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1、THE CANADIAN VENTURE OPPORTUNITYJUNE 2023 E-BOOK1|Climate Tech:The Canadian Venture OpportunityClimate change is one of the great challenges of our time.Canada has a bold ambition to cut emissions by 40%below 2005 levels by 2030 and to achieve Net Zero by 2050.Reaching these goals will require major

2、 new technological breakthroughs,deployed at scale.But these breakthroughs,like any,present risks and opportunities.For individual companies and investors,climate tech offers the prospect of exciting growth,but also uncertainty over which initiatives to back,since some technologies may end up undera

3、chieving while others in more decisive hands could enable competitors to leapfrog them.For Canada overall,climate tech can enable decarbonization and enormous economic opportunities.Whether Canada is a“maker”or“taker”of climate tech will be a major determinant of our future prosperity.The themes of

4、opportunity and risk are echoed within the Canadian climate tech space itself.The excitement is sparked by the remarkable new technologies home-grown Canadian innovators are deploying around the world.The concern comes from the challenges these promising companies face as they grow and,sometimes,fai

5、l to scale or decide to leave Canada.To contribute to the conversation,we decided to launch this study,bringing together our expertise from BCG Green Ventures,our Center for Growth and Innovation Analytics and our Centre for Canadas Future.As we conducted our interviews and developed our factbase,bo

6、th our excitement and our concern grew.More than a few of us found ourselves telling our kids about the exciting achievements of Canadian innovators.But we also found some tough facts around the challenges these innovators face scaling their businesses.Despite recent market uncertainty,the climate-t

7、ech sector holds huge promise for Canadians.We hope you find this reports insights and recommendations interesting and actionable as you make your own decisions on how to navigate this opportunity.Sincerely,UNIQUE FACTBASE BCG Center for Innovation and Growth Analytics global and Canadian database o

8、f private venture investment 2017-2022 across 18 climate tech subsectors,broken down by venture and investor location and subsector 50+INTERVIEWS Innovators,investors,corporate innovation executives,policy makers both in Canada and at leading global organizations BCG EXPERTISE Experts from BCG Green

9、 Ventures,BCG Center for Innovation and Growth Analytics,BCG Centre for Canadas Future,BCGs Climate&Sustainability practice and our industry practice areasWhat we leveraged for this reportMessage from the authorsParham PeirooKeith HallidaySimon-Pierre MonetteWendi BacklerRaju SarmaYoussef AroubErik

10、ReedJanice HorneNaomi DesaiPilar Pedrinelli2|Why climate tech matters What should Canada doWhere does Canada standThree chapters:3|Climate Tech:The Canadian Venture OpportunityWhat we heard from corporates,investors and policy-makersTALENTBASIC RESEARCH/R&DSCALING IMPACTON CORPORATESCREATING VENTURE

11、SGLOBAL CHAMPIONSCanada has the benefit of being right next to the greatest market in the world-the US is a talent and capital suckFund ManagerWe are getting many more projects and capital from the US and at this rate,I would not be surprised to move our whole team there these are world leading scie

12、ntistsCanadian InnovatorThere is all this great tech percolating in the Canadian space.Why the heck arent more people focusing on it?Canadian InvestorCanadian investors are uniquely focused on risk mitigation versus asking how a company can be the next Apple.We have a different attitude to failure.F

13、ail fast doesnt exist hereCanadian InvestorMy cleantech would much rather set up a pilot in Canadawe couldnt make that happenCanadian InnovatorIts harder in Canada to have these large-scale projects get off the ground.Some of this tech is quite ambitious and seems to require millions of dollars in i

14、nvestments.Often,we need to be reassured by studies before fundingGovernment OfficialCanadian corporates need to be incentivized to partner with Canadian startups if there was a program for corporates to take a chance on a startup,we would gladly take that chance International Corporate VCBy far the

15、 biggest issue is conservative culture.So what you see is startups move to where capital and customers areCanadian InvestorWe dont see quite as much of a pull from corporate Canada Canadian InnovatorWe dont reward academics to spin off companies.Thats a cultural problem in the way the university sys

