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1、New Homes Construction Survey20230302It is my pleasure to introduce the Knight Frank New Homes Construction Survey 2023.For many years our highly experienced team has worked closely with national and international developers,landowners and local authorities to deliver financially viable residential

2、development projects.We have utilised this extensive network in order to ask the development and building community their thoughts regarding the future of the new homes construction market.This is the eighth edition of this report and the findings come at a particularly interesting and challenging t

3、ime for the market.I trust you will find this report and its insights useful.Please do reach out to myself or my colleagues on the Knight Frank Development Land or New Homes teams if you have any follow up queries.JAMES MEAGHER DIRECTORTwo-thirds of respondents expect their output in 2023 to be unch

4、anged or lower in comparison to 2022.This suggests that the industry will be unable to build on the progress that was made in 2022 when 29,851 units were delivered,a notable increase in comparison to the 21,000 units that were completed each year in 2019,2020 and 2021.This finding is worrying,partic

5、ularly in the context of research carried out by the Housing Commission which found that there is a need for 42,000-62,000 units each year between now and 2050 in order to satisfy demographic pressures brought on by population growth,in-migration and falling household sizes.The planning process is t

6、he greatest obstacle to increasing output in 2023,overtaking concerns about the cost of building materials and labour which was found to be the biggest obstacle in our 2022 analysis.Obtaining planning permission from Local Authorities,in addition to appeals and judicial reviews,can take anywhere in

7、the region of four years resulting in significant wait times and costs for developers.In the interim,other issues such as the rising cost of building materials and labour as well as difficulties obtaining development finance have the potential to make any planning application navigating its ways thr

8、ough the planning process unviable.Respondents predict that while annual building material and labour cost inflation will ease in 2023,it will remain at an elevated level for the year ahead 43%of respondents believe that annual building material and labour cost inflation will range between 7-9%,whil

9、e 38%predict it will vary between 4-6%.In addition,successive interest rate increases over the past year and recent turmoil in the global banking sector will make the task of raising development finance even more difficult this year according to 72%of respondents(up from 42%in last years analysis).T

10、he impact of the Residential Zoned Land Tax has already garnered considerable attention this year and as such is a key focus of this years research.The way the tax is currently structured makes no distinction between developers who have taken reasonable measures to position their sites for developme

11、nt,but who are unable to commence construction due to delays in the planning system,the rising cost of building materials and labour as well as difficulties obtaining development finance,and those who have not.For the former,the tax will represent another cost that will threaten the viability of any

12、 units within its scope.Given the scale of the challenge confronting us,we cannot have a situation where policy acts as another barrier to viability.We hope you enjoy delving into the report and please do not hesitate to contact us to discuss the findings in greater detail.ROBERT O CONNOR ASSOCIATE

13、DIRECTORNew Homes Construction Survey 20230504Knight Frank comment29,851202220,575202020,553202121,130201917,881201834%INCREASE47%UNCHANGED19%DECREASE35%INCREASE60%UNCHANGED5%DECREASEHOUSESAPARTMENTS5,51820147,21920159,829201614,2992017Supply 2023Two-thirds of respondents state that their output in

14、2023 will be unchanged or lower in comparison to 2022.Completions29,851 units were completed in 2022-a considerable increase when compared to the 21,000 units that were delivered each year in 2019,2020 and 2021.“While progress was made in 2022,completions remain considerably behind demand-there is a

15、 requirement ranging from 42,000 to 62,000 units*per year between now and 2050.”Commencements&Planning PermissionWeaker sentiment amongst respondents in terms of their output for 2023 is supported by a number of indicators which are on a downward trajectory.Source:Knight Frank Research/CSO*=Housing

16、CommissionSource:Knight Frank Research“This finding shows that the industry is unlikely to be able to capitalise on the progress that was made in 2022,with the goal of closing the gap between supply and demand remaining increasingly challenging.”0504Knight Frank Research/CSO/DHLGHPlanning permission

