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1、Implementing Clean Energy TransitionsFocus on road transport in emerging economiesThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more

2、.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territo

3、ry,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKor

4、eaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TrkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:Argentina BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegal

5、Singapore South Africa Thailand UkraineINTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYImplementing Clean Energy Transitions Abstract Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|3 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Abstract This report assesses the impact of the road transport sector on energy demand,CO2 emissions and air pollution i

6、n several selected major emerging economies over the coming decades under several IEA modelling scenarios.Most notably the Announced Pledges Scenario(APS)aims to show to what extent announced ambitions and targets,including the most recent ones,are on the path to deliver emissions reductions require

7、d to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.Bringing about a road transport decarbonisation pathway in line with the APS in the selected major emerging economies-Brazil,Peoples Republic of China,India,Indonesia,Mexico and South Africa-will require significant enhancement of existing policies and the int

8、roduction of new innovative policies and measures in each of selected countries.Our report sets out six policy areas critical to the achievement of the road transport transitions and a series of recommendations for strengthening financing for the sector.Importantly,the report provides detailed refer

9、ence to a wide range of policy measures and good practice already in place in many major emerging economies elsewhere to facilitate knowledge sharing among countries.It also places a special emphasis on the road transport sectors of India and Indonesia.These countries are IEA partners in their respe

10、ctive regions and benefit from an enhanced programme of work.Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Acknowledgements Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|4 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Acknowledgements Implementing Clean Energy Transitions:Focus on road transport in emerging economies is a report pre

11、pared by the Energy and Environment Division of the International Energy Agency(IEA).David Fischer,Project Co-ordinator and Climate Policy Analyst,and Kieran McNamara,Acting Head of the Environment and Climate Change Unit,led and co-ordinated the publication.The authors are David Fischer,Kieran McNa

12、mara,Gabriel Saive,Xiushan Chen,Insa Handschuch,Britta Labuhn,Theresa Gebhardt and Bihter Glsoy.Tom Howes and Sara Moarif provided valuable feedback,support and overall guidance to the project.The report benefited from a wealth of data and insights provided from across the IEA,in particular the Ener

13、gy Demand Outlook Division,the Energy Technology Policy Division,the Energy Supply and Investment Outlook Division,the Energy Efficiency Division and the Renewable Energy Division.The authors would like to thank especially the following current and former IEA colleagues:Oskaras Alsauskas,Stphanie Bo

14、uckaert,Elizabeth Connelly,Laura Cozzi,Davide DAmbrosio,Tanguy de Bienassis,Araceli Fernandez Pales,Emma Gordon,Timur Guel,Mathilde Huismans,Martin Kueppers,Shane McDonagh,Jeremy Moorhouse,Leonardo Paoli,Apostolos Petropoulos,Ryszard Pospiech,Alison Pridmore,Aditya Ramji and Jacob Teter.The authors

15、would also like to thank the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,in particular Jens Borken-Kleefeld,for providing data on air quality and health co-benefits of road transport transitions.Sincere thanks also to Jean-Christian Brunke for expert advice and feedback on the marginal abat

16、ement cost curves.Valuable contributions to and feedback on the report were also provided by other IEA colleagues:Edith Bayer,Alejandra Bernal,Natalie Kauf,Rebecca McKimm,Hugo Salamanca and Cornelia Schenk.The authors are also grateful for valuable comments and feedback from external experts,includi

17、ng:Koichiro Aikawa(Honda),Pierpaolo Cazzola(University of California,Davis),Nikolas Hill(Ricardo),Wang Meng(Sina),Hidenori Moriya(Toyota),Andi Novianto(Government of Indonesia),Kentaro Oe(Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs),Rizky Aditya Putra(ASEAN Centre for Energy),Saon Ray(Indian Council for Resea

18、rch on International Economic Relations),Simon Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Acknowledgements Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|5 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Roberts(C40 Cities),Yin Le(Energy Foundation China)and Lulu Xue(World Resources Institute).Sincere thanks go to Caren Brown,who ed

19、ited the report.The authors would also like to thank the IEA Communications and Digital Office,particularly Curtis Brainard,Jon Custer,Astrid Dumond,Isabelle Nonain-Semelin,Clara Vallois,Gregory Viscusi,and Therese Walsh,for providing valuable editorial and publishing support.This analysis was carri

20、ed out as part of the IEA Clean Energy Transitions Programme.The individuals and organisations that contributed to this report are not responsible for any opinion or judgement it contains.Any error or omission is the sole responsibility of the IEA.For questions and comments,please contact the Energy

21、 and Environment Division at climate.changeiea.org.Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Table of contents Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|6 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Table of contents Executive summary.8 Chapter 1.Road transport today.14 Composition of road transport.15 Structural drivers o

22、f change.18 Development of CO2 emissions .20 Road transport investment.23 IEA scenarios.25 Chapter 2.Road transport at a cross roads.27 Changes in fleets and fuels.27 CO2 emissions pathways.31 Policies for road transport decarbonisation.38 Cost-effective abatement solutions.43 Additional air quality

23、 co-benefits of a road transport transition .51 Chapter 3.Implementing road transport transitions.53 Structural barriers to enhanced policy ambition.53 Financing the transition .55 Key road transport policy interventions.64 Recommendations for India and Indonesia .80 Annex.85 Abbreviations and acron

24、yms.85 Units.85 List of figures Figure 1.1 Road vehicle fleet,2000-2021.15 Figure 1.2 Road vehicle fleet by mode and share of electric vehicles in selected major emerging economies,2000-2021.16 Figure 1.3 Age profile and geographic distribution of road transport vehicles,2021.17 Figure 1.4 Road tran

25、sport fuel consumption by mode,2021.18 Figure 1.5 GDP per capita and growth rate,2021.19 Figure 1.6 Annual population growth and urbanisation rate,2000-2021.20 Figure 1.7 Evolution of road transport CO2 emissions by mode,2000-2021.21 Figure 1.8 Road transport CO2 emissions,2000-2021.22 Figure 1.9 Gr

26、owth of CO2 emissions in certain energy sectors for the selected major emerging economies,2000-2021.22 Figure 1.10 Investment in road transport,2014-2021.24 Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Table of contents Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|7 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 2.1 Road veh

27、icle fleet and share of EVs in total road vehicle fleet in the selected major emerging economies,in the Stated Policies Scenario and the Announced Pledges Scenario,2021-2050.29 Figure 2.2 Road transport fuel consumption in the selected major emerging economies in the Stated Policies Scenario and the

28、 Announced Pledges Scenario,2000-2050.30 Figure 2.3 Road transport CO2 emissions in the Announced Pledges Scenario versus the Stated Policies Scenario,2000-2050.31 Figure 2.4 Road transport CO2 emissions in the selected major emerging economies by mode in the Stated Policies Scenario and the Announc

29、ed Pledges Scenario,2000-2050.33 Figure 2.5 Road transport CO2 emissions in India and Indonesia by mode in the Announced Pledges Scenario,2021-2050.35 Figure 2.6 Enablers of road transport decarbonisation in India,Announced Pledges Scenario versus Stated Policies Scenario,2010-2050.35 Figure 2.7 Eff

30、ective carbon rates in road transport,2021.41 Figure 2.8 Selected CO2 abatement costs in Indias road transport sector in the Announced Pledges Scenario,2022-2050.45 Figure 2.9 Selected CO2 abatement costs in Indonesias road transport sector in the Announced Pledges Scenario,2022-2050.47 Figure 2.10

31、Marginal abatement cost for the switch of one conventional car to a battery electric powertrain over time in India and Indonesia in the Announced Pledges Scenario,2022-2050.50 Figure 2.11 Change in NOx emissions related to road transport by 2050 in the Stated Policies Scenario and the Announced Pled

32、ges Scenario,relative to 2021.52 Figure 3.1 Road transport investment compared to their average annual investment needs,2016-2021,and in the Stated Policies Scenario and the Announced Pledges Scenario,2026-2030.56 Figure 3.2 Indicators of cost of capital for debt(left)and equity(right),2016 and 2020

33、.61 List of boxes Box 1.1 Fossil fuel subsidies and energy transitions.24 Box 2.1 Power sector decarbonisation in the selected emerging economies.33 Box 2.2 Transport emissions in Indonesia.36 Box 2.3 Critical minerals and the EV supply chain.48 Box 3.1 Mobilising finance for public transport infras

34、tructure in EMDEs.68 Box 3.2 Fuel economy standards for two-and three-wheelers.74 List of tables Table 2.1 Road transport policy landscape in the selected major emerging economies.39 Table 2.2 Fuel economy standards in the selected major emerging economies.40 Table 3.1 Summary of key road transport

35、intervention areas and measures for the selected major emerging economies.64 Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Executive summary Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|8 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary The road transport sector is a cornerstone of robust economic development.It acco

36、unted for around 20%of global final energy consumption and about 50%of oil demand in 2021,a similar share to 2000,despite rising demand for transport services.Factors such as transport activity,shifts between transport modes,energy efficiency,and the carbon content of fuels shape energy demand and C

37、O2 emissions and pollution from the sector.As populations and incomes grow across a wider range of countries,demand for transport services is projected to rise,along with the need to decarbonise.One of the objectives of this report is to broaden understanding of where the road transport sector is he

38、ading in major emerging economies,particularly in light of recent net zero pledges.The major emerging economies analysed in this report Brazil,Peoples Republic of China,India,Indonesia,Mexico and South Africa represented around 14%of global road transport energy demand in 2000;by 2021,this share was

39、 27%.Their total vehicle stock was around 185 million in 2000;at end-2021 it was about one billion,a fivefold increase.This compares to an increase of around 40%in the rest of the world over the same period.Total road transport fuel consumption in these emerging economies is projected to rise to 725

40、 million tonnes of oil equivalent(Mtoe)by 2050 in the IEAs Stated Policies Scenario(STEPS),with fossil fuel use peaking around 2030 and declining thereafter.By contrast,in the Announced Pledges Scenario(APS),fuel consumption in the road transport sector in major emerging economies peaks at around 66

41、0 Mtoe by the end of this decade.Fuel economy improvements,along with greater electricity use,and to a much lesser extent hydrogen use,sees fuel consumption decline to 500 Mtoe by 2050,despite rising vehicle fleet numbers.Electricity accounts for more than 40%of transport energy consumption as the e

42、lectric vehicles fleet expands,highlighting the importance of decarbonising generation and modernising electricity grids.Global CO2 emissions in the road transport sector increased by almost 40%between 2000 and 2021 to almost 6 Gt CO2.Greater emissions from light-duty vehicles and trucks in the sele

