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1、 Quarterly Air Transport Chartbook IATA Economics Q4 2022 2 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 Table of Content Glossary.3 I.The business cycle.4 II.Passenger and Cargo traffic.7 Passenger Traffic.7 Cargo traffic.12 III.Airline Financial Performance.16 Revenue.16 Cost.17 Industry financial results.18 IV.Re

2、gional Outlook.21 Africa and the Middle East.21 Americas.23 Asia Pacific.25 Europe.27 3 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 Glossary ACTKs Available Cargo Tonne-Kilometers ASKs Available Seat-Kilometers ASPAC Asia Pacific ATKs Available Tonne-Kilometers BLF Breakeven Load Factor CLF Cargo Load Factor CTKs C

3、argo Tonne-Kilometers FRT Freight Tonnes GDP Gross Domestic Product LF Load Factor MoM Month-on-month OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Passenger Traffic O-D Passenger Traffic Origin-Destination PAX Revenue Passengers PLF Passenger Load Factor RPKs Revenue Passenger-Kilometers R

4、TKs Revenue Tonne-Kilometers SA Seasonally adjusted USD United States Dollar WLF Weight Load Factor YoY Year-on-year 4 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 I.The Business Cycle We enter 2023 in a state that is characterized by the ramifications of the COVID-19-induced economic crisis.This was the deepest eco

5、nomic recession the world has suffered since the Great Depression,and it came on the heels of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis itself then the most severe recession since the Great Depression.Deep economic crises are disruptive,not only in economic terms but also in their effects on beliefs,attitude

6、s,and perceptions.Today,as in the interwar period,democracy is under pressure and globalization is in retreat.Attention is turning inwards and the geopolitical system grapples with war in Europe and nationalist ambitions.Technological innovation is extending the realm of possibilities,but politics d

7、efine the extent to which this can be leveraged upon a crucial issue in the face of climate change.At the current junction,these evolutions are likely to have a dampening effect on economic growth.Several,even as many as a third of the worlds countries,could suffer recessions in 2023.It is much more

8、 unlikely that we will experience yet another global recession.However,global GDP growth slowed sharply from the strong rebound of 6%in 2021 to close to 3.5%in 2022 and is likely to dip below 3%in 2023.Such a sharp slowdown undoubtedly feels recessionary to many people.China PR arguably holds the ke

9、y to the outcome for the world economy in 2023.If China PRs end to its zero-COVID policy and related lockdowns can overcome the resulting adverse health implications and lead to increased economic activity,it could compensate for much of the economic deceleration anticipated elsewhere.Exceptional la

10、bor market strength is a major factor in terms of reducing the risk of severe recessions.Many countries have record-low unemployment rates,notably in advanced economies.The US created 517,000 in January 2023,following a stunning average monthly gain of 401,000 in 2022,and the unemployment rate edged

11、 down to 3.4%,the lowest since 1969.It is difficult to imagine a recession in the US unless monthly job creation falls below 100000.Inflation,on the other hand,is a threat to the business cycle.With the decades high inflation seen in 2022,the general price level has increased,even if the pace of fur

12、ther price increases is set to slow in 2023.Purchasing power will be curtailed,dampening consumption and global trade.This is further exacerbated by currency depreciations versus the US dollar that range from significant to dramatic,in turn leading to higher imported inflation in a vicious cycle.Cou

13、ntries with currencies pegged to the US dollar will be constrained to conduct tighter monetary policies than their economies strictly speaking might warrant,and the scope for fiscal stimulus is limited as the world has accumulated the highest debt levels in history across sovereigns,corporates,and h

14、ouseholds.Structural reform would be the preferred action though this requires political clout,which is often absent.Attempts at reform might instead lead to protests and social unrest,and we witness,for example,the resistance to much needed pension reform in France.We provide an overview of our ass

15、essment of the risks we will likely face in 2023 in the risk matrix below.The knowable risk that would have the highest impact is that the US could default on its debt.The US has a fiscal rule which limits the amount of debt that the country can issue.Once that limit has been reached,the government

16、can still function for a period of time thanks to cash on hand and extraordinary measures.However,when the money runs out,the government risks defaulting on its debt obligations unless the debt ceiling is lifted.While there is a degree of habitual drama around this issue on an annual basis,it led to

17、 important crises in 2011 and 2013.The risk of another crisis in 2023 is greater than usual given the sharply divided Congress.The risk of an outright default,however,is still low,though were it to occur it would have cataclysmic consequences for the US and for global financial markets.5 Quarterly C

18、hartbook Q4 2022 The risk with the highest likelihood is that of high oil price volatility.Further oil price volatility is to be expected in 2023,notably as a result of the EU having prohibited EU vessels from transporting Russian crude oil(from 5 December 2022)and petroleum products(from 5 February

19、 2023)to third countries.Moreover,limited refining capacity will in all likelihood mean that the historically elevated crack spread between crude and jet fuel prices will be a feature of the market also in 2023.Nevertheless,the slowing global economy should have a dampening effect on average oil pri

20、ces.In sum,most of the headwinds from 2022 are likely to remain with us also in 2023,though on the whole they may be unlikely to intensify.This nevertheless implies that airlines will face elevated costs on virtually all fronts,arguably putting a floor under ticket prices.Passenger price sensitivity

21、 has been low so far since travel has again been possible,though it can be expected to rise as economies slow and unemployment rates climb again.The upside potential in our forecasts therefore looks capped,and the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside.The main positive surprises which coul

22、d produce significant upside in economic activity and air transportation would be an end to the war in Ukraine,and an end to all travel restrictions.Chart 1:%Growth rate of Gross domestic product(in constant prices)Chart 2:Inflation as Consumer Price Index(CPI),annual growth rate(%)-4-3-2-1012345672

23、000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026Source:IMF(October 2022 update)-202468101214Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19May-19Jul-19Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22CANDEUEU27_2020FRAG-20GBRI

24、TAJPNOECDUSASource:OECD 6 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 Chart 3:Unemployment rate between 2013 and 2024(%of Labor Force)Chart 4:Volume of world merchandise trade,2015-2022 Chart 5:Global debt as a percent of GDP Chart 6:How does your profitability performance in the last 3 and the next 12 months compa

25、re with the same period last year?Chart 7:Manufacturing output PMI Chart 8:Monetary,national security and recession uncertainties index and relative probability ratios 5.85.06.20.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024Global avgWorld:High incomeWorld:Low incomeWo

26、rld:Lower-middle incomeWorld:Upper-middle incomeSource:ILO Statistics November 2022120130140150160170180Seasonally-adjusted volume index,2005=100Source:WTO05010015020025030019701972197419761978198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014201620182020%of GDPPublic debtHouse

27、holdNonfinancial Corporate DebtTotalSource:IMF Global Debt Database 27%13%60%20%10%70%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Deterioration/DecreaseNo-changeImprovement/Increase%of RespondentsLast three monthsNext twelve monthsSource:IATA Business Confidence Survey(October 2022)20304050607080Jan-20Mar-20Ma

28、y-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22China(mainland)WorldUSSouth KoreaItalyGermany(50=no change)Source:Markit0123456789010203040506070809020182019202020212022Index(100=highest)Ratio(10=highest)Monetary policy uncertainty(left)National security

