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1、DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAAMACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR SPAIN 2022-2025NGEL GAVILNDirector General Economics,Statistics and ResearchMadrid20 December 2022DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA1.Global environment2.Spanish econom

2、y recent developments3.Macroeconomic projections 2022-2025 Projections update main drivers Growth forecasts Inflation forecasts Public finances Balance of risks and main sources of uncertaintyCONTENTS2DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAACONTENT31.Global environment2.S

3、panish economy recent developments3.Macroeconomic projections 2022-2025 Projections update main drivers Growth forecasts Inflation forecasts Public finances Balance of risks and main sources of uncertaintyDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAAIn general,growth projectio

4、ns are being revised up for 2022 and down for 2023(*)while inflation projections are being revised up(*)4MAIN MESSAGESActivityClear signs of slowdown in global economic activity(e.g.PMIs and international trade).although activity is still quite resilient(even with upside surprises)Owing,among other

5、factors,to the war in Ukraine,high inflationrates and monetary policy tighteningPartly due to the strong labour market momentum and the fiscalpolicy measures introducedThe main central banks worldwide expect monetary policy tightening to continue PricesCommodity prices are slowing.Partly owing to th

6、e slowdown in economic activity,the easing ofthe supply bottlenecks and a relatively warm autumn.and there are incipient signs of inflation moderating in some economies,although underlying inflation rates are still very highMoreover,the rate of growth of food prices has generallycontinued to gather

7、pace in recent monthsLatest Eurosystem projectionsDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAACONTENTS51.Global environment2.Spanish economy recent developments3.Macroeconomic projections 2022-2025 Projections update main drivers Growth forecasts Inflation forecasts Public fi

8、nances Balance of risks and main sources of uncertaintyDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA6PRICESHeadline inflation in Spain has fallen significantly(from 10.7%in July to 6.7%in November).mainly owing to the energy componentThe inflation differential with the euro ar

9、ea stood at an all-time low in NovemberUnderlying inflation has also fallen slightly,while the rate of growth of food prices has gathered pacePartly thanks to wage moderation,services inflation has been lower in the more labour-intensive sectorsGovernment measures continue to play a part in the decl

10、ine in the headline inflation rateDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA7ACTIVITYGDP slowed significantly in Q3,in line with the Banco de Espaas October projections(+0.2%vs.+0.1%)Employment has been quite steady in Q4.According to the Banco de Espaa Business Activity Su

11、rvey(EBAE),in aggregate terms,business turnover has been steady in Q4Confidence indicators have remained very low or have continued to head downOther indicators provide mixed signals,generally pointing to a certain level of weakness in economic activityThe tighter financial conditions have continued

12、 to be passed through to households and firmsEconomic momentum in Q4 has been similar to that observed in Q3(*).as has the temporary employment ratio,following the sharp declines earlier in the year Effects on consumption?DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAACONTENTS81

13、.Contexto global2.Evolucin reciente de la economa espaola3.Macroeconomic projections 2022-2025 Projections update main drivers Growth forecasts Inflation forecasts Public finances Balance of risks and main sources of uncertaintyDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA9PRO

14、JECTIONS UPDATE MAIN DRIVERSData that have become available since the cut-off date for the October projection exercise Changes in the assumptions about certain key variables over the projection horizonNew assumptions about the time frame of the measures rolled out by the authorities to mitigate risi

15、ng energy prices In terms of activity,the new data point to an increase in the rate of growthof GDP in 2022 and have a slightly positive carry-over effect on the growthrate in 2023 In terms of prices,the steep drop in the inflation rate in recent monthsprovides a more favourable starting point Energ

16、y prices:considerably lower wholesale gas and electricity prices,and slightly higher oil prices External demand:lower due to deterioration in the global economicoutlook Euro exchange rate:slightly higher Interest rates:slightly lower than expected in October Fiscal policy:incorporation of the Draft

17、Budget for 2023 and various otherfiscal policy measures Although there is as yet no official decision,the baseline scenario of thenew projection exercise assumes that most of the current measures willremain in force throughout 2023DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA1

18、0SUMMARY OF THE PROJECTIONSSources:Banco de Espaa and INE.(a)Projections cut-off date:30 November 2022.More details GDP growth is revised upwards slightly in 2022(due to activity performing better than projected in 2022 H2),but downwards slightly in 2023(mainlydue to poorer external demand,which off

19、sets the positive carry-over effect of the 2022 H2 data and the boost from the extension to 2023 of some of themeasures to mitigate rising prices)and in 2024(mainly due to application of the aforementioned measures ending)The average inflation rate is revised downwards in 2022(due to a greater-than-

20、expected decline in inflation in recent months)and in 2023(on accountof new assumptions and the incorporation of the extension throughout 2023 of some of the measures currently in force to mitigate rising prices),but is revisedupwards in 2024(mainly due to application of the aforementioned measures

21、ending)2020202120222023202420252022202320242025GDP-11.35.54.61.32.72.10.1-0.1-0.2-Harmonised index of consumer prices(HICP)-0.33.08.44.93.61.8-0.3-0.71.7-HICP excluding energy and food0.50.63.83.42.21.8-0.1-0.10.1-Unemployment rate(%of labour force).Annual average15.514.812.812.912.212.00.00.0-0.2-G

22、eneral government net lending(+)/net borrowing(-)(%of GDP)-10.1-6.9-4.2-4.1-3.7-4.50.1-0.10.6-General government debt(%of GDP)120.4118.3113.1110.6108.8109.8-0.2-0.1-1.1-DECEMBER 2022 PROJECTIONS(a)DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE OCTOBER PROJECTIONSAnnual rate of change(%),unless otherwise indicatedD

23、IRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA75808590951001052019Q42020Q42021Q42022Q42023Q42024Q42025Q4DECEMBER 2022OCTOBER 20222019 Q4=100REAL GDP(Chained volume index)-15-10-505102019202020212022202320242025NET EXPORTS OF SERVICESNET EXPORTS OF GOODSGROSS CAPITAL FORMATIONGOV

