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1、Decarbonisation Speedways Final reportJune 20,2023 The introduction of the Fit for 55 package has significantly raised the decarbonisation ambition for Europe,and with that,the need for faster progress in decarbonising end use and the power system.Eurelectric and its members aim to be firmly positio

2、ned in Brussels policy circles as respected and critical partner in Europes decarbonisation agenda.A sound and up-to-date scenario study on accelerated decarbonisation pathways is critical to achieve this.In this study,we aim to provide insight into applying the accelerated decarbonisation ambition

3、of the economy and power sector to the current reality of the power sector.Alternative scenarios towards full decarbonisation are provided,with key milestones in 2030,2040 and 2050,accounting for high electrification expectations and growing focus on sector integration,as well as the uncertainty res

4、ulting from ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply pressures.This study relies on the collaboration with dedicated industry professionals in the European power sector.Many experts contributed actively by providing input and reviews of both the report and the underlying demand framework.We hope tha

5、t this report will contribute to the decision making in a rapidly changing environment.Kristian RubySecretary GeneralEurelectric2Preface by Kristian3OverviewThe Decarbonisation Speedways study focuses on decarbonisation pathways for the European energy sector.The study primarily concentrates on achi

6、eving decarbonisation through direct electrification.By examining the potential of electrification across three main sectors and 10 corresponding subsectors,the studys analysis aims to identify effective paths for realizing full energy sector decarbonisation in the EU27 countries and the United King

7、dom by 2050.The data analysis process comprised two distinct phases.In the first phase,we meticulously assessed the demand side,utilizing the existing Ten-Year Network Development Plan(TYNDP)scenario as our basis.We further refined this scenario by incorporating industry experts input,conducting ext

8、ensive literature research,and integrating the EU Fit for 55 and REPowerEU policy packages.This approach allowed us to create a robust,comprehensive framework for analysing the energy requirements of the different sectors represented in the study,including industry,built environment and mobility.Bui

9、lding on the insights gained from the demand-side analysis,the second phase involved modelling the generation side using the Maon(Model for Assessing and Optimizing the National Power System)model.This advanced modelling tool enabled us to simulate the electricity generation and integration based on

10、 the demand patterns identified in the first phase.This way,the feasibility and implications of different generation options for each scenario were assessed,ultimately leading to the most viable paths for achieving full decarbonisation.The combined findings from our demand-side analysis and the Maon

11、 modelling provide valuable insights into the potential strategies and challenges involved in the transition to a decarbonised energy system in Europe.Role of AccentureIn support of the Decarbonisation Speedways study,Accenture was the knowledge partner and performed the data analysis and modelling

12、efforts in collaboration with Maon.On the basis of Accentures expertise and data-driven insights,Eurelectric and its experts provided a political dimension to this analysis,transforming the research findings into a solid foundation for informed decision-making processes in the pursuit of decarbonisa

13、tion objectives.Any policy references or recommendations included in this study are those of Eurelectric and do not reflect the opinions or views of Accenture.531 TWh-782 TWhGenerated total flexibilityvia demand side response and storage options66%-93%Growth of final electricity demand in 2050 compa

14、red to 20155-7 times more GWOf installed RES capacity in 2050 compared to 2020(71 GW 98 GW per year)75%82%Share of electricity generation by renewable energy sources*in 205038%-41%Increase in energy efficiency in 2050 compared to 201558%-71%Share of electricity in final energy demand in 2050 in the

15、defined scenarios4Executive summaryA decarbonised energy system in Europe in 2050 is possible if we act now:With the FF55-inspired and REPowerEU-inspired scenarios achieving net zero emissions in 2050,and Radical Action scenario even in 2040.Taking clean direct electrification as the main driver for

16、 efficient and effective decarbonisation,almost eliminating fossil fuels in buildings,transport and industry Using hydrogen where it is most effective,under certain ramifications only Acknowledging that different countries have different starting points in the transition,requiring tailored transitio

17、n pathways Fostering adoption of the key technologies per sector:heat pumps in buildings,electric engines in transport and e-boilers and industrial heat pumps in industries Offering flexibility to the power system to provide security of supply and resilience via demand side response and storage opti

18、ons Investing in the strengthening and digitisation of distribution&transmission power grid and in new clean generation capacities Collaborating on market design fit for purpose,improved financing frameworks,grid reinforcements&digitisation,faster permitting&spatial planning,focus on skills&training

19、 and a cohesive industrial policy Keeping in mind that the benefits of a decarbonised energy system outweigh the associated costs,taking into account the long-term effects of climate changeNote:ranges reflect the values in 2050 for the FF55-inspired and Radical Action scenario*RES includes solar PV,

20、onshore wind,offshore wind,hydro power and other RES5Content01Three Decarbonisation Speedways Scenarios02Massive clean electrification is the main driver of decarbonisation in three speedways03The power sector needs to transform in order to drive decarbonisation in the energy system04All scenarios c

21、all for an acceleration of installing new,clean electricity generation sources 05Integrating high shares of variable renewable power sources requires sufficient flexibility06Further investments are required to reach the decarbonisation goals07AppendixRecent developments require an update for the Eur

22、opean pathways to decarbonisation:Decarbonisation SpeedwaysGeopolitical tensionsHigher uncertainty due to conflict in UkraineNew policy developmentsREPowerEU policy package with increased ambitions compared to FF55New technological developmentsi.e.Hydrogen,E-Mobility,Batteries,DSR,Heat pumps and mor

23、e Three Decarbonisation speedways for 2030,2040 and 2050 in EU27+UKThe scenarios reflect ambitious decarbonisation trajectories,more ambitious than many of the scenarios published before the energy crisis in 2022.6Three decarbonisation speedways are defined:Fit for 55-inspired,REPowerEU-inspired and

24、 Radical ActionIntroducing the three scenariosNet annual emissions EU27+UK(Mton CO2eq.)2020203020402050Million tonnes of CO2Equivalent19905,621Climate neutral2,0802,0802,52955%reduction63%reduction63%reductionNote:the double lines indicate a break in the axis or trend line.This indicates that the sp

25、ace of the graph is not to scale to the numbers.Scope:Including international transportDecarbonisation speedways presents three scenarios that illustrate a future where serious and immediate climate responsibility is taken by the EU and its member states.However,it is not a prediction of the future.

26、Decarbonisation Speedways is the successor of Eurelectrics 2018 study,Decarbonisation Pathways.Based on the most recent political and market trends,the scenarios show speedways of achieving climate neutrality in or before 2050 and achieving already very ambitious targets in 2030.The main sectors in

27、scope are buildings,transport and industries.Agriculture and other are modified more simply and not always reported as the energy demand here is small.The scenarios are inspired on two policy packages,but not necessarily aligned in specific numbers with public scenarios.The insights resulting from t

28、hese scenarios provide a roadmap to further detail what constraints limit the pathways towards carbon neutrality and provides guidance on how these bottlenecks can be eliminated.Description of the three scenarios1.The FF55-inspired is based on TYNDP Distributed Energy(DE)2022 dataset,modified based

29、on literature research and expert judgement.FF55-inspired is in line with the European Commissions ambitious targets in the Fit For 55 package,achieving carbon neutrality in 2050.2.REPowerEU-inspired is closely aligned to REPowerEU policy plan and the latest targets to accelerate both European indep

30、endence from Russian energy and transition to decarbonisedenergy sources.This results in higher electrification and decarbonisation in 2030 and a partial relaxation of the decarbonisation pace between 2030 and 2050,reaching net zero in 2050.3.The Radical Action scenario reflects an accelerated path

31、towards net zero in 2040.Although clearly demanding,it aims to describe where accelerated decarbonisation in line the REPowerEU ambition would lead to after 2030.Until 2030,the scenario is in line with REPowerEU.After 2030 however,Radical Action continues the trend from REPowerEU-inspired to achieve

32、 net zero in 2040.It can be seen as a stress test scenario,showing the implications of accelerated action and what is needed for system if the pace of REPowerEU-inspired is continued.7European emissions need to decrease faster in order to comply with the latest political goals to reach at least 55%r

33、eduction in 2030 compared to 199005001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,500199019952000200520102015202020302035204020452050-55%2025HistoricFitFor55REPowerEURadical ActionSources:UNFCC-Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data-Detailed data by Party(2022)IEA CO2 emissions 2021 for relative increase i

34、n 2021(2022)2,08063%reduction2,0802,52955%reduction63%reductionLegend:Million tonnes of CO2EquivalentTotal aggregated annual greenhouse gas emissions including LULUCF for EU27+UK(Mt CO equivalent)FF55-inspired and REPowerEU-inspired offer a translation of existing policy packages.Radical Action show

35、s the drastic implications if the REPowerEU trajectory would be continued after 2030,reaching net-zero in 2040.The scenarios do not project the future,but aim to display what are the implications of accelerated decarbonisation via electrification.Scenarios not aim to predict the future8Note:energy u

36、sage is from the demand framework from the TYNDP dataset,used as base for the final energy demand for the scenario development.2015 Is used to remain close to the dataset of the study.970%of the final energy demand in transport,buildings and industry relies on fossil fuels.This is the main target fo

37、r decarbonisationSources 1.Eurostat&EEA-Greenhouse gas emissions by source(2023)Share of European emissions by source1(2020)Overview of energy consumption by energy carrier per sector in EU27+UK in TWh (2015)TWh27BuildingsIndustry7114Transport5,036 TWh3,189 TWh4,564 TWhElectricityOthersBiomassMethan

38、eLiquidsSolidsEnergy industriesFuel combustion by energy user(ex.Transport)TransportAgricultureIndustrial processes and product useWasteDescription of emission categories1Energy industries:Emissions from fuel combustion and to a certain extent fugitive emissions from energy industries,for example in

39、 public electricity,heat production and petroleum refining.Fuel combustion by users(excl.transport):Emissions from fuel combustion by manufacturing industries and construction and small scale fuel combustion,for example,space heating and hot water production for households,commercial buildings,agric

40、ulture and forestry.Transport:Emissions from fuel combustion of domestic and international aviation,road transport,railways and domestic navigation.Agriculture:This includes among others emissions from livestock-enteric fermentation greenhouse gases that are produced when animals digest their food,e

41、missions from manure management and emissions from agricultural soils.Industrial processes:Emissions occurring from chemical reactions during the production of e.g.cement,glass,etc10During the first phase the final energy per sector was defined.In phase 2 the electricity wholesale market is simulate

42、d for the three scenariosNote:see the appendix section and the methodology report for more extensive overview of the methods used for the scenarios and the modelling.Phase 1Phase 2Developed three scenarios including the finale energy demand of the seven energy carriers for three largest sectors in t

43、he target years.Starting point was the TYNDP 2022 dataset-Distributed Energy scenario.Modifications were made based on literature studies,policy packages and expert interviews.Focus:on final energy demandFit for 55 inspired2030,2040,2050REPowerEU-inspired2030,2040,2050Radical Action2030,2040,2050Hyd

44、rogenBuildingsMethaneLiquidsSolidsBiomassOthersTransportIndustryElectricityVisualization of the final energy demand frameworkFocus:on power sector,the generation mix for all scenarios via modelling the European electricity wholesale market:Model inputThe electricity demand(from phase 1)The emission

45、constraints(from phase 1)Generation capacities(RES&conventional)Flexibility capacitiesHourly load profiles per bidding zonesNet Transfer capacities between bidding zonesNon-exhaustive overview of variablesCapacities per technologyModel outputDispatch per technology EmissionsFlexibility activatedNTC

46、saturationsEnergy not servedEnergy curtailedFuel consumptionAverage costs for electricity generationNon-exhaustive overview of variablesDispatch per technology11ContentContent01Three Decarbonisation Speedways Scenarios02Massive clean electrification is the main driver of decarbonisation in three spe