29、 policy uncertainty(left)Recession fear(left)Relative risk of new recession in G7economies(right)Source:IMF World Economic Outlook 7 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 II.Passenger and Cargo Traffic Passenger Traffic Industry-wide air passenger traffic,measured in revenue passenger-kilometers(RPKs),continu

30、ed its steady recovery in December 2022 and for the full year.Over the course of 2022,global air passenger travel gained momentum and recovered substantially as travel restrictions were removed and passengers expressed a strong willingness to fly.Passenger traffic recovered from 41.7%of 2019 volumes

31、 in 2021 to 68.5%in 2022(Chart 9,Chart 10).Propelled by pent-up demand and the reopening of air travel markets globally,route areas between Europe and various regions recovered swiftly in 2022(Chart 11).The recovery in Europes air passenger traffic was challenged early in 2022 by the surge in Omicro

32、n cases and later by the start of the war in Ukraine.Despite these headwinds,passenger travel between Europe and Central America recovered quickly,reflecting the surge in European holiday travelers that responded to the lifting of restrictions in the region.Strong pent-up demand also drove the incre

33、ase in passengers between Europe and North America.On the other hand,owing to remaining and new travel restrictions,passenger traffic on routes connecting various regions to Asia have been the slowest to recover.Globally,domestic RPKs increased 10.9%in 2022 compared to the prior year,while total int

34、ernational RPKs climbed 152.7%versus 2021.Despite the setbacks caused by lingering travel restrictions,international traffic took off significantly in 2022 wherever these restrictions were lifted.As a result,international RPKs surged from 26.8%of 2019 levels in 2021 to 62.2%in 2022.For December 2022

35、,international RPKs tracked 24.9%under the same month in 2019 and conserved momentum with steady performance from all regions(Chart 12).Over the past year,re-openings in many economies of the Asia Pacific region have allowed for passengers and airlines to return to the skies,greatly accelerating tra

36、ffic growth in both domestic and international markets.While international RPKs in December 2022 were 48.1%below their 2019 levels for this regions airlines,the recent relaxations of China PRs zero-COVID policies,and the reopening of air travel markets,support a positive outlook for the region in th

37、e months to come(Chart 12,Chart 14).At the industry level,passenger demand was met by offered seat capacity in 2022,as available seat-kilometers(ASKs)recovered to 71.9%of their 2019 levels(Chart 15),while maintaining industry-wide passenger load factors of 78.1%.Passenger load factors for 2022 were

38、only 3.9 percentage points(ppts)below the load factors achieved before the pandemic in 2019.Load factors reached 81%in December 2022 globally,climbing nearly 10 ppts from the same month in the previous year.The highest YoY increases in regional load factors for the month of December were recorded in

39、 the Asia Pacific,Middle East,and Europe regions,increasing approximately 16,14 and 12 ppts,respectively(Chart 16).8 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 Chart 9:Industry RPKs(monthly)Chart 10:Global RPKs from Jan 2020 to December 2022 Chart 11:Seasonally adjusted RPKs by Route Area Chart 12:International RP

40、Ks by region Chart 13:International RPKs by class type Chart 14:Seasonally adjusted domestic RPKs Chart 15:Industry ASKs(monthly)Chart 16:Passenger Load Factor(%of available seat kms,SA)02004006008001,0002017201820192020202120222023billionsActualSeasonally adjustedSource:IATA Monthly StatisticsIndus

41、try RPKs-23.1%Domestic RPKs-20.1%International RPKs-24.9%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Dec 2022vs.Dec 2019Source:IATA Monthly Statistics-100%-50%0%50%100%Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar

42、-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Indexed Jan 2020=100Africa-EuropeEurope-Central AmericaEurope-AsiaEurope-Middle EastEurope-North AmericaAsia-North AmericaAsia-SW PacificME-AsiaWithin EuropeWithin AsiaSource:IATA Monthly Statistics-50.4%-15.9%-14.8%-16.9%-20.0%-5.8%-26.

43、1%-48.1%-18.4%-16.3%-14.5%-14.2%-6.9%-24.9%-75%-65%-55%-45%-35%-25%-15%-5%5%change vs same month in 2019Dec 2022Nov 2022IndustryN.AmericaAfricaEuropeMiddle EastL.AmericaAsia PacificSource:IATA Monthly Statistics0%20%40%60%80%100%Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-2

44、1Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Source:IATA Monthly StatisticsShare of intl RPKs by classEconomy:92%Premium:8%EconomyPremium020406080100120Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Indexed to 100 in Jan 2020Source:IATA Monthly St

45、atisticsIndiaUSABrazilJapanAustraliaChina201202203204205206207208209201,020201720182019202020212022ActualSeasonally adjustedSources:IATA Economics,IATA Monthly StatisticsChart 14:Industry ASKs(billion per month)All time high*50%60%70%80%90%Dec 2022Dec 202181.1%84.2%83.6%80.0%78.5%77.2%76.9%71.4%79.5

46、%71.6%65.9%81.1%62.3%63.8%Sources:IATA Monthly StatisticsIndustryN.AmericaEuropeMiddle EastL.AmericaAsiaPacificAfrica 9 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 Global Origin-Destination(O-D)passenger traffic increased to 75%of pre-pandemic levels in July 2022(Chart 17).Although O-D passengers increased 31.6%YoY

47、 over the course of 2022,their share of 2019 traffic levels has mostly trended sideways since July.International ticket sales gradually caught up to domestic sales in 2022,owing to positive developments in international travel demand and the easing of travel restrictions in China PR(Chart 18).It is

48、noteworthy that international ticket sales improved also in July despite high energy prices,traffic disruptions,and other economic headwinds.The latest trends in both domestic and international ticket sales point to sustained activity levels over this winter period.Most air ticket sales are for trav

49、el in the near future,as passengers still perceive some degree of uncertainty when making travel arrangements.In 2022,88%of all tickets sold in the last quarter were for travel within four months,while 12%of ticket sales were for periods beyond four months from the purchase date(Chart 19).These resu

50、lts are more in line with what we saw in 2019,when 90%of all tickets sold in Q4 2019 were for travel within four months and only 10%of ticket sales were for travel beyond four months.Globally,we expect industry-wide passenger traffic to recover to their 2019 levels in 2024,and then grow at an annual

51、 average rate of around 3%over our forecast horizon.However,our forecast risks are skewed to the downside due to various headwinds in the near term.These risks include a prolonged war in Europe,high jet fuel prices,elevated general price levels,and slowing growth in the global economy(Chart 20).Airl

52、ines faced uneven outcomes in 2022.North American carriers led the industry recovery by achieving close-to pre-pandemic passenger traffic levels,with total RPKs 11.3%below their 2019 volumes,followed by Latin American and European carriers at 14.2%and 22.2%,respectively.We also anticipate the recove

53、ry and near-term growth of passenger traffic will vary across regions.North Americas traffic is forecast to recover to 2019 levels in 2023,followed by Latin America,the Middle East and Europe in 2024,and by Africa and Asia Pacific in 2025(Chart 21).Chart 17:Passenger Traffic(O-D)and%share of 2019 Ch

54、art 18:Passenger ticket sales,7-day moving average 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%020406080100120140160180Millions%share of 2019Pax%shareSource:IATA Economics based on DDS dataDomesticInternational0%20%40%60%80%100%120%Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22

