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1、Consumer Packaged Goods PracticeEuropean consumer companies are seeking growth at a volatile momentExpectations for growth are declining,but investment is still projected to rise.Executives report on their plans to confront this changing environment with a diversified set of growth levers.by Simon L

2、and,Kathleen Martens,Duncan Miller,and Ren SchmutzlerJune 2023European consumer companies are seeking growth at a volatile moment2Amid a shifting macroeconomic landscape,we surveyed 175European executives to better understand how mid-cap consumer companies grow,what kinds of challenges theyre facing

3、,and what levers they plan to use to boost future growth.This surveys respondents are C-level executives at European-based companies with annual revenues between 50 million and 3 billion.The survey was in the field during March 2023 and builds on a survey conducted in fall 2022.While the previous su

4、rvey revealed actions that have delivered success in the past,this survey focuses on the future plans of companies with high-growth ambitions.Among its major findings:novel challenges are surfacing,core business activities are gaining in importance,and companies are updating their investment priorit

5、ies.It will be critical to carefully manage ROI in a future where growth slows even as investments in growth increase.It will be critical to carefully manage ROI in a future where growth slows even as investments in growth increase.3European consumer companies are seeking growth at a volatile moment

6、Past 3 yearsHigh growth(10%CAGR)High growthMedium growthLow growthPast performance of companies withhigh-growth ambition,%of companies Medium growth(410%CAGR)Low growth(4%CAGR)Next 3 years24283647402572217Past and projected growth rates for European consumer mid-cap companies,%of respondentsSource:2

7、023 McKinsey EU Mid-Cap Consumer Growth Survey(n=173)Mid-cap consumer executives expect diminishing future growth.McKinsey&CompanyCompanies will need to adopt bolder mindsets as growth outperformance becomes more elusiveExpectations for growth have dimmed.About 40 percent of all respondents report t

8、hat their companies experienced high growthmeaning compound annual growth rates(CAGR)topping 10 percentfrom 2020 to 2022,but only about 25 percent of respondents express ambitions to reach that rate of growth over the next three years.The winners of the past do not necessarily expect to be the winne

9、rs of the future:of respondents whose companies previously logged high growth,only about 45percent expect to continue at the same pace or exceed it.Within this challenging context,one groups ambitions stand out:respondents from companies owned by venture capital or private equity firms report higher

10、 growth goals than their peers.Other types of companies might consider adopting similarly bold mindsets as a means of pushing themselves to achieve more growth.4European consumer companies are seeking growth at a volatile momentChallenges are shifting,new concerns are emerging,and companies will nee

11、d to stay agile to adaptIts no surprise to learn that pandemic-related issues head the list of growth obstacles that mid-cap consumer executives faced over the past three years.Supply chain disruptions(67 percent)and supply chain inflexibility(30percent)remain top of mindjust as they were in our pre

12、vious surveywhen respondents were asked to rank the five greatest challenges impeding recent growth.But as the world emerges from the depths of the pandemic,respondents expect to encounter an altered mix of challenges.Rising inflation is becoming a major concernnamed by 42percent of respondents.Sink

13、ing consumer sentiment has also entered the picture,with 27 percent of respondents placing it on their top five lists.Beneath these headline items,however,the survey reveals significant differences among sectors.Consumer goods executives name competitive pressure as their number-one future growth ob

14、stacle;retail executives name operating model challenges;and restaurant executives name(overwhelmingly)inflation.Faced with unpredictable headwinds,companies should ensure that they have a strong system in place to spot new challenges as they arise while maintaining the flexibility needed to quickly

15、 update plans in response.Top fve challenges to growth,%of respondents who ranked challenge in top fveSource:2023 McKinsey EU Mid-Cap Consumer Growth Survey(n=173)Pandemic-era obstacles for consumer companies are subsiding as new challenges arise.McKinsey&CompanyPast 3 yearsNext 3 yearsChange in ran

