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1、Aftermarket 2030 The Fleet Imperative June 2023By Albert Waas,Alexander Brenner,Robert Herzberg,Caroline Jantsch,and Frank SchlehuberContents02|At a Glance03|The Evolution of the Fleet Business 12 Trends Will Shape the Fleet Industry Myths Regarding Fleet Trends 08|The Fleet Business is Growing in t

2、he European Aftermarket12|Four Critical Decisions Along Control Points14|Strategic Implications for Aftermarket Players16|Our Conclusion:Aftermarket Players must Prepare for the Growing Fleet BusinessBoston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important

3、 challenges and capture their greatest opportunities.BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it was founded in 1963.Today,we help clients with total transformationinspiring complex change,enabling organizations to grow,building competitive advantage,and driving bottom-line impact.To succeed,or

4、ganizations must blend digital and human capabilities.Our diverse,global teams bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of perspectives to spark change.BCG delivers solutions through leading-edge management consulting along with technology and design,corporate and digital venturesand

5、 business purpose.We work in a uniquely collaborative model across the firm and throughout all levels of the client organization,generating results that allow our clients to thrive.CLEPA,the European Association of Automotive Suppliers,is the voice of the automotive supply industry in Europe linking

6、 the sector to policy makers in Brussels and Geneva.CLEPA represents over 3,000 companies supplying state-of-the-art components and innovative technology for safe,smart,and sustainable mobility,investing over 30 billion euros yearly in research and development.Automotive suppliers directly employ ab

7、out 1.7 million people in Europe.Founded in 1959,our vision is for the automotive supply industry to be the leading provider of innovative technologies and solutions for safe,sustainable,and smart mobility around the world.Our mission is to co-create the framework conditions for advancing a sustaina

8、ble and competitive supply industry in Europe,innovating mobility and bringing prosperity and employment to society at large.BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP +CLEPA 32 AFTERMARKET 2030THE FLEET IMPERATIVEThe Evolution of the Fleet Business12 Trends Will Shape the Fleet IndustryAs inflation and interest rates

9、 continue to drive up costs,and customer demand and loyalty are chang-ing in the mobility sector,institutional offerings for passenger car fleet providers are on the rise.Considering a very slow-growing European passenger car parc,the shift from privately owned cars to fleet cars will have a signifi

10、cant effect on the automotive aftermarket.Customer require-ments,car characteristics,and cost pressures will change.In the commercial vehicle(CV)segment,cost pressures and the rise of e-commerce are causing the demand for transport to grow,thereby driving up the fleet share.The already high share of

11、 fleet-operated LCVs and MHDTs will continue to grow and make use of advanced technologies.In general,we see four key market developments driving the growth and development of the fleet sector in the aftermarket.In order to both address the needs of fleets as an emerging customer segment and maintai

12、n and strengthen their market position,aftermarket players must adjust their strategic focus.At A GlanceFleet vehicles are capturing a significant and rising share of a growing European aftermarket.By 2030,five countries(Germany,France,United Kingdom,Netherlands,and Poland)alone will account for a f

13、leet aftermarket size of 45 billion(37%of the total aftermarket).This rising fleet share will bring about a shift in the aftermarket,as more customers will be B2B,fleets will have a sig-nificantly higher electrification rate(48%in 2030),while fleet PCs will have an average age of 2.9 years(in 2030).

14、This will require players to position themselves strategically in this everchanging aftermarket.Comprehensive ApproachIn an extensive study,Boston Consulting Group(BCG)collaborated with the European Association of Automotive Suppliers(CLEPA)to identify fleet aftermarket drivers,forecast the fleet ma

15、rket size within the total aftermarket,and determine strategic recommendations for players within this field.We conducted 30 interviews with aftermarket industry experts and conducted a dedicated survey to medium-and heavy-duty truck fleet managers across Europe to base our extensive forecast model.

16、The study focuses on five key European countries(Germany,France,United Kingdom,Netherlands,and Poland)and differ-entiates fleets along passenger cars(PC),light commercial vehicles(LCV),and medium-and heavy duty trucks(MHDT)as well as trailers in specific areas.In certain analysis propulsion types,ag

17、e groups and fleet types were differentiated.All market forecasts consider a generalized inflation rate and focus parts prices on the retail level without wages or other cost effects.BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP +CLEPA 54 AFTERMARKET 2030THE FLEET IMPERATIVEMARKET AND VALUE CHAIN While the number of PCs

18、per capita is stagnating,particu-larly in Western Europe and the Nordics,the fleet parc size is growing,with a compound annual growth rate(CAGR)of 4.8%expected until 2030.In the PC segment,fleet growth is driven by customers shifting from owning to leasing vehicles,thereby mitigating residual value