24、ERNMENT CONSUMPTIONPRIVATE CONSUMPTIONGDP%and ppGDP GROWTH AND CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE MAIN COMPONENTS 11GROWTH FORECASTSSUMMARYSources:INE and Banco de Espaa.Spanish economic activity is expected to remain considerably weak over the coming months(The outlook for early 2023 is one of continuing highinf

25、lationary pressures,a further tightening of financial conditions,persistent relatively low confidence levels and lacklustre global economic activity)Activity will regain increasing momentum from spring 2023,boosted by a combination of factors(These include the gradual easing of energymarket tensions

26、 and inflationary pressures,the ongoing roll-out of NGEU funds and the gradual resolution of the global supply chain disruptions)DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA12GROWTH FORECASTSCONSUMPTIONCompared with other demand headings,the return of household consumption to

27、 its pre-pandemic level is lagging particularly behind:it is stillmore than 5 pp below its 2019 Q4 levelAgainst a backdrop marked by extraordinary uncertainty and in which household confidence has deteriorated significantly,consumption willlikely take longer than GDP to return to its pre-pandemic le

28、vel.despite the saving rate standing below its historical average throughout the projection horizonIn recent months,use of the savings households built up at the height of the pandemic has been relatively limited and has notsignificantly boosted aggregate spending levelsIn the coming months,use of t

29、he savings built up during the health crisis(which are concentrated in higher income households)isnot expected to be particularly important in terms of driving aggregate consumptionDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAAIn line with the latest information available,this

30、projection exercise maintains,throughout the period 2022-2025,NGEU-funded governmentspending trajectories that are very similar to those considered in the October projection exercise13GROWTH FORECASTSNGEU PROGRAMMESources:Banco de Espaa and IGAE.0,00,20,40,60,81,01,21,41,620212022202320242025RRFREAC

31、T-EUNGEU-FUNDED GOVERNMENT SPENDING%of GDP1.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.01.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA-20246810122020 Q12021 Q12022 Q12023 Q12024 Q12025 Q1HEADLINE INFLATION,DECEMBER 2022(a)UNDERLYING INFLATION,DECEMBER 2022(b)HEADLINE IN

32、FLATION,OCTOBER 2022(a)UNDERLYING INFLATION,OCTOBER 2022(b)HEADLINE AND UNDERLYING INFLATION%-20246810202020212022202320242025HICP-ENERGYHICP EXCL.ENERGY AND FOODHICP-FOODHEADLINE HICP%and ppCONTRIBUTIONS TO HICP GROWTH BY COMPONENT14INFLATION FORECASTSSUMMARYSources:INE and Banco de Espaa.(a)Measur

33、ed by the harmonised index of consumer prices(HICP).(b)Measured by the HICP excluding energy and food.Headline inflation is forecast to gradually ease from its current level(The rates in 2023/2024 will be particularly affected by the support measuresdeployed by the authorities)The reduction in infla

34、tion will initially be explained by the energy component(Due,partly,to negative base effects in the short term and on account ofthe lower prices signalled by energy commodity futures markets)The pace of food price growth will moderate and the rate of underlying inflation will drop somewhat later(The

35、 progressive disappearance of thebottlenecks,the gradual impact of the change in monetary policy stance and lower commodity prices,among other factors,will contribute to this)DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA15INFLATION FORECASTSFACTORS SUGGESTING A RELATIVE PERSIS

36、TENCE OF INFLATIONARY PRESSURESInflationary pressures are very widespread in the basket of consumer goods and servicesDespite the decline in the year-on-year rate of inflation in recent months,month-on-month price dynamics are still exhibiting very strong inflationary momentumAccording to the Banco

37、de Espaa Business Activity Survey(EBAE),while firms have recently observed a slight easing of inflationary pressures,such pressures have barely weakened one year aheadProducer prices suggest that processed food inflation may still remain high over the coming monthsThe pass-through of the recent cost

38、 increases to all consumer goods and services prices is not yet fully completeDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAAGovernment receipts continue to display strong momentum and suggest that the budget deficit in 2022 as a whole will be smaller thanenvisaged in the Budget

39、ary Plan16PUBLIC FINANCESGENERAL GOVERNMENT BALANCE IN 2022Sources:Banco de Espaa and IGAE.(a)The IGAE only provides information on the overall general government sector quarterly.-12-10-8-6-4-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22GENERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BALANCE(a)EXCL.LOCAL GOVERNMENT

40、TOTAL2023 BUDGETARY PLAN%of GDPDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA23%77%TARGETED MEASURESNON-TARGETED MEASURESCHARACTERISATION OF THE MEASURES APPROVED IN 2022 TO MITIGATE THE EFFECT OF INFLATION17PUBLIC FINANCESNATURE OF THE MEASURES IMPLEMENTED TO MITIGATE THE INCR

41、EASE IN PRICESSource:Banco de Espaa.DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA1,52,02,53,03,54,0200520092013201720212025JUNE 2022DECEMBER 2022INTEREST EXPENDITURE%of GDP18PUBLIC FINANCESDEBT INTEREST EXPENDITURESources:Banco de Espaa and IGAE.DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,S

42、TATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA19BALANCE OF RISKS AND MAIN SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTYBalance of risks In the short term,the risks to the growth projections are mainly tilted to the downside,while for the inflation projections upside riskspredominate Towards the end of the projection horizon the ri

43、sks are broadly balancedMain sources of uncertaintyWar in Ukraine Energy markets(prices,supply and winter temperatures)Global economic growth(United States,China,Germany,etc.)Financial vulnerability of households and firmsNGEU(roll-out and structural impact)Financial markets(disruptive episodes?)Mac

44、roeconomic impact of monetary policy tighteningLabour marketCoordination of monetary and fiscal policiesConsumption/saving rateDuration of the measures to mitigate higher energy pricesSecond-round effects on inflationDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAATHANK YOU FOR Y

