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1、?ReviewersThe authors would like to thank the experts who reviewed this report,formally or informally,at different stages throughout its development process(in alphabetical order):Andr Baniwa,Caio Koch-Weser,Carlos Muoz Pia,Elizabeth Farina,Fabola Zerbini,Fernanda Boscaini,Gustavo Pinheiro,Henrique

2、Evers,Henrique Roncada,Itamar Melo,Joaquim Levy,Julio Alves,Laize Sampaio,Lara Caccia,Laura Malaguzzi Valeri,Luiz H.Calado,Maritta Koch-Weser,Monika Roper,Patricia Pinho,Paulo Amaral,Pedro Frizo,Robin King,Rodolpho Zahluth Bastos,Smela Sater-Mau,Luis Antonio Lindau and Vanessa Perez.Suggested Citati

3、onNobre,C.A.et al.(2023)New Economy for the Brazilian Amazon.So Paulo:WRI Brasil.Report.Available in:www.wribrasil.org.br/nova-economia-da-amazoniaImprintResearch Supervision Thiago Guimares RodriguesEditorial Coordination Joana Oliveira de Oliveira and Karoline BarrosEngagement Coordination Karolin

4、e Barros Photo Curation Marlon F.Marinho and Anale PaulinoMaps edition Leonardo da Silva BarbosaTranslation Patricia Davanzzo Design and Layout Nektar Design(.br)Cover photo Valdemir Cunha/GreenpeaceJunho de 2023Research CoordinationRafael Feltran-Barbieri,Carlos A.Nobre,Caroline Medeiros Rocha Fras

5、son,Paulo Camuri and Carolina Genin.AuthorsCarlos A.Nobre,Rafael Feltran-Barbieri,Francisco de Assis Costa,Eduardo A.Haddad,Roberto Schaeffer,Edson Paulo Domingues,Caroline Medeiros Rocha Frasson,Paulo Camuri,Carolina Genin,Alexandre Szklo,Andre F.P.Lucena,Danilo Arajo Fernandes,Harley Silva,Raul Ve

6、ntura,Ricardo Theophilo Folhes,Ana Carolina Oliveira Fiorini,Ademir M.Rocha,Alberto Jos Leandro Santos,Aldebaro Barreto da Rocha Klautau Junior,Aline Souza Magalhes,Amanda Vinhoza,Andr Luiz Menezes Vianna,Andrea M.Bassi,Antnio Jorge Gomes Abelm,Braulina Baniwa,Bruno Felin,Camila Ludovique Callegari,

7、Carlos Blener,David Castelo Branco,Ellen Claudine Cardoso Castro,Eugnio Pantoja,Fernando S.Perobelli,Francisco Apurin,Gabriel Pisa Folhes,Gabriela Nascimento da Silva,Gabriela Savian,Georg Pallaske,Gerd Brantes Angelkorte,Gil Castello Branco,Heron Martins,Huang Ken Wei,Iara Vicente,Incio F Arajo,Ina

8、i Takaes Santos,Jefferson F.Ferreira,Joana Portugal Pereira,Joo Daniel Macedo S,Jordano Buzati,Karina S.Sass,Knia Barreiro de Souza,Leonardo Barbosa,Leonardo Garrido,Leticia Magalar Martins de Souza,Leticia Rodrigues Soares,Lucas Paiva Ferraz,Lucas Silva Carvalho,Lucca Lanaro,Luciana Alves,Luiz Bern

9、ardo Baptista,Marco Guzzetti,Maria Amlia Enriquez,Maria Eduarda Senna Mury,Mariana Imprio,Mariana Oliveira,Mariana Padilha Campos Lopes,Marlia Gabriela Silva Lobato,Marta Salomon,Pedro Filipe Campos Rampini,Pedro R.R.Rochedo,Raissa Guerra,Rodney Rooney Salomo Reis,Rogger Mathaus Magalhes Barreiros,T

10、arik Marques do Prado Tanure,Terciane Sabadini Carvalho,Thiago Cavalcante Simonato and Virgnia Barbosa.?.AcknowledgementsThis report was led by the WRI Brasil and The New Climate Economy teams and produced in collaboration with more than 75 researchers from various Brazilian regions,and organization

11、s,which we thank for their technical and institutional support:NAEA-UFPA,Nereus-USP,Fipe,Cenergia-Coppe-UFRJ,Ipead-Cedeplar-UFMG,Ipam,Idesam,Associao Contas Abertas,CCCA and Uma Concertao pela Amaznia.Financial support from Instituto Clima e Sociedade(iCS),the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs,the

12、Federal Ministry for the Environment,Nature Conservation,Nuclear Safety and Consumer Protection of Germany,Instituto Arapya,Good Energies Foundation,and the Climate and Land Use Alliance(CLUA)was vital for the conduction of the study.We thank all the people who contributed to the research at differe

13、nt stages.Among them,the people interviewed at Acampamento Terra Livre(ATL)and throughout 2022,as well as the consultants who enabled the production of this report.The following list should not be taken as exhaustive,but exemplifies people who shared their time and knowledge(in alphabetical order):A

14、dilson Joanico Baniwa,Adriana Lobo,Ana Terra Yawalapiti,Anderson Rogerio Lopes,Angela Mendes,Antnio Arajo da Silva Apurin,Beptuk Kayap,Berta Pinheiro,Bia Saldanha,Camila Carolina,Carina Pimenta,Cira Moura,Crisanto Rudz Tseremeyw,Danilo Igliori,Demetrio Tiriyo,Denison Duarte dos Santos,Edilson Martin

15、s Melgueiro,Edivan Silva de Carvalho,Edmilson dos Santos Oliveira,Eduardo Correa Tavares,Eduardo Malta,Elcio Filho Manchineri,Erika de Paula Pedro Pinto,Evaldo Bruno Martins,Fbio Heuseler Ferreira Leite,Fabricia Saban,Florinda Tuyuka,Francineia Fontes,Genilson Guajajara,Gustavo Fontenele,Hlio Jorge

16、da Cunha,Izabella Teixeira,Janete Martins lana,Joaquim Jos Martins Guilhoto,Johannes van de Ven,Jucleison do Santos Anik,Kreusa Nunes Andr,Lindalva Felix Zaquri,Luciane Rodrigues,Lucimar Souza,Manoel Serro Borges de Sampaio,Marago Ikpeng,Marcela Rodrigues,Marcelo Furtado,Marek Hanush,Mrio Fadell,Mas

17、awkatxi Apurin,Mauri Kurio Boe,Narciso Pantoja,Neuraci Charles,Olavo Kamuu Dan Wapichana,Orem Ikpeng,Oyago Suru,Paulo Moutinho,Renata Cordeiro,Renee Pineda,Rodrigo Junqueira,Samia Apurin,Samuel Lima Pereira Arara,Sandra Regina,Saulo de Tarso Vale Bente,Sebastio Krah,Srgio Andr Castelani,Shirley Amai

