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1、European Logistics OutlookEuropean Commercial March 2023SPOTLIGHTSavills Research Occupational Investment Outlook-2024681012Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Percent contribution to inflationFood and EnergyGoods and ServicesTotal-150-100-50050100150200Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-

2、21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-230=positive surpriseUnited StatesEuro AreaChinaSource:Savills Research using MacrobondA mixed economic outlookEuro area inflation appears to have peakedThe impact of rising interest rates and inflations strain on households became increasingly clear i

3、n the years final quarter.Investor confidence continued to falter in the last months of the year,leading to a not insubstantial decline in annual investment volumes into the sector and a significant decline compared to a record Q4 last year.In the occupier market,slowing consumer demand and rising c

4、osts began to hit occupiers,which led to a similar fall in leasing activity across Europe.Crucially,CPI data from December 2022 shows that inflation appears to have peaked and is now declining in the UK and euro area,as well as the US.In the euro area this fall has been led by a drop in energy price

5、s,which are now contributing a smaller proportion to inflation than they previously were.While interest rates will inevitably fall at a lag compared to the inflation rates that drove them,its worth noting that central banks have begun to strike a more dovish tone,suggesting we may be approaching a s

6、imilar peak in interest rates this year.While a downturn is still on the cards,many analysts expect it to be less pronounced than initially feared.Indeed,the Citi Economic Surprise Index for the Eurozone,which measures the difference between official economic results and forecasts,rebounded from a l

7、ow point in July 2022 and has since recorded significant outperformance by the bloc relative to expected results.The logistics sectors fortunes are deeply linked to those of the retail sector,of both the physical and online varieties.Based on long-term averages,retail occupiers in one form or anothe

8、r account for 60%of take-up in the logistics sector,so challenging market conditions online and on the high street will inevitably adversely affect the occupier market.In this respect,declining retail sales relative to the five-year average will certainly alarm many occupiers as consumers reduce spe

9、nding in the face of the cost-of-living crisis.Similarly,more logistics-heavy online sales have also declined significantly since the end of Covid-era restrictions,potentially reducing occupiers inventory needs.Crucially,CPI data from December 2022 shows that inflation appears to have peaked and is

10、now declining in the UK and Euro Area,as well as in the US.In the EU this fall has been led by a drop in energy prices,which are now contributing a smaller proportion to inflation than they were previously.Source:CitibankEuro area economic indicators are outperforming Logistics O Situation of Househ

11、oldUnemployment Expectations(inverted)Economic SituationSource:Oxford Economics-10-5051015Jan-08Nov-08Sep-09Jul-10May-11Mar-12Jan-13Nov-13Sep-14Jul-15May-16Mar-17Jan-18Nov-18Sep-19Jul-20May-21Mar-22Year on year,12 month moving averageEuro areaUnited KingdomUnited StatesRetail sales have started to f

12、all sharplyConsumer sentiment is being supported by positive employment expectationsSource:Savills Research using Macrobond Despite the cost-of-living crisis,the consumer economy has so far proven surprisingly resilient and is expected to recover this year.As we previously noted,Oxford Economics for

13、ecasts show flat consumer spending growth,a far cry from the negative growth seen in 2009 and 2012.One factor in this appears to be the relatively robust labour market.While the tech sector has seen several high-profile announcements of job cuts,the overall labour market has remained relatively robu

14、st,and,more importantly,household unemployment expectations remain positive.Indeed,while households have been quite dour about the overall economic situation,sentiment around their own financial situation has remained strong,which will provide support for consumption.The unique situation that Covid-

15、19,and the fiscal stimulus that followed it,creates a challenging paradigm for occupiers.As pandemic savings have unwound and spending has reverted towards long-term trends,occupiers who have built their occupational footprint around Covid-era trends may struggle more than those that took a more con

16、servative approach when trying to future-proof their businesses.European Logistics O ResearchEuropean take-up stabilises despite headwinds-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%YoY-Q4YoY-20225-year averageAnnual take-up remains well ahead of the five-year averageOccupational demand edges up in the final