45、OUR ATTENTIONDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA3035404550556065JF M A M JJ A S O NJF M A M JJ A S O NJF M A M JJ A S O NUNITED STATESEURO AREACHINA COMPOSITE SERVICES MANUFACTURINGPMI DEVELOPMENTS IN 2022Index21IN RECENT MONTHS CONFIDENCE INDICATORS HAVE SHOWN A CLE

46、AR DETERIORATION,WITH MANYSTANDING IN CONTRACTIONARY TERRITORYSource:S&P Global.Latest observation:November 2022.DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA-300-200-1000100200300Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22EURO AREAUNITED STATESCHINACITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEXE

47、conomic data vs analysts expectations22BROADLY SPEAKING,THE MOST RECENT DATA HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST THANEXPECTEDSource:Citigroup.DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA020.00040.00060.00080.000100.000120.000JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecNATURAL GAS INVENTOR

48、IES IN EUROPERANGE,2017-202020212022EC TARGETMillions of cubic metres050100150200250300350400020406080100120140202220232024LATEST FUTURES(12/12)FUTURES,CUT-OFF LAST QR(30/09)BRENTNATURAL GAS(RIGHT-HAND SCALE)OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRICE AND FUTURES$/barrel/MWh0100200300400500600Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21

49、Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22 SPAIN(EXCL.GAS PRICE CAP)ITALY GERMANY FRANCEELECTRICITY PRICE.GENERATION MARKET/MWh23IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS,COMMODITY PRICES AND ENERGY COMMODITY PRICES IN PARTICULAR HAVE DECLINED NOTABLYSources:Refinitiv,International Energy Agency,Bloomberg and ENTSOG.DIRECTORATE GENERAL

50、 ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA024681012JulOctJulOctJulNovJulOctJulOctJulNovJulNov2022Global2022Advanced2022United States2022Advancedexcl.UnitedStates2022Emerging2022China2022Latin AmericaOTHERENERGYFOODCHANGES IN INFLATION AND CONTRIBUTIONS,BY GEOGRAPHICAL AREA(a)%y-o-y24THERE ARE

51、 EARLY SIGNS OF INFLATION RATES MODERATING IN SOME ECONOMIES,BUT UNDERLYINGINFLATION REMAINS VERY HIGHSources:national statistics and Refinitiv.(a)The advanced economies aggregate includes 13 geographical areas(euro area,United States,United Kingdom,Canada,Czech Republic,Denmark,Iceland,Israel,Japan

52、,South Korea,Norway,Sweden and Switzerland)and the emerging market economies aggregate includes 13 Asian,East European and Latin American economies(China,India,Indonesia,Malaysia,Thailand,Hungary,Poland,Russia,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Mexico and Peru).DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEAR

53、CH BANCO DE ESPAA25GROWTH FORECASTS FOR 2023 TEND TO BE REVISED DOWNWARDSSources:Bloomberg,Consensus Forecasts and S&P Global.(a)The advanced economies aggregate includes 13 geographical areas(euro area,United States,United Kingdom,Canada,Czech Republic,Denmark,Iceland,Israel,Japan,South Korea,Norwa

54、y,Sweden and Switzerland)and the emerging market economies aggregate includes 13 Asian,East European and Latin American economies(China,India,Indonesia,Malaysia,Thailand,Hungary,Poland,Russia,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Mexico and Peru).012345678910GlobalAdvancedeconomiesUnitedStatesAdvancedeconomiesexcl.

55、UnitedStatesEmergingmarketeconomiesChinaLatinAmerica20212022 FORECAST(NOVEMBER CONSENSUS)2023 FORECAST(NOVEMBER CONSENSUS)2022 AND 2023 FORECAST(JUNE CONSENSUS)GDP GROWTH FORECASTS FOR 2022 AND 2023 BY GEOGRAPHICAL AREA(a)%DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA26INFLATI

56、ON FORECASTS ARE MOSTLY REVISED UPWARDSSources:National statistics,Consensus Forecasts and Refinitv.(a)The advanced economies aggregate includes 13 geographical areas(euro area,United States,United Kingdom,Canada,Czech Republic,Denmark,Iceland,Israel,Japan,South Korea,Norway,Sweden and Switzerland)a

57、nd the emerging market economies aggregate includes 13 Asian,East European and Latin American economies(China,India,Indonesia,Malaysia,Thailand,Hungary,Poland,Russia,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Mexico and Peru).012345678910GlobalAdvancedeconomiesUnitedStatesAdvancedeconomiesexcl.UnitedStatesEmergingmarket

58、economiesChinaLatinAmerica20212022 FORECAST(NOVEMBER CONSENSUS)2023 FORECAST(NOVEMBER CONSENSUS)2022 AND 2023 FORECAST(JUNE CONSENSUS)INFLATION FORECASTS BY GEOGRAPHICAL AREA(a)%DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA27THE LATEST EUROSYSTEM PROJECTION EXERCISE REVISES EU

59、RO AREA GROWTH UPWARDS IN 2022AND DOWNWARDS IN 2023.INFLATION IS REVISED UPWARDS THROUGHOUT THE PROJECTION PERIODSource:ECB.EUROSYSTEM PROJECTION EXERCISE.DECEMBER 20223.40.51.91.8012342022202320242025GDP GROWTH IN THE EURO AREA%8.46.33.42.302468102022202320242025HEADLINE INFLATION IN THE EURO AREA%

60、SEP-22 MPE FORECASTSDEC-22 BMPE FORECASTSDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA28THE HEADLINE INFLATION RATE HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY,MAINLY OWING TO CHANGES IN THEENERGY COMPONENT OF PRICES-30369122019202020212022ENERGYFOODHICP EXCL.ENERGY AND FOODHICPHEADLINE HICP:

61、CONTRIBUTIONS%y-o-y and ppSources:INE and Banco de Espaa.DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA29THE INFLATION DIFFERENTIAL WITH THE EURO AREA FELL TO ITS RECORD LOW IN NOVEMBERSources:INE and Eurostat.-5-4-3-2-1012342019202020212022CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE INFLATION DIFFER

