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1、Medium-Term Gas Report 2023Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its wor

2、k,the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimi

3、tation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.org IEA member countries:Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Kor

4、ea LithuaniaLuxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of TrkiyeUnited Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:ArgentinaBrazilCh

5、inaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraineMedium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|1 Abstract IEA.CC BY 4.0.Abstract The energy crisis triggered by Russias invasion of Ukraine marked a turning point for global natural gas markets.Gro

6、wth in global gas demand is set to slow down significantly over the medium term(2022-2026).This follows a decade of strong expansion in which gas contributed around 40%of the growth in primary energy supply worldwide.While market tensions eased in the first three quarters of 2023,gas supplies remain

7、 relatively tight and prices continue to experience strong volatility,reflecting a fragile balance in global gas markets.High storage levels in the European Union allow for cautious optimism ahead of the 2023-24 heating season.However,a range of risk factors could easily renew market tensions.Northw

8、est Europe will have no access this winter to two sources that used to be the backbone of its gas supply:Russian piped gas and the Groningen field in the Netherlands.The gas supply shock of 2022 reinforced the structural trends that are weighing on the longer-term prospects for global gas demand.Ove

9、rall gas consumption across the mature markets of Asia Pacific,Europe and North America peaked in 2021 and is set to decline over the medium term as a result of the rapid deployment of renewables and improved energy efficiency standards.Demand growth is almost entirely concentrated in fast-growing A

10、sian markets and gas-rich countries in Africa and the Middle East.Strong LNG supply at the end of the forecast period is set to ease market fundamentals and unlock price sensitive demand in emerging markets in Asia.The International Energy Agencys(IEA)Gas 2023 Medium-Term Market Report provides an o

11、utlook on the development of global gas demand and supply until 2026.This years report includes a special spotlight on Africa and the potential for gas to contribute to regional economic growth and improved energy access.Beyond the medium-term outlook,the report provides a thorough review of recent

12、market developments ahead of the 2023-24 winter season in the Northern Hemisphere.As part of the IEAs Low-Emission Gases Work Programme,this years report includes a section on the medium-term outlook for biomethane,low-emissions hydrogen and e-methane.In addition,a special focus is provided on the d

13、evelopments in emerging markets.Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|2 Table of contents IEA.CC BY 4.0.Table of contents Executive summary and key assumptions.3 Gas market update.15 Medium-term market outlook.37 Spotlight on Africa.75 Medium-term outlook for low-e

14、mission gases.87 Annex.104 Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|3 Executive summary and key assumptions IEA.CC BY 4.0.Executive summary and key assumptions Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|4 Executive summary and key assumpt

15、ions IEA.CC BY 4.0.Beyond the Golden Age of Gas:Slower growth,higher volatility and greater uncertaintyThe period between 2011 and 2021 marked the Golden Decade of Gas:During this period,natural gas consumption worldwide expanded by close to 25%and accounted for 40%of the growth in primary energy su

16、pply worldwide more than any other fuel.This rapid growth was underpinned by a number of factors including the availability of relatively cheap and cost-competitive gas supply,clean air policies in the fast growing markets of the Asia Pacific region,and the scaling up of shale production in the Unit

17、ed States.The energy crisis triggered by Russias invasion of Ukraine marked a turning point for global gas markets.While markets moved towards a gradual rebalancing in the first three quarters(Q1-3)of 2023,structurally higher gas prices pave the way for a slower and more uncertain demand trajectory,

18、with growth almost entirely concentrated in Asia and the gas-rich markets of Africa and the Middle East.A strong increase in liquefied natural gas(LNG)production capacity towards the end of our forecast horizon is expected to loosen market fundamentals and ease gas supply security concerns in the se

19、cond half of the decade.Despite the gradual rebalancing of gas markets,risks and uncertainties weigh on the outlook for the 2023-24 winter.The steep demand reductions in European and mature Asian markets in 2023 have eased market fundamentals and put downward pressure on prices.In the first three qu

20、arters of the year,European hub and Asian spot LNG prices averaged 70%and 60%below their 2022 levels,respectively.However,they have remained well above their historical averages.The supply side remained tight in the first three quarters of 2023,as the additional LNG supply(+11 bcm)was insufficient t

21、o offset the steep decline in Russian piped gas deliveries to the European Union(-38 bcm).In this context,markets remained sensitive and continued to display strong price volatility.In August 2023,volatility on the European benchmark(TTF month-ahead contract)reached its highest level since Russias i

22、nvasion of Ukraine,as strike risks in Australia and unplanned outages in Norway weighed on the near-term gas supply outlook.In the European Union,storage sites opened the 2023-24 heating season at 96%of full capacity and 10 bcm above their five-year average.Nevertheless,full storage sites are no gua

23、rantee against winter volatility.As highlighted in the Global Gas Security Review 2023,a cold winter together with lower LNG availability and a further decline in Russian piped gas deliveries could renew market tensions,especially towards the end of the 2023-24 winter.The risks associated with this

24、near term outlook are reflected in the summer-winter spread,which averaged USD 5/MBtu on TTF in Q2-Q3 2023.Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|5 Executive summary and key assumptions IEA.CC BY 4.0.European gas prices remained highly volatile in Q3 2023 amid tight

25、 supply conditions IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA analysis based on Bloomberg(2023).0%50%100%150%200%250%Jan-16Mar-16May-16Jul-16Sep-16Nov-16Jan-17Mar-17May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19May-19Jul-19Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Ju

26、l-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Historical volatilityHistorical monthly price volatility on the TTF month-ahead contract(annualised),2016-2023 Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|6 Executive summary and key assump

27、tions IEA.CC BY 4.0.Gas markets are set for slower growth over the medium-term,following a peak in gas demand in mature markets in 2021 The supply shock triggered by Russia cast a long shadow over gas markets.Higher gas prices are reducing its competitiveness vis-vis other fuels,while Russias steep

28、supply cuts and the lack of LNG availability in South Asian markets damaged the image of natural gas as a“reliable”fuel.Gas demand growth is projected to slow by almost a third,from an average rate of 2.5%per year during 2017-2021 to 1.6%in the 2022-2026 period.Natural gas consumption is expected to

29、 remain broadly flat in 2023 as demand gains in Asia Pacific and the Middle East are almost entirely offset by the drops in demand in Europe,Central America and South America.Global gas demand is expected to return to moderate growth in 2024,primarily driven by Asia Pacific and the Middle East.Deman

30、d growth is expected to be more robust in 2025-26,supported by higher LNG liquefaction capacity additions than the historical average.The combined gas consumption of mature markets in Asia Pacific1,Europe and North America peaked in 2021 and is expected to decline at a rate of 1%per year between 202

31、2 and 2026.In Europe,the gas crisis reinforced the structural drivers accelerating the decline in gas demand over the medium term.An accelerated deployment of renewables,higher energy efficiency 1 Australia,Japan,Korea,New Zealand and Singapore.standards and growing electrification in areas such as

32、space heating are set to weigh on gas consumption.In mature Asia Pacific markets,improving nuclear availability together with the continued expansion of renewables is expected to reduce the call on gas-fired power plants and drive down overall gas demand.In North America,higher output from renewable

33、 energy is forecast to reduce gas usage in power generation,while improved energy efficiency standards and a gradual electrification of heating are set to shrink the role of gas in residential and commercial sectors.Faster-growing Asia Pacific markets and gas-rich countries in Africa and the Middle

34、East are set to drive growth in gas demand.China alone accounts for almost half of the increase in global gas demand over the forecast period,with the power sector,industrial production and city gas networks the major consumers.Strong LNG supply at the end of the forecast period is set to ease marke

35、t fundamentals and unlock some price sensitive demand in developing Asian markets that have the infrastructure in place.In the Middle East,production growth in Iran,Israel and Saudi Arabia is expected to support the expansion of gas-intensive industries and higher gas burn in the power sector.Africa

36、s gas demand growth is driven by its rapidly rising population,improving energy access and economic growth.Eurasian natural gas demand trends towards stagnation,with the regions gas demand standing 2%above its 2021 level by 2026.Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAG

37、E|7 Executive summary and key assumptions IEA.CC BY 4.0.The strong increase in LNG supply in 2026 is expected to ease market fundamentals IEA.CC BY 4.0.-100-80-60-40-200 20 40 60 80 10020222023202420252026Y-o-y change in bcmRussian piped gas to EuropeOther pipeline imports to EuropeRussian piped gas

38、 to ChinaCentral Asia to ChinaGlobal LNG supplyTotal y-o-y changeForecastYear-on-year change in key piped natural gas trade and global LNG supply,2022 2026 Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|8 Executive summary and key assumptions IEA.CC BY 4.0.Natural gas deman

39、d peaked in mature markets in 2021,with growth prospects increasingly concentrated in the Asia Pacific region and the Middle East IEA.CC BY 4.0.3500360037003800390040004100420043004400Asia Pacific-maturemarketsEuropeNorthAmericaMiddle EastAfricaEurasiaCentral andSouthAmericaChinaOther Asianmarkets20

40、22Mature marketsGas rich marketsFast growing Asianmarkets2026bcmForecasted change in natural gas demand by key regions,2022 2026 Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|9 Executive summary and key assumptions IEA.CC BY 4.0.LNG supply growth is expected to drive an in

41、creasingly interconnected and globalised gas market Global LNG supply is expected to expand by 25%(or 130 bcm a year)between 2022 and 2026,with 70%of the supply increase concentrated in 2025-26.In this context,LNG export projects will be a key driver of upstream developments,as supply requirements f

42、or LNG feedgas account for around 55%of the net increase in global gas output in the forecast period.The United States alone is set to contribute for around half of incremental LNG supply,reinforcing its position as the worlds largest LNG exporter.Consequently,the share of the United States in globa

43、l LNG supply is set to increase from 20%in 2022 to over 25%by 2026.Considering the contractual terms underpinning US LNG supply(hub-indexed pricing mechanisms and destination-free shipping arrangements),the liquidity and the flexibility of global LNG trade is set to increase over the medium-term.Liq

44、uidity in the LNG market will allow for a more effective response to short-term supply and/or demand shocks,resulting in a more resilent global gas market.Regional markets are set to become increasingly interdepedent.Liquidity in the LNG market can ease market tensions in regions facing tight supply

45、-demand fundamentals.However,this also means that events that induce price volatility in one region could impact price fluctuations and supply-demand dynamics in geographically distant markets.An increasingly globalised market will reinforce the need for enhanced dialogue between producers and consu

46、mers on security of supply issues.The IEAs Task Force on Gas and Clean Fuels Market Monitoring and Supply Security has provided such a platform since October 2022.Low-emissions gases are set to expand rapidly The supply of low-emissions gases is expected to more than double over the medium term,resu

47、lting in an increase of over 8 bcm in absolute terms.Europe and North America are set to drive this expansion and to contribute for 70%of the overall growth.The development of low-emissions gases in these markets benefits from a wide range of policies,increasingly sophisticated subsidy schemes and w

