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1、Space Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionA P R I L 2 0 2 3In collaboration with McKinsey&CompanyContents 2023 World Economic Forum.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including

2、 photocopying and recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.Disclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project,insight area or interaction.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative pr

3、ocess facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum,nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders.Introduction 31 Satellite technology has multiple applications in agriculture 72 Technology i

4、s evolving while costs decline,expanding the customer base 163 Opportunity for industry 27Conclusion 36Contributors 37Endnotes 38Images:Getty Images,UnsplashThis guide is interactiveLook out for this icon for elements that can be interacted withSpace Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Wa

5、ter Security,Improving Climate ActionContents2IntroductionThe value of space technologies in agriculture is becoming more widely recognized,and will gain greater acceptance in the near future.Adoption of space applications has been historically limited by high costs,low resolutions and limited consu

6、mer trust.These barriers are coming down,and applied at full scale,insights from space could address up to 30%of the food gap projected for 2050 by reducing waste,decreasing global freshwater use by 5-10%,lowering agricultural CO2 emissions by up to 50million tonnes,and shrinking grower costs by 5%.

7、These societal benefits will come hand-in-hand with economic returns:food waste reduction could contribute an additional$150-175billion in economic value for producers,1 and a 5%cost reduction for growers represents$7-8billion from input savings alone.2 With such value at stake,the market for space-

8、borne insights in agriculture is projected to nearly double by 2030,reaching almost$1billion.Examples of satellite technology driving value for agriculture are already visible.Growers today are using aerial and satellite insights to reduce herbicide,fertilizer and water use,and governments are emplo

9、ying satellites to address food security,verify conditional subsidies and reduce food waste.Yet,technical and human-driven hurdles remain.Scaling will require cross-industry collaboration,training algorithms with sufficient ground-truth data,and a clearly defined value proposition for end-users with

10、 trusted,actionable insights.Put most simply,the industry still needs to bring together the right data to develop the right insights at the right time for the right people.Will adoption accelerate,or will the hurdles persist?Informed by industry research and conversations with stakeholders across th

11、e agriculture and space industries,this report examines this question.Impact of space-enabled applications in agricultureSpace Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents3F I G U R E 1Satellite applications potential to address challenges in agricul

12、tureWhats at stake?Water availabilityGlobal annual crop production for human consumption is estimated at 4.2 billion tonnes,and must increase by a minimum of 50%,or 2.1 billion tonnes,to meet projected 2050 food demand.Identification of early-stage pests,weeds and diseases via hyperspectral and opti

13、cal imagery shows an ability to prevent crop loss,which today is between 20%and 40%of total production.If applied at scale,up to 0.8 billion tonnes of crops could be salvaged annually.Notes:1.Excluding animal protein.Source:FAO 2020.2.M.van Dijk,T.Morley,M.L.Rau et al.,“A meta-analysis of projected

14、global food demand and population at risk of hunger for the period 2010-2050”,Nature Food,https:/ include weeds,animal pests and disease pathogens;E.Oerke,“Crop losses to pests”,TheJournal of Agricultural Science,Vol.1,No.44(1),pp.31-43(2006);C.Yang,G.Odvody,J.Thomasson,et al.,“Site-specific managem

15、ent of cotton root rot using airborne and high-resolution satellite imagery and variable-rate technology”,Transactions of the ASABE,https:/elibrary.asabe.org/abstract.asp?aid=48999.4.2bnTonnes of crops produced worldwide each year12.1bnAdditional production needed by 20502$0.4bnPotential crop loss p

16、revented via satellite identification of pests3Insights from satellite imagery can improve the food system and contribute to solutions forClimate actionFood insecuritySelect the tabs to discover moreSpace Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents4

17、F I G U R E 1Satellite applications potential to address challenges in agricultureWhats at stake?Water availabilityAgriculture emits 1 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases from fertilizer and pesticide inputs annually.Imagery insights have shown that inputs needed can be cut by 4-6%overall,representin

18、g a reduction of up to 0.5billion tonnes if applied at scale.Notes:4.Includes crop residues,rice cultivation and burning,manure applied to soils,synthetic fertilizers,drained organic soils and fertilizer manufacturing.Source:FAO.5.Includes emissions from fertilizers and pesticides;herbicides exclude

19、d as eliminating weeds decreases emissions from decomposition.3.8bnTonnes of CO2-equivalent emissions from croplands each year41bnEmissions attributable to agriculture inputs50.5bnPotential decrease in emissions when insights inform input applicationInsights from satellite imagery can improve the fo

20、od system and contribute to solutions forFood insecurityClimate actionSelect the tabs to discover moreSpace Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents5F I G U R E 1Satellite applications potential to address challenges in agricultureWhats at stake?

21、28 billion litres of freshwater are withdrawn for agricultural use annually,representing 70%of global use.Satellite-enabled analysis of soil moisture content shows that agricultural water usage can be cut by 5-10%through more efficient irrigation practices,saving 2.8 billion litres of freshwater per

22、 year if applied at scale.Notes:6.Source:World Bank.7.Ibid.8.World Bank,https:/blogs.worldbank.org/digital-development/sky-not-limit-satellites-support-smallholder-farming-part-2.40bnLitres of freshwater withdrawn annually628bnFreshwater withdrawals used for agriculture72.8bnReduction in freshwater

23、use from satellite-informed irrigation improvements8Insights from satellite imagery can improve the food system and contribute to solutions forFood insecurityClimate actionWater availabilitySelect the tabs to discover moreSpace Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving

24、Climate ActionContents6Satellite technology has multiple applications in agriculture1Space Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents7Space-based remote sensors collect and facilitate the exchange of a multitude of data,including weather informatio

25、n and imagery from visible,infrared,thermal and microwave domains,which have significant applications in agriculture.Advanced analytical methods that layer,manipulate and read satellite-collected data are providing value to stakeholders across the agriculture value chain today.Advancements in techno