43、cted emerging economies accounted for around 60%of this increase,with India and China making up for the largest share.In these countries,direct CO2 emissions from the road transport sector reached more than 1.5 Gt CO2 in 2021 and continue to rise until mid-2030 to a peak of around 1.8 Gt CO2 in the

44、STEPS,decreasing thereafter to 1.6 Gt CO2.1 In India and 1 All CO2 numbers quoted in this report are direct CO2 emissions except where otherwise stated.Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Executive summary Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|9 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Brazil,emissions decreas

45、e only after 2040,while other countries either see their road transport-related emissions stabilising closer to 2050,in the case of Indonesia,or continuing to rise,in the cases of Mexico and South Africa.In contrast,in the APS,emissions from road transport in the selected emerging economies peak by

46、the mid-2020s and drop to less than 0.6 Gt CO2 by 2050.Two-thirds of this decrease comes from China and India,which aim to achieve carbon neutrality before or by 2060 and 2070 respectively.The ambitious policies in the APS could generate around 13 Gt CO2 in cumulative emissions savings in the road t

47、ransport sector.In the APS,at least 70%of the total car stock is electric in all major emerging economies by 2050,except for Brazil with its greater share of biofuels-powered vehicles.Direct emissions from cars in selected major emerging economies could drop to 140 Mt CO2 by 2050,down about 80%from

48、2021.The road freight sector faces more difficulty decarbonising.Not only will economic expansion and population growth boost demand for goods transport,but electric or fuel cell options are not always available or cost-effective.In both IEA scenarios,emissions from trucks are projected to continue

49、upwards until the end of this decade.In the APS,however,the major emerging economies see a fall from 565 Mt CO2 in 2021 to 400 Mt CO2 in 2050.Even in this more ambitious pathway,trucks remain by far the largest emitter in the transport sector.Governments play a vital role in leading clean energy tra

50、nsitions in the road transport sector.Major emerging economies have an opportunity to leap-frog outdated existing road transport models by implementing specific transport policy interventions,by bringing greater clarity to the policy decision-making process and by empowering implementing agencies.Th

51、e investment and finance challenge In the STEPS,average annual end-use investment in road transport needs to reach USD 110 billion in the second half of the 2020s with an additional 40%needed annually through 2050.In the APS,annual investment will need to reach USD 150 billion between 2026 and 2030,

52、rising to over USD 230 billion in the period to 2050.This expansion requires substantial national efforts to improve the environment for clean energy investment,as well as international efforts to increase availability of capital for low-carbon mobility in emerging economies.Most of the investment i

53、n the APS occurs in China,but investment is set to grow more rapidly in other major emerging economies,notably in India and Indonesia.Annual spending on EVs in the major emerging economies needs to increase to USD 90 billion in 2026-2030 in the APS,and planned policies if fully implemented would del

54、iver 80%of this investment.A wider gap exists in energy efficiency spending,which needs to double towards 2030 in the APS,but looks Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Executive summary Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|10 I EA.CC BY 4.0.set to remain at current levels without fur

55、ther policy efforts.In the long term,spending on electrification is set to account for an increasingly larger share of investment in road transport,while investment in energy efficiency declines in the APS as conventional internal combustion engine vehicles are progressively substituted with electri

56、c.The road transport transition also requires investment in public charging infrastructure and associated grids.In addition,average annual spending on private EV chargers in the selected emerging economies needs to increase to nearly USD 40 billion in 2026-2030 in the APS,compared to less than USD 1

57、.0 billion annually in 2016-2021.Limited financing presents a significant barrier for major road transport investments in emerging economies.Strained public sector budgets,lack of household capital,shallow banking systems,limited availability of loans,and high capital costs all hamper development of

58、 the sector.Strengthening domestic banks and household finances,removing market distortions,and targeted use of state-owned enterprises to create demand are key elements to address financial obstacles and to channel investments.International finance instruments such as overseas development aid,clima

59、te finance,multilateral finance,as well as blended finance(such as the Just Energy Transition Partnerships with South Africa and Indonesia),can also help overcome financing barriers.Conclusion and recommendations Governments have a large potential toolbox at hand to decarbonise the road transport se

60、ctor,and a mix of targets,policies and regulations will be needed to align road transport in major emerging economies along an APS pathway.These policies will shape the technological development of different powertrains and transport modes and will influence consumer purchasing decisions.Strengthen

61、transport policy making:A robust road transport transition requires an overarching transport decarbonisation strategy within a national transport plan.Developing a comprehensive national transport plan should involve all key stakeholders to garner acceptance.South Africas Green Transport Strategy,fo

62、r example,aims to build a safe,efficient,reliable,and affordable transport system that supports sustainable socio-economic development.In many major emerging economies,several institutions and agencies have roles in the transport sector.Transitions in the road transport sector could also be reinforc

63、ed by introducing carbon pricing,complemented by targeted support for vulnerable and low-income households.Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Executive summary Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|11 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Promote public transport and demand management:Policies that incenti

64、vise shifts from privately owned vehicles to public transport,in both urban and rural areas,are needed to reduce demand for car use while encouraging safer mobility and reducing congestion.The Curitiba bus rapid transit system in Brazil and the TransJakarta bus rapid transit system in Indonesia are

65、successful examples.Electrification of buses and trains accelerates the decarbonisation of public transport while reducing air pollution.Public procurement requirements for zero-emission vehicles,subsidies for the purchase of electric buses,and CO2 standards can support this shift.Public transport m

66、easures should be supported with initiatives to encourage and enable active mobility such as cycling,walking or other innovative measures to limit use of private car transport for short-distance trips.Colombia,for example,adopted a law in 2016 that strongly incentivises employees to cycle to work wh

67、ile Mexico City added around 50 km of bike lanes during the pandemic and plans to increase the length of its bike lanes to 600 km by 2024.Accelerate the electrification of cars and two-/three-wheelers:While EV and battery costs have declined,EVs remain much more expensive than comparable internal co

68、mbustions engine(ICE)models.A growing number of major emerging economies are introducing or expanding purchase subsidies:India extended its flagship FAME programme in 2019,while China and Indonesia reduced purchase taxes for EVs.Measures such as special lanes,parking spaces,and zero-emissions zones

69、have been introduced in China and parts of India to bolster demand for EVs without imposing significant cost on the state.Fleet mandates can stimulate demand for EVs:the Government of Delhi proposed a draft regulation in July 2022 requiring delivery and transportation businesses to electrify some of

70、 their fleet,with required shares increasing over time.Prioritising an early transition of fleet vehicles can also help establish a second-hand market for EVs,which in turn would make electric cars more affordable for much of the population.Policy makers need to ensure that sufficient,reliable,and e

71、asy-to-use charging is available.Most charging takes place at home and at workplaces,and many countries offer subsidies or tax incentives to encourage private investment.India,for example,integrated a target of up to 20%of parking space for EV charging facilities in its Electric Vehicle Supply Equip

72、ment building code.In many emerging economies,battery swapping allows the sale of EVs without batteries,lowering upfront purchase costs.Enhance fuel economy standards:Fuel economy standards,if set at sufficiently stringent levels and regularly updated,can push manufacturers to produce zero-and low-e

73、missions vehicles instead of focusing on improving the fuel efficiency of ICEs.Standards must be Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Executive summary Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|12 I EA.CC BY 4.0.developed and applied within a robust regulatory framework,ideally based on te

74、sting procedures that reflects real-world driving conditions,such as the Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure.Zero-emissions truck regulations and standards can also incentivise market demand for electric and fuel cell trucks,while binding targets such as Californias Advanced Clean Truc

75、k Regulation can provide important signals to the market.Public and private sector research and development(R&D)investment and market regulations can be combined with domestic,regional,or global partnership programmes to create an ecosystem of regulators,manufacturers,and research organisations to a

76、ccelerate innovation in the trucking sector.Measures to improve flow and logistics can optimise road freight transport usage and mitigate some of its CO2 emissions.Brazil uses its PortoLog system to coordinate the arrival of ships and trucks at terminals,minimising waiting times for both.Boost the u

77、ptake of sustainable biofuels:Blending mandates remain the principal policy instrument to accelerate biofuel use.Indonesia supports its blending mandates with subsidies to offset price differences between biodiesel and conventional diesel.Government programmes and industry innovation will be needed

78、to strengthen supply chains,seek out new sources of supply,and develop new production techniques.Finance and investment Emerging market and developing economies rely to a large extent on public finance to fund the transition.These sources include public institutions,such as development banks and inf

79、rastructure funds,which play important roles by extending credit lines and guarantees to financial institutions and companies,reducing risks and improving the bankability of projects.In the transport sector,most future investments in end-uses by 2030,notably EVs and EV-related energy efficiency,are

80、expected to come from private sources.Public financing continues to help de-risk investment and attract private investment.It also supports market uptake through public procurement and provision of grants or guarantees to consumers and infrastructure,such as EV charging stations and mass transit.Ind

81、onesia,for example,has identified public-private partnerships as a key mechanism to encourage private investment to meet some of its funding needs to address infrastructure gaps.The country has established a comprehensive policy framework and governance structure,supported by several public financin

82、g instruments,as well as a dedicated unit for public-private partnership management within the Ministry of Finance.Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Executive summary Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|13 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Taxonomies can strengthen sustainable finance frameworks.Chi

83、na,for example,issued a Green Bond Endorsed Projects Catalogue to guide financial institutions and corporate institutions on the issuance of green bonds.Developing corporate bond markets to make debt finance more accessible to the private sector can play an important role in reducing the cost of cap

84、ital for clean energy transition projects.Measures such as consumer car loans to purchase zero-emission vehicles also make a difference.South Africa established the Climate Finance Facility,which is a specialised lending facility to increase private investment in climate-related infrastructure proje

85、cts.Strategic mandates on clean energy transitions for international financial institutions(e.g.,multilateral development banks)and greater use of blended finance to leverage private capital can be used to lower costs and support availability of longer-term capital.The South Africa and Indonesia Jus

86、t Energy Transition Partnerships are examples of international co-operation in financing clean energy transitions in emerging economies which could be extended to the transport sector.Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 1.Road transport today Focus on road transport in emerging economies P

87、AGE|14 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Chapter 1.Road transport today Road transport accounted for around 20%of global final energy consumption and about 50%of global oil demand in 2021.This is a similar share to 2000,despite rising demand for transport services and vehicle numbers.The selected major emerging econom