17、quarter of the yearEuropean logistics take-up reached 8.3 m sq m in the final quarter of the year.Considering the economic context,this growth of 3%q/q was an outperformance of expectations.Certainly,there is a noticeable decline in take-up compared to the end of 2021 and the start of 2022.Indeed,de

18、spite the uncertainty in the market,take-up remains in line with the quarterly average over the last five years.The combination of this resilience and a record-breaking H1 saw year-end take-up total 37.5 m sq m in 2022,a total second only to 2021s series high of 40.2 m sq m.This equates to a fall of

19、 just 6%year-on-year in 2022.In annual terms,declines in take-up have been only mild and relatively even across the board with the exception of large year-on-year increases in smaller markets like Dublin,Madrid and Romania.This has left the composition of take-up by the market more or less in line w

20、ith 2021.Digging further into individual markets,most locations outperformed their five-year averages,even as they posted significant declines compared to Q4 2021s record quarter.Portugal(+94%),Romania(+62%)and Spain(+57%)saw the strongest results relative to their five-year average.France(-4%)was t

21、he only market to post a negative result on this metric.Despite this,many markets now look severely adversely impacted by economic headwinds in the context of their year-on-year growth,with Poland(-37%)and the UK(-47%)all seeing sharp year-on-year declines relative to Q4.That said it must be kept in

22、 mind that overall take-up in 2022 was 18%higher than the five year average.02468101217 Q217 Q418 Q218 Q419 Q219 Q420 Q220 Q421 Q221 Q422 Q222 Q4Take-up(sq m)MillionsUKSpainRomaniaPortugalPolandNetherlandsIrelandHungaryGermanyFranceCzech RepublicDenmarkB Logistics OutlookSource:SavillsRecord lows in

23、 vacancy continue to support rental growth0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%201720182019202020212022Czech RepublicDenmarkDublinNetherlandsMadridPolandUnited KingdomBarcelonaRomaniaOsloHelsinkiBudapestEuro averageStrong take-up in 2022 continued to put downward pressure on vacancy rates last year.The overall vacanc

24、y rate fell from 3.6%at the end of 2021 to 3.1%,its lowest point in the series.In the last four quarters,vacancy rates have tightened to 6.3%in Madrid(-300bps),4.0%in Romania(-250bps),and 2.3%in Norway in the final quarter of 2022.In Prague,the vacancy rate has remained below 1%for the last three co

25、nsecutive quarters,which anecdotally translates to almost no availability of suitable stock for occupiers.We are now seeing vacancy rates begin to rise in some markets,although crucially from record lows.The vacancy rate rose to 3.9%in the UK(+100bps),and 3.8%in Budapest (+60bps),and rebounded from

26、a series low in Dublin to 1.6%(+80bps).Vacancy rates may continue to trend upwards in 2023 as the e-commerce firms that propelled take-up to record heights adapt to lower online sales volumes and,in some cases,reduce their footprint.Competition for this limited stock has intensified among occupiers

27、as the vacancy rate has declined in recent years.This gave landlords the opportunity to command higher rents for their properties,particularly for modern stock which has been in critically short supply.Across Europe,prime rents grew by 11%in 2022.Annual growth in prime rents was highest in Prague(36

28、%)and le-de-France(32%)and Upper Silesia(+22%).Rental growth slowed to 2.0%y/y in Warsaw,Madrid,and Stockholm and was flat in Vienna and Budapest.As we have previously noted,slowing leasing activity will probably be offset by the historically low levels of available space,which are likely to continu

29、e to drive rental growth in the short term.With vacancy rates at such low levels at the start of the slowdown and no signs of an oversupply in the construction pipeline,there is room for an increase in occupiers handing back space due to a stronger-than-forecast downturn without leading to a sharp c

30、orrection in rents.As our research in the UK shows,transport costs account for a significantly higher share of logistics occupiers operating costs than rent.This suggests that well-located prime stock will remain in high demand,particularly among occupiers facing rising fuel costs,seeking to increas

31、e fuel efficiencies by reducing average journey distance.European vacancy rates fall to record lows0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Annual Growth-2021Annual Growth-2022Chronic shortage of stock continues to stoke rental Logistics O volumes drop from record highsThe logistics sector remained appealing to investor