47、edways03The power sector needs to transform in order to drive decarbonisation in the energy system04All scenarios call for an acceleration of installing new,clean electricity generation sources 05Integrating high shares of variable renewable power sources requires sufficient flexibility06Further inv

48、estments are required to reach the decarbonisation goals07Appendix12Three driving forces will play a key role in decarbonisation,direct electrification,energy efficiency and decarbonised energy sourcesThree main driving forces of decarbonisation in this study Sources:1.ACEEE(2019)2.UNFCCC(2021)3.Eur

49、opean energy directive(2021)Note:Regarding final energy demand in 2050:Direct electrification+bioenergy,hydrogen,heat+CCUS(fossils)=100%of energy mix.Exception:REPowerEU-inspired sums up to 101%due to rounding at whole percentages.4.IEA(2022)5.Schneider Electric(2022)Direct electrification of all se

50、ctors is the most important enabler of decarbonisation in this study,due to its potential as a carbon-free energy source,and the large energy efficiency gains.When processes are electrified,more efficiency gains are realized compared to liquid,solid or gaseous energy sources.1 The development of hea

51、t pumps,storage-and electric transport technologies are crucial in the coming decades for increase electronification.1.Direct ElectrificationEnergy efficiency is driven by fuel switching,energy management services and behaviour4.New technologies and innovations enable increased efficiencies in all a

52、reas.Regarding fuel switching,electrification is one of the major contributors since The quantified efficiency gains in the scenarios largely result from additional electrification on top of the TYNDP dataset.Active Energy Management and related services help to save energy by making smarter choices

53、 driven by data collection and integration5.Behaviour helps to decrease energy demand.Current energy prices,increasing climate awareness and regulation drive consumers and companies to use energy more consciously.2.Energy efficiency Bioenergy,clean hydrogen and waste heat are included as decarbonise

54、d energy carriers.Bioenergy provides carbon neutral energy as the emitted GHGs are cancelled out by the carbon sequestration through the process of photosynthesis.While being aware of the evolving regulatory environment for bioenergy2,3,it contributes to net zero goals.Clean hydrogen and its derivat

55、ives can play a crucial role in hard-to-abate sectors,(heavy transport and heavy industry).Finally,geothermal,solar thermal energy and ambient heat can provide clean and efficient source of energy within buildings and industries.Since the electronification ambition increases with each of the speedwa

56、ys,we expect less decarbonised energy carriers in Radical Action compared to the other two speedways.3.Alternative decarbonised energy sourcesIntensity of driving forces per scenarioPercentage of direct electrification in mix of final energy demandPercentage final energy demand reduction due to ener

57、gy efficiency(compared to 2015)Percentage of alternative decarbonised energy sources in final energy demand201520502050201520501.FF55-inspired22%58%-38%16%38%2.REPowerEU-inspired22%61%-39%16%34%3.Radical Action22%71%-41%16%27%Decarbonised energy share decreases with increased electrification ambitio

58、n13All three scenarios outline electrification strategies enabling further efficiency gains to replace carbon intensive carriersFinal energy demand FF55-inspired(TWh)To achieve the decarbonisation goals for each scenario,all sectors must be largely electrified,and low-carbon hydrogen or bio-based en

59、ergy carriers must replace fossil fuels where direct electrification is not an option.Direct electrification is considered the main route for decarbonisation.Furthermore,efficiency gains via electrification lead to a reduction of total energy needed.Indirect electrification is only favored for hard

60、to abate sectors,such as heavy industries and heavy transport.Final energy demand REPowerEU-inspired(TWh)Final energy demand Radical Action(TWh)7,00001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0008,0009,00010,00011,00012,00013,00014,0007%7%4%11%0%5%44%7%2%13%20408%6%20156%2%2%8%58%5%20503%7%0%13,50711,8549,9292%22%

61、21%5%40%5%6%2%5%8%1%32%14%3%29%20308,431-38%TWh07%5%12%0%1%6%48%2%2%9%20409%20153%6%1%3%3%9%61%2%20507%0%2%13,50711,4299,56022%21%5%40%6%6%8%9%6%1%35%5%3%27%20308%8,292-39%05%5%9%0%2%7%59%1%6%20406%5%20153%3%3%10%71%1%20507%0%2%13,50711,4298,49522%21%5%40%6%6%8%9%1%1%35%5%3%27%20306%7,917-41%TWh1.Ag

62、riculture and other sectors are included in the scenarios but not extensively researched and modified 2.Does not include feedstock and non-energy use.Includes domestic and international transport.3.Others include heat for example solar thermal energy 4.Assumption:2%of methane is biomethane in 2015(e

63、xcl.electricity generation)calculated via:Scarlat et al(2018)5.Assumption:5%of liquids are biofuels in 2015:Transport and environment(2021)OthersBiomassBiomethaneLiquid biofuelsSynthetic methaneSyntethic liquidsHydrogenElectricityNatural gasCoalOil7,0001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0008,0009,00010,0001

64、1,00012,00013,00014,000TWh7,0001,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0008,0009,00010,00011,00012,00013,00014,000712015FF55-insp.REPowerEU-insp.Radical Action2,8023,5613,7673,767Buildings sees the largest absolute electricity demand,relative growth is the highest in transport.Hydrogen mainly in heavy industries

65、 and heavy transport2030Final electricity demand 2030 and 2050-TWh 712015FF55-insp.REPowerEU-insp.Radical Action2,8024,4674,7005,17720502015FF55-insp.REPowerEU-insp.Radical Action158175175Final hydrogen demand 2030 and 2050-TWh8181852263203363683673852015FF55-insp.REPowerEU-insp.Radical Action675768

66、806205014201518FF55-insp.15REPowerEU-insp.15Radical Action2,7691535957957205020302030Final natural gas demand 2030 and 2050-TWh 1.851990451420152FF55-insp.000REPowerEU-insp.Radical Action2,76916Note:Hydrogen is mainly used for heavy transport and hard to abate industries.Hydrogen values in buildings

67、 are lowered compared to TYNDP dataset.However,not removed completely,since it is considered an option for buildings were electrification is less efficient due to lack of insulation.Some countries already started projects to heat buildings with(blended)hydrogen.See also IEAhydrogen outlook(2021)Note

68、 that Y-axis scales differ per graph14All speedways rely heavily on electrification of demand as main route for decarbonisationAll speedways rely heavily on electrification of demandAll speedways rely heavily on massive electrification of the demand sectors buildings,transport and industry.03,0003,5

69、004,0004,5005,0005,5006,000FF55REPowerEURadical ActionHistorical trend*+93%+74%+66%+40%Growth in final electricity demand of sectors in 2015-2050 EU27+UK(TWh)Main technologies driving increase electrification in demandHeat pumps drive electric heating of homes,instead of natural gas fired boilers.De

70、pending on the scenario in 2050 between 231 million(FF55-inspired)and 276 million(Radical Action)heat pumps will be installed throughout EU27+UK.For an overview of the abated emissions of heat pumps,see appendix section on abatement.Electric engines replace internal combustion engines fueled by gaso

71、line in road transport,realizing higher efficiencies.In 2050,it is assumed that,depending on the penetration rate,there will be between 220 million(FF55-inspired)and 250 million(Radical Action)electrically powered light vehicles.Electric boilers,engines and industrial heat pumps replace fossil fuels

72、 in industrial processes.High industry heat is more difficult to abate but technological developments are bringing this closer.*If historical YoY growth rate of electricity demand is continued(calculated using Eurostat data,extrapolated using the average annual growth rate between 2000 and 2015.Howe

73、ver,it should be noted that the growth stagnates from 2010 onwards.TWh15Demand increase 2015 205016Decarbonisation in the buildings sector is driven by electrification in all three scenarios,hydrogen has a minor roleFinal energy demand in buildings for all scenarios(TWh)Key insights&main driversThe

74、energy demand in buildings declines as we electrify by utilizing heat pumps and increase energy efficiency through smart implementation of technology and insulation of buildings Heat pumps achieve an efficiency of about 2.9 times the efficiency of a traditional boiler running on natural gas1,2Curren

75、tly,most energy in buildings is supplied by methane,expected to rapidly decrease looking forward to 2030 and 2040 and will be completely phased out in 2050New technologies will foster direct electrification substituting demand for methaneElectrification of buildings via heat pumps,combined with dist

76、rict heating networks,account for large share of the methane reduction in 2050 District heating and/or cooling will play an increasing role for buildings.Sources differ per country,where some countries still rely on coal,other countries will increasingly use sources as solar thermal,geothermal and a

77、qua thermal to heat or cool the water in the system.This can be used in combination with seasonal thermal storage,residual heat from industrial processes and/or heat pumps.District cooling will become increasingly important as an alternative for air conditioning,due the expected temperature increase

78、 as result of climate change.The energy sources used for district heating are included in the final energy demand of the respective energy carriers.Notes:Electricity for hydrogen production is not included.Others includes heat(i.e.solar thermal).Decarbonisedenergy carriers include bio-methane,bio-fu

79、els,synthetic methane,synthetic fuels and biomass.Efficiency heat pump:1 kwh electricity to 2.6 kwh heat(Seasonal Performance Factor 2.6)1,5Efficiency gas boiler:1 kwh natural gas to 0.9 kwh heat418824827289333289333233717545556458625596309622438272015221482030712040811520502214820307111520408102050

80、2214820307820218204085165020505,0374,0113,4733,0323,8663,3733,0383,8663,2683,03002.5672.0861.2102.1382.1451.7262.3022.3142.2482.5322.5462.248FF55-inspired Radical ActionREPowerEU-inspiredThe buildings sector accounts for 36%of the GHG emissions in Europe3.Heating is the largest contributor to reside

81、ntial GHG-emissions,followed by cooking and water heating4.Currently buildings are primarily heated using fossil energy sources,such as natural gas which accounted for 37%of the energy demand in buildings in 2015.Below an overview of the buildings sector is depicted with the distribution of the most

82、 important categories of energy carriers over time,for the three scenarios.Sources:1.Accenture(2021)2.Accenture expert interview(2022)3.European climate foundation(2022)4.Statista(2018)5.Decerna(2019)ElectricityH2DecarbonisedEnergy carriersOthersFossils2%71%FF55-inspired2%77%REPowerEU-inspiredShare

83、direct electrification and hydrogen in final energy demand buildings all scenarios(2050)TWhRadical Action3%84%Share direct electrification and hydrogen in final energy demand transport all scenarios(2050)15%48%11%46%Electric transport displaces fossil liquids by both an increased tank-to-wheel effic

84、iency and the usage of electricityFinal energy demand in transport for different energy carriers(TWh)Key insights,main drivers and challenges Sources:1.EDFEnergy(2022)2.Zuccari et al(2019)3.The guardian(2022)4.ERTRAC(2019)5.WoodMackenzie(2020)6.EEA(2021)4.0452.8571.0703252.5597111482.559403448750906

85、6048531.0746248537624041362261623201783362916729893096991.0243097331.0647102015152030204020503220302040205032203020404320504,5653,9122,7852,1443,7532,6472,1173,7532,0761,846FF55-inspired Radical ActionREPowerEU-inspired Comparing the different sectors for end use,the largest energy efficiency gains

86、are achieved in the transport sector,with at least a 53%reduction of final energy demand in 2050 compared to 2015.Efficiency gains are mainly driven by the transition from an internal combustion engine to an electrically powered motor,as the energy efficiency for an electric road vehicle is over 3 t

87、imes as efficient compared to an ICE vehicle1,2.Road transport has the biggest potential to electrify,with 79%in 2050 for the FF55-inspired scenario.Road transport includes motorcycles,passenger vehicles,light-and heavy trucks and buses.While passenger cars and city buses are most likely to become l