19、risk(especially for electric vehicles,or EVs),as they demand flexible and convenient solutions.In the CV segment,rising e-com-merce and the related growth of the transport business are fueling the fleet market.By 2030,these growth drivers are expected to result in a fleet share of 15%for PCs,41%for

20、LCVs,69%for MHDTs,and 79%for trailers.For the after-market,this provides the opportunity to increase the num-ber of customers with high volumes of business,expand the service business(rather than just parts),and grow the customer segment within a stagnating market.However,aftermarket players will al

21、so need to adapt their business-es to this customer segment,which has substantially different characteristics than the total vehicle parc.For instance,the fleet Battery Electric Vehicle(BEV)share is expected to reach 62%for PCs by 2030.At the same time,fleet vehicles are significantly younger,with a

22、n average PC age of 2.9 years(vs.8 years for the average car parc).Regulation is increasing in the automotive industry,which already has more than 150 EU regulations.1 One piece of regulation that has been heavily discussed recently and has a strong impact on the aftermarket is the Data Act,a propos

23、al from the EU that aims to regulate the access and use of data.Current issues include restricted access to data for players other than original equipment manufactur-ers(OEMs),a lack of data protection,and the absence of fair competition when it comes to repair and maintenance(R&M).While,as a horizo

24、ntal regulation,the act covers several sectors,some automotive groups are demanding sector-specific regulation that balances cybersecurity needs with ensuring a competitive environment.Fleets are confronted with tight margins,so,as mainte-nance is one of the top five total cost of ownership(TCO)comp

25、onents of PC fleets,workshops will be urged to pro-vide cost-efficient solutions.However,as the adoption of BEVs continues to rise,the average spend of R&M within PC fleets is expected to decline by 37%by 2030.Similarly,in the MHDT segment,slim margins are responsible for 85%of fleets across Europe

26、specifying price as one of their top three Key Purchasing Criteria(KPC)when selecting a workshop.1 acea.(2022).The Automotive Regulatory Guide.FLEET SUSTAINABILITYSustainability factors are becoming more and more im-portant for fleets,especially when they are in line with TCO.For PC fleets,important

27、 drivers of purchasing deci-sions include being“green,”such as through fuel-efficient solutions,emissions,and powertrains.Fleets also view sustainable manufacturing as an important purchasing criterion,including energy-efficient production and the use of sustainable materials.CV fleets view powertra

28、in and other sustainability factors along the value chain as a key priority over the next two years;however,they are not yet a top KPC for selecting a workshop.This indicates that,while they believe sustainability topics will become crucial in the coming years,MHDT fleets have not yet started imple-

29、menting sustainability aspects into their operations.PC and LCV fleets have a clear ambition to raise EV adop-tion.Forecasts from the market model show that BEV vehicles will account for 62%of PC fleets and 22%of LCV fleets by 2030.However,several external factors may con-strain BEV adoption.In part

30、icular,the expansion of charging infrastructure,the residual value of batteries,raw material supply,and battery performance are all major constraining factors.In MHDT fleets,charging infrastruc-ture and battery performance are constraining the adop-tion of alternative powertrains even more than in P

31、C and LCV fleets due to longer distances traveled.The market is experiencing strong uncertainty regarding which power-train will prevail in the future,which is delaying new vehi-cle purchases.Despite these uncertainties,the share of alternative powertrains in MHDT fleets is projected to rise in the

32、coming years,reaching 11%BEV and 4%fuel cell electric vehicle(FCEV)adoption by 2030.In order to meet demand for BEVs,new EV players will be needed in the European market,which means non-Europe-an EV manufacturers will need collaboration models to provide a local network for R&M.For instance,AIWAYS,a

33、 Chinese EV manufacturer,has announced a cooperation with the European parts distributor and workshop chain operator ATU.The advantage of cooperating with a local player is the ability to quickly offer strong R&M coverage and enter the European market without having to make significant investments o

34、r expend considerable time set-ting up a service network.Given that in the EU-27 20%of GHG emissions are from road transport,regulatory requirements on emissions standards for the automotive industry are tightening.Exhibit 1|12 trends that will shape the fleet industry until 2030Sources:Market Parti

35、cipant Interviews;Market reports;BCG consumer mobility study;BCG Case Experience;BCG Truck Aftermarket Survey;BCG analysisMarket and Value Chain Fleet share growing by 6pp for PCs and LCVs and 10pp for HCVs and trailers from 2025 to 20301 Ongoing market consolidation and entry of new market players2