88、ies analysed in this report Brazil,Peoples Republic of China(“China”hereafter),India,Indonesia,Mexico and South Africa2 represented around 14%of global road transport energy demand in 2000.In 2021,this share increased to 27%.Demand for the transport of people and goods increased significantly from 2

89、000 to 2021 owing to population growth and economic expansion.This trend was more pronounced in some of the selected emerging economies,notably China,India and Indonesia.In 2021,Covid-19 pandemic restrictions were lifted and passenger and goods movements recovered following a decline in 2020.As a re

90、sult,global direct CO2 emissions owing to fossil fuel combustion in the transport sector increased by 8%,to nearly 7.7 Gt CO2,compared to 7.1 Gt CO2 in 2020.Transport demand is projected to climb in coming years as demand for goods and movement increases.Meeting the IEA Announced Pledges Scenario(AP

91、S)however,will require transport sector emissions to fall by almost 50%,to about 4 Gt CO2 in annual emissions by 2030.More than 95%of CO2 emissions in the road transport sector in 2021 were attributable to oil consumption.Road transport is the largest consumer of fossil fuels of any sector.It accoun

92、ts for around 30%of global CO2 emissions from enduse sectors.The selected emerging economies made up around a quarter of global CO2 emissions from road transport in 2021 compared to 14%in 2000.In absolute terms,direct CO2 emissions from road transport in these major emerging economies almost tripled

93、 from 2000 to 2021,whereas global CO2 emissions from the sector increased by around 38%.While per capita CO2 emissions from road transport are rising in these major emerging economies,they remain well below those of advanced economies,for example:0.6 t CO2 in China,0.2 t CO2 in India and 0.7 t CO2 i

94、n South Africa compared to 2.1 t CO2 per capita in advanced economies.3 2 When this report refers to selected major emerging economies or selected emerging economies,it always pertains to the analysed countries of Brazil,China,India,Indonesia,Mexico and South Africa.3 Advanced economies refer to the

95、 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development regional grouping and Bulgaria,Croatia,Cyprus,Malta and Romania.Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 1.Road transport today Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|15 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Projected growth in population,economic ac

96、tivity and transport demand demonstrates that energy transitions in the road transport sector will require a range of government decisions before 2030 to simultaneously meet transport demand and clean energy objectives.This chapter sets out the status of the road transport sector in the selected eme

97、rging economies.It assesses trends in terms of the composition of the vehicle fleet,the structural factors underlying those changes,the implications of growth in vehicle numbers in terms of CO2 emissions and how the sector has evolved in terms of investment since 2000.The chapter closes with a brief

98、 description of the IEA World Energy Outlook scenarios utilised in the report.Composition of road transport In 2021,there were around 2.3 billion vehicles(including two-and three-wheelers)on the worlds roads.Cars4 accounted for the bulk of the global vehicle stock,with around 1.4 billion vehicles co

99、mpared to around 800 million two decades previously.In contrast,in the selected emerging economies,two-and three-wheelers outnumbered cars.Figure 1.1 Road vehicle fleet,2000-2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.The number of vehicles in these major emerging economies has increased substantially over the last two deca

100、des.In 2000,their total vehicle stock was around 185 million.At the end of 2021,it was about 1 billion,or a near fivefold increase.This compares to an increase of 42%in the rest of the world over the 4 Except where otherwise indicated,in this report,the category“cars”consists of personal light-duty

101、vehicles and light commercial vehicles,while“trucks”consists of medium-freight trucks and heavy-freight trucks.0 200 400 600 8001 0001 20020002005201020152021Road vehicle fleet(millions)SouthAfricaMexicoIndonesiaIndiaChinaBrazilImplementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 1.Road transport today Foc

102、us on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|16 I EA.CC BY 4.0.same period.China accounted for 52%of the increase,followed by India(29%)and Indonesia(11%).In 2000,the vehicle stock per 1 000 inhabitants in advanced economies was around 460 vehicles;by 2021 it had increased to 480 vehicles per 1 0

103、00 inhabitants.In China,the vehicle stock per 1 000 inhabitants was around 65 vehicles in 2000;in 2021,it had increased to more than 350 vehicles per 1 000 inhabitants.This is above the global average of around 290 vehicles per 1 000 inhabitants,but below that of advanced economies.Figure 1.2 Road v

104、ehicle fleet by mode and share of electric vehicles in selected major emerging economies,2000-2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.The rate of increase in vehicle numbers varied across modes of road transport and among the selected emerging economies since 2000.Cars(almost sevenfold increase)and two-and three-wheeler

105、s(more than threefold increase)had the greatest rates of increase in numbers,supported by strong economic growth and the resultant increase in demand for mobility.The number of trucks has also rose significantly,by almost 300%,as incomes rose and demand for goods increased among these major emerging

106、 economies.In 2000,the two-and three-wheelers(61%)and cars(32%)subsectors accounted for most of the vehicles on roads.While they continue to represent the bulk of vehicles,in 2021,their shares changed.The share of two-and three-wheelers declined to 50%of all vehicles,and the share of cars to 45%,ref

107、lecting increased income and related changes in consumer preferences.The share of EVs in the vehicle fleet increased greatly over the past two decades.In 2010,the share was less than 1%.The share increased to 5%in 2021 and to almost 50 million vehicles in the selected emerging economies.However,this

108、 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%0 200 400 600 8001 0001 20020002005201020152021Road vehicle fleet(millions)2/3-wheelersBusesTrucksCarsShare of EVsImplementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 1.Road transport today Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|17 I EA.CC BY 4.0.increase is highly concentrated:C

109、hina accounted for the highest share of EVs(48 million vehicles in 2021),over 80%of which were two-and three-wheelers.Figure 1.3 Age profile and geographic distribution of road transport vehicles,2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:Adapted and updated from IEA(2020),Energy Technology Perspectives 2020.By the

110、end of 2021,the global passenger car fleet was about 1.2 billion vehicles,with advanced economies accounting for almost 70%of the total.Broadly speaking,the fleets in the selected emerging economies are younger than in many other countries,in particular advanced economies.Since 2010,there has been a

111、 dramatic shift in the location of where new cars are sold.China overtook the European and North American markets in the early 2010s.The result is that the car fleet in the selected emerging economies is newer than in advanced ones.Around 70%of the cars on Chinas roads are less than a decade old.Tru

112、cks and buses follow the same general pattern.However,the shifts in new sales of these modes are even starker.Most trucks sold in the past decade were in these major emerging economies,as were two-thirds of buses.0 200 400 600 80020yearsRoad vehicle fleet (millions)CarsBrazilChinaIndiaIndonesiaMexic

113、oSouth AfricaRest of the world0 10 20 30 40 50 6020yearsTrucks0 100 200 300 400 500 60020years2/3-wheelersImplementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 1.Road transport today Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|18 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 1.4 Road transport fuel consumption by mode,2021

114、IEA.CC BY 4.0.Fuel consumption patterns vary significantly among the selected emerging economies.This reflects the various structural differences and geographies and the resultant demand for transport services.Those countries that experience the highest levels of economic growth also have the greate

115、st increases in demand for transport services.In Brazil,China,Mexico and South Africa,the cars subsector accounted for the largest share of fuel consumption;in India and Indonesia,the trucks subsector consumes most fuel.Structural drivers of change The evolution of transport energy demand and greenh

116、ouse gas(GHG)emissions depends on factors such as changes in transport activity,shares of activity in different transport modes,the energy efficiency of each mode and the carbon content of fuels.Differing characteristics of urban and non-urban mobility also shape the trajectory of shape the trajecto

117、ry of energy and emissions from transport from transport.In many selected emerging economies,where average income and car ownership levels are lower than in advanced economies while a larger share of travel occurs by public transport(bus and rail).Transport activity varies greatly;for example,in Ind

118、onesia and South Africa,bus travel is the primary mode of transport,whereas rail travel is more widespread in China and India.In contrast,Mexico has a high share of passenger activity in cars and high ownership of large cars.This may be influenced by the country being an oil producer and an importer

119、 of used cars from the United States.World gross domestic product(GDP)per capita increased at an annual average rate of 2%a year from 2000 to 2021.Growth among the selected emerging economies varied significantly over the same period.Populations and 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%1

120、00%WorldBrazilChinaIndiaIndonesiaMexicoSouth AfricaAnnual growth Final fuel consumption2/3-wheelersBusesTrucksCarsAnnual growth(2000-2021,right axis)Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 1.Road transport today Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|19 I EA.CC BY 4.0.urbanisation

121、rates have also increased,which,together with economic growth,affect transport and energy use.Figure 1.5 GDP per capita and growth rate,2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Growing economies generate demand for goods and services;therefore,demand for transport tends to increase as economies grow.Data for the past 20

122、years suggest this has been the case for the selected emerging economies.China,India and Indonesia have all experienced rapid economic growth over the past two decades.In the case of China,the economy expanded at an annual average rate of almost 8%a year on a per capita basis from 2000 to 2021.In In

123、dia,it has been 5%and in Indonesia around 3.5%.Economic growth has been less pronounced over the same period in Brazil,Mexico and South Africa,where the economies expanded by around 0.5-1%on a per capita basis.1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%05 00010 00015 00020 00025 000WorldBrazilChinaIndiaIndonesiaMexicoSouth

124、AfricaGDP per capita(USD 2021,PPP)GDP percapitaAnnual growth(2000-2021)Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 1.Road transport today Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|20 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 1.6 Annual population growth and urbanisation rate,2000-2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.India,Chi

125、na and Indonesia have experienced the largest population increases,most notably India,where the population increased by around 335 million over the past two decades.Chinas population grew at a slower pace and increased by around 150 million people,while Indonesias population expanded by 65 million.T

126、ogether,these three countries accounted for a third of the increase in the worlds population over the past 20 years.Globally,about half of total passenger transport activity(measured in passenger kilometres)now takes place in urban environments.Rising incomes have driven demand for more mobility,as

127、well as the greater comfort and status afforded by personal vehicles.This demand is expected to continue as incomes rise across a wider range of countries and a broader base of populations.All the selected emerging economies have experienced growth in urbanisation rates,reflecting a global trend ove

128、r the past 20 years as more people move to cities for better opportunities,jobs and income.Continued rapid urbanisation and industrialisation pushes up demand for services such as transport.In 2000,less than half of the worlds population lived in urban areas;in 2021,this rate had increased to 57%.In