88、argely electric,challenges remain to electrify heavy trucks that transport cargo over long distances.Currently 80%of freight transport travel long haul(150 km)4.Electric trucks manufacturers currently claim ranges of 250-350 km5.Technological developments indicate ranges of 500 km will be feasible i

89、n the future with a 700-KWh battery capacity.This would be sufficient for the majority of the operations when combined with a dense network of fast charging infrastructure,meaning most of the road transport can be electrified in the long run6.For aviation and marine shipping,there are two main chall

90、enges:(1)these large vessels and aircrafts have an economic lifetime of several decades and therefore it is unlikely a very large proportion of the fleet will be replaced by electric alternatives once the technology is there(2)to electrify these sectors engineering challenges remain3.Rail transport

91、is already largely electrified and could partially replace other modes of transportation for passengers and cargo.However,geographical and socio-economic challenges hamper the expansion of the current railway network in Europe.17ElectricityH2DecarbonisedEnergy carriersFossilsFF55-inspiredREPowerEU-i

92、nspired18%58%TWhNotes:Electricity for hydrogen production is not included.Others includes heat(i.e.solar thermal).Decarbonisedenergy carriers include bio-methane,bio-fuels,synthetic methane,synthetic fuels and biomass.Radical Action18Within transport,road and rail transport largely electrify towards

93、 2050,in marine and aviation hydrogen is introduced as an alternative Road 2015 to 2050 in three scenarios Aviation 2015 to 2050 in three scenariosMarine 2015 to 2050 in three scenarios3.3571006221794823848101420151150FF55-inspired(2050)1050REPowerEU-inspired(2050)1100Radical Action(2050)3,3731,0099

94、91979-71%25117010110110100201560FF55-inspired61REPowerEU-inspired(2050)70Radical Action(2050)95109109108+14%Rail 2015 to 2050 in three scenarios 5002522221336974132139000201525FF55-inspired(2050)3131REPowerEU-inspired(2050)3618Radical Action(2050)500420416326-35%597507456273778069697900201530FF55-in

95、spired(2050)REPowerEU-inspired(2050)Radical Action(2050)597606601433-27%Source:1.UNCTAD(2021)2.European Commission(2021)ElectricityHydrogenMethaneLiquidsTWhTWhTWhTWhWithin road transport,high efficiency gains are expected resulting from the superior efficiency of electrical engines.For the FF55-insp

96、ired speedway,220 million electric passenger vehicles are expected on the European roads by 2050.The agreement of the EU from 2022 to ensure that all new cars and vans registered in the EU will be zero-emission vehicles by 2035,is an important step forward4.The sector is expected to grow as more rai

97、lways are built and travelers choose a railway option more often,resulting in additional demand for energy and hence,for electricity.Railway transport is already largely electrified and is expected to almost completely electrify by 2050.Hydrogen plays an important role via indirect electrification.L

98、ower demand for energy is expected due to a reduction of fossil fuel shipment needed as result of the energy transition.Currently,40%of all products transported by global shipping are fossil fuels(coal,oil,gas)1.Policies for sustainable aviation fuels will need to be further developed2.Aviation can

99、be partially electrified,but mainly for short distances.Hydrogen is an option,but synthetic-or bio-fuels could offer more possibilities with higher energy density.Policies for sustainable aviation fuels will need to be further developed3.Source:3.European commission(2021)4.European Commission(2022)T

100、he industries sees a decline in all scenarios of total energy demand.Electricity is expected to contribute mainly to decarbonisation in the light industries.For the heavier industries,hydrogen plays a more important role.19Light industries reach electrification rates of 74%.Heavy industries are the

101、hard-to-abate sectors,with 31%hydrogen in 2050Results scenarios for industry in the three scenarios over time(in TWh)Examples of direct and indirect electrification in the industryHumber industrial cluster,United KingdomThe Humber area around Yorkshire is the largest industrial area in the United Ki

102、ngdom with energy intensive industries and hard to abate emissions,like steel,refining and manufacturing.In total,this industrial cluster emits 10 million tonnes of CO2per year,which is more than 2%of the total GHG emission from the UK.Collaboration projects in Humber area1*1.Zero Carbon Humber:12 p

103、artners working together to produce low and zero carbon hydrogen,the development of CCS network,and creating a shared hydrogen infrastructure.The goal is to be the first net zero cluster in 2040.2.Gigastack:to advance economically viable zero carbon hydrogen production with a cross sectoral coalitio

104、n of Orsted,Phillips 66 and ITM power.A 100 MW electrolyser is planned to supply 30%of the refinerys existing hydrogen demand.The consortium will also develop a blueprint for deploying scalable electrolysers in the rest of the country.3.Humber zero:1 km of the coast of the Humber river,the main part

105、ners Phillips 66,Uniper and Vitols VPI Immingham power plant will collaborate to create a network of hydrogen and CO2pipelines,to connect the energy,housing and industry locations.The infrastructure is expected to be operational around 2026.HeavyLightMedium2%74%17%40%31%25%FF55-inspired Radical Acti

106、onREPowerEU-inspiredDirect electrification and hydrogen for sub-industries in 2050 FF55 inspired Sources:1.WEF(2021)2.Accenture(2020)3.Eurofer(2022)*Non exhaustiveSteel production via Electric Arc FurnacesIn steel two main production processes can be distinguished:1.Electric Arc Furnaces(EAF)driven

107、by electricity and using usually scrap steel as raw material.2.Blast Furnace-Basic Oxygen Furnace(BF-BOF),using coal as to bring liquid iron up to 1,500 degrees Celsius.iron ore is used as base raw material.In Europe in 2019,55%of the steel produced is still via BF-BOF.However,EAF requires approxima

108、tely 20%of the energy compared to BF-BOF and allows for the usage of scrap steel as input material,instead of iron ore as raw material3.When combined with low-carbon electricity,this can provide significant emission reductions for the steel sector.This can be done via for example specific Power Purc

109、hasing Agreements(PPA)with wind or solar park operators.1.5198783866882486883424424183584424193594422932513224455145284885865014884203123053683043673343851.0051.1841.2551.3331.2101.2831.3621.2101.4111.56702015121203020402720501212030204011205012120301142040320503,1883,0702,8782,6132,9502,8402,6002,9

110、502,5732,517ElectricityH2DecarbonisedEnergy carriersOthersFossilsTWhNotes:Electricity for hydrogen production is not included.Others includes heat(i.e.solar thermal).Decarbonisedenergy carriers include bio-methane,bio-fuels,synthetic methane,synthetic fuels and biomass.ReportScenarioYear publishedEN

111、EL foundations CL decarbonisation scenario 2020European commission-A clean planet for all ELEC,1.5 TECH,Baseline 2018TYNDP 2022 Distributed energy 2022Decarbonisation pathways Scenario 32018EMBER New Generation-Technical Reportall202220300123456ElectrificationFF55FF55REPowerEUREPowerEURadical Action

112、Radical ActionECEC Elec1.5 TECHENEL FoundationTYNDP DED-pathwaysFF55FF55REPowerEUREPowerEUFF55EC 1.5 TECHREPowerEUREPowerEUEC ElecRadical ActionENEL FoundationRadical ActionRadical Action1.5 TECHTYNDP DEENEL FoundationECD-pathwaysTYNDP DETYNDP DED-pathwaysTYNDP DETYNDP DEEMBER TechFF55EMBER SystemEM

113、BER StatedRadical ActionOur study sets ambitious electrification targets,comparable to scenarios from the European Commission and other studies 2050Decarbonisation Speedways aims for high electrification,comparable to similar studies that were conducted in the previous years.The graph below displays

114、 the electrification rates of our three scenarios for three main sectors compared to scenarios from relevant studies.Three scenarios from the European Commissions study A Clean Planet for all were used along with the TYNDP DE scenario,the ENEL Foundations CL decarbonisation scenario,EMBER studies on

115、 European Clean Power Pathways and the previous Eurelectric study,Decarbonisation Pathways.For buildings,TYNDP DE deviates most from our scenarios due to increased electrification rates after expert interviews.The transport sector has different interpretations in the various subsectors in scope,resu

116、lting in less equal comparisons.EC scenarios in transport have lower electrification rates,due to the higher total energy demand.Sources:1.European Commission(2018)2.ENEL(2020)3.Eurelectric(2018)4.EMBER(2022)2030205020502030Benchmarking of scenarios on electrification rate in Buildings,Transport and

117、 Industry 2030&205020Radical Action Decarbonisation Speedways scenarios REPowerEUFit for 55 EC Baseline EC 1.5 TECH EC ELEC EMBER Stated PolicyTYNDP Distributed Energy Decarbonisation Pathways EMBER Technology Driven EMBER System Change Benchmark scenarios ENEL CL decarbonisation Note:not every stud

118、y published a value on each section,therefore not every study is shown in all sections ReportScenarioYear publishedENEL Foundation CL decarbonisation scenario 2020European commission-A clean planet for all ELEC,1.5 TECH,Baseline 2018TYNDP 2022 Distributed energy 2022Eurelectric Decarbonisation pathw

119、ays Scenario 32018EMBER New Generation-Technical ReportTechnology Driven,System Change,Stated Policy 2022IEA World Energy Outlook 2022APS2022ENTSO-E Vision-2022Shell Scenarios Sky-2018ETIP Getting fit for 55 and set for 2050-20212030Absolute TWh of final electricity demand per sector are significant

120、,but within the range of other studies2050Sources:1.European Commission(2018)2.ENEL(2020)3.Eurelectric(2018)4.ETIP(2021)5.European Commission(2020)6.European Commission(2011)7.ENTSO-E Vision(2022):estimated from figure 8.Shell Sky scenario refers to whole Europe.9.IEA(2022)refers to European Union 1

121、0.EMBER(2022)203020502050Benchmarking of scenarios on final electricity demand in Buildings,Transport and Industry 2030&2050(TWh)01203,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,500FF55FF55Radical ActionEC baseEC baseTYNDP DEEC(2011)D-pathwaysShell sky scenarioEC 1.5 TECHFF55EC ELECREPowerEURadica

122、l ActionENTSO-E VisionENTSO-E VisionEMBER Tech.REPowerEUEmber SystemIEA APSIEA APSEMBER StatedTYNDP DEETIP20502030All sector combined 2030Electricity demand in TWh02004006008001.0001.2001.4001.6001.8002.0002.2002.4002.60001356D-pathwaysTYNDP DETYNDP DEFF55FF55REPowerEUREPowerEURadical ActionElectric

123、ity demand in TWhENELENELTYNDP DEFF55D-pathwaysTYNDP DEFF55FF55FF55REPowerEUREPowerEUREPowerEUREPowerEURadical ActionRadical ActionD-pathwaysTYNDP DERadical ActionTYNDP DEEMBER Tech.EMBER SystemRadical ActionRadical ActionDecarbonisation Speedways scenarios Benchmark scenarios Radical Action REPower

124、EUFit for 55EC Baseline EC 1.5 TECH EC ELEC ENEL CL decarbonisation TYNDP Distributed Energy Decarbonisation Pathways ETIP(based on FF55 package,excl.UK)European Commission(2011)scenario 6 Shell sky scenario ENTSO-E VisionEMBER Technology DrivenEMBER System ChangeEMBER Stated PolicyIEA APSNote:defin

125、itions of electricity demand differ per study.Ember uses electricity demand as total TWh final demand.EC:Share of energy carriers in final energy consumption.Hence differences in the benchmark are present due to variation in exact demarcation of scope.2122Content01Three Decarbonisation Speedways Sce