36、 Increasing regulation with newly published orders on data exchange,design directive,etc.3 Rising pressure on cost as fleets margins tighten4Fleet Sustainability Sustainability factors are becoming a key purchasing criterion for fleet managers5 Rising EV share reaching 62%BEV for PC and 22%BEV for L

37、CV in fleet parc by 20306 Accelerating H2 and EV adoption for MHDTs,despite uncertainty regarding prevailing tech7 Tightening need for sustainability transparency(e.g.,CO2footprint)8Data Exchange Rising need for fleet-to-car connectivity driven by cost reasons,w/22%of PCs,27%of LCVs,and 47%of MHDTs

38、connected9 Growing demand for fleet-to-workshop connection10Mobility Transformation Shift to holistic mobility solution fostered by 40%50%of customers asking more frequently for mobility services11 Growing demand for battery management and charging infrastructure services,with 60%of chargers located

39、 in four EU countries12BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP +CLEPA 76 AFTERMARKET 2030THE FLEET IMPERATIVEMyths Regarding Fleet Trends In terms of market and value chain,we anticipated the fleet share to be well above 50%for PC and LCVs and 90%for MHDT and trailer fleets.However,we found that the fleet share lie

40、s at 15%for PCs,41%for LCVs,69%for MHDTs,and 79%for trailers.We were also able to con-firm that fleets typically use authorized channels in the first few years when warranties still apply;however,they are also open to using the independent aftermarket(IAM).The study reveals that,within the sustainab

41、ility trend bucket,fleets are cost driven and preoccupied with the transition to EV,yet they do not emphasize sustainability along the value chain or the use of remanufactured parts.The study also reveals that fleets do not use connectivity and data analytics to develop business models and im-prove

42、the customer experience,but rather for TCO optimi-zation.Within mobility transformation,the analysis proves that sharing models have a low margin potential and,hence,are likely to complement a fleets product portfolio.For instance,the EU has released its“Fit for 55”package as a key step to becoming

43、climate neutral by 2050.The package states that carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions for newly registered PCs need to be reduced by 55%by 2030 and new ICE vehicle registrations,with the exception of e-fuels,will be banned by 2030.The package also includes requirements to increase coverage of charging infras

44、truc-ture.A similar proposal has been made for reducing CO2 emissions from trucks,in which the EU proposes to widen the scope of current regulation to also include smaller trucks and set a new target of reducing CO2 emissions by 90%by 2040.To further improve sustainability,there are plans for 500+lo

45、w-emission zones by 2025 and 35+zero-emission zones by 2030 in Europe.2 Despite these regulato-ry efforts,the interview results show that further commer-cial and regulatory pressure is needed for structural change.Sustainability reporting will be a key element to ensure regulatory compliance.DATA EX

46、CHANGECurrently,22%of PCs,27%of LCVs,and 48%of MHDTs in European fleets are connected.3 Via remote diagnosis,a repair estimate can be generated for connected vehicles as soon as they indicate an error.At the same time,parts orders can be triggered directly via remote diagnosis and customers can rece

47、ive in-car suggestions for specific work-shops.Parties with direct and real-time data access have an advantage in serving customers of connected vehicles.Additionally,there is strong optimization potential for after -market players with data access by automizing parts-order-ing processes,reducing in

48、-person diagnoses of vehicles,and ensuring more-efficient parts delivery.For fleets,a key challenge in terms of connectivity lies in the integration of different solutions.This becomes more complex with the varying maturity of technology across vehicle generations,different propulsion types for tech

49、ni-cally advanced EVs,and vehicles from various OEMs using different connectivity tools.A homogenous fleet could solve these challenges;however,fleets have to serve the needs of a variety of customers and fleet managers prefer to have a mixed assortment of vehicles in order to stay independent from

50、specific OEMs.Having a vast number of IT systemseven within the same workshop chainremains a key challenge.With a standardized IT backbone,workshops could provide tools such as automatic invoicing,appointment scheduling,a chat tool,and an integration of the workshop with connect-ed vehicles within t

51、he fleet.For example,by fully integrat-2 Clean Cities.(2022).The development trends of low and zero-emission zones in Europe.3 Arval Mobility Observatory.(2022).Mobility and Fleet Barometer 2022:Global Report.4 Bundesministerium fr Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz.(25.April 2022).Darum gehts beim Batterie

52、pass fr Elektroautos.https:/www.bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/Artikel/Industrie/Batteriezellfertigung/batteriepass.html5 European Commission.(2021).European Alternative Fuels Observatory.ing their IT landscape with fleets vehicles,workshops could predict R&M and offer an automatic scheduling tool.On the one