55、Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23%of 2019Source:IATA Economics based on data from DDS 10 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 Chart 19:Ticket sales in Q4 each year for forward travel Chart 20:Global passengers,billions Chart 21:Passenger traffic forecast and estimated year of recovery to 2019 levels Estimated year of

56、 recovery to 2019 passenger traffic levels Africa Asia Pacific Europe Latin America&Caribbean Middle East North America World 2025 2025 2024 2024 2024 2023 2024 Global Air Connectivity Air transport is vital for the modern economy.It provides the city-pair connections that serve as virtual bridges s

57、upporting the flows of goods and people between markets.As the only rapid global transportation network,air transport facilitates links between businesses,governments and people enabling world trade,investment,tourism and travel among other key economic activities.Increased connectivity drives impro

58、ved economic outcomes for countries and communities.By December 2022,IATAs Global Air Connectivity Index,which measures connectivity as scheduled passenger capacity weighed by the relative economic scale of destinations served,had recovered to 74%of pre-pandemic levels for international connectivity

59、 and 87%for domestic connectivity(Chart 22).While the number of domestic airport pairs served has returned to pre-pandemic levels,only 85%of international airport pairs have been restored(Chart 23)and the recovery in international flight frequency,which is particularly important for business travell

60、ers,lags further behind at 77%of pre-pandemic levels.Travel restrictions have lingered longer in the Asia Pacific region,notably in China PR,dampening the recovery in international connectivity for that region to 52%of 2019 levels.This recovery lags significantly behind that seen in all other region

61、s,which ranged from 82%in Europe and 84%in North America to 102%in Latin America&Caribbean(Chart 25).89.7%93.9%91.2%88.3%10.3%6.1%8.8%11.7%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2019202020212022%of totalTravel in less than 4 monthsTravel beyond 4 monthsSource:IATA Economics based on data from DDS01234562010201220142

62、0162018202020222024Range of uncertaintyNew baseline forecastPre-COVID19 baseline forecast2019 level recovered by 2024Source:IATA/Tourism Economics020406080100120140Asia PacificEuropeMiddle EastAfricaNorth AmericaLatin America&Caribb.Index.2019=100202020212022202320242025Source:IATA/Tourism Economics

63、 11 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 Further restoration of international air connectivity will help support the recovery of economic benefits associated with air transport for countries heavily affected by the pandemic.It is particularly vital for regions that are highly dependent on international touri

64、sm receipts and trade.Chart 22:IATA Global Air Connectivity Index,Jan 2020-Dec 2022 Chart 23:Global airport pairs,monthly Jan 2020-Dec 2022 Chart 24:City pairs and real transport cost Chart 25:Recovery in international connectivity by region in Dec 2022 Proportion of global international connectivit

65、y contributed by each region Source:IATA Economics based on data from OAG Domestic86.6International73.70.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0Dec-19Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Oct-20Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Source:IATA Connectivity Index using data from DDSDome

66、stic100.2International84.50.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0Dec-19Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Oct-20Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22Dec-22Source:IATA Connectivity Index using data from DDS0 10 30 60 20 40 50 70 80 90 100 Asia Pacific Europe Africa North America 84%Midd

67、le East 102%Latin America&Caribbean Dec 2019 level 100%52%82%93%97%12 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 Cargo Traffic Global air cargo demand,measured by cargo tonne-kilometers(CTKs),continued to decline year-on-year(YoY)in the fourth quarter of 2022,falling 15.3%YoY in December.This was the tenth YoY con

68、traction in a row in industry CTKs since March 2022.Over the course of 2022,global air cargo demand was 8.0%below the outstanding performance in 2021 but still tracked close to the pre-COVID level in 2019,with only a 1.6%contraction.Industry-wide international CTKs fell by 15.8%YoY in December,contr

69、acting further from the previous months 14.2%YoY decline.In the last quarter of 2022,the air cargo industry did not perform as well as expected in a traditional peak season for cargo due to multiple headwinds in the current global economy(Chart 26,Chart 27).Inflation remains high,curtailing the spen

70、ding capacity of households.The ongoing war in Ukraine disrupts trade flows,and the unusual strength of the US dollar makes commodities traded in US dollars more expensive in local currency terms.Industry air cargo capacity,measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers(ACTKs),also contracted by 2.2%Y

71、oY in December,marking the third month in a row of YoY contraction.Similarly,seasonally-adjusted ACTKs in December were 2.1%lower than the same month in 2021(Chart 28).However,for the full year of 2022,global ACTKs were 3.0%above levels in 2021,but 8.2%below 2019 levels.Airlines reduced air cargo ca

72、pacity to respond to the supply imbalance that has emerged as demand has fallen YoY since March 2022.With the strong recovery of passenger air transport,international belly cargo capacity from passenger carriers maintained its consecutive monthly growth since April 2021.In contrast,international car

73、go capacity provided by dedicated freighters experienced slight YoY contractions in the fourth quarter of 2022(Chart 29).With respect to regional cargo activities,North America and Africa remained the only two regions that have achieved higher air cargo demand,both in terms of total CTKs and interna

74、tional CTKs(seasonally adjusted),compared to pre-pandemic levels(Charts 30 and 32).Latin America sustained its lead in the YoY growth of annual total CTKs among all regions in 2022(Chart 31)and achieved a 2.3%YoY growth in its international CTKs in December(Chart 33).All other regions saw negative Y

75、oY growth in international air cargo activity in December,contrasting their outstanding performance in 2021(Chart 33).The industry cargo load factor(CLF)in 2022 was 50.1%,dropping 6 percentage points(ppts)compared with the level in 2021 but still 3.3 ppts higher than the pre-COVID level in 2019.Inte

76、rnational CLF declined by 7.8 ppts YoY in 2022,falling from 63.9%to 56.1%.Europe saw the highest international CLF(SA)of 57%in December,while Latin America had the lowest CLF at 41%(Chart 34).Global new export orders a component of the purchasing managers index(PMI)and a leading indicator for air ca

77、rgo shipments remained below the critical 50(no change)line for major economies(Chart 36).Global export orders have stayed at the same level since October,suggesting sustained deceleration on average.Germanys export orders continued to improve in December,signaling a degree of normalization after th

78、e months-long impact of the war in Ukraine.Other major economies that showed slight improvements in their export orders in December were the US and Japan,while South Korea and China PR registered lower new export orders in December compared to November.13 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 Chart 26:Industr

79、y CTKs(billions per month)Chart 27:Global CTKs from Jan 2020 to Dec 2022 Chart 28:Industry ACTKs(billions)Chart 29:Growth of international ACTKs by cargo type Chart 30:Annual total CTKs by region Chart 31:%Year-on-year growth in annual total CTKs by region Chart 32:Seasonally adjusted monthly intern

80、ational CTKs Chart 33:International CTKs by airline region of registration 10111213141516171819202122232425201720182019202020212022ActualSeasonally adjustedSources:IATA Monthly Statistics-7.4%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21

81、Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22%change vs 2019Dec 2022vsDec 2019Source:IATA Monthly Statistics20253035404550Jan-17Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22ActualSeasonally adjustedSources:IATA Month

82、ly Statisticsbillion-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22%YoYDedicated FreightersPassenger BellyTotal International TrafficSource:IATA Economics0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%share of industry tota