126、narios02Massive clean electrification is the main driver of decarbonisation in three speedways03The power sector needs to transform in order to drive decarbonisation in the energy system04All scenarios call for an acceleration of installing new,clean electricity generation sources 05Integrating high

127、 shares of variable renewable power sources requires sufficient flexibility06Further investments are required to reach the decarbonisation goals07Appendix23The impact of direct electrification to drive decarbonisation in the complete energy system,is impacted by the regional differences among countr

128、iesRegional differences apply and define future trajectoriesMaltaLithuaniaTurkeyCyprusPolandNetherlandsEstoniaIrelandGreeceItalyGermanyBulgariaUnited KingdomPortugalLatviaHungaryRomaniaSpainCroatiaSloveniaBelgiumDenmarkSlovakiaAustriaLuxembourgFinlandFranceSwitzerlandSwedenFossil fuelsNuclearRenewab

129、lesThe Decarbonisation Speedways put emphasis on electrification of all demand sectors and their subsectors.By driving as much processes within these sectors as possible on electricity,no direct GHGs are emitted which is needed to achieve the EUs decarbonisation targets.However,to achieve a net-zero

130、 economy in 2050 or before,the generation of this carbon-free energy carrier cannot emit any GHGs either.Therefore,many countries in scope require need to fundamentally change their electricity generation mix so that climate neutrality can be reached.While Sweden has already phased out almost all fo

131、ssils in its electricity generation mix,other countries such as Lithuania,Poland and the Netherlands have some work to do between now and 2050.Note that countries cannot be compared one-on-one due to factors such as share of(heavy)industry,geographical(dis)advantages for electricity production and e

132、conomic differences.100%Source:2.Our world in data(2021)Percentage of electrification22%2015 Direct electrification EU27+UKTurkey16%Direct electrification rate per country in EU27+UK1(2015)Electricity production by source per country2(2021)Source:1.TYNDP Distributed energy scenario-(2022).Note:this

133、source is taken since it was starting point of the study.24The carbon intensity of power needs to drop further in order to realize the decarbonisation goals in Europe via electrificationCarbon intensity of electricity generation per country(g CO2eq./kWh)Decrease of carbon intensity over time in EU27

134、+UK(gCO2eq./kWh)Average carbon intensity of EU27+UK already decreased substantially.Between 2000 and 2021 a reduction of 39%was realized in gram per kWh of electricity generated.FF55-inspired and REPowerEU-inspired reach a net-zero power sector around 2040.In case of earlier desired decarbonisation,

135、CCUS can be applied to eliminate the last remaining emissions in an earlier stage(See appendix section).However,the feasibility of CCUS remains questionable.02004006008001.0001.2001.4001.6001.800BulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzechiaDenmarkLatviaItalyLithuaniaIrelandLuxembourgHungaryMaltaGreeceNetherlandsFran

136、cePolandEstoniaPortugalFinlandRomaniaGermanySlovakiaAustriaSloveniaEU-27SpainBelgiumSwedenUnited Kingdom19902020Strong reductions in emission intensity have already been realized within the EU,achieving a reduction of 54%between 1990 and 2020.However,further decrease is required to achieve decarboni

137、sation of the complete energy system via electrification.gCO2eq.per kWhgCO2eq.per kWhSource:European Environment Agency GHG emission intenstity of electricity generation in Europe(2022)The power sector enables both the direct electrification and the indirect electrification of final energy demand fo

138、r various sectors7921.4344831.0111.5394831.5391.63605001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,5003,08120203,79714920304,37620404,85620504,00220304,59520405,09120504,00220305,0182040TWh20503,0813,9465,1686,2905,6255,6066,6304,4856,5577,2614,485Electricity DemandElectricity

139、 Demand for P2GFinal&Power-2-Gas Electricity Demand for all Scenarios and target years in EU27+UK (TWh/year)FF55-inspiredREPowerEU-inspiredRadical ActionThe direct electrification of sectors such as heat and transport will lead to a significant increase in the final electricity demand.However,there

140、are also sectors that cannot be decarbonised through direct electrification and will rely on the supply of synthetic gases and fuels.Accordingly,the power sector will also need to assist in the indirect electrification of individual sectors.Historic1Sources:1.EMBER(2023)Hydrogen The most dominant P2

141、G energy carrier for indirect electrification in this study is hydrogen.Clenar hydrogen is in this report defined as hydrogen produced without emissions.Electricity Demand for P2G is based on the assumption that of the overall hydrogen demand approximately 50%will be imported.The electrolyser effici

142、ency will increase from 69%in 2030 to 74%in 2050.Further details can be found in the hydrogen appendix section and the methodology report.2526Content01Three Decarbonisation Speedways Scenarios02Massive clean electrification is the main driver of decarbonisation in three speedways03The power sector n

143、eeds to transform in order to drive decarbonisation in the energy system04All scenarios call for an acceleration of installing new,clean electricity generation sources 05Integrating high shares of variable renewable power sources requires sufficient flexibility06Further investments are required to r

144、each the decarbonisation goals07AppendixTo generate the needed electricity while at the same time decarbonising the power system,all scenarios call for a strong increase in RES capacitiesInstalled capacity(GW)FF55-inspiredtotal capacityREPowerEU-inspiredtotal capacityRadical Actiontotal capacity2020

145、total capacitySources:EMBER(2023)Installed RES capacity(GW)Others include oil and small-scale CHP;Other RES include geothermal,maritime,biomass etc.Note:gas capacities indicated in light grey include turbines for natural gas,hydrogen and biomethane.Natural gas is phased out in the power sector after

146、 2040.01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000GW5%3%2%81%20304%10%1%9%85%20403%10%1%86%20505%2%10%2%81%20304%2%11%11%20403%2%78%20305%3%13%12%2%84%80%20404%205013%6%1%83%1%20502.1783,4844,0912.1702,9333,6481,8122,5843.25782%NuclearCoalGasOthersRES02004006008001,0001,200GW11%12%23%4%50%20201,0490100200300400500600

147、GW34%5%28%25%8%20205272705001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000GW29%11%46%11%3%203027%10%53%7%3%204027%10%55%6%2%205028%10%50%9%3%203027%10%54%10%11%50%9%2%3%55%203028%10%6%7%6%20402%1%204027%11%27%55%5%205054%28%20501.4032.0742.6861.7612.4233.0761.7682.9743.5201%Other RESHydroPVOffshoreOnshore28Fas

148、ter RES rollout will be essential to meet the capacity demand.Especially solar PV,onshore wind and offshore wind will drive the growthTo reach these renewable capacity targets,the expansion of solar,onshore and offshore needs to be accelerated significantly compared to historical growth rates.Source

149、s for historic values:1.EMBER(2023)Note:2020 year is used to match complete scope for all countries and technologies.Solar PVWind offshoreWind onshoreIn all scenarios,it is recognisable that a functioning,decarbonised electricity system requires a massive magnitude of PV and Wind capacities.The tota

150、l necessary aggregated wind and PV capacity grows from 2,485 GW in FF55-inspired to 3,287 GW in Radical Action in 2050.3Note:for historical growth rates the values between 2000-2020 are taken,since installed RES capacities in 2000 had limited scale:solar PV:0.18 GW,wind on-shore:5.84 GW wind off-sho

151、re 0.05 GW(Eurostat 2022).1,473 GW(44.1 GW/a)FF55-inspired284 GW(8.6 GW/a)728 GW(18.4 GW/a)Radical ActionREPowerEU-inspired334 GW(10.3 GW/a)400 GW(12.5 GW/a)1,683 GW(51.1 GW/a)1,930 GW(59.3 GW/a)843 GW(22.2 GW/a)957 GW(26.0 GW/a)2Note:Calculation of growth rates per year is based on difference betwe

152、en 2020-2050.Furthermore,scenarios focus on long-term and hence,it needs to be noted that the targeted growth rates of the underlying scenarios have not been reached in 2021 and 2022.(Growth per year22020 2050)150 GW(7.6 GW/a)177 GW(8.9 GW/a)25 GW(1.2 GW/a)20502020(Growth per year31990 2020)Historic

153、02004006008001.0001.2001.4001.6001.8002.0002.200200020102020203020402050SolarOffshoreOnshoreRadical ActionREPowerEUFF55GWGrowth rates for top three RES capacities EU27+UK over scenarios(GW)28203029020402902050SpainGW29The development of power capacity mix in Europe shows a significant shift towards

154、RES capacities Nuclear stays relevant in several bidding zones Examplary power capacity mix for five specific countries in FF55-inspired-GW27203054204070205063203063204050205062020300204002050470203047020404902050ThermalNuclearRESUKGermanyItalyFranceGWGWGWGW06320302040322050PolandGWNote:Thermal incl

155、udes gas fired and fossil fired powerplants01234The FF55-inspired and REPowerEU-inspired RES capacities are in line with EU-wide recognised decarbonisation studies.Radical Action are upper endThe FF55-inspired scenario maps a potential development towards a decarbonised energy system.A carried out m

156、eta-analysis indicates that the scenario created is ambitious,especially with a view to 2030.However,the installed capacity is within the range of the other studies.It is striking that the EUs lead scenarios show a significantly lower installed capacity in all target years,as the demand for electric

157、ity in particular is significantly lower than expected today.0123401002003004005006007008009001,0001,1001,200Wind Onshore Capacities EU27+UK(GW)2020203020402050Wind Offshore Capacities EU27+UK(GW)2020203020402050Photovoltaic Capacities EU27+UK(GW)203020400123405001,0001,5002,0002,50020202050PowerBar

158、ometerTYNDP22 GATYNDP20 DETYNDP20 GATransnetBW:Energy System 2050(GM)TYNDP20 NTTransnetBW:Energy System 2050(ERE)TYNDP22 NTEMBER Stated Policy ScIRENA:Global RES Outlook(TES)IRENA:Global RES Outlook(PES)EU REF2020 ScenarioEMBER System Change ScEU FF55 MIX-CP ScenarioEU FF55 MIX ScenarioNuclear Plus

159、ScEU FF55 REG ScenarioEMBER Technology Driven ScHistoricFF55Policy Package:RePowerEUREPowerEUTYNDP22 DERadical ActionDelayed Interconnections Sc30CountryReactors under constructionPlanned reactorsReactors in decision making processSmall modulars reactors*16 +8 22813611221121National determined plans

160、 of nuclear extensions or new projects provide indication of low-carbon generation contribution to decarbonisation in EU and UKSources:Accenture research October 2022,World Nuclear Association(2022),Dow Jones Factiva,International Atomic Energy Agency PRIS(2022)20282030203120352040potential6-9 GWpot

161、ential 10 GWpotential*15 GW20231 GW2.4 GW1.4 GWpotential1.1 GW202420503.4 GWpotential13 GW1.6 GW1.65 GWpotential1.2 2.4 GWpotential3.6 GWEuropean countries position on nuclear powerEuropean nuclear projects by stage and type of technologyTimeline of new European nuclear projects operational capaciti

162、esDefined milestonesUndefined milestonesCancelledAnnounced or in study phase*Only publicly announced studies are reported.In Sweden,a feasibility study on building 2 SMRS at Ringhals is to be completed by 2024.In Romania,the US government partners with Nuclearelectrica and provide support for the en

163、gineering and design study for 6 SMRs.Bets on nuclearBets on nuclear but doesnt have it yetHeading for a nuclear phase outNo longer uses nuclearNever used nuclear0.47 GWpotential5.6 GW*Estimated capacities based on the latest announcements of nuclear plans.Range of uncertainty provided if available(

164、Poland and Czech Republic),otherwise split over time of planned new capacity according to announcements in the specialized press.Note that announced plans for new reactors can change over time.31Electricity generated in FF55-inspired(TWh)Electricity generated in REPowerEU-inspired(TWh)Electricity ge