53、hand,this could enhance workshops occupan-cy rates and help avoid clustering of R&M activity.On the other hand,fleets could benefit from higher predictability and spread downtimes of their vehicles over time.MOBILITY TRANSFORMATIONTraditionally,company cars were offered either as a job requirement(e

54、.g.,for salespeople)or as a corporate bene-fit.Currently,10%20%of consumers would consider giving up their car,and 40%50%of consumers want to use mo-bility services more frequently.As a result,companies mobility offerings are expanding to include car-,scooter-,and bike-sharing opportunities,car rent

55、als,and even public transportation as part of a broader range of services to meet employee requirements for higher flexibility and convenience.This transformation in transportation options also impacts aftermarket players.Workshops,for example,can provide contracts to players that require higher vol

56、-umes of repairs,such as subscription or rental vehicles,whose users,on average,take less care of the vehicles.As BEVs gain relevance,and to reap the benefits of the positive environmental impact of this propulsion type,it is necessary to consider the options that exist for batteries after their fir

57、st life in a vehicle.By 2030,it is expected that 75%of EV batteries will be recycled,15%20%will have a second life in the form of BEV spares/remanufactured,stationary storage,etc.,and 5%will simply be disposed of.In order to ensure regulatory compliance of a minimum number of recycled materials,the

58、EU will require a battery passport for all EV batteries by 2026.As batteries account for 40%of the value creation for BEVs,and as such are a core TCO driver,this will be particularly relevant for fleets.4As mentioned previously,charging stations currently re-main a constraining factor for BEV adopti

59、on.Two out of three EV owners have access to charging stations at their home as well as their workplace and tend to use private charging more frequently.However,public charging sta-tions will provide the majority of the energy consumed by BEVs.With more than 60%of the European charging sta-tions cur

60、rently concentrated within four European coun-tries,and given the requirements of the EU“Fit for 55”package,there is a strong investment need to build up this infrastructure.5 Prior to the study,we anticipated certain trends that were ultimately proven to be true based on our analysis.Exhibit 2|Myth

61、s in the fleet aftermarket until 2030Sources:Market Participant Interviews;Market reports;BCG Case Experience;BCG analysisIndustry MythsMarket FactsFleet share for PCs and LCVs will be well above 50%and for MHDTs and trailers above 90%in 2030Fleets strongly focus on using the authorized channelFleet

62、 share 15%for PCs and 41%for LCVs and 69%for MHDTs and 79%for trailers in 2030Fleets are open to collaborate with the IAM,driven by digitalization and spendFleets demand sustainability of parts and in process steps along the value chainGrowing sustainability requirements will drive strong growth of

63、remanufactured partsFleets are cost-driven and are preoccupied with the transition to EV V;sustainability if helping TCORemanufactured parts are mainly demanded to reduce spend on repair costsFleets want fleet management solutions provided by wholesalers and Tier-1sFleets want standardized solutions

64、 to reduce complexityData transparency and connectivity is used to develop new business models and raise customer satisfactionFleets use their own fleet management toolsAlthough fleets want standardization,independence from OEMs and the shift to EV are prioritizedMain motivation to use connectivity

65、solutions is TCO optimizationSharing models are the future of fleet providersSharing models have a low margin potentialBOSTON CONSULTING GROUP +CLEPA 98 AFTERMARKET 2035THE FLEET IMPERATIVEThe Fleet Business is Growing in the European AftermarketWithin the five European countries studied,the total v

66、ehicle parc is slowly growing across all four vehicle types(see Exhibit 3).The fleet share within these vehicle parcs is gaining momentum,outgrow-ing the total market.In the PC segment,the fleet parc is forecast to increase by 9.2 million vehicles by 2030.As such,the PC fleet parc will reach 22.4 mi

67、llion vehicles by 2030,constituting a fleet share of 15%.Core drivers of this growth are fewer personal miles driven in combination with increased demand for sharing models.Alternative mo-bility solutions are particularly favorable due to the high-in-terest-rate and high-inflation environment.Simila

68、rly,the LCV parc size is expected to increase by 1.8 million vehi-cles,resulting in a fleet parc of 8.1 million LCVs in the five selected European countries.Core drivers of LCV fleet growth include increased last-mile delivery,as e-commerce and delivery options continue to grow.At the same time,the

69、fleet share for MHDTs is forecast to reach 69%in 2030,while the total MHDT parc is considerably smaller than for PCs.This assumes that the number of MHDTs will rise by 0.8 million,totaling 2.9 million fleet MHDTs by 2030.The fleet share for trailers is even higher than for MHDTs,with an expected sha