83、l CTKs Asia PacificNorth AmericaEuropeMiddle EastLatin AmericaAfricaSource:Source:IATA Monthly Statistics-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022%year-on-yearAfricaAsia PacificEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle EastNorth AmericaIndustrySource:IATA Monthly StatisticsA

84、fricaAsia PacificEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle EastNorth America5060708090100110120130140150Seasonally adjusted international CTKs(indexed,100 in Jan 2020)Source:IATA Monthly Statistics-17.8%-16.7%-13.6%-6.5%-7.0%8.0%-13.9%-20.4%-17.9%-14.4%-10.0%-8.5%2.3%-15.8%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%Dec 2022Nov 2022

85、%year on yearIndustryL.AmericaN.AmericaAfricaMiddle EastEuropeSources:IATA Economics,IATA Monthly StatisticsAsia Pacific 14 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 Chart 34:International air cargo load factors(SA)Chart 35:CTK growth versus global new export orders Chart 36:Country specific PMI new export orders

86、 Chart 37:Global trade,industrial production and CTKs Volumes of global industrial production and cross-border trade remained above their pre-COVID levels,although cross-border trade has been declining since September 2022.In contrast,global CTKs have decoupled from their historially close connectio

87、ns with industrial production and trade,marked by their steaper decline in the fourth quarter of 2022(Chart 37).Both the monthly and yearly YoY growth rates suggest that air cargo is affected by the shrinking global trade more severely than maritime transport,with air cargos relative performance com

88、pared with maritime down to-12%in 2022(Chart 38,Chart 39).Our Business Confidence Survey of airline Heads of Cargo shows that the industrys outlook remains positive for the next twelve months,with 58%of respondents expecting an improvement in cargo operations,and only 31%expecting a decrease(Chart 4

89、0).The weighted score of business confidence for the next three months reads 57.7 and slightly higher for the next twelve months at 63.5(Chart 41).Chart 38:Growth in industry CTKs and global merchandise trade,monthly Chart 39:Growth in global trade and industry-wide CTKs,yearly 0%20%40%60%80%100%Jan

90、-19Mar-19May-19Jul-19Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22AfricaASPACEuropeLATAMMiddle EastNorth AmericaGlobalSource:IATA Monthly Statistics-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%70%90%2008200920102011

91、201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023%YoY growthIndustry CTKs(RHS)Global PMI new export orders component(LHS)Sources:IATA Monthly Statistics,Markit%YoY growth152025303540455055606570GermanyJapanChinaUSKoreaGlobal50=no change,seasonally adjustedSource:Markit707580859095100105110Volumes,ind

92、exed to equal 100 in January 2019Source:IATA Economics using data from Netherlands CPB,IATA Monthly StatisticsGlobal industrialproductionCross-bordertradeGlobal CTKs(Seasonally-adjusted)-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Jan-17Apr-17Jul-17Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-

93、20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22%YoY growthIndustry-wide CTKsGlobal goods tradeRelative performance of air cargo growthSources:IATA Statistics,Netherlands CPB-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

94、%YoY growthIndustry-wide CTKsGlobal goods tradeSources:IATA Monthly Statistics,Netherlands CPB *average of monthly data.2021 excludes Nov-Dec Relativeperformance of air cargo growth 15 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 Chart 40:How does cargo operations in the last three months compare with the same perio

95、d last year and how do you expect them to change over the next twelve months?Chart 41:How did your cargo operations in the last three months compare with the same period last year and how do you expect them to change over the next 12 months?31%23%46%31%12%58%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Deterior

96、ation/DecreaseNo-changeImprovement/Increase%of RespondentsLast three monthsNext twelve monthsSource:IATA Business Confidence Survey(October 2022)0102030405060708090100Oct 2009Apr 2010Oct 2010Apr 2011Oct 2011Apr 2012Oct 2012Apr 2013Oct 2013Apr 2014Oct 2014Apr 2015Oct 2015Apr 2016Oct 2016Apr 2017Oct 2

97、017Apr 2018Oct 2018Apr 2019Oct 2019Apr 2020Oct 2020Apr 2021Oct 2021Apr 2022Oct 2022Last three monthsNext twelve monthsWeighted Score (50=No Change)Source:IATA Business Confidence Survey(October 2022)16 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 III.Airline Financial Performance Airline financial performance contin

98、ues to recover from the massive losses recorded in 2020 and our latest forecast suggests that profitability will return to the industry overall this year.However,this profitability is not likely to be shared evenly across regions,with only North America,Europe and Middle East carriers expected to po

99、st a net post-tax profit in 2023.The broadly positive industry outlook is supported by our latest Business Confidence survey where 70%of respondents indicated that they expect year-ahead profitability to exceed current levels.Revenue Over the course of 2022,the mixed performance of the passenger and

100、 cargo markets is reflected in the respective revenue performance.The decline in cargo volumes is expected to have resulted in a modest decline in cargo revenue in 2022,albeit from the COVID-driven high.This comes despite a further increase in cargo yields over the year.With the recovery in passenge

101、r volumes particularly the international markets continuing apace in 2022,passenger revenue has increased sharply,rising by an estimated 80%.This revenue performance has been supported by higher passenger yields,although much of the yield increase has to do with the significant increase in airlines

102、costs(see further below)over the year.Looking ahead,we expect passenger revenue to increase further in 2023,albeit to remain considerably below its pre-COVID level,at around 85%versus 2019.Cargo revenue on the other hand,is likely to continue to retreat from its COVID-induced highs.Cargo yields are

103、likely to fall substantially from their current highs,partly driven by the increase in belly capacity which accompanies the recovery in passenger volumes.Even so,cargo revenue is currently forecast to be around 50%higher than the level of 2019.Overall,airline revenue is forecast to rise to around 93

104、%of its 2019 level in 2023.The cargo share of total revenue will ease further to around 20%.Having peaked at an historical high share of 40%in 2021,this moderation will nonetheless leave the cargo share considerably above the pre-COVID share of 10-12%.As such,air cargo is expected to continue to pla

105、y an important role in bolstering airline revenue and financial performance over the period ahead.IATAs airline business confidence survey confirms that passenger fares have been rising,however,the evolution over the past 3 months is seen to have been more positive than the outlook over the coming 1

106、2 months(Chart 44,45).One the cargo side,the picture is less optimistic.A sizeable 43%of respondents expect cargo rates will decline over the year ahead,with a further 39%expecting no change(Chart 46,47).17 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 Chart 42:Breakeven and achieved cargo and passenger LF Chart 43:P

107、assenger and cargo yields Chart 44:How do your pax operations fares perform in the last 3 months and next 12 months compare with the same period last year?Chart 45:How do your pax operations fares perform in the last 3 months and next 12 months compare with the same period last year?Chart 46:How do

108、your cargo operations fares perform in the last 3 months and next 12 months compare with the same period last year?Chart 47:How do your cargo operations fares perform in the last 3 months and next 12 months compare with the same period last year?Cost Airline costs have risen substantially over 2022.