165、nerated in Radical Action(TWh)32The 2050 electricity generation mix will be dominated by renewables,complemented with other clean generation technologiesDevelopment of the electricity generation over the timeframe of 2020 until 2050 for all scenarios in EU27+UK203016%20%24%6%11%7%4%6%22%23%12%12%1%2

166、3%7%1%12%5%3%204013%5%1%0%202018%5%5%25%1%14%10%25%9%3%6%8%7%205011%18%0%3,0644,1115,3336,475+111%01.0002.0003.0004.0005.0006.0007.0008.00011%4%22%12%7%12%3%5%202016%5%24%1%8%8%7%22%11%7%6%1%1%25%6%15%4%25%28%1%16%5%28%2%4%13%204012%205020300%21%3,0644,6515,7916,8453%+123%01.0002.0003.0004.0005.0006

167、.0007.0008.00011%4%22%12%7%12%3%5%202016%5%24%1%8%8%7%22%6%1%12%1%27%5%20304%27%29%4%17%5%29%44%14%20409%20500%21%11%3,0644,6476,7757,5402%+146%TWhTWhTWhSources:EMBER(2023)Other RES includes geothermal,maritime,biomass etc.Note:Natural gas is phased out in the power sector after/in 2040.BiomethaneHy

168、drogenPVOffshoreOnshoreOtherRESHydroNatural GasOil&Small-scale CHPCoalNuclearTo a relatively small extent,the power sector will rely on gases and their associated controllable generation to balance the power systemElectricity generation from gas in comparison to other sources in EU27+UK(TWh)The figu

169、re below shows the electricity generation by gas compared to the overall electricity generation for all scenarios and target years01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0008%20306%1%2%10%20404%20303%7%20508%1%20304%5%5%204020403%8%2%205020504,1885,4114%4,7195,8786,9544,7116,8727,6876,560Electricity G

170、eneration by other sourcesNatural GasHydrogenBiomethaneKey Take-Aways:The power sector is reliant on a share of controllable capacity such as gas units,even in the long term,to provide system inertia*.Throughout all target years and scenarios,the share of gases is between 6%(2050:Radical Action)and

171、13%(2040:FF55-inspired)An accelerated uptake in RES capacities(REPowerEU-inspired&Radical Action)reduces the dependency on gas within the power sectorApproachFuel availabilities are iteratively adjusted and parameterized in order to reduce the share of Hydrogen in the power sector while at the same

172、time fulfilling the 50/50 Hydrogen import constraint with a 5%error margin,as results of further model iterations.See the appendix section on hydrogen and biomethane for further details.Cost of Hydrogen&Biomethane:With regards to the marginal fuel costs,we assumed a lower variable costs for hydrogen

173、 compared to biomethane in the modelling.Equal CAPEX costs for the construction of gas units running on hydrogen or biomethane are considered.FF55-inspiredREPowerEU-inspiredRadical Action*Note:Power system inertia refers to the energy which is stored in the large generators.This temporary storage of

174、 energy can assist in seconds when power plants fail.Current capacity mix with high shares of thermal power plants offers sufficient storage.With future power system with high RES penetration,a minimal amount of inertia is required(NREL 2020)TWh332%23%38%8%19%2%2%3%204023%19%10%8%0%11%4%11%2%203020%

175、9%22%8%16%1%20%14%1%2%20502272413212%34Case Study:Development of the Polish electricity system in FF55-inspiredInstalled capacities Poland FF55-inspired(GW)Electricity generation by fuel type in Poland FF55-inspired(TWh)Polands generation landscape is undergoing a significant change-Based on current

176、 expansion trends,Poland achieves installed offshore wind capacities of at least 16 GW in 2050 being one of the most ambitious targets in EU27+UK in FF55-inspired.Average yearly interconnector saturation1in Poland FF55-inspired(%)Note:The shown scenarios assume a phase out of coal until 2040 what is

177、 more ambitious than the national plans which set that date further in time.This results in higher investments in gas.Furthermore,a higher electrolyser capacity is assumed.1.Interconnector saturation displays the average utilization of the aggregated Net-transfer-capacity(NTC)over the given year 6%2

178、%18%19%9%11%46%7%20406%3%14%18%4%6%33%3%17%20309%5%1%14%205010013017749%Poland accelerates the expansion of RES capacities and will reach 135 GW in 2050.This increase will cause significant investment costs of around 111 bn.The large uptake in RES capacities between 2030 and 2050 results in a more v

179、ariable electricity generation.To flatten the generation,new nuclear and gas capacities with zero emissions will be installed too.The new power mix creates the potential to become an exporter while zero emissions can be reached in 2050.PL DEPL CZPL DKEPL SKPL SE4PL LT62321693203020402050%Note:Other

180、RES includes geothermal,maritime,biomass etc.Other RESSolarWind offshoreWind onshoreHydroOil&Small-scale CHPGasCoalNuclearOther RESSolarWind offshoreWind onshoreHydro,Battery&StorageOil&Small-scale CHPHydrogenSynthetic MethaneBiomethaneNatural GasCoalNuclear35Content01Three Decarbonisation Speedways

181、 Scenarios02Massive clean electrification is the main driver of decarbonisation in three speedways03The power sector needs to transform in order to drive decarbonisation in the energy system04All scenarios call for an acceleration of installing new,clean electricity generation sources 05Integrating

182、high shares of variable renewable power sources requires sufficient flexibility06Further investments are required to reach the decarbonisation goals07Appendix36The variability of RES feed-in offers a great opportunity for flexibility offerings to step in and to help balance out supply and demandFlex

183、ibility defined*Supply or generation is not explicitly approached as flexibility option in the market model*Fired via natural gas,hydrogen or biomethane.Note:more flexibility offerings and tools will become available,only the main offerings are assessed here.New business models on grid utilization a

184、nd DSM will become increasingly important.*FtM=Front of the meter.BtM=Behind the meter.Flexibility refers to the ability of an electricity system to respond variations in electricity supplyand demand.These variations can occur over differing timeframes,from seconds(e.g.a wind turbine tripping out)to

185、 months(e.g.seasonal differences in energy consumption).Flexibility can be supplied by any element in the electricity system which can controllably and dynamically increase or reduce its supply or demand characteristics.DemandThree categories of flexibility and offeringsStorageSupply*(generation)Thr

186、ee main offerings from the demand side included:V1G EV(smart charging)in transport DSR in Industry Heat pumps in buildingsFour offering can be distinguished:V2G EV in transport Prosumer scale batteries(BtM*)Utility scale batteries(FtM*)Pumped hydropower storage Electricity generation can implicitly

187、respond via changing generation supply based on demand.Todays supply side flexibility is mainly offered by gas fired*generation plants and by hydro power plants such as turbines and pump storages.37A decarbonised power system with high share of variable RES requires a significant amount of flexibili

188、ty:531 TWh 782 TWh in 2050Overview of the use of selected flexibility sources in a decarbonised power system in 2050(TWh)TWhFF55-inspiredREPowerEU-inspiredRadical ActionV1GV2GHeat pumpsIndustrial shiftingReservoir&pump storagesBattery*Flexibility activation(TWh)of storage technologies such as hydro

189、power reservoir and pump storages as well as batteries is assessed via the flexible electricity generation and the activation of load shifting processes such as Heat pumps or Industrial shifting is assessed via the activated load decrease of the load-shifting processesWithin the model reservoir and

190、pump storages incorporate the flexible share of the overall hydro power generation and will play the main role as provider of flexibility.The importance of the transport sector in particular electric mobility is significant for the power system,as V1G and V2G provide the second largest amount of fle

191、xibility in 2050 in all scenarios.See the flexibility appendix section for further elaboration on flexibility,the capacities in GW and the assumptions made.Note:*Battery includes prosumer-scale and utility-scale batteries,with approximately equal capacities.Conventional capacities also provide flexi

192、bility to overall power system;however they provide additional net electricity generation and hence,are less comparable to demand side management and storage technologies.Hydropower reservoirs and pump storages are combined in this overview.38Hydrogen and other decarbonised fuel solutions will play

193、an important role,albeit under certain ramifications only,mainly in heavy industries,the transport sector and to provide flexibility to the power sectorFlow of hydrogen:FF55-inspired in 2030(TWh)Flow of hydrogen:FF55-inspired in 2050(TWh)In 2030 still 183 TWh of hydrogen is produced via Steam Methan

194、e Reforming(SMR).51%of the total demand will be imported.Most of the demand is used for feedstock,where hydrogen is input for a production process.Hydrogen for end use refers to hydrogen used as energy carrier for final energy demand,dominated by industry.Hydrogen will only contribute to decarbonisa

195、tion if produced via clean sources.In 2050 the total hydrogen demand accounts for 1,984 TWh.Furthermore,all hydrogen in scope is created via electrolysis.46%of the total hydrogen is imported.Clean hydrogen end use has increased in all sectors,including the demand of synthetic methane.312 TWh is used

196、 for the power sector,providing controllable generation via seasonal storage.Feedstock in 2050 comprises of 834 TWh,constant over all scenarios.Total:586 TWhTotal:1,984 TWh Note:See appendix section on hydrogen for the other scenario hydrogen flows39Electrolyser capacities need to grow in order to m

197、eet the increased domestic production of clean hydrogen in the futureTo meet the needed domestic hydrogen production,the expansion of electrolysers must be massively accelerated.Comparison to TYNDP shows the ambitious targets of REPowerEU-inspired and Radical Action.FF55-inspired shows similar devel

198、opment compared to TYNDP DE.Installed Electrolyser Capacity in EU27+UK GWCost of hydrogen will decrease further due to cost reductions in electricity and electrolysersLevelized Cost of Electricity(LCOE)and cost of electrolysers are the main drivers of the production costs of hydrogen.Dominant types

199、of electrolysers are Proton Exchange Membrane(PEM)and Alkaline,accounting for 55%and 44%of the installed capacity in Europe5Average efficiencies of the total fleet on the market are:2030:69%2040:71%2050:74%Cost of transportation&distribution depend on the mode of transport,the distance of transporta

200、tion,the hydrogen form(gaseous/liquefied),the amount in Mt hydrogen,the cost of storage,terminal and import/export fees,and potential(re)-conversion4.Cost of electrolysers are expected to fall:from 2,130 EUR/kW in 2020 to 520 EUR/kW in 20305Availability of hydrogen is ensured via domestic production

201、 and importA ratio of 50%import and 50%domestic production is approached,in line with the REPowerEU targets for 2030.A 5%error margin is taken,as result of model iterations and the interdependencies.Domestic production will shift from dominantly Steam Methane Reforming towards electrolysis via clean

202、 electricitySources:1.European Commission(2022)2.Irena(2020)3.IEA(2022)4.IEA(2021)Sources:5.European Commission(2022)6.TYNDP Visualisation platform(2022)0501001502002503003504004505005506002020203020402050GWFF55REPowerEURadicalActionTYNDP DETYNDP GAElectrolyser Capacity to increase to meet domestic

203、production40Content01Three Decarbonisation Speedways Scenarios02Massive clean electrification is the main driver of decarbonisation in three speedways03The power sector needs to transform in order to drive decarbonisation in the energy system04All scenarios call for an acceleration of installing new

204、,clean electricity generation sources 05Integrating high shares of variable renewable power sources requires sufficient flexibility06Further investments are required to reach the decarbonisation goals07Appendix41Six pillars are key to achieve accelerated decarbonisation of the power sectorThe follow

205、ing pillars are the key enablers for future a net zero power system,all equally important and interdependent:1.Electricity Market Design fit for net-zero providing the right investment signals see also next slide2.Improved financial frameworks to catalyze the needed investments as well as the right