70、re of 79%in 2030.To reach this share,the fleet trailer parc is anticipated to grow to 1.5 million trail-ers by 2030.The accelerating MHDT and trailer fleet parc shares are a result of increasing e-commerce and cost pressures in the transport market.Both in the total parc as well as the fleet parc,BE

71、V adop-tion and the age of vehicles will be critical factors.Within the PC fleet parc,62%of vehicles will be BEV in 2030,compared with 16%in the total PC parc.The Nordics and Western Europe lead in BEV adoption.In terms of age,PC fleets are significantly younger than the total parc,with an anticipat

72、ed average of 2.9 years versus 11.1 years in 2030,respectively.In the LCV segment,a similar but less-strong trend can be observed.As 22%of LCV fleet vehicles are expected to be BEVs,this will resemble a challenge for an aftermarket that still needs to become BEV ready.A slight-ly aging LCV fleet par

73、c will have favorable effects on the aftermarket.By 2030,the LCV fleet is forecast to have an average age of 4.9 years;however,on average,this is still significantly younger than the total LCV parc age of 10.1 years.In the MHDT fleet,BEV adoption will only start to pick up by the end of the decade,r

74、eaching 11%BEV and 4%FCEV in 2030.Due to the high fleet share,these charac-teristics do not strongly divert from the total MHDT parc,where BEV adoption is expected to be 9%and the FCEV share 3%in 2030.Both the total MHDT fleet and the MHDT parc are aging,reaching an average age of 7.8 years and 10.1

75、 years by 2030,respectively.Similar to MHDTs,a high trailer fleet share results in a similar age for fleets compared with the parc,amounting to 10.7 years versus 11.1 years.Overall,both the high BEV adoption in fleets as well as their lower vehicle age will be a challenge for the aftermarket,especia

76、lly the IAM.Exhibit 3|European fleet parc size across vehicle types until 2030Source:IHS data;CLEAR data;KBA data;UK vehicle registration data;Market Participant Interviews;Market reports;BCG analysisFleet parc size,split by vehicle type(M units)20302021152.9147.6CAGR 202120304.23.6+6.0%+0.4%+3.6%+1

77、.8%9%15%59%69%19.817.81.72.0+2.8%+1.2%+2.9%+1.4%35%41%69%79%Fleet+xx%=CAGR fleet parc+xx%=CAGR total parc10 AFTERMARKET 2030THE FLEET IMPERATIVEBOSTON CONSULTING GROUP +CLEPA 11Cumulatively,the growing fleet parc,which has substantial-ly different characteristics from the total aftermarket,is expect

78、ed to reach an aftermarket value of 45 billion in 2030,whereas the IAM generates 20 billion(see Exhibit 4).This corresponds to a CAGR of 4.5%in the fleet after-market until 2030,compared with 1.7%in the total after-market.Specifically,the PC fleet aftermarket value is projected to be 6.7 billion in

79、2030,with 3.3 billion in R&M spend.The IAM is expected to capture 26%of this market in 2030,a value of 1.8 billion.Despite a slightly higher average spend for LCVs,the smaller fleet size will result in a somewhat lower fleet aftermarket size of 3.4 billion in 2030,including 2.0 billion in R&M.The IA

80、M is forecasted to cover a share of 29%,slightly higher than in the PC segment.Due to more costly repairs and more frequent inspections,the average spend for MHDTs is 35x higher than for PCs.This leads to a fleet aftermarket value of 29 billion,including 17 billion in R&M.The IAM will account for 41

81、%of the fleet aftermarket in 2030,leading to a market value of 11.9 billion.The aftermarket size for trailer fleets is expected at 5.8 billion,with 2.5 billion in R&M.For this vehicle type,the IAM captures a share of Exhibit 4|European fleet aftermarket size across vehicle types until 2030Note:Numbe

82、rs refer to retail level(parts only,excl.labor)Source:IHS data;CLEAR data;KBA data;UK vehicle registration data;Market Participant Interviews;Market reports;BCG analysisFleet IAM aftermarket size,split by vehicle type(B)203020216.74.7CAGR 2021203029.019.3+2.0%+4.1%+3.6%+4.4%1.51.78.111.93.482.5+3.4%

83、+3.4%+2.9%+5.1%0.981.33.35.2 IAM+xx%=CAGR IAM aftermarket+xx%=CAGR total aftermarket3.85.890%due to its long use times.This results in a trailer IAM market size of 5.2 billion.These results confirm that the fleet business provides a strong opportunity for the aftermarket.However,a scenario analysis(