18、r,Suely Arajo,Tari Kayabi,Tatiana Schor,Terekwyi Gavio,Tilho Nascimento Felix Arara,Ture Kayap,Tutuma Ikpeng,Valmir Ortega,Vanuza Guajajara,Viviane Romeiro,Waduwabati Suya,Wagner Katamy and Walmyr Tapirap.We are also grateful to the communication and engagement teams at WRI Brasil and The New Climat

19、e Economy(in alphabetical order):Alex Simpkins,Andrea Mendez,Bruno Calixto,Bruno Felin,Cristina Bodas,Fernando Correa,Guilherme Cutrim,Lais Assumpo,Jenna Ellingson,Joana Oliveira de Oliveira,Karoline Barros,Laio Teixeira,Madhavi Ganeshan,Nate Shelter,Pandora Batra,Sara Ascher,Yelena Akopian,the enti

20、re WRI Brasil team,WRI,The New Climate Economy and partner organizations.Family farming fruit harvest in Apu,Amazonas.Photo:Dereck Mangabeira/Idesam.ForewordThe coming decades will define whether the Amazon home to more than 28 million inhabitants,198 indigenous peoples,and harboring the most biodiv

21、erse forest,the largest freshwater reservoir and the largest tropical bloc for climate regulation on the planet will become the great catalyst for Brazils low-carbon economy.Or whether,in the opposite direction,the Amazon will reach an irreversible point of degradation,deepening current inequalities

22、 and jeopardizing the stability and competitiveness of the countrys entire economy.How to guide the Legal Amazon towards a decarbonization trajectory,transforming the regions economy so that it grows,generates opportunities,values local cultures and environmental assets,while fighting inequality and

23、 deforestation?This question motivated the 76 researchers who signed the New Economy for the Amazon report.The study combines different techniques and knowledge to present a unique depiction of the Legal Amazons current economy,bringing to light the regions economic and environmental relations with

24、the rest of Brazil and the world.The study focuses on carbon-intensive sectors that must change course in order to become a relevant part of a standing forest economy,more suited to the challenges of this century.The study further explores the role of the bioeconomy,revealing a vigorous activity hit

25、herto invisible to conventional instruments used to measure economic activity.Although it is based on the secular form of production of the original peoples,constantly innovated by local technologies developed in Amazonian villages,rural areas and cities,the bioeconomy remains underestimated in term

26、s of its current impact and future potential.The work provides visibility to these activities,demonstrating their relevance as a solution for the regions future economy.The report also assesses the economic performance of the Legal Amazon under different scenarios,comparing the current trajectory,wh

27、ich has been driving degradation,with alternative decarbonization scenarios,especially in the agricultural,livestock and energy sectors.More than comparing GDP and job creation results,as economic performance is traditionally assessed,the New Economy for the Amazon gives shape to a qualitative analy

28、sis of that which is wanted for the future and there is no future for Brazil without the Amazon.The results show that it is impossible for the country to reach its Paris Agreement targets and contribute to curbing global warming without eliminating deforestation in the Amazon.Even assuming that defo

29、restation is eliminated,it will still be necessary to restore large areas of the forest and adopt new ways of generating and consuming energy,whether in rural or urban areas.This report proposes a transition that generates quality jobs and opportunities for the regions citizens,while driving importa

30、nt changes in the rest of the country.The New Economy for the Amazon can be the great catalyst for the decarbonization of the entire Brazilian economy and the greatest opportunity for economic and social development in the countrys contemporary history.Fernanda Boscaini Executive Director of WRI Bra

31、silNew Economy for the Brazilian Amazon7Highlights The Amazon rainforest is on the cusp of a crucial tipping point following decades of extensive deforestation that would have widespread ramifications for Brazils people and economy,and the global climate.A new analysis of various scenarios for the B

32、razilian Amazons economy through 2050 finds that a deforestation-free,low-carbon pathway delivers the largest and most equitable economic growth for the region and for the whole country.This scenario called the New Economy for the Brazilian Amazon includes several major yet achievable transformation

33、s:zero deforestation,expanding the Amazons bioeconomy to sustainably produce goods,expanding forest restoration,adopting low-emissions agriculture and livestock practices,and decarbonizing Brazils energy mix.EXECUTIVESUMMARYThis scenario would produce significant economic,jobs,and climate benefits f

34、or Brazil.By 2050,the Brazilian Amazon economys GDP would grow by BRL 40 billion above the reference scenario,while adding 312,000 additional jobs.Brazil would also have 81 million more hectares of standing forests compared to business as usual and reduce its emissions by 94%,meeting its Paris Agree

35、ment climate target.The investments to finance this transition are 1.8%of Brazils national GDP per year,just 0.8%more than the reference scenario,or an additional BRL 2.56 trillion by 2050.The Amazon would be the great catalyst for the decarbonizing the entire Brazilian economy,as investments would

36、flow throughout the country.SUMMARYNew Economy for the Brazilian Amazon9ContextThe Brazilian Legal Amazon(LAM),an area covering almost 60%of the Brazilian territory,holds the most extensive and biodiverse forest in the world,the largest freshwater reservoir and the most important climate regulating

37、forest block on the planet,embracing a significant part of the Cerrado biodiversity hotspot.It is home to 28 million Brazilians,198 indigenous ethnic groups from almost 50 language families.Despite its unique cultural and biological richness,LAM has suffered a chronic process of degradation,with 83

38、million hectares of primary forests having been cleared,jeopardizing its capacity to absorb carbon and provide ecosystem services-such as climate regulation and rainfall irrigation-for which there are no economically viable substitutes on such a large scale,for the own Amazon and surrounds economy,e

39、specially agriculture and livestock.Climate change negatively impacts the forest and the economy,disproportionately affecting the poorest and already vulnerable populations.In addition to forest degradation and erosion of biodiversity,reducing the conditions of subsistence of traditional populations

40、,climate change has a direct impact on agriculture,which is highly dependent on rainfall,as 96%of planted areas and 99%of pastures in Brazil do not have any irrigation systems in place(IBGE,2019).The poorest people are the biggest victims of food price fluctuations resulting from crop failures and s

41、hortages due to systemic weather events such as droughts and floods.Living in areas at risk,with poor sanitation and without adequate assistance,the poor are also primarily affected by increases in flash floods,landslides,and epidemics.Stopping deforestation and curbing global warming are crucial fo

42、r the people of Amazon and beyond.Achieving the Paris Agreement goals and reducing emissions to curb global warming to 1.5C requires investments of around 2%of global GDP per year until stability in greenhouse gas(GHG)concentrations in the atmosphere is achieved(Stern,2015).Exceeding the 1.5C thresh

43、old considerably increases the investments needed to adapt and replace carbon-intensive processes,as well as increases the costs of recovering from more severe climate impacts,which may require up to 9%of global GDP per year(Guo,Kubli,&Saner,2021).Late afternoon in the Ver-o-Peso market,in Belm,Par.