129、 China,the rate of urbanisation increased from 36%to 62%over the same period,and in Indonesia,it grew from 42%to 57%.Brazil and Mexico are among the most urbanised countries in the world,which explains their lower annual urbanisation rates.Development of CO2 emissions Global CO2 emissions in the roa

130、d transport sector increased by 38%from 2000 to 2021,from around 4 250 Mt CO2 to 5 860 Mt CO2.The selected emerging 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%WorldBrazilChinaIndiaIndonesiaMexicoSouth AfricaAnnualpopulationgrowthAnnualurbanizationrateImplementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 1.Road transpo

131、rt today Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|21 I EA.CC BY 4.0.economies accounted for around 60%of this increase,with increased emissions from cars,vans and trucks.China and India accounted for the largest shares of the increases.Figure 1.7 Evolution of road transport CO2 emissions b

132、y mode,2000-2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.The cars subsector accounted for about 13%of global direct CO2 emissions in 2021.The specific fuel consumption of new vehicles has declined,owing to improvements in engine,powertrain and vehicle technology.However,a long-term trend of increasing vehicle size and power

133、has slowed progress.To remain on track with the pathway in the APS,much more rapid improvements in the fuel economy of new conventional(ICE)vehicles are needed,even as the share of EV sales continues to grow.CO2 emissions from road transport in the selected emerging economies increased significantly

134、 from 2000 to 2021.In 2000,direct CO2 emissions from the sector were 583 Mt CO2;in 2021,this had more than doubled,to around 1 540 Mt CO2.However,the rate of increase in emissions was lower than that of the number of vehicles on the road.Trucks(40%)and cars(35%)accounted for three-quarters of road t

135、ransport CO2 emissions in 2000 in selected emerging economies.In 2021,their combined share had increased to 86%.In contrast,the share of sector emissions from two-and three-wheelers declined from 9%in 2000 to 7%in 2021,despite more than quadrupling in number.This decline reflects increasing electrif

136、ication rates in China.Heavy-freight trucks,which accounted for less than 2%of all vehicles on the road in 2021 in the selected emerging economies,contributed 25%of all CO2 emissions in the sector.01 0002 0003 0004 0005 0006 0002000 Major emerging economies Rest of the world2021Mt CO2WorldCarsTrucks

137、Buses2/3-wheelers0 5001 0001 5002 00020002005201020152021Selected major emerging economiesImplementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 1.Road transport today Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|22 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 1.8 Road transport CO2 emissions,2000-2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Historic

138、al trends of CO2 emissions vary notably among selected emerging economies.China has experienced the largest increase in relative terms,with emissions from road transport more than quadrupling from 2000 to 2021.Over the same period,Chinas GDP per capita increased fivefold,triggering increased demand

139、for transport services,with 290 million cars on the road in 2021 compared to 8.2 million in 2000.India and Indonesia also experienced robust growth over the same period,with emissions from road transport tripling in India and more than doubling in Indonesia.In India,the total stock of road vehicles

140、grew from around an estimated 45 million in 2000 to more than 275 million in 2021.In Indonesia,the number of vehicles on roads increased from 16 million in 2000 to around 105 million in 2021,notably driven by the two-and three-wheelers subsector.Figure 1.9 Growth of CO2 emissions in certain energy s

141、ectors for the selected major emerging economies,2000-2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 45020002003200620092012201520182021Index(100=2000)ChinaIndiaIndonesiaBrazilSouth AfricaMexicoRest of theworld0%50%100%150%200%250%300%Aviation andshippingTrucksCars2/3-wheelersHeavy industryPowe

142、rImplementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 1.Road transport today Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|23 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Total direct CO2 emissions of the selected emerging economies increased by 180%from 2000 to 2021.Power generation,heavy industry and road transport were the main

143、 drivers of this increase.The cars subsector accounted for around 6%of the increase as emissions rose by almost 275%over the same period.The trucks and two-and three-wheelers subsectors accounted for another 4%of the increase.A notable feature of the market for cars is the growth in sports utility v

144、ehicle(SUV)sales.SUVs are heavier and consume around 20%more oil than average medium-sized cars.Increased sales of SUV is slowing progress in fuel economy improvements for vehicles powered by fossil fuels,which still account for most vehicles sold(electric car sales accounted for 9%of the global car

145、 market in 2021).Accordingly,SUVs rank among the top causes of the growth in energy-related CO2 emissions since 2010.In 2021 alone,the global fleet of SUVs increased by over 35 million,driving up annual emissions by nearly 1 Gt CO2.In India,SUV sales are lower than in China,at around 40%,but consume

146、r preferences are changing with increasing income levels and with more people being able more people to can afford SUVs.At the same time,original equipment manufacturers are marketing towards this segment.Road transport investment End-use investment in road transport5 in the selected emerging econom

147、ies was around USD 60 billion in 2021.Energy efficiency accounted for a little over half,and electrification for the remainder.Since 2017,investment in electrification has increased significantly,from almost USD 5 billion to around USD 55 billion in 2021.Growth in EV sales is driving investment in e

148、lectrification,which represented more than 45%of overall end-use investment in the global transport sector in 2021.Global EV sales more than doubled in 2021 compared to in 2020,with most of the growth in China and Europe,where,for the first time,EV surpassed diesel vehicle sales.In China,the median

149、price of an EV in 2021 was only 10%above that of the overall fleet.In contrast,model availability in the other selected emerging economies(outside China)in 2021 was limited and prices high.5 This includes investment in energy efficiency and electrification.Energy efficiency pertains to investments i

150、n vehicle efficiency,and electrification to investment in EVs.Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 1.Road transport today Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|24 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 1.10 Investment in road transport,2014-2021 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sustainable biofuels play an import

151、ant role in decarbonising road transport.They provide a low-carbon solution for existing technologies,such as for cars in the near term and for trucks and buses in the long term.Global investment in liquid biofuels(bio-gasoline and biodiesel)more than doubled in 2021,reaching just over USD 8 billion

152、.Two-thirds of this growth was in bio-based diesel,spurred by rising investment in hydrotreated vegetable oil renewable diesel,although ethanol investment also nearly doubled.Brazil contributed around 30%to global investment in liquid biofuels in 2021.Box 1.1 Fossil fuel subsidies and energy transit

153、ions Some emerging market and developing economies continue to support the production and consumption of coal,oil and natural gas.This is despite a 2009 pledge by G20 countries to gradually phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.Price interventions such as fossil fuel subsidies are rarely well

154、designed or targeted to the most vulnerable.These subsidies diminish or remove the incentives to shift to more efficient and electrified transport and tend to disproportionately benefit wealthier households and businesses.They also burden government finances at a time when fiscal leeway is important

155、 to accelerate clean energy transitions.Sustainable energy investments face an uphill struggle in many emerging markets and developing economies(EMDEs).This is because regulated prices or taxes favour fossil fuels.In 2020,the fall in fossil fuel demand and prices due to the Covid-19 pandemic drove t

156、he value of fossil fuel consumption subsidies*down to a record low.The IEA estimated that the economic value of global fossil fuel subsidies was more 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140201420152016201720182019202020212021Selected major emerging economiesWorldBillion USDElectrificationEnergy efficiencyImplemen

157、ting Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 1.Road transport today Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|25 I EA.CC BY 4.0.than USD 215 billion in 2020,50%below 2019 levels and the lowest annual figure since the IEA began tracking these subsidies in 2007.Many countries therefore took advantag

158、e of the low prices and world demand to reform pricing.For example,Indonesia cut the subsidy for diesel by 50%to IDR 500/litre,while in India,the government raised excise duties on gasoline and diesel in response to the drop in international prices.In 2022,the global economic recovery and energy cri

159、sis increased oil prices,and the IEA estimates fossil fuel subsidies reached an all-time high of all-time high of USD 1 trillion.Some countries introduced temporary measures to cushion the effect of rising oil prices on consumers(e.g.,South Africa reduced excise taxes on gasoline and diesel until Fe

160、bruary 2023).Among the selected emerging economies,only Indonesia retains subsidies for transport oil consumption,spending more than USD 13 billion in 2021 compared to USD 2.5 billion in 2020 and USD 15 billion in 2019.India ended direct subsidies for transport oil consumption in 2015,while Mexico d

161、id so in 2014.*IEA methodology uses a price-gap analysis to estimate subsidies.This is an approach that tries to identify the gap by comparing reference prices with end-user prices for consumers.Source:IEA(2023),Energy Subsidies:Tracking the impact of fossil-fuel subsidies.IEA World Energy Outlook s

162、cenarios Much of the quantitative analysis contained in this report is based on scenarios developed for the IEA World Energy Outlook(WEO).The WEO explores various scenarios,each of which is built on a different set of underlying assumptions about how the energy system might evolve.These scenarios ar

163、e not predictions,and the IEA does not have a single view about what the long-term future might hold.Instead,the WEO scenarios seek to compare different possible versions of the future and explore which levers and actions shape them,with the aim of stimulating insights about the future of global ene

164、rgy.The scenarios highlight the importance of government policies in determining the future of the global energy system.Decisions made by governments are the main differentiating factor explaining the variations in outcomes across the IEA scenarios.The IEA also considers other elements and influence

165、s,notably the economic and demographic context,technology costs and learning,energy prices and affordability,corporate sustainability commitments,and social and behavioural factors.Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 1.Road transport today Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE

166、|26 I EA.CC BY 4.0.This report utilises two of the main World Energy Outlook 2022 scenarios.The two scenarios are exploratory,in that they define a set of starting conditions and then explore where they lead.The first of these is the Stated Policies Scenario(STEPS),which the IEA uses as a reference

167、against which to explore the implications of the APS.The STEPS takes a more conservative approach over the implementation of policies than the APS,integrating sectorbysector analysis of the impacts of established and announced policies and regulations.Outside of these policies,the evolution of the e

168、nergy system in the STEPS is driven by infrastructure and equipment lifetimes,energy technology costs,fuel prices and consumer preferences.The second scenario utilised in this report is the APS,which was first introduced into the IEA scenario framework in 2021,to reflect the growing number of countr

169、ies with announced net zero emissions targets.The APS assumes governments achieve their targets on time and in full,regardless of whether they are backed by detailed implementing laws,policies and regulations.It also considers how countries envisage different sectors,such as energy and agriculture,f

170、orestry and other land use,contributing to the goal of net zero emissions.6 6 The mitigation potential of agriculture,forestry and other land use is derived from removals of GHGs and emissions reductions through management of land and livestock.Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 2.Road tr