26、logy are rapidly expanding the satellite sectors ability to monitor and measure events and to exchange information.These improving technologies,coupled with growing supply,will boost adoption over the next decade across five use cases(Figure 2)to generate both economic and societal value:(1)increasi

27、ng the accuracy of yield estimates,(2)optimizing yield via improved decision-making,(3)bolstering sustainable practices,(4)mitigating damage from natural disasters,and(5)enabling precision agriculture.F I G U R E 2Core use cases of space-enabled applications for agricultureIncreased accuracy of yiel

28、d estimates by evaluating relative crop health and modelling impact on yieldValue propositions:Optimized yield via improved decision-making by monitoring crops during the season using satellite spectral data(e.g.indications of disease,weather,pest and crop health)Fields mapped for variable fertiliza

29、tion ratesCrop health issues detected and diagnosed for targeted and timely application of crop protection products such as herbicides,pesticides and fungicidesOptimized irrigation practices based on water mappingStronger sustainable practices with use of remote sensing to analyse emissions,map land

30、 and water use,and monitor regulatory compliancePrediction,verification and mitigation of damage from natural disasters by remote-monitoring conditions before and after droughts,fires and floods Precision agriculture and autonomous vehicles enabled through satellite-based connectivitySpace Applicati

31、ons in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents8Historically,the most common use of satellite data in agriculture is for yield estimation which uses satellite data and analytics to generate accurate and regionally specific estimates of expected crop production,b

32、y crop type.These insights have significant value for governments,non-governmental organizations(NGOs)and crop traders,and can be used to improve livelihoods country-wide and at larger scales.Governments and NGOs are applying yield estimation techniques to quantify and act on food demand gaps(Figure

33、 3)and measure the impact of geopolitical crises on food yield,while crop traders and other stakeholders use the data to better predict crop prices or to align logistics in harvest areas.In the next decade,yield estimation activities will expand in emerging markets,where advancements in technology c

34、ould allow estimates even in multi-crop environments.Such improvements are demonstrating an impact already,enabling initiatives such as the“food balance sheet”of the Common Market for East and Southern Africa(COMESA)to update forecasts five times more frequently,thereby improving the utilization of

35、foodstuff and reducing waste by up to 20%.F I G U R E 3 Tracking regional food balance sheets with digital,space-enabled tools in East and Southern AfricaIn sub-Saharan Africa,food insecurity affects 123 million people.In the past,national governments in food insecure regions struggled to predict to

36、tal food availability,including expected production,stocks and trade of staple crops a“food balance sheet”with manual data compilation often resulting in delayed or incomplete insights.Poor data quality resulted in ad hoc decision-making,hurting farmers,processors and consumers.The Common Market for

37、 East and Southern Africa(COMESA)and the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa(AGRA),a farmer-led organization that seeks to transform African agriculture from a subsistence model to a strong industry,co-led the development of a digital food balance sheet for the region.The aim is to provide the

38、 common data and analytical infrastructure required to predict near real-time food production,stock levels and other relevant information.The need for satellite-driven insightsEnhanced food security and other practical outcomesDigital solutions for food securitySelect the tabs to discover moreSpace

39、Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents9F I G U R E 3 Tracking regional food balance sheets with digital,space-enabled tools in East and Southern AfricaEnhanced food security and other practical outcomesDigital solutions for food securitySatelli

40、te imagery enables bi-weekly,in-season estimates of crop yield and production.Remote-sensing analytics are combined with manual surveys to validate estimates.Combined survey and satellite data create real-time,accurate crop yield forecasts across multiple countries.2311The need for satellite-driven

41、insightsRegional Food Balance Sheet MVP3Historically,the most common use of satellite data in agriculture is for yield estimation which uses satellite data and analytics to generate accurate and regionally specific estimates of expected crop production,by crop type.These insights have significant va

42、lue for governments,non-governmental organizations(NGOs)and crop traders,and can be used to improve livelihoods country-wide and at larger scales.Governments and NGOs are applying yield estimation techniques to quantify and act on food demand gaps(Figure 3)and measure the impact of geopolitical cris

43、es on food yield,while crop traders and other stakeholders use the data to better predict crop prices or to align logistics in harvest areas.In the next decade,yield estimation activities will expand in emerging markets,where advancements in technology could allow estimates even in multi-crop enviro

44、nments.Such improvements are demonstrating an impact already,enabling initiatives such as the“food balance sheet”of the Common Market for East and Southern Africa(COMESA)to update forecasts five times more frequently,thereby improving the utilization of foodstuff and reducing waste by up to 20%.Sele

45、ct the tabs to discover moreSpace Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents10F I G U R E 3 Tracking regional food balance sheets with digital,space-enabled tools in East and Southern AfricaDigital solutions for food securityThe need for satellite-

46、driven insightsEnhanced food security and other practical outcomesReal-time informationDecrease in wasteImproved economicsIncrease in update frequency for yield estimates of staple cropsProjected reduction in food-reserve purchases over five yearsProjected annual reduction in budget spent on food-re

47、serve purchases5x20%1-3%Historically,the most common use of satellite data in agriculture is for yield estimation which uses satellite data and analytics to generate accurate and regionally specific estimates of expected crop production,by crop type.These insights have significant value for governme

48、nts,non-governmental organizations(NGOs)and crop traders,and can be used to improve livelihoods country-wide and at larger scales.Governments and NGOs are applying yield estimation techniques to quantify and act on food demand gaps(Figure 3)and measure the impact of geopolitical crises on food yield

49、,while crop traders and other stakeholders use the data to better predict crop prices or to align logistics in harvest areas.In the next decade,yield estimation activities will expand in emerging markets,where advancements in technology could allow estimates even in multi-crop environments.Such impr