44、Photo:Nayara Jinknss/WRI Brasil.wribrasil.org.br10Brazils role in containing global warming is vital and will require shifting to an economy that is free of deforestation and forest degradation,with low-carbon agricultural,livestock and industrial production.Brazil emitted about 67 gigatons of carbo

45、n dioxide(GtCO2)over the past 30 years(SEEG,2022).To meet the Paris Agreement goals and curb global warming to 1.5C,this study estimates that the balance of Brazils emissions between 2020 and 2050(carbon budget)cannot exceed 7.7 GtCO2.In the Legal Amazon,net emissions cannot exceed 1.4 GtCO2 by 2050

46、,which corresponds to a 96%reduction compared to the 36 GtCO2 emitted over the past 30 years.The New Economy for the Brazilian Amazon The New Economy for the Brazilian Amazon (NEA-BR),an initiative by WRI Brasil in partnership with Brazilian research institutions and organizations from different reg

47、ions,recognizes that advancing economic and social development combined with climate mitigation calls for profound changes in Brazils economy.The initiative positions the Amazon as the great catalyst for these changes across Brazil.This report shows that investments in conserving and expanding natur

48、al assets,strengthening the bioeconomy,and shifting agriculture and livestock production and the energy matrix to low-carbon models in the Legal Amazon(LAM)would result in a stronger economy,with better performance than that based on the continued expansion of carbon-intensive activities.The structu

49、ral changes of the transition to the NEA led by the Amazon would reach the entire Brazilian economy through the flows of investments,inputs and products exchanged between regions,leading the country towards the decarbonization of its entire economy.The NEA study pioneered the integration of multiple

50、 economic models developed by different research groups in the country to build a comprehensive analysis of the LAMs current economy and outline different scenarios for its future economy.Different econometric techniques were combined,with the development of Inter-regional Input-Output Matrix(IIOM-L

51、AM),General Equilibrium(GEM)and Dynamic Optimization(DOM)Models coupled to Combu island,Belm,Par.Photo:Nayara Jinknss/WRI Brasil.New Economy for the Brazilian Amazon11Source:Elaborated by the authors.Figure SE 1|The New Economy for the Brazilian Amazon reportTHE CURRENT LEGAL AMAZON ECONOMYIIOM-LAMT

52、he Inter-regional Input-Output Matrix of Legal Amazon(IIOM-LAM)with 27 regions allowed the analysis of regional economic relations,as well as with the rest of Brazil and foreign trade.Furthermore,it segmented the forest sector into logging(native wood and timber)and non-timber forest products(native

53、 seeds,fruits,leaves,resin etc).PERSPECTIVES FOR THE LEGAL AMAZON ECONOMY IN 2050Economic models(GEM,DOM and IOM-Alpha)The combination of General Equilibrium Models(GEM),Dynamic Optimization(ODM)and the Bioeconomy Input-Output Alpha Matrix(MIP-Alpha)enabled multisectoral analysis and scenario projec

54、tions for the economy of the Legal Amazon up to 2050,incorporating environmental assets and greenhouse gas emissions in an unprecedented way.THE NEW ECONOMY FOR THE BRAZILIAN AMAZONBioeconomy,agriculture and livestock,mining,infrastructure,and financingIn-depth discussions on:the main land use secto

55、rs(responsible for 94%of greenhouse gas emissions in the Legal Amazon),the changes required in the energy matrix(4%of emissions)necessary investments for the New Economy for the Aputable modules of land use changes,and Input-Output Alpha Accounts Matrix(IOM-Alpha)for the bioeconomy.The work enables

56、the analysis of the peculiarities of the LAM,the characteristics of its different regions,their trade flows,inputs,products,emissions and deforestation incorporated into them.The methodological choices for the coupling and interaction of analytical models have some limitations.Although the NEAs orig

57、inality offers a new perspective for the assessment and planning of the LAMs economy,there are limits and restrictions inherent to the models and interpretation of results,such as:(1)underestimation of potential positive effects generated by gains in human capital or technological progress on econom

58、ic performance,(2)undervaluation of the degradation and depletion of natural resources,(3)undervaluation of ecosystem services,(4)underestimation of the current bioeconomy and,therefore,of the future bioeconomy,particularly in the secondary and tertiary sectors,and(5)non-spatially explicit economic

59、results.NEAs analytical approach The NEA adopts the boundaries of the Brazilian Legal Amazon as its study area.The Amazon biome covers approximately 6.2 million square kilometers in eight countries in South America and in French territory,approximately 60%of which is in Brazil.The LAM,on the other h

60、and,is a legal delimitation that includes the entirety of the Brazilian Amazon Basin,encompassing the tropical forest and adjacent Cerrado areas.Instituted by Law N.1.806/1953,it amounts to 5 Mkm2 59%of the Brazilian territory.With about 28 million inhabitants(Ipeadata,2022)and an average Human Deve

61、lopment Index below 0.58(Firjan,2020),it fully covers the states of Acre,Amazonas,Amap,Par,Rondnia,Tocantins and Mato Grosso,in addition to Maranho in its portion west of the 44th meridian.The LAM is a mosaic of forest and savannah environments,with unique cultural and biological richness.With dozen

62、s of ecosystems managed by native peoples for more than 10 thousand years,the indigenous population of the LAM currently stands at nearly 600 thousand people from 198 ethnic groups and 49 language families(ISA,2023)(Museu Emlio Goeldi,2023).Forest management,agriculture and manufacturing techniques

63、bring together a profusion of traditional knowledge about medicinal drugs,cosmetics,food,fibers,infrastructure materials and energy,still unknown to science,but commonplace in the original economy or indigenous bioeconomy characterized by its capacity to support the environment and respect for intan

64、gible assets that are inseparable from production.wribrasil.org.br12The LAM houses the most extensive and biodiverse forest in the world,also encompassing a significant part of the Cerrado biodiversity hotspot.The largest tropical carbon stock in the world,the Amazon stores 120 GtC above ground(Gatt

65、i et al.,2021),equivalent to twelve times the annual emissions resulting from global economic activities(Valsecchi do Amaral et al.,2017).The LAM is responsible for recycling between 6.3 and 7.4 trillion cubic meters of water per year through the so-called flying rivers,which irrigate the Brazilian

