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1、Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2023 EditionI N S I G H T R E P O R TJ U N E 2 0 2 3In collaboration with AccentureImages:Getty Images 2023 World Economic Forum.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means,including photocopying a

2、nd recording,or by any information storage and retrieval system.Disclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project,insight area or interaction.The findings,interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitat

3、ed and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum,nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders.ContentsForeword 3Executive summary 41 Introduction 62 Framework 83 Overall results 113.1 Transition scores

4、133.2 Transition momentum 154 Sub-index and dimension trends 194.1 System performance 204.2 Transition readiness 304.3 A closer look at innovation 315 Conclusion 336 Country performance profiles 34Appendices 61A1 Methodology 61A2 Country ETI score evolution,2014-2023 62Contributors 64Endnotes 66Fost

5、ering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition2ForewordThe transformation of the global energy system is well under way.In just over a decade,investments across multiple forms of renewable energy have overtaken investments in fossil fuels.Energy and climate policies now take centre stage in domestic

6、 and international affairs.The geopolitical balance of energy has shifted significantly,and new superpowers have emerged in renewable energy component manufacturing,critical minerals and clean technology.The frontiers of energy innovation have been progressively redefined,and thousands of entreprene

7、urs are working to remake this huge industry.Enabled by mounting scientific evidence,a steady rhythm of extreme weather events and decades of awareness campaigns,climate consciousness is embedded in the public psyche.The Energy Transition Index(ETI)has supported decision-makers through this period,w

8、ith a robust,consistent and comprehensive framework and a transparent fact base.Despite the strong momentum,the energy transition has been challenged by near-term exigencies.Following the COVID-19 pandemic,a combination of economic factors and supply chain constraints led to affordability challenges

9、,shortages and blackouts in different parts of the world.The recent energy crisis,a result of the Russia-Ukraine war,is the most severe in decades,leading to the highest levels of inflation in decades,a cost-of-living crisis and macroeconomic instabilities.While investments and policy measures for e

10、nergy transition have amplified despite the volatile environment,the delicate balance of the energy security architecture,and the adverse effects on vulnerable households and developing countries,demonstrate the importance of balancing the imperatives of security,equity and sustainability for an eff

11、ective energy transition.Considering todays context,we have updated the ETI framework to ensure its usefulness for decision-making.The revisions include the improved delineation of inclusiveness and equity,the reprioritization of energy security,the sharpening of the enabling environment scope,and t

12、he articulation of transition momentum to complement energy system performance and transition readiness to provide an in-depth view of how fast or slow a country is transitioning,beyond the snapshot values.The actions taken in the early years of this decade of delivery will be critical in ensuring t

13、hat strong,long-term ambition is supported by immediate progress.The focus needs to be on enhancing an equitable transition which has been traded off rather than enabled by the focus on security and sustainability.The energy transition must be made resilient to maintain speed under current volatilit

14、ies and during potential future domestic or international disruptions.Resilience needs to be built into the transition to maintain progress throughout ongoing and future disruptions as COVID-19 and the energy crisis will not be the only international events in the coming decade and beyond.Through th

15、is effort,the World Economic Forum encourages the sharing of best practices and the use of its platform for effective public-private collaboration to facilitate the energy transition process around the world.Muqsit Ashraf Global Strategy Lead,AccentureRoberto Bocca Head,Centre for Energy and Materia

16、ls;Member of the Executive Committee,World Economic ForumFostering Effective Energy Transition 2023 EditionJune 2023Fostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition3Executive summaryThe frontiers of the global energy transition are constantly shifting as countries attempt to emerge out of various

17、health,geopolitical and economic crises.The“polycrisis”has forced countries to reallocate resources and implement measures to address near-term energy security and affordability constraints.It has also provided an opportunity to think about how various aspects of the“energy triangle”have evolved.Equ

18、ity and inclusiveness evolved from focusing only on access to embracing sustained economic development.Security took a leap from ensuring supplies towards diversifying the energy mix.And sustainability now includes a wider form of clean energy beyond decarbonization,whereas transition readiness dema

19、nds more focus on regulatory and financial environments.Considering the changing needs of the energy frontier,the Energy Transition Index(ETI)framework has been revised this year to incorporate a wider approach of balancing the three imperatives of the energy triangle equity,security and sustainabil

20、ity while harnessing transition enablers effectively.The ETI benchmarks countries on their current energy system performance and provides a forward-looking measure of transition readiness.Over the past decade,the global ETI scores improved by 10%,supported by an increase of 19%in transition readines

21、s scores,but only a 6%increase in system performance scores.The Nordic countries(Sweden,Denmark,Norway and Finland)continue to maintain their top rankings,scoring highly on both system performance and transition readiness.A few countries,such as Kenya and Azerbaijan,jumped significantly in rank this

22、 year for making aggressive efforts towards transition readiness by improving their regulatory environment and infrastructure.Importantly,in the last decade,the worlds largest energy consumer,China,gained 43%approximately double the global average in its transition readiness scores,making its way in

23、to the top 20 as the only Asian country.This report spotlights certain countries accomplishing noticeable achievements or laying the groundwork for a robust energy transition(see section 6).This edition of the report refocuses on the need for urgent action towards the transition.Despite making progr

24、ess on decarbonization and improving on infrastructure,the world still falls short of achieving balanced progress on all aspects of the energy triangle.Thus,“transition momentum”has been incorporated as a measure to determine country progress on the system performance parameters.Only two countries I

25、ndia and Singapore are making advances on all aspects of energy system performance.The window of opportunity for the energy transition is closing fast.The limited number of countries simultaneously advancing across all aspects of the energy triangle highlights the challenges that countries face in p

26、rogressing along their energy transition pathways.The following themes emerge from analysing the drivers of past progress that can highlight the path for an accelerated transition:The current energy transition trajectory puts equity under pressure.The global average ETI score has increased each cons

27、ecutive year over the last decade,but the growth has plateaued in the past three years,due to rising challenges to the equity and inclusiveness of the transition.Energy market volatilities resulting from macroeconomic and geopolitical developments over the past three years have led to extreme price

28、shocks,exacerbating energy poverty and stalling energy access.High fuel prices have affected the cost-competitiveness of energy intensive industries,and the rising subsidy burden poses a risk to economic growth.Low-income countries have been disproportionately affected,facing simultaneous challenges

29、 from fuel price inflation,food inflation and rising debt burden.While performance on environmental sustainability has grown the fastest and countries are prioritizing energy security after lessons from the energy crisis,inclusiveness and equity considerations need to be addressed for a robust and r

30、esilient transition.The centre of gravity for energy transition is shifting towards emerging and developing economies.With increasing populations and economic growth in developing countries,particularly China and India,the global demand for energy remains unfazed.Short-term effects from the energy c

31、risis notwithstanding,all emerging economies show consistent improvement on transition readiness,performing better than the global averages over a longer-term horizon.The improvements in the growth of clean jobs,infrastructure development(including the addition of renewables capacity)and political c

32、ommitments have been significant.Even as the global energy transition is plateauing due to equity challenges,major economies are showing significant progress.Fostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition4An opportunity also lies in the cost effectiveness of implementing clean solutions in emerg

33、ing economies,as the average cost of reducing emissions in these economies is estimated to be approximately half of that in advanced economies.All of this,however,must be accompanied by improving the energy intensity of the economy,while reducing the carbon intensity of the energy mix.Further,direct

34、ing investments towards developing economies can help them boost acceleration.No one-size-fits-all dimensions exist for all countries.The countries performing strongly on the equitable dimension have been able to manage affordability concerns due to less reliance on energy imports and cost reflectiv

35、e energy pricing.Oman,Canada,United States and Sweden are top scorers on this dimension.Chronic energy access challenges are reflected in the low scores of Democratic Republic of Congo,Zambia,Tanzania and Senegal on this dimension.The top scorers in the secure dimension are mainly advanced economies

36、,such as United States,Australia and Estonia,followed by Malaysia,a developing country.All these countries have a highly diversified energy mix,minimal dependence on fuel imports and minimal interruptions in energy supply.The countries scoring the lowest are Lebanon,Jamaica and Dominican Republic,ma

37、inly because of challenges on the diversity of the energy mix,the need for energy imports and electricity losses.Latin America leads the chart on the sustainable dimension with Costa Rica,Paraguay and Uruguay,on account of abundant hydroelectric potential.Fossil fuel exporting countries Bahrain,Kuwa

38、it,Oman and Qatar score the lowest on this dimension,attributed to high energy and carbon intensities and a very low share of clean energy in the mix.These results infer that,irrespective of economic development,countries can harness different available resources to successfully transition on variou

39、s aspects of the energy triangle.Renewable energy deployment has grown exponentially,though innovation in next-generation energy technologies is necessary.Despite the fastest growth among the three dimensions of the energy triangle,the global average score on the sustainable dimension lags the score

40、s of the equitable and secure dimensions on an absolute scale throughout the past decade.The silver lining,however,came in 2022 with investments in renewables reaching a record high of$1.3 trillion,a 19%increase from 2021 investment levels and a 70%increase from pre-pandemic levels in 2019.Around th

41、e globe,countries have added to their renewable capacities.One reason for this is the wide availability and maturity of renewable technologies.To increase the supply of clean energy and its associated technologies,the innovation landscape of clean energy solutions must be boosted,including alternati

42、ve fuels,hydrogen,and carbon capture and sequestration.Policies are paving the way for a progressive transition,and diligence with implementation would shape up the transition trajectory.With updated country commitments,global greenhouse gas emissions coverage increased from 69%to 77%.A combination

43、of recent policies,such as the US Inflation Reduction Act,Japans Green Transformation programme,the European Unions Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism,and evolving mandatory and voluntary carbon markets,are accelerating clean energy supply and technology scalability,and promoting demand efficiency w

44、hile allowing for transition-oriented economic growth.The transition trajectory hinges on the quality of implementing these policies to stimulate investments in enabling the transition infrastructure,while avoiding unintended consequences on energy equity and global trade.Increasing financing for a

45、low-carbon energy system requires concerted efforts from governments,emphasizing a strong policy and price to ensure green investments offer an attractive risk-adjusted return.Fostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition5Introduction1Recent crises have left countries continually struggling to