171、ansport at a crossroads Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|27 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Chapter 2.Road transport at a crossroads It is important to understand where the road transport sector could be heading in the future,given the tripling of road transport CO2 emissions in the selected emergi

172、ng economies over the past two decades.In light of net zero pledges,7 it is also important to understand where it could be heading with enhanced policy ambition.Road transport is at a crossroads.Despite a rise in the number EVs,road transport could remain a sector largely dependent on oil consumptio

173、n,emitting significant quantities of CO2 emissions and contributing to climate change.Alternatively,the sector could become a hub of transformation that delivers the increased needs for mobility and freight transport,with a fleet that is more efficient,and which runs mainly on electricity consequent

174、ly with significantly lower CO2 emissions.This chapter discusses the development of road transport in the selected emerging economies until 2050 in both the Stated Policies Scenario(STEPS)and the Announced Pledges Scenario(APS)pathways,while presenting the policy packages in place to drive changes i

175、n this sector.It identifies the most cost-effective abatement solutions to shift from a STEPS to an APS pathway and finishes by examining the air quality and health co-benefits of doing so.It focuses on India and Indonesia,given their expected future growth trajectories in road transport.Changes in

176、fleets and fuels In addition to the growth in the number of vehicles on the road in the selected emerging economies in the past two decades(see Chapter 1),these countries are likely to experience a near doubling of these numbers by 2050.The stock of vehicles could increase to 1.7 billion in the STEP

177、S and to 1.8 billion in the APS,driven by economic and population growth.Personal vehicles such as cars,as well as two-and three-wheelers for personal and commercial use,particularly drive the increase in absolute numbers.There could be about 50 million fewer cars on the roads of these countries in

178、the APS compared to in the STEPS by 2050.However,this decline in numbers is 7 Of the selected major emerging economies,the following net zero pledges have been made:Brazil,by 2060;China,before 2060;India,by 2070;Indonesia,by 2060;and South Africa,by 2050.Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter

179、 2.Road transport at a crossroads Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|28 I EA.CC BY 4.0.more than compensated for by almost 200 million more two-and three-wheelers.Modal shifts could reduce the use of personal cars in favour of other modes of transport such as public transport and mor

180、e flexible two-and three-wheelers,especially in urban settings.In contrast to the development of the past two decades,India followed by China at some distance is projected to become the major driver of continued growth in the stock of vehicles,contributing around half of the total growth in the sele

181、cted emerging economies.Indias stock could increase from 280 million vehicles in 2021 to around 650 million by 2050.Its fleet of personal cars is projected to grow sixfold from 40 million in 2021 to 250 million,while the number of two-and three-wheelers almost doubles.These numbers outpace any of th

182、e other selected emerging economies in both vehicle categories.Indias comparatively higher projected rate of economic and population growth is the underlying driver.It will make the purchase of a personal vehicle more affordable to more households.The growth of electrification is another pronounced

183、trend in the fleet composition of selected emerging economies.In 2021,the share of EVs in the total road vehicle stock was around 5%in those countries,but this will surge in both the STEPS and the APS by 2050.In the STEPS,China will experience a significant growth of EVs,notably cars and two-and thr

184、ee-wheelers,reaching around 550 million EVs by 2050.India follows,reaching 330 million EVs notably two-and three-wheelers.All selected emerging economies see a significant acceleration in the deployment of EVs due to an increased focus on road transport electrification and corresponding policy suppo

185、rt.Compared to the STEPS,in a scenario where countries meet their announced pledges(the APS),Mexico and South Africa increase their stock of EVs by factors of 4 and 5,respectively,by 2050.Brazil and Indonesia more than double theirs,while Indias almost doubles.China experiences only a moderate boost

186、 in the APS compared to the STEPS.Market dynamics help to exceed Chinas stated targets,with the existing policy framework and targets to 2030 already taken into account in the STEPS,designed to meet the countrys long-term carbon neutrality targets.Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 2.Road

187、 transport at a crossroads Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|29 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 2.1 Road vehicle fleet and share of EVs in total road vehicle fleet in the selected major emerging economies,in the Stated Policies Scenario and the Announced Pledges Scenario,2021-2050 IEA.CC BY 4

188、.0.Fuel consumption in the road transport sector of selected emerging economies is especially from fossil fuels.In 2021,gasoline and diesel,and to a small extent natural gas,served more than 90%of total fuel demand(560 Mtoe)in the sector,with electricity accounting for less than 1%.Biofuel strategie

189、s have helped to drive up the consumption of biofuels from 6 Mtoe in 2000 to 30 Mtoe in 2021 with Brazil and Indonesia representing almost 85%of consumption in the selected emerging economies.In the STEPS,total road transport fuel consumption of selected emerging economies is projected to rise to 72

190、5 Mtoe by 2050.Consumption of fossil fuels is expected to peak around 2030,slowly declining thereafter to around 540 Mtoe by mid-century.Biofuels continue their increase,albeit at a slower rate.Electricity is poised to become the second most dominant fuel after fossil fuels,supported by an increase

191、in EV use,notably in China and India.Electricity and biofuel use rises in Brazil,India and Indonesia,but would account for around only 25%of the 2050 fuel consumption.The increase in electric two-and three-wheelers and cars with electric powertrains explains the high share of EVs in the total road f

192、leet in the STEPS.However,most cars and trucks in the selected emerging economies would still be powered by fossil fuels.In the APS,the selected emerging economies could see total fuel consumption in the road transport sector peak at around 660 Mtoe by 2030.Fuel economy improvements could drive fuel

193、 consumption down to 500 Mtoe by 2050(lower than 2021 levels),despite continued growth in the number of vehicles.In the APS,road 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0 200 400 600 8001 0001 2001 4001 6001 8002 000202120502050STEPSAPSRoad vehicle fleet(million)2/3-wheelersBusesTrucksCarsShare of EVs into

194、tal road fleet(right axis)Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 2.Road transport at a crossroads Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|30 I EA.CC BY 4.0.transport fuel consumption in those countries could experience a dramatic shift to electricity and,to a lesser extent,to hydro

195、gen,compared to the STEPS.By 2050,in the APS,electricity could become the most used form of energy in the selected emerging economies.It could represent more than 40%of consumption,driven by an aggressive expansion of EVs across the cars,trucks,and two-and three-wheelers subsectors.This expansion of

196、 the EV fleet illustrates the importance of the parallel decarbonisation of the electricity system and modernisation of the electricity grid.However,large differences would exist among countries.Electricity consumption could be more than double that of fossil fuels in Chinas road transport sector.Bu

197、t in other countries such as India or Indonesia,fossil fuels rather than electricity would remain the dominant source to power vehicles on their roads.In the APS,in terms of overall road transport consumption by 2050 in the selected emerging economies,electricity is closely followed by fossil fuels(

198、mainly oil)at around 190 Mtoe.This is a level last seen in 2000.Biofuels could achieve similar levels in the APS to the STEPS.Hydrogen is expected to play a limited role in the road transport sector overall,although the number of fuel cell electric cars,trucks and buses could start to grow in the 20

199、40s.Total hydrogen consumption for road transport reaches more than 25 Mtoe in the APS by 2050.Figure 2.2 Road transport fuel consumption in the selected major emerging economies in the Stated Policies Scenario and the Announced Pledges Scenario,2000-2050 IEA.CC BY 4.0.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%1

200、00%200020212030205020302050STEPSAPSHydrogenBiofuelsElectricityFossilfuelsImplementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 2.Road transport at a crossroads Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|31 I EA.CC BY 4.0.CO2 emissions pathways Direct CO2 emissions from road transport reached more th

201、an 1.5 Gt CO2 in the selected emerging economies in 2021.This increase was in line with the global rebound after Covid-19.In the STEPS,such emissions continue to rise until mid-2030,thereafter decreasing slowly to 1.6 Gt CO2 by 2050.This is the first time that the IEAs STEPS projects a plateauing an

202、d reduction of CO2 emissions from the road transport sector in the selected emerging economies by mid-century.This development is attributable to declining emissions in China after 2025,with its emissions dropping by more than 40%compared to in 2021.In Brazil and India,emissions start decreasing aft

203、er 2040.Indonesias emissions stabilise towards 2050,while those of Mexico and South Africa continue to increase slowly.In the APS,emissions from road transport in the selected emerging economies peak in 2025 and drop to less than 0.6 Gt CO2 by 2050.China and India account for two-thirds of this decr

204、ease,due to the size of their fleets.China aims to achieve carbon neutrality before or by 2060 and India by 2070.In cumulative terms,ambitious policies in the APS in these major emerging economies could generate around 13 Gt CO2 in cumulative emissions savings in the road transport sector by 2050,wi

205、th the cars and trucks subsectors accounting for 95%of this reduction potential.Figure 2.3 Road transport CO2 emissions in the Announced Pledges Scenario versus the Stated Policies Scenario,2000-2050 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:The scope of emissions is direct CO2 emissions.To achieve the CO2 emissions reduc

206、tions illustrated,the APS assumes a rapid decarbonisation of the power sector.Please see the box below on power sector decarbonisation for more information.0 200 400 600 8001 0001 2001 4001 6001 8002 000200020102020203020402050Mt CO2South AfricaMexicoIndonesiaIndiaChinaBrazilSTEPSImplementing Clean

207、Energy Transitions Chapter 2.Road transport at a crossroads Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|32 I EA.CC BY 4.0.By 2030,the cars and trucks subsectors are projected to drive the increase in emissions in selected emerging economies in both scenarios.As populations and household incom

208、es grow,the purchase of a private car becomes a viable option for more people,with the number of cars rising accordingly.By 2030,emissions due to cars will increase by 15%above 2021 levels in the STEPS(an increase of around 120 Mt CO2),with about half the increase in CO2 emissions related to road tr

209、ansport.In the APS,almost 90 Mt CO2 of this rise could be shaved off as policies accelerate the adoption of EVs.For example,the share of electric cars in total car sales is projected to jump from around 1%in 2021 to 31%in India and 21%in Indonesia by 2030,compared to 13%and 7%,respectively,in the ST

210、EPS.By 2050,emissions due to cars in the selected emerging economies could fall below 2021 levels in the STEPS while continuing to emit significant quantities of CO2 into the atmosphere.This outlook changes significantly in the APS as cars realise their potential as the main abatement lever.The shar

211、e of EVs could reach at least 70%of the total car stock in all the selected emerging economies except Brazil,which is projected to rely on a combination of electric and biofuel-powered vehicles to achieve its decarbonisation and development goals.This means direct emissions from the car fleet in the