50、ovements are demonstrating an impact already,enabling initiatives such as the“food balance sheet”of the Common Market for East and Southern Africa(COMESA)to update forecasts five times more frequently,thereby improving the utilization of foodstuff and reducing waste by up to 20%.Select the tabs to d

51、iscover moreSpace Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents11Looking forward,yield optimization will drive over 70%of the value from satellite-based insights in agriculture.Yield optimization uses advanced analytics to identify intra-field crop de

52、fects and inform operations,and its adoption is increasing as growers and agriculture input companies strive to maximize profitability and output per acre.Data from satellites can help insight providers identify areas with poor seed emergence early in the season;can identify plant-level indications

53、of disease,weather,pests and crop health mid-season;and can map moisture content across seasons.This data is highly actionable,and can influence operations in real time as growers decide to re-plant seeds,apply well-timed,hyper-localized inputs(e.g.herbicide,insecticide or fungicide;Figure 2),or alt

54、er irrigation plans.Improved operations and yields improve grower profitability by doing more with less,and provide more food per acre planted for the growing population.F I G U R E 4 Yield optimization in action:Eliminating yield risk and decreasing costs for a cotton farm in West TexasLocationSan

55、Angelo,Texas CropCottonAnnual revenue$373,000Farm size500 acresField size111 acresHealthy cropCrop with root rotA multi-season comparison of colour-infrared imagery identified root rot patterns in a 111-acre cotton field Root rot,driven by soil health,presents in similar areas year after yearUse the

56、 arrows to discover moreSpace Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents12F I G U R E 4 Yield optimization in action:Eliminating yield risk and decreasing costs for a cotton farm in West TexasTreated areasUntreated areasThis allowed growers to proa

57、ctively spray affected areas early in the season Variable-rate fungicide application on affected areas onlyLocationSan Angelo,Texas CropCottonAnnual revenue$373,000Farm size500 acresField size111 acresUse the arrows to discover moreLooking forward,yield optimization will drive over 70%of the value f

58、rom satellite-based insights in agriculture.Yield optimization uses advanced analytics to identify intra-field crop defects and inform operations,and its adoption is increasing as growers and agriculture input companies strive to maximize profitability and output per acre.Data from satellites can he

59、lp insight providers identify areas with poor seed emergence early in the season;can identify plant-level indications of disease,weather,pests and crop health mid-season;and can map moisture content across seasons.This data is highly actionable,and can influence operations in real time as growers de

60、cide to re-plant seeds,apply well-timed,hyper-localized inputs(e.g.herbicide,insecticide or fungicide;Figure 2),or alter irrigation plans.Improved operations and yields improve grower profitability by doing more with less,and provide more food per acre planted for the growing population.Space Applic

61、ations in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents13F I G U R E 4 Yield optimization in action:Eliminating yield risk and decreasing costs for a cotton farm in West TexasRevenue protected35 acres salvaged$1.12/lb market price 667 lb/acre average yield$26,200Cost

62、 decreased48 acres not sprayed$124/acre fungicide price$5,900.which saved 95%of at-risk yield using 43%less fungicide and applying fungicide on 48 fewer acres than traditional methodsPost-application crop healthHealthy cropCrop with root rotLocationSan Angelo,Texas CropCottonAnnual revenue$373,000Fa

63、rm size500 acresField size111 acresUse the arrows to discover moreLooking forward,yield optimization will drive over 70%of the value from satellite-based insights in agriculture.Yield optimization uses advanced analytics to identify intra-field crop defects and inform operations,and its adoption is

64、increasing as growers and agriculture input companies strive to maximize profitability and output per acre.Data from satellites can help insight providers identify areas with poor seed emergence early in the season;can identify plant-level indications of disease,weather,pests and crop health mid-sea

65、son;and can map moisture content across seasons.This data is highly actionable,and can influence operations in real time as growers decide to re-plant seeds,apply well-timed,hyper-localized inputs(e.g.herbicide,insecticide or fungicide;Figure 2),or alter irrigation plans.Improved operations and yiel

66、ds improve grower profitability by doing more with less,and provide more food per acre planted for the growing population.Space Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents14In tandem with the need to increase output per acre is the need to do so mor

67、e sustainably,and satellite-based remote sensing can bolster sustainable practices to help the industry reduce emissions,use less water and encourage regenerative practices.Satellite technology has traction in the European Union(EU)today,where governments and NGOs are using satellite data to facilit

68、ate carbon markets and verify regenerative practices that qualify for subsidies.The results are profound in their scale and potential impact:prior to the introduction of satellite technology,only 5%of sustainable agriculture subsidies could be verified due to the time-intensive nature of manual spot

69、-checks,which occurred no more than once annually.Today,over 80%of field inspections are conducted viasatellite imagery,with multiple checks across seasons.3 Satellites are also helping predict,verify and mitigate damage from natural disasters,with their unique ability to remotely monitor conditions

70、 before and after droughts,fires and floods.These capabilities are useful for insurers,and may enable parametric insurance for growers by monitoring and verifying vegetation health and soil moisture levels following storms.Parametric insurance is independent of the underlying asset,and can therefore

71、 be tied to triggering events such as extreme weather without the need for a physical audit.Finally,satellite-based connectivity can make farm equipment autonomous and continuously monitor hardware in remote areas with poor mobile or broadband coverage.These capabilities help operators address field

72、-level problems and edge cases remotely by communicating with equipment in real time,reducing the need for onsite troubleshooting.For example,satellites could help them identify an unrecognized plant as a weed and provide direction to spray.Equipment manufacturers such as John Deere are already begi

73、nning to employ this technology.4 Space Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents15Technology is evolving while costs decline,expanding the customer base2Space Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionC

74、ontents16Expanding technologyAt scale,satellites offer a distinct advantage over other sources such as unmanned aircraft systems(drones),fixed-wing aircraft,high-altitude platforms(aerostats,blimps)and internet-of-things(IoT)hardware.They eliminate the need for insight providers to operate fleets of

