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1、June 2023Brian Collie,Gang Xu,Chen Yu,Nicholas Ge,Haixu WangHitting the Road:New Energy HDTs Bright FutureContentsExecutive Summary 11.New Energy HDTs Are the Future 22.Battery Electric HDTs Are Gaining Traction 63.Two Technology Trends:Zero Emissions and High-level Intelligence 114.The Growing Batt

2、ery Electric HDT Ecosystem 25Boston Consulting GroupJune 2023Executive SummaryThe global new energy heavy-duty truck(HDT)market has a promising future,particu-larly the battery electric HDT market.The battery electric HDT industry has prospered in both China and the US,and market players are diving

3、in to offer a range of solutions.Battery electric HDTs will remain the major technology for new energy HDTs in the short to medium term.Meanwhile,the majority of HDTs are used for short-haul journeys in both China and the US.New energy HDTs,especially battery electric HDTs,are sufficient for most he

4、avy-duty trucking use cases.As a battery electric HDT ecosystem of diverse policy support and accelerated infrastructure construction takes shape,the industry will predictably see growth at scale.The new energy transformation from diesel HDTs represents both an opportunity and a challenge for the wh

5、ole industry.We believe that,with the joint efforts of stakeholders across the industry,the mass production,commercialization,and high-level intelligence development of new energy HDTs will proceed at pace,driving both green economy and sustainable development.Hitting the Road:New Energy HDTs Bright

6、 FutureBoston Consulting GroupJune 2023Hitting the Road:New Energy HDTs Bright Future21.New Energy HDTs Are the FutureWith the increasingly pronounced effects of global warming and the depletion of conven-tional fossil fuels,industries across the board are exploring green growth and sustainable deve

7、lopment.The commercial vehicle industry is no exception:companies are aggressively pursuing the research,development,and commercialization of new energy vehicles(NEVs),particularly for heavy-duty trucks(HDTs),a key fuel-guzzler and polluter.(See Exhibit 1.)As the total cost of ownership(TCO)of new e

8、nergy HDTs drops,traditional OEMs and new forces are proactively entering the market,boosting its prospects for the future.HDTs are characterized by high fuel consumption and heavy pollution due to their reliance on diesel fuel,high mileage,and a high fuel consumption rate.(See Exhibit 2.)In China,H

9、DTs account for only about 3%of the national vehicle parc1,but the carbon emissions of one diesel HDT are equivalent to those of nearly 100 passenger vehicles2.Furthermore,diesel HDTs produce a large amount of nitrogen oxides(NOx)and particulate matter(PM),accounting for 85%and 65%of the total vehic

10、le emissions respectively3.According to the provisions of the United Nations Paris Agreement,the average global temperature increase should be limited to 1.5C.The IPCC4 special report on global warming of 1.5C further 1 Ministry of Public Security of China and China Automobile Dealers Association(CA

11、DA).2 Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation(iCET).3 Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China.4 United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC).Heavy-duty Truck(GVW12T)Medium-duty Truck(4.5TGVW12T)Light-duty Truck(1.8TGVW4.5T)Mini Truck(GVW1.8T)Key focusChinaUSClass 78(GV

12、W11.8T)Class 36(4.5TGVW11.8T)Class 12(GVW4.5T)Exhibit 1|Truck Classification in China and the USSource:Ministry of Public Security of China;US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration(NHTSA);BCG analysis.Note:GVW=gross vehicle weight.Boston Consulting GroupJune 2023Hitting the Road:New Energy

13、HDTs Bright Future3clarifies that,to achieve this goal,man-made carbon dioxide emissions should be reduced by 45%by 2030,and net zero emissions should be achieved by 2050.For its part,the Chinese government has enacted“dual carbon”goals5 and issued relevant policies,such as the China VI Emission Sta

14、ndard6,to further restrict the emissions of internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicles,and it has continued to introduce zero-emission HDT incentives to reduce pollution.Therefore,the development of new energy HDTs will help bring about global net zero emissions and realize green,low-carbon,and sustain

15、able development.After years of unremitting efforts industry-wide,including battery cost reduction,battery energy density improvement,and infrastructure development,the TCO of new energy HDTs will continue to fall.In China,it is expected that the TCO of battery electric vehicles(BEVs)will reach pari

16、ty with diesel HDTs by 20242025,while fuel cell electric vehicles(FCEVs)will not achieve parity until 20272028 and even then,will remain more costly than BEVs.In the longer term,after 2030,new energy HDTs will significantly outcompete traditional diesel HDTs on cost,both in China and the US.(See Exh

17、ibit 3.)However,TCO is not static;it is closely impacted by the global political and economic environment.For example,the higher diesel prices in 2022 resulted in an even better short-term TCO economy for new energy HDTs than that for diesel HDTs.5 Carbon Peak by 2030 and Carbon Neutrality by 2060.6

18、 Incl.Limits and Measurement Methods for Emissions from Light-Duty Vehicles(CHINA VI),Limits and Measure-ment Methods for Emissions from Diesel Fueled Heavy-Duty Vehicles(CHINA VI).Carbon emission is determined by 3 factorsxx:diesel HDT/passenger vehicle Diesel HDTPassenger vehiclesThe carbon emissi

19、ons of 1 diesel HDT are equivalent tothose of nearly 100 passenger vehiclesHDTs produce 85%vehicle NOx emissions with only 3%of vehicle parcNOx85%China as an exampleOthers97%100%HDT3%Vehicle parcOthers15%Vehicle emission 100%FuelconsumptionCarbonemissionDrivingmileage10 x8x1.2x1 1100100Exhibit 2|Hea

