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1、xTech Futures:SpaceTechLaunching the ultimate emerging market2FM+BMTABLE OF CONTENTSINTRODUCTION 03HERE 09Reducing barriers to entry and explorationNEAR 15 Capturing higher-value business cases in Earths orbitsTHERE 29 Exploring new frontiers for health,wealth,and wisdomCONCLUSION 39ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

2、403INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTIONPREFACEFrom InfoTech to xTechFifteen years ago,our small band of rebels published a report called Deloitte Tech Trends.The idea was simple,but not simplistic:Chronicle pioneering client case studies from around the globe that,taken together,traced a trendline toward our sh

3、ared tomorrow.Somebody,in some other sector,in some other country,is very likely building pieces of your tomorrow,today.Or,as William Gibson said best:“The future is already hereits just not very evenly distributed.”As an organization delivering myriad professional services in just about every indus

4、try sector,we take that truism more literally than just about anyone.Today,Deloitte Tech Trends is our most widely read annual report globally.Its required reading for business leaders who are keen to get beyond the buzzwords du jour and on to enduring business value;those who aspire to graduate fro

5、m best practices to next practices and play leapfrog instead of catch-up.But heres the catch.If were being honest with ourselves,Tech Trends doesnt really chronicle“tech”so much as a subset of tech.Specifically,information technology.Which makes sense,because InfoTech has indeed been the primary eng

6、ine powering business acceleration and digital transformation for the last 50+years.But as it turns out,theres a whole lot more going on in“tech”than IT.In distinctively Deloitte fashion,weve gotten busy studying the evolution of undergraduate majors,PhD programs,grant funding,patent activity,ventur

7、e funding,and liquidity events.In doing so,weve realized something material.SpaceTech.BioTech.RobotTech.EnergyTech.These upstart technology domains are beginning to graduate from the laboratory to the boardroom,because they stand to propel the next wave of business value creation.Some call them hock

8、ey sticks.Others,S-curves or rocket ships.We call them xTech“x”in the sense of an arithmetic variablebecause there are manyand in the sense of exponential,insofar as each of these domains might feel inconsequential to your business today,or even tomorrow,but prove to become table stakes for your bus

9、iness strategy the day after tomorrow.Were grateful youre spending some time with us exploring whats NExT(i.e.,Novel&Exponential Technologies).“When youre dealing with exponential growth,the time to act is when it feels too early.”Paul Graham,co-founder of Y Combinator1 4INTRODUCTIONBillions have be

10、en made by 20th-century pioneers who helped their customers realize value from InfoTech.Trillions will be made by 21st-century pioneers who will help their customers realize value from xTech.For starters,x=space.Onward,!mbMike Bechtel Chief Futurist Deloitte Consulting LLPHeres to the future,RaquelR

11、aquel BuscainoNExT SpaceTech LeadDeloitte Consulting LLPWHY SPACE?WHY NOW?Space beckons.From our species earliest days,a desire to explore beyond the boundaries of our known world has driven human expansion.Why else would we have set sail in canoeswithout a known destinationthrough the mighty Pacifi

12、c on our way to settle the islands of Oceania?There is a distinctly human quality that pulls at our hearts as we consider unknown frontiers,quietly convincing us that they,too,must be explored.Those earliest sea explorers looked to the stars to guide them on their journeys,but the sea and stars are

13、connected in more ways than this.The driving motivations that led prior humans to explore the sea are remarkably similar to those of todays space pioneersfrom creating new sources of wealth and economic opportunity to deepening our understanding of our world and universe.Enabled by advancements in t

14、echnology,and fueled by government and commercial cooperation,the ages of sea and space exploration have shapedand will continue to shapethe trajectory of humanity.5INTRODUCTIONSpace is at the same inflection point as the sea during the Age of Exploration in the 16th and 17th centuries.We are at the

15、 dawn of a new era of space exploration.Space has never been more accessible,and,in turn,the untapped potential for breakthrough discoveries has never been greater.In this report,well chronicle this inflection point in space access and opportunity.Space exploration is no longer a venture only for go

16、vernment agencies or space companies.In previous decades,a thoughtfully developed tech strategy became a competitive imperative;similarly,over the coming decades,companies across all industries will increasingly need to consider whether a space strategy will be a key component of their future.We haz

17、ard a guess that in the future,every company will likely be a space company.However,they will probably participate at varying levels.Some businesses may be creators of products and services in the space economy while others will be purveyors that support space-based activities;still others will be c

18、onsumers of space services.This may seem like hyperbole,but like Tech Trends,this report aims to help companies maintain a competitive edge by forecasting into the future.From agriculture companies using satellite data to optimize crop yields to pharmaceutical companies using the advantages of micro

19、gravity to develop life-saving solutions,well demonstrate how industries can leapfrog to the next opportunity by leveraging space-based technology advances and providing products and services to the growing space industry.This new era will present profound challengesmany in number,and major in scale

20、.But these issues will,in turn,present opportunities for leading organizations to leverage their existing expertise in space,as they might for any new market here on Earth.If weve learned anything in researching this report,its that space is indeed the ultimate emerging market.We must be careful,how

21、ever,that in our pursuit of progress we strive to mindfully avoid the pitfalls of our past.Just as seafaring expeditions resulted in unforeseen biological and environmental changes,we need to ensure that our exploration of space does not follow suit.We must learn from our past,even as we yearn for o

22、ur future,and aim to build a space ecosystem that is responsible and safe;sustainable and efficient;inclusive,equitable,and accessible;and economically viable.Hyperbolic headlines and Hollywood hijinks notwithstanding,we aspire to make one thing clear:We do not build our presence in space to escape

23、Earth,but to enrich it.We may not yet recognize how the direct and indirect scientific,economic,social,and other benefits of space exploration will manifest themselves,but we anticipate that there will be many.What will be your organizations role in space?For those who are willing to claim their sea

24、t in the cockpit and buckle in,an abundance of opportunity awaits.The future is not ours to receive,but ours to create.And the countdown has already started.6INTRODUCTIONABOUT THE REPORTThe space industry is rife with jargon and acronyms.Our aim is to break down the complexity of technical space ter

25、minology and illustrate the cross-industry opportunities that space presents.There are certainly engineering and business barriers to be overcome,but our hope is to paint a picture of the possibilities if and when these challenges are addressed.For organizations that live and breathe in the space se

26、ctor,there are still insights to glean from the report,but we also recommend referring to additional Deloitte Space eminence that dives deeper into specific space topics.Readers may notice that much of the discussion is related to the American space sector.Compared to its peers,the United States is

27、in a unique position due to long-term and ongoing government investment in its space economy,and this was reflected in the research we conducted.However,our audience is global;the business opportunities described likely will be available to organizations regardless of geographic boundaries.INTERVIEW

28、S WITH INDUSTRY EXPERTSSome of our greatest insights came from speaking with leading industry experts.Wed like to thank the following individuals for their time and contribution:Greg Autry,space policy expert Tory Bruno,CEO of United Launch Alliance Sarah Cruddas,space journalist and author Maureen

29、Haverty,VP at Seraphim Space Roger Launius,former chief historian at NASA Mike Lewis,chief innovation officer at Nanoracks Dan Lockney,Technology Transfer Program executive at NASA Jeff Matthews,director of strategy at Radian Aerospace Nobu Okada,founder and CEO of Astroscale Rod Pyle,editor-in-chie

30、f,Ad Astra Scott Rodriguez,VP of Government Programs at Nanoracks Tom Vice,CEO of Sierra Space7INTRODUCTIONSTRUCTURETo help you understand your organizations potential role in space,we structured this report into three chapters,as described here and shown on the next page in our SpaceTech frontiers

31、framework.HERE Right here,on Earth,the space economys historical barriers to entry are being decreased,de-risked,and democratized.NEAR Very near,in Earths orbits,entrepreneurs and enterprises alike are turning possibility into profitability,today.THERE Out there,in deep space,a new frontier for huma

32、n health,wealth,and wisdom awaits.A myriad of opportunities and issues are relevant across the Here,Near,and There chapters.Weve sprinkled callouts on these topicsregulatory and ethical considerations;cybersecurity and defense;sustainability;and media,entertainment,and marketingthroughout the report

33、,signified by the heading Everywhere.SpaceTech frontiersHEREReducing barriers to entry and explorationNEARCapturing higher-value business cases in Earths orbitsTHEREExploring new frontiers for health,wealth,and wisdomDiagram is not to scaleE V E R Y W H E R EUpward boundSustainability Cyber and defe

34、nseMedia,entertainment,and marketingRegulationEthicsGateways to the galaxyDestination:Space The human problemThe new gold rushLunarreduxThe Red PlanetOffworld productionDefying gravityCosmiccleanupNew constellations89HEREReducing barriers to entry and exploration10HERE ON EARTHHERERight HERE,on Eart

35、h,the space economys historical barriers to entry are being decreased,de-risked,and democratized.As a result,its easier than ever before for many businessesnot only in the United States,but globallyto access the opportunities that exist beyond Earths surface and across the space value chain.These op

36、portunities are not only for traditional space industry organizations,but also for end markets including transportation,finance,manufacturing,pharmaceutical,and research organizations,in addition to others.Well discuss these in further detail in this and in other report chapters.Here on Earth,opport

37、unities and activities include those related to launch vehicles,spaceport development,supply chain and logistics,data processing,and ground terminals,among others.In this section,well focus on how innovative launch vehicles and spaceport infrastructure are helping drive the commercial space flight r