48、ell-developed,interconnected gas networks.Nevertheless,further efforts will be required to reach the ambitious targets set for biomethane and low-emissions hydrogen.Besides Europe and North America,a number of emerging low-emissions gas producers are expected to scale up their output.Biomethane prod

49、uction is expected to expand by over 65%(or 4.5 bcm)between 2022 and 2026,accounting for almost 55%of the total increase in low-emissions gases during this period.Low-emissions hydrogen is projected to grow at an average rate of close to 25%per year between 2022 and 2026,translating into almost 4 bc

50、m equivalent of additional supply by 2026.In contrast,e-methane struggles to take off over the forecast period,requiring a concentrated effort between emerging producers and consumers to establish viable supply chains and effective support mechanisms.Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Mar

51、ket Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|10 Executive summary and key assumptions IEA.CC BY 4.0.LNG feedgas supply requirements account for around 55%of the net increase in global gas output in the forecast period IEA.CC BY 4.0.Key drivers behind of natural production growth,2017 2021 Key drivers behind of natural p

52、roduction growth,2022 2026(forecast)Local consumptionLong-distance pipeline tradeLNG feedgas requirementsGas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|11 Executive summary and key assumptions IEA.CC BY 4.0.Key assumptions behind the medium-term forecastThe global energy crisis triggered by Russias invasion of Ukra

53、ine led to a profound reconfiguration of the global gas market.This medium-term forecast is subject to an unusually wide range of uncertainties stemming from the broader geopolitical and macroeconomic environment.Macroeconomic outlook:Towards slower growth Following a drop of 3.1%in 2020,global real

54、 GDP grew by 6.4%in 2021.This strong performance was partly supported by the recovery in commercial and industrial activity after the Covid-induced lockdowns,when governments and central banks launched major fiscal and monetary stimulus packages.Global GDP growth slowed to 3.3%in 2022 amid the unfol

55、ding global energy crisis,soaring commodity prices and rapidly rising consumer prices.In response to the inflationary pressures,central banks adopted tighter monetary policies by raising their interest rates.This in turn increased the cost of borrowing and is set to weigh on economic activity during

56、 2023 and 2024.Global GDP growth is set to fall below 3%in 2023 and to 2.6%in 2024 its lowest annual rate since the 2007-2008 global financial crisis,with the exception of the 2020 pandemic period.Improving economic performance and monetary easing is expected to translate into stronger GDP growth in

57、 the second half of the forecast period and average 3.4%between 2025 and 2026.Short-term indicators are confirming this general slowdown in economic growth.In the United States,the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)averaged 47 during Q1-Q3 2023,indicating a contraction in manufacturing act

58、ivity.Real GDP growth in the United States is expected to slow to an average of 1.5%per year between 2023 and 2026.In the Euro area,the Manufacturing PMI stood at 45 during Q1-Q3 2023 and dropped to 42.7 in July its lowest level in three years.Real GDP growth in the European Union is forecast to ave

59、rage 1.4%per year between 2023 and 2026.In China,manufacturing activity and consumption rebounded at the start of 2023 when authorities eased their strict lockdown policies.Nevertheless,weak export demand together with the ongoing real estate downturn is weighing on economic performance.Chinas Manuf

60、acturing PMI stood at 50 in Q1-Q3 2023 and the countrys GDP growth is expected to average just below 4.5%between 2023 and 2026 well below the 6.6%average growth rate experienced between 2016 and 2019.Natural gas prices are expected to remain above their historical averages This forecast relies on ex

61、ternal energy price assumptions based on the futures market prices observed at the end of September 2023.European hub and Asian spot LNG prices rose to all-time highs in 2022 amid the supply shock triggered by Russia.In Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|12 Executive summary and key assumptions IEA.CC B

62、Y 4.0.Europe,TTF spot prices stood at USD 37/MBtu in 2022,more than seven times their average between 2016 and 2020.In Asia,JKM prices followed a similar trajectory and averaged close to USD 34/MBtu.Gas markets have moved towards a gradual rebalancing since the start of 2023 due to timely policy act

63、ion,effectively working market forces and favourable weather conditions.Natural gas prices could strengthen again in 2024 amid tighter supplydemand fundamentals.Forward curves indicate that TTF and JKM prices are expected to increase by around 10%and oscillate in a range between USD 14-15/MBtu in 20

64、24.However,the start-up of new LNG liquefaction terminals and improving supply fundamentals are set to provide downward pressure on TTF and Asian spot LNG prices during the second half of the forecast period to average USD 13/MBtu in 2025 and 2026.This would still be more than double the average pri

65、ce levels seen between 2016 and 2020.Oil-indexed LNG prices are assumed to display a less volatile pattern over the forecast period and average USD 12/MBtu between 2023 and 2026 30%above their levels between 2016 and 2020.In the United States,Henry Hub prices rose to over USD 6/MBtu in 2022,their hi

66、ghest level since 2008.Forward curves indicate that Henry Hub prices are expected to hover at around USD 2.7/MBtu in 2023 and strenghten to an average close to USD 4/MBtu during 2024-2026 40%above the levels experienced between 2016 and 2020.Natural gas prices trending above their historical average

67、 are expected to weigh on natural gas demand growth over the medium term,especially in sectors where gas is facing stiff competition from other fuels,such as power generation and road transport.Russian piped gas flows to the European Union The future of Russian piped gas deliveries to the Europe Uni

68、on is a key uncertainty in our forecast.They more than halved in 2022,dropping from almost 140 bcm in 2021 to just above 60 bcm.Considering current flow profiles,Russian piped gas deliveries are set to decline by around 65%in 2023 to within a range of 20-25 bcm.Russias gas transit contract with Ukra

69、ine is set to expire at the end of 2024.Ukraines energy minister has ruled out the possibility of extending the contract,following Russias invasion of the country.Hence,this forecast assumes that only TurkStream string 2(15.75 bcm/yr)will supply Russian piped gas to the European Union starting from

70、2025.While short-term capacity booking options might continue to be available along the Ukrainian transit route for European importers of Russian piped gas,this upside potential is not included in our baseline forecast.Weather Natural gas consumption is particularly sensitive to the weather,notably

71、temperature;this forecast is based on the assumption of average winter conditions(typically based on rolling five-year averages)for the forthcoming heating seasons.Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|13 Executive summary and key assumptions IEA.CC BY 4.0.GDP growth,global and regional,2018-2026 Global GD

72、P growth is expected to slow over the forecast period IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA,IMF and Oxford Economics.Forecast-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%201820192020202120222023202420252026Y-o-y change(%)AfricaAsia PacificNorth AmericaEurasiaCentral and South AmericaMiddle EastEuropeWorldGas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAG

73、E|14 Executive summary and key assumptions IEA.CC BY 4.0.Forward curves suggest that natural gas prices will remain above their historical averages in the medium term IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Future prices are based on forward curves as of the end of September 2023 and do not represent a price forecast.So

74、urces:IEA analysis based on CME(2023),Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Quotes,Dutch TTF Natural Gas Month Futures Settlements,LNG Japan/Korea Marker(Platts)Futures Settlements;EIA(2023),Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price;Powernext(2023),Spot Market Data;S&P Global(2023),Platts Connect.2021/22 gas supply

75、shock010203040506070Jan-16Oct-16Jul-17Apr-18Jan-19Oct-19Jul-20Apr-21Jan-22Oct-22Jul-23Apr-24Jan-25Oct-25Jul-26USD/MBtuOil-indexed price rangeHenry HubTTFJKMHenry Hub-futuresTTF-futuresJKM-futuresCovid-induceddemand shockForward curves as at end of September 2023Limited new LNG capacityNew LNG waveNa

76、tural gas price assumptions across key regions,2016-2026 Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|15 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Gas market update Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|16 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Natural g

77、as demand returned to moderate growth in Q2-Q3 in Asia and North AmericaGlobal gas consumption contracted by an estimated 1.5%y-o-y(or 65 bcm)in 2022 comparable to demand drops seen in 2009 in the aftermath of the financial crisis,or during the global Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.First data indicate th

78、at this downward trend continued in Q1 2023,when gas consumption declined in all key markets due to the continued impact of high prices on gas use in the industrial and power sectors and unseasonably mild weather conditions.Natural gas demand returned to moderate growth in Q2-Q3 in North America and

79、 the rapidly growing markets of the Asia Pacific,while consumption continued to decline in Europe.OECD Europe recorded a drop of 9%(or 33 bcm)y-o-y in Q1-Q3 2023.This was primarily driven by lower residential and commercial demand in Q1 and a steep decline in gas burn in the power sector during Q2 a

80、nd Q3.The power sector emerged as the most important driver behind Europes gas demand reduction,accounting for over 55%of Europes total gas demand decline in Q1-Q3 2023.Preliminary data indicate that gas use in industry continued to decline during H1 2023,starting to recover in Q3 albeit remaining w

81、ell below its pre-crisis levels.Natural gas demand in the Asia Pacific region increased by an estimated 2.5%(or 12 bcm)in the first eight months of 2023,as the declines recorded in Q1 were more than offset by rising consumption during Q2-Q3.Demand growth is largely concentrated in China.Preliminary

82、data indicate that the countrys estimated gas consumption rose by around 7%y-o-y in Q1-Q3 2023,supported by the industrial and power sectors.The countrys LNG imports rose by close to 15%over the same period.In contrast,gas demand continued to decline in the regions mature gas markets(Japan and Korea

83、)amid depressed electricity consumption and improving nuclear availability.In North America,natural gas demand increased by a mere 1%(or 8 bcm)in Q1-Q3 2023.While residential and commercial demand declined amid an unseasonably mild Q1,gas use in the power sector continued to grow strongly on continu

84、ed coal-to-gas switching dynamics.In Central and South America natural gas demand dropped by 4%(or 3 bcm)in H1 2023 amid lower gas burn in the power sector.Global gas supply is set to remain tight in 2023,as incremental LNG supply(18 bcm)will not be sufficient to offset the expected drop in Russias

85、piped gas deliveries to the Europe Union(a decline of over 35 bcm).Considering the tight gas supply picture in 2023,global gas demand is expected to remain broadly flat in 2023.Most of the demand growth is projected to be driven by the Asia Pacific region and the Middle East;however,this growth is a

86、lmost entirely offset by the demand drops in Europe and Central and South America.This short-term forecast is subject to an unusually wide range of uncertainties,stemming from the broader geopolitical and macro-economic environment.Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023

87、PAGE|17 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.while European gas consumption remains depressed IEA.CC BY 4.0.*China,India,Japan and Korea.-40-200 20 402022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q3Y-o-y change in bcmOECD EuropeAsia-selected markets*North AmericaY-o-y change in bcmQuarterly change in natural g

88、as demand in key regions,2022-2023 Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|18 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.North American gas demand growth is set to slow and peak in 2023 before declining in 2024Natural gas consumption in North America increased by an estimated 1

89、%(or 8 bcm)y-o-y in Q1-Q3 2023,primarily supported by higher gas burn in the power sector.In the United States,natural gas demand rose by an estimated 0.8%(or 5 bcm)in Q1-Q3 2023,with growth entirely driven by the power sector.Preliminary data indicate that gas-to-power demand expanded by 6%(or 16 b

90、cm)in Q1-Q3 amid lower hydro output and at the expense of coal-fired generation(down almost 20%y-o-y).Consequently,the share of natural gas in the power generation mix rose from 34%in January 2021 to more than 45%in August 2023 its highest monthly average on record.By the end of the year,a total of

91、16 gas-fired power plants are expected to come online,amounting to 8.4 GW of additional capacity.In contrast,natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sector contracted by more than 6%(or 10 bcm)y-o-y in Q1-Q3 2023 amid unseasonably mild weather in January-April.Natural gas demand in

92、 industry declined by 1%(or 2 bcm)y-o-y in Q1-Q3 2023 due to subdued economic activity.The US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)averaged 47 in Q1-3,indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity.Natural gas consumption in Canada increased by an estimated 2%(or 1.5 bcm)y-o-y in Q1-3 202

93、3.Natural gas demand in the power and industrial sectors grew by 5%y-o-y in H1 2023 due to coal-to-gas switching in the power sector.This increase was almost entirely offset by a 9%y-o-y decline in residential and commercial gas demand.Mexicos estimated natural gas consumption increased by 2%(or 1 b

94、cm)y-o-y in the first eight months of 2023.In this forecast,North American growth in natural gas demand is expected to experience a slowdown and to peak in 2023 with growth close to 1%,followed by a decline in 2024 triggered by the contraction of gas demand for power generation in the United States.