20、vy-duty Trucking is a Major Source of Fuel Consumption and Carbon EmissionSource:Ministry of Public Security of China;China Automobile Dealers Association(CADA);Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation(iCET);BCG analysis.Boston Consulting GroupJune 2023Hitting the Road:New Energy HDTs Bright

21、Future4Developing new energy HDTs has become the market consensus in both China and the US.Not only traditional OEMs have introduced new energy HDT products;cross-track players,such as passenger vehicle OEMs and autonomous driving technology companies,have also proactively entered the new energy HDT

22、 field.(See Exhibit 4.)Unit:USD/km1ChinaUS1.61.41.2202420301.00.82022202620281.61.220300.81.01.42022202420262028TCO parity TCO parity TCO parity for battery electricand diesel HDTs in China2024/2025ETCO parity for battery electricand diesel HDTs in the US2023/2024EFCEVICEBEVExhibit 3|Total Cost of O

23、wnership(TCO)Trends in China and the USSource:BCG analysis.Note:TCO is calculated based on the data of large fleets.Under the standard operation of large fleets,the average diesel cost per kilometer for HDTs in China is close to that in the US.1 Assume the average annual mileage in both China and th

24、e US is 160,000 km.Not exhaustive USChinaNikolaTeslaGeelyBYDVolvoPaccarNavistarDaimlerFotonXCMGDongfengFAWYutongSanyTraditional HDT OEMsTraditional HDT OEMs with strong ICE business proactively exploring new energy HDT fieldOther OEMsNew energy vehicle and passenger vehicle OEMs entering new energy

25、HDT market as cross-track playersAD CompaniesAutonomous driving technology companies entering new energy HDT market as cross-track playersDeepway(A joint venture company by Baidu and Lionbridge)Windrose(A new energy HDT startup founded by former executives of Plus.ai)Hydron(A startup of hydrogen-pow

26、ered trucks by a co-founder of TuSimple)Source:Public information;BCG analysis.Exhibit 4|New Energy HDT Players in China and the US Boston Consulting GroupJune 2023Hitting the Road:New Energy HDTs Bright Future5In China,in contrast to the highly concentrated diesel HDT market,the new energy HDT mark

27、et,especially the battery electric HDT market,is thriving and fragmented,and no dominant players have yet emerged.Several new force players plan to develop battery electric HDT platforms,whose competitiveness should not be underestimated.In the US,not only established commercial vehicle manufacturer

28、s like Daimler,Paccar,and Volvo,but also new force players such as Nikola and Tesla,have launched battery electric HDT products.The diversification of the player landscape will further drive large-scale development of the new energy HDT industry.The penetration of zero-emission HDTs in China is set

29、for a rapid increase.In 2021,new energy HDT sales in China exceeded 10,000 units,although the penetration rate remained below 1%.By the end of 2022,new energy HDT sales reached over 25,000 units.BCG projects that 30%of the medium-and heavy-duty trucks sold in China by 2030 will be zero-emission truc

30、ks(battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell electric trucks,of which battery electric trucks will account for about 90%).(See Exhibit 5.)OEMs are proactively seeking opportunities in the zero-emission truck market,and are preparing for mass production in the near futureGovernment promotes zero-emissi

31、on truck adoption by subsidizing infrastructure construction and granting favorable right-of-wayChina VII Emission Standard is likely to further restrict emissions and set standards for carbon emissionDrivers2020203050%)of cargo in trucking transportation was on short-haul(under 100 miles or around

32、160 km per trip)routes,followed by long-haul(beyond 250 miles or around 400 km per trip)and medium-haul(100 miles to 250 miles or around 160 km to 400 km per trip)routes.Another survey conducted by the US Department of Commerce10,which calculated vehicle inventory 8 Research Institute of Highway,Min

33、istry of Transport of China,Analysis of Chinas Road Freight Industry based on Big Data(2020).9 US Department of Transportation,Freight Analysis Framework Version 4.5.1.10 US Department of Commerce,Bureau of the Census,2002 Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey,Microdata.Long haul(500 km)Medium haul(20050

34、0 km)Short haul(250 miles)Medium haul(100250 miles)Short haul(100 miles)Rangeper tripRelativevehiclecount Source:US Department of Transportation;US Department of Commerce;BCG analysis.Exhibit 10|The Use Cases of HDTs in the US(Class 78 Example)Boston Consulting GroupJune 2023Hitting the Road:New Ene

35、rgy HDTs Bright Future113.Two Technology Trends:Zero Emissions and High-level IntelligenceWe envision two major trends in the future development of HDT technology:one is zero emissions,which achieves carbon neutrality through the adoption of new energy technology;the other is high-level intelligence

36、,which boosts productivity through smart and autonomous solutions.Both trends together are pushing HDTs towards their ultimate formautonomous,highly intelligent,and zero-emission vehicles.R&D efforts address each of these aspects,but the two also facilitate each other.(See Exhibit 11.)High-level int

37、elligenceBoosting productivity through smart and autonomous solutionsTransition state:Zero-emission trucks with driversUltimately:Autonomous,intelligent,and zero-emission trucksCurrently:ICE trucks withhuman driversTransition state:AutonomousICE trucksZero emissionAchieving carbon neutrality through