75、 aircraft or drones,they cover large geographical areas daily,and they do so with significantly fewer boots on the ground.This scale and frequency advantage creates an opportunity to scale agricultural insights globally and quickly,even to disparate locations and less developed regions.This is in co

76、ntrast to how the market operates today,where providers primarily operate ground-based fleets of aircraft,drones or other sensors to deliver field-level insights.Higher imagery costs and lower resolutions(spatial and temporal)have hampered satellites ability to derive such insights,but those disadva

77、ntages are waning.Across use cases,higher resolutions,more frequent revisits and new sensor capabilities such as thermal bands and hyperspectral sensors are expected to make satellites comparable to other platforms by 2030(Figure 5).Yield optimization,in particular,will move from being highly relian

78、t on localized monitoring via fixed-wing aircraft or drone,as technology improvements will allow satellite-based advanced analytics to,for instance,more reliably detect pests in the field(including weeds,insects and disease),often before they are visible to a human observer and in time for preventiv

79、e action.This advancement will bring satellite image quality in line with that obtained from fixed-wing aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)it is expected to deliver comparable quality in more than 70%of identified use cases,making it viable as the primary source of imagery outside of niche n

80、eeds(e.g.under-canopy data capture).Space Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents17Use caseCommercial satellite10m image resolution(prevalent 2022)QualityStatusQualityStatusEstimate yieldHighMajority of use cases at maximum scaleMediumLimited to

81、 row crops(e.g.corn)Optimize yieldDetect disease and prevent spreadMediumSome capabilitiesLowVery limitedIdentify and protect from insectsMediumLowMeasure and correct nutrient deficienciesMediumLow/MediumSpot and limit weed impactMedium/HighLowFacilitate sustainable practicesOptimize irrigation and

82、water use1MediumAll have MRV2 capabilitiesLowSome have MRV2 capabilitiesMonitor and verify(regenerative)practicesHighMediumVerify and mitigate damage from natural disastersHighMediumImprove connectivityHighGPS and InternetLowGPSOverall assessmentBest suited if costs decline and spectral bands contin

83、ue to improveLacks granularityFixed wing UAVCommercial satellite Public satelliteF I G U R E 5Available technology performance in core use casesNotes:1.Also applies to yield optimization.2.Measurement,reporting and verification.Select the available technology tabs to compare performanceSpace Applica

84、tions in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents18Fixed wing UAVUse caseCommercial satellite3m image resolution(prevalent 2022)QualityStatusQualityStatusEstimate yieldHighMajority of use cases at maximum scaleHighMany use cases but lacks granularityOptimize yie

85、ldDetect disease and prevent spreadMediumSome capabilitiesLowLimitedIdentify and protect from insectsMediumLowMeasure and correct nutrient deficienciesMediumMediumSpot and limit weed impactMedium/HighMediumFacilitate sustainable practicesOptimize irrigation and water use1MediumAll have MRV2 capabili

86、tiesLowMost have MRV2 capabilitiesMonitor and verify(regenerative)practicesHighMedium/HighVerify and mitigate damage from natural disastersHighMedium/HighImprove connectivityHighGPS and InternetLowGPSOverall assessmentBest suited if costs decline and spectral bands continue to improveBest suited if

87、costs decline and spectral bands continue to improvePublic satelliteF I G U R E 5Available technology performance in core use casesNotes:1.Also applies to yield optimization.2.Measurement,reporting and verification.Select the available technology tabs to compare performanceCommercial satellite Space

88、 Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents19Use caseCommercial satellite1m image resolutionPrevalent 203010cm image resolutionQualityStatusQualityStatusEstimate yieldHighMajority of use cases at maximum scaleHighMajority of use cases,difficult to

89、scaleOptimize yieldDetect disease and prevent spreadMediumSome capabilitiesMediumSome capabilitiesIdentify and protect from insectsMediumMediumMeasure and correct nutrient deficienciesMediumMediumSpot and limit weed impactMedium/HighHighFacilitate sustainable practicesOptimize irrigation and water u

90、se1MediumAll have MRV2 capabilitiesHighAll have MRV2 capabilitiesMonitor and verify(regenerative)practicesHighHighVerify and mitigate damage from natural disastersHighHighImprove connectivityHighGPS and InternetLacks permanenceOverall assessmentBest suited if costs decline and spectral bands continu

91、e to improveLacks scaleUAVPublic satelliteF I G U R E 5Available technology performance in core use casesNotes:1.Also applies to yield optimization.2.Measurement,reporting and verification.Select the available technology tabs to compare performanceCommercial satellite Fixed wing Space Applications i

92、n Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents20Use caseCommercial satellite1m image resolutionPrevalent 20303cm image resolutionQualityStatusQualityStatusEstimate yieldHighMajority of use cases at maximum scaleHighMost use cases,difficult to scaleOptimize yieldDete

93、ct disease and prevent spreadMediumSome capabilitiesMediumSome capabilitiesIdentify and protect from insectsMediumHighMeasure and correct nutrient deficienciesMediumMediumSpot and limit weed impactMedium/HighHighFacilitate sustainable practicesOptimize irrigation and water use1MediumAll have MRV2 ca

94、pabilitiesHighAll have MRV2 capabilitiesMonitor and verify(regenerative)practicesHighHighVerify and mitigate damage from natural disastersHighHighImprove connectivityHighGPS and InternetLacks permanenceOverall assessmentBest suited if costs decline and spectral bands continue to improveLacks scalePu

95、blic satelliteF I G U R E 5Available technology performance in core use casesNotes:1.Also applies to yield optimization.2.Measurement,reporting and verification.Select the available technology tabs to compare performanceCommercial satellite Fixed wing UAVSpace Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing F

