《經濟學人智庫：2023中東銀行業韌性分析報告（英文版）（9頁）.pdf》由會員分享，可在線閱讀，更多相關《經濟學人智庫：2023中東銀行業韌性分析報告（英文版）（9頁）.pdf（9頁珍藏版）》請在三個皮匠報告上搜索。

1、Strong financial buffers,stringent regulation and government supportThe Middle Easts banking sector resilienceLONDON Economist Intelligence The Adelphi1-11 John Adam Street,London,WC2N 6HT United Kingdom Tel:+44(0)20 7576 8000 e-mail: GURUGRAM Economist Intelligence TEG India Pvt LtdSkootr Spaces,Un

2、it No.1,12th Floor,Tower B,Building No.9DLF Cyber City,Phase IIIGurugram 122002Haryana,IndiaTel:+91 124 6409486 e-mail:NEW YORK Economist Intelligence 900 Third Avenue16th FloorNew York,NY 10022United StatesTel:+1 212 541 0500e-mail:DUBAI Economist Intelligence PO Box No-450056,Office No-1301A Auror

3、a Tower Dubai Media City Dubai,United Arab Emirates Tel:+971 4 4463 147 e-mail: HONG KONG Economist Intelligence 1301 Cityplaza Four 12 Taikoo Wan Road Taikoo Shing,Hong Kong Tel:+852 2585 3888 e-mail:Contact usFor more information on our solutions and how they can help your organisation,please visi

4、t .The world leader in global business intelligenceEIU offers deep insight and analysis of the economic and political developments in the increasingly complex global environment;identifying opportunities,trends,and risks on a global and national scale.Formed in 1946,with more than 70 years of experi

5、ence,it is ideally positioned to be a commentator,interpreter and forecaster on the phenomenon of globalisation as it gathers pace,enabling businesses,financial firms,educational institutions and governments to plan effectively for uncertain futures.Actionable insight to win in the worlds marketsThe

6、 worlds leading organisations rely on our subscription services for data,analysis and forecasts that keep them informed about emerging issues around the world.We specialise in:Country analysisaccess detailed country-specific economic and political forecasts,as well as assessments of the business env

7、ironments in different markets with EIU Viewpoint.Risk analysisour risk services identify actual and potential threats around the world to help our clients understand the implications for their organisations.Available products:Financial Risk and Operational Risk.Industry analysisfive-year forecasts,

8、analysis of key themes and news analysis for six key industries in 60 major economies.These forecasts are based on the latest data and in-depth analysis of industry trends,available via EIU Viewpoint.Speaker Bureaubook the experts behind the award-winning economic and political forecasts.Our team is

9、 available for presentations and panel moderation as well as boardroom briefings covering their specialisms.Explore Speaker Bureau for more speaker information.THE MIDDLE EASTS BANKING SECTOR RESILIENCESTRONG FINANCIAL BUFFERS,STRINGENT REGULATION AND GOVERNMENT SUPPORT The Economist Intelligence Un

10、it Limited 20231 The stability of banking in the Middle Easts leading finance hubsespecially those in Dubai,Abu Dhabi,Tel Aviv,Doha,Bahrain,Riyadh and Kuwait Citywill be supported by solid financial buffers,stringent financial sector regulation and the willingness of governments to step in and provi

11、de support in times of need.Some Middle Eastern banks have suffered write-downs on their investments in financially stressed or under threat financial institutions in Europe and North America,but their losses are small relative to total assets and are not a direct threat to capital or liquidity buff

12、ers,or to bank sector profitability.Middle Eastern banking sectors have survived past financial crises reasonably unscathed and the starting position for key financial hubs this time round is strong.Nevertheless,the Middle East is not immune to the effects of a wider global financial meltdownwhich c

13、ould lower income streams,erode profitability and prompt a deterioration in asset quality for the regions banks.The global banking sector has been unnerved by the impact of high inflation and aggressive monetary policy tightening by major central banks over the past 12 months.In recent weeks,central

14、 bankers,financial regulators and banking sector executives have grappled with the collapse of three regional banks in the US,a forced buy-out of one large but inherently weak entity in EuropeCredit Suisse was taken over by its Switzerland-based peer UBSand increased volatility,with downside pressur

15、e for banking sector share prices.These events have raised concerns about the possibility of a new financial crisis and contagion risks for banking sectors in emerging markets,including those in the Middle East.So far,equity prices for banks in the region have been affected by fears of contagion,but

16、 the impact has been modest and short-lived.Limited investment in troubled assetsMiddle Eastern banks have limited direct exposure through investment in equities or bonds linked to financially stressed institutions in North America and Europe.Gulf Co-operation Council(GCC)commercial banks had less t