206、environment for innovation such as the next wave of decarbonised power generation technologies,e.g.Small Modular Reactors and floating offshore wind.3.Adequate and overdue grid investments,in particular at distribution level,to enable the electrification and integration of new users in transport and

207、 other economic sectors4.Skills&training:Investing in our personnel to fulfill the required installation and maintenance of capacities and key technologies.5.Accelerated permitting and land use policies for the build-out of new power generation capacities and grids6.A cohesive industrial policy to d

208、efend European industrial competitiveness and technology leadership including the secured supply of raw materials and strengthened industrial supply chainsSix key pillars as enablers for decarbonised power sectorNote:the Green Deal Industrial Plan published in 2023 is an example of progress on multi

209、ple of these pillars.010203040506Decarbonised power sectorMarket design fit for net-zeroImproved financial frameworksGrid investmentsSkills&TrainingAccelerate permittingCohesive industrial policy 85%80%75%42Strengthening bidding zones connections benefits power system integration.Saturations of Net

210、Transfer Capacities indicate a need for priority investmentSaturation of main European Net Transfer Capacities per target year(%of max)Grid Saturation of Net Transfer Capacities between bidding zones indicate the need for increasing these connections to optimize integration of the power systemNTC va

211、lues from TYNDP are used for the simulations,since these reflect the most complete,consistent and coherent overview of the NTC values in Europe.NTC-Saturation in FF55-inspired indicate the major importance of France as exporter.Average utilization from France to other bidding zones in Central Wester

212、n Europe is higher than 80%in all years.Note:also intercontinental connections can play an important role.However,these are not assessed in this analysis.Non-exhaustive%DEATATDEDEBEBEDEFRBEBEFRNLBEBENLFRDEDEFRNLDEDENL203020402050Saturation of selected NTCs in FF55-inspired in 2030 Not all connection

213、s are displayed,only the once with highest saturation(75%).The figure below indicates a power flow from the North to the South of Europe in 2030.Due to the regional dependence of renewable energies,electricity must and will be distributed over long distances across Europe from countries with an adva

214、ntageous connection to the rest of Europe.Caveat:although it is a proxy,there is no 1-to-1 correlation with saturation to future investments and many more variables play a role for future investments.North West Europe and North Europe sees highest saturation between countries NTCsNote:not all connec

215、tions are displayed,only the once with highest saturations.TSO level43Investments in DSO grids will need to increase on top of the historic efforts,to meet the majority of the RES integration on distribution levelDSO investments Cumulative in 2030Cumulative in 2050Total Investment per year*Of which

216、additional/year*TYNDP DE362-2,137881-2,72629-916-68FF55-inspired459-2,2481,012-2,87434-9611-73REPowerEU-inspired566-2,3691,135-3,01438-10015-77Radical Action 566-2,3691,414-3,33047-11124-88DSO grid investments in 2050 vary between 1,011 billion and 3,329 billion.Based on a range of 0.52-0.59 billion

217、 euro per additional TWh electricity demand2.The year 2020 is taken as base year2.CAVEAT:Investment costs were not modeled in the electricity market model of this study.Extrapolation of existing studies based on the growth of final electricity demand was done to come to these investment ranges.This

218、is an approach based only on/TWh.In reality,many more KPIs have an impact.TYNDP Distributed Energy scenario is added as reference,using 3,611 TWh in 2030 and 4,606 TWh final electricity demand in 2050.For reference:between 2015 and 2019 annual investments in EU27+UK DSO grids increased from 21 billi

219、on to 26 billion euros.Average of historic 23 billion is taken as future planned investments.To compare:the combined GDP of the European Union in 2021 was 17,089 billion USD3.For FF55-inspired and Radical Action,the yearly investment in DSO grid would be 0.20%-0.65%of the yearly combined GDP of EU-2

220、7 assuming an equal dollar-to-euros conversion.The majority of RES integration will need to happen at the distribution system level,emphasizing the need for additional investments at DSO level2.Numbers taken reflected the total average annual investment needed2.Note that investments should not only

221、be focused on hardware,but also software to provide smart solutions for grid usage.Future research could focus on the further specification of the allocation of investments.See the appendix section of challenges and benefits.Cumulative and yearly DSO investments per scenario based on additional TWh

222、demand per scenario(in billion euros)2Sources:1.Electricity price statistics:Eurostat(2022)2.Connecting the dots:Eurelectric(2021)3.GDP data for EU27 in current US dollars:Worldbank(2022)2015201620172018201920302334-39 bn/year+11-16 bn(+47%-68%)Historic annual DSO grid investments EU27+UK(in billion

223、 euros)2*For investments per year,the 2050 cumulative value was divided by 30 years.*Assuming planned investments equal the historic average of 23 billion average 2015-2019.Additional value per year is total investments per year minus the historic average.DSO levelbn.44Total investment and operation

224、al cost of the core power system 2050 per scenario are approached.Numbers not reflect all power system componentsOverview cost components for core power systemDSOCAPEX GridCAPEX generationRESConventional/cleanOPEX generationRESConventionalIn scope of core power system costsOut of scope of core power

225、 system costsCAPEX otherUtility scale batteriesElectrolysersCAPEX DSR offeringsBuildingsTransportIndustryAgricultureCarbon costsCCS,unabated gasTaxes of CO2Calculation of total system costs were not primary focus of modeling exercise,hence results are partly based on literature values and partly on

226、model input or output values Inflation or deflation is not taken into account in the cost analysisDifferentiation between results is desired in the publication via labeling:Model results Analysis based on values from other studiesNo further rights can be derived based on these results.The final cost

227、 values have numerous limitations,such as the different sources for cost calculations and the Out of scopeOther Demand Side Response offerings.(i.e.investments for heat pumps)CAPEX for Steam Methane Reforming to produce hydrogen.Transmission,distribution,storage and conversion costs of hydrogen.CAPE

228、X of prosumer batteries.Cost of capital.Cost off CCS.Taxes levies,fees and surcharges.OPEX for DSO&TSO grid.CAPEX for TSO grid.Important caveatsHydrogenSMR CAPEXHydrogen T&DLegendIn scopeOut of scopeCapital cost&batteriesCost of capitalProsumer batteriesTSOCAPEX Grid45Annual investments in new gener

229、ation capacities increase,as result of the additional capacities to be built for the more ambitious scenariosCAPEX values for relevant generation technologies in EU27+UK1(/kW)Sources:1.EMBER(2022),TYNDP 2022 scenarios:Global Ambition,Distributed Energies,National Trends.2020 only EMBER,2030,2040 and

230、 2050 average of 3 TYNDP scenarios and EMBER.For Nuclear:European Commission PRIMES Model.Note:sources differ on future CAPEX of nuclear,for the financial calculations only the Ember CAPEX values are used.2.GDP data for EU27 in current US dollars:Worldbank(2022)Annual Investments needed into generat

231、ion capacities in EU27+UK within the period 2020-20503(bn/year)/kWAnnual investments bn Business as Usual*FF55-insp.REPowerEU-insp.Radical Action*Note:Business as usual are derived from TYNDP National Trends in 2040,converted to annual values,complemented with the underlying assumptions on CAPEX and

232、 OPEX used in this study.3.Excluding costs on decommissioning and replacement of end-of-lifetime assets.Values are based on literature values1(/kW)and capacities of the scenarios(GW).Business as usual is estimated for cumulative values until 2040,converted to annual investments,based on national Ene

233、rgy&climate Plans from countries(TYNDP).The annual investments for the Decarbonisation Speedways scenarios include higher capacities and hence higher investments.To compare:the combined GDP of the European Union in 2021 was 17,089 billion USD2.The annual investments in CAPEX for generation capacitie

234、s in FF55-inspired-Radical Action are 0.48-0.68%of the yearly combined GDP of EU-27 assuming an equal dollar-to-euros conversion.Nuclear CAPEX values are the higest among the technologies in scope.Conventional technologies are not decreasing in CAPEX over target years,while the RES-related techologi

235、es do decrease over time.0500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 5.000 5.500NuclearCoalOilGas TurbinesOthersOnshoreOffshorePVTurbinePumpRun of RiverOther RESElectrolyserUtility-Scale Battery202020302040205046In order to decarbonise the electricity generation,significant investments in g

236、eneration capacities are neededCumulative CAPEX investments into RES expansion and generation capacities in EU27+UK in 2020-2050*Key Take-Aways:In all scenarios significant investments are needed in order to shift towards renewable energy sources and clean energy technologiesFor 2050 the cumulative

237、capex into clean generation technologies are between 2,459 bn euros in FF55-inspired and 3,506 bn euros in the Radical Action scenario.Radical Action:In order to decarbonise the energy system already by 2040,the cumulative investments until 2040 are especially challenging.The needed investments unti

238、l 2040 in the Radical Action scenario are almost of the same magnitude of the cumulative investments until 2050 in the REPowerEU-inspired scenario.Note:investments in Radical Action continue,since electricity demand and thereby the installed capacities increase,after reaching net-zero in 2040.Approa

239、chOn the left the cumulative Investments are displayed.Within the calculation,the focus was set on the generation technologies and how a switch towards renewable energy sources and clean generation technologies can be accomplished.Additional capacities from the model input values were multiplied wit

240、h investment values from literature1and summed for the years.*Caveats:Sources used based on modeling outcomes and further analysis with literature values on CAPEX values.Increase in gas turbines apply,but are considered multi-fuel gas turbines for biomethane,hydrogen and natural gas.Within this figu

241、re the investments needed for the power grids are not included.The investments are to be interpretated as over night investments.Excluding replacement of end-of-lifetime assets.FF55-inspiredREPowerEU-inspiredRadical ActionSources:1.EMBER(2022),TYNDP 2022 scenarios:Global Ambition,Distributed Energie

242、s,National Trends.2020 only EMBER,2030,2040 and 2050 average of 3 TYNDP scenarios and EMBER Note:only top three RES technologies are displayed in percentages.NuclearGas TurbinesOther Non RESOnshoreOffshorePVHydro TurbineHydro PumpHydro RoROther RESElectrolyserUtility-Scale batteries1.50005001.0002.0

243、002.5003.0003.5004.00035%0%0%2%6%3%20502%0%25%20%36%1%1%3%8%3%20304%4%24%19%35%1%1%2%7%3%bn.3%2%4%25%20%34%2%1%0%2%27%7%3%24%20502%0%35%25%20%35%3%0%2%0%3%4%8%3%3%20303%3%4%25%20%34%2%2%20302%5%7%2%4%20403%24%3%25%21%34%3%2%20%1%35%6%2%204020501.0841.8742.4591.5512.3652.9961.5912.9753.5060%0%2%5%3%2

244、0404%5%25%20%47Both CAPEX and OPEX for electricity generation grow over time and over the scenariosCumulative CAPEX and OPEX of the power sector for clean generation in EU27+UK for 2020-2050*Comprising CAPEX for the installment of new RES or clean generation technologies as well as the Investments i

245、nto utility-scale batteries and electrolysers.OPEX comprises the fixed and variable OPEX(e.g.Fuel costs)for 2020-2050*60%40%203049%51%204039%61%205066%34%203052%48%204043%57%2050bn.34%203054%46%204043%57%20501,8063,8406,3672,3614,5266,9852,4005,4948,08566%Key Take-AwaysNot only the investments neede

246、d into the enablement of clean and renewable electricity generation are significant,but also the operational costs need to be managed.The share of both variable as well as fixed operational expenses increases over time due to the following aspects:Overall installed capacities are increasing causing

247、the overall maintenance and service cost to increase as well.Currently used energy carriers such as natural gas,hard coal,lignite will be replaced by cleaner carriers such as hydrogen or biomethane.ApproachCAPEX calculations are based on the approach described on CAPEX slide,with literature values1a