96、ood and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents21Better economicsIn addition to technological limitations,prices for very high-resolution satellite data have historically been prohibitively high for agricultural use cases.But prices are expected to decline as an increased supply of new high-

97、resolution providers enters the market with competitive cost structures,while UAV and fixed-wing aircraft prices remain stable due to structural labour and fuel costs that account for more than 50%of their cost structures.5 The blended cost of high-and very high-resolution satellite imagery is expec

98、ted to decline by 25%to 50%by 2030,bringing satellite imagery costs to a competitive level with that of equivalent-quality fixed-wing aircraft and UAVs.In addition to cost,insights providers consider flexibility of imagery acquisition,operating complexity and the risks associated with the investment

99、 in each imagery source(Figure 6).Satellite imagery is the most flexible and least complex option for providers,but it has risks;for example,cloud cover can hamper image acquisition.Imagery providers may need to retain aircraft and UAV fleets to meet select customer needs or tackle inclement weather

100、,but the scale advantages of satellite will likely reduce the size of such fleets.Analytics companies may use imagery sources in combination,butthe mix will depend on relative cost,flexibility,complexity and riskF I G U R E 6Considerations for imagery acquisitionFlexibilityComplexityRiskCostSatellit

101、e Blended high-resolution(HR)and very high-resolution(VHR)image acquisitionUAVsGrower or partner operatedFixed-wing aircraftNeutralAdvantagedAdvantagedHR is cost competitive today.VHR costs are expected to drop 25-50%and become cost competitive by 2030 as supply increases,but UAVs will still be chea

102、per.1 Grower operated is highly cost effectivePartner operated costs could decrease rapidly if pilots operate multiple dronesAdvantaged today,but unlikely to decline given cost structure(labour,fuel)UAVs(owned)UAVs(partner)Fixed-wing aircraftVHR and HR satellite1.501.000.5002022202920282027202620252

103、0242023Image acquisition cost,$/acreNote:1.UAV cost decline is dependent on regulatory approval for one pilot flying multiple UAVs.Select the tabs to discover moreSpace Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents22ComplexityRiskBetter economicsF I G

104、 U R E 6Considerations for imagery acquisitionCostFlexibilitySatellite Blended high-resolution(HR)and very high-resolution(VHR)image acquisitionUAVsGrower or partner operatedFixed-wing aircraftAdvantagedDisadvantagedDisadvantagedHighly modular,with ability to acquire images of small areas as neededR

105、esource constrained during short,high-value windows such as crop emergence,when image capture must occur within a two-week periodAnalytics companies may use imagery sources in combination,butthe mix will depend on relative cost,flexibility,complexity and riskSelect the tabs to discover moreIn additi

106、on to technological limitations,prices for very high-resolution satellite data have historically been prohibitively high for agricultural use cases.But prices are expected to decline as an increased supply of new high-resolution providers enters the market with competitive cost structures,while UAV

107、and fixed-wing aircraft prices remain stable due to structural labour and fuel costs that account for more than 50%of their cost structures.5 The blended cost of high-and very high-resolution satellite imagery is expected to decline by 25%to 50%by 2030,bringing satellite imagery costs to a competiti

108、ve level with that of equivalent-quality fixed-wing aircraft and UAVs.In addition to cost,insights providers consider flexibility of imagery acquisition,operating complexity and the risks associated with the investment in each imagery source(Figure 6).Satellite imagery is the most flexible and least

109、 complex option for providers,but it has risks;for example,cloud cover can hamper image acquisition.Imagery providers may need to retain aircraft and UAV fleets to meet select customer needs or tackle inclement weather,but the scale advantages of satellite will likely reduce the size of such fleets.

110、Space Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents23Better economicsF I G U R E 6Considerations for imagery acquisitionFlexibilityRiskCostComplexitySatellite Blended high-resolution(HR)and very high-resolution(VHR)image acquisitionUAVsGrower or partn

111、er operatedFixed-wing aircraftAdvantagedDisadvantagedDisadvantagedBroad geographic reach is possible through even a single partnership Physical operations or partnerships are required in each market,increasing management costs as well as logistical complexity Grower area(customer)Grower area(non-cus

112、tomer)Satellite image captureAircraft area of operationsA single satellite partner can serve multiple markets,tailoring coverage to adoptionAircraft/UAV requires regional partnerships and increased physical presenceV.Analytics companies may use imagery sources in combination,butthe mix will depend o

113、n relative cost,flexibility,complexity and riskSelect the tabs to discover moreIn addition to technological limitations,prices for very high-resolution satellite data have historically been prohibitively high for agricultural use cases.But prices are expected to decline as an increased supply of new

114、 high-resolution providers enters the market with competitive cost structures,while UAV and fixed-wing aircraft prices remain stable due to structural labour and fuel costs that account for more than 50%of their cost structures.5 The blended cost of high-and very high-resolution satellite imagery is

115、 expected to decline by 25%to 50%by 2030,bringing satellite imagery costs to a competitive level with that of equivalent-quality fixed-wing aircraft and UAVs.In addition to cost,insights providers consider flexibility of imagery acquisition,operating complexity and the risks associated with the inve

116、stment in each imagery source(Figure 6).Satellite imagery is the most flexible and least complex option for providers,but it has risks;for example,cloud cover can hamper image acquisition.Imagery providers may need to retain aircraft and UAV fleets to meet select customer needs or tackle inclement w

117、eather,but the scale advantages of satellite will likely reduce the size of such fleets.Space Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents24Better economicsF I G U R E 6Considerations for imagery acquisitionFlexibilityCostComplexityRiskSatellite Blen

118、ded high-resolution(HR)and very high-resolution(VHR)image acquisitionUAVsGrower or partner operatedFixed-wing aircraftDisadvantagedNeutralDisadvantagedLower certainty of image capture due to weather(cloud cover)Less timeliness and quality control for owner-operatedReliant on regulatory changes for c