62、ENTIAL BETWEEN SPAIN AND THE EURO AREA%y-o-y and pp Most of this gap is due to the difference in the performance of electricity retail prices in Spain and the euro area Compared with the euro area,Spains share of retail contracts with dynamic pricing means fluctuations in the wholesale markets are s

63、wiftlypassed through to consumer prices This resulted in the highly positive inflation differential observed between Spain and the euro area in 2021(when wholesale pricesincreased)and the very negative gap currently recorded(when declines in wholesale prices predominate)DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS

64、,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA30FOOD INFLATION HAS ACCELERATED MORE INTENSELY IN SPAIN THAN IN THE EURO AREA,ALTHOUGHTHE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN THE TWO AREAS HAS NARROWED RECENTLYSources:INE and Banco de Espaa.(a)The weight in 2022 of each component in HICP for food,beverage and tobacco is sh

65、own in brackets.0246810121416202020212022UNPROCESSED FOOD(32.1%)PROCESSED FOOD(INCL.BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO)(67.9%)FOOD,BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO%y-o-y and ppHICP FOR FOOD,BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO:RATES AND CONTRIBUTIONS(a)%y-o-y and pp-20246810121416202020212022DIFFERENTIALSPAINEURO AREAHICP FOR FOOD,BEVERA

66、GES AND TOBACCO:CHANGES AND DIFFERENTIALDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA31WAGES MODERATION CONTINUESSource:Ministerio de Trabajo y Economa Social.(a)Based on individual information on agreements recorded up to November 2022.0,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,52016201820202022

67、(toNovember)REVISEDNEWTOTALWAGE SETTLEMENTS%02004006008001000120014002020 Q22020 Q32020 Q42021 Q12021 Q22021 Q32021 Q42022 Q12022 Q22022 Q32022 Q40-22-33-55AFFECTED WORKERS BY QUARTER IN WHICH THE AGREEMENT WAS SIGNED AND WAGE SETTLEMENT(a)Thousand workersDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND

68、 RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA32IN SERVICES,INFLATION IS CONCENTRATED IN LESS LABOUR-INTENSIVE SECTORSSources:INE and Banco de Espaa.For services sectors corresponding to the HICP services classes,data from the input-output tables are used to calculate wages as a share of total costs.Sectors whose shares

69、are higher than theaverage for all services(41.7%)are considered labour intensive.Also included are veterinary services and repair of motor vehicles,with shares of 41.1%and 35.6%,respectively(repair of motor vehiclesalso includes sales).-2-101234567Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan

70、-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22%y-o-yMORE LABOUR-INTENSIVE SECTORSLESS LABOUR-INTENSIVE SECTORSHICP SERVICES,BY SECTOR(RATES)-2-1012345Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-19Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22%y-o-y and ppHICP SERVICES,BY SECTOR(CONTRIBUTIONS)LESS

71、 LABOUR-INTENSIVE SECTORSMORE LABOUR-INTENSIVE SECTORSSECTORSDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA33EFFECT OF THE MEASURES TAKEN BY THE AUTHORITIESExtraordinary and temporary discount on the retail price of fuelCap on the price of gas used to generate electricityButane

72、 gas price freezeReduced tax rates on electricity bills:VAT to 5%and excise duty on electricity to 0.5%Price changes in rental agreements capped at 2%Reduced price of public transport season tickets and free rail season ticketsReduced VAT rate on natural gasReduction of just over 2 pp in the Novembe

73、r inflation rate(compared with a scenario of no measures)Cap on the increase in the cost of gas in the regulated rate for small natural gas consumers(maximum of15%)Suspension of the tax on electricity generationDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA-0.21.43.12.3-0.21.50

74、.2-0,50,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,52021 Q12021 Q22021 Q32021 Q42022 Q12022 Q22022 Q3QUARTER-ON-QUARTER GDP GROWTH(%)%34THE FLASH ESTIMATE OF GDP GROWTH IN Q3(+0.2%)IN LINE WITH THE BANCO DE ESPAA OCTOBERPROJECTIONS(+0.1%)POINTS TO A SIGNIFICANT SLOWDOWN COMPARED WITH Q2(+1.5%)Sources:INE and Banco de Esp

75、aa.Q3 flash estimate BE October estimateDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA35ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE,EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN Q4 HAS BEEN SIMILAR TO THATOBSERVED IN Q3Sources:Ministerio de Inclusin,Seguridad Social y Migraciones and Banco de Espaa.(a)Seasonally adju

76、sted series.-0,10,00,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,8Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22TOTAL SOCIAL SECURITY REGISTRATIONSFURLOUGH SCHEMESEFFECTIVE SOCIAL SECURITY REGISTRATIONSTOTAL SOCIAL SECURITY REGISTRATIONS,FURLOUGHED WORKERS AND EFFECTIVE SOCIAL SECURITY REGISTRATIONS(a)

77、%m-o-mDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA36THE SHARE OF TEMPORARY EMPLOYMENT HAS FALLEN VERY SHARPLY IN THE SPANISH JOB MARKETSINCE EARLY 2022,APPROACHING THE EURO AREA AVERAGESources:EPA(INE),EU-LFS(Eurostat),Ministerio de Inclusin,Seguridad Social y Migraciones and

78、 Banco de Espaa.The temporary employment ratio has declined by 13.5 pp since November 2021.Around 25%of this decrease(3.2 pp)has been attributableto the increase in permanent seasonal contracts.For this type of contract,the deregistration rate(i.e.average monthly deregistrations as apercentage of th

79、e total number registered)has increased in recent months and approached the deregistration rate for temporary contractsYEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGE IN THE TEMPORARY EMPLOYMENT RATIO AND CONTRIBUTIONS BY TYPE OF PERMANENT CONTRACT(REGISTRATIONS)-16-14-12-10-8-6-4-202Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22A

