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1、 2023 Boston Consulting Group1Consider three events in the last three years:the COVID-19 pandemic,Russias invasion of Ukraine,and the sudden availability of plain-speaking generative artificial intelligence(GenAI).Then lookforward to the growing impact of climate change and the possibility of more s

2、evere droughts,floods,and fires.Now think about your companys risk management capability.Is it organized,and does itpossess the capabilities it needs for todays worldand tomorrows?The New World of Riskand What to DoAbout ItJUNE 28,2023 By Matteo Coppola,Katharina Heer,Marianna Leoni,and Thomas Pfuhl

3、erREADING TIME:12 MIN 2023 Boston Consulting Group2The answer for very few companies will be yes.Risk has always outpaced risk management,but thescale,complexity,and interconnectedness of risk today presents companies with new challenges.(See“Risky Business.”)Risks today are complex,fluid,fast movin

4、g,and interconnected.Economic risks,including market volatility,industry disruption,and geopolitical upheaval,arepervasive.Technology-related risks are growing in type and number.BCG estimatesthat the global cost of cybercrime,for example,has soared from$445 billion in 2015 tomore than$2 trillion to

5、day and will only continue to rise.Regulators have become more vigilant.The 190 non-financial companies included infour global market indices were fined more than$200 billion between 2009 and 2022.Over the same period,North American and European banks were fined more than$400 billion.Human-related r

6、isks continue to evolve in new ways.The current shortage of talent,especially analytical and new technology capabilities,is an immediate challenge.Insome of advanced banks today 40%of all open job roles are AI related.Then theres climate change,which represents an entirely new driver of risk withunk

7、nown ramifications.A recent analysis we performed for an infrastructure companyrevealed that flooding and other natural disasters could reduce EBITDA by up to 8%inthe next five years.Compounding all of the above are the speed at which threats develop and theirinterconnectedness.Information spreads r

8、apidly via social and business networks andthe impact can materialize in a flash.It took only a few days for solvency concerns tobring down the 16th largest bank in the US.The reverberations were felt almostimmediately by other banks in the US and Europe.Companies worldwide need a new model to appro

9、ach risk and integrate risk assessment into decisionmaking at all levels.Heres how to go about building it.RISKY BUSINESS 2023 Boston Consulting Group3A New Vision for Risk ManagementThis new and comprehensive approach to risk management starts with a risk function that is anchoredin the C-suite and

10、 involved directly in strategic decision making.It also requires mature businessfunctions that blend risk management into day-to-day decision making.The risk function must betightly connected with both the business and the finance functions and include the assessment offinancial and non-financial ri

11、sks(such as supply chain and other process-related risks).The technicaland analytical capabilities of the risk function should be used for decision making at all levels,makingoperations and processes more resilient.The goal is for risk management to operate as a control function that prevents indivi

12、dual risks fromreaching threatening levels while actively supporting the right risk-reward decisions.This riskmanagement approach is built on three pillars.(See the exhibit.)Growing the Company.To support a companys growth agenda,risk and business functions need towork together for timely and accura

13、te decision support.The risk function can provide the necessarydata and decision-relevant information for analytics to have impact,such as scenario analyses.Doing 2023 Boston Consulting Group4so requires new models of collaboration between risk and business that integrate the two more closelywhile m

14、aintaining the risk functions required independence.Analytics at customer or transaction levelenable best risk-return business decisions.Agile approaches,with their cross-functional team make-upand regular people rotation,are two ways to facilitate better understanding and collaboration betweenrisk

15、and business.Several banks are deploying advanced-analytics models to provide forward-looking information on theloan portfolio and risk-return analyses for commercial opportunities.These banks use customer-leveltransaction data to update old or unavailable financials,project future customer cash flo

16、ws in realtime,and assess the interconnections of clients with their customers and suppliers to identify supplychain risks.This real-time analysis helps make the right revenue-risk tradeoffs at the transaction level,generating significantly higher value from the portfolio.The banks use the same cust

17、omer data andrelated analysis(such as customer cash flow projections)for commercial needs(such as lending)andrisk assessment(affordability for the client),for example.To support a companys growth agenda,risk and business functions need to worktogether for timely and accurate decision support.Energy

18、companies can benefit from strategic decision making that is informed by continuousmonitoring of external metrics as they undertake large-scale transitions to renewable sources and newtechnologies.For one global energy player,this involved developing a detailed and well-defined riskappetite and clea

19、r governance with common understanding of the roles and responsibilities of relevantactors,enabling timely escalation in case of changing signals or alerts on the external environment.The new risk function provides an analytic infrastructure of metrics to monitor the evolution of variousscenarios an