119、osts to come downCosts will increase moving forward,given labour and fuel needsAnalytics companies may use imagery sources in combination,butthe mix will depend on relative cost,flexibility,complexity and riskSelect the tabs to discover moreIn addition to technological limitations,prices for very hi

120、gh-resolution satellite data have historically been prohibitively high for agricultural use cases.But prices are expected to decline as an increased supply of new high-resolution providers enters the market with competitive cost structures,while UAV and fixed-wing aircraft prices remain stable due t

121、o structural labour and fuel costs that account for more than 50%of their cost structures.5 The blended cost of high-and very high-resolution satellite imagery is expected to decline by 25%to 50%by 2030,bringing satellite imagery costs to a competitive level with that of equivalent-quality fixed-win

122、g aircraft and UAVs.In addition to cost,insights providers consider flexibility of imagery acquisition,operating complexity and the risks associated with the investment in each imagery source(Figure 6).Satellite imagery is the most flexible and least complex option for providers,but it has risks;for

123、 example,cloud cover can hamper image acquisition.Imagery providers may need to retain aircraft and UAV fleets to meet select customer needs or tackle inclement weather,but the scale advantages of satellite will likely reduce the size of such fleets.Space Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food a

124、nd Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents25Customer expansionImproved cost and operating models will attract a multitude of customer groups,including those that operate across borders and require the scale that satellites can provide.Initiatives such as COMESAs food balance sheet garner the

125、 attention of other governments and NGOs,who may choose to replicate the technology or expand it to other use cases.Addressing food security is likely to remain a focus due to the cost savings and social impact$20billion is spent annually to combat global food insecurity as will the compliance monit

126、oring of climate-related regulation and other field-level verification activities made possible by satellites scale.Crop insurance and carbon credit markets are likely to employ satellites for a similar reason time intensive,operations heavy activities like claim validation and soil-carbon monitorin

127、g cause significant costs to owners of these businesses,who may see satellite as a singular option for expanding to data-or population-scarce environments.Agriculture professionals,including equipment manufacturers,crop traders and growers are the largest users today,but more users and use cases are

128、 likely to emerge.Traders using satellite data have historically beaten the market by 4%to 5%,and have every reason to further invest in in-house,proprietary satellite models.Original equipment manufacturers(OEMs),which work closely with growers to provide and process immense amounts of data from th

129、e field,will be able to help growers to further optimize operations and yield.Greater adoption of remote-sensing technologies for growers is the largest opportunity for satellite-related applications in agriculture,and their usage is already increasing.In McKinsey&Companys 2022 digital farmer adopti

130、on survey,29%of row crop farmers and 45%of specialty crop farmers in the United States(US)said they currently employed remote sensing or planned to in the next two years.The numbers were even higher in South America(88%)and Europe(79%).With younger operators increasingly graduating into management r

131、oles,adoption will increase already 60%of users are under 44 years of age.Space Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents26Opportunity for industry3Space Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContent

132、s27Satellite imagerys expanding ability to serve multiple users and use cases will grow the market considerably the amount customers spend on space-based imagery and analytics for agricultural applications is expected to increase 9-12%a year from 2022 to 2030,expanding to a serviceable market of$0.8

133、-1billion and creating$1.3-2 billion of value for the agriculture industry(Figure 7).6 This is a departure from how the market operates today,where free,publicly available data has penetrated every step of the value chain but is limited in impact by low resolution and infrequent data refreshes.Yield

134、 optimization drives the majority of the shift towards paid,high-resolution satellite imagery,as the projected 25-50%decline in cost improves the returns for growers.7 Scale matters,though,and 70%of growth is predicted to come from larger farms with revenue of more than$1 million each,which have mor

135、e to gain economically and operationally(Figure 8).F I G U R E 7Estimated market size by use case(in million US dollars)20222030 estimate9-12%per annum1Improve yield estimatesOptimize yieldImprove connectivityMitigate natural disastersEnhance sustainability+300-50075-125175-225575-625400-500800-1,00

136、0Note:1.If hurdles are addressed and adoption accelerates.Source:World Economic Forum and McKinsey analysis informed by expert interviews and industry publications (e.g.Northern Sky Research).Space Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents28Applie

137、d at scale,satellite-enabled insights can improve global yields and food-management practices,as evidenced by COMESAs food balance sheet initiative.Satellite-based insights have also helped fruit farmers enrolled in the Fruitlook programme of South Africas Western Cape Department of Agriculture to d

138、ecrease water use by more than 10%through more efficient irrigation practices.Such actions could improve food security and water scarcity worldwide,driving progress towards several of the UNs Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs),including SDG 2(zero hunger),SDG 12(responsible consumption and producti

139、on),SDG 13(climate action)and SDG 15(life on land).F I G U R E 8Market growth by user segment20222030 estimateEstimated commercial satellite-based insights market by end-customer segment,in million US dollars9-12%per annum1+400-500800-1,000Representative end customer2ROI3Small to medium farms($1m or

140、 less)50%Large farms(revenue$1-5m)100%Very large farms(revenue$5m+)200%Crop traders100%Governments125%Insurers25%Carbon markets25%7512550010015050651904040Notes:1.If hurdles are addressed and adoption accelerates.2.Growers may source insights from intermediaries such as agricultural distribution com

141、panies.3.Return on investment is based on the value delivered cost savings or revenue growth compared to cost of insights.Source:World Economic Forum and McKinsey analysis informed by expert interviews and industry publications(e.g.Northern Sky Research).Space Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing F

142、ood and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents29Stakeholders must collaborateIt will take coordinated efforts among disparate stakeholders to drive greater adoption of satellite applications in agriculture.Three main hurdles are evident:(1)a lack of collaboration between cross-industry stak