80、ug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22%and ppFULL-TIME PERMANENTPART-TIME PERMANENTSEASONAL PERMANENTTEMPORARY0,00,51,01,52,02,5Full-timeperm.Part-timeperm.Seasonalperm.Full-timetemp.Part-timetemp.Perm.Temp.Total%2015-2019 AVERAGE2022 AVERAGE0510152025302015 Q12016 Q32018 Q12019 Q32021 Q12022 Q3TEMPORARY EMPLOYMEN

81、T RATIO(SPANISH LABOUR FORCE SURVEY)TOTALPRIVATE SECTOREURO AREA%DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA37THE CONVERSION OF TEMPORARY TO PERMANENT CONTRACTS MAY HAVE HELPED SUSTAINAGGREGATE SPENDING IN RECENT MONTHS(1/2)Workers with a permanent contract allocate an avera

82、ge of 81%of their household income to spending,compared with 72%in the case ofthose with a temporary contract(Source:Anghel,Barcel and Villanueva(2023)Converting temporary to permanent contracts has historically led to an increase in spending of approximately 20%in the following twoquarters(Source:A

83、nghel,Barcel and Villanueva(2019)Counterfactual scenario 1:the spending-to-income ratios remain constant at 2019 levels,but the proportions of workers by contract typechange in line with developments in the Spanish Labour Force Survey between 2021 Q3 and 2022 Q3Empirical evidence before the reform:I

84、nitial tentative approximations of the impact of the observed reduction in the share of temporary employment on consumption:Counterfactual scenario 2:the weights of the different types of workers in the income distribution remain constant at 2019 levels,but thespending-to-income ratio changes in lin

85、e with(1)the observed conversion of temporary to permanent contracts and(2)the elasticities of thespending-to-income ratio to the conversion of temporary to permanent contracts in Anghel,Barcel and Villanueva(2019)In this period the increase observed in the share of workers with a permanent contract

86、(out of the total population)would have raisedthe aggregate spending-to-income ratio by approximately 0.3 ppThe conversions carried out during the period of analysis would lead to an increase in the aggregate spending-to-income ratio ofapproximately 0.4 ppMore detailsDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,ST

87、ATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA38THE CONVERSION OF TEMPORARY TO PERMANENT CONTRACTS MAY HAVE HELPED SUSTAINAGGREGATE SPENDING IN RECENT MONTHS(2/2)Source:Anghel,Barcel and Villanueva(2023),“El aumento de los contratos indefinidos y su posible impacto en el gasto”,Banco de Espaa,forthcoming.Thes

88、e exercises do NOT represent an assessment of therecent labour market reform.which would need to consider multiple issues(forexample,the impact on employment,on the working lives ofworkerswithdifferentcontractsandtheirhumancapitalaccumulation,on labour turnover,on job postings,on businessproductivit

89、y.).and calls for having more information to correctlyidentify causal relationshipsCaveats These exercises are based on historical evidence(in whichseasonal permanent contracts have accounted for a very low share oftotal permanent contracts),and the results therefore cannot befully extrapolated to t

90、he current situation29292910070833363501020304050607080ObservedCounterfactual 1Counterfactual 2PERMANENT CONTRACTTEMPORARY CONTRACT+UNEMPLOYEDOTHERSPENDING-TO-INCOME RATIO,WEIGHTED BY CONTRIBUTIONS%+0.3+0.4DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA39ACCORDING TO THE BANCO D

91、E ESPAA BUSINESS ACTIVITY SURVEY,BUSINESS TURNOVER HASREMAINED PRACTICALLY STABLE IN Q4,WHILE EMPLOYMENT HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLYSource:EBAE(Banco de Espaa).(a)Index constructed by assigning the following values to firms responses:significant increase=2;slight increase=1;stable=0;slight decrease=1;sig

92、nificant decrease=2.-0,25-0,20-0,15-0,10-0,050,000,050,100,152020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q1(e)Nov-20Feb-21May-21Aug-21Nov-21Feb-22May-22Sep-22Nov-22QUARTERLY CHANGES IN EMPLOYMENT(a)-0,5-0,4-0,3-0,2-0,10,00,10,22020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q

93、1(e)Nov-20Feb-21 May-21Aug-21Nov-21Feb-22 May-22Sep-22Nov-22QUARTERLY CHANGES IN TURNOVER(a)DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA40CONFIDENCE INDICATORS HAVE REMAINED AT VERY LOW LEVELS OR CONTINUED TO DECLINESources:S&P Global and European Commission.(a)Quarterly aver

94、ages based on data available for the period:October-November average for the fourth quarter of the year.404550556065Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22MANUFACTURING PMI.OUTPUTSERVICES PMI.ACTIVITYCOMPOSITE PMIPURCHASING MANAGERS INDEXIndex707580859095100105110115120-40-30-20-100102030Ma

95、r-21Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22CONSUMERSINDUSTRYSERVICESECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDICATOR(right-hand scale)CONFIDENCE INDICATORSIndexIndexDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA41OTHER INDICATORS PROVIDE MIXED SIGNALS BUT GENERALLY POINT TO SOME WEAKNESS INACTI

96、VITYSources:INE,Agencia Tributaria and Banco de Espaa.Seasonally adjusted series.-6-4-20246Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22RETAIL TRADE INDEX%-6-4-202468Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22SALES OF LARGE CORPORATIONS(TAX AUTHORITIES)%-3-2-10123Jan-

97、22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX%-40-30-20-10010203040Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22%PRIVATE VEHICLE REGISTRATIONSDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA42SMES PERCEIVE THAT THEIR ACCE

98、SS TO EXTERNAL FUNDING HAS DETERIORATED,ALTHOUGH THEYCONTINUE TO REPORT FEW DIFFICULTIES IN OBTAINING BANK FINANCINGSource:ECB.Round of the survey:April-September 2022.(a)Percentage of firms reporting an improvement less percentage of firms reporting a deterioration.-30-20-10010203040111213141516171