66、center-south and is the regions most important service provided to the agribusiness,hydroelectric power generation,industry and sanitation sectors in the country and the Southern Cone(Baker et al.,2021).Over the past 30 years,the land use and energy sector has accounted for nearly 98%of all cumulati

67、ve AML emissions.They are,therefore,the focus of this report.Despite its relevance and role in the economy,the Amazon is approaching a point of no return due to its current trajectory of accelerated degradation.About 83 million hectares of primary forests have already been deforested in the Amazon(P

68、rodes,2022b).Considering the entire LAM,approximately 23%of the original cover has already been deforested,with 59 million hectares of primary forests and Cerrado areas deforested in the last 36 years(Mapbiomas,2022c).The continuity of this process is leading to a point of no return(Nobre et al.,201

69、6),with changes in the carbon cycles that cause the region to become a net carbon emitter,which happens when its capacity to absorb falls below its own emissions(Gatti et al.,2021).Main resultsThe Legal Amazons current economy The LAMs current economy runs a deficit in commercial transactions and a

70、surplus in emissions,with highly carbon-intensive transactions.Under the current economic arrangement,the region is a large depositary of land that supplies low added value inputs to the national and international economy,exporting primary products and purchasing qualified goods and services with hi

71、gher added value.The use of IIOM-LAM shows that,in 2015 the most recent data available the LAMs trade flows with the rest of Brazil resulted in exports of BRL 355 billion and imports of BRL 469 billion,with a BRL 114 billion deficit.On the other hand,emissions of 863 MtCO2 were generated in the LAM

72、to meet internal and external demands,with deforestation of around 1.5 million hectares.The complete IIOM-LAM is available at www.wribrasil.org.br/publicacoes/nova-economia-amazonia-nea.River transport in Combu island,in Belm,Par.Photo:Nayara Jinknss/WRI Brasil.New Economy for the Brazilian Amazon13

73、The development of an Input-Output Matrix for 27 regions of the Legal Amazon,defined by their technological trajectories,made it possible to analyze regional economic relations,with the rest of Brazil and foreign trade The Legal Amazon imports more than it exports,generating a COMMERCIAL DEFICIT.By

74、selling basic products and purchasing goods and services with higher added value,the Legal Amazon economy has a BRL 114 billion deficit in commercial transactions.More than 83%of deforestation in the LAM is stimulated directly orindirectly by existing demand from the rest of Brazil and abroad.And it

75、s exports are linked to MUCH HIGHER DEFORESTATION RATES1540 thousand ha259 thousand ha919 thousand ha580 thousand ha362 thousand ha186 thousand ha41 thousand ha807 thousand haRest of Brazil LAMSalesPurchasesDeforestation driven by productionPurchase of products that caused deforestationRest of Brazi

76、l Abroad LAMBRL 1.122 billionBRL 12.177 billionBRL 10.833 billionBRL 653 billionBRL 469 billionBRL 355 billionBRL 114 billionBRL 875 billionRest of Brazil LAMRest of Brazil Abroad LAM27regionsmillionBRLby external demandCENTRAL AMAZONASSOUTHWEST PARSOUTHEAST PARPARAGOMINASMARAJ/LOWER TOCANTINSBELM M

77、ETROPOLITAN AREASO LUIS METROPOLITAN AREAWEST MARANHOCHAPADAS IN MARANHOTOCANTINS CERRADO AREASNORTH MATO GROSSOARIQUIMES-GUAPORERIO BRANCO METROPOLITAN AREACENTER SOUTH MATO GROSSOCUIAB METROPOLITAN AREANORTH TOCANTINSAMAZONAS COUNTRYSIDEPORTO VELHO METROPOLITAN AREAMANAUS METROPOLITAN AREALOWER AM

78、AZONAS IN THE STATE OF PARNote 1:trade flows at basic prices in the year 2015,according to the IIOM-LAM(at 2020 prices).Note 2:Deforestation incorporated into commercial transactions per one thousand hectares.Note 3:Results of this study.Source:Elaborated by the authors.Figure SE2|The current Legal

79、Amazon economy revealed by IIOM-LAMwribrasil.org.br14More than 83%of deforestation in the LAM originates from demand arising from the rest of Brazil and from foreign trade.Deforestation is often assessed from the perspective of supply,that is,which productive sectors are promoting the replacement of

80、 forests by other land uses.The IIOM-LAM makes it possible to see the deforestation phenomenon from the perspective of demand as well,identifying the sources of incentives for the productive sectors to engage in deforestation.In the IIOM-LAM,the breakdown by origin of demand indicates that,while 46%

81、of the LAMs VA is stimulated by existing demand from outside the region,83%of deforestation is triggered by this external demand,as the regions exports are characterized by low VA and intensive deforestation.Only 12%of deforestation observed today in the LAM results from direct,indirect and induced

82、stimuli from the regions internal demand.In absolute terms,of total deforestation in the LAM in 2015,919 thousand hectares were induced by demand from the rest of Brazil,362 thousand hectares by international demand and 259 thousand hectares by demand from the LAM region.Note:Results of this study.S

83、ource:Elaborated by the authors.Figure SE 3|Analysis of deforestation and emissions by LAM sector and source of demand25%60%BRL 104 billion58 ha7472 ha0,01haBRL 103 billionBRL 39 billion15%LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION8%23%69%GRAINS-COTTON5%20%75%MININGSource of demand by sectorShare of Legal Amazon GDP in 2

84、015(in 2020 prices)Hectares of deforestation for every BRL 1 million added by the LAM economyAnnual emissions85%of demand is nationalMore than two thirds of demand are internationalWorldLAMRest of BrazilMtCO2MtCO2MtCO2581,2New Economy for the Brazilian Amazon15The Legal Amazons economy in 2050Using

85、General Equilibrium(GEM)and Dynamic Optimization(DOM)models,four different scenarios were outlined for the LAMs economy in 2050,combining two restrictions to the allocation of production factors and technological choices:control of total GHG emissions and control of deforestation.In the Reference(RE

86、F)scenario,no restrictions were applied.In the Technological Support(STE)scenario,deforestation was not restricted,but the condition was imposed that total emissions by 2050 could not exceed the estimated limit of 7.7 GtCO2 for compliance with the Paris Agreements 1.5C scenario,forcing the optimizat

87、ion of energy technologies in support of the decarbonization of the economy.The opposite was done in the Forest Support(SFL)scenario,with deforestation restricted to zero,but no limits imposed on any other emission sources in the economy,forcing the optimization of land use.Finally,in the scenario f

88、or the New Economy for the Amazon(NEA),the two restrictions were applied,combining optimization of land use and the energy matrix to achieve the goal of maintaining net accumulated emissions in Brazil at 7.7 GtCO2 between 2020 and 2050.Note 1:In order to meet the emission targets established in the

