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1、The Silver InstitutePhilip Newman&Adam Webb,Metals FocusNovember 17th20222022 INTERIM SILVER MARKET REVIEW22022 contrasting messages-150-100-50050100150200250Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22MozInvestor positioning turns negativeSource:CFTC,net managed money positions32022 contrasting

2、 messages-150-100-50050100150200250Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22MozSILVERGOLD-5051015Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Moz-40-20020406080100Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Contracts(000s)COPPERSource:CFTC,net managed money positions42022 contrasting messages-150-100-50050100150200250Jan-21Apr-21Jul

3、-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22MozSource:CFTC,net managed money positions52022 contrasting messages-150-100-50050100150200250Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Moz8009001,0001,1001,2002010201220142016201820202022E2010-2021 averageSource:Metals Focus;CFTC6Global exchange stocks falling

4、,by 400Moz this ytd to 1.3bn oz 240 280 320 360 4008009001,0001,1001,200Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22MozMozLondonComexSource:LBMA,Bloomberg72022 helps explain a rising gold:silver ratio-150-100-50050100150200250Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22MozSource:CFTC,Bloombe

5、rg60708090100Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-228Silvers under performance during H2.22Source:Bloomberg758595105115125Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22IndexSilver PriceGold Price LMEXIntra year:Gold-2%;Silver-6%;LMEX-12%92021,the start of a new phase of deficits,-48MozSurplusDeficit1

6、0152025303540-60-40-20020406080201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021US$/ozMoz Balance Silver PriceSource:Metals FocusMined silver production to rise by 9Moz y/y in 202210This year global output is expected to rise by 1%y/y to 830Moz as significant growth in production from Mexico and Chil

7、e surpasses falling output from major producers such as Peru,China and Russia.Source:Metals FocusBubble size represents average LOM production.Source:Metals FocusMajor new projects are driving growth in Mexico11Since 2020 four major new primary silver projects have commenced production in Mexico.The

8、se are bigger than new projects elsewhere in the world and are the main reason for growth in Mexican output.Keno HillSan JulianSan JoseJuanicipioSan SebastianCapelaCerro Los GatosLas ChispasCerro de Pasco Oxide Plant05101520252010201220142016201820202022LOM at Start-up(Years)Start-up YearArgentinaAu

9、straliaCanadaChileChinaFinlandMexicoMoroccoPeruRussiaPrimary silver miners costs lower year-on-year in H1.2212Average AISC for primary silver mines in H1.22 fell by 10%y/y to$9.72/oz due to a rise in by-product credits.However,this drop was surpassed by a 12%decline in the silver price over the same

10、 period which led to average margins falling by 13%y/y.-20-100102030400255075US$/ozCumulative Silver Production-Market Share(%)H1.22 AISCH1.21 AISCH1.21 Silver Price($26.47/oz)H1.22 Silver Price($23.34/oz)100Source:Metals Focus Silver Mine Cost ServiceRising energy costs negated by higher metal pric

11、es in H1.2213Gas and oil prices have risen in 2022 increasing fuel and energy costs for miners.Rising metal prices led to an increase in by-product revenues for silver miners in H1.22.50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22IndexBrent Crude(ICE)Natural Gas(NYMEX)80901001101201301401501

12、60170Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22IndexGoldCopperLeadZincSource:Bloomberg,Metals FocusRise in by-product revenues surpasses increase in costs14Input cost inflation pushed on-site costs and sustaining capex up by 10%and 16%respectively year-on-year.However,this was surpassed by higher by-product revenues

13、with zinc by-product credits increasing by 40%over the same period.Source:Metals Focus Silver Mine Cost Service15Industrial demand,setting a new high(+5%to 539Moz)05010015020025060657075808590951002010201220142016201820202022EGWUnits(m)LDV ProductionPhotovoltaicsSource:Metals Focus16Industrial deman

14、d,setting a new high(+5%to 539Moz)01002003004005006002010201220142016201820202022EMozElectrical&ElectronicsBrazing AlloysOther IndustrialSource:Metals Focus17Most roads lead to India50556065700102030405060Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22ImportsMCX Monthly Spot PriceNote:Oct 22 Imports are

15、estimatedSource:Indian Customs,Metals Focus18Most roads lead to India50556065700102030405060Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22ImportsMCX Monthly Spot PriceNote:Oct 22 Imports are estimated-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.0Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22$/ozNote:Premium/Discount is calculated on th