109、An important driver of this has been the conflict between Russia and Ukraine which delivered a sharp lift in global commodity prices.The Brent crude oil price increased by around 40%in 2022 compared with 2021,averaging almost USD 100 per barrel.In addition,a lack of refining capacity resulted in a w

110、idening in the jet crack spread(the difference between the crude oil and jet fuel price).The jet fuel price increased from USD 78 in 2021 to USD 139 in 2022 an increase of almost 80%(Chart 48).With fuel currently accounting for around 25-30%of airline operating costs,this has been a key driver of th

111、e increase in airfares and passenger yields over the course of the year.Higher 5860626466687072747678200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023%ATKsAchieved load factorBreakeven load factorSource:IATA Financial Monitor020406080100120140160180200I

112、ndex,2010=100CargoPassengerSource:IATA Financial Forecast(December 2022)19.0%28.6%52.4%18.2%36.4%45.5%0%20%40%60%80%100%Deterioration/DecreaseNo-changeImprovement/IncreaseLast three monthsNext twelve months%of RespondentsSource:IATA Business Confidence Survey (October 2022)0102030405060708090100Oct

113、2009Apr 2010Oct 2010Apr 2011Oct 2011Apr 2012Oct 2012Apr 2013Oct 2013Apr 2014Oct 2014Apr 2015Oct 2015Apr 2016Oct 2016Apr 2017Oct 2017Apr 2018Oct 2018Apr 2019Oct 2019Apr 2020Oct 2020Apr 2021Oct 2021Apr 2022Oct 2022Weighted Score (50=No Change)Last three monthsNext twelve monthsSource:IATA Business Con

114、fidence Survey(October 2022)35%38%27%43%39%18%0%20%40%60%80%100%Deterioration/DecreaseNo-changeImprovement/IncreaseLast three monthsNext twelve months%of RespondentsSource:IATA Business Confidence Survey(October 2022)0102030405060708090100Oct 2009Apr 2010Oct 2010Apr 2011Oct 2011Apr 2012Oct 2012Apr 2

115、013Oct 2013Apr 2014Oct 2014Apr 2015Oct 2015Apr 2016Oct 2016Apr 2017Oct 2017Apr 2018Oct 2018Apr 2019Oct 2019Apr 2020Oct 2020Apr 2021Oct 2021Apr 2022Oct 2022Weighted Score (50=No Change)Last three monthsNext twelve monthsSource:IATA Business Confidence Survey(Octobert 2022)18 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 20

116、22 fuel prices,however,also focus airline attention on improving fuel efficiency both via operational decisions and investing in fleet renewal(Chart 49).For many airlines,the appreciation of the US dollar,reflecting safe-haven capital flows in response to the geopolitical uncertainty,has added to US

117、 dollar denominated costs,including fuel.Higher interest rates and in some markets the rise in labor and other input costs represent additional headwinds for the industry as it strives to return to profitability.Costs are expected to remain a challenge for airlines over the year ahead.Although oil p

118、rices and the crack spread are likely to ease from their 2022 level,we anticipate that they will remain elevated in 2023.This appears to be a view shared by airlines fully 70%of respondents to our latest Business Confidence survey have experienced an increase in input costs over the past three month

119、s and 60%expect further increases over the year ahead(Chart 50,51).Clearly,cost-vigilance will remain a focus for the industry over this period.Chart 48:Jet Fuel&Crude Oil Price Chart 49:Fuel efficiency and the price of jet fuel Chart 50:How does your unit costs perform in the last 3 and the next 12

120、 months compare with the same period Chart 51:How does your unit costs perform in the last 3 and the next 12 months compare with the same period year?Industry financial results At the global level,the strong industry financial recovery remains underway,notwithstanding the various challenges and head

121、winds.Following the massive net loss of almost USD 140 billion in 2020,the industry loss narrowed to around USD 40 billion in 2021.The recovery has continued in 2022,with the net losses shrinking further to an estimated USD 7 billion.In 2023 we expect the industry to post a net profit,albeit 1535557

122、595115135155175195Jan-16May-16Sep-16Jan-17May-17Sep-17Jan-18May-18Sep-18Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23($/barrel)Jet Fuel PriceCrude Oil Price(Brent)Source:S&P Global,Refinitiv Eikon25303540455055020406080100120140160200020012002200320042005200620072008

123、200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Litres fuel used per 100 RTKUS$per barrelFuel use/100 RTKJet fuel priceSource:S&P Global,Refinitiv Eikon,IEA17%13%70%13%27%60%0%20%40%60%80%100%Deterioration/DecreaseNo-changeImprovement/IncreaseLast three monthsNext twelve months%of Respon

124、dentsSource:IATA Business Confidence Survey(October2022)0102030405060708090100Oct 2009Apr 2010Oct 2010Apr 2011Oct 2011Apr 2012Oct 2012Apr 2013Oct 2013Apr 2014Oct 2014Apr 2015Oct 2015Apr 2016Oct 2016Apr 2017Oct 2017Apr 2018Oct 2018Apr 2019Oct 2019Apr 2020Oct 2020Apr 2021Oct 2021Apr 2022Oct 2022Weight

125、ed Score (50=No Change)Last three monthsNext twelve monthsSource:IATA Business Confidence Survey(October 2022)19 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 only just,at USD 4.7 billion(Chart 52).On total revenue of around USD 780 billion this represents a slender margin of just 0.6%,or just one dollar per passenge

126、r(Chart 53).Airlines financial performance is improving across all regions in 2022 and 2023,led by the North American carriers.However,only North American airlines are estimated to have generated a net profit in 2022.For 2023,European and Middle East carriers are forecast to join their North America

127、n counterparts in a net profit position(Chart 54).Despite the concerns regarding the industrys cost pressures,airlines are relatively upbeat regarding their own profit outlooks;60%have seen an improved financial performance over the past three months and a significant 70%expect their profitability t

128、o improve over the coming 12 months(Chart 58,59).This rather positive outlook is expected to be driven by the passenger segment,where optimism for stronger performance over the year ahead is much higher than for cargo.The industry recovery over 2022 has helped to support investor confidence in the s

129、ector-although airline share prices fell by almost 12%in 2022,they have outperformed the overall global share price index which by lost almost 20%(Table 1).Chart 52:Airline industry net profits and EBIT margin Chart 53:Global airlines revenue,by type Chart 54:Airline region operating margin,%revenue

130、 Chart 55:EBIT margins by region -40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022-160-140-120-100-80-60-40-200204060Net post-tax profitEBIT marginSource:IATA Economic Performance of the Airline IndustryNet profit,USD billionEBIT margin,%01002003004

131、00500600700800900201520162017201820192020202120222023USD billionPassenger revenuesCargo revenues2021:60%of 2019 2023:93%of 2019 2022:87%of 2019 Source:IATA Financial Forecast(December 2022)-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%N AmericaEuropeAsia PacificMiddle EastL AmericaAfrica%revenues202120222023Source

132、:IATA Financial Forecast(December 2022)N AmericaEuropeAsia PacificMiddle EastL AmericaAfrica-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023%of revenuesSource:IATA Financial Forecast(December 2022)20 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 Chart 56:Aircraft deliveries and air

133、line industry ROIC Chart 57:Return on invested capital vs industry-average WACC Chart 58:How does your profitability in the last three months compare with the same period last year?Chart 59:How does your profitability in the last three months compare with the same period last year?Chart 60:IATA surv