84、see Exhibit 5)for the PC fleet aftermarket shows the sensibility of the forecast market size.In 2021,the PC fleet aftermarket had an R&M market size of 3.1 billion.Assuming the fleet share and BEV adoption for PCs remain at their 2021 levels(9%fleet share and 4%BEV),the PC fleet R&M aftermarket is e

85、xpected to grow to 3.7 billion by 2030.The reason for this growth is price levels increas-ing with inflation,additional price growth,and the contin-ued growth of the total parceven if slow.In the market model,we assume that the fleet market will reach a share of 15%and BEV-powered vehicles will cons

86、titute a 62%share by 2030.By looking at these assumptions separately,the individual effects can be seen more clearly.For in-stance,in a scenario in which the fleet share grows to 15%in 2030 while BEV adoption remains at the 2021 level,the R&M aftermarket growth will accelerate,with an anticipat-ed m

87、arket size of 6.1 billion.In another scenario wherein the fleet share remains at 9%,as in 2021,and BEV adop-tion rises to 62%in 2030,the R&M fleet size decreases from 3.1 billion in 2021 to 2.0 billion in 2030.This shrinking market is mainly caused by the high adoption of BEVs,which have a lower R&M

88、 spend.By combining these two scenarios,the target scenario with a BEV share of 62%and a fleet share of 15%can be forecasted.The converse effects of an increasing volume of fleet vehicles in combi-nation with a larger number of BEVs results in an R&M fleet aftermarket size of 3.3 billion.This indica

89、tes that the market will experience slow growth from todays level of 3.1 billion to the target scenario in 2030.However,the expected market size could be even higher,as shown by the forward-projected market from 2021,when fleet share and BEV adoption remained constant(3.7 billion).Exhibit 5|Scenario

90、 analysis for European PC fleet parc in 20301.In NL,BEV share in 2030 is 1.1x as high as in base case 2.Higher total market vs.today due to inflation,additional price developments,etc.Note:R&M-Repair and Maintenance;Numbers refer to retail level(parts only,excl.labor)Source:IHS data;Market Participa

91、nt Interviews;Market reports;BCG analysisFleet R&M Aftermarket size by fleet share and EV adoption(PC)(2030,B)Bubble size and textR&M fleet aftermarket size 2030 xxFleet ShareBEV adoption in fleetTarget scenario:62%BEV Status quo:4%BEV2.0B3.3B3.7B6.1BProjection status quo1Target scenarioIncreased BE

92、V adoptionIncreased fleet shareHigh growth corridorLow-growth corridorStatus quo:9%fleet shareTarget scenario:15%fleet shareBubble size and textR&M fleet aftermarket size 2021BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP +CLEPA 1312 AFTERMARKET 2035THE FLEET IMPERATIVEFour Critical Decisions Along Control PointsWhen look

93、ing at the process of a fleet receiving services from the aftermarket,four essential control points can be identified(see Exhibit 6).With an increasing fleet shareand hence,a growing customer segmentaftermarket players will need to use key strategic levers to position themselves within the market.A

94、rising BEV share and a significantly younger fleet parc will challenge aftermarket players ability to succeed in the market.The first,control point A,resembles service agreements between aftermarket players and fleets,which also include workshop selection.Control point A has the highest criti-cality

95、,as it provides the opportunity for aftermarket players to set up contracts that will secure business in the subse-quent steps of the value chain.In both the PC and CV segments,three decision factors prevail:price and avail-ability of workshops,technical capabilities(especially for alternative power

96、trains),and IT integration.Our analysis shows that OEMs are in a particularly strong position in this first decision point,given the opportunity to combine sales with service contracts and the ability to leverage their data advantages.Similarly,insurances typically have direct-ly negotiated contract

97、s securing collaboration with fleets.In the MHDT segment,Tier-1 tire suppliers have a particu-larly high influence due to their specialized product portfo-lio and ability to offer packages specifically compiled for fleets.Workshop chains are in a good position due to their service offerings,includin

98、g a dense network and the ability to perform fast repairs.Wholesalers can benefit from both their service offerings for affiliated workshop chains and key accounts as well as their ability to optimize parts costs via bundled offerings across brands.Part suppliers,how-ever,partly lag behind in settin

99、g up contractual agree-ments despite their specialized product portfolios and strong TCO offerings.The second,control point B,refers to the diagnosis and repair estimate.Crucial decision factors for PC and CV fleets include the ability to diagnose remotely and make repair-versus-scrapping decisions.