38、 new energy technologySource:BCG analysis.Exhibit 11|The Development of HDT Technology1)Zero emissionsDue to the immature technology and limited volume,the currently available battery electric HDTs are mostly“retrofits”of diesel trucks.In the long run,however,developing purpose-built platforms for b

39、attery electric HDTs is necessary for performance optimi-zation,which is a consensus of leading HDT players.(See Exhibit 12.)Currently,most battery electric HDT products are“retrofits”of diesel trucks:with as slight change as possible to the existing diesel truck layout,an electric truck is built by

40、 replacing the ICE with an e-motor and adding one or multiple battery packs behind the cabin or by the sides of the vehicle frame.Given the lack of a mature supply chain and Boston Consulting GroupJune 2023Hitting the Road:New Energy HDTs Bright Future12the limited scale of battery electric HDTs,ret

41、rofitting makes sense for OEMs to accelerate BEV product launches at a reasonable cost.However,as a transitional solution,retrofitting stands in the way of more optimal product performance.For example,chassis space utilization and transmission efficiency are low;available cargo space is squeezed by

42、the battery behind the cab;the range is impacted due to the limited space for the battery pack.These issues thus compromise the productivity of retrofitted electric HDTs,leading to poor economics under working conditions.To address the wide-scale electrification of commercial vehicles,leading player

43、s are developing purpose-built platforms for battery electric HDTs,working on the e-drive layout,chassis construction,and cabin design in a systems-engineering approach to fully unlock the potential of battery electric HDTs.Below are the key aspects of innovation.E-drive systemElectrified diesel mod

44、els typically use a central e-drive,replacing the ICE with an e-motor,while retaining a traditional longitudinal drivetrain.This kind of central-direct drive solution is easier to implement,but it also has noticeable disadvantages,including heavy weight,large size,and low transmission efficiency.By

45、contrast,the purpose-built battery electric platforms allow for deeper optimization of the e-drive system.A flat-front cab over truck design with high drag coefficientA slightly streamlined cabin shape with lower drag coefficientThe bullet-head cabin with a lower center of gravity and further reduce

46、d drag coefficientThe power system of the fuel vehicle is the engine,which is located at the bottom of the cabCargo space is squeezed by the battery behind the cab,and driving range is impacted due to the limited space to place the battery packIntegrated e-axles or distributed e-drives are more comp

47、act and have higher transmission efficiencyPoor utilization of chassis space and low transmission efficiencyOptimized e-drive layout leaves larger space to integrate the battery pack into the box-beam frame,allowing for longer rangeCentral drive layout with a“ladder frame”chassisA conventional diese

48、l truckAn electric retrofit of diesel trucksA purpose-built battery electric HDT1.02.03.0IllustrativeSource:BCG analysis.Exhibit 12|A Comparison of ICE Platforms,Electric Retrofits,and Purpose-built Battery Electric HDT PlatformsBoston Consulting GroupJune 2023Hitting the Road:New Energy HDTs Bright

49、 Future13The e-drive system of commercial vehicles is evolving towards integrated and compact solutions,such as integrated e-axles and distributed e-drive systems.E-axles for battery electric HDTs have been launched by companies such as Dongfeng Dana,ZF,AVL,AxleTech.Distributed e-drive solutions(whe

50、el-side motors and wheel-hub motors)are still in the early stage of development.Currently,purpose-built battery electric HDTs tend to use e-axles,which integrate e-motor,gear reducer,and driveshaft all in one axle.Compared with the central e-drive,the e-axle provides more compact packaging and lower

51、 efficiency loss.For battery electric HDTs,an integrated e-drive system leaves more room for battery packs and reduces vehicle weight,boosting power performance and energy efficiency.(See Exhibit 13.)EngineFrameDrivetrainEngine/motorPower sourceE-motorExample:battery packs behind the cabinFuel tankB

52、attery(in the box-beam frame)ClutchGearboxShaftShaftExample:typical diesel HDTsExample:purpose-built battery electric HDTsPowerelectronics ReducerBattery(above the ladder frame)DifferentialDifferentialE-axle(integrated e-motor,power electronics,and transmission)1.02.03.0Source:Literature research;BC

53、G analysis.Exhibit 13|The Development of HDT E-drive Systems and Chassis ConstructionAnother significant trend in e-drive development is the application of high-voltage platforms.At present,electric vehicles mostly run on either 400V platforms(passenger vehicles)or 600V platforms(commercial vehicles

54、),while the next generation of electric vehicles is shifting towards 800V to 1000V high-voltage architectures.Running at such high voltages makes fast charging possible:with DC fast-charge piles,an 800V electric vehicle can enjoy unmatched charging speeds.Battery electric HDTs usually carry a large-

55、capacity battery pack,so fast charging is particularly critical to improve Boston Consulting GroupJune 2023Hitting the Road:New Energy HDTs Bright Future14their operational efficiency.In addition,the high-voltage platform also improves the overall efficiency of the e-drive system:in a high-voltage a

56、rchitecture,the currents are lower,thus reducing the power loss of the entire system.In this way,the driving range is extended with the same battery capacity,and the power performance can be enhanced.The 800V platform was initially launched on Porsche Taycan in 2019 and then added to a handful of re

57、cent passenger vehicle models.Commercial vehicle OEMs and suppliers also have 800V products in the pipeline.For example,BorgWarner launched an 800V electric motor for hybrid and electric commercial vehicles in 2021 and is expected to kick off production in 202414.(See Exhibit 14.)In addition to high

