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1、The Chainalysis Guide toOn-Chain User Segmentationfor Crypto ExchangesJune 20230The Chainalysis Guide to On-Chain UserSegmentation for Crypto ExchangesWith Bitcoins price up over 50%in 2023,crypto winter may be thawing,but business is still toughnonetheless for exchanges.Since the start of 2022,the

2、number of active centralized cryptocurrency exchanges has fallen from750 to 640,due to pressure from decreasing transaction volumes amidst harsh market conditions,and ever-increasing competition from decentralized exchanges(DEXes).However,at the same time,the number of cryptocurrency users is still

3、increasing.We approximate that growth on the graphbelow,which shows the number of active or balance-holding personal wallets also known asunhosted wallets,as they are not hosted by a service and are under the sole control of the owner across all blockchains Chainalysis supports over the last five ye

4、ars.On-Chain User Segmentation for Crypto Exchanges1Exchanges who can win over the crypto users behind those wallets and take market share now willbe in the best position to reap the rewards when crypto winter ends and transaction volumes pick upagain.But not all users are the same.Exchanges need to

5、 segment their users,and focus ononboarding and retaining the ones that will drive the best outcomes for their business.Luckily,cryptocurrencys inherent transparency allows exchanges to segment more effectively than inany other industry.Only in cryptocurrency can you see the holdings,transaction hab

6、its,and productpreferences of your users and prospects in real time.Armed with that data,exchanges can makedata-driven decisions about where to focus their user acquisition and retention efforts.How exactlycan they do it?In this guide,well lay out a sample model for exchange user segmentation based

7、onon-chain data,and show you how those segments translate into insights that can drive ROI inexchanges user acquisition and retention strategies.Segmenting crypto users by wallet age and holdingsOn-chain data-based user segmentation can take many forms,as there are several characteristics abusiness

8、can use to compare crypto wallets.However,for the purposes of this exercise,well focus ontwo simple ones:overall holdings and wallet age.By separating wallets along those two axes,weOn-Chain User Segmentation for Crypto Exchanges2came up with six separate segments,though of course an exchange could

9、look at more segments ifthey separated wallets more granularly.1.Early retail:Wallets active since before January 1,2020 with holdings below$10,000 USD.2.Early professional:Wallets active since before January 1,2020 with holdings between$10,000 and$10 million.3.Early institutional:Wallets active sin

10、ce before January 1,2020 with holdings above$10million.4.Late retail:Wallets that became active on or after January 1,2020 with holdings below$10,000.5.Late professional:Wallets that became active on or after January 1,2020 with holdingsbetween$10,000 and$10 million.6.Late institutional:Wallets that

11、 became active on or after January 1,2020 with holdingsabove$10 million.Heres what those segments look like across the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchains.SegmentValue heldby segmentNumber ofpersonal walletsAverage heldper walletAverage activeweekly walletsEarly retail$20,629,987,00046,146,000$450250,0

12、00Early professional$124,348,074,0001,740,000$71,470142,000Early institutional$108,472,036,0009,000$11,632,3902,000Late retail$15,454,498,00071,347,000$22010,440,000Late professional$129,011,882,0002,931,000$44,0101,745,000Late institutional$176,802,249,00010,000$17,567,7904,000The vast majority of

13、active wallets in a given week are those in late retail,meaning relatively new,low-balance wallets.Interestingly,there are also far more active wallets in the late professionalsegment than the early retail segment,which underscores just how many people have come tocryptocurrency in recent years and

14、made significant investments,while many earlier entrants haveeither dropped out,shifted their activity to new wallets,or embraced a passive long-term holdingstrategy.Overall,late retail wallets represent the majority of all wallets by a wide margin,butcommand the least capital.On-Chain User Segmenta

15、tion for Crypto Exchanges3On-Chain User Segmentation for Crypto Exchanges4Overall,the relative newcomer groups of late institutional and late whale wallets account for themajority of Bitcoin and Ether currently held by personal wallets.But the more important question forthis exercise is,how do these

16、 segments interact with exchanges?Centralized exchanges generallymake money from trading fees.While we dont have the insight into exchange order books necessaryto calculate fees generated by each segment all we have is on-chain data lets assume that thetotal amount transferred on-chain to exchanges

17、from each segment roughly tracks with trading feesgenerated from each segment.Crypto is typically sent from personal wallets to exchanges to betraded rather than held,so this seems like a reasonable assumption.Since the start of 2021,late institutional wallets account for the biggest share of value

18、sent tocentralized exchanges by personal wallets at 23.6%.However,both late professional and early retailwallets are close behind at 18.8%and 19.0%respectively.Overall,in most quarters theres relativeparity among segments in value sent to exchanges,with the exception of late retail wallets and early

19、institutional wallets,which account for 11.4%and 11.9%respectively of total value sent to exchangesduring this time period.Both segments exhibit this lag for different reasons late retail walletsbecause they command the least capital compared to other segments,and early institutional walletsbecause

20、they make up the lowest share of all active wallets.On-Chain User Segmentation for Crypto Exchanges5Testing segment analysis on a real exchange:FTXcase studyOur wallet-based user segments differ in how they interact with exchanges,but what do thosedifferences mean for exchanges?And how can the peopl