20、d support a dynamic approach to portfolio management.Using risk-based analyses thecompany can deal more effectively with uncertainties in context and allocate resources optimally.Management can also manage the risk of stranded assets and assess options based on the economicviability of the business

21、models in the portfolio.Steering the Company.To further interconnect risk management and enterprise planning and helpbuild a more resilient organization,the risk function can support the finance function in understandingthe tradeoffs between risk and return in balance sheet planning.Companies need t

22、o be prepared formultiple stress scenarios.2023 Boston Consulting Group5In banking,the risk function traditionally has built and maintained a set of models for regulatorypurposes.Finance and risk management can join forces and use these models,which oen includealternatives to the baseline financial

23、planning exercise,to optimize the deployment of financialresources,including capital,liquidity,and funding.The planned P&L follows.To be effective,however,this collaboration requires integrated data platforms,structured processes,and strong teamingbetween the two functions.In other industries,the us

24、e of multiple scenarios to inform the planning process is equally applicableand will become more important over time.Companies can put in place a concrete framework thatenables them to screen,assess,and monitor potential internal and external adverse events that canimpede the achievement of defined

25、strategic objectives,such as entering a new market or boostingrevenues.This type of risk steering initiative is particularly valuable when the organization hasdeployed an ambitious strategic plan,embarked on a wide transformation program,or made a gamechanging investment decision.It involves a scena

26、rio-based assessment of the probability and likelyfinancial impact of potential adverse events,based on historical observation,current market trends,and expert judgement.In a world of risk-based multi-scenario planning,GenAI can dramatically transformplanning activities.A leading international fashi

27、on and luxury goods company,for example,has recently used thisapproach to identify more than 20 forward-looking scenarios across multiple risk categories(such assupply chain,image and reputation,service channel,and business interruption).It prioritized scenariosmore likely to endanger the new plans

28、chances for success,according to the potential impacts atvarying revenues level.For each of these“top scenarios,”the relevant risk management units and thebusiness agreed on a set of KPIs and related mitigation actions in the event that identified thresholdsare breached.In a world of risk-based mult

29、i-scenario planning,GenAI can dramatically transform planning activitiesin multiple ways,enabling a new operating model and at the same time streamlining activities andcosts.These include:Generating first dras of documentation,scenario descriptions,and potential regulatory impactanalyses.2023 Boston

30、 Consulting Group6GenAI applications are already a reality,and many companies are piloting new use cases with theultimate goal of transforming the planning operating model.But technology adds its own series of riskand concerns.Pressure to control the risks while still reaping the considerable reward

31、s is fueling theintegration of responsible AI,an approach to designing,developing,and deploying AI systems that isaligned with the companys purpose and values while still delivering transformative business impact.Risk management in the firm needs to be front and center in this effort.Protecting the

32、Company.Risks traditional role is more important than ever.But the level ofprotection needed requires a significant upgrade of the entire companys capabilities.In this updatedversion of protection,distributed and automated controls become the immune system that sensesthreats and issues responses.Thi

33、s requires a rethought control environmentthe set of standards andprocesses that provide the foundation for internal controls within the organization and clear earlywarning indicators.Risks traditional role is more important than ever.But the level of protection needed requires a significant upgrade

34、 of capabilities.For many companies,new data that can identify fraud in very early stages may be necessary.Bankingagain provides a useful example since its business model and the large number of financialtransactions taking place every day make banks particularly vulnerable to criminal attacks and o

35、thernefarious activity.Banks are increasingly taking a data-driven approach to address this challenge.Theyhave automated their know-your-customer processes to source relevant customer data,perform newsStreamlining decision making by using real-time comparisons and analysis of data againstbenchmarks

36、and detecting anomalies at granular level in the business.Reducing manual errors by automating data clean-up for processes such as budgeting oradvanced scenario simulations,with the potential for efficiency gains of up to 50%.Enabling a new reporting model that moves from individual what-if requests

37、 to a completeanalysis leveraging the full set of company data.Shiing work from low value to high value activities.2023 Boston Consulting Group7searches,and assess financial crime risks.They are leveraging AI to identify and block suspicioustransactions out of the millions of legitimate transactions

38、 banks are processing.Better use of data,analytics,and technology achieves more effective protection through a moreefficient use of resources.For example,at one leading bank,boosting prediction and prevention byenabling cross-risk data intelligence led to a 20%decrease in alerts escalated to the sec

39、ond level.Suchmoves also help the business to embed streamlined controls in business processes to achievecompliance by design.The range,complexity,and interconnectedness of threats today opens new mandates(andopportunities)for risk management to prove its value.A wide range of actors(governments,cyb