58、-voltage platforms tailored for vehicles,high-power fast charging also requires the deployment of extreme fast charging(XFC)piles as the essential infrastructure.14 BorgWarner Launches 800-volt Electric Motor for the Commercial Vehicle Segment https:/ GTQ6/A6 e-tronLucid AirAion VLYRIQG9EV modelEV m

59、odelSPorscheAudiLucidGACCadillacXPengLI AutoNIOTesla 2019SOP of the worlds first 800V model,Porsche Taycan,based on J1 platform 2023Expected launch of Porsche Macan based on 800V PPE platform 2020SOP of Audi E-tron GT based on J1 platform 2023Expected launch of Audi Q6/A6 e-tron based on 800V PPE pl

60、atform 2021SOP of 900V Lucid Air based on LEAP platform 2021SOP of Aion V based on super-fast-charging battery technology 2022SOP of Cadillac LYRIQ based on BEV3 platform 2022SOP of S HI equipped with 800V platform 2022SOP of XPeng G9 equipped with 800V platform 2023Expected launch of an EV model eq

61、uipped with 800V platform 2024Expected launch of an EV model equipped with 800V platform Planned battery electric HDT Semi might be equipped with 800V platform(Time of delivery TBD)Examples202020212022202320242025+2019ARCFOXPVCVSource:Literature research;BCG analysis.Exhibit 14|The Introduction of 8

62、00V Platforms on Mainstream ModelsBoston Consulting GroupJune 2023Hitting the Road:New Energy HDTs Bright Future15High-power XFC solutions that enable higher charging voltage(from 400V to 800V 1,000V)and peak power(from 120 kW to 480 kW)emerge with the development of high-voltage vehicle platforms.P

63、ioneers in passenger vehicles,such as GAC Aion and XPeng,already launched 480 kW XFC piles,along with high-voltage vehicle models.For commercial vehicles,CharIN,a leading global association committed to developing and promoting standardized XFC solutions for commercial vehicles,unveiled a working pr

64、ototype of the megawatt charging system(MCS)for heavy-duty vehicles in June 2022.XFC is expected to significantly improve charging efficiency by reducing the charging time to only a few minutes,on par with refueling.Technological innovations are critical to XFC piles.On the one hand,to support the h

65、igher power outputs of XFC piles,a diversified portfolio of charger modules(for example,a combination of 20/30/40 kW,instead of a pure 20 kW solution)is necessary.DC charging piles typically consist of multiple charger modules that are connected.On the other hand,thermal management is essential for

66、dealing with the massive heat during the fast-charging process,hence XFC piles shift to liquid cooling tech-nology,instead of conventional air cooling,to ensure safety,reduce noise,and make maintenance easier.Liquid cooling technology is seen on Teslas V3 Superchargers(launched in 2019)and GAC Aions

67、 A480 Superchargers(debuted in 2021).Chassis constructionTo fit the central drive layout(also known as FR layout:front-engine,rear-wheel drive),diesel trucks are normally built on a“ladder frame”chassis consisting of two longitudinal beams and several cross beams.If battery electric HDTs were built

68、on the same chassis design,it would be difficult to find adequate battery space.Consequently,retrofitted electric HDTs often place a large battery box on the frame behind the cab,which is an inefficient use of the chassis space and encroaches on the cargo space.The chassis construction of battery el

69、ectric HDTs can also be further optimized by redesigning the e-drive system.For example,by getting rid of the longitudinal drive-train and restructuring the frame structure,the battery pack(s)can be placed flat on the chassis.(See Exhibit 13.)This is an improvement on placing the battery pack behind

70、 the cab for several reasons:By placing the battery flat,the vehicle can hold a larger pack,enabling a longer range and freeing up more space for cargo,ensuring crucial productivity for the HDT.Boston Consulting GroupJune 2023Hitting the Road:New Energy HDTs Bright Future16 With a structural box-bea

71、m frame of the battery pack(s)placed inside,it makes the chassis structure stronger,which not only protects the battery box but also takes full advantage of the frames load-bearing capacity.It lowers the center of gravity of the vehicle,reducing rollover risk and improving vehicle handling.It makes

72、a unified exterior design possible.Body/cabin designR&D improvements to purpose-built electric HDTs also include redesigning the vehicle body to optimize its aerodynamic performance.Without the legacy of the conventional cab-over style,purpose-built electric HDTs are able to further improve energy e

73、fficiency by adopting a cab shape with a low drag coefficient and utilizing lightweight materials for the vehicle body.(See Exhibits 15,16,and 17.)For example,at present,the drag coefficient of mass-produced cab-over trucks in China is typically 0.55 to 0.65.With a bullet head and one centered seat,

74、a global leading OEM claims to have reduced the drag coefficient to 0.36.Illustrative Flat-front cab-over design,drag coefficient Cd=0.55-0.65 The ICE is placed below the cabin A streamlined cabin shape with a slightly lower drag coefficient The battery box is placed behind the cabin due to retrofit

75、ting Bullet-head cabin design,drag coefficient Cd=0.36 With the purpose-built platform,battery pack is placed flat in the chassis1.02.03.0Source:Literature research;BCG analysis.Exhibit 15|Cabin DesignExterior(Side View)Boston Consulting GroupJune 2023Hitting the Road:New Energy HDTs Bright Future17

76、Illustrative1.02.03.0Source:Literature research;BCG analysis.Exhibit 16|Cabin DesignExterior(Front View)Illustrative 1 driver seat+1 passenger seat Equipped with a sleeper for the two drivers taking turns to rest Crowded cockpit 1 driver seat+1 passenger seat Equipped with a sleeper for the two driv