38、evolution.Well explore the growth in these two areas and learn how theyre providing companies in all industries the ability to access spaces exciting business opportunities.UPWARD BOUNDNovel launch vehicles open new avenues to spaceBasic rocket functions remain unchanged from the earliest days of sp

39、ace exploration,as shown in the timeline on the next page.But new advancements are making the process more affordable and leading to innovative(i.e.,new and improved)ways of leaving our planet.In 2015,SpaceX demonstrated the ability to successfully land a rocket back on Earth intact for use in futur

40、e launches.3 Reusable rocketsalong with advancements in materials science and spacecraft manufacturingare dramatically lowering the cost for private companies to launch payloads and people into space.Today,the The US space shuttle flew its final mission in 2011,and at the time,it felt like the end o

41、f an era.Apollo astronauts Neil Armstrong,Jim Lovell,and Eugene Cernan addressed an open letter to then-President Barack Obama,saying“For the United States,the leading spacefaring nation for nearly half a century,to be without carriage to low Earth orbit and with no human exploration capability to g

42、o beyond Earth orbit for an indeterminate time into the future,destines our nation to become one of second or even third rate stature.”2But Americas space ambitions didnt end with the termination of the shuttle program,as some had feared;they instead entered a second stageone in which commercial and

43、 government capabilities are growing in tandem.With government agencies providing financial support and sharing workloads,space is now accessible to both governments and private companies alike.11HERE ON EARTHcost per kilogram of upmassthe payload mass carried from Earth into orbitvaries substantial

44、ly depending on launch provider,the type of rocket used,and how deep into orbit you want to go but,in general,has declined substantially.4As costs decrease,the launch business model is also evolving.Rideshare missions,in which multiple payloads from different customers are hosted on a single launch

45、vehicle,can help businesses get payloads to orbit in a more cost-efficient,timely,and sustainable manner.Reusable rockets and payload-as-a-service business models have opened a wide market of private demand,leading to unprecedented growth of commercial space activity and global commercial competitio

46、n.“I joined the space industry five years ago and it has been completely,fully transformed,”says Maureen Haverty,vice president at Seraphim Space,an investor in space startups.5“Its now a very vibrant ecosystem with high customer demand.”A host of future-facing innovations could soon supplement exis

47、ting rocket capacity.Space Shuttle Atlantis flies its last mission,ending the Space Shuttle program and catalyzing future NASA partnerships with commercial launch providers 2011ULA Atlas V completes its first launch20022023Relativity Space manufactures and tests the worlds first 3D-printed rocketSpa

48、ceX Starship,the largest rocket ever built,completes its first test flight Blue Origins New Shepard 2 achieves suborbital vertical takeoff vertical landing(VTVL)20152022NASA alters an asteroids orbit with the DART spacecraftBlue Origin completes its first crewed suborbital flight with four private c

49、itizens on board2021China launches the Tiangong space station GovernmentCommercial and government partnershipsCommercial advancementsSource:Deloitte analysisSpaceX Falcon 9 is the first private spacecraft to launch into orbit and return safely to Earth2010NASA partners with SpaceX to launch the firs

50、t crewed flight to the ISS via a private US company2020James Webb Space Telescope is launched in collaboration with NASA,ESA,and CSAThe US launches fruit flies into space onboard a German V-2 rocket1947Apollo 11 astronauts Armstrong and Aldrin become the first humans on the Moon 1969American Robert

51、Goddard launches the first liquid-fueled rocket1926The Soviet Union launches Sputnik,the first satellite,into orbit19571961Yuri Gagarin from the Soviet Union becomes the first human in spaceHubble Space Telescope is deployed from Space Shuttle Discovery1990Space Shuttle Challenger explodes shortly a

52、fter liftoff,making it the worst disaster in the shuttle era1986The US launches Space Shuttle Columbia,the first crewed reusable spacecraft to orbit,ensuring future launch access to LEO19811980French-based Arianespace becomes the worlds first commercial launch service providerA HISTORY OF LAUNCHHow

53、innovation in rocketry made space accessibleNASA,Roscosmos,JAXA,ESA,and CSA launch the first segment of the ISS,which becomes critical to future research and space missions1998Pathfinder,the first Martian Rover,launches on a Delta II booster199612HERE ON EARTHCurrently in development are lighter-tou

54、ch techniques that lower costs,including rockets manufactured primarily from 3D-printed parts,6 containerized launch solutions that fit in shipping containers,7 and centrifugal launch systems that fling payloads into orbit without using rockets at all.8 Shuttle-like vehicles that operate like airpla

55、nes will further democratize entry to space:Horizontal takeoff and landing capabilities will allow them to launch from and land on both airport and spaceport runways,which will help extend space access to companies and governments in countries without spaceports.9Together,these developing innovation

56、s have the potential to dramatically lower costs and increase opportunities for companies in nearly every industry to participate in the space economy.A competitive launch ecosystem is already thriving,and in turn,creating new business opportunities in areas as divergent as space logistics;explorati

57、on;resource extraction;in-space servicing,assembly,and manufacturing(ISAM);and space tourism.(Well cover each of these in the Near and There chapters).EVERYWHEREMedia,entertainment,and marketingSpace is a new sandbox for experimenting with advertising and brand positioning.Like they did during the f

58、irst space race,products and brands can build positive and futuristic customer perceptions using space-based motifs.For example,to highlight their brands dedication to creative education,LEGO created a STEM education program with NASA and the Artemis Moon mission to bring space education to the clas

59、sroom.10Space Shuttle Atlantis flies its last mission,ending the Space Shuttle program and catalyzing future NASA partnerships with commercial launch providers 2011ULA Atlas V completes its first launch20022023Relativity Space manufactures and tests the worlds first 3D-printed rocketSpaceX Starship,

60、the largest rocket ever built,completes its first test flight Blue Origins New Shepard 2 achieves suborbital vertical takeoff vertical landing(VTVL)20152022NASA alters an asteroids orbit with the DART spacecraftBlue Origin completes its first crewed suborbital flight with four private citizens on bo

61、ard2021China launches the Tiangong space station GovernmentCommercial and government partnershipsCommercial advancementsSource:Deloitte analysisSpaceX Falcon 9 is the first private spacecraft to launch into orbit and return safely to Earth2010NASA partners with SpaceX to launch the first crewed flig

62、ht to the ISS via a private US company2020James Webb Space Telescope is launched in collaboration with NASA,ESA,and CSA13HERE ON EARTHGATEWAYS TO THE GALAXYSpaceport development is critical for meeting launch demandPutting a rocket into space is no trivial endeavor.A host of infrastructure and servi

63、ces is necessary for safe launchesequipment to pack payload onto rockets,air and space traffic management,refueling services,advanced vehicle testing,and emergency responders,to name just a few.This concentrated infrastructure is known as a spaceport.Think of it like a seaport,which is more than jus

64、t a place to launch a shipits also where all the commercial activity related to shipping organizes itself.Similarly,spaceports are gateways,providing countries and,increasingly,companies with assured access to spaces commercial,scientific,or defensive capabilities.In the past,spaceports have typical

65、ly been controlled by government agencies like NASA or ESA.11 That will likely continue to be the case for the most part,but a more local,distributed group of entities,including private companies,is now supplementing space infrastructure and services capacityeither through the creation of new spacep

66、orts or the modernization of existing spaceport capabilities.“Were building these superhighways,these bridges,these hubs,that will connect Earth and space in a very unique way,”says Tom Vice,CEO of Sierra Space.12At this writing,there are at least 28 active spaceports worldwide that have been used t

67、o launch satellites into orbit,with more planned to come online in the next few years.13 The capacity is needed:The number of objects launched into orbit has increased dramatically in the past several years,and this surplus of demand is expected to strain existing launch infrastructure.14Spaceports

68、can function as hubs for research and development,STEM skills training,transportation,and manufacturing,not to mention jobs and tax revenue.15 National,state,and local governments have an opportunity to build the infrastructure to help meet this demand while creating centers for burgeoning space lau

69、nch activity.Some government officials,such as those in the US states of Michigan and Arkansas,are already considering proposals to work toward this goal.16 Sweden opened mainland Europes first spaceport in early 202317 and the United Kingdom is proposing to build several in Scotland,18 while Africa

70、s first spaceport will be developed in Djibouti.19 Its worth noting another caveat:Just as location is important in developing a seaport,so,too,it is with spaceports.To help minimize fuel consumption,rockets typically launch in an eastward direction,with most spaceports tending to have sparsely popu

71、lated areas or oceans to their east.Additionally,some latitudes on Earth are better for launching into different Earth orbits than others.20 14HERE ON EARTH EVERYWHERESustainability As the number of rocket launches and spaceports increases,noise and pollution could negatively impact Earths ecosystem

72、s.21 It will be critical to continue developing technologies that reduce environmental impact,such as reusable rockets(which are more environmentally friendly because they reduce the amount of raw material needed),alternative launch approaches,and responsible fuel sources.In addition,developers will

73、 need to build buy-in from communities that may be most impacted by spaceports.For example,Michigan officials are currently facing backlash over their plans to build a spaceport from local residents who fear a crash or explosion could cause major damage to Lake Superior.22 Right now,limited launch c