46、balance energy security,equity and sustainability.The energy transition is at a critical inflection point amid a series of shocks with compounding effects(Figure 1).Energy supplies and infrastructure have been heavily weaponized during the Russia-Ukraine war,exposing the vulnerabilities of the energ

47、y security architecture.Countries with otherwise mature energy infrastructure and sophisticated supply chains were forced to resort to emergency measures to ensure adequate energy supply.Following the disruption of pipeline gas supply from Russia,a combination of strong policy measures,alternative f

48、uel supply agreements,accelerated liquefied natural gas(LNG)infrastructure development,demand management and curtailment,regional collaboration on the use of storage reserves,and a milder than expected winter have helped Europe avoid energy shortages.Simultaneously,a concentrated fuel mix,reliance o

49、n few trade partners and underinvestment in energy systems emerged as important risk factors.As a result,oil and gas flows may have been permanently redirected,leading to the most significant rebalancing of the energy geopolitical landscape since the 1970s.Gas market volatilities spilled over to ele

50、ctricity markets,prompting considerations for electricity market reforms.Competition for scarce LNG cargoes globally led to some emerging economies being priced out,resulting in blackouts in Pakistan and Bangladesh.The recent energy crisis is the first with a global scope due to interconnected energ

51、y supply chains and calls for comprehensive rethinking of energy security strategy in the face of the emerging risks landscape.The crisis has also shown that,under pressure and led by strong policy measures,faster energy system changes are possible,as seen with Europes diminished dependence on Russi

52、an gas.The global energy crisis also highlighted multiple dimensions of the inclusiveness of the energy transition.The unprecedented surge in energy prices severely affected affordability,with poor households that spend a larger portion of their income on energy affected the most.High energy prices

53、sparked food inflation,leading to a cost-of-living crisis in many countries.Energy market volatilities also affected the competitiveness of energy-intensive industries in some regions.Increasingly,firms are seeking to shift operations to markets with cheaper and more reliable energy,raising concerns

54、 over employment in local communities.The fiscal response to mitigate the effects of the energy crisis on consumers and businesses imposed a heavy financial burden on governments,with estimates of fossil fuel subsidies in excess of$1 trillion in 2022.1 Emerging economies,already dealing with price s

55、hocks,are under an increasing debt burden due to monetary policy responses to control inflation.This exacerbates the challenge of attracting low-cost capital on a large scale to finance the energy transition in emerging economies.Just Energy Transition Partnerships(JETPs)have emerged as novel bilate

56、ral arrangements to support coal-dependent emerging economies in accelerating the phase-out of fossil fuels while addressing social impacts.The march of sustainable energy has kept pace through this period of extreme volatility.Last year,for the first time,investments in low-carbon energy technologi

57、es surpassed a record$1trillion.2 Bilateral finance flows and early-stage financing continued to grow,and global climate tech venture capital funding totalled$82 billion.3 In response to the energy crisis,landmark legislations were put forward,including the US Inflation Reduction Act,which was passe

58、d,and the proposed EU Net-Zero Industry Act to ramp up clean energy,drive innovation and set the scene for accelerated decarbonization.The electric vehicle market saw record growth as unit sales surpassed 10million in 2022 and 14%of new cars sold were electric.4 More companies are committing to net

59、zero.As of June 2022,702 of the worlds largest firms had set net-zero targets5 though credibility gaps remain,leading to increasing scrutiny on the validity of targets and accountability of implementation.Post-pandemic recovery of energy demand and the energy crisis may have led to a rebound in coal

60、,with the slowest rate of coal plant closures in eight years.6 The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report warns that emissions need to be cut by almost half by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5C.7In light of these developments,it is now more important than ever for countries to further a

61、ccelerate their energy transition in a way that balances and delivers on the need for an equitable,sustainable and secure energy system,ensuring that it is right for the present and future.Policies will be at the core of shaping a balanced energy transition by encouraging investments in clean energy

62、,promoting innovation,encouraging energy efficiency and ensuring that the transition benefits all segments of society.The crisis has also shown that,under pressure and led by strong policy measures,faster energy system changes are possible.Fostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition6Volatile

63、period in the energy transition,2020-2022FIGURE 1202220212020Key shocksEffectsMilestonesMissed opportunitiesEight countries reached net-zero emissions US Inflation Reduction Act EU Net-Zero Industry Act EU Fit for 55 package Japan Green Transformation programme First Movers CoalitionGlobal investmen

64、t in low-carbon energy technology surged to$1.1 trillion(biggest share towards renewables and electrified transport)Temporary behavioural changes instead of structural reforms to keep emissions low Drop in global energy-related CO2 emissions by 5.8%Rebound in global energy-related CO2 emissions by 6

65、%(36.3 billion tonnes)Fossil fuel subsidies at all-time high($1 trillion)Energy poverty and loss of industrial competitivenessSupply chain disruptions and supply shortagesEnergy security vulnerabilities and supply chain disruptionsGlobal energy investment plummeted by$400 billionGovernment support f

66、or fossil fuels in 51 countries doubled to$697 billionAverage global temperature 1.1 C above pre-industrial levelsPresentation of EU Climate Target PlanThe world committed a record$501.3 billion to decarbonizationSolar power became the cheapest source of electricity globally($0.048/kWh)Lack of incen

67、tives to the private sector to invest in clean electricityOnly 6%of the G20s recovery funding channelled towards clean energyExtreme weather eventsRussia-Ukraine warInflationLaunch of Just Energy Transition Partnerships(JETPs)and theFirst Movers CoalitionRecord 295GW of new renewable power capacity

68、addedAnnounced stimulusof$17.2trillionwill have anet negative environmental impact in 15of theG20 countriesOngoing subsidizing of coal,oil and natural gas and lack of structural reforms and bold actions to phase out fossil fuels in power generation and expand energy efficiency and renewable powerCOV

69、ID-19Structural changes to global crude oil markets and pricing systemDrop in energy demand by 4%worldwideDrop in energy commodity prices by 40%Global economy shrank by 5.2%Rebound in energy demand and consumption 5%worldwideTightening of energy markets pushed coal,oil and gas prices up(80%)Major ou

70、tages affecting 350 million people worldwideSurge in crude oil prices to$100/barrel in mid-2022 before falling backPrices for spot purchases of natural gas exceed equivalent of$250/barrel of oilIncrease in number of people without access to electricity(770 million)after years of decreaseElectricity

71、costs up by 30%Global energy crisisSource:World Economic ForumFostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition7Framework2The ETI 2023 features a revised framework for effective decision-making in the evolving global energy landscape.Fostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition8The ETI provid

72、es a data-driven framework to measure and understand the performance of energy systems and readiness for energy transition across countries focusing on the transition.Given the emerging landscape and its potential implications for energy transition decision-making,the ETI framework(Figure 2)has been

73、 updated to ensure relevance and usefulness for making decisions.While the energy triangle remains valid with a balanced approach towards the three priorities of equity,security and sustainability the updated ETI framework identifies specific components of these dimensions.The equitable dimension of

74、 the energy triangle is rooted in several aspects.It aims to ensure affordable access to modern and clean forms of energy for all.It focuses on providing continuity of economic activities through competitive energy prices.It also emphasizes maintaining cost-reflective energy pricing while implementi

75、ng mechanisms to protect vulnerable consumers and small businesses.In addition,it leverages the green growth momentum to create shared prosperity.Lessons from the recent energy crisis are reflected in the definition of the secure dimension.Supply security through diversification remains important ac

76、ross three levers of diversification in the energy mix,in their energy trade partners and in the sources of electricity generation.Resilience,both in gas supplies and the power system,is instrumental for energy security.In addition,as the number and range of power generation and management assets in

77、crease as a result of decentralization,reliability of grids becomes critical.Future iterations can include other sources of resilience,such as secure supply of critical minerals,different forms of energy storage,grid interconnections and demand response upon availability of robust,timely and consist

78、ent data.Demand-and supply-side metrics constitute the sustainable dimension.Supply-side sustainability requires the reduction of CO2 and methane intensity of energy supply.In addition to supply-side measures,efforts to reduce the energy intensity of the economy(the quantity of energy required per u

79、nit of output or product a basic measure of energy efficiency),to encourage responsible consumption through lower energy and emissions footprint per capita,and to increase the share of clean energy in final demand,are essential.The progress on energy transition is determined by the extent to which a

80、 robust enabling environment can be created.A robust regulatory framework and ability to attract and deploy capital on a large scale remain the core components of an enabling environment.In addition to a comprehensive policy framework for renewable energy,energy efficiency and energy access,regulato

81、ry frameworks need to be aligned with a robust,ambitious and credible roadmap to net zero,supported by efficient pricing of carbon.An investment climate characterized by low cost of capital,liquidity in domestic markets and attractiveness to foreign direct investment is a strong enabler for mobilizi

82、ng increasing levels of capital for the energy transition.Additionally,advanced economies need to meet the commitment of mobilizing$100 billion of climate finance annually to developing countries.Energy transition readiness is increasingly shaping countries competitiveness strategy,as they incubate

83、nascent industries to support future economic growth.Factors such as a skilled workforce,innovation,and physical and digital infrastructure are essential,which are explicitly acknowledged as part of the revised ETI framework.Momentum In addition to improving system performance through a balanced ene

84、rgy triangle and creating a robust enabling environment,consistent progress is essential for a timely and effective transition.This report proposes“momentum”as such a measure for energy transition to provide countries with an additional layer of benchmarking with peer economies.The ideation of momen

85、tum considers different starting points,country-specific circumstances and energy system structures,and focuses on the short-term historical growth rate of the equitable,secure and sustainable dimensions of the energy system.Energy transition readiness is increasingly shaping countries competitivene

86、ss strategy,as they incubate nascent industries to support future economic growth.9Fostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 EditionEnergy Transition Index update performance and readinessFIGURE 2System performanceTransition readinessEducation andhuman capitalFinance andinvestmentInfrastructureInno

87、vationSustainableEquitableSecureRegulations and political commitmentCore enablersSource:World Economic ForumTransition momentumFIGURE 3AdvancingBelow-median score,with a positive growth rateLeadingAbove-median score,with a positive growth rateAt riskBelow-median score,with a negative growth rateStab

88、ilizingAbove-median score,with a negative growth ratePositive growthrate(3-year)HighPerformanceLowPerformanceNegative growthrate(3-year)Momentum on the system performance dimensionSource:World Economic ForumFostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition10Overall results3A majority of countries s