77、ers taking turns to rest Crowded cockpit 1 central driver seat Equipped with a minibar and a folding sleeper Spacious cockpit1.02.03.0Source:Literature research;BCG analysis.Exhibit 17|Cabin DesignInteriorBoston Consulting GroupJune 2023Hitting the Road:New Energy HDTs Bright Future182)High-level in

78、telligenceAutonomous driving and intelligent vehicle technologies will significantly boost the productivity of freight transportation by achieving safe,reliable,and efficient trucking operations without human drivers.Key technology levers include X-by-wire,whose new maturity will pave the way for hi

79、ghly autonomous applications in heavy commercial vehicles;and centralized E/E architecture,which makes the“software-defined vehicle”possible by enabling continuous upgrades throughout the vehicle lifecycle.Autonomous driving(AD)The road freight industry in China has long faced challenges such as tru

80、ck driver shortages,high fuel costs,and frequent accidents.This makes autonomous trucking a revolutionary technology that once widely applied,will not only deliver tangible cost savings but also improve the overall safety of road traffic.Fuel and labor costs currently account for more than half of t

81、he TCO of diesel trucks in China;the remainder comprises insurance and taxes,vehicle purchase cost,toll and administration,depreciation,repair and maintenance,etc.Therefore,from the cost perspective,the biggest saving of autonomous trucking is undoubtedly on driver labor coststhis can only be achiev

82、ed by L4 driverless operation,as L2+/L3 systems still require a driver.(See Exhibit 18.)The second greatest cost reduction Traditional drivingAutonomous drivingDefinitiondescriptionManual Drivers fully control the vehicle,with assistance from alerts and protection systemAuxiliary driving Auxiliary d

83、riving system can control either steering wheel or speed Other driving behaviors are done by driversPartial autonomous driving Auxiliary driving system can control both steering wheel and speed Other driving behaviors are done by driversAutonomous driving under conditions Autonomous driving system d

84、rives Drivers step in based on system requestsHighly autonomous Autonomous driving system drives Drivers dont have to respond Limited roads and conditionsAutonomous driving Autonomous driving system drives Drivers can take control in available conditions Adapted to all roads and conditions Automatic

85、 emergency braking Blind spot warning Lane departure warning Adaptive Cruise Control Lane Keep Assist Lane Center Control Intelligent Cruise Assist(Lane centering+Adaptive cruise control)Parking assist Traffic jam chauffeur Highway chauffeur Local driverless taxis Autonomous driving trucks Pedals/st

86、eering wheel may or may not be installed Features same as L4,but can drive everywhere in all conditionsExecutingdriving behaviorSupervisingdriving environmentEmergency step-inUsage conditionsSystemN/ALimited road conditionsLimited road conditionsLimited road conditionsLimited road conditionsAll road

87、 conditionsDriversExample featuresL0L1(ADAS)L2(ADAS)L3L4(Self-driving)L5(Self-driving)Source:US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration(NHTSA);Society of Automotive Engineers(SAE);BCG analysis.Exhibit 18|The Levels of Autonomous DrivingBoston Consulting GroupJune 2023Hitting the Road:New Ener

88、gy HDTs Bright Future19lever is fuel efficiency,delivered by the AD system which optimizes the speed,route,and driving behaviors.Furthermore,a mature AD system will in theory reduce the accident rate,improve safety,and save insurance costs.Leading autonomous trucking players had already kicked off m

89、ass production and operation of L2+heavy-duty trucks in 2021,while L4 trucks are still in the testing phase,and mass production of purpose-built L4 trucks(for AD)is expected to start around 2025.X-by-wire technologyX-by-wire technology is a prerequisite for high-level autonomous driving at the hard-

90、ware level.X-by-wire refers to the use of electronic signals for the direct control of actuators(including drive,brake,and steering systems)which was traditionally achieved by mechanical,hydraulic or pneumatic linkages.(See Exhibit 19.)SensingDecisionActuationX-by-wire system isessential forautonomo

91、us trucking Plannedmotions+Instructions tocontrollersElectronicsignals Electronicsignals Electronic signals:the status andoutput of actuators DbWBbWSbWHMIVehicle statusExternalenvironment The advantages of X-by-wire systems Improved control accuracy and linearity Reduced delay between action and act

92、uation Reliability ensured by redundancy designReplacing the mechanical,hydraulic or pneumatic linkageswith electronic signals Source:Literature research;BCG analysis.Exhibit 19|The Fundamentals of X-by-wire SystemsBoston Consulting GroupJune 2023Hitting the Road:New Energy HDTs Bright Future20Auton

93、omous driving relies on the efficient cooperation of the sensing,decision,and actuation layers for vehicle handling.It is essential for autonomous vehicles to have a high-precision,fast-response,safe,and stable actuation system,which requires X-by-wire technology.It is a challenge for traditional ac

94、tuation systems to deliver precise control of AD(especially since HDTs are more difficult to control than passenger vehicles),and they are not well-suited to redundancy design,and are unable to decouple software from hardware.Therefore,the X-by-wire system is a necessary infrastructure for the imple

95、mentation of autonomous trucking.The key critical elements of X-by-wire chassis are drive-by-wire(DbW),brake-by-wire(BbW),and steer-by-wire(SbW).DbW is mature and widely applied,BbW is entering mass production,but SbW is not yet mature15.In particular,X-by-wire products for commercial vehicles are n