100、Additionally,MHDT fleets need to determine whether to perform R&M in-house or use external parties.Within this control point,OEMs can leverage their data access and pre-established service contracts from control point A to steer customers to the authorized workshop channel.For other aftermarket play

101、-ers,the ability to influence fleets will depend on access to data.Control point C includes the repair process and parts logistics.Decision factors for all fleet types include a cost versus efficiency tradeoff and the coverage of workshop networks.PC fleets may additionally seek replacement mobility

102、 offers,depending on the use cases.Within this control point,both the authorized reseller(AR)and the IAM can leverage the coverage of their workshop network.The authorized channel has an additional advantage,as fleet customers are prone to do R&M at an AR in the first years due to warranty coverage.

103、Wholesalers can use their technical expertise and speedy logistics solutions to strengthen their position.Finally,control point D refers to fleet re-integration and quality review.Both PC and CV fleets value IT integration,including the status of repair for quick re-integration.Addi-tionally,PC flee

104、ts may have transfer services back to the fleet based on contracts.For most aftermarket players,the influence on this control point is limited,as they are typi-cally not part of the finalization process.OEMs and work-shop networks have a medium level of influence,but can foster end-to-end IT integra

105、tion.R&M and service agreements incl.workshop selectionDiagnosis and repair proposalRepair process and parts logisticsFleet re-integration and quality reviewABCDPassenger carsLCV,MHDTTrailerRemote diagnosticsRepair vs.scrapping decisionCapacity/availability(opportunity cost of downtime)Cost vs.effic

106、iency tradeoffCoverage of workshop networkReplacement mobility based in contractual agreementTransfer service to fleet based on contractual agreementIT integration incl.status of repair for quick re-integrationPrice and availability(lead time and reliability)Technical capabilities(EV and H2)IT integ

107、ration(invoicing)Remote diagnostics/root cause of breakage given customizationRepair vs.scrapping decisionIn-house vs.external repairCost vs.efficiency trade-offCoverage of workshop networkIT integration incl.status of repair for quick re-integrationPrice and availability(lead time and reliability)T

108、echnical capabilities(EV)IT integration(booking system,invoicing)Criticality of decision criteriaExhibit 6|Four control points in the European fleet aftermarketNote:R&M Repair&MaintenanceSource:Expert interviews;BCG analysisBOSTON CONSULTING GROUP +CLEPA 1514 AFTERMARKET 2035THE FLEET IMPERATIVEStra

109、tegic Implications for Aftermarket PlayersBased on the four trend categories defined,the market and value chain are evolving,sustainability is gaining momentum,data exchange will define competitive dynamics,and mobility transformation will transform the aftermarket.While these trends are relevant fo

110、r the entire market,fleets will be affected sooner.Aftermarket players that want to address this growing customer segment can improve their position along the four control points by anticipating the transition in the market.Additionally,partnerships and alliances between different stakeholders can s

111、trengthen an aftermarket players ability to use key levers in each control point,which also supports both building an integrated value chain and steering customers.OEMs are already in a strong position,especially across the first three control points(see Exhibit 6).To secure this position,OEMs shoul

112、d strengthen their fleet customer relationships,specifically beyond initial sales,to secure a greater share of the aftermarket via an AR.Core elements to strengthen their position in the fleet aftermarket include offering fleet-specific products and services.By preparing for a shift in the EV and hy

113、drogen fuel cell(H2)compo-nents market,OEMs can secure a larger share of the fleets that lead the EV adoption.Part suppliers have the opportunity to strengthen their position,particularly in control points A and B,including to support workshops to become fleet ready.By doing so,workshop chains could

114、 proactively push into contractual agreements between fleets and independent workshops.Further,direct collaboration with fleets,especially in the MHDT segment,would enable parts suppliers to directly capture a part of the fleet aftermarket.And by anticipating the shift to EV and H2,Tier 1s can suppo

115、rt fleets with the transition to alternative propulsion types.Tire Tier 1s already have a very strong position in the MHDT fleet segment due to their specialized product portfolio and packaged offerings for fleets.To maintain this position and potentially increase their presence in control point B,t

116、ire Tier 1s can push for direct collaboration with fleets.Additionally,they can expand their fleet-specific packages with a focus on costs and elaborate their offering of tires for EV and H2 MHDTs.Wholesalers have a particularly strong position in control point C,given their logistics solutions.Alth

117、ough they are already in a good position in the first control point thanks to their bundled offerings with optimized parts costs,wholesalers can proactively strengthen their position via strategic partnerships and direct collaboration agreements with fleets in order to steer end customers.The IAM ha

118、s an advantage over the AR given its dense workshop network and lower price levels.In order to fur-ther leverage this strength and steer end customers,IAM players could consider employing a joint approach toward fleets(e.g.,with service bundles,etc.).Fleets could benefit from a collaboration of work