16、tem is set up,with an incentive structure around research grants and not innovationCanadian ProfessorCanadian universities lead in publications across several climate tech topics,yet Canada lags peers in patents;we innovate but we do not own IPCanadian VCWhere companies get lost is$5-15M we need a b

17、ig buyer to validate them,a partner,a shepherdCanadian IncubatorThere is a conservatism,a risk aversion.Fundamentally its just not a naturalfit for government mandate to go too far out of their normal lane to promote some technologies in CanadaGovernment Official4|Why climate tech mattersSECTION 1:W

18、hy climate tech matters 5|Why climate tech mattersTIME IS OF THE ESSENCEGlobal greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions are not on track to limit global warming to 1.5C a key ambition in the Paris Agreement.According to IPCC,dramatic emissions reductions will be required to reach that goal.If unchecked,the worl

19、ds current roughly 2.1C trajectory would result in drastic and irreversible climate impacts,exacerbating Arctic sea-ice melting,heat waves,sea level rise and overall economic impact.Grain yields could fall by 5-10%with warming of 1.5C;yield losses are twice as severe with 2C warming.Canada hopes to

20、mitigate these risks by cutting emissions by 40%by 2030 with even greater reductions to follow.Climate tech will be critical for Canada to reach these goals in the lowest-cost way possible,especially for the harder-to-abate reductions to come in the 2030s.The reliance on climate tech,both in Canada

21、and abroad,will present major economic opportunities and innovations in this area will be critical to maintaining future competitiveness in legacy sectors.Canada plans dramatic cuts in GHG emissions-spanning every sectorElectricityWaste and othersHeavy IndustryBuildingsAgricultureOil&GasTransportLUL

22、UCF&Credits40%target by 2030Gross positive emissions(TBD)2050 goal(0 MT)Offsetting negative emissions(TBD)Current 2050 Trajectory(60Gt)2050 1.5CPathway(9 Gt)2019Track Record2030CurrentPlan2050Net Zero730-84%4430Global pathway to limit warming to 1.5C Canadas Emissions Reduction Commitments6151779173

23、19118614311071535229-3014Source:Environment Canada,IPCC,BCG analysisNote:LULUCF:Land Use,Land Use Change and ForestryaNote:Based on IEA NZE scenario.Source:Net Zero by 2050,IEA;BCG GFMA,BCG analysisClimate tech is critical for Net Zero,yet 50%of solutions are not ready for marketMatureMarketuptakeDe

24、monstrationLargeprototype Smallprototype/lab51 Gt CO2100%12%40%Climate tech is crucial to meeting Canadas goals of 40%emissions reduction by 2030 and net zero by 2050.However,the International Energy Agencys Net Zero by 2050 report found that half of the emissions reduction required in its net-zero

25、emissions scenario comes from climate tech that is currently in the demonstration or prototype stages.Successfully moving climate tech ideas from the lab to mainstream implementation and doing so quickly will be critical.Climate tech must also be implemented at scale.According to a Global Financial

26、Markets Association and BCG analysis,US$3-5 trillion or more per year in global climate finance investments is required for the world to reach net zero.Achieving Canadas net-zero targets will require a 6-9x increase in climate-focused investment.These needs present a major opportunity for Canadas pr

27、omising crop of early-stage climate tech ventures.The billion-dollar climate tech companies of the 2050s may be startups today,or perhaps not yet even founded.Climate tech under developmentEmissions cutsneeded forNet Zero 205023%20%6|Why climate tech matters5%Innovation cycles for climate tech need

28、to accelerate rapidly CCUS in cement productionDirect air captureWind power1950197019902010203013163010162010203030Up to 2020:LEDsSmallprototypeLargeprototypeDemonstrationSource:Net Zero by 2050,IEA;BCG analysisEstimated remaining time to marketClimate tech examplesYears from prototypeto marketFor C