74、apacity is a major bottleneck in our ability to venture off-world.Yet with massive launch vehicles under developmentsuch as SpaceXs Starship,which is being designed to have a payload of up to 150 tons and carry 100 passengers23we anticipate this choke point may eventually be reduced.When that happen

75、s,we can imagine a future in which spaceports dot the spacefaring nations,like seaports in cities with the natural features to support them.There are plenty of challenges,but as we discovered in the age of sea exploration,overcoming them opens new frontiers.As the pace of launches picks up,nations,c

76、ities,and states with the appropriate location and features that support spaceport infrastructure may benefit from this emerging trend.FINAL THOUGHTS An increase in payload capacity,launch frequency,and spaceport capabilities is opening up access to Earths orbits and beyondand the space industrys sh

77、ifting business model for reaching space is further enabling this transformation.In the same way that computer processing and storage has moved from on-premises to the cloud,launch capabilities are transitioning to an as-a-service model.Space launch is no longer a do-it-yourself end-to-end initiativ

78、e,nor a project to be outsourced to a single contractor.Instead,the as-a-service business model is transforming space launch in the same way that the cloud democratized IT:making it increasingly accessible,responsive,and affordable.It is now easier than ever before for organizations to take advantag

79、e of opportunities along the space value chain.But for these nontraditional space companies,it will be important to have a plan anchored securely on terra firma.For many businesses,the space economys greatest value will come in the form of satellite communications,navigation,and datawhich,as were ab

80、out to explain,already plays a significant role in most,if not all,businesses.NEARCapturing higher-value business cases in Earths orbits16NEAR IN EARTHS ORBITSNEARVery NEAR,in Earths orbits,entrepreneurs and enterprises alike are turning possibility into profitability,today.In pop culture lexicon,sp

81、ace is often termed the“final frontier,”evoking images of a vast,empty region to be discovered and chartered.Far from Earth,in deep space,these images can ring true.But in the major orbits of our planet,space is anything but empty.Rather,an energized ecosystem of satellites,space stations,and servic

82、es already exists,and its flourishing.24 For instance,satellites in geosynchronous orbit(GEO,above 22,000 miles from Earth)and medium Earth orbit(MEO,above 1,200 miles from Earth),enable much of the telecommunications equipment and GPS systems we take for granted today.However,recent innovation and

83、investment have been focused on exciting possibilities within low Earth orbit(LEO,below 1,200 miles from Earth)the primary focus of this chapter.25 Lower launch costs have led to a space“gold rush,”as corporations race to fill LEO with services,infrastructure,and research.For example,agricultural eq

84、uipment manufacturer John Deere is aiming to increase rural connectivity using LEO satellites to enable smart farming,while biotech firms are keen to explore tissue engineering in microgravity conditions.26A new kind of space race is on.But unlike the original sprint to the Moon,the race to LEO is a

85、 marathon,occurring over an extended period with many phases,as companies and governments build on past experiments and determine their capabilities and constraints in space.As organizations compete to launch new satellites and commercial space stations,others are developing expertise in service and

86、 repair to extend the life of objects already in orbit,while a select few are concerned with enabling the first wave of space tourism.“The last 60 years were focused on exploring space.The future is now how to harness space to benefit life on Earthhow to extend cities and factories into low Earth or

87、bit,”says Sierra Spaces Vice.“We are on the cusp of a profound industrial revolution.”NEW CONSTELLATIONSSatellites are powering a smarter,more connected EarthDating apps,gas stations,and stock trades surprisingly have one thing in common:Theyre enabled by satellites.27 Satellites across Earths orbit

88、s uniquely solve business use cases that require precise location,exact timing,and/or enhanced connectivity and imaging.As such,the market for satellites 17NEAR IN EARTHS ORBITSis showing impressive growth:In 2022 alone,the total number of active satellites increased by 44%to nearly 7,000,with rough

89、ly 3,800 in LEO,and Deloitte estimates the number in LEO could grow to more than 40,000 by 2030.28 Today,thanks to the breakthrough technology advancements and diminishing launch costs that we discussed in the previous chapter,a nanosata miniaturized satellite weighing between 1 and 10 kilogramscan

90、be deployed to LEO for under US$100,000.In comparison,traditional satellites are often much largersome the size of a busand cost tens or hundreds of millions of US dollars to launch into orbit.29 With a constellation of small satellites orbiting and communicating together,similar to a Wi-Fi mesh net

91、work,a company can mimic the coverage offered by large satellites in GEO while taking advantage of the lower latency and sharper image resolution afforded by being closer to Earth.30 By combining the increased access to satellites with existing tools like edge computing and AI,early adopters are fin

92、ding major improvements in their ability to trace,measure,and predict throughout their supply chains.Some businesses may want to stand up their own capabilities for custom configuration,while others may partner with satellite-as-a-service companies such as Planet or Spire to access high-frequency da

93、ta and foundational analytics.31 In either case,companies keen to tap into LEOs economic opportunities have begun leveraging these advances in three main areas:satellite communications(satcom),satellite navigation(satnav),and earth observation(EO)and remote sensing.SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS The large

94、st market share in satellite opportunities belongs to satcom.Roughly 80%of satellite launches from 2020 through April 2022 have been communications satellites,up from 40%in 2019,and major telecom providers are capitalizing on this growth to expand internet access for customers.32Recent activity in t

95、he business-to-business-to-consumer market centers on partnerships.For example,T-Mobile and Starlink have joined forces to eliminate cellular dead zones,33 and Verizon has teamed up with Amazons Project Kuiper to expand global 5G coverage.34 Meanwhile,Apples35 landmark Emergency SOS satellite commun

96、ications feature was made possible by its partnership with Globalstar.36 And Qualcomm and Iridium Communications are collaborating to offer direct-to-satellite communicationno Wi-Fi or cellular data neededon select Android phones.37EVERYWHERERegulation Competition for prime orbital positions could c

97、reate a demand rush that places stress on the“first come,first served”policy that the International Telecommunications Union has relied upon to coordinate geosynchronous orbit satellite frequency services.38 This dynamic could one day lead to a“landless land grab”in lower orbits if updated regulatio

98、n doesnt pave the way to new global rules of engagement for nation-states and private organizations.18NEAR IN EARTHS ORBITSIn the business-to-business market,broadband providers are partnering with transportation companies such as Hawaiian Airlines and Royal Caribbean to provide their customers with

99、 high-speed internet access.39 Finally,in the business-to-consumer segment,Starlink supplies broadband internet to more than 1 million active subscribers,while Amazons Project Kuiper has plans to launch its own direct-to-consumer service.40Such innovations can bring reliable internet access to rural

100、 areas and developing countries without ground-based infrastructure.When satellite internet is no longer cost-prohibitive,the possibilities for developing communities are immense:Deloitte estimates that the increase in GDP driven by affordable worldwide internet could lift 160 million people out of

101、poverty,while improved,reliable coverage is likely to keep customers loyal to their mobile operators.41 Increased internet connectivity also empowers use cases in the rapidly growing Internet of Things(IoT)market,especially when devices are out of reach of traditional networks.For instance,Starlink

102、subsidiary Swarm uses satellite constellations to support data transmission to and from IoT devices,so customers can track asset locations in real time instead of waiting for updates from a shipping provider.42 Edge computing extended to remote areas can also improve mining equipment maintenance,liv

103、estock tracking,and smart utility metering.43 In short,the declining cost of leveraging data anywhere can lead to new economies of scale for digital transformation and real-time insights.Companies are moving quickly to utilize satellites and leverage the benefits of LEO-based communications for thei

104、r customers,but theyll need to collaborate to succeed.A crowded orbital environment raises the risk of collision,and,as we detail later on,new partnerships and providers will be required to protect the commons of space and harness its opportunities.EVERYWHERECyber and defenseLike on Earth,satellite

105、data and transmissions are susceptible to theft,jamming,and corruption;governments have already begun targeting their rivals satellites.44 As more organizations find value in leveraging space-based assets,the risk of malicious actors will likely increase.Cyber readiness will be of the utmost importa

106、nce for governments and companies alike.4519NEAR IN EARTHS ORBITSSATELLITE NAVIGATIONWhile the market for satcom is rapidly expanding,many of us have already become accustomed to another major use case for satellites without even realizing it:navigation services.Global navigation satellite systems(G

107、NSS),typically based in MEO,provide location with an accuracy of seven meters,95%of the time.46 This high degree of accuracy,enabled by atomic clocks on satellites,leads to use cases far beyond road-trip directions,such as guiding missiles,enabling modern air travel,and more.47 The market for GNSS w

108、as valued at more than US$220 billion in 2021,and is projected to reach US$547 billion by 2031.48 The first uses of satellite navigation originated from the US Navys need to track its nuclear submarines.49 Today,GNSS includes US GPS satellites as well as systems launched by Russia,China,and the EU t

109、hat enable precise location and timing across industries,from remotely guiding mining machinery to tracking animals for biodiversity and time-stamping financial transactions.50 Consumers are already accustomed to GNSS data-enabling fitness apps and social networks,and organizations are expected to i

110、ncrease the use of GNSS applications in the coming years.For instance,as AI improves the capabilities of robotics and autonomous vehicles,these devices will employ GNSS sensors to navigate farms and roads51 and even measure the shifts in volcanic land to predict which areas to evacuate first.52 As s

111、martphone and IoT usage continue to grow,more and more devices can be tracked and guided through satnav,leading to an increasingly digital world.Together,satnav and Earth observation could help businesses unlock a new paradigm of data collection and analysis in every step of their supply chains,as o