95、Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|19 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.US gas consumption increased by 0.8%y-o-y in Q1-Q3 2023 Sources:IEA analysis based on EIA(2023),Natural Gas Consumption;Natural Gas Weekly Update.-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%-20-15-10-50 5 10 15 202

96、021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q3Y-o-y change in%Y-o-y change in bcmResidential and commercialPowerIndustryOthersY-o-y changeEstimated quarterly change in gas demand,United States,2021-2023 Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|20 Ga

97、s market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Lower gas burn in the power sector continued to weigh on natural gas demand in Central and South AmericaFollowing a 3%decline in 2022,natural gas consumption remained depressed in Central and South America in H1 2023.First estimates indicate that the regions gas demand

98、fell by 4%(or 3 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2023 amid lower gas burn in the power sector.In Argentina,the regions largest gas market,gas demand fell by 2%(or 0.5 bcm)y-o-y in the first seven months 2023 according to preliminary data.This decline was almost entirely driven the residential and commercial sectors,

99、where gas use dropped by over 12%(or 0.9 bcm)y-o-y amid milder weather conditions.In contrast,gas demand in industry grew by 5%y-o-y,while gas burn in the power sector increased by close to 2%y-o-y.In Brazil,gas consumption continued to decline steeply and dropped by over 10%(or 2.2 bcm)y-o-y in the

100、 first eight months of 2023,primarily driven by lower gas burn in the power sector.This decreased by 30%(or 5 TWh)y-o-y in the first eight months of 2023.The decline was almost entirely concentrated in Q1 2023,when gas-to-power demand plummeted by close to 60%y-o-y amid higher hydro availability.Gas

101、-fired generation returned to growth in Q2 amid lower hydro output.Gas burn in the power sector increased by 10%(or 0.7 TWh)y-o-y during the April-August period.As a consequence of lower gas demand,Brazil reduced its piped gas imports from Bolivia by 15%(or 0.2 bcm)y-o-y,while its LNG inflows droppe

102、d by 80%(or 2 bcm)y-o-y in the first half of 2023.Several other countries in the region experienced similar declines.In Trinidad and Tobago natural gas production remained broadly flat in H1 2023 compared with the same period in 2022.The countrys LNG exports rose by close to 10%y-o-y,suggesting that

103、 domestic gas consumption declined by over 5%(or 0.4 bcm)y-o-y during H1 2023.In Venezuela observed gas consumption decreased by 7%(or 0.6 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2023.In Colombia gas demand declined by 3%(or 0.22 bcm)y-o-y in the first eight months of 2023,primarily driven by lower gas burn in the power se

104、ctor(down by 17%y-o-y).Gas demand in industry declined by 5%y-o-y,largely offset by higher gas use in refining(up by 10%).Gas consumption in the residential and commercial sectors increased by 2%y-o-y.The regions smaller markets displayed varied demand patterns over the first eight months 2023,not s

105、ufficient to offset the declines recorded in the five largest gas markets.Taking into account the declines in H1 and assuming average weather conditions for the remainder of the year,this forecast expects natural gas demand in Central and South America to decline by close to 2%in 2023 amid depressed

106、 gas burn in the power sector and a slowdown in economic growth.Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|21 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Natural gas demand declined by 4%in Central and South America in H1 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA analysis based on ANP(2023),B

107、oletim Mensal da Produo de Petrleo e Gs Natural;BMC(2023),Informes Mensuales;Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago(2023),Statistics;CNE(2023),Generacin bruta SEN;ENARGAS(2023),Datos Abiertos;ICIS(2023),ICIS LNG Edge;IEA(2023),Monthly Gas Data Service;JODI(2023),Gas Database;MME(2023),Boletim Mensal de

108、 Acompanhamento da Industria de Gs Natural;OSINERG(2023),Reporte diario de la operacin de los sistemas de transporte de gas natural.0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJ20222023bcmArgentinaBrazilVenezuelaTrinidad and TobagoColombiaChilePeruOtherMonthly natural gas consumption,Central and South Americ

109、a,2022 and H1 2023 Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|22 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Asian gas demand returned to moderate growth in Q2-Q3 2023Following a 2%decline in 2022,natural gas demand in the Asia Pacific region returned to moderate growth during Q2-Q

110、3 2023.While gas consumption in China and certain emerging Asian markets has been on the rise,demand remains depressed in the regions mature markets amid improving nuclear availability.For the full year of 2023 Asian gas demand is projected to increase by 3%,supported by the power and industrial sec

111、tors.Following its first demand drop in four decades in 2022,Chinas natural gas consumption returned to growth in Q1 2023.Preliminary data indicate that the countrys estimated gas consumption rose by around 7%(or 18 bcm)y-o-y in Q1-Q3 2023.Industrial gas demand rose by over 3%y-o-y in H1 2023,suppor

112、ted by a recovery in economic activity.Gas-to-power demand surged by more than 10%y-o-y,as higher electricity demand together with lower hydro output increased the call on gas-fired power plants.The city gas segment rose by around 7%y-o-y due to growing gas penetration.For the full year of 2023,Chin

113、as gas demand is projected to increase by over 7%,led by the industrial and power sectors.Japans gas consumption decreased by 11%(or 7 bcm)in the first seven months of 2023.Gas-to-power demand declined by 16%(or about 3 bcm)y-o-y in the first four months of 2023.This was primarily driven by lower el

114、ectricity consumption(down by 5%y-o-y)and improving nuclear availability.Japans nuclear power output rose by 53%(or 18 TWh)y-o-y in the first eight months of 2023.In addition,city gas sales to commercial and industrial consumers decreased by 2%and 11%y-o-y respectively in the first seven months of 2

115、023.For the full year of 2023 Japans gas demand is forecast to decrease by 6%compared with last year.This decline is mainly driven by the power sector,reflecting higher nuclear power generation.Koreas gas consumption fell by 1%y-o-y in the first seven months of 2023 amid lower gas use in the power s

116、ector and city gas segments.For the full year of 2023,Koreas gas demand is expected to decrease by 2%due to higher nuclear power output.Indias primary gas supply rose by 2%in the first eight months of 2023,according to the Petroleum Planning&Analysis Cell.Demand growth is primarily supported by the

117、power,petrochemical and fertiliser sectors.For the full year of 2023,Indias natural gas demand is expected to increase by 4%,driven by the industrial and power sectors.Emerging Asias gas consumption increased by an estimated 2%y-o-y in the first seven months of 2023,amid lower LNG spot prices.Thaila

118、nd recorded 4%y-o-y growth in the first seven months of 2023,primarily driven by higher gas burn in the power sector.Bangladesh and Pakistan increased their LNG imports by 14%and 6%y-o-y in Q1-Q3 2023,respectively.This indicates a gradual recovery in the two countries gas demand,driven by higher gas

119、 use in industry and the power sector.In 2023 gas demand in emerging Asia is projected to increase by a modest 3%,supported by growing economic activity and power demand.Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|23 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.primarily driven by Ch

120、ina and emerging AsiaEstimated quarterly change in gas demand,selected Asian markets,2021-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.*Others comprise Indonesia,Malaysia,the Philippines,Singapore and Thailand.Sources:IEA analysis based on ICIS(2023),ICIS LNG Edge;CQPGX(2023),Nanbin Observation;JODI(2023),Gas World Database;

121、PPAC(2023),Gas Consumption;EPPO(2023),Energy Statistics;Korea Energy Economics Institute(2023),Monthly Energy Statistics;Ministry of Economy,Trade and Industry of Japan(2023),METI Statistics.-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%-20-15-10-50 5 10 15 202021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q

122、3Y-o-y change in%Y-o-y change in bcmChinaJapanKoreaIndiaOthers*TotalY-o-y changeMedium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|24 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.The power sector drives down European gas demand in 2023Natural gas consumption in OECD Europe fell by over 9%(o

123、r 33 bcm)y-o-y during Q1-Q3 2023.Over 60%of this demand reduction occurred in Q1 when European gas consumption fell by 12%(or 21 bcm)y-o-y,primarily driven by lower gas use in the residential and commercial sectors.The pace of demand reduction moderated to a 7%(or 12 bcm)y-o-y decline in Q2-Q3 2023.