32、s in 2022,with investment volumes into logistics assets reaching 54.5bn,a fall of 18%year-on-year.Similarly to the occupational market,it must be noted that 2021 was a record-breaking year,and therefore a decline in investment volume was always likely,even without the economic volatility we have see

33、n over the last 12 months.Although the record of 2021 is hard to surpass,the industrial sector continued to attract capital in 2022,with the total industrial volume sitting 24%above the 5-year average.This appetite for logistics is reflected by logistics increasing share of total investment.Our data

34、 shows that in 2017,the European logistics investment volume was approximately 13%of total European investment volumes,and this increased to approximately 19%in 2022.However,2022s final figure obscures a significant slowdown of the industrial investment volumes across Europe in the second half of th

35、e year,and specifically in the last quarter.The sector benefited from strong momentum in the first half of the year,with total investment volumes rising by 59%compared to the five-year average.Momentum slowed in the second half of the year as rising interest rates and the ensuing increase in financi

36、ng costs led to investors becoming more skittish in the second half of the year.Our data shows that 62%of the total investment volume in 2022 is related to deals that closed in the first half of the year and 38%in the second half of the year.In contrast,a typical H2 accounted for 57%of annual invest

37、ment volumes in the last five years.A closer investigation shows that the total industrial investment volume in the last quarter of the year totalled 8.6bn,which is flat quarter-on-quarter(-1%),but represents a fall of 69%compared to Q4 2021 and down by 42%on the 5-year(Q4)average.While investment i

38、n Q3 typically slows for seasonal reasons,Q4 accounted for 39%of annual volumes over the last five years.From this,we can see that investors started to put their foot on the brake in Q3 of 2022 and hit the brake hard by year-end.010203040506070201720182019202020212022BillionsUKSwedenSpainRomaniaPort

39、ugalPolandNorwayNetherlandsItalyIrelandHungaryGermanyFranceFinlandDenmarkCzech RepublicBelgiumEuropean investment volumes fall from record highs but remain elevatedYear-on-year comparisons against a record Q4 and year show sharp declines-100%-50%0%50%100%150%YoY-Q4YoY-20225 year Logistics OutlookSou

40、rce:Savills ResearchAlthough these declines in volumes in the last quarter of the year were seen across Europe,the countries with the biggest quarter-on-quarter declines were Ireland (-92%),France(-66%),Norway(-62%),and the UK(-48%).Only three markets:Sweden(+79%),the Netherlands(+56%),and Denmark(+

41、17%)saw industrial investment volumes increase quarter-on-quarter.Even these markets are down relative to the record Q4 total in 2021,year-on-year comparisons with Q4 show declines of-59%,-23%,and-78%respectively.Looking at who the biggest buyers and sellers were in the last quarter of the year,we s

42、ee,and perhaps unsurprisingly,the big investors(GIC,Blackstone,and ICG)that generally have more dry powder available to pick up assets against a discount further increasing their market share in the industrial sector.Whilst on the seller side,we saw a mixture of investors and developers disposing of

43、 some of their assets to ensure liquidity.The gap in expectations between sellers and buyers that we witnessed in the third quarter of 2022 widened further in Q4,resulting in a significant drop in deals closing.This,in turn,decreased the availability of transactional evidence,making it harder to dis

44、cern where pricing was at the close of the year and increasing the disparity between sellers and buyers pricing expectations.When faced with economic uncertainty and an increasingly opaque market,investors tend to shift their capital to core assets in their domestic markets,which they typically have

45、 a better understanding of and are perceived to be more resilient to market fluctuations.For some investors this may represent a safe haven until market conditions become favourable again for non-domestic and more value-add or opportunistic investment opportunities.The limited transactional evidence

46、 that came to light in Q4 2022 showed that prime industrial yields moved out further,with the European average reaching 4.69%in the last quarter of 2022,an increase of 40bps compared to Q3 2022 and nearly 70bps compared to a year earlier.The(core)Western European markets saw the greatest upward pres

47、sure on average prime yields.With the core Western European prime yields increasing to 4.11%and for the rest of Western Europe to 4.43%which are compared to previous quarter up by 36bps and 45bps respectively and compared to same period last year up by 75bps and 82bps respectively.The prime yields i