99、819202122SPANISH SMEs PERCEPTION OF THE AVAILABILITY OF BANK FINANCING(a)%ImprovementDeterioration051015202530111213141516171819202122SPANISH SMEs WITH DIFFICULTIES IN OBTAINING BANK FINANCING%0510152025Labour andproduction costsShortage ofskilled labourFindingcustomersCompetitionRegulationAccess to

100、financingMAIN CHALLENGES FOR SPANISH SMEsApril-September 2022%DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA43SPANISH GDP IS EXPECTED TO GROW BY 0.1%QUARTER-ON-QUARTER IN Q4,ALTHOUGH THISESTIMATE IS SUBJECT TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTYSources:INE and Banco de Espaa.-0.21.43.12.3

101、-0.21.50.20.1-0,50,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,52021 Q12021 Q22021 Q32021 Q42022 Q12022 Q22022 Q32022 Q4QUARTER-ON-QUARTER GDP GROWTH(%)%3.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0-0.5DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA44OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONSSources:MIBGAS,Reuters and Banco de Espaa.0

102、50100150200250202120222023GAS PRICE AND FUTURES ON MIBGASGAS(MIBGAS INDEX)FUTURES,OCTOBER QUARTERLY REPORT(26/09)FUTURES.CUT-OFF DECEMBER QUARTERLY REPORTLATEST FUTURES(14/12)/MWh02040608010012014020202021202220232024OIL PRICEOCTOBER 2022DECEMBER 2022OBSERVED$/barrelDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STA

103、TISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA45ASSUMPTIONSREGARDINGDEVELOPMENTSINTHEINTERNATIONALENVIRONMENTANDINMONETARY AND FINANCIAL CONDITIONSSources:Banco de Espaa and ECB.(a)Cut-off date for assumptions:28 November 2022 for Spains export markets and 24 November 2022 for all other variables.Figures expre

104、ssed as levels are annual averages;the figures expressed asrates are calculated on the basis of the related annual averages.(b)The differences are in rates for export markets,in levels for oil prices and the dollar/euro exchange rate,in percentages for the nominal effective exchange rate and in perc

105、entage points for interestrates.(c)The assumptions regarding the behaviour of Spains export markets presented in the table are obtained from the December 2022 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area.(d)A positive percentage change in the nominal effective exchange rate denotes a

106、n appreciation of the euro.(e)For the projection period,the figures in the table are technical assumptions,prepared following the Eurosystems methodology.These assumptions are based on futures market prices or on proxiesthereof and should not be interpreted as a Eurosystem prediction as to the cours

107、e of these variables.December 2022 projections(a)Difference between the current projections and the October 2022 projections(b)202120222023202420252022202320242025Spains export markets(c)9.9 7.7 2.1 3.0 3.1 1.4 -0.4 -0.1 -Oil price in dollars/barrel(level)71.1 104.6 86.4 79.7 76.0 1.7 6.9 5.5 -Monet

108、ary and financial conditionsDollar/euro exchange rate(level)1.18 1.05 1.03 1.03 1.03 0.01 0.05 0.05 -Nominal effective exchange rate against non-euro area countries(d)(2000=100)120.7 111.9 111.2 111.2 111.2 0.6 3.9 3.9 -Short-term interest rates(3-month EURIBOR.Level)(e)-0.5 0.3 2.9 2.7 2.5 0.0 0.0

109、-0.2 -Long-term interest rates(10-year Spanish government bond yield.Level)(e)0.3 2.2 2.9 3.1 3.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -Annual rate of change,unless otherwise indicatedDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA46ASSUMPTIONS REGARDING THE DURATION OF THE MEASURES DIRECTLY AFFECTING

110、 INFLATIONTAKEN BY THE AUTHORITIES TO MITIGATE THE INCREASE IN ENERGY PRICES(*)It is assumed that only the portion financed by the central government is extended.Extraordinary discount on fuel retail prices Cap on the price of gas used to generate electricity Reduced tax rates on electricity bills:V

111、AT to 5%and excise duty on electricityto 0.5%VAT on natural gas reduced to 5%Suspension of the tax on electricity generation Price changes in rental agreements capped at 2%Butane gas price freeze Reduced price of public transport season tickets(*)Cap on the increase in the cost of gas in the regulat

112、ed rate for small natural gasconsumers(maximum of 15%)Free rail season ticketsIn force until31/12/2022In force until31/05/2023In force until31/12/2022In force until 31/12/2023In force until31/12/2022In force until31/12/2023October projectionsDecember projectionsDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTI

113、CS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA47MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS 2022-2025Sources:Banco de Espaa and INE.Latest QNA figure published:2022 Q3 flash estimate.Projections cut-off date:30 November 2022.December 2022projectionsOctober 2022projections20212022202320242025202220232024GDP5.5 4.6 1.3 2.7 2.1 4.5 1.4

114、 2.9 Private consumption6.0 2.1 1.9 2.8 2.1 1.6 1.3 3.2 Government consumption2.9-1.6 0.3 0.9 1.2-1.5 0.0 0.9 Gross fixed capital formation0.9 5.2 1.6 3.0 2.3 4.7 1.7 2.6 Exports of goods and services14.4 18.0 3.8 3.0 3.1 17.5 4.0 3.1 Imports of goods and services13.9 9.7 4.3 2.5 2.9 8.2 3.1 2.4 Dom

115、estic demand(contribution to growth)5.2 1.6 1.4 2.4 1.9 1.1 0.9 2.5 Net external demand(contribution to growth)0.3 3.0-0.1 0.3 0.2 3.4 0.5 0.4 Nominal GDP7.9 8.5 5.8 5.9 4.4 8.1 5.9 5.6 GDP deflator2.3 3.6 4.5 3.2 2.2 3.5 4.5 2.6 Harmonised index of consumer prices(HICP)3.0 8.4 4.9 3.6 1.8 8.7 5.6 1