112、utlined below.EARTH OBSERVATION AND REMOTE SENSING Just as reliable GNSS data led to downstream business innovations such as integrated storefront information and ubiquitous customer reviews,EO and remote sensing satellites stand to help businesses and consumers see almost every aspect of the planet

113、 as a high-fidelity data point to be analyzed and optimized.For example,retailers can monitor foot traffic and parking lot activity to assess their performance against competitors stores.53 Considering the possibilities,the EO market,which accounts for approximately 10%of the total space market,is f

114、orecasted to grow from US$3 billion today to US$8 billion in 2030 and US$25 billion by 2040.54Businesses eager to apply data-driven decision-making are likely to find that EO data can enable new levels of transparency throughout an entire supply chain.55 For instance,as shown in the illustration on

115、page 20,the journey from farm to table can be tracked from end-to-end,enabling new paradigms for financial planning,consumer expectations,and industry standards around food sourcing.FROM FARM(TO SPACE)TO TABLESatellites are used throughout the agricultural supply chain to improve crop yields,trackin

116、g,and transparencyFARMWeather monitoring:Soil sensors receive weather predictions from satellites for irrigation Equipment tracking:Farm equipment is guided by spatially accurate satellite imagery FINANCELOGISTICS Traceability:Enhance tracking consistency of trucks,planes,and ships in-transitNavigat

117、ion:Ships evade storms,oil spills,and pirates that are not visible on marine tracking systems Crop yield:Price discrepancies are mitigated by accurate forecasts of crop yield ahead of harvest Insurance:Insurance underwriters remotely assess crop or infrastructure damage GROCERYUser research:Assess t

118、rends across stores by measuring parking lot activityDemand forecasting:Send real-time sales data to suppliers and distributors for collaborative planningSATELLITE TECHNOLOGY Earth observation:Satellite remote sensing provides near-real-time global hyperspectral imagery Communications and navigation

119、:Satcom and satnav are available at every step of the supply chainSource:Deloitte analysis.2021NEAR IN EARTHS ORBITS EVERYWHEREEthicsMonitoring the entire Earth through EO satellite data raises ethical concerns over individual privacy and data ownership,especially as image resolution continues to im

120、prove.If a company captures images to monitor attendance at its theme park,should consumers have a right to consent or ensure their images are scrubbed?Guardrails that protect and respect consumer privacy can ensure trust in satellite technology.The potential for similar disruption across industries

121、 is broad:Sustainability.The World Economic Forum estimates that EO data could benefit Africa to the tune of US$2 billion per year by helping reduce environmental damage from gold mining,increasing agricultural productivity,and more.56 In addition,according to ESA and other space agencies,EO data is

122、 essential to climate change modeling efforts,including the stark discovery that the Arctic Ocean could be stripped of sea ice by 2050.57 Health care.Satellite imagery combined with AI can help scientists monitor pollution and diseases to better track and anticipate population-level needs.58 Hospita

123、lity.High-resolution satellite imagery can help businesses assess traffic at attractions such as resorts or sports arenas and provide customers with up-to-date navigation or wait times.59 Defense.Governments can strengthen their surveillance capabilities on borders and in remote locations through EO

124、 imagery.60 Energy.Advanced imagery inputs to AI algorithms can pinpoint ideal sites for oil and gas exploration,provide live feeds to remotely operated robotic drills,and monitor pipelines.61 Security.Satellite tracking of movement can help law enforcement counter human and drug trafficking and coo

125、rdinate emergency response.62 Industrials.Businesses can verify the observed progress of construction projects against reported progress by contractors.63As access to satcom,satnav,and EO data scales and becomes more affordable,space analytics could be used to create digital twins of Eartha global s

126、patial web.64 When combined with AI and IoT devices,a digital twin of the planet could better help users track,monitor,and predict the movement of organic and inorganic assets.For example,EO data combined with AI can help identify optimal routes for cargo ships,enabling them to avoid storms,oil spil

127、ls,and pirate activity;meanwhile,edge computing devices connected via satcom can provide real-time updates on the vessels engine health.Similarly,satellite data can help predict wildfire patterns in California or Australia and provide reliable,constant tracking and communication with response teams.

128、6522NEAR IN EARTHS ORBITSTravelers who have witnessed the progression from printed road maps to current navigation apps can vouch for the benefits of ubiquitous and accessible satellites.The integration of satcom,satnav,and EO data,along with advances in AI and IoT,can fully unlock a new way of moni

129、toring our world,and in turn,doing business in it.In fact,in an increasingly global world embracing remote work and remote access to devices,we may one day wonder how we ever functioned without the expanded connectivity and transparency offered by satellites.Space may be getting crowded,but the futu

130、re promises to be clearer.DEFYING GRAVITYSpace stations provide a new sandbox for experimentationSpace stations are no longer the sole domain of governments.The International Space Station(ISS),the largest international hub for space operations and experiments for more than two decades,is set to be

131、retired around 2030,and governments and corporations alike are interested in the commercial options that will replace it.66 The only other station currently in orbit is Chinas Tiangong,which is already open to commercial activities.67 Going forward,government space agencies hope to allocate more fun

132、ding toward research and major missions like the Artemis Moon exploration program instead of maintaining the ISS.And commercialplayers can benefit from having more flexible space destinations.68 Companies like Axiom Space,Blue Origin,Nanoracks,and Northrop Grumman have begun partnering with consorti

133、a to design mixed-use stations for commerce,research,and even tourism.69Purpose-built for modularity and multifunctionality,the next generation of space stations will likely offer rentable spaces,advanced robotics,and the opportunity to conduct a wide range of experiments,from bioprinting life-savin

134、g kidneys to manufacturing silicon crystals.While R&D grows in the near term,manufacturing is also poised to be a high-growth industry in space.By the end of the decade,businesses may count space as an integral part of their supply chain.Some may endeavor to launch their own projects,while others mi

135、ght rely on experimentation-as-a-service companies,such as Nanoracks or Offworld Biotech,to design,prototype,and launch their ideas.70EVERYWHEREMedia,entertainment,and marketingSatellite data can support groundbreaking reporting from warzones and areas of conflict without risk to journalists lives.W

136、ith live data transmitted from satellites,journalists can instantaneously gather high-definition imagery and global intelligence to synthesize insights.This was the case when the New York Times won the Pulitzer Prize with reporting that used satellite images of Syrian medical facilities reportedly b

137、ombed by Russian aircraft.7123NEAR IN EARTHS ORBITSSpace experimentation offers companies the ability to build and test unique products,as shown in the adjacent illustration.72 For instance,spaces unique conditions can eliminate some of the typical defects found in complex metal alloys,such as those

138、 used for medical implants,and allow researchers to engineer delicate human tissues such as blood vessels.73 Companies could also leverage space environments to test thermal management and radiation on equipment that must operate reliably in harsh Earth environments.74“The thing about space is that

139、we at any moment could have a massive discovery that changes life for everybody.”Mike Lewis,chief innovation officer,Nanoracks75MANUFACTURING IN SPACE The unique conditions of space present new opportunities for manufacturing in ways that are not possible on Earth FIBER OPTIC CABLES Higher-quality c

140、ables lead to improved data transmission and reduced costsORGANSOrgans printed in microgravity are more accurate and functional for research on EarthPHARMACEUTICALS Microgravity allows for higher-quality protein crystals and more effective drug development STEM CELLS Slower growth of stem cells in s

141、pace enables higher production for use in personalized medicineSEMICONDUCTORS Silicon carbide wafers have fewer impurities,leading to improved performanceSource:Deloitte analysis.24NEAR IN EARTHS ORBITSIn addition to manufacturing products in space for use on Earth,opportunities exist to build produ

142、cts in space for use in space.Microgravity permits greater precision in producing parts like mirrors and lenses for spacecraft,and cryogenic temperatures in space are optimal for building bulk metallic glass(BMG)materials used for rovers.And more basic needs can be met as well:NASA has started a gar

143、den,known as Veggie,on the ISS to study plant growth in microgravity while enhancing astronauts diet and well-being.76History offers several examples of industries where government research laid the groundwork for commercial development,including biotechnology,agriculture,and transportation.In the s

144、ame vein,commercial space stations may soon unleash a disruptive new paradigm for R&D and manufacturing.Costs will likely continue to decrease while microgravity-as-a-service offerings make experimentation more accessible.Considering NASA has already invested more than US$545 million to accelerate t

145、he development of commercial space stations,77 state-of-the-art companies in the next decade could be building their products and services not only in London or Tokyo but also in LEO.COSMIC CLEANUPGroundbreaking solutions can create a sustainable orbital ecosystemIts every launch provider and satell

146、ite operators worst nightmare:Speeding through LEO at about 17,500 miles per hour,78 a bit of debris or another satellite tears through their cutting-edge equipment,jeopardizing human lives,millions of dollars worth of technology,or critical communication services.Littering in orbit may be just as h

147、azardous as littering on Earth.Fortunately,debris remediation and mitigation can also be good business.At present,there are more than 25,000 pieces of debris larger than 10 centimeters in orbit,and many millions more smaller particles,resulting from prior launches,decommissioned satellites,and colli

148、sions or explosions.79 There have been seven known collisions between objects in orbit,and ESA expects that number to increase.80 Even the ISS,which is heavily shielded,must be moved once per year on average to avoid a potential impact.81 A critical mass of such collisions could lead to the dreaded