134、ey of airline CFOS and Heads of cargo Table 1:Airline Share Prices Table 2:Key forecasts and assumptions ROIC EBIT margin Net post-tax profits Spend on air transport Passengers RPK CTK World GDP World trade%invested capital%revenue USD billion USD billion Billion Billion Billion%YoY%YoY 2019 5.8%5.2

135、%26.4 876 4543 8688 254 2.5%0.3%2020-19.3%-29%-137.7 394 1807 2974 229-3.5%-5.1%2021-0.8%-8.9%-42 521 2185 3623 272 5.8%9.8%2022e-1.7%-1.3%-6.9 754 3424 6136 250 2.9%3.5%2023f 0.6%0.4%4.7 812 4189 7430 240 1.3%1.0%-25-20-15-10-5051040050060070080090010001100120013001400150016001700180019002000200120

136、02200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023ROIC as%invested capitalNumber of aircraft deliveredAircraft deliveriesAirlines ROICSource:IATA Financial Forecast(December 2022)-25-20-15-10-505101520082010201220142016201820202022%of invested capitalCost of capit

137、al(WACC)Return on invested capital(ROIC)Source:IATA Financial Forecast(December 2022)27%13%60%20%10%70%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Deterioration/DecreaseNo-changeImprovement/Increase%of RespondentsLast three monthsNext twelve monthsSource:IATA Business Confidence Survey(October 2022)01020304050

138、60708090100Jan 2009Oct 2009Jul 2010Apr 2011Jan 2012Oct 2012Jul 2013Apr 2014Jan 2015Oct 2015Jul 2016Apr 2017Jan 2018Oct 2018Jul 2019Apr 2020Jan 2021Oct 2021Jul 2022Weighted Score (50=No Change)Last three monthsNext twelve monthsSource:IATA Business Confidence Survey(October2022)0102030405060708090100

139、Oct 2009Apr 2010Oct 2010Apr 2011Oct 2011Apr 2012Oct 2012Apr 2013Oct 2013Apr 2014Oct 2014Apr 2015Oct 2015Apr 2016Oct 2016Apr 2017Oct 2017Apr 2018Oct 2018Apr 2019Oct 2019Apr 2020Oct 2020Apr 2021Oct 2021Apr 2022Oct 202250=no changeLast three monthsNext twelve monthsCargo services growth expected in the

140、 next 12 monthsPassenger services growth expectedin the next 12 monthsSource:IATA Business Confidence Survey(October 2022)Index US$indices(Jan 2014=100)Dec 30thone monthone yearstart of yearWorld airlines79.0-2.4%-11.7%-35.6%Asia Pacific airlines73.63.1%-4.3%-33.7%European airlines66.51.4%-7.3%-35.2

141、%North American 90.7-12.0%-19.3%-40.7%FTSE All World$155.0-3.9%-19.5%32.9%change on5080110140170200201420152016201720182019202020212022FTSE All World$World airlines$Index(Jan 2014=100)Source:Thomson Reuters Datastream 21 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 IV.Regional Outlook Africa and the Middle East Pass

142、enger traffic carried by African and Middle Eastern airlines increased rapidly through the end of 2022.With year-on-year(YoY)RPK growth rates of 108%and 65%,respectively,the Africa and the Middle East regions recovered their passenger volumes faster than all other regions of the world.As of December

143、,airlines in the two regions have recovered 88%and 84%of their 2019 passenger traffic levels,respectively(Chart 61).The strong traffic recovery in the regions can be attributed mostly to international passenger travel on African carriers,whose RPKs grew by 24%from November to December,and more than

144、doubled from December 2021 levels(Chart 62).Airlines in the Middle East registered a 70%YoY growth in international passenger traffic in December.Air cargo traffic carried by African and Middle Eastern airlines led the recovery to pre-pandemic levels at the beginning of 2021.The momentum slowed in 2

145、022,and cargo traffic for the two regions carriers ended at 94%and 89%of their 2019 levels in December,respectively(Chart 63).Ticket sales in the Middle East stabilized during the last quarter of 2022,hovering around 80%of pre-pandemic levels and slightly above the global average,partially boosted b

146、y the World Cup that was hosted in Qatar.Ticket sales in Africa have also caught up to the global average,closing the gap between the two regions(Chart 64).In Q4 2022,Egypt and Nigeria both saw their passenger traffic perform more than 20%above pre-pandemic levels.Qatars traffic increased nearly 40%

147、YoY over the same period,boosted by travelers attending the first World Cup hosted in the Arab world.However,passenger volumes in South Africa,Iran and Kuwait are still more than 10%below their pre-pandemic levels as of Q4 2022(Chart 65).Reflecting strong growth in December,airlines in Africa and th

148、e Middle East recorded the highest YoY change in terms of passenger capacity,growing 73%and 36%,respectively,over their December 2021 capacity,and achieving more than 80%of their pre-pandemic capacity.Passenger load factors have also been improving in the regions.In 2022,load factors reached 77%and

149、80%for Africa and Middle East airlines,respectively,up more than 10 percentage points compared to 2021 load factors.Aircraft deliveries in the Middle East maintained their steady growth in 2022,reflecting the regions optimism for passenger demand recovery.In Africa,deliveries stabilized by the end o

150、f 2022,after declining in 2021(Chart 66).22 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 Chart 61:Growth in RPKs by region Chart 62:Growth in international RPKs(%YoY)Chart 63:Growth in CTKs by region Chart 64:Ticket sales by region(7-day moving average)Chart 65:Passenger traffic(O-D)by country in Q4 2022 Chart 66:Ai

151、rcraft deliveries in 2018-22 -43.5%-16.0%-13.5%-12.2%-10.5%-8.2%-23.1%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%AsiaPacificMiddleEastEuropeAfricaLatinAmericaNorthAmericaIndustry%change in Dec 2022 vs Dec 2019Source:IATA Monthly Statistics59.3%45.8%70.5%84.6%83.5%375.0%85.5%37.0%46.5%61.3%69.8%118.8%302.7%80.2%0%50%100%

152、150%200%250%300%350%Dec 2022Nov 2022%YoYIndustryAsia PacificAfricaMiddle EastN.AmericaEuropeL.AmericaSources:IATA Monthly Statistics-15%-13%-11%-6%-3%11%-7%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%AsiaPacificEuropeMiddleEastAfricaLatinAmericaNorthAmericaIndustry%change in Dec 2022 vs Dec 2019Source:IATA Monthly Sta

153、tisticsAfricaMiddle EastGlobal0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22%change vs the same month in 2019 Source:IATA Economics based on data from DDS 3%20%-4%-14%4%3%-12%7%21%39%5%-21%-4%4%-40%-20%0%20%40%60

154、%change in Q4 2022 vs Q42019Middle EastAfricaSource:IATA Economics based on DDS data02040608010012014020152016201720182019202020212022Aircrafts deliveredAfricaMiddle EastSource:IATA Economics using data from Cirium Fleet World share1RPKASKPLF(%-pt)2PLF(level)3RPKASKPLF(%-pt)2PLF(level)3TOTAL MARKET1

155、00.0%-23.1%-22.1%-1.1%81.1%39.7%23.0%9.7%81.1%Africa1.9%-12.2%-17.4%4.6%76.9%108.0%72.5%13.1%76.9%Middle East6.6%-16.0%-18.9%2.7%80.0%65.1%35.9%14.1%80.0%December 2022(%ch vs the same month in 2019)December 2022(%year-on-year)23 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 Americas North America and Latin America co

