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1、Global EV Outlook 2023Catching up with climate ambitionsThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA

2、advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,11 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of

3、international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexic

4、oNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TrkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaMoroccoSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraineINT

5、ERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYGlobal EV Outlook 2023 Abstract Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|3 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Abstract The Global EV Outlook is an annual publication that identifies and discusses recent developments in electric mobility across the globe.It is developed with the support of the membe

6、rs of the Electric Vehicles Initiative(EVI).Combining historical analysis with projections to 2030,the report examines key areas of interest such as electric vehicle and charging infrastructure deployment,battery demand,electricity consumption,oil displacement,greenhouse gas emissions and related po

7、licy developments.The report includes analysis of lessons learned from leading markets to inform policy makers and stakeholders about policy frameworks and market systems for electric vehicle adoption.This edition features analysis of the financial performance of EV-related companies,venture capital

8、 investments in EV-related technologies,and trade of electric vehicles.Finally,the report makes available two online tools:the Global EV Data Explorer and Global EV Policy Explorer,which allow users to interactively explore EV statistics and projections,and policy measures worldwide.Global EV Outloo

9、k 2023 Acknowledgements Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|4 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements,contributors and credits The Global EV Outlook 2023 was prepared by the Energy Technology Policy(ETP)Division of the Directorate of Sustainability,Technology and Outlooks(STO)of the International Energy

10、Agency(IEA).The project was designed and directed by Timur Gl,Head of the Energy Technology Policy Division.Araceli Fernandez Pales,Head of the Technology Innovation Unit,provided strategic guidance throughout the development of the project.Elizabeth Connelly co-ordinated the analysis and production

11、 of the report.The principal IEA authors were(in alphabetical order):Oskaras Alsauskas,Elizabeth Connelly,Andrew Daou,Alexandre Gouy,Mathilde Huismans,Hyeji Kim,Jean-Baptiste Le Marois,Shane McDonagh,Apostolos Petropoulos and Jacob Teter.Takashi Nomura,Aditya Ramji and Biqing Yang contributed to the

12、 research on EV-supportive policies and OEM electrification plans.Laurence Cret,Amrita Dasgupta,Stavroula Evangelopoulou and Carl Greenfield provided targeted support to the project.Keisuke Sadamori,IEAs Director for Energy Markets and Security;Laura Cozzi,IEAs Chief Energy Modeller;Tim Gould,IEAs C

13、hief Energy Economist;and Stphanie Bouckaert,Head of the Demand Sectors Unit provided valuable insights and feedback.The development of this report benefited from comments from IEA colleagues:Tanguy De Bienassis,Julia Guyon,Megumi Kotani,Alison Pridmore,Thomas Spencer and Jacques Warichet.Per-Anders

14、 Widell provided essential support throughout the process.Lizzie Sayer edited the manuscript.Thanks also to Curtis Brainard,Poeli Bojorquez,Jon Custer,Astrid Dumond,Merve Erdil,Grace Gordon,Oliver Joy,Barbara Moure,Jad Mouawad,Jethro Mullen,Isabelle Nonain-Semelin,Julie Puech,Charner Ramsey,Clara Va

15、llois,Gregory Viscusi,Lucile Wall,and Wonjik Yang of the Communications and Digital Office.The work could not have been achieved without the financial support provided by the EVI member governments,including Canada,Chile,China,Finland,Germany,India,Japan,the Netherlands,New Zealand,Norway,Poland,Swe

16、den,United Kingdom and the United States.Global EV Outlook 2023 Acknowledgements Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|5 IEA.CC BY 4.0.The report benefited from the high calibre data and support provided by the following colleagues:Thassa Antunes(Ministry of Mines and Energy,Brazil);Daniel Barber(

17、Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority,New Zealand);Lisa Bjergbakke(Centre for Systems Analysis,Denmark);Klaas Burgdorf(Swedish Energy Agency);Isabel Del Olmo Flrez(Institute for Diversification and Saving of Energy,Spain);Laurent Demilie(Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport,Belgium);

18、Albert Dessi(Department of Climate Change,Energy,the Environment and Water,Australia);Fatima Habib(Office for Zero Emission Vehicles,United Kingdom);Nishi Hidetaka and Taiki Watanabe(Ministry of Economy,Trade and Industry,Japan;Kaja Jankowska(Ministry of Climate and Environment,Poland);Federico Kara

19、gulian(ENEA,Italy);Sylne Lasfargues(Ministry of Ecological Transition,France);Sky Liu(China Society of Automotive Engineers);Walter Mauritsch(Austrian Energy Agency);Gereon Meyer(VDI/VDE Innovation+Technik GmbH,Germany),Matteo Muratori(NREL,United States);Andi Novianto(Coordinating Ministry for Econ

20、omic Affairs,Indonesia);Elvis Octave(Seychelles Public Transport Corporation);Sameer Pandit(Bureau of Energy Efficiency,India);Hiten Parmar(uYilo e-Mobility Programme,South Africa);Velvet Rosemberg Fuentes(Secretariat of Energy,Mexico);Kitchanon Ruangjirakit(King Mongkuts University of Technology Th

21、onburi,Thailand);Daniel Schaller(Swiss Federal Office of Energy);Daniel Thorsell(Norwegian Public Roads Administration;Sai Santhosh Tota(VTT,Finland);Luz Ubilla Borquez(Ministry of Energy,Chile);Katerina Vardava(Ministry of Environment and Energy,Greece);Alexandre Videira(Mobi.E,Portugal);William Vi

22、sser(Netherlands Enterprise Agency,Netherlands).Francois Cuenot(UNECE)provided the box on technical regulations.Peer reviewers provided essential feedback to improve the quality of the report.They include:Koichiro Aikawa(Honda);Takafumi Anegawa(TEPCO);Thassa Antunes(Ministry of Mines and Energy,Braz

23、il);Angel Carlos Aparicio and Bahtiyar Kurt(UNDP);Harmeet Bawa(Hitachi Energy);Maya Ben Dror(WEF Circular Car Initiative);Filippo Berardi and Esteban Bermudez Forn(GEF Secretariat);Georg Bieker and Marie Rajon Bernard(ICCT);Tomoko Blech(CHAdeMO);Krzysztof Burda,Paulina Muszyska and Marcin Nowak(Poli

24、sh Chamber of E-Mobility,PIRE);Carol Burelle(HEV TCP);Klaas Burgdorf(Swedish Energy Agency);Francisco Cabeza(Element);Ryan Castilloux(Adams Intelligence);Yong Chen and Nicholas Wagner(IRENA);Matteo Craglia(ITF);Francois Cuenot(UNECE);Ilka von Dalwigk(InnoEnergy-European Battery Alliance);Thomas Delo

25、ison(WBCSD),Laurent Demilie(Federal Public Service Mobility and Transport,Belgium);Albert Dessi(Department of Climate Change,Energy,the Environment and Water,Australia);Alejandro Falkner Falgueras(Enel Grids);Aaron Fishbone(Charge-Up);Hiroyuki Fukui,Marie Ishikawa and Hidenori Moriya(Toyota);Yariv G

26、abay(Ministry of Finance,Israel);Saki Gerassis-Davite(DG Mobility and Transport,European Commission);Xavier Guichet(IFPEN);Global EV Outlook 2023 Acknowledgements Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|6 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Nishi Hidetaka and Taiki Watanabe(Ministry of Economy,Trade and Industry,Japan);N

27、ikolas Hill(Ricardo AEA);Antonio Iliceto(Terna Rete Italia);Kaja Jankowska(Ministry of Climate and Environment,Poland);Daisy Jennings-Gray(Benchmark mineral intelligence);Hiroyuki Kaneko(Nissan Motor Co.,Ltd);Federico Karagulian and Francesco Vellucci(ENEA,Italy);Paolo Liel Karpel(Enel X);Tarek Kesk

28、es(World Bank);Yossapong Laoonual(King Mongkuts University of Technology Thonburi);Sylne Lasfargues(Ministry of Ecological Transition,France);Francisco Laveron(Iberdrola);Pimpa Limthongkul(Entec Thailand);Sky Liu(China Society of Automotive Engineers);Aaron Loiselle(Environment and Climate Change Ca

29、nada);Maurizio Maggiore(DG Research&Innovation,European Commission);John Maples(EIA,Department of Energy,US);Indradip Mitra(GIZ);Matteo Muratori(NREL);Khac-Tiep Nguyen(UNIDO);Andi Novianto(Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs,Indonesia);Mario Duran Ortiz(Independent);Alessio Pastore and Davide

30、 Puglielli(Enel);Karl Piskorek(BMW);Patrick Pltz(Fraunhofer);Lucija Rakocevic(Th!nk E);Sandra Rolling(The Climate Group);Sacha Scheffer(Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management,Netherlands);Erno Scheers(Shell);Lorenzo Schirinzi(Enel X Way);Wulf-Peter Schmidt(Ford);Sudhendu Jyoti Sinha(India);

31、Robert Spicer(BP);Thierry Spiess(Natural Resources Canada);Detlef Stolten(AFC TCP);Jacopo Tattini(JRC,European Commission);Joscelyn Terrell and Fatima Habib(Office for Zero Emission Vehicles,UK);Daniel Thorsell(Norwegian Public Road Administration);Lyle Trytten(Independent);Katarina Vardava(Ministry

32、 of Environment and Energy,Greece);Michael Wang(Argonne National Lab)and Caroline Watson(C40).Global EV Outlook 2023 Table of contents Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|7 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Table of contents Executive summary.8 Electric Vehicles Initiative.13 Trends and developments in EV markets.1

33、4 Electric light-duty vehicles.14 Electric heavy-duty vehicles.38 Charging infrastructure.43 Batteries.55 Policy developments and corporate strategy.63 Overview.63 Policy to develop EV supply chains.66 Policy support for electric light-duty vehicles.72 Policy support for electric heavy-duty vehicles

34、.81 Policy support for EV charging infrastructure.83 A multiplying number of international initiatives and pledges.86 Electrification plans by original equipment manufacturers(OEMs).89 Global spending on electric cars continues to increase.93 Finance,venture capital and trade.95 Prospects for electr

35、ic vehicle deployment.107 Outlook for electric mobility.107 Battery demand.121 Charging infrastructure.123 Impact on energy demand and emissions.129 General annex.137 Global EV Outlook 2023 Executive summary Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|8 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary Electric car sales

36、 break new records with momentum expected to continue through 2023 Electric car markets are seeing exponential growth as sales exceeded 10 million in 2022.A total of 14%of all new cars sold were electric in 2022,up from around 9%in 2021 and less than 5%in 2020.Three markets dominated global sales.Ch

37、ina was the frontrunner once again,accounting for around 60%of global electric car sales.More than half of the electric cars on roads worldwide are now in China and the country has already exceeded its 2025 target for new energy vehicle sales.In Europe,the second largest market,electric car sales in