149、Kessler Syndrome:A chain reaction in which every in-orbit collision creates new space debris that leads to further collisions faster than objects can be removed.82“The space industry has had a throw-away culture.Theyve just used rockets and satellites once,then disposed of them.”Nobu Okada,founder a

150、nd CEO of Astroscale8325NEAR IN EARTHS ORBITSEVERYWHERECyber and defense Several countries have conducted testing of direct-ascent anti-satellite weapons(ASATs),affecting the amount of debris in LEO.For example,Russias 2021 test created more than 1,500 trackable shards and potentially hundreds of th

151、ousands of smaller pieces.Fragments from the test headed toward the ISS,forcing its seven crewmembers to implement emergency measures until the danger of a collision had passed.84For these reasons,debris remediation and mitigation has become more important than ever,and innovative businesses are tac

152、kling this issue in three major areas:Navigating the debris field.To navigate the debris field,satellite operators are turning to space situational awareness(keeping track of objects in orbit and predicting their movements)and space traffic management(preventing those objects from colliding).Governm

153、ent bureaus such as ESA,JAXA,and NASA have dedicated teams in these fields,and a growing crop of startups including AstriaGraph,Kayhan Space,and Vyoma offer software to help launch providers track,map,and model the location of objects in LEO.85 Preventing the creation of future debris.Satellite expl

154、osions and collisions are the main source of large orbital debrisa risk thats heightened by more than 1,800 defunct satellites in LEO that cant be maneuvered like active satellites.86 To combat this,satellite providers are improving design and operations to reduce such malfunctions,and several UN me

155、mber states have voted to refrain from ASAT tests that cause satellite explosions.87 Removing debris in orbit.Some companies are developing experimental methods of capturing floating debrisfor example,using magnets or large clawsand escorting it down to Earth to burn up in the outer layers of the at

156、mosphere.88 Space debris cleanup solutions are in the experimental phase,but many companies are rushing to address the issue given the scale and criticality of the problem.Additionally,government agencies are aiming to shorten the timeline for mandatory de-orbiting of inactive satellites.89LEO is fu

157、ll of business opportunities,yet the trash still needs to be taken out.Tech companies or waste management specialists could seize a lucrative piece of the growing space market by developing solutions that enhance current remediation and mitigation measures.For instance,quantum computing could empowe

158、r constant and robust space situational awareness optimization,and AI built into satellites and spacecraft can aid in autonomous collision avoidance.Optical(laser-based)communications could also improve response times as organizations share information.If the road to such exponential opportunities i

159、n space is to remain safe,organizations will need to clear the litter.26NEAR IN EARTHS ORBITSOFFWORLD PRODUCTIONA self-sufficient space economy is underway Imagine driving from New York to Los Angeles without a single gas station en route.Perhaps the car trunk could hold enough gas to make the journ

160、ey,but what if a detour is needed?What if a minor engine issue requires a wrench and theres not a repair shop in sight?Historically,space mission planning has been based on such scenarios.The need to transport fuel,repair equipment,and other components and materials can severely restrict mission len

161、gth and objectives.In-space servicing,assembly,and manufacturing(ISAM)is set to revolutionize space operations by changing whats possible in space,from extending satellite life spans to building new environments and habitats in orbit.To be continuous,convenient,efficient,and ultimately profitable,sp

162、ace operations should be self-sustaining.ISAM consists of three categories that enable organizations to think of space as a long-term destination:Servicing to refuel,repair,replace,or augment existing assets,reducing the expensive and unsustainable replacement of spacecraft every few years.Assembly

163、of components,which enables organizations to build objects in space that cant be sent from Earth due to launch constraints,or cant be built on Earth at all due to gravity.Manufacturing in microgravity,in which raw materials are transformed into usable components through additive manufacturing and ot

164、her processes.Companies that conduct servicing,assembly,or manufacturing activities on Earth could consider which existing markets or clients might soon appear in the space economy,and how they might adapt and apply current assets to the space market.They can also prepare now to meet the unique chal

165、lenges and requirements of operating in orbit,as every aspect of the mission life cycle requires a skilled provider.For example,the ability to repair deep-sea oil leaks under harsh conditions could provide oil and gas companies with a synergistic opportunity to retool existing technologies for use i

166、n space.Additive manufacturing companies could 3D-print parts and structures in space,while robotics firms can further reduce the need for human intervention in space repairs.Those outside the space industry can also study existing efforts by space companies to prepare for the emerging on-demand ISA

167、M economy.For instance,Northrop Grumman is building on its existing mission life extension technologies by first developing robotic satellite servicing vehicles,and further down the road,refueling pods and depots and in-orbit assembly and repair vehicles.90 And startups like Orbit Fab are already de

168、veloping in-orbit refueling technologies and services and have tested their hardware on the ISS.9127NEAR IN EARTHS ORBITSAs ISAM providers scale to address the thousands of spacecraft in orbit,the space economy is poised to move away from single-use components toward a more sustainable future.While

169、the market is still nascent,businesses outside the space industry have a strong opportunity to adopt advances in technologies like robotics and AI to reduce the need for human involvement in space repair and assembly.As ISAM also reduces reliance on Earth,future missions should be free to push the b

170、oundaries of what can be achieved in space.DESTINATION:SPACE Space tourism creates adjacent industry opportunitiesIf the open road continues to serve as a metaphor for space,then todays space tourism is the equivalent of a Bugatti driving through the countryside.In other words,its exceedingly rare a

171、nd attainable by only a select few with extreme financial means.Still,Deloitte estimates that demand for space tourism could reach an annual market of US$3.3 billion by 2035.92 As this market grows,so,too,will opportunities for Earth-based companies to capitalize on adjoining niches and serve wealth

172、y consumers:Space travel agencies.Companies like Space Adventures have pioneered early commercial visits to the ISS.93 As space becomes a more common destination,highly specialized travel agencies will likely develop to help their clients discern the best orbital flight options and negotiate a good

173、price.Accommodations for commercial activity.As an increase in commercial LEO activity requires hosting more engineers,builders,and tourists in space,hospitality companies have an opportunity to pair their expertise with space providers.For example,Hilton is collaborating with Voyager Space to desig

174、n communal spaces and crew accommodations for astronauts aboard the Starlab space station.94 Space insurance.Space tourism companies are not currently required to offer insurance to passengers,and most life insurance policies exclude space tourism coverage.Existing insurance providers may have an op

175、portunity to tap into a network of high-net-worth individuals likely willing to pay higher premiums for apt coverage.Early movers like Battleface are already offering insurance to space tourists.95 Using space travel for Earth travel.Projecting forward into the future,companies could also explore th

176、e potential of point-to-point space travel:flying through space to travel at record speed from one point on Earth to another.For example,SpaceX is designing flights that can travel from New York to Shanghai in under an hour or quickly deliver cargo anywhere on Earth to support disaster relief.96 Suc

177、h capabilities,though still far from reality,could offer a new option for global travel.28NEAR IN EARTHS ORBITSWhile space tourism is still years away from being a common occurrence,the opportunities expand well beyond those listed above.Companies in the food industry have already prepared beverages

178、 and snacks for consumption in orbit,while specialty clothing and merchandise serve as status symbols signifying a flight to the stars.Italian coffee manufacturer Lavazza partnered with the Italian Space Agency on an experimental microgravity espresso maker and coffee capsules,and Under Armour partn

179、ered with Virgin Galactic to design bespoke spacesuits for future space tourists.97Actor William Shatner,who flew to space aboard a passenger flight with Blue Origin in 2021,provides a guide to thinking about the power of space tourism,especially as it becomes more accessible.“I had thought that goi

180、ng into space would be the ultimate catharsis of that connection I had been looking for between all living thingsthat being up there would be the next beautiful step to understanding the harmony of the universe,”he said.“I had a different experience,because I discovered that the beauty isnt out ther

181、e,its down here,with all of us.Leaving that behind made my connection to our tiny planet even more profound.”98FINAL THOUGHTSAs we discussed in the previous chapter,groundbreaking innovations have opened up space to a broad array of enterprises and serve as a launch pad for the burgeoning LEO econom

182、y.Commercial players have a clear opportunity to establish market share in a sector that shares many similarities with Earth and has attracted over US$250 billion in private investments over the past decade.Companies have historically adapted their business models for globalization by knowing what a

183、nd where to outsource and by tailoring their products and services to different markets.Now,they will need to do the same for the next phase of globalization:post-globalization,or beyond the globe itself.THEREExploring new frontiers for health,wealth,and wisdom30OUT THERE IN DEEP SPACETHEREOut THERE

184、,in deep space,a new frontier for human health,wealth,and wisdom awaits.At the beginning of 2023,four NASA crewmembers climbed into a round capsule measuring just over 19 feet in diameter.They had little human contactexcept with each otherfor 45 days,and any communication with NASA operations was su

185、bject to a 10-minute delay.Their survival was entirely dependent on the supplies they packed and the technology inside the capsule.But the crew was not heading off to some distant planet.Part of NASAs Human Exploration Research Analog mission,they were testing capabilities for a potential future mis

186、sion to the Martian moon Phobos.99 During the 45 days of isolation,NASA kept tabs on their physical and mental health to see how astronauts handled a lengthy mission confined to close quarters with their fellow crewmembers.While the crew traveled no farther than the Johnson Space Center in Houston,T