89、how progress,with developing nations taking centre stage in a shifting global landscape.Key highlights14523Global average ETI scores increased by 10%since 2014,but showed only marginal growth in the past three years.The top 10 countries account for only 2%of global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion

90、 and 4%of total energy supply.Only 18%of countries in 2023 have balanced the imperatives of the energy triangle.*Only 41 countries have made steady progress in the past decade.Equity was compromised as the transition centred on secure and sustainable.*Balanced is defined as when the spread between t

91、he equitable,secure and sustainable scores is less than 8.5 points.Fostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition11Emerging and developing EuropeMiddle East,North Africa and PakistanSub-Saharan AfricaLatin America and the CaribbeanCommonwealth of Independent StatesAdvanced economiesEmerging and

92、developing AsiaETI Score201420232023 Global Average(56.3%)Rank CountryETI score (20142023)2023 ETI scoreSP1 (23)TR2(23)1Sweden78.581.074.82Denmark76.173.779.83Norway73.777.368.34Finland72.868.978.65Switzerland72.475.767.46Iceland70.673.965.67France70.673.366.58Austria69.369.269.59Netherlands68.865.7

93、73.510Estonia68.274.259.211Germany67.564.671.912United States66.368.463.213United Kingdom66.267.764.014Brazil65.968.961.315Portugal65.866.764.516Spain65.065.164.717China64.965.064.818Hungary64.368.857.519Canada64.266.760.320Luxembourg64.261.568.221Albania63.771.651.822New Zealand63.768.256.923Urugua

94、y63.671.551.824Australia63.663.164.325Costa Rica63.574.546.926Latvia63.469.055.127Japan63.363.762.928Israel62.767.355.729Slovenia62.668.054.430Chile62.563.461.331Korea,Rep.62.360.365.332Azerbaijan62.069.650.733Croatia62.067.054.434Paraguay61.972.945.335Malaysia61.770.049.336Lithuania61.262.060.137Gr

95、eece60.960.361.738Italy60.663.955.639Colombia60.565.653.040Poland59.763.054.741Ireland59.361.356.342Belgium59.259.658.543Viet Nam58.960.356.944Slovak Republic58.864.949.745Czech Republic58.666.247.246Kenya57.865.945.647El Salvador57.372.235.148Bulgaria57.262.848.949Romania56.865.843.350Bosnia and He

96、rzegovina56.760.351.451Panama56.466.241.752Cyprus56.461.748.453Peru56.470.734.954Thailand55.962.346.255Indonesia55.867.338.656Morocco55.660.748.157Saudi Arabia55.362.045.358Namibia55.163.342.759Qatar55.058.250.260Mauritius55.065.439.4Rank CountryETI score (20142023)2023 ETI scoreSP1 (23)TR2(23)61Mal

97、ta54.961.545.162Georgia54.864.041.063United Arab Emirates54.658.748.364Ukraine54.563.241.565Turkey54.358.947.466Sri Lanka54.363.540.667India54.361.443.668Mexico54.164.937.869Montenegro54.062.441.570Singapore53.751.257.671Jordan53.758.446.772Armenia53.660.044.173Tajikistan53.666.434.474Bolivia53.566.

98、034.775Cote dIvoire53.164.036.976Kazakhstan53.061.140.977Serbia52.961.140.578Ecuador52.867.830.279Egypt,Arab Rep.52.462.537.280Macedonia,FYR52.361.438.781Cameroon52.265.432.482South Africa52.256.645.583Lao PDR52.159.241.684Cambodia52.159.940.485Argentina52.063.135.586Algeria51.964.832.687Guatemala51

99、.965.232.088Ghana51.563.134.189Tunisia51.458.141.590Oman51.358.640.391Kyrgyz Republic50.661.734.192Iran,Islamic Rep.50.461.633.693Dominican Republic50.355.442.794Philippines50.261.533.295Ethiopia49.861.132.796Gabon49.564.726.897Nepal49.258.235.798Trinidad and Tobago48.356.835.799Angola48.164.024.410

100、0Honduras48.059.630.5101Republic of Moldova47.855.736.1102Kuwait47.851.342.5103Venezuela47.764.322.7104Senegal47.653.838.3105Brunei Darussalam47.355.035.7106Botswana46.954.934.9107Pakistan46.955.234.5108Nigeria46.058.427.5109Mozambique46.058.127.8110Bahrain45.752.036.3111Mongolia45.456.329.0112Leban

101、on45.250.137.9113Bangladesh45.056.827.3114Nicaragua44.957.126.6115Jamaica44.950.436.5116Zimbabwe44.750.735.7117Zambia44.356.725.8118Tanzania42.951.430.1119Congo,Dem.Rep.42.354.324.3120Yemen,Rep.40.056.315.5 ETI 2023 ranking tableTABLE 11 System performance 2023;2 Transition readiness 2023 Note:The a

102、verage score for 2023 is 56.3.Source:World Economic Forum40506070803040506070Fostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition12All countries ranked in the top 10 are from Western and Northern Europe,and account for 2%of energy-related CO2 emissions,4%of total energy supply and 2%of the global popu

103、lation.Sweden leads the global rankings,followed by Denmark and Norway.Among the worlds 10 largest economies,only France features in the top 10.The list of top performers in the ETI has remained broadly unchanged over the course of the past decade.Although each countrys energy transition pathway is

104、different,they all share common attributes,including:Reduced levels of energy subsidies Enhanced energy security from a diverse energy and electricity mix,as well as a mix of import partners Improved carbon intensity Increased share of clean energy in the fuel mix A carbon pricing scheme A strong an

105、d supportive regulatory environment to drive the energy transitionHigh-ranking countries also show high scores on transition readiness because of their strong institutional and regulatory frameworks,their ability to attract capital and investment on a large scale,their innovative business environmen

106、t and their high level of political commitment on energy transition.Both China and Brazil feature in the top 20,a result of their performance thus far and readiness to continue to transition.The global average scores for the ETI have increased successively each year from 2014 to 2023,the result of g

107、ains across both system performance and transition readiness(Figure 4).Global average Energy Transition Index and sub-index scores,2014-2023FIGURE 40102030405060702014201520162017201820192020202120222023ETI overallSystem performanceTransition readinessSource:World Economic ForumOf the 120 countries,

108、113 have made progress over the last decade but only 55 have improved their scores by more than 10 percentage points.Notably,large emerging centres of demand,such as China,India and Indonesia,have seen these improvements.Only 41 countries have made steady gains over the last decade(defined as consis

109、tently above-average performance improvements on the ETI).While this list includes many advanced economies,it also has 14 countries from developing and emerging Europe,developing and emerging Asia,and Latin America and the Caribbean.Qatar and Mexico narrowly miss falling into the category;they made

110、steady gains until 2023 when their progress fell below the average.These insights demonstrate the difficulty of maintaining progress and the energy transitions inherent complexity.The top improvers between 2022 and 2023 are Azerbaijan and Kenya.Kenya has typically progressed behind the global averag

111、e while Azerbaijan has been ahead of it.Both have shown large improvements across several transition readiness parameters,including financial investment,infrastructure and innovation.Joining them among the top improvers is Paraguay,which has made progress every year for a decade,and Zimbabwe,whose s

112、core grew by 9%but continues to lag the global average.Importantly,as countries advance,they should achieve a balanced energy system,but only 18%of them have achieved this balance,leaving those without it vulnerable to risks related to energy security,inequality and the consequences of climate chang

113、e.Certain large emerging centres of demand,such as China,India and Indonesia,have improved their scores by more than 10 percentage points.3.1 Transition scoresFostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition13Recent experiences underline how crucial a secure,affordable and sustainable energy syste

114、m is to economic growth,and an orderly and equitable transition.Look at the impact that rising energy prices have had on stoking inflation,which has hit low-income families and small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)the hardest.This underscores the need for the energy transition,which the World Eco

115、nomic Forum supports,to tackle the trilemma:how do we get energy that is low carbon,affordable and reliable,underpinning the growth needed to finance the transition.The Forums International Business Council(IBC)has launched a project that can harness its members combined economic impact 130 companie

116、s representing roughly 3%of global energy demand to accelerate the energy transition.This project is not only a challenge,requiring collaborative action across sectors,industries and borders,but also an opportunity to foster growth and influence the way our economies and societies can provide safer,

117、fairer and more sustainable outcomes.Much of the focus has,understandably,been on energy supply.However,according to the International Energy Agencys Net Zero by 2050 pathway,to meet the Paris Agreements emissions goals by 2050,the world will need to consume 8%less energy than it does today.At the s

118、ame time,the worlds economies will need to grow in a sustainable manner to provide for 2 billion more people.This means that energy consumption as a portion of economic output as well as the carbon intensity of the energy individuals consume will have to decline that is,people will have to be smarte

119、r and more efficient in their energy use.IBC members have decided to focus on the demand side of energy transition.Managing and reducing the energy intensity of demand is an area where our companies,as leaders in their sectors and as stakeholders in their home countries,can foster more efficient use

120、 of energy and promote policies and practices that can lead to success.The aim is to do this in a way that complements,rather than duplicates,other similar initiatives,within and outside the Forums ecosystem.First,supported by our knowledge partner PwC,the IBC will create a common vision for demand-

121、side energy transition,with an eye towards reducing energy consumption as a portion of GDP and carbon-intensity within that equation.A key part will be how we support emerging and developing countries to do this.We will survey IBC members to help identify best practices,priorities and existing plans

122、 and targets,as well as obstacles,which we will use as a baseline for action.Second,we will engage governments and multilaterals to advocate for the policies needed to remove obstacles and promote demand-side energy transition,while also exploring opportunities to contribute to sectoral transition f

123、rameworks.IBC members,who are global leaders in their respective industries and regions,are uniquely placed to help accelerate the energy transition by catalysing company,sector and country-level action.The community has an opportunity to leverage its collective influence and convening power to acce

124、lerate a low-carbon,secure and just transition of the global energy system by bringing together the private sector,governments and international organizations.We know the limits of a one-size-fits all approach but are also convinced we can share solutions and efficiencies that can be adapted to have

125、 impact.We will not forget the importance of SMEs and developing countries in this regard.We will not only seek ways to support and incentivize them,but also to unlock equity financing for the transition.All IBC members are affected by the energy transition,and are relevant in influencing it,both as