143、eholders,(2)limited accuracy of,and end-user confidence in,satellite-based insights,and(3)high,slowly declining costs(Figure 11).F I G U R E 9Calls to action to address hurdlesTo remove hurdles to adoptionImprove collaboration between cross-industry stakeholders123Accelerate the movement down the co

144、st curve for satellite insightsEnhance accuracy and confidence in satellite-based insightsGovernmentsAs soon as possible:Become a customer yourselfSoon:Explore collaboration models with the private sector to subsize costs and validate dataCloud providersSoon:Work with analytics and satellite provide

145、rs to streamline processing costsAnalytics companiesNow:Create a feedback loop with satellite providersAs soon as possible:Catalyse cross-industry partnershipsSoon:Dedicate resources to develop satellite-based insightsSelect the circles to discover moreSatellite companiesOngoing:Continue to expand v

146、olume and breadth of imagery availableNow:Provide archival imagery at low/no costGrowersSoon:Leverage cooperatives,commodity boards and other networks for mass collaboration and sharing of relevant dataSpace Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionConten

147、ts30Stakeholders must collaborateF I G U R E 9Calls to action to address hurdlesTo remove hurdles to adoptionImprove collaboration between cross-industry stakeholders123Accelerate the movement down the cost curve for satellite insightsEnhance accuracy and confidence in satellite-based insightsGrower

148、sSoon:Leverage cooperatives,commodity boards and other networks for mass collaboration and sharing of relevant dataGovernmentsAs soon as possible:Become a customer yourselfSoon:Explore collaboration models with the private sector to subsize costs and validate dataSatellite companiesOngoing:Continue

149、to expand volume and breadth of imagery availableNow:Provide archival imagery at low/no costAnalytics companiesNow:Create a feedback loop with satellite providersAs soon as possible:Catalyse cross-industry partnershipsSoon:Dedicate resources to develop satellite-based insightsSelect the circles to d

150、iscover moreIt will take coordinated efforts among disparate stakeholders to drive greater adoption of satellite applications in agriculture.Three main hurdles are evident:(1)a lack of collaboration between cross-industry stakeholders,(2)limited accuracy of,and end-user confidence in,satellite-based

151、 insights,and(3)high,slowly declining costs(Figure 11).Cloud providersSoon:Work with analytics and satellite providers to streamline processing costsSpace Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents31Stakeholders must collaborateF I G U R E 9Calls t

152、o action to address hurdlesTo remove hurdles to adoptionImprove collaboration between cross-industry stakeholders123Accelerate the movement down the cost curve for satellite insightsEnhance accuracy and confidence in satellite-based insightsSatellite companiesOngoing:Continue to expand volume and br

153、eadth of imagery availableNow:Provide archival imagery at low/no costCloud providersSoon:Work with analytics and satellite providers to streamline processing costsSelect the circles to discover moreIt will take coordinated efforts among disparate stakeholders to drive greater adoption of satellite a

154、pplications in agriculture.Three main hurdles are evident:(1)a lack of collaboration between cross-industry stakeholders,(2)limited accuracy of,and end-user confidence in,satellite-based insights,and(3)high,slowly declining costs(Figure 11).GovernmentsAs soon as possible:Become a customer yourselfSo

155、on:Explore collaboration models with the private sector to subsize costs and validate dataGrowersSoon:Leverage cooperatives,commodity boards and other networks for mass collaboration and sharing of relevant dataAnalytics companiesNow:Create a feedback loop with satellite providersAs soon as possible

156、:Catalyse cross-industry partnershipsSoon:Dedicate resources to develop satellite-based insightsSpace Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents32Satellite and analytics providers can improve accuracy and confidence by involving users in their tech

157、nology development roadmaps,ensuring a tight linkage between user needs and insights provided.Offering transparency into how insights are derived,highlighting where they are most accurate or fall short,is also critical and will require cross-industry collaboration to clearly represent the assumption

158、s and facts influencing results.This is a valuable first step in gaining grower trust to act on insights but ultimately,the true test of accuracy is testimonials and proven value creation.Ironically,getting model accuracy to reliable levels requires high investment of human resources,as data gathere

159、d manually on the ground is required to train analytics models and validate what the images predict.And not all cropland is alike a field of maize in Kenya looks different than one in Indiana,so ground truthing data must include a comprehensive set of variables such as crop type,the observed event(e

160、.g.planting date,weed or disease presence)and eventual yield all tagged to the location where the observation was made and compared to imagery produced in the same period.Obviously,such data is costly to gather on a wide scale creating the need for substantial cross-industry collaboration.Such colla

161、boration is not simple,involving five or more industries at varying stages of the user lifecycle.Satellite companies should be the catalyst,providing archival imagery and often real-time imagery at low or no cost to insight developers,who in turn must dedicate a meaningful part of their organization

162、 to satellite-based analytics.Growers,then,should ensure ground-truth data availability by bringing together cooperatives,commodity boards and other networks to collaborate and share relevant data with governments and analytics companies.This will improve insight models and decrease data validation

163、costs.Governments,NGOs and analytics companies can make data-sharing easy,anonymous and value accretive to growers who participate.Cloud providers can aid the validation effort by working with analytics and satellite providers to avoid imagery redundancies,streamline processing costs and reduce over

164、all data costs.Finally,by 2030,prices for satellite imagery must decline to a level comparable with other imaging alternatives.Satellite imagery prices are already naturally declining as the market matures,and intensifying competition from multiple providers with advanced payloads could quicken the

165、pace of price decline(Figure 10).Satellite companies should continue to work to expand the volume and breadth of imagery available to quicken market maturity,which governments can facilitate via subsidies,public-private partnerships,investments in use cases where private sector return on investment(

166、ROI)is challenging,and other large-scale,programmatic actions.Space Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents33F I G U R E 1 0Comparison of free versus commercially available satellite dataCommercial:high resolutionPublicCommercialOwnerSatelliteDa