38、creased by over 15%in 2022,meaning that more than one in every five cars sold was electric.Electric car sales in the United States the third largest market increased 55%in 2022,reaching a sales share of 8%.Electric car sales are expected to continue strongly through 2023.Over 2.3 million electric ca

39、rs were sold in the first quarter,about 25%more than in the same period last year.We currently expect to see 14 million in sales by the end of 2023,representing a 35%year-on-year increase with new purchases accelerating in the second half of this year.As a result,electric cars could account for 18%o

40、f total car sales across the full calendar year.National policies and incentives will help bolster sales,while a return to the exceptionally high oil prices seen last year could further motivate prospective buyers.There are promising signs for emerging electric vehicle(EV)markets,albeit from a small

41、 base.Electric car sales are generally low outside the major markets,but 2022 was a growth year in India,Thailand and Indonesia.Collectively,sales of electric cars in these countries more than tripled compared to 2021,reaching 80 000.For Thailand,the share of electric cars in total sales came in at

42、slightly over 3%in 2022,while both India and Indonesia averaged around 1.5%last year.In India,EV and component manufacturing is ramping up,supported by the governments USD 3.2 billion incentive programme that has attracted investments totalling USD 8.3 billion.Thailand and Indonesia are also strengt

43、hening their policy support schemes,potentially providing valuable experience for other emerging market economies seeking to foster EV adoption.Global EV Outlook 2023 Executive summary Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|9 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Landmark EV policies are driving the outlook for EVs closer

44、 to climate ambitions Market trends and policy efforts in major car markets are supporting a bright outlook for EV sales.Under the IEA Stated Policies Scenario(STEPS),the global outlook for the share of electric car sales based on existing policies and firm objectives has increased to 35%in 2030,up

45、from less than 25%in the previous outlook.In the projections,China retains its position as the largest market for electric cars with 40%of total sales by 2030 in the STEPS.The United States doubles its market share to 20%by the end of the decade as recent policy announcements drive demand,while Euro

46、pe maintains its current 25%share.Projected demand for electric cars in major car markets will have profound implications on energy markets and climate goals in the current policy environment.Based on existing policies,oil demand from road transport is projected to peak around 2025 in the STEPS,with

47、 the amount of oil displaced by electric vehicles exceeding 5 million barrels per day in 2030.In the STEPS,emissions of around 700 Mt CO2-equivalents are avoided by the use of electric cars in 2030.The European Union and the United States have passed legislation to match their electrification ambiti

48、ons.The European Union adopted new CO2 standards for cars and vans that are aligned with the 2030 goals set out in the Fit for 55 package.In the United States,the Inflation Reduction Act(IRA),combined with adoption of Californias Advanced Clean Cars II rule by a number of states,could deliver a 50%m

49、arket share for electric cars in 2030,in line with the national target.The implementation of the recently proposed emissions standards from the US Environmental Protection Agency is set to further increase this share.Battery manufacturing continues to expand,encouraged by the outlook for EVs.As of M

50、arch 2023,announcements on battery manufacturing capacity delivered by 2030 are more than sufficient to meet the demand implied by government pledges and would even be able to cover the demand for electric vehicles in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.It is therefore well possible that higher

51、shares of sales are achievable for electric cars than those anticipated on the basis of current government policy and national targets.As spending and competition increase,a growing number of more affordable models come to market Global spending on electric cars exceeded USD 425 billion in 2022,up 5

52、0%relative to 2021.Only 10%of the spending can be attributed to government support,the remainder was from consumers.Investors have also maintained confidence in EVs,with the stocks of EV-related companies consistently Global EV Outlook 2023 Executive summary Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|1

53、0 IEA.CC BY 4.0.outperforming traditional carmakers since 2019.Venture capital investments in start-up firms developing EV and battery technologies have also boomed,reaching nearly USD 2.1 billion in 2022,up 30%relative to 2021,with investments increasing in batteries and critical minerals.SUVs and

54、large cars dominate available electric car options in 2022.They account for 60%of available BEV options in China and Europe and an even greater share in the United States,similar to the trend towards SUVs seen in internal combustion engine(ICE)car markets.In 2022,ICE SUVs emitted over 1 Gt CO2,far g

55、reater than the 80 Mt net emissions reductions from the electric vehicle fleet that year.Battery electric SUVs often have batteries that are two-to three-times larger than small cars,requiring more critical minerals.However,last year electric SUVs resulted in the displacement of over 150 000 barrels

56、 of oil consumption per day and avoided the associated tailpipe emissions that would have been generated through burning the fuel in combustion engines.The electric car market is increasingly competitive.A growing number of new entrants,primarily from China but also from other emerging markets,are o

57、ffering more affordable models.Major incumbent carmakers are increasing ambition as well,especially in Europe,and 2022-2023 saw another series of important EV announcements:fully electric fleets,cheaper cars,greater investment,and vertical integration with battery-making and critical minerals.Consum

58、ers can choose from an increasing number of options for electric cars.The number of available electric car models reached 500 in 2022,more than double the options available in 2018.However,outside of China,there is a need for original equipment manufacturers(OEMs)to offer affordable,competitively pr

59、iced options in order to enable mass adoption of EVs.Todays level of available electric car models is still significantly lower than the number of ICE options on the market,but the number of ICE models available has been steadily decreasing since its peak in the mid-2010s.Focus expands to electrific

60、ation of more vehicle segments as electric cars surge ahead Electrification of road transport goes beyond cars.Two or three-wheelers are the most electrified market segment today;in emerging markets and developing economies,they outnumber cars.Over half of Indias three-wheeler registrations in 2022

61、were electric,demonstrating their growing popularity due to government incentives and lower lifecycle costs compared with conventional models,especially in the context of higher fuel prices.In many developing economies,two/three-wheelers offer an affordable way to get access to mobility,meaning thei

62、r electrification is important to support sustainable development.Global EV Outlook 2023 Executive summary Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|11 IEA.CC BY 4.0.The commercial vehicle stock is also seeing increasing electrification.Electric light commercial vehicle(LCV)sales worldwide increased b

63、y more than 90%in 2022 to more than 310 000 vehicles,even as overall LCV sales declined by nearly 15%.In 2022,nearly 66 000 electric buses and 60 000 medium-and heavy-duty trucks were sold worldwide,representing about 4.5%of all bus sales and 1.2%of truck sales.Where governments have committed to re

64、duce emissions from public transport,such as in dense urban areas,electric bus sales reached even higher shares;in Finland,for example,electric bus sales accounted for over 65%in 2022.Ambition with respect to electrifying heavy-duty vehicles is growing.In 2022,around 220 electric heavy-duty vehicle

65、models entered the market,bringing the total to over 800 models offered by well over 100 OEMs.A total of 27 governments have pledged to achieve 100%ZEV bus and truck sales by 2040 and both the United States and European Union have also proposed stronger emissions standards for heavy-duty vehicles.EV

66、 supply chains and batteries gain greater prominence in policy-making The increase in demand for electric vehicles is driving demand for batteries and related critical minerals.Automotive lithium-ion(Li-ion)battery demand increased by about 65%to 550 GWh in 2022,from about 330 GWh in 2021,primarily

67、as a result of growth in electric passenger car sales.In 2022,about 60%of lithium,30%of cobalt and 10%of nickel demand was for EV batteries.Only five years prior,these shares were around 15%,10%and 2%,respectively.Reducing the need for critical materials will be important for supply chain sustainabi

68、lity,resilience and security,especially given recent price developments for battery material.New alternatives to conventional lithium-ion are on the rise.The share of lithium-iron-phosphate(LFP)chemistries reached its highest point ever,driven primarily by China:around 95%of the LFP batteries for el

69、ectric LDVs went into vehicles produced in China.Supply chains for(lithium-free)sodium-ion batteries are also being established,with over 100 GWh of manufacturing capacity either currently operating or announced,almost all in China.The EV supply chain is expanding,but manufacturing remains highly co

70、ncentrated in certain regions,with China being the main player in battery and EV component trade.In 2022,35%of exported electric cars came from China,compared with 25%in 2021.Europe is Chinas largest trade partner for both electric cars and their batteries.In 2022,the share of electric cars manufact

71、ured in China and sold in the European market increased to 16%,up from about 11%in 2021.Global EV Outlook 2023 Executive summary Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|12 IEA.CC BY 4.0.EV supply chains are increasingly at the forefront of EV-related policy-making to build resilience through diversi

72、fication.The Net Zero Industry Act,proposed by the European Union in March 2023,aims for nearly 90%of the European Unions annual battery demand to be met by EU battery manufacturers,with a manufacturing capacity of at least 550 GWh in 2030.Similarly,India aims to boost domestic manufacturing of elec

73、tric vehicles and batteries through Production Linked Incentive(PLI)schemes.In the United States,the Inflation Reduction Act emphasises the strengthening of domestic supply chains for EVs,EV batteries and battery minerals,laid out in the criteria to qualify for clean vehicle tax credits.As a result,

74、between August 2022 and March 2023,major EV and battery makers announced cumulative post-IRA investments of at least USD 52 billion in North American EV supply chains of which 50%is for battery manufacturing,and about 20%each for battery components and EV manufacturing.Global EV Outlook 2023 Electri

75、c Vehicles Initiative Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|13 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Electric Vehicles Initiative The Electric Vehicles Initiative(EVI)is a multi-governmental policy forum established in 2010 under the Clean Energy Ministerial(CEM).Recognising the opportunities offered by EVs,the EVI is de

76、dicated to accelerating the adoption of EVs worldwide.To do so,it strives to better understand the policy challenges related to electric mobility,to help governments address them and to serve as a platform for knowledge-sharing among government policy makers.The EVI also facilitates exchanges betwee

77、n government policy makers and a variety of other partners on topics important for the transition to electric mobility,such as charging infrastructure and grid integration as well as EV battery supply chains.In 2022,Zero Emission Government Fleet Declaration was launched within the EVI,a strong comm

78、itment among government to move towards 100%zero emission vehicles in public procurement.The International Energy Agency serves as the co-ordinator of the initiative.Governments that have been active in the EVI in the 2022-23 period include Canada,Chile,Peoples Republic of China(hereafter“China”),Fi

79、nland,France,Germany,India,Japan,the Netherlands,New Zealand,Norway,Poland,Portugal,Sweden,United Kingdom and United States.Canada,China and the United States are the co-leads of the initiative.The Global EV Outlook annual series is the flagship publication of the EVI.It is dedicated to tracking and

80、 monitoring the progress of electric mobility worldwide and to informing policy makers on how to best accelerate electrification of the road transport sector.Global EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|14 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Trends and developments

81、in EV markets Electric light-duty vehicles Electric car sales continue to increase,led by China Electric car sales1 saw another record year in 2022,despite supply chain disruptions,macro-economic and geopolitical uncertainty,and high commodity and energy prices.The growth in electric car sales took