17、s grantedCommencements7,4112,45313,0448,74715,95013,23420,77617,57228,93922,46738,46126,23742,37121,68642,99134,17730,72426,9572014201720182020202120222015201620190706Appeals and Judicial ReviewsAppeals and judicial reviews are adding a considerable amount of time to the planning process as 32%of re

18、spondents believe that an appeal could add 11-15 months while 46%of respondents believe that a judicial review could add anywhere in excess of 21 months.15%0-6 months33%7-12 months25%13-18 months14%19-24 months13%25 months+The planning process The supply and cost of building materialsLack of availab

19、ility of suitable sites Lack of development financing The supply and cost of labour Economic and global uncertainty Demand for end-product “The planning process replaces the cost of building materials and labour which was the biggest obstacle in last years survey.”0-6MONTHS7-10MONTHS11-15MONTHS16-20

20、MONTHS21+MONTHS2%23%29%46%0%0-6MONTHS7-10MONTHS11-15MONTHS16-20MONTHS21+MONTHS5%20%32%29%14%AppealsJudicial ReviewsObstacles to Construction An analysis of responses shows that the planning process is the greatest obstacle to increasing output in 2023.Planning Delays33%of respondents report that it

21、is currently taking between 7-12 months to receive a grant of planning permission from a local authority.Source:Knight Frank Research Source:Knight Frank Research Source:Knight Frank Research*=Construction Industry FederationKnight Frank comment“In total,these results show that obtaining planning pe

22、rmission from Local Authorities,in addition to appeals and judicial reviews,can take anywhere in the region of four years resulting in significant wait times and costs for developers.There are 70,000 units*awaiting a decision from An Bord Pleanala in relation to an appeal or from the Courts in terms

23、 of a judicial review.Even if they manage to work their way through the planning process,there is a risk that many of these units could be unviable given the rising cost of building materials and labour as well as difficulties obtaining development finance in the interim.”Strongly agreeAgreeNeither

24、agree nor disagreeDisagreeStrongly disagree3%13-15%38%4-6%43%7-9%0%16-18%0%19-21%0%22%+5%1-3%3%0%7%40%23%26%8%10-12%11%47%17%23%2%4%0908Development Finance 72%of respondents believe that it will be difficult or more difficult to obtain development finance in 2023 when compared to 2022.Materials&Labo

25、urRespondents expect to see an improvement in the supply of building materials and labour in 2023.Cost InflationAnd while annual building material and labour cost inflation is forecast to ease in 2023,the majority expect it to remain at an elevated level.“Annual building material and labour cost inf

26、lation peaked at 12.8%in July 2022 before falling to 9.9%in December 2022*.An improvement in the supply of building materials and labour is likely to translate into a further easing in 2023 with 43%of respondents estimating that annual building material and labour cost inflation will range between 7

27、-9%while a further 38%predict it will vary between 4-6%.Energy price increases,which are impacting the production costs of building materials,as well as shortages in certain skilled trades will keep the level of annual building material and labour cost inflation elevated in the short-term and will c

28、ontinue to weigh on output.”“A combination of successive interest rate increases over the past year and recent turmoil in the global banking sector is contributing to the pessimism amongst developers in relation to the task of raising development finance this year which is likely to also curtail out

29、put.”LabourBuilding materialsSource:Knight Frank Research Source:Knight Frank Research Source:Knight Frank Research Knight Frank commentEasier0%Much easier0%More difficult 34%Difficult38%Unchanged28%*=CSO3%Disagree0%Strongly disagreeStronglyagree70%22%Agree5%Neither agreenor disagreeOtherIt has been

30、challengingobtaining fundingRising constructioncosts have madedevelopmentunviableLack of services(water supply,wastewater,roadinfrastructure etc.)Delays in receivinga grant of planningpermissionResidential Zoned Land Tax92%of respondents are concerned that the tax has the potential to impact the via

31、bility of the sites that fall within its scope.Residential Zoned Land Tax71%of respondents own sites that have fallen within the scope of the residential zoned land tax.1110“While many would support measures to discourage the hoarding of land,the one-size-fits-all approach to the implementation of t

32、he tax will likely penalise developers who have been trying to take reasonable measures to position their sites for development by attempting to connect them to services and by lodging planning applications.”“Ultimately,some developers will not be able to commence construction due to delays in the p