126、 energy consumers and producers.Banks,too,must play a role.Financing the energy transition is,and will continue to be,one of the major challenges,and opportunities,for financial institutions.This is especially true in Europe,where 70%of business finance comes from banks.The task is daunting,but the

127、goal is attainable if we work together.Through collaboration within the business community,the public and private sectors and relevant global bodies,we can build an energy system that is low carbon,affordable and reliable.GUEST PERSPECTIVEBusiness is backing the accelerated energy transition By Ana

128、Botn,Group Executive Chair,Banco Santander;Chair,World Economic Forum International Business CouncilFostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition14The ETI scores measure a countrys current energy system,but not how fast they are transitioning.Momentum shows who is transitioning the fastest and

129、which countries are at risk.No globally defined percentage exists that defines the progress ofthe energy transition.The transitions pace will depend on a variety of factors,including the specific context of each country or region,the availability of resources and technology,the level of political wi

130、ll and public support and the urgency of the climate crisis.What is known,however,is that the energy transition needs to accelerate to limit the effects of climate change.Figures 5A-C show the distribution of countries across four quadrants for each system performance dimension,depending on the curr

131、ent score and the three-year growth rate of the dimension score between 2020 and 2023.As a result,countries near-term focus areas are visible as positive contributions to momentum.The figures assign each country to one of four quadrants:Leading countries with above-median dimension scores and positi

132、ve growth rates Stabilizing countries with above-median dimension scores but negative growth rates Advancing countries with below-median dimension scores and positive growth rates At-risk countries with below-median dimension scores and negative growth ratesOnly 2 out of 120 countries India and Sing

133、apore are advancing across the equitable,secure and sustainable dimensions,each with its own unique transition journey.The limited number of countries managing simultaneous advance on all elements of the energy triangle highlights the challenges many countries face with balancing efforts and require

134、d,focused investments and policy changes.Momentum for the equitable and secure dimensions is more dispersed across the four quadrants due to the dimensions previously being near-term focus areas for many countries.The results show that 62%of the worlds population now reside in a country that is lead

135、ing or advancing on an equitable energy transition.These countries are promoting energy equity and addressing social inequality as well as addressing energy affordability.Kenya and Tunisia are demonstrating strong momentum in this dimension.On the other hand,nearly 20%of the worlds population lives

136、in countries at risk of not achieving an equitable energy transition.These countries need to quickly identify challenge areas and resolve them by implementing infrastructure upgrades,subsidies or supportive policies.Countries leading or advancing within the secure dimension have focused on ensuring

137、a diverse energy mix,increasing resilience to price volatilities and strengthening infrastructure,including improved grid stability and flexibility;Brunei Darussalam,Ghana and Albania all demonstrate strong momentum here.Each countrys progress towards a more diversified and secure energy system is a

138、t different stages,but they all have fossil fuels in common as their primary energy source.Brunei has focused on diversifying its energy sources,while Ghana and Albania have reduced imports and improved energy reliability.Although some countries have established secure energy systems,others are stab

139、ilizing in terms of momentum as they shift their focus to other areas.All countries must ensure that they shift to cleaner,local electricity generation and reduce reliance on fossilfuels(internal and imported).With 11 countries beingatrisk on both the equitable and secure dimensions,special attentio

140、n must be given to identify blockers,and other countries should provide technical and financial support to move these countries back on track.Many countries are prioritizing sustainability,focusing on policies and programmes that promote energy conservation,renewable technologies and innovation in e

141、nergy storage and grid modernization.Estonia and Luxembourg have both demonstrated strong momentum.Each has a different profile in terms of sustainability,but they are all signatories to the Paris Agreement.Estonia has prioritized investment in renewables,and Luxembourg in reducing greenhouse gas(GH

142、G)emissions.Saudi Arabia is also advancing within sustainability but,considering its starting position,it needs to rapidly step up the growth rate on sustainability.3.2 Transition momentum Momentum is not equal across dimensions and countries are prioritizing sustainability for balanced economic gro

143、wth,social well-being and natural resource preservation.Key highlightsOnly 2 out of 120 countries are accelerating across the equitable,secure and sustainable dimensions.20%of the world is manifesting slowing(retracting)progress on energy equity.Countries accounting for over 90%of the worlds emissio

144、ns are prioritizing sustainability.123Fostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition15The countries at risk within the sustainable dimension are major fuel exporting nations where transitioning to sustainable energy sources may require significant investment and infrastructure upgrades(which can

145、 be difficult to implement in resource-rich economies).The sustainability and security of the energy system are closely intertwined,as an unsustainable energy system can pose a long-term threat to energy security.By prioritizing sustainability,countries are working towards achieving a balance betwee

146、n economic growth,social well-being and the preservation of natural resources.Momentum across the equitable dimensionMomentum across the secure dimensionFIGURE 5AFIGURE 5BThree-year compound annual growth rate(%)1015202530354045505560657075809085Emerging and developing EuropeMiddle East,North Africa

147、 and PakistanSub-Saharan AfricaLatin America and the CaribbeanCommonwealth of Independent StatesAdvanced economiesEmerging and developing Asia10%of energy supplyAt riskAdvancing14%of energy supply14%energy supplyStabilizingLeading51%energy supply-6-5-4-3-2-101234562023 secure dimension scoreThree-ye

148、ar compound annual growth rate(%)1015202530354045505560657075809085Emerging and developing EuropeMiddle East,North Africa and PakistanSub-Saharan AfricaLatin America and the CaribbeanCommonwealth of Independent StatesAdvanced economiesEmerging and developing Asia17%of populationAt riskAdvancing36%of

149、 population11%of populationStabilizingLeading26%of population-6-5-4-3-2-101234562023 equitable dimension scoreSource:World Economic ForumSource:World Economic ForumFostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition16Momentum across the sustainable dimensionFIGURE 5CThree-year compound annual growth

150、rate(%)-6-5-4-3-2-101234561015202530354045505560657075809085Emerging and developing EuropeMiddle East,North Africa and PakistanSub-Saharan AfricaLatin America and the CaribbeanCommonwealth of Independent StatesAdvanced economiesEmerging and developing Asia4%of emissionsAt riskAdvancing77%of emission

151、s1%of emissionsStabilizingLeading11%of emissions2023 sustainable dimension scoreSource:World Economic ForumFostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition17Regional scores and key insights:Average scores by peer group ETI 2023FIGURE 6Advanced economiesOver the past decade,the ETI scores of advanc

152、ed economies improved steadily by 11%,led by the Nordic region.All advanced economies have been able to achieve 100%access to electricity and develop reliable energy systems,but suffered greatly on affordability because of high energy prices in the past three years.The group made tremendous advances

153、 on regulatory policies,infrastructure,human capital and financial investment,but lags on innovation where it could make pioneering developments.Sub-Saharan AfricaSub-Saharan Africas energy transition growth of 11%has been one of the most promising in the last decade,and it is the strongest performe

154、r of all groups on the sustainable dimension.On certain parameters,such as scores for regulatory indicators for sustainable energy(RISE),creation of green jobs,and regulation and political commitment,it was also the best performer.Sub-Saharan Africa showed the maximum gain of 18%on scores on the equ

155、itable dimension in the past decade,but recent trends show a slowdown,about which the region should be cautious.It needs to focus on improving its energy mix and harnessing its abundance of natural resources to transition faster to a low-carbon economy.The group can do so by attracting global invest

156、ments,leveraging public-private partnerships and strengthening its infrastructure.Middle East,North Africa and PakistanThe scores for the Middle East and North Africa and Pakistan grew by 8%in the last decade and have been flat for the past three years,where the heavy reliance on oil revenues contin

157、ues to pose challenges on the path to a sustainable energy transition.Even though subsidy scores improved by 200%the maximum for any group they plunged 33%in the last year alone.This group needs to catch up on sustainable scores by reducing energy intensity and share of GHG emissions.On transition r

158、eadiness,it was at par with other groups with a 20%gain over the last 10 years but showed the maximum decline on innovation.Directing its investments towards development of environmental technologies can help on this front.Latin America and the CaribbeanThis group showed the slowest gain,with ETI sc

159、ores increasing 5%over the last decade.The group leads on the sustainable dimension due to heavy use of hydroelectric power.But surprisingly,its investment in renewables scores declined by 65%over 10 years.The Renewables in Latin America and the Caribbean initiative,created at the end of 2019,aims t

160、o fulfil 70%of the groups electric energy consumption with renewables by 2030.Latin America produces several minerals necessary for clean energy technologies and could develop its firmly set mining sector to diversify into new minerals.To unlock further improvements,the group can strengthen its enab

161、ling environment,where again it showed a modest growth of just 8%in 10 years.It should focus on leveraging its advantage in natural resources to boost innovation,promoting public-private partnerships for better credit access,and introducing environmental tax reforms for long-term benefits.Emerging a

162、nd developing EuropeThis group showed the most promising growth,increasing ETI scores by 13%over the past decade.But problems mounted last year as the energy crisis hit the group the hardest,leading to a decline in scores.The wholesale prices of electricity and gas have surged 15-fold since the begi

163、nning of 2021,severely affecting households and businesses.The group performed well on transition readiness,with a gain of 22%in its scores.In the past three years,the group significantly improved on adding clean energy jobs and on investments in renewables,which was reflected in its renewable capac

164、ity addition scores.In the short term,these countries need to focus on reducing energy demand and increasing affordability for their consumers,while continuing to strengthen their readiness for the future.Commonwealth of Independent StatesThe Commonwealth of Independent States witnessed an improveme

165、nt in aggregate ETI scores by 11%over the past decade.But its system performance scores declined last year with an increase in subsidies and high gas prices.In the last 10 years,the group witnessed a jump of 22%in transition readiness scores,but that was limited to only 1.5%in the last year.The cont

166、ribution to the large increase comes from significant improvement within clean energy jobs over the decade,providing hope and employment for a prepared green workforce.In the future,the group should focus on improving energy affordability for its consumers and reducing fuel subsidies,which grew by a

167、 huge 17%in the last year.Emerging and developing AsiaEmerging and developing Asia,home to the populous countries of India and China,improved its ETI scores by 12%in the last decade.While this is one of two groups that have made greater than 10%improvement on the equitable dimension in the past deca