156、ntinued showing a strong recovery pattern among all regions globally.For December 2022,RPKs in North America recovered to 91.8%of their 2019 levels and Latin America followed shortly behind,recovering to 89.5%of their 2019 RPKs(Chart 67).Passenger traffic in North America increased by 1.8%in the las

157、t quarter of 2022,compared with the previous quarter,led by the continued traffic recovery in the United States(US).Total RPKs in the US climbed 5 percentage points in Q4 2022,reaching 97%of pre-COVID levels in November 2022.Canadas passenger traffic recovery has also been strong since the Q2 2022,g

158、rowing 9 percentage points in the fourth quarter and achieving nearly 96%of pre-pandemic RPKs in November 2022.Forward-looking ticket sales also indicate continued growth in passenger numbers for December,surpassing 2019 levels for the same month by around 2%(Chart 70).The Latin American markets too

159、 saw passenger traffic grow through the end of 2022,achieving nearly 90%of their pre-pandemic RPKs.Both domestic and international markets in the region have maintained their passenger traffic growth.Some countries,including Colombia,Mexico,and Ecuador,have exceeded their 2019 traffic levels.In the

160、case of Colombia,the countrys tourism policies,depreciated currency,and limited travel restrictions have allowed this market to outperform 2019 traffic levels in 2022.Ecuador has also seen a remarkable recovery in 2022,in part thanks to the government reducing taxes(ISD,EcoDelta and Potencia Turisti

161、ca),which supported the aviation industry and created a more competitive market.As a result,traffic stood 9%above 2019 levels in Q4 2022(Chart 71).On the other hand,the larger aviation markets in the region(Brazil,Chile,and Argentina)have been heavily impacted by inflation,currency depreciation,and

162、slow economic recovery.Nevertheless,in Argentina,for example,inbound tourism has been boosted by the cheaper currency,partly offsetting the industrys latest headwinds.Some Caribbean states have also seen notable recoveries of their passenger traffic.Flexible operating conditions enabled the Dominica

163、n Republic,Colombia,Mexico,and Ecuador to exceed their pre-pandemic passenger traffic levels in Q4 2022.The Dominican Republic recorded the largest increase in passenger traffic in the region,surpassing pre-pandemic levels by 26%in the 4th quarter.These recovery trends can be attributed to the stron

164、g performance of the Canadian and US markets,as well as the birth and expansion of Arajet,the new airline operation from Santo Domingo mainly to Latin America.However,passenger flows to/from Cuba are still lagging in the recovery(Chart 71).Cargo traffic transported by the regions carriers was less a

165、ffected by the pandemic and has stayed close to or above its pre-pandemic levels.In December 2022,CTKs in Northern America stood 11%above the same month in 2019.This outcome may be attributed to the consolidation of the cargo processes in the United States for cargo flights to the Caribbean,Central,

166、and South America,which were active markets during the pandemic(Chart 69).As the cargo business evolved during the pandemic,the possibility of retrofitting passenger aircraft for cargo operations,and the high revenue generated in the air cargo market,drove many airlines in the region(LATAM Airlines,

167、Air Canada,and Wingo)to increase their cargo capacity,showing a strong recovery also over the past few months.As of December 2022,Latin American airlines CTKs were only 3%below their pre-pandemic levels.Aircraft deliveries in the Americas have been improving,especially for North American carriers wh

168、ich increased their deliveries by 40%compared to 2021(Chart 72).Also,during 2022,Latin American carriers saw aircraft deliveries rise by 30%versus 2021.Confidence in this part of the industry and in this region is strong,and countries such as the Dominican Republic and Colombia have seen new airline

169、s(e.g.,Arajet and Ultra Air)entering the market,all of which contributed to the positive evolution of the recovery.24 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 Chart 67:Growth in RPKs by region Chart 68:Growth in international RPKs(%YoY)Chart 69:Growth in CTKs by region Chart 70:Ticket sales by regions(7-day movi

170、ng average)Chart 71:Passenger traffic(O-D)by country in Q4 2022 Chart 72:Aircraft deliveries in 2018-22 -43.5%-16.0%-13.5%-12.2%-10.5%-8.2%-23.1%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%AsiaPacificMiddleEastEuropeAfricaLatinAmericaNorthAmericaIndustry%change in Dec 2022 vs Dec 2019Source:IATA Monthly Statistics59.3%45

171、.8%70.5%84.6%83.5%375.0%85.5%37.0%46.5%61.3%69.8%118.8%302.7%80.2%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%Dec 2022Nov 2022%YoYIndustryAsia PacificAfricaMiddle EastN.AmericaEuropeL.AmericaSources:IATA Monthly Statistics-15%-13%-11%-6%-3%11%-7%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%AsiaPacificEuropeMiddleEastAfricaLatinAmeric

172、aNorthAmericaIndustry%change in Dec 2022 vs Dec 2019Source:IATA Monthly StatisticsSouth and Central AmericaNorth AmericaGlobal0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22%change vs the same month in 2019 So

173、urce:IATA Economics based on DDS data-8%-11%-10%-11%17%-8%-42%26%9%-1%11%-1%-5%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%change in Q4 2022 vs Q4 2019North AmericaLatin AmericaSource:IATA Economics based on DDS data05010015020025030035040045020152016201720182019202020212022Aircrafts deliveredLatin AmericaNorth AmericaSour

174、ce:IATA Economics using data from Cirium Fleet AnalyzerWorld share1RPKASKPLF(%-pt)2PLF(level)3RPKASKPLF(%-pt)2PLF(level)3TOTAL MARKET100.0%-23.1%-22.1%-1.1%81.1%39.7%23.0%9.7%81.1%Latin America6.5%-10.5%-6.2%-3.8%78.5%16.2%20.0%-2.6%78.5%North America32.6%-8.2%-6.9%-1.3%84.2%18.4%11.8%4.7%84.2%Decem

175、ber 2022(%ch vs the same month in 2019)December 2022(%year-on-year)25 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 Asia Pacific The recovery in passenger traffic in the Asia Pacific region is significantly behind all other regions.In December 2022,RPKs of airlines in the region were down 43.5%compared to December 20

176、19 levels(Chart 73),mostly as a result of China PRs remaining international and domestic travel restrictions.While the country has since opened its borders,restrictions imposed by other countries on travelers from China PR could delay the regions traffic recovery further.International RPKs in the re

177、gion grew by more than 300%in November and December 2022,compared to the same months in 2021(Chart 74).However,this recovery is from the very low traffic base seen in 2021,and the regions international RPKs remained far behind other regions in 2022,at only 51.9%of 2019 levels.Cargo traffic in the As

178、ia Pacific region saw a 21%YoY decrease in December 2022 and is now 15%below its pre-pandemic level(Chart 75),putting the region behind other regions also in this respect.Airlines in the region continue to be impacted by disruptions to trade,manufacturing,and supply chains due to pandemic-related ch

179、allenges in China PR.Ticket sales in the region have been below the global average since the second half of 2021,reflecting the slower reopening of borders in the region(Chart 76).Looking at the traffic levels by country,the Greater China region lags behind other economies in the Asia Pacific region