89、Paris Agreement and curb global warming to 1.5C,this study estimated that the balance of emissions in Brazil between 2020 and 2050(carbon budget)cannot exceed 7.7 GtCO2.Note 2:Results of this study.Source:Elaborated by the authorsFigure SE 4|Window to the future:economic scenariosThe study projects

90、scenarios for the economy of the Legal Amazon until 2050 combining restrictions on emissions and deforestationNo restrictions on deforestation or energy transition technologies,following the trend of the last 10 years.Mathematically unfeasible scenario.Without restrictions on deforestation,Brazil wi

91、ll not be able to meet its climate goals,as there is no technological transition capable of compensate the impact of Amazons degradation.Zeroing deforestation is insuficient.It is also necessary to combine the decarbonization of agriculture,livestock production and the energy matrix to reach the Par

92、is Agreement target of 1.5C.?No emission restrictionsBrazil reaches the Paris Agreenment 1.5C goal(emissions limited to 7,7 GTCO2 by 2050)Current trends in deforestationZero Deforestation?Emissions are restricted to comply with the Paris Agreement,but deforestation is not controlled,forcing the opti

93、mization of energy technologies to sustain the decarbonization of the economy.?Emissions are restricted according to the Paris Agreement,with zero deforestation,combining optimization of land use and energy transition to sustain the decarbonization of the economy.?No restriction on emissions,but wit

94、h zero deforestation,forcing the optimization of land use to support the decarbonization of the economy.?wribrasil.org.br16Without restrictions on deforestation,Brazil will not be able to meet its climate targets.Eliminating deforestation is also insufficient it is necessary to combine it with the d

95、ecarbonization of agriculture,livestock production and the energy matrix.The persistence of the carbon-intensive economy represented by the REF scenario would result in accumulated emissions of 43.6 GtCO2 by 2050.The STE scenario,on the other hand,failed to produce a viable mathematical solution,whi

96、ch illustrates the impossibility of meeting the Paris Agreement targets without restricting deforestation.No combination of technological and energy packages from other sectors of the economy would be able to neutralize the emissions resulting from changes in land use.The SFL scenario shows that,eve

97、n with zero deforestation in Amazon,the other regions and sectors would emit 21.1 GtCO2 by 2050,a figure almost three times higher than the target.In the NEA scenario,emissions were restricted to the target of 7.7 GtCO2,which would lead to the optimization of land use,increase in agricultural and li

98、vestock productivity through the intensive use of capital and labor,decreased pressure on native vegetation and restoration of 24 Mha in favor of carbon sequestration and the bioeconomy.In this scenario,LAM emissions were estimated at 1.4 GtCO2 by 2050.Qualified GDP and a larger number of inclusive

99、jobs,especially in bioeconomy,are major advantages of the transition to the New Economy for the Amazon.The national GDP in 2050 in the REF scenario was estimated at BRL 14.432 trillion(at 2020 values),while in the NEA scenario,this indicator is slightly higher,BRL 14.658 trillion.In the LAM,the GDP

100、in the REF scenario was estimated at BRL 1.301 trillion against BRL 1.340 trillion in the NEA scenario.Under the NEA scenario,around 312 thousand additional jobs would be created in the LAM alone,with 365 thousand additional jobs in the bioeconomy,and another 468 thousand additional jobs in restorat

101、ion,replacing jobs in carbon-intensive chains.In these chains,more than 91%of current positions are held by minority groups such as black and indigenous people.In the NEA scenario,the jobs held by these groups fill about 18.7 million positions(81%of the total),with 345 thousand additional jobs compa

102、red to the REF.By the end of 2050,the NEAs GDP would produce less than one fifth of the total emissions in the REF scenario and an additional 81 Mha of native vegetation,with a 19%larger forest carbon stock,generating savings that contribute to climate negotiations,attract financing and generate ess

103、ential ecosystem services for production.The investments required to finance the transition to the NEA amount to BRL 2.56 trillion by 2050(additional to the REF scenario).Investments in LAM were estimated at BRL 3.36 trillion in the REF scenario(1.0%per year of national GDP)and BRL 5.92 trillion in

104、the NEA scenario (1.8%per year of national GDP)by 2050.Of the additional BRL 2.56 trillion in the NEA scenario,BRL 659 billion would be applied to strategic land use,through technical changes to intensify production of the agricultural,livestock,bioeconomy and restoration sectors;BRL 410 billion to

105、changes in the energy matrix and another BRL 1.49 trillion to induced infrastructure.Investments would not be restricted to the LAM,given the intricate input-output relationship between the region and the rest of the country,implying harmonization of standards,products and processes.The Amazon would

106、 be the great catalyst for the decarbonization of the Brazilian economy.Oil production from andiroba seeds in the riverside community of Bauana,in Carauari,Amazonas.Photo:Ricardo Oliveira.New Economy for the Brazilian Amazon17*In the NEA scenario,24 Mha are of forests are restored,and in the Referen

107、ce scenario the estimate restoration is 2 Mha,so the total diference between the scenarios is 22 Mha.Note:Results of this study.Source:Elaborated by the authors.wribrasil.org.br18*In the NEA scenario,24 Mha are of forests are restored,and in the Reference scenario the estimate restoration is 2 Mha,s

108、o the total diference between the scenarios is 22 Mha.Note:Results of this study.Source:Elaborated by the authors.New Economy for the Brazilian Amazon19BioeconomyThe bioeconomy proposed by the NEA is one that evolves with the forest standing and the rivers flowing.The Amazon bioeconomy must be able

109、to adjust to the biomes biocapacity,building upon economic activities that do not disrupt the complex ecological balances that guarantee the health of the forest and rivers on which the population depends,combining tradition and innovation,as a bioecological bioeconomy(Costa and Fernandes,2016)(Cost

110、a et al.,2022).This bioeconomy already exists,but it is partially invisible in national accounts due to the high level of informality and the inadequacy of official methods for capturing indicators.The bioeconomy revealed by the new indicators is thriving in the LAM.Even with limitations inherent to

111、 the collection of primary data and traceability of informal activities,the bioeconomy already generates an annual Gross Value of Production(GVP)of BRL 15 billion in the LAM.The application of the IOM-Alpha method reveals that the bioeconomy is a vector of strong dynamism in the proximity economy,wi

112、th great capacity to generate local production and employment.Assessments based on the IOM-Alpha show that the regions bioeconomy,encompassing only 13 primary products(for which there are reliable data),currently generates BRL 9.5 billion in VA,a GDP of approximately BRL 12.1 billion and a wage bill

