,the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act implemented an$85 per toncredit for permanent geological sequestration of CO2 and a 60%investment tax credit for newsolar projects,among many other

39、s.Climate Auctions.More than 100 countries are using auction-based approaches to subsidizerenewable energy,and many have achieved renewable energy prices that are lower thantraditional power sources.Feed-in Tariffs.With agreement from the regulator,in 2013,Dominion Energy created a feed-intariff for

40、 residential and commercial solar photovoltaic generators in the United States.Participants receive 15 cents per kilowatt hour for all solar photovoltaic-generated electricityprovided to the grid,which has helped bring 2,200 megawatts of solar into operation in ten statesenough energy to power about

41、 550,000 homes at peak output.2023 Boston Consulting Group8shaping activities to further legitimize markets,advance climate technologies toward large-scalecommercialization,and gain benefits and competitive advantage in the process.Next Steps for Developing a Market-Shaping StrategyEvery organizatio

42、n can take steps to dramatically accelerate adoption of climate technologies withinand beyond their value chain.For companies and financial institutions that wish to participate in market shaping and reap itsbenefits,there are a range of options to consider.For example,companies can reduce carbonemi

43、ssions throughout their value chain,work with industry partners to increase the scale of existinginitiatives,spearhead market-shaping initiatives,and advocate for policies that are favorable toclimate technology adoption.Market shaping is a win-win for companies,allowing them to secure supply,meetcl

44、imate goals,and increase internal know-how on essential technologies.Financial institutions can incorporate climate metrics into their investment strategy,encourageportfolio companies to disclose climate data,launch sustainability-linked instruments,and joinmarket-leading efforts to fund commercial-

45、scale green technologies.While financial institutions arefacing scrutiny around climate initiatives,the benefits of climate investments will continue to grow overtime,creating a singular opportunity to shape the market.The slideshow lays out the most important actions companies and financial institu

46、tions can take nowto shape the market for emerging climate technologies and speed progress toward globaldecarbonization.2023 Boston Consulting Group9If we want to achieve global net zero,we cant allow climate technologies to evolve at their currentpace.They will take far too long to scale.To move th

47、e market faster,we need to encourage new waysof investing.Market shaping is a win-win for companies,allowing them to secure supply,meet climate goals,andincrease internal know-how on essential technologies.By aligning private capital,public capital,andpublic policy,market shaping can play a key role

48、 in ensuring climate technologies gain the traction theyneed to scaleand ultimately transform our world.The authors thank BCGs Connor Sendel and Habib Azarabadi for their contributions to this article.2023 Boston Consulting Group10AuthorsThomas BakerMANAGING DIRECTOR&PARTNERSan Francisco-Bay AreaBah

49、ar CarrollPROJECT LEADERSeattleGreg FischerPARTNER AND DIRECTORLondonKaran MistryPARTNERLos AngelesPaulina Ponce de Len BaridMANAGING DIRECTOR&PARTNERSan Francisco-Bay AreaTina Zuzek-ArdenMANAGING DIRECTOR&PARTNERWashington,DC ABOUT BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP1“From Clean Tech 1.0 to Climate Tech 2.0:A

50、New Era of Investment Opportunities,”B CapitalGroup,January 17,2023,https:/ the Clean Industrial Revolution,Breakthrough Energy,October 29,2021,https:/breakthroughenergy.org/news/financing-the-clean-industrial-revolution/.2023 Boston Consulting Group11Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in

51、 business and society to tackle their most importantchallenges and capture their greatest opportunities.BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it wasfounded in 1963.Today,we work closely with clients to embrace a transformational approach aimed atbenefiting all stakeholdersempowering organiza

52、tions to grow,build sustainable competitive advantage,and drive positive societal impact.Our diverse,global teams bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of perspectives thatquestion the status quo and spark change.BCG delivers solutions through leading-edge managementconsulting,tec

53、hnology and design,and corporate and digital ventures.We work in a uniquely collaborativemodel across the firm and throughout all levels of the client organization,fueled by the goal of helping ourclients thrive and enabling them to make the world a better place.Boston Consulting Group 2023.All rights reserved.For information or permission to reprint,please contact BCG at .To find the latestBCG content and register to receive e-alerts on this topic or others,please visit .Follow BostonConsulting Group on Facebook and Twitter.