187、exas,their mission is laying the groundwork for a much longer journey.NASA and other international space agencies,as well as private companies,are actively testing technologies that will be needed to send astronauts back to the Moon and beyond.100 The first stop is a return to the Moon,as several na

188、tions have laid out ambitious plans to head to Earths natural satellite.From there,its onward to Mars.Building long-term habitations off Earth,venturing to distant planets,and mining celestial objects are becoming more plausible with each passing day.Those nations able to crack the challenges that c

189、ome along with deep space traveland private companies that support or even lead their own missionsstand to reap substantial rewards in terms of scientific advances,economic activity,and potentially valuable natural resources.THE HUMAN PROBLEMHow do we solve for space explorations weakest link?Global

190、 space agencies have already sent robotic probes across our solar system,and,indeed,to interstellar space.101 Probes can provide a lot of information about the conditions on distant planets and in deep space,but humans have always wanted to explore new frontiers firsthand.“If our objective is to lea

191、rn about the universe,we have robot emissaries that do that exceptionally well,and we dont care whether or not they return,”says Roger Launius,former chief historian of NASA.102“If our objective is to become a multi-planetary species,then the human element is critical.”The challenge,however,is that

192、space presents unique threats to human life,such as increased radiation exposure and adapting to different levels of gravity.31OUT THERE IN DEEP SPACEPeople evolved for life here on Earth,but the conditions we will encounter in space are completely alien.“Humans are the weakest link in space,”says S

193、cott Rodriguez,vice president of government programs at Nanoracks,a company contributing to the development of one of the first private space stations.103 Irregular sunrises and sunsets disrupt astronauts circadian rhythms,making it difficult for them to get deep,restful sleep.104 Communication dela

194、ys between space and Earthonly a couple of seconds on the Moon but between 5 to 20 minutes on Marscan make connecting with loved ones a challenge,leading to feelings of intense isolation.105 Astronauts receive comprehensive training for dealing with stressful conditions,but space travel is still a d

195、angerous and high-pressure activity.Space agencies and private companies are tackling some of these challenges as they plan for missions farther out into space.One promising approach is to build more inviting habitats than the utilitarian environments weve previously deployed.Future innovation could

196、 provide new solutions.For example,NASA,in partnership with the Translational Research Institute for Space Health,is developing a machine learning algorithm that will read astronauts various biomedical markers to predict changes in behavioral health.106Further out,we may see artificial gravity in sp

197、ace:University of Colorado researchers have given credence to age-old science fiction tropes by proposing practical spacecraft with rooms that spin,using centrifugal force to simulate gravity.107 One speculative concept,ONeill cylinders,consists of living structures in which large rotating cylinders

198、 mimic gravity by taking advantage of centrifugal force.The idea is purely theoretical,in part due to its massive imputed size:5 miles in diameter and 20 miles long.108While the challenges of radiation and microgravity are very real,the proposed solutions remain very much in development,as shown in

199、the adjacent illustration.Business and technological expertise is needed to develop solutions for some of these unique challenges,be they AI-based counseling services,radiation-shielding clothing and vehicles,or novel preventive medications.In the distant future,perhaps gene editing technologies cou

200、ld be used to create a new generation of astronauts who are more resistant to the perils of long-term space travel.32OUT THERE IN DEEP SPACESource:Deloitte analysis.231*Not an exhaustive list SMART SENSORS for monitoring astronaut health and environmental risksINFRASTRUCTURE such as radiation shield

201、ing,light exposure controls,and artificially generated gravity AI is poised to provide on-demand mental and physical health counseling to astronauts on long missions KEY CHALLENGES TIME IN SPACEcauses immune cells to become overactive,leading to rashes and allergies RADIATIONfrom the sun and deep sp

202、ace damages astronauts DNA,causing cataracts,cancers,and other health problemsBIOMEDICAL SOLUTIONSincluding common medications for osteoporosis and kidney stones could support astronauts health MICROGRAVITY can cause astronauts to lose as much as1.5%OF THEIR BONE MASS,as well as contribute to kidney

203、 stones 50%OF THEIR MUSCLE MASS,THE PHYSICAL TOLL OF SPACE TRAVELHumans spent billions of years evolving to live here on Earth.What happens when we leave Earth behind?INNOVATION-DRIVENCOUNTERMEASURES 3233OUT THERE IN DEEP SPACELUNAR REDUXReturning to the Moon is a quantum leap for humankindThe last

204、time a human walked on the Moon was 1972,when two NASA astronauts spent about 75 hours on the lunar surface.109 In the intervening decades,lunar capsules have been relegated to museum halls.But thats about to change:Government agencies,with contributions from private companies,are planning ambitious

205、 missions to head back to the Moon.“The possibility of permanent and sustainable occupation and development on the Moonthat is the most exciting thing over the next decade,”says Greg Autry,an American space policy expert and author.110To start,space agencies are ramping up robotic exploration.More t

206、han a dozen countries are eyeing the Moon as a near-term destination,with many others planning missions by 2030.111 Most aim to land robotic rovers,joining a landed rover from China that is already exploring the lunar surface.112But space agencies plans are more ambitious than just robotic explorati

207、on.The goal of the Artemis programled by NASA in partnership with CSA,ESA,and JAXAis to build a space station that orbits the Moon and provides support for missions to the Moons surface as well as to points farther out in space,such as Mars.Known as the Gateway,the space station could even support l

208、ong-term settlements on the Moon.113 There are many reasons to shoot for the Moon.Though it may look barren and desolate,the Moon holds significant deposits of valuable resources(see section“A new gold rush”).“If we want to see humans on Mars,if we want to do all the things that are intrinsically hu

209、man and explore further,we need to go to the Moon,”says Sarah Cruddas,space journalist and author.“The Moon is only three days away from Earth,so if something goes wrong you can get back quickly.But it is there that we can learn how to survive on a world that isnt our own.”114 Landing or sustaining

210、a human presence on the Moon presents many environmental challenges,such as high levels of solar radiation from the lack of a protective atmosphere and magnetosphere.115 But many of the challenges stem from how we become self-sufficient in space and how different nations and companies cooperate.Self

211、-sufficiency includes a variety of activities from producing food to creating sustainable energy sources.A wide range of organizations are seeking to tackle these and adjacent problems.For instance,scientists working with the ISS National Lab genetically modified tomato seeds so they could more easi

212、ly be grown aboard the ISS(and,in turn,on a Moon base),116 while Rolls-Royce recently announced plans to build a nuclear reactor intended to power a future Moon base by 2029.117Becoming self-reliant in space is one challenge,and cooperation across spacefaring nations may be another.For example,with

213、so many countries planning Moon missions,competition for the best locations on the lunar surface could be fierce.34OUT THERE IN DEEP SPACEEVERYWHERERegulation While the comprehensive lunar governance proposed in the Artemis Accords and Moon Treaty(1979)have yet to gain broad support,more targeted re

214、gulations that protect the lunar environment from destruction and debris will be critical.118 These policies would ensure that countries represented by the 10 space agencies currently planning lunar missions“avoid harmful contamination”as mandated by the Outer Space Treaty(1967)and preserve equitabl

215、e access to settlement sites,research stations,and other lunar resources for countries that are not yet spacefaring.119The challenges of establishing a sustained presence on the Moon will range from the massive to the miniscule,and sometimes it will even be both:For example,lunar dust can be a serio

216、us problem for astronauts on the Moon as it can clog machinery,tear away at spacesuits,and have detrimental effects if inhaled.120 If we are to create long-term habitations on the Moon or Mars one day,mitigating dustamong many other challengeswill be critical to our success.121A lunar settlement cou

217、ld become for astronauts what the ISS is today:a center for research and experimentation.It could also host other boundary-pushing activities and serve as a staging ground for trips to Mars or beyond.But theres value to a lunar base beyond those activities:Settlement would likely inspire future gene

218、rations of space pioneers in ways that are hard to predict.And as for the innovations that could accrue from such a mission,the sky is no longer the limit.A NEW GOLD RUSHA universe of valuable resources is ripe for extractionWhether its the Moon or more distant asteroids,celestial bodies are often c

219、omposed of materials that could aid in our exploration of space.122“We now understand how the tremendous wealth of natural resources that exist on the Moon,near-Earth objects,and asteroids just beyond the reach of the Moon could completely change the destiny of the human race,”says Tory Bruno,CEO of

220、 United Launch Alliance,which manufactures and operates rockets.123The Moon holds many resources that could be harnessed to improve life up in space or down here on Earth.From water ice at the dark lunar poles to water molecules embedded in lunar soil on sunlit regions,the presence of H20 could sust

221、ain longer missions as a source of drinking water or be converted to fuel,eliminating the need to transport a full missions worth 35OUT THERE IN DEEP SPACEof replenishments from Earth.124 The Moon also contains helium-3,a rare-to-Earth isotope that has the potential to one day power safe,clean nucle

222、ar fusion reactors,125 as well as rare earth elements(REEs)that could be important to the ongoing electrification of earths transportation systems.126 Resource extraction on the Moon isnt just theoreticalsuccessful experiments have proven the concept.Chinas Change 5 mission has already retrieved roc

223、k samples containing helium-3 from the Moons surface and returned them to Earth.127 NASA,in turn,is working to devise a business model for the extraction,sale,and use of space resources.128 As part of this effort to spur commercial activity,the agency recently awarded contracts to four private compa