212、se major emerging economies could drop to 140 Mt CO2 by 2050,around 80%lower than in 2021.With emissions due to trucks having already doubled in the past two decades in the selected emerging economies,it faces a more difficult decarbonisation pathway.This is because economic and population growth dr

213、ive a surge in the demand for freight transport while emissions reduction measures such as direct electrification or fuel cell electric vehicles(FCEVs)are not always readily available or cost-effective.In both scenarios,CO2 emissions due to trucks are projected to continue with an upward trend until

214、 2030.Beyond 2030,they remain hard to abate.the STEPS projects an almost linear upward trend from 2030 to 2050.However,in the APS,the truck emissions curve is bent in this time frame,lowering emissions from 565 Mt CO2 in 2021 to 400 Mt CO2 by 2050 in the selected emerging economies.This is despite a

215、 surge in freight activity and the resulting increase in the number of trucks on the road.This reduction is achieved by means of aggressive fuel economy improvements,as well as by switching powertrains from diesel to electric and fuel cell electric.The trucks subsector has by far the highest road tr

216、ansport emissions out of all the subsectors,even in the more ambitious APS pathway.Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 2.Road transport at a crossroads Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|33 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 2.4 Road transport CO2 emissions in the selected major emergin

217、g economies by mode in the Stated Policies Scenario and the Announced Pledges Scenario,2000-2050 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Box 2.1 Power sector decarbonisation in the selected emerging economies Power sector decarbonisation in the selected major emerging economies is a critical element in realising the full CO2

218、 emissions reduction potential of EVs.This is because vehicle charging can cause indirect emissions in electricity grids,with a high carbon intensity.Globally,the electricity sector emitted 13 Gt CO2 in 2021,with the selected emerging economies accounting for 60%,given the basic need to provide elec

219、tricity to 3.5 billion people and the presence of large coal-fired power plant fleets in China,India,Indonesia and South Africa.However,in all scenarios,electricity sector CO2 emissions peak soon,with steep reductions of 35%in the STEPS and over 80%in the APS by 2050 for these major emerging economi

220、es.In the APS,China,which is the main contributor to this overall drop,sees its annual CO2 emissions decline to 1 Gt CO2 by 2050.In the other countries,they become almost insignificant or close to zero.A surge of renewable sources of energy in electricity generation and a significant reduction of th

221、e role of unabated coal-fired power mostly drive this development.Higher investment in the electricity sector enables these reductions,rising from an annual average of USD 350 billion in 2017-2021 in the selected emerging economies to an annual average of USD 600 billion in 2022-2050 in the APS,or 3

222、0%higher than in the STEPS.0 200 400 600 8001 0001 2001 4001 6001 8002 0002000201020212030205020302050STEPSAPSMt CO22/3-wheelersBusesTrucksCarsImplementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 2.Road transport at a crossroads Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|34 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Power sec

223、tor CO2 emissions in the Stated Policies Scenario and the Announced Pledges Scenario,2021-2050 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA(2022),World Energy Outlook 2022.While power sector decarbonisation is essential to fully realise the emissions reduction potential of EVs,the net impact of EV use on emissions can

224、be positive with current carbon intensities of electricity generation.When EV deployment displaces the use of conventional vehicles powered by fossil fuels,electricity carbon intensity needs to be lower than 700-750 g CO2/kWh(around the current level of Indias electricity generation)for the net impa

225、ct of EV deployment to be positive.Sources:IEA(2022),World Energy Outlook 2022;IEA(2021),Air Quality and Climate Policy Integration in India.Road transport emissions in India and Indonesia Together with China,India and Indonesia decrease their CO2 emissions in the road transport sector significantly

226、 by 2050,in line with their net zero pledges,as modelled in the APS.However,both countries will have to significantly build out their current policy frameworks to achieve their net zero pledges and the resulting emissions pathways.When implementing the policies to achieve their pledges,both countrie

227、s are expected to reach a peak in their road transport emissions in the mid-2030s.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 920212030205020302050STEPSAPSGt CO2South AfricaMexicoIndonesiaIndiaChinaBrazilImplementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 2.Road transport at a crossroads Focus on road transport in emerging economi

228、es PAGE|35 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Figure 2.5 Road transport CO2 emissions in India and Indonesia by mode in the Announced Pledges Scenario,2021-2050 IEA.CC BY 4.0.In India,cars could be the main emissions reduction driver in the APS,followed by two-and three-wheelers and buses,owing to fleet electrification

229、.Costs for electric cars and especially electric two-and three-wheelers are now,or soon will be,cost-competitive(see the section on cost-effective abatement solutions for further details).Truck emissions in India remain hard to abate until mid-century,as projected economic growth drives demand for f

230、reight transport and electric,while fuel cell electric trucks are likely to become cost-effective only in the 2040s.Figure 2.6 Enablers of road transport decarbonisation in India,Announced Pledges Scenario versus Stated Policies Scenario,2010-2050 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Includes direct and indirect CO2

231、emissions.Source:IEA(2023),Transitioning Indias Road Transport Sector:Realising Climate and Air Quality Benefits.0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400202120302050Mt CO2CarsTrucksBuses2/3-wheelers0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180202120302050MtCO2IndiaIndonesia0 100 200 300 400 500 600201020152020202520302

232、035204020452050Mt CO2ElectrificationEnergy efficiencyHydrogen uptakeBiofuel useSTEPSAPS4 Gt CO2(2022-50)Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 2.Road transport at a crossroads Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|36 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Electrification enables the 4 Gt CO2 in cumulati

233、ve emissions savings from 2022 to 2050 in Indias road transport decarbonisation in the APS.Energy efficiency or fuel economy improvements follow,with the annual savings contribution decreasing with time as efficiency improvements increasingly meet technical and physical limits.Blending gasoline and

234、diesel fuels with biofuels enables additional annual saving contributions on a continuous basis through this time frame,while hydrogen uptake completes the picture most notably after 2040.In relative terms,Indonesia could have a higher decarbonisation rate,with emissions decreasing by 70%in the APS

235、compared to in the STEPS.The cars and two-and three-wheelers subsectors account for most of the decrease.The two-and three-wheelers subsector could experience rapidly reducing emissions from 2025.The cars subsector could reach peak emissions in mid-2030,with a rapid decline thereafter owing to the p

236、enetration of EVs in the market and a sales ban for conventional or ICE cars by 2050.Emissions due to trucks could have a much slower decline,as electric and fuel cell electric trucks remain relatively expensive until close to mid-century.Box 2.2 Transport emissions in Indonesia Indonesias transport

237、 sector(including road,rail,shipping and aviation)accounted for onethird of the countrys final energy consumption and around 40%of CO2 emissions from final energy consumption in 2021.Almost 90%of CO2 emissions(120 Mt CO2)in the transport sector,as well as 90%of oil demand,is from road transport.Two-

238、and three-wheeled motorbikes are the preferred transport mode for Indonesians.At 325 motorbikes per 1 000 inhabitants,the ownership rate is double that in India and more than triple the global average.Car ownership in Indonesia is significantly lower,with about 40 cars per 1 000 inhabitants or a qua

239、rter of the global average.In the APS,income growth spurs the preference for,and accessibility of,car ownership over motorbikes,in line with trends observed in many emerging economies.Ownership of motorbikes and other two-/threewheeler vehicles increases by almost 15%by 2030,but peaks just before 20

240、40 and then begins to decline.However,car ownership jumps to over 75 vehicles per 1 000 people by 2030 and almost 170 cars per 1 000 inhabitants by 2050,multiplying the total stock of passenger cars by more than fivefold compared to 2021 levels.Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 2.Road tr

241、ansport at a crossroads Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|37 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Enablers of decarbonisation in Indonesias whole transport sector by measure,Announced Pledges Scenario versus Stated Policies Scenario,2025-2050 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:The figure pertains to the entire transport

242、 sector,which includes road transport as a subsector.Some additional CO2 emissions reductions are also generated in the transport sector through avoided demand for mobility and freight transport as well as fuel switching to hydrogen.The graph shows annual CO2 emissions savings.It includes direct and

243、 indirect CO2 emissions.Source:Adapted from IEA(2022),An Energy Sector Roadmap to Net Zero Emissions in Indonesia.CO2 emissions due to passenger cars rise rapidly until around 2035 in the APS,owing to there being more cars on the road and continued sales of ICE vehicles.The share of EVs in passenger

244、 vehicle sales ramps up only in the 2030s.By 2050,sales of new ICE vehicles will be coming to an end.The combination of energy efficiency improvements,biofuel blending and especially increasing penetration of EVs drives CO2 emissions down in the passenger car segment by 2050 in the APS.Biodiesel ble

245、nding rapidly increases due to the truck subsector.This enables plateauing of CO2 emissions around 2030.Beyond 2030,the combined effect of increasing electrification of smaller trucks and continued increases in biodiesel use is enough to drive down emissions to almost 20%compared to in 2021,despite

246、an almost tripling in the number of trucks.In total,Indonesias entire transport sector can save 140 Mt CO2 annually by 2050 in the APS compared to the STEPS.Most savings come from transport fleet electrification.This electrification is boosted by the rising penetration of EVs that helps to cut emiss

247、ions,but the effect becomes more visible after 2030 owing to the slow turnover of the vehicle fleet.-160-140-120-100-80-60-40-200202520302035204020452050Mt CO2Biofuel useEnergyefficiencyElectrificationImplementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 2.Road transport at a crossroads Focus on road transp

248、ort in emerging economies PAGE|38 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Total annual final energy consumption and demand savings by mitigation measure in the transport sector in Indonesia,Announced Pledges Scenario versus Stated Policies Scenario,2021-2050 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:Adapted from IEA(2022),An Energy Sector Roadm

249、ap to Net Zero Emissions in Indonesia.Final energy consumption of Indonesias transport sector by 2050 would be almost three times as high without increased energy efficiency gains,electrification,avoided demand and other fuel switching relative to 2021 levels.In the transport sector,fuel economy sta

250、ndards introduced by 2025 and accelerating electrification can avoid over 0.35 EJ of oil demand by 2030.By 2050,efficiency gains and electrification can save 2.4 EJ of annual energy demand,while increased use of public transport contributes another 0.4 EJ of savings.Source:IEA(2022),An Energy Sector

251、 Roadmap to Net Zero Emissions in Indonesia.Existing policies for road transport decarbonisation Targets,policies and regulations will be needed to achieve an APS-aligned development of road transport in the selected emerging economies.These policies will shape the technological development of diffe