82、place in the context of globally contracting car markets:total car sales in 2022 dipped by 3%relative to 2021.Electric car sales including battery electric vehicles(BEVs)and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles(PHEVs)exceeded 10 million last year,up 55%relative to 2021.2 This figure 10 million EV sales

83、worldwide exceeds the total number of cars sold across the entire European Union(about 9.5 million vehicles)and is nearly half of the total number of cars sold in China in 2022.In the course of just five years,from 2017 to 2022,EV sales jumped from around 1 million to more than 10 million.It previou

84、sly took five years from 2012 to 2017 for EV sales to grow from 100 000 to 1 million,underscoring the exponential nature of EV sales growth.The share of electric cars in total car sales jumped from 9%in 2021 to 14%in 2022,more than 10 times their share in 2017.Over 26 million electric cars were on t

85、he road in 2022,up 60%relative to 2021 and more than 5 times the stock in 2018 Increasing sales pushed the total number of electric cars on the worlds roads to 26 million,up 60%relative to 2021,with BEVs accounting for over 70%of total annual growth,as in previous years.As a result,about 70%of the g

86、lobal stock of electric cars in 2022 were BEVs.The increase in sales from 2021 to 2022 was just as high as from 2020 to 2021 in absolute terms up 3.5 million but relative growth was lower(sales doubled from 2020 to 2021).The exceptional boom in 2021 may be explained by EV markets catching up in the

87、wake of the coronavirus 1 The term sales,as used in this report,represents an estimate of the number of new vehicles hitting the roads.Where possible,data on new vehicle registrations is used.In some cases,however,only data on retail sales(such as sales from a dealership)are available.See Box 1.2 fo

88、r further details.The term car is used to represent passenger light-duty vehicles and includes cars of different sizes,sports utility-vehicles and light trucks.2 Unless otherwise specified,the term electric vehicle is used to refer to both battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles but do

89、es not include fuel cell electric vehicles.For a brief description of the trends related to fuel cell electric vehicles,see Box 1.3.Global EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|15 IEA.CC BY 4.0.(Covid-19)pandemic.Seen in comparison to recent ye

90、ars,the annual growth rate for electric car sales in 2022 was similar to the average rate over 2015-2018,and the annual growth rate for the global stock of electric cars in 2022 was similar to that of 2021 and over the 2015-2018 period,showing a robust recovery of EV market expansion to pre-pandemic

91、 pace.Figure 1.1 Global electric car stock in selected regions,2010-2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:BEV=battery electric vehicle;PHEV=plug-in hybrid electric vehicle.Electric car stock in this figure refers to passenger light-duty vehicles.In“Europe”,European Union countries,Norway,and the United Kingdom a

92、ccount for over 95%of the EV stock in 2022;the total also includes Iceland,Israel,Switzerland and Trkiye.Main markets in“Other”include Australia,Brazil,Canada,Chile,Mexico,India,Indonesia,Japan,Malaysia,New Zealand,South Africa,Korea and Thailand.The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and u

93、nder the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities.The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights,East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.Source:IEA analysis based on country submissions,ACEA,EAFO

94、,EV Volumes and Marklines.Over 26 million electric cars were on the road in 2022,up 60%relative to 2021 and more than five times the stock in 2018.Half of the worlds electric cars are in China The increase in electric car sales varied across regions and powertrains,but remains dominated by the Peopl

95、es Republic of China(hereafter“China”).In 2022,BEV sales in China increased by 60%relative to 2021 to reach 4.4 million,and PHEV sales nearly tripled to 1.5 million.The faster growth in PHEV sales relative to BEVs warrants further examination in the coming years,as PHEV sales still remain lower over

96、all and could be catching up on the post-Covid-19 boom only now;BEV sales in China tripled from 2020 to 2021 after moderate growth over 2018-2020.Electric car sales increased even while total car sales dipped by 3%in 2022 relative to 2021.0510152025302010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212

97、022MillionChina BEVChina PHEVEurope BEVEurope PHEVUnited States BEVUnited States PHEVOther BEVOther PHEVGlobal EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|16 IEA.CC BY 4.0.China accounted for nearly 60%of all new electric car registrations globally.F

98、or the first time in 2022,China accounted for more than 50%of all the electric cars on the worlds roads,a total of 13.8 million.This strong growth results from more than a decade of sustained policy support for early adopters,including an extension of purchase incentives initially planned for phase-

99、out in 2020 to the end of 2022 due to Covid-19,in addition to non-financial support such as rapid roll-out of charging infrastructure and stringent registration policies for non-electric cars.In 2022,the share of electric cars in total domestic car sales reached 29%in China,up from 16%in 2021 and un

100、der 6%between 2018 and 2020.China has therefore achieved its 2025 national target of a 20%sales share for so-called new energy vehicles(NEVs)3 well in advance.All indicators point to further growth:although the national NEV sales target is yet to be updated by Chinas Ministry of Industry and Informa

101、tion Technology(MIIT),which is responsible for the automotive industry,the objective of greater road transport electrification is re-affirmed in multiple strategy documents.China aims to reach a 50%sales share by 2030 in so-called“key air pollution control regions”,and 40%across the country by 2030

102、to support the national action plan for carbon peaking.If recent market trends continue,Chinas 2030 targets may also be reached ahead of time.Provincial governments are also supporting adoption of NEVs,with 18 provinces to date having set NEV targets.Support at the regional level in China has also h

103、elped to advance some of the worlds largest EV makers.Shenzhen-based BYD has supplied most of the citys electric buses and taxis,and its leading position is also reflected in Shenzhens ambition of reaching a 60%NEV sales share by 2025.Guangzhou,which has a 50%NEV sales share by 2025 target,facilitat

104、ed the expansion of Xpeng Motors to become one of the national EV frontrunners.3 NEVs(China)include BEVs,PHEVs and fuel cell electric vehicles.Global EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|17 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 1.2 Monthly new electric car reg

105、istrations in China,2020-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:BEV=battery electric vehicle;PHEV=plug-in hybrid electric vehicle.Percentage labels in 2022-2023 refer to year-on-year growth rates relative to the same month in the previous year.Source:IEA analysis based on EV Volumes.Electric car sales in China hav

106、e been steadily increasing since 2020,but future trends will warrant further examination given that purchase incentives ended in 2022.Whether Chinas electric car sales share will remain significantly above the 20%target in 2023 remains uncertain,as sales may have been especially high in anticipation

107、 of incentives being phased out at the end of 2022.Sales in January 2023 plunged,and while this is in part due to the timing of the Chinese New Year,they were nearly 10%lower than sales in January 2022.However,electric car sales caught up in February and March 2023,standing nearly 60%above sales in

108、February 2022 and more than 25%above sales in March 2022,thereby bringing sales in the first quarter of 2023 more than 20%higher than in the first quarter of 2022.Growth remained steady in Europe despite disruptions In Europe,4 electric car sales increased by more than 15%in 2022 relative to 2021 to

109、 reach 2.7 million.Sales grew more quickly in previous years:annual growth stood at more than 65%in 2021 and averaged 40%over 2017-2019.In 2022,BEV sales rose by 30%relative to 2021(compared to 65%growth in 2021 relative to 2020)while PHEV sales dipped by around 3%.Europe accounted for 10%of global

110、growth in new electric car sales.Despite slower growth in 2022,electric car 4 Europe includes European Union countries,Iceland,Israel,Norway,Switzerland,Trkiye,and the United Kingdom.116%175%117%61%107%129%111%92%78%75%51%32%-8%59%22%0 200 400 600 800OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanF

111、ebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar2020202120222023ThousandBEVPHEVGlobal EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|18 IEA.CC BY 4.0.sales are still increasing in Europe in the context of continued contraction in car markets:total car sales in

112、 Europe dipped by 3%in 2022 relative to 2021.The slowdown seen in Europe relative to previous years was,in part,a reflection of the exceptional growth in electric car sales that took place in 2020 and 2021 in the European Union,as manufacturers quickly adjusted corporate strategy to comply with the

113、CO2 emission standards passed in 2019.These standards covered the 2020-2024 period,with EU-wide emission targets becoming stricter only from 2025 and 2030 onwards.High energy prices in 2022 had a mixed impact on the competitiveness of EVs relative to internal combustion engine(ICE)cars.Gasoline and

114、diesel prices for ICE cars spiked,but residential electricity tariffs(with relevance for charging)also increased in some cases.Higher electricity and gas prices also increased manufacturing costs for both ICE and EV cars,with some carmakers arguing that high energy prices could restrict future inves

115、tment for new battery manufacturing capacity.Europe remained the worlds second largest market for electric cars after China in 2022,accounting for 25%of all electric car sales and 30%of the global stock.The sales share of electric cars reached 21%,up from 18%in 2021,10%in 2020 and under 3%prior to 2

116、019.European countries continued to rank highly for the sales share of electric cars,led by Norway at 88%,Sweden at 54%,the Netherlands at 35%,Germany at 31%,the United Kingdom at 23%and France at 21%in 2022.In volume terms,Germany is the biggest market in Europe with sales of 830 000 in 2022,follow

117、ed by the United Kingdom with 370 000 and France with 330 000.Sales also exceeded 80 000 in Spain.The share of electric cars in total car sales has increased tenfold in Germany since before the Covid-19 pandemic,which can in part be explained by increasing support post-pandemic,such as purchase ince

118、ntives through the Umweltbonus,and a frontloading of sales in 2022 in expectation of subsidies being further reduced from 2023 onwards.However,in Italy,electric car sales decreased from 140 000 in 2021 to 115 000 in 2022,and they also decreased or stagnated in Austria,Denmark and Finland.Global EV O

119、utlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|19 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 1.3 Electric car registrations and sales share in selected countries and regions,2018-2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:BEV=battery electric vehicle;PHEV=plug-in hybrid electric vehicle.Passenger

120、 light-duty vehicles only.Major markets at the top.Other countries(middle,bottom)ordered by the share of electric car sales in total car sales.Y-axes do not have the same scale to improve readability.Source:IEA analysis based on country submissions,ACEA,EAFO,EV Volumes and Marklines.Electric car sal

121、es exceeded 10 million in 2022,up 55%relative to 2021.Sales in China increased by 80%and accounted for 60%of global growth.Growth in Europe remained high(up 15%)and accelerated in the United States(up 55%).Sales are expected to continue increasing in Europe,especially following recent policy develop

122、ments under the Fit for 55 package.New rules set stricter CO2 emission standards for 2030-2034 and target a 100%reduction in CO2 emissions for new cars and vans from 2035 relative to 2021 levels.In the nearer term,an 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0 2 4 6 8 10 12182022182022182022182022WorldChinaEuropeUnited

123、 StatesMillion0%25%50%75%100%0 250 500 7501 000182022182022182022182022NorwaySwedenNetherlandsGermanyThousand0%10%20%30%40%0 100 200 300 400182022 182022 182022 182022 182022United KingdomFranceCanadaSouth KoreaJapanThousandBEVPHEVSales share(right)Global EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in E