124、Lower gas burn in the power sector accounted for the entire gas demand reduction during this period,amid lower electricity consumption and stronger renewable power output.Distribution network-related demand fell by an estimated 9%(or 12 bcm)y-o-y in Q1-Q3 2023,with over 80%of the contraction concent

125、rated in Q1.Despite a colder spring,gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors continued to decline in Q2,driven by non-weather-related factors.They include efficiency gains,administrated gas-saving measures,fuel switching,deployment of heat pumps,behavioural changes and rising affordabili

126、ty issues.Preliminary data indicate that distribution network-related demand rose by 4%(or over 0.5 bcm)in Q3,driven by the commercial and service sectors.Gas-to-power demand dropped by an estimated 16%(or 18 bcm)y-o-y in Q1-Q3 2023 and accounted for over 55%of Europes total gas demand reduction ove

127、r this period.Gas burn in the power sector dropped by close to 20%(or 17 bcm)y-o-y in Q2-Q3 2023.This steep decline was driven by a combination of factors.Subdued activity in energy-intensive industries together with continued improvements in energy efficiency and behavioural changes depressed elect

128、ricity consumption,which fell by an estimated 5%(or 58 TWh)y-o-y in Q2-Q3.In addition,stronger renewable power output(up by 8%)and improving nuclear availability in France(up by 25%)further reduced the call on gas-fired power plants.Gas demand in industry declined by an estimated 3%(or 3 bcm)in Q1-Q

129、3.First data indicate that following the steep reductions recorded in Q1,industrial gas consumption stayed close to last years levels in Q2 and increased by 10%y-o-y in Q3.While lower gas prices support gradually improving activity in gas-intensive industries,industrial gas demand remains 15%below i

130、ts Q3 2021 levels.For the full year of 2023,OECD Europes gas demand is forecast to decline by 7%.This is primarily driven by lower gas burn in the power sector,which is expected to decline by 15%amid rapidly expanding renewables and lower electricity consumption.Gas use in industry is projected to r

131、emain close to last years levels,as lower prices enable demand recovery in H2 2023.Considering the declines in the year to date,demand in the residential and commercial sectors is expected to fall by 3%in 2023.In 2024 European gas demand is forecast to grow by a moderate 2%,as the expected decline i

132、n gas-to-power demand is offset by higher gas use in the residential,commercial and industrial sectors.Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|25 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.European gas consumption dropped by over 9%in Q1-Q3 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA analys

133、is based on Enagas(2023),Natural Gas Demand;ENTSOG(2023),Transparency Platform;EPIAS(2023),Transparency Platform;Trading Hub Europe(2023),Aggregated consumption.-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%-35-28-21-14-70 7 14 21 28 352021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q3Y-o-y cha

134、nge in%Y-o-y change in bcmResidential and commercialPowerIndustryY-o-y changeEstimated quarterly change in gas demand,OECD Europe,2021-2023 Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|26 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.US natural gas production increased by close to 6%in

135、 Q1-Q3 2023 Dry natural gas production in the United States increased by an estimated 5%y-o-y(about 32 bcm)in the first nine months of 2023.On average,daily output remained above the 100 Bcf threshold(or 2.8 bcm/d).Natural gas production growth slowed from a 5%y-o-y increase in Q1-2 to 2%in Q3 2023.

136、The significant growth in natural gas production was primarily due to an increase in the output of associated gas production from oil-driven shale plays.The Permian Basin,the largest source of associated natural gas,grew its output by 10%y-o-y during January to July 2023,when it reached an all-time

137、high of 17.1 Bcf/d(or 0.48 bcm/d).The Permian Basin alone accounted for 30%of incremental natural gas production in the United States over the first eight months of 2023.This expansion is the result of sustained drilling activity in the region,with 466 wells drilled on average per month in 2023,or 8

138、.3%more y-o-y than in July 2022.Additionally,other plays such as the Eagle Ford,the Woodford and the Bakken plays contributed to the development of associated gas output.The debottlenecking of the Permian Basin will be crucial to further expansion of sales gas production.In 2023 several pipeline exp

139、ansion projects are expected to be completed.The Permian Highway Pipeline,the Whistler Pipeline and the Gulf Coast Express could add 17 bcm/yr of takeaway capacity by the end of 2023.In Northeast Texas and Louisiana,the Haynesville pure gas shale play provided further support to US gas production gr

140、owth with a 13%y-o-y increase in the first eight months of 2023.While drilling activity showed a contraction of 5%in August 2023 compared with the previous year,wells completed increased by close to 30%y-o-y.In May 2023 the completion of the Acadian Haynesville Extension pipeline added 400 Mcf/d(or

141、4 bcm/yr)of takeaway capacity to meet the growing need for feedgas in Louisiana.Gas production from the Appalachian Basin recovered from an initial contraction in the first half of the year,and displaying 0.5%y-o-y growth in July 2023.Appalachia alone accounted for almost 30%of total US production i

142、n Q1-Q3 2023.Additional takeaway capacity is expected to ease midstream pipeline constraints.The Mountain Valley Pipeline is expected to be commissioned by the end of 2023/early 2024 and would add 20 bcm/yr of transmission capacity from northwestern West Virginia to southern Virginia.The first phase

143、 of the Regional Energy Access Project(0.83 Bcf/d or 8.5 bcm/yr)is foreseen to enter commercial service in Q4 2023.We forecast growth in US natural gas production to slow during the remainder of the year due to the relatively high storage levels and an expected decline in domestic demand.For the ful

144、l year of 2023,US natural gas output is forecast to grow by around 2%.Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|27 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.The Permian Basin accounted for 30%of incremental US gas production in Q1-Q3 2023 Gas production by type,United States,201

145、8-2023 Sources:IEA analysis based on EIA(2023),Natural Gas Data;Natural Gas Weekly Update.0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.00102030405060708090100J J NAS F J DM201820192020 2021Appalachian BasinOther dry shalePermian BasinOther associatedshaleOther productionTotal US gasPipeline imports(net)Total US gas(

146、bcf/d)7580859095100105020406080100JFMAMJ JASONDJFMAMJ JASONDJFMAMJ JASONDJFMAMJ JASONDJFMAMJ JASONDJFMAMJ JAS201820192020202120222023Total US gas(Bcf/d)bcmMedium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|28 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Europes primary natural gas supply ti

147、ghtened further in Q1-Q3 2023Europes total gas supply dropped by an estimated 13%(or 54 bcm)y-o-y in Q1-Q3 2023.Lower pipeline flows from Russia,together with the ongoing decline in domestic output and higher maintenance in Norway,depressed the availability of primary gas supply.LNG inflows increase

148、d by 2.5%y-o-y in Q1-Q3 2023 and accounted for almost 40%of Europes total gas consumption,a share similar to that of Russias piped gas before its invasion of Ukraine.Russian piped gas exports to OECD Europe fell by an estimated 60%(or 42 bcm)y-o-y during Q1-Q3 2023.Piped deliveries to the European U

149、nion dropped by almost 70%(or 38 bcm)y-o-y to a total of 17 bcm in Q1-Q3 2023.The Ukrainian transit route accounted for around half of the volumes supplied to the European Union.Russian piped gas deliveries to the European Union increased by 2-20%(or 1.2 bcm)in Q3 compared with Q2,amid stronger flow

150、s via TurkStream.Exports to Trkiye declined by 20%y-o-y in the first eight months of 2023.Russian piped gas met less than 10%of OECD Europes gas demand in Q1-Q3 2023.Norways piped gas supplies to the rest of Europe declined by 11%(or 9 bcm)y-o-y in Q1-Q3 2023 amid a higher level of planned maintenan

151、ce and unplanned outages.Norwegian pipeline deliveries to the European Union fell by 6%,while exports to the United Kingdom plummeted by 25%(or 5 bcm).Non-Norwegian domestic production fell by an estimated 10%(or 5.5 bcm)y-o-y in the first seven months of 2023.The steepest declines were recorded in

152、the Netherlands,with the phase-out of the Groningen field.Pipeline gas deliveries from North Africa declined by 2%(or 0.5 bcm)y-o-y,with flows to Iberia falling by 14%(or 1 bcm)and those to Italy rising by 3%(or 0.5 bcm).Gas flows from Azerbaijan via the Trans Adriatic pipeline rose by 2%(or 0.2 bcm

153、)y-o-y during Q1-Q3 2023.Europes LNG imports increased by 8%(or 7 bcm)y-o-y in H1 2023.Continued demand reductions together with high storage levels weighed on European LNG imports in Q3,leading to a reduction of 9(or over 3 bcm),the first decline since Russias invasion of Ukraine.LNG flows from the

154、 United States increased by 6%(or 3.5 bcm).This further reinforced the position of the United States as Europes leading LNG supplier,with a 46%share of total LNG imports.Russias LNG exports to Europe remained broadly flat.According to shipping data,80%of Europes total LNG imports from Russia in Q1-Q

155、3 2023 were delivered to Belgium,France and Spain.The volume of Russian piped gas supplies remains a major uncertainty for Q4 2023.Assuming that flows to the European Union continue at their current levels,Russian piped gas deliveries to OECD Europe would drop by around 50%(or 40 bcm)in 2023.LNG imp

156、orts are expected to remain broadly flat in 2023 compared with last year amid high storage levels.A colder than average Q4 could lead to higher LNG import needs.Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|29 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Europes LNG imports switched fr

157、om growth to decline in Q3 2023 amid high storage levels IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA analysis based on ENTSOG(2023),Transparency Platform;Eurostat(2023),Energy Statistics;Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine(2023),Transparency Platform;ICIS LNG Edge;JODI(2023),Gas World Database.-40-30-20-100 1

158、0 20 30 402021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q3Y-o-y change in bcmLNGOthers-pipeline flowsNorway-pipeline flowsRussia-pipeline flowsTotal change in gas imports and pipeline deliveries from NorwayEstimated quarterly change in European natural gas imports and deliveries fr

159、om Norway,Q1 2021-Q3 2023 Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|30 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Global LNG trade grew by 3%in Q1-Q3 2023,primarily supported by US exports Global LNG supply expanded by 3%y-o-y(or 11 bcm)in Q1-Q3 2023,measured on an import basis.T

160、his growth was primarily supported by the United States and Algeria,together accounting for 85%of the incremental global LNG supply.The Asia Pacific region and Europe led LNG demand growth,increasing their LNG inflows by 2.7%and 2.5%respectively.From a supply perspective,North America accounted for

161、more than half of incremental LNG exports,while growth from Algeria,Mozambique and Norway also drove increased trade.The United States saw a remarkable 8%(or 6.1 bcm in absolute terms)y-o-y increase in its LNG output in the year to date,primarily driven by the continued ramp-up of Calcasieu Pass and

162、 the return of the Freeport LNG export terminal to full service after a fire-induced outage in June 2022.Algerias LNG exports increased by 30%(or 2.8 bcm)in Q1-Q3 2023.OECD Europe have benefited from this growth,absorbing more than 90%of the total LNG volumes exported from Algeria so far this year.M

163、ozambiques LNG exports contributed 2.3 bcm to global incremental supply,with the continued ramp-up of Coral South FLNG.Additional y-o-y growth in LNG supply was driven by Norway(up 2.3 bcm yoy),Indonesia(up 1.4 bcm yoy)and Qatar(up 1 bcm yoy).From a demand perspective,Europes LNG imports continued t

164、o grow in H1 2023,reversing to a y-o-y decline in Q3 amid continued gas demand reduction and high storage levels.Europes net LNG imports rose by 2.7%y-o-y(or 3.2 bcm)in Q1-Q3 2023,largely driven by higher LNG inflows to the Netherlands,Germany and Italy.In contrast,LNG flows to France dropped by 16%

165、(or 4 bcm)in Q1-Q3 2023 amid widespread strike action in April and May.The commercial start-up of several new floating storage and regasification units(FSRUs)facilitated European LNG import growth.Altogether,30 bcm/yr of regasification capacity has been added in Germany,Italy,Finland,the Netherlands

166、 and Trkiye since Russias invasion of Ukraine.This incremental regasification capacity allows for a more optimal inflow of LNG into the European market and lowered the utilisation rate of the existing LNG import terminals.Overall,Europes LNG regasification terminals saw a 64%utilisation rate in Q1-Q