116、.9 HICP excluding energy and food0.6 3.8 3.4 2.2 1.8 3.9 3.5 2.1 Employment(hours)7.2 4.1 0.5 1.6 1.1 4.0 0.8 2.5 Unemployment rate(%of labour force).Annual average14.8 12.8 12.9 12.2 12.0 12.8 12.9 12.4 Net lending(+)/net borrowing(-)of the nation(%of GDP)1.9 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.7 3.4 General gov

117、ernment net lending(+)/net borrowing(-)(%of GDP)-6.9-4.2-4.1-3.7-4.5-4.3-4.0-4.3 General government debt(%of GDP)118.3 113.1 110.6 108.8 109.8 113.3 110.7 109.9 Annual rate of change in volume terms and%of GDPDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA48HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION

118、 IS LAGGING PARTICULARLY BEHIND THE OTHER DEMAND COMPONENTSIN ITS RECOVERY TO PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELSSources:INE and Banco de Espaa.94.796.8109.985.7111.5104.0130.9110.2111.9103.6020406080100120140PRIVATECONSUMPTIONGFCFINVESTMENT INCAPITAL GOODSINVESTMENT INHOUSINGEXPORTSGOODSEXPORTSSERVICESEXPORTSIMPOR

119、TSGOODSIMPORTSSERVICESIMPORTS2019 Q4=100RETURN TO PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS OF DEMAND COMPONENTS IN 2022 Q3DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA49ONLY 15%OF THE HOUSEHOLDS THAT INCREASED THEIR SAVINGS DURING THE HEALTH CRISIS HAVESUBSEQUENTLY DRAWN ON THOSE SAVINGS ECB CONSU

120、MER EXPECTATIONS SURVEYSource:“Impact on recent and expected consumption patterns of the savings accumulated by households during the pandemic”,Box 5 of this Quarterly Report,Banco de Espaa.Recently,this use of accumulated savings appears to have enabled these households to maintain more dynamic con

121、sumption patterns thanother households.Nevertheless,given the small size of this group of households,this does not appear to have driven up aggregate spendinglevels very significantly-4-2024681012Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22%HOUSEHOLDS THAT ACCUMULATED SAVINGS IN 2020

122、 AND HAVE NOT DRAWN ON THEMHOUSEHOLDS THAT ACCUMULATED SAVINGS IN 2020 AND DREW ON THEM IN JULY 2021-JULY 2022OTHER HOUSEHOLDSNOMINAL CONSUMPTION GROWTH COMPARED WITH 12 MONTHS EARLIER.Quarterly averageDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA50DETERIORATION IN HOUSEHOLD C

123、ONFIDENCE AND HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE PATTERNS,BY INCOMEQUARTILESources:European Commission and Consumer Expectations Survey(ECB).-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-50510Dec-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22IndexCONSUMER CONFIDENCE BY INCOME QUARTILE05101520253035404550Apr-20J

124、ul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22IndexPROPORTION OF HOUSEHOLDS REPORTING HOLIDAY EXPENDITURE IN THE LAST MONTH050Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22IndexQUARTILE 1QUARTILE 2QUARTILE 3QUARTILE 4DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE

125、 ESPAA51THE CONSUMPTION EXPECTATIONS OVER A ONE-YEAR HORIZON OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT SAVEDDURING THE PANDEMIC ARE NO BETTER THAN THOSE OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT DID NOT CES,ECBSource:“Impact on recent and expected consumption patterns of the savings accumulated by households during the pandemic”,Box 5 of this Q

126、uarterly Report,Banco de Espaa.0,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,54,04,5Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Mar-21Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22%HOUSEHOLDS THAT ACCUMULATED SAVINGS IN 2020OTHER HOUSEHOLDSEXPECTED NOMINAL CONSUMPTION GROWTH IN NEXT 12 MONTHS.QUARTERLY AVERAGEDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RES

127、EARCH BANCO DE ESPAA52HOUSEHOLD SAVING RATE:DEVELOPMENTS AND FORECASTSources:INE and Banco de Espaa.024681012141618202010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025SAVING RATEBANCO DE ESPAA DATA AND PROJECTIONS(December 2022)1999-2019 AVERAGE%of gross disposable incomeDIRECTORATE GE

128、NERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA53INFLATIONARY PRESSURES ARE VERY WIDESPREAD IN THE CONSUMER GOODS AND SERVICESBASKETSources:INE and Banco de Espaa.020406080100Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22 6%HICP:PERCENTAGE OF SUB-CLASSES IN EACH GROWTH RANGEDIRECTORATE GENE

129、RAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA54INFLATION MOMENTUM CONTINUES TO BE VERY ROBUSTSources:INE and Banco de Espaa.(a)Month-on-month rates adjusted for the 2016-2019 average rates for each month.010203040503%OF HICP SUB-CLASSES BY ADJUSTED MONTH-ON-MONTH RATES(a)NOVEMBER 2020NOVEMBER

130、 2021NOVEMBER 2022010203040503%OF HICP SUB-CLASSES BY ADJUSTED MONTH-ON-MONTH RATES(a)AUGUST 2022SEPTEMBER 2022OCTOBRER 2022NOVEMBER 2022%DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA55THERE IS A LAG BETWEEN FLUCTUATIONS IN WHOLESALE ENERGY PRICES AND CHANGES ININDUSTRIAL(AND

131、CONSUMER)PRICESSource:“The asymmetric response of producer prices to rising oil and gas prices”,Box 3 of this Quarterly Report,Banco de Espaa.-0,10,00,10,20,30,40,50,60123456789%OIL(BRENT)NATURAL GAS(MIBGAS)Months elapsedIMPACT OF ENERGY PRICES ON PRODUCER PRICES(a)DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STAT

132、ISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA56WHILE FIRMS PERCEIVE A CERTAIN EASING OF INFLATIONARY PRESSURES IN RECENT TIMES,SUCHPRESSURES ARE BARELY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE COMING YEARSource:EBAE(Banco de Espaa).(a)Index constructed by assigning the following values to firms responses:significant increa