167、ta typeSpatial resolution(pixel width in metres)Revisit frequency(days)Spectral resolution(number of bands)Base price1(US dollars/acre)Area of interest minimum area and width(acres,K)AirbusPleiades NeoMultispectral0.326$0.1325Maxar Technologies Inc.WorldView 3Multispectral0.318$0.1425|0.7Maxar Techn

168、ologies Inc.WorldView 2Multispectral0.418$0.1325PlanetSkysatMultispectral0.574$0.050AirbusPleiadesMultispectral0.524$0.0925|0.1KARIKOMPSAT-3Multispectral0.714$0.0625BlackSkyBlackSky GlobalMultispectral0.850.13$0.031ICEYEICEYERadar114SatellogicNuSatMultispectral10.255$0.030AirbusSPOT6/7Multispectral1

169、.524$0.02124PlanetPlanetscopeMultispectral318$0.0162Note:1.Price for tasked imagery(i.e.a request that the satellite acquire an image of a new area of interest)before dedicated negotiation.Note that historical data may vary due to constellation build-up through time that is,as new satellites are add

170、ed to the constellation,they typically increase the revisit frequency and sometimes add information such as new bands,increased swath and increased spatial resolution.Click here to switch between viewsSpace Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContent

171、s34CommercialPublicF I G U R E 1 0Comparison of free versus commercially available satellite dataOwnerSatelliteData typeSpatial resolution(pixel width in metres)Revisit frequency(days)Spectral resolution(number of bands)Base price1(US dollars/acre)Area of interest minimum area and width(acres,K)ESAS

172、entinel-2 A/BMultispectral10513$0.000NASAASTERHyperspectral15114$0.000ESASentinel-1Radar2034$0.000NASALandsat-8/9Multispectral30811$0.000NASAMODISMultispectral500136$0.000Public:low resolutionNote:1.Price for tasked imagery(i.e.a request that the satellite acquire an image of a new area of interest)

173、before dedicated negotiation.Note that historical data may vary due to constellation build-up through time that is,as new satellites are added to the constellation,they typically increase the revisit frequency and sometimes add information such as new bands,increased swath and increased spatial reso

174、lution.Click here to switch between viewsSpace Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents35ConclusionThe potential of satellites to scale agricultural insights to a level operationally impossible from the ground means that even incremental improvem

175、ents can make a significant impact shifting the balance away from terrestrial-based fleets and towards space monitoring solutions.In the next decade,improving resolution and decreasing per-image prices will create the opportunity for satellite-based remote sensing to scale to a level previously cons

176、idered impossible.However,without action by most stakeholders in the industry,adoption will not reach its potential.Satellite companies,agriculture companies,insight providers,governments,NGOs and growers must act together,now.The technology needed for satellite data-driven insights to hit S-curve g

177、rowth is primed and the right actions from growers,technologies,governments and the space and agriculture industries can help satellite applications realize their full potential rapidly in order to address some of the largest issues of today.Space Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water

178、 Security,Improving Climate ActionContents36ContributorsWorld Economic Forum Nikolai Khlystov Lead,Future of Space,World Economic Forum,Switzerland Minoo Rathnasabapathy Research Engineer,MIT Media Lab,Massachusetts Institute of Technology(MIT),USA,and Project Fellow,Future of Space,World Economic F

179、orum,SwitzerlandFederico Ronca Community Specialist,Food Systems Initiative,World Economic Forum,SwitzerlandMcKinsey&Company Nicolas Bellemans Management Consultant,Brussels,BelgiumRyan Brukardt Senior Partner,Miami,USASarah Catalano Management Consultant,San Francisco,USA Ryan Degnan Management Con

180、sultant,Denver,USARyan McCullough Partner,Denver,USAProductionStudio MikoPhoebe Barker Lead DesignerLaurence Denmark Creative DirectorEditingMadhur Singh EditorThe World Economic Forum would like to extend its sincere thanks to the space and agriculture leaders who contributed their valuable insight

181、s and perspectives to this briefing paper.Various individuals contributed to the two in-depth discussions as part of this workstream,to provide insights on the value and growth potential of satellite applications for the agriculture sector.Space Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water S

182、ecurity,Improving Climate ActionContents37Endnotes1.Excluding animal protein;upper threshold assuming 50%success rate for issue identification and 80%efficacy of crop protection products.Based on estimates of costs to the global economy of annual plant disease and invasive insects by the Food and Ag

183、riculture Organization(FAO).2.Based on composite market size for agriculture inputs(fertilizer and crop protection)from S&P Compustat,Phillips McDougal,Institute for Food and Agriculture and the World Bank.3.European Court of Auditors,“Special Report:Using new imaging technologies to monitor the Com

184、mon Agricultural Policy:steady progress overall,but slower for climate and environment monitoring,”accessed on 8 January 2020,https:/www.eca.europa.eu/Lists/ECADocuments/SR20_04/SR_New_technologies_in_agri-monitoring_EN.pdf.4.Jewett,Rachel,“John Deere releases satcom RFP for always-on,connected agri

185、cultural solution,”Via Satellite,accessedon 29 September 2022,https:/ paper assumes drone prices could decline if regulators allow a single pilot to fly multiple drones.If this technology is not approved by regulators,satellites will be even more cost-competitive.6.The$2 to$3 billion projection is b

186、ased on expected price and adoption rates informed by McKinsey 2022 Annual Grower Survey;the$1.5 billion figure is driven by a mixture of cost reduction or revenue increase for customers by use case:6%to 10%cost reduction for yield estimation,4%to 6%of cost reduction for yield optimization,2%insuran

187、ce-fraud reduction and 7%uplift in carbon-market participation.7.Projection based on McKinsey analysis of historical high-resolution and very high-resolution satellite price changes,informed by Northern Sky Research Satellite-Based Earth Observation,10th edition.Space Applications in Agriculture:Enhancing Food and Water Security,Improving Climate ActionContents38