224、nies to collect samples of lunar regolithrocky soil that covers the surface of the Moonto be used as part of the Artemis program.129Although the Moons resources are valuable,asteroid mining tends to grab the headlines.Many asteroids hold significant deposits of REEs and other elements that would be

225、useful for expanding human presence in space.And the concept has proved plausible:Both JAXA and NASA have successfully used landers to collect material from asteroids in deep space,albeit less than a kilogram of material.130Still,asteroid mining at scale remains many years away from commercial viabi

226、lity.A few companies have tried without success due to a number of challenges yet to be addressed,such as the cost of launching equipment to the far reaches of the solar system where asteroids are typically found,and the ability to reliably identify the composition of asteroids.EVERYWHERERegulation

227、The United States is encouraging private space mining investors with business-friendly regulations,such as the 2015 Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act,which gives US companies the right to commercially explore and recover space resources.131 These policies are aligned with international law

228、s:Existing treaties prevent states from claiming ownership over land in space but do not explicitly forbid them from keeping the resources that they extract there.13236OUT THERE IN DEEP SPACEMETALS:From silicon for solar panels to cobalt for batteries,metals in space will help humans forge new tools

229、 for new worlds REGOLITH:Soil on the Moon and Mars could form the foundation for construction and agriculture no transport necessaryWATER:Ice on the Lunar and Martian poles will do more than help keep astronauts alive:the hydrogen and oxygen from H2O can create rocket fuel when separated RARE EARTH

230、ELEMENTS:Critical to high-tech supply chains,REEs in space could help refill our finite supply on Earth RESOURCES IN SPACEFrom energy to rare earth elements,space could sustain life off-planet while replenishing valuable resources on Earth Source:Deloitte analysis.Source:Deloitte analysis.THE RED PL

231、ANETHuman exploration of Mars is on the horizonThe Red Planet has always inspired peoples imaginations.Ancient civilizations from the Babylonians to the Romans named it after their gods of war because they associated its red appearance with blood.133 The Greeks reviled it for this connotation,while

232、the Romans revered it.134 Today,though,we know its neither the bringer of war that the Greeks feared nor the protector that the Romans celebratedit is one of the next stops in human exploration.While there may be no warring deities waiting for us on Mars,theres still plenty to be wary offor starters

233、,getting there.A trip to Mars will likely take at least seven months,135 and during that time,astronauts will be subjected to cramped spaces,weightlessness in microgravity,and radiation.Humans will need to meet basic safety and physiological needs,and self-sufficiency will likely be a challenge.“Wha

234、t are you going to eat?What are you going to drink?What are you going to wear?How are you going to live?”asks Rod Pyle,editor-in-chief of Ad Astra.“Basically,anything that coddles people in some way could be a huge opportunity.”13637OUT THERE IN DEEP SPACEDespite these challenges,credible efforts ar

235、e underway to land people on the Red Planet.There are many reasons why humans may want to explore Mars.For one thing,pushing the bounds of whats possible and raising the bar for future generations is part of our human DNAexpanding human presence to Mars is no exception.Mars is the second closest pla

236、net to Earth,but the most hospitable relative to our other planetary neighbors,so a Mars settlement could also serve as a useful waypoint for long missions to deep space,providing astronauts a place to refuel and relax before heading back out to explore other planets or mine asteroids.At a more dist

237、ant point,a Mars settlement could be a hedge against extinction events on Earth,increasing the odds that our species wont join the 99.9%of all organisms that have previously gone extinct on our home planet.137 Theres still a host of technologies that need to be developed before a Mars mission become

238、s reality.For example,NASA deployed an instrument on the Perseverance rover called the Mars Oxygen In Situ Resource Utilization Experiment,or MOXIE.The goal is developing technology that can create oxygen from the Martian atmosphere and enable a completely self-supporting space settlement.MOXIE has

239、already demonstrated the ability to pull small amounts of oxygen from the atmosphere,but the technology will need to scale to provide mission support.138 Many of NASAs goals for the Artemis lunar program are intended to develop and prove technologies that will eventually support missions to Mars,wit

240、h examples including robotic mining equipment and advanced power storage gear.139 Lunar missions will also test habitation and living conditions,which help prove the feasibility of landing people on Mars.140 There are many challenges to be solved before humankind can take its first steps on Mars,but

241、 pioneering organizations see these challenges as opportunities to overcome orthodoxies and push our species further into the future.38OUT THERE IN DEEP SPACE EVERYWHEREEthics As humankind ventures further into space,its impterative we implement planetary protection procedures for all missions so as

242、 not to cross-contaminate organic matter between solar system bodies.Planetary protection refers to the control and prevention of both“forward contamination”(i.e.,terrestrial organisms from Earth making their way to another celestial body)and“backward contamination”(i.e.,extraterrestrial life making

243、 its way back to Earth).Regulating the former is imperative to making sure that,if we do discover life outside of Earth,we remove doubts that the discovered life came from contamination.141FINAL THOUGHTSEven as humans venture further into the “final frontier,”uncertainties remain.The technologies ne

244、cessary for building and sustaining a presence beyond Earth are in their infancy,and the rules that would govern off-Earth peoples are embryonic.There are many difficult challenges yet to be overcomebut overcoming challenges is one of humanitys strong suits.Surely,settling Mars would have some pract

245、ical and immediate benefits.But even more so,it would serve as a symbolic victory,marking homo sapiens arrival as an interplanetary species and heralding the fulfillment of the new space age.It would also signal a new beginningbecause once weve settled Mars,the inevitable question is,“whats next?”CO

246、NCLUSION39CONCLUSIONTHE SPACES BETWEENThe space economy has reached an inflection point in terms of both access and opportunity.This new space age offers a launch window for pioneering companies of all sizes,and in all sectors,to establish sustainable competitive advantages by reimagining themselves

247、,for the first time,as space companiesnot as a radical pivot,but as an intentional extension of their core business models.That said,SpaceTech is just one of many exponential technology domains that stand to significantly impact the way we work and live in the next 30 years.Other xTechs,such as BioT

248、ech,RobotTech,and EnergyTech,just to name a few,will have similarly profound trajectories.We anticipate that many of tomorrows most lucrative investment opportunities will lie at the intersections of these technology categories.Leaders willing and able to capitalize on the“spaces between”these domai

249、ns wont just be market-takers,but market-makersnot just betting on the future,but building it.As mentioned earlier,we humans are uniquely evolved for life here on Earth but arent biologically equipped to survive off-planet.Enter synthetic biology,which offers us the rarified opportunity to engineer

250、in vivo just as we do in silico.Whether through developing lab-grown food to provide self-sufficiency on ever-longer space missions,or utilizing CRISPR gene editing to manufacture an“evolutionary step change”in our human capacity to survive in space,the future of human space travel and biotech is in

251、extricably linked.And whats a space story without robots?From probes to landers,robots have dutifully served as the intrepid first explorers of space,prepping the most perilous paths so that we humans might one day venture there ourselves.Just as physical robotics are used here on Earth to augment h

252、uman capabilities and complete work too hazardous for human hands,so,too,will they continue to be used in space.But how will we power this party?In a world of energy scarcity,space offers us untapped abundance.From space-based solar power(where satellite arrays collect solar power,convert it to micr

253、owaves,and transmit it to Earth-based ground stations that turn it into electricity)to helium-3 extraction for nuclear fusion reactors,the keys to unlocking a clean energy revolution on Earth could very well be hiding in the skies above.The upshot:Todays leading companies,be they in health care or h

254、ospitality,energy or entertainment,are just small steps away from making giant leaps into tomorrows space economy.And the day after that tomorrow,our successors will look back with admiration at those of us who raised our sightswho recognized that our organizations futures lay among the stars,and wh

255、o realized that,by galactic standards,even global enterprises would one day be considered“small businesses.”ACKNOWLEDGMENTS40ACKNOWLEDGMENTSOur insights can help you take advantage of emerging tech trends.If youre looking for fresh ideas to address your business challenges,lets talk.DELOITTE NExTDel

256、oittes Novel&Exponential Technologies(NExT)team senses,and makes sense of,emerging technologies that have potential for widespread business impact.With our pragmatic approach to futures research,we help our clients shape their strategic agendas and navigate to more informed,inspired,and intentional

257、tomorrows.To learn more,visit the NExT website.Mike BechtelChief futuristDeloitte Consulting LLPDELOITTE SPACESpace has always been a source of inspiration for humanity.Today,its become an enabler of innovation,and its potential is only expanding.To help accelerate the possibilities that reside over

258、head,enterprise leaders will need a well-rounded,globally connected organization with experience in the industry to collaborate with.To learn more,visit the Deloitte Space website.Brett LoubertSpace leaderDeloitte Consulting LLPACKNOWLEDGMENTS41EXECUTIVE EDITOR Mike BechtelChief futuristDeloitte Con

259、sulting LLPFM+BMAs chief futurist with Deloitte Consulting LLP,Mike Bechtel helps clients develop strategies to thrive in the face of discontinuity and disruption.His NExT team researches the novel and exponential technologies most likely to have an impact on the future of business,and builds relati

260、onships with the startups,incumbents,and academic institutions creating them.Prior to joining Deloitte,Bechtel led Ringleader Ventures,an early-stage venture capital firm he co-founded in 2013.Before Ringleader,he served as CTO of Start Early,a national not-for-profit focused on early childhood educ