168、de,it increased fuel subsidies dramatically in the last year.Performance on the sustainable dimension remains flat with worsening carbon intensity.The group should focus on improving both security and sustainability given the energy demand per capita is projected to double by 2050.With a 28%increase

169、 in enabling environment scores,the region has strengthened its policy framework and financing environment.Focusing on innovation,adding more renewable capacity and diversifying the energy mix by moving away from fossil fuels can accelerate the transition for this group.Source:World Economic Forum14

170、%34%65.2Average score31%11%4%49.2Average score2%9%8%50.5Average score7%9%6%54.8Average score4%3%3%57.7Average score3%3%7%54.6Average score7%51%39%53.4Average score46%of global population%of global total enegy supply%of global CO2 emissions18Fostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 EditionSub-index

171、 and dimension trends4The current energy transition trajectory is masking a decline in equity and inclusiveness.Fostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition19System performance dimension scores,2014 and 2023FIGURE 7To achieve an effective energy transition,countries must balance their energy s

172、ystem across the equitable,secure and sustainable dimensions,and make progress on all(Figure 7).In the last decade,83%of the countries tracked by the ETI have improved their energy system performance,an indication of their strong energy system growth.Global average system performance scores have ste

173、adily increased from 59.5 to 63.0.Improvement patterns differ across dimensions however,as countries face competing priorities,economic uncertainties and geopolitical challenges.The global average score for sustainable in 2023 remains the lowest among the three dimensions.Secure has progressed the m

174、ost,narrowly outperforming sustainable,and to the detriment of the equitable dimension,which has slowed overall.Urgent and accelerated measures are needed to continue the noticeable effect on the sustainable dimension to ensure a balanced energy system.Progress within sustainable is noticeably lacki

175、ng within the fossil fuel-exporting nations.Countries evolution on these dimensions over the past decade is further explored below.Percentage of countries0%100%50%Dimension score(out of 100)EquitableSecureSustainable10020304050607080901000%100%50%0%100%50%2023 scores2014 scores2023 average4.1 System

176、 performanceSource:World Economic ForumFostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition20EquitableThe imperative of the equitable energy transition stems from the critical role played by the energy sector in driving socio-economic growth.While the energy transition has the potential to create econ

177、omic opportunities,it could bring high costs and inequalities if not managed properly,particularly for the worlds most vulnerable populations.This requires leaders to make difficult choices,particularly in emerging and developing economies,to support economic growth that maximizes social welfare whi

178、le ensuring access to abundant and diverse forms of energy at affordable prices.The ETIs equitable dimension tracks the access,affordability and economic development of the energy sector.Globally since 2014,the score for the equitable dimension has seen a 4%increase,with a recent 3%increase from 202

179、1 to 2022 and a 4%decline from 2022-2023 following market signals,as shown in Figure 8.Oman,Canada,the United States and Sweden are leading in 2023,while countries in Sub-Saharan Africa,including the Democratic Republic of Congo,Zambia,Tanzania and Senegal,rank in the lowest quartile.While global av

180、erage scores on energy access and economic development have seen gains since 2014,those for energy affordability have substantially declined(5%),owing to the ongoing energy crisis and unprecedented shock to energy prices and household expenditures.These trends,however,vary by country depending on th

181、e stage of economic development.Global demand and prices for electricity and oil surpassed pre-pandemic levels in 2021 because of the strong correlation between economic growth and energy consumption.Natural gas prices also climbed to their highest in a decade in Europe,the United States and major A

182、sian markets,owing to a combination of demand-and supply-side factors.These imbalances carried over to 2022 with energy prices sustaining record-high levels due to the Russia-Ukraine war.As the global energy crisis persists,the surge in energy prices continues to fuel inflationary pressures that det

183、er investments in countries already dealing with high interest rates and greater volatility.As a result,energy access investments dwindle while affordability of energy services also becomes severely constrained,adding to concerns of the equity and justice of the energy transition.Estimates suggest t

184、hat around 75 million people who gained access to electricity recently will likely lose the ability to pay for it,and 100 million people may go back to using traditional biomass for cooking.8 ETI trends show that while the rate of access to electricity in rural areas as well as access to clean cooki

185、ng fuels has slowed in the past three years,electricity prices remain high across several regions,including advanced economies,emerging and developing Europe,and the Middle East,North Africa and Pakistan.This implies a different set of affordability challenges,however,than those in Sub-Saharan Afric

186、a.To alleviate the effects of high electricity prices,many countries introduced legislation and measures such as the regulation of wholesale and retail prices;revenue caps on renewables,nuclear and coal plants;reductions in ETI equitable dimension trend,2014-2023FIGURE 85456586062646668Index score60

187、.961.361.763.064.263.963.363.965.863.52014201520162017201820192020202120222023Source:World Economic ForumFostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition21energy taxes;and energy subsidies.While these market interventions can help mitigate the effects of the energy crisis,minimizing uncertainty in

188、 the investment landscape is required to ensure that these measures do not deter much-needed investment.ETI trends further show that following an initial decline in the last few years,energy subsidies have been reintroduced rapidly and at much higher levels.Fossil fuel consumption subsidies worldwid

189、e soared in 2022;oil subsidies increased by approximately 85%,and natural gas and electricity consumption subsidies more than doubled.9 Even though these subsidies are meant to protect consumers from volatile energy prices,they create an additional burden on governments amid tightening fiscal space

190、and spending pressures on other priorities and reduce incentives for consumers to adapt energy consumption to price levels.In the face of persisting price pressures and crisis conditions,these measures require significant cumulative resources,which poses serious risks for the energy sector particula

191、rly in emerging and developing economies.The risk now is a harmful subsidy race where advanced economies with greater fiscal power might emerge as winners,and emerging and developing economies with scarcer fiscal resources would find it difficult to compete with them for investments.This could also

192、hinder the transfer of technology to these nations,ultimately raising the cost of the energy transition.10 For countries that are unable to make those commitments,this raises the question of how to make the energy transition inclusive.If the goal is to protect consumers from price shock and to corre

193、ct market failures,a coordinated approach is required,allowing subsidies to be targeted to meet the needs of the poorest and most vulnerable nations and households,and to ensure a level playing field.SecureEnergy security is“a primary concern for governments and economic players across the globe,and

194、 a dimension whose impacts multiply across supply chains,countries and international systems.People,companies and nations depend on secure and uninterrupted access to energy at affordable prices”.11 The ETIs secure dimension tracks energy supply,reliability and resilience.On a global scale,the secur

195、e dimension scores have shown the most progress over the past decade,although they still lag the equitable and sustainable dimensions.Figure 9 shows the dimension score over time.Advanced economies,such as United States,Australia and Estonia,score highly due to mature energy infrastructure,and many

196、are able to withstand potential disruptions to gas supply chains.Malaysia scores highly due to supply diversity and reliability.Major fuel exporters,such as Saudi Arabia,UAE and Azerbaijan,also score highly due to their gas reserves.ETI secure dimension trend,2014-2023FIGURE 95456586062646668Index s

197、core201420152016201720182019202020212022202362.162.064.765.265.365.665.766.166.266.6 There is risk of a harmful subsidy race where advanced economies with greater fiscal power might emerge as winners,and emerging and developing economies with scarcer fiscal resources would find it difficult to compe

198、te.Source:World Economic ForumFostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition22Diversification is critical for a secure and economic energy system as it reduces dependency,enhances resilience,manages economic risks,fosters innovation and competitiveness,and supports sustainability goals.Countries

199、 with energy security challenges have typically failed to diversify either their domestic energy mix or their energy import partners,or both;some of the results have been seen in recent months in Europe.The ETI shows that out of 29 advanced economies,eight have fuel import dependency on just three t

200、rade partners for over 70%of their net energy imports.Seven of these eight countries are in Europe.Three levels are needed for impactful diversification:in the energy mix,electricity supply and consumption.Their importance is recognized by several of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals

201、directly or indirectly relating to electricity and energy diversification and consumption.Trends from the ETI show that energy diversification is more advanced than electricity diversification,with progress being uneven;while the electricity mix is progressing,the energy mix remains stable.Some coun

202、tries that have successfully diversified their energy and electricity mixes may now focus on improving quality and reliability and reducing energy costs.Many countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East,North Africa and Pakistan regions,however,may need to first address energy access chal

203、lenges before tackling grid infrastructure improvements and subsequent diversification efforts.Policies also have an important role in driving innovation and expansion and in shaping energy systems to accommodate new technologies.The 2022 energy crisis incentivized renewable energy over gas in the m

204、edium term.More incentives may be needed to shift energy demand permanently towards clean energy and to accelerate electrification.Energy systems need to“withstand operational disturbances,such as grid outages,planned maintenance,extreme weather events or financial shocks(e.g.price volatility).Stabi

205、lity enhancements which strengthen the reliability and resilience of the system have never been more important or more challenging”.12 Force majeure events,including cold snaps in New York,13 heatwaves in Japan,14 and earthquakes in Turkey15 and Syria,have shown countries that grid operations need t

206、o be able to recover quickly in the event of tail-risk scenarios.As energy systems become more interconnected and reliant on advanced technologies,such as smart grids,supervisory control and data acquisition systems,and other digital infrastructure,they can become vulnerable to cyberthreats.Thus,cyb

207、ersecurity measures and robust defences need to be prioritized to mitigate these risks as grids advance.The growing share of electricity in final demand due to electrification,coupled with the rising unpredictability and frequency of extreme weather events,compounds the risks and vulnerabilities of

208、energy grids in the ongoing energy transition.Maintaining global trust will be important in the future for ensuring stable energy supply and demand at national and international levels.Countries must have confidence in each others ability to honour their energy commitments,as any disruption in the g

209、lobal market could have severe consequences for economic and social stability.Interconnectors,both within countries and across international borders,play a vital role in facilitating this trust by enabling the efficient transmission and sharing of electricity,diversifying energy sources and promotin

210、g cooperation in the face of geopolitical risks.The increasing activism of geopolitics,including the complex relationships between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries,China,the United States and Europe,further emphasizes the importance of interconnectors and ongoing cooperation in

211、ensuring a sustainable energy future.Electrifications rise in final demand and extreme weather events increase risks for energy grids in the ongoing energy transition.Fostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition23After decades of small steps,the EU and other parts of the world most notably the