124、V markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|20 IEA.CC BY 4.0.incentive mechanism operating between 2025 and 2029 will reward manufacturers that achieve a 25%car sales share of zero-and low-emission cars(17%for vans).In the first two months of 2023,battery electric car sales were already up by

125、over 30%year-on-year,while overall car sales increased by just over 10%year-on-year.The United States confirms return to growth In the United States,electric car sales increased 55%in 2022 relative to 2021,led by BEVs.Sales of BEVs increased by 70%,reaching nearly 800 000 and confirming a second con

126、secutive year of strong growth after the 2019-2020 dip.Sales of PHEVs also grew,albeit by only 15%.The increase in electric car sales was particularly high in the United States,considering that total car sales dropped by 8%in 2022 relative to 2021,a much sharper decrease than the global average(minu

127、s 3%).Overall,the United States accounted for 10%of the global growth in sales.The total stock of electric cars reached 3 million,up 40%relative to 2021 and accounting for 10%of the global total.The share of electric cars in total car sales reached nearly 8%,up from just above 5%in 2021 and around 2

128、%between 2018 and 2020.A number of factors are helping to increase sales in the United States.A greater number of available models,beyond those offered by Tesla,the historic leader,helped to close the supply gap.Given that major companies like Tesla and General Motors had already reached their subsi

129、dy cap under US support in previous years,5 new models from other companies being available means that more consumers can benefit from purchase incentives,which can be as high as USD 7 500.Awareness is increasing as government and companies lean towards electrification:in 2022,a quarter of Americans

130、 expect that their next car will be electric,according to the American Automobile Association.Although charging infrastructure and driving range have improved over the years,they remain major concerns for US drivers given the typically long travel distances and lower popularity and limited availabil

131、ity of alternatives such as rail.However,in 2021 the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law strengthened support for EV charging,allocating USD 5 billion in total funding over the 2022-2026 period through the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Formula Program,as well as USD 2.5 billion in competitive g

132、rants over the same period through the Charging and Fueling Infrastructure Discretionary Grant Program.5 Manufacturer caps were still in place for sales taking place in 2022,with models by carmakers having sold over 200 000 EVs losing eligibility for the purchase incentive,even if they were manufact

133、ured in North America following requirements under the IRA.Caps were removed starting from 2023.Global EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|21 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 1.4 Monthly new electric car registrations in the United States,2020-2023 IEA.C

134、C BY 4.0.Notes:BEV=battery electric vehicle;PHEV=plug-in hybrid electric vehicle;“IRA”refers to the Inflation Reduction Act.Percentage labels in 2022-2023 refer to year-on-year growth rates relative to the same month in the previous year.Source:IEA analysis based on EV Volumes.Monthly sales of elect

135、ric cars have been steadily increasing in the United States,with further growth expected in 2023 as a result of strengthened policy support.The acceleration in sales growth could continue in 2023 and beyond thanks to recent new policy support(see Prospects for electric vehicle deployment).The Inflat

136、ion Reduction Act(IRA)has triggered a rush by global electromobility companies to expand US manufacturing operations.Between August 2022 and March 2023,major EV and battery makers announced cumulative post-IRA investments of USD 52 billion in North American EV supply chains,of which 50%is for batter

137、y manufacturing,and about 20%each for battery components and EV manufacturing.Overall,company announcements including tentative commitments for US investments for future battery and EV production add up to around USD 75-108 billion.As an example,Tesla plans to relocate its Berlin-based lithium-ion b

138、attery gigafactory to Texas,where it will work in partnership with Chinas CATL,and to manufacture next-generation EVs in Mexico.Ford also announced a deal with CATL for a battery plant in Michigan,and plans to increase electric car manufacturing sixfold by the end of 2023 relative to 2022,at 600 000

139、 vehicles per year,scaling up to 2 million by 2026.BMW is seeking to expand EV manufacturing at its plant in South Carolina following the IRA.Volkswagen chose Canada for its first battery plant outside Europe,which will begin operations in 2027,and is also investing USD 2 billion in its plant in Sou

140、th Carolina.While these investments can be expected to lead to high growth in the years to come,the impact may only fully be seen from 2024 onwards as plants come online.97%68%42%62%38%19%47%50%34%69%65%45%112%76%22%0 25 50 75 100 125OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJul

141、AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMar2020202120222023ThousandBEVPHEVIRAGlobal EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|22 IEA.CC BY 4.0.In the immediate term,the IRA has constrained eligibility requirements for purchase incentives,as vehicles need to be produc

142、ed in North America in order to qualify for a subsidy.However,electric car sales have remained strong since August 2022(Figure 1.4),and the first months of 2023 have been no exception:In the first quarter of 2023,electric car sales increased 60%compared to the same period in 2022,potentially boosted

143、 by the January 2023 removal of the subsidy caps for manufacturers,which means models by market leaders can now benefit from purchase incentives.In the longer-term,the list of models eligible for subsidies is expected to expand.Box 1.1 The 2023 outlook for electric cars is bright Early indications f

144、rom first quarter sales of 2023 point to an upbeat market,supported by cost declines as well as strengthened policy support in key markets such as the United States.Globally,our current estimate is therefore for nearly 14 million electric cars to be sold in 2023,building on the more than 2.3 million

145、 already sold in the first quarter of the year.This represents a 35%increase in electric car sales in 2023 compared to 2022 and would bring the global electric sales share to around 18%,up from 14%in 2022.Electric car sales,2010-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:2023 sales(“2023E”)are estimated based on marke

146、t trends through the first quarter of 2023.Source:IEA analysis based on EV Volumes.Electric car sales in the first three months of 2023 have shown strong signs of growth compared to the same period in 2022.In the United States,more than 320 000 electric cars were sold in the first quarter of 2023,60

147、%more than over the same period in 2022.Our current expectation is for this growth to be sustained throughout the year,with electric car sales reaching over 1.5 million in 2023,bringing the electric car sales share in the United States up to around 12%in 2023.02468101214162010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20

148、15 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023EMillionChinaEuropeUnited StatesOtherGlobal EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|23 IEA.CC BY 4.0.In China,electric car sales were off to a rough start in 2023,with January sales being 8%lower than in

149、January 2022.The latest available data suggests a quick recovery:over the entire first quarter of 2023,electric car sales in China were more than 20%higher than in the first quarter of 2022,with more than 1.3 million electric cars being registered.For the remainder of 2023,we expect the generally fa

150、vourable cost structure of electric cars to outweigh the effects of the phase-out of the NEV subsidy.As a result,our current expectation is for electric car sales in China to be more than 30%higher than in 2022 and reach around 8 million by the end of 2023,reaching a sales share of over 35%(from 29%

151、in 2022).Based on recent trends and tightening CO2 targets not going into effect until 2025,the growth of electric car sales in Europe is expected to be the lowest of the three largest markets.In the first quarter of 2023,electric car sales in Europe increased by around 10%compared to the same perio

152、d in 2022.For the full year,we currently expect electric car sales to increase by over 25%,with one-in-four cars sold in Europe being electric.Outside of the major EV markets,electric car sales are expected to reach around 900 000 in 2023 50%higher than in 2022.Electric car sales in India in the fir

153、st quarter of 2023 are already double what they were in the same period in 2022.In India and across all regions outside the three major EV markets,electric car sales are expected to represent 2-3%of car sales in 2023,a relatively small yet growing share.There are,of course,downside risks to the 2023

154、 outlook:a sluggish global economy and the phase-out of subsidies for NEVs in China could reduce 2023 growth in global electric car sales.On the upside,new markets may open up more quickly than anticipated,as persistent high oil prices make the case for EVs stronger in an increasing number of settin

155、gs.And new policy developments,such as the April 2023 proposal from the US Environmental Protection Agency(EPA)to strengthen GHG emissions standards for cars,may send signals that boost sales even before going into effect.The number of electric car models rises,especially for large cars and SUVs,at

156、the same time as it decreases for conventional cars The race to electrification is increasing the number of electric car models available on the market.In 2022,the number of available options reached 500,up from below 450 in 2021 and more than doubling relative to 2018-2019.As in previous years,Chin

157、a has the broadest portfolio with nearly 300 available models,double the number available in 2018-2019,prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.This remains nearly twice as many as in Norway,the Netherlands,Germany,Sweden,France and the United Kingdom,which all have around 150 models available,more than Globa

158、l EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|24 IEA.CC BY 4.0.three times as many as before the pandemic.In the United States,there were fewer than 100 models available in 2022,but twice as many as before the pandemic;and 30 or fewer were available

159、in Canada,Japan and Korea.Figure 1.5 Car model availability by powertrain,2010-2022(left),and breakdown of available cars by powertrain and segment in 2022(right)IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:BEV=battery electric vehicle;PHEV=plug-in hybrid vehicle;ICE=internal combustion engine;SUV=sports utility vehicle;USA

160、=United States.Analysis based on models for which there was at least one new registration in a given year;a model on sale but never sold is not counted,and as such actual model availability may be underestimated.In the chart on the right-hand side,distribution is based on the number of available mod

161、els,not sales-weighted.Small cars include A and B segments.Medium cars include C and D segments.Crossovers are a type of sports utility vehicle(SUV)built on a passenger car platform.Large cars include E and F segments and multi-purpose vehicles.Source:IEA analysis based on Marklines.The number of av

162、ailable electric car models reached 500 in 2022 but remains far below the number of ICE options.Large cars and SUVs still account for over half of available BEVs.The 2022 trend reflects the increasing maturity of EV markets and demonstrates that carmakers are responding to increasing consumer demand

163、 for electric cars.However,the number of electric car models available remains much lower than that of conventional ICE cars,which has remained above 1 250 since 2010 and peaked at 1 500 in the middle of the past decade.In recent years,the number of ICE models sold has been steadily decreasing,at a

164、compound annual growth rate of minus 2%over the 2016-2022 period,reaching about 1 300 models in 2022.This dip varies across major car markets and is most pronounced in China,where the number of available ICE options was 8%lower in 2022 than in 2016,versus 3-4%lower in the United States and Europe ov

165、er the same period.This couldresult from contracting car markets and a progressive shift towards EVs among major carmakers.Looking forward,the total number of ICE models available could remain stable,while the number of new models shrinks,if carmakers focus on electrification and keep selling existi

166、ng ICE options rather than increasing budgets to develop new models.0 250 500 7501 0001 2501 5001 75020102013201620192022Available modelsGlobal availability over timeBEVPHEVICE0%20%40%60%80%100%WorldChinaEuropeUSAWorldBEV types in 2022Small carMedium carCrossoverLarge carSUVICEGlobal EV Outlook 2023

167、 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|25 IEA.CC BY 4.0.In contrast to ICE models,EV model availability has been growing quickly,at a compound annual growth rate of 30%over the 2016-2022 period.Such growth is to be expected in a nascent market with a large num