261、ation for at-risk youth.Bechtel began his career in technology R&D at a global professional services firm where his dozen US patents helped result in him being named that firms global innovation director.He currently serves as adjunct professor of corporate innovation at the University of Notre Dame

262、.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS42SPECIAL THANKSRaquel Buscaino for leading our mission since inception.Your vision has inspired us all,and your knack for impactful execution amid ambiguity has been a revelation.Thank you for serving as“commander”of this crew and for ensuring our overall mission success.Kelly Rasko

263、vich for steering our team with unmatched grace and strength as NExT COO.This report,and the ones to follow,would not be possible without your guidance,expertise,and ability to lift up those you lead.Thank you for leading “all the things.”Stefanie Heng for challenging status quo and encouraging us t

264、o endeavor to reach new frontiers.Your wisdom and pioneering spirit not only kept us on track,but challenged our team to push the boundaries of whats possible.Caroline Brown for serving as editor of our inaugural xTech report,ensuring that we communicated our insights in a clear and compelling manne

265、r.Your eye for detail and skill in distilling the bigger picture is evident throughout the report.Lucas Erb for leading our research effort.Your willingness to take on new challenges,to think both creatively and deeply,and to rally the team around your vision is a gift.Ed Burns and Abhijith Ravinuta

266、la for turning an abundance of research into a focused beam of insights.Your ability to wrangle complex concepts into digestible proseand to wrestle with the ambiguity of taking a report from“0 to 1”is second to none.Sarah Mortier for spearheading the coordination of our many expert interviews,while

267、 providing a depth of research in your own right.Thank you for championing so many new processes that will make our next xTech report even more compelling.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS43Nathan Bergin,Angela Huang,Nkechi Nwokorie,and Bennie Seybold for your relentless pursuit of insights.Your research,individually

268、 and collectively,is the very foundation of this report.Thank you for exploring the unknown with passion and perseverance.Adrian Espinoza,Heather Mara,and Heidi Morrow for bringing the words on the page to life through your beautiful artwork,informative infographics,and multimedia experiences.Your p

269、roclivity for breathtaking and nuanced design brings unmatched energy and vitality to our work.Joe Little for challenging our team with“outside the jar”perspectives,and for supporting this effort from the very beginning.Thank you for bringing your depth of knowledge and pioneering spirit to our team

270、!Ben Hebbe,Mary Hughes,Deanna Gorecki,Mikaeli Robinson,Madelyn Scott,and Amelia Vierra for engendering exciting ways for us to communicate our research into the market.From communications to marketing and PR,thank you for helping us share our message with the world.Arthur Anglin,Shalini Bhatia,Lars

271、Cromley,Sarah Cruddas,Sarah Horn,Sam Kapreilian,Brett Loubert,and Adam Routh for your partnership and collaboration every step of the way.We hope this is just the beginning of our shared work together!Lorien Bandhauer,Sara Grove,Linda Guite,Alex Lockey,Prats Mathur,Emmett McGee,Kassi Pantvaidya,Benj

272、amin Shore,and Irene Weir for your early research and partnership in setting the foundation for the report.Looking forward to our continued collaboration!Beth Adams,Cara Buerger,Alexander Gottlieb,Jeanie Havens,Christian Kontis-Smith,Cullen Marriott,Inal Olmez,Jose Porras,Saee Rahul Shinde,Joey Suin

273、g,and the Green Dot Agency for your design and expertise in developing an inspiring and engaging digital and print experience.Bill Briggs for your faith in this team,support as our leader,and teamwork as a fellow pioneer and collaborator throughout this process.Thank you for challenging us to tackle

274、 the“Capital T”Technologies in our shared future.ENDNOTES441.Twitter,“When youre dealing with exponential growth,the time to act is when it feels too early,”tweet by Paul Graham,March 11,2020.2.Government Publishing Office(GPO),“A vision for NASA,”C.R.156,no.53,April 15,2010.3.Kenneth Chang,“SpaceX

275、successfully lands rocket after launch of satellites into orbit,”New York Times,December 21,2015.4.Citi GPS,Space:The dawn of a new age,May 2022.5.Interview with Maureen Haverty,VP at Seraphim Space,December 1,2022.6.Relativity Space homepage,accessed May 2023.7.Abl Space Systems homepage,accessed M

276、ay 2023.8.SpinLaunch homepage,accessed May 2023.9.Sierra Space,“Dream Chaser,”accessed May 2023.10.LEGO Education,“Build to Launch:A STEAM Exploration Series,”accessed May 2023.11.Thomas G.Roberts,“Spaceports of the World,”Center for Strategic&international Studies(CSIS)Aerospace Security Project,Ja

277、nuary 31,2023.12.Interview with Tom Vice,CEO of Sierra Space,January 11,2023.13.Roberts,“Spaceports of the World.”14.Federal Aviation Administration(FAA),Report on National Spaceports Policy,FAA Reauthorization Act of 2018(P.L.115-254),Section 580,accessed May 2023;Spaceport of the Future report.15.

278、Global Spaceport Alliance,Spaceports:Enabling the space economy,2019.16.Mike Wilkinson,“Michigan spent$2.5M to be a rocket hub.Critics say its produced only hype,”Bridge Michigan,September 14,2022;Mary Hennigan,“To infinity and beyond?Legislators file a bill about Arkansas space travel,”Arkansas Tim

279、es,February 24,2023.17.Simon Druker,“Sweden opens Mainland Europes first satellite launch spaceport,”UPI,January 13,2023.18.UK Government,“Spaceports,”accessed May 2023.19.Andrew Allen,“$1bn deal signed to build Africas first spaceport,”Supply Management,January 19,2023.20.Spaceport of the Future re

280、port21.J.A.Dallas et al.,“The environmental impact of emissions from space launches:A comprehensive review,”Journal of Cleaner Production 255,May 10,2020.22.Alex Brown,“Environmental concerns challenge states space ambitions,”Stateline,June 6,2022.23.SpaceX,“Starship,”accessed May 2023.24.National A

281、eronautics and Space Administration(NASA),“Low-Earth Orbit Economy,”accessed May 2023.25.Holli Riebeek,“Catalog of Earth satellite orbits,”NASA,September 4,2009.26.Seema Mody,“Why Deere thinks satellites are the next big technology to invest in,”CNBC,January 3,2023;Deloitte,The commercialization of

282、low Earth orbit,Vol.4:Bringing Earth to space,Fall 2022.27.Union of Concerned Scientists,“What are satellites used for?,”updated January 15,2015;Paul Tullis,“GPS is easy to hack,and the U.S.has no backup,”Scientific American,December 1,2019.28.JSR,“Number of active satellites from 1957 to 2022,”Stat

283、ista,January 17,2023;David Jarvis et al.,“Too congested before were connected?Broadband satellites will need to navigate a crowded sky,”Deloitte Insights,November 30,2022.29.SatCatalog,“CubeSat launch costs,”December 10,2022;NanoAvionics,“How much do CubeSats and SmallSats cost?,”January 2,2023.30.M

284、onitor Deloitte,The economics of space:Transforming life on earth,2020.31.Planet homepage,accessed May 2023;Spire homepage,accessed May 2023.32.Union of Concerned Scientists,UCS Satellite Database,last updated May 1,2022.33.Aria Alamalhodaei,“Starlink and T-Mobiles sat-to-cell service will start tes

285、ting this year,”TechCrunch,March 13,2023.34.Verizon,“5G+LEO:Verizon and Project Kuiper team up to develop connectivity solutions,”press release,October 26,2021.35.xTech Futures:SpaceTech is an independent publication and has not been authorized,sponsored,or otherwise approved by Apple Inc.36.Jason R

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287、ces,”accessed May 2023;World Economic Forum(WEF),“Crowding and competition in space,”Global Risks Report 2022,January 11,2022.39.Michael Sheetz and Leslie Josephs,“SpaceXs Starlink to provide Wi-Fi on Hawaiian Airlines flights with free service for passengers,”CNBC,April 25,2022;Kate Duffy,“Royal Ca

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289、,2022;Darrell Etherington,“Amazon reveals terminal designs for Project Kuiper satellite internet,”TechCrunch,March 14,2023.41.Monitor Deloitte,The economics of space:Transforming life on earth.42.Swarm homepage,accessed May 2023.43.Monitor Deloitte,The economics of space:Transforming life on earth.4

290、4.Office of the Secretary of Defense,Annual report to Congress:Military and security developments involving the Peoples Republic of China 2017,US Department of Defense,May 15,2017.45.Adam Routh et al.,“Navigating the space-industry inflection point,”Deloitte Insights,April 11,2023.46.FAA,“Satellite

291、navigation GPS how it works,”accessed May 2023.47.Ibid;Time and Navigation,“Who uses satellite navigation:Military applications,”Smithsonian,accessed May 2023.4548.ResearchAndM,“Global navigation satellite system global market report 2023:Intelligent highway&ITS favor adoption of GNSS,”press release

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295、March 29,2021.57.European Space Agency(ESA)Climate Office,“Modelling with climate data from space,”accessed May 2023.58.Deloitte,“Space capability:Positioning Australia at the forefront of the space sector,”August 2020.59.Ibid.60.ESA Space Solutions,“Surveillance and control of land borders from spa

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327、tection,”NASA,accessed May 2023.About this publicationThis publication contains general information only,and none of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited,its member firms,or its and their affiliates are,by means of this publication,rendering accounting,business,financial,investment,legal,tax,or other pr

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