133、se=2;slight increase=1;stability=0;slight decrease=1;significant decrease=2.-0,4-0,20,00,20,40,60,81,01,21,42020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022TQ12022Q22022Q32022Q4Nov-20 Feb-21May-21Aug-21Nov-21 Feb-22May-22Sep-22Nov-22QUARTERLY PRICE VARIATIONS(a)INPUT PRICESOUTPUT PRICES0,00,20,40,60,81,01,2INPUT

134、PRICESOUTPUT PRICESLABOUR COSTSOUTLOOK FOR PRICES AND COSTS 1 YEAR AHEAD(a)2021 Q42022 Q12022 Q22020 Q32022 Q4DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA57PRODUCER PRICES SUGGEST THAT PROCESSED FOOD INFLATION COULD REMAIN HIGH IN THECOMING MONTHSSources:INE and Banco de Espa

135、a.(a)In brackets,the share in 2022 of each HICP processed food component(excluding beverages and tobacco).-505101520202020212022PRODUCER PRICE INDICATORIMPORT PRODUCER PRICE INDICATORHICP PROCESSED FOOD(INCLUDING BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO)FOOD:HICP AND PRODUCER PRICE INDICATORS%year-on-year-202468101214

136、16182020212022OTHER FOOD(27.5%)MILK AND CHEESE(19.1%)BREAD AND CEREALS(24.9%)PROCESSED MEAT AND FISH(28.5%)PROCESSED FOOD(EXCL.BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO)PROCESSED FOOD(EXCL.BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO):RATES AND CONTRIBUTIONS(a)%year-on-year and ppDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE

137、 ESPAABenignAdverseWinter2022/23Winter2023/24Winter2022/23Winter2023/24Inventories as%of consumptionNo solidarity agreementsBelgium-50Bulgaria-50=x-40Croatia-40=x-30Slovakia-30=x-20Spain-20=x-10France-10=x=0HungaryPolandPortugalCzech RepublicRomaniaSolidarity agreementsGermany,Austria and DenmarkEst

138、onia,Finland,Latvia and LithuaniaSlovenia and Italy58NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES IN 2022 AND 2023 IN THE EU ECONOMIES UNDER TWO HYPOTHETICALSCENARIOSSources:Banco de Espaa and Gas Infrastructure Europe.Latest data observed:November 2022.(a)The data depicted in the risk map correspond to the minimum rati

139、o of inventories to monthly consumption,as a percentage,in the winter months(November to April).The benign scenario assumes thatdemand for natural gas is contained,thanks to favourable weather conditions and fulfilment of the European Commissions targets,and that the regasification and production pr

140、ojects announced arerealised.Under the adverse scenario,consumption is higher owing to two consecutive cold winters and to a fall in consumption half that observed to date.Under this scenario,the supply-side projectsare delayed by six months.Countries that have signed solidarity agreements,committin

141、g to share their surplus gas,are grouped together.Countries for which insufficient data are available are notincluded.RISK SCENARIOS OF SHORTAGES IN THE EU IN WINTERS 2022/23 AND 2023/24(a)Under different scenarios,the risk of gas shortages in the main European economies is quite limited in winter 2

142、022/23 and slightly higher inwinter 2023/24;in both periods the risk is quite low in Spain0204060801001200510152025GermanyItalyFranceNetherlandsAustriaHungarySlovakiaCzech Rep.RomaniaPolandSpainLatviaDenmarkBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaPortugalSwedenEU(r-h scale)Minimum/maximum(2017-2022)NovemberEU GAS INV

143、ENTORIESBillion cubic metresDIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA59POTENTIAL SENSITIVITY OF NATURAL GAS AND ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN SPAIN TO DIFFERENTWEATHER SCENARIOS IN WINTER 2022/23Source:“Potential sensitivity of natural gas and electricity consumption in Spain

144、 to different weather scenarios in winter 2022-2023”,Box 3 of this Quarterly Report,Banco de Espaa.Changes in temperature are a key determinant of Spanish households and SMEs demand for energy be it for natural gas or electricity If winter 2022/23 is as mild as winter 2021/22,the change in energy co

145、nsumption patterns observed in recent months could lead to adecline of up to 10%year-on-year in natural gas consumption in Spain However,if winter 2022/23 proves to be as cold as winter 2004/05,natural gas consumption in Spain could be around 25%higher thanlast winter0100200300400500600010203040Dema

146、nd for natural gas.MWhMaximum daily temperatureHOUSEHOLD AND SME DEMAND FOR NATURAL GAS AND DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE2019-20212022050000100000150000200000250000300000350000010203040Demand for electricity.MWhMaximum daily temperatureESTIMATED HOUSEHOLD AND SME DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY AND DAILY MAXIMUM

147、 TEMPERATURE2019-20212022DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMICS,STATISTICS AND RESEARCH BANCO DE ESPAA60SENSITIVITY OF THE GDP AND INFLATION PROJECTIONS TO DIFFERENT ASSUMPTIONS AS TO THECONTINUATION OF THE MEASURES TAKEN TO MITIGATE PRICE RISESSource:Banco de Espaa.(a)Measures considered:the tax rate reduct

148、ions in electricity bills(from 10%to 5%in the case of VAT and from 5.1%to 0.5%in the case of the excise duty on electricity);the reduction in the VAT rate onnatural gas from 21%to 5%;the suspension of the tax on electricity generation;the butane gas price freeze;the government subsidy for public tra

149、nsport season tickets;and the 2%cap on rentincreases.-0,8-0,6-0,4-0,20,00,20,40,60,8GDPInflationGDPInflation20232024ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO 1:MEASURES TO MITIGATE THE EFFECTS OF THE ENERGY CRISIS EXTENDED UNTIL END-JUNE 2023(a)ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO 2:DISCOUNT ON FUEL RETAIL PRICES EXTENDED UNTIL END-2023DIFFERENCES VS THE BASELINE SCENARIO IN 2023 AND 2024 DUE TO THE FISCAL POLICY MEASURES.GDP GROWTH AND INFLATION