113、 of BRL 1.89 billion across the chain(primary,secondary and tertiary sectors).Par emerges as the leader of the bioeconomy,accounting for 73%of the LAMs wage bill.The LAMs IOM-Alpha is available at at www.wribrasil.org.br/publicacoes/nova-economia-amazonia-nea.In the scenario of transition to the NEA

114、,the bioeconomy emerges as an important GDP component.Despite data and projection limitations this study was limited to only 13 primary products and their derivatives from the secondary and tertiary sectors,in the NEA scenario,the bioeconomys GDP in the LAM will reach BRL 38.5 billion in 2050,or 2.8

115、%of the regional GDP,employing 947 thousand people,around 4%of the total number of jobs in the entire region.In the REF scenario,the GDP of the bioeconomy would be close to BRL 22.3 billion,generating around 592 thousand jobs.Figure SE 6|The bioeconomy is larger than current instruments can measurew

116、ribrasil.org.br2021Nova Economia da AmazniaThe bioeconomy will likely be much larger than indicated above.Research shows that the indigenous peoples of the Amazon have an extremely diverse diet,with up to 270 items used daily in cooking,compared to less than 30 items used by non-indigenous groups in

117、 the same region(Mesquita,Barreto,2015;Skeltis,2019).On a daily basis,they use up to 85 species of trees and more than two hundred herbs for food or medicine supplementation(Levis et al.,2018),and ingest about 30 species of insects the food of the future as a source of vitamins and iron(Roche et al.

118、,2008).Because each ethnic group has its own food preferences and taboos,the resources available in the forest are spatially heterogeneous and as numerous as biodiversity(Freitas,Moreira,Freitas,2005),which reinforces the hypothesis that the Amazon Forest itself,in good measure,is the result of pers

119、istent and millenary autochthonous forest management(Levis et al.,2017).The bioeconomy scaling strategy that generates the best social,environmental and economic results for the NEA is based on the replication and expansion of productive arrangements already existing in the territory:inclusive,diver

120、se and based on local ability and intelligence.The bioeconomy growth should take place through the multiplication of production arrangements that are typical or under development in the territory,which are labor intensive,based on forest products or the restoration of native vegetation,and which com

121、bine local solutions with the adaptation of efficient technological innovations.The transformation of primary products and their insertion in markets depend more on the ability to add local value and their capillarity in the territory than on a technological revolution.The bioeconomy is also vital f

122、or the generation of ecosystem services for which there are no substitutes that are economically viable or sufficiently available to meet productive demands,especially from the agricultural and livestock production sector.The indigenous economy is based on community elements and benefit sharing,whic

123、h are essential to the bioeconomy.The productive processes of the indigenous economy are generally structured around individual initiatives,organization into associations,cooperatives,collectives and groups of producers or family initiatives often led by women.They combine food cultivars,medicinal h

124、erbs,dyes and textile products,as well as handicrafts and other cultural manifestations.Benefit sharing is a hallmark of the indigenous economy,following concepts of justice that encompass not only distribution based on work or knowledge of productive processes,but also recognition of different soci

125、al roles and solidarity with excluded people.Decisions are always based on the gathering of collective resources and dialogue with ancestral heritage.Women breaking native cacao in the Madeira river region,in Novo Aripuan,Amazonas.Photo:Ricardo Oliveira.wribrasil.org.br22Note:Results of this study.S

126、ource:Elaborated by the authors.Figure SE 7|Land use and land cover classes in the base year 2020,in the Reference and NEA scenarios in 2050Agriculture and livestock productionThe agriculture and livestock production sector accounts for a large portion of the LAMs economy and must become free of def

127、orestation and forest degradation to ensure its relevance by 2050.In the NEA scenario,higher land productivity,less susceptibility to water stress,and less soil fertility loss would boost agricultural and livestock production,allowing the sector to grow by substituting land for capital and labor.A p

128、roductive reorganization would result in a more productive,resilient,deforestation-free and low-carbon agricultural and livestock production sector.With a more efficient land use and no deforestation and degradation,water loss from runoff would recede by 13%,protecting these activities from water st

129、ress,and nitrogen and phosphorus losses would decrease by 16%and 18%,respectively,reducing costs with fertilizers and generating savings in the range of BRL 4.6-8.7 billion over 30 years.-13,8%Current(2020)0Native vegetation100200300400500(Mha)REF(2050)NEA(2050)410204247692835343422 73425Agriculture

130、Degraded pasturesNon-degraded pastures+5,8%+10%+25,5%+40%+88%+64,2%-89,5%The three biggest challenges for agriculture and livestock production in the transition to the NEA are:(1)the strategic use of land;(2)the productive intensification and mainstreaming of low carbon emission practices,and(3)the

131、fight against rural inequality.The strategic use of land reflects a focus on recovering degraded pastures,both for livestock production and agriculture and forest restoration activities,in addition to increasing the areas with integrated and agroforestry systems.The productive intensification and ma

132、instreaming of low carbon emission practices are guidelines for the sectors adaptation to climate change,specifically outlined by the countrys low carbon emission plan for the sector(“Plano ABC+”),while the fight against rural inequality must be tackled mainly through family farmers unobstructed and

133、 privileged access to credit,risk mitigation instruments,customized technical and managerial assistance,including for bioeconomy products,and differentiated,institutional markets with denomination of origin.New Economy for the Brazilian Amazon23Investments to finance the transition of agricultural a

134、nd livestock production would exceed those estimated for the REF scenario by about BRL 442 billion.The mainstreaming of low carbon emission practices and the intensification of agriculture and livestock activities should occur exclusively in consolidated degraded and anthropized areas,with a focus o

135、n the adoption of bio-inputs and integrated production systems(integrated crop-livestock-forestry and agroforestry systems,especially with native species).Agricultural and livestock production activities in the NEA scenario would maintain their share in the LAMs GDP compared to the base year 2020,re

136、ceiving substantially higher investments to promote the transition,but simultaneously generating savings in fertilization replacement costs resulting from the erosion of ecosystem services observed in the REF scenario.Investments in the agriculture chains in the NEA scenario are 25%above the figures

137、 in the REF scenario,while investments in livestock production would be 84%higher in the NEA,reflecting the effort to generate productivity gains that offset the significant loss of pasture area.MiningMineral assets are indispensable for the global energy transition and for building a low-carbon eco

138、nomy infrastructure.However,mining costs and benefits must be internalized and better distributed.Industrial mining in the LAM already generates approximately BRL 39 billion in GVP and 113 thousand jobs.The region has reserves of global significance that are already measured,such as 18%of tantalum,1

139、1%of niobium,9%of manganese and tin,in addition to other significant reserves,such as 8%of aluminum ore(metallurgical bauxite)and 4%of iron ore.The industry has advanced in precautionary practices and has been making progress in the adoption of environmental,social and corporate governance(ESG)crite