167、3 2023,compared with a rate of 75%during the same period in 2022.LNG imports into the Asia Pacific region increased by 2.6%y-o-y(or 6.3 bcm in absolute terms)in Q1-Q3 2023.This was primarily driven by China.After more than 13 months of year-on-year declines,Chinas net LNG imports started to recover

168、in March 2023 and grew by 13%y-o-y(or 7.8 bcm)in Q1-Q3 2023.Three new LNG import terminals have been commissioned so far this year,namely Caofeidian Xintian LNG terminal in Tangshan city(6.8 bcm/yr),Wenzhou LNG in Zheijang(4 bcm/yr),and Nansha LNG in Guangzhou city(1.4 bcm/yr).China has now 27 LNG i

169、mport terminals,with a total regasification capacity of 156 bcm/yr.Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|31 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.In contrast,Japans LNG imports declined by 9%(or 6.6 bcm)in Q1-Q3 2023,as improving nuclear availability and lower electricit

170、y demand weighed on gas-fired power generation.Japans LNG imports fell to their lowest in more than 20 years in May at 5.5 bcm(down by 19%y-o-y),as efforts to save energy and boost nuclear power reduced gas demand.Koreas LNG imports slightly decreased in Q1-Q3 2023(down 3.8%or 1.7 bcm y-o-y)due to l

171、ower gas demand,supporting high LNG inventory levels.In contrast,Thailands LNG imports grew by a strong 33%y-o-y(or 3.1 bcm),largely supported by the countrys declining domestic production.Singapores LNG imports increased by 33%(or 1.3 bcm)y-o-y in Q1-Q3 2023,supported by stable gas demand and lower

172、 pipeline supplies from Indonesia and Malaysia.Indias LNG imports increased by 8%(up by 1.4 bcm)compared with Q1-Q3 2022.Lower spot LNG prices since Q2(below the USD 15/MBtu threshold)spurred a positive demand response from industry and the power sector.In April the country commissioned the Dhamra L

173、NG import terminal(7 bcm/yr),which adds more than 10%to Indias existing regasification capacity.This is Indias seventh LNG import facility and the second on the east coast,along with Ennore.According to data from PPAC,demand for regasified LNG in the fertiliser sector almost tripled in the first 8 m

174、onths of 2023 compared with the same period in 2022,largely thanks to government subsidies and improved connectivity for fertiliser plants in southern India.JKM prices moderated significantly from the levels seen at the beginning of 2023,and South Asian buyers returned to the spot markets via tender

175、s,especially as demand for electricity in the region increased with the heat waves in spring and summer 2023.Bangladesh and Pakistan saw their LNG imports increase by 12%and 9%respectively(or 0.6 bcm for both)y-o-y in Q1-Q3 2023.LNG imports in Central and South America slightly increased by 1.5%(or

176、0.2 bcm)y-o-y in Q1-Q3 2023.Brazils LNG imports dropped by 67%(or 1.8 bcm)y-o-y in Q1-Q3 amid healthy hydro availability and a lower gas burn in the power sector.For the full year of 2023 we forecast global LNG trade to increase by 3%(or 18 bcm).The United States alone is expected to contribute more

177、 than half of the incremental LNG supply and become the worlds largest LNG exporter.Additional supply is expected from improved feed gas availability in Algeria,the start-up of Tangguh Train 3 in Indonesia and the continued ramp-up of Coral South FLNG in Mozambique.Demand growth is set to be largely

178、 driven by Asia.Chinas LNG imports are expected to increase by 16%over 2022 levels.While Chinas LNG inflows are forecast to remain below their record levels of 2021,the country is set to regain its position as the worlds largest LNG importer.Europes LNG imports are expected to remain close to last y

179、ears levels.Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|32 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.LNG demand growth is largely driven by the Asia Pacific region in 2023 LNG imports and exports by region,2015-2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Source:IEA analysis based on ICIS(2022),ICIS LNG Ed

180、ge.-800-600-400-2000200400600800201520162017201820192020202120222023bcmNorth AmericaMiddle EastEuropeEurasiaCentral and South AmericaAsia PacificAfricaIMPORTSEXPORTSMedium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|33 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.European natural gas prices

181、 continued to weaken in Q3 2023,while Asian and US spot prices strengthened compared with Q2 Subdued demand,together with high storage levels,weighed on spot gas prices in Europe in Q3.In Asia,emerging buying interest and supply uncertainty strengthened JKM prices compared with Q2.In the United Stat

182、es,Henry Hub prices rose amid tighter supplydemand fundamentals and a gradually eroding storage surplus.In Europe,TTF spot prices declined by 8%on the quarter to an average of just over USD 10/MBtu in Q3 2023,standing 80%below last years levels.Continued demand reduction and high inventory levels pu

183、t downward pressure on European hub prices in Q3.Despite lower price levels,volatility remained elevated.Outages in Norway and the risk of strikes at LNG plants in Australia fuelled strong price volatility during August and September.Historic volatility in TTF month-ahead prices averaged 140%in Q3 2

184、023 its highest level since Q1 2022,when Russias invasion of Ukraine drove price volatility to all-time highs.TTFs premium over NBP narrowed to USD 0.1/MBtu in Q3 2023 from over USD 18/MBtu during the same period last year.The expansion of LNG regasification capacity in Northwest Europe and lower st

185、orage injection needs eased congestion along the EUUK interconnectors,which in turn tightened the TTFNBP price spread.NBP traded at a premium compared with TTF in September,as lower Norwegian pipeline deliveries supported stronger price gains on the British gas hub.In Asia,JKM prices increased by 15

186、%on the quarter to an average of USD 12.5/MBtu in Q3 2023,albeit 70%lower than the same period last year.Emerging buying interest together with supply uncertainty surrounding Australian LNG provided upward support to JKM prices in Q3.Asian spot LNG prices recovered their premium over European hub pr

187、ices at the end of May 2023.JKM averaged USD 2/MBtu above TTF month-ahead prices in Q3 2023.The re-emergence of the JKM premium above TTF drove LNG cargos away from Europe.While Asias LNG imports grew by 6%y-o-y in Q3,Europes declined by 9%.In the United States,Henry Hub prices increased by 20%on th

188、e quarter to an average of USD 2.6/MBtu in Q2 2023,albeit down by 65%compared with last years levels.Slower domestic production growth combined with robust gas burn in the power sector and higher LNG exports drove the quarter-on-quarter increase in gas prices.According to forward curves as of the en

189、d of September 2023,TTF is set to average just below USD 13/MBtu in 2023,with JKM slightly above USD 13.5/MBtu and Henry Hub at USD 2.7/MBtu.JKM prices are expected to have an average of USD 2/MBtu above TTF in Q4 2023.Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|34 Gas m

190、arket update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Asian spot LNG prices are expected to trade above TTF in Q4 2023 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Note:Future prices are based on forward curves as of the end of September 2023 and do not represent a price forecast.Sources:IEA analysis based on CME Group(2023),Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Q

191、uotes,Dutch TTF Natural Gas Month Futures Settlements,LNG Japan/Korea Marker(Platts)Futures Settlements;EIA(2023),Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price;Powernext(2023),Spot Market Data;S&P Global(2023),Platts Connect.0 20 40 60Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q420222023USD/MBtuTTFHenry HubJKMMain spot and forward nat

192、ural gas prices,2020-2023 Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|35 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.Storage injections in the European Union and the United States slowed in Q3 2023 Despite slower injections in Q3,storage sites in the European Union and the United St

193、ates opened the 2023/24 heating season2 with inventory levels standing well above their historic averages.This is largely due to the above-average inventory levels inherited from the 2022/23 winter season,and in the case of the United States strong storage build-up over Q2.In the European Union,stor

194、age sites closed the 2022/23 heating season with inventory levels standing 67%(or 23 bcm)above their five-year average as a consequence of below-average net withdrawals during the winter.Lower primary gas supply(domestic production and imports)led to a slower storage build-up during the gas summer.N

195、et injections fell 22%(or 12 bcm)below their five-year average to a total of 42 bcm in Q2 and Q3 2023.While slower injection rates moderated the EU storage surplus,inventory levels still stood 12%(or 10 bcm)above their five-year average on 1 October 2023.Consequently,EU inventory levels reached 96%o

196、f their working storage capacity by the start of the 2023/24 heating season,6%above the EU storage target.In Ukraine,gas inventory levels at the end of March 2023 were estimated at 9 bcm and rose to 15 bcm by the end of Q3.As EU storage sites reached 90%of their working storage capacity by the begin

197、ning of August,injections 2 The heating season(or gas winter)in the markets of the Northern Hemisphere refers to the period between 1 October and 31 March.increasingly shifted to Ukraine.The country alone accounted for over 25%of total European storage injections during August and September.EU trade

198、rs injected 2 bcm of natural gas into Ukraines gas storage facilities before the start of the 2023/24 winter season.In the United States,storage sites opened the 2023 injection season 43%full,standing almost 20%(or 8 bcm)above their five-year average.Strong growth in domestic gas production supporte

199、d above-average net injections in Q2;they were 7%(or 2 bcm)above their five-year average at 29 bcm.The slowdown in production growth,together with high gas-to-power demand and rising LNG exports,depressed storage injections in Q3,which were 25%(or 5.5 bcm)below their five-year average at 16 bcm.Whil

200、e slower injections moderated the US storage surplus,inventory levels still stood 5%(or 5 bcm)above their five-year average at the end of September,reaching a fill level of 81%.In Japan and Korea,closing LNG stocks stood 29%(or 2.8 bcm)above their five-year average in July 2023.Lower LNG imports wei

201、ghed on the LNG stocks of Japans largest power generation companies,which declined by 20%between early August and the end of September to 1.62 Mt(2.2 bcm),standing 19%below their five-year average.The injection season(or gas summer)in the markets of the Northern Hemisphere refers to the period betwe

202、en 1 April and 30 September.Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|36 Gas market update IEA.CC BY 4.0.EU and US storage sites opened the 2023/24 heating season with inventories well above their five-year average IEA.CC BY 4.0.Sources:IEA analysis based on EIA(2023),

203、Weekly Working Gas In Underground Storage;GIE(2023),AGSI+Database;IEA(2023),Monthly Gas Data Service.US underground storage inventory EU underground storage inventory Japan and Korea LNG stock inventory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepbcmFive-year rangeFive-year average2022/

204、230 20 40 60 80 100 120OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepbcm0 3 6 9 12 15OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepbcmMedium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|37 Medium-term market outlook IEA.CC BY 4.0.Medium-term market outlook Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the

205、Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|38 Medium-term market outlook IEA.CC BY 4.0.Global gas demand:Towards a slower growth trajectoryGlobal gas demand expanded by over 10%(or 380 bcm)between 2017 and 2021,making it the fastest-growing source of energy supply.The global gas crisis triggered by Russia,toget

206、her with a weaker macroeconomic outlook,is weighing on the prospects for natural gas.Global gas demand growth is forecast to slow down significantly,from an average rate of 2.5%per year during 2017-2021 to 1.6%during 2022-2026.Industry alone is expected to account for almost 60%of incremental gas de