16、e landed costSource:Indian Customs,Metals Focus19Most roads lead to India50556065700102030405060Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22ImportsMCX Monthly Spot PriceNote:Oct 22 Imports are estimated-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.0Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22$/ozNote:Premium/Discount is calculated o

17、n the landed cost01020304050JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepAirSeaSource:Indian Customs,Metals Focus20Most roads lead to India50556065700102030405060Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Oct-22ImportsMCX Monthly Spot PriceNote:Oct 22 Imports are estimated-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.0Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-2

18、2Sep-22$/ozNote:Premium/Discount is calculated on the landed cost050100150200250300201020122014201620182020202201020304050JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepAirSeaSource:Indian Customs,Metals Focus21Jewelry(+29%to 235Moz)&silverware also hit new highs102030400501001502002502010201220142016201820202022EUS$/o

19、zMozOtherIndia Silver PriceJewelrySource:Metals Focus22Jewelry(+29%to 235Moz)&silverware(+72%to 73Moz)to also hit new highs102030400501001502002502010201220142016201820202022EUS$/ozMozOtherIndia Silver PriceJewelry102030400204060802010201220142016201820202022EUS$/ozMozOtherIndia Silver PriceSource:M

20、etals FocusSilverware23Bar and coin investment(+18%to 329Moz)jumps to a new peak10152025300510152025303540Q1-15Q1-17Q1-19Q1-21US$/ozMozN.AmericaEuropeOther Silver PriceSource:Metals Focus24Bar and coin investment(+18%to 329Moz)jumps to a new peak101520253035400501001502002503003502010201220142016201

21、820202022EUS$/ozMozUSIndiaGermanyOther Silver PriceSource:Metals Focus25ETP holdings down 120Moz this ytd,but remain historically high612182430366007008009001,0001,1001,200Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Value($bn)MozSource:Bloomberg,various ETF issuers26Global demand summary:+

22、16%-0.21,046 1,210+84.1+51.4+27.1+1.59009501,0001,0501,1001,1501,2001,2502021 Jewelry&Silverware PhysicalInvestment Industrial Hedging Photography 2022EMozSource:Metals Focus27Global supply summary:+2%998 1,017+9.7+8.49609801,0001,0201,0402021Mine ProductionScrapOfficial Sector2022EMoz+0.1Source:Met

23、als Focus282022 generates a multi-decade high deficit of 194MozSource:Metals Focus101520253035-200-150-100-500501002010201220142016201820202022FUS$/ozMoz Balance Silver PriceSurplusDeficitDeficit to persist beyond 2022Headline Inflation readings continue to be stubbornly highFed Fund futures July 20

24、22Fed Fund futures July 2022US 30-yr breakevenUS 5-yr breakevenUSChinaEuropeIndiaSource:BloombergRising interest rate expectations and dollars rally to two-decade highs have been key to silver price weaknessDollar IndexImplied Fed rate Dec 22US Dollar IndexImplied Fed Fund rate Dec 22Silver$/ozSourc

25、e:BloombergBoth nominal and real yields have seen a notable riseDXY net longsUS Economic Surprise IndexUS unemployment rateUS 10-yr real yieldUS 10-yr nominal yieldUS 10-yr nominal yieldUS 10-yr real yieldSource:BloombergThe most inverted US yield curve(10yr-2yr)since the 1980s signals intensifying

26、recession fears DXY net longsUS Economic Surprise IndexUS 10-yr TIPSUS 2yr-10yr spreadUS 5yr-30yr spreadUS 10Y-2Y Treasury Yield SpreadSource:Bloomberg33Gold Forecast,2022 average:$1,790,-1%Source:Metals Focus 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Spot/Av

27、erageHighLow34Silver Forecast,2022 average:$21.00,-16%Source:Metals Focus 15 17 19 21 23 25 27Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Spot/AverageHighLowAddress6thFloor,Abbey House,74-76 St John StreetLondon EC1M 4DTUKTel:+44 20 3301 6510Email:Bloomberg Metals Focus Launch Page:MTFOBloomberg chat:IB MFO

28、CUSFor information about our products and services please contact;Disclaimer&Copyright Metals Focus Ltd,2022Although every effort has been made to undertake this work with care and diligence,Metals Focus Ltd cannot guarantee the accuracy of any forecasts or assumptions.Nothing contained in this pres

29、entation constitutes an offer to buy or sell securities or commodities and nor does it constitute advice in relation to the buying or selling of investments.It is published only for informational purposes.Metals Focus Ltd does not accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this presentation.