40、ercriminals,and employees,for example)with a variety of motivations(such as data disclosure andasset destruction)have access to similar attack methods(such as hacking and phishing followed bythe and extortion).Growing numbers of connections among a companys own IT function,itsoperational technology

41、and the Internet of Things,as well as overlapping tools,data,and processeslead to threats that start in one environment more easily spreading to others.Fusing risk management capabilities across the various types of risks and technologies can generateboth effectiveness and efficiency benefits.The ri

42、sk function needs to focus its enhanced capabilitiesupstream on prediction and prevention capabilities across risk types,such as threat monitoring andrisk profiling,and downstream by focusing on detection and response capabilities,such as scenariosand rules and investigation and remediation.Advanced

43、 technology and data capabilities,includingdata management platforms and advanced analytics,are key to both efforts.Companies in multiple industries have realized 20%to 30%staff synergies by joining forces inmultidisciplinary teams.Integrating case management and documenting end-to-end decision maki

44、nghas helped reduce IT costs by removing redundancies and realizing synergies while cutting processingtime by more than 30%.Finally,companies today need to embed resiliency at the core of their operations,technology,andbusiness.This requires a different logic from that of traditional operational ris

45、k management.Companies must consider how to maintain service continuity in the event of a major disruption,thepotential for harm to customers and the broader market ecosystem from potential events,and how toredesign end-to-end critical business services embedding modularity,redundancy,contingency,an

46、dability to react quickly to changes.De-Risking the FutureCEOs can launch a practical set of actions today to de-risk their companies future:2023 Boston Consulting Group8 Preparing for the future of risk requires a company-wide transformation in the operating model,theorganizational structure,and in

47、 the minds of the company employees.When everyone views themanagement of risk as a part of their job,a company is on its way to being well-prepared and resilientfor future risk events.The authors are grateful to their BCG colleagues in the Risk&Compliance practice whose insights andexperience contri

48、buted to this report.In particular,they thank Abhinav Bansal,Ingmar Broemstrup,StephanieBussan,Davide Corradi,Lorenzo Fantini,Bernhard Gehra,Gerold Grasshoff,Paul ORourke,SebastinRexhausen,Pierre Roussel,Hanjo Seibert,and Carsten Wiegand.Business functions can leverage customer-or product-level anal

49、ytics to anticipate commercialopportunities and balance risks,making optimal tradeoffs.This will require structuredcollaboration models with the risk function and enhanced analytical capabilities.Finance functions can build risk-based planning capabilities that use strategic scenario tools andcan ge

50、nerate early warnings of evolving external changes or threats and signal the need to launchcontingency or alternative actions.This will require structured collaboration models with the riskfunction,using shared data platforms and methodologies.Operations will need to build end-to-end resilient proce

51、sses,ensuring continuity and stability in themost critical client services and leveraging distributed controls mixing automation and humanprocesses.This will require structured collaboration models with the risk function to definescenarios,sensible tolerances,and a proper control framework.The risk

52、function will need to leverage technology to shi away from reporting and monitoringtasks to a high ratio(80%)of value-added activities.This will require significantly upgrading skillsto align with new risks(such as climate,IT,digital,and cyber)and technology requirements andbuilding an organization

53、fit for supporting the entire firm.The risk function will need to maintainits independence,but also transcend its traditional role to become a valued partner for the future.2023 Boston Consulting Group9AuthorsMatteo CoppolaMANAGING DIRECTOR&SENIOR PARTNER;GLOBAL LEADER,RISK&COMPLIANCEPRACTICEMilanKa

54、tharina HeerMANAGING DIRECTOR&PARTNERBerlinMarianna LeoniMANAGING DIRECTOR&PARTNERAthensThomas PfuhlerMANAGING DIRECTOR&PARTNERMunichABOUT BOSTON CONSULTING GROUPBoston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their most importantchallenges and capture their greatest

55、opportunities.BCG was the pioneer in business strategy when it wasfounded in 1963.Today,we work closely with clients to embrace a transformational approach aimed atbenefiting all stakeholdersempowering organizations to grow,build sustainable competitive advantage,and drive positive societal impact.O

56、ur diverse,global teams bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of perspectives thatquestion the status quo and spark change.BCG delivers solutions through leading-edge managementconsulting,technology and design,and corporate and digital ventures.We work in a uniquely collaborativem

57、odel across the firm and throughout all levels of the client organization,fueled by the goal of helping ourclients thrive and enabling them to make the world a better place.Boston Consulting Group 2023.All rights reserved.For information or permission to reprint,please contact BCG at .To find the latest 2023 Boston Consulting Group10BCG content and register to receive e-alerts on this topic or others,please visit .Follow BostonConsulting Group on Facebook and Twitter.