21、e running exchanges translate segmentbehavior into a successful acquisition and retention strategy?Well explore this below using on-chaindata from a real,widely used exchange:FTX.While FTX of course collapsed in November 2022,before that it was one of the most popular exchanges in the industry,with

22、a huge,active user base.The on-chain footprint of those users in the months before FTXs demise give us a large,real-worlddataset to analyze through the lens of our user segmentation framework.Interestingly,FTXs user base doesnt quite match the overall landscape of personal wallets.Yes,lateretail wal

23、lets make up the vast majority of the user base,but late professionals are in second nearlyevery week,despite being the third-most common wallet segment overall,well behind thesecond-most common segment of early retail.Unsurprisingly,the two small but ultra-wealthysegments of late institutional and

24、early institutional make up the smallest share of FTXs user base but as well see below,that isnt true if we evaluate the segments in terms of inflows.On-Chain User Segmentation for Crypto Exchanges6Late institutional wallets dominate inflows to FTX,accounting for 30.0%of the total during the timeper

25、iod studied despite making up just 0.1%of the user base in an average week.Late professionalsare second,and account for 21.4%of value sent to FTX thats more in line with the 17.6%of FTXstotal user base they make up.Late retail wallets made up a small share of inflows at just 7.6%despitemaking up 75.

26、8%of the user base in the average week.Its important to note that each segmentsshare of inflows fluctuates significantly throughout the time period.While late institutional walletslead in most weeks,this was not the case at the very beginning of the time period from January2021 through mid-April 202

27、1,late institutional wallets were often the lowest-ranked segment forinflows,and it wasnt until fall of 2021 that they took firm hold as the top user segment.That patternis likely due to the fact that many more institutional investors entered cryptocurrency over the courseof 2021 as prices were tren

28、ding upwards,but it could also suggest an effort by FTXs team to courtthese high-value users.It can be difficult to compare the segments as a whole since they vary so much in number of users both within FTXs user base and across the entire crypto ecosystem and in the amount ofcryptocurrency availabl

29、e to them.Furthermore,segmenting is just the first step toward assessingindividual users and prospective users,and thinking about how best to attract and retain them.Inorder to continue that process,lets get a bit more granular and look at the inflows FTX got from theaverage wallet in each segment,k

30、eeping in mind that were assuming here that inflows translatelinearly to exchange revenue.On-Chain User Segmentation for Crypto Exchanges7Four rough tiers emerge when we look at the average wallet in each segment and the weekly inflowsthey send to FTX.We break these down below,and show the average w

31、eekly inflows FTX couldexpect from a single wallet in each segment:TierSegmentAverage weeklyinflows per walletTier 1Late institutional$2,131,134Early institutional$1,591,522Tier 2Early retail$48,124Early professional$37,462Tier 3Late professional$9,231Tier 4Late retail$701Unsurprisingly,wallets in t

32、he two institutional segments are the most valuable,as they havesignificant holdings and there arent very many of them.Tier 2 is more surprising,where we see thatearly retail wallets are a bit more valuable than early professional wallets,with average weeklyinflows of$48,000 to$35,000,and much more

33、valuable than late professional wallets,which are inOn-Chain User Segmentation for Crypto Exchanges8tier 3 and have average weekly inflows of just under$10,000.How could this be possible,especiallyconsidering that early retail wallets hold a balance of$10,000 or less?First,keep in mind that oursegme

34、ntation is based on wallets balances at the very beginning of the time period studied in thiscase January 2021 and that wallets dont switch segments even as they gain more funds.Itspossible that early retail wallets were more likely to be more strategic crypto investors than othersgiven they likely

35、have more experience in the space,and that therefore more early retail wallets sawtheir balances grow in 2021 and 2022.Its also possible that early retail wallets were more likely tohave access to funds held in other wallets or services,which could also account for balance growthover the course of t

36、he time period studied.Regardless,the unexpectedly high value of the early retailsegment shows that exchanges must pay close attention to how the behavior of their users personalwallets changes over time,and adjust their strategy accordingly.Late retail wallets accounted for the lowest volume of wee

37、kly inflows at an average of$701 perwallet.Another factor exchanges need to keep in mind when assessing user value is churn,or the rate atwhich users abandon their platform.A user who sends$50,000 per week to the exchange may soundbetter than one who sends$20,000,but if the first user churns after j

38、ust two weeks,the second maybe more valuable in the long run.Below,we look at the average weekly churn rate for each segment churn rate here means the percent of users in one week who arent active on FTX in the next week.On-Chain User Segmentation for Crypto Exchanges9The first takeaway is that earl

39、y retail wallets churn at a much higher rate than any other:15.7%perweek compared to 3.8%for the all-important late institutional segment,which has thesecond-highest churn rate.Late professionals and late retail wallets,on the other hand,churn at byfar the lowest rates 0.6%and 0.4%respectively.Inter

40、estingly,late wallet users tend to be muchmore loyal to FTX than early wallet users across all balance levels.Perhaps FTX onboarded manynew users into crypto,who then didnt want to leave and go through the hassle of learning a newplatform,while more experienced users were more comfortable jumping ar