168、ber of new entrants bringing innovative products to the market,and as incumbents diversify their portfolios.Growth has been slightly lower in recent years:the annual growth rate stood at around 25%in 2021 and 15%in 2022.In the future,the number of models can be expected to continue to increase quick

169、ly,as major carmakers expand their EV portfolios and new entrants strengthen their positions,particularly in emerging markets and developing economies(EMDEs).The historic number of ICE models available on the market suggests that the current number of EV options could double,at least,before stabilis

170、ing.Figure 1.6 Electric car model availability in selected countries by size,2018-2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:NL=the Netherlands;UK=United Kingdom;USA=United States;SUV=sports utility vehicle.Includes battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.Countries are ordered by the number of

171、available models in 2022.Analysis based on models for which there was at least one new registration in a given year;a model on sale but never sold is not counted,and as such actual model availability may be underestimated.Source:IEA analysis based on Marklines.In 2022,7 countries had around 150 EV m

172、odels or more available for sale,up from 50 in 2018.The number of large models is increasing more quickly than that of small models.SUVs and large car models dominate both EV and ICE markets A major concern for global car markets both EV and ICE is the overwhelming dominance of SUVs and large models

173、 among available options.Carmakers are able to generate higher revenues from such models,given higher profit margins,which can cover some of the investments made in developing electric options.In certain cases,such as in the United States,larger vehicles can also benefit from less stringent fuel eco

174、nomy standards,hence creating an incentive for carmakers to slightly increase the vehicle size of a car for it to qualify as a light truck.However,large models are more expensive,which poses significant affordability issues across the board,and all the more so in EMDEs.Large models also have 0 50 10

175、0 150 200 250 30018221822182218221822182218221822182218221822ChinaNorwayNLGermany SwedenFranceUKUSACanadaJapanKoreaAvailable modelsSUVLargeCrossoverMediumSmallGlobal EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|26 IEA.CC BY 4.0.implications for sustai

176、nability and supply chains,being equipped with larger batteries that require more critical minerals.In 2022,the sales-weighted average battery size of small battery electric cars ranged from 25 kWh in China to 35 kWh across France,Germany and the United Kingdom,and about 60 kWh in the United States.

177、In comparison,the average for battery electric SUVs was around 70-75 kWh in these countries,and within the 75-90 kWh range for large car models.Transitioning from ICE to electric is a priority for achieving net zero emissions targets,regardless of vehicle size,but mitigating the impacts of higher ba

178、ttery sizes will also be important.In France,Germany and the United Kingdom in 2022,the sales-weighted average weight of a battery electric SUV was 1.5 times higher than the average small battery electric car,requiring greater amounts of steel,aluminium and plastic;the battery in the SUV was twice a

179、s large,requiring about 75%more critical minerals.The CO2 emissions associated with materials processing,manufacturing and assembly can be estimated at more than 70%higher as a result.At the same time,in 2022,electric SUVs resulted in the displacement of over 150 000 barrels per day of oil consumpti

180、on and avoided the associated tailpipe emissions that would have been generated through burning the fuel in combustion engines.Although electric SUVs represented roughly 35%of all electric passenger light-duty vehicles(PLDVs)in 2022,their share of oil displacement was even higher(about 40%),as SUVs

181、tend to be driven more than smaller cars.Of course,smaller vehicles generally require less energy to operate and less materials to build,but electric SUVs certainly remain favourable to ICE vehicles.In 2022,ICE SUVs emitted more than 1 Gt CO2,far greater than the 80 Mt net emissions reductions from

182、the electric vehicle fleet that year.While total car sales decreased by 0.5%in 2022,SUV sales increased by 3%relative to 2021,accounting for about 45%of total car sales,with noticeable growth in the United States,India and Europe.Of the 1 300 available options for ICE cars in 2022,more than 40%were

183、SUVs,compared to fewer than 35%for small and medium cars.The total number of available ICE options went down from 2016 to 2022,but the drop was only for small and medium cars(down 35%)while large cars and SUVs increased(up 10%).Similar trends are observed in EV markets.Around 16%of all SUVs sold wer

184、e electric in 2022,which is above the overall market share of EVs and demonstrates consumer preferences for SUVs regardless of whether they are an ICE vehicle or EV.Nearly 40%of all BEV models available in 2022 were SUVs,which is equivalent to the shares of small and medium car options combined.Othe

185、r large models accounted for more than 15%.Just 3 years before,in 2019,small and medium models accounted for 60%of all available models,and SUVs just 30%.In China and Europe,SUVs and large models accounted for 60%of available BEV options in 2022,on par with the world average.As a comparison,ICE SUVs

186、 and large models accounted for about 70%of available ICE options in these regions,Global EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|27 IEA.CC BY 4.0.suggesting that electric cars currently remain somewhat smaller than their ICE equivalents.Announce

187、ments by some major European carmakers indicate that there could be a greater focus on smaller,more popular models in the years to come.For example,Volkswagen has announced the launch of a compact model for the European market under EUR 25 000 by 2025 and under EUR 20 000 by 2026-2027,as a means to

188、appeal to a broader consumer base.In the United States,over 80%of available BEV options in 2022 were SUVs or large car models,which is greater than the share of ICE SUVs or large models at 70%.Looking ahead,more electric SUVs are to be expected in the United States,should recent policy announcements

189、 on expansion of IRA incentives to more SUVs be implemented.Following the IRA,the US Treasury has been revising vehicle classifications,and in 2023 changed the eligibility criteria for clean vehicle credits relevant to smaller SUVs,which are now eligible if priced under USD 80 000,up from the previo

190、us limit of USD 55 000.Electric cars remain much cheaper in China The growth in electric car sales in China has been underpinned by sustained policy support,but also cheaper retail prices.In 2022,the sales-weighted average price of a small BEV in China was below USD 10 000.This is significantly less

191、 than the prices of small BEVs found in Europe and the United States,where the sales-weighted average price exceeded USD 30 000 in the same year.Figure 1.7 Sales-weighted average retail price(left)and driving range(right)of BEV passenger cars in selected countries,by size,in 2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes

192、:BEV=battery electric vehicle;SUV=sports utility vehicle.Europe is based on data only from France,Germany and the United Kingdom.Retail prices collected in 2022-2023,before subsidy.Source:IEA analysis based on EV Volumes.In 2022,BEV passenger cars remained much cheaper in China,which explains in par

193、t higher adoption rates there.020 00040 00060 00080 000100 000ChinaEuropeUnited StatesUSD(2022)Small carsMedium carsSUVs and crossoversLarge cars0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700ChinaEuropeUnited StateskmGlobal EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE

194、|28 IEA.CC BY 4.0.In China,the best-selling electric cars in 2022 were the Wuling Mini BEV,a small model priced at under USD 6 500,and BYDs Dolphin,another small model,below USD 16 000.Together,these two models accounted for nearly 15%of Chinese BEV passenger car sales,illustrating the appetite for

195、smaller models.To compare,the best-selling small BEVs across France,Germany and the United Kingdom Fiats 500,Peugeots e-208 and Renaults Zoe were all priced above USD 35 000.Few small BEVs were sold in the United States,limited mainly to Chevrolets Bolt and the Mini Cooper BEV,which are priced aroun

196、d USD 30 000.Teslas Y Model was the best-selling BEV passenger car in both the selected European countries(priced at more than USD 65 000)and the United States(more than USD 50 000).6 Chinese carmakers have focused on developing smaller and more affordable models in advance of their international pe

197、ers,cutting down costs following years of tough competition domestically.Hundreds of small EV manufacturers have entered the market since the 2000s,benefitting from a variety of public support schemes,including subsidies and incentives for both consumers and manufacturers.The majority of these firms

198、 went bankrupt due to competition as subsidies were gradually phased out,and the market has since consolidated around a dozen frontrunners,which have succeeded in developing small and cheap electric cars for the Chinese market.Vertical integration of battery and EV supply chains from mineral process

199、ing to battery and EV manufacturing,as well as cheaper labour,manufacturing and access to finance across the board,have also contributed to developing cheaper models.Meanwhile,carmakers in Europe and the United States both early developers such as Tesla and incumbent major manufacturers have mostly

200、focused on larger or more luxurious models to date,hence offering few options affordable for mass-market consumers.However,the small options available in these countries typically offer greater performance than those in China,such as longer driving range.In 2022,the sales-weighted average range of s

201、mall BEVs sold in the United States was nearly 350 km,while in France,Germany and the United Kingdom it was just under 300 km,compared to under 220 km in China.For other segments,the differences are less significant.The broader availability of public charging points in China may,in part,explain why

202、consumers there have been more willing to opt for lower driving ranges than their European or American counterparts.In 2022,Tesla heavily reduced the price of its models on two occasions as competition increased,and many carmakers have also announced cheaper options in the coming years.While these a

203、nnouncements warrant further examination,this trend could indicate that the price gap between small electric cars and incumbent ICE options could progressively close during this decade.6 However,Tesla has decreased car prices several times since the publication of the IRA in the United States,in par

204、t to boost sales as competition gets tougher(see section on corporate strategy and finance).Global EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|29 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Emerging markets see encouraging growth China,Europe and the United States the three major

205、 markets for electric cars accounted for about 95%of global sales in 2022.Emerging market and developing economies(EMDEs)outside China account for only a fraction of the global electric car market.Demand for electric cars has increased in recent years,but sales remain low.While EMDEs often quickly a

206、dopt low-cost emerging technology products(e.g.smartphones,computers and connected devices),electric cars remain typically too expensive for the majority of the population.According to a recent survey,over 50%of Ghanaian respondents would prefer to purchase an EV to an ICE vehicle,but more than half

207、 of those potential consumers would not be willing to spend more than USD 20 000 for an electric car.Lack of access to reliable and affordable charging can be a barrier,as can limited access to EV servicing,maintenance and repair.In most EMDEs,road transport remains largely based on smaller mobility

208、 solutions in urban centres,such as two-and three-wheelers,which have seen much greater success in terms of electrification,as well as shared mobility for regional commutes.Purchasing behaviour is also different,with lower personal car ownership rates and more common purchase of used cars.Looking fo

209、rward,while sales of electric cars both new and used can be expected to increase in EMDEs,it is likely that many countries will continue to rely primarily on two-and three-wheelers(see subsequent section on these vehicles in this report).There was a notable boom in electromobility in 2022 in India,T

210、hailand and Indonesia.Collectively,sales of electric cars in these countries more than tripled relative to 2021,reaching nearly 80 000.Sales in 2022 were 7 times higher than in 2019,before the Covid-19 pandemic.In contrast,sales in other EMDEs were lower.In India,BEV sales reached nearly 50 000 in 2

211、022,4 times more than in 2021,while total car sales increased by just below 15%.Leading domestic manufacturer Tata accounted for over 85%of BEV sales,including through sales of its small BEV Tigor/Tiago,which quadrupled.Indian PHEV sales remained close to zero.Burgeoning electromobility companies ar