29、anada to achieve its emissions reductions targets,product development times must shrink dramaticallyoutpacing even the fastest energy tech development in the past by 20%and around 40%faster than was the case for solar PV.According to the International Energy Agencys net zero scenario,technologies in

30、 demonstration stage such as CCUS in cement production or ammonia-fueled ships need to be brought to market in the next three to four years.And direct air capture and hydrogen-based steel production need to reach the market in about six years.Enabling rapid acceleration in climate tech development w

31、ill require increased flows of climate capital as well as corporate champions willing to undertake protoype and demonstration projects.Canada does not have time to wait for technologies to be fully proven elsewhere.We must learn in parallel.This means accelerating the development of Canadian climate

32、 tech and deploying it at scale as quickly as possible.7|Why climate tech matters?Past historical examplesSolar photovoltaicLithium-ion batteryqCanadian climate techs rising to the challenge,attracting growing investmentNote:Analysis based on climate tech startups funded since 2017.Climate tech inve

33、stments include traditional VC,PE,corporate VC,plus other equity&debt financing(including project finance).Not all deal data is public,only 2/3 of deals are included in data set.Sources:NetBase Quid;BCG Green Tech Portal,BCGs Center for Growth and Innovation Analytics;BCG analysisEmerging Technology

34、Carbon software/services Methane managementLow-carbon building materials Climate intelligenceCCUS and direct air capture Hydrogen&fuel cellsEarly AdoptionSmart gridsHeat pumps&HVAC Alternative proteins Sustainable packaging Energy efficiency Agriculture technologyMaturingEV&electrification enablemen

35、t Utility-scale storageBattery tech&materials Sustainable fuels Nuclear powerRecycling&resource recovery Renewable power&services$627M$580M$533M$1,084M2017$15M3.9%$14M4.3%$9M1.8%$6M1.3%$17M2018201920202021Share ofGlobal(%)Canada has seen dramatic growth in private climate tech investment in recent y

36、ears,with funding quadrupling between 2017 and 2022.Segments such as sustainable fuels and CCUS have seen particularly strong rates of investment.Note on methodology:The investment data on this and subsequent pages comes from BCGs Green Tech Portal with our Center for Growth and Innovation Analytics

37、.The data is based on public disclosures of private equity and debt issuances covering VC and PE investments in early-,growth-,and late-stage funding rounds.It also includes non-debt/equity backed funding such as crowdfunding and government grants.$2,343M$2,371MAverage Deal Size(US$)8|Why climate te

38、ch mattersTotal Canadian climate tech private investment per year(US$)Early AdoptionEmerging TechMaturing$24M2.8%2.3%Canadian innovators seizing impressive early position in select emerging sectorsAnalysis based on climate tech startups funded since 2017,does not include corporate R&D.35%of investme

39、nt data undisclosed.Climate tech investments include traditional VC,PE,corpo-rate VC,plus other equity&debt financing(including project finance)Note:Other include tech spaces US$100M3%2%2%3%4%3%1%1%8%4%3%3%4%3%4%1%1%5%2%4%1%3%3%0%0%2%4%STRENGTHSCHALLENGESShare of climate tech funding events US$50M (

40、%share of total funding events over last 5 years)6%Despite Canadas plethora of climate tech startups and above average investment levels overall performance slips down the rankings when it comes to later-stage investment.Only 7%of Canadian funding events over the last 5 years were US$50M the US saw

41、double that at 12%.Canadian investors can play a larger role in bridging this gap domestically-approximately 55%of investments in Canada were driven by international investors,while Canadian investors deployed roughly four-fifths of their capital outside Canada.16|Where does Canada standPRODUCE GLOB

42、AL CHAMPIONSMany Canadian startups are emerging as global championsCanada boasts 12 of the worlds top 100 cleantech startups52111613457372371221Energy&PowerCanadian companies in The Global Cleantech 100CanadaUSOtherResources&EnvironmentTransport&LogisticsAgriculture&FoodMaterials&ChemicalsSTRENGTHSC