17、han 5%of total assets and less than 3%of total liabilities involving US counterparts at the end of 2022,and although they have increased their financial links to European financial services providers in recent yearsespecially Saudi Arabia following an aggressive outreach strategytheir overall exposu

18、re remains manageable.Middle Eastern banking sector resilienceMiddle East:banking sector risk,March 2023(risk score:0=low 100-high)Egypt(51)Turkey(61)Iraq(65)Syria(91)Jordan(49)SaudiArabia(33)Yemen(91)Oman(48)Bahrain(49)Lebanon(89)Qatar(38)Israel(28)Iran(74)Kuwait(43)UAE(44)010050Source:EIU.THE MIDD

19、LE EASTS BANKING SECTOR RESILIENCESTRONG FINANCIAL BUFFERS,STRINGENT REGULATION AND GOVERNMENT SUPPORT The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20232Some individual Middle Eastern banks and investors have taken sizeable losses on their investments in the European financial system.Saudi National Bankt

20、he kingdoms largest bank,with assets of US$251bn at the end of 2022has lost about US$1.2bn of its US$1.5bn investment made in November 2022 to acquire an almost 10%stake in Credit Suisse.However,this loss represents a tiny fraction of its investment portfolio and is not expected to significantly den

21、t income streams or bank profitability.Other major GCC investors in the European banking space are mostly sovereign wealth funds or state-owned institutions,such as the Qatari Investment Authority,which was another top shareholder in Credit Suisse and has large investments in Deutsche Bank and Barcl

22、ays,but again their investments are small compared with their overall pool of assets under management and do not pose a direct material risk.Robust banking performance in key hubsBanking sectors in the regions key business and finance hubs located in the GCC states and Israelespecially Dubai,Abu Dha

23、bi,Tel Aviv,Doha,Bahrain,Riyadh and Kuwait Cityappear well positioned to withstand the shocks emerging from financial markets in Europe and North America.These hubs hold the regions key financial institutions and most developed banking industries and have started 2023 on a strong financial footing.F

24、or instance,total assets,customer deposits,net loans and net interest incomethe difference between interest earned from lending activities and interest paid to depositorsfor GCC listed banks have been on an upwards trajectory since the start of 2021 and these performance measures reached record high

25、s in the fourth quarter of 2022.The outlook for the banking industry in 2023 across the GCC and Israel looks reasonably bright given the expectation of strong international energy demand and associated investment and exports,recovering tourism industries,buoyant non-energy business activity,major pu

26、blic and private investment programmes,and a continued boom in initial public offerings(IPOs),which had a bumper year in 2022.Moreover,the GCC banking sector is likely to benefit from stable exchange rates and relatively low inflation,as well as the prospect of further consolidation across the indus

27、try amid GCC investment in European banks,2022(bn)Sources:S&P Global;EIU.UAEBahrainKuwaitQatarSaudi ArabiaBarclaysCredit SuisseGroupDeutscheBankUniCreditHSBCHoldingsLloydsBankingGroupNatWestGroupStandardChartered00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8THE MIDDLE EASTS BANKING SECTOR RESILIENCESTRONG FINANCIAL B

28、UFFERS,STRINGENT REGULATION AND GOVERNMENT SUPPORT The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20233the push to create lenders with larger revenue streams and operating efficiencies capable of supporting ambitious diversification agendas.Recourse to solid financial buffersBanks across major markets in t

29、he Middle East retain ample financial buffers in terms of core capital-adequacy ratios,liquidity coverage ratios and net stable funding ratios.All these measures were comfortably above the minimum required levels as set out under Basel III requirements for banking sectors in aggregate and for major

30、individual banks in 2022.In addition,and specifically in the GCC,banks tend to rely much Gulf Co-operation Council:bank assets,loans and deposits(US$bn)(US$bn)Source:EIU.Conventional assetsIslamic assetsNet loansCustomer depositsQ1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4201920212205001,0001,500

31、2,0002,5003,000Gulf Co-operation Council:bank revenueSource:EIU.Net interest incomeNon-interest incomeTotal bank revenueQ1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42019202122051015202530Gulf Co-operation Council:initial publicofering activitySource:EIU.Aggregate value(US$bn)Number of transactions

32、200809 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22010203040502713129101317752312981946Middle East:banking sector capital-adequacy ratio(ratio of Tier 1 and Tier 2 capital to risk-weighted assets)Source:EIU.Saudi ArabiaQatarBahrainEgyptKuwaitOmanJordanUAETurkeyIsraelLebanon05101520Basel III capital-adequa

33、cy ratio minimum requirementTHE MIDDLE EASTS BANKING SECTOR RESILIENCESTRONG FINANCIAL BUFFERS,STRINGENT REGULATION AND GOVERNMENT SUPPORT The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20234more on relatively stable domestic funding sources from government,corporate and retail depositors rather than exter