212、e now betting on the governments Production Linked Incentive(PLI)scheme with around USD 2 billion in subsidy programmes to ramp up EV and component manufacturing.This scheme has attracted investments totalling USD 8.3 billion.The Indian market,however,currently remains geared towards shared and smal

213、ler mobility.In 2022,25%of electric car purchases in India were by fleet operators,such as for taxis.In early 2023,Tata secured a large order from Uber for 25 000 electric cars.Furthermore,while 55%of three-wheelers sold were electric,fewer than 2%of cars sold were EVs.Ola,Indias top EV company by r

214、evenue,does not yet offer electric cars.Ola is instead concentrating on smaller mobility and aims to double its electric two-wheeler manufacturing capacity to 2 million by the end of 2023,and to reach an annual production capacity of 10 million between 2025 and 2028.The company also seeks to build l

215、ithium-ion battery manufacturing facilities,initially at 5 GWh capacity,scaling up to 100 GWh by 2030.Ola aims to start marketing electric cars for its taxi business by 2024 and to make its fleet of Global EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|

216、30 IEA.CC BY 4.0.taxis fully electric by 2029,while launching its own electric car business for both the high-end and mass markets.It announced over USD 900 million of investments for battery and EV manufacturing in Southern India,and an increase in annual production from 100 000 to 140 000 vehicles

217、.Figure 1.8 Electric car sales by powertrain(columns)and available models by car size(lines)in selected regions,2018-2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:BEV=battery electric vehicle;PHEV=plug-in hybrid electric vehicle.“GEF”refers to the Global Environment Facilitys Global E-Mobility Programme,which was launch

218、ed in 2019 and supports 27 countries in their shift to electromobility.In Africa,GEF includes Burundi,Cte dIvoire,Madagascar,Seychelles,Sierra Leone,South Africa,Togo,and Tunisia.In Asia,GEF includes Bangladesh,India,Indonesia,Maldives,Philippines,and Sri Lanka,but India and Indonesia are shown sepa

219、rately.In Central Europe,West Asia and Middle East,GEF includes Albania,Armenia,Jordan,Ukraine and Uzbekistan.In Latin America and Caribbean,GEF includes Antigua and Barbuda,Chile,Costa Rica,Ecuador,Grenada,Jamaica,Peru and St Lucia.Other countries in Africa include:Algeria,Egypt,Ethiopia,Ghana,Keny

220、a,Mauritius,Morocco,Nigeria,Rwanda,Zambia and Zimbabwe.Other countries in Asia include:Cambodia,Fiji,Laos,Malaysia,Mongolia,Nepal,Pakistan,Thailand and Viet Nam.Other countries in Central Europe,West Asia,Middle East include Azerbaijan,Bahrain,Belarus,Bosnia,Georgia,Iraq,Kazakhstan,Kosovo,Kuwait,Leb

221、anon,Moldova,North Macedonia,Oman,Qatar,Russia,Saudi Arabia,Serbia and the United Arab Emirates.Other countries in Latin America and Caribbean include Argentina,Bahamas,Bolivia,Brazil,Colombia,Dominican Republic,Panama,Paraguay and Uruguay.The number of available models refers to unique models acros

222、s the selected sample of countries.The number of available models includes BEVs and PHEVs.Source:IEA analysis based on EV Volumes.Electric car sales continue to increase in emerging markets with a notable boom in India,but they remain low relative to major markets,and model availability is still an

223、issue.0204060801000 10 20 30 40 50182022182022182022IndiaThailandIndonesiaModels(count)Sales(thousand)0204060801000 10 20 30 40 50182022182022182022182022AfricaAsia(other)Central Europe,WestAsia,Middle EastLatin America andCaribbeanModels(count)Sales(thousand)BEV-GEFPHEV-GEFBEVPHEVSmall and medium m

224、odels(right)Large models(right)Global EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|31 IEA.CC BY 4.0.In Thailand,electric car sales doubled to 21 000,equally distributed between BEVs and PHEVs.The emerging presence of Chinese carmakers has accelerated

225、EV adoption in the country.In 2021,Chinese original equipment manufacturer(OEM)Great Wall Motors launched its Ora Good Cat BEV model in the Thai market,and in 2022 it became the most sold electric car in Thailand,with nearly 4 000 sales.The second and third best-selling cars were also Chinese,manufa

226、ctured by Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation(SAIC),none of which were sold in the country in 2020.Chinese automakers were able to undercut EV prices from foreign competitors also present in the Thai market,such as BMW and Mercedes,thereby appealing to a broader consumer base.In addition,the Th

227、ai government offers various financial incentives for electric cars,including subsidies,excise duty waivers and import tax reductions,which have contributed to making electric cars more attractive.Tesla is planning to enter the Thai market in 2023 along with building Superchargers.In Indonesia,BEV s

228、ales multiplied by more than 14,exceeding 10 000,while PHEV sales remained close to zero.In March 2023,Indonesia announced new incentives to support sales of electric two-wheelers,cars and buses,with the aim of strengthening domestic capacity in EV and battery manufacturing through local component r

229、equirements.The government aims to subsidise the sale of 200 000 electric two-wheelers and 36 000 electric cars in 2023,reaching a sales share of 4%and 5%respectively.The new subsidies could reduce the price of an electric two-wheeler by 25-50%to help compete against ICE equivalents.Indonesia plays

230、an important role in EV and battery supply chains,in particular given its abundant raw mineral resources and status as the worlds largest nickel miner.This has attracted investment from global companies,and Indonesia could become the largest manufacturing hub in the region for batteries and componen

231、ts.Model availability remains an issue in EMDEs,with many of the options on sale heavily geared towards the higher end,such as SUVs,large and luxury models.While the trend for SUVs is global,purchasing power is more limited in EMDEs,making such vehicles largely unaffordable.Across the different regi

232、ons considered in this section of the report,for a total of more than 60 EMDEs,including those which receive support from the Global Environment Facilitys(GEF)Global E-Mobility Programme,there were two to six times more large models available than small ones in 2022.In Africa,the best-selling electr

233、ic car model in 2022 was the Hyundai Kona,a crossover BEV,and there were about as many recorded sales of Porsches large and expensive Taycan BEV as there were of Nissans medium-sized Leaf BEV.There were also eight times more sales of electric SUVs than of the Mini Cooper SE BEV and Renault Zoe BEV c

234、ombined,the two best-selling small electric cars.In India,the best-selling electric car model was Tatas crossover Nexon BEV,with over 32 000 sales,or three times more than the second best-selling model,Tatas Global EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambiti

235、ons PAGE|32 IEA.CC BY 4.0.small Tigor/Tiago BEV.Across all of the EMDEs considered here,sales of electric SUVs reached 45 000,which is more than the sales of small(23 000)and medium(16 000)electric cars combined.In Costa Rica,the leading country in Latin America in terms of BEV sales share,only 4 mo

236、dels in the top 20 were not SUVs,and nearly a third were luxury models.The future of mass-market electrification in EMDEs relies on the development of smaller,more affordable electric cars,alongside two-and three-wheelers.Box 1.2 On the distinction between vehicle registrations and vehicle sales An

237、important distinction for assessing the evolution of vehicle markets is the difference between registrations and sales.New registrations represent the number of vehicles that have been officially registered for the first time with the relevant government ministry or insurance agency,including domest

238、ically produced and imported vehicles.Sales can either refer to vehicles sold by dealers or agencies(retail sales),or to vehicles sold to dealers by vehicle manufacturers(factory shipments,i.e.including exports).The choice of metric can make a significant difference when analysing vehicle markets.Fo

239、r consistency in accounting across all countries,and to avoid double-counting at a global level,in this report vehicle market sizes are based on new vehicle registrations,where available,and retail sales otherwise,not on factory shipments.Chinas vehicle market trends in 2022 are a good illustration

240、of why this matters.In 2022,an increase of 7 to 10%in factory shipments(reported as sales)for the Chinese passenger car market was reported,while insurance registrations showed a stagnation of the domestic market in the same year.This increase was observed in data from the China Association of Autom

241、obile Manufacturers(CAAM),which is the official data source for Chinas car industry.CAAM data is collected from car manufacturers and represents factory shipments.Another widely referenced source is the China Passenger Car Association(CPCA),a non-governmental organisation that provides wholesale,ret

242、ail sales and exports for passenger cars,but is not qualified to provide national statistics,and it does not cover all OEMs,whereas CAAM does.The China Automotive Technology and Research Center(CATARC)is a state-owned think tank,and collects car production numbers from vehicle identification numbers

243、 and car sales numbers from vehicle insurance registrations.In China,vehicle insurance is registered for the vehicle itself and not for the individual driver,and is therefore useful for tracking the number of vehicles on the road,including imports.The main differences between CATARC data and the oth

244、er sources stem from exports and military or other cars that do not get registered,and inventory stocks of vehicle manufacturers.In 2022 the total exports of passenger cars increased rapidly,making the differences between these data sources more apparent.In 2022 the export of Global EV Outlook 2023

245、Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|33 IEA.CC BY 4.0.passenger vehicles increased by almost 60%,exceeding 2.5 million,while the imports of passenger vehicles decreased by almost 20%(950 000 to 770 000).Similar discrepancies between factory shipments and insu

246、rance registrations are apparent in the Chinese bus and truck(commercial vehicle)market.In both 2021 and 2022,total volumes of factory shipments were substantially higher than insurance registrations,implying net export shares of commercial vehicles of about 9%in 2021 and more than 13%in 2022.Number

247、 of passenger car(top)and commercial vehicle(bottom)sales and registrations in China reported by various sources,2020-2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.*Insurance registrations of commercial vehicles from EV100 and from EVI member country data submissions.Note:CAAM=China Association of Automobile Manufacturers;CPC

248、A=China Passenger Car Association;NEV=new energy vehicle.Sources:IEA analysis based on sales data from CAAM and CPCA and insurance registrations of new passenger vehicles from Dongchedi.CAAM:Includes exports,exclude imports(CAAM,2023),CPCA:Excludes exports and imports(CPCA,2023).Sales of electric li

249、ght commercial vehicles continue to increase,catching up with electric car sales Electric light commercial vehicle(LCV)sales worldwide nearly doubled in 2022 relative to 2021 to more than 310 000 vehicles,even as overall LCV sales declined by more than 10%(Figure 1.9).At a global level,the electric

250、LCV sales share is 01 0002 0003 0004 0005 0006 000202020212022202020212022*CAAMInsurance registrationsBuses and trucks thousandExported NEVsExported non-NEVsNEVsnon-NEVsNEVs+non-NEVs05 00010 00015 00020 00025 000202020212022202020212022202020212022CAAMCPCAInsurance registrationsPassenger cars thousa

251、ndGlobal EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|34 IEA.CC BY 4.0.3.6%,about one-quarter that of passenger cars.Current trends indicate that the electric LCV market is catching up with that of electric cars,suggesting that the gap in terms of EV