140、ria.However,current social and environmental impacts,such as exposure of the population to substances harmful to health,risks of disasters with tailings,territorial disorder following the end of the mining extraction cycle,pollution of groundwater and watercourses are negative externalities that nee

141、d to be addressed.The exploitation of essential minerals for the transition must go beyond ESG practices and prioritize the well-being and safety of local populations and their natural resources,essential for their ways of life,translated into direct investments to promote environmental quality,the

142、bioeconomy and regenerative productive systems that are compatible with local aspirations.InfrastructureThe main energy solution for the NEA scenario is the implementation of photovoltaic systems,whether in floating systems on existing hydroelectric dams or on degraded pastures close to transmission

143、 structures,optimizing the installed capacity of the National Interconnected System(SIN).Together,these systems would generate 55%of the 131 TWh that will be demanded by the LAM in 2050 under the NEA scenario.Hydroelectric power plants,currently responsible for 85%of the installed capacity in the LA

144、M,do not expand in the NEA scenario.Belo Monte would have been the last major hydroelectric power project in the region.The burning of agricultural,urban and bioeconomy waste,such as aa pods,would be able to generate another 14TWh.This ideal approach to isolated systems would replace,in 2050 alone,t

145、he equivalent of 359 million liters of diesel,reducing emissions by almost 1.5 MtCO2 and boosting the local economy.As for the transportation sector,the required energy in the NEA scenario would reach 133 TWh in 2050,while in the REF scenario it would stand at 188 TWh.In the NEA,the energy demands o

146、f passenger and cargo transportation by road,hybrid waterway and air fluvial systems would be met as follows:54%by second and third generation biofuels,40%by renewable electric energy and only 6%by fossil fuels.Differently,in the REF scenario,82%would come from fossil sources,16%from biofuels and on

147、ly 2%from electricity.Additionally,no new high-speed roads would be built,but replaced by hybrid waterway transportation systems.While emissions in 2050 would amount to 38 MtCO2 in the REF,in the NEA scenario they would only reach 17 MtCO2.wribrasil.org.br24FinancingA significant expansion in the su

148、pply of financing will be necessary to reach the investment volumes required to decarbonize the global economy,and in Brazil this will be no different.Studies on the dimensioning of investments required to decarbonize the global economy have converged to rates close to 2%of GDP per year(Stern,2015),

149、while the values effectively applied have been around 0.1%in the most optimistic estimates(Guo,Kubli and Saner,2021).Filling the gap in order to reach levels close to 2%of GDP requires a disruption in trends and a shift in the supply curve,given the steep 590%increase that needs to take place by 203

150、0 to reach the required level(Naran et al.,2022).There are no references on the gap between investment and financing needs for Brazil.Investments of BRL 2.56 trillion will be needed to finance the NEA transition.Brazil needs to invest around 4.5%of GDP per year over the next 25 years to guarantee a

151、stock of infrastructure and minimize risks of economic strangulation(Frischtak,Mouro,2017).In the present study,investment needs corresponding to 1.8%of GDP were estimated to finance the transition to the NEA.Although those investments would not necessarily be additional to the formation of a stock

152、of infrastructure which could be expanded under a decarbonized energy and agricultural/livestock production matrix,the highly competitive environment to access financial resources adds to the challenge.Heavy traffic in Av.Torquato Tapajs in Manaus,Amazonas.Photo:Bruno Kelly/WRI Brasil.New Economy fo

153、r the Brazilian Amazon25On the other hand,the costs of not promoting the transition to the NEA could be much higher.In the GEM models used in this study,the reference scenario for the LAMs economic growth does not include opportunity costs of the technologies employed in the NEA scenario,nor do-noth

154、ing costs,which reduce GDP in the reference scenario due to chronic and acute effects of climate change.Worldwide,projections indicate that the cost of Table SE 1|Investments accumulated over 30 years,from 2020 to 2050(BRL billion)Note:Results of this study.Source:Elaborated by the authors.not curbi

155、ng warming below 2C should range between 4%and 18%of global GDP by 2048(Guo,Kubli and Saner,2021).If the do-nothing penalties suggested for Brazils GDP by the Swiss Re Institute are applied,the additional investments of BRL 2.56 trillion for the transition would,in the most conservative economic est

156、imates,be less than half of the costs of not promoting the transition.REFNEASTRATEGIC LAND USE 992,71.651,4Agriculture613,0765,0Livestock Production345,0635,0Bioeconomy13,040,2Restoration21,7211,2ENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE2.366,64.266,4Electricity 942,81.337,4National Interconnected SystemWing Genera

157、tion195,7199,1Solar Generation73,875,1Biomass77,1359,9Other Sources433,2432,9Local Systems Solar Generation163,1268,9Waste0,01,5Biofuels17,233,0Passenger Road Transport4,011,7Cargo Road Transport6,915,4Hybrid Water Transport4,91,7Air-fluvial Transport1,34,1Induced Infrastructure1.406,62.896,0TOTAL 3

158、.359,35.917,8wribrasil.org.br26RecommendationsThe public sector must assert its allocative and distributive roles to signal the directions to be taken by the economy going forward.Although renewable energies,such as solar,are already competitive,they are still penalized and distorted by the maintena

159、nce of subsidies to fossil fuels,whose extinction should be the main guideline for public sector actions.Brazilian subsidies to fossil fuels over the past decade amounted to almost USD 222 billion(Inesc,2022),corresponding to 60%of the investments needed to change the energy matrix under the NEA sce

160、nario.In agriculture and livestock production,if the total volume of funds managed by Plano Safra(the governments agriculture and livestock production financing program)were earmarked to investment projects aligned with Plano ABC+,the annual average volumes of rural credit available for investment i

161、n the LAM would be enough to cover(if replicated over the 30-year period)almost 40%of the investment needs under the NEA scenario.The private sector needs to increase its capacity for innovation and become a driver of the new economy.Between 2013 and 2020,approximately BRL 61 billion in green bonds

162、were issued in Brazil,of which 50%financed energy projects,while 25%went to land use projects,10%to transportation projects,4%to construction projects,4%to projects involving water resources,4%to projects involving waste and 3%to the industrial sector(CBI,2021).Many corporations have been investing

163、in decarbonization,largely following criteria relating to actions with positive impacts on the ESG spheres,which are difficult to account for.The volume of associated shares traded on the stock exchange reached around BRL 2 billion.It is true that public sector signaling is essential to ensure safet

164、y,but there is already enough information for the private sector to take the lead in the race for innovation and adaptation of the economy to the needs of decarbonization.Employ instruments and methods that enable the adequate assessment of the LAMs social and economic development.Adoption of Input-