252、rent powertrains and modes.They will also influence the decision making of consumers in the purchase of vehicles.A large set of policies have already been implemented in those major emerging economies that help to limit the growth of CO2 emissions.These can be grouped into three categories:regulatio

253、n(including standards and mandates),incentives and informational measures.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7202120302050EJAPS demandElectrificationFuel switchEnergyefficiencyAvoideddemandSavings due to:Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 2.Road transport at a crossroads Focus on road transport in emerging ec

254、onomies PAGE|39 I EA.CC BY 4.0.The first category includes,for example,regulations that mandate a certain share of sustainable biofuels such as bioethanol or biodiesel in the gasoline and diesel fuel mix or standards around the fuel economy of a vehicle.Incentives can range from subsidies and tax cr

255、edits for the purchase of an EV to fuel excise taxes and public investment in biofuels production.Informational measures focus on programmes that either facilitate co-operation and knowledge sharing among companies and research institutes or information campaigns such as spreading awareness on the b

256、enefits of e-mobility.Table 2.1 Road transport policy landscape in the selected major emerging economies Category Policy instrument Brazil China India Indonesia Mexico South Africa Regulations,including standards and mandates Biofuel blending mandates Fuel economy standards Emissions standards Charg

257、ing standards Zero-emission vehicle(ZEV)mandates Incentives Fiscal incentives for EVs Fiscal incentives for modal shift Fuel taxes/carbon pricing Public investment in biofuel Fiscal incentives for scrapping old vehicles *Information Information and education *Some fiscal incentives for scrappage sch

258、emes exist in China but are determined and implemented at provincial and city level.National policy encourages local governments to put scrappage schemes in place if they have the capacity.Note:“”indicates a country has at least one official policy that is either partially or fully implemented in th

259、is category in the current policy landscape(early 2023).An interactive version of the table,including details on all policies in each category,can be found online.Given the projected energy demand growth in the STEPS(as illustrated in the previous section),energy efficiency in the road transport sec

260、tor is a key enabler for decarbonisation.Fuel economy standards are important policy instruments that governments put in place to promote vehicle efficiency improvements.In addition to increasing the fuel efficiency of conventional ICE vehicles,such standards can also accelerate the adoption of ZEVs

261、8,if set at sufficiently stringent levels.Several of the selected emerging economies have adopted fuel economy standards for cars and light commercial vehicles.China and India developed standards for heavy-duty vehicles.China implemented a standard for two-and 8 A ZEV is a vehicle that does not emit

262、 tailpipe gas or other pollutants.It can be,for example,a battery or fuel cell electric vehicle.Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 2.Road transport at a crossroads Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|40 I EA.CC BY 4.0.three-wheelers,while India announced the application of

263、fuel consumption standards for two-and three-wheelers from April 2023.Nevertheless,these standards are not yet homogeneously implemented across countries or subsectors.For example,India has implemented fuel economy standards for cars,with the CO2 emissions target decreasing from 130 g CO2/km in 2017

264、 to 113 g CO2/km in 2022.However,no tightening of these standards has so far been announced or legislated.Brazil,Indonesia and South Africa have not implemented any fuel economy standards in the road transport sector.This is an important policy gap.Table 2.2 Fuel economy standards in the selected ma

265、jor emerging economies Mode Brazil China India Indonesia Mexico South Africa Cars *Trucks Two-and three-wheelers *Since 2012,Brazil has introduced the possibility for manufacturers to receive a discount from a tax on industrialised products through the Inovar-Auto programme(now replaced by Rota 2030

266、),which,in its impact and function,comes close to a fuel economy standard.*Indias Ministry of Road Transport and Highways has announced implementation of fuel consumption standards also for two-and three-wheelers,applicable from 1 April 2023.Note:“”indicates a country has at least one official polic

267、y that is either partially or fully implemented in the current policy landscape(early 2023).Fuel excise taxes and carbon pricing are also instruments established and used in the transport sector of all the selected emerging economies.Combined with measures such as revenue generation,these can incent

268、ivise more efficient fuel consumption.Taking these together with existing fossil fuel subsidies,an effective carbon rate(i.e.,an effective cost per tonne of CO2)can be estimated.India has the highest effective carbon rate in the transport sector among the selected emerging economies.This is driven e

269、xclusively by fuel excise taxes.The Government of India levies the Basic Excise Duty(BED)on some oil and gaseous products.Importantly,it combines this with a so-called Special Additional Excise Duty(SAED)and an additional excise duty on road and infrastructure.Both apply in addition to the basic exc

270、ise duty on gasoline and diesel fuels for road transport.In combination,these duties amount to a significant level of taxation in comparison to the other selected emerging economies and advanced economies.South Africa applies similar duty levels with its General Fuel Levy(GFL)and the Road Accident F

271、und(RAF)levy,both of which apply to gasoline and diesel transport fuels.To illustrate the scale of these levies,the revenues raised by the General Fuel Levy amounted to about 6%of total tax revenues in 2019/20.Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 2.Road transport at a crossroads Focus on ro

272、ad transport in emerging economies PAGE|41 I EA.CC BY 4.0.In contrast,while Indonesia does apply a set level of fuel excise tax,its effective carbon rate is negative given the high level of fossil fuel subsidies for transport fuels.Figure 2.7 Effective carbon rates in road transport,2021 IEA.CC BY 4

273、.0.Source:Reproduced from OECD(2022),Pricing Greenhouse Gas Emissions:Turning Climate Targets into Climate Action.Another approach to reduce fossil fuel consumption in transport is the blending of gasoline and diesel with biofuels.Originally promoted to reduce countries oil(import)dependency and enh

274、ance domestic energy security,biofuels emerged as an important option to reduce CO2 emissions of conventional ICE vehicles.Bioethanol and biodiesel are the two most common biofuels in commercial use.Bioethanol acts as a blending agent with gasoline and is derived from plant starches and sugars(e.g.,

275、sugar cane).Biodiesel is blended with conventional diesel and produced from sources such as new or used vegetable oil or animal fats.Brazil9 and Indonesia have developed strong incentives by means of biofuel programmes and mandates.Governments that choose to support introducing biofuels in their tra

276、nsport sector should actively address possible trade-offs with sustainable development goals,including avoiding conflicts at local level with other uses of land,notably for food production and biodiversity protection.Advanced biofuels,based on non-food crops and agricultural residues,can present an

277、attractive alternative to conventional biofuels(e.g.,bio-oils from palm oil),and should be promoted.9 Brazil has one of the longest experiences globally with biofuels with its National Programme for Biodiesel Production and Use(PNPB)and RenovaBio.-500 50 100 150 200BrazilChinaIndiaIndonesiaMexicoSou

278、th Africa AdvancedeconomiesEffective carbon rate(USD/t CO2)Fossil fuelsubsidyExplicit carbonpriceFuel excise taxNet effectivecarbon rateImplementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 2.Road transport at a crossroads Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|42 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Since 2019,Indon

279、esia has successfully implemented its biofuel blending policy,with 30%biodiesel and 20%bioethanol blending targets by 2020 and 2025,respectively.Plans to increase the biodiesel blending target to 40%in mid-2021 have been delayed to 2025 owing to funding difficulties.In addition,the bioethanol target

280、 may be out of reach,as the uptake of ethanol blending remains marginal.Financially,Indonesias biofuels policy is supported with allocated government funding,as well as through providing government loans at below-market interest rates for the development of biofuel palm oil plantations.Support shoul

281、d be squared with stringent sustainability criteria to avoid trade-offs with other sustainable development goals.With its Roadmap for Ethanol Blending and its National Policy on Biofuels,India has also laid the groundwork for increasing its blending mandate to 20%ethanol blending by 2025 and 5%biodi

282、esel blending by 2030.Vehicle fleet electrification is arguably the most effective way to mitigate CO2 emissions in the road transport sector.A comprehensive policy framework is therefore required to support the supply of and demand for EVs,as well as to provide the necessary charging infrastructure

283、.This includes fiscal incentives such as subsidies and tax credits to produce EVs,as well as for EV purchase,investments for the buildout of charging infrastructure and charging standards.The selected emerging economies,notably China,have developed and deployed fiscal incentives,but limited fiscal l

284、eeway has hampered development in many of these selected major economies.India has implemented strong incentives for EV production and uptake.So-called production-linked incentive(PLI)schemes put forward USD 3.5 billion for domestic manufacturing of EVs and another USD 2.5 billion for large-scale ad

285、vanced battery manufacturing.This is combined with the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles(FAME)II programme,launched in 2019 and now extended to 2024.This programme provides USD 1.4 billion by means of direct subsidies for EV uptake.It has been particularly successful

286、in incentivising the uptake of electric two-and three-wheelers and buses,the latter by means of bulk procurement programmes partially financed by FAME II.An additional incentive for battery EVs is provided through a decreased Goods and Services Tax(GST)of 5%(instead of 18-25%)when purchasing such ve

287、hicles.A range of state-level subsidies to lower the purchase cost of EVs complements these incentives.In Indonesia,fiscal incentives for EV uptake are not as developed as in India but have recently received greater attention.To boost the demand for EVs,the government recently decided to exempt EVs

288、from the luxury tax(normally around 15-95%,depending on the engine)while demanding a lower tax rate for hybrid vehicles.Discussions are taking place on introducing further incentives or Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 2.Road transport at a crossroads Focus on road transport in emerging

289、 economies PAGE|43 I EA.CC BY 4.0.subsidies for two-wheelers.Indonesia has also recently legalised the conversion of conventional two-and three-wheelers to electric powertrains in public repair shops.This could be an important enabler for the rapid electrification of two-and three-wheelers.Slow upta

290、ke of this service so far is mainly related to a relatively high price for the powertrain conversion at about USD 1 000(IDR 15 million).In addition to fiscal incentives for EVs,public investment into charging infrastructure and charging standards with standardised guidelines,definitions and building

291、 codes for the charging infrastructure of EVs is a crucial precondition for large-scale buildout of charging stations.For example,the Indian government is allocating USD 130 million for public charging infrastructure through its FAME II programme and aims to install almost 3 000 charging stations th

292、roughout the country.In addition,it also passed charging standards in 2019 by integrating the target of up to 20%of parking spaces for EV charging facilities in its building code for Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment(EVSE)building code.In many of the selected emerging economies,public investment int