180、 as a result of restrictive travel policies.This is particularly the case for Hong Kong(SAR),which has no domestic traffic of its own.Japan,the last economy in region to open its borders outside of Greater China,has seen a remarkable recovery with traffic levels in Q4 2022 at 77%of 2019 levels(Chart

181、 77).We expect that passenger traffic growth in Greater China and in economies that are heavily reliant on Chinese tourists,such as Malaysia,Singapore,South Korea,and Thailand,will improve going forward.The lifting of any residual travel restrictions to/from China PR will also help the Asia Pacific

182、region catch up with other regions in terms of passenger traffic recovery.The relatively lower number of aircraft expected to be delivered in the region reflect the slow recovery of the region as a whole(Chart 78).Total ASKs for airlines in the region grew by 30%YoY in 2022,reaching 60%of the pre-pa

183、ndemic level.In the meantime,the passenger load factor(PLF)also improved for the regions airlines,climbing 15 percentage points,and reaching 77%by the end of December.These developments in the total ASK and PLF support the improving air travel demand conditions for the region.26 Quarterly Chartbook

184、Q4 2022 Chart 73:Growth in RPKs by region Chart 74:Growth in international RPKs(%YoY)Chart 75:Growth in CTKs by region Chart 76:Ticket sales by regions(7-day moving average)Chart 77:Passenger traffic(O-D)by country in Q4 2022 Chart 78:Aircraft deliveries in 2018-22 -43.5%-16.0%-13.5%-12.2%-10.5%-8.2

185、%-23.1%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%AsiaPacificMiddleEastEuropeAfricaLatinAmericaNorthAmericaIndustry%change in Dec 2022 vs Dec 2019Source:IATA Monthly Statistics59.3%45.8%70.5%84.6%83.5%375.0%85.5%37.0%46.5%61.3%69.8%118.8%302.7%80.2%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%Dec 2022Nov 2022%YoYIndustryAsia PacificAfr

186、icaMiddle EastN.AmericaEuropeL.AmericaSources:IATA Monthly Statistics-15%-13%-11%-6%-3%11%-7%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%AsiaPacificEuropeMiddleEastAfricaLatinAmericaNorthAmericaIndustry%change in Dec 2022 vs Dec 2019Source:IATA Monthly StatisticsAsia PacificGlobal0%20%40%60%80%100%Jan-20Mar-20May-20Ju

187、l-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22%change vs the same month in 2019 Source:IATA Economics based on data from DDS-18%-52%-70%-78%-7%-32%-23%-35%-19%-23%-39%-39%-34%-18%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%change in Q42022 vs Q4 2019Source:IATA Economics based o

188、n DDS data010020030040050060070080090020152016201720182019202020212022Aircrafts deliveredSource:IATA Economics using data from Cirium Fleet AnalyzerWorld share1RPKASKPLF(%-pt)2PLF(level)3RPKASKPLF(%-pt)2PLF(level)3TOTAL MARKET100.0%-23.1%-22.1%-1.1%81.1%39.7%23.0%9.7%81.1%Asia Pacific27.5%-43.5%-40.

189、2%-4.4%77.2%63.3%31.9%14.8%77.2%December 2022(%ch vs the same month in 2019)December 2022(%year-on-year)27 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 Europe Air passenger traffic by European carriers has been on a path of steady recovery since the depth of the pandemic.On a monthly basis,total RPKs reached 86.5%of

190、 the pre-pandemic level as of December 2022,which is higher than the industry average(Chart 79).On an annual basis,European airlines doubled total RPKs in 2022 from 2021 levels and recovered 78%of their 2019 RPKs.Europes international passenger recovery faced significant challenges early in 2022.Beg

191、inning with Covid-related restrictions due to the Omicron wave,the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in February led to airspace closures and a period of rising energy prices and inflation.Despite these obstacles,Europes international passenger traffic has made a strong recovery through the end of the

192、 year.Growing by 46%and 47%YoY in November and December,respectively,international RPKs for the region have returned to 85%of their pre-pandemic level(Chart 80).After a drop in February due to the Russia-Ukraine war,air ticket sales in Europe resumed their momentum and continued to out-perform the r

193、est of the world,reaching almost 90%of pre-pandemic levels by the end of December(Chart 82).In terms of Origin-Destination(O-D)passenger traffic,Portugals traffic rose 11%above pre-pandemic levels as of Q4 2022,one of Europes best performances.Greeces O-D passengers also eclipsed 2019 levels in Q4 2

194、022.Traffic in Germany remained 29%below their pre-pandemic levels(Chart 83).On the cargo side,following the trend in global air cargo traffic,European airline CTKs also declined YoY in December 2022,and fell 13.5%below their pre-pandemic level(Chart 81).However,over the course of the full year 2022

195、,total air cargo traffic flown by the regions airlines remained at 91%of their 2019 level.Passenger load factors for European carriers reached 83.6%in December 2022,2.5 percentage points higher than the industry average,and 4 percentage points lower than load factors achieved in December 2019.Cargo

196、load factors improved slightly during Q4 2022 and reached 56%in December 2022,9 percentage points higher than the industry average.The outlook is positive for Europe.Aircraft deliveries are continuing to increase in the region,which should accommodate the expected growth in demand and facilitate a r

197、eturn to 2019 traffic levels(Chart 84).Chart 79:Growth in RPKs by region Chart 80:Growth in international RPKs(%YoY)-43.5%-16.0%-13.5%-12.2%-10.5%-8.2%-23.1%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%AsiaPacificMiddleEastEuropeAfricaLatinAmericaNorthAmericaIndustry%change in Dec 2022 vs Dec 2019Source:IATA Monthly Stati

198、stics59.3%45.8%70.5%84.6%83.5%375.0%85.5%37.0%46.5%61.3%69.8%118.8%302.7%80.2%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%Dec 2022Nov 2022%YoYIndustryAsia PacificAfricaMiddle EastN.AmericaEuropeL.AmericaSources:IATA Monthly Statistics 28 Quarterly Chartbook Q4 2022 Chart 81:Growth in CTKs by region Chart 82:Ticket

199、 sales by regions(7-day moving average)Chart 83:Passenger traffic(O-D)by country in Q4 2022 Chart 84:Aircraft deliveries in 2018-22 -15%-13%-11%-6%-3%11%-7%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%AsiaPacificEuropeMiddleEastAfricaLatinAmericaNorthAmericaIndustry%change in Dec 2022 vs Dec 2019Source:IATA Monthly Sta

200、tisticsEuropeGlobal0%20%40%60%80%100%Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22%change vs the same month in 2019 Source:IATA Economics based on data from DDS-20%-26%-8%-29%5%-22%-1%-20%-6%-7%11%-7%-17%-16%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%chang

201、e in Q42022 vs Q42019Source:IATA Economics based on DDS data05010015020025030035040045050020152016201720182019202020212022Aircrafts deliveredSource:IATA Economics using data from Cirium Fleet World share1RPKASKPLF(%-pt)2PLF(level)3RPKASKPLF(%-pt)2PLF(level)3TOTAL MARKET100.0%-23.1%-22.1%-1.1%81.1%39.7%23.0%9.7%81.1%Europe25.0%-13.5%-14.0%0.6%83.6%38.8%18.9%11.9%83.6%December 2022(%ch vs the same month in 2019)December 2022(%year-on-year)Iata.org/economics economicsiata.org