43、HALLENGESTop 100 Cleantech Startups by CategoryCanada particularly strong in Energy&Power /Resources&Environment/Materials&ChemicalsCanada boasts 12 of the worlds top 100 cleantech startups based on a recent 2023 report by The Cleantech Group.This includes especially strong performance in the Energy

44、/Power,Resources/Environment and Materials/Chemicals sub-segments.Startups are supported by a globally relevant energy industry which provides opportunities to build strong connections with corporate VCs.While there are some promising players,multiple interviewees cited conservatism in corporate Can

45、ada and an ambition gap between Canadian and US entrepreneurs as key constraints toward building global champions.Beyond that,multiple promising Canadian startups have been acquired by US players or are shifting major demonstration project activity to other more favourable markets such as the US or

46、UK.438103Sources:The CleanTech Group,BCG Analysis1.Financial institutions include traditional investment managers,hedge funds,sovereign funds,pension funds,etc.Corporates include government agencies and funds.36%of investment data undisclosed.Does not include internal corporate R&D spend.Corporate i

47、nvestments in fund vehicles counted as VC/PE Analysis based on investor activity in climate tech from 2017Q3 until 2022.Climate tech investments include traditional VC,PE,corporate VC,plus other equity&debt financing(including project finance)Source:NetBase Quid(CapIQ,Crunchbase),BCG Center for Grow

48、th and Innovation Analytics,BCG AnalysisCanadian investors and corporates are missing an opportunity to play a bigger role in Canadian climate tech Corporate mix of private investment is 2.8X higher in US than Canada83%of private climate tech investment by Canadian investors goes outside Canada55%of

49、 private climate tech investment in Canada comes from foreign investors%of private investment in geography by investor type(2017-22)Canadian investors investments by geography($M USD)%of PI in Canada from Canadian and international investors100806040200United StatesUKCanadaSingaporeSwedenGermanySwit

50、zerlandIndiaAustraliaNetherlandsMaturingEarly AdoptionEmerging TechnologyCorporatesInstitutional1VC/PEAsia-Pacific EuropeUSACanadaCanadian investorsInternational investors45%55%17|Where does Canada stand2.8X5X8XOnly 17%of Canadian investorsdollars flow to CanadaCorporates lagging and represent muchl

51、ower share of climatetech private investmentin CanadaOver halfof investment into Canadian climate tech comes from abroad1XFOSTER TALENTDEVELOPLEADING IPCREATE VENTURESSCALE IMPACTPRODUCT GLOBAL CHAMPIONSMeanwhile,our competitors are doubling down on climate tech with a range of innovative approaches

52、18|Where does Canada standInitiatives to grow&strengthen climate tech talent by stealing top talent from abroadNovel initiatives designed to spur research&encourage actor participation Major govt funding for cleantechLarge corporates initiating cleantech CVC armsVenture models are convening large pu

53、blic&private players,raising significant amounts of capital to help cleantech startups rapidly scale and commercialize GovernmentCorporate Public-PrivatePartnershipsSTART-UP CHILEEIT INNOENERGYAMERICAN-MADE CHALLENGESCLEAN DENMARKFIRST MOVERS COALITIONBREAKTHROUGH ENERGY CATALYSTENERGY SYSTEMS CATAP

54、ULTINNOVATION NORWAYSecures visas for the talent associated with foreign startups willing to relocate to ChileOffers unique masters degree programs,training&career support to international students interested in the energy industry Open,low-stakes challenges to expand participation with winners rece

55、iving NREL lab access to trial technologyEU-gold certified cleantech cluster facilitating projects between researchers,startups,and corporates Corporate purchasing pledges to catalyze low-carbon products;commitments exceed US$12BHigh-profile private&public sector partners to rapidly scale promising

56、ventures 1500+connected homes providing a living lab for innovators to test new techA one-stop shop for cleantech startups each assigned a manager to help navigate available programsEQUINOR:Deploying$750M over 5 years to engage with early-stage startups&integrate into their product portfolioUSA INFL