16、kSupply chaindisruptionLack of supplychain fexibilityCompetitivepressureOperating modelchallengesGlobal trade andgeopolitical tensionsPassing throughinfationSupply chaindisruptionCompetitivepressureOperating modelchallengesConsumersentiment1234512345673030282842393834275European consumer companies a

17、re seeking growth at a volatile momentCompanies plan to use a broad set of levers to achieve future growthA company can benefit from exploring three approaches to seeking profitable growth:strengthening the core of its business,expanding into adjacencies,and igniting breakout businesses.Survey respo

18、ndents expect more than half of future growthincluding long-term growthto come from their core businesses(meaning existing categories and markets).The expected importance of this core has increased since our previous survey,in which respondents projected that about 40percent of growth would be core-

19、driven.That said,the role of adjacencies and breakout businesses in driving growth is expected to increase in importance over the longer term.Whatever the mix of levers chosen,fast execution is a common goal.Several survey respondents say that not acting faster is their number-one regret when they r

20、eview their performance over the past three years.Further nuances in emphasis emerge at the sector level.Consumer goods manufacturers list product innovation and expansion into new categories that are closely adjacent to their core businesses as their top growth levers.But among those who report com

21、paratively higher future growth expectations,a slightly different mix of levers comes to the fore:these executives are more likely to underindex on marketing efficiency and expansion into closely core-adjacent categories while overindexing on pricing,expansion into new markets distant from their cor

22、e businesses,and backward vertical integration(a process in which companies gain control of operations that exist further up the supply chain).Consumer goods growth levers1Most frequently ranked in top 3.Source:2023 McKinsey EU Mid-Cap Consumer Growth Survey(n=70)Consumer goods executives tend to pr

23、ioritize product innovation and expansion into new categories close to their cores.McKinsey&CompanyTop growth lever1More important for companieswith high-growth ambitionProductinnovationsNew categoriesclose to coreDisruptive productinnovationPricingNew marketsdistant from coreBackward verticalintegr

24、ationMarketingefciencyNew categoriesclose to coreB2B/e-commerceExpanding the coreAdjacent businessesBreakout businessesLess important for companieswith high-growth ambition6European consumer companies are seeking growth at a volatile momentRetailers are eager to establish their own marketplacesRetai

25、lers envision using a mix of levers(including store experience optimization,assortment optimization and expansion,and omnichannel integration)to strengthen their core businesses,with no single lever being the dominant choice.Respondents with high-growth ambitions focus in particular on assortment ex

26、pansion and optimization,while putting less emphasis on store optimization.When expanding into adjacencies,respondents expect to focus primarily on new categories and new channels.However,for retailers with high-growth ambitions,new channels rank much further down the list(in ninth place).Respondent

27、s expect their efforts to launch breakout businesses to be focused on establishing their own marketplaces and on disruptive product innovations(with companies that express high-growth ambitions placing added emphasis on establishing their own marketplaces).Retail growth levers1Most frequently ranked

28、 in top 3.Source:2023 McKinsey EU Mid-Cap Consumer Growth Survey(n=75)Retail executives are focused on improving store experiences,expanding into new categories,and establishing their own marketplaces.McKinsey&CompanyTop growth lever1More important for companieswith high-growth ambitionStore experie

29、nceoptimizationNewcategoriesOwnmarketplacesAssortmentexpansionNew market opening(close to core)OwnmarketplacesStore experienceoptimizationNewchannelsB2BpartnershipsExpanding the coreAdjacent businessesBreakout businessesLess important for companieswith high-growth ambition7European consumer companie

30、s are seeking growth at a volatile momentRestaurant executives hope to expand into new channelsThis edition of the survey adds executives from restaurant companies to the mix of respondents.When asked how they plan to grow their core businesses over the next three years,restaurant executives report

31、that they expect their top growth levers to be improving same-store sales,opening new channels,and maximizing digital channels.Restaurant respondents also project that digital solutions will remain the most important factor in their efforts to expand breakout businesses,while caveating that digitiza

32、tion will become slightly less relevant in comparison to the role it played over the past three years.Asked how they plan to help breakout businesses succeed,restaurant executives say they expect to increase focus on backward vertical integration.Restaurant growth levers1Most frequently ranked in to