212、 US now seem to be serious about transforming energy systems.This is especially clear in the case of wind energy,where over the past year policy-makers introduced several new ambitious targets.Recently,the EU proposed the Net-Zero Industry Act,which includes increasing wind-turbine manufacturing cap

213、acity to 36 GW annually by 2030.To put that into perspective:In 2022,Europe installed wind turbines totalling 16 GW.Thats half of what we need a huge gap to fill within a short period.The onshore market in Germany,for example,shrank significantly in 201816 and the number of offshore wind projects ba

214、rely increased.This has forced suppliers to close businesses,thousands of people to lose their jobs,and many skilled professionals to move into different sectors,making it even more challenging to achieve the EUs ambition of reaching 440 GW of wind energy capacity by 2030.We need massive investments

215、 and better access to funding.Wind turbine manufacturers are able and ready to contribute to the ambitious installation targets in Europe and around the world.However,appropriate policy frameworks are necessary.Massive investments need to be mobilized in key infrastructure such as roads,ports and gr

216、ids to meet the growing demand for renewable energy and to expand production capacities.Given the slow expansion in recent years,the major challenge especially for offshore wind will be to sustainably increase manufacturing capacities.Existing policy frameworks have hindered wind turbine manufacture

217、rs in establishing a sustainable business model.Future frameworks need to facilitate the expansion of production capacities and the EU,and its member states,must put more substantial and flexible public funding mechanisms in place if we want to achieve government expansion targets.This summer,the EU

218、 is expected to propose a Sovereignty Fund.It remains to be seen whether it will provide an approach as pragmatic and clear as that of the US Inflation Reduction Act,which mobilizes investment with a preference for domestic green technologies.The EU Innovation Fund,however,which is limited to the fu

219、nding of technological breakthroughs and will be in place until the Sovereignty Fund is established,is not suitable in its current form to support accelerated investment in manufacturing capacity.We need to cut through the red tape.Slow permitting processes have been a thorn in the European wind ind

220、ustrys side.In Europe,an overall capacity of 80 GW is currently trapped in various stages of permitting.This is a big number given todays overall capacity of a little over 204 GW.Had those 80 GW been installed by 2022,they could have eased the energy crisis in Europe.To speed up the process,it is cr

221、ucial that every permitting authority act quickly and unbureaucratically.Further needs are to diversify the supply chain,ensure inflation compensation and reassess auction design.Wind turbine manufacturers have not been spared from the significant disruptions in global supply chains.While the Europe

222、an wind industry needs to do its part by implementing diversification strategies,the EU must do its part as well.The energy transition will need a secure,abundant and affordable supply of critical minerals.While the recently passed Critical Raw Materials Act,which aims to secure and diversify a dome

223、stic supply chain of raw materials,is a step in the right direction,we are still waiting on details regarding implementation.Raw materials must be available for wind turbine manufacturers at fair prices.Otherwise,there is no level playing field.Furthermore,given the critical role played by the priva

224、te sector in the EUs energy transition,building sustainable business models is key.Cost escalations between auctions and project construction expose developers and manufacturers to rising costs that can dramatically exceed projected revenues and reduce margins.This is due in part to broader macroeco

225、nomic and geopolitical factors.Mechanisms to compensate for inflation-induced cost escalations are crucial to create a risk profile conducive to long-term investments at scale.Finally,policy-makers need to introduce and emphasize qualitative auction criteria,such as sustainability,cybersecurity and“

226、made in Europe”elements.As it stands,the predominant weighting of the price criterion also increases electricity prices for end consumers,which contradicts the goal of affordable energy.The goal is clear,and so is the path now we have to show we really want it.If we really want energy independence i

227、n Europe,we need to make sure we have a healthy and resilient wind industry.There is no question that the wind industry is of enormous strategic importance.But we need to act fast.We need more wind now.GUEST PERSPECTIVEEurope needs more wind now.And we need it fast.By Jochen Eickholt,Chief Executive

228、 Officer,Siemens Gamesa Renewable EnergyFostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition24SustainableThe ETI bases the sustainable dimension on a combination of energy efficiency,decarbonization and progress towards clean energy systems.In the past decade,this dimension has seen a 7%growth(Figure

229、10)in the global scores,with Costa Rica,Paraguay and Albania leading the charts for 2023.Paraguays use of hydropower in its energy mix has enabled it to maintain low-carbon intensity in its economy and effectively manage air pollution,providing it with one of the cleanest energy mixes in South Ameri

230、ca.The countries from the Middle East,North Africa and Pakistan region rank in the lowest quartiles on the sustainable dimension,despite their above-average performances on the equitable and secure dimensions.They can embrace sustainability by switching to low-carbon sources of energy,eliminating wa

231、ter scarcity and improving household waste management.This can happen with the public and private sectors collaborating to make the switch to a more sustainable way of life.The global sustainable scores,however,need to improve further to accelerate the transition,since improvement on this dimension

232、has a direct effect on net-zero goals.Transitioning towards sustainable energy systems is a complex process requiring careful policy planning and implementation.A central theme is that no one-size-fits-all policy package exists for sustainable energy transitions,as each countrys objectives and const

233、raints will shape its policy approach.Yet around the world,many countries are undergoing or planning transitions towards sustainable energy systems through a combination of policy measures,technological advances and changes in consumer behaviour.A few examples:Energy efficiency:According to the Inte

234、rnational Energy Agency(IEA),“Since 2020,governments worldwide have helped mobilise around USD 1trillion for energy efficiency-related actions such as building retrofits,public transport and infrastructure projects,and electric vehicle support.This amounts to approximately USD 250billion a year bein

235、g deployed from 2020 to 2023,equivalent to two-thirds of total clean energy recovery spending.”17 For example,also according to the IEA,“under its recovery and resilience plan,Spain intends to invest EUR 3.4 billion in half a million energy renovation actions through tax incentives and the creation

236、of one-stop renovation offices”.18 Technological advances:Achieving net-zero emissions requires the immediate and widespread deployment of clean and efficient energy technologies.Major economies are integrating their climate,energy security and industrial policies into broader strategies.Examples in

237、clude the US Inflation Reduction Act,the Fit for 55 package and REPowerEU plan in the EU,Japans Green Transformation programme,Indias Production Linked Incentive schemes and Chinas latest Five-Year Plan.ETI sustainable dimension trend,2014-2023FIGURE 105456586062646668Index score55.555.956.156.656.8

238、56.957.157.458.259.1542014201520162017201820192020202120222023Source:World Economic ForumFostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition25 Behavioural changes:Such changes,or the daily alterations that diminish wasteful or excessive energy consumption,are important to reach net-zero emissions by

239、2050.At the 26th Conference of the Parties(COP26),Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi unveiled Mission LiFE(Lifestyle for Environment),a programme that aims to prioritize individual behaviour in the global climate action discourse by shifting away from the current“use-and-dispose”economic model towa

240、rds a circular economy characterized by conscious and deliberate utilization.19 This move should be welcome for a highly populous country such as India,where behavioural changes can have a substantial effect.Despite some of the progressive initiatives,the sustainable energy system remains vulnerable

241、 at large.In 2022,the Russia-Ukraine war led to a global energy crisis with skyrocketing prices and supply disruptions.As a result,countries resorted to coal to fulfil energy demands.The worlds coal consumption reached a new high,surpassing 8 billion tonnes in a single year for the first time and ec

242、lipsed the previous record set in 2013.The bright side is that governments,banks,investors and mining firms continue to show a reluctance to invest in coal,particularly thermal coal.No clear indications exist of a reversal in investment trends outside of China and India,where domestic production has

243、 been raised to decrease external dependence.20 In addition,the policy responses overall in many regions to the global energy crisis,such as those taken in major economies(e.g.EU,United States and Japan),are likely to accelerate clean energy developments further.While global commitments and actions

244、to advance the sustainable energy transition have increased recently,they still fail to attain the required level to limit the rise in global temperatures to 1.5C and avoid the more severe consequences of climate change.Several sustainable indicators have been analysed to evaluate how far countries

245、are from the ideal targets(Figure 11).Country density based on the 2030 targets derived from the IEA Net Zero by 2050 scenariosFIGURE 11Energy intensity of GDP,MJ/2017$32 countries hitting target,11%of TES86 countries behind target,89%of TES2 countries n/a,1%of TESDerived 2030 Target:302468101214161

246、820Energy consumption per capita,GJ/capita59 countries hitting target,22%of TES61 countries behind target,78%of TESDerived 2030 target:65.930100200300400500600700800Carbon emissions per capita,CO2e/capita50 countries hitting target,19%of TES70 countries behind target,81%of TESDerived 2030 target:2.4

247、205101520253035Carbon intensity of energy mix,kgCO2/GJ30 countries hitting target,9%of TES89 countries behind target,91%of TES1 country n/a,1%of TESDerived 2030 target:36.71 0102030405060708090COAL(in electricity mix),%79 countries hitting target,33%of TES38 countries behind target,67%of TES3 countr

248、y n/a,67th percentileProgress 67th-33rd percentileProgress 33rd-0 percentileNegative progressData not availableCountryEnergy intensityCO intensityCO per capitaShare of electricityRenewable capacitySwedenDenmarkNorwayFinlandSwitzerlandIcelandFranceAustriaNetherlandsEstoniaGermanyUnited StatesUnited K

249、ingdomBrazilPortugalSpainChinaHungaryCanadaLuxembourgAlbaniaNew ZealandUruguayAustraliaCosta RicaLatviaJapanIsraelSloveniaChileKorea,Rep.AzerbaijanCroatiaParaguayMalaysiaLithuaniaGreeceItalyColombiaPolandIrelandBelgiumViet NamSlovak RepublicCzech RepublicKenyaEl SalvadorBulgariaRomaniaBosnia and Her

250、zegovinaPanamaCyprusPeruThailandIndonesiaMoroccoSaudi ArabiaNamibiaQatarMauritiusCountryEnergy intensityCO intensityCO per capitaShare of electricityRenewable capacityMaltaGeorgiaUnited Arab EmiratesUkraineTurkeySri LankaIndiaMexicoMontenegroSingaporeJordanArmeniaTajikistanBoliviaCote dIvoireKazakhs