57、ATION REDUCTION ACT(IRA):This act provides funding of$450B+to incentivize R&D and domestic production in cleantechARCELORMITTAL:Launched$100M XCarb Innovation Fund to access&provide a platform for emerging climate technologies19|Where does Canada standFOSTER TALENTDEVELOP LEADING IPCREATE VENTURESSC

58、ALE IMPACTPRODUCE GLOBAL CHAMPIONSCanadian scale ups face real valleys of deathCanada with a strong talent base our workforce has the highest share of adults with a post-secondary degree and a healthy share of those are STEM graduatesCanada boasts among the highest rates of climate tech startups per

59、 capita when compared to peers 12 startups per million versus 8 for the peer averageRelatively thin bench of venture executives experienced in scalingNeed to steer more STEM into climate tech net zero targets will create a global war for this talentSustained and growing gap in private sector R&D act

60、ivity Canada is second-last among 15 country peer set,with US at 4X Canadas level,when adjusted for populationTech development valley of deathScaleup funding valley of deathAt-scale demonstration valley of deathGovernment and higher education R&D is in line with peers,but commercializing research re

61、mains an issueRelatively lower share of larger deals,notably major$50M rounds vs.peer OECD countries Relatively fewer at-scale demonstration projects with quality corporate partners;top Canadian ventures migrating projects abroadCanada boasts 12 of the worlds top 100 cleantech startups according to

62、The Cleantech GroupSolid share of global climate tech venture investment at 2.3%(vs.1.4%of global GDP)PAIN POINTPAIN POINTPAIN POINTNote:Colour denotes perceived severity of pain point20|The Canadian Venture Opportunity:Climate TechSECTION 3:What should Canada do20|The Canadian Venture Opportunity:C

63、limate Tech21|What should Canada doFor discussion:We see some clear action items for ecosystem participantsCORPORATESINVESTORSGOVERNMENTGet the table stakes right:Build clear view of climate technologies critical to delivering your net zero pathwaysMake climate tech top-of-house priority:Create clim

64、ate tech ecosystem outreach plan to optimize your innovation strategy Ramp up R&D spend Partner with startups to develop,pilot,and execute technology Purchase climate tech solutions from scaleups Invest to build new businessesDevelop a clear climate thesis:Build access to advisors and SMEs with a fo

65、cus on underwriting early-stage policy and technology riskReview holistic strategy:Review whole-of-government policy approach to maximize“pull”from climate investments into Canadian climate tech ventures Incent and conduct more R&D:Redouble support mechanisms&direct investments into R&D with coheren

66、t,comprehensive,and segment-specific policiesAttract more demonstration projects&scale-up capital:Leverage innovative policy and financial tools to support major,at-scale projects in climate tech subsectors strategic to Canadian economy Bridge the growth equity gap:Review investment opportunities an

67、d risk/return appetite for global climate technology Focus more on Canada:Dedicate search resources to exploring the under-scouted Canadian space 11312223FOSTER TALENTDEVELOP LEADING IPCREATE VENTURESSCALE IMPACTPRODUCE GLOBAL CHAMPIONSMAINSTREAM ADOPTIONNeed to steer more STEM into climate tech glo

68、bal deficit in talent needed to reach Net ZeroCritical prerequisitesShared ambition and leadership:Inspire collective commitment and action by senior corporate,investor and public leaders across CanadaTOMORROWTo be a Climate Tech superpower,there are three actions Canadians leaders must drive togeth

69、er22|What should Canada do23Develop new approaches to drive at-scale demonstration projects in strategic climate techs:Foster new forms of public-private partnership that bring corporates,investors and policymakers together to make major strategic investments in first-of-their-kind projects1 Canadas

70、 competitors are doubling down on the climate tech opportunity This raises the question of what a more ambitious cross-silo program might look like for our country There are many possibilities,but we think an impactful strategy for Canada would involve these three ingredientsDeep dive on next pageDo