293、o charging infrastructure and standardising EV charging lag behind.This constitutes another important policy gap that needs addressing if announced pledges and net zero targets are to be achieved.Cost-effective abatement solutions Identifying the cheapest and most potent CO2 reduction measures is an

294、 important exercise for policy makers to adequately prioritise policy support at a given time.This will also keep the costs of clean energy transitions as low as possible,especially in times of exceptionally high energy prices.Such policy support can take the form of technology-specific support such

295、 as tax credits or grants,and broader instruments such as a carbon price.For India and Indonesia,marginal abatement cost curves(MACCs)10 of powertrain switches in cars,11 trucks,and two-and three-wheelers in the APS from 2022 to 2050 have been created and compared to the STEPS.Computing such MACCs e

296、nables policy makers to identify the largest and cheapest CO2 abatement levers that policies should focus on for effective policy action.It also points out those measures that are not yet cost-effective in an APS pathway and therefore require additional policy support to incentivise their deployment

297、 and resulting cost decrease.10 These curves show the cost of reducing one more metric tonne of CO2 with a given abatement solution.11 In this section on cost-effective abatement solutions,the category“cars”refers to personal light-duty vehicles only and does not contain light commercial vehicles as

298、 elsewhere in this report.Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 2.Road transport at a crossroads Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|44 I EA.CC BY 4.0.As becomes evident in the MACCs below,due to incrementalism and inertia in the system,some powertrain switches are also happen

299、ing in the APS despite not being cost-effective.Furthermore,by taking the entire 2022-2050 timeframe and comparing it to the STEPS,the MACCs consider future cost developments and switches from one powertrain to the other annually.This is to demonstrate whether an abatement solution is cost-effective

300、 over the entirety of this time frame(rather than for a single point in time)when implementing announced policies and ambitions(APS)compared to stated policies.Moreover,it allows computing cumulative emissions savings by abatement lever without double counting,which is important for understanding th

301、e scale of a given abatement lever to achieve the APS pathway.The scope of emissions in the MACCs is tailpipe emissions in other words,direct CO2 emissions.This underlines the importance of a parallel and swift power sector decarbonisation in line with the APS.Only then can certain abatement levers

302、such as a switch to EVs fully realise their decarbonisation potential as depicted in this section.India Transitioning road transport in India on an emissions and fleet development pathway in line with its announced policies and ambitions,as modelled in the APS,could be a cost-effective undertaking.I

303、t has a total potential saving of USD 200 billion from 2022 to 2050.Powertrain switches especially from conventional ICE vehicles to EVs have the potential to save an additional 2.5 Gt CO2 of cumulative emissions12 at an average marginal abatement cost of-USD 80/t CO2 in the APS compared to the STEP

304、S.The analysed powertrain switches could be responsible for more than 60%of cumulative emissions savings in road transport in India,with electrification driving most of the savings.This major role for electrification in driving CO2 emissions reductions underlines the importance of a rapid decarbonis

305、ation of Indias power sector.Outside the scope of the MACC analysis,another 1.5 Gt CO2 in emissions savings could be triggered through fuel economy improvements in the remaining stock of vehicles,powertrain switches to EVs and FCEVs in vans and buses,as well as using biofuels.By far most CO2 emissio

306、ns in Indias road transport sector could be abated through powertrain switches in cars,followed at some distance by trucks,and two-and three-wheelers.This is unsurprising given the existing large stock and the expected explosive growth in the number of cars on Indias 12 The boundaries for emissions

307、in the MACC analyses for India and Indonesia are tailpipe emissions,to ensure equal treatment among powertrains.Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 2.Road transport at a crossroads Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|45 I EA.CC BY 4.0.roads,especially from 2025.In the APS,th

308、e stock of cars is projected to increase by a factor of 6 by 2050(relative to 2022),with the number of trucks more than doubling,and the number of two-and three-wheelers almost doubling.Figure 2.8 Selected CO2 abatement costs in Indias road transport sector in the Announced Pledges Scenario,2022-205

309、0 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:This MACC shows the abatement costs and cumulative emissions savings of the entire car,truck,and two-and three-wheeler vehicle fleet in India in the APS compared to the STEPS for the time frame 2022-2050.It is not a comparison of 2050 with 2022 but considers powertrain switches

310、and cost developments annually for the entire time frame.It focuses exclusively on powertrain switches from conventional engines to hybrid,plug-in hybrid,battery and fuel cell EVs.Switches to plug-in hybrid and battery electric are both allocated to“Switch to electric”,which explains why there are t

311、wo different costs associated with a“Switch to electric”.Powertrain switches with an emissions savings potential of below 1 Mt CO2 are excluded.The figure shows direct carbon dioxide emissions.Hence the emissions do not align with the“well-to-wheel”framework for accounting for full fuel-cycle emissi

312、ons,with implications for all fuels.A recent IEA report analyses the well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions,demonstrating that in 2019 battery electric light-duty vehicles had the lowest well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions in all segments.For India,the electricity carbon intensity needs to be low

313、er than 700-750 g CO2/kWh for the net impact of electric vehicle deployment to be positive.Electrification could drive most of the emissions savings in the APS.For trucks,significant savings could also come from switching to fuel cells.Switching ICE cars to battery electric in India could abate an a

314、dditional 1.7 Gt CO2 compared to the STEPS at an abatement cost of around-USD 120/t CO2,as battery EVs experience a rapid reduction in costs and become cost-effective quickly.This could lead to cost savings of USD 200 billion,just for this powertrain switch.Other switches to electric in India involv

315、e cars with hybrid and compressed natural gas engines switching to battery electric powertrains,which could be achieved at even higher negative abatement costs than for conventional engines.While more than 200 Mt CO2 in additional emissions savings could also come from ICE cars-600-400-2000 200 400

316、600 800 5001 0001 5002 0002 500Cost(USD/t CO2)Potential emissions savings(Mt CO2)Switch to electricSwitch to hybridSwitch to fuel cellsSwitch to electricSwitch to hybridSwitch to fuel cellsSwitch to electricCarsTrucks2/3-wheelersImplementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 2.Road transport at a cro

317、ssroads Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|46 I EA.CC BY 4.0.switching to hybrid powertrains13(combination of an ICE and a small electric powertrain)due to the slightly better carbon footprint,this can be realised only at a significant abatement cost of more than USD 400/t CO2.Despit

318、e lower running costs,this high cost reflects the higher investment cost for hybrid powertrains than ICE cars.This does not decrease significantly in the APS but saves only a relatively small amount of emissions compared to the STEPS.In the two-and three-wheelers subsector,the almost 100 Mt CO2 in a

319、dditional emissions savings compared to the STEPS could be delivered at a cost saving of more than USD 450/t CO2,as electric two-and three-wheelers in India are already cheaper than those powered by ICEs and will continue to become cheaper in the future.Among the trucks(medium-and heavy-freight truc

320、ks)subsector,electrification,followed by fuel cell use,could be a significant abatement lever in India albeit triggered at a later point in time than for cars.Assuming announced policies and ambitions are implemented in full and on time,shifting heavy-freight trucks from diesel ICEs to electric powe

321、rtrains could,for example,save around 140 Mt CO2 at a cost saving of USD 40/t CO2 over the time frame of 2022-2050.Overall,most of the additional emissions reductions in the APS compared to the STEPS in Indias trucks sector are being driven by fuel economy improvements and a modal shift in freight.I

322、ndonesia In Indonesia,powertrain switches in cars,trucks and two-and three-wheelers have the potential to save an additional almost 1.2 Gt CO2 of cumulative emissions from 2022 to 2050 in the APS compared to the STEPS.This reflects the significantly smaller road transport stock and absolute emission

323、s from the sector compared to in India.However,the additional savings could be realised only at an average marginal abatement cost of USD 35/t CO2,translating to a total cost of about USD 40 billion.Especially for cars,additional support for certain powertrain switches beyond the policy support and

324、cost reductions already modelled in the APS will be required to make these switches cost-effective.Subsidies,loan facilities below market prices to lower the upfront investment cost,or pricing of more carbon-intensive powertrains could help in this direction(the financing section in Chapter 3 lays o

325、ut the financing challenges and opportunities in more detail).13 This should not be confused with a plug-in hybrid,which is classified in this report as an electric powertrain,as outlined in the notes on the India and Indonesia MACCs.Implementing Clean Energy Transitions Chapter 2.Road transport at

326、a crossroads Focus on road transport in emerging economies PAGE|47 I EA.CC BY 4.0.Overall,the analysed powertrain switches could be responsible for most of the cumulative emissions savings in road transport in Indonesia in the APS,with direct electrification alone driving about 1 Gt CO2 in savings.A

327、lso outside the scope of the MACC analysis for Indonesia,the remaining emissions savings in the APS are driven by fuel economy improvements in the remaining fleet of vehicles,powertrain switches in vans and buses,and the use of biofuels.Most CO2 emissions in Indonesias road transport sector could be

328、 abated through powertrain switches in cars.The car fleet is projected to increase fivefold by 2050,while the number of trucks is projected to double,and the number of two-and three-wheelers is projected to grow by slightly more than a third.Population growth in the APS in Indonesia is similar in re

329、lative terms to that in India.Therefore,the difference in the truck and two-and three-wheeler growth rates between India and Indonesia can be explained through geographic differences.Indonesia relies more on maritime freight transport and a higher usage of light commercial vehicles for last-mile del

330、ivery compared to commercial two-and three-wheelers in India.A slightly lower economic growth rate in Indonesia is another factor.Figure 2.9 Selected CO2 abatement costs in Indonesias road transport sector in the Announced Pledges Scenario,2022-2050 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:This MACC shows the abatement c

331、osts and cumulative emissions savings of the entire car,truck,and two-and three-wheeler vehicle fleet in Indonesia in the APS compared to the STEPS for the time frame 2022-2050.It is not a comparison of 2050 with 2022 but considers powertrain switches and cost developments annually for the entire ti

332、me frame.It focuses exclusively on powertrain switches from conventional engines to hybrid,plug-in hybrid,battery and fuel cell EVs.Switches to plug-in hybrid and battery electric are both allocated to“Switch to electric”,which explains why there are two different costs associated with a“Switch to e

333、lectric”.Powertrain switches with an emissions savings potential of below 1 Mt CO2 are excluded.The figure shows direct carbon dioxide emissions.Hence the emissions do not align with the“well-to-wheel”framework for accounting for full fuel-cycle emissions,with implications for all fuels.A recent IEA report analyses the well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions,demonstrating that in 2019 battery elect