251、tanSerbiaEcuadorEgypt,Arab Rep.Macedonia,FYRCameroonSouth AfricaLao PDRCambodiaArgentinaAlgeriaGuatemalaGhanaTunisiaOmanKyrgyz RepublicIran,Islamic Rep.Dominican RepublicPhilippinesEthiopiaGabonNepalTrinidad and TobagoAngolaHondurasRepublic of MoldovaKuwaitVenezuelaSenegalBrunei DarussalamBotswanaPa

252、kistanNigeriaMozambiqueBahrainMongoliaLebanonBangladeshNicaraguaJamaicaZimbabweZambiaTanzaniaCongo,Dem.Rep.Yemen,Rep.Source:World Economic ForumFostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition28A nation loses critical energy supplies and looks for alternatives,balancing its near-term needs against

253、 longer-term sustainability goals.While most think this refers to a European country following the Russia-Ukraine war of 2022,it also describes the Kingdom of Morocco,which managed to meet its development needs without derailing the sustainability agenda,while increasing energy security.2022 will be

254、 remembered as the year when consumers and policy-makers favoured short-term security over sustainability.However,security concerns are neither temporary nor superfluous.Energy transition takes time and could require investments of$250 trillion over 30 years.In Africa alone,nearly 600 million people

255、 remain without access to modern forms of energy.After lockdowns,wars and market dislocations,2022 offered us a clear conviction:this is the wrong time to lose credibility and trust after years of advocacy on climate,nature and biodiversity protection.In 2021,a10 billion cubic metre natural gas pipe

256、line between Africa and Europe shut down,cutting Morocco off.The country could have gone down an irreversible path of retooling the energy system with fossil fuels.Instead,it joined the world at COP26 in resolutions to move beyond coal.Though Morocco was still recovering from the economic shockwaves

257、 of COVID-19,it turned this challenge into an opportunity by putting in place a roadmap for energy security,including fast-tracking sustainable access to the international LNG market to“power past coal,”decarbonizing industries and addressing the intermittency of renewables.The integration with inte

258、rnational LNG markets by reversing the flow of a transcontinental pipeline was a critical move to restore the trust of people,investors and allies,with a just and informed energy,economic and social transition.Against a backdrop of uncertainty,Morocco decoupled supply from infrastructure and increas

259、ed the systems security,sustainability and flexibility by enabling more renewables,pushing for more efficiency and increasing integration with global markets three pillars of its energy strategy.In Europe,commodity and utility bills soared to record levels.Countries scrambled to acquire supplies or

260、curtail consumption.For some,2022 resembled the 1970s oil price shocks.This time,countries have barely emerged from a global pandemic,with soaring inflation and tightening monetary policies.Energy poverty,supply insecurity and environmental degradation have become the norm in many countries,alongsid

261、e food and water crises.A difficult global environment makes informed sustainable economics and renewed multilateralism even more critical.This is key to tackle the triple crisis of this century:climate change,pollution and biodiversity loss.Three telling examples:Carbon prices reached 100 per ton t

262、he first time in February 2023 in the EU emissions trading system,pushing the value of traded global markets for CO2 close to 1 trillion a clear signal of informed economics.As we consider the theme of the sixth session of the United Nations Environment Assembly,to end plastic pollution and promote

263、nature-based solutions for supporting sustainable development,the call to reinvigorate multilateralism to overcome the multiple crises that put the viability of life on earth at risk is pressing and needs to be supported with informed decisions.The July 2022 Inflation Reduction Acts Hydrogen Shot in

264、centives target$1 per kg by 2031,which is a positive economic signal.However,while some are lifting fracking bans,re-firing coal,and arbitrarily pricing in and out externalities,policy-makers must ensure that taxpayers money is not used to incentivize new bubbles that generate negative returns to so

265、ciety,stranded assets or bankruptcies.If financial institutions and the private sector say that,with the right economies of scale and incentives,properly structured investments,and the right balance between adaptation and mitigation,we can move together towards a just,informed,affordable and bankabl

266、e transition,why not do just that?To restore and nurture trust.GUEST PERSPECTIVEHow Morocco stays the course on a just transition towards sustainable developmentBy Leila Benali,Minister of Energy Transition and Sustainable Development of Morocco;President,United Nations Environment AssemblyFostering

267、 Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition29ETI transition readiness trend,2014-2023FIGURE 12As mentioned in Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2020 Edition,“the energy systems ability to deliver on the imperatives depends on the presence of an enabling environment for the energy transition,measur

268、ed in the ETI framework by the transition readiness sub-index.Energy transition readiness is captured by the stability of the policy environment and the level of political commitment,the investment climate and access to capital,the level of consumer engagement,the development and adoption of new tec

269、hnologies,etc.Some of these factors are beyond the scope of the energy system”,such as skills or quality of transport infrastructure,“but nevertheless determine the effectiveness and future trajectory of energy transition in a country.”21Similar to the progress achieved on global system performance

270、imperatives,transition readiness enablers sustained a growing global average performance over the past 10 years(Figure 12).The direct enablers have been fuelling countries transition readiness and showcase the effect of recent global focus on the policy and investment transition choke points.On the

271、other hand,human capital and innovation transition enablers did not make substantial progress over the same period,underscoring the importance of paying more attention to these blind spots to unlock further transition momentum.In addition to a set of leading advanced European economies,South Korea,C

272、hina and Japan are among the leading 20 countries regarding the enabling transition environment in 2023.Financial investment in clean energy continues to be a key enabler for transitioning economies.It nurtures other enablers of transition,such as technology development and deployment,while actively

273、 facilitating the scale-up of renewables capacity and associated infrastructure.Despite the progress achieved,investments in clean energy supply remain a challenge.Only six countries managed to direct more than 1%of their GDP in 2022 towards investments in renewables.China had the largest share of G

274、DP investments,investing more than 1.5%of GDP in renewables,followed by Viet Nam,Azerbaijan,and Bosnia and Herzegovina.Country commitments to their transition targets that were set as part of the Paris Agreement have been translating into transition strategies.The level of granularity and maturity o

275、f these strategies varies significantly.As of 2023,only 17 out of 120 countries have managed to reflect their net-zero targets into their respective laws,in a manner that targets all GHG emissions and delivers in 2050 or earlier.An effective country policy for energy transition provides the necessar

276、y framework to accelerate the transition to a cleaner energy system and address the associated challenges of equity and security.While most countries have a strong enabling policy environment regarding energy access,that environment is not as strong for policies that enable scaling of renewable capa

277、city or inducing energy efficiency.Aside from a set of leading advanced European economies,South Korea,India,Mexico and Hungary have recently exhibited a strong enabling regulatory environment to accelerate a balanced transition.Regulations and political commitmentEducation and human capitalInnovati

278、onInfrastructureFinance and investment30354045505560652014201520162017201820192020202120222023Score(0100)4.2 Transition readiness Only six countries managed to direct more than 1%of their GDP in 2022 towards investments in renewables.Source:World Economic ForumFostering Effective Energy Transition:2

279、023 Edition30Speed and scale:Advanced energy solutionsAdvanced solutions including hydrogen,sustainable aviation fuels,advanced nuclear,storage,carbon and demand management harness,manage and use clean energy across the energy system.As key enablers of the energy transition,they help address the int

280、ermittency of renewable energy,enable electrification of transport and industry,improve system efficiency,decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors and eliminate CO2 from the atmosphere.The IEA estimates that around$2.8 trillion will be invested in energy in 2023.More than$1.7 trillion is going to clean ene

281、rgy,including renewable power,nuclear,grids,storage,low-emission fuels,efficiency improvements and end-use renewables and electrification.For every$1 spent on fossil fuels,$1.7 is now spent on clean energy.Five years ago this ratio was 1:1.The price of solar modules declined by 99.6%since 1976FIGURE

282、 13Price per Watt of solar photovoltaics(PV)modules(logarithmic axis)The prices are adjusted for inflation and presented in 2019 US$.$0.51 MW=1,000,000 Watt2MW5MW20MW50MW10 MW100 MW1,000 MW10,000 MW100,000 MW$1$2$5$10$20$50$100Cumaltive installed solar PV capacity(logarithmic axis)197719761978197919

283、80198119831985198619901994199519982000200220052008200920102011201220132015With each doubling of installed capacity the price of solar modules dropped on average by 20.2%.This is the learning rate of solar modules.20162019Source:Roser,Max,“Why did renewables become so cheap so fast?”,Our World in Dat

284、a,1December 2020,https:/ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth(accessed 17May 2023).4.3 A closer look at innovationLike wind and solar,the giga scale and industrialization of advanced solutions have the potential to drive down costs thus,there is a need to exponentially accelerate the speed and

285、scale of their deployment.For example,to be on the path to net zero by 2050,the energy system needs to see battery storage capacity grow 15 times22 and carbon capture,usage and storage 40 times23 by 2030.Similarly,the clean hydrogen market is expected to grow from$0.5 billion to$120 billion24 and ad

286、vanced biofuels from$3 billion to$180 billion.25Fostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition31Deployment at this scale needs to be backed by significant capital.The IEA notes that$0.9 trillion needs to be invested by 2030 to modernize electricity networks and build public electric vehicle char

287、ging stations,hydrogen refuelling stations,direct air capture and CO2 pipelines,storage facilities,and import and export terminals.Further,$1.7 trillion needs to be invested annually in low-carbon technologies in end-use sectors.26 Most of this investment will need to come from the private sector,su

288、pported by public policies that create incentives and set appropriate regulatory frameworks.A growing number of investors from both specialized and larger infrastructure funds are actively seeking opportunities in the sector.Moreover,governments provide strong support through policies aiming to mult

289、iply clean energy investments.Innovative capital market instruments,such as green bonds,open additional avenues to increase funding.The green bonds market experienced spectacular growth from$36 billion worth of issuances to$270 billion in 2020.27 Subsequently,an increasing number of projects are bei

290、ng announced and deployed.The IEA has observed that,“announced electric vehicle battery production capacity for 2030 is only 15%lower than the level of battery demand underpinning the IEAs Net Zero Emissions Scenario”and“cumulative output of electrolyser manufacturing capacity could reach 380 GW by

291、2030,which is still little more than half of 2030 needs”in that scenario.28However,it is often difficult for investors to find opportunities that match their profile in terms of scale and maturity.The risk appetite of financial institutions is not always tailored to support advanced solutions.This i