41、ound.As we mentioned above,churn rate is nearly as important to assessing a users value to theexchange as their inflows.And,by combining the two,we can calculate the exchanges expectedtotal inflows over the users entire lifetime with the exchange for each segment.The formula is:Lifetime expected inf

42、lows=(Average inflows per week)/(Average weekly churn rate)Lets look at each segments lifetime expected inflows on the table below:SegmentAverage weeklyinflows per walletWeekly churnrateLifetime expectedinflowsEarly retail$48,12415.7%$306,522Early professional$37,4622.5%$1,498,480Early institutional

43、$1,591,5222.9%$54,880,069Late retail$7010.4%$175,250Late professional$9,2310.6%$1,538,500Late institutional$2,131,1343.8%$56,082,474Factoring in churn rate significantly alters how an exchange may value users in different segmentscompared to if they only looked at average inflows.For instance,while

44、early retail wallets initiallyappear to be slightly more valuable to FTX than early professional wallets,we see that earlyprofessionals on average send nearly 5x more crypto to FTX over their entire lifetime due to theirsignificantly lower churn rate.In fact,early retail wallets end up being less th

45、an twice as valuable aslate retail wallets,despite sending more than 60 x more to the exchange per week early retailwallets simply churn at such a high rate that most of the difference in inflows cancels out.Similarly,we see that early institutional wallets are slightly more valuable than late insti

46、tutional wallets despiteOn-Chain User Segmentation for Crypto Exchanges10sending less to the exchange per week.Late professionals and early professionals end up beingextremely close in lifetime value,even though weekly inflows from late professionals are about a thirdof those from early professional

47、s on average.Keep in mind of course that this data reflects only FTXsuser base,and that the trends may look very different for other services.These insights can be hugely valuable to an exchanges user acquisition and retention strategies,aswell as product development.For instance,imagine a scenario

48、in which FTX wants to acquire newusers by airdropping rewards to personal wallets that are active on other exchanges.By sortingtarget wallets into these segments,FTX could be precise in offering different rewards to each walletbased on their segments expected lifetime inflows.Similarly,if FTX wanted

49、 to increase retentionamong its rank and file users,it may conclude that it should focus heavily on the early retail segment,as even a small improvement in their extremely high churn rate would result in outsized returns giventheir high average weekly inflows.Regardless of the specific circumstances

50、,the ability to put a valueon each wallet would help FTX market to its users and prospective users more effectively than theycould otherwise.On-chain data changes the game for web3 marketingThe inherent transparency of blockchains is one of the biggest differentiators for cryptocurrencycompared to o

51、ther asset classes and sectors of the tech industry.We hope weve shown here howindustry participants can use that transparency to grow their business.By segmenting users withon-chain data,exchanges can allocate their strategy,marketing,and product development resourceswith the best possible efficien

52、cy and maximize the value of each user.When combined withexchanges proprietary data,such as order book activity and other relevant user information,theseinsights become even more powerful.As the cryptocurrency industry continues to grow and moreweb2 companies join web3,we look forward to seeing how

53、businesses can tap into on-chain data innew ways to reach users more effectively.On-Chain User Segmentation for Crypto Exchanges11Chainalysis PlaybookExceed your business goals with actionable on-chain user insightsAs a business growth team in web3,understanding the bigger picture of your users on-c

54、hain activity is incredibly important,but quite difficult to obtain.Access to these valuable data insights makes a significant impact on strategy,marketing,and product teams.For example,making data-informed decisions helps generate new revenue opportunities,giving you a competitive edge.It also prev

55、ents the wasteful allocation of resources towards low-value users who may eventually become inactive.The easiest way to unlock the power of on-chain user dataChainalysis Playbook is your gateway to actionable on-chain user insights for business growth.It provides seamless access to on-platform data,

56、unified with more insights about your users activity across the blockchain,to create more comprehensive profiles.Your growth teams will be empowered to quickly identify patterns in the actions made by your users and answer questions about their engagement and drop-off points.Attract more high-valueu

57、sers to your communityRe-engage at-risk or churned users based on their defined needsQuickly recognize opportunities to prioritize on your roadmapPlaybook helps you understand your users unique needs,allowing you to form strong relationships and increase user lifetime value by building products your

58、 community loves.Using Chainalysis tools,you can develop impactful churn-prevention strategies,defend against competitors,and uncover your next major growth moreBuilding trust in blockchainsAbout ChainalysisChainalysis is the blockchain data platform.We provide data,software,services,and research to

59、 government agencies,exchanges,financial institutions,and insurance and cybersecurity companies in over 70 countries.Our data powers investigation,compliance,and market intelligence software that has been used to solve some of the worlds most high-profile criminal cases and grow consumer access to c

60、ryptocurrency safely.Backed by Accel,Addition,Benchmark,Coatue,GIC,Paradigm,Ribbit,and other leading firms in venture capital,Chainalysis builds trust in blockchains to promote more financial freedom with less risk.For more information,visit .FOR MORE INSIGHTSGET IN TOUCHFOLLOW US ON TWITTERchainaly

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