119、shops with wholesalers to build a more integrated value chain.Workshops should also actively seek direct collaboration agreements with fleets in order to steer customers.BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP +CLEPA 1716 AFTERMARKET 2035THE FLEET IMPERATIVEOur Conclusion:Aftermarket Players must Prepare for the Gr

120、owing Fleet BusinessThe fleet automotive aftermarket will be driven by strong growth until the end of the decade.This growth will be fueled by trends along the market and value chain,sustain-ability,data,and mobility transformation.The target sce-nario is a fleet aftermarket size in 2030 of 6.7 bill

121、ion for PCs,3.4 billion for LCVs,29.0 billion for MHDTs,and 5.8 billion for trailers.Overall,this means aftermarket players that want to address the growing fleet customer segment need to anticipate the shift taking place in the market.Specifically,there are four main actions aftermar-ket players sh

122、ould take:1 Offer an EV-specific product portfolio.As fleets have an especially high EV share,aftermarket players need to be EV ready and offer EV-specific parts and services.2 Introduce a cost-focused product portfolio/solutions.As fleets have slim margins,aftermarket players need to offer products

123、 and services or fleet-specific product bundles that focus on cost.3 Develop digital solutions and prepare for connectivity.Fleets seek to integrate their IT systems with that of workshops and track connected vehicles to reduce costs and increase efficiency.4 Team up with aftermarket players.Afterma

124、rket players need to collaborate in order to provide a more integrated value chain,strengthen their position in terms of the previous three actions,and enhance services for fleets.By considering these four strategic recommendations,after-market players can prepare for a growing fleet custo mer segme

125、nt while developing a fleet-specific product portfolio.As such,aftermarket players will have the opportunity to strengthen their position within the control points and se-cure a growing customer segment in a slow-growth market.Exhibit 7|Our vision of the fleet aftermarket in 2030Increased data and s

126、ustainability regulationShift from owning to just using vehicles results in growing PC fleetsInvestments in charging infrastructure needed for BEV-adoptionGrowing demand for fleet-to-workshop connectionEquipment and training needed for workshops to become fleet readyFleet-to-car connectivity as a dr

127、iver for predictive maintenance and remote diagnosticsIncreased range of mobility servicesE-commerce is a key driver for growing commercial vehicle fleetsReduced deliveries to workshop due to connectivity and analytics toolsH2 adoption currently constrained by lack of charging infrastructureGrowing

128、demand for recycling and reuse of EV batteriesFleet management typically done in-house to secure a competitive edgeBoston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities.BCG was the pioneer in business

129、strategy when it was founded in 1963.Today,we work closely with clients to embrace a transformational approach aimed at benefiting all stakeholdersempowering organizations to grow,build sustainable competitive advantage,and drive positive societal impact.Our diverse,global teams bring deep industry

130、and functional expertise and a range of perspectives that question the status quo and spark change.BCG delivers solutions through leading-edge management consulting,technology and design,and corporate and digital ventures.We work in a uniquely collaborative model across the firm and throughout all l

131、evels of the client organization,fueled by the goal of helping our clients thrive and enabling them to make the world a better place.Uciam volora ditatur?Axim voloreribus moluptati autet hario qui a nust faciis reperro vitatia dipsandelia sit laborum,quassitio.Itas volutem es nulles ut faccus perchi

132、liati doluptatur.Estiunt.Et eium inum et dolum et et eos ex eum harchic teceserrum natem in ra nis quia disimi,omnia veror molorer ionsed quia ese veliquiatius sundae poreium et et illesci atibeatur aut que consequia autas sum fugit qui aut excepudit,omnia voloratur?Explige ndeliaectur magnam,que ex

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134、out the Authors Albert Waas,Managing Director&Partner,BCG Munich,Germany.You may contact him by email at:Waas.A Robert Herzberg,Principal,BCG Hamburg,Germany.You may contact him by email at:Herzberg.R Frank Schlehuber,Senior Consultant for Market Affairs at CLEPA,The European Association of Automoti

135、ve Suppliers,Brussels,Belgium.You may contact him by email at:consultant.maclepa.be Alex Brenner,Managing Director&Partner,BCG Hamburg,Germany.You may contact him by email at:Brenner.A Caroline Jantsch,Associate,BCG Munich,Germany.You may contact her by email at:Jantsch.CFor Further ContactIf you wo

136、uld like to discuss this report,please contact the authors.For information or permission to reprint,please contact BCG at .To find the latest BCG content and register to receive e-alerts on this topic or others,please visit .Follow Boston Consulting Group on Facebook and Twitter.Boston Consulting Group 2023.All rights reserved.06/23