71、uble down on our strengths:Reinforce commitment and increase funding in areas,as shown in this report,where Canada has powerful assets Amp up climate talent programs in universities&co-op programs Boost research collaboration between corporates&government Strengthen multi-stakeholder support for our

72、 early venture programs23|What should Canada doCORPORATESINVESTORSGOVERNMENTSINNOVATORSGOVERNMENTDEEP DIVE New approaches to driving at-scale demonstration projects working together in new waysBRING FOCUS TO CLIMATE STRATEGY Concentrate on the 3-4 climate technologies most strategic for Canadas net

73、zero pathways and long-term economic successMAKE BIGGER BETS Fund major investments in impactful,at-scale,first-of-a-kind projects in the$250M-$2B capex rangeRALLY PRIVATE SECTOR Catalyze greater private-sector engagement especially beyond oil and gas in advancing and expanding climate tech ecosyste

74、m PARTNER MORE EFFECTIVELY Develop new kinds of public-private climate partnerships to share risk and drive implementationGET THE DETAILS RIGHT Leverage innovative support tools from major long-term offtake agreements to contracts for differenceOur ConclusionCanada has the chance to become a world l

75、eader in climate tech innovationsand has already vaulted to a leadership position in some emerging segments.Advancing and sustaining that lead will require scaling and growing promising Canadian companies into true global champions.This will benefit Canada and the planet profoundly helping to cut ca

76、rbon emissions at the accelerated rates needed to ward off the most catastrophic impacts of climate change while also helping to make Canadas economy more competitive and resilient.This opportunity is within Canadas grasp nowbut capturing it will require deeper commitment from and greater collaborat

77、ion with government,corporates and investors.Our research and interviews give us renewed optimism that Canadas climate tech future is bright.But we and all those we spoke to acknowledge that much more work needs to be done.We look forward to continuing that dialog with youand helping to enact Canada

78、s climate tech agenda swiftly.24|What should Canada doAboutBCG GREEN VENTURES BCG Green Ventures is a multi-disciplinary team of strategists,venture builders,engineers and climatologists that harness climate tech expertise and a distinct methodology to build businesses for a net-zero economy.Our exp

79、erts innovate,scale,and invest in climate-focused ventures and solutions that enable corporations to achieve their sustainability goals,reinvent their core business models,and drive sustainable growth.BCG CENTER FOR GROWTH AND INNOVATION ANALYTICS A team of world-class data scientists,intellectual p

80、roperty experts,and network analysts aided by leading-edge tools and proprietary algorithms focused on growth and innovation strategy.BCG CENTRE FOR CANADAS FUTURE BCG established the Centre for Canadas Future for Canadas 150th anniversary in 2017.The Centres mandate is to bring the best of BCGs con

81、sulting capabilities to Canadas most pressing issues,working in partnership with the corporate,non-profit and government sectors.Thank you for the significant contributions from Shan Agrawal,Toni Baldauf,Kate Banting,Karen Bray,Anguel Dimov,Chris Fletcher,Marie Glenn,Rehana Lalani,Safee Mian,Lauren

82、Montpetit,Ross Middleton,Tariq Nanji,Vinay Shandal,Rachit Sharma and Taylor Whitehouse.We would also like to thank the business and public sector leaders who shared their time and insights with us during our interviews.Click here for more on Climate and Sustainability from BCG.The AuthorsMORE ON THI

83、S TOPIC FROM BCGACKNOWLEDGEMENTS25|Youssef Aroub BCG Centre for Canadas FutureSimon-Pierre Monette BCG in MontrealKeith Halliday BCG Centre for Canadas FutureErik Reed BCG in Toronto Janice Horne BCG in OttawaRaju Sarma BCG Green VenturesWendi Backler BCG Center for Growth and Innovation Analytics Pilar Pedrinelli BCG in TorontoParham Peiroo BCG Green Ventures Naomi Desai BCG in TorontoIF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS PUBLICATION OR OUR WORK PLEASE CONTACT PARHAM PEIROO OR KEITH HALLIDAY