207、mand,primarily concentrated in the fast-growing markets of Asia Pacific and the gas-rich countries of the Middle East.Gas-to-power demand growth is expected to decelerate from an average of 2.4%between 2017 and 2021 to 0.5%.While gas-fired power generation is still expanding in emerging markets,this

208、 growth is almost entirely offset by demand reduction in the mature markets of Europe,North America and Northeast Asia.Natural gas demand in North America the worlds largest gas market is set for a slow decline.Gas demand expanded by 12%(or over 115 bcm)between 2017 and 2021,primarily driven by coal

209、-to-gas switching dynamics in the United States and Canda.In contrast with other regions,North American gas demand continued to grow in 2022,rising by close to 5%(or 53 bcm)compared with 2021.This increase was largely due to the power generation sector and the residential and commercial sectors.Gas

210、demand is expected to remain broadly flat in 2023,as higher gas-to-power demand is offset by demand reductions in the industrial,commercial and residential sectors.Gas demand for power generation declines in 2024 and beyond.As a result,overall North American gas demand is forecast to decline at an a

211、verage rate of 0.5%per year during 2022-2026,primarily due to lower gas burn in the power sector amid the continued expansion of renewables.Gas use in the industrial sector is forecast to increase at a rate of 0.5%per year,primarily due to the expansion of gas-intensive industrial subsectors,includi

212、ng fertilisers.Gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors is set for a gradual decline amid energy efficiency gains enabled by retrofits.The Asia Pacific region is set to remain the driving force behind natural gas demand growth globally,accounting for almost 70%of incremental gas demand o

213、ver the medium term.The regions demand for gas grew at a rate of 4%per year between 2017 and 2021,supported by economic expansion,Chinas mandated coal-to-gas switching policy and its gasification programme.Asias gas consumption decreased by an estimated 2%in 2022 due to all-time high LNG prices,Covi

214、d-induced lockdowns in China and mild weather during most of the year in Northeast Asia.Chinas natural gas consumption declined for the first time in four decades.The Asia Pacific regions gas demand is expected to recover in 2023 by close to 3%,primarily supported by China.The regions demand is expe

215、cted to expand by 20%by 2026 Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|39 Medium-term market outlook IEA.CC BY pared with 2022.Demand growth is primarily concentrated in China,India and emerging Asia,while gas demand is set to decline in the regions mature markets(Japa

216、n and Korea)on improving nuclear availability and a growing share of renewables in the power sector.Eurasian natural gas demand trends towards stagnation.The regions natural gas consumption rose by 13%(or 72 bcm)between 2017 and 2021,led by Russia and primarily supported by demand growth in the indu

217、strial and power sectors.In 2022 natural gas consumption fell by 4%amid economic contraction in Russia and milder winter weather conditions.Natural gas demand growth is forecast to slow from an average of 3%between 2017 and 2021 to 1.9%between 2023 and 2026.This moderate recovery from 2022 allows th

218、e regions gas demand to stand just 2%above its 2021 level by 2026.Weaker economic growth in Russia and upstream supply issues in Uzbekistan,the regions second-largest gas market,are limiting the prospects of gas demand growth in Eurasia.Natural gas demand in Europe is set for structural decline over

219、 the medium term.OECD Europes natural gas consumption remained broadly flat between 2017 and 2021.The 2022 gas crisis triggered by Russia deeply transformed the European market:consumption fell by 13%(or 72 bcm),its steepest drop on record.Lower gas use in the residential and commercial sectors,toge

220、ther with plummeting industrial gas demand,accounted for the bulk of this reduction.Natural gas consumption is set to decline further in 2023,primarily due to lower gas burn in the power sector amid lower electricity demand and the continued expansion of renewables.OECD Europes natural gas demand is

221、 forecast to decline by 8%(or over 35 bcm)during 2022-2026 and by 2026 to stand almost 20%(or 110 bcm)below the level reached in 2021.This decline is driven by structural factors,including more rapid deployment of renewables and heat pumps,and energy efficiency gains.This forecast assumes that over

222、half of the industrial gas demand lost in 2022 will not be recovered by 2026.Natural gas demand in the Middle East is set to continue its rapid expansion,at an average rate of 2.6%between 2022 and 2026.Iran and Saudi Arabia are expected to account for around 75%of the incremental gas demand.The expa

223、nsion of gas-intensive industries,together with the gradual phase-out of oil products from the power sector,is set to support this growth.Africas gas demand growth is driven by its rapidly rising population,improving energy access and economic growth.The regions gas demand growth is forecast to acce

224、lerate from 3%between 2017 and 2021 to close to 4%between 2022 and 2026.Higher gas burn in the power sector is expected to account for almost 70%of incremental gas demand.Natural gas demand in Central and South America is set for a moderate growth,primarily driven by industry.This growth is supporte

225、d by improving natural gas production prospects in Argentina and Brazil.Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|40 Medium-term market outlook IEA.CC BY 4.0.Global gas demand growth is set to slow by one-third over the forecast period IEA.CC BY 4.0.-200-1000 100 200 3

226、00 4002017-212022-26bcmAfricaAsia PacificCentral and South AmericaEurasiaEuropeMiddle EastNorth AmericaNet demand growthThe evolution of natural gas demand by region,2017-2021 vs 2022-2026 Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|41 Medium-term market outlook IEA.CC B

227、Y 4.0.Asia Pacific is expected to account for 70%of incremental gas demand over the medium term IEA.CC BY 4.0.-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%-200-160-120-80-400 40 80 120 160 20020192020202120222023202420252026Y-o-y change(%)Y-o-y change(bcm)North AmericaAsia PacificEurasiaMiddle EastEuropeAfricaSouth and Central

228、 AmericaY-o-y changeForecastYear-on-year change in natural gas production by region,2020-2026 Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|42 Medium-term market outlook IEA.CC BY 4.0.European natural gas demand:Structural declineThe gas supply shock triggered by Russia in

229、 2022 reinforced the structural drivers accelerating the decline in European gas demand over the medium term.Natural gas demand in OECD Europe is expected to decline by 8%(or 35 bcm)between 2022 and 2026 and stand almost 20%(or 110 bcm)below the 2021 level by 2026.A relatively high gas price environ

230、ment is set to weigh on demand recovery in industry,while a more rapid deployment of renewables is expected to reduce the call on gas-fired power plants.In the residential and commercial sectors,energy efficiency gains together with more rapid installation of heat pumps are set to reduce gas use dur

231、ing the forecast period.Nevertheless,the flexibility provided by natural gas will remain crucial to ensure security of energy and electricity supply in the medium term.Residential and commercial sectors European gas consumption fell by 13%(or 72 bcm)in 2022,its steepest drop on record.Lower gas use

232、in the residential and commercial sectors(down by 15%compared with 2021)accounted for almost half of this decline.Milder weather conditions explain just over 40%of the gas demand reduction in the residential and commercial sectors.Non-weather-related factors were a major driver behind this lower gas

233、 use.Gas-saving measures enacted in public buildings,fuel-switching in households with the option,the installation of heat pumps,efficiency gains and behavioural changes all played a critical role in reducing distribution network-related demand.In addition,rising affordability issues contributed to

234、lower natural gas use in households.The share of households unable to keep their homes adequately warm rose from 6.9%in 2021 to 9.3%in 2022 its highest level since 2015.Natural gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors is set for a moderate reduction over the medium term.Accounting for th

235、e declines this year to date,distribution network-related demand is expected to drop by 4%in 2023.A return to average temperatures would alone increase residential and commercial demand during 2024-2026,although more structural changes are set to offset this impact and weigh on natural gas use.In th

236、e European Union,the Renovation Wave is set to improve the energy efficiency standards of the building stock.Considering the renovation rates targeted by the European Union,direct natural gas savings from improved energy efficiency could amount to over 0.8 bcm/yr in the period 2023-2026.Electrificat

237、ion of heat through the deployment of heat pumps is expected to further moderate natural gas use in the residential and commercial sectors.This forecast assumes that heat pumps could reduce natural gas demand by over 3 bcm by 2026 compared with 2022 levels.Considering the temperature sensitivity of

238、these sectors,significant demand variations can occur depending on weather conditions,which would alter the current forecast.Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|43 Medium-term market outlook IEA.CC BY 4.0.Power sector Despite record high gas prices,European gas-t

239、o-power demand remained relatively resilient in 2022,declining by just 4%(or 6 bcm).While decade-low hydro and nuclear generation increased the call on gas-fired power plants in certain markets,lower electricity demand together with gas-to-coal switching and stronger wind and solar power output weig

240、hed on the overall gas burn in the power sector.Gas-to-power demand is forecast to decline by over 25%(or close to 50 bcm)in the period 2022-2026,primarily driven by accelerated deployment of renewables and improving nuclear availability.Gas-fired power generation is expected to drop by over 15%(or

241、25 bcm)in 2023 due to lower electricity demand,stronger nuclear and hydro output and the continued expansion of wind and solar power generation.The decline in gas-to-power demand is projected to slow to a rate of below 5%per year during 2024-2026 amid the expected recovery in electricity demand and

242、the continued coal phase-out.Coal-fired power generation capacity is set to decline by close to 25%(or over 30 GW)between 2022 and 2026,with around 85%of the plant closures concentrated in northern and southwestern Europe.This in turn reinforces the role of gas-fired power plants in providing flexib

243、le power supply and ensuring electricity supply security in an increasingly variable renewables-dominated power system.Industry Natural gas demand in industry dropped by around 20%(or 30 bcm)in 2022,with all-time high gas prices driving fuel-switching and leading to reduced production rates across t

244、he most gas-and energy-intensive industries.In the European Union,production curtailments accounted for around half of the decline in industrial gas use,with chemicals and fertilisers being the most-affected sectors.For instance,ammonia production dropped by close to 25%,methanol output by 23%and ur

245、ea by almost 20%.Our forecast assumes that more than half of the industrial gas demand lost in 2022 will not be recovered over the medium term,as the relatively high gas price environment weighs on the prospects of gas-intensive European industries.In 2023 gas use in industry is expected to stay clo

246、se to last years levels,with demand recovery in the second half of the year offsetting the losses in H1.Industrial sector gas use is expected to marginally recover during 2024-2026 amid an improving macroeconomic environment and healthier supply availability.The relocation of European industries to

247、other regions with a structurally lower cost of gas supply remains a major downside risk to industrial gas demand in Europe.As hightlighted in a recent survey,almost a third of Germanys industrial companies are relocating capacity abroad or restricting production at home,or are planning to do so,in

248、light of the impacts of the 2022 energy crisis.Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|44 Medium-term market outlook IEA.CC BY 4.0.The expansion of renewables is set to reduce Europes gas demand over the medium term IEA.CC BY 4.0.300 350 400 450 5002022PowerResidenti