48、n the CEE and Southern Europe regions remained relatively stable only moving out by 10bps and 9bps to 5.86%and 5.45%respectively compared to last quarter and 11bps and 40bps year over year.Zooming in further,the markets with the largest yield movements quarter-on-quarter were London(+75bps),the Dutc

49、h markets of Amsterdam,Rotterdam,Schiphol and Venlo all+50bps,followed closely by the German markets of Berlin,Cologne,Dusseldorf and Hamburg all+40bps.There were no markets that showed yields moving inwards,and we only recorded yields stabilizing in Warsaw(5.20%),Madrid and Barcelona(4.75%)and Buch

50、arest(7.50%).On an annual basis,the movement in yields is much more significant,with the largest increases occurring in London(+175bps),Venlo(+110bps),Amsterdam,Rotterdam,Schiphol,Prague(all+100bps),followed by Warsaw(+95bps)and Berlin,Cologne,Dusseldorf,Hamburg and Munich(all+80bps).European logist

51、ics yields are rising7.50%5.00%5.00%5.00%4.75%4.70%4.60%4.50%4.50%4.50%4.50%4.50%4.47%4.35%4.35%4.25%4.20%4.10%4.00%3.90%3.90%3.90%3.90%3.70%3.70%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%Q4 2021Q4 Logistics O 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027Total Revenue($Bn)Sector Revenue(

52、$Bn)Total(RHS)Beauty,Health,Personal&HouseholdBeveragesElectronicsFashionFoodFurnitureMediaToys,Hobby&DIYSource:StatistaSource:Savills Research using RealfinTailwinds may be returningThe decline in investment in the latter half of the year is likely to continue into Q1 as buyers and sellers struggle

53、 to find common ground in terms of pricing.Anecdotally,our agents have seen some activity from new entrants to the market who are willing to pay sharper yields than incumbent players in the market.Certainly,sentiment among investors has improved in the first months of 2023,but it remains to be seen

54、when bigger players will start to take the plunge.There are promising signs,however.Investors were waiting to deploy in excess of$750 billion in dry powder globally at the end of 2022.This is an increase of 74%compared to 2019,and it is likely that a not-insubstantial share of this will flow into Eu

55、ropean real estate assets.Indeed,a survey by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum GPP found that 89%of respondents are planning to increase or maintain their allocations towards real estate in the next 12-24 months,the highest share of any asset class.Given the industrial sectors i

56、ncreasing share of total investment volumes in recent years,we would expect to see investors continue to buy into the logistics growth story.This is because the occupational market continues to benefit from tailwinds,both old and new.The occupational markets growth story has been characterised by th

57、e pandemic era boom in e-commerce,and while this trend has weakened in the last year,we still believe that e-commerce growth is an inevitable progression due to demographic trends,albeit at a slower rate than during the pandemic.Statista estimates that an additional 13.2 m shoppers will start using

58、e-commerce in Germany,the UK,France,Italy,and Spain by 2025,having grown by 47 m since 2017.One driver of this is that as younger,more tech-savvy generations enter the labour force and generate their own disposable incomes,their medium of choice will,on average,tend more towards online shopping than

59、 previous generations.Over the next five years,forecasts also suggest strong growth in online sales in the food sector.This will likely be a boon for logistics demand at the expense of traditional retail.Global funds raised e-Commerce forecasts show continued Logistics OutlookAnother trend that will

60、 drive occupier demand is the shift away from long,complicated global supply chains and an increase in on-shoring and near-shoring.In the near term,supply chain disruption has seen many occupiers expand their footprint to accommodate a shift from just-in-time to just-in-case inventory strategies,wit

61、h our own research pointing to increasing inventory sizes as a major challenge amongst occupiers in 2022.In the longer term,we would expect to see greater take-up in the manufacturing and automotive sectors.The UK shows one potential example of this trend,with manufacturing accounting for its highes

62、t-ever share of take-up last year.We would already note a significant increase in the import of intermediate goods,which will undergo additional manufacturing before reaching consumers in Europe.Monthly imports of intermediate goods increased by 17%y/y in October 2022 and by 40%compared to the same