34、nal,market-sensitive financea characteristic that provides them with a degree of certainty and stability for core funding sources.Government support in times of needBanks across the Middle East retain the backing of governments with an active presence in the financial services sector,which can prove

35、 crucial in times of need to curtail runs on banks caused by depositors and investors seeking to withdraw funds or exit their investment positions.This is especially the case in the GCC,where governments have a track record of stepping in with considerable support during times of need,as seen during

36、 the global financial crisis of 2008 and the early stages of the covid-19 pandemic in 2020.The Israeli government has less scope to intervene and support the countrys banking industry than its GCC counterparts,but the sector itself has solid investments and large capital buffers.In addition,the Isra

37、eli banking sector works closely with the regulator to ensure risk-mitigation strategies are effectively implemented and maintained,which helps to create a stable operating environment.For their part,GCC states have sought to improve financial services sector regulation and comply with international

38、 best practice to help to attract foreign investment and set the foundation for a stable environment that supports their own development and diversification agendas.Middle East is not immune to global financial stressesGulf Co-operation Council:bankingfinancial performance(%;Q3 2022)Source:EIU.Retur

39、n on equityImpaired loans0246810121411.83.413.15.512.12.812.01.99.71.68.34.07.34.2GCCUAEQatarSaudiArabiaKuwaitBahrainOmanMiddle Eastern sovereign wealth funds(US$bn;assets under management;end-2022)Source:EIU.Abu DhabiInvestmentAuthorityKuwaitInvestmentAuthorityPublicInvestment Fund(Saudi Arabia)Qat

40、arInvestmentAuthorityInvestmentCorporationof DubaiMubadala(Abu Dhabi)02004006008001,0001,200THE MIDDLE EASTS BANKING SECTOR RESILIENCESTRONG FINANCIAL BUFFERS,STRINGENT REGULATION AND GOVERNMENT SUPPORT The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20235The Middle East has fared better than other regions

41、during previous periods of financial instability,such as the global financial crisis of 2008.Limited direct exposure to risky foreign investments,a focus on traditional lending and savings mobilisation,strong regulation and financial buffers,and prompt and forceful policy action proved beneficial in

42、 the past and will provide some protection once again.Moreover,limited integration into the global financial system of the regions weaker states should militate against direct effects through the financial system.However,an escalation of the current financial difficulties in major developed markets

43、and a sharp deterioration in global financial conditions would most likely affect the Middle East through second-round effects and in various ways.The regions developed and developing banking sectors would probably suffer impacts on income statements and balance sheets caused by a contraction in glo

44、bal economic activity,trade and investment,volatile and bearish international energy markets,plunging overseas and domestic asset pricesincluding equities and real estateand softer domestic business activity.The Middle Easts major banking industries would remain well capitalised,but profitability an

45、d asset quality would probably suffer,to the detriment of regional economic growth and stability.The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20236EIU Viewpoint:Country Analysis Preparing you for whats aheadUnderstand a countrys political,policy and economic outlook with our award-winning forecasts,analy

46、sis and data.Our experts assess the global dynamics that impact organisations,so you can plan and operate effectively.Whats included?Global and regional outlook spanning politics,economics and market-moving topics Daily insights on the developments that impact the future outlook Executive summaries

47、of country forecasts over the medium-term outlook Medium-term country forecasts on 200 countries political and economic landscape Long-term country forecasts on the structural trends shaping 80 major economies Industry analysis on the outlook for 26 sectors in 70 markets Commodity forecasts on suppl

48、y,demand and prices of 25 critical goods Macroeconomic data on forecasts,as well as historic trends Industry data on demand and supply of key goods,now and in the future Proprietary ratings on the business environment Thematic analysis of the cross-cutting issues that our experts expect to shape the

49、 global outlookHow Country Analysis helps you to stay ahead Expansive coverage-global,regional and country-level analysis for nearly 200 markets,delivered by our analysts.Every month,20,000 data series are updated,enabling you to adapt and plan ahead.Challenging consensus-stay ahead of your competit

50、ors.For more than 70 years our forecasting teams have made bold calls,accurately.A nuanced approach-intuitively designed to address politics,policy and the economy,our methodology includes detailed insights in addition to data.Robust,accurate information-apply insights with confidence.Our forecasts

51、and analysis are non-biased and rigorously researched.To arrange a demonstration of EIUs Country Analysis service or to discuss the content and features included,please visit 2023 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited.All rights reserved.Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduce

52、d,stored in a retrieval system,or transmitted in any form or by any means,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording or otherwise,without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited.While every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information,The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd.cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this report or any of the information,opinions or conclusions set out in this report.