249、al andcommercialIndustryOther sectors2026bcmExpected change in natural gas demand by sector,OECD Europe,2022-2026 Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|45 Medium-term market outlook IEA.CC BY 4.0.Russian natural gas demand:Trending towards stagnationRussias invasio

250、n of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions regime have negatively affected the outlook for Russian gas demand over the medium term.Following a steep decline in 2022,Russias natural gas demand is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.5%per year during the forecast period,largely supported by the in

251、dustrial and power sectors.Recent demand trends Russias natural gas demand rose by a strong 12%(or 55 bcm)in 2021 to reach an all-time high of 516 bcm.This particularly strong growth was supported by a number of factors.Colder weather conditions during the heating season led to higher gas use in the

252、 residential and commercial sectors,including indirectly via the countrys vast district heating system.Recovery in economic activity(GDP grew by 5.6%)following the Covid-related lockdowns of 2020 supported stronger demand from the countrys energy-and gas-intensive industries.Gas burn in the power se

253、ctor increased by over 10%in 2021,reflecting economic growth,colder weather conditions and lower hydro availability in the countrys western regions(where most of the gas-fired power fleet is located).Following strong growth in 2021,Russias natural gas demand dropped by over 5.5%(or almost 30 bcm)in

254、2022.This partly reflected the countrys deteriorating commercial and industrial activity.Russias GDP declined by 2.1%in 2022 amid the sanctions imposed following its invasion of Ukraine.Initial estimates indicate that natural gas use in industry fell by over 7%(or more than 6 bcm)amid lower demand f

255、rom the more energy-intensive and export-oriented industrial sectors.For instance,Russias ammonia production dropped by 15%(or 3 Mt)in 2022,that alone translating into a reduction in gas demand of around 3 bcm.Gas use in the residential and commercial sectors dropped by over 5%as milder winter weath

256、er conditions lowered space heating requirements.Gas burn in the electricity and heat generation sector declined by an estimated 4%(or over 10 bcm)primarily due to lower district heating demand.The steep decline in Russias gas production(down by 12%)together with the halving of piped gas exports to

257、Europe weighed on natural gas use as a fuel for compressor stations in the countrys vast transmission system.Consequently,gas used for transport dropped by an estimated 10%(or 4 bcm)in 2022.Medium-term forecast Russias natural gas demand is expected to remain broadly flat in 2023,as higher gas burn

258、in the power sector is offset by the continued reduction in gas use in the industrial and transport sectors.Gas demand is projected to return to growth in 2024 and expand by 6%(or close to 30 bcm)between 2022 and 2026,largely supported by the industrial and power sectors.Medium-Term Gas Report 2023

259、Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|46 Medium-term market outlook IEA.CC BY 4.0.Industry Natural gas demand in industry is forecast to expand by 10%(or more than 10 bcm)in the period 2022-2026,accounting for one-third of overall demand growth.However,around 60%of industrial demand growth is

260、 associated with the recovery following the steep decline in 2022.Incremental gas demand is set to be driven by rising fertiliser production,primarily higher ammonia output.Russia has set ambitious plans to develop its gas-based chemicals industry,including a ramp-up in methanol production.Three pro

261、jects are under advanced development,with the potential to add 4.5 Mt/yr of production capacity by 2026,which could translate into more than 4 bcm/yr of gas demand.However,these projects are facing increasingly uncertain timelines and could be delayed beyond our forecast horizon,amid sanctions limit

262、ing access to capital markets and key energy technologies.Power sector Natural gas demand in Russias power sector(including heat generation)is expected to increase at an average rate of less than 1%per year during 2022-2026,assuming average weather conditions.This meagre growth will be partly suppor

263、ted by a continued increase in Russias electricity demand amid gradually improving commercial and industrial activity in the country.Nuclear plant closures totalling 2.8 GW during 2024-2026 are expected to provide additional market space for gas-fired power plants.Residential and commercial sectors

264、Direct gas use in the residential and commercial sectors is projected to increase at an average of 1.5%per year during 2022-2026.Given the temperature sensitivity of these sectors,significant demand variations can occur depending on weather conditions.Demand growth in these sectors is largely suppor

265、ted by Russias gasification programme carried out by Gazprom.Natural gas penetration in Russia has risen significantly in recent years,from 53%in 2006 to 73%by the end of 2022.Under the current gasification scheme more than 530 000 new households will be connected to the gas grid in 2021-2025,with a

266、n investment of over RUB 520 billion(or USD 5.5 billion).The gasification level is expected to increase to 75%by 2024 and to 83%by 2030.Transport Natural gas use in transport is expected to expand by close to 10%(or 3.5 bcm)during 2022-2026.This is largely supported by higher demand from the transmi

267、ssion system amid the gradual recovery in Russias natural gas production and the ramp-up of piped gas exports to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline system.In addition,Russia is set to increase the use of natural gas as a road fuel.Gas demand for natural gas vehicles rose from 1 bcm in 2020 to 1

268、.72 bcm by 2022 and is expected to expand by close to 70%to reach over 3 bcm by 2026.Medium-Term Gas Report 2023 Including the Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|47 Medium-term market outlook IEA.CC BY 4.0.Russias gas demand recovery is primarily led by the industrial and power sectors IEA.CC BY 4.0.480

269、 490 500 510 5202022PowerIndustryResidential andcommercialTransportOthers2026Change in bcmElectricity demand growthLowernuclear outputDemand recoveryIncremental:fertiliserschemicalsGasificationprogrammePiped transportNGVsEnergy sector own use/lossesExpected change in natural gas demand by sector,Rus

270、sia,2022-2026 Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|48 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Medium-term market outlook Improving nuclear availability and rising renewable power output is expected to reduce gas demand in Japan and Korea Combined gas demand in Japan and Korea is forecast to decline by 8%(or 13 bcm)between 2022 and

271、 2026,primarily due to improving nuclear availability and the continued expansion of renewable power generation.Improving energy efficiency standards are expected to further weigh on gas use in the residential and commercial sectors.This in turn could help ease prevailing market tensions and enhance

272、 global gas supply security in the coming years.Japan Natural gas demand in Japan declined by 1%(or 1 bcm)in 2022.While commercial and industrial city gas sales increased by 7%and 3%respectively,the decline in total gas demand was driven by significantly lower gas consumption in the power sector.In

273、2023 Japans natural gas demand is expected to drop by 6%(or 6 bcm)compared with 2022.This decline is primarily driven by lower gas burn in the power sector amid improving nuclear availability.Slower economic growth is expected to weigh on gas demand in industry,while an unseasonably mild Q1 reduced

274、gas use in the residential and commercial sectors,weighing on the outlook for the full year of 2023.Japans gas demand is projected to decline by 11%(or 11 bcm)by 2026 compared with 2022.Lower gas burn in the power sector alone accounts for around 80%of the overall demand reduction in the forecast pe

275、riod,as higher nuclear and renewable energy generation weighs on gas-fired power output.Japans nuclear power output is set to increase in the medium term.Takahama 1 restarted full-scale operations at the end of August 2023.In addition,Takahama 2 is scheduled to restart full-scale operations in Octob

276、er.Including the restart of these two reactors,12 reactors(about 11.6 GW in total)will be in operation in October.Based on the latest publicly available information,it can be assumed that the number of restarts will gradually increase after 2023.Total operating nuclear capacity could increase to ove

277、r 15 GW by 2026,weighing on coal-and gas-fired power generation,but with high uncertainty regarding restarts and operating capacity growth.At the same time,other factors affecting gas consumption in the power generation sector include a decrease in electricity demand due to energy conservation and a

278、n increase in renewable power generation.Consequently,gas-fired generation in Japan is forecast to decline by 14%between 2022 and 2026.In particular,renewable energy has shown significant growth in recent years and can be assumed to continue its rise.According to Japans 6th Strategic Energy Plan pub

279、lished in 2021,the share of renewable energy in the power supply mix in FY2030 should be 36-38%and the amount of electricity generated 336-353 TWh/yr,an Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|49 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Medium-term market outlook increase of approximately 60%from FY 2021.Energy efficiency gains and pr

280、ogress in energy saving in the industrial,residential and commercial sectors all contribute to a reduction in gas consumption.Korea Natural gas demand in Korea declined by about 1%(or 0.7 bcm)in 2022.Gas consumption for power generation fell by about 3%,lowering overall gas demand.The industrial and

281、 city gas segments increased,but not enough to compensate for the reduction in power generation.Koreas gas demand in 2023 is expected to decrease by about 2%compared with 2022.This is mainly due to a decline in power generation as nuclear and renewable generation increase,but also due to lower gas u

282、se in city gas segments.Koreas gas demand is projected to decline by 4%(or 2 bcm)by 2026 compared with 2022.Nuclear power and renewable energy output are expected to continue growing,which will reduce the call on coal-and gas-fired power plants.In January 2023 Korea announced plans to increase nucle

283、ar power generation through the 10th Basic Energy Plan.According to the plan,in 2030 nuclear power capacity is expected to reach approximately 29 GW,accounting for 32%of all electricity generation.Shin Hanul 1 started commercial operation in December 2022,and currently 25 reactors are in operation w

284、ith a total capacity of approximately 25 GW.Shin Hanul 2 is scheduled to start full operations in Q1 2024.In addition,Saeul 3 and Saeul 4 are expected to become operational,and total operating nuclear capacity could increase to close to 29 GW by 2026.At the same time,the amount of renewable power ge

285、neration is also expected to increase significantly over the medium term.Consequently,gas-fired power generation in Korea is forecast to decline by about 10%between 2022 and 2026.According to the 10th Basic Energy Plan,the share of renewable power output in total power generation should increase to

286、about 22%in 2030,with the share of gas-fired power supply at approximately 23%.It is assumed that the consumption of city gas segments will increase slightly towards 2026.However,this will not be enough to compensate for the decline in power generation.Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|50 IEA.CC BY 4.0

287、.Medium-term market outlook Combined natural gas demand in Japan and Korea is expected to decline by 8%over the medium term Natural gas demand,and nuclear and renewable power generation,Japan and Korea,2022-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|51 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Medium-term market outlook

288、 China is expected to account for nearly half of medium-term global gas demand growthChina is set to remain the key driving force behind global gas demand growth over the medium term,accounting for 48%of incremental gas demand during 2022-2026.Following its first decline in four decades in 2022,Chin

289、as natural gas demand returned to a clear path of recovery over the first eight months of 2023.Demand growth is expected to remain strong at an average of 8%per year during 2022-2026,although below the 11%growth rate experienced between 2017 and 2021.Slower economic expansion,together with relativel

290、y high gas price levels and accelerated deployment of renewables,is set to moderate Chinas natural gas demand growth over the short to medium term.Industry The industrial sector has been the longstanding driver of demand in the Chinese gas market,accounting for nearly 40%of overall gas demand in rec

291、ent years and almost half of total demand growth during 2017-2021.In 2022 gas demand in industry was hampered by a combination of factors.Strict Covid restrictions remained in place until December,acting as a brake on overall economic activity.All-time-high gas prices further softened industrial out