33、p 3.Source:2023 McKinsey EU Mid-Cap Consumer Growth Survey(n=30)Restaurant executives are focused on improving same-store sales,launching new channels,and creating digital solutions.McKinsey&CompanyTop growth lever1More important vs past 3 yearsCore format/same-store salesNewchannelsDigitalsolutions

34、ProductinnovationNo signifcantshiftsBackward verticalintegrationCore format/same-store salesNewmarketsDigital solutions(remains#1)Expanding the coreAdjacent businessesBreakout businessesLess important vs past 3 years8European consumer companies are seeking growth at a volatile momentInvestment level

35、s are projected to increase,with optimization of ROI becoming more critical than everOverall,respondents expect their companies to increase investment levels over the next three years(compared with the past three years)in an effort to create more growth.Capital expenditure is projected to be the num

36、ber-one investment area overall,while external marketing tops the list of investment areas for companies with high-growth ambitions.At the sector level,consumer goods manufacturers report little change in their ranking of investment priorities,with capital expenditures and external marketing leading

37、 the way.For restaurants,upskilling and training are expected to be major investment areasranked second in priority after capital expenditure over the next three years.Retailers expect external marketing to become their most substantial future investment area,followed by capital expenditure and R&D

38、innovation.In general,companies with low historic growth rates and low growth ambitions tend to invest less than their peers.Average share of revenue allocated for investment,by investment area,%Source:2023 McKinsey EU Mid-Cap Consumer Growth Survey(n=173)Respondents expect higher overall investment

39、 levels,with top priority granted to capital expenditures and external marketing.McKinsey&CompanyPast 3 yearsNext 3 yearsCapital expenditureExternal marketingR&D and innovationSoftware and toolsRecruitingUpskilling and trainingExternal advisory10976553European consumer companies are seeking growth a

40、t a volatile momentTo deliver continuous,profitable growth,a company can pursue three growth pathways:growing the core of its business,expanding into adjacencies,and igniting breakout businesses.To deliver continuous,profitable growth,a company can pursue three growth pathways:growing the core of it

41、s business,expanding into adjacencies,and igniting breakout businesses.If a company ignores any of these crucial avenues to growth,it risks falling behind its competition.Our prior research suggests there are four crucial lessons to learn from companies that have succeeded in the past:Apply a ventur

42、e capital or private equity mindset to your growth strategy.Dont underestimate the potential contributions of your core business.Make sure you have a sharply defined strategy and sense of direction for growth.Link your strategic growth vision and direction to a clear and essential set of targets and

43、 key performance indicators.Our new research confirms these insights and also sheds further light on how companies plan to achieve high growth in the futurewith challenges shifting,high-growth rates becoming even more difficult to achieve,and optimizing ROI for growth becoming more imperative than e

44、ver.Asking several diagnostic questions can help stress-test strategies for extraordinary growth in the consumer sector:Are you continuously choosing growthby emulating a venture capital or private equity mindseteven if you have achieved high growth in the past?Are you equipped to quickly notice and

45、 react to evolving barriers to growth,as well as evolving opportunities?Are you exploring all three avenues of growth(core,adjacencies,breakout businesses)?Are you focusing enough on growing your core business?What set of levers will you trust to drive growth?Are investment decisions in line with wh

46、at is needed to boost growth in a more challenging context?How are you managing ROI,given increased pressure?9Designed by McKinsey Global PublishingCopyright 2021 McKinsey&Company.All rights reserved.Simon Land is a senior partner in McKinseys Dsseldorf office,Kathleen Martens is a partner in the Br

47、ussels office,Duncan Miller is a senior partner in the Atlanta office,and Ren Schmutzler is a partner in the Hamburg office.The authors wish to thank Anas Schmidt and Christina Tamussino for their contributions to this article.Designed by McKinsey Global PublishingCopyright 2023 McKinsey&Company.All rights reserved.Scan Download PersonalizeFind more content like this on the McKinsey Insights App