33、lanning process,the rising cost of building materials and labour as well as difficulties obtaining development finance.These developers will then have to pay the tax which will act as another cost and further weigh on output.”“Delays in obtaining planning permission and services(water,wastewater and

34、 road infrastructure etc.)are the most cited reasons by respondents as to why they have been unable to develop the sites that have fallen within the scope of the tax.”Source:Knight Frank Research Source:Knight Frank Research Knight Frank comment22%REST OFLEINSTER 2%INTERNATIONALLY68%DUBLIN3%CONNAUGH

35、T/ULSTER 5%MUNSTERBelow is a breakdown of where our survey respondents developSource:Knight Frank Research Land BankOf those looking to add to their landbank in 2023,52%of respondents will look to acquire sites that are residentially zoned and which have planning permission in place.5%A site that ha

36、s thepotential to berezoned asresidential52%A site that is residentiallyzoned and which has planning permissionin place43%A site that is residentiallyzoned,but which has noplanning permissionin place“Given the delays in the planning system and the introduction of the residential zoned land tax,this

37、finding is unsurprising with developers increasingly nervous about taking on planning risk.However,there is a shortage of such opportunities on the market which will act as a further barrier to output.”Source:Knight Frank Research Knight Frank comment1312Two-thirds of respondents state that their ou

38、tput in 2023 will be unchanged or lower in comparison to 2022.The planning process is now the greatest barrier to increasing output in 2023.Source:Knight Frank Research Summary33%report that it is taking between 7-12 months to receive a grant of planning permission from a local authority.In addition

39、,32%believe that an appeal could add 11-15 months to the planning process while 46%estimate that a judicial review could add anywhere in excess of 21 months.While annual building material and labour cost inflation is expected to ease in 2023,it will remain at an elevated level with 43%estimating it

40、will range from 7-9%while a further 38%predict it will vary between 4-6%.72%expect that it will be difficult or more difficult to obtain development finance in 2023 when compared to 2022.92%are concerned that the residential zoned land tax has the potential to impact the viability of the sites that

41、fall within its scope.1514 HT Meagher OReilly trading as Knight FrankThis report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way.Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information,analysis,views and projections presented in this report,no resp

42、onsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by HT Meagher OReilly trading as Knight Frank for any loss or damage resultant from any use of,reliance on or reference to the contents of this document.As a general report,this material does not necessarily represent the view of HT Meagher OReilly

43、trading as Knight Frank in relation to particular properties or projects.Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is not allowed without prior written approval of HT Meagher OReilly trading as Knight Frank to the form and content within which it appears.HT Meagher OReilly trading as Knight Fr

44、ank,Registered in Ireland No.385044,PSR Reg.No.001266.HT Meagher OReilly New Homes Limited trading as Knight Frank,Registered in Ireland No.428289,PSR Reg.No.001880.Registered Office 20-21 Upper Pembroke Street,Dublin 2.Dublin Office Market Overview Q1 2023 Active Capital 2022TRENDS IN GLOBAL REAL E

45、STATE INVESTMENT17th editionThe global perspective on prime property and Wealth Report 2023The Dublin Office MarketQ1 2023Special Focus Movements in“Grey”space are setto disrupt the market in Investment Market Overview December December Investment MarketOccupier TrendsInvestment TrendsMarket Outlook

46、Dublin Logistics&Industrial Market Review 2022Occupier and investment market trends in the Dublin logistics and industrial sector.Dublin Logistics&Industrial Market Review 2022knightfrank.ie/researchResearch,March 2023Primark Distribution Facility,Newbridge,Co.Kildare acquired by Knight Frank Irelan

47、d for Union InvestmentJoan Henry Chief Economist&Director of Research Robert OConnor Associate Director James Meagher Director Ray Palmer-Smith Director ray.palmer- Evan Lonergan Director Sean Cadogan Research Analyst K E Y C O N T A C T S:R E C E N T M A R K E T-L E A D I N G R E S E A R C H P U B L I C A T I O N SKnight Frank Research Reports are available at