292、put and spurred fuel switching away from gas.As a result,while Chinese economic growth slowed to a rate of approximately 3%,the industrial sectors gas demand fell by approximately 2%.However,with Covid-related lockdowns easing and price pressures softening since late 2022,industrys gas demand is bac

293、k on track and expected to grow by 8%in 2023,accounting for half of this years demand growth.Industry is set to continue its multi-year trend as the primary driver of natural gas demand growth in China,accounting for 40%of its incremental gas demand from 2022 to 2026.A slowing of GDP growth compared

294、 with recent years has led to a downward revision in the demand outlook,but continued economic recovery is expected to drive industrial sector gas demand which is expected to expand by 40%by 2026 compared with 2022.However,the sectors gas demand outlook remains uncertain as a state-led policy push a

295、iming to replace coal with natural gas in industry is met by the reality of price uncertainty and a focus on ensuring“reliable energy supplies”.Power sector Power generation is only the third-largest gas demand sector in China,but accounted for close to one-fifth of incremental demand during 2017-20

296、21.Growth of over 40%in installed gas-fired capacity over this period facilitated average annual growth of 9%in Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|52 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Medium-term market outlook power sector gas burn.Still,the share of natural gas in the power mix has grown more slowly than renewables,reach

297、ing only 3%of Chinas total power production in 2022,far behind the more than 60%share held by coal.In 2022 gas use for electricity generation fell by 10%,squeezed by high gas prices and record renewable capacity additions.However,recovery in electricity demand and restricted hydro output due to hist

298、oric heatwaves in the spring have led Chinas power sector gas demand to register strong growth in the first eight months of 2023.Improved gas plant economics thanks to a steep decline in gas prices compared with 2022 are also expected to lead to power sector gas burn growth of 12%(or 8 bcm)for the f

299、ull year of 2023.Growth in gas-fired power generation is expected to average at over 12%per year between 2022-2026.Wind and solar capacity additions are expected keep the share of renewables in the power mix on a strong growth path,partially conditioning the upside to gas for power generation.In the

300、 context of slower economic expansion and a high gas price environment,potential downside risk remains as an emphasis on ensuring energy security and stabilising economic growth could outweigh government policy on coal-to-gas switching,which was among the key factors behind gas market dynamism in pa

301、st years.However,loosening global gas market fundamentals as a wave of LNG supply capacity comes online in 2026 could spur growth in price-responsive demand segments,notably in the power sector.Residential and commercial,and transport Gas use in the residential and commercial sectors grew strongly d

302、uring the 2017 to 2021 period,boosted by the long-standing policy to replace domestic coal-fired boilers notably across Chinas northern provinces as part of an action plan to improve air quality through reduced pollution.However,as the share of coal in domestic applications falls and cost considerat

303、ions weigh on targeted subsidies aimed at favouring gas,growth in residential and commercial gas demand is expected to slow in the short to medium term,averaging 5%during 2022-2026.Still,incremental demand in the sector reaches 18 bcm,supported by the continued expansion of gas transmission and dist

304、ribution systems.Transport sector gas demand is set to grow by an average of 6%per year,buoyed by gas transmission network use and road transport.Taken together,transport,residential and commercial demand are expected to account for 22%of total Chinese gas demand growth over the 2022-2026 period.Gas

305、 Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|53 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Medium-term market outlook Chinas natural gas demand growth is set to slow over the forecast period IEA.CC BY 4.0.0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 50020192020202120222023202420252026bcmIndustryResidential and commercialPower generationOthersForecastNa

306、tural gas demand by sector,China,2019-2026 Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|54 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Medium-term market outlook India and emerging Asian gas markets:Price-sensitive growthAdverse gas market conditions in 2022 drove a contraction in gas demand in India and emerging Asian markets3 down by 6%and

307、4%respectively as all-time-high gas prices particularly hit gas consumption in the power and industrial sectors.While a recovery in overall demand is already underway in 2023,thanks in part to lower LNG import prices,diverging factors will drive the recovery in the short to medium term across these

308、markets.India Following a steep decline in 2022,Indias natural gas demand is forecast to return to a growth trajectory,supported by a positive economic outlook,improving gas supply availability and continued gas market opening reforms.The Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board(PNGRB),the downstr

309、eam regulator,set a levelised unified tariff for domestic natural gas pipelines starting from 1 April 2023.The new tariff system will benefit consumers located far from domestic gas supply sources and/or LNG terminals.The Indian natural gas market is heavily skewed toward industrial demand,which acc

310、ounted for over 70%of net incremental gas demand during 2017 to 2021 and represented over half of annual demand in 2022.Gas demand for power generation,3 Bangladesh,Indonesia,Malaysia,Myanmar,Pakistan,Philippines,Thailand and Viet Nam.although notably smaller than industrial demand,also remains a ke

311、y driver of price-responsive demand in India.Total demand fell by 6%in 2022 as a tight global gas market reduced power sector gas burn by nearly a quarter and abruptly slowed industrial demand growth to just 2%.In 2023 gas demand has started to recover,driven by gains in both the industrial and powe

312、r sectors as lower prices have eased pressure on price-sensitive segments of the economy.Natural gas demand is expected to grow by 4%in 2023.Indias natural gas demand is set to grow by an average annual rate of over 8%in the 2022-2026 period,adding over 20 bcm of incremental demand.Industry is set t

313、o remain the largest contributor to this growth,accounting for close to 40%of the total increase.A positive economic outlook(GDP growth is expected to average close to 7%per year during 2023-2026)and priority allocation for certain industrial segments will help the largest gas-consuming sectors rebo

314、und from lacklustre growth in 2022-2023.The fertiliser sector is set to be a key driver behind Indias growing industrial gas demand,as the country aims to phase out urea imports by the end of 2025.Indias conventional urea production Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|55 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Medium-term market

315、outlook capacity is expected to increase by over 6 Mtpa by 2025,which could translate into almost 5 bcm of incremental gas demand.Following its steep decline in 2022,gas-to-power demand is expected to recover during the forecast period.Preliminary data indicate that gas burn in the power sector rose

316、 by to 20%y-o-y in the first eight months of 2023 amid more favourable natural gas price levels.Despite continuing renewable capacity additions,gas-to-power demand is expected to grow at an average of 15%per year between 2022 and 2026 as capacity factors improve at existing gas plants in response to

317、 growing power demand.Development of the distribution network and a continued push to favour gas in household applications are expected to drive average annual growth of 7%in residential and commercial gas use during 2024-2026.Emerging Asia Natural gas demand across emerging Asian markets remained b

318、roadly stable in the period 2017 to 2021.The power sector accounted for approximately half of total gas demand in this period,while the industrial sector has been the one to counter the trend of stagnating demand.In 2022 high gas prices hit the power sector,trimming gas demand for electricity genera

319、tion by 6%.A more favourable price environment is expected to support a 3%rebound in 2023,a precursor to the growth expected in the medium term.Dynamic economic drivers and population growth point to robust short-term demand fundamentals in emerging Asia.Natural gas demand is forecast to grow at an

320、average rate of 5%per year between 2022 and 2026,with over 50%of incremental demand concentrated in Bangladesh,Pakistan and Thailand.This comes on the back of a severe demand contraction in Bangladesh and Pakistan in 2022 given their strong sensitivity to imported gas prices.Growing electricity requ

321、irements across the region and policy support in key markets to limit greenhouse gas emissions should lead to increased gas penetration in electricity production,even as renewable power investments progress,placing the power sector as the primary driver of gas demand growth.Gas use for power generat

322、ion accounts for nearly 60%of incremental consumption over the forecast period,and nearly 70%of this power sector uptick is concentrated in Thailand,Pakistan,Indonesia and Malaysia.Industrial demand led by fertilisers and light industry makes up the bulk of the remaining gas demand growth in the out

323、look period,with the biggest increments expected in Bangladesh,Indonesia,Malaysia,Pakistan and Thailand.Residential and commercial demand,along with transport applications,make relatively minor gains.Gas Market Report,Q4-2023 PAGE|56 IEA.CC BY 4.0.Medium-term market outlook Natural gas demand in Ind

324、ia and emerging Asia is set to expand by over 20%during 2022-2026 IEA.CC BY 4.0.0 50 100 150 200 250 300 35020192020202120222023202420252026bcmIndiaThailandIndonesiaMalaysiaPakistanBangladeshOther emerging Asian marketsForecastNatural gas demand,India and emerging Asia,2022-2026 Gas Market Report,Q4

325、-2023 PAGE|57 Medium-term market outlook IEA.CC BY 4.0.Global gas production growth is set to slow in the medium termNatural gas production is expected to expand by close to 6%(or 240 bcm)by 2026 from 2022.North America and the Middle East are forecast to account for almost 80%of the net increase in

326、 global gas output during this period,while Russias natural gas production is set to remain well below the record levels reached in 2021.The feedgas supply requirements of LNG export projects are foreseen to account for over 55%of the net increase in global gas output in the forecast period,reflecti

327、ng strong growth in LNG trade and an increasingly globalised gas market.In North America,natural gas production rose by 4%(or close to 50 bcm)in 2022,driven by strong domestic demand growth and the continued ramp-up of of LNG exports from the United States.Shale gas output in the United States grew

328、by an impressive 5%(or 40 bcm),driving up overall US gas production to over 1 tcm for the first time in the nations history.This strong growth continued during Q1-Q3 2023,when North Americas gas output increased by an estimated 4%(or 30 bcm)y-o-y,primarily supported by expanding upstream activity in

329、 the vast shale plays of the United States.Natural gas production growth in North America is expected to slow during the forecast period to 1.8%per year during 2023-2026.This moderate growth trajectory is reflective of declining domestic gas demand in Canada and the United States.The bulk of increme

330、ntal gas supply is set to feed North Americas rapidly expanding LNG liquefaction fleet,with the regions LNG exports expected to increase by 50%(or 55 bcm)2023 and 2026.In Eurasia,natural gas production fell by 10%(or over 90 bcm)in 2022 due to the steep drop in Russias piped gas supplies to Europe a

331、nd continued declines in Kazakh and Uzbek gas production.The downward trend continued in the first eight months of 2023,with Russias gas output down by 10%(or almost 45 bcm)y-o-y and Uzbekistan recording a similar 10%decline(3 bcm)amid deteriorating upstream activity in the country.Eurasian gas prod

332、uction is expected to recover from its 2023 lows and grow at an average rate of 2.5%per year in 2023-2026,primarily driven by export-oriented projects in Russia and Turkmenistan aimed at China.Despite the gradual recovery in Russian production,output is expected to remain 11%(or 85 bcm)below 2021s r

333、ecord levels.In the Middle East,natural gas output rose by an estimated 3%(or 20 bcm)in 2022,primarily driven by expanding gas demand in the industrial and power sectors of Iran and Saudi Arabia.The regions gas production is expected to expand by close to 15%(or 100 bcm)by 2026 compared with 2022.This strong growth is largely supported by the growing domestic demand in Iran and Saudi Arabia,as wel