248、nd input capacities.OPEX of electricity generation consists of two components:Fixed OPEX:Costs incurred for operational readiness as well as maintenance.This is not linked to the amount of dispatch in TWh.Variable OPEX:Costs incurred during operation such as fuel costs,ramp-up,start-up costs.This is

249、 dependent on the amount of dispatch in TWh.Includes also the operational expenses of electrolysers and batteries.The consumed electricity is to be considered the fuel for operating these technologies.*CaveatsInterpolation is applied for OPEX to arrive at cumulative values,so assumptions are made fo

250、r the target years which were not in scope of the model.Excluding grid investments.FF55-inspiredREPowerEU-inspiredRadical ActionCAPEXOPEXSources:1.EMBER(2022),TYNDP 2022 scenarios:Global Ambition,Distributed Energies,National Trends.2020 only EMBER,2030,2040 and 2050 average of 3 TYNDP scenarios and

251、 EMBER 48Total cumulative investments and operational cost of the core power system in 2050 per scenarioTotal investments of the core power sector for the period in EU27+UK in 2020-2050*Comprising CAPEX for the installment of new RES and other generation technologies plus the investments into utilit

252、y-scale batteries and electrolysers plus the CAPEX for DSO grids plus the OPEX and variable OPEX(e.g.fuel costs).bn 27%42%31%FF55-inspired30%40%30%REPowerEU-inspired31%40%29%Radical Action9,2419,99811,414CAPEXOPEXGrid investment DSOKey Take-AwaysInvestments into renewable and clean energy technologi

253、es are around a quarter of the total costs of the power system.Second largest part will be the needed investment into the Distribution Grid.To enable a power system based on Renewable energy sources,a modernization and transformation of the distribution grid is necessary.Operational expenses are not

254、 to be neglected in the energy transition.To compare:the combined GDP of the European Union in 2021 was 17,089 billion USD3.The total investments in CAPEX and OPEX for generation capacities,and the CAPEX for the DSO grid in FF55-inspired-Radical Action are 54-67%of the 2021 combined GDP of EU-27 ass

255、uming an equal dollar-to-euros conversion.ApproachFor CAPEX,variable and fixed OPEX,the approach is described on the slides before.Maximum values for estimated DSO investments are taken into account.The investments are extrapolated based on additional TWh and the reference to the“connecting the dots

256、”study2.*CaveatsIncludes only core power system.Not DSR offering investments(i.e.EV charge points),no prosumer batteries,no hydrogen SMR CAPEX or hydrogen T&D costs,no CCS or unabated gasses costs or emission taxes and no TSO costs are included.Excluding replacement of end-of-lifetime assets.Total c

257、osts are no direct model outcome.Additional literature values are used to come to these total investments.Sources:1.EMBER(2022),TYNDP 2022 scenarios:Global Ambition,Distributed Energies,National Trends.2020 only EMBER,2030,2040 and 2050 average of 3 TYNDP scenarios and EMBER 2.Connecting the dots:Eu

258、relectric(2021)3.GDP data for EU27 in current US dollars:Worldbank(2022):49Electrification is an opportunity to lower energy household bills,since fossil fuels will be phased out.Benefits of the decarbonised power system outweigh the costs36%Societal benefits of the Energy Transtition1Energy&supply

259、Components3:Overall energy use in residential buildings decreases by 45%in 2050 compared to 2015 in the FF55-inspired scenario.Energy consumption residential buildings in FF55(TWh)Network CostsDistribution of components of household electricity bill2,3Energy household bills are expected to go down s

260、ince fossil fuels are phased out and the energy use in residential will decrease due to efficiency gains.Sustainability27-22bn annual CO2savings40-140bn annual savings in health and better air quality58,000 premature deaths avoided460 Mtoe less of final energy consumption by 2030,achieving 32.5%of e

261、fficiency targetBetter preservation of biodiversity and ecosystemsCompetitivenessTerritorial cohesion and promotion of local economies28-37bn average electricity cost reduction(thanks to 50-65%lower RES than fossil generation)+175bn annual savings in fuel imports Increased competitive position Europ

262、ean clean technologies Lower footprint of European produced productsCustomer Empowerment40 GW self-consumption capacity added50-70m EVs with smart charging New Services:Storage,electric heating,smart appliances,aggregators Higher food and water securitiesEconomy30-35bn of annual revenues for EU comp

263、anies(e.g.manufacturers&service providers)440-620k quality jobs per year related to DSO grids 30-35 bn annual sales in equipmentAdvantage in circular economySources:1.Eurelectric connecting the Dots(2021)2.Eurostat electricity prices for household consumers(2022)3.Eurostat Electricity prices compone

264、nts for household consumers(2022)Non-exhaustiveNote:see appendix section on challenges and benefits for further elaboration8418115220245594445418320849020152030258204020503.2852.5252.1121.8101.8171.1101.1711.19147144626-45%ElectricityH2Decarbonised energy carriersOthersFossils50The incentive to act

265、now has never been higher.If we do not act,we will lose the opportunity to speed up decarbonisation forever 51Content01Three Decarbonisation Speedways Scenarios02Massive clean electrification is the main driver of decarbonisation in three speedways03The power sector needs to transform in order to dr

266、ive decarbonisation in the energy system04All scenarios call for an acceleration of installing new,clean electricity generation sources 05Integrating high shares of variable renewable power sources requires sufficient flexibility06Further investments are required to reach the decarbonisation goals07

267、Appendix52Appendices Scenario background Heat pumps&district heating Abatement Hydrogen&Biomethane CCS Flexibility Hydropower Challenges ahead&benefits Sensitivity analysis Assumptions Reference list53Scenario backgroundDuring last decades,the causes and consequences of climate change from human act

268、ivities became more evident.The IPCC urges society to take action in her latest report,to prevent a climate disaster with a scale and impact that would mean the end of human society as we know it1.Over time,increased emission reduction targets were set in the European Union.Although the EU consisted

269、 of different countries at the different moments in time,targets increased as depicted in the graph on the top right,leading to the ambition set for 2050.To realise the latest goals,a significant change of pace in emitting greenhouse gasses is needed(see graph bottom right).We have recognized,studie

270、d and understood the impact of climate change for over 30 years,but so far society has failed to realise the offset of faster emission reductions.The current energy crisis,as well as new insights and innovations,lead to the need for an updated study where the opportunity to decarbonise even faster t

271、han set out in our previous ambitions is explored.Market changes in relation to the previous study include,but are not limited to:The increased need for independency from Russian gas;Soaring energy market prices;New insights into the development of the hydrogen value chain,and;Innovations on the usa

272、ge of flexibility on both demand and generation.Let us use this momentum to accelerate our decarbonisation efforts.If we do not seize this opportunity to act,it is very unlikely that we will succeed at any point in the future.The time to act is now.IntroductionHistorical emissionsFF55-inspired speed

273、way LegendCommitments of emission reduction targets for EU Sources:1.IPCC(2022)&Emissions:EEA2.IPCC(2022)3.EC:Kyoto 1(2022)4.EC:2020 package(2022)5.EC:Kyoto2(2022)6.EC:2030 Climate&energy framework(2021)7.Green Deal(2022)Note graph 1:targets included different EU countries in history.Note graph 2:il

274、lustrative;emissions do not decline in a linear fashion.20222030204020505,621200020101990Million tonnes of CO2Equivalent122020551002015202019962025200020302004203520082040201220452016205020202024201020552020 Climate&Energy packageKyoto protocol(1st commitment)Fit for 55Green Deal in line with UNFCCC

275、 Paris agreementKyoto protocol(2nd commitment)Change in pace of emission reductions per year to achieve net zero goalsTarget year of commitmentBubble size reflect the percentage emission reduction targets.EU countries committed in 2013 to 20%reduction below 1990 levels by 2013-20.Progress is current

276、ly on track5.As part of Green Deal,the EC announced in 2020 increased reduction targets for 55%emission reduction compared to 1990 and updating its NDCs6.EU-15 in 1997 first committed to 8%reduction below 1990 levels in 2008-12.Reduction of 11.7%was realised3.EU target for 20%reduction emissions,20%

277、energy from renewables and 20%energy efficiency increase.Emissions Trading System installed as key tool4.Commitment for net zero,aiming for 100%emission reduction by 2050.Climate law proposed in 2020,adopted in 20217.Announced year of commitment54Historical EU commitments on climate reduction target

278、s do not reflect the scope of work needed to achieve net zero in 205001TYNDP DE55An all-energy scenario approach for EU27+UK using TYNDP DE and changing main drivers,based on literature and expert inputThe key outcome for all scenarios presented in this study is the final energy demand for the secto

279、rs buildings,transport and industry1.The energy carriers that make up the final energy demand change in each scenario based on the main drivers for decarbonisation.Changes to the scenarios are made according to the methodology described below.Out of scope for this phase is the energy generation as w

280、ell as the use of potential energy carriers as feedstock.1.The agricultural sector and other smaller sectors are taken into account in our calculations,but not explicitly shown in our results as they represent a very small share of the total final energy demand.2.Next to the Steerco meetings,scoreca

281、rds were used to gather the values for input data such as future fuel costs for 2030,2040&2050.TYNDP Distributed Energy(DE)as starting point Focus on buildings,transport and industries sector102Expert Input03Literature Research04FF55-inspired05REPowerEU-inspired06Radical Action Existing energy scena

282、rios and outlook studies Scientific studies Industry reports Policy packages Interviews with Eurelectric stakeholders Steering committee members2 Expert interviews Based on REPowerEU policy package Accelerated electrification towards 2030 Reaching net zero in 2050 Based on Fit for 55 policy package

283、Reaching net zero in 2050 Radical action reaching net zero energy market by 2040 Continuing the decarbonisation pace of REPowerEU until 2030FF55 policy packageREPowerEU policy packageScopeDataset as starting pointInput for modificationsScenariosLegend56Heat pumps&district heating Graph based on REPo

284、werEU-inspired7and JRC5data.Number for 2050 is estimated via total electricity use per heat pump4,the share of electricity use of a heat pump per household and the electricity demand for buildings in 2050 in REPowerEU-inspired.1754251100m200m300m202120302050The transition from traditional-to electri

285、c heating is the most critical driver to electrify buildingsEstimation of installed heat pumps required for REPowerEU inspired(EU27+UK)in millions Sources:1.The eco expert(2021)2.IEA(n.d.)3.EHPA(2015)4.Spitler et al.(2019)5.JRC Heat pumps in the EU(2022)6.EHPA(2022)Sweden has 19,510 heat pumps per 1

286、00,000 inhabitants thanks to policy accounting for 2 million installed heat pumps in the country.1 Factors that have contributed to Swedens success in electrical heating2:It is mandatory to install heat pumps in a newly built homes;Government funded R&D;Government funded training of workforce;Financ

287、ial incentives:tax credits for replacement of gas and oil boilers and tax on heating oil;Strong energy infrastructure and low electricity prices;Historically not dependent on fossils for heating.Sweden is frontrunner in heat pump installations(2022)The sales of heat pumps in Europe grew in 2021 by 3

288、4%mainly driven by higher energy prices6.Energy prices drive uptake heat pumpsChallengesInstallation capacity;accelerating the installation of heat pumps can be hampered by:Supply chain and manufacturing limitations;Having enough trained personnel to execute the installationsTechnical performance ca

289、n be further improved.OpportunitiesHeat pumps can decarbonise heating and create strong energy efficiency gains,Cost competitiveness can drive market growth:As the market matures and becomes more competitive,prices are likely to decrease;Better electricity infrastructure and electricity supply and m

290、ore attractive electricity prices(compared to fossils)favour electric heating(as the case of Sweden).Challenges and opportunities1.Air source heat pumps The most common heat pump technology,works by extracting residual heat from outside air and adding energy to produce heat and can be split into thr