96、ot as mature as those for passenger vehicles,hence the current autonomous trucks are mostly adding by-wire control functions to traditional actuatorswithout ready-made mature and reliable X-by-wire solutions for trucks,it is necessary to adopt retrofitting or partially by-wire products.In this sense

97、,truck OEMs,Tier 1 suppliers,and AD companies need to jointly develop and commercialize the X-by-wire chassis for HDTs.Battery electric truck platforms are more compatible with higher-quality X-by-wire systems than diesel truck platforms,making the transition to autonomous driving seamless by saving

98、 a lot of retrofitting efforts.This is because the major actuators of battery electric platforms have already adopted electronic control to process instructions,which naturally reduces latency and improves linearity.Meanwhile,autonomous driving systems of L3 and above require redundancy on safety-cr

99、itical functions.Developing battery electric truck platforms from scratch also provides an opportunity for truck makers to configure redundant designs on control systems with more stringent reliability,to better address the demand for autonomous trucks.15 LI Liang,WANG Xiangyu,CHENG Shuo,CHEN Xiang,

100、HUANG Chao,PING Xianyao&WEI Lingtao.(2020).Technolo-gies of control-by-wire and dynamic domain control for automotive chassis.Automotive Safety and Energy,11(2),143-160.Boston Consulting GroupJune 2023Hitting the Road:New Energy HDTs Bright Future21Due to the heavy loads and harsh working conditions

101、 involved,HDTs typically use air-brake systems.The existing brake-by-wire solution,called electronic braking system(EBS),is based on the traditional pneumatic system,with an added electronic control function1.EBS is not a completely brake-by-wire system,because although it is electronically controll

102、ed in the first half of the braking process(from the brake pedal to ECU),the second half(through the air pipes to the brake chambers)is still an air brake that relies on pneumatic links with latency in the boosting process.1 LI Liang,WANG Xiangyu,CHENG Shuo,CHEN Xiang,HUANG Chao,PING Xianyao&WEI Lin

103、gtao.(2020).Technologies of control-by-wire and dynamic domain control for automotive chassis.Automotive Safety and Energy,11(2),143-160.2 WANG Huaping,Introduction of EMB and brake-by-wire for Commercial Vehicles,Haldex VIE(Shanghai)EMB System Co.The next generation of brake-by-wire for commercial

104、vehicles is electro-mechanical brake(EMB),that is,where the system entirely eliminates the air pipes,the master cylinder,and vacuum boosters;and instead,the e-motor directly drives the brake caliper.Therefore,EMB is a completely brake-by-wire system.It overcomes the inherent shortcomings of commerci

105、al vehicles using compressed air as the control medium for braking2,significantly improving the response speed and shortening the braking distance.(See Exhibit 20.)The Development of Brake-by-wire(BbW)Systems for Commercial VehiclesElectronic signalsConventionalcompressed-air-brake system Brake-by-w

106、ire system(EMB2 as an example)Air pipesBrake chambersElectronic braking system(EBS1 as an example)Air pipesBrake chambersPneumatic linkagesBrake pedal:Mechanical signalsBrake pedal:Mechanical signalsPneumaticlinkagesPneumatic linkagesPneumatic linkagesBrake pedal:Mechanical signalsEMB ECUWheel brake

107、 modulesEBS ECUElectronic signalsElectronic signalsElectronicsignalsElectronicsignalsElectronicsignalsBrakepedalsensorADsystemElectronicsignalsADsystemBrakepedalsensor1.02.03.0Source:Gasgoo;Literature research;BCG analysis.1 Electronic braking system.2 Electro-mechanical brake.Exhibit 20|The Develop

108、ment of Brake-by-wire(BbW)Systems for Commercial VehiclesBoston Consulting GroupJune 2023Hitting the Road:New Energy HDTs Bright Future22HDTs typically leverage hydraulic-powered steering systems due to their heavy loads;currently,penetration of electronic-powered steering in HDTs is low.Conventiona

109、l hydraulic power steering(HPS)systems work by using a hydraulic pump driven by the vehicles engine to amplify the steering power.Electro-hydraulic power steering(EHPS)systems use an electric motor instead of the engine.Electric power steering(EPS)further eliminates the 1 LI Liang,WANG Xiangyu,CHENG

110、 Shuo,CHEN Xiang,HUANG Chao,PING Xianyao&WEI Lingtao.(2020).Technologies of control-by-wire and dynamic domain control for automotive chassis.Automotive Safety and Energy,11(2),143-160.hydraulic system,with the electric motor directly powering the mechanical steering gears.The mainstream steering so

111、lution for autonomous trucking at present is EHPS-based systems with redundant electronic control added1.As high-output EPS products gradually become available,EPS is expected to be widely applied as the next-generation steer-by-wire solution for self-driving commercial vehicles.(See Exhibit 21.)The

112、 Development of Steer-by-wire(SbW)Systems for Commercial VehiclesElectronic signalsHydraulic/mechanical linkages1.02.03.0EHPSElectro-hydraulic power steeringEPSElectric power steeringHPSHydraulic power steering Reductiongear(simplified)RackPinionSteeringwheel Steeringcolumn Reductiongear,etc.1RackPi

113、nionSteeringwheel HydraulicSteeringcolumn PumpReductiongear,etc.1RackPinionSteeringwheel HydraulicSteeringcolumn PumpSensor4Sensor2MotorMotorSensor3Sensor2EngineECUECUSource:Literature research;BCG analysis.1 Also include rotary control valve and integral power cylinder.2 Vehicle speed sensor.3 Torq