165、Output Matrices capable of segmenting activities typical of the Amazonian economy and its different regions offer a technically robust and replicable alternative.Accounting techniques for generally undersized monetary flows,as revealed by the IOM-Alpha for the bioeconomy chain,are essential to break

166、 with the undersizing bias connected with these activities,which prevent their relevance from being recognized and,therefore,adopted as part of the solution through the circular and proximity economy.“Beira”market in downtown Manaus,Amazonas.Photo:Bruno Kelly/WRI Brasil.New Economy for the Brazilian

167、 Amazon27Establish clear milestones in the conceptualization of bioeconomy plans and programs that are compatible with products,processes and productive structures that protect the standing forest,biodiversity and knowledge of indigenous peoples and traditional populations.The bioeconomy is not to b

168、e confused with low-carbon agriculture and livestock production,although they are complementary in the transition to the NEA.The entire structuring of systems for promotion,innovation,research and development of products and processes must be based on the concept of standing forests and flowing rive

169、rs as bioeconomy pillars,safeguarding and promoting the fair distribution of benefits to people and communities that hold traditional knowledge.Sustainable economy should be prioritized in indigenous territories with their peoples as protagonists,with actions that promote the exchange of knowledge,t

170、echnical and financial support,valuing traditional knowledge and involving political representations of indigenous peoples.Indigenous professionals must lead the planning and operation of production chains,from production to commercialization.Eliminating subsidies or promoting cross-subsidies from f

171、ossil fuels to energy from renewable sources with an emphasis on solar generation and second-generation biofuels is essential to the decarbonization of the economy.As shown in this study,the volume of subsidies to fossil fuels in Brazil,in the last decade alone,amounted to a value equivalent to half

172、 of what is needed to structure the energy matrix under the NEA scenario.Differentiated taxation in favor of electric vehicles,public transport concession policies aimed at fleet electrification,regulation that leads to the progressive growth of the volumetric content of biodiesel produced in defore

173、station-free areas that are compliant with the Soy Moratorium and reduction of docking fees for vessels with batteries and biofuels are other points to be addressed by fiscal policies in order to promote the decarbonization of transportation in the region.Redirect the availability of rural credit,gr

174、adually transforming the Plano Safra into a Low Carbon Emission Agricultural Plan(ABC).Currently,only 3%of all credit for investment in agriculture and livestock production in the LAM coming from Plano Safra is earmarked to low carbon emission practices.As demonstrated in this study,if the current v

175、olume of loans granted in the LAM were annually applied only to low-carbon agriculture and livestock production,it would be enough to finance 40%of the investments necessary for the transition of this sector to the NEA.We endorse the recommendations of the Brazilian Coalition on Climate,Forests and

176、Agriculture(2022),in particular its recommendation to increase funds that authorize the payment of interest rate equalization on rural financing granted under the Plano Safra for low-carbon agriculture and livestock activities,in addition to including private investment funds that finance credit lin

177、es aligned with the ABC+and Pronaf ABC+programs.Re-establish the role of the public sector in territorial management and governance.Reestablish the Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Amazon and support the updating of State Plans for the Prevention and Control of Deforestati

178、on;resume the allocation of wribrasil.org.br28public forests for conservation,Indigenous Lands and sustainable forest management;reestablish the territorial security of protected areas(Indigenous Lands and Conservation Units)and support the forest-based economy in these areas;implement the National

179、Plan for the Recovery of Native Vegetation(Planaveg)and support state programs for the restoration of landscapes and native vegetation;and structure the jurisdictional Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation(REDD+)systems of the Amazon states.Restore governance and guarantee the in

180、vestments of the Amazon Fund.The Amazon Fund,in addition to providing support for command-and-control actions,indigenous communities and the implementation and analysis of the Rural Environmental Registry(CAR),must play a vital role in the development of the bioeconomy.Fund resources can both initia

181、te the structuring of new chains and generate scale gains for existing chains and businesses.Among the possible actions are priority investments in enterprise management,technical and management assistance,access to markets,working capital,logistics,technology and provision of specialized services.C

182、reate a methodological framework and taxonomies for the financial and capital markets on the requirements for green investments in the Amazon that promote the reduction of emissions and the preservation of biodiversity.A legal framework for the carbon market in Brazil is thus necessary,based on a br

183、oad discussion with society about the earmarking of subsidies,leading to their progressive shift from carbon-intensive activities to the development of new technologies and the implementation of low emission productive practices throughout the economy.There are many potential sources of funds,both d

184、omestic and international.These sources must be accessed and give rise to a new mainstream financing model.Kaapor people of the Indigenous Land Alto Turiacu,in northern Maranho,install cameras for autonomous monitoring of their territory in areas threatened by illegal loggers.Photo:Lunae Parracho/Gr

185、eenpeace.New Economy for the Brazilian Amazon29The New Economy for the Brazilian Amazon(NEA-BR)is an initiative led by WRI Brasil and The New Climate Economy,in partnership with more than 75 researchers from various Brazilian regions,and organizations,including the Federal University of Par(UFPA),Un

186、iversity of So Paulo(USP),Federal University of Rio de Janeiro(UFRJ),Federal University of Minas Gerais(UFMG),Institute for Environmental Research in the Amazon(IPAM),Instituto de Conservao e Desenvolvimento Sustentvel do Amazonas(IDESAM),Center for Climate Crime Analysis(CCCA),Concertation for the

187、Amazon and Associao Contas Abertas.The initiative has the financial support of Instituto Clima e Sociedade(iCS),the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs,the Federal Ministry for the Environment,Nature Conservation,Nuclear Safety and Consumer Protection of Germany,Instituto Arapya,Good Energies Foundat

188、ion,and the Climate and Land Use Alliance(CLUA).About the New Economy for the Brazilian AmazonCocoa produced on Combu Island,Belm,Par.Photo:Dado Photos/Shutterstock.wribrasil.org.br30WRI Brasil is a research institute that transforms great ideas into actions to promote environmental protection,econo

189、mic opportunity and human well-being.It works in the development of studies and implementation of sustainable solutions in climate,forests and cities.It combines technical excellence with political articulation and works in partnership with governments,companies,academia and civil society.WRI Brasil

190、 is part of the World Resources Institute(WRI),a global research institution operating in more than 60 countries.WRI relies on the expertise of approximately 1,400 professionals in offices in Brazil,China,the United States,Europe,Mexico,India,Indonesia and Africa.The Global Commission on Economics a

191、nd Climate and its flagship project The New Climate Economy were created to help governments,businesses and society make more informed decisions about how to achieve prosperity and economic development while addressing climate change.About WRI BrasilAbout The New Climate EconomyNew Economy for the Brazilian Amazon31Copyright 2023 World Resources Institute.This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.To view a copy of the license,visit http:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/