252、sales shares could narrow in the future.For the first time in 2022,the increase in the share of electric LCVs outpaced that of electric passenger cars(albeit from a low base).This demonstrates that once a critical tipping point in terms of favourability of total cost of ownership(TCO)has been achiev

253、ed,commercial vehicle purchasers are likely to respond more rapidly to economic fundamentals than private consumers.Commercial vehicle owners typically use their vehicles more intensively,and as they have an imperative to maximise profit,EVs provide an opportunity to considerably reduce operating co

254、sts.The experience of commercial owners can also provide learnings for the private consumers segment:better fleet and charging management could help address concerns over range limitations.The share of PHEVs in LCVs has remained very low;around 98%of both electric LCV sales and stock in 2022 were BE

255、Vs.It is likely that this reflects the economic favourability of the battery electric powertrain as opposed to plug-in hybrids in commercial operations characterised by intensive usage,regularity and predictability(in terms of driving range,geographic extent,and return-to-base for overnight charging

256、),as well as the lower maintenance and service costs of battery electric LCVs.Battery electric LCV adoption may also be spurred on by the continuing expansion of low-and zero-emission zones.Figure 1.9 Electric light commercial vehicle sales and sales shares,2018-2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:BEV=battery

257、electric vehicle;PHEV=plug-in hybrid vehicle;LCV=light commercial vehicle.Electric car sales shares are provided as a point of comparison.Sales of electric LCVs nearly doubled in 2022,reaching 3.5%of total LCV sales,led by Korea,Norway and China.0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0 50 100 150 200 250 300 3501820

258、22182022182022182022WorldChinaEuropeKoreaThousandBEVPHEVElectric LCV sales share(right)Electric car sales share(right)Global EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|35 IEA.CC BY 4.0.In 2022,China led in terms of overall electric LCV sales with ov

259、er 130 000 units sold,and nearly 15%of LCVs sold being electric.7 Subsidies for battery electric and fuel cell trucks and vocational vehicles(including LCVs)have decreased in recent years,but overall zero-emission commercial truck sales have been growing since 2020,even as subsidies per vehicle have

260、 declined,indicating the increasing commercial competitiveness of electric trucks.In terms of market share,Korea continued to lead in 2022 with 27%of LCV sales being electric(36 000 vehicles),but sales growth in 2022 slowed to half its level in the previous year.This may be due to changes to the sub

261、sidy scheme for LCVs and to the repealing in April 2022 of a policy that made obtaining commercial registration permits easier for electric LCVs than ICE models(see Policy developments and corporate strategy).Light commercial EV sales shares also grew substantially in the Nordic countries,with Norwa

262、y reaching 25%,Iceland 16%,and Sweden 13%.In all other key European and North American national markets,shares are lower than 10%,and typically less than the global average of 3.5%,but the rate of growth in market share for electric LCVs was higher than for passenger light-duty vehicles(PLDVs)(albei

263、t from a lower baseline)across most leading EV markets,including the United States,Japan,and the European Union.Electric two-wheeler sales declined in China while global electric three-wheeler sales continued to rise Global electric two-wheeler sales totalled about 9.2 million in 2022,a drop of near

264、ly 18%from 2021(Figure 1.10).This drop is almost entirely attributable to the dip in sales of electric mopeds and motorcycles in China,which fell from 10.2 million in 2021 to under 7.7 million in 2022,even as the overall two-wheeler market there continued to grow.Supply chain challenges stemming fro

265、m Chinas pandemic-related restrictions in 2022 hit the electric two-wheeler market particularly hard,and in spite of growth in sales of premium domestic and imported two-wheelers(e.g.from BMW,Ducati and others),the overall sales share of electric two-wheelers dipped back below 50%.8 Despite the decl

266、ine in sales,China 7 Commercial truck sales in China are reported according to four gross vehicle weight(GVW)bins:less than 1.8 tonnes,1.8-6 tonnes,6-14 tonnes,and greater than 14 tonnes.These are reallocated to categories based on other external data sources to match IEAs harmonised global definiti

267、ons of light commercial vehicles(less than 3.5 tonnes GVW),medium trucks(3.5-15 tonnes),and heavy trucks(15 tonnes GVW and above).8 As with other vehicle types,tracking new two-wheeler registrations(“sales”)in China is difficult,as the official data source,CAAM,tracks factory shipments,and hence rep

268、orts volumes that include exported vehicles.Tracking is particularly difficult in the case of electric two-wheelers,however,as many data sources include pedal-electric bicycles and other small electric mopeds(see,for instance,a recent industry report from Honda).Chinese data sources give vehicle sal

269、es of electric two-wheelers at around 50 million in 2021,and 60 million in 2022,of which about 7.6 million are classified as motorcycles(China Chamber of Commerce for Motorcycles).Some of these attain top speeds of less than 50 km/hour,and so are excluded from the above figures.In India,electric bic

270、ycles and mopeds with a top speed of less than 50 km/hour made up more than 80%of the market in 2021 and 2022.The accounting here includes only vehicles with a minimum top speed of 50 km/hr and that fit the UNECE definition of L1 or L3,based on data provided by MotorcyclesD.Global EV Outlook 2023 Tr

271、ends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|36 IEA.CC BY 4.0.continued to dominate the electric two-wheeler market in terms of size,accounting for nearly 85%of global sales.Electric two-wheelers also lost market share in Viet Nam,despite sales shares of domestically p

272、roduced electric two-wheelers having increased considerably in recent years.In terms of absolute volumes,sales grew in most Asian markets outside China and Viet Nam.Figure 1.10 Electric two-and three-wheeler sales and sales share by region,2016-2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA analysis based on country

273、 submissions and data from MotorcyclesD.China leads global electric two-wheeler sales,despite a 25%drop in 2022.Battery leasing business models and stronger manufacturing boost Indian electric three-wheeler sales.0246810122016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Electric two-wheelers(millions)0%10%20%30%40

274、%50%60%2016201720182019202020212022Electric two-wheelers 0246810122016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Electric three-wheelers(100 000s)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2016201720182019202020212022Electric three-wheelers ChinaViet NamEuropeIndiaDeveloping AsiaLatin AmericaNorth AmericaGlobal EV Outlook 2023 T

275、rends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|37 IEA.CC BY 4.0.India leads on sales of electric three-wheelers thanks to policy support and innovative business models Sales of electric three-wheelers,which play an important role in urban mobility in India for both carg

276、o and passenger services,soared to 425 000 units in 2022.Sales have been strong in India for a number of years,with hundreds of thousands of electric three-wheelers sold every year since 2012,with the exception of 2020,when the Covid-19 pandemic reduced sales volumes to 30%of the previous year.Over

277、half of Indias three-wheeler registrations in 2022 were electric,demonstrating their growing popularity due government incentives and lower lifecycle costs compared with conventional models,as well as higher fuel prices.IEA analysis on the TCO in India suggests that electric three-wheelers are alrea

278、dy 70%cheaper than their gasoline-power ICE equivalents over their lifetime(IEA,forthcoming).Policies including the purchase incentives under FAME II,supply-side incentives under the PLI scheme,tax benefits and Indias Go Electric campaign all contributed to reducing the higher upfront costs(see Poli

279、cy developments and corporate strategy for a detailed discussion of these and other policies).A total of 15 Indian states have already adopted EV policies to promote stronger EV deployment(and many more are drafting them),the majority of which include additional demand incentives.Bulk procurement sc

280、hemes,the emergence of the battery-as-a-service(BaaS)business model and Indias draft battery swapping policy all give further impetus to the rapidly rising sales of electric three-wheelers.China followed India in terms of electric three-wheeler sales,with nearly 350 000 units sold in 2022.Together,C

281、hina and India accounted for nearly 99%of global electric three-wheeler sales.Box 1.3 Korea continues to lead fuel cell electric car growth In 2022,the stock of fuel cell electric vehicles(FCEVs)increased 40%compared to 2021,reaching over 72 000 vehicles globally.About 80%of the FCEVs are cars,10%tr

282、ucks and almost 10%buses.In 2022,the fuel cell truck segment grew at a faster rate than cars and buses,increasing 60%.Korea is now home to over half of all fuel cell cars globally.Two-thirds of the additional 15 000 fuel cell cars that hit the road in 2022 were in Korea.This can be attributed in par

283、t to a policy landscape that supports FCEV production and sales,which has also led to Hyundai being the top fuel cell automaker.The United States holds the second largest FCEV stock,with over 15 000 FCEVs.Most of these are fuel cell cars,with a little more than 200 fuel cell buses.In 2022,Global EV

284、Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|38 IEA.CC BY 4.0.the stock of FCEVs in the United States increased more than 20%,which is much less than the 60%growth in China,which has the third largest FCEV stock.Historically,China has dominated the heavy

285、-duty fuel cell vehicle segments(trucks and buses).This is still the case in 2022,with China home to over 95%of the global fuel cell truck fleet and almost 85%of the global fuel cell bus fleet.However,in 2022,China added over 200 fuel cell cars to its FCEV fleet after years of only deploying buses a

286、nd trucks.For further details on the status of FCEVs and other hydrogen-based applications,see the IEA Global Hydrogen Review report series.Fuel cell electric vehicle and hydrogen refuelling station stock by region,2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:FCEVs=fuel cell electric vehicles;HRS=hydrogen refuelling st

287、ation;PLDVs=passenger light-duty vehicles;LCVs=light commercial vehicles;RoW=rest of the world.Source:IEA analysis based on the data submission of the Advanced Fuel Cells Technology Collaboration Program.Electric heavy-duty vehicles Electric truck and bus sales shares In 2022,nearly 66 000 electric

288、buses and 60 000 medium-and heavy-duty trucks were sold worldwide,representing about 4.5%of all bus sales and 1.2%of truck sales worldwide.China continues to dominate production and sales of electric(and fuel cell)trucks and buses.In 2022,54 000 new electric buses and an estimated 52 000 electric me

289、dium-and heavy-duty trucks9 were sold in China,representing 18%and 4%of total sales in China and about 80%and 85%of global 9 Commercial truck sales in China are reported according to four GVW bins:less than 1.8 tonnes,1.8-6 tonnes,6-14 tonnes,and greater than 14 tonnes.These are reallocated to categ

290、ories based on other external data sources to match IEAs harmonised global definitions of light commercial vehicles(less than 3.5 tonnes GVW),medium trucks(3.5-15 tonnes),and heavy trucks(15 tonnes GVW and above).0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%FCEVsHRSKoreaUnited StatesChinaJapanGermanyRoWShare of

291、 FCEV and HRS stock by region,2022FCEV stock by region and mode,20220 10 20 30 40 50 60 70PLDVsLCVsBusesTrucksThousand72 1001 020 Global EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|39 IEA.CC BY 4.0.sales,respectively.In addition,many of the buses and

