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1、ResidentialThe Dubai Metro Report 2023Assessing the impact of the Dubai Metro on residential prices and rentsVIEWPOINTCBRE RESEARCHAPRIL 20232 2023 CBRE,INC.RESEARCHResidentialThe Dubai Metro Report 2023The Dubai Metro Report 2023ContentsBackgroundBackground andand MethodologyMethodologySalesSales M

2、arketMarket PerformancePerformancePrice Performance by Proximity to Metro StationsCommunity Level Price PerformanceRentalRental MarketMarket PerformancePerformanceRental Performance by Proximity to Metro StationsCommunity Level Rental PerformanceDevelopmentDevelopment ImplicationsImplications3 2023

3、CBRE,INC.RESEARCHResidentialThe Dubai Metro Report 2023Key Takeaways Between Q1 2010 and Q4 2022,properties which were within a 15-minute walk of a Dubai Red Line metro station saw prices increase over the same period The highest rate of price growth was recorded by properties which fell into the 10

4、 to 15-minute walking distance category,which saw prices increase by 43.8%on average Average rental rates for properties within a 15-minute proximity of a metro station increased by 5.7%from Q1 2018 to Q4 2022.Over this The highest rate of rental growth was also recorded by properties which fell int

5、o the 10 to 15-minute walking distance category,where rents increased by 11.7%on average Our findings show that developments within a 15-minute proximity to metro stations can outperform the wider market,but only if the development encompasses the right amenities and suitable urban infrastructure.Th

6、is entails a number of different factors alongside proximity to an efficient transit system,including walkable,scooter and cycle-friendly neighbourhoods and mixed-use non-concentric developmentsGoing forward,developers will have to increasingly consider proximity to transport infrastructure and a su

7、pporting urban environment as key components of their development strategies.Taimur KhanHead of ResearchFigure 1:Buildings Analysed,by Walking Distance to Metro StationsSource:CBRE Research0 to 5-MINUTE WALKING DISTANCE5 TO 10-MINUTE WALKING DISTANCE10 TO 15-MINUTE WALKING DISTANCEDUBAI METRO RED LI

8、NE4 2023 CBRE,INC.RESEARCHResidentialThe Dubai Metro Report 2023Background and MethodologyTransport Oriented Development(TOD)has been a widely,and successfully,used planning and development strategy in major metropolitan centres around the world.The strategy encompasses many factors,key amongst whic

9、h is the provision of public transport networks.Such networks,such as train and metro networks,have been shown not only to improve economic productivity,congestion and lower pollution levels,but can also help spur new residential development and underpin marked increases in real estate values.There

10、are a number of academic and market studies which point to the considerable premiums and outperformance that residential developments in proximity to transit stations are able to achieve,compared to their wider respective markets.With this in mind,we have undertaken a detailed study to determine if

11、residential units which are within a 15-minute walking distance to Dubai Metro Red Line(Red Line)stations have been able to achieve price and rental premiums or outperformance,or both.In this study,which focused solely on properties which were within a 15-minute walking distance of the Red Line,CBRE

12、 has analysed the development of average prices and rents per square foot for over 300 residential or mixed-use properties since the inauguration of the Dubai Metro in 2009.Alongside looking at the headline outcomes for properties within the specified walking distance,we also segmented each of these

13、 properties into the following three categories:0 to 5-minute walking distance5 to 10-minute walking distance 10 to 15-minute walking distance As part of the analysis of sales prices and performance,we have analysed close to 74,000 residential sales transactions from Q1 2010 to Q4 2022.Within the re

14、ntal market section of the study,close to 112,000 rental contracts(Ejari)were analysed.However,due to rental contract(Ejari)data currently only being available from Q1 2018,we were not able to analyse the rental premiums or performance achieved since the inauguration of the Dubai Metro.As a result,t

15、his analysis is limited to the period starting Q1 2018 to Q4 2022.Finally,we have also had to exclude properties which were located within the Dubai International Financial Centre,this was primarily due to the lack of availability of comparable data which would have restricted like for like comparis

16、ons.Citywide residential price growth between Q1 2010 and Q4 202224.1%Price growth of apartments between Q1 2010 to Q4 202226.7%Citywide residential rental growth between Q1 2018 and Q4 2022-4.1%Rental growth of apartments between Q1 2018 and Q4 20225.7%Dubai Marina and JLTDiscovery Gardens and Al F

17、urjan Barsha Heights and The GreensBuildings Buildings AnalysedAnalysed,by Walking Distance to Metro Stations,by Walking Distance to Metro Stations Downtown Dubai and Business Bay0 to 5-MINUTE WALKING DISTANCE5 TO 10-MINUTE WALKING DISTANCE10 TO 15-MINUTE WALKING DISTANCEDUBAI METRO RED LINE6 2023 C