291、ee types:All-electric heat pumps;Hybrid heat pumps which usually operate in combination with a gas boiler;Reversible heat pumps:work both ways and can also provide cooling.2.Ground sourceLess common type of heat pumps which works by transferring heat from the ground.Two heat pump technologies explai

292、ned 577.REPowerEU target of 50 million heat pumps excludes UK.UK plans for 600,000 installations per year until 2028,arriving at 54.47 heat pumps in 2050.Assuming same growth rate for UK in 2029 and 2030.Heat pumpsDistrict heating will play an increasing role in the future in Europe,using more renew

293、able heat sources to heat or cool buildingsThree main steps can be distinguished in the district heating value chain3Different types of district heating:decentralized versus centralizedMain challenges&opportunities aheadChallenges:District energy infrastructure is highly capital intensive for utilit

294、ies and requires high upfront investments and long construction periods,making Return On Investments challenging.2Dependent on countrys regulations,various parties are included in the value chain,which can complicate the governance.5 Consumers can delay role out dependent on their power of influence

295、.Finding scalable and replicable business models,ownership structures,and financing schemes2.Opportunities:Especially in dense urban environments,district heating is a cost effective approach2 since they offer economies of scale and high efficiency potential,and flexibility(via thermal storage).5Wit

296、h rising number of CCS and PtX capacities in the near future,the generated residual heat will increase,district heating enables the usage of this waste.2Integration of low-temperature district energy can boost integration of various other heat sources and industries complemented with the integration

297、 of heat pumps,RES and smart and digitized thermal grids.2 Using renewable heat sources(i.e.solar thermal),district heating could significantly reduce CO2 emissions.3The centralized system uses a limited number of centralized heat sources based on fossil fuels or biomass.The distribution temperature

298、 is above 65 C.3The decentralized system uses multiple decentralized heat sources which are mostly sustainable.This kind of heat sources produce heat at low temperature.The distribution temperature is between 25 C and 65 C.3Both cooling and heating will be relevant in the future.Sources,types,active

299、 market players and regulations for district heating vary highly among countries.District Heating penetration increase in EU27(%of buildings connected)1,5Sources:1.EMBER(2022)2.IEA(2022)3.Accenture(2020)4.EC(2022)5.TYNDP(2022)%penetration3%2%5%1%1%2%0%OtherCoal and peatOilNon-renewable wasteRenewabl

300、e wasteBiomass and biofulesGeothermalHeat pumpsIndustrial excess heatSolar thermalNatural gasEU27 District heating supply fuel mix in 20184Production&storageTransport&DistributionSupplyProduction of heat/cold in the form of steam or hot/cold water at a temperature that is derived from the source.Sto

301、rage via aquifers is possible if needed.The produced heat/cold is transported from the source to the distribution network that distributes it within the district heating customer area.The heat organization supplies the heat to the customers and has a contract with the customers to pay,according to t

302、he tariff,for the heat usage.District Heating and Cooling represents 12%of the EUs heating market in residential and service sector in 2018.2Ember and TYNDP predict 21%-32%of buildings to be connected to district heating system in 20501,5.Sources will be dominated by electricity and ambient heat.Coa

303、l and oil will be phased out.Ember-System ChangeTYNDP-Distributed EnergyTYNDP-Global Ambition5859Abatement60Decarbonising buildings via heat pumps has the highest impact when electricity sector is further decarbonised in the coming decadesAbatement of GHG emissions by replacing gas boilers with heat

304、 pumps in buildingsMt CO2-eqNatural gas 2020Electricity 20202030204020502030204020502030204020500000-53%FF55-inspired Radical ActionREPowerEU-inspiredDescription&approachThe values for each scenario display the carbon emissions that would be emitted if the current demand for water-and space heating

305、would be completely electrified.First,the graphs displays the reduction in emissions in case of electrification of all heating(space-and water heating)in buildings,this reduction is mainly the result of heat pumps that have a higher seasonal performance factor(more efficient).The remaining emissions

306、 result from electricity generation.Thus,the sooner the power sector decarbonises,the sooner heating in buildings will be emission free.Since the power sector decarbonises faster for the ambitious scenarios,REPowerEU-inspired and Radical Action display lower emissions compared to FF55-inspirerd.Over

307、view of MtonCO2emitted in status quo for space and water heating in buildings versus the emissions per scenario when heating via heat pumps and the associated emissions of electricity in that yearIn 2050,100%of the CO2would be abated,since electricity generation is completely decarbonised.When repla

308、cing all boilers with heat pumps in 2020 in buildings,53%of CO2would be abated Energy consumption for EU households mainly space heating(2020)2%Space heatingWater heatingLighting and appliancesCookingCooling and otherSpace heating accounts for majority of energy consumption of households,followed by

309、 water heating and lighting and appliances1Natural gas is currently the main energy carrier used in residential buildings in Europe,which will be replaced mainly by electricitySources:1.Eurostat Energy consumption in households(2022)61Buildings realises most abatement of emissions in the first decad

310、e.Transport abates most in the last two decades.106 Mton CO2is remaining in 2050 FF55-inspired abatement in emissions per sector and per decade61132821137549021656228914105001,0002,5002,0002,5003,000202029Abated in decade203068Abated in decade20409552Abated in decade10620502,936-1,2941,669-1,058-505

311、*See appendix section on CCS in final reportKey insightsLargest abatement is achieved in first decade with 1,294 Mton CO2.Buildings abate most in the first decade,in the last two decades transport accounts for the highest abatement in Mton CO2In 2050,106 Mton CO2 is remaining as final energy emissio

312、ns.CCS*can be applied to achieve net-zero.Main assumptionsFinal energy demand in TWh per sector from the demand framework is used and translated to emissions with the emissions factors per energy carrier.Non energy emissions(Agriculture non-energy,waste,industrial heat processes,LULUCF)are excluded

313、in this overview,since these values diverge and are out of scope of the study.CCUS is not shown as it was not in scope of the modelling exercise.However,we do assume that CCUS covers the remaining emissions to achieve net-zero based on a meta-analysis of the CCUS potential in EU27+UK.This is further

314、 elaborated on in the appendix.Elaboration of resultsMton CO2Energy related emissionsBuildingsTransportIndustryAgriculture and other sectors62Buildings realises most abatement of emissions in the first decade.Transport abates most in the last two decades.50 Mton CO2is remaining in 2050 REPowerEU-ins

315、pired abatement in emissions per sector and per decadeKey insightsLargest abatement is achieved in first decade with 1,496 Mton CO2.Buildings abate most in the first decade,in the last two decades transport accounts for the highest abatement in Mton CO2In 2050,50 Mton CO2 is remaining as final energ

316、y emissions.CCS1can be applied to achieve net-zero.Main assumptionsFinal energy demand in TWh per sector from the demand framework is used and translated to emissions with the emissions factors per energy carrier.Non energy emissions(Agriculture non-energy,waste,industrial heat processes,LULUCF)are

317、excluded in this overview,since these values diverge and are out of scope for this study.CCUS is not shown as it was not in scope of the modelling exercise.However,we do assume that CCUS covers the remaining emissions to achieve net-zero based on a meta-analysis of the CCUS potential in EU27+UK.This

318、 is further elaborated on in the appendix.1.See appendix section on CCS in final reportElaboration of resultsEnergy related emissionsBuildingsTransportIndustryAgriculture and other sectors05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0004083783350-1,496-1,033-3832,9361,467Mton CO22020Abated in decade2030Abated in decad

319、e2040Abated in decade205063Buildings realises most abatement of emissions in the first decade.Transport abates most in the last two decades.14 Mton CO2is remaining in 2050 Radical Action abatement in emissions per sector and per decade05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,000409974314-1,498-1,288-1632,9631,465K

320、ey insightsLargest abatement is achieved in first decade with 1,458 Mton CO2.Buildings abate most in the first decade,in the last two decades transport accounts for the highest abatement in Mton CO2In 2050,14 Mton CO2 is remaining as final energy emissions.CCS1can be applied to achieve net-zero.Main

321、 assumptionsFinal energy demand in TWh per sector from the demand framework is used and translated to emissions with the emissions factors per energy carrier.Non energy emissions(Agriculture non-energy,waste,industrial heat processes,LULUCF)are excluded in this overview,since these values diverge ou

322、t of scope for this study.CCUS is not shown as it was not in scope of the modelling exercise.However,we do assume that CCUS covers the remaining emissions to achieve net-zero based on a meta-analysis of the CCUS potential in EU27+UK.This is further elaborated on in the appendix.Mton CO21.See appendi

323、x section on CCS in final reportElaboration of resultsEnergy related emissionsBuildingsTransportIndustryAgriculture and other sectors2020Abated in decade2030Abated in decade2040Abated in decade205064Hydrogen&BiomethaneHydrogen share in final energy demand scenarios for buildings,transport,and indust

324、ries0123456789102030204020501%1%1%5%6%7%8%9%10%Literature research and expert opinions used for hydrogen valuesHydrogen will still focus on hard to abate sectors,like heavy duty transport and high temperature heat processes in industries.Literature values diverge and expert opinions were used in add

325、ition to come to the hydrogen values for the scenarios.Below an overview of the spread in literature values per sector for hydrogen demand in 2050,excluding feedstock.IndustriesBuildingsTransportMinMax1%32%MinMax4%31%MinMax7%17%1.FF55 2.REPowerEU3.Radical ActionNote:excluding feedstockWhile hydrogen

326、 is the most abundant element in the universe,its extraction is limited by the current cost of technology.Therefore,on the short-to medium term,hydrogen demand is expected to be fully driven by policy,where governments will implement incentives to drive down the levelized cost of hydrogen(LCOH).On t

327、he longer term(2035 onwards),zero carbon hydrogen from dedicated renewable electrolysis and low carbon hydrogen production from steam methane reforming with CCS will further drive down the LCOH.3 Note that the current study assumes that hydrogen demand in scope(for energy use)is either zero carbon o

328、r low.Both are considered carbon neutral.Power grids are not considered a bottleneck for hydrogen production in the scenarios,due to potential local production to avoid transport dependency.High installed RES capacities will enable production of hydrogen in periods of abundant RES feed in and low el

329、ectricity demand.Seasonal storage can provide controllable generation for the power system.Development of hydrogen demandEffect of variations in hydrogen demand on final energy demand(FF55-inspired,2050)As future demand(and supply)for the use of hydrogen as an energy carrier is very uncertain,which

330、affects demand of other energy carriers.Mainly demand for liquid energy carriers and methane are largely influenced by varying hydrogen demand.The graph displays a high and low sensitivity scenario for hydrogen demand in 2050 compared to the original values used in the FF55-inspired speedway focussi

331、ng only on the demand of buildings,transport and industries.Sources:1.WEF(2021)2.Accenture(2020)3.DNV(2022)Zero carbon hydrogen is key to decarbonise the hard-to-abate sectors such as heavy transport and heavy industries65%hydrogen in final energy demand2525861.120523796981.1034217494451367202004006

332、008001.0001.200HydrogenMethaneLiquidsBiomassSolidsOthersHydrogen lowHydrogen highOriginal valueClean alternatives biomethane and synthetic methane will put an end to natural gas as transition fuel in buildings,transport,industries,power sectorMethane development buildings,transport&industries vs pow

333、er sector(TWh)Demand for natural gas will decline over time while demand for bio-alternatives will increase.Synthetic alternatives emerge in 2030 but remain low.Total biomethane demand in 2050 reaches 1,301 TWh.Biomethane in the power sector is the highest in FF55-inspired scenario,since in the other scenarios the higher installed RES capacities and flexibilities cover for the remaining electricit