292、 trucks being sold in Latin America,North America and Europe are Chinese brands.Figure 1.11 Electric bus and truck registrations and sales share by region,2015-2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA analysis based on country submissions and data from EV100 and vehicle insurance registration data.China contin

293、ues to account for about 80%of global electric bus sales and 85%of electric truck sales,as well as exporting large volumes of both.Within Europe,the sales share for electric buses was highest in Finland,where electric buses made up two-thirds of sales in 2022,Norway and the Netherlands,where they ma

294、de up nearly half of sales,and Denmark,where they made up nearly one-third.Sales shares were also high in Sweden,Switzerland and Israel.Electric trucks sales shares remain low across most major markets.With the exception of China,cumulative electric medium-and heavy-duty truck(“truck”)sales to date

295、number in the hundreds in most countries(just under 2 000 electric trucks were sold across the entire European Union in 2022).Sales shares generally remain well under 1%in medium-and heavy-duty segments,with major shipping logistics companies running demonstrations of electric trucks in regional and

296、 long-haul electric operations.The average declared range of electric trucks produced in China exceeded 300 km,and that of electric buses 400 km.A growing number of electric buses have ranges that enable intercity operations;the vast majority of electric buses in China(and elsewhere)are currently us

297、ed in urban public transit operations,but official statistics show that at least 8%of new energy buses are operating on intercity routes.0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 902016201820202022Sales share(dots)Thousand registrationsOtherUnited StatesEuropeChina0%5%10%15%2

298、0%25%30%0 20 40 60 80 100 1202016201820202022Sales share(dots)Thousand registrationsBusesTrucksGlobal EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|40 IEA.CC BY 4.0.The majority of electric trucks sold in China are box trucks,10 and 90%of electric truc

299、k sales were under 4.5 tonnes in gross vehicle weight(GVW),with the majority of these being between 3.5-4.5 tonnes.Electric truck sales for tractor-trailers and garbage trucks in China have also grown rapidly from a low base.Until the past few years,the production and sales volumes of electric buses

300、 and trucks ebbed and flowed based on subsidies.The central government introduced subsidies totalling nearly CNY 30 billion(Chinese Yuan renminbi)(USD 4.3 billion)in 2016 and 2017,the vast majority of which went to electric buses;BYD buses alone received about CNY 10 billion(USD 1.5 billion).Despite

301、 a progressive reduction in subsidies from 2018 onwards(total subsidies from 2018-2021 were less than CNY 20 billion USD 2.9 billion),electric bus and truck sales began increasing in 2021 and grew again in 2022,a promising sign that they have reached cost and performance metrics that make them incre

302、asingly competitive without government support.Cost reductions are also being driven by market consolidation and economies of scale.Indeed,Chinas commercial electric truck sales(including both LCVs and medium-and heavy-duty trucks see section above on electric LCVs)dipped from a high of nearly 150 0

303、00 in 2017(immediately following the adoption of the subsidy)to a low point in 2020,at 59 000;before rebounding to reach 186 000 total electric truck sales in 2022,despite declining subsidies on a per-vehicle basis in both 2021 and 2022.Zero-emission vehicle model availability expanded in 2022 in th

304、e medium-and heavy-duty truck segments The number of models on offer for zero-emission trucks has continued to expand in 2022,with nearly 840 current and announced medium-and heavy-duty vehicle models in the Global Drive to Zero Emission Technology Inventory(ZETI)database.The trend of new model deve

305、lopment has shifted from buses to medium-and heavy-duty trucks.Of the 220 models that became available in 2022,more than half were either medium-duty trucks(over 60 models)or heavy-duty trucks(over 50 models),reflecting the fact that truck manufacturers are increasingly gaining confidence in supplyi

306、ng larger,heavier zero-emission models with greater payloads.The majority(over 90%)of the already available medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks models are battery electric;12 models of fuel cell heavy-duty trucks are currently available and another 8 are due to become available in 2023-24.Of commercia

307、lly available bus and truck models in 2022,60%(over 500 models)were produced by OEMs headquartered in China.Another 20%(over 170 models)were produced by North American OEMs,and 15%(over 120 models)by European OEMs.10 Box trucks are light commercial and medium-duty chassis cab trucks with an enclosed

308、 box-shaped cargo space in the back.Global EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets PAGE|41 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 1.12 Current and announced zero-emission commercial vehicle models by type,release date and range,2019-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Notes:Although the inventory is continuously updated

309、,this snapshot may not be fully comprehensive due to new model announcements and small manufacturers not yet captured in the inventory.Zero-emission vehicles(ZEVs)include battery electric vehicles(BEVs),plug-in hybrid electric vehicles(PHEVs)and fuel cell electric vehicles(FCEVs).“Other”includes gar

310、bage,bucket,concrete mixer,mobile commercial and street sweeper trucks.The heavy-duty truck and transit bus figures include announced models for 2023-2024.Source:IEA analysis based on the Global Drive to Zero ZETI tool database.Global EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up

311、 with climate ambitions PAGE|42 IEA.CC BY 4.0.China dominates heavy-duty battery production European and North American electric bus and truck makers rely heavily on Asian battery makers.Given their dominance in lithium iron phosphate(LFP)battery chemistries,Chinas CATL produces the vast majority of

312、 batteries for trucks.However,spurred on by industrial policies the European Unions Green Industrial Plan and the United States IRA truck makers have already begun to build or are announcing investments in new production facilities for heavy-duty battery packs(such as Volvos 2.7 GWh plant,which open

313、ed in Sweden in 2022).Truck makers have also entered collaborations with major cell makers,seeking to secure further opportunities for vertical integration.More than 95%of heavy-duty trucks produced in China were equipped with LFP cathode chemistries in 2021.The durability and lower cost of LFP batt

314、eries make them the preferred choice not only because of the high lifetime mileage needed for commercial operations,but also because price is a concern for bus and truck buyers:over half of truck purchases are leases or rely on loans.The battery capacity of currently available commercial and announc

315、ed models included in the ZETI database within a given vehicle type generally correlates with declared vehicle range(Figure 1.12).Table 1 shows how average battery capacity has generally increased across most bus categories from 2019 to 2022.However,no such clear trend is apparent across coaches or

316、truck categories.Average battery capacity in medium-and heavy-duty vehicle models Vehicle Category Average Battery Capacity(kWh)2019 2020 2021 2022 Change 2019-2022 Transit bus 264 322 225 345 31%School bus 155 141 207 137-12%Shuttle bus 104 119 120 150 45%Coach 316 347 233 266-16%Cargo van 69 90 57

317、 60-13%Medium-duty step van-134 155 163 22%*Medium-duty truck 124 139 99 92-26%Heavy-duty truck 293 232 372 311 6%Yard tractor 150 184 160 197 31%*Change from 2020 to 2022 average,as no medium-duty step vans were sold in 2019.Source:IEA analysis based on the Global Drive to Zero ZETI tool database.G

318、lobal EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|43 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Actual vehicle range depends on the loaded vehicle weight,duty cycle,aerodynamics and drivetrain efficiency,as well as environmental factors such as temperature.In addition,as no harm

319、onised test procedure currently exists to measure electric range for medium-and heavy-duty vehicles in any of the major markets where deployment of electric trucks has begun,manufacturers can determine their own methods to declare the electric range of the commercially available and announced models

320、.However,any standardised test procedure would need to consider complicated issues of non-motive energy consumption(e.g.heating ventilation and air conditioning in buses,cooling in refrigerated trucks),as well as the potential for buses and trucks to be used in vehicle-to-grid applications(as has be

321、en demonstrated,for instance,with electric school buses in the United States).In light of such considerations,a first regulatory step could be to mandate that electric medium-and heavy-duty vehicle makers measure and disclose the usable battery energy according to a yet-to-be-developed standardised

322、measurement procedure.Charging infrastructure Public charging points are increasingly necessary to enable wider EV uptake While most of the charging demand is currently met by home charging,publicly accessible chargers are increasingly needed in order to provide the same level of convenience and acc

323、essibility as for refuelling conventional vehicles.In dense urban areas,in particular,where access to home charging is more limited,public charging infrastructure is a key enabler for EV adoption.At the end of 2022,there were 2.7 million public charging points worldwide,more than 900 000 of which we

324、re installed in 2022,about a 55%increase on 2021 stock,and comparable to the pre-pandemic growth rate of 50%between 2015 and 2019.Slow chargers Globally,more than 600 000 public slow charging points11 were installed in 2022,360 000 of which were in China,bringing the stock of slow chargers in the co

325、untry to more than 1 million.At the end of 2022,China was home to more than half of the global stock of public slow chargers.Europe ranks second,with 460 000 total slow chargers in 2022,a 50%increase from the previous year.The Netherlands leads in Europe with 117 000,followed by around 74 000 in Fra

326、nce and 64 000 in Germany.The stock of slow chargers 11 Slow chargers have power ratings less than or equal to 22 kW.Fast chargers are those with a power rating of more than 22 kW and up to 350 kW.“Charging points”and“chargers”are used interchangeably and refer to the individual charging sockets,ref

327、lecting the number of EVs that can charge at the same time.Charging stations”may have multiple charging points.Global EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in EV markets Catching up with climate ambitions PAGE|44 IEA.CC BY 4.0.in the United States increased by 9%in 2022,the lowest growth rate amon

328、g major markets.In Korea,slow charging stock has doubled year-on-year,reaching 184 000 charging points.Fast chargers Publicly accessible fast chargers,especially those located along motorways,enable longer journeys and can address range anxiety,a barrier to EV adoption.Like slow chargers,public fast

329、 chargers also provide charging solutions to consumers who do not have reliable access to private charging,thereby encouraging EV adoption across wider swaths of the population.The number of fast chargers increased by 330 000 globally in 2022,though again the majority(almost 90%)of the growth came f

330、rom China.The deployment of fast charging compensates for the lack of access to home chargers in densely populated cities and supports Chinas goals for rapid EV deployment.China accounts for total of 760 000 fast chargers,but more than 70%of the total public fast charging pile stock is situated in j

331、ust ten provinces.Figure 1.13 Installed publicly accessible light-duty vehicle charging points by power rating and region,2015-2022 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Values shown represent number of charging points.Source:IEA analysis based on country submissions.Installed publicly accessible charging points have

332、increased by around 55%,with accelerated deployment led by China and Europe.In Europe the overall fast charger stock numbered over 70 000 by the end of 2022,an increase of around 55%compared to 2021.The countries with the largest fast charger stock are Germany(over 12 000),France(9 700)and Norway(9

333、000).There is a clear ambition across the European Union to further develop the public charging infrastructure,as indicated by provisional agreement on the proposed 0 400 8001 2001 6002 00020152016201720182019202020212022ChinaEuropeUnited StatesOther countriesThousand0 400 8001 2001 6002 00020152016201720182019202020212022Fast chargersSlow chargersGlobal EV Outlook 2023 Trends and developments in