18、BRE,INC.RESEARCHResidentialThe Dubai Metro Report 2023Sales Market Performance From Q1 2010 to Q4 2022,average residential prices in Dubai have increased by 24.1%.Over the same period,residential properties located within a 15-minute walk of a metro station have seen prices increase on average by 26

19、.7%.There are however some variances in performance across the three proximity categories.Whilst those properties within 0-to-5 and 10-to-15-minute walks show marked levels of outperformance compared to the Dubai average,where they respectively recorded average price growth of 35.8%and 43.8%,propert

20、ies which are within a 5 to 10-minute walking distance have significantly underperformed the wider market.Average prices for properties in the 5 to 10-minute proximity category increased by only 0.2%.This subdued level of performance has been largely due to lackluster performance in price growth in

21、secondary locations,which have tended to consist of affordable stock with limited amenities and urban infrastructure.Properties within the 5 to 10-minute proximity category,which have modern amenities and quality urban infrastructure,such as JBR and Marina,bucked this trend and recorded price growth

22、 of 40.5%and 35.9%respectively.Secondary locations have also on the whole seen lackluster performance in the highest performance category of the 10 to 15-minute walking distance.Citywide residential price growth between Q1 2010 and Q4 202224.1%Price growth of apartments between Q1 2010 and Q4 202226

23、.7%Figure 2:Average residential price growth by proximity,Q1 2010 Q4 2022Source:CBRE Research/REIDIN24.1%35.8%0.2%43.8%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%50.0%Dubai Average0 to 5-minute walkingdistance5 to 10-minute walkingdistance10 to 15-minute walkingdistance7 2023 CBRE,INC.RESEARCHR

24、esidentialThe Dubai Metro Report 2023Residential Prices,AED/SQ.FT.Residential Prices,AED/SQ.FT.8 2023 CBRE,INC.RESEARCHResidentialThe Dubai Metro Report 2023Sales Market PerformanceFigure 3:Sales market performance,By community,Properties within a 15-minute walk to a metro station26.7%-22.8%-3.4%21.

25、3%77.0%48.0%1.3%-17.6%47.4%33.1%-17.6%-32.3%-4.5%25.7%50.1%9.2%7.2%-12.9%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%AverageAl Barsha FirstAl FurjanAl KifafBarsha HeightsBusiness BayCity WalkDiscovery GardensDowntown DubaiDubai MarinaGreen Community EastJebel Ali DowntownJebel Ali FirstJebel Ali Free Zon

26、eJumeirah Beach ResidenceJumeirah Lake TowersThe GreensTrade Center SecondSource:CBRE Research/REIDIN47.4%Increase in average prices of apartments in Downtown Dubai which are within a 15-minute walk of a metro station between Q2 2010 and Q4 2022AED 2,160Average sales price per square foot of apartme

27、nts located in Downtown Dubai as at Q4 2022AED 2,730Average sales price per square foot in Downtown Dubai for properties within a 15-minute walk of a metro station as at Q4 20229 2023 CBRE,INC.RESEARCHResidentialThe Dubai Metro Report 2023Rental Market Performance Average rents for properties within

28、 a 15-minute walk of a metro station from Q1 2018 to Q4 2022 increased by 5.7%,over the same period,average rents across Dubai decreased by 4.1%.Once again,we have seen a marked outperformance for properties located within a 10 to 15-minute walk of a metro station,where rents increased on average by

29、 11.7%from Q1 2018 to Q4 2022.For properties located within a 0 to 5-minute and 5 to 10-minute walk,both have outperformed the wider Dubai average,albeit relatively marginally.However,whilst average rental rates in the former grew by 0.9%,for the latter,they fell by 0.5%.These softer levels of perfo

30、rmance were largely underpinned by affordable properties in secondary locations,where properties in the likes of Discovery Gardens,Barsha Heights and Al Furjan have seen average rental rates decrease by 35.0%,15.1%and 0.6%from Q1 2018 to Q4 2022 respectively.Another notable finding has been the leve

31、l of outperformance key residential hubs have recorded.Properties within 15 minutes of a metro station,in City Walk,Downtown Dubai,Business Bay and Dubai Marina recorded average rental growth rates of 55.4%,49.7%,20.8%and 15.1%from Q1 2018 to Q4 2022respectively.Citywide residential rents growth bet

32、ween Q1 2018 and Q4 2022-4.1%Rental growth of apartments between Q1 2018 and Q4 20225.7%Figure 4:Average residential rental growth by proximity,Q1 2018 Q4 2022Source:CBRE Research/REIDIN-4.1%0.9%-0.5%11.7%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%Dubai Average0 to 5-minute walkingdistance5 t

33、o 10-minute walkingdistance10 to 15-minute walkingdistance10 2023 CBRE,INC.RESEARCHResidentialThe Dubai Metro Report 2023Residential Rents,AED/SQ.FT.Residential Rents,AED/SQ.FT.11 2023 CBRE,INC.RESEARCHResidentialThe Dubai Metro Report 2023Rental Market PerformanceFigure 5:Rental market performance,