114、ue sensor.4 Steering angle sensor and torque sensor.Exhibit 21|The Development of Steer-by-wire(SbW)Systems for Commercial VehiclesBoston Consulting GroupJune 2023Hitting the Road:New Energy HDTs Bright Future23 Centralized E/E architectureIn the era of software-defined vehicles,E/E architecture,as

115、the critical infrastructure of intelligent connectivity and autonomous driving,is becoming more centralized.(See Exhibit 22.)A conventional distributed E/E architecture involves many electronic control units(ECUs)in the vehicle.They are connected by thousands of meters of wire harnesses,each of them

116、 supporting a single function.They are usually“black boxes”prefabricat-ed by suppliers,and OEMs can only make function calls through an interface.To add new functions to the vehicle,additional ECUs are needed.The development of vehicle intelligence inevitably means demand for more sensors,more compl

117、ex algorithms,faster communication,and more frequent function updates.Merely increasing the number of ECUs is unsustainable,and neither deliv-ers the computing power required by AD of L4 and above,nor achieves stable and reliable function upgrades through over-the-air(OTA)updates.This is because,und

118、er a distributed E/E architecture,each ECUs computing power is independent and cannot be redeployed elsewhere.To build higher computing power,many ECUs need to match their computing power according to the peak demand,resulting in high costs.In addition,there are different versions of software in eac

119、h ECU,the system architecture is scattered,and OEMs have varying levels of access to each of the ECUs,Each function has its specific ECU(electronic control unit)ECUs are simplified through functional integrationEach function domain has a multi-core DCU(domain control unit)Domain centralizationDistri

120、butedmodular Distributedintegration Backup cameraMMI displayIVIDCUChassisDCUECUDCUGateway1.02.03.0Source:Bosch view on EEA development;BCG analysis.Exhibit 22|The Centralization of Vehicle E/E ArchitectureBoston Consulting GroupJune 2023Hitting the Road:New Energy HDTs Bright Future24which makes OTA

121、 upgrades nearly impossible.At the same time,the additional wire harness needed for excessive ECUs could overweigh the vehicle.Domain control units(DCUs)can address the aforementioned pain points.Domain centralization refers to the integration of the vehicles scattered functions into several functio

122、nal domains,such as AD/ADAS,in-vehicle infotainment(IVI),chassis,powertrain,and body.The architecture deploys more powerful DCU SoCs to centrally process a category of functions originally separately handled by each ECU.Such a centralized architecture has several advantages:Improved overall performa

123、nce and reliability of the systems.By leveraging the powerful SoCs of DCUs,intelligent functions such as autonomous driving and smart cockpit can be realized.Furthermore,OTA upgrades are more reliable after software and hardware are decoupled.Reduced HW/SW complexity.Integration facilitates a lightw

124、eight and opti-mized layout design for vehicles,by minimizing the number of ECUs,shortening the length of CAN bus cables,and reducing the weight of electronic systems.The intelligent development of HDTs is currently evolving from distributed to domain-centralized E/E architecture.In the short term,t

125、he adoption of DCUs should deliver autonomous driving and intelligent functions for commercial vehicles.In the longer term,depending on the maturity of the value chain,the domain-centralized E/E architecture may gradually iterate towards vehicle centralization.According to a study conducted by a Chi

126、nese heavy-duty truck OEM1,commercial vehicles at present carry an average of 25 ECUs with bus cables of 6 km in length,totaling over 70 kg in weight,and taking up a lot of space.With a 1 ZHAO Guanghui,DING Wanxing.(2020).An Analysis of the Setup and Application of Domain Control Units in Commercial

127、 Vehicle Architecture.Electronics World.domain-centralized E/E architecture of DCUs,the average number of ECUs per vehicle can be reduced to 16 with bus cables 3.7 km long,and a total weight of less than 44 kg,nearly 40%more streamlined than traditional E/E architecture.Case study:Boston Consulting

128、GroupJune 2023Hitting the Road:New Energy HDTs Bright Future254.The Growing Battery Electric HDT EcosystemThe mass commercialization of battery electric HDTs requires not only the involvement of OEMs but also the support of various ecosystem partners,including upstream suppliers(battery manufacturer

129、s in particular),charging/battery-swapping builders and operators,downstream HDT fleet customers,aftermarket service providers.With the introduction and implementation of a series of supporting policies,the ecosystem of the battery elec-tric HDT industry is becoming established,and the future is bri

130、ght.Currently,the penetration rate of battery electric HDTs in China is still less than 1%.This may be due to factors across the industry chain,such as range anxiety,high purchase cost,and inadequate infrastructure.Similarly,the development of new energy passenger vehi-cles has also undergone a rela

131、tively long period of market education,policy subsidies and purchase cost decline,to achieve a nearly 500-fold increase in sales over the past decade,from less than 10,000 units in 2012 to over 5 million units sold in 202216,thanks to the improving ecosystem.(See Exhibit 23.)16 China Association of

132、Automobile Manufacturers(CAAM).201920132015201220162014201720182020202120221771549210593257679271,1482,9305,273China new energy passenger vehicle sales(k units)NEV penetrationNEVs enjoy favorable policies such as unrestricted license plates and purchase tax exemption;in 2021,supply chain localizatio