292、s a challenge in emerging markets and developing economies,causing them to receive a small fraction of investments.In addition,sovereign and currency risks,the lack of standards and regulations,and slow permitting processes remain significant barriers to clean energy investments in these economies.A

293、chieving the needed pace and scale of growth and investments requires innovators,large energy producers and users,and investors to form partnerships and play their part.To aid in this process,the World Economic Forum is producing the“Handbook for Exponential Deployment of Advanced Energy”,which will

294、 include a set of strategic recommendations for these key stakeholders to expand and accelerate the deployment of advanced energy solutions.This initiative,led by the Forums Advanced Energy Solutions community,engages leaders in frontier,fast-growing segments of the energy system and seeks to help e

295、radicate the green premium and maximize co-benefits.32Fostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 EditionConclusion5Several environmental,macroeconomic and geopolitical events over the past decade have affected the energy system in myriad ways and highlighted the complexities of the energy transition

296、.Over the past decade,the world has made significant strides towards transitioning to low-carbon energy systems,although not at the pace required to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.The lack of consistent and balanced progress for many countries highlights the challenge of navigating the energy tr

297、ansition.By elevating energy security to be a cornerstone of the framework,advances in the secure dimension can be seen as countries aim for a stable and secure supply of energy to maintain economic growth,national security and the well-being of their populations.Very few countries,however,are advan

298、cing momentum across the equitable,secure and sustainable dimensions,and improvements in security are being delivered at the expense of the others.The strong competition for secured access to gas suppliers and stocks replenishment,along with concerns about security of supply,pose significant challen

299、ges for the upcoming winter.Additionally,some areas will come under future scrutiny,such as the importance of critical raw materials,upcoming regulatory obligations for reporting on sustainable investments,and the vulnerability of energy systems to extreme weather events.While a decarbonized future

300、energy system can provide energy security dividends from abundant and localized low-carbon energy sources,ensuring energy security and affordability through the transition will require fossil fuels in the medium term.29 Countries will need to adjust demand and improve economics of supply to minimize

301、 emissions.Cleaner energy sources and technologies will be required in the next two to three years to meet 2030 targets and limit the effects of climate change.Most of these have existed for decades but will need greater and more targeted investment or incentives.To ensure an equitable transition,gr

302、eater investment will also be required in skills training,research,innovation and incentives to build sustainable supply chains that protect ecosystems and cultures.30 Policies have emerged but require implementation.The focus of the energy transition needs to shift to more populous and developing n

303、ations in Asia,Latin America,Africa and the Middle East,as they account for a significant portion of the worlds population as well as global carbon emissions.While several countries are committing to the energy transition and have vast renewable energy resources,they lack the finances and technical

304、know-how to develop them fully.By collaborating and providing support,a more secure,sustainable and equitable future can be found for many.Bolstering the enabling environment will put these countries on the leading edge.As for the upcoming COP28 summit,which will include the conclusion of the first

305、Global Stocktake,an assessment of the worlds progress towards achieving its climate goals.The stocktake will capture what countries and stakeholders are doing or failing to do to fulfil the Paris Agreement.What is clear from this years ETI,however,is that countries must move at a faster pace than th

306、ey are now to transform their energy systems;moreover,the window for such effort is closing.The actions taken in the early years of this decade of delivery will be critical in ensuring that strong,long-term ambition is supported by immediate progress.31 The focus must be on enhancing an equitable tr

307、ansition,which has been traded off rather than enabled by the focus on the secure and sustainable dimensions.The energy transition must be made resilient to maintain speed under current volatilities and during potential future domestic or international disruptions.Fostering Effective Energy Transiti

308、on:2023 Edition33Country performance profiles6These countries stand out for laying the groundwork for a robust energy transition.Fostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition34Key macroeconomic and ETI dataPopulation(millions)83.2Energy consumption per capita(GJ/capita)140.1GDP($trillions)4.26N

309、et energy imports(%of energy use)65.02.7050.62Energy intensity(MJ/$2017 PPP GDP)CO2 intensity(CO2/TPES)GermanyCountry and peer groupa system performance and transition readiness,2014-2023Energy transition current assessmentSystem performanceTransition readinessMomentum67.511/120ETI ScoreRank80201420

310、15201620172018-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%20192020EquitableSecureSustainableLeadingAdvancingAdvancing202120222023604020Score(0100)020406080100EquitableSustainableSecure020406080100Regulations andpolitical commitmentFinance and investment Education andhuman capitalInfrastructureInnovationSystem performanceTrans

311、ition readinessNote:GJ=gigajoule;MJ=megajoule;PPP=purchasing power parity;TPES=total primary energy supplySource:World Economic ForumNote:a Relevant World Economic Forum peer group:Advanced economies Source:World Economic ForumCountryPeer groupFostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition35Coun

312、try analysisKey progress on ETIGermany is the fourth-largest economy in the world and ranks 11 out of 120 countries on the ETI 2023.Since 2014,Germanys score on the ETI has increased by 6%,which shows both the robustness of its energy transition efforts and the challenges large economies face in imp

313、roving quickly.Within system performance,Germanys scores on the secure and sustainable dimensions have improved,driven largely by supply security,an increase in share of renewable energy in the electricity mix and strong reductions in the energy intensity of the economy.Even though the carbon intens

314、ity of the overall energy mix has declined over the years by 9%,it remains relatively high,owing to persistent challenges in decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors,such as heating,transport and heavy industry.Germany ranks fifth globally on transition readiness,which provides an assessment of the enabl

315、ing environment for energy transition,as it is one of the top three countries on regulation and political commitment.Key imperatives and policies in placeThe core elements of Germanys energy transition are improving energy efficiency and expanding renewables as quickly as possible.The government has

316、 invested in the development of energy-efficient technologies and infrastructure,such as smart grids and electric vehicle charging stations.This has resulted in Germany now producing over 40%of its electricity from renewables,32 having set a goal of reaching 80%by 2030.33 The country has introduced

317、several policies aimed at increasing the share of renewables in the energy mix,phasing out nuclear power(with the last plant closing in April 2023)and reducing GHG emissions,resulting in the country becoming a leader in the energy transition.The Energiewende(energy transition)was instituted nearly a

318、 decade ago as a plan for transforming the energy system,making it more efficient and supplied mainly by renewable energy.The German Renewable Energy Sources Act has played a significant role in the transition by providing a legal framework and financial incentives for the expansion of renewable ene

319、rgy sources.This,together with the Energy Industry Act,forms the legal basis of the German energy industry and provides“a framework policy to enhance competition,security of supply and sustainable energy production Furthermore,this Act stipulates supplementary provisions for the access of electricit

320、y from renewable sources to the grid as well as the construction of intelligent grids including electricity storage.In 2012 the law was amended to speed up the expansion of offshore wind farms.The major focus is on a system change towards a consistent and efficient offshore grid expansion by introdu

321、cinga binding offshore grid development plan”.34 The government also passed a law in 2020 that required phasing out all coal-fired electricity generation no later than 2038;the timeline was recently brought forward to 2030.The net result of these policies is reflected in the countrys high ETI scores

322、 on regulation and political commitment,as well as decarbonized and clean energy.Whats next?Energy transition remains a process as Germanys diversification of its energy mix is not purely focused on sustainability and efficiency gains but also on security.Over-reliance on imported gas from Russia an

323、d high energy prices were the main challenges faced by Germany during the energy crisis.The Russia-Ukraine war prompted the government to institute emergency measures,such as building LNG regasification capacity and delaying coal plant closures,which slowed down the transition momentum and locked in

324、 more emissions in the system.To ensure reduced dependence on Russian gas and accelerate the longer-term transition in Germany,the government has instituted numerous amendments to existing laws and funding programmes that primarily focus on enhancing the nations renewable energy capabilities,particu

325、larly in onshore wind;increasing the volume of renewable power auctions;and speeding up grid planning and the growth of offshore wind connections to carry electricity generated from wind power in northern Germany to large industrial complexes in the south.Additional actions,such as“creating the lega

326、l and financial frameworks for carbon contracts for difference,an instrument that supports industry in transitioning to climate-neutral production processes”,35 promoting research and development in green hydrogen to create modern future-oriented climate protection technologies,and forming strategic

327、 partnerships,could help ensure an orderly energy transition in Germany and provide lessons for other countries.Energy policy priorities Cover at least 80%of gross electricity consumption by renewable sources by 2030 Have at least 15 million electric cars in 2030 Install 1 million public charging po

328、ints with non-discriminatory access by 2030Stated energy transition goals Reduce GHG emissions by at least 55%by 2030 compared to 1990 Achieve net-zero emissions by 2045 Phase out coal-fired power generation by 2038 Reduce primary energy consumption by 50%by 2050Fostering Effective Energy Transition

329、:2023 Edition36Key macroeconomic and ETI dataPopulation(millions)331.9Energy consumption per capita(GJ/capita)257.4GDP($trillions)23.32Net energy imports(%of energy use)-4.04.2749.90Source:World Economic ForumEnergy intensity(MJ/$2017 PPP GDP)CO2 intensity(CO2/TPES)United StatesSystem performanceTra

330、nsition readiness66.312/1208020142015201620172018-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%20192020EquitableSecureSustainableStabilizingLeadingAdvancing202120222023604020Score(0100)020406080100EquitableSustainableSecure020406080100Finance and investment InfrastructureInnovationSystem performanceTransition readiness66.3Count

331、ry and peer groupa system performance and transition readiness,2014-2023Note:GJ=gigajoule;MJ=megajoule;PPP=purchasing power parity;TPES=total primary energy supplyNote:a Relevant World Economic Forum peer group:Advanced economies Source:World Economic ForumCountryPeer groupEnergy transition current

332、assessmentMomentumETI ScoreRankRegulations andpolitical commitmentEducation andhuman capitalFostering Effective Energy Transition:2023 Edition37Country analysisKey progress on ETIThe United States(US)ranks 12 out of 120 countries on the ETI 2023.The overall ETI score for the US has seen a 10%gain ov

333、er the past 10 years,driven by improvements in system performance,particularly in the secure and sustainable dimensions.Within the sustainable dimension,energy intensity and CO2 emissions per capita saw marked gains since 2014,falling by 20%and 22%,respectively.The focus on sustainability is further highlighted by the countrys momentum in this dimension.Within transition readiness,further improvem