63、period in 2019.Indeed,total imports of intermediate goods in the first 10 months of 2022 were 62%higher than the ten-year average.That said,both inventory accumulation and intermediate goods imports are highly pro-cyclical,so theres potential for significant amounts of noise in this data.Finally,glo

64、bal shortages in semiconductors have led to concerns about supply chain security.This industry is heavily concentrated in Taiwan,which is subject to increasing geopolitical risk.Onshoring in this industry may prove to be a boon to Europes industrial and logistics sector,which would drive an increase

65、 in demand to accommodate not only this industry but also the support services that will spring up around these businesses as a result.-1.00%-0.50%0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%1996-Q31997-Q31998-Q31999-Q32000-Q32001-Q32002-Q32003-Q32004-Q32005-Q32006-Q32007-Q32008-Q32009-Q32010-Q32011-Q32012-Q32013

66、-Q32014-Q32015-Q32016-Q32017-Q32018-Q32019-Q32020-Q32021-Q32022-Q3Share of GDP050,000100,000150,000200,000250,0002002-102003-102004-102005-102006-102007-102008-102009-102010-102011-102012-102013-102014-102015-102016-102017-102018-102019-102020-102021-102022-10(Millions)Source:EurostatSource:Eurostat

67、Inventories are growing at a record rateImports of intermediate goods could suggest an uptick in key considerations1.Europes economy is holding up better than expected:European GDP results have,in aggregate,outperformed previous GDP forecasts.This has led to a number of upward revisions to GDP forec

68、asts in recent months.While retail sales volumes have fallen in recent months,consumer sentiment has held up relatively well,sup-ported by high confidence in employment prospects.2.Annual comparisons in the occupational and investment market are misleading:A decline in leasing and investment volumes

69、 was always likely after the new records set in Q4 2021 and 2021 as a whole.Indeed,take-up in Q4 2022 actually rose quarter-on-quarter,outperforming expectations.Notably,both take-up and investment volumes were well ahead of the five-year average in 2022.3.Pricing expectation disparities continue to

70、 hamper deals:While yields have risen in the majority of markets sellers expectations have been slower to rise than those of buyers.Many potential vendors have chosen to take assets off the market and wait for market conditions to improve.Simultaneously,more seasoned players in the market have maint

71、ained the wait-and-see approach they opted for in Q3.4.e-Commerce is set to return to growth in 2023:Much like the occupier and investment markets e-Commerce in 2022 declined relative to the record year seen in 2021.This was to be expected as society reopened many consumers opted to return to physic

72、al retail.e-Commerce growth is forecast to return this year albeit at a slower rate than that seen in the pandemic era.5.Inventory and import growth may drive occupier demand:Signs of onshoring and increasing inventories are often hard to differentiate from the overall business cycle.Whille both Inv

73、entory accumulation and intermediate good imports are highly pro-cyclical they have seen sharp growth in recent months.This may provide some evidence of these trends.Kevin MofidHead of European Logistics Research+44(0)207 499 ResearchSavills plc:Savills plc is a global real estate services provider

74、listed on the London Stock Exchange.We have an international network of more than 600 offices and associates throughout the Americas,the UK,continental Europe,Asia Pacific,Africa and the Middle East,offering a broad range of specialist advisory,management and transactional services to clients all ov

75、er the world.This report is for general informative purposes only.It may not be published,reproduced or quoted in part or in whole,nor may it be used as a basis for any contract,prospectus,agreement or other document without prior consent.While every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy,Savil

76、ls accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use.The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research.Savills Commercial ResearchWe provide bespoke services

77、 for landowners,developers,occupiers and investors across the lifecycle of residential,commercial or mixed-use projects.We add value by providing our clients with research-backed advice and consultancy through our market-leading global research team.Marcus De MinckwitzHead of EMEA Industrial and Logistics+44(0)207 409 8755MdeMInvestment and AgencyAndrew BlennerhassettEuropean Logistics Research Associate+44(0)7977 149 ResearchBram de RijkEuropean Research Associate+44(0)7816 252 Research