133、n of foreign new force OEMs and promotion of cost-effective models by domestic OEMs further stimulated consumer purchasing willingness,sparking explosive growth in sales.xx%1%1%1%1%3%2%6%4%14%1%26%+82%+114%Source:China Passenger Car Association(CPCA);China Association of Automobile Manufacturers(CAA

134、M);BCG analysis.Note:New energy vehicles(NEVs)refers to BEVs and PHEVs.Exhibit 23|New Energy Passenger Vehicle Sales Volume and Penetration Rate in ChinaBoston Consulting GroupJune 2023Hitting the Road:New Energy HDTs Bright Future26To realize the large-scale commercialization of battery electric HD

135、Ts,industries across the chain must work together to build the ecosystem.(See Exhibit 24.)Regulation supportPower grid/energyEnergy storageFinancial/insuranceRaw materialrecyclingOEMR&D,vehicle mfg.OthersBattery leasing,recyclingAftermarketDownstreamMidstreamUpstreamTier 1E-powertrain,spare partsRM

136、supplierMineralmaterialsFleetLogistics,industrialO&MCharging,batteryswappingSource:BCG analysis.Exhibit 24|Ecosystem Players of the Battery Electric HDT Industry in China Firstly,the upstream industry includes all kinds of mineral material providers and Tier 1 suppliers(such as suppliers of e-powert

137、rains and other spare parts).Among these,battery manufacturers need to further cut battery prices while improving energy density,life span and safety,which are critical to improve downstream clients purchase willingness.Secondly,energy suppliers,charging stations,and battery swap stations also play

138、a key role across the battery electric HDT ecosystem.Both charging and battery-swap-ping models are designed to minimize range anxiety in the daily operation of battery electric HDTs.With improvements to grid infrastructure,fiscal support,technical standards,etc.,the construction of energy infrastru

139、ctures will continue at pace,boost-ing the confidence of HDT OEMs and end customers.Meanwhile,compared to traditional diesel HDTs,the purchase cost of battery electric HDTs is still relatively high.Therefore,in addition to vehicle sales to fleet customers,diversified services such as battery leasing

140、/recycling,financial services,second-hand truck trading,and aftermarket services are also key pillars of the business model of battery electric HDTs.The comprehensive offerings throughout the whole vehicle lifecycle could also accelerate the commercialization of the battery electric HDTs.Boston Cons

141、ulting GroupJune 2023Hitting the Road:New Energy HDTs Bright Future27The Chinese government issued a number of policies covering a range of aspects to en-courage the development of the battery electric HDT industry,such as purchase subsidies and flexible right-of-way.Some municipal governments have

142、introduced favorable right-of-way management,such as applying flexible time frames and exemptions from road section restrictions for new energy HDTs,to promote them as a green alternative to diesel trucks.The US government has also introduced a raft of policies to support the develop-ment of battery

143、 electric HDTs.The federal,state,and local governments have provided multi-level purchase subsidies.Meanwhile,by introducing several supporting policies including electricity charge reduction and improved driver access to reduce the use cost of battery electric trucks,state governments have further

144、promoted the development of a clean-energy economy.In China,to encourage the construction of charging stations and battery swap stations,the government has introduced a number of guidelines.As of 2022,only around 100 battery swap stations were built nationwide17,with limited coverage and density,ind

145、icating enor-mous potential for future growth.According to the latest regulations issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology(MIIT)at the end of 2021,11 cities were selected to be NEV battery-swapping pilots,with three of those cities carrying out HDT-specific pilots.It is estimate

146、d that these pilots will see over 100,000 battery-swapping vehicles hit the roads and over 1,000 battery swap stations established.With the favorable environment,the relevant stakeholders have responded positively to the construction of battery swap stations,including green power companies,oil compa

147、-nies,battery swap station operators,OEMs,and battery manufacturers.Leading energy companies such as State Power Investment,GCL Energy,and Sinopec have published plans for the construction of battery swap stations through 2025.Sany Heavy Truck,an HDT OEM,established its own battery-swapping business

148、 and introduced battery swap stations that accommodated Sany HDT products at the end of 2021.In the future,all parties will work on standardizing the process of the battery-swapping model and accele-rate its adoption nationwide.17 China Construction Machine Association(CCMA).Boston Consulting GroupJ

149、une 2023Hitting the Road:New Energy HDTs Bright Future28About the AuthorsBrian Collie is a managing director and senior partner at Boston Consulting Group(BCG).He is the global lead for the automotive and mobility sector.He is also a core member of the Industrial Goods,Operations and Global Advantag

150、e practices.Gang Xu is a managing director and senior partner at BCG and leader of BCGs Industrial Goods practice in Greater China.Chen Yu is a managing director and partner at BCG and leader of BCGs Technology,Media and Telecommunications practice in Greater China.Nicholas Ge is a managing director

151、 and partner at BCG.He leads the machinery and equipment sector in Greater China.Haixu Wang is a managing director and partner at BCG.He is a core member of the leadership of Technology,Media and Telecommunications practice in Greater China.Boston Consulting GroupJune 2023Hitting the Road:New Energy

152、 HDTs Bright Future29 Boston Consulting Group 2023.All rights reserved.6/23About Boston Consulting GroupBoston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most important challenges and capture their greatest opportunities.BCG was the pioneer in busi-ness strategy w

153、hen it was founded in 1963.Today,we work closely with clients to embrace a transformational approach aimed at benefiting all stakeholdersempowering organizations to grow,build sustainable competitive advantage,and drive positive societal impact.Our diverse,global teams bring deep industry and functi

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