34、By Community,Properties within a 15-minute walk to a metro station5.7%-6.0%2.5%86.9%-16.7%20.8%55.4%-34.9%49.7%15.1%-35.9%-13.0%33.6%-9.1%-1.2%12.0%-120%-70%-20%30%80%AverageAl Barsha FirstAl FurjanAl KifafBarsha HeightsBusiness BayCity WalkDiscovery GardensDowntown DubaiDubai MarinaGreen Community

35、EastJebel Ali DowntownJumeirah Beach ResidenceJumeirah Lake TowersThe GreensTrade Center SecondSource:CBRE Research/REIDIN49.7%Average rental growth of properties located in Downtown Dubai within a 15-minute walking distance from the metro station between Q1 2018 to Q4 2022AED 148Average rent per sq

36、uare foot for apartments located in Downtown Dubai as of Q4 2022AED 207Average rental rate per square foot in Downtown Dubai for properties within a 15-minute walk of a metro station as at Q4 202212 2023 CBRE,INC.RESEARCHResidentialThe Dubai Metro Report 2023Development ImplicationsDubai residents r

37、emain very reliant on personal cars as the primary mode of transport,where latest estimates suggest that five in ten residents own a car,compared to around one and a half in ten in Singapore and three in ten in London.However,as its population continues to increase,its socioeconomic profiles normali

38、se,its built environment matures and the city becomes more densely populated,we expect that reliance on the Dubai Metro will only increase.After a surge in population post COVID,we have already seen ridership increase to 225.1 million,up 10.9%from its 2019 total.We expect ridership to continue to in

39、crease rapidly,particularly as congestion in the city becomes more acute,where in 2022 road users spent more than an additional day and seven hours in traffic expected to increase to 5.8 million by 2040,and limited development opportunities in key communities within the vicinity of a metro station,w

40、hich have already seen marked increases in population(figure 6),we expect that developers will have to look towards development opportunities in more nascent communities with TOD likely to become an increasingly key component going forward.with efficient commuting are a key priority of the plan,deve

41、lopers can utilise our findings as a guide to how existing developments have performed given their attributes.Our findings show that developments within a 15-minute proximity to metro stations can outperform the wider market,but only if the development encompasses the right amenities and suitable ur

42、ban infrastructure.This entails a number of different factors alongside proximity to an efficient transit system,including but not limited to walkable,scooter and cycle-friendly neighbourhoodsand mixed-use and non-concentric developments.In Dubai,there are already a number of master developments whi

43、ch are planned in such a manner and preliminary data show that despite their emerging status,they are already achieving above market prices and rents,even in nascent locations.Finally,in the long-term,these increased values can also help-connected system and further improve the resilience of the env

44、ironment.Total number of metro riders in 2022225.1min 20213.5mAnticipated population levels by 20405.8m9.0%21.4%16.9%10.5%13.7%11.9%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%Dubai AverageBusiness BayDowntown DubaiJumeirah LakeTowersDubai MarinaJebel Ali FirstFigure 6:Population growth by community,2018Figure 6:Po

45、pulation growth by community,2018-20212021Source:CBRE Research/Macrobond13 2023 CBRE,INC.RESEARCHResidentialThe Dubai Metro Report 2023ContactsMiddle East Taimur KhanHead of Research+971 52 281 Tatiana El BaziResearch Analyst+971 58 593 Michael YoungHead of Advisory&Transactions+971 56 603 Michael H

46、eitmann Head of Consulting+971 50 79 46 Lindsay McQuillanHead of Property Management+971 52 640 Daniel McCullochHead of Valuation+971 50 656 Ali ManzoorHead of Hotels&Tourism+971 58 149 ScottKeaneyHead of Project Management+971 52 640 Mehdi AliouatHead of Marketing&Communications+971 52 1005 2023.CB

47、RE and the CBRE logo are registered trademarks of CBRE Group,Inc.,registered in the United States and/or its affiliated or related companies in other countries.All other marks displayed on this document are the property of their respective owners.Use of them does not imply any affiliation with or en

48、dorsement by them.All information included herein pertaining to CBRE including but not limited to its operations,employees,technology and clients are proprietary and confidential,and are supplied with the understanding that they will be held in confidence and not disclosed to third parties without t

49、he prior written consent of CBREThe information contained herein is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals,and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.The material,including projections,has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable.While we do

50、not doubt their accuracy,we have not verified them and make no guarantee,warranty or representation about them.It is your responsibility to confirm independently their accuracy and completeness.Global Research Richard Barkham,Ph.D.,MRICS Global Chief Economist&Head of RHenry Chin,Ph.D.Global Head of Investor Thought Leadership&Head of Research,APAC.hkAbhinav JoshiHead of Research,India,Middle East and North Africaabhinav.joshicbre.co.in